Watched your last video with my Dad this morning! We both think that you are the smartest Canadian real estate agent on TH-cam.. Thank you so much for your honesty and knowledge
Great to see a real estate agent who is trying to put real content and is not all up in air. Keep up the good work of providing this valuable content to us.
Great work! Thank you for putting all these numbers and graphs together and explaining it for us. This is perfect for people who watch the market but don’t have the time to gather and comb through data.
Thank you for keeping us updated. I used to watch multiple TH-cam channels until I found you. As you say, you are very honest and professional. I have not missed your single video since last May.
Simply the best RE info right here on this page folks. I’ve subd and liked all your vids. U are a professional and an honest RE agent. Tell it like it is. Love it. Thanks for the detailed graphs
You're giving buyers hope to go back to normal markets and normal prices, as usual excellent feed back, analysis and updates on the latest news and articles, I love all the charting that you display also .. I agree with your views and as much as the rent is too high, I'm gonna wait a bit longer before jumping into a buy at this time unless a good satisfactory deal comes along... I appreciate your time and effort doing these videos as I wish to see more per week from you (a bit more info about Ottawa would be awesome if possible!!) ! thank you so much and God bless
@@DTrent-uy1wl Not even mentioned the only driver of real estate prices in Canada is on bended knees in China. Should real estate implode in China contagion will spread to Ontario and British Columbia which will bring prices down to local incomes which is a long, long way down.
Hey Jon, this is a great non biased and well informed and thought out analysis of they market and trends . As we know , psychology precedes data . In my mind , this is like no other market situation ever, and therefore so hard to do a straight line comparison. People's trust in gov't and the world turmoil has a huge effect on actions. Keep up the insightful work . You are a very big asset to us.
Great video, thinking the rest of Canada price drops are still to happen and are just a month or two behind Ontario. Prairies likely are an exception as they didn't see the crazy run up as the rest of Canada did. But as Ontario price drops continue at a slower rate I think the rest of Canada, especially Atlantic Canada there's more to come with steeper declines. Thanks again for a fact based video
I sure appreciate the honesty and strait talk. Other RE agents on TH-cam use double talk or word salad - it just makes them look greasy. If I were looking for RE agent I would choose one like this.
when homes go up x3 in your city, i don't think this is a cute sellers vs buyers game... Being completely priced out of home ownership in the span of 3 years is debilitating. No one under 30 can afford a home without the bank of mom and dad.
We're in the same boat. I literally researched the type of house I wanted 4 years ago and made a plan to aggressively save. I even factored in an extra 30k. The same homes I was looking at have doubled. Its straight BS at this point.
@@KeatonDee income level, bills, savings per month, age, etc. Sure there are some people making some crazy money and saving if for a downpayment but it's not feasible for the average person to buy a house anymore.
I have studied a little bit of technical analysis. Usually ( emphasizing usually), when the prices hit 38.2% retracement, there is a sizable bounce (which is anemic) and then prices drop sharply to 50% or to 68.2% retracement levels.
Charts aside everything depends on what happens to real estate in China. Home prices in Canada will fall back to the local's income if it all goes down in China.
@@parkerbohnn If the Chinese economy crashes, our "liberal" prime minister will open the doors to fleeing wealthy Chinese which would jack up the prices here. Just one more scenario to consider.
Remember a crash always starts slowly. It's like domino's. Domino's start slowly and speed up over its falling. Just like the charts are showing a slow start it will look worse as each month shows. NO ONE KNOWS WHEN THE BOTTOM WILL HIT. House's were severely over priced !!!!!!
Thank you for your videos, they are amazing! We look forward to them every Tuesday! We have been waiting to buy bc we luckily have that option to hold off and I noticed that a few houses we were interested in sold within the past week so it makes me nervous that we will face competition if we don't act now... or maybe some FOMO. I would love to hear your thoughts on this. TiA!
If you buy now you will be buying into a declining market, your house will most likely be worth less in 6-12 months, this along with higher interest rates makes it a bad time to buy. I stick by my market indicators from last video. You need to see unemployment and mortgage arrears spike. Everything else is just noise until then. Hope this helps
I had the exact same feeling so I completely understand you. I’ve been seeing some of my favourite sell as well. I don’t like those competitive buying environments so I’d rather secure than to ride it out, but my agent said not to rush, many will need to sell in a few more months and prices will fall further. Unless there’s a fantastic deal, I’m going to wait it out more.
More and more good houses will be on the market in the next few months as the interest rates rise and probably the unemployment rate will jump too. This is just the start of the decline.
Even at 40% off a $2m home in Vancouver it’ll still be $1.2m so I’m not sure what all these people are going on about. Just buy when you can and within your means, plan for interest rate increases, etc etc. Set your housing costs while you still can, a lot of immigrants are coming to Vancouver and still driving up costs regardless of what the economy does.
@@KeatonDee I know the Chinese inside-out none of them buy into falling markets of any type real estate or anything else. In fact they're one of the last buyers when the housing cycle flip-flops back up.
Amazing content once again Jon. It shows how much effort you put in your research. Thank you for that. Love your graphs and how you use trading tools and indicators to predict house prices. I thought these indicators don’t apply house prices due to their nature but as of now your prices are going in the direction of your indicators. Many people will have their renewal in 2022 end of year or mid 2023 as they all bought during 2017-18 boom. How do you expect that to affect prices if at all?
I think it will add to the declines. Owners will have less cash due to higher debt servicing costs, on top of that most investors won't be able to take any more equity to reinvest for other properties due to price declines which will result in less investors able to scoop up pre-construction etc. Also many investors are still waiting to close on new builds, both single family and condo's. They bought these properties prior to the interest rate hikes, they may not qualify when closing on them or have much higher mortgage costs etc. I saw this in 2018 when the market slowed and investors were unable to close. It's a very dynamic situation, all of which has negative outcomes for leveraged buyers/investors.
hi Jon, can you comment on the first graph on the latest Better Dwelling article? It looks like major price reductions happened in GTA and some Ontario areas while other Canadian cities remained intact. I can surely say that Montreal had cooled off but there isn't any major downward pressure prices. Having said that, are we really in a NATIONAL correction? Am I missing something? Thx
Housing corrections take months and years. All data is pointing towards downward pressures and movements. Montreal lagged behind Ontario but you will see there very soon.
Hi Jon, Another great video thanks for the custom graph work. The question related to the 5 year fixed mortgage premiums being higher than the 5 year CAD bond rate is because of the yield inversion. Typically banks use the BoC prime rate and apply their premium. In the case of yield inversion the short end of the curve is higher than the long end making the interest received on loans over a 5 year period less than those on a 1. Banks during normal times make money by borrowing at the short end (2 year or less) and lending at the middle (5 year for Cad Mortages) or long end ( 30 year for US) Typically when the 10 year is lower than 2 year it is a good recession indicator (not 100% but over 75% based on historical data) with in 12-24 months of date of inversion. This should create a risk premium plus the banks need to always make money so they are likely basing their premium off the one year at 3.33% vs the 5 year at 2.75%. Depending on the mortgage company premiums will vary but its important to understand the mortgage product because not all the terms are flexible especially those discounted. I agree with your outlook in terms of housing prices going down to the mean price and am interested to see if price decreases continue to increase in Aug. It would be good to better understand the trigger rates of the new variable fixed rate products. Is the data available to realtors? on the number of these products ? or the trigger rates?. I would see this as a potential vulnerability depending on the number of these used and the rates in which they would trigger. I also think you see a lag between unemployment increases and home price declines is that typically people try to hold on to their house and use savings or other financial means before selling as well as the selling process typically takes a month ( pre listing discussions, prep, plus average listing days). One thing to watch also is the mortgage backed security bond market. I believe the BoC is trying to reduce their asset balance (Quantitative Tightening) which should also increase rates as BoC is no longer a major buyer holding them down.
You're forgetting Biden's "slight of hand" which will end once the midterm elections are over. Sharply higher inflation at the beginning of 2023 to compensate for the artificial gas price drop the fake reduction of the gasoline tax to make Biden look better this November.😬
Fantastic video. Just a question on inventory levels. In London,ON, I have witnessed large amounts of terminations and relistings of the same property for price adjustments over the past couple of months. Would this significantly contribute to this rise in inventory we have been seeing this summer? If so, could this be obscuring the true level of inventory in all of the data related to the number of listings? Just due to a duplicate/triplicates of the same listing under different MLS numbers in the same month?
Great question and points. On our system if the same agent cancels and relists a property it doesn't count as a new listing, but will count if another agent lists it. That being said, since the start of my career in a balanced or buyers market there has always been listings getting cancelled and re-listed so it wouldn't necessarily skew the numbers anymore today that it did 5-10 years ago. One should look at months of inventory and homes for sale data to get an accurate picture of inventory. I like this question so I think I'll answer further in the next video. Thanks
One of the most honest realtors. Respect. Quick question. What do you think is a reason why suburban Vancouver hasn't gone down as much as suburban Ontario? I am in Fraswr Valley and we are still 10% above July 2021, however in suburban Ontario we are almost same as July 2021 prices, though the decline is almost 20% from the peak here as well. Is it because Ontario prices started rising before BC? I was just checking some stats, from Jan 2020 to Jan 2021 the avg detached and TH prices in Fraser Valley went up by 20% while between Jan 2021 and Jan 2022 it went up by 42%. Those are crazy numbers.
@@DTrent-uy1wl Fraser Valley went up 60-70% between Feb 2020 and Feb 2022, that's probably the steepest anywhere. It's just crazy. It's beyond unaffordable. Not sure if it will go down that much but my guess is another 20% down from here which should be about 30-35% from peak. Hope it goes down even further 😀. Housing is for people to have a roof over their heads at an affordable price and not for investors and speculation.
@@DTrent-uy1wl Let's see and hope. Was just reading the news on BoC. From the words of the governor it seems 75 basis points hike is almost confirmed for Sept 7. That will be huge. I think a lot of owners will be very very close to trigger rate after that.
Jon Thank you for that. What baffles me is that even after this shock in the market and the general awareness we see, the home values have not even come down to the pre-2020 value even now! To me, it only shows how adamant the investors (rather the betting crowd) still are and the dilemma they are in !! I have one question---- who are the sellers and speculators who made money during the last 2 years of manic selling? OR is there no such group and did all of them burn themselves?
I can partially answer this. There are a number of wealthier Canadians who sold their assets in the past year and took their cash to live in another country with a lower COL and lower taxes. This was mainly spurned by the actions of the Canadian government over the past 2 years as well as their seeming willingness (aided by Canada’s big banks) to freeze or confiscate citizens assets. Those with considerable assets became uncomfortable with the idea that the majority of their money was sitting in a country where the government may not respects its citizens rights or their rights to assets. So that money has left the country And others who do not manage their money well - have likely overextended themselves by manic buying frenzies where they pour any extra cash into more properties. That of course, will not end well now that a downturn has begun and interest rates have risen quickly, it is very easy to become underwater and lose many if not all properties to foreclosure/bankruptcy. Having been through these cycles a few times, I would caution young people to be aware we are just in the beginning stages and things will get worse before they become better. If you are close to the edge, take action and sell what you can now before it is all lost. Unemployment numbers will be brutal in the coming months as you can hear anywhere how many big companies are trimming a minimum of 10% of staff, including high earning executives. The last time we had this type of housing crash, we were also not dealing with high inflation (possible hyperinflation) at the same time. A lot of factors are coming together and it will not be over anytime soon so act carefully and be realistic.
They haven't "broken" the speculators yet. Most of them hold low end properties which are holding up the best price wise so far. Should prices keep on falling the bottom will fall out of the low end of the market as the speculators unload amass.🏆
Hi Jon, love your channel. I'm from Windsor and I can't say prices are dropping. Multiple bids have greatly slowed down, some houses are going for asking but that's it. What can cause prices to really fall ? When we just had an article come out saying Windsor would need 30k houses built to meet demand.
Hey, I don't have direct access to windows data but CREA stats show sales are significantly down and prices have already dropped over $100K from the peak. Here's the link. creastats.crea.ca/board/wind Since Windsor is further out from toronto that most other suburban ontario communities it will take longer to react but it's definitely trending down just like the rest of the country. This fall and winter will be the true test of the markets.
The last of the baby boomers is now just retired. Not good news at all for Windsor home prices. Many are simply now leaving Canada instead of relocating to cheaper cities. Portugal seems to be one of the hotspots.
Love your work...I believe from past charts I have studied that we will revert below the mean as well but not in the next 3 months, there will be some rebound months but over a period of years this will take place. I am factoring in a coming World recession from a macro view.
I see hyperinflation coming. Virtually every variable points to hyperinflation and the supplanting of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency as the only cure.
Thanks for the great content! It is great to see that you actually incorporate feedback/questions from your viewers. With the upcoming BOC announcement on Sep 7 and a baseline increase of 50 basis points to 3% what is your expectation on the effects of trigger rate for variable rate mortgages (since most of the mortgages issued in 2020 through 2022 are variable). I think it will be interesting to see (national level and GTA) at what % of liquidation would the inventories double. As per my rough calculation even if the sales stay flat at 5,000/month, in GTA the market needs to see 7.5% liquidation (based on Feb 2020 to Aug 2022 sales) for the inventories to double. For example, if 200,000 homes (~6,500 sales per month * 30 months) were sold in GTA from Feb 2020 to Aug 2022 and if the current absorption rate stays flat at 5,000 units/month, with 3 month inventory levels we could potentially see an increase of 13% listing for every 1% liquidation. Off course my numbers are guestimates. It will be great if you can spend sometime to show models on how this could impact the market. Everybody thinks there should be a recession with significant white collar job cuts for the housing market to come to mean reversion but do you think trigger rates will show us a teaser of a recession like situation for the housing market?
That's a good question. I don't know how many mortgages will be affected by trigger rates and what the numbers look like in a trigger situation, like how much would someones mortgage increase etc. It's hard to find info but I do watch the mortgage arrears and expect to see them start to increase in the coming months
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Going to comment here as a Seller: Been in the market for 10 days and have gotten lowballs (my listing price is low and expectation is at least 200k less from the peak which is more than the average in my region) *the home wouldve fetched at 1.35-1.4 at the peak, price expectation is 1.050 to 1.1. Am I out to lunch? I think not. Especially when the home shows well as all the feedback has indicated Somehow everyone thinks they can start buying detached homes for the price of townhouses. Thankfully I can wait it out and opt not to sell, but some agents are wasting their clients' time doing all these viewings travelling from afar, going in midday, giving them a glimmer of hope. God forbid an entity as big as Blackstone steps in and starts on a spending spree. Theyll be renting forever.
from a buyer's perspective: it's clearly a declining market; prices might fall another 10% (or more) from here and come back in one year? two years? 5 yrs? If i'm putting 10-20% down, i'm not risking 50-100% of my equity. so yeah, i'm going to lowball only. Perhaps, there's also the greed factor that I'm trying to get the lowest price possible but right now, the buyers that can also wait have that power. the few deals that are getting done are the motivated buyers/sellers. additionally, the percent of ppl with 100-200K saved and can afford these monthly payments is finite and falling as well.
also, stop comparing to the peak. that was insane. just bc it's "justified" from the peak, buyers don't care about that. i'm not using those prices as "valuation" baselines
I think you have to consider how much prices went up from 2020 to Feb 2022. And that was following 20 years of almost uninterrupted rising prices. It would seem entirely reasonable that prices would revert to where they were before the historically low interest rates kicked in in 2020 and the FOMO craziness took hold.
@@GuansCorner the thing is if buyers are already pricing in the future rate hikes and declines, no seller in their right mind would even consider that especially those like myself who arent desparate Ive gotten 3 offers, 2 were outright declined because theyre pricing in what most Bears think is March 2023 pricing. 1 is still persistent This becomes a pipe dream for you and the others. If you arent coming up to the current market conditions then your efforts wont amount to anything If your agent is smart he/she will know who the desparate ones are but it's not everyone. That's a wrong assumption.
@@fjskj6529 just wait .. they will either pivot and go after gdp and change inflation expectations , that along with a potential war ... then you'll see serious supply shortage and money printing.... if ppl don't get in soon they won't be able to come 2023 ... imo .... remember it's " you'll own nothing and be happy " it's not well make it affordable and you'll think us later lol🤣
Both condos and single family have increased approx 2.5% a month for the first 3-4 months of the year, so I would expect at least the same rate of decline in the next 3 months since they have already started falling. So approx 10-15% decline from the April high by end of October.
As a seller, we sold at exactly the right time, just before the increase in interest rates - so happy with your take on it, that inventory and prices will be in our favour when we go to buy.
What are you saying buddy? High interest rates are not favoring buyers, only cash buyers. I go to look at real estate web pages and see no drops in prices in Toronto. The houses you can see for under a mill are the worst non safe parts of town. They still post high, but stay longer on the market, and are then taken off, as sellers still don't want to accept the fact they they will not get top dollar any more. Give it another year and a few interest hikes, and things maybe change more drastically, again majorly in favor of the buyers with large amounts of cash deposit.
Interest rates are favouring buyers by reducing house prices, once the rates come back down in a couple of years it will be win win for buyers with low rates and lower prices.
What was the outcome of the listing you refused to take in your earlier video? I’m sure a lot of people want to know because you described an actual real experience. Thank you as always for the hard work and insight.
Wanted to share & get your thoughts if any.. I think looking at the CAD 5yr yield, it looks headed up towards 3.90%. And about sellers pulling aside, my view is while certainly they’ll be a good portion who can afford to do so, the 7-8% of recent multiple property buyers (flippers) they are doing the standard “it’ll come back” and like any bad trade they cannot psychologically face taking the loss- until they’re margin called (which may occur in Sept where 75bps is my base case).. please do share any thoughts
Slight of hand by Biden down in America to make things look good before the midterm elections this November. Once these midterms are over inflation will take a second leg up at the very beginning of 2023. Oil and gasoline will see massive increases in price. Remember they're all criminals in America and the midterms are right around the corner.
Thanks for the video!! Great info as always!! I made a bet with my co worker that average house prices will be lower on January 2023 than today. What do you think are the odds of me winning the bet? Thanks
65 percent as prices could see sucker buying or a bull trap with the midterms this November. Prices could actually rise late this year only to fall hard at the start of 2023 as inflation returns and interest rates take a second leg up this coming January.
@@parkerbohnn thanks for the insight. We are looking to purchase a house maybe end of next year. Hopefully we can time it right or at least get in at a good price.
Jon, really appreciate the your honest professional assessment on the housing market as it's hard to find. Q) I'm from Fraser Valley Chilliwack BC and I've been investing in silver and gold (bullion & stocks) and waiting for the right moment to sell it and buy revenue generating real estate. Do you have any predictions as to when you think the ratio between the two would be most favourable for me? ...For instance in 1980 you could buy a median home in US for 1000 oz silver... I would just like to hear your opinion as I think your a honest pro. Thanks buddy.
I'm a heavy buyer of gold and silver bars as the U.S. dollar tops out in the next year. Silver could see a once in a lifetime run as hyperinflation grips America in the next several years and the U.S. dollar turns to confetti. The Canadian dollar and Aussie dollar should see a huge bull run in the next few years sending both to lifetime highs against the U.S. dollar.😁
Hey, I did a video comparing real estate to gold. Here’s the link Let's Compare Real Estate to Real Money. 2022 Canadian Housing Market th-cam.com/video/DORKkIMOnvY/w-d-xo.html
Even if a house in Vancouver drops from $2M down to $1M, it is still ridiculously over priced in my opinion. No house is worth anything close to even $1M, again imo. The biggest waste of money spending that much on a place to sleep, cook, eat and use social media.
Great analysis again. John what is your projection on new home prices 6 months down the road keeping in mind inflation and developers who might not be very keen to develop land.
Tears as they have no buyers as in the Chinese have stopped buying any new stock. New home prices should fall bout 70 percent from the February peak without the Chinese in the market.
I'm guessing builders will try to sell for current prices but sales will dry up and they will try and wait it out. Many won't be able to wait and will fold
@@jonflynn The Chinese don't buy into falling markets no matter how far they fall so no one will be buying any new stock. Prices of new housing stock would have to drop about 75 percent for the locals that aren't Chinese to get a mortgage.
I'm still analyzing the latest data..... but it appears the GTA is heading into the toilet without a bottom in sight yet ? This could get really ugly into/through 2023..... let's see on Sept 7th where the front loading on cpi inflation is ?
Since you are based in the Niagara Region, can you give some predictions/projections for what you expect to happen in Niagara in the next 6 to 24 months. Great job on the videos by the way.
We have seen big gains, some of the biggest percentage wise in Canada so we will most likely see some of the biggest losses too. I think the rate of declines will slow from what we've already seen so far but will remain consistent for the next 1-2 years until everything plays out and we find a bottom.
@@jonflynn Hi Jon - Great Videos. Can you do a video specific to Niagara since that is where you primarily focus. Would like to see the ups/downs/future projections of Niagara Falls, St Catharine's, Fonthill/Welland, Fort Erie, NOTL, etc. The prices in these areas are still astronomically high, especially in a bedroom community such as Fonthill. When do you anticipate the bottom to hit in these areas? And what stage are most in at the moment? Denial?
Most Variable rate mortgages will trigger after the BoC meeting on Sept 7th. The fall will be a blood bath. In my opinion, the BoC Overnight rate will be 4% MINIMUM by E.O.Y. Strap in, going to be a dark Q4.
That'll be the start with reduced spending for a lot of people. Then companies that tried not to fire people over Christmas will have to start in the first quarter as payment on outstanding debts continue to grow and sales for many companies will continue with to drop.
Great video as always Jon. One thing that really caught my attention was how coincidental is it that CREA forgot to have the July Data on their National Average Sales Blockchart and that you had to add it yourself. This could just be a coincidence, but I have had this theory that both CREA, TREBB & CMHC have been presenting data in a manner thats not painting a true picture. Data can be interpreted many ways but it still has to be presented accurately. Also, if you listen to any official from these agencies and they almost sound like they're dismissive of the fact that things are starting to get ugly. I'm not saying they should spread fear but they shouldnt blatantly not dismiss the risks involved. It almost feels like they're in unison with the local Realtor in calming people saying this is a minor blip. I could be totally wrong but this wouldnt be the first time agencies and institutions have cooked data a certain way that benefits them, 08-09 is a fine example of such, where Ratings Agencies, Mortgage Agencies and Realtors were in on the act. Something to think about I guess.
There's no more baby boomers to retire so home prices will tumble there. The last two years saw the last of the baby boomers retire. Many sold out in Ontario or British Columbia and relocated to PEI. Note only the poorer ones as taxes are ominous out east.
Denial it's not just seller who are in denial but real estate agents who still want big commission, from what I've read and hear some real estate agents drop there commission rate from 5% to 2% an some seller were offering 1% sale commission, agents were motivate to get the highs price on the houses in which to get the same commission as a 5% rate, and are still motivate to push to keep high prices even if there rate is 5% Paris, Brantford, Caledonia, Niagara Falls, Hamilton have still not seen price drop like in Toronto and area
When interest rates rise, bond prices fall, with longer term bonds most sensitive to rate changes. This is because longer-term bonds have a greater duration ie more coupon payments than shorter term bonds. The short term and long term bonds have inverted because of this. I would say old school economists would say interest rates need to rise to the inflation rate to drag inflation down but I'd say that's clearly over zealous. Imagine the BOC interest rate increasing to 8-9% now? Today 4-4.5% is seen as a drag. We are at 2.5% so everybody don't be surprised when there's 2 more rate hikes this yr. 0.75% on Sept 7th. Using Fibs!! Nice. You could expand your Fib range though. Using 2020 as a bottom might be a little too conservative. If this is a proper correction, it will overcorrect 5-10% past the long term trend line.
Long term corporate bonds BBB+ and above are not seeing buying at all. In fact they're going the opposite direction of the Bank of Canada ten year and 30 year rates.
Thanks for the info, I was thinking about using data further back to 2015 for the fib but trying to give the benefit of the doubt to the market, but I do expect the last 2 years of gains to get wiped out so yes you're correct. I might redo with longer time frame.
@@jonflynn Yes. You could even treat the move from 2010 as the next leg up which would broaden your Fib range. As in the market had 2 moves. One from 1999/2000 to 2009. Then another from 2010 until start of 2022. That kind of fits the real estate cycle doesn’t it?
@@cultoffreedom9068 not desperate at all. Just educated and not a dumb sheep that believes prices will only go up forever just because we have a fictitious supply shortage and 500K new immigrants every year 😂.
@@thewealthymarketer wait for lock downs and war lol....... then what Budd... you think it's smooth sailing from here out ? Now thats sheep talk ... the money printer isn't going to stop .. the ponzi scheme will continue..... lmk if you Wana make 100k side bet we can use a 3rd party
@@cultoffreedom9068 once we get locked down and WW3 hits our home prices will double or even triple, right bud? Yeah bud. The more bad things that happen the richer Canadian Homeowners will get because everyone will want to run and hide in cold and ignorant Canada 😂.
House prices are still high in northern Ontario. Many still going for over asking. Most are old and not worth the huge asking prices. Not to mention the black flies, deer flies etc. Not the best place to live if you can't deal with bugs and mice looking to come in for the winter.
we were very fortunate to sell in Feb in the BC market and move to the prairies.....no mortgage and much higher quality of life. it would be great to see some data on similar stories of families moving from BC and Ont markets to prairie provinces.
Renting is way cheaper and less risky than buying right now. Landlords will be forced to sell before buyers are forced to buy given the current trajectory of the market and interest rates.
Watched your last video with my Dad this morning! We both think that you are the smartest Canadian real estate agent on TH-cam.. Thank you so much for your honesty and knowledge
Yes definitely. This is so rare.
My boyfriend watches you everyday lol @paul
Lightyears the smartest.
Thanks for watching and the compliment
A crash much worse 2008 is just around the corner. Ladies and gentlemen please fasten your seatbelts.
Great to see a real estate agent who is trying to put real content and is not all up in air. Keep up the good work of providing this valuable content to us.
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Great work! Thank you for putting all these numbers and graphs together and explaining it for us. This is perfect for people who watch the market but don’t have the time to gather and comb through data.
You’re welcome
Feedback appreciated.👆👆 Wanting more info and insight?
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Thank you for keeping us updated. I used to watch multiple TH-cam channels until I found you. As you say, you are very honest and professional. I have not missed your single video since last May.
Thanks for the feedback and for watching
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Simply the best RE info right here on this page folks. I’ve subd and liked all your vids. U are a professional and an honest RE agent. Tell it like it is. Love it. Thanks for the detailed graphs
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You're giving buyers hope to go back to normal markets and normal prices, as usual excellent feed back, analysis and updates on the latest news and articles, I love all the charting that you display also .. I agree with your views and as much as the rent is too high, I'm gonna wait a bit longer before jumping into a buy at this time unless a good satisfactory deal comes along... I appreciate your time and effort doing these videos as I wish to see more per week from you (a bit more info about Ottawa would be awesome if possible!!) ! thank you so much and God bless
@@DTrent-uy1wl where did you buy your crystal ball 🔮 ? I'd love to have one of my own 🤣
@@DTrent-uy1wl Not even mentioned the only driver of real estate prices in Canada is on bended knees in China. Should real estate implode in China contagion will spread to Ontario and British Columbia which will bring prices down to local incomes which is a long, long way down.
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information shared here is gold, can't blv not many ppl are watching it.. thanks for sharing
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i love tihs guy. all facts, no bs
thanks
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Thanks John. You are really an honest realtor. Great information...!!!
My pleasure!
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Thank you Jon for educating us
It definitely helps to make rational decisions.
Glad it helps
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Finally! Been waiting for an update 🥳
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great charts/numbers and analysis. thank you
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Hey Jon, this is a great non biased and well informed and thought out analysis of they market and trends . As we know , psychology precedes data . In my mind , this is like no other market situation ever, and therefore so hard to do a straight line comparison. People's trust in gov't and the world turmoil has a huge effect on actions. Keep up the insightful work . You are a very big asset to us.
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Great video, thinking the rest of Canada price drops are still to happen and are just a month or two behind Ontario. Prairies likely are an exception as they didn't see the crazy run up as the rest of Canada did. But as Ontario price drops continue at a slower rate I think the rest of Canada, especially Atlantic Canada there's more to come with steeper declines. Thanks again for a fact based video
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Hi Jon, Thank you very much 👍🏻for your great job to update us.
no problem
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I sure appreciate the honesty and strait talk. Other RE agents on TH-cam use double talk or word salad - it just makes them look greasy.
If I were looking for RE agent I would choose one like this.
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when homes go up x3 in your city, i don't think this is a cute sellers vs buyers game...
Being completely priced out of home ownership in the span of 3 years is debilitating. No one under 30 can afford a home without the bank of mom and dad.
@@DTrent-uy1wl I hope so. Can't keep up with this and rent prices + inflation. Generations are being crippled
We're in the same boat. I literally researched the type of house I wanted 4 years ago and made a plan to aggressively save. I even factored in an extra 30k. The same homes I was looking at have doubled. Its straight BS at this point.
Literally bought a 2 bed apartment in Vancouver in January and my wife and I are both 27 and we don’t have the help of our parents.
@@KeatonDee income level, bills, savings per month, age, etc. Sure there are some people making some crazy money and saving if for a downpayment but it's not feasible for the average person to buy a house anymore.
@@KeatonDee You're situation is few and far between. Your experience is not the majority.
I have studied a little bit of technical analysis. Usually ( emphasizing usually), when the prices hit 38.2% retracement, there is a sizable bounce (which is anemic) and then prices drop sharply to 50% or to 68.2% retracement levels.
Charts aside everything depends on what happens to real estate in China. Home prices in Canada will fall back to the local's income if it all goes down in China.
@@parkerbohnn If the Chinese economy crashes, our "liberal" prime minister will open the doors to fleeing wealthy Chinese which would jack up the prices here. Just one more scenario to consider.
Thanks for sharing, great info
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Remember a crash always starts slowly. It's like domino's. Domino's start slowly and speed up over its falling. Just like the charts are showing a slow start it will look worse as each month shows. NO ONE KNOWS WHEN THE BOTTOM WILL HIT. House's were severely over priced !!!!!!
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Good point! Ha! Prices are beyond ridiculous. No house in Vancouver or Toronto is worth $800+K! Just my opinion.
Thank you for your videos, they are amazing! We look forward to them every Tuesday! We have been waiting to buy bc we luckily have that option to hold off and I noticed that a few houses we were interested in sold within the past week so it makes me nervous that we will face competition if we don't act now... or maybe some FOMO. I would love to hear your thoughts on this. TiA!
If you buy now you will be buying into a declining market, your house will most likely be worth less in 6-12 months, this along with higher interest rates makes it a bad time to buy. I stick by my market indicators from last video. You need to see unemployment and mortgage arrears spike. Everything else is just noise until then. Hope this helps
Hold off ...much lower prices coming next year
I had the exact same feeling so I completely understand you. I’ve been seeing some of my favourite sell as well. I don’t like those competitive buying environments so I’d rather secure than to ride it out, but my agent said not to rush, many will need to sell in a few more months and prices will fall further. Unless there’s a fantastic deal, I’m going to wait it out more.
More and more good houses will be on the market in the next few months as the interest rates rise and probably the unemployment rate will jump too. This is just the start of the decline.
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Waiting to 2024 for that %40 Off Housing Sale. Going to be beautiful
Even at 40% off a $2m home in Vancouver it’ll still be $1.2m so I’m not sure what all these people are going on about. Just buy when you can and within your means, plan for interest rate increases, etc etc. Set your housing costs while you still can, a lot of immigrants are coming to Vancouver and still driving up costs regardless of what the economy does.
@@KeatonDee I know the Chinese inside-out none of them buy into falling markets of any type real estate or anything else. In fact they're one of the last buyers when the housing cycle flip-flops back up.
Maybe more
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Amazing content once again Jon. It shows how much effort you put in your research. Thank you for that. Love your graphs and how you use trading tools and indicators to predict house prices. I thought these indicators don’t apply house prices due to their nature but as of now your prices are going in the direction of your indicators. Many people will have their renewal in 2022 end of year or mid 2023 as they all bought during 2017-18 boom. How do you expect that to affect prices if at all?
Good point!!
I think it will add to the declines. Owners will have less cash due to higher debt servicing costs, on top of that most investors won't be able to take any more equity to reinvest for other properties due to price declines which will result in less investors able to scoop up pre-construction etc. Also many investors are still waiting to close on new builds, both single family and condo's. They bought these properties prior to the interest rate hikes, they may not qualify when closing on them or have much higher mortgage costs etc. I saw this in 2018 when the market slowed and investors were unable to close. It's a very dynamic situation, all of which has negative outcomes for leveraged buyers/investors.
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hi Jon, can you comment on the first graph on the latest Better Dwelling article? It looks like major price reductions happened in GTA and some Ontario areas while other Canadian cities remained intact. I can surely say that Montreal had cooled off but there isn't any major downward pressure prices. Having said that, are we really in a NATIONAL correction? Am I missing something? Thx
Housing corrections take months and years. All data is pointing towards downward pressures and movements. Montreal lagged behind Ontario but you will see there very soon.
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Thanks John
no problem, thanks for watching
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Hi Jon, Another great video thanks for the custom graph work. The question related to the 5 year fixed mortgage premiums being higher than the 5 year CAD bond rate is because of the yield inversion. Typically banks use the BoC prime rate and apply their premium. In the case of yield inversion the short end of the curve is higher than the long end making the interest received on loans over a 5 year period less than those on a 1. Banks during normal times make money by borrowing at the short end (2 year or less) and lending at the middle (5 year for Cad Mortages) or long end ( 30 year for US) Typically when the 10 year is lower than 2 year it is a good recession indicator (not 100% but over 75% based on historical data) with in 12-24 months of date of inversion. This should create a risk premium plus the banks need to always make money so they are likely basing their premium off the one year at 3.33% vs the 5 year at 2.75%. Depending on the mortgage company premiums will vary but its important to understand the mortgage product because not all the terms are flexible especially those discounted. I agree with your outlook in terms of housing prices going down to the mean price and am interested to see if price decreases continue to increase in Aug. It would be good to better understand the trigger rates of the new variable fixed rate products. Is the data available to realtors? on the number of these products ? or the trigger rates?. I would see this as a potential vulnerability depending on the number of these used and the rates in which they would trigger. I also think you see a lag between unemployment increases and home price declines is that typically people try to hold on to their house and use savings or other financial means before selling as well as the selling process typically takes a month ( pre listing discussions, prep, plus average listing days). One thing to watch also is the mortgage backed security bond market. I believe the BoC is trying to reduce their asset balance (Quantitative Tightening) which should also increase rates as BoC is no longer a major buyer holding them down.
Excellent and thorough answer, thanks for taking the time.
You're forgetting Biden's "slight of hand" which will end once the midterm elections are over. Sharply higher inflation at the beginning of 2023 to compensate for the artificial gas price drop the fake reduction of the gasoline tax to make Biden look better this November.😬
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Fantastic video. Just a question on inventory levels. In London,ON, I have witnessed large amounts of terminations and relistings of the same property for price adjustments over the past couple of months. Would this significantly contribute to this rise in inventory we have been seeing this summer? If so, could this be obscuring the true level of inventory in all of the data related to the number of listings? Just due to a duplicate/triplicates of the same listing under different MLS numbers in the same month?
Exactly...great point
Yes
Great question and points. On our system if the same agent cancels and relists a property it doesn't count as a new listing, but will count if another agent lists it. That being said, since the start of my career in a balanced or buyers market there has always been listings getting cancelled and re-listed so it wouldn't necessarily skew the numbers anymore today that it did 5-10 years ago. One should look at months of inventory and homes for sale data to get an accurate picture of inventory. I like this question so I think I'll answer further in the next video. Thanks
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Just pressed the like even before watching
😂😂
Yep..same
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One of the most honest realtors. Respect. Quick question. What do you think is a reason why suburban Vancouver hasn't gone down as much as suburban Ontario? I am in Fraswr Valley and we are still 10% above July 2021, however in suburban Ontario we are almost same as July 2021 prices, though the decline is almost 20% from the peak here as well. Is it because Ontario prices started rising before BC? I was just checking some stats, from Jan 2020 to Jan 2021 the avg detached and TH prices in Fraser Valley went up by 20% while between Jan 2021 and Jan 2022 it went up by 42%. Those are crazy numbers.
@@DTrent-uy1wl Fraser Valley went up 60-70% between Feb 2020 and Feb 2022, that's probably the steepest anywhere. It's just crazy. It's beyond unaffordable. Not sure if it will go down that much but my guess is another 20% down from here which should be about 30-35% from peak. Hope it goes down even further 😀. Housing is for people to have a roof over their heads at an affordable price and not for investors and speculation.
@@DTrent-uy1wl Let's see and hope. Was just reading the news on BoC. From the words of the governor it seems 75 basis points hike is almost confirmed for Sept 7. That will be huge. I think a lot of owners will be very very close to trigger rate after that.
Vacant home tax hit British Columbia and all the Chinese money flooded into Ontario in the last 2 years.
They have different market influences.
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Jon Thank you for that. What baffles me is that even after this shock in the market and the general awareness we see, the home values have not even come down to the pre-2020 value even now! To me, it only shows how adamant the investors (rather the betting crowd) still are and the dilemma they are in !!
I have one question---- who are the sellers and speculators who made money during the last 2 years of manic selling? OR is there no such group and did all of them burn themselves?
I can partially answer this. There are a number of wealthier Canadians who sold their assets in the past year and took their cash to live in another country with a lower COL and lower taxes. This was mainly spurned by the actions of the Canadian government over the past 2 years as well as their seeming willingness (aided by Canada’s big banks) to freeze or confiscate citizens assets. Those with considerable assets became uncomfortable with the idea that the majority of their money was sitting in a country where the government may not respects its citizens rights or their rights to assets. So that money has left the country
And others who do not manage their money well - have likely overextended themselves by manic buying frenzies where they pour any extra cash into more properties. That of course, will not end well now that a downturn has begun and interest rates have risen quickly, it is very easy to become underwater and lose many if not all properties to foreclosure/bankruptcy. Having been through these cycles a few times, I would caution young people to be aware we are just in the beginning stages and things will get worse before they become better. If you are close to the edge, take action and sell what you can now before it is all lost. Unemployment numbers will be brutal in the coming months as you can hear anywhere how many big companies are trimming a minimum of 10% of staff, including high earning executives. The last time we had this type of housing crash, we were also not dealing with high inflation (possible hyperinflation) at the same time. A lot of factors are coming together and it will not be over anytime soon so act carefully and be realistic.
@@curiousmd4473 bingo!
Great answer thanks
They haven't "broken" the speculators yet. Most of them hold low end properties which are holding up the best price wise so far. Should prices keep on falling the bottom will fall out of the low end of the market as the speculators unload amass.🏆
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Hi Jon, love your channel. I'm from Windsor and I can't say prices are dropping. Multiple bids have greatly slowed down, some houses are going for asking but that's it. What can cause prices to really fall ? When we just had an article come out saying Windsor would need 30k houses built to meet demand.
Hey, I don't have direct access to windows data but CREA stats show sales are significantly down and prices have already dropped over $100K from the peak. Here's the link.
creastats.crea.ca/board/wind
Since Windsor is further out from toronto that most other suburban ontario communities it will take longer to react but it's definitely trending down just like the rest of the country. This fall and winter will be the true test of the markets.
The last of the baby boomers is now just retired. Not good news at all for Windsor home prices. Many are simply now leaving Canada instead of relocating to cheaper cities. Portugal seems to be one of the hotspots.
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Love your work...I believe from past charts I have studied that we will revert below the mean as well but not in the next 3 months, there will be some rebound months but over a period of years this will take place. I am factoring in a coming World recession from a macro view.
I see hyperinflation coming. Virtually every variable points to hyperinflation and the supplanting of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency as the only cure.
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Thanks for the great content! It is great to see that you actually incorporate feedback/questions from your viewers.
With the upcoming BOC announcement on Sep 7 and a baseline increase of 50 basis points to 3% what is your expectation on the effects of trigger rate for variable rate mortgages (since most of the mortgages issued in 2020 through 2022 are variable). I think it will be interesting to see (national level and GTA) at what % of liquidation would the inventories double. As per my rough calculation even if the sales stay flat at 5,000/month, in GTA the market needs to see 7.5% liquidation (based on Feb 2020 to Aug 2022 sales) for the inventories to double. For example, if 200,000 homes (~6,500 sales per month * 30 months) were sold in GTA from Feb 2020 to Aug 2022 and if the current absorption rate stays flat at 5,000 units/month, with 3 month inventory levels we could potentially see an increase of 13% listing for every 1% liquidation. Off course my numbers are guestimates. It will be great if you can spend sometime to show models on how this could impact the market. Everybody thinks there should be a recession with significant white collar job cuts for the housing market to come to mean reversion but do you think trigger rates will show us a teaser of a recession like situation for the housing market?
That's a good question. I don't know how many mortgages will be affected by trigger rates and what the numbers look like in a trigger situation, like how much would someones mortgage increase etc. It's hard to find info but I do watch the mortgage arrears and expect to see them start to increase in the coming months
Thank you for your comment.. Contact the What'sap line above for more information and advice on investment. I have a new investment plans on crypto investment that is profitable.
Going to comment here as a Seller:
Been in the market for 10 days and have gotten lowballs (my listing price is low and expectation is at least 200k less from the peak which is more than the average in my region)
*the home wouldve fetched at 1.35-1.4 at the peak, price expectation is 1.050 to 1.1. Am I out to lunch? I think not. Especially when the home shows well as all the feedback has indicated
Somehow everyone thinks they can start buying detached homes for the price of townhouses. Thankfully I can wait it out and opt not to sell, but some agents are wasting their clients' time doing all these viewings travelling from afar, going in midday, giving them a glimmer of hope.
God forbid an entity as big as Blackstone steps in and starts on a spending spree. Theyll be renting forever.
from a buyer's perspective: it's clearly a declining market; prices might fall another 10% (or more) from here and come back in one year? two years? 5 yrs? If i'm putting 10-20% down, i'm not risking 50-100% of my equity. so yeah, i'm going to lowball only. Perhaps, there's also the greed factor that I'm trying to get the lowest price possible but right now, the buyers that can also wait have that power. the few deals that are getting done are the motivated buyers/sellers. additionally, the percent of ppl with 100-200K saved and can afford these monthly payments is finite and falling as well.
also, stop comparing to the peak. that was insane. just bc it's "justified" from the peak, buyers don't care about that. i'm not using those prices as "valuation" baselines
I think you have to consider how much prices went up from 2020 to Feb 2022. And that was following 20 years of almost uninterrupted rising prices. It would seem entirely reasonable that prices would revert to where they were before the historically low interest rates kicked in in 2020 and the FOMO craziness took hold.
@@GuansCorner the thing is if buyers are already pricing in the future rate hikes and declines, no seller in their right mind would even consider that especially those like myself who arent desparate
Ive gotten 3 offers, 2 were outright declined because theyre pricing in what most Bears think is March 2023 pricing. 1 is still persistent
This becomes a pipe dream for you and the others. If you arent coming up to the current market conditions then your efforts wont amount to anything
If your agent is smart he/she will know who the desparate ones are but it's not everyone. That's a wrong assumption.
@@fjskj6529 just wait .. they will either pivot and go after gdp and change inflation expectations , that along with a potential war ... then you'll see serious supply shortage and money printing.... if ppl don't get in soon they won't be able to come 2023 ... imo .... remember it's " you'll own nothing and be happy " it's not well make it affordable and you'll think us later lol🤣
Thank you for all. What do you think montreal houses prices will be in the next 3 months
Both condos and single family have increased approx 2.5% a month for the first 3-4 months of the year, so I would expect at least the same rate of decline in the next 3 months since they have already started falling. So approx 10-15% decline from the April high by end of October.
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As a seller, we sold at exactly the right time, just before the increase in interest rates - so happy with your take on it, that inventory and prices will be in our favour when we go to buy.
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What are you saying buddy? High interest rates are not favoring buyers, only cash buyers. I go to look at real estate web pages and see no drops in prices in Toronto. The houses you can see for under a mill are the worst non safe parts of town. They still post high, but stay longer on the market, and are then taken off, as sellers still don't want to accept the fact they they will not get top dollar any more. Give it another year and a few interest hikes, and things maybe change more drastically, again majorly in favor of the buyers with large amounts of cash deposit.
Interest rates are favouring buyers by reducing house prices, once the rates come back down in a couple of years it will be win win for buyers with low rates and lower prices.
@@jonflynn That's a good question. Are the interest rates going to go down in a couple of years, or stay high for the next 10 years?
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What was the outcome of the listing you refused to take in your earlier video? I’m sure a lot of people want to know because you described an actual real experience. Thank you as always for the hard work and insight.
it didn't sell last time I check but I will update in the next video, thanks for the reminder
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Wanted to share & get your thoughts if any.. I think looking at the CAD 5yr yield, it looks headed up towards 3.90%. And about sellers pulling aside, my view is while certainly they’ll be a good portion who can afford to do so, the 7-8% of recent multiple property buyers (flippers) they are doing the standard “it’ll come back” and like any bad trade they cannot psychologically face taking the loss- until they’re margin called (which may occur in Sept where 75bps is my base case).. please do share any thoughts
Slight of hand by Biden down in America to make things look good before the midterm elections this November. Once these midterms are over inflation will take a second leg up at the very beginning of 2023. Oil and gasoline will see massive increases in price. Remember they're all criminals in America and the midterms are right around the corner.
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Can you please provide an update on NB and PEI?
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Thanks for the video!! Great info as always!!
I made a bet with my co worker that average house prices will be lower on January 2023 than today. What do you think are the odds of me winning the bet? Thanks
65 percent as prices could see sucker buying or a bull trap with the midterms this November. Prices could actually rise late this year only to fall hard at the start of 2023 as inflation returns and interest rates take a second leg up this coming January.
@@parkerbohnn thanks for the insight. We are looking to purchase a house maybe end of next year. Hopefully we can time it right or at least get in at a good price.
@@kit_lap8931 January or February 2024 is my guess on when to buy. Everything depends on what happens to real estate in China.
Will answer in the next video
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Jon, really appreciate the your honest professional assessment on the housing market as it's hard to find.
Q) I'm from Fraser Valley Chilliwack BC and I've been investing in silver and gold (bullion & stocks) and waiting for the right moment to sell it and buy revenue generating real estate. Do you have any predictions as to when you think the ratio between the two would be most favourable for me? ...For instance in 1980 you could buy a median home in US for 1000 oz silver... I would just like to hear your opinion as I think your a honest pro. Thanks buddy.
I'm a heavy buyer of gold and silver bars as the U.S. dollar tops out in the next year. Silver could see a once in a lifetime run as hyperinflation grips America in the next several years and the U.S. dollar turns to confetti. The Canadian dollar and Aussie dollar should see a huge bull run in the next few years sending both to lifetime highs against the U.S. dollar.😁
Hey, I did a video comparing real estate to gold. Here’s the link
Let's Compare Real Estate to Real Money. 2022 Canadian Housing Market
th-cam.com/video/DORKkIMOnvY/w-d-xo.html
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Even if a house in Vancouver drops from $2M down to $1M, it is still ridiculously over priced in my opinion.
No house is worth anything close to even $1M, again imo. The biggest waste of money spending that much on a place to sleep, cook, eat and use social media.
Great analysis again. John what is your projection on new home prices 6 months down the road keeping in mind inflation and developers who might not be very keen to develop land.
Tears as they have no buyers as in the Chinese have stopped buying any new stock. New home prices should fall bout 70 percent from the February peak without the Chinese in the market.
I'm guessing builders will try to sell for current prices but sales will dry up and they will try and wait it out. Many won't be able to wait and will fold
@@jonflynn The Chinese don't buy into falling markets no matter how far they fall so no one will be buying any new stock. Prices of new housing stock would have to drop about 75 percent for the locals that aren't Chinese to get a mortgage.
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I'm still analyzing the latest data..... but it appears the GTA is heading into the toilet without a bottom in sight yet ?
This could get really ugly into/through 2023..... let's see on Sept 7th where the front loading on cpi inflation is ?
there will be some pain ahead for many
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Thank you for this.
Any time
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Calgary prices still not dropping at all. Wondering if they will. Great videos and info!
it may not seem like it yet but they have started to fall
Condos tanking, home prices holding up better as oil retreats from 138 to the 88 level.
@@parkerbohnn - Still no relief in sight for detached?
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Since you are based in the Niagara Region, can you give some predictions/projections for what you expect to happen in Niagara in the next 6 to 24 months. Great job on the videos by the way.
We have seen big gains, some of the biggest percentage wise in Canada so we will most likely see some of the biggest losses too. I think the rate of declines will slow from what we've already seen so far but will remain consistent for the next 1-2 years until everything plays out and we find a bottom.
@@jonflynn Hi Jon - Great Videos. Can you do a video specific to Niagara since that is where you primarily focus. Would like to see the ups/downs/future projections of Niagara Falls, St Catharine's, Fonthill/Welland, Fort Erie, NOTL, etc. The prices in these areas are still astronomically high, especially in a bedroom community such as Fonthill. When do you anticipate the bottom to hit in these areas? And what stage are most in at the moment? Denial?
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Most Variable rate mortgages will trigger after the BoC meeting on Sept 7th. The fall will be a blood bath. In my opinion, the BoC Overnight rate will be 4% MINIMUM by E.O.Y.
Strap in, going to be a dark Q4.
That'll be the start with reduced spending for a lot of people. Then companies that tried not to fire people over Christmas will have to start in the first quarter as payment on outstanding debts continue to grow and sales for many companies will continue with to drop.
Lol blood bath
Thanks for the comment
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Great video as always Jon.
One thing that really caught my attention was how coincidental is it that CREA forgot to have the July Data on their National Average Sales Blockchart and that you had to add it yourself. This could just be a coincidence, but I have had this theory that both CREA, TREBB & CMHC have been presenting data in a manner thats not painting a true picture. Data can be interpreted many ways but it still has to be presented accurately.
Also, if you listen to any official from these agencies and they almost sound like they're dismissive of the fact that things are starting to get ugly. I'm not saying they should spread fear but they shouldnt blatantly not dismiss the risks involved. It almost feels like they're in unison with the local Realtor in calming people saying this is a minor blip. I could be totally wrong but this wouldnt be the first time agencies and institutions have cooked data a certain way that benefits them, 08-09 is a fine example of such, where Ratings Agencies, Mortgage Agencies and Realtors were in on the act.
Something to think about I guess.
They should release some affordability stats, thanks for your comment
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Looking at these charts and information it looks like a slow train wreck in real estate and it's painful to watch. Every week we wait for new data.
it will be painful but needed
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explained this really well!
thanks
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Great content. Do you think PEI will decrease at all? It seems like we're still catching up to the rest of the country.
There's no more baby boomers to retire so home prices will tumble there. The last two years saw the last of the baby boomers retire. Many sold out in Ontario or British Columbia and relocated to PEI. Note only the poorer ones as taxes are ominous out east.
PEI homes prices will decrease with rising interest rates, they’re just a little behind the more populated provinces
@@jonflynn appreciate the reply. There’s still a lot of people from Ontario buying here sight unseen.
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Denial it's not just seller who are in denial but real estate agents who still want big commission, from what I've read and hear some real estate agents drop there commission rate from 5% to 2% an some seller were offering 1% sale commission, agents were motivate to get the highs price on the houses in which to get the same commission as a 5% rate, and are still motivate to push to keep high prices even if there rate is 5%
Paris, Brantford, Caledonia, Niagara Falls, Hamilton have still not seen price drop like in Toronto and area
I started telling people last year, prices are up, commission is down, lol
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And there’s the 0.75% we expected in the BOC rate hike. This isn’t the end of the hikes.
Foreclosures are coming at large scale.
I would say so
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When interest rates rise, bond prices fall, with longer term bonds most sensitive to rate changes. This is because longer-term bonds have a greater duration ie more coupon payments than shorter term bonds. The short term and long term bonds have inverted because of this. I would say old school economists would say interest rates need to rise to the inflation rate to drag inflation down but I'd say that's clearly over zealous. Imagine the BOC interest rate increasing to 8-9% now? Today 4-4.5% is seen as a drag. We are at 2.5% so everybody don't be surprised when there's 2 more rate hikes this yr. 0.75% on Sept 7th.
Using Fibs!! Nice. You could expand your Fib range though. Using 2020 as a bottom might be a little too conservative.
If this is a proper correction, it will overcorrect 5-10% past the long term trend line.
Long term corporate bonds BBB+ and above are not seeing buying at all. In fact they're going the opposite direction of the Bank of Canada ten year and 30 year rates.
Thanks for the info, I was thinking about using data further back to 2015 for the fib but trying to give the benefit of the doubt to the market, but I do expect the last 2 years of gains to get wiped out so yes you're correct. I might redo with longer time frame.
@@jonflynn
Yes. You could even treat the move from 2010 as the next leg up which would broaden your Fib range. As in the market had 2 moves. One from 1999/2000 to 2009. Then another from 2010 until start of 2022. That kind of fits the real estate cycle doesn’t it?
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check also: wowa Montreal market july 2022 or apciq newsroom for Quebec market
Thanks for the info
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Buyers will be beating the wealth out of sellers for the next decade 😂
People have no idea how bad things are about to get
You both sound desperate lol
@@cultoffreedom9068 not desperate at all. Just educated and not a dumb sheep that believes prices will only go up forever just because we have a fictitious supply shortage and 500K new immigrants every year 😂.
@@thewealthymarketer wait for lock downs and war lol....... then what Budd... you think it's smooth sailing from here out ? Now thats sheep talk ... the money printer isn't going to stop .. the ponzi scheme will continue..... lmk if you Wana make 100k side bet we can use a 3rd party
@@cultoffreedom9068 once we get locked down and WW3 hits our home prices will double or even triple, right bud? Yeah bud. The more bad things that happen the richer Canadian Homeowners will get because everyone will want to run and hide in cold and ignorant Canada 😂.
prices seem to track the stock market?
The U.S. stock market is the biggest fraud in the history of all mankind. That's one of the reasons so much money went into real estate.
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House prices are still high in northern Ontario. Many still going for over asking. Most are old and not worth the huge asking prices. Not to mention the black flies, deer flies etc. Not the best place to live if you can't deal with bugs and mice looking to come in for the winter.
Thats just sellers and realtors trying to fish one last time. They know there losing the game
people think that paying $300K for a house up north is a deal, until the market really turns and they won't be able to sell.
@@jonflynn and when i tell them that they say oh then will just rent it out and first time buyers wont get in the market. 🤦♂️
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Bank greed sounds like the answer
always. Record profits
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House prices are way to high
I heard that about NYC once 🤣
yep
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we were very fortunate to sell in Feb in the BC market and move to the prairies.....no mortgage and much higher quality of life. it would be great to see some data on similar stories of families moving from BC and Ont markets to prairie provinces.
Higher quality of life in the prairies?!?!?! Just wait for winter
But you live in Saskatchewan......
Winter is coming
@@mitchreynolds9841 Not everyone works. Its warm in the malls and in the taxis.
I just had friends/clients move to Saskatchewan this month after they sold. Most of the other moves from my area that I've dealt with have been east.
The buyers aren't winning the battle. The sellers control the inventory and therefore control the price
The buyers always control the market without them there is no market.
Renting is way cheaper and less risky than buying right now. Landlords will be forced to sell before buyers are forced to buy given the current trajectory of the market and interest rates.
@@Paul-km8ko the declining prices are going the buyers way
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