Argentina’s Peso Collapses: Is Milei in Trouble?
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While Milei's economic reforms have yielded some positive impacts, the value of the Peso is collapsing, undermining his plans to unify Argentina’s currency. So in this video, we'll explain what's happened and what this means for Milei politically.
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There are only four kinds of economies: developed, developing, Japan, and Argentina.
Seems like Argentina's economy might not exist in a bit haha
Japan isn't an anomaly. It's only considered so because mainstream economics doesnt understand how it can run such a large debt without collapsing. They should learn MMT
@@PingSharpArgentinians have more lives than a cat, we've been saying this every year but miraculously they always seem to find a new loan
overused meme from the 60's.
@@rizkyadiyanto7922 yes, have a cookie
The peso collapsed long before anyone had ever heard of Milei.
true, he juste made it worse in a very short period.
@@SERGIO-cr6uy No.
@@SERGIO-cr6uyWhat the hell are you talking about? Inflation went from 25.3% monthly in December to 8.8% in April, there has never been a time when inflation did not stop going down, you talk when you don't know, it's better to shut up
@@SERGIO-cr6uy suuuuuuuure because inflation going down is a bad thing
Yes, but it only crashed unofficially, which makes it different(tm).
This title only makes sense if you didn't know that Argentina's economy was devastated before he took office.
Ik 😂😂😂
Clearly guys like him 'no la ven' (he doesn't see it)
@@Leazeta😂
How's that copium working out for ya? :P
@@andresreal8261 Alright man turn North Korea into a country stronger than America in 4 hours. I bet you can't do it either.
wait - you telling me that in 3 months he could not fix Argentina (a poster child of economic "how NOT to do" for almost close to a century and counting)
OMG, ty TLDR!!
Half a year. And half a year is what he has promised btw. I will give him 100% more time, because all politicians overpromise, but if in november its still shit, he will have to take responsabilities.
@@MrMillefailThis will take years.
He's a good economist and communicator, but terrible politician and negotiator. I don't expect much of him, besides presidential decrees, which are temporary fixes and won't change much for Argentina in the long run.
En qué momento prometió 6 meses?@@MrMillefail
"I am the king, and I will destroy you!"
Finally, an honest politician.
I may disagree with Milei on every single issue but I love how he ignores any sense of political decorum
Honest dictator
yeah... first thought was "here is for cultural differences... wtf?"... but then came the realisation - our politicians say much worse things behind closed doors, at least this guy is open about it.
@jeromefitzroy Not a dictator because he was elected.
Edit: I mean, he didn't:
- persecute the opposition (like Putin and Biden's administration do)
- change the regime to other than democratic
- do anything to cheat the election system next time he runs
he was doing a cover of this song m.th-cam.com/video/4laXR4gPBA8/w-d-xo.html&pp=ygUKcGFuaWMgc2hvdw%3D%3D
I have news for you. The Argentine economy has been in sharp decline for more than twenty years.
Lol what? From 2003 to 2011 it was among if not the fastest growing economy in the world
@@AgusSimoncelli but before and after it crashed. it's just all ups and downs
That would go against the left wing view this channel tries to indoctrinate you with.
Actually the objective reporting about Miles proves they are not as biased as you seem to be ;)
@@BrotherHood-xh9sg Doesn't he acknowledge that these have been historic problems for Argentina?
There's obviously a tilt to this channel but that is not a good example of it.
why are you suggesting that economy was stable before him why those 3 day stable price chart🤣
Hes a lib.
Ik. 😂
Dang, I wonder what platform Milei got elected on.
That’s what proponents of MMT do. They embrace government tampering in economic matters that strips the power away from the people and instead puts it in the hands of government and corporations. Same thing happens in the US.
@@HappyGuy-cn9po People should really look at what happened to post-communist states when they implemented shock therapy. Yes, it's rocky at the start especially trying to correct years of hyperinflation from a planned economy but market reforms always work to improve quality of life.
@@hakeemfrancis1099 Indeed.
As an Eastern European who remembers early 90's (barely but still) I must say that unfortunately getting out of economic s*** hole is painfull and will cause social unrest. The question always is will you and the reformers endure long enough.
Don't try to discuss that with first world inhabitants whos hardest struggle in life was not having a Starbucks nearby man. Inflation went down from 25% monthly to 4% from December to may and it's not the only indicator that got grossly better and also the president promised in campaign that at the bare minimum it'll take him 18 months to stabilize the situation
facts
Remember that not all countries in Eastern Europe get out of the troubles by measures like this. In Russia simmilar politics caused oligarchisation of economy and politics, that lead to what we see for in FR - right wing dictatorship.
@@prkp7248 Policies in Russia? If you haven't checked up the USSR never seized to exist, only changed names bud. Also you seriously calling EM a right wing dictator? What the actual F
Is reform worth it? Everything depends on the reform. Is it a thought out solution or just reactionary garbage? Shock therapy was the latter.
This guy is straight out of South Park
Or Stardew Valley. Argentine players are quick to point out the similarities between Milei and Morris, the .... antagonist in Stardew Valley.
Ikr... His dollarization policy wouldn't have been stupid in the 1960s but taking your money to the dollar zone in a undollarizing world seems quite stubborn not to say stupid 😅😅😅
Basically yes
Nah, South Park would NEVER criticize a right-wing libertarian.
@@felixschrobenah3822 The US dollar is the most attractive leper in the leper colony. what currency wold you recommend?
There was no way Argentina was going to pull off a "soft landing", Melei even said that things would get worse before they got better
Sure. Milei will make it worse. Getting rid of Milei will make it better.
@@andrewklang809 lol no
What's the alternative you suggest then, expert?
@@andrewklang809 leftists were in power for decades there and that caused argentina to be third world country that keeps regressing more and more.
@@andrewklang809 left wing always makes it worse
It's worth mentioning that the song Milei was singing is Panic Show by La Renga, a song about a lion who devours politiicans.
He is no lion. Just a mouse with a very large and obnoxious voice
With him being a politician. And La Renga hating Milei's guts.
The lack of self-awareness is worthy of a greek tragedy.
@@JonathanB138No Lion? Well he's Wolverine. Just look at him.
@@andresreal8261 El odio se les fue cuando Milei les revivió la carrera, ahora de repente lo aman y no les molesta que cante su canción, por la plata baila el mono 🦧🤣
Regardless of whether you agree with him, it’s certainly a major issue to ignore the context of the song in which he is singing those lines!
Lol, the peso didn't collapse; it was overvalued at 1000 per dollar. A 1200-1300 rate is much more reasonable.
Not too many people understand this and it’s incredibly frustrating
cope
@@sorenkirksdjfk7310Facts don't care about your feelings.
You failed to tell three important things:
1) Previous administration print a lot of money that created the exponential inflation that we had in the last months.
2) A lot of things were subsided by the government, funded by a lot of taxes and freshly printed money. Milei is ending that so we have to pay the real value of things (as we should)
3) His plan is creating a context we you can trade with whatever currency you want to use. Currently you can only trade with Argentinian pesos
Ten thumbs up on this comment.
This ain't a fail, this was intentional lmao
@@Hanex94 I can imagine
Enjoy your indentured servitude to the US empire.
Super good point. Milei removed the subsidies and the price and wage controls that the previous administrations had put into place to address the rising inflation (they were causing by having the money printer running on overdrive).
as a Chilean, nothing looks more Argentine than having your president do a rally at Luna Park signing rock songs, lol. Can't say they're not entertaining! But I'm hoping they can recover somewhat after all these years of decay, it would be good for them, us, and the whole region.
Chile has Lots of Copper I Think.
Chile Makes more than $40 Billion Every Year From Copper
They will have to get rid of Millei first. All he's doing is setting the stage to sell off the country to his rich friends and leave nothing but eternal poverty for the poor and working class.
I hope they can't recover so other countries think twice before electing populist neoliberals.
They won't. There is no future in South America.
@@danielcaldwell1110 Imagine being so salty that a leaders plan to uplift a failed economy and a failed state might work that you actively wish it not to 😂
@TLDRnewsGLOBAL context is important. He sings in the song - 'I am the king of a lost kingdom, I will destroy you, all politicians increase my appetite'. That's kind of the best translation you can provide 'you' does not mean he will destroy people but rather the political caste.
Thank you
This
Interesting to see names like Menem in his government, then.
Well but he will destroy you, he is already destroying them, Argentinians aren't his people, his people are Israelis lmao. His lost kingdom is Israel. You guys are slow.
Lots of copium with Daniel Caldwell ☝️
After being drunk for a hundred years, Argentina gets a hangover. Give the countr (and the guy) a break, for F(inances) sake.
yep, your right, after all these years, nothing id going to happen overnight, jeez! I liked this TH-cam to point out this guy's bias
@@cmarlowe1 The left is the most dangerous criminal organization in the world. It's not just people in this and that country. It's an interconnected international mafia.
Milei's policies are the same as Menem's who was a major reason for the economy being in a shit state
Never Say NEVER 😎 Justin Bieber
You mean that's why they elected a guy who looks and talks as if he should be in recovery or in an asylum?
as someone who used to live in Argentina until relatively recently, the jump of the dollar blue rate is actually not as crazy as it seems. a bit less than a year ago the peso's unofficial rate went up from about 400 pesos per euro to about 1100 in two weeks time.
When they un maired the peso to the dollar some 20 years back, the value was divided by 4 in 24h.
I was there.
Milei is the first politician to openly admit he thinks he's a rock star and king.
No. Trump said that back in 2016
And?
@@tom_demarcoit means he is honest, unlike the honeywords of the socialists in Latin America where they keep lying and stealing state funds to the people they are meant to serve while dumb socialist people like Pedro Sanchez in Spain, this channel (and probably yourself) praise them as idols 😡😡😡
@@tom_demarco And i am the guillotine (?)
Chad move
Only problem with this video - the Argentinian peso is not collapsing; just drifting somewhat down since start of 2023.
Exactly!
This video is kind of stupid. Anyone that knows about economics knows that the peso was supposed to “collapse” as it had been since before Milei was elected. The fact that it hadn’t until now is actually a miracle. This is Argentina’s past catching up with them.
Are you saying theres no way to stop the bad economy until much time has passed?
@@ollep0lleVery much so, yes.
@@ollep0lle You can’t solve an economy that has been systematically destroyed by leftist policies for 70 years in 6 months. The inflationary pressure that Argentina is facing because of money printed before December 10th, 2023 is immense. They are going through maybe the biggest economic detox a country has ever faced.
@@ollep0lle Yeah, its gets worse before it gets better but you gotta take the pain otherwise the whole nation will be stuck in a quagmire forever instead of just temporarily.
@@christianbroadbent7489 Why do you keep parroting nonsense of you don't even know the meaning of economy?
you used images of Pesos Ley (1970-1983) not the current (1992-now) Pesos
eh it's no a terrible mistake, personally I like the looks of it better to the current ones. (current ones do have way better safety mechanisms don't get me wrong)
He's laying on everything
I like the content of tldr news, but they should really get these things right and vet the graphics more.
Asi de meados son. No la ven. Y se ponen a opinar "il piso colipsi". Zapallos!
Ultimately the past few months have been the most stable the Peso has been in a few years
As a lebanese, the fact that I can understand how much any amount of LBP is again is much more important than seeing number go down.
@@mhammadalloush5104 how are things in Lebanon now?
Yea, stable in the sense it's predictable that it's going to further worthless
@@wile123456 inflation is a lot lower now, from 25% of monthly inflation to 4%
He's like a new CEO that instead of dealing with the problems and working to improve the long term situation he droppers prices to a minimum/lose levels that immediately improves the cash flow but will after a while things will be worst than before.
The Peso has only dropped 10% this year. That's unprecedented in recent years.
It's NOT true that the Peso is collapsing. In the last 6 months since Milei took office the Peso went down 30% which sounds like a lot, but compare that with the 120% in the previous 6 months before him! The truth is that Milei is stopping the fall of the Peso in an unprecedented manner. Never before has inflation slowed down at these rates in Argentina's history.
Result of 100 years of inefficency and mega corruption wont just go away by Blaming certain people
They’re not just blaming. They’re starving the poor!
Don't straw man in here summer child.
that's great. the video didn't blame 100 years of anything on anybody.
@@pathnetthey did tho, they are talking about Milei policies over the Peso, but they do not talk about the consecuences of 100 years of corruption and missmanedgent over an economy, they even use year-to-year inflation rates to measure Milei succed on the conomy when he doesn't even have a year in power .-. and he was left economical bombs by the past administration. You can judge his action and his result by what's the result of what's he's doing but ignoring the context is dumb and bad for a newsletter like this
Milei just replaced the old crooks with himself and his preferred crooks. Still crooks just the same.
Maintain an independent central bank and avoid issuing bonds with a 126% yield, and you won't need to rely on the dollar. However, in Argentina, this is easier said than done.
There's something called "Impossible Trinity", a government may only choose two: independent monetary policy, free capital mobility or fixed exchange rates.
Countries usually grow have free capital mobility and try to lock people in doing the opposite
Secondly, the video state "Inflation is the rise of prices", no that's not actually what inflation means. Inflation means "Inflation of the monetary base", rising prices are the consequences, but the causes are different, and those can be many.
Rise of prices can be caused by cut of subsidies (that governments do to selected sectors), higher demand for a certain product, less offer of products that can caused by bureaucracy, taxes and overawll low productivity. Inflation on the other hand is just that, government creating new money and pushing into the economy leading to higher prices since the money is less valuable. When you have an economy like Argentina's, where the government controls it's rates and circulation of goods with an iron fist over the economy and productive sectors, that's the recipe for a never ending cycle towards inefficiencies. It's what led the soviet union and any other interventionist government to fail economically. Centralisation can never work out better than decentralisation when talking at higher spectre, it's simply impossible no matter the good intentions behind the people and the team making such decisions. It's like adjusting the pressure of pipes, you put pressure here, another pipe explodes, you fix, take the pressure, another pipe does not bring water.
It's a good lesson though, and I hope Milei's way does not get f*cked by the old parasitic aristocracy that have always enslaved the it's people.
There's no such thing as an independent central bank. Only government controlled central banks and World Bank/IMF controlled central banks.
I'd prefer the former, if you don't believe me ask Japan.
When El loco fails, he can blame the dollar and Yankees
@@devaereo you were good until you got to inflation being caused by pushing more money out. You forget the definition is too much money chasing too few goods. Increasing production of the economy using increased money put into the economy will lead to no or little inflation. Inflation is not just printing money. You don’t get crazy inflation during war because that spending is used for production. We spent loads of money during COVID. But that alone didn’t cause inflation. Supply chain issues leading to decreased production and goods in addition to it did.
@@kevinstfort This is what I'm trying to explain. I know you have schools of thoughts stating that inflation is the rise of the general level of prices, it's just plain wrong.
For example, in a war both things usually happens: Governments print a lot to pay for the war at the same time that there's a huge demand over products.
This concept of inflation being general rises in prices is an attempt by politicians/governments to conceal the expansion of the monetary base.
An example I made in another comment:
Let's say we had a flood, everything became harder to get, produce and transport: This is a raise in prices, everyone's money stays the same, the difficulty to get these products just went up.
Now let's say we use gold for money, it's supply is relatively stable so it can hold value. Now let's say a meteor of gold crashes on earth and everyone has access to gold, prices will also go up, because the value of gold went down (inflation of the monetary base). Difficulty/value to get those products didn't change, what changed was the value of gold that''s used for transactions.
Now, there's a lot of pressure to keep these concepts as general as this way, because many governments create their own systems (i.e, subsidies) so that once you take those away, you have a price surge, which then people come and say "INFLATION" and it's generally frowned upon, exactly as they are doing with Milei
Our economy is like a flailing fish, fighting for its life. The normal state of the Argentina 🇦🇷 economy is actually very bad. Because of this it goes into convulsive spasms fighting to grow any way it can out of desperation. Tricks, gimmicks, rule changes try to stimulate the economy and prevent it from falling but they only bring temporary relief to people since, when you factor in inflation we are declining.
People believe their currency has the worth it does because they have no other option. Even in a hyperinflationary environment, individuals must continue to use their hyperinflationary currency since they likely have minimal access to other currencies or gold/silver coins.
Inflation is gradually going to become part of us and due to that fact any money you keep in cash or in a low-interest account declines in value each year. Investing is the only way to make your money grow and unless you have an exceptionally high income, investing is the only way most people will ever have enough money to retire.
"The mind is the man, the poor is in it and the rich is it too". This sentence is the secret of most successful investors. I once attended similar and ever since then been waxing strong financially, and i most tell you the truth..investment is the key that can secure your family future.
Putting our time and effort in activities and investments that will yield a profitable return in the future is what we should be aiming for. Success depends on the actions or steps you take to achieve it.
I agree with you had a senior colleague at work who was doing well but never had an investment. Unfortunately he lost his job and went from living a comfortable life to hardship. There would had been something to fall back on if he had an investment
10% of Argentina's GDP is LELIQ Bonds?
Thats insanity
I mean, he hasn't even been in power for a year and he admitted in his inauguration speech that things were going to be tough. He was very honest about this and considering how Argentina has been in an extended economic downturn for the past 20 years, honesty is the best policy.
I don't see Milei going anywhere anytime soon.
It is the unions that he has to worry about. They have been flat footed since the election. That will change.
It all depends on the midterm.
Yeah, dictators tend to stick and dont let go voluntarily. Either they kick the bucket, end in a puddle of blood, or, rarelly, end up behind bars, either jail bars or bars of a truck refrigerator.
He overpromised, and then walked it back once he got elected. It's the standard populous formula. Also, it's not just the government. The government is a reflection of the culture. Until the culture changes, don't expect much else to change. I don't blame the people for voting for him, but it's a reminder that when a politician promises you the world, you're lucky to get a fraction.
@@elgusaniiiodeljuego6823 Spot on
6:57 Of course the Swiss have the most neutral respondents
switzerland is so neutral that even its people are neutral
2:19 oh yes so neutral. He gave 10 seconds to the cuts. You know the cuts that fired a bunch of people and cut social services which there have been a bunch of protests. Oh yes so neutral.
Said 0 about privatization and handing it out to his friends. Did he said anything about laws being written by business people and him pushing them as his own. Oh yes SOOO NEUTRAL.
@@tapeshsharma9254thats because they dont care about what goes on outside their borders
😅
@@tapeshsharma9254 they are neutral about neutrality
Argentina's peso collapsed long before Milei arrived. Milei also said things would get much worse before they would start getting better. Recovery does not happen overnight.
So you think Russia was a success story? Shock therapy in the 90s and now they are doing great?
He is doing exatly what he promissed, he also told everyone that is gone get worse.
Talking about Milei's government inflation without saying anything about the atrocious spending that the previous government did and is still impacting Argentina now is, at least, ignorant, at worse, deceiving.
You sound like a fan of him. Did you also buy Merchandise from him? You know, like the Trump supporters with their Made in China MAGA hats.
When it comes to institutions and "journalists", always assume malice over stupidity.
They both use incompetence and stupidity as camouflage.
Jack always seems to have a disdain for Libertarians. Just look from a while back when he called Chase Oliver as "A Libertarian" that grid locked the U.S. Georgia Senate Election
They did an entire video about that months ago
The atrocious spending every single country did during the pandemic?
When a Central Banking product is 10% of your economy you have a problem, and Argentina is not the only country to have that problem.
It's very short term, so it's easy to create a high volume without actually being that much. GDP is only about money flowing around, not anything productive happening
That's right... it is easier to blame someone else instead of taking responsibility. You sound like Hilary Clinton in 2016 or Trump in 2020
It is a bubble full of very explosive gases
Indeed. And if you dare to say something like that in Argentina you'll be automatically a "radical Peronist completly biased", and that's so freaking hilarious.
Please get informed first
🍌
dude! which year is that peso from?! we have not had a single peso bill since 1996 (ish)
You know you have been staying up too late when tdlr news drops a video. this only really applies to ppl on North america lol.
4pm here in south east asia
@@goyangdumang1961 we both need to get some sleep lol
12.00 in Finland. This channel is always fun to follow while eating a lunch.
@@rikuvakevainen6157 hälsningar från Sverige, käkar lunch nu med
4AM here in US. I actually like this since TLDR uploads when I have breakfast before work.
3:36 The Argentinian Government had a huge amount of products that were subsidized. Since entering office, Milei has cut down or eliminated a lot, if not most, of these subsidies. Because these subsidies reduced the prices paid by consumers, the official inflation rate statistics were squeezed at best and fraudulent at worst.
Therefore, only recently, and by pegging the black-market/free-market/unofficial-market (heard and read all these terms) exchange rate of Peso-USdollar to the official exchange rate, and by eliminating a lot of these subsidies, can the people of Argentina (and anyone in the world) know the true cost of years of currency-printing and deficit borrowing.
And like a true libertarian, he will ensure the poor pay the price and the rich will dodge the bullet and have their assets guaranteed and protected.
Actually, Milei started increasing subsidies again because he's prioritizing lower inflation in the short term over austerity. And he didn't peg the exchange rates, the black market rate is still 30% higher than the official one.
Its kind of hard to fix a sinking boat. But this guy will do it.
Argentine economy was already collapsed before Melie showed up... Too funny...
Yet he found a way to collapse it even more haha. He literally took a shit sandwich, and found a way to make it more shit haha.
@@mrvwbug4423 FALSE, it actually got better, this video is misleading
@@43333akjfkgodel Yeah except poverty rose by 10%
And now is even worst 😉
Honestly, he needs to go all in like Peru did in the 90s and let the current rate float.
float rate and no fiscal deficit allow them even not to do dollarization!
Indeed
How is Peru?
@@ivani3237 Milei wants to dollarize because he has no faith in the Argentinian politicians. He is well aware of the pressures that every other reformer has had to face, and that he will not remain forever in power. So dollarization removes the ability of future politicians to buy votes, which was the essence of Peronism.
@@christianlibertarian5488 Mileis coalition includes Peronists lol
Too early to tell. Takes years or decades for economic policy to really be understood
watch the video before making useless comments?
Pot and kettle
To anyone with a brain, it takes 2 seconds to look at this and know it's been and will always be a disaster. It's a dumb plan made up by a VERY dumb person.
It takes between 3 or 4 years to see the impact of macro policies
4 - 7 years due to how complex things have become
"In order to make an omelette you have to break a few eggs"
Yes!
when the military and police stop getting their wages, then thats the true test. of how eggs will fry on the pan.
Enjoy your indentured servitude to the US empire.
In this case, he is just killing the chicken...
"In order to make your cronies wealthy, you have to gut your economy."
3:04 those pesos notes are from another currency that existed in 1970s named Peso Ley 18188. After that, in 1981 Argentina changed to "peso argentino", which lasted until 1985. In 1985 the currency changed from peso to the Austral. And finally in 1992 the peso convertible was created (this is the current one, but is not convertible since 2002)
Nice video, but what madness is going on with those graph y-axes scales?!
0:55 & 3:52 Intervals of 35
2:10 Intervals of 55
5:19 Intervals of 17
Deafult Andy Excel options lol
cherry picking? well spotted!
This channel is not very professional.
They're trying to fit all of the data in the same amount of screen space
Oh shut up Milei.
It's worth noting that the songs he sang when presenting his book where parodies of already existing ones. And is referring to the argentinian political cast when saying "I'm going to destroy you". Also it was not just a rock concert it was also the normal economical speech he does usually.
The way it's mentioned and the untold information make it look like it was said like that too deceive people negatively.
I'm pretty sure it was said because it's a crazy thing to see a president do.
Normal... Argentina is in deep trouble if they think this maniac will save them
@@TheBossDroid The only difference between a madman and a genius is success. And so far he has been a genius.
@@catmoon95 A genius? Bwah!
Do a better research for the next video, so you won't look like you don't know what you're talking about. 😊
Why are the westeners desperate for Milei to fail?
Because the Western media are full with leftist so they don't like a libertarian
They actually aren't. They want cheap labor and cheap resources from Argentina, which is what Millei will ultimately give them.
trump likes him
do you need anything else?
Milei is awesome
The peso has hardly collapsed
U seem pretty jelly of Bukele
Prices have stabilized, that is true. I think if anything, Milei saved the peso from hyperinflation.
@@dooglio Wha'ts the news then? Milei's on June saved the peso from Milei's heavy inflation rate on January... c'mon buddy
@@vitto_pincharrata Are you really that dumb to believe the inflation on a president's first month is the result of his own actions?
He inherited 25% of monthly inflation and is going to be 4% this month, enormous success. He eliminated the fiscal deficit in record time, accumulated reserves in the central bank, inflation is falling quickly, EMBI (the lower the better) was 2500 and is 1200 now
12.8%. only when he took office the inflation got to 25.5%
Interesting that November month to month inflation rate was lower that the April's 8.8%
He didn't "inherit" 25% monthly inflation, it was a direct result of his decision of devaluing the peso by 100% in a day. The only reason he has achieved a budget surplus is bc he cut pensions by about 40%, cut teachers' salaries by even more, and didn't pay energy distribution companies for the first 3 months of the year. That alone would make the surplus go away
@@AgusSimoncelliNo, the devaluation was only recognizing the black market rate.
Basically when he entered the goverment had said that the peso was worth more than it really was and only friends of the powerful were able to get peso at the goverment exchange rate. When he entered he moved the official goverment exchange rate to be more in line with the blue dollar aka the black market exchange rate that more than 99% of argentinians used. So didb't devalued the peso by priting more he only recognized the official exchange rate.
here comes the cherry picking conservatives finding one stat and spin it in an unfactual way to try to make him look good, who cares if the average joe over there has gotten so much poorer in a few months
And how was Argentina before him?
Argentina’s been like this for a long time; huge overspending in good times, drastic cuts in bad times. Somehow, they’ve got to balance it out. 🤑
As always, a very good analisys. 2 things to clarify though:
1) The "Blue" isn't the "real" dolar. The real dolar (in which the other around 30 variants base on) is the CCL, the dolar that we use to trade internationally. People that doesn't understand finances (and there are A LOT in Argentina, since we don't get finance education at all) usually think everything in "blue", but some of us know better. Milei himself mentioned this during his campaign, when asked in an interview "how much would the dolar cost if we dollarize today?" and he turned around to one of his helpers and asked "how much does the CCL stand for today?" and then turned around and answered "the rate of dolar-peso if we dollarize today would be ..." (it was 720 at the time).
2) Argentina can't dollarize as Milei said all the time during his campaign NOT because we lack the amount of dolars needed, but because our Constitution doesn't allow it. To dollarize the economy he first needs to convince 60% of the country to change the Constitution, and then it needs to pass the changes in Congress. Neither of those things will happen in the next 3 years. Our Constitution DOES allow for dual money economy, and that's why he changed his tune to go that way.
Anyway, thanks for sometimes thinking about us "down here". :)
Keep up the good work, love the channel(s). :)
Mariano, si el "blue" no fuera el dolar real, no existiría. Justamente es el dolar que no determina ni el gobierno ni las empresas. Tal vez sepas mucho de finanzas pero los argentinos saben mucho de economía
@@yuriisubanda741 mmmmh, no lo determinan ni el gobierno ni las empresas.... ok, te recomiendo que te eduques. Vivir en Argentina sin tener educación financera es muy problemático. Lo se porque aprendí finanzas hace menos de un año y me cambió la vida. Y de economía sabemos tanto como de fútbol, medicina, política.... Somos tódos técnicos, doctores y politólogos. :)
No problem you’re like the generation X of countries. No one cared about you but now you’re getting a bunch of attention.
The tale of the "V-shaped Recovery" is so old, but seems to be still popular...
Brazil went through the same ol' story just 3 years ago
V shape recovery has happened before when libertarian policies have been implemented.
Hong kong, Singapore, New zealand and Uk are good example os it.
@@Tespri what? None of those countries neither had a massive economic downturn or implemented policies such as these. The closest you can get is Thatcher in the UK, but it wasn't even close to being this violent.
Hong Kong, Singapore and NZ are countries with historically not only a very strong industrial policy, but with a strong state. Singapore basically did the state capitalism route same as Taiwan, China and SK
@@matheusd.rodrigues429Nope, this is just Bullshit, Bolsonaro did basically nothing economically, just made some SLIGHTLY easier with Pix, and that's it
@@AgusSimoncelli all of them had massive up turn. Uk recovered from brexit. Singapore and hong kong were fishing villages before. New zealand almost collapsed before deregulation.
A couple things.
The song sung by Milei is called "Panic Show" by a band who despises him. The lyrics go as follows:
"Hello everyone, I am the lion
Roared the beast in the middle of the avenue
Everyone ran, without understanding
Panic show in broad daylight
Please don't run away from me
I am the king of a lost world
I am the king and I will destroy you
All the accomplices are of my appetite"
It's not really as shameless as saying I'm the King I'mma destroy y'all; and Milei is associated with the lion, because of his head-thicket (and also this song).
Second, the spike in inflation during December was not so much about the abrupt devaluation, but also because of the momentum from the previous government who created like x2-3 monetary bases in new money in just a couple months (trying to win the elections with their infamous "plan platita").
Thirdly, the "official USD rate" is in practice nearly the same or even higher than the blue market, because of that monster created during the last government called Impuesto PAIS (better known as the Brayan Tax) which adds a percentage to every fx exchange, specially exports and tourism.
Where did you get that peso bill ? We haven't used that for ages
They had an economy to crash?
Milei economic plan's end-goal is to make the USD, EUR, and BRL legal tender currencies alongside ARS, no different from Peru (competencia de monedas). Full dollarization aka total ARS phaseout as the legal tender currency is currently constitutional and Javier Milei knows that fact.
Brazilian real has lower value compared to ars historically.
@@thexperience720 and this is for a good reason:
We Brazilians do not want to tie our economy to another - never put all your eggs in one basket.
And that is why Brazilian economy is stable compared to Argentina...
@@Jamhael1 haha no. You can't explain your country has worst hyperinflations. And the argentine economy is more stable, Milei stabilize the argentine peso much better than the dollar in only 4 months.
@@thexperience720 and we here in Brazil had not suffered an economical crisis since the adoption of the Real as our currency, so you can yap and brag whatever - since I can remember, Argentina has an economy as stable as the brain of a schizophrenic having an epileptic seizure...
@@Jamhael1 you can still crying and babbling whatever you want
Whether Milei is stablizing the ARS, Brazil is still agonizing with a closed economy and a only agro-economy.
Brazil suffer crisis in 2014 and 2016, keey babbling 😉
I keep expecting him to jump on a Lambretta Scooter with 20 mirrors with Austin Powers chasing him..
(Spoiler: no, he's not)
really ? literally saw news about people forced to dig food out from the trash over there cause of the inflation
Cutting rates when inflation is getting worse is like trying to defy gravity.
Remember Argentinian peso was parity to the US dollar in the early 2000s and now is close to 900 pesos/dollar! And they say Japanese yen is collapsing (which went from around 100 yen/dollar to 155 in the same period. BTW it used to be 360 in the 1970s.)
He started from 25% inflation. After 6 months, it is at 4.2%. Check that out.
No
Two years ago , l visited Argentina it's a natural paradise, people are wonderful, Buenos Aires is look like Paris and Londons for is architecture and 96% of the population has a europeen backgroud ( Italian,spanish,german,british,french etc...) but the inflation were terrible and the economy pretty bad.I don't thing the new president could change the situation for the best.
I think he will make it a roaring success. I have lived there, it has all the ingredients and now they have the right leader and the needed desperation. A lot of billions of $ and billionaires from abroad stand by on the sidelines to usher in a new era 🎉❤
@@EamonnMurphy-cc1dt Yeah the billionaires came to see their newly acquired indentured servants
@@glavnibajaumahalu8535 one minute a slave to the government, next minute a slave to elites, what can we do, just have faith 🤗🙏
@@EamonnMurphy-cc1dt As much as I wish that all south American countries prosper the USA will never allow it
@@glavnibajaumahalu8535 I guess it depends which USA we are talking about. Red or blue 🤔
How much of the Argentinian economy actually uses Argentinian Pesos?
Argentinian here: Many of daily transactions are done in pesos.
Argentine here: it is illegal to carry out transactions in another currency. But all high-value products set their price in dollars and when purchasing they convert it to pesos.
Really depends on the year. But most are carried out in pesos. Only exception is house buying, maybe car buying
99٪ of the population. All transactions, except real estate and some kind of equipment for industries, are done in pesos
Currently the dollar is used more as an asset than a currency (it would be like asking you to carry out transactions in gold). That's what Milei seems to want to change.
It is estimated that Argentines have USD 200,000 million physically in safe deposit boxes or houses (outside the financial system).
It is funny how the video starts off with the premise that the Peso is collapsing. Before Milei got into office there are three different currency exchange rates. The currency devalued because he accepted the black rate, which was the true exchange rate. The government rate was like 230 to the dollar, but the black rate was in the high 800s to the dollar. So of course it seems like the Peso collapsed, but the black rate is what everyone was using anyway. The Peso has lost 8% of its value against the US dollar in the last six months. That sounds bad, but compared to what had been happening in the past couple of years, it is doing great.
This guy is clearly not an economist otw he would know that there is no hyperinflation that has not been ended by a massive fiscal and economic contraction...not a single one!
Some of the things he's doing is needed but the way he's hacking away at it (like Liz Trust) shows how little most politicians know about how to run an economy...
I'm not a Mileista but he is an economist or whatever. But also like apprently plagiarized huge parts of his writings.
what is interesting is that truss policys are closer to milei's than most people realise.
True, like he was saying upfront : things are getting worse for the people and idd there is way more poverty in Argentina right now. Totally agree, the policies are needed if u want some real change but he is doing it in such a radical way, that the people can not addept to things getting way worse first. Would be better to do it in smaller steps but he knows that there is a chance that he just has 4 years max.
simple non-abstract fact: cost in USD of a good quality pizza in Buenos Aires from my favourite pizza joint in Almagro (central Buenos Aires)- november 2023, 7-8 usd.....may 2024, 14-16 USD (using the Blue exchange rate).....this price hike applies to about everything in a country where 500USD/month is (was) a decent wage; most people are beginning to run out of saved dollars to avoid lowering their lifestyle too much. Will Milei's support run out as savings disappear and people sell off what they can?
Considering the sorry state the Argentine economy was in before, as it was marching straight into collapse, i'd say Milei's government has been remarkable and in just six months he has done a wonderful job beating inflation and generating surplus. He understands the source of the problem and didn't come up with magic heterodox solutions. I don't think his plans would be without some setbacks though.
It would have crashed regardless: He just happened to be the guy in charge at the time and had it crash his way. If there was someone else it would have only crashed in a slightly different way and at a slightly different date.
Dolarizing your economy is publicly stating that you don't care at all about your sovereignty.
yet dollar is getting near its end with the worlds current geopolitical alliances
argentina collapsed like 5 times in the last 20 years, no, he didnt do it
Man the title seems very clickbaity.
The thumbnail doesn't help either
Give him time...he's getting it done...the peso was pegged to the USD...HORRIBLE MOVE.😮
You should have included the peso value since nov/dec 2023 (in my opinion) great vid.
I hope argentina can fix their economy, because maybe then they'll stop using the falklands as a distraction
An Argentinean's finest pass time
Gibraltar español
Las Malvinas argentinas
Oh Milei was planning on stirring up shit over the Falklands again, why else is he pushing for a massive military buildup ... of a country that is not at war and faces no significant military threat.
@@Fridelain
Portugese Brazil.
Spanish Ecuador.
English Thirteen Colonies.
Russian Alaska.
See how all of that was just bullcrap? Gibraltor was CEDED to the British by Spain after they had negotiated peace, just like you can't say that Alaska is Russian. You're ignoring the demographics, (geo)political & strategic importance/value, people voting to stay as an overseas colony, etc.
@@FridelainWhat about Ceuta
If Milei is allowing the dollar to be used in parallel, he should allow the Euro, too.
I've seen two of your videos and it's enough for me to run away from here and never come back. For you, reality is something different than for the rest.
4:09 The leliqs were phased out in December. Now it’s repos
A re-naming, no more.
@@christianlibertarian5488 wrong ! Debt was move to treasure and removed from central bank. Leliqs was financed emitting money , generating inflation and increasing monetary base. Now, argentina can not emit money to pay bonds anymore.
6:59 Damn i remember years ago people on reddit were simping for Justin Trudeau and now he only have 35% approval.
Funny thing about that... He's still very likely going to win the next election. The leader of the opposition paid $50,000 to avoid debates during his leadership bid and you can't do that in the general election.
Which is still far too high.
@@BrotherHood-xh9sg he's still better than the alternative.
@@ThatGuy-bz2in A homeless drug addict would be better than Trudeau.
I never understood "Trudeaumania". He's arrogant, stupid, acts like a clown internationally, and his policies have done nothing but ruin this country. The fact that he even has 1% approval is embarrassing.
im Argentinian theres lot of information missing here. He cuts down the interest rate of leliqs because there was 3 times bigger than all the circulating money on economy, and that leliqs if the investor want he can change it for real currency (pesos). So u can imagine if from one day to the other u throw 3 times more money to the economy ??.
Well for one thing Argentina's economy has been in decline for years thanks to its previous government. I am not a fan of Milei and not much familiar with Argentina politics but the guy has been in charge since December. Its going to take maybe a couple of years to see what can work and to see if he can even try something.
the big problem is that, argentina produces almost nothing, so at the end of the day all the money they can make just ends up going to imports and thus out of the country, the only way for them to dig themselves out of this is by having an actual industry
They have agriculture and other commodities
@@skeptick6513 no country ever developed on agriculture alone, right next door to Argentina there’s Brazil who can plant anything Argentina plants at 10x the volume and possibly half the cost during the entire year
The same industry that was never competitive and also been hacked away, twisted and malformed by the ever present "welfare state" since the revolution of the 43? We are much better off investing in comodities in the short term and attracting foreign capital to generate human capital in a short period of time. We don't have 50 years and the US backing us off to end up like SK or JP.
Also we have one of the richest mining hubs in the world and the ability to become a super power in terms of energy exports so no, we are not only an agricultural exporting nation
@@matheusGMN Argentina had the largest network of Railways in the entire continent 100 years ago. They had mining and ranching in abundance. The land seems good enough in most places, it's not a barren wasteland. To be honest, Argentina is poor because its people are lazy and corrupt. Japan has way less resources. Korea is tiny. Even England is more productive. South Americans are nice people, always fun at a party. Not so good for working hard and producing exportable goods though.
@@salkoharper2908 Argentina suffers of something called "neoliberalism" it sold everything off that could make any money, and they're facing the results, those industries and railways are dead and will stay that way, they would've to exist now already to be profitable today, but they don't exist anymore, and starting again from 0 won't work anymore
What would save Milei and the Argentinian economy is if growth started to increase dramatically. This should be his priority, but is not easy to achieve. It means reducing government red tape, reducing company taxes, ensuring government workers do not earn more that private sector workers and liberating investment capital. That last is the hardest because Argentina is effectively bankrupt, and has been for decades. Foreign investment is required, and for that a stable economy is required.
"It means reducing government red tape, reducing company taxes, ensuring government workers do not earn more that private sector workers and liberating investment capital."
This doesn't work. You are basically giving corporations free reign and expecting the profits to stay in Argentina instead of being sent abroad. This is a fantasy.
Argentina has not bankrupt. Alongside brazil, they are closed economies but argentina is trading now.
The only problem is that we do not have a legislative majority, in 6 months, the political caste blocked all the Milei laws, when in previous years the opposition allowed anyone else to get more than 70 per year
Ah, so you increase the living conditions of the worker by giving more money to the top 0.1% of the richest people and cutting their taxes. Very smart!
@@glavnibajaumahalu8535 they are ones who pay the most in taxes and those who create jobs so yeah
Of course Argentina was already in plenty of trouble.
But going full anarcho-capitalism was obviously like trying to fight the fire in your house by bringing more gasoline.
he literally predicted this in his very first speech he gave after being elected. Fixing that shite of an economy is not gonna happen in one year.
It took jürgen klopp 4 years to win something with Liverpool and people honestly think fixing an economy is simpler than fixing a broken football club? Thats just ridiculous
You have to reserve Judgement until Argentina enters the 2030s...
Argentina is a economic and political nightmare. It is amazing what Milei was already able to accomplish. To now criticize that he wasn't able to fix every problem until today is not fair. Probably Milei is not going to fix those problems at all, but it seems, that he is the best bet for the Argentinian.
Based on what evidence exactly?
@@wokeeye6441 Based on fanboy drivel.
The title is misleading.He didnt collaspe the Peso
That's TLDR for you. They always use clickbait titles
That's not what the title says.
Did they change the title?
he didnt collapse the peso, but the peso did go from steady decline to collapsing decline under his reign.
@@boarfaceswinejaw4516 So clearly the global central banking system has nothing to do with it.
For the first time in YEARS banks are giving real long term loans for people to afford housing due to the trust the he instills in the values of transparency and frugality. Your vocabulary casts a shadow on the very hard work its being done to eliminate corruption and move up the economic freedom metrics. Best wishes from Argentina
"OMNIBUS" its the name given by the opposition not the real name of the law. Show who you are getting your information from
It sounds like the guy is trying to survive the long-term consequences of silly social democratic and neoliberal policies
My understanding is that destruction of the peso and replacing it with the dollar is Milei's very intention.
but would need a change to the Argentine constitution in order to do that, according to comment above from an Argentine
I think is more about allowing people saving in whatever currency they see fit, he is a libertarian.
And where he get his dollar from?
This video won't age well.
This is far from a "collapse" in Argentine context. This is not the US where these kind of numbers would be a collapse. In real terms, the peso is still far from having followed inflation. For context, the USD-peso rate that Massa left in November 2023 would be equivalent to a $2,500 peso today, so $1,250 today is still much better.
I went in Argentina in 2004 when I was 11 years old and the country was already very broke. So it's difficult to imagine short term solutions to Argentina's problems but it seems correct that they try extreme measures
Eastern Europe is STILL recovering from socialism. It will take some time for Argentina to get back on track.
How is Javier responsible for any of this? Blame his boneheaded, stupid predecessors, not him! They created this mess - Milei is just trying to fix it.
I find it pretty funny how all successes are apparently directly attributable to Milei while all failures are obviously the fault of previous administrations.
Seems like Milei's got his place reserved in Libertarian heaven whatever his actions, or their results.
@@buzhichun this is just argentinian shenaningans ahahhhhaahah
@@buzhichun Can you give the guy a chance, please? He's been in for what, six months or something?
@@buzhichun maybe thats because all the issues that he has were already present in previous administrations, and you can directly link those issues with those previous administrations policies, and that changing the economy that much will inevitably cause short term issues. What people should be looking at are the changes to the status quo, not the constants.
@@buzhichunhe does a better job than the precessors leftist administration
Argie here: that peso bill with Belgrano's face was used before I was even born LOL. Inflation is so high that the 100 bill is bascially the lower bill in circulation (that is commonly used)
Bruh, these are the consecuences of the previous goverment
🙄 yeah, it's certainly not because of rightwing laissez faire economics which have wreaked havoc on every single country that has ever implemented them. That can't be it at all.
0:30 this feels like a teenager's wet dream: i will save my country, i will do that, i will do this, i will rock as a rockstar.. feels like he has some psychological issues
No, it's only a part of his plan, he needs to be popular, so he does whatever only he can to stay popular, and if people buy it, then…
@@NoOne-ix7dg dont get me wrong, i love latin america and argentina but, do argentians need someone being a little bit crazy and put a show to take serious and give him a chance to govern their country.. we (turkey) also have someone love putting a show on stage for the last 20 years, and we cought up to argentine when it comes to economy, he ruined turkey..
Libertarians + some old white Caine.
Every single time.
He’s an economist and the WMF generally agree with his policies
@@aceofspades1217 60% of the population is below the poverty line, his policies are amazing if you're running a company, not so much when it comes to a country.