Tesla FSD 100x Better by June!
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 มิ.ย. 2024
- We're breaking down Elon Musk's latest tweets, ARK Invest's predictions, and the path to a potential robotaxi future. Plus, special guest Hans Nelson sharing expert insights on the evolving FSD ecosystem.
Follow Hans Nelson on X: @HansCNelson
Follow Hans Nelson on TH-cam: @HansCNelson
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
04:34 FSD Version Releases and Improvements
19:44 FSD Progress and Future Predictions
32:10 Future demand for FSD features
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Author is invested in multiple Humanoid companies and is long TSLA and other stocks at time of original video publish date.
Edited by: Roshan Khatiwada
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Do you think that in 2035 with the advent of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) and ASI (Super Artificial Intelligence) they will introduce universal basic income!? a subsidy!? will there be free will!? an era of abundance will begin!? the robot's intellectual and motor capabilities have already surpassed the average human and before 2035 there is talk of them surpassing those of any human and then again those of any human combined! regarding both body and mind! answer me please...
I used FSD 12.3.6 a lot. I know it is safer than me, though edge cases still come up. If I'm in a hurry, I drive. Otherwise I now let FSD drive me as much as possible. I use it as a driver's aid, not a driver's replacement. I have no doubt it reacts faster to danger than this 70-year-old. I also have no doubt it will see things in all directions better than me - no blind spots. Around town I know when not to use it (HOV lane changes, certain intersections where it gets lane choices wrong), and I mostly get a relaxing drive now that I've learned to trust it. Yes, I'm having to manage some aspects (speed) more than I'd like, but it's just another form of driving with a different control set.
This seems like the worst period.
Even the market are now very unpredictable. Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today I am more than 60% down!
I agree just reached my goal of $500k yearly trade earnings. Setting realistic goals is an essential part of trading..
Please educate me, i'm willing to make consultations to improve my situation,
Wait is this the same lady? That helps me with 17k investment “wow" such a small world..
Please how do I find this financial counselor?
I'd love to know this mentor of yours
And FSD is 1000x better by August ! Elon is amazing.
@brighterwithHerbert I think it’s a bit premature to predict exponential improvements release to release at a monthly or two-monthly cadence. We have hardly more than 1 data point, namely Elon’s statement 5x-10x better for 12.4. I think one would have to see this rate of improvement release after release consistently at least for a few months before we can make any predictions on the improvement model. And even then one doesn’t have certainty that all crazy corner cases can ultimately be satisfactorily addressed with the current FSD HW (sensors, compute etc) and SW/AI architecture. But that aside, of course the recent progress is great to see!
@brighterwithHerbert yes I agree with @jochenhmmer. Very misleading and premature to state 100x improvement given we haven’t seen 12.4 yet and the title of the video can be interpreted as click bait. Point of fact, Cathy wood posted on X that Tesla stock would be $2000 by 2030 to which Elon replied on X that it was possible but extremely difficult. If a solved FSD was just around the corner and Elon knew that then why would he say it’s extremely difficult. If and when FSD gets solved the stock price would skyrocket. So no, despite everyones hope and desire, FSD isn’t anywhere near ready and won’t be by robotaxi unveil either judging by Elons response to Cathie Wood.
Guys! FSD is steadily improving. HOWEVER, I have yet to see an order of magnitude improvement in safety and/or driving rule compliance betwee major versions. In my location 12.3.6 has been a clear regression. FSD still has not shown the ability to pluck low hanging fruit such as speeding in active school zones or on entering residential neighborhoods, crossing double yellow lines, merging away from upcoming turns in heavy traffic, double stops at stop signs, creeping into active traffic lanes that force cars in those lanes to take evassive actions, and slowing and even haulting in active traffic lanes when turning to name a few. It also seems clear that each full retraining-cycle is introducing new-cycle-emergent edge-case failures including failures in previously "resolved" issues.
As an engineer and neuroscientist, I can see this product achieving autonomous driving in the foreseeable future. As of this moment, I do not have evidence to predict rapid multiple orders of magnitude improvements in just a few months. I recommend you exercise due caution when making such claims. Full FSD has only been "a year away" for a decade.
I agree. 12.3.6 is almost worthless to me. 12.3.4 was better. For me the biggest issue is how dang slow it is at every single turn. If it's a blind turn (which many in my area are) it's awful. 15-20s to make the turn when there is no traffic.
Couple that with 3x now that 12.3.6 has pulled into an intersection and just stopped I simply won't use it now. I've subscribed for a long time now and this is the worst version for me... yes it feels human like in turns. That's awesome, but I don't trust it at all. The speed issue is annoying and the nag is off the charts.
I want to give glowing reviews, but man I used it a lot and it's not safe for m in the Boston suburbs. Highway it's flat out amazing. Long country drives...amazing. Around town? Worthless.
Well said. Analyst Mark Hawtin says 5-10 years.
All 12.3 versions are mostly the same underneath. 12.4 will let us know how big the jump is
12.3 were the first intervention-free rides for me. I sometimes disengage when it drives too close to curbs(had hit curb once on FSD) etc, but most of my disengagements are not critical. You can let the car do its thing slowly and it will get you to the destination, although some people might get irritated in the process. I consider this not critical and to be improved in future versions.
What does a critical disengagement look like for a car without passenger controls (No steering wheel, or peddles)?
Neural-Operator?! 🤓
A crash 😂
@@Darthmaull0101 Perfecto! 🤌🏾
A very good question.
I am excited about the progress. I am skeptical of the 183 miles per intervention or is it critical interventions that would be more believable. I would like to see the stats for city driving vs highway.
Any info how the pure vision end to end solution can tackle scenario like police car, fire fighter truck, ambulances at the traffic light?
Seems quite a challenge without having audio sensor? Thanks!
I'm not sure why my FSD experience seems different from what you report. I have never had a single drive where I didn't have to take over for a safety critical reason. Usually, this happens more than once. I live in downtown Washington DC so maybe there's more congestion here. But from the way you and your guests talk about it you hardly ever need to disengage.
FYI I'm way long on TSLA so I'm not trying to disparage the company.
How long does computing time take to process 10,000 miles of video?
The selection of the 8/8 date may be based on the completion of FSD to Level 4 or 5 autonomy and/or the timeline for the completion of CyberCab vehicle to display. The 8/8 date may not be based solely on FSD completion.
I have been an FSD user since 2017. I am thrilled with the latest improvements and anticipation of improvements to come. However, I am at a loss to explain a problem that has never been addressed and still fails 100% of the time (in my 2022 Model S). The gates in my home community consist of a single pole that lowers across the road. FSD has never reacted to these gates. It literally would drive right through them if I didn't intervene. It is impossible that they aren't seen. What happened to rule number 1: "Don't ever hit anything."?
Looks like a lot of gates need changing
There is no `rule number 1` .. such a rule would mean drive into a river / over a cliff rather than hit the tree / post .. its a neural net like us every rule has a exception FSD will need to learn your problem but NOT by having `rules`
fixed on fsd 12.7🤣
@@steve.k4735 Elon has emphasized rule number 1 many times...
...from ChatGPT: "Elon Musk has emphasized the importance of safety in Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, famously stating that "rule number one of driving is don’t hit anything, whether you’re human or an AI""
@@steve.k4735 you nailed it
I'd love to hear the Tesla communicate audibly. "Destination reached please exit the vehicle" , "Destination reached FSD is now disabled" or "Destination reached do you wish to park on street or driveway" etc.
Wow! Maybe I'll be off V11 by June!
My main reason for wanting FSD is SAFETY. The conveniences are nice, but I've lived without Summon for 50 years and have done just fine. But if FSD can save my life or someone else's, THAT'S why I want it. And if it prevents just one devastating crash, it's paid for itself.
I think you should do a deep dive into the transition from horses to autos. As there issue with FSD AND electric cars is not any of the things you mention. It's the public's ability to consider the new technology. If you rode a horse all your life and someone tried to sell you a Ford in 1917, what would you say?
March of 9’s coming soon🔥
It better be 10x better at least. 12.3.6 has pulled into an intersection 3x now and just stopped. Never moved until I disengaged and got out of the intersection. I really hope they are getting all the intervention data I send them because 12.3.6 is not very good here. 12.3.4 was actually better for me. Other times.. it amazes me how good it is, but pulling into an intersection and stopping is perhaps the worst thing a car/robotaxi can possibly do.
What did he buy with the money made on the Uber stock sale?
This part of the conversation reminds me of the cruise control function of vehicles. Last year, I did a cross-country drive on the west coast to the East Coast drive. Sometimes driving for 10-13 hours in a day. If I didn't have cruise control, I am absolutely sure the drive would have been a few times harder on body and mind if I was constantly on the break and gas pedals. What's going to happen when I can completely let go of the wheel and more or less halfway pay attention? 33:56
A very rude wake up when something goes wrong.
FSD fully retrained means it is now at part with the previous system line coded. The expention of the end to end network will slowdown since there will be less and less valuable data for improvement. Remember S curve ?
I recently took the plunge and updated the MCU from 2.5 to 3 on our 2019 M3 SR+. Who wouldn't love $99/mo CAD, even with a $1,500 installation charge? At the moment, it's the death-defying version 11.1, but I live in hope. 😉
I would not worry too much about FSD Supervised discounts. I find it hard to imagine Tesla not raising the price both for monthly subscription and permanent license to new highs once FSD Unsupervised is introduced.
The distance between where we are and robotaxi (no accelerator, no steering wheel and no brakes) seems quite large
You mentioned recognition of hand signals by FSD is coming soon. What about the other way around? How will the autonomous Tesla send the equivalent of hand signals to human drivers? Until every vehicle is FSD, there is going to be a need for this. FSD needs to be able fully do the part of the driver and that includes provide visual signals to another driver at intersections, etc. Otherwise there is going to be unacceptable pregnant pauses when these situations occur.
Flashing their high beams perhaps
I finally got the software update notification, but im holding off until after the holiday weekend to upgrade because I will be away. Once I upgrade I will then get the 30 day trial, so I am purposely delaying getting the free trial. Id rather have it for 12.4 anyway
Good plan. Waiting must be hard, though.
@@737smartin actually the update went away. Now I can't update. Very strange
@@ZupE891 🫤
My legacy X doesn't have a cabin camera. Current nag is every 25 seconds. I'm hoping 12.4 lengthens that time, but it's going to take Level 3 to get rid of my nag.
The reason to update you have been waiting for for all these years 🙂
There will be no nag change for cars without cabin cameras.
FSD should listen for other cars honking, that's a kind of intervention it can learn from!
I think it will eventually. Also reacting to emergency vehicles sounds and lights
Is there a point where FSD (Supervised) is free on all Tesla cars and FSD (No one on the driver seat) will be the paid subscription of $100/month?
Interesting idea. Once it's safer than a human anyone can have it, but if you want to netflix and chill you have too fork over the cash. Once people trust it they'll be more likely to pay.
@@Tjmalloy2 My premise actually boils down to there are people who are willing to pay for a chauffeur right now paying maybe $50k/year who will be willing to pay for driverless Tesla for $100/months. And there is a market for that outside the US as well where having a driver is part of the culture, as evidence by how Boris Johnson “got FSD” right away. Versus the typical American who don’t really prefer being driven around and would not pay even $100/months for this. If FSD(supervised) comes with a standard Tesla car though, it’s really a no-brainer for the buying public to buy a Tesla.
Question for Hans. I wonder if now they can incorporate getting honked at as a form of intervention? I think this is the final stage of improvement.
That and pulling into an intersection and stopping... and never moving again. 12.3.6 has had that happen 2x in one intersection and once in another intersection. I literally can't drive 10 min from my house to the gym without 3 real interventions and typically another couple because it's taking turns so slooooooow that people are getting impatient, including me.
The most important to me... take me to work, go make so money and pick me up after work.
How many miles per critical disengagement is acceptable? 100,000? 1,000,000? 10,000,000? I think a level 5 car probably needs to be something on the order of 10M or better.
It’s a great question. I feel while being at human level or a little bit better would save lives, it wouldn’t be acceptable to most of us. Our family member or friend making a driving mistake is one thing (“could have happened to me”), but I don’t think we accept failures by a machine at that level, right? We have around 6M accidents per year (probably many more mistakes) in the U.S. About 3 trillion miles per year. That’s 500,000 miles per accident. That’s about 2 accidents per human in their lifetime. I’d think a robot would have to be at least 10x better than that in miles per accident - maybe 10M miles per accident. If say only 1 in 3~5 mistakes leads to an actual accident, we’d need to see about 30-50M miles per critical incident for robotic driving to be acceptable. Maybe a little less miles, but it’s the correct ballpark IMO.
10x better than a human. Then again what is a human? I never had an accident in 30 years driving and only produced some minor scratches. But then again some humans have major accidents every 5 years. Har d to say what a human actually is. Insurance data should be providing the "average" human and then FSD should be 10x better is my opinion
@@mounirdellagi7091per what I found on Google, I calculated that a “typical” human has about 2 accidents in their lifetime. I suspect that doesn’t include minor scratches in the parking garage or similar incidents, as those might not even get claimed with the insurance nor recorded in any official databases. So about 5-10M miles per minor accident or about 30-50M miles per critical incident (somewhat serious accident or worse) should easily correspond to 10x better than human quality robotic driving, and would likely be a level of performance where society would accept remaining FSD caused accidents.
Where you get your financial advice? Me : Lord pretty Flacco 😂😂😂😂
Udate on Cyber trucks? 2000 a week?
1200 a week
I think FSD should be offered at a cost per mile in addition to lifetime and monthly.
Why?
IMHO Tesla will change to a cost per mile when FSD is more mature with the price including Tesla taking financial responsibility for the vehicle. At that point RoboTaxi will be ready for release.
The driver whether you or FSD has to be responsible especially when the "Supervised" label is removed.
They could offer FSD as-needed: long trips, too much to drink, long shift, etc. Higher unit price ='s $$$$.
Hope that Tesla will utilise Apple Watch with the Tesla App.
1/ Use it as a key to open the car
2/ Use it to summon the car using voice commands
we almost always drive with sunglasses on so the vision wouldn't work.
Yeah, but we still couldn't see 12.4 in action. I need to see how 5-10x improvement looks like. Pleade Tesla hurry up!!
Is Tesla working with NHTSA now and if so what are they doing? Speculation welcome.
Tesla isn't even publishing their disengagement/intervention rate with NHTSA despite nearly all other autonomous vehicle companies publishing their data.
@@TheSpartan3669 Does NHTSA require all companies with ADAS systems (level 2) to give them disengagement/intervention rates or only autonomous vehicle companies (which Tesla is not...yet). If the latter, then what would NHTSA do with the data? It costs money to handle data - they can't pay someone to handle a level 2 system disengagement rate just because a company feels like giving it to them. It would also cost Tesla money to put the data in a form that NHTSA could accept and why would they do it if NHTSA isn't interested in disengagements unless they are from autonomous vehicle companies.
@@juliahello6673 Sorry my info was inaccurate. It's the California DMV that requires this data (and other requirements) in order to obtain a license to test fully autonomous vehicles. Still, even companies that don't have fully autonomous vehicles like Mercedes and Toyota report.
@@TheSpartan3669 Interesting. I found the California DMV 2023 Disengagement Report, but I didn't see Mercedes and Toyota on it. Can you give me the name of the report that they are on? Don't give me a link because TH-cam deletes comments with links on it - I can search on the name. Thanks.
Tesla. Is good.
Tesla will definitely charge private vehicle owners a % of any FSD use as a booked hire service. Also expect Tesla to retain premium FSD features to their own Robotaxi fleet.
Consider a car that can efficiently drive to the best open parking space in a busy mall without wasting time.
It seems that these releases are all about the march of 9s. Each one adds a factor of 10 improvement. 12.4 will be 10 times better, 12.5 will be 100 times better, and 12.6 will be 1,000 times better than today.
Uber says that they have 17000+ miles per interventions. WOW!!!
Why isn’t 12.4 out when Elon promised it will be out (for the employees ) last weekend !?
It's already out for employees
I think there will be more and more free trials as the software becomes better. The better it gets, the harder it gets to gather intervention data. But without complete hands off zero attention required, most people wont want to pay for it
Now if we can fix the labor shortage and individual gross income, people could afford robotaxi as a daily service.
Per Tony Seba, labor shortage will be solved in 20 years such as none of us will have jobs then…
Elon said 12.4 was 5-10x better...but that was without employee testing....and it's been with them for 4 days. So everything is really just a guess bases on models and story-boards.
Grata
Still want to know when the 40%+ of Tesla owners with the older software versions will receive an update so they can use FSD v12. It's really getting OLD!
What car / FSD hardware do you have?
We ve got Elon's attention back into tesla only since his 42 B compensation have been revoke. Many of today's voters on this package are still at loss today or are unable to vote depending where they live or the platform they are using. I am not feeeling too well about the institution vote.
Tesla stock at the moment is one time forward, three time backwards.
From $7K to $45K that's the minimum range of profit return every week I thinks it's not a bad one for me, now I have enough to pay bills and take care of my family.
I agree just reached my goal of $500k monthly trade earnings. Setting realistic goals is an essential part of trading
Please educate me, i'm willing to make consultations to improve my situation,
Sonia campbell. understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. her siignals are top notch
She's recognized as 'Mrs sonia campbell. One of the finest portfolio managers in the field. She's widely recognized; you should take a look at her work.
Don’t be confuse buying the dip in a bear market, with guaranteed future returns. Just because that company is down 60%+ from ATH does NOT make it a sound long-term investment. Make sure you’re investing in great companies. kudos to Sonia campbell
NY comptroller tells funds to vote against musk package.
Lord Flaccid?
I think robotaxis are much sooner than 2-3 years. With current vehicles in certain locations. Will expand everywhere in 2-3 years.
FSD vision base will never work because the car can not see when camera are dirty. Car is blind. The only way would be that 100 % of cars are running the same FSD and talking to each other. It would still need to use GPS position like airplane do. What if a kid in proceeding car make a hand gesture telling you to stop or turn right ? All tesla haters could do the same from the sidewalk.
FSD will liberate older and senior people to get out of their house or place they live. With the help of Optimus life will begin not end. The next thing is Elon will develop better equipments to. Carry people out of there house
Elon needs to deliver on promises and stop selling us bags of air.
Waiting to see if 12.4 is as big as a improvement as he says it is.
@@Tjmalloy2 TRUE. He tends to embellish a bit.
Lord Pretty Flacko chewed Sat’s butt really hard on that Spaces the other day. It was hard to listen to. I hope he was just having a hard day.
I Sold 50% of my shares today
Why ?
🤔50%, sooo, three shares?😆
I’d NEVER, not EVER, go against any of these 🌏 changing companies, teams. 🫶
So you have 1 share left?
If Elon stays, the stock will go way higher eventually. I he's pushed out, it'll dip, then go way higher because then it'll be a car company that Wall Street can understand. Either way investors win in the end.
Oh great, Lord Obnoxious is coming on. Thanks but not thanks.
By June , a 25 to 100 improvement is a false , since that emplies both 12.4 AND 12.5 will come before that , PLUS that 12.5 will improve equally 5x10 X as 12.4 is so far just claimed to be improving 12.3 .
You guys are loosing credibility .
Sorry 😢
Yeah a bit over-enthusiastic. Great progress but will this rate of improvement truly happen remains to be seen. We’ll know more by the autumn.
Do you think that in 2035 with the advent of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) and ASI (Super Artificial Intelligence) they will introduce universal basic income!? a subsidy!? will there be free will!? an era of abundance will begin!? the robot's intellectual and motor capabilities have already surpassed the average human and before 2035 there is talk of them surpassing those of any human and then again those of any human combined! regarding both body and mind! answer me please...
You can't pay someone something for nothing without having negative impact. How about lowering taxes? Make it more profitable for people to be independent.
@@mcgch46e80 but shut up, anything can be done, banks produce money out of nothing, governments hide inventions and secrets from us like perpetual motion (that would be infinite energy), they make you believe what they want, gold, saying that the technology isn't good enough. the sun is a nuclear reactor in the sky and they don't exploit it like wind and water and many other resources, they give you those cheap solar panels and those wind turbines that have to be stuck in...... YOU CAN IT'S ALL SCIENCE FICTION AND IT'S ALL REALITY. Except that gold is wanted by a population of ignorant slaves like you who don't wake up!!! There are no negative sides, they create them for you and they give them to you because they are huge s....
LOL herbert, why would tesla waste time generating fake movies eith compute. It ALL GOES TO OPTIMUS. Unless elon leaves cuz he gets no pay lol
You guys sound like the string quartet on the titanic.
Tesla is dead money in 2024. Maybe it will do a bit better in 2025.
Please don't believe everything Elon says. I like Elon, but I stopped believing everything he says
Bro interviewing Hans Nelson is almost useless on these same topics.
Hans! 🫵🏽🥂🎬
Why isn’t 12.4 out when Elon promised it will be out (for the employees ) last weekend !?
12.4 was released to employees on Monday so Elon was maybe a day late or the reporting was a day late, such a crime by Elon