PAKISTAN | War with Iran?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 13 มิ.ย. 2024
- In January 2024, tensions flared between Iran and Pakistan after a series of retaliatory strikes against Baloch insurgents along their shared border. Despite a history of good relations, this escalation has raised concerns of a potential major conflict between the neighbouring nations amid growing instability in the Middle East and surrounding areas.
Iran and Pakistan are located at the crossroads of the Middle East and South Asia. Despite their different ethnolinguistic and religious backgrounds, they share a history of cultural exchanges and cooperation dating back centuries. However, tensions have recently emerged. These have been centred on Pakistan's ties with Azerbaijan and Iran's support for Shia militant groups in the Middle East. Additionally, bilateral issues, such as a stalled gas pipeline project and the escalating Baloch insurgency, have further strained relations. Spanning Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, the Balochistan conflict traces its origins back to the partition of India in 1947. Economic neglect, religious persecution, and the presence of militant groups have fuelled this ongoing conflict, leading to attacks on security forces in Pakistan and Iran. However, despite cooperating in the past, tensions have recently grown as both governments accused each other of failing to control the insurgent groups along their porous border. In January 2024, Iran conducted preemptive drone and missile strikes against alleged insurgent targets in Pakistan, prompting Pakistan's retaliation. While diplomatic efforts resulted in a de-escalation, underlying issues and regional instability continue to challenge their relationship, raising concerns about future flashpoints along the border.
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VIDEO CHAPTERS
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:41 Insurgencies and International Relations
02:09 Iran and Pakistan: Location and Population
03:04 The Historical Relationship between Iran and Pakistan
04:37 Iranian-Pakistani Relations: Afghanistan to the Present
05:50 Growing Tensions Between Iran and Pakistan
06:56 The Balochi People in Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan
07:49 The Roots of the Balochi Insurgency in Pakistan
11:18 January 2024 Iran-Pakistan Crisis
13:41 An Iran-Pakistan Conflict?
SOURCES AND FURTHER READING
Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs
mofa.gov.pk/
Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
en.mfa.ir/
Iran-Pakistan | 1950 Treaty of Friendship
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#Iran #Pakistan #Balochistan
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The recent crisis between Iran and Pakistan was a really interesting development. The two countries have historically had an extremely close and friendly relationship. However, the tension over ongoing Baloch insurgencies appeared to push them over the edge and spark a military tit-for-tat strike. But is this just a one-off incident that will soon be forgotten? Or is part of a deeper friction between the two countries tied to broader international developments in the Middle East and beyond? As always, I look forward to hearing your thoughts and comments below.
I don't know, an incidence like this doesn't seem to be that is easily forgotten...
muslims fights muslims is nothing new I think pakistan is weak so if iran politically. both dont have the guts nor patience to fight any more if cowardly missles is the way they will do it but dno direct confirmation with the two militaries. I think its high time muslim people looked in the mirror and too their leader and asked why their in those position of power. peoples situatuiion is no good.
Thank you for your enlightening explanation. A conflict I knew little about. It would be interesting to explain the link with USA and Iran + USA and Yemen. The first thing that always come to my mind is : ok, what is behind any religious argument ? What natural ressources, monetary gain is linked ? Who gains from this conflict and what is gained ? Not just what triggered it but what was building up. Notice how conflicts pop up as cost of living high rockets, there are energy crisis, increasing poverty, increasing gap between super rich, middle class and poor, drastic cuts in public services, worries about scarecity of water, sand, etc. Plus the aspiration of billionaires to increase their wealth. And how somehow the idea of getting back tax evasion money has been swept under the rug ? -- Thank you. Hope my English is ok.
Also, although not totaly related to the subject i want to express my suprise at the high number of population in some countries such as the two here. Specially Pakistan's neighbouring USA's on a much smaller area/surface. I live in Canada, 2/3 north of where i live the population is scarce because of the cold, but we still have a total population of around 23 millions on a much greater area/surface. Those high number of population on a limited spaces with limited ressources cause also high strains on answering human needs and could sadly but understandebly cause conflicts. -- Although those fighting might do it with religious beleif, I kind of question the leaders motives. Thank you.
I suspect the former. Both nations have enough crap to concern themselves with elsewhere, especially Iran.
As an ethnic Pasthoon and born in that region from the Pakistan side, I am really impressed by the way you presented this in a comprehensive and in a non controversial manner. You have earned a subscriber.
Thank you so much. I really and truly appreciate the support. A very warm welcome to the channel. And thanks for the kind words about the video. I wanted to try to explain the situation as clearly as I could. I am so glad that you felt that I managed to do it.
r u from Quetta?
I am going to be honest to say that while i expected many things this year, i did not expect this
Yes. The world really is turning upside down! The question is why exactly did this happen? And is this just a blip in relations? It seems so strange that two countries with such a long history of good relations should have such a spat.
@@JamesKerLindsay the iran pakistan relations have been rocky for a while now. Much of it has to do with failed gas deals and persecution of Shia muslims in pakistan.
@@JamesKerLindsay Thank you for your enlightening explanation. A conflict I did not know about. It would be interesting to explain the link with USA and Iran + USA and Yemen. The first thing that always come to my mind is : ok, what is behind any religious argument ? What natural ressources, monetary gain is linked ? Who gains from this conflict and what is gained ? Not just what triggered it but what was building up. Notice how conflicts pop up as cost of living high rockets, there are energy crisis, increasing poverty, increasing gap between super rich, middle class and poor, drastic cuts in public services, worries about scarecity of water, sand, etc. Plus the aspiration of billionaires to increase their wealth. And how somehow the idea of getting back tax evasion money has been swept under the rug ? -- Thank you. Hope my English is ok.
Its poverty ,illeteracyand unemployment. With all the copper and molybdenum deposits ,education can change this region@@JamesKerLindsay
@@JamesKerLindsay From what I am hearing as a Pakistani..
It wasn't suitable for either country to mount an attack on their own soil against their own people (Baloch on both sides of the border) so they agreed that they will take out their enemies on each other's soil.
Iran had India funded groups attacking Pakistan...
Pakistan has Arab funded groups attacking Iran...
India was oil market for Iran... Hence the Iranians couldn't do much.
Arabs were likewise an economic help to pakistan also..
So to avoid all this mess and nonsense... They just decided to strike each other's territory to take out their enemies.
Having said that.. There are also many other variables at play...
Iran hit Pakistan aswell as Iraq and Syria.... To show Americans that they can expect retaliation on Israel...
The Pakistanis response to Iran also sent out a message to India and Afghanistan... Both of which have been abit trigger happy towards Pakistan last few years...
Then there is also the China factor.... Last year China brokered an agreement between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia.... Now the Chinese have also stepped in to calm tensions between Pakistan and Iran..... Making it seem that the vacuum the Americans left in middle east is being eyed by the Chinese.
Who drew borders in the Middle East, it was the English without taking into account people groups like the Kurds who are treated unfairly! Unresolved conflict left only suffering. I am not a Kurd, but there is love for Kurds.Thanks James!
You aren't completely wrong, but since different ethnicities and religious groups live side-by-side all around the world, it's literally *IMPOSSIBLE* to draw conflict-free borders. Instead of emphasizing unrealistic fairytale borders to "correctly" partition people, we must emphasize freedom of speech, freedom of religion, and respect of human rights.
Stop wasting time blaming the British for their incompetent borders. If Kurdistan gained independence today, what would happen to the non-Kurdish people in Kurdistan?
Nonsense, a lot of the borders were drawn to protect certain ethnic groups - for instance when independence was granted to India - the Sikh and Hindu majority had not forgotten the centuries of brutal dictatorship, poverty and exploitation under Mughal rule (against the the relatively benign British Raj) the "Indians" wanted revenge - this was why East and West Pakistan were formed - to give the Muslims a place of refuge from angry Sikhs and Hindus. Similarly Jordan is largely a Palestinian state - not that they let self proclaimed Palestinians in these days because they cause trouble for the ruling elite. There are always going to be smaller ethnic groups that get a raw deal - but to say ethnicity was not considered is just plain wrong - that exactly how the lines were drawn up. An of course the whole notion of India herself is pretty-much a British invention, it was a loose region made up of many tribes under much-hated Mughal rule - the British Raj effectively formed modern India as we know it today with a single set of borders and values under common law. Is this a good thing or a bad thing? Who knows, but if you're a proud Indian - thank the British for giving you a national identity.
As others observe this about trying to blame others. The British ( not English, there is a difference) created almost all the borders in Africa. But African nations, for all their problems, do not dispute each others borders. Agree there should be a Kurdish state incidentally. There is a de facto one in northern Syria
@@jontalbot1 On the other hand many of the tribes that exist in Africa would be long gone by now if it was not for colonialism because the Zulus were working their way through other tribes at an alarming rate - which the British stopped and (ironically) slavery gave captured men from other tribes a values which saved their lives!
@@LondonSteveLee Yes but the point l meant to make is African nations do not attack each other on the basis of claiming territory. We tend to see Africa through the lens of war and poverty and there are many civil wars. They are new nations and extremely ethnically diverse but they all recognise arguing over borders would be a recipe for non stop war.
As a Pakistani the Iranians and the bloch are both our brothers, this conflict is artifical, it'sfunded and supported by foreigners to make us fight.
I've been waiting for all the geopolitical analysts I follow in TH-cam to cover this issue. Nothing in days.
Finally, it's been you, professor.
Thank you.
Thanks so much. I really wanted to look at this topic. It is such a fascinating relationship. Sadly, the video is doing really badly. This is one of my worst performing videos in a while. I’ve tried changing titles and thumbnails. But nothing works. It is such an interesting topic, and yet it seems to be attracting very little interest!?
@@JamesKerLindsay Well, the TH-cam algorithm is something that drives creators crazy. I don't consider myself a "real" one as I don't even have my channel monetized yet (waiting for approval right now) but I know a few and they really suffer and struggle trying to understand it and "offering" it the right content with the right presentation, keywords and whatsoever so they receive back the expected promotion and views (I read an article written by an anthropologist about how creators worship the algorithm with this "offers" establishing a very interesting parallelism with offers to the gods in primitive religions, as funny as it may sound). Personally my channel was shadowbanned for five months because I showed how the Hezbollah memorial is from the inside.
So my final advice would be: keep up with this good work and research you give to us. It's quality and objective content. Thousands of us really appreciate it. And let's forget about this damn algorithm 😅
Best regards!
@@Viajesygeopolitica Thanks so much. It is incredibly frustrating. Obviously, we all put a lot of time and effort into making our videos. It’s a shame to see them fall flat. But there’s really not much one can do. Sometimes a topic just doesn’t get traction. The problem is that YT experiments on subscribers first, if they don’t really respond then it doesn’t push it out further. This works for channels well where the content is essentially always the same - camera reviews, etc. - but is less good when you have a channel built around. Abroad theme but the specific topic changes each week. Our subscribers like international politics. But they’re not all interested in the same topics. It’s about hitting the sweet spot of choosing topics that can not only fire up subscribers who are interested in the region that’s being coveted in ten video, but also generating enough interest in those who aren’t. It’s not easy. And of course, there’s the strange YT waves. Sometimes you get a series of great views and the. It stops and it’s a quieter period. I’ve learned to accept this more and more as time goes on. It’s frustrating. But you just push on. Just don’t let it rule your life. And take a break if you need it.
Good luck with your channel!
@@JamesKerLindsay Thank you again, professor. I think that's the wise way to embrace all this chaos and uncertainty. We cannot and we shouldn't feel overwhelmed by the unpredictable and unfair ruling of this algorithm.
Keep in mind that for many of us your channel is a reference on geopolitical actuality. And that is priceless.
All the best!
The creation of Balochistan and Kurdistan will lead to stability in the Middle East
So many conflicts around the world
Yemen - Houthis
Iran-Pakistan
Guyana-Venezuela
Ukraine-Russia
China-Taiwan
Myanmar civil war
Sudan civil war
DRC-Rwanda
Israel-Palestine
It really is truly worrying how many major conflicts we are seeing at the moment.
Very stressful.😢
North Korea and South Korea potentially.
@@susanwestern6434
That's gonna be a good one, since there's no formal Peace Treaty between the Two sides, just an Uneasy Armstice.
This situation benefits the American Military Industrial Complex the most and will make it difficult for a lasting peace treaty on the Korean Peninsula. 😮
Only USA and India is not any war
Iran and Pakistan are never allies, especially given Saudi Arabia’s enormous weight inside Pakistani politics, so close relationship is a misnomer. Iran has even designed plans for Pakistan in case there is a war because there is a huge lack of trust between them. Let’s not forget there are a lot of stories in Pakistan that its Shia population is being recruited by Iran to go to war in the Middle East, with some returning home to spread Iranian ideology. Since the Pakistani government has long been influenced by Saudi, Pakistan has been cracking down on Shias very hard, further escalating Iranian attempts to spread its version there.
The only difference is, Iran needs Pakistan to stay neutral, perhaps attributed to Pakistan having nukes. Meanwhile Pakistan also wants Iranian neutrality in conflict with India. Simply put, their relations are not built on friendship, but with manageable suspicion. Until now.
@DariuszDrudka I cannot like your comment enough.
The relationship between Pakistan and Iran's regional hegemonic rival, Saudi Arabia, seems to have been overlooked in the research for this video.
In Western wargaming about an invasion of Iran, it is assumed that Pakistan moves to "assume security responsibilities" in Iran's Baloch regions.
If they both want to annex each other's territory they do not have a trusting relationship.
@@phelimridley6727 This isn't about annexing territory. Why would they need to annex land when they already have a lot of difficulties to understand each other? They don't want Balochistan independence to disrupt their interests, but, at the same time, they don't communicate very often. Sure, Pakistan isn't Saudi Arabia, but it is not an Iranian ally.
This is not a relationship based on trust, but, as I mentioned, manageable suspicion. They distrust each other, but not seeking a total war is their way. They still keep communication, but they never want to reveal completely 100%. They hide something, they don't want to talk, but they have to pretend like they are actually in a friendship.
Ironically, Winston Churchill was correct, only national interest... is forever.
@@luishernandezblonde
From my reading of the situation over many years Balochi separatism is not a majority-held opinion. Yes, Balochi nationalism is strong across the Balochi- speaking region (in Iran, Pakistan and in Afghanistan). But this confidence in identity does not automatically translate into support for sovereign statehood. Yes, there are substantial Balochi organisations dedicated to bringing into reality Balochi sovereign statehood. But outside of widespread popular support and/or international sponsorship this aspiration will not happen.
The only external agency that supported Balochi separatism was the USSR. Testimony points to liaisons between the group called the Independent Balochistan Movement and the KGB. It has been suggested that the USSR was intending to gradually extend towards the Indian Ocean via an allied Afghanistan, and in time a Balkanised Pakistan.
Do you dismiss the possibility there is desire for territorial expansion of adjacent Balochi-speaking lands by either Iran or Pakistan ?
Irredentist political rhetoric exists on both sides of the border. The degree to which this has any support in ruling circles is anyone's guess. In Pakistan, there is talk of wanting to liberate Sunni Balochs "repressed" by the Shiite government. Simultaneously in Iran it is possible to find Pan-Iranist references to the peoples of Western-created neighbouring Pakistan, particularly the strategically-located Balochi people.
Someone is trying to make trouble for Iran when you consider what else is going on in the wider region.
@@phelimridley6727 This whole thread has been interesting. As a white westerner, I have no interest, but would still like to thank the community members and (indirectly) the Professor for his review.
Shiasm isn't only an ideolgy in pakistan. A lot of these shia ppl actually have iranian ethnic backgrounds. They have more than infiktrsted but this is also a cross over.
I'm from Pakistan, and I can tell you that Pakistan and Iran are not enemies.
Just like Pakistan establishment (Mil/ISI) there is also an Iranian establishment (IRGC) which sometimes overturn decisions by civilian government.
Thanks. Is this the general view in Pakistan? How are people there reading the recent events? Do they feel that there is a deeper reason behind all this and what could it be?
@@JamesKerLindsay many of us are disappointed in both governments. Pakistan has faced terrorism at the hands of militant Islamist groups like Jaish al Adl in the past, while Iran has faced terrorism at hands of seperarists such as the BNA. Both countries are harboring snakes that will someday turn around and bite their masters. It's pointless and can be avoided. Not to mention that the strikes killed Baloch people on either side of the border, this will only increase Baloch discontent against Islamabad and Tehran.
@@JamesKerLindsay some people in Pakistan are saying that, the recent escalation was pre planned between both of the governments to suppress the legitimate concerns of the Baluch people.
I Must confess this video to me feels highly accurate, effective, informative and un biased. You seem to have earned a subscriber please continue your work on the path of the truth!
Always super informative! Look forward to each new release!
Hi professor. Have you ever thought of doing a video on the Assyrian people? They have one of the oldest cultures in the world and they have gone through so much hardship in the last century with events such as the Assyrian genocide by Ottoman forces and their exodus from Iraq after the US invasion. How significant were and might still be their attempts to create their own state, especially in comparison with the Kurds (since a lot of their territories overlap)?
It will be probably biased and pro-Turkish as the one who made for Greek-Turkish conflict. He whitewashes the genocides committed by the Turks, because Turkey is in NATO, an ally of USA and UK.
So, may be idea of creation of separate monoethnic state for every folk is flawed?
@@FalconfromRF maybe the idea of simply letting colonisers draw the borders is also flawed no?
I would love to see a video on the Assyrian people
Türkler dünyada hiçbir millete soykırım yapmadı yapmaz Türkler soykırımcı diyenler kendi tarihlerine baksın
Another excellent commentary James. In my view this hostility between pakistan and Iran has been simmering for a long time. Iran, a shia country has known that Sunni Pakistan, has always sided with Sunni Arabs and the delicate balance has been possible only because both countries have formidable Milataries and do not wish a direct confrontation. But, until this faccade, both have been quietly supporting opposition and dissent in each other's countries. The cnage has come because, an independent Afghanistan has a a border issue with Pakistan along the Durrand line and Iran is fishing in these waters. Equally, Pakistan is supporting Sunni dissent in Iran. Therefore, all this talk about Islamic solidarity only is against the west but internal fissures are plenty
This was a really really helpful video when many others just hurt my head...
Would love to see one on Afghan and there relationship with the 2 nations,
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it. I did a video on Pakistan and Taliban a little while back th-cam.com/video/TjaIj-54W-U/w-d-xo.htmlsi=v4V4aY0GPzgaiLmi
About Taliban you said "trained and financed by Pakistan" let me correct you Taliban were trained and financed by Pakistan, USA and Saudi Arabia.
Yes you are absolutely right Taliban was supported by Saudis American & Pakistan intelligence agencies but only from 1979 to 1991 when it was soviet invasion of afghanistan led to a clash of strategic dominance over afghanistan between the soviet & US led western block where Saudis & pakistani state was also part of the same Western block of US but after 10 years vacuum of uninterested by western powers towards afghanistan & then 9/11 terror attacks in US totally change the equation & as a result of which US launched military campaign against Taliban / Alqueada network in Afghanistan where Pakistan despite playing as an ally of US provided American troops with its Airbases & others vital infrastructure like providing land routes from kasim port in karachi sindh to the khybar pass for the sustainment of US/NATO military campaign in Afghanistan & in return Pakistan get lots of economic aid financial support & military aid from the US but behind the scenes Pakistan military establishment played double role & played both sides of the fence with their covert support to Afghan Taliban as part of its strategy to establish friendly afghan Taliban Govt in kabul which can fulfill Pakistan desire to have afghanistan as it's strategic backyard vis a vis india . But it's another thing that afghan taliban regime doesn't proven to be as much friendly as much Pakistan military establishment wished for rather afghan taliban regime proving itself as headache for Pakistan where afghan taliban overtly covertly supporting TTP & Balloch insurgent groups much to the dislike of Pakistan
@@vinodkaka5225 What you mentioned that post soviet afghan war Pakistan played double role, this is nothing more than one's opinion or conspiracy theory to hide the failures of USA and it's allies in Afghanistan, Pakistan cleared Taliban from it's North west after a long operation called "zarb e azb" Pakistan also did multiple operations before zarb e azab to counter Taliban, Pakistan held millions of Afghanis in Pakistan as refugee, Pakistan is a country with most sacrifices in war against terror in terms of number of ppl died and economic loss as well.
Both countries blamed each other for harbouring insurgents in their areas but no one take action against them. There is trust deficit between them which escalated the situation. Dialogue , cooperation and joint actions against those involved in terrorism in both sides is essential to prevent such kind of unfortunate and unexpected event in the future. The world needs peace and can't afford war anymore.
Idk, this sounds like they're actually just helping each other. Iran destroying balochistan bases in Pakistan, and Pakistan destroying balochistan bases in Iran
@Dotcando lol that assuming both country don't have assets on those base.
Pakistan is at fault tbh isi uses ALL groups for their advantage even when they're groups that are enemies of the Pakistan state
I agree but on the other hand it would be pretty cool if the baloch people had their own country, though that is highly unlikely to happen as things go
Both are known sponsors of terrorism but only one has the support of United States
Professor gives the best international analysis. Right on topic and interesting.
Thank you so much, Martin. I appreciate it enormously. Have a great weekend.
Thank you for taking the time to post this.
Thanks a lot. That’s really kind of you to say. Always appreciated. 🙏🏻🙂
Hello, Professor. Love your videos since binge-watched your channel about a year ago. Just a tiny bit of feedback: can we have a few seconds of silence/bgm at the end of the video? I usually listen to them while doing stuff through a "Watch Later" playlist and, before switching to the next one, I like to stop playback and read comments - or at least gather my thoughts briefly. But now the end is so abrupt I'm always late. Hopefully, this makes some sense :) Thank you anyways!
Good to hear about your awareness
This is one of the very best videos I have seen on the channel. The density of information is incredible - and there is so much background that rarely if ever makes it into Western media. It is no wonder you had to extend the format from the customary 10 minutes to more like 15.
I do hope hope the Professor reads this however his time is precious and we are lucky to get what we get
I am so very happy to find a objective informative channel on conflict, and statehood. Thank you professor. With interest from / sweden
Professor, as a Kuwaiti citizen thank you so much for putting these videos together and spreading very important knowledge. Much love and wishing you all the best 👍👍
Thank you so much! I really and truly appreciate it enormously. And very best to you too!
Kuwaití ?? Noooo !!! Siii Irakí ....
@@heliogalvez1800 Kuwait is a sovereign nation my friend. All love and respect to Iraq and its citizens. Your comment is indicative of your lack of knowledge about the middle east. This is a great opportunity to immerse yourself in knowledge of the region, especially with the professor's amazing content 😁
Once again thank you James. I respect your analysis of international affairs so much you are, to use a phrase from my career before retirement (Information Management), my primary source of truth. Thank you so much for spending the time and effort in informing us.
Thank you so much! That's incredibly kind. I really do enjoy putting these videos together. It takes a lot of time and work, but comments like this make it all worth it. It really is appreciated!
We are allies of convenience, not based on mutual partnership. In the past, the Shah supported Pakistan in the conflict with India, but never went further to destabilise tie with India since our goal was to prevent the Russians. Simultaneously, the Islamic regime needs to find a justification, and Pakistan, being a Sunni regime, is a perfect scapegoat. Moreover, Pakistan is strongly influenced by Saudi Arabia, a country we deeply resent, therefore working with Pakistan is never an option, unless we have enough troubles to handle. Pakistan is where jihadists were trained, then they planted attack everywhere.
It's never about brothership, it is about relevant interests. I repeat, Iran and Pakistan are not brothers or allies. Never been at all.
Despite all this Iran owes it nuclear program to Pakistanis. Without Pakistan's active support and backup Iran wouldn't be in a position today to look Americans in the eye.
So Iran support Pakistan against India and we Indian think Iran is our friend Iran should better does friendship with India is much stronger than Pakistan they should don't destroy relationship with India for Pakistan
Excellent research based analysis. You are or your research team is hard working.
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it. It’s just me! I dream of a research team (and an editor, and a graphic designer). :-)
Excellent analysis. Since this is a suspicious relationship, both indeed assist opposing groups.
Thank you so much.
well done James, this is quite accurate.
Thank you!
Your the best!
Thanks so much, Shawn. I just wish this video was doing a bit better! :-)
Prof, I made sure I gave it a like, and I have also told other folks to watch to get better understanding. You did a great job, Sir.@@JamesKerLindsay
Really great case study. Good job Man ❤👏
Thank you so much!
Best channel 👍👌..
I liked your work, effort and research.
Great Job.
Thank you so much!
I am just here to mention that the ICJ basically found Israel not guilty, but told them to avoid genocide to throw a bone against them.
You're providing a great service James. Nuanced and articulate. The world is a better place for your efforts. Shukran.
Thanks very much Professor. I was mostly interested in the historical aspect of this conflict and I am surprised that this issue hasn't been coming up in political discussions as often as Kurdistan's issue.
I have 2 questions, which you or others, may be able to answer:
1. Why now? Why did this tension ignite specifically NOW? What happened? What or who triggered this?
2. Who is currently supporting and training those people (whether you call them freedom fighters or separatists or other things...) and what are their reasons for helping them?
Good information
Thanks
Thank you so much, Kim! That is incredibly kind of you. I really and truly appreciate the support. Have a great rest of the weekend and a good week ahead.
I look forward to your uploads every week, thanks again, Professor
Thank you so much. It’s always incredibly nice to hear. And I really and truly appreciate it. It makes it all worthwhile. Have a great weekend!
Appreciate the vids, James. Thank you.
Cheers a lot. I really appreciate it. Have a great weekend!
I’m sorry I have two quick questions. When you say Pakistani security forces do mean you the police, army or ISI or some mix of the 3? Also if the Balochi people had a theoretical state who they align with regarding the various major issues?
Edit: Very sorry I made a couple of small errors.
Thanks. It is certainly all three parts of Pakistan’s security apparatus. Balochistan is a very real problem for Pakistan. I did a video a couple of years ago where I looked at the geopolitical element of the issue for Pakistan. As for where an Balochistan state would stand, it would seem all but impossible to tell at this stage. If one were to emerge it would be caught between Iran and Pakistan. Does it go with one or other, try to steer a neutral course, or align with an outside power, be it the US or China (its powers could be vital to Beijing - hence the current issue.)
@@JamesKerLindsay thank you very much James. I am unsure of your title of address but that is fascinating. So just to confirm to someone as dense as myself you're saying all 3 (or more, sorry) branches of the security forces try to keep the Balochi rebels in line in this situation? I dont always see eye to eye with you but I sincerely appreciate the fact that I always walk away more knowledgeable for your content. Have a wonderful day.
The Baloch have asked India many times to recognize them
@@navylaks2 no Baloch has, some South Indian looking man called Mama Qadeer whilst living in India has said this 🤣🤣
This conflict won't get out of hand anytime soon but the Pakistani military junta will keep poking at Iran from time to time to keep the US, KSA and UAE happy.
A good study and quite an excellent presentation of the topic. As a Pakistani I say it was very deep analysis. You earned a subscriber. ❤
Thank you so much. I really and truly appreciate it. A very warm welcome to the channel!
You figures regarding Pakistan seem a little off, your percentages add up to 110%.
The population according to last year's census is around 250 million, including all territories.
Otherwise excellent analysis.
That's just nuts. 🌰🥜🌰🥜🌰
@@paulheydarian1281 what is?
@@youknow6968
The population of the Subcontinent. It's growing so fast and poverty is growing exponentially. I wish them the best of luck, but the land cannot sustain all these people and their children. There will have to be a farming revolution, and then there's healthcare, education, infra-structure, housing, etc...Where is the money for all this supposed to come from?🤔😬🤯
I hope you like my emojis. 😉
@@paulheydarian1281 subcontinent?
I think you seem confused. Anyway population is a mixed issue these days. Countries that practiced hardcore controls are now crying about lack of people.
And, very few countries are actually growing, most are stable, or in decline.
I don't know what to like about your emojis, as they make no sense, I'm more interested about what you write.
Oops. He probably just misspoke
Y'know, you sound like a younger version of that famous German guy. The one who was on Rick and Morty, the second Interdimensional Cable episode.
Long Live Pakistan Iran Brotherhood
Finally! A video about this underreported area!
Thank you. It is a really fascinating issue that doesn’t get enough attention.
Every week I’m just waiting for your videos. Thank you very much!
There are also people originally baloutchis in Oman.
Thanks. It’s really interesting to hear that. It would make sense given Oman’s proximity Iran and Pakistan.
@@JamesKerLindsay thank you for taking the time to respond. Actually I went many times to Oman between 1981 and 1995 and noticed that many people had as family name Al Baloutchi . I presume this represented their original tribal affiliation but I have no idea how much of their culture they had kept. Oman is an interesting country where people have quite diverse origins. As traders and sailors they were very connected to populations around the Indian Ocean, from Africa to Indonesia. Their history is very different from that their Gulf Arab neighbors. They had relatively close ties to Iran and probably Pakistan.
@@albertlevert2988 I would really love to go Oman. It sounds fascinating and looks truly beautiful.
Baloch is biggest ethnic group in Oman approximately 52 percentage of Oman population
@@comparisonmoviesandsportda4925 thank you for bringing this additional information.
Excellent
Thank you very much.
Thanks Prof👍🏻👍🏻🇦🇺
Professional and Neutral overview.
Thank you so much.
The reason why Iran is so destabilizing is that power from the centre is weak, allowing the Revolutionary Guards in particular to take actions without reference to anyone else. Cooperation may exist between the foreign ministers but that does not bind elements in the RG to undertake actions as they see fit
Pakistan and Iran had historically no disputes. Neither they had any border dispute nor had any terrorial disputes. It's all about political issues otherwise both nations consider themselves as brother nation.
It was also suggested that these missile strikes by Iran were connected to the (IS?) terrorist attacks at the memorial for general Soleimaini though. How did this play into it? Is there actually a connection between IS and Balochi groups? Or was it just a show of force by Iran?
The propaganda storm has been very fierce in the past several months. It's going to be hard to get clear answers to questions like that for a while.
Yeah, it's very annoying.
People from Pakistan are very close to Persian culture. Disputes in the future need to be addressed through diplomacy only. Balochistan also requires greater investment. I hope this was a blip and I'm deeply saddened by the loss of life.
They are influenced by it. And yes there is a common Indo-Iranic link but this dates back to the Bronze Age.
@user-dc4bl1cu2k I'm sure you are aware that the Urdu language borrows significantly from Farsi. Reading Urdu poets such as Ghalib and Iqbal requires some knowledge of Farsi. Then there's the religious influence, especially amongst the sufis and Shia. Persian culture influences both everyday life and high culture in Pakistan.
Great video! Thank you
The identity of one of the women killed in the aftermath of Pakistan Army's missile attacks in Saravan has been confirmed. The name of this woman is "Najma Baloch." It's noteworthy that at least four children and three women were killed following the missile attack on residential areas by the Pakistan Army. The Pakistan Army and the Revolutionary Guards are targeting the residential homes of Baloch citizens in the territories of both countries. The Balochistan Human Rights Group, expressing concern over the targeting of residential areas by the Pakistan Army and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, calls for international organizations to intervene to safeguard the lives and rights of women and children.
#BHRG".shame on Pakistan and Iran
By the way we are Baloch Balochi is our language we Baloch get offended when someone call us Balochi
Thank you. Point well taken.
Yes, it's the same with Afghans always being killed Afghani, which is the local currency
Both countries proved that they harbour te#ro#ist to protect their national interest😂
Regards and love from INDIA.
Our boy James Ker-Lindsay with the latest news 🗣
But fr, I'm really concern about the number of conflicts in the world right now. I feel the world very tense
And actually in the numbers of time that Iran has been mentioned in those, one way or another (Yemen/Houthis, Pakistan and Israel-Palestine/Hezbollah)
Almost like they're the root of the problem
Pakistan and Iran want a freed Palestine but don't want a free Balochistan is the funniest thing I ever saw
Exactly. The Islamic world is largely hypocritical WRT Israel-Palestine
Baluchestan was always part of our nation and baluchies are iranic people.
@@SinaZarin but they're sunni
@@elguapo90 and?
They say they are not iranian and don't want to be a part of iran. But for some reason their oppression by iran is swept under the rug. The irony is inescapable.
4:23 You (correctly) say "Shia" here but the captions (incorrectly) say "Sunni".
Thanks. I didn’t realise. Putting these videos together requires dealing with huge amounts of information. Sometimes small errors creep in. Many apologies.
@@sait_koca The (default) English captions on this video are not auto-generated, as they're not listed as such. Or at least they're not auto-generated by TH-cam. It's, of course, possible that James used some off-platform tool to generate them, but my guess is that probably not. In fact, auto-generated English captions are also an option you can select on this video and they, unlike the "normal" English captions, actually correctly recognize that James said "Shia" in the part I referred to.
Very useful. I really appreciate the historical context.
Of course, at this time Pakistan is in bad shape both economically and politically. Iran has its problems outside of the Baloch region.
Perhaps a confrontation in this region will force Iran to pull back on some of the other regions where it is causing trouble.
Thanks a lot. Good point. I can see the logic to that - although it will stir up those who believe that all this has been orchestrated from outside for precisely this reason! :-)
@@JamesKerLindsay Yes, it was the CIA. It's always the CIA.
Wait... Not one word about the water crisis on the border? Really??
No war happening between the two countries .
An eternal location of friction. This area has been a place of concern for both Pakistan & Iran for decades. It seems to be an area of failed cultural assimilation which should be a natural bi-product of cultural change & development.
Tribalism is a component of human development, but it should not be an enternal aspect within societies.
Machiavellian political actors will seek methods to derive political power, and if tribialism is useful, that method will be used.
The source to defuse conflict is through cultural assimilation. The hybrid culture which develops over time will be a source of unity within a nation.
Thanks for highlighting this area of conflict in our world today.
Well....wish you had touched upon the immense smuggling operations over that border, Iranian gasoline, Afghani heroin and Pakistani arms go through that border, lot of nexus between the state establimemt and these criminal network who in turn have links to insurgents
Thanks. I did touch on that, albeit visually. I mentioned the flourishing trade and linked to an article about the illicit element of it all. But the links with the insurgents is a really interesting point. As is the military element!
The adjective is Afghan - not Afghani, which is the currency
This is not a Shia sunni conflict. It's just strategic.
Better to avoid escalation, anyway
I don't know what their ideology is, but if they're fighting Russia's little buddy Iran and China's little buddy Pakistan, then the Balochis must be getting something right!
U sound very simple minded
@yourhandsomestep-dad2669 Maybe. But at least I don't sound like a bot.
@benjauron5873 I see your point but the only problem is they're supported by isreal
You're wrong Pakistan is America little buddy China no longer control them now they become America proxy .
Both Pakistan & Iran cannot afford each other's animosity. 2 out of Pakistan's 4 neighbours dislike Pakistan, it wouldn't want a third angry neighbour. Meanwhile Iran is often more busy with problems to its west so it needs to keep its eastern flank safe. And both countries have had brotherly relations anyway so instead of jeopardizing them because of insurgent groups, they should focus on mutual co-operation since they both have the same goal of curbing Baloch separatism.
Pakistan does what master USA will say dollar army say for reason
Islamic split of Shia and Sunni does play a role!
I always appreciate your neutral presentation of the facts
A tribal friendship between Islamic Republic of Iran and Islamic Republic of Pakistan.
When Pakistan was formed in 1948 they had a population of about 34 million - less than England (let alone the UK) now there are 230 million of them. That's without a welfare state or an NHS or free housing.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Iran our brother because we are one ummah 🇵🇰❤️🇮🇷
The perspective that I've heard from Iranians is that this is intended as a distraction to try to pump up nationalist feelings in Iran - though it seems like most Iranians hate their government, they are still very touchy about the idea of ethnic separation, believing that Iranian nationalism comes first.
I'm not so sure myself - it seems to be bizarre for Iran to risk an important alliance with Pakistan for this reason alone.
Then again, Pakistan has always been the wild card in geopolitics.
I believe it will effect global supply chain, inflation and job loss
Islamists everywhere are confused on which country to cheer on 😄
Amazing pronunciations of foreign words!
Thank you! :-) I actually try to listen to native pronunciations whenever I can.
I'm not familiar with the goings on in this situation, but it would appear that the two governments have scratched each other's back? They both had insurgent groups that were politically difficult to outwardly bomb as they are nationals of those countries, but conveniently they've decided to trade the dirty work without repercussions and suddenly all is well again. I suspect there was some prearrangement here.
How can they be friends if Iran is Shia and Pakistan is Sunni ?
We never fight with IRAN Iran is our great neighbor we are brothers we keep peace with Iran and others countries ❤
'Army of God' and 'Army of Justice' are nice way to woo support.
In one place after another, war and natural disasters.
Messy. It's hard to trust for the Pakistani government given their record of being a bad neighbour and Iran has motivation for distracting from its other issues. It's the Balochi that I feel sympathy for, they're in a position almost as u enviable as that of the Kurds.
Fact base
Funny thing is this conflict just erupted weeks after Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir Meets Victoria Nuland in his US trip ... any insight Professor ??
Thanks. The trouble is that Iran launched the attacks. So if the meeting had anything to do with it, it would have been that it seemed to irritate Tehran, rather than encourage Islamabad. :-)
@@JamesKerLindsay no at first west backed Pak army launched an airbourne attack on Iran on the death Anniversary of Qasem Soleimani from the disputed Baluchistan region to Kerman city which killed more than 150+ people ...then Iran retaliate
this happened just weeks after Pak Army chief Ashim Munner met Victoria Nuland and Tony Blinken
And everyone know how troublesome Victoria Nuland (Agent of destruction) is
You west people had no idea what happening here 😂😂
Nothing more than diversionary tactics. Remember, both countries have general elections this year
Iran Has election in 2025
MAX BROOKS STOP PREDICTING THE FUTURE!!!!
Both export terrorism and use it as tools against their adversaries. Both punishing each other.
Indeed. But it is interesting to see how it has blown up as an issue between two countries that otherwise had excellent relations.
@@JamesKerLindsay yes, may be Israel situation, especially the Houthi activities in the Sea, are also a reason, Pak has history of acting as tool for someone else, for concession. keeping Iran in check along with China (which broked peace between Iran and Saudi) for which both Pak and Iran are allies.
@@mr.n0ne Quite possibly. It would be interesting to understand exactly what has driven this latest confrontation.
no no never...pakistan don't want war with anyone . war is something only European enjoy 😅😂
Both Pakistan and Iran should withdraw peacefully from Balochistan. Let Baloch people live in their homeland.
Pakistan has it's own problems with their other neighbor and Iran has it's own problems with the west; therefore, these two nations shouldn't even have conflict between them.
Thats a big 33% other in ethnicities in pakistan lol! At least add balochi and kashmiri or the dardic ppl as these two have their provinces as well named balochistan and kashmir gilgit baltistan
In this nightmare by the name islam peace is a lost dream..
It would have been interesting to consider how Pakistan's previous experience of losing Bangladesh is shaping the way it deals with the separatists in Balochistan. Regardless, this video was very educational, previously I had little idea why these two countries would bomb each other.
It was lndia that gained independence n Pakistani born in 1947 (having a 76 year history only)
Not
Pakistan gained independence
Baluchi is a more mainstream
Pronunciation!
Uda biarkan saja begitu,memang sudah waktunya.
😢want america engage iran with pakistan . Because of yemen . Being pakistan . We are on fault .