As a local from Vilnius I can admit the whole city was in shock of what happened. I went to see the crash site today as the rubble is still there. Only the flight data recorders were taken from the scene. Authorities are taking drone footage of the crash site and doing 3D scanning. They also had to wait until the investigators will arrive from Spain, Germany and US (as it was Spanish crew, operating from Germany and the plane is US made). The whole area is fenced off, patrolled by the police and you can not see much as it’s pretty hilly, but I know the surroundings quite well. I’m not religious, but it looks like the god himself has solved this disastrous situation in the best way possible. The plane has passed a pretty densely populated area and hit the ground a few hundred meters further destroying mostly bushes and trees. Most of the impact was absorbed by the small hill. That’s how the pilot cabin got detached from the fuselage and flew further from the jet fuel inferno. The rubble of the plane was sliding for a few hundred meters, hitting a few houses and cars and setting them on fire. Fortunately no one on the ground was killed. Rescue services arrived in 6 minutes and found one person on scene. Apparently he made it out alive on his feet and with minor injuries and even communicated with rescuers letting them know it was a cargo flight with four crew members on board (it’s mind blowing to realise just minutes ago he was on that plane). One of the pilots was found dead on site, the other one was taken to hospital in critical condition but now is stable. Two other members of the staff got minor injuries. If the plane hit the ground only a few hundred meters further, the consequences could have been way more serious. It would have hit a pretty busy intersection with usually busy traffic and buildings around it, including two large supermarkets.
Thank you for your insight. Our thoughts are with you and we’re following the investigation and it’s findings closely. Best regards from your ally Finland. Together we are strong!
Interessant war die Berichterstattung auf den deutschen Fernsehkanälen - sofort wurde von einem möglichen Anschlag durch Russland geredet. So tief sitzt bei den Werte-Westlern die Russophobie in den Knochen. Beschämend! 🙈
As someone that works nights in law enforcement/public safety, please look after yourself and your colleagues. I know you already know, but just a friendly reminder from someone on the outside 😊
As a 737 Captain with over 12000 on type, this is the kind of accident that causes me great concern. I will be following closely to see what went wrong and hopefully prevent it from happening again. Thank you Juan for your analysis.
@@gianlucagomara7262 I remember there was a UPS one that had no survivors and was deemed CFIT... ages ago now. Fatigue was a contributor for that one though.
@@JamesTK Doesn't frankly matter. In aviation, there used to be a golden rule that you don't speculate about the cause of a crash and await the report. Jumping to conclusions without hard evidence is in the end dangerous. So was it CFIT? The accident report will tell...
@@JamesTK Swedish National Television pointed out, and I have also seen this footage myself, that the aircraft banks to the right shortly before impacting terrain in the surveillance footage closest to the point of impact. Chances are it wasn't controlled flight toward the end, though an FDR analysis should bring the clarity we need here.
I've seen the fireball from the crash from two different angles. It is a wonder that anyone survived. Great job, Juan. YT needs to get their head out of their arse and realize that truly educational content sometimes contains scenes that may not be for the faint of heart.
From one of the videos, it looked like the plane was at an extreme bank just before impact. So, the edge of the wing likely struck the ground first, causing the fireball while the fuselage still had some altitude and momentum. Still incredible though
@john… it isn’t about YT…it’s about the advertisers. YT is just a platform to deliver content. It’s the advertisers that pay the bills and drive decision making. YT has no appetite to tell their advertisers…we think educational content, even though potentially graphic, trumps your concerns about what your customers might think.
@@indylovelaceI think most of us understand that however I believe the suggestion is allow the educational content even though it might be graphic with advertisers who don’t mind it. How would they do this and who are the potential advertisers? I don’t want to speculate but the point is we want a middle ground so we’re not forced to hunt around for the information we desire.
There is no shortage of analysts of aviation mishaps on YT, but seriously, blancolirio must be the gold standard. He is timely, extremely familiar with both commercial and recreational aviation, and reliable in suggesting additional sources for follow up information. He is that rarest of experts, he knows what he knows, but also what he doesn't know. This is the kind of balance that is the cornerstone of quality journalism.
Rarely do I look elsewhere for aviation mishap info. Only look for the local stuff that Jaun doesn't cover, not having Juan do his thing is always a bit of disappointment. He's the best.
I’d like to see one of the tv networks take his feed for updates on future air related incidents as the quality of tv reporting on these accidents is often very poor.
Absolutely agree. All you said plus being a pilot and an AMP tech gives him unique overall picture that he shares really well. Really the best source for info about aviation incidents.
@@auntykriesti totally concur. Juan is definitely a reference with his vast experience, knowledge of aviation safety, and special attention to human factors. He could be a NTSB investigation manager any day.
As an instructor on the 777 and having instructed on the 737; I’m witnessing more pilots that get “balled up” or behind on the approach (glideslop) immediately revert to utilizing Vertical Speed. Now I’m NOT a big fan of Vertical Speed and only teach it for rare situations. The last few data points seem indicate an excessive rate with the autopilot engaged. Compound this with the other pilot distracted with the tower frequency and we have the potential for Swiss cheese alignment. Having flown international, we tried to always preset the next frequency. Vilnius controllers were particularly challenging to understand on the oh dark thirty flights. I’m astonished that most everyone survived.
Yes - rushing and putting yourself in tight is always risky - I know at Cargojet in Canada I have seen pilots arm the ILS - and rely on the glideslope to capture - they “spin” the vertical speed down - Very dangerous - Not saying that this is what happened - it’s just something I have seen first hand
@@jlh9910 Excellent question n observation! Unfortunately I’m witnessing pilots that are so consumed with utilizing automation correction that NO ONE is looking outside much less fly the airplane. This is partially a carryover from flying the Bus. Then we add in fatigue, get home or hotel I tiss, night time light blending and there is your recipe for disaster. To preface your question, we do not know at what point did the crew actually have the visibility to see the approach lights or PAPI versus 3rd party or outsource video. Most VASI’s on the planet have been replaced with PAPI’s.
In my local newspaper in Germany, not too far from Leipzig they reported, that the captain is the one who died unfortunately. And the other 3 crew members survived, 1 with only minor injuries and 2 with serious injuries. I have seen footage of the crash and am still baffled how 3/4 of the crew survived this. Thanks to the first responders too, who helped the survivors escape the wreckage.
the point is that when the plane fell, the cockpit was not engulfed in fire, and the crew member in the best condition, who was in the cabin of the plane - a Lithuanian - got out of the wreckage himself and helped the rescuers and medics by indicating the number of crew members and where exactly they were. Thank God the rescuers, firefighters and medics arrived incredibly quickly and worked professionally, we hope the seriously injured crew members in the cockpit will recover.
Yes, in the first reports the First Officer was reported to be the pilot who died but it is now confirmed that it was in fact the 62 years old Captain. It´s probably he who we can here at this radio transmissions because it was also reported that the FO was the Pilot Flying.
I'm a freight dog. With greatest respect to your experience and background, flying freight is not the dire (almost dangerous) situation that is painted here. While fatigue may turn out to be a factor, it's not necessarily the cause of the accident. Proper rest and fatigue management is especially important as we often fly on the back side of the clock and must manage the effects on the circadian rhythm. As professional and experienced airmen we use excellent CRM, strict adherence to SOP, and apply our airmanship and experience to move the metal and deliver the "rubber dogsh*t" day after day and night after night, successfully and safely. This accident is awful; our thoughts and prayers go out to the families, friends and colleagues of those that lost their lives.
I know a few cargo pilots and more than a few truckers. People love their packages on time or ideally, early. Y'all literally keep the entire world going so to me, there's probably not a more dire or potentially dangerous job I can think of right off the top of the head.
Fully agree! I too am a freightdog and have experienced people who think we're lesser pilots or less professional. In general (there are always exceptions) we're just as professional and proficient as passenger flying pilots, flying nearly identical aircraft. I don't think Juan is trying to paint freight pilots as being less safe, I hope no viewer draws that inaccurate conclusion.
JUAN, I could listen to you educate us layman in all things aviation all day long. What a gift you have been given. Thank you for being so articulate and professional.
I work in ATC myself and have also worked on occurence investigations. Very good summary and nice visualization. With 4 miles from touchdown at their speed equals 1,5 - 2 minutes to go, they were still too fast, not configured for landing, still intercepting the LOC, read back the wrong tower freq so not established communication with tower... so many things at once, that leaves space for errors, especially with fatigue being an additional factor during that time of day and in aviation in general, especially for cargo pilots. Lets wait for the investigations, scary incident.
Incidents and accidents are happening all over the world, but I never in my life thought of seeing my home airport in this channel. Condolences to the victims. Thank you for your quality content!
As a 21-year short-haul pilot and ex-B737/A320 Line Trainer, it never ceases to amaze me how after all the line training and line checks, you still find crews who just smash on into the approach and are seemingly oblivious to any stable approach criteria. Intercepting the G/S at 190+ knots is just a recipe for disaster. Excellent analysis as always Juan.
I noticed in some of very first videos that came out on TH-cam of this crash, right when the aircraft broke out of the cloud base, they had a very high angle of attack (deck angle), made obvious by looking at the angles of the nose gear taxi light and the flap track fairing mounted lights beneath each wing… There’s also another video taken from what looks to be a ski lift tower that shows a little bit more detail… You can see the much higher than usual angle of attack for about the first 6-8 seconds after breaking out of the clouds, then decreases to something that looks more of a normal angle of attack in the landing configuration for about 4-5 seconds, then the wing drops and impact… Also, to my eyes, it looked like this approach was being flown very fast, it seemed like they were moving 30+ knots faster than normal… Just my observations, I have 25+ years and 20,000+ hours in many models of 737s…
วันที่ผ่านมา +14
I thought the same here. Miscommunication, too much speed, trying to be fast. Aviate, Navigate, Communicate.
I listened to a longer version between the tower and postman. There was a lot of discussion if they were approved for ILS landing. A lot of confusion there.
Back in the 90s we flew a lot of late night, back of the clock flights. My airline flew 737-200s and 300s (much like the 400 but a bit shorter). After a long day, even the best FOs had a propensity to end up high, fast and behind the airplane on many of these late arrivals. It got to the point that I purposely worked the leg rotation so that I flew the last, late leg. Getting slowed down and on profile is essential at the end of a long, tiring day. It only takes one unexpected "candy bar-in-the-swimming pool" -- the wrong tower frequency in this case -- when you are pushing the limits to push things into the danger zone.
Thanks Bob. As a former commuter pilot in the 1970’s, it was much more challenging flying at night- and we always were scheduled to land before 11 pm- flying from midnight to 6 am is rough on the body and mind- and it was well known by everyone in our industry that “ over night and over water “ was the highest risk in flying.
Top quality review of data! .... as usual. Thanks Juan!!!!!! Note: I've spent thousands of hours flying Navy Flight Simulators as a software engineer and tech. Wish I had Juan to teach me all the ATC interaction. Love the channel.
Very impressive Juan, you very quickly analize the flight data that is available, understand it and explain what is most likely to have happened. Your knowledge and understanding is impressive. Thank you for sharing it with us.
From the initial QNH error to the overspeed it is clear that the crew were not on top of the approach. Being in a rush is not safe and if tired you need to take your time and double/treble check everything. The voice recorder will hopefully help.
Excellent summation and explanation as always Juan. It will be very interesting to see what the black boxes reveal but I'm willing to bet you're not far off the mark. Thank heavens most people survived! Condolences to the family of the fatally injured pilot though.
Screw TH-cam and their stupid rules- I can watch women shave their pubic areas as "educational" but a distant fireball of a crash demonetizes a true educational channel! You do a great job as always Juan. I just wish that EVERY controller treated EVERY transmission like their loved ones life depended on it. Speak a tiny bit slower, and clearer, and perhaps you may save a life one day. If not- it cost you nothing.
Given godlike powers making it so the internet is properly free is one of the things on my tudo list. And they very much speak too fast. Do they not consider that what theyre saying is by default less clear because of the way the radios work?
@@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714What an absolutely stupid thing to say. The internet IS totally free. You can post whatever you like on websites you own and control. You are not entitled to upload whatever you like to other people's websites, just like you're not allowed to post signs on your neighbours lawn, for example. You're right - this is about freedom - the freedom to control whatever property you own. TH-cam hosts an insane amount of data free of charge. Sure, they'd like you to either pay for a subscription or watch ads, but we all know how trivially easy it is to bypass both those things. Now I'm no fan of Google, but TH-cams system is about as fair as they can make it without having to charge everyone huge fees.
Great material. Just to clarify, it was not DHL flight, it was SWIFTAIR, a contractor for DHL. AIrcraft was half painted in DHL colours, as it is part of the contract. I work as a maintenance engineer in another cargo hub in Germany, and we maitain the cargo aircrafts, contractors for DHL, UPS, FeDex, etc. As a former freight dog pilot, only I can say that they were far behind the aircraft, but the twr freq was not the only distractiion, I think that lack of answear about MIZOP point has created a lot of confusion in the flight deck. APP Controler played a important role in this accident. It was prime example to GO AROUND.
Thanks Juan, look in which bed they ended up. 🙏 Some mental gates that should remind every “airman” to mentally get ready for a possible go around: Inside the FAP, OM check hight, 1000’ or 500’ AGL/stabilized criteria plus VERY important: if one has a feeling that “something is not right”. 15NM out on a looong final I once convinced my Pilot Monitoring with a few words to give me time to get the damn ILS needles in place until the FAP. The approach details & CRM feelings were later discussed at the bar in the hotel as there were many facets involved. My learning of the event: 1) have the other pilot speak up EARLY. 2) On a 2 crew flight deck t is of utmost importance to adopt the speed to the slower mind of poth pilots. Even if that possibly sucks a bit🙈. Thanks for your initial analysis again.
i have read that one of them actualy walked out of the cockpit. Im not sure if first responders found him outside or did they came inside and he walked out with them
Another expert talk on what we're seeing about the movements all the way up to the scene of the crash. Thanks for the primer on capturing the ILS intercept.
Unfortunately it's usually the pilots who violate standard radio terminology. It's a huge problem with military pilots so it filters down into commercial aviation due to hiring military trained pilots and non-military pilots who want to sound as cool as those guys. 🫤
@@danoberste8146 True sadly, but it’s no reason for ATC to fall into that bad habit, nor speak too fast especially at 4 am when the traffic is not exactly busy… ATC should be making pride of having an impeccable phraseology and pronunciation at all times, and not hesitate to call back on pilots who speak poorly. Pilots must owe respect to ATC just as the other way around. That’s just being professional. And it’s essential for flight safety, although it’s largely disregarded.
@@joso5554 Watching these videos with ATC extracts, I often don't understand at all what their jabber is about. Too fast, accents... If I was younger and thinking about becoming pilot, I would chose a different job just for that reason!
Maybe ATC should have alternate option to establish communication by texting to the pilots the message of correct radio frequency emphasizing correct reading of numbers including commas etc clearly relying to the pilots especially when English is their second language ESL that can lead to miscommunication of decimal points of numbers that are relevant information for understanding in this case frequency of the radio.
@@jetsetter8541 I've been thinking this ^ for a long time. So much radio traffic is exactly what I, as a GA pilot, was expecting ATC to say, and most of mine are scripted phrases I anticipated making while I was briefing myself hours ago. With today's technology, ipads, apps, test to speech/speech to text, phones, wifi, bluetooth, etc., it seems that even low hour pilots on a budget could be well-served by a little less radio traffic and a LOT more good information delivered otherwise. Leave the radio for urgent, unexpected traffic. We're all less likely to filter out and ignore radio calls if we knew they ALL were of dire importance.
11:18 Shortly after the accident, Poland sent a plane to tests if localizer and glideslope, and all other airport systems are working correctly. According to Lithuanian press, they didn’t find anything unusual. Also i live just below 3 mile final on MIZOP approach, and the planes were landing all day using that approach, so i don’t think that airport systems have anything to do with it. Very informative video btw, thank you.
I flew as a night freight dog for 10 years on the 727 and DC-8 all over the world. We had a couple outlaw captains who did everything their way but in large we knew the odds were stacked against us, so we tried to fly the slowest most stabilized approach passible. Later I retired as a 777 pilot for a major U.S. airline. The company's AQP program always showed the 737 pilots were hot dogs and the other aircraft types were extremely professional. Scores for the 777 were always above 99 with the 757/767 very close behind. 737 pilots were normally in the low 80s. Luckly in my career I never flew light twins (737 or DC-9) for a living.
Saw a ‘hot dog’ flying a 737-200 from CYYC TO CYCG. Normally that approach comes from the North to RWY 16. Not this guy! He threaded down the valley 90 deg to the right of RWY 16 which is like a stones throw away! He banked that sucker like a fighter jet then snapped wings level at the same time he punched the numbers! That was in the late 70’s and I STILL get goosebumps thinking about it! AWESOME!💕🇨🇦
The 737 is not easy to slow down, in fact it’s hard compared to the DC9, the Fk00, and the A320. I didn’t mention the DC3. If energy management is handled correctly then there is time to anticipate and stay ahead of the aircraft. If not you can get so behind the aircraft it’s not true. Your post is very informative.
I heard a pilot comment that often the 737 culture is driven more by low cost fast turnaround. The legs are shorter and so those approaches are a bigger portion of the flights. On the other hand the long haul flights don't spend as much relative time in approach, and after a really long flight they're more apt to just play it by the book. I have no idea how true it is, but it seems to roughly align with these comments.
@RichFreeman I fly lowcost 737 and I fly 180kts at 10 NM from the runway. There are people who like to fly fast but if you bust the stable approach below 500ft and land you get fired. The flight is monitored by FDM and the aircraft sends the data to the company after landing. There was room in the 90s but in Europe or US you can't get away with it
Thank you for the video and the explanations - the very best I’ve seen so far. I’d like to add one specific thought for the non-aviatiors what’s going on in a two-pilot-cockpit: the PM (Pilot monitoring) has - amongst other things - the duty to talk to the ATC and monitor the actions of the PF (Pilot flying), to execute certain commands by the PF and so on. But the PM is NOT flying the aircraft => in general (if not hand-flying), the PF is setting the QNH (not the PM), the Altitude, the Heading, the A/P modes etc. So, if the PM gives a false readback, this doesn’t mean that the false value has been set on the flightdeck by the PF, because the PF listening the radio too and is setting the value directly according the ATC instruction. (Additionally the PM can give a wrong readback, but did understand and memorize the correct value.) Of course it would be the duty of the PM, the PF and / or the ATC the clarify any wrong readbacks or misunderstandings. To make a long story short: what’s on the radio doesn’t have to reflect what’s executed on the flightdeck.
One thing that got my attention from the videos showing the crash is that 1 or 2 seconds prior to the crash the aircraft has a significant and sudden bank to the left. The aircraft impacts the ground is with the left wing. I was susprised this was not mentioned on this video that in any case is an excellent video reporting the available information at this moment but take a look at the last seconds prior to the crash and see the sudden and significant bank to the left before impact.
@@FlyTaylor Go look at the data at 4:30. They were both descending and slowing down very quickly. From 196 kts at 2075 ft down to 146 kts at 875 ft (225 ft AGL). Only the very last data point seems to show a speed-up of 5 kts. Not sure what's going on there, but the recorded altitude of 600 ft is already underground, so I'd consider it an unreliable data point.
Thx Juan for another brilliant analysis. That whole approach was unstabilozed and that sudden nose down at the end was weird to say the least. Time and investigation will tell. RIP the pilot.
As a retired professional pilot, your summation of this approach is making sense . There is video I have seen that shows the aircraft making a sudden nose over which takes it quickly off the glide slope in a nose low attitude, from my viewing of it, and it crashes seconds later.
Agree and another video shows a right hand bank and a tail-drop few seconds before impact. At least 10 seconds before impact they had visual on the runway's ALS (OVC 005).
It looked liked to me the aircraft nose pitched up before the crash like they noticed it last minute. I also thought maybe they were initiating a go-around at the same time and the engines obviously didn’t have time to spool up.
@@fotisdim2546 Why should she spell out the 'dot'? That makes no sense, as the first three digits are always followed by the digits behind the decimal point. Also one has to consider that she is used to spell this frequency a hundred times per week correctly. She said it correctly but a little bit muffled.
Nice channel @blancolirio, accurate and fair analysis. I am sure there will be multiple learning points from the final report. Sadly it seems like the sort of points that have been covered many times in the past.
That anyone survived that crash is miraculous. Were the 3 survivors not in the cockpit at impact? Edit: Thanks @Glegh for the explanation that the cockpit broke off at impact, kept on going, and left the rest of the plane with the fuel behind.
@@fgbae8220it's kinda like American international airways 808 they also had the cockpit brake off and slide away from the fire although in that case all crew lived.
Lastly, the use of level change below 1000 feet to capture the glideslope is prohibited, but many crews still utilize that method. The 737 normal procedure requires disengaging the autothrottle at 500 feet or before landing. Review Turkish Airlines Boeing 737 crash in Amsterdam, failed radar altimeter.
Apparently 5G is messing with radar altimeters and also weather radars (ground radars for rain and humidity)... Frequencies could be too similar. (I'm not a specialist, but I've heard pilots complaining about this, and have to agree that in my local area weather forecasts are much less accurate than they used to be, when it comes to rain...)
CFII here. this crash reminds me of the Eastern Airlines crash in the Everglades 1970s...PF got distracted with what PM/FE were doing about a lightbulb and descended very controllably into the ground. Perhaps the PF in this crash was overwhelmed by the lack of stability, high airspeed, and LOC overshoot that the distraction from the PM messing with the radios was enough to make his attention lapse & auger it in. Just my 2 cents.
Thanks Juan - you answered a question I had. The jet was on the glideslope and localizer. Which makes it a real mystery. The demonitization criteria is totally out of control.
Lack of comms on the final approach suggests they were very busy and/or surprised. I feel like they had something misconfigured and discovered that very late maybe just as they came out from the soup. Also if you’re coming in fast that means their timing and cadence will be slightly off. You have less time to react and a bunch of stuff you’d be doing intuitively on different beats now has to happen on a different cadence.
What a terrible thing to have happen. We appreciate your analysis of the situation and are interested in hearing the preliminary report. Prayers for the survivors and Godspeed to the deceased. Fair winds and following skies.
Hi Juan, spanish native speaker here. He does read back 2700ft, and in fact it sounds pretty clear to me exactly as Víctor from VASAviation writes down.
I live in Vilnius. From the descent route, Vilnius airport is on the hill. The point where aircraft crashed is exactly where the top of the hill starts. It looks like aircraft was flying on lower altitude, not taking into account that there is a steep elevation just before the airport landing, around 2 km from landing runway
I know it’s been said elsewhere but I have to say it again…these guys *impacted terrain* at over 140kt and most of them survived (at least initially…we’ll see, I guess). That is absolutely incredible, man…
As a Lithuanian I can say that she told 118205, she missed to tell decimal. Yep this is our accent... The frequencies must been programed by this time at approach.. Speedy approach, unstable.. basically go around, it's not a huge airport that you have to wait long in que for second landing.. Simply pilots behind a plane, weather and visibility after cloud brake was good.. How many of these crashes I saw in various documentaries when pilots rushed.. First crash in our country independence time and kinda lucky by damages and casualties...
Juan, your evaluations are beyond impressive. I'm amazed by your graphic abilities to overlay information which really helps us understand the situation. Your knowledge is outstanding. Thank you!
I wonder if they deployed the spoilers to slow down and then forgot to retract them and stalled the plane while pitching up trying to maintain altitude
My thoughts also - pulling up hard with spoilers deployed affects airflow over the wing like excessive angle of attack - did it initiate a stall causing wing to drop? Will 737-400 allow full spoilers & flaps deployed simultaneously? I want to see the flight recorder data. Almost unbelievable 3 survived. Great job, Juan. Condolences to pilots family.
Although the speed was fast, the approach became stabilized on the localizer and also (seems to be) the glide slope until they came out of the clouds at ~800. I think you are right that spoilers/flaps were not set right and there was a sudden attempt to correct at low airspeed. The video appears to show one wing going high which could indicate a stall. Curious accident.
Thanks for the review. I've seen the lateral view of the glide path flown into the fireball. There's a sharp increase in the sink rate at the end that leads into the crash event. My first thought was the Auropilot disconnected coupled with nose down trim input as in a runaway trim.
Incredible that anyone survived that. Horrible to watch that sudden roll to the right. My only experience with aviation is a bit of gliding IRL and flight sims flying for a virtual airline so do understand most of the procedures involved. One thing I learned today is why you have to capture the localizer first, never considered the possible reason but now Juan has explained it, it's obvious. Nice work as always Juan.
I’m a 56 yo instrument student pilot and this accident really drives home the need to pay attention to the details. So, this is a lesson on how important it is to stay ahead of the airplane and recognize when you are not and take action. Thanks for this breakdown and really gets into the details that so many ignore. Keep up the great work!
I think protocols at tower could also be improved. After all as I understand, tower takes ownership when it comes to landing these birds from their perspective. The lost communication between pilot and tower in terms of radio setup is a fail. It just creates inneficiencies. Bank call centers even more precise on procedures.
Hello Juan, according to Boeing statistics, 87% of the 737 operators have configured that their airplane's glideslope will not be captured until localized. The first step is a stabilized approach. If not, VMC conditions at 1000 feet go around. Other ways to get down to the glideslope would be setting an altitude of 1000 feet MCP and increasing the VS with the autopilot engaged at 1000 ft./min. Lastly, younger pilots are very dependent on automation, so turning off the autopilot manually and flying the airplane down to the glide slope while maintaining localizer would be an option, but probably not the first thing they would think of.
Thank you very much for this explanation. Reports say that the Captain was 62 years old and the Pilot Monitoring, the age of the Pilot Flying is not reported so far. The Captain was the Pilot who passed away.
My own take is that if you've missed the glideslope just admit it to ATC and get vectored for another go. This approach was already messed up when they turned base leg. Salvaging an approach at stupid o'clock is difficult. If you can't salvage it, the go around could be mayhem
Two thoughts: First, I have jump seated a lot on cargo flights. I have enormous respect for those crews because it is hard to see the runway in low ceilings and easy to get behind the airplane. Second, I don’t think it unreasonable to conclude they were behind the airplane. The videos I have seen don’t obviously show anything wrong until it is clear that they are going to be short. The fact that one of the pilots and the jumpseaters survived is a miracle. It is the one piece of good news in what otherwise was a terrible accident.
What would have caused you to be in a jumpseat? Are you an airline pilot or co-pilot who would transit to or from home before or after a "duty session"?
Thank you very much for this close and very informative debrief about what we know so far.🙂👍 It looks like as if an unstable approach was the start of this event. But indeed: Something must then have happened at the very last moments of the flight what turned it into a disaster. It was reported that CVR and FDR were meanwhile recovered. So hopefully they can be read out - and probably the CVR will show then what happened during this crucial last moments. Btw.: It was probably the first flight of the crew at this day. DHL isn´t delivering packages on Sunday in Europe, the DHL main hub in Leipzig is closed on Sunday. This specific aircraft came in from Cologne on Saturday, November, 23rd at 0:14 am and was parked at Leipzig during the weekend. Its next flight was the accident flight. But the Pilots had obviously to show up at the airport very early on monday morning - the aircraft departed Leipzig at 3:07 am on Monday morning = in the middle of the circadian low. Maybe this contributed to the crash, too.
Becose impact direction was going downhill. If in front of descending plane was hill going up , then there were diferent story.After the crash , there was no fast stop , disintegraded parts were roling for 200 meters. Suden stop during impact makes 100 and 1000 G's, what eventualy killls humans.
Behind is correct. Should alresdy have frequecy programmed in, only requiring a turn of a knod to switch radios or a press on a botton to flop the frequencies. Also, should have saw a difference in the programmed one and what they thought the controller said. In training I was taught if you change frequencies and nobody there.... GO BACK TO THE ONE YOU JUST CAME FROM.
Juan, as always exemplary reporting on your channel. Always on point and very easy to understand. I have a question to you and other aviators, with all the technology that is available today why isn’t there cameras inside the cockpit that monitors the pilots and connected to the flight tower so they can see while communicating with them? Be safe my friend.
When an aviation accident is reported on the news media I immediately attempt to think of possible scenarios that may have been the result but like with the majority of folks following you I look forward to your coverage of the incident as was my experience with this one. I enjoy your explanation of certain things for the benefit of the non aviation savy viewers and think you do an exceptional job with it. I have great trust and respect in you and appreciate your love and passion in aviation. Thank you for this informative presentation. Wishing you and your family a Happy Thanksgiving.
Hey Juan, your webcam is being janky because it's not getting enough light onto the sensor. The required exposure time at the available light level is greater than than the duration of 1 frame of video (probably 1/30th of second). There's only two ways to fix it, increase the illumination or get a different camera with a larger aperture. A quick way to test this would be to aim a powerful work light at the ceiling and make a test recording. You probably need 2 to 4 times greater illumination than you currently have.
The ADS-B data shows ground speed. So, with an 18-knot headwind on the glideslope, the airspeed is 19 MPH faster than that which was recorded. This approach was flown much faster than you frame it in this video, Juan.
Too fast right up to the point when they wanted landing clearance from Tower. Then those efforts to slow the plane caught up while they weren't paying attention to airspeed and altitude.
I mean, they're doing 190 KIAS on a ~2 nm final and 170 kts some mile from touchdown. That has to be 30-40 kts faster than your usual 734 Vref. They'd have to fly that final approach on idle!
@@matibucholski ADS-B data shows a ground speed of 159 knots at an altitude of 1050 feet (400 feet above ground level) about 2 miles from the end of Runway 19. Add 18 knots of headwind and the airspeed is about 177 kts (204 MPH) at that point in the approach.
Thanks, Juan! Another very fine explanation of what might have gone wrong.... If I remember correctly, Marko Ramius, the skipper of "Red October," is from Vilnius. Just my recollection. Have fun poking holes in the sky!
The second camera perspective from the previous video shows the plane rolling to what looks like close to a 90° bank angle just before impact. It'll be interesting to learn if the flight data recorder shows any indication of a sudden technical issue with the airplane.
Dear Juan, I am a Patreon supporter, besides being subscribed here. I thank you for everything you do! • Since you have pinned your correction at the top, I don’t have to hit this hard. The reason I’m writing has to do with your pronunciation of VILNIUS. • As you have illustrated above, the pronunciation is NOT Vil-in-knee-us, but indeed, VIL-KNEE-US, just 3️⃣ syllables. And your correction above shows you already aware of this. • All that’s left to say is HAPPY THANKSGIVING, to you & your whole family. Thank you so much for all your great efforts for us. • ------ ✌🏽😉👋🏽.
Yesterday when I first watched the VAS aviation video I heard the approach controller said "118 DOT 05" for the tower freq. Only after I read that the tower is 118.205, and after two replays of that particular section of the video, did I realize that she was saying "118205".
I have listen to this sequence many, many times (at 02:16 / VASaviation video). I hear 1-1-8-0-5. For me there is no indication that the ATC controller said "decimal" or "two", I'm sure she simply missed that digit "2". This explains for me that the pilot replys - with no doubt in his voice - 1-1-8-0-5. And by the way, English is not the native language of either the pilots nor ATC, and their native language is not the same but rather different.
@@NicolaW72 The controller missed two incorrect readbacks - the QNH and the frequency. I'm guessing she's not sleeping well after this accident. To be fair to her, the guys should have had the correct frequency already up on standby.
Sir, good job on this video! (Lithuanian native speaker here) But there is one "but": let me agree to disagree, but she did not drop '2' she did say '118.205', not '118.05'; (then pilot says '118.05' and she said nothing). Lastly, you are right she did not say '118 decimal 205'.
It looks like these guys were pretty balled up at the end. Rule of thumb for the 737. At 10 miles and still 250 knots, on glide, it’s almost impossible to stabilize for a safe landing. These guys were near or above that framework near the end, wrong freq set on the radio. All indicators they were not stabilized. Difficulty with comms and accents. All night flight and it’s dark with weather. Just a general recipe for more mistakes in the background, and ultimately a tragedy. Sad for those involved!
They may have gone VS mode to capture the GS from above, got distracted by the loss of comms with the tower, and remained at the VS initially set to capture the GS from above. I teach crews that attempt to capture the GS from above is always fraught with danger, and very special attention must be paid to the situational awareness, or go around. The distraction of the loss of comms may well have been all that was required to distract the crew. Things happen very fast in the last 5 miles, especially when the approach is unstable.
Excellent overview again. As tragic as these events are, I always look out for your videos. Thanks for the hard work you put in the information you provide for an avgeek like myself.
Hi Juan, excellent work as always. Fatigue is an issue and you can hear it from the voices, not only the crew but the controller as well. She didn’t correct any mistake (QNH and frequency), but this is not the cause of the accident, just another hole in the Swiss cheese. I see that it’s really hard to stay disciplined and stick to the SOPs but it’s worth to do so. It potentially saves your life…
On 24th September 2022, Swiftair crashed off the end at Montpellier in another 737. Aircraft was a write off. They started the approach fast and never got the speed back. Juan did great coverage of that accident. Watch it! The final report is not out but all does not seem to be well at Swiftair.
Not discussing if the freq by ATC was told in the correct manner but: I don't know how people aren't hearing 118205, i know my ears are younger than most of the commenters (in my 20's), I'm guessing since this an EU flight ofcourse nobody's first language is English, from what I'm hearing, PRETTY WELL I MIGHT ADD, ATC just said the "2" in a more baltic way dropping that specific English "uiu" sound in TWO and making it Baltic/European so it sounds more like One One Eight Tu Zero Five. And i think thats why people aren't picking it up saying its the wrong freq. It isn't
The pens deal was JB brain flying his finest acrobatics. “Out in the rocks”?! From there on out his mile a minute brain wipes out 99% of comment section on VAS’s video and most other speculation. Oddly his mouth keeps up, my brain is smoked and he’s now off riding a motorcycle on a two inch wide trail in the mountains. Love it.
Juan you have done an exceptional job of describing the steps that took place in this accident. The overlay of the data with the approach chart really brings into focus how far behind the airplane these guys got. Kudos to you for not drawing conclusion until the final investigation is complete on this one. Even as behind as they were, no clear explanation as to what happened after the broke out. It will be very interesing to see what they discover in the investigation for sure. Great work!
Great job on analyzing the data. Would certainly be interesting to see what the CVR might have captured during the approach. Thanks Juan. Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family.
A sudden loss of altitude late on approach is reminiscent of the Polderbaan incident where a radio altimeter failure caused the autothrottle to go to idle. Hopefully this is not a repeat of that scenario - the investigation will no doubt ask those very questions.
Great precepts and theories. The explanation of the glideslope/localizer , very clear. Await the 'official' report to see how well your conjecture was. Godspeed the pilot. Best.
Corrections: Vilnius and Tuesday
"Ville- knee- Us :)" "VIL- NOOSE" "VILL-nee-us"...make up your minds...
@@blancolirio The latter is correct.👍
Whew. Scared me. Thought I'd lost a day and I don't have a lot remaining at my age LOL!
@@PatrickSBellSr It's actually pronounced "Throatwobbler Mangrove". (Let's see who gets that one!)
I'm in Australia, so Wednesday was correct but 26th was wrong. 😂
As a local from Vilnius I can admit the whole city was in shock of what happened.
I went to see the crash site today as the rubble is still there. Only the flight data recorders were taken from the scene. Authorities are taking drone footage of the crash site and doing 3D scanning. They also had to wait until the investigators will arrive from Spain, Germany and US (as it was Spanish crew, operating from Germany and the plane is US made).
The whole area is fenced off, patrolled by the police and you can not see much as it’s pretty hilly, but I know the surroundings quite well.
I’m not religious, but it looks like the god himself has solved this disastrous situation in the best way possible. The plane has passed a pretty densely populated area and hit the ground a few hundred meters further destroying mostly bushes and trees. Most of the impact was absorbed by the small hill. That’s how the pilot cabin got detached from the fuselage and flew further from the jet fuel inferno. The rubble of the plane was sliding for a few hundred meters, hitting a few houses and cars and setting them on fire. Fortunately no one on the ground was killed. Rescue services arrived in 6 minutes and found one person on scene. Apparently he made it out alive on his feet and with minor injuries and even communicated with rescuers letting them know it was a cargo flight with four crew members on board (it’s mind blowing to realise just minutes ago he was on that plane). One of the pilots was found dead on site, the other one was taken to hospital in critical condition but now is stable. Two other members of the staff got minor injuries. If the plane hit the ground only a few hundred meters further, the consequences could have been way more serious. It would have hit a pretty busy intersection with usually busy traffic and buildings around it, including two large supermarkets.
Yes I grew up at an Airport with a lot of crashes... It's unbelievable how many near misses... Including a building I was in.
Thank you for your insight. Our thoughts are with you and we’re following the investigation and it’s findings closely. Best regards from your ally Finland. Together we are strong!
Wow, your English is impeccable! My Grandmother was Lithuanian, from Vilnius. City and Country has been through a lot in the last 110 years.
So well said!
Interessant war die Berichterstattung auf den deutschen Fernsehkanälen - sofort wurde von einem möglichen Anschlag durch Russland geredet. So tief sitzt bei den Werte-Westlern die Russophobie in den Knochen. Beschämend! 🙈
Very well put together…we wait….I am a DHL night freight pilot and your comments at the end are a very accurate description of the job itself.
Greetings from Germany. And fly safe.
A lot of respect for your work, I just received an overnight European DHL package. Thank you
I am i am I am.
My thoughts exactly. I am an aviator - not professional. This will end up a series of small errors building to the critical point.
As someone that works nights in law enforcement/public safety, please look after yourself and your colleagues. I know you already know, but just a friendly reminder from someone on the outside 😊
As a 737 Captain with over 12000 on type, this is the kind of accident that causes me great concern. I will be following closely to see what went wrong and hopefully prevent it from happening again. Thank you Juan for your analysis.
And we have a surviving pilot... Not something you see every day with this kind of controlled flight into terrain
@@JamesTK we still don't know if it's CFIT but it looks like.
@@gianlucagomara7262 I remember there was a UPS one that had no survivors and was deemed CFIT... ages ago now. Fatigue was a contributor for that one though.
@@JamesTK Doesn't frankly matter. In aviation, there used to be a golden rule that you don't speculate about the cause of a crash and await the report. Jumping to conclusions without hard evidence is in the end dangerous. So was it CFIT? The accident report will tell...
@@JamesTK Swedish National Television pointed out, and I have also seen this footage myself, that the aircraft banks to the right shortly before impacting terrain in the surveillance footage closest to the point of impact. Chances are it wasn't controlled flight toward the end, though an FDR analysis should bring the clarity we need here.
I've seen the fireball from the crash from two different angles. It is a wonder that anyone survived.
Great job, Juan. YT needs to get their head out of their arse and realize that truly educational content sometimes contains scenes that may not be for the faint of heart.
From one of the videos, it looked like the plane was at an extreme bank just before impact. So, the edge of the wing likely struck the ground first, causing the fireball while the fuselage still had some altitude and momentum. Still incredible though
@john… it isn’t about YT…it’s about the advertisers. YT is just a platform to deliver content. It’s the advertisers that pay the bills and drive decision making. YT has no appetite to tell their advertisers…we think educational content, even though potentially graphic, trumps your concerns about what your customers might think.
@@indylovelacebullshit
@@indylovelaceI think most of us understand that however I believe the suggestion is allow the educational content even though it might be graphic with advertisers who don’t mind it. How would they do this and who are the potential advertisers? I don’t want to speculate but the point is we want a middle ground so we’re not forced to hunt around for the information we desire.
YT dont give a F about edu. $$$
There is no shortage of analysts of aviation mishaps on YT, but seriously, blancolirio must be the gold standard.
He is timely, extremely familiar with both commercial and recreational aviation, and reliable in suggesting additional sources for follow up information. He is that rarest of experts, he knows what he knows, but also what he doesn't know.
This is the kind of balance that is the cornerstone of quality journalism.
Plus he keeps emotions, irrelevant comments out of it. Superb
Rarely do I look elsewhere for aviation mishap info. Only look for the local stuff that Jaun doesn't cover, not having Juan do his thing is always a bit of disappointment. He's the best.
I’d like to see one of the tv networks take his feed for updates on future air related incidents as the quality of tv reporting on these accidents is often very poor.
Absolutely agree. All you said plus being a pilot and an AMP tech gives him unique overall picture that he shares really well. Really the best source for info about aviation incidents.
@@auntykriesti totally concur. Juan is definitely a reference with his vast experience, knowledge of aviation safety, and special attention to human factors. He could be a NTSB investigation manager any day.
As an instructor on the 777 and having instructed on the 737; I’m witnessing more pilots that get “balled up” or behind on the approach (glideslop) immediately revert to utilizing Vertical Speed. Now I’m NOT a big fan of Vertical Speed and only teach it for rare situations. The last few data points seem indicate an excessive rate with the autopilot engaged. Compound this with the other pilot distracted with the tower frequency and we have the potential for Swiss cheese alignment. Having flown international, we tried to always preset the next frequency. Vilnius controllers were particularly challenging to understand on the oh dark thirty flights. I’m astonished that most everyone survived.
Yes - rushing and putting yourself in tight is always risky -
I know at Cargojet in Canada I have seen pilots arm the ILS - and rely on the glideslope to capture - they “spin” the vertical speed down -
Very dangerous -
Not saying that this is what happened - it’s just something I have seen first hand
Oh wow and I was ashamed of doing that in a PC simulator
Thank you very much for sharing your experience, that are indeed very good and plausible points!👍
would they not have seen the vasi when they broke out and were looking at dead red ???
@@jlh9910 Excellent question n observation! Unfortunately I’m witnessing pilots that are so consumed with utilizing automation correction that NO ONE is looking outside much less fly the airplane. This is partially a carryover from flying the Bus. Then we add in fatigue, get home or hotel I tiss, night time light blending and there is your recipe for disaster. To preface your question, we do not know at what point did the crew actually have the visibility to see the approach lights or PAPI versus 3rd party or outsource video. Most VASI’s on the planet have been replaced with PAPI’s.
In my local newspaper in Germany, not too far from Leipzig they reported, that the captain is the one who died unfortunately. And the other 3 crew members survived, 1 with only minor injuries and 2 with serious injuries. I have seen footage of the crash and am still baffled how 3/4 of the crew survived this. Thanks to the first responders too, who helped the survivors escape the wreckage.
the point is that when the plane fell, the cockpit was not engulfed in fire, and the crew member in the best condition, who was in the cabin of the plane - a Lithuanian - got out of the wreckage himself and helped the rescuers and medics by indicating the number of crew members and where exactly they were. Thank God the rescuers, firefighters and medics arrived incredibly quickly and worked professionally, we hope the seriously injured crew members in the cockpit will recover.
jesus, talk about being lucky to only be injured in THAT O_O
Yes, in the first reports the First Officer was reported to be the pilot who died but it is now confirmed that it was in fact the 62 years old Captain. It´s probably he who we can here at this radio transmissions because it was also reported that the FO was the Pilot Flying.
A raktérben a löszer robbant fel, szerintem a pilóta fülke leszakadt, és ezért sikerült túlélni.
check out the old video from United 232 from 1986. About two two thirds of the passengers survived a incredible crash.
I'm a freight dog. With greatest respect to your experience and background, flying freight is not the dire (almost dangerous) situation that is painted here. While fatigue may turn out to be a factor, it's not necessarily the cause of the accident. Proper rest and fatigue management is especially important as we often fly on the back side of the clock and must manage the effects on the circadian rhythm. As professional and experienced airmen we use excellent CRM, strict adherence to SOP, and apply our airmanship and experience to move the metal and deliver the "rubber dogsh*t" day after day and night after night, successfully and safely. This accident is awful; our thoughts and prayers go out to the families, friends and colleagues of those that lost their lives.
I know a few cargo pilots and more than a few truckers. People love their packages on time or ideally, early. Y'all literally keep the entire world going so to me, there's probably not a more dire or potentially dangerous job I can think of right off the top of the head.
Your thoughts and prayers do not go out to them. They don't go anywhere. They stay inside your head.
Fully agree! I too am a freightdog and have experienced people who think we're lesser pilots or less professional. In general (there are always exceptions) we're just as professional and proficient as passenger flying pilots, flying nearly identical aircraft. I don't think Juan is trying to paint freight pilots as being less safe, I hope no viewer draws that inaccurate conclusion.
@@edmoore3910could we please keep politics out of this? Thanks. No, I'm not a Harris supporter.
You are not a dog.
JUAN,
I could listen to you educate us layman in all things aviation all day long. What a gift you have been given. Thank you for being so articulate and professional.
I'd rather stick to aviation here, personally.
“Content not suitable for all advertisers”? It’s a plane crash analysis what the heck is wrong with TH-cam? 🤷🏻♂️
Maybe they meant DHL may not want to advertise here.
That would require a rather long youtube video to cover adequately...
Nothing. You can see the crash on other channels. Some people are just afraid to get “demonetized”.
Many things.
commercialism and agenda.
I work in ATC myself and have also worked on occurence investigations. Very good summary and nice visualization.
With 4 miles from touchdown at their speed equals 1,5 - 2 minutes to go, they were still too fast, not configured for landing, still intercepting the LOC, read back the wrong tower freq so not established communication with tower... so many things at once, that leaves space for errors, especially with fatigue being an additional factor during that time of day and in aviation in general, especially for cargo pilots.
Lets wait for the investigations, scary incident.
Incidents and accidents are happening all over the world, but I never in my life thought of seeing my home airport in this channel. Condolences to the victims.
Thank you for your quality content!
As a 21-year short-haul pilot and ex-B737/A320 Line Trainer, it never ceases to amaze me how after all the line training and line checks, you still find crews who just smash on into the approach and are seemingly oblivious to any stable approach criteria. Intercepting the G/S at 190+ knots is just a recipe for disaster. Excellent analysis as always Juan.
Maybe they were worried they would lose their 44 knot headwind once they got lower and added a speed margin.
190kts isn't that excessive and is recoverable if managed promptly and correctly.
I noticed in some of very first videos that came out on TH-cam of this crash, right when the aircraft broke out of the cloud base, they had a very high angle of attack (deck angle), made obvious by looking at the angles of the nose gear taxi light and the flap track fairing mounted lights beneath each wing…
There’s also another video taken from what looks to be a ski lift tower that shows a little bit more detail… You can see the much higher than usual angle of attack for about the first 6-8 seconds after breaking out of the clouds, then decreases to something that looks more of a normal angle of attack in the landing configuration for about 4-5 seconds, then the wing drops and impact… Also, to my eyes, it looked like this approach was being flown very fast, it seemed like they were moving 30+ knots faster than normal… Just my observations, I have 25+ years and 20,000+ hours in many models of 737s…
I thought the same here. Miscommunication, too much speed, trying to be fast.
Aviate, Navigate, Communicate.
these observations (high aoa and airspeed, eventual stall) are consistent with a lack of flaps
As a non-pilot I took the dropping of the wing as either mechanical failure or a stall but it seemed too fast and shallow angle for a stall.
I noticed the nose high light angle as well.
Boeing fixed the allegedly radio altimeter faulty that stalls and crashes 737 near runways, right?
TH-cam's idea of censorship is beyond ridiculous.
It’s a profit driven platform. They only do it to avoid any problems from advertisers. They don’t care one way or the other. It’s just capitalism.
It’s ridiculous that an advertiser would possibly take issue with 100% educational content though.
yeah. the donkey party... another reason they lost
@@MeppyMan
They only care about 1) money, and 2) the cash cow, advertisers. That is why there is no down-vote count.
Extremest find reasons to censor everything
I listened to a longer version between the tower and postman. There was a lot of discussion if they were approved for ILS landing. A lot of confusion there.
Is there a youtube video with that? Or a website where I could find it?
Back in the 90s we flew a lot of late night, back of the clock flights. My airline flew 737-200s and 300s (much like the 400 but a bit shorter). After a long day, even the best FOs had a propensity to end up high, fast and behind the airplane on many of these late arrivals. It got to the point that I purposely worked the leg rotation so that I flew the last, late leg. Getting slowed down and on profile is essential at the end of a long, tiring day. It only takes one unexpected "candy bar-in-the-swimming pool" -- the wrong tower frequency in this case -- when you are pushing the limits to push things into the danger zone.
Thanks Bob. As a former commuter pilot in the 1970’s, it was much more challenging flying at night- and we always were scheduled to land before 11 pm- flying from midnight to 6 am is rough on the body and mind- and it was well known by everyone in our industry that “ over night and over water “ was the highest risk in flying.
LOL, it's a Baby Ruth!!
Top quality review of data! .... as usual. Thanks Juan!!!!!!
Note: I've spent thousands of hours flying Navy Flight Simulators as a software engineer and tech. Wish I had Juan to teach me all the ATC interaction. Love the channel.
Very impressive Juan, you very quickly analize the flight data that is available, understand it and explain what is most likely to have happened. Your knowledge and understanding is impressive. Thank you for sharing it with us.
From the initial QNH error to the overspeed it is clear that the crew were not on top of the approach. Being in a rush is not safe and if tired you need to take your time and double/treble check everything. The voice recorder will hopefully help.
There is a reason for the stable callout before final aproach, if youre not 100% ready go arround and land once you are 100% ready.
Then the radio goes quiet on final with no time to go back to approach frequency
black boxes are already retreived from the crash site.
Excellent summation and explanation as always Juan. It will be very interesting to see what the black boxes reveal but I'm willing to bet you're not far off the mark.
Thank heavens most people survived! Condolences to the family of the fatally injured pilot though.
Screw TH-cam and their stupid rules- I can watch women shave their pubic areas as "educational" but a distant fireball of a crash demonetizes a true educational channel!
You do a great job as always Juan. I just wish that EVERY controller treated EVERY transmission like their loved ones life depended on it. Speak a tiny bit slower, and clearer, and perhaps you may save a life one day. If not- it cost you nothing.
Given godlike powers making it so the internet is properly free is one of the things on my tudo list.
And they very much speak too fast. Do they not consider that what theyre saying is by default less clear because of the way the radios work?
Indeed.
I need to start studying LOL - but you're right - ridiculous !!!! - I've seen the crash on several channels - I don't get it...???
Google censorship in action.
@@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714What an absolutely stupid thing to say. The internet IS totally free. You can post whatever you like on websites you own and control. You are not entitled to upload whatever you like to other people's websites, just like you're not allowed to post signs on your neighbours lawn, for example.
You're right - this is about freedom - the freedom to control whatever property you own. TH-cam hosts an insane amount of data free of charge. Sure, they'd like you to either pay for a subscription or watch ads, but we all know how trivially easy it is to bypass both those things. Now I'm no fan of Google, but TH-cams system is about as fair as they can make it without having to charge everyone huge fees.
Great material.
Just to clarify, it was not DHL flight, it was SWIFTAIR, a contractor for DHL. AIrcraft was half painted in DHL colours, as it is part of the contract.
I work as a maintenance engineer in another cargo hub in Germany, and we maitain the cargo aircrafts, contractors for DHL, UPS, FeDex, etc.
As a former freight dog pilot, only I can say that they were far behind the aircraft, but the twr freq was not the only distractiion, I think that lack of answear about MIZOP point has created a lot of confusion in the flight deck. APP Controler played a important role in this accident. It was prime example to GO AROUND.
We currently don't know how important or not important the ATCs role were in causing this accident.
Thanks Juan, look in which bed they ended up. 🙏
Some mental gates that should remind every “airman” to mentally get ready for a possible go around: Inside the FAP, OM check hight, 1000’ or 500’ AGL/stabilized criteria plus VERY important: if one has a feeling that “something is not right”.
15NM out on a looong final I once convinced my Pilot Monitoring with a few words to give me time to get the damn ILS needles in place until the FAP. The approach details & CRM feelings were later discussed at the bar in the hotel as there were many facets involved. My learning of the event: 1) have the other pilot speak up EARLY. 2) On a 2 crew flight deck t is of utmost importance to adopt the speed to the slower mind of poth pilots. Even if that possibly sucks a bit🙈.
Thanks for your initial analysis again.
3 of 4 survived. Absolutely astounding.
i have read that one of them actualy walked out of the cockpit. Im not sure if first responders found him outside or did they came inside and he walked out with them
I suspect we won't hear praise of Boeing for that in the news
Yeah it also missed a lot of residential buildings only hitting one house
Another expert talk on what we're seeing about the movements all the way up to the scene of the crash. Thanks for the primer on capturing the ILS intercept.
For any ATC person watching this - KEEP COMMUNICATION STANDARD - treat every day as a check day - lets keep it safe out there 👍
Unfortunately it's usually the pilots who violate standard radio terminology. It's a huge problem with military pilots so it filters down into commercial aviation due to hiring military trained pilots and non-military pilots who want to sound as cool as those guys. 🫤
@@danoberste8146 True sadly, but it’s no reason for ATC to fall into that bad habit, nor speak too fast especially at 4 am when the traffic is not exactly busy…
ATC should be making pride of having an impeccable phraseology and pronunciation at all times, and not hesitate to call back on pilots who speak poorly.
Pilots must owe respect to ATC just as the other way around.
That’s just being professional. And it’s essential for flight safety, although it’s largely disregarded.
@@joso5554 Watching these videos with ATC extracts, I often don't understand at all what their jabber is about. Too fast, accents... If I was younger and thinking about becoming pilot, I would chose a different job just for that reason!
Maybe ATC should have alternate option to establish communication by texting to the pilots the message of correct radio frequency emphasizing correct reading of numbers including commas etc clearly relying to the pilots especially when English is their second language ESL that can lead to miscommunication of decimal points of numbers that are relevant information for understanding in this case frequency of the radio.
@@jetsetter8541 I've been thinking this ^ for a long time. So much radio traffic is exactly what I, as a GA pilot, was expecting ATC to say, and most of mine are scripted phrases I anticipated making while I was briefing myself hours ago. With today's technology, ipads, apps, test to speech/speech to text, phones, wifi, bluetooth, etc., it seems that even low hour pilots on a budget could be well-served by a little less radio traffic and a LOT more good information delivered otherwise. Leave the radio for urgent, unexpected traffic. We're all less likely to filter out and ignore radio calls if we knew they ALL were of dire importance.
I've avoided other sources regarding this accident, so much obliged, Juan, for taking the time and make another of your very high quality analysis.
Thank you Juan. I have been waiting for your analysis of this incident.
Another fine job Juan of explaining how the localizer and glide slope work. Thank you.
11:18 Shortly after the accident, Poland sent a plane to tests if localizer and glideslope, and all other airport systems are working correctly. According to Lithuanian press, they didn’t find anything unusual. Also i live just below 3 mile final on MIZOP approach, and the planes were landing all day using that approach, so i don’t think that airport systems have anything to do with it.
Very informative video btw, thank you.
Rudens gatvė?
@ šilo
I flew as a night freight dog for 10 years on the 727 and DC-8 all over the world. We had a couple outlaw captains who did everything their way but in large we knew the odds were stacked against us, so we tried to fly the slowest most stabilized approach passible. Later I retired as a 777 pilot for a major U.S. airline. The company's AQP program always showed the 737 pilots were hot dogs and the other aircraft types were extremely professional. Scores for the 777 were always above 99 with the 757/767 very close behind. 737 pilots were normally in the low 80s. Luckly in my career I never flew light twins (737 or DC-9) for a living.
Now we have OFDM and if you bust a limit multiple times you get fired.
Saw a ‘hot dog’ flying a 737-200 from CYYC TO CYCG. Normally that approach comes from the North to RWY 16. Not this guy! He threaded down the valley 90 deg to the right of RWY 16 which is like a stones throw away!
He banked that sucker like a fighter jet then snapped wings level at the same time he punched the numbers!
That was in the late 70’s and I STILL get goosebumps thinking about it!
AWESOME!💕🇨🇦
The 737 is not easy to slow down, in fact it’s hard compared to the DC9, the Fk00, and the A320. I didn’t mention the DC3. If energy management is handled correctly then there is time to anticipate and stay ahead of the aircraft. If not you can get so behind the aircraft it’s not true.
Your post is very informative.
I heard a pilot comment that often the 737 culture is driven more by low cost fast turnaround. The legs are shorter and so those approaches are a bigger portion of the flights.
On the other hand the long haul flights don't spend as much relative time in approach, and after a really long flight they're more apt to just play it by the book.
I have no idea how true it is, but it seems to roughly align with these comments.
@RichFreeman I fly lowcost 737 and I fly 180kts at 10 NM from the runway.
There are people who like to fly fast but if you bust the stable approach below 500ft and land you get fired.
The flight is monitored by FDM and the aircraft sends the data to the company after landing.
There was room in the 90s but in Europe or US you can't get away with it
Thank you for the video and the explanations - the very best I’ve seen so far.
I’d like to add one specific thought for the non-aviatiors what’s going on in a two-pilot-cockpit: the PM (Pilot monitoring) has - amongst other things - the duty to talk to the ATC and monitor the actions of the PF (Pilot flying), to execute certain commands by the PF and so on. But the PM is NOT flying the aircraft => in general (if not hand-flying), the PF is setting the QNH (not the PM), the Altitude, the Heading, the A/P modes etc.
So, if the PM gives a false readback, this doesn’t mean that the false value has been set on the flightdeck by the PF, because the PF listening the radio too and is setting the value directly according the ATC instruction. (Additionally the PM can give a wrong readback, but did understand and memorize the correct value.)
Of course it would be the duty of the PM, the PF and / or the ATC the clarify any wrong readbacks or misunderstandings.
To make a long story short: what’s on the radio doesn’t have to reflect what’s executed on the flightdeck.
Once again, i think you nailed it Juan. Just glad they didn’t have a full set of passengers back there.
One thing that got my attention from the videos showing the crash is that 1 or 2 seconds prior to the crash the aircraft has a significant and sudden bank to the left. The aircraft impacts the ground is with the left wing. I was susprised this was not mentioned on this video that in any case is an excellent video reporting the available information at this moment but take a look at the last seconds prior to the crash and see the sudden and significant bank to the left before impact.
Probably realized too late that they were low and slow and tried a last second pull up, causing a stall.
Yes also saw that in the 2nd video where you clearly see a wing down 1-2 seconds prior hitting the ground....
@@djinn666they couldn’t have been slow though because he said just prior to the crash they had an increase in V/S and Ground speed
@@FlyTaylor Go look at the data at 4:30. They were both descending and slowing down very quickly. From 196 kts at 2075 ft down to 146 kts at 875 ft (225 ft AGL). Only the very last data point seems to show a speed-up of 5 kts. Not sure what's going on there, but the recorded altitude of 600 ft is already underground, so I'd consider it an unreliable data point.
Before jumping to conclusions, consider that generally one wing will drop before the other in a stall.
See stall spin or asymmetric stall
What an excellent, fact based analysis, amidst all this speculation! Big compliments 👏
Great review sir , you explain it simply to people like me that don’t fly themselves but are interested in people that do.
Thx Juan for another brilliant analysis.
That whole approach was unstabilozed and that sudden nose down at the end was weird to say the least.
Time and investigation will tell.
RIP the pilot.
The thrust reversers were induced, betcha!
Hasn't there been 3 Boeing aircraft "dropping" out of the sky (At around 1,000 ft) in the last year? Hawaii, Kansas and ?Europe?
As a retired professional pilot, your summation of this approach is making sense . There is video I have seen that shows the aircraft making a sudden nose over which takes it quickly off the glide slope in a nose low attitude, from my viewing of it, and it crashes seconds later.
Agree and another video shows a right hand bank and a tail-drop few seconds before impact. At least 10 seconds before impact they had visual on the runway's ALS (OVC 005).
YES! .....I noticed that too. A sudden intentional or (UN-) pitch down well before short finals of that ILS approach .... Why?
The surveillance clip showing such a sudden nose down maneuver will be key in this. That was so bizarre to see.
It did roll to left.
That’s what I saw too, the sudden dip.
@@jarikinnunen1718 Struck part a house
It looked liked to me the aircraft nose pitched up before the crash like they noticed it last minute. I also thought maybe they were initiating a go-around at the same time and the engines obviously didn’t have time to spool up.
@@joecline1114 That's what you can see in other footage, then one wing drops, or hits something
I wasn't looking at the screen, and I clearly heard ATC say the 2 in 118.205. Thank you Juan, keep working.
Atc most probably said "dot" not "two"
I also clearly heard 118 205
@@fotisdim2546 Why should she spell out the 'dot'? That makes no sense, as the first three digits are always followed by the digits behind the decimal point. Also one has to consider that she is used to spell this frequency a hundred times per week correctly. She said it correctly but a little bit muffled.
@@onlycartoons2012 same here
Yeah, but should have said daycimal two, so the two didn't get lost
Thank you as always for the facts, analysis, restraint from speculation, and respect for all parties.
I'm from Vilnius, thanks for review, also that night was very big wind gusts
Nice channel @blancolirio, accurate and fair analysis. I am sure there will be multiple learning points from the final report. Sadly it seems like the sort of points that have been covered many times in the past.
That anyone survived that crash is miraculous. Were the 3 survivors not in the cockpit at impact?
Edit: Thanks @Glegh for the explanation that the cockpit broke off at impact, kept on going, and left the rest of the plane with the fuel behind.
..seriously miraculous..that was my first thought...
Apparently the cockpit broke off and continued on.
@@Gleghyeah the pictures I have seen shows the cockpit broken off and mostly intact (considering the impact)
being in the cockpit probably saved their life, because it broke up and kinda like a rescue capsule.
@@fgbae8220it's kinda like American international airways 808 they also had the cockpit brake off and slide away from the fire although in that case all crew lived.
Lastly, the use of level change below 1000 feet to capture the glideslope is prohibited, but many crews still utilize that method. The 737 normal procedure requires disengaging the autothrottle at 500 feet or before landing. Review Turkish Airlines Boeing 737 crash in Amsterdam, failed radar altimeter.
This crash reminds indeed to Turkish Airlines flight 1951 crash in Amsterdam
Apparently 5G is messing with radar altimeters and also weather radars (ground radars for rain and humidity)... Frequencies could be too similar.
(I'm not a specialist, but I've heard pilots complaining about this, and have to agree that in my local area weather forecasts are much less accurate than they used to be, when it comes to rain...)
Very well explained backed by the most accurate data at this point. Good job as always!
CFII here. this crash reminds me of the Eastern Airlines crash in the Everglades 1970s...PF got distracted with what PM/FE were doing about a lightbulb and descended very controllably into the ground. Perhaps the PF in this crash was overwhelmed by the lack of stability, high airspeed, and LOC overshoot that the distraction from the PM messing with the radios was enough to make his attention lapse & auger it in. Just my 2 cents.
EAL 401. First fatal incident for the Lockheed L-1011.
Really good factual analysis without speculation from a highly qualified professional pilot. I watch ALL his videos.
Thanks Juan - you answered a question I had. The jet was on the glideslope and localizer. Which makes it a real mystery. The demonitization criteria is totally out of control.
Condolences to the family and friends RIP .Speedy recovery to the survivors .
Lack of comms on the final approach suggests they were very busy and/or surprised. I feel like they had something misconfigured and discovered that very late maybe just as they came out from the soup. Also if you’re coming in fast that means their timing and cadence will be slightly off. You have less time to react and a bunch of stuff you’d be doing intuitively on different beats now has to happen on a different cadence.
Like... speedbrake?
@@OrbitalCookie e.g.
What a terrible thing to have happen. We appreciate your analysis of the situation and are interested in hearing the preliminary report. Prayers for the survivors and Godspeed to the deceased. Fair winds and following skies.
Hi Juan, spanish native speaker here. He does read back 2700ft, and in fact it sounds pretty clear to me exactly as Víctor from VASAviation writes down.
JB, love the technical term on your camera "JANKEE". LOL.
RIP the pilot that perished. 🙏🏼
I live in Vilnius. From the descent route, Vilnius airport is on the hill. The point where aircraft crashed is exactly where the top of the hill starts. It looks like aircraft was flying on lower altitude, not taking into account that there is a steep elevation just before the airport landing, around 2 km from landing runway
I know it’s been said elsewhere but I have to say it again…these guys *impacted terrain* at over 140kt and most of them survived (at least initially…we’ll see, I guess). That is absolutely incredible, man…
Two of the four survived
The initial impact was'nt directly to the ground, they bounced and stalled.
@@barbaravyse660 *Three of the four survived.
As a Lithuanian I can say that she told 118205, she missed to tell decimal. Yep this is our accent... The frequencies must been programed by this time at approach.. Speedy approach, unstable.. basically go around, it's not a huge airport that you have to wait long in que for second landing.. Simply pilots behind a plane, weather and visibility after cloud brake was good.. How many of these crashes I saw in various documentaries when pilots rushed.. First crash in our country independence time and kinda lucky by damages and casualties...
Juan, your evaluations are beyond impressive. I'm amazed by your graphic abilities to overlay information which really helps us understand the situation. Your knowledge is outstanding. Thank you!
Thanks for the additional information about this crash here, it was very interesting and added more details to my thoughts about it! Have a nice day!
Thanks, Juan ( AGAIN) for your early, informed perspective on a developing story!
See ya here.
I wonder if they deployed the spoilers to slow down and then forgot to retract them and stalled the plane while pitching up trying to maintain altitude
I thought of that too - Juan mentioned no one being the pilot flying when they went visual that's a related possibility
My thoughts also - pulling up hard with spoilers deployed affects airflow over the wing like excessive angle of attack - did it initiate a stall causing wing to drop? Will 737-400 allow full spoilers & flaps deployed simultaneously? I want to see the flight recorder data.
Almost unbelievable 3 survived. Great job, Juan. Condolences to pilots family.
Yup- that apparent wing drop may be a stall. Odd at that speed tho.
Please look at the footage from the ski slope, you see the wing stall.
Although the speed was fast, the approach became stabilized on the localizer and also (seems to be) the glide slope until they came out of the clouds at ~800. I think you are right that spoilers/flaps were not set right and there was a sudden attempt to correct at low airspeed. The video appears to show one wing going high which could indicate a stall. Curious accident.
Thanks for the review.
I've seen the lateral view of the glide path flown into the fireball. There's a sharp increase in the sink rate at the end that leads into the crash event. My first thought was the Auropilot disconnected coupled with nose down trim input as in a runaway trim.
Incredible that anyone survived that. Horrible to watch that sudden roll to the right. My only experience with aviation is a bit of gliding IRL and flight sims flying for a virtual airline so do understand most of the procedures involved.
One thing I learned today is why you have to capture the localizer first, never considered the possible reason but now Juan has explained it, it's obvious.
Nice work as always Juan.
I’m a 56 yo instrument student pilot and this accident really drives home the need to pay attention to the details. So, this is a lesson on how important it is to stay ahead of the airplane and recognize when you are not and take action. Thanks for this breakdown and really gets into the details that so many ignore. Keep up the great work!
I think protocols at tower could also be improved. After all as I understand, tower takes ownership when it comes to landing these birds from their perspective. The lost communication between pilot and tower in terms of radio setup is a fail. It just creates inneficiencies. Bank call centers even more precise on procedures.
Hello Juan, according to Boeing statistics, 87% of the 737 operators have configured that their airplane's glideslope will not be captured until localized. The first step is a stabilized approach. If not, VMC conditions at 1000 feet go around. Other ways to get down to the glideslope would be setting an altitude of 1000 feet MCP and increasing the VS with the autopilot engaged at 1000 ft./min. Lastly, younger pilots are very dependent on automation, so turning off the autopilot manually and flying the airplane down to the glide slope while maintaining localizer would be an option, but probably not the first thing they would think of.
Thank you very much for this explanation. Reports say that the Captain was 62 years old and the Pilot Monitoring, the age of the Pilot Flying is not reported so far. The Captain was the Pilot who passed away.
My own take is that if you've missed the glideslope just admit it to ATC and get vectored for another go. This approach was already messed up when they turned base leg. Salvaging an approach at stupid o'clock is difficult. If you can't salvage it, the go around could be mayhem
Two thoughts: First, I have jump seated a lot on cargo flights. I have enormous respect for those crews because it is hard to see the runway in low ceilings and easy to get behind the airplane.
Second, I don’t think it unreasonable to conclude they were behind the airplane. The videos I have seen don’t obviously show anything wrong until it is clear that they are going to be short.
The fact that one of the pilots and the jumpseaters survived is a miracle. It is the one piece of good news in what otherwise was a terrible accident.
What would have caused you to be in a jumpseat?
Are you an airline pilot or co-pilot who would transit to or from home before or after a "duty session"?
@ Dispatcher.
@@thevirtualflightdispatcher4135 thanks for the reply.
Love all of your breakdown scenerios. I just had to subscribe
Welcome Aboard!
Thank you very much for this close and very informative debrief about what we know so far.🙂👍 It looks like as if an unstable approach was the start of this event. But indeed: Something must then have happened at the very last moments of the flight what turned it into a disaster. It was reported that CVR and FDR were meanwhile recovered. So hopefully they can be read out - and probably the CVR will show then what happened during this crucial last moments.
Btw.: It was probably the first flight of the crew at this day. DHL isn´t delivering packages on Sunday in Europe, the DHL main hub in Leipzig is closed on Sunday. This specific aircraft came in from Cologne on Saturday, November, 23rd at 0:14 am and was parked at Leipzig during the weekend. Its next flight was the accident flight. But the Pilots had obviously to show up at the airport very early on monday morning - the aircraft departed Leipzig at 3:07 am on Monday morning = in the middle of the circadian low. Maybe this contributed to the crash, too.
LEJ Hub is not closed on Sunday. It is closed on Saturday.
If there was nothing broken with the jet... $100 bucks says they left the damn flight spoilers still out.
Thought that too .. they got rid of a lot of speed, probably with help of a speedbrake... which the may have forgotton..
I saw the fireball on video. It is unbelievable that anyone survived.
are you okay? did you get a trigger warning? lol
It is possible that the front of the plane broke away from the rest and was not engulfed in the fireball.
Most likely the cockpit separated and gradually came to a stop.
Becose impact direction was going downhill. If in front of descending plane was hill going up , then there were diferent story.After the crash , there was no fast stop , disintegraded parts were roling for 200 meters. Suden stop during impact makes 100 and 1000 G's, what eventualy killls humans.
Behind is correct. Should alresdy have frequecy programmed in, only requiring a turn of a knod to switch radios or a press on a botton to flop the frequencies. Also, should have saw a difference in the programmed one and what they thought the controller said.
In training I was taught if you change frequencies and nobody there.... GO BACK TO THE ONE YOU JUST CAME FROM.
Juan, as always exemplary reporting on your channel. Always on point and very easy to understand.
I have a question to you and other aviators, with all the technology that is available today why isn’t there cameras inside the cockpit that monitors the pilots and connected to the flight tower so they can see while communicating with them?
Be safe my friend.
When an aviation accident is reported on the news media I immediately attempt to think of possible scenarios that may have been the result but like with the majority of folks following you I look forward to your coverage of the incident as was my experience with this one. I enjoy your explanation of certain things for the benefit of the non aviation savy viewers and think you do an exceptional job with it. I have great trust and respect in you and appreciate your love and passion in aviation. Thank you for this informative presentation. Wishing you and your family a Happy Thanksgiving.
Hey Juan, your webcam is being janky because it's not getting enough light onto the sensor. The required exposure time at the available light level is greater than than the duration of 1 frame of video (probably 1/30th of second). There's only two ways to fix it, increase the illumination or get a different camera with a larger aperture. A quick way to test this would be to aim a powerful work light at the ceiling and make a test recording. You probably need 2 to 4 times greater illumination than you currently have.
The ADS-B data shows ground speed. So, with an 18-knot headwind on the glideslope, the airspeed is 19 MPH faster than that which was recorded. This approach was flown much faster than you frame it in this video, Juan.
Too fast right up to the point when they wanted landing clearance from Tower. Then those efforts to slow the plane caught up while they weren't paying attention to airspeed and altitude.
I mean, they're doing 190 KIAS on a ~2 nm final and 170 kts some mile from touchdown. That has to be 30-40 kts faster than your usual 734 Vref. They'd have to fly that final approach on idle!
@@matibucholski ADS-B data shows a ground speed of 159 knots at an altitude of 1050 feet (400 feet above ground level) about 2 miles from the end of Runway 19. Add 18 knots of headwind and the airspeed is about 177 kts (204 MPH) at that point in the approach.
Once Again, Thank You Juan For Your Insight . . Cheers . .
Thanks, Juan! Another very fine explanation of what might have gone wrong.... If I remember correctly, Marko Ramius, the skipper of "Red October," is from Vilnius. Just my recollection. Have fun poking holes in the sky!
Excellent analysis, Juan. I learn so much and appreciate your work. Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family.
The second camera perspective from the previous video shows the plane rolling to what looks like close to a 90° bank angle just before impact. It'll be interesting to learn if the flight data recorder shows any indication of a sudden technical issue with the airplane.
Dear Juan,
I am a Patreon supporter, besides being subscribed here. I thank you for everything you do!
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Since you have pinned your correction at the top, I don’t have to hit this hard. The reason I’m writing has to do with your pronunciation of VILNIUS.
•
As you have illustrated above, the pronunciation is NOT Vil-in-knee-us, but indeed, VIL-KNEE-US, just 3️⃣ syllables. And your correction above shows you already aware of this.
•
All that’s left to say is HAPPY THANKSGIVING, to you & your whole family. Thank you so much for all your great efforts for us.
•
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✌🏽😉👋🏽.
Yesterday when I first watched the VAS aviation video I heard the approach controller said "118 DOT 05" for the tower freq. Only after I read that the tower is 118.205, and after two replays of that particular section of the video, did I realize that she was saying "118205".
And the Pilot Monitoring of this flight heard obviously the same.
I have listen to this sequence many, many times (at 02:16 / VASaviation video). I hear 1-1-8-0-5. For me there is no indication that the ATC controller said "decimal" or "two", I'm sure she simply missed that digit "2". This explains for me that the pilot replys - with no doubt in his voice - 1-1-8-0-5. And by the way, English is not the native language of either the pilots nor ATC, and their native language is not the same but rather different.
Same.
@@NicolaW72 The controller missed two incorrect readbacks - the QNH and the frequency. I'm guessing she's not sleeping well after this accident. To be fair to her, the guys should have had the correct frequency already up on standby.
The Lithuanian controller spoke a wee bit fast.
Sir, good job on this video! (Lithuanian native speaker here) But there is one "but": let me agree to disagree, but she did not drop '2' she did say '118.205', not '118.05'; (then pilot says '118.05' and she said nothing). Lastly, you are right she did not say '118 decimal 205'.
Great analysis, especially with the reasonings behind, thank you Juan
Saw the headline but KNEW that I could only count on Juan to give an objective viewpoint. So here I am now.
Same here 👍
Get a room
It looks like these guys were pretty balled up at the end. Rule of thumb for the 737. At 10 miles and still 250 knots, on glide, it’s almost impossible to stabilize for a safe landing. These guys were near or above that framework near the end, wrong freq set on the radio. All indicators they were not stabilized. Difficulty with comms and accents. All night flight and it’s dark with weather. Just a general recipe for more mistakes in the background, and ultimately a tragedy. Sad for those involved!
They may have gone VS mode to capture the GS from above, got distracted by the loss of comms with the tower, and remained at the VS initially set to capture the GS from above.
I teach crews that attempt to capture the GS from above is always fraught with danger, and very special attention must be paid to the situational awareness, or go around. The distraction of the loss of comms may well have been all that was required to distract the crew.
Things happen very fast in the last 5 miles, especially when the approach is unstable.
Excellent overview again. As tragic as these events are, I always look out for your videos. Thanks for the hard work you put in the information you provide for an avgeek like myself.
Hi Juan, excellent work as always. Fatigue is an issue and you can hear it from the voices, not only the crew but the controller as well. She didn’t correct any mistake (QNH and frequency), but this is not the cause of the accident, just another hole in the Swiss cheese. I see that it’s really hard to stay disciplined and stick to the SOPs but it’s worth to do so. It potentially saves your life…
On 24th September 2022, Swiftair crashed off the end at Montpellier in another 737. Aircraft was a write off. They started the approach fast and never got the speed back. Juan did great coverage of that accident. Watch it! The final report is not out but all does not seem to be well at Swiftair.
Not discussing if the freq by ATC was told in the correct manner but:
I don't know how people aren't hearing 118205, i know my ears are younger than most of the commenters (in my 20's), I'm guessing since this an EU flight ofcourse nobody's first language is English, from what I'm hearing, PRETTY WELL I MIGHT ADD, ATC just said the "2" in a more baltic way dropping that specific English "uiu" sound in TWO and making it Baltic/European so it sounds more like One One Eight Tu Zero Five. And i think thats why people aren't picking it up saying its the wrong freq. It isn't
The pens deal was JB brain flying his finest acrobatics. “Out in the rocks”?! From there on out his mile a minute brain wipes out 99% of comment section on VAS’s video and most other speculation. Oddly his mouth keeps up, my brain is smoked and he’s now off riding a motorcycle on a two inch wide trail in the mountains. Love it.
lol...it's getting harder and harder to keep up with myself.
Juan you have done an exceptional job of describing the steps that took place in this accident. The overlay of the data with the approach chart really brings into focus how far behind the airplane these guys got. Kudos to you for not drawing conclusion until the final investigation is complete on this one. Even as behind as they were, no clear explanation as to what happened after the broke out. It will be very interesing to see what they discover in the investigation for sure. Great work!
Great job on analyzing the data. Would certainly be interesting to see what the CVR might have captured during the approach. Thanks Juan. Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family.
A sudden loss of altitude late on approach is reminiscent of the Polderbaan incident where a radio altimeter failure caused the autothrottle to go to idle. Hopefully this is not a repeat of that scenario - the investigation will no doubt ask those very questions.
Great Review Analysis and Report...As Usual...👍👍👍
Pronunciation is important. Vil-ni-us, only 2 (i)s. Sorry, I had to say it. Love you channel.
Second 'i' is silent Vil- noose
Rip hombre. Thanks for another great video Juan
Great precepts and theories. The explanation of the glideslope/localizer , very clear.
Await the 'official' report to see how well your conjecture was.
Godspeed the pilot.
Best.