@@sparfuchs_618 It's really not if you understand the dynamics of how you play poker at all. Scotty doesn't have a stack so will push in any decent hand. K8 suited is very strong so an obvious call.
The odds of this happening are 1/1,758,276. Some will argue the odds are actually 1/2,331,473,976, but they would be wrong. This is because the first hand was immaterial, the fact that the same hand returned twice thereafter makes this significant.
You missed the fact that it went back to D Negs, does that not change the odds. If you consider the range the Nguyen was going all in with every time aswell the odds are dramatically higher.
Your math logic is correct, but your poker logic is not. The first hand IS material, because for most hands, the players would not have called the All-in, and this situation would not have been revealed.
@@fredactDepends what situation we are calculating the odds of - if its chance of this happening with an all in and a call, that's impossible to calculate unless we are estimating. Odds of these hands are correct though.
@@lucas29476 yeah you and fredact make really good arguments. Certainly could alter the calculation with both those or either of those in mind. It gets quite muddy when you calculate the odds of "something weird happening", because you would react the same over a large number of weird things.
I’m probably wrong, but I’ll take a swipe at it: The first time the Kc8c was dealt doesn’t matter. It could have been any two cards. What matters is that the same two cards were dealt in two more consecutive hands… So, for the second hand, we can say the odds of drawing the Kc were 2 in 52, because there are two hole cards. Getting the 8c would then be 1 in 51. (edited per @jj344444’s comment below) Multiplied, this means getting Kc8c would be a 1 in 1,326 chance. BUT, that’s if they’re dealt to the same player. In this case, there were three “eligible” players to get the hand vs Scotty, so we multiply that 1 in 1,326 by 3, which makes it a 1 in 442 chance that SOME player (other than Scotty) will get the cards in the following hand. To happen again, we multiply 1 in 442 by 1 in 442, which gives us 1 in 195,364. So, extremely unlikely, but still quite possible. (Please correct me if my approach or math is wrong - it’s been decades since my statistics classes!)
minor error: second card is 1/51 since youve already taken a card out of the deck from your perspective also if you want you could inflate the probabilty by looking at scottys shoving range, but looking at his beverage, it seems that could be as high as 50% lol
@@jj344444 oops thank you! I think my math is okay but I mis-typed 1 in 51 as 1 in 52. And good point about Scotty shoving… I guess this probably happens plenty with hands like 92o but no one knows because they don’t make it to showdown. So, there’s a good point to be made about *witnessing* three hands in a row like this.
@@truthsmiles also i dont think the hands are all in a row, the last 2 seemingly were but if you look closely, after the first hand daniel moved from bb to utg, which is not how the dealer button moves, so there was a cut there
I don’t think the times 3 makes sense. Each player is elegible yes, but after the first player fails, there are less cards in the deck and possibly one of the cards was taken by a previous player. Therefore the odds will be the 2/52 then the 1/51 for the first guy, but then 50/52 * 49/51 (odds the Kc and 8c remain in deck) * 2/50 * 1/49 (times the chance this second player gets the Kc and 8c). And for the third guy you’d do the same thing, just two more cards out. Now if you add all of these together that should make the chance of any player getting the exact hand. I’m not sure that I’m completely correct maybe I messed up huge somewhere in that math, I still feel like it might make some sense to subtract the chance someone gets K8 of c from the chance that it remains in the deck but it’s been a bit since my combinatorics class so who knows anymore, but I do think this is more in the right direction.
I once rode on a elevator with one of these players at Wynns . He loudly passed wind into the silence , and there were kids present. He never batted an eye.😮
@@MiscName I suppose I should not have expected an apology from a poker player. They are expected to remain emotionless. Embarrassed the heck out of my kids though, especially as all the gas was at their face level and it all blew right into their faces.
why are they calling chips in dollar denominations? is there some kind of cash game aspect or just one of those tournaments that calls chips “dollars”?
It's funny how u fools say the "tittle is click bait" when the game is really like that lmao if you know the rythem of the came and consistency of the cards it can be done. Ask me I'll show you my highlight
Did anyone actually calculate the odds of that happening? Is it even possible to calculate the odds of that happening? Playing against the exact same two cards three times in a row?
Here's my maths. We start off with three assumptions, that the hand the person called with the first round is good enough to call with every time (it'd be too hard to estimate the odds of people calling, and it's a decent assumption because the person called once). We have three opponents (just the situation in the video). And we imagine the dealing doesn't impact the probabilities for the next player (it can increase/decrease the probability so should just about average out for small player counts, and I can't be faffed to deal with all the cases). The odds of someone getting the right cards is (2/52)*(1/51)=1/1326. There are three players, so it's (3/1326)*(3/1326)=1/195364 So about 1 in 200000. Or 0.0005%
There's a lot of layers to the calculation, and it depends on what you leave to chance. Such as - do all 3 hands need to be played against Scotty specifically or could it be anyone; will the hand that comes up 3x in a row always actually be played (like if the same unsuited 2, 7 pair came up 3 times it probably would have been folded each time) etc
As much fun as these vintage clips are with the classic commentary and players, I actually really dislike this form of poker - little better than a slot machine. I suppose back then where calling with K8s wasn't a snap call there might have been more (apparent) skill to it.. but once the blinds get so big, there really is little space for individual players to actually make their mark.
Considering the K and 8 would have to have 4 cars between them to be dealt to the same player (3 other hands and the burn card), its not that the cards are sticky
This happened to me a few years ago, a table of six players, I got a pair black jakes on x3 consecutive hands, after winning the hand for the third time, I asked out loud what’s the odds of that, then some nerdy hero smarty pants declares 226:1, I say twice maybe??, but three times, he was adamant, refused to take into calculation the chances for that to happen, it’s got to be something astronomical more . My first and only time playing there, a very toxic crowd. Mortdale Masonic club .NSW Australia. I prefer fun vibes, not a pack of unhappy grinders, happy 2024
(Edit: this math is wrong, see below correction) If you want the actual math, after all these years: There are 1326 possible combinations of starting hands. To get the same hand 3 times in a row is (1/1326) to the third power, which is roughly one in 2.33 *billion*. To put those odds in perspective, that's like asking a computer to come up with a number between 0 and 2.33 billion and you guess the exact number... Must've been a faulty shuffle or something, right? But crazy events happen!
@@NateLevin Not quite, There's no condition for the first hand to have a sequence of three consecutive identical hole cards so its just 1 * 1/1326 * 1/1326 or 1 in 1.7 million to get the same hole cards three times in a row. Since its just as remarkable if they were any other same color pair that would be 26/1326 * 1/1326 * 1/1326 its 1 in ~89 million. 1 in 2.33 billion is just the upper limit on the rarity of literally any combination of three sets of hole cards using this naive approach. A7 offsuit, JQ suited, 39 offsuit 1 in 2.33 billion AA ,AA, AA, 1 in 2.33 billion 27 offsuit, 27 offsuit, 27 offsuit, 1 in 2.33 billion
wow I had no idea how freaky that was then, so my next one probably be more astronomical. 5 at the final table, we all had flushes, that’s all 13 hearts in play. Every player had pocket hears,including me. No win for me but a brush with the poker gods I guess
What? It's possible. Definitely way too much work. It's just showing the odds of winning with your hand, with the board. The number would just always be low, because the chance any other opponent has trips exists for every spot, or quads lol
@@deathwrow9652 Would it be low? If there are 10 possible better hands but hundreds or thousands of worse possible hands, every player who didn't fold would all show as having chances in the 99s%+ of winning. How do you calculate in probability for human psychology, of bluff rates and variable ranges? You would need extensive psychological profiles of each player to even begin.
It's 1 in 110,141. The first hand is an establishing round and irrelevant from an probability standpoint, any 2 cards would be fine. The odds of the first hand establishing a run is 1 in 1. The odds of 2 specific cards (in this case K, 8 clubs) being in the hole are 2/52 * 1/51 = 1/1,326 or 0.08%. In a 4 player game, the chance of any player having that in any game is 1 - (0.9992 ^4) = 0.3% or 1 in 332. The chance of that happening a second time (3 straight) is 0.3% ^ 2 or 0.0009% which is 1 per 110,141 trials. Even if it needed to specifically be K,8 clubs it's only 0.3% ^ 3 which is 1 in 36,553,127 trials or 0.000027% edit to add: it looks like you correctly surmised there are 2,652 possible hold hands. What you were missing is that there are 2 "successes" (either K clubs then 8 of clubs or 8 clubs then K clubs) and that it could be delivered to any of 4 hands, not just a specific hand or consecutive hands.
![Daniel Negreanu Wins Super High Roller Bowl VII for $3,300,000 [Biggest Career Win!]](/img/n.gif)
Scotty had a new beer in each of these clips, and that is how I aspire to play poker
winners mentality right there despite losing 2/3
Best days of poker .. great to watch these characters and
Ofcourse with Vince and mike commentary
Popular hand right now?!!!.
It's impossible because it happened 3 times. At this point, it's quantum ar supernat......3:50
ikr I love Mike's voice
2005, when calling a 9BB SB shove with K8s was controversial.
It's still today
Lol ikr it's a an ez snap
@@sparfuchs_618 It's really not if you understand the dynamics of how you play poker at all. Scotty doesn't have a stack so will push in any decent hand. K8 suited is very strong so an obvious call.
and then calling an 18bb one for the same 9bb wasnt
@@Raumance Ye, the best at that time were just 15 years ahead by understanding the thought process of those move without needing a computer.
The odds of this happening are 1/1,758,276. Some will argue the odds are actually 1/2,331,473,976, but they would be wrong. This is because the first hand was immaterial, the fact that the same hand returned twice thereafter makes this significant.
You missed the fact that it went back to D Negs, does that not change the odds. If you consider the range the Nguyen was going all in with every time aswell the odds are dramatically higher.
Your math logic is correct, but your poker logic is not. The first hand IS material, because for most hands, the players would not have called the All-in, and this situation would not have been revealed.
@@fredactDepends what situation we are calculating the odds of - if its chance of this happening with an all in and a call, that's impossible to calculate unless we are estimating. Odds of these hands are correct though.
Need to account for different players getting it, by the way :)
@@lucas29476 yeah you and fredact make really good arguments. Certainly could alter the calculation with both those or either of those in mind. It gets quite muddy when you calculate the odds of "something weird happening", because you would react the same over a large number of weird things.
from Scotty being too drunk to get mad for getting bad beat by this madness of runouts, to nerds checking solvers in between hands.
yup everything was truly better back then
" bad beat"
None of these was a bad beat.
Mike Sexton's commentary has never been equaled.
Not click bait if your paying attention.. that is 3 consecutive hands in a row where someone was dealt the K/8 . ..
Also same suits(clubs)
It's impossible because it happened 3 times. At this point, it's quantum ar supernat......3:50
"i know that he would be great enough to make this call" 🤣
So, if you get King-Eight of Clubs you win two out of three hands when your opponent goes all in.
Valuable knowledge right there...
I’m probably wrong, but I’ll take a swipe at it:
The first time the Kc8c was dealt doesn’t matter. It could have been any two cards. What matters is that the same two cards were dealt in two more consecutive hands…
So, for the second hand, we can say the odds of drawing the Kc were 2 in 52, because there are two hole cards. Getting the 8c would then be 1 in 51. (edited per @jj344444’s comment below)
Multiplied, this means getting Kc8c would be a 1 in 1,326 chance.
BUT, that’s if they’re dealt to the same player. In this case, there were three “eligible” players to get the hand vs Scotty, so we multiply that 1 in 1,326 by 3, which makes it a 1 in 442 chance that SOME player (other than Scotty) will get the cards in the following hand.
To happen again, we multiply 1 in 442 by 1 in 442, which gives us 1 in 195,364.
So, extremely unlikely, but still quite possible.
(Please correct me if my approach or math is wrong - it’s been decades since my statistics classes!)
minor error: second card is 1/51 since youve already taken a card out of the deck from your perspective
also if you want you could inflate the probabilty by looking at scottys shoving range, but looking at his beverage, it seems that could be as high as 50% lol
@@jj344444 oops thank you! I think my math is okay but I mis-typed 1 in 51 as 1 in 52.
And good point about Scotty shoving… I guess this probably happens plenty with hands like 92o but no one knows because they don’t make it to showdown. So, there’s a good point to be made about *witnessing* three hands in a row like this.
@@truthsmiles also i dont think the hands are all in a row, the last 2 seemingly were but if you look closely, after the first hand daniel moved from bb to utg, which is not how the dealer button moves, so there was a cut there
I don’t think the times 3 makes sense. Each player is elegible yes, but after the first player fails, there are less cards in the deck and possibly one of the cards was taken by a previous player. Therefore the odds will be the 2/52 then the 1/51 for the first guy, but then 50/52 * 49/51 (odds the Kc and 8c remain in deck) * 2/50 * 1/49 (times the chance this second player gets the Kc and 8c). And for the third guy you’d do the same thing, just two more cards out. Now if you add all of these together that should make the chance of any player getting the exact hand. I’m not sure that I’m completely correct maybe I messed up huge somewhere in that math, I still feel like it might make some sense to subtract the chance someone gets K8 of c from the chance that it remains in the deck but it’s been a bit since my combinatorics class so who knows anymore, but I do think this is more in the right direction.
@@deceptivebark671 i calculated that, all of it cancels out and the two probabilities are equal
How is this a misleading title? Pretty much exactly what one would expect with that title.
It's impossible to happen naturally 3 times, almost consecutively.
At this point, it's quantum ar supernat......3:50
If these guys only knew what their futures were to be. WOW. Legendary.
What are their futures lol
yes? please someone tell us.
7:37 Daniel's reaction to getting K8 of clubs again is very funny
I once rode on a elevator with one of these players at Wynns . He loudly passed wind into the silence , and there were kids present. He never batted an eye.😮
That’s how you go all-in
@@MiscName I suppose I should not have expected an apology from a poker player. They are expected to remain emotionless. Embarrassed the heck out of my kids though, especially as all the gas was at their face level and it all blew right into their faces.
love this unique encounter there, poker history
I sure miss Mike and Vince
Yes the k-8 of clubs three times was .. wow
SO BIZZARE. what a game
Old school poker, 4 handed 9bigs not snapping with K8s
That's incredible
And now it happened to me. Once my session was over, I had to come and watch this video. Qd4d at the same table 4 times in a row.
@johnjeffreys6440
0 seconds ago
It's impossible to happen naturally 3 times, almost consecutively.
At this point, it's quantum ar supernat......3:50
@@johnjeffreys6440 lay off the zaza. or better yet, give me it all
why are they calling chips in dollar denominations? is there some kind of cash game aspect or just one of those tournaments that calls chips “dollars”?
it's probably based on the tournament prize pool so that all chips total up to the total winnings?
in the early days of poker coverage was easier that just saying chips to not confuse non players. wpt changed that the year after
It's funny how u fools say the "tittle is click bait" when the game is really like that lmao if you know the rythem of the came and consistency of the cards it can be done. Ask me I'll show you my highlight
Show us your fortnight videos....lmfaoo
Chow so Cold….
Chow so cold…..🥶
Did anyone actually calculate the odds of that happening? Is it even possible to calculate the odds of that happening?
Playing against the exact same two cards three times in a row?
Here's my maths.
We start off with three assumptions, that the hand the person called with the first round is good enough to call with every time (it'd be too hard to estimate the odds of people calling, and it's a decent assumption because the person called once). We have three opponents (just the situation in the video). And we imagine the dealing doesn't impact the probabilities for the next player (it can increase/decrease the probability so should just about average out for small player counts, and I can't be faffed to deal with all the cases).
The odds of someone getting the right cards is (2/52)*(1/51)=1/1326. There are three players, so it's (3/1326)*(3/1326)=1/195364
So about 1 in 200000. Or 0.0005%
There's a lot of layers to the calculation, and it depends on what you leave to chance. Such as - do all 3 hands need to be played against Scotty specifically or could it be anyone; will the hand that comes up 3x in a row always actually be played (like if the same unsuited 2, 7 pair came up 3 times it probably would have been folded each time) etc
what's with K8?
As much fun as these vintage clips are with the classic commentary and players, I actually really dislike this form of poker - little better than a slot machine. I suppose back then where calling with K8s wasn't a snap call there might have been more (apparent) skill to it.. but once the blinds get so big, there really is little space for individual players to actually make their mark.
I called the River 7! Weird is right
If you're playing at a table and this happens. Could it be that the cards are sticky somehow? Can you ask for a new deck?
Considering the K and 8 would have to have 4 cars between them to be dealt to the same player (3 other hands and the burn card), its not that the cards are sticky
Sometimes when I play online and go all in, when I later realize that was a dumb move….
if someone tosses the cards down all non chalantly and from a height where someone else could see them what happens
At what point can you protest a deal?
🤷♂️ but i imagine if you could, too many salty players would be protesting waayy too often 😂
i dunno how that man drinks so much! it kills me, some people have livers of steel
I mean, if I was sitting with $2.2 million in chips at some tournament I’d just get up, cash out and buy a yacht.
Unfortunately it doesn't work that way. You have to play to the felt, and take the prize money for the position you finished in.
This is the reason casinos have a different set of chips for tournament's.
They don't want drunk guys winning tournaments 😢
Scotty was tilted lol
he also miss straight by 1 card all 3 times
I got the same hand 4 times in a row I’m not joking
Tittle is related how?
Did u watch the video or pay attention bc clearly u did not
This happened to me a few years ago, a table of six players, I got a pair black jakes on x3 consecutive hands, after winning the hand for the third time, I asked out loud what’s the odds of that, then some nerdy hero smarty pants declares 226:1, I say twice maybe??, but three times, he was adamant, refused to take into calculation the chances for that to happen, it’s got to be something astronomical more . My first and only time playing there, a very toxic crowd. Mortdale Masonic club .NSW Australia. I prefer fun vibes, not a pack of unhappy grinders, happy 2024
(Edit: this math is wrong, see below correction) If you want the actual math, after all these years: There are 1326 possible combinations of starting hands. To get the same hand 3 times in a row is (1/1326) to the third power, which is roughly one in 2.33 *billion*. To put those odds in perspective, that's like asking a computer to come up with a number between 0 and 2.33 billion and you guess the exact number...
Must've been a faulty shuffle or something, right? But crazy events happen!
@@NateLevin Not quite, There's no condition for the first hand to have a sequence of three consecutive identical hole cards so its just 1 * 1/1326 * 1/1326 or 1 in 1.7 million to get the same hole cards three times in a row.
Since its just as remarkable if they were any other same color pair that would be 26/1326 * 1/1326 * 1/1326 its 1 in ~89 million.
1 in 2.33 billion is just the upper limit on the rarity of literally any combination of three sets of hole cards using this naive approach.
A7 offsuit, JQ suited, 39 offsuit 1 in 2.33 billion
AA ,AA, AA, 1 in 2.33 billion
27 offsuit, 27 offsuit, 27 offsuit, 1 in 2.33 billion
@@zym6687 Ahh, you are totally right! Though I think there’s something to the hole cards specifically being jacks, one of the hardest to play 🤣
Well these calculations take into account that deck is fully random, but odds of this are pretty high if dealer simply sucks at shuffling
wow I had no idea how freaky that was then, so my next one probably be more astronomical. 5 at the final table, we all had flushes, that’s all 13 hearts in play. Every player had pocket hears,including me. No win for me but a brush with the poker gods I guess
If anyone wondering. Odds are 1 in 7 Million
Personally I would enjoy watching poker if they showed the odds of having a winning hand not knowing what the other players are holding.
Just can't satisfy some people huh
That's isn't even possible lol.
What? It's possible. Definitely way too much work.
It's just showing the odds of winning with your hand, with the board.
The number would just always be low, because the chance any other opponent has trips exists for every spot, or quads lol
Pass what ur smoking bro
@@deathwrow9652 Would it be low? If there are 10 possible better hands but hundreds or thousands of worse possible hands, every player who didn't fold would all show as having chances in the 99s%+ of winning.
How do you calculate in probability for human psychology, of bluff rates and variable ranges? You would need extensive psychological profiles of each player to even begin.
K-8 sucks oh wait
1 in 18.65 billion chance of this happening
It's 1 in 110,141.
The first hand is an establishing round and irrelevant from an probability standpoint, any 2 cards would be fine. The odds of the first hand establishing a run is 1 in 1.
The odds of 2 specific cards (in this case K, 8 clubs) being in the hole are 2/52 * 1/51 = 1/1,326 or 0.08%. In a 4 player game, the chance of any player having that in any game is 1 - (0.9992 ^4) = 0.3% or 1 in 332.
The chance of that happening a second time (3 straight) is 0.3% ^ 2 or 0.0009% which is 1 per 110,141 trials.
Even if it needed to specifically be K,8 clubs it's only 0.3% ^ 3 which is 1 in 36,553,127 trials or 0.000027%
edit to add: it looks like you correctly surmised there are 2,652 possible hold hands. What you were missing is that there are 2 "successes" (either K clubs then 8 of clubs or 8 clubs then K clubs) and that it could be delivered to any of 4 hands, not just a specific hand or consecutive hands.
eee
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is this even mathematically possible?
Hello! I watch your program all the time. I am very sick and need your financial support. Who will be able to do as much as he can...
Loser
Rigged...it's clear now
Sick hands. Stupid clicking title
Agree, worst click bait, counter productive fer sure..
click bate how sad
what? it's literally what happened
scotty lose.
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