MIDDLE EAST CRISIS: WHY FADING THE MARKET MOVES COULD BE RISKY!
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In today’s market update, Jason Shapiro breaks down the volatility caused by the escalating situation in the Middle East, specifically Iran's missile strikes on Israel. While many traders instinctively looked to fade the market’s initial reactions, Jason explains why this time might be different and how positioning could be a major factor. From energy and bonds to the yen, Jason covers key market moves and highlights why traders who tried to fade the moves today might have gotten burned. Are you looking for smarter trades? Jason shares why the yen could offer a great risk-reward setup and what to watch for in the days ahead. Tune in for an expert take on the market and how to navigate these uncertain times.
Tags: #MiddleEastCrisis #MarketVolatility #IranIsraelConflict #ContrarianTrading #jasonshapiro #stockmarket #CrowdedMarketReport #StockMarketAnalysis #Energy #Yen #Bonds #GlobalMarkets
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I have to tell you I'm frustrated I just discovered you a month ago, but now I can't wait for your next video on a daily basis. I appreciate your no BS approach to trading and that which is the markets. Thanks for the content, Jason!
Me, too.
Jason is the best!
Assalamu alaikum to you sir, Peace be with you, Namaste
By fade today’s market in Yen, are you saying short the Yen? Thx
Short yen has the best risk/reward profile from a positioning standpoint
Thanks Jason. Interesting day. Shalom.
👍Thanks. By making sense of things, your kind updates give me peace of mind 👍
Jason the OG Shapiro💪🏻🔥
I faded it. Made money. See what tomorrow brings.
Awesome and educational video!
Been sitting on hands for almost a month. Lots of bullish charts across the board. But also weekly negative divergences and weakness still in semis. Does look like safety plays like bonds, Utilities, staples need to digest. So maybe $ will rotate back into tech leaders. Patience is my game, not interested in giving back gains from the last few years.. Good luck everyone.
Can you make a video on your risk management process? How you handle correlations, do you reduce position size if correlation between assets increase? Whats your overall risk typically at any point in time, etc? Analysis is great (dont ever stop) but seeing the nitty gritty of risk management would be awesome as that information is never really spoken about.
Thanks Jason!
So u think short term markets can do a shake out few days into the weekend? Seems like
I looked at the actual performance of Yen futures given current long positioning, it’s actually very bullish yen short term with 1 week gains of 3-5% having happened in the past. Small specs are not that long, and pre recent bull market long yen positioning just mean a bull market in yen.
shalom!
Oy gevalt!
Thanks man. Have a good day
This man is a living legend.
Another great video
Short the weakest
Long the strongest in short
so if I understood correctly - the Yen will drop more - the move up will fade and continue to drop. I am not clear on equity market and which direction crowded market believes it will go.
there is no what "will" happen. its an odds game
v practical 👍
I got lucky on oil and I'm fading the move now by going long stocks. Indeed.
Thanks for sharing it ❤
Thanks for watching!
the jobs number was good and it kinda felt stuff was going to bounce there for a moment
how about Gold? speculators sitting at 387k longs,which is only 20k below All time high longs of 407k.
Not fully set up for me. Small Specs not there yet. Large Specs are maxed out like you wrote.
שלום, שנה טובה מישראל ❤
Love the channel from Israel 🇮🇱
Does BOJ’s commentary about holding rates steady instead of hiking act as another catalyst to the short yen thesis? Or is BOJ action not really relevant
😊
NZD/USD is a big sell imo. .48 by 3Q 2025
Curious. Why is it a big sell?
@@crowdedmarketreport from a technical perspective if you zoom out on the long-term historical charts, it looks like a massive multi-decade Head and shoulders pattern for whatever that's worth, and it's not worth a ton admittedly. Then I'm looking at a potential 5th wave down from a long-term Elliott wave impulse that started in July of 2014. The .50 level(ish) offers a much greater long-term support level than .55. not that the 50 level is a magical magnet though. Also when looking at the 6 month chart on tradingview, where every candle represents 6 months of price action, every time this pair has bottomed out and started a multi-year uptrend the bottoming process has been pretty quick. January of 1985, January of 1993, July of 2000, January of 2009. This pair has been trying to find a bid at around the 55 level for 4 years now. If this pair starts to find a strong bid from here on out. It would be a very anomalous move. They could definitely still go to a higher level before It ultimately trades down, but that's not my base case.
Fundamentally speaking, I don't necessarily think the hard landing scenario is out of the realm of possibilities. US unemployment has been trending up, The Sahm Rule has been triggered. China's economy as everyone knows is not doing well and The recent bazooka that President Xi just fired isn't very imaginative and might have limited effect. Who knows what kind of idiosyncrasies are going on in New Zealand. I'm not that sophisticated of an investor to have a truly robust and quantitative edge but I'm bearish this pair.
Once it breaks belows of 2020, that's easy money down to the .50 level
Halo Namaste saar
What is the meaning of “fade” in this context?
short
Not short in this context mate, it means to take a trade against the prevailing trend. So if the market is running low like it was today, to take a long position (fade the move) hoping it will bounce back in your favour. Fade is basically what it sounds like, hoping the move will fade and run out of steam and you catch the bounce back.
Do the opposite. So fading a move up is shorting, fading a move down, is buying
I’ve been making a lot of losses trying to make profit trading crypto. I thought trading on a demo account is just like trading the real market. Can anyone help me out or at least advise me on what to do?
I will advice you should stop trading on your own if you keep losing.
If you can, then get a professional to trade for you I think that way your assets are more secure.
I’d recommend Viola Patterson , her profit is great even when there’s a dip
Hey i'm shocked you just mentioned and recommended viola patterson , i thought i was the only one trading with her
you dont need to be shocked haha because i'm also a huge beneficiary of her