agreed... and another one when you said that this could be 14% investment from these levels...so what was it from the previous levels? like 8%? lower than a good divi fund ...with all the risk?
Still a small cap company growing revenues over 50% YOY, and a huge durable moat. When are organ donors and transplants going to the wayside ? lol Buy and hold, this was just a case of Wall St expectations getting too lofty in the midst of a high volatility market.
Kidney is by far (really far) the organ many people are waiting for, and as you know, Transmedics doesn't offer yet an OCS for that. So as soon as they start to offer that, I believe they will deal with a huge demand. Then, it makes really sense for them to improve their NOP now, as they will need to be prepared for the demand when the OCS for Kidney comes out.
NOP will be their main moat as the donor procurement process is complex, so their specialized teams and fleet will provide the resources the transplant centers need to focus solely on transplantation. So I believe that their margin in service will expand over time.
Not sure exactly what to make of transplants declining, but my hunch is that trend won't continue in the future. Hopefully, it's just a short-term headwind. As far as margins go, I see that issue being resolved with fewer one-off costs like we had this quarter and scale (using fewer external planes, making better use of their existing fleet, and spreading those costs over more transplants).
Thanks for the quick upload and sorry it tanked on you. No matter how many times I've looked into this company, I still don't believe in it's model. Then they went and bought planes(huge upfront costs, operating costs and ongoing maintenance requirements). Maybe it's an opportunity for believers
I still have no idea why they would buy planes, let alone rent a hub for those. Any medical device manufacturer sells their device to a hospital and that’s it. Hill-Rom didn’t build a pillow factory to ensure patients lying in their beds feel most comfy. Do they actually operate as organ carriers along with device manufacturers? That’s super stupid imo
Kind of dropped the ball on this one. Some analysts warned about this quarter in particular because of the pilot situation and margins, but we'll see how it develops.
Thank you for the great analysis. it seems like this company has attracted people with high expectations and the company fulfilled and fed those high expectations until she could not. The fact that a small change in company earnings, amplified with those high expectations seems to prove my point.
@@maltlickytexasInternational opportunities included? Looking at the numbers there seems to be room to double and triple the # of transplants they enable in the next years?
Sorry for being so blunt but that TAM/SAM analysis is beyond useless. How do you come up with the bear/bull variance? How do you come up with the probabilities of each scenario occurring? Why is the base case 50% and not 49% or 60% or any other number between 0 and 100? Because you have a feeling that the most is wide? So you basically guess and try to put numbers on it? I had the feeling that after the tech crash in 22, you learned a lot more about valuation and how to implement it in your analysis. Now this approach feels like you’re going back to old times where you just want to rationalise your investments instead of critically assessing them.
Fair feedback. But when you have a company that's as young as this, it's one of the tools at one's disposal. The important thing isn't so much if you agree with the TAM SAM analysis, it's if you understand and feel comfortable with the input YOU choose to include
@ lol your last sentence sums it up, choose a number that you feel well with. Are you serious right now? That’s not investing or valuing a company! Stop spreading pseudo valuation BS, some viewers might take that seriously. Just face the fact that you can’t know the future and success of a stock depends much more on execution than on some made up scenarios that may or may not happen.
@@thelifeofpablo6626Nobody knows the future, hence why we construct scenarios and weigh their probabilities based on the sum of available information. Apart from your comment’s tonality being unnecessarily rude I don’t see how you can say Brian says that he knows the future
@@eralec „weigh probabilities based on the sum of available information” - so where’s that available information that makes Brian think the base case has X% probability? Why not Y%, or Z%? Insert any number you want, it has the same informativeness and that is zero. Because that is exactly what my comment was about, it’s based on a feeling instead of a useful, sensible approach to valuation but it is presented in an allegedly sophisticated style, which it is not. If I sound rude, sorry for that but it annoys the hell out of me as it simply dishonest and especially younger investors don’t learn anything from it but rather start to believe this stuff, leading to financial losses in the worst case.
Dave Meier taught us if you have to take 15 minutes to justify a company when it gets in trouble, you shouldn't have been in it in the first place. ;) Stories can be good to bet on, but we can't predict the future if the company doesn't execute. The planes are a boat anchor. They had to repair the planes when they bought them? If not repairs, maintenance of a plane goes on forever, it is not a one time expense.
Planes probably needed to be modified to carry fragile live human tissue. Plus refurbishing a plane is waaay cheaper than a new plane outright. Buy enough you squeeze the vendor and you squeeze the refurbisher through volume. Also, great thought would be placed on securing, preservation, loading and unloading, both personal and cargo. It would be a time critical process. The fresher the better.
I look at Blade trying to do Air taxi + also getting into organ transportation as well. I think TMDX moat might be slipping away. It isn’t a very creative business. Very easy to break whatever moat there is. Upfront cost and maintenance of planes will continue to be a killer.
I've just begun learning about value investing, and I've found that many good stocks are undervalued despite their intrinsic value. If you had $200,000 to create a strong investment portfolio, which stocks would you choose for better returns?
I think a good investment portfolio should have three basic things: ETFs for diversification, dividend stocks for cash flow, and leading tech stocks. With your budget, it's a good idea to talk to a fiduciary financial advisor for expert advice.
I agree with you. As an early investor in NVDA, AVGO, ANSS, and LRCX, my financial advisor's advice was incredibly helpful. Over the past 7 years, she has helped me find stocks that did 10x multiple times. With her help, I've grown my portfolio to over a million dollars.
I'm cautious about giving specific recommendations since this is an online forum and everyone situation is unique, but I've worked with Melissa Elise Robinson for years and highly recommend her. Look her up to see if she meets your criteria.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
It's an organ transplant that can save lives and literally prolong lives for decades People will make the money for it lol. But when/if overseas expansion happens it will be interesting. Plenty of millionaires and billionaires across the pond too
@@exursist How many millionaires and billionaires who need organ transplantation? do you know? There are less than 20,000 heart, liver and lung transplantation worldwide yearly. out of 20,000 I assume there are less than 2,000 millionaire and billionaire transplantation a year.
Brian - Q over Q "product revenue" is falling for all case types, and particularly hard in "other countries" segment (~50%). Just curious about your commentary that "plane revenue" is included in the product revenue segment - where did you get that information and is there any more color on plane revenue (in general) or the Q over Q changes?
Pretty disappointed to find out TransMedic isn’t the most efficient method of getting an organ to where it’s needed! Any news on when they’ll be offering kidneys? And will that be a big deal?
In kidney donor , its not emergency situation like in heart lung liver. You can harvest organ from healthy donor. In my opinion not going to benefit much for TMDX
Sorry but i don´t understand the values in the columns C and E, the bear and bull cases, could you explain how to obtain the TAM/SAM values in those cases?? Thank you in advance
Lesson learned. Sometimes, it is ok to take some profit. This stock got way ahead of itself. Many warned about it. Lost opportunity to take easy money. You don't have to go down with the ship every single time!
I was told this week to not be an organ donor because there is now a larger financial incentive for them to harvest organs prematurely which makes sense. More people die in the summer months because that's when there are more cars/accidents on the roads. Something just doesn't feel right about investing in this company, although I did at one time and planned to get back in not so sure now. Basically, yes the infrastructure can greatly improve but the other side of the equation is they need more supply to grow as well, which in this case supply = dead bodies of healthy people. Probably better uses for my cash than that.
Not even sure why this was on your list? It has clearly been in a Stage 3 range for months and had rolled over into a likely Stage 4 downturn a few weeks ago.
@@bombmanNL actually no. Never followed the stock, don’t like the biz. I have most of Brian’s other stocks like CRWD, AMZN, MELI, & SE. But it’s not cool to stomp when somebody is down. Brian has solid reasoning behind his investments.
It’s my fault this is crashing. I opened a small position in August.
🤣🤣We must be related.
Not cool man 😂
😂
I am on the floor - hahahahaha!
Time to average down
Brian, you dropped the ball on this one you said it was cheap at 143 and now it’s 40% lower.
agreed... and another one when you said that this could be 14% investment from these levels...so what was it from the previous levels? like 8%? lower than a good divi fund ...with all the risk?
Yup, you're right. I was not expecting the slowdown, and got used to management sand-bagging FY guidance.
As soon as I heard this company was in the plane business….it was off my christmas card list forever.
I did the same w/ Amazon when they started selling more than just books. I think we both dodged a bullet.
@@johnfetzer85😂
They are not competing with any sheikhs sons toyroline though. Completely different market.
wow - thanks for the quick upload
Still a small cap company growing revenues over 50% YOY, and a huge durable moat. When are organ donors and transplants going to the wayside ? lol Buy and hold, this was just a case of Wall St expectations getting too lofty in the midst of a high volatility market.
it is not WS expectation toolofty. It is $TMDX got pumped too much to a level way beyond its current valuation.
@@leopard5810 There is that factor yet for a profitable company to be growing that fast the valuation isn’t egregious.
@@themusic6808let’s see how that growth continues if they have to operate their own planes
Kidney is by far (really far) the organ many people are waiting for, and as you know, Transmedics doesn't offer yet an OCS for that. So as soon as they start to offer that, I believe they will deal with a huge demand. Then, it makes really sense for them to improve their NOP now, as they will need to be prepared for the demand when the OCS for Kidney comes out.
when these stocks are discovered by the mass, it is time to sell.. same thing happened to CELH.
but celh doesn't have moat and enough shares from market 😢
NOP will be their main moat as the donor procurement process is complex, so their specialized teams and fleet will provide the resources the transplant centers need to focus solely on transplantation. So I believe that their margin in service will expand over time.
this format is great! please keep it!
It seems really risky for so little upside. And the dilution is a red flag for me.
Very interesting and exotic business case. Please keep backing it.
What do you think about Transmedic price now?
Not sure exactly what to make of transplants declining, but my hunch is that trend won't continue in the future. Hopefully, it's just a short-term headwind. As far as margins go, I see that issue being resolved with fewer one-off costs like we had this quarter and scale (using fewer external planes, making better use of their existing fleet, and spreading those costs over more transplants).
Thanks for the quick upload and sorry it tanked on you. No matter how many times I've looked into this company, I still don't believe in it's model. Then they went and bought planes(huge upfront costs, operating costs and ongoing maintenance requirements). Maybe it's an opportunity for believers
when they bought planes, i was like wtf
😅would be interesting to see if the senior execs are misusing the planes for their own personal reasons
I still have no idea why they would buy planes, let alone rent a hub for those. Any medical device manufacturer sells their device to a hospital and that’s it. Hill-Rom didn’t build a pillow factory to ensure patients lying in their beds feel most comfy.
Do they actually operate as organ carriers along with device manufacturers? That’s super stupid imo
Kind of dropped the ball on this one. Some analysts warned about this quarter in particular because of the pilot situation and margins, but we'll see how it develops.
Thank you for the great analysis. it seems like this company has attracted people with high expectations and the company fulfilled and fed those high expectations until she could not. The fact that a small change in company earnings, amplified with those high expectations seems to prove my point.
I’m not surprised. As I physician, I knew this business is not scalable.
Can you elaborate please? There is still a lot of market opportunity
@ TAM is relatively small.
@@maltlickytexas International opportunities?
@@maltlickytexasInternational opportunities included? Looking at the numbers there seems to be room to double and triple the # of transplants they enable in the next years?
Sorry for being so blunt but that TAM/SAM analysis is beyond useless. How do you come up with the bear/bull variance? How do you come up with the probabilities of each scenario occurring? Why is the base case 50% and not 49% or 60% or any other number between 0 and 100? Because you have a feeling that the most is wide? So you basically guess and try to put numbers on it?
I had the feeling that after the tech crash in 22, you learned a lot more about valuation and how to implement it in your analysis. Now this approach feels like you’re going back to old times where you just want to rationalise your investments instead of critically assessing them.
Fair feedback. But when you have a company that's as young as this, it's one of the tools at one's disposal. The important thing isn't so much if you agree with the TAM SAM analysis, it's if you understand and feel comfortable with the input YOU choose to include
@ lol your last sentence sums it up, choose a number that you feel well with. Are you serious right now? That’s not investing or valuing a company! Stop spreading pseudo valuation BS, some viewers might take that seriously. Just face the fact that you can’t know the future and success of a stock depends much more on execution than on some made up scenarios that may or may not happen.
@@thelifeofpablo6626 Buddy every prediction for a stock is made up and may or may not happen.
@@thelifeofpablo6626Nobody knows the future, hence why we construct scenarios and weigh their probabilities based on the sum of available information. Apart from your comment’s tonality being unnecessarily rude I don’t see how you can say Brian says that he knows the future
@@eralec „weigh probabilities based on the sum of available information” - so where’s that available information that makes Brian think the base case has X% probability? Why not Y%, or Z%? Insert any number you want, it has the same informativeness and that is zero. Because that is exactly what my comment was about, it’s based on a feeling instead of a useful, sensible approach to valuation but it is presented in an allegedly sophisticated style, which it is not. If I sound rude, sorry for that but it annoys the hell out of me as it simply dishonest and especially younger investors don’t learn anything from it but rather start to believe this stuff, leading to financial losses in the worst case.
If I remember correctly this is your largest position? What are your plans now?
Dave Meier taught us if you have to take 15 minutes to justify a company when it gets in trouble, you shouldn't have been in it in the first place. ;) Stories can be good to bet on, but we can't predict the future if the company doesn't execute. The planes are a boat anchor. They had to repair the planes when they bought them? If not repairs, maintenance of a plane goes on forever, it is not a one time expense.
Planes probably needed to be modified to carry fragile live human tissue. Plus refurbishing a plane is waaay cheaper than a new plane outright. Buy enough you squeeze the vendor and you squeeze the refurbisher through volume. Also, great thought would be placed on securing, preservation, loading and unloading, both personal and cargo. It would be a time critical process. The fresher the better.
I look at Blade trying to do Air taxi + also getting into organ transportation as well. I think TMDX moat might be slipping away. It isn’t a very creative business. Very easy to break whatever moat there is. Upfront cost and maintenance of planes will continue to be a killer.
Thanks! Would love to get a copy of the TAM spreadsheet!
The share price will be rocky. Too many unknowns for most people, who'll likely sell.
best video on this sdtock, thanks
Sell it with eyes closed
They will keep diluting share holders
I've just begun learning about value investing, and I've found that many good stocks are undervalued despite their intrinsic value. If you had $200,000 to create a strong investment portfolio, which stocks would you choose for better returns?
I think a good investment portfolio should have three basic things: ETFs for diversification, dividend stocks for cash flow, and leading tech stocks. With your budget, it's a good idea to talk to a fiduciary financial advisor for expert advice.
I agree with you. As an early investor in NVDA, AVGO, ANSS, and LRCX, my financial advisor's advice was incredibly helpful. Over the past 7 years, she has helped me find stocks that did 10x multiple times. With her help, I've grown my portfolio to over a million dollars.
I'm glad I found this conversation. I have cash to invest but am worried about picking the wrong stocks. Can you refer me to your financial advisor?
I'm cautious about giving specific recommendations since this is an online forum and everyone situation is unique, but I've worked with Melissa Elise Robinson for years and highly recommend her. Look her up to see if she meets your criteria.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
The problem with TMDX is it cost too much. not everyone can afford it.
You have insurance in the US don't you?
It's an organ transplant that can save lives and literally prolong lives for decades
People will make the money for it lol.
But when/if overseas expansion happens it will be interesting. Plenty of millionaires and billionaires across the pond too
@@exursist cold fusion is not as TMDX but cost 10 times lesser. besides it doesn't matter if people can't afford it they can't afford it.
@@KevJDunn insurance doesn't have to cover TMDX.
@@exursist How many millionaires and billionaires who need organ transplantation? do you know? There are less than 20,000 heart, liver and lung transplantation worldwide yearly. out of 20,000 I assume there are less than 2,000 millionaire and billionaire transplantation a year.
so glad i got out of TMDX before this 🍀
i watched again and noticed you keep mixing up QoQ and YoY, when you speak but i think even in your slides
TMDX is so bad it's starting to look good. 🤔 Maybe sell puts at the $70 strike???
I thought it was your cheapest stock
there is not enough donator
Brian - Q over Q "product revenue" is falling for all case types, and particularly hard in "other countries" segment (~50%). Just curious about your commentary that "plane revenue" is included in the product revenue segment - where did you get that information and is there any more color on plane revenue (in general) or the Q over Q changes?
Pretty disappointed to find out TransMedic isn’t the most efficient method of getting an organ to where it’s needed!
Any news on when they’ll be offering kidneys? And will that be a big deal?
In kidney donor , its not emergency situation like in heart lung liver. You can harvest organ from healthy donor. In my opinion not going to benefit much for TMDX
@@natnaicharoonroch38 Great explanation.Thank you.
Sorry but i don´t understand the values in the columns C and E, the bear and bull cases, could you explain how to obtain the TAM/SAM values in those cases?? Thank you in advance
Hello Brian, could you explain me how to calculate that value? I'm really curious about it
Lesson learned. Sometimes, it is ok to take some profit. This stock got way ahead of itself. Many warned about it. Lost opportunity to take easy money. You don't have to go down with the ship every single time!
if i had spare cash i would buy the dip
its a dog with fleas
He was the worst first lady ever.
This company has too many moving organs, for this reason, I am out.
I was told this week to not be an organ donor because there is now a larger financial incentive for them to harvest organs prematurely which makes sense. More people die in the summer months because that's when there are more cars/accidents on the roads. Something just doesn't feel right about investing in this company, although I did at one time and planned to get back in not so sure now. Basically, yes the infrastructure can greatly improve but the other side of the equation is they need more supply to grow as well, which in this case supply = dead bodies of healthy people. Probably better uses for my cash than that.
Interesting point
Not even sure why this was on your list? It has clearly been in a Stage 3 range for months and had rolled over into a likely Stage 4 downturn a few weeks ago.
Brian dropped the ball on this one. He said it was cheap at 143 and now it’s 40% lower.
You should have taken profits! Typical case of stock bias
The channel is called Long Term Mindset, not Brian’s Get RichTrades. Anyone ever say you’re annoying AF?
@@loganlasvegas haha let me guess, you are in the same boat. Good luck!
@@bombmanNL actually no. Never followed the stock, don’t like the biz. I have most of Brian’s other stocks like CRWD, AMZN, MELI, & SE. But it’s not cool to stomp when somebody is down. Brian has solid reasoning behind his investments.
I don't like the business. It seems goulish.
No it’s not. It’s a perfectly normal medical procedure.