An Apology via Film Study
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 ก.ค. 2024
- I tried to guess the USWNT Olympic roster after the June friendly series against South Korea and got a few picks wrong. I watched every Gotham FC and Washington Spirit game since and realized there was tons of film to support the picks I got wrong, and some footage on alternates that was too good to share. Film on Emily Sonnett, Crystal Dunn, Lynn Williams, Hal Hershfelt, and Croix Bethune.
- กีฬา
![[UNCUT] ลูกหมี-ลิลลี่ เหงียน เปิดใจฟาด ปู มัณฑนา I คนดังนั่งเคลียร์ I 15 ก.ค.67](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/FKQ60Y7bJ6s/mqdefault.jpg)
Do not take the L on getting predictions wrong. Lots of strong takes on the USWNT roster out there, you are at least putting the film out there and showing how you see the data. Of course, if we gave you video of all of the training camp practices, and all of the GPS / tracking data (and analytics from them), a lot of these tweener calls might have gone the other way. Appreciate the work you are doing - helping me see what the coaches see.
Thank you, appreciate the reminder on why I back up my takes, it’s way more about the methodology and thinking through the film. I’d still love to see some of that camp data though!
All I know, is that I'm grateful for more film study! Cheers!
And I'm grateful you're here!
Omg I’m honored to have my comment featured haha 😆 can’t wait for the Olympics to finally start and see what content you make!!
I was so stoked to be able to put the comments in! Looking forward to it for sure
Picture facing Williams AND Hershfelt AND Bethune in training. Hella workout!
exactly.
Going to make games feel like a breeze!
Yes! I think that was one of the keys to picking the alts.
The pundit's paradox ... you have to make a call with limited data. Coach Hayes is also making a call with limited data. It is life.
You made a viable prediction and backed it up. You had praise and critique for every player. No shame.
Thanks, I’m going to have to start getting more comfortable with being wrong!
@@BusyWatchingWomensSoccer When you figure out how to not dwell on missteps, I'll also subscribe to the channel where you teach it to others. 😃
I love your enthusiasm for the game 🙂
I think we're going to see more of the alternates in the game than one might expect. The team that has been chosen does not have a "brain" nor do I see a cohesiveness in the players needed at this level... IMHO. Therefore, the coach is going to second guess all choices during the tournament...
Haha thank you, I'm so happy to get to share that enthusiasm. But I'm too superstitious to really think through activating alternates! I will say this, my fingers are very firmly crossed. There's a lot of smart players on the team but that collective "brain" takes a while develop, you have to be able to think through someone else's 1st and 2nd decision and that takes a while. There's definitely a risk that Hayes makes unnecessary changes while some players are still getting there, such a balancing act.
@@BusyWatchingWomensSoccer Being "smart" is one thing, even so most of these "smart" players lack instinct and creative improvisation. Even so, the "brain" requires much more than soccer "smartness". For example, Messi Suárez Neymar could be considered a brain. They each have soccer smartness and can read each other better than the right and left side of the brain 🙂
i want to see Gotham v Washington in the playoffs so badly. their first matchup Gotham was decimated with injuries and the second matchup Gotham was playing their 3rd match in 7 days after travel in 90+ degree weather while Washington was rested all that week waiting to play that one game - not to mention that insane double yellow Ryan received after thinking she had been told she could re-join the match which i've never seen at any level before in my life.
when it's all said and done, they might be the two teams best positioned to meet in the final this year as i personally rate both WSH and Gothams backlines & help defense higher than i do Orlando (barely) or KCC's (by a mile).
I think starting their schedules with the Challenge Cup game really hurt both Gotham and the Wave, it's frustrating to seem them punished for success. Would so badly have loved to see the second match play out with rested players and no red card. A 4th official who's never centered a senior match shouldn't be allowed to determine the outcome because they're personally offended. That ref hasn't been given any further NWSL assignments since so the ref organization knows she messed up.
Spirit is my pick to win the championship, they just seem like they have the magic and I can see them picking apart Orlando in the final. I'm with you on Gotham's back line and I also really like what they've been doing with Maitane at defensive mid, they could be a real contender. I rate them much higher than KCC overall, I'd pretty comfortably wager Gotham goes further.
LOL -- I'm glad you pointed out all the mistakes made by that other person, someone named Bridie. I won't be watching her analysis any more. I'll be watching yours instead!
Thank you, you get it, they let anyone on the internet these days!
Really great breakdown. Thanks for sharing. Btw can you send to Juan Carlos Amaros at Gotham so he can find more optimal ways to use Sonnett and Dunn?? Thanks. Lol
Thanks for the kind words. I have a theory JCA is just copying the things he sees Hayes do that he likes so he'll get right on that after the Olympics!
@@BusyWatchingWomensSoccer maybe this is too much of a conspiracy but i do wonder if gotham (the club) told amoros to do things such as play dunn as winger to optimize the chances of all their uswnt bubble players getting on the olympics roster. they've been building their "brand" around having seven uswnt players and nwsl teams do love the commercial side of things...
I guess the question right now is how is Coffey's injury healing up. Looks like everyone else is ready to roll. Go USWNT!
Luckily we have this Wave game to see! Go USWNT indeed, getting more excited by the day.
Good video, funny. I wonder if Emily Sonnett watches your videos. Hello Ms. Sonnett!
Thank you, I had fun mixing it up a little this time.
Those were sound predictions at the end of the day.
I have one little question - Will there be USWNT game reviews at the Olympics? Or at least player-focused reviews?
The Olympics is a double-edged sword. The games are on tv so I can cover them faster, I'm going to do a game review for each US game. The downside is the broadcaster will probably be strict and prevent most of the footage from making it to TH-cam. So my current plan is to upload simultaneously to TH-cam and Patreon knowing the TH-cam video will likely cut removed or cut down to something nonsensical.
8:53 is not a controlled touch she just throws her body at it and hopes it doesnt overcook
So true, no attempt to head or chest down it just hits her
when i saw the roster, i was very happy that my predicted 18 were all correct--i was so confident in it that it would've been embarrassing otherwise. too bad my alternate predictions were horrifically wrong 😅
i think my comment on your prediction video is even worse than simply getting two of the 18 wrong:
"plus, all three of them had lynn williams as an alternate. WHAT? sorry, why do people whose entire careers revolve around the uswnt think that the alternate forward is going to be someone who wasn't called up to the last two camps and has had consistent injury problems this year???"
...oops.
in my defense, unlike the main roster, i think the alternate choices factor in far more behind-the-scenes details. i.e., apparently the federation thinks lynn williams will be fit and stay fit in order to be that needed training player. same with some of the others--i feel like lily and alex as alternates was probably discussed at the very least, but both of them could have very easily said no!
in my not-defense though, i think the way i went about conceptualizing alternates was wrong.
first, i didn't focus enough on the fact that alternates are not just there to fill in if needed and most likely will never do that anyways. instead, they're mostly training players and squad players and it's very unrewarding, hard, and quite mature work they have to do. that's not really the role for a 16-year-old. croix and hal, on the other hand, may be uncapped--but they're both adults. same with me picking alex. i spent three sentences on that video repeating that it's hard to see alex morgan as an alternate before justifying the choice, when i should've just ended after the first part! that's clearly not her role on the team. and frankly, to now steal an idea from the most recent full time with meg linehan (whose predictions i was so confused by lmao) episode, if you leave alex morgan off, you just gotta leave her off! has to be a clean break instead of leaving her hanging around. i think the podcast more said that if you make lindsey captain, you just have to let her be captain instead of leaving a pseudo-co-captain hanging around in alex, but i see it kinda the same way.
second, i partly missed out on the concept of the alternates as a space to build for the future. though i did have lily, she does have one cap, while i didn't even consider that an uncapped player had a chance at being named an alternate! i focused more on having a replacement for every position than developing future talent with the team, in which case it makes sense that two of the spots are going to future players and none for defenders. just looking at the 18, there's so many options for the different defensive positions that it makes sense to not need a defensive alternate, especially because one of the forward spots is being taken by someone that's realistically there BECAUSE she can play defense.
so apologies to lynn, alex, lily, and our nwsl wonder rookies (i dearly hope that the olympics just says "fuck it" and makes the alternates part of the team like last time so we get to see croix play...) for my lack of understanding on the alternates. and further apologies to meg, steph, and jeff for my disbelief around a prediction that was entirely true, even if some of your other roster predictions were, well...still quite head-scratching.
ok this may be now getting a little TOO meta but i find it funny how your response to incorrect roster predictions was to do film study on the players who made the roster that you had not predicted to make the roster in order to find out why they did, while mine was to think about how rosters are put together in order to figure out why i was wrong--two very different ways of trying to understand why we were wrong, lol! i do love watching these film studies especially due to the fact that it's not something i can do myself, though. seeing all the little details i'd never catch yet you do is awesome--like the head turn from hal resulting in her losing jaedyn and jaedyn scoring. never in my life would i have realized that, but it's such a fun thing to see. so thank you!
now we know the roster, i'm VERY interested in how the roster will actually be used. while i think most of the starting xi is locked in, i do wonder: most people have emily fox as the clear starter for RB. however, given krueger has been playing while fox hasn't, and has also been in incredible form in my opinion, do you think she could break into the starting xi? since you've been watching a lot of spirit for this video, curious if you have an opinion on that. and this isn't a question but i'm also curious on how crystal dunn will be used. while i did THINK she would make the roster, i don't think her nwsl performances since have been exactly convincing either, and i really just don't think she's a...not sure how to say this better, but truthfully, she's not a world-class winger. yes, she provides something different, but against the best competition in the world, are we really going to be subbing in crystal dunn when we really need a goal? will she even be getting okay minutes as forward or is she just there because she CAN be both forward and defender? i'm very interested to see.
Appreciate the thoughts, good stuff! It's funny because I was right there with you on Lynn too, I just felt like an impossibility without her playing much this year. As an alternate she has sort of the dream resume though! Size and speed, high work rate, major tournament experience, and a great attitude. All the alternates threw me a little when I first saw them but to your point, I hadn't really thought through much of a strategy beyond replacing someone injured and trying to recruit Yohannes. The defense especially is where I was getting hung up too, but the roster is built for defensive rotation so they're set if the worst happens. I'm stoked Hal and Croix are going, having all that travel, media, training, etc experience for the WWC is going to make a world of difference in how quickly they get comfortable.
What bothered me more than being wrong was knowing that with Sonnett especially I didn't spend enough time going through the film and really assessing last time. Between the two of us we've got the 101 class in Olympic Rostering completed now, hooray! It'll all be thrown out the window come WWC time with different logic :)
I'm struggling thinking through how the roster gets used. It's potentially six games over around a two week timespan so Hayes will have to rest players, but the team is now a mix of players from different leagues and the same starting 11 is important to help them get the loose pieces integrated. I really don't know if we see the same starting 11 for all the group games or not. Fox is the perfect way to think about this though, she's out of season and isn't currently teammates with anyone on the roster. I struggle to think of the last time she had a truly bad game, but I also struggle to pick out the last game where she was one of the 2-3 key players driving the game. I also think Hayes is trying to simplify life by pulling from a few pools of clubs. If you exclude GKs, Chicago is the only team sending 1 player (Wave 2, Thorns 2, Gotham 5+1, Spirit 2+2). So maybe Hayes thinks she'll have better results with a starting 11 made up of club teammates and Krueger looks very in form right now. Distribution wise she's 100% starter material but if Nighswonger is going to be on the field to do that it could be a factor against starring Krueger too. Could go any direction! If Hayes truly has been told this tournament is about preparing for the WWC I feel like she'll go with Fox, I think she has higher conviction there.
Dunn, I can't even go there because I'm going to spiral. I thought I figured it out with the film but also you can't just stand in one spot on the pitch! Maybe it's literally just the flexibility for an unplanned sub at the 37th minute for a sprained ankle.
@@BusyWatchingWomensSoccer yeah, the nighswonger point is definitely a good one, given krueger's excelled at doing just what jenna does--getting up the pitch (though in a different way). already dangerous to have one lucy bronze, even riskier to have two! lol
i've never thought about the picking-teammates thing...very interesting!
Would San Diego offer Adrián González the head coaching job and if so would Adrián González accept it? Michele Kang might make González the highest paid assistant in the NWSL. One would think interim Coach González is under contract for at least the rest of the season, right? Sorry, this is not the subject, but I was watching the Spirit v. Gotham game as you had suggested.
No worries, I love questions and you always have such interesting thoughts. Adrián González certainly looks like a great option. I don't know much about his background pre-NWSL and I do know there were a lot of other influences behind the scenes (Giráldez, Krikorian), but I still think González looked smart, passionate, and respected. I'd love to see it but I think Kang might be the Jerry Jones of the NWSL. A big name driving improvements in the league and willing to spend big money on her team. I don't think she'll mind overpaying one bit.
Excellent analysis, as usual. I hope you don't get done for copyright with all these clips.
Me too, very fortunate this is working for now but trying to think through how to cover the Olympics.
@@BusyWatchingWomensSoccer I will follow you to Patreon or wherever if necessary. Good luck!
What are your thoughts on Flemings performance for Portland?
Loved what I saw last night. Her off-ball movement was ridiculous, such drive to make things happen and be in the right spot. Did all the basic and boring midfield jobs very well too. If it wasn't Sheridan in net I think the Thorns would've had another goal or two.
good stuff as usual. we're all throwing darts at a dart board out here on most things in life. enjoyed the breakdowns. wonder what your thoughts are on Coffey. people seem to love her game. im on the fence. im wondering why, i cant put my finger on the reason, she just doesnt seem to flash to me with the eye test. im probably wrong, hope im wrong honestly. respect your opinion. good vibes.
Appreciate the good vibes! I felt exactly the same about Coffey previously but I started buying in last year. I think it’s that she’s not the most well rounded player but crushes it at what she does well. The ball winning is great but I love her shooting. Very very technical and potentially a difference maker if you can get the team passing back and forth in the attacking third. She won’t be able to do her thing in every game but when she can it’s great!
@@BusyWatchingWomensSoccer appreciate the reply with your thoughts. 😀.
Still agree with you about Dunn and Williams
I’ll say this, I was much more surprised about the Williams pick
@@BusyWatchingWomensSoccer I've heard it suggested that it's about practice, that she's such a great pressing forward that it helps prepare the team. Don't know if that's true.
@@cr26404I can definitely see that, and then Bethune is the alternate taken for if you need to replace a forward
@@BusyWatchingWomensSoccer I agree, Croix Bethune for a forward. >>> Heaven forbid, if you have to replace Sam Coffey do you call on Hal Hershfelt (sorry for changing the subject)?
@@erobinsonii I think they'd definitely activate Hershfelt but it might be a bit of a baptism of fire if she has her start after the group stage. I imagine Sonnett would start in that situation with Hershfelt as a sub.