It's an incredibly simple, common sense question, but somehow people seem to get the answer wrong all the time. How could the most heavily sanctioned economy in the world possibly be doing *better* than it ever has, while simultaneously fighting an incredibly expensive and all-consuming war that's eating up a huge percentage of what the economy still manages to produce?
Why wouldn't the most heavily sanctioned economy in the world punish those who are by your own words trying to starve the Russian population? The Russians obviously think they're in world war 3 already, so assuming they'd capitulate instead of escalate is terribly naive.
When your inflation is 8% a month and some mortgage loans are now around 35% you get the sense those unseal, muddy roads and outdoor toilets are going to stay like this for another century. Fight imperialism.
Some time ago I joined a startup that raised a massive amount of money. If you had come inside shortly after, you would have seen the most dynamic thriving company ever. Artists, programmers, famous people visiting. It was a boom time! Except, they couldn't get the product to sell and so it became a ghost town after the money was gone.
This is a pattern among some recent startups, they get a bunch of investor funding, move into glitzy offices, have celebrities come by and live high on the hog while the money is flowing. Then the company goes under due to lack of sales, or in many cases a completely unviable business model that they managed to convince people was sustainable. Often the founders walk away with a nice tidy sum and then have to be chased by lawsuits to try and reclaim any money, which could often be more expensive than just forgetting about the lost money. If investors decide not to go after them with lawsuits, they face no repercussions and are more emboldened to repeat the cycle.
The problem with wartime economies are everything is fine until they suddenly aren't and it gets real bad real quickly. Wartime economies are the snake that eats its self.
Exactly .... You use assets to make more assets which you then destroy which eventually destroys all your assets. That doesn't even account for the Brain Drain from people leaving the country and then destruction of a significant portion of your workforce meaning there aren't enough young people working to support the welfare of the retirees. This will stymie their economy for the better part of a generation.
War is very expensive. Countries don't pay only by money but by men, workforce, demographic changes, mental wellness, psychological aftermaths and a lot of grieving people.
@@1LERS1 say thanks to EU and US sanctions. Crimea population are the most loyal Russians there are thanks to the West pushing them down for their vote on referendum to be part of their Homeland. Also, thanks to Zelensky attacking Kursk and Putin not diverting troops from Donbass- the absolute loyalty of Eastern Ukrainians to Russia is also solidified.
Konstantin at Inside Russia does a pretty good job at breaking down the state of the Russian economy on a more granular level. He’s got an economics/engineering background and still has contacts and family living in Russia so his information tends to be pretty good.
Plus he's a great human being! Been following him since the very first day of the invasion! He doesn't let us forget there are still people like him in ruZZia. There is hope!
So much opinion about things that could fork in so many different directions at so many points. As the famous expression goes: "It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future".
Hello Paul, it's wonderful to listen to you. Not only is your English wonderful for me to understand in German, I can also follow your thoughts very well. I don't believe that there is a plan from the West, or only actors who would be able to react quickly to certain situations. This whole lousy game is on the bones of the normal Russians and the Ukrainians. It really is a perfidious ‘game’ that some criminals are playing right now. No honour anywhere.
Above all it saddens me the human suffering on all sides. How hard it must be for mothers and fathers to let there children go and fight a pointless war. How could Putin emotionlessly let all their men be killed for nothing. I wouldn’t let me sons waste their lives for nothing.
I'm sure Ukrainian people don't believe it's pointless to defend their country and Russia doesn't believe it's pointless to protect ethnic Russians from being murdered by Ukrainian militias. Regardless war should not be necessary for humans with the intellectual power we have. How will it end?
You ask why is Putin letting his men be killed. Because Putin doesn't care about his people. He only cares about himself and those who keep him in power, his oligarchs!
Чудес не бывает, родной. Пушной зверёк неотвратим. Он придёт не завтра и не через месяц, но неизбежно придёт. Я думаю где-то между 25 и 30 годами он придёт. А когда закончится и чем? - закончится не быстро (десять-двадцать лет минимум), чем - непредсказуемо. Но пока экономика ещё может продержаться на печатании денег. Если уволят Набиулину - пушной придёт быстрее.
I broadly agree with your analysis of the current state of the Russian economy and its military strength; however, dictators like Putin can drag out a war and impose terrible levels of suffering on its people before the end finally does come. I’m afraid that when this war is over that both Ukraine and Russia will be utterly ruined.
Paul: I very much enjoy your dissertations regarding virtually everything (grin) You are well enunciated, & you maintain an even speech level, & articulate well. Best of all, your viewers are not being fed misinformation. Well done Sir. Cheers!...from the windswept Prairies of Alberta, Canada
Russia had hyperinflation in the 90s. And had war after that. And Russian GDP before Putin came to power was smaller in 2 or 3 times. And it's still waged war. But you can sit here all day and talk how 3% GDP drop even smaller than drop during 2008 GFC and small by Russian history inflation is gonna crash Russia and sign of Russia going bust.
@mddell24 never. It all goes according to plan. They wanted hyperinflation to change rubles to CBDC, digital ruble. It's being tested already, then when rubble will get out of hand they will roll out it for everybody and force to accept it. There are little technical details that they need to sort out before full roll out, but inflation is not that bad by Russian standards. So it can wait. Also some people say Russia can freeze Russian bank accounts, expropriate gold from citizens. And of course there is old plan of expropriating real estate from ordinary Russian citizens. Law is already discussed. As Claus Schwab said you will own nothing and you will be happy. Some Russians already commented that it will be good for Russians
I’m a citizen of ex soviet republic, and it’s heartbreaking to watch how Russian propaganda works well in America. We, who were living under Russian propaganda for decades, are more tolerant to it, and it is very obvious to us
@@elbekmusinov2968why type of propaganda do you speak of? What message is Russia trying to convince Americans of? That Russia WILL nuke them and it’s not a bluff?
People that do not have a good understanding of economics were fast to dismiss our sanctions but they do work and you are seeing it happen now. All the best Paul.
I have a good understanding of economics and worked in banking for the past 30 years. Please tell me what controls inflation in a closed economy? Then tell me how closed the Russian economy actually is and what percentage of the world still trades with Russia (or at least has no sanctions). Also tell me if the countries with sanctions are still buying anyway (like Europe). The situation is complex, but American Sanctions alone are doing practically nothing. Look, the US bought a peak 40billion of Russian resources, and Russia bought just 6 from the USA. There are about 40 countries engaged in the sanctions, out of 195 in the world. That 20% of the nations on earth are engaging in sanctions. Of those however China and India are NOT on that list, and they have massive populations. So, less than 15% of the people on earth are in nations with sanctions. But, most of the countries with sanctions are still buying anyway, just less than before. Europe's imports from Russian are still running at 20%. VERY lucrative. Double check ANY of my numbers in ChatGPT. Then there is the whole 'Global South' \ BRICS thing, which is making progress in decommissioning the USD as reserve currency. That'll cause hundreds of billions of USD to find somewhere where they will be accepted. Like the USA. That kind of inflation when it ramps up with blow the US socks off. So, be careful with finding new ways to make other countries to stop using USD, like by cutting them off from SWIFT, and the blowback from that is guaranteed. the US structural trade imbalance caused it to export fantastical quantities of USD for -nothing-. Those $$$ will return when they are no longer used for trade. Now there is a trade block forming amongst the other 80% of the planet. What the hell do you think will happen?
Sanction are for sure working but also creating quite big problems for countries that are imposing them (like EU)... Russia is not Cuba or Venezuela... Is the bigger country in the world but among the bigger production of so many raw material from oil to gas, from wheat to gold, uranium and metals...
@@giannic7424 If Sanctions do not work on the time horizon you need them to, then the don't work. the point of sanctions is to economically cripple a country to such a degree that they do what you want. It's a pain game. You just said that the pain in Europe is quite high. So would you say that germany shutting down factories and rationing power is bringing Russia to it's knees. In addition to what I wrote in the former post, also consider than there are a bunch of nations like Turkey and Iran that import Russian products and export them back to the same countries that have always bought Russian products, they now just pay more for a middle man. This also occurs is open oceans where oil tanks transfer oil between ships and sell it with a different banner... to nations with 'sanctions'. I'm sorry, I'm not buying this sanctions BS, just because this wants to sell clicks for hope. I also just noticed that this dud sounds EXACTLY the BLOODY same as Peter Zeihan who is insufferable enough already. Last thing the world needs is even more know it all pricks running around making non stop bad predictions. My advice to anyone who reads. Look at what is happening, and look at all the predictions you have read. Are there ANY anti Russia content producers that have a reliable history of predictions? No? You know why? They are just sell clicks by sending out messages that seem possible and offer 'hope'. You want to know whats going to happen? Watch the battlefield. Day after day Russia takes 100sqm. Every time the AFU falls back they lose troops. The fall back because they are losing troops. Only only question is 'how long can they hang on'? Long enough for sanctions that have not worked in 3 years to maybe have an effect? No. They are spent. Tired, outnumbered, outgunned and the west is pulling back.
@@nathanielacton3768 Impressive economic and military understanding. Germany is not rationing power. The power outages are near Moscow. The Russian grid gets worse and worse; Russia cannot repair its power plants. What exactly is Russia still successfully exporting that is neither food nor a natural resource (or made directly of natural resources)? The important point is not that Russia is still selling natural resources indirectly. The important point is that this indirection severely reduces the price Russia gets. You talk about inflation but not about the much more important point that the national wealth fund is running out (should be the first thought of a banker). Talk about controlling inflation after that. You talk about Ukrainian losses but not about Russian losses? This is insane even by propaganda standards.The Ukrainians pull back in order to inflict improve the loss ratio. And the damages to Russian manufacturing by military action have just begun.
Quantifying printing money as essentially a non legislated tax, is what I have always believed. This has been my view since we in the( U.S.) went off the gold standard. There may be other reasons for going off the gold standard, but it amounts to the same thing.
A very good analysis, thank you! As a citizen of Russia, I must admit the picture you described about how some “simple” people in Russia see the war is very close to truth
@@maddskillz5177 You are a sim if you believe the lies your government has told you. Russia went bankrupt 30 years ago and they are repeating the process.
@@maddskillz5177 Are you a Putin Bot? There are numerous sources out there that state exactly what this guy is saying and in fact the History of War proves he is correct.
Thanks a lot for the video, Paul! Yep, even russian gov already started discussing “stagflation” (stagnation+inflation), so i hope Western governments will stop thinking russia is doing great. Thanks for spreading this message🤝
@@mddell24 I did hear that inflation was at 22% somewhere else to. I do feel sorry for the ordinary person in the street waiting for a payment to fix there homes. They where not the cause of all this misery as we all know.
This was genuinely fascinating to listen to. Im not an economics guy but your explanation is top notch, i understood everything and i had a big aha moment. This channel is going to blow up easily, just a matter of time. Thank you for supporting ukraine Paul
@@petunized So it's all a conspiracy from Big Tech, who make your believes disappear, is that your point? Russian troll factories pump out content and comment bots in overdrive, much more than anyone could hope to silence, and basically no one gives a rats ass anymore, so that can't be it. I wholeheartedly invite you to believe whatever you will, let's meet at the finish line when we've seen this conflict through and talk about cold, hard facts in hindsight. Then you will have a real world reference of measurement as to your believes' merit and roots in reality, if you're still interested by then.
The whole video is BS, because he didn't accounted money flow to Russia because of the exports, which on average is $430 bln per year, and projected for 2024 - $490 bln.
Not Russia, but.... a city that I will not name pays contractors 160 days after receiving a ( net 30 ) invoice. Most contractors have discovered that and triple any new invoices ( "I'm not a bank" ) The city regularly pays triple having "saved" money by dragging out payments.
Big corparates in the uk have similar payment terms usually 90 days though AFTER the invoice has been accepted into the system ,,,most suppliers unfortunately wont wait that long and want their money paid at end of the month ,,so its not unusual to have paid your suppliers for materials months before you get paid yourself
I argued with my younger brother this same issue long ago. He claimed that wars created wealth. I claimed that they just cost money. Dept rises. It's a false rise in prosperity. I knew I was correct!
Wars do not create wealth overall but they can redistribute wealth. Many wars lead to increased demand and a redistribution of economic resources. This can have positive effects for some people.
@@hermes7587this is true. Not just wars but other times of crisis as well. I was working for a lab during the 2008 financial crash that did lots of government contracts. Stimulus spending meant that I was working generous overtime and making more money than ever while my rent was going down. But nobody should use my experience to argue that the 2008 crisis was good for the economy or for people generally.
The only reason why the United States did so well post-World War 2 was because they had no external competition since half the world was in rubble. Companies like apple make so much more than even the top five military industrial complex companies combined. The rich would rather get rich off of Apple, than get rich off of Raytheon.
You are not correct; what wars do is destroy/eliminate infrastructure, population and so on. Perhaps, the analogy of a forest fire explains it best; the forest is destroyed but the earth is fertilized and there enormous and rapid, vigorous regrowth and new growth.
Wars and countries/economies recovering from it are a bit like (self-inflicted) pain: It'll feel great once you stop hurting yourself, making the pain go away - but you'd have been much better off if you hadn't started to self-inflict any pain in the first place. Anyone who thinks that wars create prosperity should just look at aerial shots of European cities like my hometown of Cologne in mid 1945, photos of what the Western Front looked like from the air in 1918 or Hiroshima in 1946.
I'm very glad to see someone from Wet to have so profound knowledge about Russian economy, what happened there in 90's and showing those parallels to what happens today. You are so on point, but not even many russians understand that
profound knowledge? lmao this guy never reads an article, never sources anything and obviously doesnt follow the war beside major mainstream media headlines. Only thing he wants is to try to use this conflict to build an audience and make a living on the people who come here to have their hopes reinforced. He tells pro ukrainians what they want to hear but he doesnt really make an effort to make any sort of quality content. He is out to make a quick buck on eastern europeans dying and killing each other .. What a guy, no?
Nothing similar to 90s, when Russia was actually surrendering by own will. At contrary, nowadays is far from any kind of despair or withdrawal attitudes
You are correct in all that you said. The sanctions were a gut shot not a double tap, and we needed time for the regime to bleed out. But I contend that it is finished regardless of any lifting of the sanctions. The Russian economy has been destroyed, and it will take at least 20 years to recover to pre-2022 levels of prosperity.
I find it hard to believe any western companies would invest there, ever again, considering it has showed its true face and cannot be trusted. I don't think they'll ever reach pre-2022 levels of prosperity, due to lack of investments and horrific demographic future. One thing that bugs me, how is it supposedly only the US that have a say in sanctions? "US will lift sanctions with Trump" etc.
I agree with you and like your analogies, but Western sanctions have been too gradual and not comprehensive enough. More could have been done, and quicker. Current sanctions have been like a tourniquet applied to an arm or a leg. That tourniquet should have been applied to their neck. Of course, Europeans were concerned about inflation and economic shocks arising from the sudden loss of energy and raw materials imports from Russia, so that is understandable, but more can be done. Both military aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia have been only half-measures so far. While Russia is bleeding out, we must not forget that Ukraine is, as well. Time is of the essence.
Bankruptcy is when you cannot meet your debt obligations. Ukraine is more likely to go bankrupt before Russia does. Russia has more than enough resources to meet its financial needs. Denying a country the ability to trade its goods and resource then stating that it is bankrupt as a result is just bollocks.
@@vfclists That's only half the truth. Yes, you are bankrupt if you can't pay your dept obligations. But the thing is, governments can decide to simply void depts others own to them, and that is a lot more likely to happen for Ukraine than for Russia. Just an example, the Sovietunion didn't had to pay for the equipment they got via Lend-Lease in full. The US simply said after the war "pay us that amount and we are good." Also, what ressources has Russia beside Gas and Oil that really can make them money?
@@shi01ask china and north korea, especially china who decided to just say fuck the west with it's manufacturing industry that depends on the west. but let me guess you're smarter than all those countries in brics.
@@rosschops9509will the stock market exist in 20 years? If so, yes, 401Ks will exist. It’s essentially pre-taxed income being invested into the market to be withdrawn and taxed as income after you retire.
An excellent account of the effect of inflation and its deliberate use by criminal governments with reference to what this means for the war in our European neighborhood.
A country can increase the amount of currency in circulation without negative effects as long as it has the ability to also increase supply of goods and services. The problem for Russia is that it CAN´T do this, because the economy is overheating and there is a shortage of workers. This WILL lead to inflation.
That's a good point and the United States is behaving badly with regard to the degree that its debt is growing faster than its economy is growing. However if it gets to a point where its debt is growing at 97% of the growth of the economy than the debt will become smaller in relation to the total economy every year.
@@saltyyankee5149 The Russian central bank has started to buy government bonds (nobody else wants them). This increases the amout of currency in circulation and is commonly referred to as "printing money". Gold mining is a non-issue in a modern economy. There is simply not enough gold in comparision to the size of an industrial economy. This is the main reason why there are no more gold-backed currencies.
But the russian economy is less than a tength of the size ,,,the 10 biggest companies in the world are american ,,,specifically money printing only happemed during the mess after covid to kickstart a flat economy ,,,Government borrowing against bonds is a universal way to keep the wheels rolling ,,us europeans are experts at it lol🤣
Perfect assessment Paul. My wife, who grew up in Russia, is there now and everything "looks" honkey dory. Prices did go up however. Shops are full but only in the weekend there are customers. Putin is now threatening with his ICBMs and what not but the real problem is the economy. When he talks about "destroying the Russian culture" it actually means, destroying the economy. The phrase which always is valid: It's the economy stupid!
Shops being full on weekends means that people are working. I don't know why these channels are continuing to argue about economic collapse. They first claimed that sanctions would destroy it within a year, after that, it was imminent collapse and now they're saying "the economy will collapse in the foreseeable future ( < 2-5 years). This is justification after the fact for a strategy that had no real effect on the war. Russia was unfortunately prepared to conduct the war and handle the sanctions.
@@Rotwold I think thats not an accurate assesment ,,,The collapse has happened already with hundreds of buinesses leaving your country and the tax rubles that went with them ,,,Oil and gas that can only be sold illegally at vast discount in India and China wont sustain an entire economy ,,,youve survived because your economy is massive compared to Ukraine who your fighting but tiny in world terms
@@Al1987ac Well it's not just that; 2 years ago the situation was pretty turbulent in Russia - we saw the adjustment of key rates, implemented measures to prevent capital flight, the imposing of forex repatriation requirements etc. Id say they were relatively interesting times.
@@masterbeethoven8209 I mean that's pretty abstract stuff. I remember people saying Russia will be isolated, Russians will be scraping for buckwheat by the summer, Russia will be balkanized, etc. And nothing happened. * Unless you live at the border. Then it's been a shitshow.
Russia (not that you'll hear this broadcast far and wide) pretty much sacked off their holdings of US treasury bonds back in 2018 preferring gold. And when you have as many natural resources as Russia, including the chunk of eastern Ukraine under their control that's rich in natural resources, the money that's been seized is very small beer. Ukraine, win or lose, is absolutely screwed for decades to come. It will be a debtor nation, with a huge amount of its younger population choosing to leave for more prosperous climes.
@unclefester4626 I'm from Karlsruhe on the Rhine. North of Strasbourg, our European 🇪🇺😀♥ capital. But I'm busy all over the 🌎 Greetings from Kigali, Ruanda.
The city-state I call the Moscow-St Petersburg axis is also using their countries acquired by conquest is using them as cannon fodder. The average Moscow citizen does not feel the results of the killing going on in Ukraine. Moscow has always prospered, when it prospered, was always at the expense of of the rest of the vast area called Russia, all of which was a union that was not a union and now a federation that is not a federation.
When your black market currency has been - and from what I can tell, still is - more valuable than your official currency, you never really had a large savings account, let alone a strong economy. And for those curious, look up this history of the Tu-22. Its most famous nickname, one that was given to it by the Russians, gives it away: "Supersonic Booze Carrier."
A lot of the same groceries would still be there that were on shelves when Tucker last visited. PS Vlad was willing to extend an offer of citizenship to Tuck, but withdrew it once he heard Tuck laugh 😂
A guy in Utah is telling me about the russian economy. There are plenty of other people that talk about this and more than likely this guy uses them for his information. there is a guy in Tashkent who is probably a source.
Not needing to watch the video, but reading the comments, my question to you. Do these sources and parrots distinguish "Russia" from the "Russian Federation"? Russia, (West of Ural) with Moscow and Petersburg spend the money from natural resources and most of the money goes to corrupt oligarchs and their corrupt cronies in the military, and other "shared services". Nothing to the development of the federation. Nothing to "the people". As to Toshkent, Uzbekistan, the question is how independent it has become since 1991. And what democratic values are held up in there. After the start of the SMO, maybe up to a million younger Russian men have fled the federation or Russia to far away, in order to not go to the killing fields. These all must have been intelligent enough to do so, educated enough, and have money enough to bribe themselves across the border, and build a new life abroad. That brain drain and money drain in itself already is a long term wound that will hurt for a long time still to come. A part of these men lives outside Russia and now tells the new locals that they are from Ukraine.
@@FloydThePink old vlad finding out he cant beat economics soon the canon fodder will want to be paid in dollars instead of worthless rouble and that is when the implosion of the military machine will start
I just at the conversion rate, and it reminded me of the expression: What is the difference between the US Dollar and the ruble? About a dollar. A penny is more valuable than the ruble right now.
I think inflation is another reason why people spend their money as quickly as possible. Most people understand that it will not be worth a lot in short time.
Inflation is the same in western countries because they print dollars and send to Ukraine. Houses prices, rent, food, everything doubled (100%) in last three years and salaries increased 20%.
that's the bitch of inflation. you want to buy now and not later, but that ups demand and exacerbates the inflation. it's true for deflation too for the opposite reason. Your money is worth more over time, so you save it more aggressively. Everyone saves, nobody buys anything, prices go down.
@@birdsgrovethat’s not how either inflation or aid to Ukraine work. US inflation was in large part due to over-generous stimulus (and tax cuts) by both the Trump and Biden administrations during and immediately after the pandemic. Sending our hand-me-down military equipment to Ukraine is mostly unrelated.
@@ebrim5013 That's what they told you, but 100 billion of dollars is spent somewhere and destroyed. It must come from somewhere. someone must earn it to be destroyed.
Brilliant, informative, direct, and most importantly accurate. Thank you very much for me to gain understanding and comprehension. No one could have said it better than you. Ty bro
tariffs work, the reason tariff is imposed is to balance a trade deficit, you select the products you want to impose tariffs. Southe korea is a success story of imposing tariffs
Putin has turned up the rubble printing machine to its maximum! He's printing rubbles like toilet paper. Greetings from a Portuguese guy, living in Germany and watching your video from Seoul Korea!
could be true but when I googled 'putin printing money' I only got the mess that Kamala and Biden created along side articles on BRICS. I'm certain their import economy is impossible, but because of socialism under the ussr and the poverty in recent memory, they are more culturally ready to go without than we are.. I'm curious if the Russian currency is a FIAT currency like ours or if it's backed with something..
It would be funny if it weren't so sad to see this ongoing calling the kettle black and rejoicing about Putin's imminent downfall. Keeps the European sheeple happy and blind to the backdraft on their economy from the US instigated economic sanctions on Russia. Just look at the German miracle and British prosperity.
The same holds true for the Chinese economy today. In the West, we tend to think that institutions and government behave the same way in authoritarian countries as here.
It is arguable that Russia has ever been 'communist'. It has always been run by murderous gangsters right from the time that the Romanovs were murdered.
The Russian revolution was primarly an uprising against the Czar and his corrupt and oppressive regime. The communists happened to be a popular movement at the time and the German Empire was so "kind" to ship Lenin from his exile in Switzerland back to Russia in a bid to saw chaos in Russia. If the current Russian regime collapses something completely different might emerge from the ashes. The problem is that no sane person wants to see a civil war in an nuclear armed nation.
Russia's contract for gas sales to Hungary and other eastern European states ends at the end of this year. Ukraine has continued to allow those deliveries for political purposes, but will not renew the contract. Russian gas sales to Europe will go almost to zero at that point. Furthermore, there are still western sanctions that could be applied but have not. For example, if the world's democracies could prohibit any merchant vessel that visits a Russian port from entering the ports of sanctioning countries upon pain of confiscation. The same goes for commercial aircraft. This would immediately reduce the value of any vessel or aircraft used in trade with Russia and serve to make international trade even more difficult for Russia.
It fact the Ukraine uses Russian gas supplied through it's territory, pretending that Russian gas pumped to Hungary, and the Ukraine is buying different gas from the West. No real gas for Ukraine from the West if Ukrainian regime stops pumping Russian gas.
Зачем им это делать, когда они сами же на этом зарабатывают большие деньги. Пора уже понять, что всем абсолютно пофиг на войны и смерти, лишь бы сами они были при деньгах, только раньше это работало на их стороне, а нынче это работает против них, НО от этого они никогда не откажутся, таково нутро капитализма - нет неподкупных людей, просто им мало предлагали денег..
Ruble fell 3% just on Friday. Back in the 90s Sweden tried to do the same as russia and buy it's own currency, it's very costly. Sweden took up loans to buy it's own currency. In the end it failed and the currency got it it's low valuation BUT the 30-40 billion USD in loans was still there. So in hindsight it would have been better to not defend the currency and just let it get the valuation it have. Now russia is much bigger country then Sweden and this was the 90s and russia been buying it's own currency with saved capital instead of loans. How much can they have wasted away on doing it? No one knows and no one even counts it in when estimating on how much money russia have left. After the russian collapse we will know. Maybe 100 Billion USD?
The head of russias central Bank, Mrs Nabiullah stated this week that russia will run out of all financial resources next year.....that means current budget, National Welfare fund, money in foreign banks like china, gold reserves etc. Then the army and pensions stop getting paid.....then the torches and pitchforks come out. Besides the rouble crashing food shortages, there are other indicators.....russia is cutting wounded benefits they had been giving out......many russians arent getting death benefits, as russia wont inform them their family member has passed.
Russiand are used to not getting paid for 6 months. So i doubt pitchforks will come out. And russia is probably selective in who the reduce payments to. Widowers and pensioneers are not gonna be a threat if they come out with torches.
Just switch "Russia" to "Ukraine" and it seems about right. Russia is autarky - with own food and resources. And a support of the most of the countries of the world. US and its colonies is just a small portion of it.
@@dv8ug Holy hll. Zelenskyy is getting FREE wealth from the West. He's able to pay his government payroll WITHOUT collecting taxes. It's NO WONDER that the Ukrainian elites are in Wonder Land. They've never seen anything like it. This is why the Caribbean is afloat with Ukrainian mega-yachts as I type. No-one is crazy enough to leave their war profits within sight of Ukraine.
Nice review, Thank You. It's quite important to explain these aspects of the Economy of russia. Only few steps to pass and the situation will be clear for everyone
Economy is a fundamental part of every human society. The Russian economy will not disappear but it will get worse, very worse for the Russians. Basically it will feel to them as if the 1990s have returned, but this time there will be no foreign aid. Foreign companies wil be very reluctant to invest in Russia again after Putin has stolen most foreign assests in Russia.
People said the same thing in 2022, that Russia was about to collapse any day. 3 years later, no lessons learned, because why change your tune when you can cope instead.
@@anjafarki wonder if the real estate market is crashing. At 28 i am guessing less than 10% of the population gets bank loan approved. No need for them to realize or understand, banks should deny loan applications all day
Thanks Paul. I almost forgot a story that a Russian friend told me ages ago, that her boss would hold back income payments for six months. It seemed a little weird then, almost unbelievable. Most people in my country (Australia) would simply quit if their monthly salary was delayed.
That's why you can not really understand the fact that pressuring on Russians just makes us stronger. You get weaker and your spirit is dissolving in useless bs you taught to believe like so called gender science
It's like the war in Bosnia-Hercegovina in 1991-1995. The serbian people had to pay for the aggression via an extreme inflation. It costed a couple of millions of dinari to eat lunch at Mc Donalds...
@@poleteli Same infrastructure, mostly same supply chains, partially the same people who worked there before and last but not least: same know-how. Yeah. No McD anymore. Learn to apply the difference of de-facto and de-jure mate.
Well done - mention economics and money inflation you loose 85% of the general population - this is well done as for those 85% this really explains at a level they can understand -
@@ChronicCraftsman it's affecting. But most people still can afford it. Even if they can't, nobody will notice. As Russian advertisement of protein shakes say, Russian old people die from protein deficiency. So basically they are slowly starving eating only pasta and potatoes and it didn't bother anybody in the West and in Russia. Screams will happen only if workers will start losing conscience from hunger on the job. And maybe when you can't conscript boys because they are too malnourished. It happened during 90s.
@ChronicCraftsman you are talking like every Russian could afford butter before. And that's wasn't the case before. Less people can afford it now and what's from that. They will margarine and it wouldn't be even in inflation numbers. Because inflation is about increase in cost of living not cost of goods. If butter gone up 30% and margarine gone up 10% inflation of cost of living is 10% because you can use margarine instead of butter
I am from one of the countries what was occupied by soviets. Before collapse actually people had lot of rubles... but you could not buy anything... there was nothing to buy and if there was there the inflation was daily... sounds similar?
@giannimotzer4789 by Russian standards it's moderate. It's not developed country after all. Everybody still remembers 90s when inflation and interest rates were much higher.
@@giannimotzer4789 Potatoes cost from 17 to 35 rubles in stores today. What 74% rise in price are you talking about? The oil ranges from 160 to 400 depending on the manufacturer. Idiots suffered nonsense about closed cabinets based on incomprehensible videos. I have not seen a shortage or locked shelves in any store. But you probably know better than the Russians. Funny
I will tell you a sad story russia will fight and fight if people will not remove the current government. The economy doesn't matter if government wants to fight and people do nothing.
Russia's military has been proven to be incompetent. They have lost a great deal of their equipment. Their troops are poorly trained and poorly led. Whatever high tech arms they still produce are dependent upon evading sanctions to acquire Western technology. Both the Russian military and the Russian economy are in shambles. If Western sanctions had been even quicker and more comprehensive, and western military aid to Ukraine had also been quicker and more comprehensive with fewer restrictions, this war might already have ended. Putin keeps the war going because he will lose his head when it is over.
The people had the choice to remove the current government in the last election. 28 political parties fought a hotly contested election,whereby several parties were elected to the state Duma. Most people back their President, who let's face it is a much better (and sober) leader than his predecessor!
@@klawlor3659 Was this the same election in which two popular independent opposition candidates for president were refused access to the ballot and candidates from some other parties endorsed Putin BEFORE the election?
@@markalexander832 если эти идиоты не смогли набрать положенного количества подписей в свою сторону, что бы смогли баллотироваться в выборах, то это лишь их вина, и вообще, кое где есть только 2 кандидата, и никто ведь не переживает..
Really good video! Pretty much how I was trying to explain it to my friend the other day, but I didn't explain it nearly as elegantly. Will forward this video for people. Economic sanctions won't show it self right away, it's all hidden under layers of actions a state can take to temporary minimise, but eventually start to show but can take long time.
I agree with your thesis. You said one thing which is the most profound. "Putin thought the invasion would last a few days and the cost would be paid by the resources acquired in Ukraine". This is correct. That is why they are concentrating their efforts in Southern Ukraine where all the coal is and the newly discovered oil and gas fields are. They were concerned about the Orange revolution and that it might encourage Russians to do the same and also these new oil and gas fields would compete with what they were selling into Europe. The fields are closer and much cheaper to extract. Yes it's power but under that it's money. Money they have and intended stealing. They are just a pack of theves who kill people for money.
I just googled you and learned that you are a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve. It made perfectly sense to me.... but then i saw the picture of the guy who died in 1932 😅 But for a moment it actually made sense.
How? It has a growing immigration rate, huge natural resources and has wider trade links than ever before. If anything the West is going to be down the sewer before Russia hits the skids pal. If you've visited the UK lately you'll see what I mean!
@@andybales7318 He's shown incredible restraint so far, bearing on mind the tabloids love to label him as "mad". I'm more worried about our money grubbing regime, after all the number of countries we have bullied and terrorized over the last 50 years is beyond the pale!
@@theMosen the interest rate is public knowledge. It's not insider knowledge. Whether or not his argument is sound depends on your reasoning about what the impact of such a high rate of interest rate is. Most of his points are arguable, but you can have a conversation about the facts without having to take him at his word.
Russian economy is hurting. Very high inflation, high interest rates, ruble losing much of its value. Trump will further damage the Russian economy by providing more oil and gas from the United States. Meanwhile Ukraine keeps taking out more of Russias oil and gas production and storage facilities.
Trump will also open the Keystone pipeline which will provide much more oil from Canada. Russian oil demand will fall dramatically and deny them of income they need to fund the war.
@@ericwilliams1659 You have to be braindead to actually believe this. People have been crying the same things in the west in 2022 when the ruble spiked higher than it did now. And yet 2 years later Russia is no worse for wear at all. Meanwhile I can look at any european country outside of like poland and bulgaria or the usa and see only decline and ruin.
Very interesting about why payments 'delayed'. When I heard various reports about withholding of wages in Russia, I thought it was very strange. But makes sense now. Thanks for the insight.
I feel sorry for the Russian people as much as I do for the Ukrainian people in this war. I feel sorry for common man dragged into this war on both sides. It pains me when I hear people talk about innocent Russians getting sent into the meat grinder and silly people in the comments celebrating it. The majority are innocent people who don’t want to fight. Russian people aren’t the enemy PUTIN IS. The Kremlin are the enemy! Why celebrate the death of an innocent? If you’re not drafted you're coerced into the war through threats and propaganda. It’s not so easy to rise up and stand up for what’s right when you’re surrounded by doom. Some people in the comments wouldn’t stop a common thief stealing from an old lady in public and probably just watch. Resisting the war is harder said than done. I pray it ends soon and both countries can build and prosper without people like putin running them. No more dictators!
No, _russian people_ are the enemy. Putin is just a product of its society, whose brains he and others have been bombarding with propaganda (it is a degradation spiral). Man, do your research if interested, just do not be offended, pls. My own relatives from Russia (who were kind to us before the war) were calling and saying that we, ukrainians, are 'fascists' and that we deserve to be hit with all those rockets. Also, this might surprise you and other westerners: russians are claiming that they fight with United States. Yes, kinda with Ukraine, but because it is backed by US. They screamed it so hard for years, that they seem to have believed in their own buill$hit. And that their goal is now Europe and ultimately US.
I think you would be surprised to know how many people in Russia in brainwashed by propaganda (one of the best in the world) to believe they NEED to fight for Kremlin, because Kremlin “fights for good of Russia”
@@playedout148 When I was in Ukraine, it was all Russian. The problem arose when Russia thought 'OK let us be neighborly' and let "The Ukraine" (it was a region not a country) govern it's self. But then Europe got greedy.
USA business schools teach this same ^hit. Make your clients pay fast,, but pay your suppliers slow. It makes your suppliers into a bank. At the local level, this has real impacts on contractors.
I wish we had guys like this teaching economics and history class in public high schools in the US. Most of this is basic economics but... maybe transferring some critical thinking skills... we'd have a more educated electorate than the absolute naive joke of poorly educated voters we have now.
Republicans don't want educated voters capable of critical thinking. Keeping them ignorant and waving shiny objects in their face make them easier to manipulate and mislead.
Putin will not last another year if sanctions are continued and increased. Releasing all of the frozen Russian assets to Ukraine will obviously be the death knell.
As Russia's disposable income falls and prices increase, the Russians replace everyday goods with inferior goods. In Economics, this is a known phenomenon. Inferior goods demand rises as people have less income and have hard times. Russian food quality can be measured on the food quality index as some of the worst in the world. This subsequently has an effect on human health in Russia. If Russians want to make the world a better place, they must be aware of the impact on their long-term health and lives caused by economic disruptions from this geopolitical event. If they serve their families inferior goods at the culinary table because of falling income and rising prices, this has unintended consequences for future generations.
Just look on the Russian supermarket shelves and compare it to the much poorer US and European goods choice. You are the third world countries compare to Russia in that sense.
@@AAaa-wu3el Ruzzian supermarkets have shelves full of stuff maybe, stuff I wouldn't even feed my dog at a price that only the oligarchs can afford 😂😂😂😂
@@AAaa-wu3el perhaps they like eating North Korean dog meat and Chinese snake soup. The cost of butter is up 60% and potatoes 74%, and overall inflation is 60%, and you're telling me everybody is happy. Only in ruzzia 😂😂😂😂
Unless of course they are lying about the gdp numbers.. which is hilariously likely. Furthermore you don't see conditions like up like creator stated unless it's closer to the truth
That is incorrect. The Russian GDP is around $2 trillion and DOD estimates they are spending around $211 billion a year on the war or more than 10% of GDP. This war is incredibly costly, as demonstrated by the massive casualties and documented equipment losses Russia has sustained. In addition they have lost access to their most lucrative markets, and have to pay higher prices for imports to get around sanctions. This war is a huge drag on their economy.
@underdog578 we haven't received a single accurate figure from Western sources. From causilties, money spent, etc.... all highly inflated numbers for their information war.
It's an incredibly simple, common sense question, but somehow people seem to get the answer wrong all the time.
How could the most heavily sanctioned economy in the world possibly be doing *better* than it ever has, while simultaneously fighting an incredibly expensive and all-consuming war that's eating up a huge percentage of what the economy still manages to produce?
And the war is usually not the hardest part. Occupation is even harder. Russia never had the means to do this.
Ok Mormon
Dem gjør det ikke bedre i dag det er bs
Why wouldn't the most heavily sanctioned economy in the world punish those who are by your own words trying to starve the Russian population? The Russians obviously think they're in world war 3 already, so assuming they'd capitulate instead of escalate is terribly naive.
When your inflation is 8% a month and some mortgage loans are now around 35% you get the sense those unseal, muddy roads and outdoor toilets are going to stay like this for another century. Fight imperialism.
Some time ago I joined a startup that raised a massive amount of money. If you had come inside shortly after, you would have seen the most dynamic thriving company ever. Artists, programmers, famous people visiting. It was a boom time! Except, they couldn't get the product to sell and so it became a ghost town after the money was gone.
Bingo!
Fool Russians don't operate on the same principles that westerners do, we're a collectivist society. Read the work of lenin.
Alas, another Californian dream pops.
@@grbradsk excellent analogy
This is a pattern among some recent startups, they get a bunch of investor funding, move into glitzy offices, have celebrities come by and live high on the hog while the money is flowing. Then the company goes under due to lack of sales, or in many cases a completely unviable business model that they managed to convince people was sustainable. Often the founders walk away with a nice tidy sum and then have to be chased by lawsuits to try and reclaim any money, which could often be more expensive than just forgetting about the lost money. If investors decide not to go after them with lawsuits, they face no repercussions and are more emboldened to repeat the cycle.
The problem with wartime economies are everything is fine until they suddenly aren't and it gets real bad real quickly. Wartime economies are the snake that eats its self.
Exactly .... You use assets to make more assets which you then destroy which eventually destroys all your assets. That doesn't even account for the Brain Drain from people leaving the country and then destruction of a significant portion of your workforce meaning there aren't enough young people working to support the welfare of the retirees. This will stymie their economy for the better part of a generation.
yeah, and trump will end this
@@LinhKiều-i5g LOL!
Did Biden do anything but throw fuel on the fire-a little at a time?
@@LinhKiều-i5g One would hope so but do you really think Putin respects Trump enough to listen to him at all?
War is very expensive. Countries don't pay only by money but by men, workforce, demographic changes, mental wellness, psychological aftermaths and a lot of grieving people.
Russia gained millions in loyal population, though.
@@dimas3829 BS.
@@1LERS1 say thanks to EU and US sanctions. Crimea population are the most loyal Russians there are thanks to the West pushing them down for their vote on referendum to be part of their Homeland.
Also, thanks to Zelensky attacking Kursk and Putin not diverting troops from Donbass- the absolute loyalty of Eastern Ukrainians to Russia is also solidified.
USA has been on continuous wars for several decades and Im not sure its as bad as you think
@@dimas3829 You mean stolen babies and forced relocation?
Konstantin at Inside Russia does a pretty good job at breaking down the state of the Russian economy on a more granular level. He’s got an economics/engineering background and still has contacts and family living in Russia so his information tends to be pretty good.
Yep, his videos are great.
It must be hard for him to watch his country's demise.
His video's are cool, but at over an hour long, I don't have time for such a long vid on one subject among many.
@@jujuUK68playback at x1.5 and it’s still quite intelligible.
Plus he's a great human being! Been following him since the very first day of the invasion! He doesn't let us forget there are still people like him in ruZZia. There is hope!
As we say in Ireland "Fur Coat - No Knickers"
That's a good one!😂
Ah ok.
Vlad Vexler once shared a russian quote: "Our arses are naked, but our rockets fly high ..."
In Texas, all hat and no cattle.
All fart and no poo.
So much opinion about things that could fork in so many different directions at so many points. As the famous expression goes: "It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future".
Today you need 104 rubles to buy 1 dollar. This is going downhill fast!
The ruble has turned to rubble
And then you learn about decimals..
Just don't tell me that because wages have risen massively in Russia. 😦😧🤯
But why would you want a dollar? over valued shit that cant buy much yet it takes a broken back to earn
Next year the rubble is predicted to be under 100.
Hello Paul, it's wonderful to listen to you. Not only is your English wonderful for me to understand in German, I can also follow your thoughts very well. I don't believe that there is a plan from the West, or only actors who would be able to react quickly to certain situations. This whole lousy game is on the bones of the normal Russians and the Ukrainians. It really is a perfidious ‘game’ that some criminals are playing right now. No honour anywhere.
You captured the situation perfectly. There is no "plan". Just management of the "crisis-of-the-day".
Yes. Countries that have bought cheap Russian oil and gas and failed to pay their fair share of their own defence costs like…..
Above all it saddens me the human suffering on all sides. How hard it must be for mothers and fathers to let there children go and fight a pointless war.
How could Putin emotionlessly let all their men be killed for nothing.
I wouldn’t let me sons waste their lives for nothing.
I'm sure Ukrainian people don't believe it's pointless to defend their country and Russia doesn't believe it's pointless to protect ethnic Russians from being murdered by Ukrainian militias. Regardless war should not be necessary for humans with the intellectual power we have. How will it end?
You ask why is Putin letting his men be killed. Because Putin doesn't care about his people. He only cares about himself and those who keep him in power, his oligarchs!
Outdoors geo-politics. If you look close you'll see Peter Zeihan, in the background, doing his take on the world.
Look, there's Alex Christoforou!
Чудес не бывает, родной. Пушной зверёк неотвратим. Он придёт не завтра и не через месяц, но неизбежно придёт. Я думаю где-то между 25 и 30 годами он придёт. А когда закончится и чем? - закончится не быстро (десять-двадцать лет минимум), чем - непредсказуемо.
Но пока экономика ещё может продержаться на печатании денег.
Если уволят Набиулину - пушной придёт быстрее.
I broadly agree with your analysis of the current state of the Russian economy and its military strength; however, dictators like Putin can drag out a war and impose terrible levels of suffering on its people before the end finally does come. I’m afraid that when this war is over that both Ukraine and Russia will be utterly ruined.
Ukraine may end up losing her land but as long as she survives as a sovereign state...she will recover much faster with EU/US aids than Russia.
Why would putin go that far? Is he insane, or is there a rational explanation?
The difference being that when that happens then Ukraine will have the support of western countries. Whereas Russia will have no support.
Opportunity for China.
Putin dictator ? Give it a rest cupcake. 🙄
Paul: I very much enjoy your dissertations regarding virtually everything (grin) You are well enunciated, & you maintain an even speech level, & articulate well. Best of all, your viewers are not being fed misinformation. Well done Sir. Cheers!...from the windswept Prairies of Alberta, Canada
Paul, as a student of history and current events, your analysis is spot on. Thanks for aggregating all of these events and facts so concisely.
We owe you a lot Paul.
He assume this how it works.
Interest rates will go higher, inflation will go higher and the ruble will turn into rubble. The Russian economy is totally scr4wed.
Ruble to rubble I like that
You all so funny. You don't even know how stupid you look like
Russia had hyperinflation in the 90s. And had war after that. And Russian GDP before Putin came to power was smaller in 2 or 3 times. And it's still waged war. But you can sit here all day and talk how 3% GDP drop even smaller than drop during 2008 GFC and small by Russian history inflation is gonna crash Russia and sign of Russia going bust.
Same as last 2 years. When will it end.
@mddell24 never. It all goes according to plan. They wanted hyperinflation to change rubles to CBDC, digital ruble. It's being tested already, then when rubble will get out of hand they will roll out it for everybody and force to accept it. There are little technical details that they need to sort out before full roll out, but inflation is not that bad by Russian standards. So it can wait.
Also some people say Russia can freeze Russian bank accounts, expropriate gold from citizens. And of course there is old plan of expropriating real estate from ordinary Russian citizens. Law is already discussed. As Claus Schwab said you will own nothing and you will be happy. Some Russians already commented that it will be good for Russians
Finally some common sense and full understanding from American on Russia, appreciated! Spread the truth!
As they say: The truth will set America free.
I’m a citizen of ex soviet republic, and it’s heartbreaking to watch how Russian propaganda works well in America. We, who were living under Russian propaganda for decades, are more tolerant to it, and it is very obvious to us
@@elbekmusinov2968why type of propaganda do you speak of? What message is Russia trying to convince Americans of? That Russia WILL nuke them and it’s not a bluff?
He is extremely ignorant actually
People that do not have a good understanding of economics were fast to dismiss our sanctions but they do work and you are seeing it happen now. All the best Paul.
You do know that just before the election Ol Joe removed the sanctions on Russian oil! Because US needs cheap oil, US is now buying Russian oil.
I have a good understanding of economics and worked in banking for the past 30 years. Please tell me what controls inflation in a closed economy? Then tell me how closed the Russian economy actually is and what percentage of the world still trades with Russia (or at least has no sanctions). Also tell me if the countries with sanctions are still buying anyway (like Europe).
The situation is complex, but American Sanctions alone are doing practically nothing. Look, the US bought a peak 40billion of Russian resources, and Russia bought just 6 from the USA.
There are about 40 countries engaged in the sanctions, out of 195 in the world. That 20% of the nations on earth are engaging in sanctions. Of those however China and India are NOT on that list, and they have massive populations. So, less than 15% of the people on earth are in nations with sanctions. But, most of the countries with sanctions are still buying anyway, just less than before. Europe's imports from Russian are still running at 20%. VERY lucrative.
Double check ANY of my numbers in ChatGPT.
Then there is the whole 'Global South' \ BRICS thing, which is making progress in decommissioning the USD as reserve currency. That'll cause hundreds of billions of USD to find somewhere where they will be accepted. Like the USA. That kind of inflation when it ramps up with blow the US socks off. So, be careful with finding new ways to make other countries to stop using USD, like by cutting them off from SWIFT, and the blowback from that is guaranteed. the US structural trade imbalance caused it to export fantastical quantities of USD for -nothing-. Those $$$ will return when they are no longer used for trade. Now there is a trade block forming amongst the other 80% of the planet.
What the hell do you think will happen?
Sanction are for sure working but also creating quite big problems for countries that are imposing them (like EU)... Russia is not Cuba or Venezuela... Is the bigger country in the world but among the bigger production of so many raw material from oil to gas, from wheat to gold, uranium and metals...
@@giannic7424 If Sanctions do not work on the time horizon you need them to, then the don't work. the point of sanctions is to economically cripple a country to such a degree that they do what you want. It's a pain game.
You just said that the pain in Europe is quite high. So would you say that germany shutting down factories and rationing power is bringing Russia to it's knees.
In addition to what I wrote in the former post, also consider than there are a bunch of nations like Turkey and Iran that import Russian products and export them back to the same countries that have always bought Russian products, they now just pay more for a middle man. This also occurs is open oceans where oil tanks transfer oil between ships and sell it with a different banner... to nations with 'sanctions'.
I'm sorry, I'm not buying this sanctions BS, just because this wants to sell clicks for hope.
I also just noticed that this dud sounds EXACTLY the BLOODY same as Peter Zeihan who is insufferable enough already. Last thing the world needs is even more know it all pricks running around making non stop bad predictions.
My advice to anyone who reads. Look at what is happening, and look at all the predictions you have read. Are there ANY anti Russia content producers that have a reliable history of predictions? No? You know why? They are just sell clicks by sending out messages that seem possible and offer 'hope'.
You want to know whats going to happen? Watch the battlefield. Day after day Russia takes 100sqm. Every time the AFU falls back they lose troops. The fall back because they are losing troops. Only only question is 'how long can they hang on'? Long enough for sanctions that have not worked in 3 years to maybe have an effect?
No. They are spent. Tired, outnumbered, outgunned and the west is pulling back.
@@nathanielacton3768 Impressive economic and military understanding. Germany is not rationing power. The power outages are near Moscow. The Russian grid gets worse and worse; Russia cannot repair its power plants.
What exactly is Russia still successfully exporting that is neither food nor a natural resource (or made directly of natural resources)? The important point is not that Russia is still selling natural resources indirectly. The important point is that this indirection severely reduces the price Russia gets. You talk about inflation but not about the much more important point that the national wealth fund is running out (should be the first thought of a banker). Talk about controlling inflation after that.
You talk about Ukrainian losses but not about Russian losses? This is insane even by propaganda standards.The Ukrainians pull back in order to inflict improve the loss ratio. And the damages to Russian manufacturing by military action have just begun.
Quantifying printing money as essentially a non legislated tax, is what I have always believed. This has been my view since we in the( U.S.) went off the gold standard. There may be other reasons for going off the gold standard, but it amounts to the same thing.
A very good analysis, thank you! As a citizen of Russia, I must admit the picture you described about how some “simple” people in Russia see the war is very close to truth
Ты и есть симп, если слушаешь эту чушь без смеха.
@@maddskillz5177 You are a sim if you believe the lies your government has told you. Russia went bankrupt 30 years ago and they are repeating the process.
@@maddskillz5177 Are you a Putin Bot? There are numerous sources out there that state exactly what this guy is saying and in fact the History of War proves he is correct.
@@maddskillz5177what I’m laughing at is your blind faith acceptance of what the government is spoon feeding you.
@@johnarnold893 нет, я житель сибири и патриот. Мне 36 лет, я понимаю что причины войны гораздо глубже, чем вы малюете.
Thanks a lot for the video, Paul! Yep, even russian gov already started discussing “stagflation” (stagnation+inflation), so i hope Western governments will stop thinking russia is doing great. Thanks for spreading this message🤝
Pitty yo message had zero facts. I was just itching for some numbers, you know actual facts and figures.
you r so smart
@@mddell24 I did hear that inflation was at 22% somewhere else to. I do feel sorry for the ordinary person in the street waiting for a payment to fix there homes. They where not the cause of all this misery as we all know.
Want numbers...look up Russia's GDP. --> Hint -It's less than the state of NY (2T, if you're wondering... USA ~ 30T)
@@mddell24 you muppet
This was genuinely fascinating to listen to. Im not an economics guy but your explanation is top notch, i understood everything and i had a big aha moment. This channel is going to blow up easily, just a matter of time. Thank you for supporting ukraine Paul
Just arbitrary inferences from carefully chosen facts. Ignoring anything that doesnt fit
@@petunized you have to come up with more than that to make any point
@@Berk-lf6ge YT cuts most of the substantial comments
@@petunized So it's all a conspiracy from Big Tech, who make your believes disappear, is that your point?
Russian troll factories pump out content and comment bots in overdrive, much more than anyone could hope to silence, and basically no one gives a rats ass anymore, so that can't be it. I wholeheartedly invite you to believe whatever you will, let's meet at the finish line when we've seen this conflict through and talk about cold, hard facts in hindsight. Then you will have a real world reference of measurement as to your believes' merit and roots in reality, if you're still interested by then.
Australian here.
An excellent analysis of Russia’s economy.
Well explained to those of us who are not economists.
Thank you.
If you’re not en economist how do you know it’s an excellent explanation?
"Australian here" ffs
@@stevenmoore3480Why does Australia not exist or something 😁😁
Australian, hello from russia!
The whole video is BS, because he didn't accounted money flow to Russia because of the exports, which on average is $430 bln per year, and projected for 2024 - $490 bln.
Not Russia, but.... a city that I will not name pays contractors 160 days after receiving a ( net 30 ) invoice. Most contractors have discovered that and triple any new invoices ( "I'm not a bank" ) The city regularly pays triple having "saved" money by dragging out payments.
Big corparates in the uk have similar payment terms usually 90 days though AFTER the invoice has been accepted into the system ,,,most suppliers unfortunately wont wait that long and want their money paid at end of the month ,,so its not unusual to have paid your suppliers for materials months before you get paid yourself
Amazingly well presented. And dead in line with the facts put forward by Joe Bloggs and Konstantine (Inside Russia) - nice work Paul
I argued with my younger brother this same issue long ago. He claimed that wars created wealth. I claimed that they just cost money. Dept rises. It's a false rise in prosperity. I knew I was correct!
Wars do not create wealth overall but they can redistribute wealth.
Many wars lead to increased demand and a redistribution of economic resources. This can have positive effects for some people.
@@hermes7587this is true. Not just wars but other times of crisis as well. I was working for a lab during the 2008 financial crash that did lots of government contracts. Stimulus spending meant that I was working generous overtime and making more money than ever while my rent was going down. But nobody should use my experience to argue that the 2008 crisis was good for the economy or for people generally.
The only reason why the United States did so well post-World War 2 was because they had no external competition since half the world was in rubble. Companies like apple make so much more than even the top five military industrial complex companies combined. The rich would rather get rich off of Apple, than get rich off of Raytheon.
You are not correct; what wars do is destroy/eliminate infrastructure, population and so on. Perhaps, the analogy of a forest fire explains it best; the forest is destroyed but the earth is fertilized and there enormous and rapid, vigorous regrowth and new growth.
Wars and countries/economies recovering from it are a bit like (self-inflicted) pain: It'll feel great once you stop hurting yourself, making the pain go away - but you'd have been much better off if you hadn't started to self-inflict any pain in the first place.
Anyone who thinks that wars create prosperity should just look at aerial shots of European cities like my hometown of Cologne in mid 1945, photos of what the Western Front looked like from the air in 1918 or Hiroshima in 1946.
One of the best analysis I've heard this year of the Russian economy.
Because it confirms all of your hopes
@@JohnnyFuckupSince nobody else wants to provide other feedback, we will go with that.
@@myc0p something can exist even if you're unable to see it
@@side2k Russians can't see their $300 billion of frozen Russian assets in Western banks. +15₽ for your cup of copium
@@side2k I bet you got some proof from the other side, but not willing to share.
I'm very glad to see someone from Wet to have so profound knowledge about Russian economy, what happened there in 90's and showing those parallels to what happens today. You are so on point, but not even many russians understand that
like none
profound knowledge? lmao this guy never reads an article, never sources anything and obviously doesnt follow the war beside major mainstream media headlines. Only thing he wants is to try to use this conflict to build an audience and make a living on the people who come here to have their hopes reinforced. He tells pro ukrainians what they want to hear but he doesnt really make an effort to make any sort of quality content. He is out to make a quick buck on eastern europeans dying and killing each other .. What a guy, no?
I'm glad you are an a rare exceptions that joined the delusion squad. Keep up and don't loose your pink glasses.
@@danielkirpichnikov2007 And you are?
Nothing similar to 90s, when Russia was actually surrendering by own will. At contrary, nowadays is far from any kind of despair or withdrawal attitudes
You are correct in all that you said. The sanctions were a gut shot not a double tap, and we needed time for the regime to bleed out. But I contend that it is finished regardless of any lifting of the sanctions. The Russian economy has been destroyed, and it will take at least 20 years to recover to pre-2022 levels of prosperity.
Your second sentence sounded like Germany? Many would say the Russian Economy is indeed "in tatters".
I find it hard to believe any western companies would invest there, ever again, considering it has showed its true face and cannot be trusted.
I don't think they'll ever reach pre-2022 levels of prosperity, due to lack of investments and horrific demographic future.
One thing that bugs me, how is it supposedly only the US that have a say in sanctions? "US will lift sanctions with Trump" etc.
I agree with you and like your analogies, but Western sanctions have been too gradual and not comprehensive enough. More could have been done, and quicker. Current sanctions have been like a tourniquet applied to an arm or a leg. That tourniquet should have been applied to their neck. Of course, Europeans were concerned about inflation and economic shocks arising from the sudden loss of energy and raw materials imports from Russia, so that is understandable, but more can be done. Both military aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia have been only half-measures so far. While Russia is bleeding out, we must not forget that Ukraine is, as well. Time is of the essence.
@@mddell24 It is in tatters and being patched up with some really poor thread…
@@stevea9604 Gold thread is mostly used when celebrating good times.
You're a good teacher. Thank you for explaining it.
In the future, people will ask:
How did Russia go bankrupt?
Slowly, then suddenly.
Lol, seethe harder
Bankruptcy is when you cannot meet your debt obligations. Ukraine is more likely to go bankrupt before Russia does. Russia has more than enough resources to meet its financial needs. Denying a country the ability to trade its goods and resource then stating that it is bankrupt as a result is just bollocks.
@@vfclists That's only half the truth. Yes, you are bankrupt if you can't pay your dept obligations. But the thing is, governments can decide to simply void depts others own to them, and that is a lot more likely to happen for Ukraine than for Russia. Just an example, the Sovietunion didn't had to pay for the equipment they got via Lend-Lease in full. The US simply said after the war "pay us that amount and we are good."
Also, what ressources has Russia beside Gas and Oil that really can make them money?
@@shi01ask china and north korea, especially china who decided to just say fuck the west with it's manufacturing industry that depends on the west. but let me guess you're smarter than all those countries in brics.
Just like America and Europe...lol!
For those not living in the US: 401K is a personal pension account
Will it exist in 20 years?
@@rosschops9509will the stock market exist in 20 years? If so, yes, 401Ks will exist. It’s essentially pre-taxed income being invested into the market to be withdrawn and taxed as income after you retire.
Thanks for the clarification, here in the UK we'd be calling that a private pension (as opposed to the public one).
@@rosschops9509 A 401K is a tax envelope that is massively used by the top 5% of Americans -- income wise.
Do you think Washington will piss them off?
@@benedictearlson9044 a.k.a functioning pension (as opposed to the doomed to fail one).
An excellent account of the effect of inflation and its deliberate use by criminal governments with reference to what this means for the war in our European neighborhood.
You are good at it, engaging and also right. Saying as a Ukrainian with an economic background.
Printing more rubles....hasn't America been printing money for decades and kicking the can down the road?
A country can increase the amount of currency in circulation without negative effects as long as it has the ability to also increase supply of goods and services.
The problem for Russia is that it CAN´T do this, because the economy is overheating and there is a shortage of workers. This WILL lead to inflation.
That's a good point and the United States is behaving badly with regard to the degree that its debt is growing faster than its economy is growing.
However if it gets to a point where its debt is growing at 97% of the growth of the economy than the debt will become smaller in relation to the total economy every year.
as of May 2022, Russia can't 'print currency' but if they are mining gold, that makes new money..
@@saltyyankee5149 The Russian central bank has started to buy government bonds (nobody else wants them). This increases the amout of currency in circulation and is commonly referred to as "printing money".
Gold mining is a non-issue in a modern economy. There is simply not enough gold in comparision to the size of an industrial economy. This is the main reason why there are no more gold-backed currencies.
But the russian economy is less than a tength of the size ,,,the 10 biggest companies in the world are american ,,,specifically money printing only happemed during the mess after covid to kickstart a flat economy ,,,Government borrowing against bonds is a universal way to keep the wheels rolling ,,us europeans are experts at it lol🤣
I'd love to watch a discussion between you and Jake Broe. Please!
Perfect assessment Paul. My wife, who grew up in Russia, is there now and everything "looks" honkey dory. Prices did go up however. Shops are full but only in the weekend there are customers. Putin is now threatening with his ICBMs and what not but the real problem is the economy. When he talks about "destroying the Russian culture" it actually means, destroying the economy. The phrase which always is valid: It's the economy stupid!
Shops being full on weekends means that people are working.
I don't know why these channels are continuing to argue about economic collapse. They first claimed that sanctions would destroy it within a year, after that, it was imminent collapse and now they're saying "the economy will collapse in the foreseeable future ( < 2-5 years). This is justification after the fact for a strategy that had no real effect on the war.
Russia was unfortunately prepared to conduct the war and handle the sanctions.
@@Rotwold I think thats not an accurate assesment ,,,The collapse has happened already with hundreds of buinesses leaving your country and the tax rubles that went with them ,,,Oil and gas that can only be sold illegally at vast discount in India and China wont sustain an entire economy ,,,youve survived because your economy is massive compared to Ukraine who your fighting but tiny in world terms
The next two months is going to be very interesting for Russia.
Yeah, people said this two years ago.
@@Al1987ac and was it not?
@@masterbeethoven8209 Not really. Prices are up, but I think that's true for anywhere in the world.
@@Al1987ac Well it's not just that; 2 years ago the situation was pretty turbulent in Russia - we saw the adjustment of key rates, implemented measures to prevent capital flight, the imposing of forex repatriation requirements etc.
Id say they were relatively interesting times.
@@masterbeethoven8209 I mean that's pretty abstract stuff.
I remember people saying Russia will be isolated, Russians will be scraping for buckwheat by the summer, Russia will be balkanized, etc. And nothing happened.
* Unless you live at the border. Then it's been a shitshow.
half of that war chest is frozen in western banks. and currently being slowly given to Ukraine haha
European banks will never do this, otherwise they will lose all investors. so Ukraine will not receive Russian money just like Crimea
Ukraine is getting the interest from those accounts in the form of a loan
Russia (not that you'll hear this broadcast far and wide) pretty much sacked off their holdings of US treasury bonds back in 2018 preferring gold. And when you have as many natural resources as Russia, including the chunk of eastern Ukraine under their control that's rich in natural resources, the money that's been seized is very small beer.
Ukraine, win or lose, is absolutely screwed for decades to come. It will be a debtor nation, with a huge amount of its younger population choosing to leave for more prosperous climes.
@@klawlor3659 yah whatever more bot lies
@@johnwalsh4857 bit of a ukro fanboy eh? Aww bless you how sweet 🤣
I totally agree Paul!
I like your comments very much! ❤❤❤❤
Greetings from Germany 🇩🇪😀🇺🇸
Greetings from Oklahoma. What part of German are you from?
@unclefester4626 I'm from Karlsruhe on the Rhine. North of Strasbourg, our European 🇪🇺😀♥ capital. But I'm busy all over the 🌎 Greetings from Kigali, Ruanda.
I love how you explain things. So clear and easy to understand. I hope your channel grows a lot, you deserve it!
Thanks SO MUCH
The city-state I call the Moscow-St Petersburg axis is also using their countries acquired by conquest is using them as cannon fodder. The average Moscow citizen does not feel the results of the killing going on in Ukraine. Moscow has always prospered, when it prospered, was always at the expense of of the rest of the vast area called Russia, all of which was a union that was not a union and now a federation that is not a federation.
Ural mountains is pretty good line for two kinds of Russia
@@_unknown_guy You don't need to go that far to feel the difference. Just traveling a short distance from two major cities would be enough.
When your black market currency has been - and from what I can tell, still is - more valuable than your official currency, you never really had a large savings account, let alone a strong economy.
And for those curious, look up this history of the Tu-22. Its most famous nickname, one that was given to it by the Russians, gives it away: "Supersonic Booze Carrier."
Maybe Tucky can go back and buy some more groceries to help support their economy.
And stay there
Tuckyo Rose
Watch Sanctioned Ivan's video "the car Tucker Carlson loves". It gets quite hilarious.
A lot of the same groceries would still be there that were on shelves when Tucker last visited. PS Vlad was willing to extend an offer of citizenship to Tuck, but withdrew it once he heard Tuck laugh 😂
A guy in Utah is telling me about the russian economy. There are plenty of other people that talk about this and more than likely this guy uses them for his information. there is a guy in Tashkent who is probably a source.
Not needing to watch the video, but reading the comments, my question to you. Do these sources and parrots distinguish "Russia" from the "Russian Federation"?
Russia, (West of Ural) with Moscow and Petersburg spend the money from natural resources and most of the money goes to corrupt oligarchs and their corrupt cronies in the military, and other "shared services". Nothing to the development of the federation. Nothing to "the people".
As to Toshkent, Uzbekistan, the question is how independent it has become since 1991. And what democratic values are held up in there.
After the start of the SMO, maybe up to a million younger Russian men have fled the federation or Russia to far away, in order to not go to the killing fields. These all must have been intelligent enough to do so, educated enough, and have money enough to bribe themselves across the border, and build a new life abroad. That brain drain and money drain in itself already is a long term wound that will hurt for a long time still to come. A part of these men lives outside Russia and now tells the new locals that they are from Ukraine.
indian rupee = 0.012 US dollars
russian ruble = 0.0094 US dollars
The Ruble is worth the same as 1 sheet of 2ply toilet paper. Give it 6 months you will need a wallet full of Rubles to buy a single sheet.
cheaper to use the ruble as the TP :)
@@FloydThePink old vlad finding out he cant beat economics soon the canon fodder will want to be paid in dollars instead of worthless rouble and that is when the implosion of the military machine will start
@@FloydThePink at 140 to 1 yea cheaper to use the trash money lol
I just at the conversion rate, and it reminded me of the expression:
What is the difference between the US Dollar and the ruble? About a dollar.
A penny is more valuable than the ruble right now.
Maybe switch to monopoly money next? 🤔😂
I think inflation is another reason why people spend their money as quickly as possible. Most people understand that it will not be worth a lot in short time.
Inflation is the same in western countries because they print dollars and send to Ukraine. Houses prices, rent, food, everything doubled (100%) in last three years and salaries increased 20%.
@@birdsgrove you make it sound like all the money printed goes to ukraine... 😒
that's the bitch of inflation. you want to buy now and not later, but that ups demand and exacerbates the inflation.
it's true for deflation too for the opposite reason. Your money is worth more over time, so you save it more aggressively. Everyone saves, nobody buys anything, prices go down.
@@birdsgrovethat’s not how either inflation or aid to Ukraine work. US inflation was in large part due to over-generous stimulus (and tax cuts) by both the Trump and Biden administrations during and immediately after the pandemic.
Sending our hand-me-down military equipment to Ukraine is mostly unrelated.
@@ebrim5013 That's what they told you, but 100 billion of dollars is spent somewhere and destroyed. It must come from somewhere. someone must earn it to be destroyed.
Brilliant, informative, direct, and most importantly accurate. Thank you very much for me to gain understanding and comprehension. No one could have said it better than you. Ty bro
Most people also don't seem to understand how tariffs work, but they will very soon...
I doubt it, Trump has promised to lift sanctions on Russia.
Nobody will pay shit and the economy will cripple......
tariffs work, the reason tariff is imposed is to balance a trade deficit, you select the products you want to impose tariffs. Southe korea is a success story of imposing tariffs
Putin has turned up the rubble printing machine to its maximum! He's printing rubbles like toilet paper.
Greetings from a Portuguese guy, living in Germany and watching your video from Seoul Korea!
could be true but when I googled 'putin printing money' I only got the mess that Kamala and Biden created along side articles on BRICS. I'm certain their import economy is impossible, but because of socialism under the ussr and the poverty in recent memory, they are more culturally ready to go without than we are.. I'm curious if the Russian currency is a FIAT currency like ours or if it's backed with something..
Obrigado!
Not yet, but it's the start if things stay the same
usa prints dollars as shit paper for many years already.
You mean Ruble, rubble is what he's turning Ukraine into :(
Which nation invented Potjemkin Villages again?
exactly!
Andorra?
Which "nation"? This myth was invented by some german diplomate.
It would be funny if it weren't so sad to see this ongoing calling the kettle black and rejoicing about Putin's imminent downfall. Keeps the European sheeple happy and blind to the backdraft on their economy from the US instigated economic sanctions on Russia. Just look at the German miracle and British prosperity.
The same holds true for the Chinese economy today. In the West, we tend to think that institutions and government behave the same way in authoritarian countries as here.
the current situation in Russia eerily similar to Russia in World War I. What did come out of Russia when that war over, communism.
This is a civil war from the Russian perspective. Not our business. Did you care in all the years Ukraine was a puppet state? So why care now?
It is arguable that Russia has ever been 'communist'. It has always been run by murderous gangsters right from the time that the Romanovs were murdered.
Yeah, communists in Russia also like to talk about WW1. Wagner did turn to Moscow though
The Russian revolution was primarly an uprising against the Czar and his corrupt and oppressive regime.
The communists happened to be a popular movement at the time and the German Empire was so "kind" to ship Lenin from his exile in Switzerland back to Russia in a bid to saw chaos in Russia.
If the current Russian regime collapses something completely different might emerge from the ashes.
The problem is that no sane person wants to see a civil war in an nuclear armed nation.
WWI was completely different story 😂
Russia's contract for gas sales to Hungary and other eastern European states ends at the end of this year. Ukraine has continued to allow those deliveries for political purposes, but will not renew the contract. Russian gas sales to Europe will go almost to zero at that point. Furthermore, there are still western sanctions that could be applied but have not. For example, if the world's democracies could prohibit any merchant vessel that visits a Russian port from entering the ports of sanctioning countries upon pain of confiscation. The same goes for commercial aircraft. This would immediately reduce the value of any vessel or aircraft used in trade with Russia and serve to make international trade even more difficult for Russia.
It fact the Ukraine uses Russian gas supplied through it's territory, pretending that Russian gas pumped to Hungary, and the Ukraine is buying different gas from the West. No real gas for Ukraine from the West if Ukrainian regime stops pumping Russian gas.
Зачем им это делать, когда они сами же на этом зарабатывают большие деньги. Пора уже понять, что всем абсолютно пофиг на войны и смерти, лишь бы сами они были при деньгах, только раньше это работало на их стороне, а нынче это работает против них, НО от этого они никогда не откажутся, таково нутро капитализма - нет неподкупных людей, просто им мало предлагали денег..
lmao, China would just use other ships to trade with westerners than the ones trading with Russians, end of story. Your plan won't work.
Wow, thanks for the head's up 🫣 the dragging out payments, so you rack up debt is just awful, but makes complete sense.
Cheers paul 👍
This was an excellent analysis! Thanks for the hard work! Very well presented. People tend to be so shortsigthted!!
Ruble fell 3% just on Friday. Back in the 90s Sweden tried to do the same as russia and buy it's own currency, it's very costly. Sweden took up loans to buy it's own currency. In the end it failed and the currency got it it's low valuation BUT the 30-40 billion USD in loans was still there. So in hindsight it would have been better to not defend the currency and just let it get the valuation it have.
Now russia is much bigger country then Sweden and this was the 90s and russia been buying it's own currency with saved capital instead of loans. How much can they have wasted away on doing it? No one knows and no one even counts it in when estimating on how much money russia have left.
After the russian collapse we will know. Maybe 100 Billion USD?
Excellent exposition. Many parallels to USA financial policies too.
At last a real expert in the US talking meaningful things!
Nah, just repeating the same silly narrative "Russia is about to collapse" they are repeating last ~25 years.
Talking bullshit
I mean they already started printing money...1 ruble is already worth less than 1 cent.
It’s not about printing genius
And so what? Tell me why do you think dollar is so important? It is not
The head of russias central Bank, Mrs Nabiullah stated this week that russia will run out of all financial resources next year.....that means current budget, National Welfare fund, money in foreign banks like china, gold reserves etc. Then the army and pensions stop getting paid.....then the torches and pitchforks come out. Besides the rouble crashing food shortages, there are other indicators.....russia is cutting wounded benefits they had been giving out......many russians arent getting death benefits, as russia wont inform them their family member has passed.
Russiand are used to not getting paid for 6 months. So i doubt pitchforks will come out.
And russia is probably selective in who the reduce payments to. Widowers and pensioneers are not gonna be a threat if they come out with torches.
Accurate, timeline and all.
Just switch "Russia" to "Ukraine" and it seems about right. Russia is autarky - with own food and resources. And a support of the most of the countries of the world. US and its colonies is just a small portion of it.
Nabiullina told Putin that his cupboard is BARE already. She is able to hold things together with chewing gum and baling wire.
@@dv8ug Holy hll. Zelenskyy is getting FREE wealth from the West. He's able to pay his government payroll WITHOUT collecting taxes. It's NO WONDER that the Ukrainian elites are in Wonder Land. They've never seen anything like it.
This is why the Caribbean is afloat with Ukrainian mega-yachts as I type. No-one is crazy enough to leave their war profits within sight of Ukraine.
Nice review, Thank You. It's quite important to explain these aspects of the Economy of russia. Only few steps to pass and the situation will be clear for everyone
If the Russians economy manages to survive then it would be described as a miracle
Economy is a fundamental part of every human society. The Russian economy will not disappear but it will get worse, very worse for the Russians.
Basically it will feel to them as if the 1990s have returned, but this time there will be no foreign aid.
Foreign companies wil be very reluctant to invest in Russia again after Putin has stolen most foreign assests in Russia.
It will
it already does, lmao.
It became stronger and more self-dependent btw
People said the same thing in 2022, that Russia was about to collapse any day. 3 years later, no lessons learned, because why change your tune when you can cope instead.
Mortgage rates in Russia start at 28.1% now and these are official numbers from banks.
lol "official" numbers. Home buyers probably showed up to the bank and were told that the "unofficial" interest rate is in fact higher.
Sberbank.
@@anjafarki wonder if the real estate market is crashing. At 28 i am guessing less than 10% of the population gets bank loan approved.
No need for them to realize or understand, banks should deny loan applications all day
It's the rate I was paying for a mortgage in the U.K. 40 years ago.
@@aberavon No you weren't. Historical interest rate charts are freely available.
My mother had a theory about war when I was a kid, “If you can’t feed them, send them off to war” She kicked me out of the house when I was 15yrs old.
Your mom was an ass
And now….you’re rotting your meaningless life away in cyberspace leaving meaningless, stupid retorts on message boards. Life has passed you by Rodger.
well, looks like she was double-braindead since soldiers need extra rations compared to civilians. War is cumbersome, you know.
I think we are there already .. Rubl lost 5% against USD in last week alone.
It wasn't Russian ruble. It was us dollar rising above other currencies.
@@kotenoklelu3471 Nope. Against Yuan rubl lost 4.5% in a week.
Does the value of USD affect anything Russia buys with their currency?
@robertp457 imported goods and if produced stuff have imported stuff in it. So it's inflationary.
Excellent insightful non-hyperbolic presentation…. Very well done Paul I am impressed……
Thanks Paul. I almost forgot a story that a Russian friend told me ages ago, that her boss would hold back income payments for six months. It seemed a little weird then, almost unbelievable. Most people in my country (Australia) would simply quit if their monthly salary was delayed.
That's why you can not really understand the fact that pressuring on Russians just makes us stronger. You get weaker and your spirit is dissolving in useless bs you taught to believe like so called gender science
Thank you Paul! Your videos are not just an improvisation of common news but your own deep and detailed analysis of the situation!👍👍
It's like the war in Bosnia-Hercegovina in 1991-1995. The serbian people had to pay for the aggression via an extreme inflation. It costed a couple of millions of dinari to eat lunch at Mc Donalds...
I remember when we flew over these places, it was dangerous to fly over it during that time.
There are no mcdonalds in Russia anymore 😂
@@poleteli Same infrastructure, mostly same supply chains, partially the same people who worked there before and last but not least: same know-how. Yeah. No McD anymore.
Learn to apply the difference of de-facto and de-jure mate.
Well done - mention economics and money inflation you loose 85% of the general population - this is well done as for those 85% this really explains at a level they can understand -
I just listened to 'inside Russia" , and Konstantin said their butter is so expensive that it is now having to be kept in locked display cabinets!
It's just one shop in Russia. In most shops of Russia butter is in full display
@@kotenoklelu3471are you denying the fact that inflation is not affecting the prices of dairy goods in Russia?
@@ChronicCraftsman it's affecting. But most people still can afford it. Even if they can't, nobody will notice. As Russian advertisement of protein shakes say, Russian old people die from protein deficiency. So basically they are slowly starving eating only pasta and potatoes and it didn't bother anybody in the West and in Russia. Screams will happen only if workers will start losing conscience from hunger on the job. And maybe when you can't conscript boys because they are too malnourished. It happened during 90s.
@ChronicCraftsman you are talking like every Russian could afford butter before. And that's wasn't the case before. Less people can afford it now and what's from that. They will margarine and it wouldn't be even in inflation numbers. Because inflation is about increase in cost of living not cost of goods. If butter gone up 30% and margarine gone up 10% inflation of cost of living is 10% because you can use margarine instead of butter
In many shops in USA, most of the value food is behind locks.
I am from one of the countries what was occupied by soviets. Before collapse actually people had lot of rubles... but you could not buy anything... there was nothing to buy and if there was there the inflation was daily... sounds similar?
Russia is not collapsing, stop dreaming. At least now. It's pretty moderate inflation. In the beginning of the 90s Russia had hyperinflation.
@@kotenoklelu3471 potatos went up 74%, Butter is sold behind closed doors and the ruble lost 20% value only in the last3 months, yes, pretty moderate.
@giannimotzer4789 by Russian standards it's moderate. It's not developed country after all. Everybody still remembers 90s when inflation and interest rates were much higher.
@@kotenoklelu3471 "hyperinflation was in the 90s". this time it will be a lot worse. It's just starting.
@@giannimotzer4789 Potatoes cost from 17 to 35 rubles in stores today. What 74% rise in price are you talking about? The oil ranges from 160 to 400 depending on the manufacturer. Idiots suffered nonsense about closed cabinets based on incomprehensible videos. I have not seen a shortage or locked shelves in any store. But you probably know better than the Russians. Funny
Thanks!
Thanks so much Eric!
The trick of the oligarchs was new to me. Thanks for your good work.
Trump, elon, bezos. New American oligarchs
I will tell you a sad story russia will fight and fight if people will not remove the current government. The economy doesn't matter if government wants to fight and people do nothing.
Russia's military has been proven to be incompetent. They have lost a great deal of their equipment. Their troops are poorly trained and poorly led. Whatever high tech arms they still produce are dependent upon evading sanctions to acquire Western technology. Both the Russian military and the Russian economy are in shambles. If Western sanctions had been even quicker and more comprehensive, and western military aid to Ukraine had also been quicker and more comprehensive with fewer restrictions, this war might already have ended. Putin keeps the war going because he will lose his head when it is over.
The people had the choice to remove the current government in the last election. 28 political parties fought a hotly contested election,whereby several parties were elected to the state Duma. Most people back their President, who let's face it is a much better (and sober) leader than his predecessor!
@@klawlor3659 Was this the same election in which two popular independent opposition candidates for president were refused access to the ballot and candidates from some other parties endorsed Putin BEFORE the election?
You mispelled Ukraine as Russia
@@markalexander832 если эти идиоты не смогли набрать положенного количества подписей в свою сторону, что бы смогли баллотироваться в выборах, то это лишь их вина, и вообще, кое где есть только 2 кандидата, и никто ведь не переживает..
Really good video!
Pretty much how I was trying to explain it to my friend the other day, but I didn't explain it nearly as elegantly.
Will forward this video for people.
Economic sanctions won't show it self right away, it's all hidden under layers of actions a state can take to temporary minimise, but eventually start to show but can take long time.
I agree with your thesis.
You said one thing which is the most profound.
"Putin thought the invasion would last a few days and the cost would be paid by the resources acquired in Ukraine".
This is correct.
That is why they are concentrating their efforts in Southern Ukraine where all the coal is and the newly discovered oil and gas fields are.
They were concerned about the Orange revolution and that it might encourage Russians to do the same and also these new oil and gas fields would compete with what they were selling into Europe. The fields are closer and much cheaper to extract.
Yes it's power but under that it's money. Money they have and intended stealing. They are just a pack of theves who kill people for money.
Plus they would have have had all the assets and facets of a pretty decent prewar economy plus holding land on the other side of the black sea
The salt lake background is also for Putin turning salty.
I just googled you and learned that you are a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve. It made perfectly sense to me.... but then i saw the picture of the guy who died in 1932 😅 But for a moment it actually made sense.
🇮🇱 Up to their old tricks 🐍
Brilliant analysis of the situation in Russia currently. Russia is going to have a very bleak time for at least the next 20 years.
How? It has a growing immigration rate, huge natural resources and has wider trade links than ever before. If anything the West is going to be down the sewer before Russia hits the skids pal. If you've visited the UK lately you'll see what I mean!
@@klawlor3659just wait, if Putin uses a nuke...
@@andybales7318 He's shown incredible restraint so far, bearing on mind the tabloids love to label him as "mad". I'm more worried about our money grubbing regime, after all the number of countries we have bullied and terrorized over the last 50 years is beyond the pale!
Thanks Paul, very helpful
Excellent presentation, Paul. I'm an old man living in my native Ireland. I'll look at my economy and see if I can assist you in any way..
👏👏👏👏👏 You have a very professional approach and a very accurate analysis of the geopolitical situation! I applaud you standing
I guess that leaves only one question: who tf is Paul Warburg and why should we assume he knows what he is talking about?
Either the argument makes sense, or it doesn't. Who says it is barely relevant.
@@lugaidster This isn't a Logic 101 course, the dude is providing supposed insider information regarding Russia's economy and inner workings
My guess is he is a paid propagandist.Could be being paid by Ukraine,US or Euro intelligence agencies
@@theMosen the interest rate is public knowledge. It's not insider knowledge. Whether or not his argument is sound depends on your reasoning about what the impact of such a high rate of interest rate is.
Most of his points are arguable, but you can have a conversation about the facts without having to take him at his word.
Kind of similar to the phony Credit Card economy we have in the USA.
It took 18,000 years for Lake Bonneville to dry up; it might take another 18,000 years for the Russian economy to feel the effects of the war...
Russian economy is hurting. Very high inflation, high interest rates, ruble losing much of its value. Trump will further damage the Russian economy by providing more oil and gas from the United States. Meanwhile Ukraine keeps taking out more of Russias oil and gas production and storage facilities.
Trump will also open the Keystone pipeline which will provide much more oil from Canada. Russian oil demand will fall dramatically and deny them of income they need to fund the war.
LOL, Russian troll much? Or maybe just MAGA disability? Thanks for telling everyone how clueless you are.
Their price of butter has skyrocketed, they now lock it up like shampoo in an American store.
@@ericwilliams1659 You have to be braindead to actually believe this. People have been crying the same things in the west in 2022 when the ruble spiked higher than it did now. And yet 2 years later Russia is no worse for wear at all. Meanwhile I can look at any european country outside of like poland and bulgaria or the usa and see only decline and ruin.
Very interesting about why payments 'delayed'. When I heard various reports about withholding of wages in Russia, I thought it was very strange. But makes sense now. Thanks for the insight.
Incredible information. Totally accurate ❤
1 US cent is more than ruble :)
And they still have Kopets, with 100 times less value than a Rubel.
dang kopets are a complete waist than
@adamosborne9938 I know only 50 kopets as coins, so maybe they stopped producing smaller coins now.
What can you buy for your 1 cent? Your american pride only, nothing more.
Great simple description that we all can understand. Good job.
I feel sorry for the Russian people as much as I do for the Ukrainian people in this war. I feel sorry for common man dragged into this war on both sides. It pains me when I hear people talk about innocent Russians getting sent into the meat grinder and silly people in the comments celebrating it. The majority are innocent people who don’t want to fight. Russian people aren’t the enemy PUTIN IS. The Kremlin are the enemy!
Why celebrate the death of an innocent?
If you’re not drafted you're coerced into the war through threats and propaganda. It’s not so easy to rise up and stand up for what’s right when you’re surrounded by doom. Some people in the comments wouldn’t stop a common thief stealing from an old lady in public and probably just watch. Resisting the war is harder said than done. I pray it ends soon and both countries can build and prosper without people like putin running them. No more dictators!
and the whitehouse
No, _russian people_ are the enemy. Putin is just a product of its society, whose brains he and others have been bombarding with propaganda (it is a degradation spiral). Man, do your research if interested, just do not be offended, pls. My own relatives from Russia (who were kind to us before the war) were calling and saying that we, ukrainians, are 'fascists' and that we deserve to be hit with all those rockets.
Also, this might surprise you and other westerners: russians are claiming that they fight with United States. Yes, kinda with Ukraine, but because it is backed by US. They screamed it so hard for years, that they seem to have believed in their own buill$hit. And that their goal is now Europe and ultimately US.
Some are clueless mobilized. Large majority go there for a quick buck and they are fully aware what they would be doing. They are not innocent at all.
I think you would be surprised to know how many people in Russia in brainwashed by propaganda (one of the best in the world) to believe they NEED to fight for Kremlin, because Kremlin “fights for good of Russia”
So, can u help me to move to the US?
Great analysis reporting. I'm 75 and have lost everything or I would contribute
Always interesting and well informed. And always great back drops🙂
CCP is watching and learning from Putin.
Learning what?
@@mddell24that countries can get away with invading neighbors.
@@playedout148 When I was in Ukraine, it was all Russian. The problem arose when Russia thought 'OK let us be neighborly' and let "The Ukraine" (it was a region not a country) govern it's self. But then Europe got greedy.
USA business schools teach this same ^hit. Make your clients pay fast,, but pay your suppliers slow. It makes your suppliers into a bank. At the local level, this has real impacts on contractors.
Thank you for focusing on this topic and your concise explanation.
I wish we had guys like this teaching economics and history class in public high schools in the US.
Most of this is basic economics but... maybe transferring some critical thinking skills... we'd have a more educated electorate than the absolute naive joke of poorly educated voters we have now.
This is by design
Republicans don't want educated voters capable of critical thinking. Keeping them ignorant and waving shiny objects in their face make them easier to manipulate and mislead.
Burning through your savings eventually has consequences.
The word here is "eventually". As in 10 more years. Until then, the war continues.
@grahortarg9933 The Russian people will revolt before that. Meanwhile sanctions will only increase. Russia will be setback for decades.
Putin will not last another year if sanctions are continued and increased. Releasing all of the frozen Russian assets to Ukraine will obviously be the death knell.
@@grahortarg9933 It is highly unlikely that Russia can keep up this pace of war for more than a year or two.
Thank you so much for all the information! It's always good to be informed!
Get informed, not enflamed.
@jodycarter7308 when I get informed I get inflamed! Lol
As Russia's disposable income falls and prices increase, the Russians replace everyday goods with inferior goods. In Economics, this is a known phenomenon. Inferior goods demand rises as people have less income and have hard times. Russian food quality can be measured on the food quality index as some of the worst in the world. This subsequently has an effect on human health in Russia. If Russians want to make the world a better place, they must be aware of the impact on their long-term health and lives caused by economic disruptions from this geopolitical event. If they serve their families inferior goods at the culinary table because of falling income and rising prices, this has unintended consequences for future generations.
Just look on the Russian supermarket shelves and compare it to the much poorer US and European goods choice. You are the third world countries compare to Russia in that sense.
@@AAaa-wu3el Ruzzian supermarkets have shelves full of stuff maybe, stuff I wouldn't even feed my dog at a price that only the oligarchs can afford 😂😂😂😂
@@gregorydesleskine3413 Russian shelves not "may be" but full of goods. And everyone is "oligarch" in Russia if they are buying it.
@@AAaa-wu3el perhaps they like eating North Korean dog meat and Chinese snake soup. The cost of butter is up 60% and potatoes 74%, and overall inflation is 60%, and you're telling me everybody is happy. Only in ruzzia 😂😂😂😂
you sound like butthurt Ukrainian that can't buy anything in his supermarket and prays to Bandera that Russians have worse situation.
Russia learned from the soviet union days of spending. The war is only costing them 3% of their GDP. They're not running out anytime soon.
Unless of course they are lying about the gdp numbers.. which is hilariously likely. Furthermore you don't see conditions like up like creator stated unless it's closer to the truth
@kgmindustries8121 they're not.
That is incorrect. The Russian GDP is around $2 trillion and DOD estimates they are spending around $211 billion a year on the war or more than 10% of GDP. This war is incredibly costly, as demonstrated by the massive casualties and documented equipment losses Russia has sustained. In addition they have lost access to their most lucrative markets, and have to pay higher prices for imports to get around sanctions. This war is a huge drag on their economy.
@underdog578 we haven't received a single accurate figure from Western sources. From causilties, money spent, etc.... all highly inflated numbers for their information war.
@@underdog578130 not 211
Very intelligent and interesting video. Props to you for such a thorough analysis.