2024 Oscar Predictions - Director/Screenplay | October 2023
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I don't think The Holdovers is a directory movie, and I also don't think they're gonna nominate all men again. I'm between Triet and Song for number 5
Agreed but I think it’s Zone that will miss out
all of alexander payne's best director nominations can all be considered not directory, yet for all those best picture movies he got in
@@marcochen9117 That's true. I could end up being wrong, but I still think one of the ladies are gonna get a slot, and I don't see Glazer missing it
It's crazy to remember how there was a time in Oscars history that animated movies could get nominated for screenplay. Feels borderline impossible now
Ehh, I love Spider-Verse, but the screenplay’s “canon event” storyline was kind of weak and poorly explained, so I don’t have a problem with it missing screenplay (especially considering how tough the category is this year).
Which animated movie will you nominate for this year's Oscars?
Inside out is the latest animated movies to nominated for screenplay at the Oscars
Let’s be real I love Spider-Verse but it’s SCREENPLAY is not one of the things that is Oscar- worthy about it
Back when Pixar made good movies
I really like Barbie but hell no to screenplay. I rather have Holdovers Anatomy of a Fall or Past Lives instead even the 5th one. I will act like that uncle watching a football game.
I let out a EEK of excitement when I got this notification
Oh
I wouldn't underestimate Greta Gerwig for Director
I’m honestly shocked how you guys haven’t locked Nolan in to win Director. To me it’s totally obvious, even if something like Poor Things (or Killers) wins Best Picture.
have you seen the praise nolan is getting from fellow directors?! that shit is locked up
American Fiction is also co-written by Percival Everett, a Pulitzer Prize finalist for fiction, so it makes sense that writers would love screenplay and award it accordingly.
I think Maestro will be predicted to be nominated for Screenplay and then suddenly get snubbed just like Mank, Ma Rainey, Being the Ricardos and The Whale.
It’s the least locked of the five, but the only thing I could see taking it out is Perfect Days as the Another Year-type pick. I don’t think Air will get any nominations
Brother Bro made a good point at the beginning, about The Zone of Interest being a more "relatable" with the current political landscape.
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
3. Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall
4. Celine Song - Past Lives
5. Greta Gerwig - Barbie
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Past Lives
2. Anatomy of a Fall
3. Barbie
4. Maestro
5. May December
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. All of Us Strangers
3. Poor Things
4. American Fiction
5. Oppenheimer
Seems they are predicting Screenplay nominees to be all Picture nominees. Yeah that's not happening. There is always at least one lone Screenplay nominee.
I also imagined a fun scenario: Barbie is considered Original in every awards show until the Oscars put it back in Adapted. This would make Screenplay categories very fun to predict. Barbie has won plenty of precursors for Original, but we don't how it will do in Adapted.
Triet nominated over Payne would make the director 5 so strong I wish Celine still was locked :(
I think they’re gonna put Barbie in adapted they don’t really care what you try to submit
My predictions:
Director:
1. Christopher Nolan
2. Martin Scorsese
3. Yorgos Lanthimos
4. Jonathan Glazer
5. Alexander Payne
OGS:
1. Past Lives
2. The Holdovers
3. Anatomy of a Fall
4. Barbie
5. Saltburn OR Maestro
ADS:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Zone of Interest
5. American Fiction
For Director, I feel like everybody wants Nolan to win for Oppenheimer. He's the current Martin Scorsese: Long time in the industry, made some influential movies, and he's also way too overdue. I also feel like Nolan can also win Screenplay and here's why: Nolan wrote the movie in a very Nolan-way, of course, but he took advantage on the theory of quantum mechanics and used it for the screenplay, a scene gets "shot" with another scene, and then there's the colour sequence in the court and RDJ's Black and white perspective. And Nolan wrote a screenplay in first person, not necesserely revolutionary, but very unusual. Plus, Oppenheimer has some very great written dialogues, I remind you of the "Power stays in the shadow"scene, for example. I don't have a problem with Poor Things either, excited for the new Lanthimos.
Original Screenplay, I get the point of Barbie winning Screenplay, so Gerwig and Baumbach have Oscars, but still there is Past Lives, OMG the screenplay was freakin' amazing, simple but still it hit hard. I feel like Past Lives and/or The Holdovers being more of a Screenplay winner than Barbie.
And for Gerwig in Directing, Steven Spielberg once said: "Everybody loves a winner, but nobody wants a winner." (note: that's from his hilarious reaction of being snubbed for Directing Jaws). But there's something true about it. Barbie, the billion dollar sensation of the year with so many fans around the world, will slightly be noted as "overhyped" by the director's branch probably. Same happened with Denis Villeneuve for Dune, Spielberg for Jaws. Although there's a chance for Greta Gerwig for a Director nomination, there are too many movies in her way.
But let's see, I'm pretty excited for the award season!
I still dont think the academy is going to accept WB sumbission of Barbie as an Original Screenplay, so at the time I have Barbie out of my predictions list. Everything else is pretty much what I'm thinking. I can't wait to see Poor Things this year!
HOORAY!! I LOVE YOU GUYS! You guys are one of my favorite TH-camrs so keep up the amazing content!
Wonder how many of you are interested to know how the original ending of the Descendants .. involved ME in an epic speaking role lol?
Poor Things will have its swell of momentum but the night will come back to Oppenheimer and be Nolan's.
Yayy
I think Wim Wenders has a shot, as sort of a surprise director nomination if perfect days gets in for international feature, kind of a nom similar to Paweł Pawlikowski or Thomas Vinterberg
Nolan, lanthimos, Scorsese, glazer, wenders would be my dream 5
I always look forward to these. Love the work you guys do!! Keep it up!!
Saw Killers in the theater with my Dad last Saturday. I think it's my favorite Scorsese film. Yes I mean it. It's better than Oppenheimer.
I am rooting for Poor Things to do well! It would be awesome if it could get some big wins!
I actually feel somewhat confident in having Greta Gerwig in for director
Oppenheimer has already aged so well in the course of three months, if it doesn’t win best picture dude I swear
I agree with brother bro about all of us strangers. It is in a sense similar to white tiger. Plus is that 10 for 10 on screenplay nominations and best picture? The academy loves that one screenplay heavy pick
In the last few days, I realized that ever since 12 Years a Slave won BP, any year (except for the year Spotlight won BP) we have a split in BP & Director; the film that wins the top prize gets a writing & acting prize with it (ex. Moonlight, Green Book, CODA).
My prediction 😅 and BP & Director is separated:
BP = Poor things
O.Screenplay = Barbie
Ad.Screenplay = Poor things
Director = Oppenheimer
What about everything everywhere all at once
@@damdaniel5106 Wasn’t a split year for BP & Director.
The last time the winner of BP didn’t win director or screenplay was chicago
Too much confidence in The Zone of Interest. Screenplay? That's hilarious.
YESSS! Let's go Glazer! I am rooting for The Zone of Interest!
Am I the only one who don't see Barbie as an Original Screenplay?
I think Past Lives is going to be this year's critics push, and it'll make a resurgence come major critics groups awards. Worked out super well for Drive My Car, which got into director, and TAR got over-nominated in a lot of techs that people weren't expecting prior to it sweeping critics circles.
Mostly I'm just praying for the success of Past Lives, it'd be such a shame if it was ignored this year for the hoards of oscar bait.
Past lives= women talking
@@singstreetcar5881 such a dumb take. The only good thing about Women Talking was it’s screenplay (which was great). Past Lives on the other hand is genuinely great cinema and deserves director and lead actress nominations.
@@thrawncaedusl717Women Talking’s screenplay was the worst part about the film, and Past Lives is mediocre as hell
Just a quick note but Origin is campaigning on Original screenplay
Also, I do think Priscilla should be in the top 10 for Asapted
Nolan is long overdue for an Oscar. Please give it to him already!
It’s giving me The Social Network vibes
@@harmenmoes9138Where it instead when to Tom Hooper, who also recently directed Cats
@@pksstr Yeah, that was the director of Cats
🙏
@@CRM-114 So either you're a big fan of Following (1998) or the only Nolan movie you like is Memento
Hunt, I get what you are saying about having much better depth and how that is better than having a bare cupboard. But as you said toward the end, having 11 cornerbacks is not better than having 2 CBs who are future 1st-round picks. I know we can’t have the #1 corner in the country every year, but having 11 corners on the roster doesn’t inspire confidence if none of them are good enough to compete with elite receivers. One may emerge from that group of 11, but there’s no guarantee that will happen. Seems like we have really fallen off on recruiting DBs generally, and I have to wonder why we are still thinking that leaving Corey Raymond at Florida makes sense.
I just cannot buy into the Academy letting Barbie go into Original when they made Whiplash and Moonlight go into Adapted. It just wouldn't add up.
Also, I'd say Oppenheimer's chances in screenplay are much better than 4. Let's not forget that Inception won WGA and Oppenheimer is even more critically acclaimed with more layered storytelling and even more emotion. Is it a bit cheesy sometimes? Well, some could also say Belfast was cheesy, or Jojo Rabbit, or Green Book, etc. Granted, I do not expect anywhere near as much backlash if it wins, but the Academy sometimes likes a LITTLE cheese. Oppenheimer never feels like it gets too out there.
That was 7 and 9 years ago for Moonlight and Whiplash respectively; also Barbie is a bigger movie and not based on a specific media.
@@blackguyofthesouth2161But Barbie is still adapted because the lead characters are Barbie and Ken, which are preexisting IP, which counts as adaptation. And you can't rely on the time span since Moonlight and Whiplash because there's not really any evidence to show that it makes any difference in what they consider to be Adapted or Original.
Greta Gerwig is 100% getting nominated for best director
I think Gerwig will get in over Payne.
Cat!
Saw the new trailer for Maestro and you know what, it looks pretty great. Director is crowded but Screenplay is easy to imagine
Director - I personally feel like Scorsese might have more momentum going into the season than Yorgos but that can definitely change in January. I've also been thinking about Triet being the Cannes pick instead of Glazer just because of the film's festival momentum being more stronger and the film being more accessible than Zone of Interest so I have her in now alongside the Top 3 and Payne. I want to put in Gerwig so badly but reality feels like it's setting in right now, hopefully I'm wrong lol.
OG Scr: Air definitely feels like it can break in at the end like Top Gun but we don't realize it since WGA happens afterwards, but I'm feeling like it just gets a huge wave of momentum towards the end over something like Maestro, but the same could be applied to Anatomy of a Fall.
Adapt Scr: This feels like an easy Top 4, plus something else, unfortunately I'm gonna hopedict Spiderverse until the end when I lose hope, because I feel like it. All of Us Strangers IDK if it'll actually break into the Top 5, but I do agree Zone of Interest could be very strong here for sure.
The directing branch has a strong bias against big studio commercial films. I'd expect them to nomonate Justine Triet instead of Greta Gerwig just like they did with Ruben Östland instead of Joseph Kosinski last yr.
No way Greta Gerwig misses in Director. No way. You're underestimating the respect she has earned within the Director branch, and the directors would want a woman in the ballot this year. Barbie will be the easy choice for them. If she doesn't get #1's she will be in a lot of peoples number 2 and 3. I don't have confidence in Payne.
If Lanthimos were going to win, you’d have to think he could win DGA, which he won’t
The directing branch often snubs first time directors, even when a film has strong momentum in other categories. I love to see Celine Song getting a nom but she probly won't get in unless she wins DGA or something.
Zone of Interest Screenplay is like TAR Score
My current GoldDerby predictions (as of 3.11.23):
*Best Director:* (SUPERBET)
5. Greta Gerwig (Barbie)
4. Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
3. Martin Scorese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
2. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Yeah...I just don't really see this 5 changing. Celine Song (Past Lives) has apparently left the chat, and my disbelief in The Zone of Interest and Maestro is well known. American Fiction and Anatomy of a Fall feel like more of a Screenplay movie than a Director movie to me (as you'll plainly see in my Screenplay predictions), but I guess Cord Jefferson and Justine Triet aren't fully impossible.
*Best Adapted Screenplay:* (SUPERBET)
5. Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and David Callaham (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse)
4. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
3. Cord Jefferson (American Fiction)
2. Martin Scorsese and Eric Roth (Killers of the Flower Moon)
1. Tony McNamara (Poor Things)
I'm not buying All of Us Strangers and The Zone of Interest as serious Oscar contenders. Made it my other Superbet since I just don't see what else can be nominated in this category since they frauded the clearly Adapted Barbie into the much more competitive Original category. Dumb Money is my de-facto 6# but I don't think it's gonna take off.
*Best Original Screenplay:*
5. Alex Convery (Air)
4. Justine Triet and Arthur Harari (Anatomy of a Fall)
3. Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach (Barbie)
2. David Hemingson (The Holdovers)
1. Celine Song (Past Lives)
So now that they finally took Bob Marley: One Love off this season, I had to fill the 5th spot and I put in Air since I recenly removed Viola Davis and I needed another support nomination for Air. May December is a close 6# and even Saltburn isn't fully dead yet. Not believing in any of the other contenders rn.
Scorcese is absolutely top 2. The narrative and respect for him is insane. One couldn't be in a better position to win a second Oscar.
my personal lineup
adapted screenplay:
1. American Fiction
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Oppenheimer
5. All of Us Strangers
secondaries: Spiderverse, The Killer
Original Screenplay
1. Past Lives
2. Barbie
3. The Holdovers
4. Anatomy of A Fall
5. Saltburn
secondaries: maestro, may december
director
1. Scorcese
2. Celine Song
3. Greta Gerwig
4. Emerald Fennel or Nolan
5. Yorgos Lanthimos
backrunenrs: nolan, payne
would love to see a female director get nominated this year
Would you be happy with Nahnatchka Khan (director of Totally Killer) getting the nomination, or some other 2 star movie directed by a woman getting in? If not, then advocate for who you actually want, not just a blanket group (and if all you care about is a blanket group, please understand that those interested in awarding genuine achievements are correct to not care what you want). I want Celine Song to get a nomination because I think she did a much better job directing than anyone else who is considered competitive (note: I have not seen Poor Things, The Holdovers, or Zone of Interest yet). Even if you just mean you are cheering for Gerwig, Triet, and Song, say that and I will respect your opinion a lot more.
@@thrawncaedusl717 dude what i literally just want gerwig, triet, or song to get nominated. and i don't really have to defend my statement because women are constantly overlooked in the industry especially in directing. last year there were no female directors so i'd love to see one nominated this year. you're getting upset over nothing, and the fact that when i say female director you immediately think of "2 star movies directed by women" raises some suspisions on your character cause you know damn well they're some amazing female directors in the race this year. it's like you're looking for something to be offended by. i want a female director to be nominated for an oscar this year. full stop.
@@thatforemankid2262 I take issue with it because it is an individual award, and the assumption that no five men possibly made a movie better than all three women is flawed.
Now if you have a specific five that includes one or more women, that is different. Last year, I didn’t think one of the spots should have been given to a women (well, not one of the contested spots, I’d rather any 2 star director take McDonaugh’s place) because the strongest directing jobs were genuinely by men (everyone, with the exception of one commenter I’ve seen who hated the screenplay, agrees that Women Talking’s strength was its screenplay, not its direction). This year, I really want Song in and think Triet deserves it more than most other names being discussed. Because competition is relative, and every year should be approached differently. The only reason not to do that is if you care more about outrage than awarding good performances, in which case people are right to ignore you.
@@thrawncaedusl717 i get what you're saying, i do, my point is it was just unneccessary to respond to my comment. if i'm commenting under a video about oscars predictions, you know i'm into and knowledgable on awards season. not once did i say "i hope a female director gets nominated even if the movie is bad." no. nor is that what i intended for it to come across as. i actually work in the film industry and have witnessed women constantly be disregarded even when they're work is as good as or better than a man's. the same is true for awards competitions. i just want to see a talented woman be recognized for her amazing work. that's it. and seeing the incredible directors in the race, i'm hoping this will be the year. that is all i am saying.
also i'll die on the hill that charlotte wells should've gotten nominated for aftersun, but i knew it wasn't gonna happen. but it was deserved.
@@thatforemankid2262 I appreciate that. I should have assumed you were knowledgeable, but I feel like this year especially (due partially to Barbie’s popularity and partially just to general political climate) there have been a lot of “outrage trolls” just looking for something to complain about (last week I got into an argument with one on Perri’s channel who was arguing that Gosling getting a nomination but not Robbie would be sexist, seemingly not realizing that Robbie is competing with a much tougher field and in no way in competition with Gosling). I was in a bad head space after that argument and I apologize for how I started my comment to you.
I still need to see Aftersun. It had a very brief theatrical window, then was completely unavailable until after the Oscars were already over where I live. I hope I’ll also believe it was snubbed once I see it!
i know you guys are huge zone of interest fans but im almost certain its not getting best director nod. You just know the academy will want to nominate a female director so Triet, Gerwig, Song are much more likely. Also if you think Barbie and Past Lives have a great chance of winning original then surely that means either director has more than a good chance of getting a director nomination
Zone of Interst is the obligatory Cannes nominee in director. Cold War, Parasite, Another Round, Drive My Car, Triangle of Sadness: all of them were in Cannes and managed to get Best Director nominations. This year will likely be no different as the directors branch seems determined to show how internationally focused they are.
@@benjamintillema3572 surely Cannes winner Triet more likely then?
The directors' branch has no issue with nominating 5 men, they've done it 10 out of the last 13 years, including last year. Triet or Gerwig could easily happen but this point isn't relevant.
I know it sucks, but you can't throw around statements like 'you just know the academy will want to nominate a female director'. That's simply not true. That might be what YOU want - that might be what the general public/film fans want - but the academy have shown TIME AND TIME AGAIN that they do not care about nominating an all-male director lineup (including literally the most recent year). Gerwig, Triet - even Song - could absolutely get it, but them being female won't affect their chances with the director's branch as it is.
I just feel one of either the biggest box office phenomenon of the year (Barbie), a Palme D’Or winner (AOAF) or the most acclaimed indie of the year (past lives) is more likely to get a director nod ahead of zone of interest which I’m not even sure will get in for best picture. Zone of interest is a very well directed film and a singular vision at that but it doesn’t tend to be the kind of film the academy goes for very often, just saying.
Where's The Color Purple
That Adapted Screenplay category is ST-ACKED. Take it out of the oven, it's already done.
There’s no way in heck Lanthimos takes it in my opinion. However I pray y’all are right about Glazer.
دBest director
Naplion ⚘
Reedly use historical seance in realistic ways.
Great diroction in cinima trailer.
Wait isn’t Air adapted? I swear it’s based off Phil knight’s biography
Man, I don't know. This year could be wild. I'm afraid people locking Nolan right now.
Are people still predidcting Air? Air should have be released in November.
Hoping for Justine Triet to get in over #that man.
I still don't think barbie belongs in original screenplay
YESSS
Past Lives really needs to get both noms, it’s just so refreshing from all aspects in its dialogue
Tony McNamara won 2 back-to-back WGA's for The Great he's definitely eligible
You guys are rating Greta Gerwig so low
Three women in the 6 - 8 slots... stings a bit!
Flower moon is receiving mixed reception from the public. Its too long
>Anatomy of a Five
Greta is getting nominated in director
I think Zone of Interest is #5.
fencing the alexander payne narrative with those awful teen grooming allegations when celine song crafted the better film is real rich
My personal Director list:
1. Andrew Haigh
2. Pablo Larrain
3. Celine Song
4. Wes Anderson
5. Spider-Verse team
My predictions:
1. Yorgos Lanthimos
2. Christopher Nolan
3. Martin Scorsese
4. Celine Song
5. Wim Wenders
I’m kind of going out on a limb with Wenders, but I think Triet might be out because of the lack of selection, so the “international slot” will go to the Foreign Language winner, and I think Perfect Days is really well situated to take that award.
No Priscilla in Adapted? That feels… on the cusp to me.
Not a contender.
@@pb.j.1753 Not for Pic but Spaeny is possible and it’s got enough respect to happen here.
@@nate-it9xq Spaeny is not possible this year. Just too tough competition.
Spaeny is a long shot and screenplay is even more of a long shot
Killers of the Flower Moon is the most sublime, perfect film. Don’t really know why it’s not getting the attention it deserves. It’s Scorsese’s best film since Goodfellas and I will die on this hill. Oppenheimer is just as good too. I really really hate that Barbie is even in the convo for a top film. If it gets nominated for anything other than supporting actor (it shouldn’t even get that) I will lose my almost non existent respect the Oscars.
Nobody is oberdue for winning. Nobody is owed. Each year is independent of others. Also, Barbie is not winning screenplay. It doesnt even deserve a nomination.
I think there's almost no chance Lanthimos is more likely to win than Scorsese. Still think Nolan is going to win, but Scorsese is a much better campaigner than both of them, and there's already been no shortage of articles, profiles, and interviews with the guy outlining his love for cinema. Not saying Nolan doesn't have his admirers, but I think there will certainly be a push to get Scorsese on the stage at some point. A part of me still thinks this is the peak of where we're going to be with Poor Things, especially after it comes and goes at the box office. In fact, I think the fact that KOTFM isn't the outright frontrunner is going to help it sustain throughout the season.
scorsese has been on stage for the departed though. Nolan hasn't gotten one and oppie is considered to be one of his bigger achievements. Don't think killers of the flower moon is FIRMLY in everyones top 3 scorsese
The academy voters do not lpve Scorsese and never have. The directors branch loves him and will nominate him for the tenth time for KOTFM. And he will lose for the 9th time.
I agree he’s probably not winning director, but the point I was making is that I find it very hard to imagine Lanthimos overtaking either one in the winning conversation, especially because I don’t think that film is going to sustain much conversation. Even people who loved it like these guys can’t deny how much more it left them wanting.
My predictions (ALPHABETICAL ORDER)
Best Director
1.Alexander Payne-The Holdovers
2.Martin Scorsese-Killers of the Flower Moon
3.Christopher Nolan-Oppenheimer
4.Celine Song-Past Lives
5.Yorgos Lanthimos-Poor Things
Best Original Screenplay
1.Anatomy of a Fall
2.Barbie
3.The Holdovers
4.Maestro
5.Past Lives
Best Adapted Screenplay
1.All of Us Strangers
2.American Fiction
3.Killers of the Flower Moon
4.Oppenheimer
5.Poor Things
Before you comment “why do you have [blank] at number #1?” This is alphabetical order, as stated on the top
Aaah yes, you can already hear the faint cries of 'This is sexist' and 'This is racist' off in the far distance...
Still need to see 3 out of 5 because they simple haven't been released yet in my country but Nolan and Scorsese are both locks for me, both astonishing, cinematic masterpieces.
Places 6-8 are all good movies but to me more performance based rather than directoral frontrunners.
Jonathan glazer won’t get nominated
Of course people can see The Zone of Interest as not a directing achievement. Things are never that black and white.
It would feel so wrong if no women were nominated for Director this year given how many huge films were directed by women this year
There's no way a woman misses director. Like NOOO way..
Also wtf is American Fiction... Random ass movie
It’s on the board. The three locks (Nolan, Lanthimos, and Scorsese) are all male. Triet would be the international favorite imo, but now that it wasn’t selected for International, Glazer or even Wenders might take the spot. That leaves one left, and while I personally think Song will get it, if The Holdovers is a genuine Picture competitor, Payne could take the last slot.
That's not random it just won The People's Choice award at TIFF🤦♂️
@@blackguyofthesouth2161sorry its random to everyone outside of America I mean my bad but it did come out of nowhere didnt it?
Top 3 feels easy, Glazer I also don’t see a world where he’s not nominated. It’s the fifth spot that’s up for grabs, and I’m gonna predict Gerwig for now
1. i don’t see a world where nolan gets director. we’re talking about what very well could be the final film of the most legendary director of all time, a monumental year for female filmakers, and just in general compared to something like the holdovers or past lives or past lives or saltburn or even the zone of interest… it’s just not directed enough. because you can’t have barbie without gerwigs power over women in film, you can’t have past lives without songs personal life or flower moon without scorceses shear knowledge and talent. oppenheimer in comparison to every other contender is… kind of nothing? it’s just well made and nothing else personally special.
2. i don’t see a world where they don’t give atleast two female director noms. if they didn’t they’d get HEAT for again, achievements by diverse filmakers this year.
I know the people running the Academy would love to have more diverse nominees, but I don’t think most of the voters really care. I expect one woman (Celine Song, I say with my heart not my head), but 0 is more likely than 2.
The branch does not care if they nominate 5 men, they do it almost every year, get heat for it and nothing ever changes.
Greta Gerwig so deserves a nom
Haven't watched most, but based on the reviews and feelings of the ones that did, I believe The Holdovers oscar prospects are been a lot of overrated. Also truly believing Barbie, as the main Warner movie, is gonna do even better than we think (talking specially about director)
I agree with your first point (Past Lives is doing better than The Holdovers in every review metric).
I disagree with your second; I think Barbie is too commercial (in every sense of the word) to compete for major awards. It is this year’s Top Gun Maverick.
If we're talking overall I agree Past Lives seems to me to have more chances than The Holdovers, but if it's in director then I'm more cautious about it cause A24, the common believe right now is that Glazer is in with The Zone of Interest and if so we have to admit it's really hard for them to put Celine Song up there too (even tough I think neighter The Holdover or Past Lives will get in director).
About Barbie, for me is more of a Elvis-Top Gun mix, has the popular pleasing like Maverick, but also the previous academy relevant name with sort of a signature in direction, although it's just speculation I think Baz was the 6th last year.
First!
Air deserves nothing.
I'm confused as to why Ava Duvernay is not on this list. She's pretty likely to get nominated for this award. Her entire campaign is focused towards it.
I have seen Origin. It is not that good. It‘s pretty clear to me the film is not a contender except for Best Actress maybe.
honestly don't get the hype for Oppenheimer, but then again which Nolan film actually deserves its hype. I just think that this fights Interstellar for most hyped least deserved in his filmography
If we get three films directed by women in Best Picture and we still get an all-male Best Director lineup, that will be the biggest shitstorm the Oscars have seen since #OscarsSoWhite.
That would indeed be shocking to a person who doesnt know that ten is a larger number than five.