I remember in 2007 when I was working in real estate seeing people buy homes new from builders with the intention of selling before close of escrow to a new buyer for profit. The crash was so brutal and fast that I remember seeing a lot of these units foreclosed on with the builder plastic still on the carpet.
Most people find it difficult to handle a fall since they are used to bull markets, but if you know where to look and how to maneuver, you can make a size-able profit. Depending on how you intend to enter and exit, yes.
The enduring US stock market bull run evokes a mix of fear and excitement, presenting opportunities with insight, resulting in $780k gains in the past ten months, utilizing a portfolio advisor for a well-defined strategy.
@@PhilipDunk My portfolio has been in the gutter for the entire year, so I started researching new ways to profit in the market, but everything I tried just seemed to miss the mark. Please let us know the name of your financial advisor.
Do your due diligence and opt for one that has tactics to help your portfolio continue consistent and steady growth. “Vivian Carol Gioia” is accountable for the success of my portfolio, and I believe she has the qualifications and expertise to accomplish your objectives.
@@PhilipDunk This is useful information; I copied her full name and pasted it into my browser; her website popped up immediately and her qualifications are excellent; thanks for sharing.
I am really worried about the current bank crisis/interest rates, these are all the signs of yet another 2008 market crash 2.0 , so my question is do I still save in the fiat or is this a good time to buy gold?
It’s always a good option to keep some gold. Well with the current market situation and everything at stake with the present economy, I’d say you’re better off staying away from stocks fr awhile or better still reach out to an adviser for guidance.
Many people underestimate the importance of advisors until their emotions lead to negative outcomes. I remember a few summers ago, after my long divorce, I sought the help of a diligent license advisor. They greatly assisted in boosting my business, increasing my reserve from $175k to around $350k despite inflation.
In my opinion, a housing market crash is imminent due to the high number of individuals who purchased homes above the asking price despite the low interest rates. These buyers find themselves in precarious situations as housing prices decline, leaving them without any equity. If they become unable to afford their homes, foreclosure becomes a likely outcome. Even attempting to sell would not yield any profits. This scenario is expected to impact a significant number of people, particularly in light of the anticipated surge in layoffs and the rapid increase in the cost of living.
I suggest you offset your real estate and get into stocks, A recession as bad as it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short-time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advice but get buying, cash isn’t king at all at this time!
You are right! I’ve diversified my 350K portfolio across various market with the aid of an investment coach, I have been able to generate a little bit above $730k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds.
“Christine Jane Mclean” is the coach that guides me, She has years of financial market experience, you can use something else but for me her strategy works hence my result. She provides entry and exit point for the securities I focus on.
Thank you, I looked up her name on the internet, and her information came up immediately. I drafted an email and scheduled a phone conversation. I'm hopeful that she will respond, and my aim is to end 2023 on a financially successful note.
Mortgage rates are currently at an all time high since 2009(14 years) and based on statistics on inflation, we might see that number skyrocket further, a 5-year fixed rate was only 6% this time last year, so do I just keep waiting for a housing crash before buying or redirect my focus to the equity market
The stock market is no different, to maintain profit, you need to have some in-depth knowledge on the market. I mostly just buy and hold stocks, but my portfolio has been mostly in the red for quite awhile now. Unfortunately to be able to make good gains, you’ll need to be consistent and restructure your portfolio frequently.
In my opinion, it was much easier investing back in the 60s but it’s a lot trickier now, those making consistent profit in these times are professionals reason I’ve been using an advisor for the past 5 years to consistently build my portfolio in preparations for retirement.
Can't divulge much “Camille Alicia Garcia” is the advisor that oversees my portfolio. She's an extremely intelligent person, very thoughtful, cautious, and has an outstanding credentials, it's easy to find her on the web.
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.
The crisis isn't just affecting potential homebuyers; even those fortunate enough to own homes are experiencing the ripple effects. The accompanying surge in property taxes and maintenance costs has propelled the overall cost of homeownership to unprecedented levels.
Many will want to blame it on immigration into the country but it is beyond that. The Cullen Commission has the details as to why the housing market in Canada is performing poorly. Money Laundering and Malpractices
In times as financially precarious as these, seeking counsel from a seasoned financial advisor becomes imperative. Professionals like Loren Lena Walker have honed their expertise in navigating the intricate web of real estate and financial intricacies, offering guidance and strategies to help individuals and families make informed decisions.
I’ve never seen such a big operation … that is so geographically confined. there is an ongoing public inquiry into money laundering in British Columbia, led by British Columbia Supreme Court Justice Austin Cullen.
Loren Lena Walker's name has frequently been associated with proficiency in real estate and financial matters. Her reputation precedes her, and she has a knack for providing tailored solutions, be it for aspiring homeowners trying to find a foothold in the property market or existing homeowners striving to maintain their financial equilibrium amidst these challenging market dynamics.
I saw this coming 3 years ago. It had to happen. And how many people paid over asking for the property, without so much as an inspection? If people are stupid enough to give money away that easily, they don't deserve to have it.
Yes lots of stupid people bought these expensive properties. My friend bought a condo from 800k few hears ago and, a year ago I told him to get rid of it, his stupid realtor told him not to. And today he still believes that his condo will increase in value 😅
I love it when people say "it keeps going up in the long run" or even better "but immigration will keep the prices high"... this doesn't help anyone right now does it?
@@chrisdafos8365 nope immigration won't be able to afford these homes as well, that's why a price correction started to happen by raising the interest rates.
Two things...young people will leave GTO as they cannot afford to live there and immigrants will leave Canada as they also cannot afford a house, find a family doctor, or have their qualifications recognized in their profession. I wouldn't count on population to bail out this mess.
Devil's advocate: You assume minimum wage, austerity and poor living is a worse outcome for them than where they were before. They're not leaving. Canada is a stepping stone to the USA. Ask any new arrival they'll tell you this. It's all about getting to the US and those sweet American dollar$. It's as much a fantasy as making 100k as a cleaner or 75 as a barista. That's what they think they're coming for in Canada. Those are minimum wage, sub 30k jobs.
@@kolar Certainly, a subset of new immigrants (including myself) have this mindset. However most of those who qualify for the (extremely competitive) express entry today were very high caliber people making high salaries in senior roles in (often American) multinational giants. There are many ways to get to the US, the TN is just one approach. I can say with great confidence that most new immigrants aren't willing to step down significantly. Doing minimum wage gigs is out of the question because of the opportunity cost (they will move back or elsewhere, and admit a mistake was made). I would say that the vast majority of new immigrants who thrive in Canada will remain in Canada because barring $$, the US isn't exactly an upgrade either.
I do agree with OP. Most new immigrants are NOT thriving in Canada and will leave sooner or later. It's just a matter of time. For its incredible potential, this beautiful country is extremely underwhelming and needs a mindset overhaul. Else, further stagnation and collapse is inevitable.
@@northernguy4262 the problem with "old school" mentality is that just south of the border, new grads are making starting salaries of 200k USD. while this piss poor job market that is canada is paying a fraction of that in CAD. anyone with half a brain is going to move. the old school folks are shooting fish from the bottom of the barrel and are wondering why these employees are underperforming.
People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
buy now, home prices will not go lower. Inflation is definitely making things worse, back in the early '90s when I purchased my first home in Miami to live, mortgage rates of 8% - 9% and 9% - 10% were typical. If rates drop, you can refinance.
@@carl.rankovic I'm in line with having a personal finance expert help sustain and grow my wealth, my job doesn’t permit me the time to manage my investments properly, hence I employed the service of an advisor, actively restructuring my portfolio for 5 years now, thus generating big fat yields after subsequent investments, just about 15% short of $1m as of today
@@carl.rankovic I'm in line with having a personal finance expert help sustain and grow my wealth, my job doesn’t permit me the time to manage my investments properly, hence I employed the service of an advisor, actively restructuring my portfolio for 5 years now, thus generating big fat yields after subsequent investments, just about 15% short of $1m as of today
Couple thoughts, because I’m looking to sell and move within Toronto: I can’t lower my price to sell in a meaningful way, because the market I want to move to is overpriced and also won’t budge. If they lower, I can lower, but until then I can’t afford to sell if I can’t afford to buy for the same price
Really enjoy your analysis as an independent observer. The self reporting of the housing sales industry is insane and should be regulated more closely. It's next to impossible to recognize a news report vs an ad these days. Keep up the good work!
I think financiers don't easily disclose when they are fools. And the muckrakers are no match for modern media. Hardly any socialist governments anywhere because the financial people don't like a powerful enemy.
i've never gotten into real estate investing because i feel it seems difficult to find accurate information and i think the content creators for it are not good. this is the first video i've found by you and it's really good, unbiased, and informative. i plan to be a first time home/condo buyer in a couple years and i think i'll absorb the content from your videos up until that point.
Well explained with excellent points. Can’t tell you the number of times I had to add $$$ because of low appraisals. I agree with you that things aren’t as bad as I thought they’d be. And this will take years to play out.
Remember, on an average $1mil in 2021 at the annual interest rate of 2% with 20% down monthly interest payments were a completely acceptable $1350. Today, at 5% that's $2000 extra. So, in order to justify the new interest rates (which will only be going up) home prices will have to go down x2.5 times. Which is not going to happen.
Nothing can go down more than one time (100%), in the late 80s/early 90s crash Toronto house prices went down 40% over about 7 years. Taking into account inflation/income growth a repeat would reset the market back to 2021 affordability but at much lower house prices. With the amount of debt and variable and short-term reset mortgages thats a lot of pain and a lot of jingle mail. Problem is that mortgage rates are closer to 6% than 5%, so may be an even bigger crash than the early 90s.
The key here is that the average annual income in Toronto is 70K and the average debt to income ratio is 1:1.86. This means that most people are spending $1.86 on every dollar earned, and that with 70K annual income most people cannot afford to buy a condo or a house, let alone groceries. QE is over. It’s QT for the foreseeable future moreover unemployment is trending upward. I suspect prices will return to 2015 valuations. This nightmare is just getting started. There’s going to be a world of pain for a great many people. The “dream” of being a RE baron/ “investor” is over.
Or, more likely scenario is that home prices continue to rise and the average income of residents increases to match that rise. Not by people earning more money, but by those with higher incomes moving to the city. It's the same thing that happened in places like NYC, London, etc. Everyone calling for home prices to "crash" recently is just wishful thinking and tells that the opposite will likely happen.
Construction cost are up 1.5 which means if you estimated a construction cost (budget) of $350.00 the cost is now $525.00 - what does this mean - ever project in construction now is most likely under water - best case or the builder - brake even - no profit - and most likely - a big loss !!
Construction labour will remain high, government fees will remain high, materials will remain high, land prices will remain high. If builders can't make money thru won't build, supply dries up while millions flood into the country. Low prices are a pipe dream and that ship sailed a long time ago
Exactly. Everyone is saying that there will be a crash when the cost of literally everything has increased in price and the population grew 4% last year alone.
Not really![ look what had Happened in US in 2008 meltdown]. Prior to that property were hot cakes n prices were almost doubling- never seen before in US. ( In next 5 to 10 years the Early Babyboomer will be gone, leaving some vaccume) n then years to followed by the next set of Babyboomers!
As an 18 year old im just gonna say I wish I could find a place to rent comfortably but everything is going for at least 3k/month and thats not even considering whose gonna rent you out at 18... I'm not asking for much i would be more than happy with a studio but there are none I can afford 😭
It’s going right back up soon. People will go crazy again once rates start coming down. I’ll book mark this so I can come back in 3 years and see where the housing market is
what boggles my mind is how many people can afford a home costing over 500K + me and my wife work jobs making $25/h and we cannot find a home for less then 400K which is where we are comfortable paying in this city of 55K people, are there other homes for 250K-300k sure but they require massive repairs or new roofs or siding or just old outdated interiors which would mean spending another 30-50k to fix. The homes where you could be happy buying and they in a year or two redoing the kitchen and such just do not exist at the price we want. Just south of me in NY state our $400k would buy a very very nice house in a nice neighborhood. I am starting to feel that its cheaper to move to another country and start a new life with new job then it is just to buy a home in this Country.
there is something fundamentally wrong with this country when you see from 2016 till now prices have more then doubled for condos let alone homes. I think it should be illegal for you to sell a property that you have owned for less then 5 years as a condo and for residential you should only be allowed to own 2 homes max and if you want to own more it must be multi unit rentals.
I would never buy housing in Canada and making plans to leave within 6 months .. I refused to support blind bidding … and developers are building huge luxury homes in vacation areas and they are selling
My sister and I are considering the exact same scenario and because we both work in Healthcare and tech the opportunities and standard of living is way higher in the States. If only it weren't for the guns😂
I think one thing left unmentioned is the occupancy period. With how high rates are, the occupancy fees are going to be massive, and who knows how long the occupancy period is going to be. Especially with record levels of completions, it could take the city a long time.
@@keepitreato Yup & higher now. Our interim occupancy was Nov 22 - Feb 23 and it was already at $3000 for a 1 bdrm and that was a few rate hikes ago, people are going to be in for an extraordinary shock. Especially if projects arent done on time (none really are post covid still) as mine was just as late as most others. There's already a difference in quality too within the buildings in my corporation with the last building being made the worst/cheapest. Had a repair person come in for my washer, he said he gets non-stop calls/issues from the other building do to poor configuration that was supposed to be the same as my building but ended up being pounded with "cost-cutting" measures to finish the project. materials used in that building just looked a lot different too. Yet were being robbed by rising condo fees yet are being told of more and more scale-backs to what we're paying through the nose for. I wouldn't be getting into new condos now, nope, yet Ontario is banking on new housing via condos and being one of the only places with interim occupancy periods it's only going to get messier if things don't correct somehow. Then you get those loser landlords (who refuse to pay their own mortgages) who try to dupe people into moving into these units to cover the cost of the interim occupancy which hahaha, nope! My building was EMPTY during our interim occupancy, they couldn't get tenants, took nearly a year to get to the capacity were at now. Must be some mighty rich landlords to burn through all that cash while it sits empty (:
Great video. With the amount of mortgages renewing in the next 1-2 years that are currently at very low rates and will jump up significantly, things don’t look good.
The actual question is: can end users? If not then nothing new gets built and rents keep going up as new supply goes to 0 As usual it is the renters that suffer the most from displaced buyers with $$ getting pushed down to rent when supply is limited.
Investors will just pass down the cost to the renters. Sane investors are there to invest, not to let it sit and waiting for the price to go up, which means renting it out.
The real question is: Why is being able to live with a roof over your head seen as an investment? It should be a right. The so-called investor in the housing market need to be tracked down. Nobody should be able to own (through him or a company) more than 2 dwelling properties. AirBNB needs to be tracked down and banned from this country. This whole system needs to be flipped over. How much time do you think it's gonna last? A decade or two? When 30 % of the population will live in the streets, unable to pay for the smallest 1 room apartment, what do you think will happen then?
People still forget that interest rates are lower than the real rate of inflation, so investors are still encouraged to take on debt. We need rates to be higher than inflation. And , the low down payment requirements are also causing this problem because it leads to too much demand of overleveraged homeowners who shouldnt be buying in the first place and highly leveraged speculators. The minimum down on a condo should be 40 or 50% even. That would discourage underqualified home buyers and "land banking" and bring prices down to a more sane 2012 level.
right..but for most young poeple that can't afford a house condo's were supposed to fill that gap and now they are supposed to have %50 down? that doesnt add up.
@@specvrossyoung people should consider building a house out of dirt and cobblestone in Minecraft because that's all they are ever going to realistically afford. Interest rates should be 0.01% and down payments 1% so that speculators can just completely buy out the market and cause a total collapse of everything. That's the only way young people have any chance.
@@specvross They can be patient and save the money. No one needs to order Uber Eats or go on holidays abroad. Higher down payment requirwments combined with higher interest rates would be enough to deter amateur investment and bring prices down to 2012 or even earlier levels. All prices post 2008 are artificial asset appreciation from BOC money printing.
We also need to eliminate the public insurance backstopping of Canadian mortgages. Its unfair to burden the taxpayer with risky mortgages. If I was a lender and the government wasnt backing anything, I wouldnt approve any low down payments and Id be very hestiant to approve the mortgages of private sector workers who will just end up loosing their jobs to AI in 5-10 years .
I'm hoping there will be a housing crisis so I can buy cheaply when I sell a few houses in 2024. As a backup plan, I've been thinking about purchasing stocks. What advice do you have for choosing the best buying time? On the one hand, I continue to read and see trading earnings of over $500k each week. On the other side, I keep hearing that the market is out of control and experiencing a dead cat bounce. Why does this happen?
You're not doing anything wrong; you simply lack the expertise necessary to make money in a bad market. In these difficult circumstances, only really skilled experts who were forced to witness the 2008 financial crisis could expect to generate a large wage.
Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful.
Finding financial advisors like Margaret Johnson Arndt who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I appreciate this. After entering her full name into my search bar, her professional web page surfaced as the top result. Her impressive qualifications undoubtedly speak volumes about her expertise
Most of the power of sales are due to private mortgages maturing and the appraised value has dropped and they cannot find a replacement mortgage. A major issue is people take out mortgages they cannot afford. If they could, they could easily be approved with a rent to own product and the house could be saved. Most people that are in bank mortgages, simply renew so the default rates are actually down from last year according to all the major banks.
Lol, the variable rates for a large % of people haven't even switched over yet. The real burn is coming in a couple months. I'm looking forward to it as a buyer.
GOOD! The reckless over spenders who fueled the nonsense getting bit in the butt is the best thing that could happen. Hope many have to sell at a huge loss. Thats KARMA for the situation they fueled the country into.
Great news! Unfortunately, houses in this country, on average, are still selling for nearly three times their actual worth, so there's a lot that still needs to happen before reality comes crashing down on the heads of the moneyed class. I'm looking forward to every step of the journey, even though the country is going to be pushed to the breaking point because of the unbelievable fucking greed of investors, flippers, Boomers, and all the other criminals who have completely destroyed this once-great country.
Awesome. It needs correcting. First time home buys never had a chance in Toronto any ways. Not without wealthy contributions from family or whatever. Speculators, free money lending and people who don't understand how debt works have caused the problems.
The problem is that it will not correct. Even a moderate decrease in listing price is offset by cost of capital. When rates ease in the next 12-24 months, prices will rocket up again. There's a massive demand/supply imbalance that will take literal decades to resolve, and only if good policy is signed. The sample size this video highlights is not a proper analysis of the greater issues or the underlying factors. The problems are almost solely derived from bad policy - not speculators, low rates or "people who don't understand how debt works"...
@@scottwilson1682 Bad policy encompasses all of that and then some. That's just some of it. If you were to define what the bad policies are. What would they be? That is true as well. It won't correct enough to make a difference for the poor. You could build a million houses in Toronto and the wealthy/speculators will still buy up as much as they can. It's the one way the average person can make more money with ease. Why not own and rent 5+ houses if one could. There are so many people with so much money that it's always going to be an uphill battle for the people with little. If not the houses, then it will be the land itself. Perhaps less immigration to Toronto (Bring them to more affordable cities) It's not like Canada has too many people either. We don't have enough people in fact. A lot of the issues are mostly in southern Ontario / British Columbia only. Canada is huge. There are many cheaper and more affordable places to live in Canada. There are not all the same issues elsewhere that is there is in the Toronto area. I'm not saying it is perfect else ware either, but it is a lot more manageable. A lot of the major portion of Torontos issue are not all that old either. It wasn't all that long ago that you could buy a house (yes, a small one but...) in Toronto for the mid hundreds of thousands. The last few years has caused the most issue. Cheap mortgages, speculation and to many people coming to the city are a contributing factor for sure. Then throw a pandemic in there and let people lose their minds. It's the perfect storm. Just to state "some" of the obvious. Then add on other things like high tax and anything else. Compound it all with government officials who all get paid very well, can eat and have houses so they don't need to care about poor people issues. Where was all this talk 5 years ago. I know it was there. It just wasn't so prominent until recently once to many people started driving the costs up so high in Toronto. Whenever else have you seen prices go up in such a short period of time like the last few years. More houses will help for sure. But they still won't cheap either. It's the easiest way to make the most money for the average person. Own multiple properties and rent them. It's a win for the government also. More houses mean more people which also means more taxes for the government to give away. Why would they not want that? Why do so many people need to be in Toronto and area anyway? Supply is an issue yes. But so are many factors.
There is so much to unpack. There are many reasons why this is happening. Toronto is just unaffordable to buyers without the backing of previously sold property to help of the family. Also, with the higher rates. Many are moving to Alberta where I work and not looking back.
Two weeks ago, Minto dropped the price on their new bungalows in their Manotick (Ottawa) project by 100k. They obviously know the market. Prices are dropping.
FYI - s fully renovated home in central Etobicoke in my neighbourhood and across from a junior school is listed for 4.3MM insane. What young family with junior school aged kids can afford a 4MM home?????
2:25 "Inventory is absolutely ripping up and to the right." It is a time chart. I hope it keeps on going to the right or we are having some sort of time paradox problem.
The 8 million rental shoe-box size units will be built in the next decade to ease the demands for Homes and lands. The 8 million shoe-box size rental units will cost the Canadian taxpayers over $2.5 Trillion, a huge debt burden on Canada's future generations, and it would take 5 to 6 generations to be paid off. The question is if Canada can survive that long?
Really appreciate the analytic based content and data that your channel provides! Was curious if you know of any data basses or websites that provide reviews for individual developers? Online it is hard to find objective reviews for developers that are current and nonbiased. Or have you thought about making videos highlighting developers that you recommend? Keep pushing the great content!
Thanks for watching. First thing I'd do is check the HCRE builder database for deliveries. Then I'd check the urbantoronto forum threads on their past builds. I have to be careful posting reviews of developers, can post about the builders I like but unfortunately would almost certainly get sued posting about the ones I don't
Wow, please do Calgary! Great content and i would love this info for Calgary. I expected Calgary to get affected by interest rates but it seems migration haa been pretty resilient so far. I was very close to signing a precondtruction townhome closing mid next year but i have a preconsutrction mortgage approval closing this January. I decided to not go for a preconstruction townhome for the reasons you mentioned. My contract didnt allow me to assign and I would lose my downpayment should the market dip short term or I cant get approval.
Minimum 75% was the average lost in arizona by late 2011 after the 2008 crash. This is way way more inflated then that was.. it's gonna be bad. I honestly think your gonna see lots of banks gone after this as well.
MIC"s certainly a possibility in a bad scenario, larger banks definitely not. Very different structure than the US. I'm excluding the CMHC discussion as i'm assuming you're referring to presales. Any catastrophic adjustment down will largely get bailed out by CMHC (which is effectively the Canadian tax payer, which if messed up and another macro difference between the US and CA system).
@@hrb250 doesn't matter. They are all connected and the bottom line is this.. I don't care how they are structured.. they have way more debt that's flat out bad then they can possibly ever cover in a totally failing nation and economy. I understand you didn't loan as easily as the u.s. banks.. having said that home values used were fake. Sorry who appraises a homes 3 times the value right across a river. It isn't there. It's there because corrupt government period and corrupt bankers . Interest rates should've never been kept 5-6 points below average.for a decade that caused all this. Sorry nothing climbs for 30 yrs that isn't manipulated
I don't know what's going on. All I know is it's getting worse. I work 2 jobs and can't afford a place to live. 24 hr and a part time job at 18. I could rent a 4 bedroom house 10 years ago. At the price of a 2 bedroom apartment now. What's worse is I could afford that 10 years ago. With the price of everything up now. I can't afford that 2 bedroom. I have 3 kids. After child support and would be rent. I'd still be 1000 in the red. How can a person live today? I'm scared to death for my kids future.
You can’t buy precon to flip, it doesn’t make sense. You are better off not buying period if flipping is the end goal. Great video and info as always Jordan!
Wait, so you mean prices don't always go up? Lol. Has the infinite money glitch finally been patched? If so, the HELOCs and debt used to buy all the fancy toys hasn't... ;)
There is still too much money in the system, and in Canada real estate was the beneficiary. Either Inflation continues feedbacking to wages w/ currency devaluation or Housing market continues to dramatically correct. The later might be the less painful, however those of us with homes may not like it, and those with mortgages --- well --- hate to say it, the banks may have not have been too forthright on their economic outlook (as they sold you a variable rate to cover their ass - but not yours) I imagine with corrections like these, we will start to see losses on condo assignments soon.
fact is that last 3-4 years simply were not a realistic numbers with house prices. Only a naive person could think that houses are gonna continue increasing in price EXPONENTIALLY every year. Over inflated caused with foreign purchases, local investors buying on equity loans and super low interest rates. I would say market is collapsing when it gets to 2017-18 level prices. Everything before is just a correction from purchase frenzy in last 3-4 years.
Preconstruction is speculative/gambling, until the house is built you are giving the developer a loan *and* accepting all of their risk, not purchasing property...
This year is a write off, however the economic data is terrible anecdotally(just talkin to people, business owners), I'm thinking 2 to 3 months and the results will reach Bank of Canada. What They will do is anybody's guess.
Give it a little more time. While some of the numbers conflict this is due the relatively early nature in the of power of sale on refi, and lenders unwillingness to reduce price. They will not hold onto the inventory for long. Once they start discounting then the market crashes. Sorry for the gloom and doom. Supply and demand will take over.
Spring 2024 mortgage rates for both fixed and variable will be above 5%. Still very few buyers with an increased amount of sellers that need to sell. Stricter Airbnb regulations will also increase supply. If you are hoping for a bull run you will be disappointed
almost 2 years ago my buddy took out money out of his house to buy two pre con condos. I can bet his house value went down and the condo prices went down. Things are only going to get worse. I say in 2025 when rates finally lower significantly, then prices will go back up and money will start flowing again. Hope you guys can make it till 2025.
The market is going to get "worse" and thats a good thing. 1 million dollars for a reasonable single familly home is unnacceptable in a country where your average University Graduate makes 20$ an hour and and the median income is 40,000$ The current housing market is unnacceptable and rediculous.
Depends on what is meant by "Worse". Worse for buyers or sellers. But yea, housing prices are super inflated, which is why there needs to be more housing construction. I would however argue that this means the housing market is getting "Better". This means more business for the construction trades and realtors, and cheaper housing for the population. So it's goo all around.
Lol, Im a Structural Engineer and engineered Residential and Commercial bldgs. Sales for new and old houses in the country is not favorable for buyers, not the best time to buy right now. Good luck.
It's not 6-12 months for interest rates to take full affect. It's 18 months. Though I'd say it's actually longer these days as most mortgages (~60+%) have currently had no change in their payments because those on variable aren't forced to increase their payments. I know this because I went to TD to increase my payments the day after an interest rate hike and the mortgage guy didn't even know interest rates had increased!!
Some basement apartments want you to pay $1700, basically they want you to pay their mortgage lol gtfoh , happy I moved into my building in 2012 , I pay $1350 all inclusive a month for a 950sq ft apartment 2 bedroom 1.5 bathrooms big ass living room 🥂 😊
Not only do they want 2 grand for a shitty basement there are 50 people willing to pay it and you need to go through hoops to get them. Moteling it is more fun and I get treated so much better and housekeeping for not too much more than the average apartment cost., F u landlords!!!!
Foreclosure are a joke in Canada. The level of mafia on the realtors is out of control. They try to maximize profits even on this hard situations. Jail time for scammers
Punjabi international students and African refugees are not wealthy like the chinese and persian immigrant waves of 1-2 decades ago. They dont have the means to buy real estate . They should also be offset by the death rate of canadians being much higher than the natural birth rate.
I remember in 2007 when I was working in real estate seeing people buy homes new from builders with the intention of selling before close of escrow to a new buyer for profit. The crash was so brutal and fast that I remember seeing a lot of these units foreclosed on with the builder plastic still on the carpet.
Most people find it difficult to handle a fall since they are used to bull markets, but if you know where to look and how to maneuver, you can make a size-able profit. Depending on how you intend to enter and exit, yes.
The enduring US stock market bull run evokes a mix of fear and excitement, presenting opportunities with insight, resulting in $780k gains in the past ten months, utilizing a portfolio advisor for a well-defined strategy.
@@PhilipDunk My portfolio has been in the gutter for the entire year, so I started researching new ways to profit in the market, but everything I tried just seemed to miss the mark. Please let us know the name of your financial advisor.
Do your due diligence and opt for one that has tactics to help your portfolio continue consistent and steady growth. “Vivian Carol Gioia” is accountable for the success of my portfolio, and I believe she has the qualifications and expertise to accomplish your objectives.
@@PhilipDunk This is useful information; I copied her full name and pasted it into my browser; her website popped up immediately and her qualifications are excellent; thanks for sharing.
I am really worried about the current bank crisis/interest rates, these are all the signs of yet another 2008 market crash 2.0 , so my question is do I still save in the fiat or is this a good time to buy gold?
It’s always a good option to keep some gold. Well with the current market situation and everything at stake with the present economy, I’d say you’re better off staying away from stocks fr awhile or better still reach out to an adviser for guidance.
Many people underestimate the importance of advisors until their emotions lead to negative outcomes. I remember a few summers ago, after my long divorce, I sought the help of a diligent license advisor. They greatly assisted in boosting my business, increasing my reserve from $175k to around $350k despite inflation.
@@hasede-lg9hj my partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you.
my partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you.
The advisor that guides me is Vivian Carol Gioia, most likely the internet is where to find her basic info, just search her name. She's established.
In my opinion, a housing market crash is imminent due to the high number of individuals who purchased homes above the asking price despite the low interest rates. These buyers find themselves in precarious situations as housing prices decline, leaving them without any equity. If they become unable to afford their homes, foreclosure becomes a likely outcome. Even attempting to sell would not yield any profits. This scenario is expected to impact a significant number of people, particularly in light of the anticipated surge in layoffs and the rapid increase in the cost of living.
I suggest you offset your real estate and get into stocks, A recession as bad as it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short-time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advice but get buying, cash isn’t king at all at this time!
You are right! I’ve diversified my 350K portfolio across various market with the aid of an investment coach, I have been able to generate a little bit above $730k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds.
I just started a few months back, I'm going for long term, I'm still trying to wrap my head around it, who’s this advisor you work with?
“Christine Jane Mclean” is the coach that guides me, She has years of financial market experience, you can use something else but for me her strategy works hence my result. She provides entry and exit point for the securities I focus on.
Thank you, I looked up her name on the internet, and her information came up immediately. I drafted an email and scheduled a phone conversation. I'm hopeful that she will respond, and my aim is to end 2023 on a financially successful note.
Mortgage rates are currently at an all time high since 2009(14 years) and based on statistics on inflation, we might see that number skyrocket further, a 5-year fixed rate was only 6% this time last year, so do I just keep waiting for a housing crash before buying or redirect my focus to the equity market
The stock market is no different, to maintain profit, you need to have some in-depth knowledge on the market. I mostly just buy and hold stocks, but my portfolio has been mostly in the red for quite awhile now. Unfortunately to be able to make good gains, you’ll need to be consistent and restructure your portfolio frequently.
In my opinion, it was much easier investing back in the 60s but it’s a lot trickier now, those making consistent profit in these times are professionals reason I’ve been using an advisor for the past 5 years to consistently build my portfolio in preparations for retirement.
@@mariaguerrero08 My partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you.
Can't divulge much “Camille Alicia Garcia” is the advisor that oversees my portfolio. She's an extremely intelligent person, very thoughtful, cautious, and has an outstanding credentials, it's easy to find her on the web.
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.
The crisis isn't just affecting potential homebuyers; even those fortunate enough to own homes are experiencing the ripple effects. The accompanying surge in property taxes and maintenance costs has propelled the overall cost of homeownership to unprecedented levels.
Many will want to blame it on immigration into the country but it is beyond that. The Cullen Commission has the details as to why the housing market in Canada is performing poorly. Money Laundering and Malpractices
Move out, even move back to Mumbai, as long as you can afford a good living in this current economy doesn’t matter the location.
In times as financially precarious as these, seeking counsel from a seasoned financial advisor becomes imperative. Professionals like Loren Lena Walker have honed their expertise in navigating the intricate web of real estate and financial intricacies, offering guidance and strategies to help individuals and families make informed decisions.
I’ve never seen such a big operation … that is so geographically confined. there is an ongoing public inquiry into money laundering in British Columbia, led by British Columbia Supreme Court Justice Austin Cullen.
Loren Lena Walker's name has frequently been associated with proficiency in real estate and financial matters. Her reputation precedes her, and she has a knack for providing tailored solutions, be it for aspiring homeowners trying to find a foothold in the property market or existing homeowners striving to maintain their financial equilibrium amidst these challenging market dynamics.
Who actually has 6k cash a month to rent a property? Thats insanity
Look at the cost of any decent retirement care facility. People are paying $6000-9000 per month for the luxury units. Some people have deep pockets.
In 416? A LOT of people have that homie. Sorry to bust your bubble on that
So you see the prices, the transactions and you still deny the facts?
@@Dean-pi2hb Statistically, less than 3% of the market has that. Not exactly "A LOT"... and that 3% are almost entirely homeowners, not renters.
You miss the point, according to the WEF, you will own nothing and happy. We will not be owing anything personal or we will loose ownership.
I saw this coming 3 years ago. It had to happen. And how many people paid over asking for the property, without so much as an inspection? If people are stupid enough to give money away that easily, they don't deserve to have it.
Yes lots of stupid people bought these expensive properties. My friend bought a condo from 800k few hears ago and, a year ago I told him to get rid of it, his stupid realtor told him not to. And today he still believes that his condo will increase in value 😅
YUP
I love it when people say "it keeps going up in the long run" or even better "but immigration will keep the prices high"... this doesn't help anyone right now does it?
@@chrisdafos8365 nope immigration won't be able to afford these homes as well, that's why a price correction started to happen by raising the interest rates.
They still paid less than the property is worth today, would you say that was a bad call?
Two things...young people will leave GTO as they cannot afford to live there and immigrants will leave Canada as they also cannot afford a house, find a family doctor, or have their qualifications recognized in their profession. I wouldn't count on population to bail out this mess.
Devil's advocate: You assume minimum wage, austerity and poor living is a worse outcome for them than where they were before. They're not leaving. Canada is a stepping stone to the USA. Ask any new arrival they'll tell you this. It's all about getting to the US and those sweet American dollar$. It's as much a fantasy as making 100k as a cleaner or 75 as a barista. That's what they think they're coming for in Canada. Those are minimum wage, sub 30k jobs.
@@kolar Certainly, a subset of new immigrants (including myself) have this mindset. However most of those who qualify for the (extremely competitive) express entry today were very high caliber people making high salaries in senior roles in (often American) multinational giants. There are many ways to get to the US, the TN is just one approach. I can say with great confidence that most new immigrants aren't willing to step down significantly. Doing minimum wage gigs is out of the question because of the opportunity cost (they will move back or elsewhere, and admit a mistake was made). I would say that the vast majority of new immigrants who thrive in Canada will remain in Canada because barring $$, the US isn't exactly an upgrade either.
I do agree with OP. Most new immigrants are NOT thriving in Canada and will leave sooner or later. It's just a matter of time. For its incredible potential, this beautiful country is extremely underwhelming and needs a mindset overhaul. Else, further stagnation and collapse is inevitable.
@@northernguy4262 the problem with "old school" mentality is that just south of the border, new grads are making starting salaries of 200k USD. while this piss poor job market that is canada is paying a fraction of that in CAD. anyone with half a brain is going to move.
the old school folks are shooting fish from the bottom of the barrel and are wondering why these employees are underperforming.
you summed it all up
Are investor groups buying up the foreclosed units?
I gotta say this is the most honest and informative real estate analysis I ever heard. Keep up the good work sir. Subbed.
wait until some rich immigrant who's rich beyond all moral value and owns condo's reports it so it's taken down.
People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
buy now, home prices will not go lower. Inflation is definitely making things worse, back in the early '90s when I purchased my first home in Miami to live, mortgage rates of 8% - 9% and 9% - 10% were typical. If rates drop, you can refinance.
@@carl.rankovic I'm in line with having a personal finance expert help sustain and grow my wealth, my job doesn’t permit me the time to manage my investments properly, hence I employed the service of an advisor, actively restructuring my portfolio for 5 years now, thus generating big fat yields after subsequent investments, just about 15% short of $1m as of today
@@carl.rankovic I'm in line with having a personal finance expert help sustain and grow my wealth, my job doesn’t permit me the time to manage my investments properly, hence I employed the service of an advisor, actively restructuring my portfolio for 5 years now, thus generating big fat yields after subsequent investments, just about 15% short of $1m as of today
@@carl.rankovic I had a one year GIC for $56,000 in Canada one year GIC paid 12.125 percent in 1990.
Couple thoughts, because I’m looking to sell and move within Toronto:
I can’t lower my price to sell in a meaningful way, because the market I want to move to is overpriced and also won’t budge.
If they lower, I can lower, but until then I can’t afford to sell if I can’t afford to buy for the same price
Really enjoy your analysis as an independent observer. The self reporting of the housing sales industry is insane and should be regulated more closely. It's next to impossible to recognize a news report vs an ad these days. Keep up the good work!
I think financiers don't easily disclose when they are fools. And the muckrakers are no match for modern media. Hardly any socialist governments anywhere because the financial people don't like a powerful enemy.
i've never gotten into real estate investing because i feel it seems difficult to find accurate information and i think the content creators for it are not good. this is the first video i've found by you and it's really good, unbiased, and informative. i plan to be a first time home/condo buyer in a couple years and i think i'll absorb the content from your videos up until that point.
Well explained with excellent points. Can’t tell you the number of times I had to add $$$ because of low appraisals. I agree with you that things aren’t as bad as I thought they’d be. And this will take years to play out.
Remember, on an average $1mil in 2021 at the annual interest rate of 2% with 20% down monthly interest payments were a completely acceptable $1350. Today, at 5% that's $2000 extra. So, in order to justify the new interest rates (which will only be going up) home prices will have to go down x2.5 times. Which is not going to happen.
Nothing can go down more than one time (100%), in the late 80s/early 90s crash Toronto house prices went down 40% over about 7 years. Taking into account inflation/income growth a repeat would reset the market back to 2021 affordability but at much lower house prices. With the amount of debt and variable and short-term reset mortgages thats a lot of pain and a lot of jingle mail. Problem is that mortgage rates are closer to 6% than 5%, so may be an even bigger crash than the early 90s.
Thank you for the great data and appreciate you not sensationalizing with pictures and headlines
The key here is that the average annual income in Toronto is 70K and the average debt to income ratio is 1:1.86. This means that most people are spending $1.86 on every dollar earned, and that with 70K annual income most people cannot afford to buy a condo or a house, let alone groceries. QE is over. It’s QT for the foreseeable future moreover unemployment is trending upward. I suspect prices will return to 2015 valuations. This nightmare is just getting started. There’s going to be a world of pain for a great many people. The “dream” of being a RE baron/ “investor” is over.
Couldn’t agree more.
You're just a jealous renter
Exactly
won’t be 2015 price, with inflations and many immigrants, I think we could go lower but not too much.
Or, more likely scenario is that home prices continue to rise and the average income of residents increases to match that rise. Not by people earning more money, but by those with higher incomes moving to the city. It's the same thing that happened in places like NYC, London, etc. Everyone calling for home prices to "crash" recently is just wishful thinking and tells that the opposite will likely happen.
Construction cost are up 1.5 which means if you estimated a construction cost (budget) of $350.00 the cost is now $525.00 - what does this mean - ever project in construction now is most likely under water - best case or the builder - brake even - no profit - and most likely - a big loss !!
Who's going to build going forward? supply tanks and prices remain high.
Construction labour will remain high, government fees will remain high, materials will remain high, land prices will remain high. If builders can't make money thru won't build, supply dries up while millions flood into the country. Low prices are a pipe dream and that ship sailed a long time ago
Exactly. Everyone is saying that there will be a crash when the cost of literally everything has increased in price and the population grew 4% last year alone.
@markadler8968 What goes up, comes Down.( Even Wallstreet says that)😅
Let's stop flooding the country then
Not really![ look what had Happened in US in 2008 meltdown]. Prior to that property were hot cakes n prices were almost doubling- never seen before in US.
( In next 5 to 10 years the Early Babyboomer will be gone, leaving some vaccume) n then years to followed by the next set of Babyboomers!
As an 18 year old im just gonna say I wish I could find a place to rent comfortably but everything is going for at least 3k/month and thats not even considering whose gonna rent you out at 18... I'm not asking for much i would be more than happy with a studio but there are none I can afford 😭
I started in a rooming house in 1978, it was nasty, educational but affordable
House price has not come down enough given the rate increase.
It’s going right back up soon. People will go crazy again once rates start coming down. I’ll book mark this so I can come back in 3 years and see where the housing market is
@@Lifeisapartydresslikeitonly if you want to live in the 3rd world where every house has a 10ft steel fence
what boggles my mind is how many people can afford a home costing over 500K + me and my wife work jobs making $25/h and we cannot find a home for less then 400K which is where we are comfortable paying in this city of 55K people, are there other homes for 250K-300k sure but they require massive repairs or new roofs or siding or just old outdated interiors which would mean spending another 30-50k to fix. The homes where you could be happy buying and they in a year or two redoing the kitchen and such just do not exist at the price we want. Just south of me in NY state our $400k would buy a very very nice house in a nice neighborhood. I am starting to feel that its cheaper to move to another country and start a new life with new job then it is just to buy a home in this Country.
there is something fundamentally wrong with this country when you see from 2016 till now prices have more then doubled for condos let alone homes. I think it should be illegal for you to sell a property that you have owned for less then 5 years as a condo and for residential you should only be allowed to own 2 homes max and if you want to own more it must be multi unit rentals.
I would never buy housing in Canada and making plans to leave within 6 months .. I refused to support blind bidding … and developers are building huge luxury homes in vacation areas and they are selling
My sister and I are considering the exact same scenario and because we both work in Healthcare and tech the opportunities and standard of living is way higher in the States. If only it weren't for the guns😂
I think one thing left unmentioned is the occupancy period.
With how high rates are, the occupancy fees are going to be massive, and who knows how long the occupancy period is going to be.
Especially with record levels of completions, it could take the city a long time.
They are massive. Now $3000 on a one bedroom
The interest portion is also higher because you’re basically having to pay the builder’s rate with the lender
@@keepitreato Yup & higher now. Our interim occupancy was Nov 22 - Feb 23 and it was already at $3000 for a 1 bdrm and that was a few rate hikes ago, people are going to be in for an extraordinary shock. Especially if projects arent done on time (none really are post covid still) as mine was just as late as most others. There's already a difference in quality too within the buildings in my corporation with the last building being made the worst/cheapest. Had a repair person come in for my washer, he said he gets non-stop calls/issues from the other building do to poor configuration that was supposed to be the same as my building but ended up being pounded with "cost-cutting" measures to finish the project. materials used in that building just looked a lot different too. Yet were being robbed by rising condo fees yet are being told of more and more scale-backs to what we're paying through the nose for. I wouldn't be getting into new condos now, nope, yet Ontario is banking on new housing via condos and being one of the only places with interim occupancy periods it's only going to get messier if things don't correct somehow. Then you get those loser landlords (who refuse to pay their own mortgages) who try to dupe people into moving into these units to cover the cost of the interim occupancy which hahaha, nope! My building was EMPTY during our interim occupancy, they couldn't get tenants, took nearly a year to get to the capacity were at now. Must be some mighty rich landlords to burn through all that cash while it sits empty (:
Great video. With the amount of mortgages renewing in the next 1-2 years that are currently at very low rates and will jump up significantly, things don’t look good.
I live in Barrie. My two bedroom condo soared and still hasn’t come down much. Sucks that condo boards are ruthless and crooked.
Are they still selling?
Who? I’m not. Maybe if I move to Texas permanently @@lori9423
The real question is how many investors can afford the 40% increase in costs? Most can not which is why theyre all going for sale...
The actual question is: can end users? If not then nothing new gets built and rents keep going up as new supply goes to 0
As usual it is the renters that suffer the most from displaced buyers with $$ getting pushed down to rent when supply is limited.
Investors will just pass down the cost to the renters. Sane investors are there to invest, not to let it sit and waiting for the price to go up, which means renting it out.
The real question is: Why is being able to live with a roof over your head seen as an investment? It should be a right. The so-called investor in the housing market need to be tracked down. Nobody should be able to own (through him or a company) more than 2 dwelling properties. AirBNB needs to be tracked down and banned from this country. This whole system needs to be flipped over. How much time do you think it's gonna last? A decade or two? When 30 % of the population will live in the streets, unable to pay for the smallest 1 room apartment, what do you think will happen then?
I don’t subscribe to real estate channels… until now. Best breakdown I’ve stumbled upon. 👍
Thank you Justin. Great work.
People still forget that interest rates are lower than the real rate of inflation, so investors are still encouraged to take on debt. We need rates to be higher than inflation. And , the low down payment requirements are also causing this problem because it leads to too much demand of overleveraged homeowners who shouldnt be buying in the first place and highly leveraged speculators. The minimum down on a condo should be 40 or 50% even. That would discourage underqualified home buyers and "land banking" and bring prices down to a more sane 2012 level.
right..but for most young poeple that can't afford a house condo's were supposed to fill that gap and now they are supposed to have %50 down? that doesnt add up.
@@specvrossyoung people should consider building a house out of dirt and cobblestone in Minecraft because that's all they are ever going to realistically afford. Interest rates should be 0.01% and down payments 1% so that speculators can just completely buy out the market and cause a total collapse of everything. That's the only way young people have any chance.
@@specvross They can be patient and save the money. No one needs to order Uber Eats or go on holidays abroad. Higher down payment requirwments combined with higher interest rates would be enough to deter amateur investment and bring prices down to 2012 or even earlier levels. All prices post 2008 are artificial asset appreciation from BOC money printing.
We also need to eliminate the public insurance backstopping of Canadian mortgages. Its unfair to burden the taxpayer with risky mortgages. If I was a lender and the government wasnt backing anything, I wouldnt approve any low down payments and Id be very hestiant to approve the mortgages of private sector workers who will just end up loosing their jobs to AI in 5-10 years .
@@thunderbird4709 correct! And stay out of the coffee shop drive through! and don’t get me started about cellphone plans…
I'm hoping there will be a housing crisis so I can buy cheaply when I sell a few houses in 2024. As a backup plan, I've been thinking about purchasing stocks. What advice do you have for choosing the best buying time? On the one hand, I continue to read and see trading earnings of over $500k each week. On the other side, I keep hearing that the market is out of control and experiencing a dead cat bounce. Why does this happen?
Investing in real estate and stocks might be a wise choice, particularly if you have a sound trading plan that can get you through profitable days.
You're not doing anything wrong; you simply lack the expertise necessary to make money in a bad market. In these difficult circumstances, only really skilled experts who were forced to witness the 2008 financial crisis could expect to generate a large wage.
Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful.
Finding financial advisors like Margaret Johnson Arndt who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I appreciate this. After entering her full name into my search bar, her professional web page surfaced as the top result. Her impressive qualifications undoubtedly speak volumes about her expertise
Excellent detailed parsing of the data Jordan. Impressive.
Just like any market it is going to correct....don't ever expect it to correct to what you saw before.
It's been about 30 years since I've seen "under the power of sale".
Most of the power of sales are due to private mortgages maturing and the appraised value has dropped and they cannot find a replacement mortgage. A major issue is people take out mortgages they cannot afford. If they could, they could easily be approved with a rent to own product and the house could be saved. Most people that are in bank mortgages, simply renew so the default rates are actually down from last year according to all the major banks.
Lol, the variable rates for a large % of people haven't even switched over yet. The real burn is coming in a couple months. I'm looking forward to it as a buyer.
Avg household income less than 80k in Canada do the math .
Thank you.
Yeah
Refugees will take up the slack!!! 😂😂😂
GOOD! The reckless over spenders who fueled the nonsense getting bit in the butt is the best thing that could happen. Hope many have to sell at a huge loss. Thats KARMA for the situation they fueled the country into.
I don't understand why Trudeau continues to keep the door open for immigration in these conditions??
To make the poverty level more... To make more beggars, homeless, jobless people😢
That seems to be the result, but how does that benefit Trudeau?@@gowoohno5424
Cuz immigrants can afford luxury homes and huge farms and tracts of land that’s why.. most Canadians can’t
@@stephey808 yeah cause they stuff 10 of them in one unit
Globalist migration
In c01 condos I believe that we are in a buyers market with over 6 months inventory
Great video I've been calling this for years. But yet people are still buying units ahem q tower for $1700 per foot and 50k + in closing costs
Great news! Unfortunately, houses in this country, on average, are still selling for nearly three times their actual worth, so there's a lot that still needs to happen before reality comes crashing down on the heads of the moneyed class. I'm looking forward to every step of the journey, even though the country is going to be pushed to the breaking point because of the unbelievable fucking greed of investors, flippers, Boomers, and all the other criminals who have completely destroyed this once-great country.
Well said. One demographic slice tried to hijack our entire economy and society.
Toronto's own Harmozi. Great vid.
Honest appraisal of market. Thanks
Solid analysis - subscribed
Awesome. It needs correcting. First time home buys never had a chance in Toronto any ways. Not without wealthy contributions from family or whatever. Speculators, free money lending and people who don't understand how debt works have caused the problems.
The problem is that it will not correct. Even a moderate decrease in listing price is offset by cost of capital. When rates ease in the next 12-24 months, prices will rocket up again. There's a massive demand/supply imbalance that will take literal decades to resolve, and only if good policy is signed. The sample size this video highlights is not a proper analysis of the greater issues or the underlying factors. The problems are almost solely derived from bad policy - not speculators, low rates or "people who don't understand how debt works"...
@@scottwilson1682 Bad policy encompasses all of that and then some. That's just some of it. If you were to define what the bad policies are. What would they be? That is true as well. It won't correct enough to make a difference for the poor. You could build a million houses in Toronto and the wealthy/speculators will still buy up as much as they can. It's the one way the average person can make more money with ease. Why not own and rent 5+ houses if one could. There are so many people with so much money that it's always going to be an uphill battle for the people with little. If not the houses, then it will be the land itself. Perhaps less immigration to Toronto (Bring them to more affordable cities) It's not like Canada has too many people either. We don't have enough people in fact. A lot of the issues are mostly in southern Ontario / British Columbia only. Canada is huge. There are many cheaper and more affordable places to live in Canada. There are not all the same issues elsewhere that is there is in the Toronto area. I'm not saying it is perfect else ware either, but it is a lot more manageable. A lot of the major portion of Torontos issue are not all that old either. It wasn't all that long ago that you could buy a house (yes, a small one but...) in Toronto for the mid hundreds of thousands. The last few years has caused the most issue. Cheap mortgages, speculation and to many people coming to the city are a contributing factor for sure. Then throw a pandemic in there and let people lose their minds. It's the perfect storm. Just to state "some" of the obvious. Then add on other things like high tax and anything else. Compound it all with government officials who all get paid very well, can eat and have houses so they don't need to care about poor people issues. Where was all this talk 5 years ago. I know it was there. It just wasn't so prominent until recently once to many people started driving the costs up so high in Toronto. Whenever else have you seen prices go up in such a short period of time like the last few years. More houses will help for sure. But they still won't cheap either. It's the easiest way to make the most money for the average person. Own multiple properties and rent them. It's a win for the government also. More houses mean more people which also means more taxes for the government to give away. Why would they not want that? Why do so many people need to be in Toronto and area anyway? Supply is an issue yes. But so are many factors.
How many listings are under power of sale?
Tiff is smiling 👆
Excellent work! very honest and objective. You have gained a sub. Thank you for your work
There is so much to unpack. There are many reasons why this is happening. Toronto is just unaffordable to buyers without the backing of previously sold property to help of the family. Also, with the higher rates. Many are moving to Alberta where I work and not looking back.
6.39 is a great image to see !folks need more visibility on that and get a second opinion at renewal time!
Two weeks ago, Minto dropped the price on their new bungalows in their Manotick (Ottawa) project by 100k.
They obviously know the market. Prices are dropping.
That would be a great place to live at a 2018 price…
FYI - s fully renovated home in central Etobicoke in my neighbourhood and across from a junior school is listed for 4.3MM insane. What young family with junior school aged kids can afford a 4MM home?????
People with rich families...there's a lot of wealth in Canada.
Simply put. do you expect a significant drop of sale price of condo or houses in a couple of years? thanks,
Thank you for the insights! Very helpful video. Subscribed!
The condo $PSF is crazy. That Mizrahi albatross 1 Bloor was the most expensive in 2016 starting around $1200 if memory serves.
Construction here, in Oakville, is on fire.
2:25 "Inventory is absolutely ripping up and to the right." It is a time chart. I hope it keeps on going to the right or we are having some sort of time paradox problem.
🤣
The 8 million rental shoe-box size units will be built in the next decade to ease the demands for Homes and lands.
The 8 million shoe-box size rental units will cost the Canadian taxpayers over $2.5 Trillion, a huge debt burden on Canada's future generations, and it would take 5 to 6 generations to be paid off.
The question is if Canada can survive that long?
You should probably step back from the ledge…
Really appreciate the analytic based content and data that your channel provides! Was curious if you know of any data basses or websites that provide reviews for individual developers? Online it is hard to find objective reviews for developers that are current and nonbiased. Or have you thought about making videos highlighting developers that you recommend? Keep pushing the great content!
Thanks for watching. First thing I'd do is check the HCRE builder database for deliveries. Then I'd check the urbantoronto forum threads on their past builds. I have to be careful posting reviews of developers, can post about the builders I like but unfortunately would almost certainly get sued posting about the ones I don't
When would you start looking for an assignment sale?
Super informative, thanks!!
Wow, please do Calgary! Great content and i would love this info for Calgary. I expected Calgary to get affected by interest rates but it seems migration haa been pretty resilient so far.
I was very close to signing a precondtruction townhome closing mid next year but i have a preconsutrction mortgage approval closing this January. I decided to not go for a preconstruction townhome for the reasons you mentioned. My contract didnt allow me to assign and I would lose my downpayment should the market dip short term or I cant get approval.
Minimum 75% was the average lost in arizona by late 2011 after the 2008 crash. This is way way more inflated then that was.. it's gonna be bad. I honestly think your gonna see lots of banks gone after this as well.
MIC"s certainly a possibility in a bad scenario, larger banks definitely not. Very different structure than the US. I'm excluding the CMHC discussion as i'm assuming you're referring to presales. Any catastrophic adjustment down will largely get bailed out by CMHC (which is effectively the Canadian tax payer, which if messed up and another macro difference between the US and CA system).
@@hrb250 Truth. The country goes down before the major banks.
@@hrb250 doesn't matter. They are all connected and the bottom line is this.. I don't care how they are structured.. they have way more debt that's flat out bad then they can possibly ever cover in a totally failing nation and economy. I understand you didn't loan as easily as the u.s. banks.. having said that home values used were fake. Sorry who appraises a homes 3 times the value right across a river. It isn't there. It's there because corrupt government period and corrupt bankers . Interest rates should've never been kept 5-6 points below average.for a decade that caused all this. Sorry nothing climbs for 30 yrs that isn't manipulated
Fantastic video. Really helpful data. Thank you.
Liked 👍 Thanks
Awesome analysis unbiased
I don't know what's going on. All I know is it's getting worse. I work 2 jobs and can't afford a place to live. 24 hr and a part time job at 18. I could rent a 4 bedroom house 10 years ago. At the price of a 2 bedroom apartment now. What's worse is I could afford that 10 years ago. With the price of everything up now. I can't afford that 2 bedroom. I have 3 kids. After child support and would be rent. I'd still be 1000 in the red. How can a person live today? I'm scared to death for my kids future.
You can’t buy precon to flip, it doesn’t make sense. You are better off not buying period if flipping is the end goal. Great video and info as always Jordan!
agreed! other investment vehicles are safer bets if in the flipping camp
@@Precondoand more ethical
Great content!
(Gotta work on that woofy audio though)
Foreclosures jump 400%! 😭 Still at near record lows...😱
Due to insane numbers of over extended mortgages that will be forced to renew at a normal term.
Great video and explained it is such an efficient manner.
Wait, so you mean prices don't always go up? Lol. Has the infinite money glitch finally been patched? If so, the HELOCs and debt used to buy all the fancy toys hasn't... ;)
Thanks for this. Great value content!
Great video! Do you have a similar one for Vancouver? 🙏
PreCondo, would you kindly make a video discussing how you would put 20million to work right now in toronto.
What are the aggregates for POS?
Solid video, subbed!
There is still too much money in the system, and in Canada real estate was the beneficiary.
Either Inflation continues feedbacking to wages w/ currency devaluation or Housing market continues to dramatically correct. The later might be the less painful, however those of us with homes may not like it, and those with mortgages --- well --- hate to say it, the banks may have not have been too forthright on their economic outlook (as they sold you a variable rate to cover their ass - but not yours)
I imagine with corrections like these, we will start to see losses on condo assignments soon.
Hey man is if there is a housing crash what does that do to condo rent prices ?
In my experience, foreclosures are exceptionally rare in Ontario. Powers of sale are far more common.
@@philipmartin2919 there are foreclosures, just exceptionally rare. I understand the situation is different in western Canada.
fact is that last 3-4 years simply were not a realistic numbers with house prices. Only a naive person could think that houses are gonna continue increasing in price EXPONENTIALLY every year. Over inflated caused with foreign purchases, local investors buying on equity loans and super low interest rates.
I would say market is collapsing when it gets to 2017-18 level prices. Everything before is just a correction from purchase frenzy in last 3-4 years.
Very good data based fact video
Preconstruction is speculative/gambling, until the house is built you are giving the developer a loan *and* accepting all of their risk, not purchasing property...
This year is a write off, however the economic data is terrible anecdotally(just talkin to people, business owners), I'm thinking 2 to 3 months and the results will reach Bank of Canada. What They will do is anybody's guess.
what do you mean by reach them?
Very interesting well done👏👏
Give it a little more time. While some of the numbers conflict this is due the relatively early nature in the of power of sale on refi, and lenders unwillingness to reduce price. They will not hold onto the inventory for long. Once they start discounting then the market crashes. Sorry for the gloom and doom. Supply and demand will take over.
Last year Fall market was the same. . Then spring 2023 prices went up.
Spring 2024 mortgage rates for both fixed and variable will be above 5%. Still very few buyers with an increased amount of sellers that need to sell. Stricter Airbnb regulations will also increase supply. If you are hoping for a bull run you will be disappointed
almost 2 years ago my buddy took out money out of his house to buy two pre con condos. I can bet his house value went down and the condo prices went down. Things are only going to get worse. I say in 2025 when rates finally lower significantly, then prices will go back up and money will start flowing again. Hope you guys can make it till 2025.
The market is going to get "worse" and thats a good thing. 1 million dollars for a reasonable single familly home is unnacceptable in a country where your average University Graduate makes 20$ an hour and and the median income is 40,000$
The current housing market is unnacceptable and rediculous.
Depends on what is meant by "Worse". Worse for buyers or sellers. But yea, housing prices are super inflated, which is why there needs to be more housing construction. I would however argue that this means the housing market is getting "Better". This means more business for the construction trades and realtors, and cheaper housing for the population. So it's goo all around.
Lol, Im a Structural Engineer and engineered Residential and Commercial bldgs. Sales for new and old houses in the country is not favorable for buyers, not the best time to buy right now. Good luck.
Great info.
Subscribed.
It's not 6-12 months for interest rates to take full affect. It's 18 months. Though I'd say it's actually longer these days as most mortgages (~60+%) have currently had no change in their payments because those on variable aren't forced to increase their payments.
I know this because I went to TD to increase my payments the day after an interest rate hike and the mortgage guy didn't even know interest rates had increased!!
Yes, but nothing goes to principle. Most of the payment just cover Interest, which is beneficial to bank
Some basement apartments want you to pay $1700, basically they want you to pay their mortgage lol gtfoh , happy I moved into my building in 2012 , I pay $1350 all inclusive a month for a 950sq ft apartment 2 bedroom 1.5 bathrooms big ass living room 🥂 😊
Not only do they want 2 grand for a shitty basement there are 50 people willing to pay it and you need to go through hoops to get them. Moteling it is more fun and I get treated so much better and housekeeping for not too much more than the average apartment cost., F u landlords!!!!
$1700 doesn't even cover half the mortgage on a house at current prices and interest rates in GTA 😂
God knows what the hell you're talking about...
In some states blackrock is buying 30% of properties on the market
I wonder what that percentage is in the provinces
Very impressive info
I think the troubles are only beginning...
Good analysis. Thanks
Foreclosure are a joke in Canada. The level of mafia on the realtors is out of control. They try to maximize profits even on this hard situations. Jail time for scammers
No worries, the 1.5 million newcomers will adjust the market price very soon.
Punjabi international students and African refugees are not wealthy like the chinese and persian immigrant waves of 1-2 decades ago. They dont have the means to buy real estate . They should also be offset by the death rate of canadians being much higher than the natural birth rate.
Great video!!