Did the CIA Predict the USSR's Collapse? | SideQuest Animated History
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 20 พ.ย. 2020
- The CIA is (in)famous for its involvement in regime changes across the globe, yet beyond their clandestine activities, they're also responsible with providing various predictions on geopolitical developments. The fall of the USSR was one such occurrence, but how successful was the CIA in predicting the Soviet Union's demise?
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Further Reading:
U.S. Intelligence Estimates of the Soviet Collapse: Reality and Perception by Bruce Berkowitz - www.cia.gov/library/readingro...
CIA's Analysis Of The Soviet Union, 1947-1991 by Gerald Haines & Robert Leggett - www.cia.gov/library/center-fo... - บันเทิง
I like how the CIAs predictions were basically just every possibility was possible.
Except for the one which played out in the end
@@phlvn100 do you mean the one where the army eventuallu actually fired on citizens?
well, it was possible
@@midshipman8654 I mean, it happened before in the USSR.
and one must add, USA (the powerful people in it) never wanted a full collapse of USSR, it would be USA without an enemy and people cannot be terrorised with red terror and repressed that easily
Ironically, the Chernobyl disaster was first detected was when the Swedish nuclear power plant technician discovered that the radiation levels were higher outside then inside the reactors containment building.
I'm so sorry but,
Than*
@@emperorgabe6545 Who cares? English spelling is all over the place anyway
Chernobyl dint have a cantainment building
@@georgyekimov4577better fix the spelling or the emperor will come back
@@emperorgabe6545if you hate being that guy and are apologizing….WHY ARE YOU BEING THAT GUY
I like the trivia that Russia wasn't the last to leave the USSR; for a few days Kazakhstan was the entirety of the Soviet Union
LOL
It's not really a union if it's just one country. That's like a single guy in a club.
This channel is criminally undersubscribed for how good the content is.
I was about to make that very comment. Time to spread the word!
You made me look at his view and subscriber counts and I had to do a double-take. I've watched several of his videos without even noticing. I always just assumed he had hundreds of thousand or millions of viewers like many other similar channels.
If they keep it going, this thing is going to take off eventually. It is well made, it is very interesting if you just listen to it, but quite fun if you watch it too.
I haven't fact-checked it yet so much, but production alone the content is very nicely done.
I just found this channel and my first thought was "How in the hell does content this well made have such a small audienc?!"
IKR?
Fun fact : Gorbachev was the youngest member of the communist party.
He was the only Soviet leader born in USSR and not in Russian Empire
@@kostam.1113 That's crazy to think about, because it goes to show you just how short the USSR's existence actually was. The October Revolution was only 105 years ago, there's still some people born before that still alive. The USSR was declared in 1922, which this year was 100 years ago, the USSR collapsed 30 years ago, which means it only existed roughly 70 years, which so far has been the same length Queen Elizabeth has been the Queen.
Much more fun fact is that even Gorbachov was claimed by GKChP as ill and unable to run an office, he is still alive, but all members of GKChP - not
He definitely wasn't the youngest member of the communist party. But he was the youngest member of the central committee (sovet goverment)
@@leuri397 That didn't age well.
Imagine the faces of CIA employees when they were betting on violent civil war but that one guy who was laughed at everyone turned out be right in predicting peaceful transition of power
Well, he wasn't right either
If you call massive protests, tank blocakdes, people getting killed and soldiers shooting in the air and beating civilians with the butt of their rifles as "peaceful" then yeah
Peaceful Transition?
😂
If you had told anyone in Western military or intelligence agencies in the late 1980's that the Soviet Union was going to come apart and cease to exist within the next few years in a peaceful way, they all would have laughed at you. Yet, it definitely happened. Who would a thunk it??? I am sure that they were glad to have been wrong about this one. Another great video! Please keep the outstanding videos coming and God bless you, my friend!
These elites still run things from academia to corporate America. Mises and the like predicted its collapse back in the 1920s.
Thunk needs to be a word
Eh between the gerogian invasion in 2008 Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 it wasn't technically peaceful just not immediate. Oh yeah Armenia and Azerbaijan are increasing hostilities again.
Chechnya be like
The Soviet Union citizens and soldiers were so depressed and weary after decades of oppression that they had no appetite for bloodshed anymore.
It's really weird that they let the ussr die without a fight. A global superpower just dying without a bullet being fired is so unusual.
Because they're white?
It is acrually fairly common. 2 examples: the macedonian and mongol empire.
There were some fights, but were small compared with the size of the USSR, because at that point only the hardliners thought the Union could be saved and they also didn't have full control of Russia.
The USSR was already dead at that point.
@@EduardoEscarez exactly my point. Some small fights don't matter. The size of ussr merited at least a small civil war.
@@lt8833 yeah like the time of the first russian civil war.
In my opinion, collapse of ussr is like a slowed bomb. Conflicts did not appear immideatly, but they began appearing in 1992 in Moldova, 1996 in Chechnya, 2008 in Georgia and in 2014 in Ukraine
Well it matches the end of Gorby's reign, the following leaders (the kleptocrats Eltsin and Putin) were no more to consider imperialistic war and human suffering as a no go zone. The only very very bad thing that Gorbatchev has done was that pizza-hut ad, it killed his legacy for russians and abroad
All of those are completely made up and could have been avoided. That is the main difference between Gorbachev and Yeltsin/Putin. Gorbachev tried to prevent them (most of the time). Yeltin didn't care. And Putin thrives on conflicts and deaths.
@@shmoola Yeltsin manufactured Transnistria because Moldova was keen on joining Romania. This was dangerous for Russia.
Same with 2008 Georgia and 2014 Ukraine = West oriented nations means they move away from Russian ownership.
This is why Russia manufacturers these conflicts, and it's not exclusive to Putain. It's Russia that is this way
@@multidoor6928 this is all comlete bullshit, all we want is be a normal part of humanity without being fucked with like Iraq or Yemen or Sudan or Syria or dosens of other sovereign countries US coldbloodedly broke and robbed.
And 2022 in Ukraine again
Well it wasn't completely bloodless. There were crackdowns in Georgia, Lithuania and Latvia with many dead.
Also, the following decade brought almost as much death as a civil war
Not to mention Yugoslavia had a violent civil war after the collapse of the USSR
Don’t forget Chechnya. Сан даймохк…
Great stuff as always can’t wait for my next side quest trip.
As a russian i always expect some propagandistic kind of viewpoint when a western youtuber talks USSR’s history, but this vid is quite objective and the statements are based on facts. That’s great, keep it up!
Well it is hard to get impartial history, isn't it?
Don’t worry … the US history is full of holes … historians makes it seem like the US was empty before the US came from England … no one even knows how mexico lost half its country to the US… slavery in the US isn’t event taught well… but on another note, this vide did predict Ukraine in 2022 with scenario #1
@@docouchi7929 slavery isn’t taught in school? What school did you go to man slavery was like the one of the three things I learned about in history class the other two being the revolution and civil war.
@@twomp5613 this is what they taught… slaves were brought, civil war happened, slaves were freed and everyone lived Happily ever after … didn’t teach much about anything else… and i went to public school in LA lol … public school system was soooooooo Garbo … in college when you see people from other schools you see exactly how bad it really was
@Tuckingfypos This same thing in Canada. I see someone share some post on social media saying we were never taught X and Y yet I sat in the same classrooms as them which taught that very same thing. Probably some of it was on the test too.
Also, the expensive and failed war in Afghanistan had severely affected the economy and the military's morale.
And the USA decided to make the same mistake.
2:10 Easily my favorite joke
Wow, recognizing that the aftermath of the events that happen 30 years ago are still currently playing out is a trip. It’s crazy to realize that I’m almost as old as the current Russian government.
Isn't that just everything though? I mean if you go back far enough, we are witnessing the aftermath of the birth of Rome leading to much or modern western language and society. I mean just about every event in history is connected.
Binged all your videos, your production value is insane! Worthy of millions of views youll be there in no time!
What a gem, just found this channel and it's so well done. Deserves way way more subscribers.
5:24 fired in what instance? Was it a sarcasm? Right 1991 started with Russian OMON attacks on Lithuania with deaths of civilians and border patrols (the only one terrorist attack in history of Lithuania). And Lithuania got out easily compared to mess in the South.
Apologies for not being clearer; the line you're referring to talks about the state of affairs at the end of 1990, before the Vilnius attacks. You're correct that bullets had been fired up until then, in Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, so I should've added the word "almost" to my statement. Nevertheless, most of these deaths were cases of ethnic violence between republics, so I would hesitate to put 100% of the blame on the central government here.
@@SideQuestYT Great videos. But I would say the background music was too loud for this one. I'm of the opinion that background music is NOT necessary. People want to hear you talk/get information not hear generic background music.
Well, the violent part is playing out now.
Thanks for this video! It clearly explained how close Gorbachev was to rebranding and saving the union in the face of increasing polarization
In my opinion, the idea of "what if Gorbachev's rebranding of the USSR succeeded" is probably the most underrated alt history question this side of WWII.
Where the hell has this channel been this whole time
This channel is AMAZING
Keep it up!! Your videos are on par with other top history channels! Hope you get there!
The fact that identifying the song in the background isn't the main, consistent commentary challenge for alleged "fans" of this channel (at least as it seems from the comments) is beyond me. It's probably the most interesting, challenging, subtle, and nuanced things about the channel... but nobody seems to notice? I've watched maybe 6 or 8 of these videos now and they consistently take amazing musical works (many, frankly, a bit esoteric but usually quite well known or genre defining), but then shift them in timing/key and instrumental timbre/pitch, but somehow nobody seems to notice (or care). Regardless of what you might have noticed and appreciated, there's some audio producer/editor out there punting out fucking genius level golden nugget tracks that is criminally under appreciated.
Hey, the CIA was right about the autocratic oppression idea, it just took Russia about 10 years to get there!
Because Yeltsin was a stalwart of liberal democracy wasn’t he
@ALivingSomeone most sane Russians stands with Putin, Russia would further disintegrate into smaller states if Putin never got into power
Russia has more freedom now than it's previous 800+ year history. Kinda depressing.
@@valorzinski7423 Yeah, sure it would
Putin especially wants you to believe that.
Yes, 80% of Russians support Putin, 20% are sober.
The CIA didn't predict shit, they simply stated every possible outcome: The USSR keeps going, the USSR collapses, something in the middle
Which is... pretty much what anyone could have done
of course - they were also preparing the fallout and operations if those scenarios happen, it isn't just sitting around and "well.. i think this is gonna happen" at their job
the first thing they teach intelligence analysts is not to predict the future. that isn't their job
it's to give policy makers the possibilities they need to handle whatever decision happens
These vids are such high quality. Can't wait for you to be at 1 mil subscribers and see what you can do with patreon money flowing in. Keep it up!!!
"Not a single bullet was fired" is a bit of an understatement, as there were invasions into the Baltic and Caucasus states by the USSR as they were going for independence.
Nevertheless, a great video and everything you do :)
I’m a SideQuest fan now. Keep it up fellas!!
Of all the history videos I have watched, these are some of the best. I say… how the hell have I not seen you before ? Subbed immediately. Only wish I found you sooner
It was a great watch, thanks! Wish you everything best
I love your videos and I am sad that you don't have enough subscribers for all your hard work!
This channel’s a diamond in the rough. Keep it up.
Great video!
I just wanted to mention that the “collapse without a single bullet” claim is not completely correct. Sure, there was no war between the USSR and the newly independent republics (though for example the Bloody Sunday in Lithuania might be seen as such) but there was a plenty of fighting within the republics prior and post independence. The war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh and the war in Moldova would be the most notable examples (and they are definitely not the only ones, war in Georgia would be another one, potentially even the Tajik civil war, as it was a direct implication of the collapse in influence from Moscow). So yes, you are absolutely right that it might have been much worse but it was not as peaceful as it might seem from this video. :)
Nevertheless, I love your channel, keep up the good work! :)
Absolutely stunning
Love the content!
Fantastic video!
Do collabes and help spread the word about your channel. Reach out to those history channels similar to yours like Overly sarcastic and Extra Credits and ask them to work on a 2 video series with you to help their audiences find out about you as I'm sure they'd come back for more. You can even offer to help write the scripts or whatever they want.
Incredible video!
Whoever the voice actor for this channel is, you're doing a brilliant job.
Its got that perfect public school/upper class/ posh c**t tenor to it, that i have absolutely no trouble understanding you, but i expect youre going to do something that i won't like very much.
,,Ah those were the days, on the Siberian railway.'' lol
Just discovered this channel... your voice is magnificent!!!
Sincerely, a newfound & eager subscriber :)
In the three or four days since I discovered this channel, your number of subs has more than doubled. Congrats on the success and cheers for plenty more to come
incredible content & wonderful work! subscribed & notifications.
4:20 oh that is a brilliant way of presenting that map.
Watching this again in the wake of Gorbachev's death.
he was my favorite pizza hut commercial
i came across this channel this evening on accident and have now watched all 17 videos in a row. i hate you. and you are awesome.
Nice video
Yo I really like your videos
Looks like you're starting to explode in subs @sidequest! Finally
One could argue that the break up is still happening and that violence has absolutely been used even before this video was made.
The relatively peaceful transition of power took everyone by surprise. In its aftermath, in the field of international relations, the social constructivism school of thought took shape.
Everything looks right except the election part. First of all there has always been an "election" with only one candidate where you could only agree or disagree. But what Gorbachev did is a real election between parties and communist party won with 80%, but hardliners still saw it as a loss
please make more content i love u
At 4:18 the blood splatter in the shape of red Russia is perfect.
I just found out about side quest I cant stop watching dam it
Is it really a "prediction" when its your goal to make something happen? If I want eggs, and I say "i will make eggs" did i predict the future?
I love the PSH character from Charlie Wilson’s War cartoon. The animation style on this channel is brilliant.
3:10 why put yugoslavia on the iron curtain?
good video
Fuck yes, sidequest time
TH-cam give this Gentleman a place in the recommendations or even at home page.
The young reformers weren’t communists. They claimed to be but when Gorbachev reformed the Soviet system they proved themselves to be quasi neo liberals by simple metric of their voting patterns.
well turns out most people do hate communism so yea.....
@@007kingifritcommunism is when marxism leninism
@@Wagangga_Ed_Lingk all socialism is communism, "the goal of all socialism is communism" -lenin
@@007kingifrit but he’s a marxist leninist
@@007kingifrit he wasn’t a marxist leninist but he’s only one guy a lot of people follow lmao
4:19 , well done
Here, have my sub, gentleman!
You forgot to mention the storm of some governmental building with those very tanks
watching the later half of the video, i was basically just thinking damn the piano really is just going hard in the background
Interesting point about the “civil war” part… maybe a couple of decades later w/ Ukraine
How russia attacking and waging proxy war in Ukraine is "civil war"
The background music fits so well! What is the title of this specific performance of this song?
Glad you like it! It's a special version of Hungarian Dance; you can find it on my Patreon.
@@SideQuestYT Thank you
There has been quite a bit of violence since the break up thirty years ago. No one was really doing strategic thinking this far out.
You deserve so many more subs !!
Mikhail Gorbachev Is Still Alive
Fortunately not. Except on the condition that he moved his consciousness into pizza. =))
I have a found a gem 💎
This channel
Here when a big channel is small.
Commenting to help with traction
1:30 damn that sounds like something like king von would say about 63rd
I'd totally have a beer with Yeltsin.
He'd drink 165.
And 20 vodka shots
In 1910 if you told an Indian that after 200 years of occupation the British would just willingly and peacefully leave India without firing a shot in the near future... they would have likely thought you were insane.
Yet that's precisely what happened. In both cases of USSR and British Empire, the Superpower died pretty peacefully and without a fight.
(However, this isn't technically true as a fight did take place before the collapse. Be it Afghanistan or WW2 which bankrupted both Empires. But this isn't a civil war at least)
Its easy to predict things that you personally orchestrate
RIP Gorbi
Did you go past 1991 in your video and into the Great Gulf Wars of 1990 and 2010 in Iraq??? 🇮🇶 I really loved this story in the USA! 🇺🇸 And then oh man there was 9/11 which was just sad 😞. And Sacramento could be a West coast puppet federal government after the bittersweet covered up 2021 Insurrection. But I am getting ahead of myself. Thanks man for allowing us autonomy across Russian and Through the historical heartlands of Japan and China 🇨🇳.
A series of combined videos like this will be fun 😂!!!
But… I guess it’s hard to understand your idea for the direction of the channel but I will respect your decision. You seem like a good British History TH-camr just as powerful as Extra History and Oversimplified.
Suggestions besides World War 2:
The Gulf war
This channel can reach 1M subscribers easily. It's only a matter of time until the algorithm picks it up.
Might want to rethink this video today. The predicted anarchy and death has come.
Who wants more, nfkrz made very good video on topic
No one really could predict that the Union would break up, a majority of people wanted it to stay together and up until the KGB coup it was nearly assured that Russia would enter into a new type of Union.
That would be interesting.
And Gorbachev was still alive to this date, April 22, 2022.
been looking for an out of tune Brahms' Hungarian no 5 all over, can't find it, where'd you get this one?
This is still a pretty reductive take on the whole thing, but hey, way better than your average history youtuber!
It's impossible to sum it all up in 8 minutes, but they did it pretty well!
This dude is to people trying to hide in history fun facts what anime is to people trying to hide in their childhoods. Glorious!
0:46 nothing changed about that
Well "peaceful" in relative terms only. No nukes and large scale wars but still several violent figths like for Lithuania, in Moldova, Caucasus etc.
The video was spot on. As a college graduate in 1990 who had two conversations with a CIA recruiter in 89 and 90, the CIA did not have a clue, and the US had little to do with the collapse of the USSR. They were gearing up for it to last awhile and needing a bunch of young people from eastern Europe. After 1991 a lot of these young CIA recruits got pink slips.
No offense but why would a CIA recruiter one, know anything worthwhile, and two, tell it to some random college kid? With that being said I am not inclined to assume that our government possesses competency in much of anything.
It looks like we've finally arrived at option 2. :-|
I wonder if rebranding the USSR would've worked had a coop not been attempted!
Oh there's one mistake though, there were bullets fired. If you wonder, bloody sunday in lithuania, 9 april tragedy in georgia and 20 january(black january) in azerbaijan were just some of them.
Simo Hayha outlived it,
My phone battery caught alight at the end of the video....
Placing Yugoslavia behind the Iron Curtain is just not accurate.
👍
Always interesting to see how Estonian islands are rarely marked as part of Estonia - just the way they'd like it.
How is the background music called?
Interpol and kgb next