Who knew that having a very top heavy authoritarian aristocratic ruling class caring only for themselves would have disastrous consequences for the people below them
My wife is Chinese and keeps me updated on their social zeitgeist. She says the government seems more popular than ever these days. Also, it's been drilled into Chinese people that the Century of Humiliation was caused by disunity and that China needs a strong central government to survive.
@@nope7389 Yeah, that was a huge reason. I'm just saying that the Chinese people are very aware of that fact, and it will take a lot to make them disunify again. "Chinese people will never fight for rights, but always for food".
@R H What does your wife hear about the social zeitgeist now that people died in a locked up apartment tower in Urumchi, millions saw people without masks at the World Cup and Jiang Zemin has died?
@@alanparsonsfan In the past few days, China has seemed to walk back COVID restrictions in response to the protests, and is removing daily PCR test requirements in some cities. She says the lockdowns are still popular with govt employees who get paid no matter what happens, but unpopular with average people who can't work at their jobs and don't get sufficient subsidies. She's been seeing subtly subversive memes being shared about government overreach and freedom. There is also a rumor of a scandal in Beijing's PCR test company paying the mayor $40 million and causing false positive tests to trigger lockdowns (requiring expensive mitigation services) or causing false negative tests (to allow the spread of COVID, again requiring services.) I haven't seen anything about that in Western media yet, but a couple of Chinese people told me about it like it's a fact. Regarding the world cup mask thing, she said everyone already knew the rest of the world was back to normal.
Let's not forget that coastal China is packed with relatively wealthy people who would be able to take a plane or boat and flee China if it suffered civil war. It would make the 2015 migrant crisis look like a couple of lads visiting for some sightseeing.
@@jacobbrassard2776 Yes and no. Here in Australia Asians are our biggest minority. You're right that they do very well educationally and economically, but they are highly ethnocentric and generally side with the Chinese government on everything, regardless of how long they have been here.
True. The most wealthy Chinese & CCP leaders have been covertly acquiring properties in the West for years, and storing capital overseas in anticipation of expatriating given the opportunity. The unspoken attraction of acquiring wealth, for many, is to leave China- and I think they see the writing on the wall. It’s very dangerous to be a Chinese billionaire under this regime, especially if your plans to bail are uncovered.
@@victorcode2075 They're also incredibly nepotistic, once one gets into the hiring management it becomes basically impossible for any other ethnicity to join the company.
I think another question that could be asked is how would the collapse of China affect the rest of the world and America in particular. On the one hand, the collapse of China could be similar to the collapse of the Soviet Union, wherein the USA would turn back to its internal problems and likely liberalize further. Still, on the other hand, the US and the rest of the world is far more reliant on China than they ever were on the Soviet Union. It'll be interesting to see how they adapt to a world where China is at best fractured and ineffective. Maybe you could do a video on this in the future?
Greater Hong Kong being British or something, maybe turn Nanking into the Catholic capital of the world under the banner of the Taiping heavenly kingdom?
Personally I don’t see why we have to rely on a country that is out to screw over our culture. Go somewhere like India or Thailand, where the people in power actually don’t want to inject cultural rot into our society.
Seeing some people defend China's lockdowns by saying we're more interested in the goods and services they produce over the lives of actual Chinese people always peeved me for reasons I couldn't put to words. Thanks for putting it to print!
Most people wish to see China's collapse. When millions starved in China in the great leap forward, there was zero aid. People have been hoping for China's collapse for 30 years now. Even this video is basically wishing that China collapses. That's just the reality for the Chinese. There is no savior. People want them to fail. Their destiny is in their own hands if they work hard at it. Always was, always is, always will be.
@@henli-rw5dw given the fanatical reality of Maoist Great Stumble Backward…. How exactly could other people have helped and would the Great Steersman even accepted any aid?
@@brianmiller5444 Why you think west sanctioned China back then? To help them? No, obviously hoping the communists would starve as they did. It not a secret that everybody wishes ill of the Chinese. They are on their own. People have been wishing doom on them for 30 years.
as someone who lives in China right now, I would say the situation outside of the Shanghai is not as bad as you pictured. But the situation inside Shanghai is far worse than even you have pictured. If the central authorities keep up with their ludicrous decision-making, then disaster certainly looms in the horizon. I don't think the populace is capable of doing anything radical though, since most of them are sheepish, drenched in self-loathing most of the time and do not have the will to fight.
There is another possibility. Yes, the regime will change but China won't collapse. Historically, it happened two times that China was re-unified by a tyrant who had a short lived dynasty. That dynasty was replaced to create the more balanced long-term dynasties we know about (like suei to tang period). Dynastic collapse was usually because of weakness and not tyranny
It's hard to say since regime change in China takes decades, not years. Just the transition from Imperial to Communism last time took 50 years. Expect your kids to be the one to watch the outcome on TV, you may not live long enough to see the endgame.
Of course China won’t go away forever but they usually have an interregnum period of decades or centuries between dynasties. With the way China and the rest of the world are these days this would mean an enormous amount of suffering, famine, and possibly regional war.
I thought Whatifalthist was at least a semi mature person but after seeing the 3 hours of his petty arguing against Vaush, I'm dissapointed. He talks like a manchild and he clearly shows signs of not being able to have any kind of proper discussion with a normal human being. I'm genuinely surprised as to how much of a different person he seems in this videos compared to live social interactions. Jesus christ.
Seriously! Been saying this for a while now. It's crazy how much better these videos would get if he just spent a little time cleaning up his scripts (removing offensive / dated language) and either buying a higher quality microphone or getting someone else to do the narration. He's really, really holding himself back here.
While there maybe turmoil within the CCP I just can't see anyone actually splintering off and forming their own seperate government. Chinese nationalism and aversion to seperatism is just too strong for that to happen. Whats more likely to happen is a palace coup where another clique takes power in the CCP and heads in a different direction while most of the country is left in the dark about whats happening.
I was born, grew up and received most of my education in China. I'm now living overseas, working with people from diverse backgrounds. I love the comparison of China with France. The similarities between the 2 cultures were what drove to study French on my own. Reflecting on my own education, it's a bitter sweet experience. Sweet in that it was very easy to find a sense of belonging as it's been emphasised throughout my school years that students need to score high collectively to bring honour to the class. Bitter in that there was very little room for individual development as a person. I along with many others was often seen as an ex machine oir teachers could use to get a pay rise. In recent years I can see with my own eyes how much China has gone backwards. I'm under the impression that the main reason for this is due to the total destruction of its cultural foundation. The cultural revolution has such profound ramifications in reshaping China as a whole and unfortunately the ruling party decided to put a stop to reflecting on the damage done by simply putting ir as a mistake, now it's been corrected as a daring but difficult attempt to achieve communism. We as a nation never truly introspect another what communism has brought to us. The party on the other hand has been meticulous in restructuring its people in every aspect. They like big fancy words such as China's great revival, for which individual difficulties are dismissed. All must work under the party's forever correct guidelines to achieve this ultimate goal. Officials don't answer to the people they manage, but to their superiors. Hence you see a lot of infrastructure projects because it's so much less effort to build a road to work your way up the ladder than actually bend down to listen to what your people are struggling with. Another example is the party's relentless persecution against any forms of spontaneous cooperation. Spontaneously forming groups or organisations to better support the community means little control the party has over their participants. And the party is extremely good at taking advantage of humanity's greed and jealousy. You're encouraged to report your neighbours, friends even family members on anything deemed unpatriotic or critical of the government. This is exacerbated with actual material rewards as further incentives. Today China's lower middle class and low class are full of these self righteous and selfish people that delight ok other people's misfortune. Empathy, sometimes even sympathy are not really taught. Everyone should be for themselves and they have an almighty government that can take care of them. This is why I agree with thr video and why I've been telling my friends around me that this communist China, just like Russia is doing nothing but bluffing. I feel sorry for the country that has such a long and rich history. But as an individual I'm glad that I'm no longer part of that society.
atomic society in which every single individual is like an atom, unable to be organized by same principal or ideology, CCP will strike on any of such attempt and has taken over every aspect in society with help of high-tech surveillance ,if dystopia gonna come true one day ,it's gonna come true in CCP's China first
In the beginning the CCP was an idiotic system that led to mass starvation. But the CCP today has evolved into a threat to Western governance because of it's efficiency. The Shanghai incident is the first weakness that I've seen so far, in that it made a decision not based on good science, but politics. No western governance today can respond to all the global issue facing humanity like the CCP can.
I love china so much and it pains me a lot to see it like this. Communism is supposed to make you help the people around you to build a better society. The CCP has become corrupted just like the western conservative parties, advocating for a fake morality that they themselves have created and act as it was always like that.
What’s to be considered when we talk about China collapsing is that there is a large industry funded by western companies as we have them make our stuff and we buy it. If that major source of labor is gone, it could have massive ripple effects. Western economies could easily collapse and companies would need to shift who they have build their stuff. India and Mexico could easily fill this role with dozens of other countries. The collapse would have winder effects on the world then any other time China has gone into its warlord period
China has made laws so chinese labor worker who works for west companies would win more money than other workers from countries such as india and mexico usually wins and this make many companies to leave but some time later they came back because what makes chinese workers different from the other examples is that they are more educated and capable for many different works even of they are more expensive many companies still operates in china
I would assume that the fall of China wouldn't be instant. Like we see right now, it would be a gradual deterioration of the state, so companies would have plenty of time to realize its time to get out and move to another (hopefully not authoritarian) country.
I feel that the fact that all these theories and predictions is based on current trajectories and inferences is vastly understated. China may collapse, but that cannot predict any actions that change the situation. So remember, don’t take this at face value. Things will keep changing
@@greenearth975 the CCP can pull a Stalin and destroys the PLA leadership to prevent a warlordization.That wont solve the problems facing China,but it will ensure that the regime stays intact until the worst has passed or a solution is found
@@greenearth975 Ramp up the infrastructure and make it actually work. Encourage social cohesion where people support one another. Fix the dating scene by forcing certain companies to keep their employee's off work more often and pouring wealth down to the populace; but also support the populace not simply through money but through economic favors and benefits outside of raw cash that also funnel resources to severely needed areas. And, IDK...make a plan to effectively govern alongside and not over 1/7th of the entire population of earth.
I think you should rely less on Turchin in your analyses. First, he's not a historian, he's a statistician, and secondly, his historical analyses overlook the fact that past demographics data aren't just that reliable - like iirc credible population estimates for the population of Rome in the 1st century vary by a factor of *four*. Because of this, it's very easy to pick and chose historically plausible numbers that conform his initial thesis. Actual modern historians tend to be skeptical of cyclical theories of history, for good reasons.
Yeah, right, except history is cyclical because humans are limited and therefore predictable. Also, China is crumbling, it's demographic situation is such that it will grow old before it becomes rich enough to handle such an old society.
@@jonathancummings6400 Humans are limited and predictable, but technology will change things in ways they can't imagine that will drastically affect the future. Just compare Back to the Future II with actual 2015. The changes in the modern world are too fast and too novel to predict using historicism* alone. *looking to the past to predict the future
Turchin is fine. His predictive power (turbulent 2020's already from 2010) is superb. But as I already said to my comment, he must rely in all details of Turchin's view, not just those that lead to a convenient conclusion.
I’d love to see an entire video on the future of America and the different scenarios that could play out. I know there’s the “Is America in Decline” video, but that one left me yearning for more from you.
China and Russia : population collapse USA : liberals coping and seething Europe : *watching in horror as Russia bleds to death on the rock that is ukraine*
The energy component is missing from this analysis. All previous Chinese collapses happened in what was basically a subsistence agricultural economy. While a broad scale revolution/social collapse is definitely on the cards, the warlords/Napoleon scenarios aren't viable in a country that imports 85% of its oil and nitrogen fertilizer. The pressure for the central government to hold is much stronger in a scenario where failure means de-industrialization and a 70% mortality famine.
Yes, I just don't see a "balkanization" of China in the cards. They have many ethnicities, but a very very long history of national identity too. They would benefit a lot more to transition to a more federalized structure maybe, instead of actually splitting up into different, competing nations. But that transition will still probably be a violent one, since they don't seem to have a path to having a national dialogue where issues could be negotiated peacefully. Perhaps their best case scenario is that the power brokers making back room deals are able to arrange a coup with a "soft landing", likely with assistance from the West who have a vested interest in keeping China from completely disintegrating.
@@keepinmahprivacy9754 50 years from now, The People's Republic of China dissolves into the "United States of China," a weak central government barely holding together a union of Chinese Provinces with more power. Basically like the European Union is today, or how the US was prior to the Civil War.
@@keepinmahprivacy9754 there's also the factor of neighboring states that either want bits of 'China' , have legitimate claims on the land (Taiwan & Mongolia), entities that want independence (Hongkong & the Uyghurs come to mind) or governments in exile that wish to free their land (eg; Tibet)
This channel provides the most in depth and comprehensive analysis I have seen and communicates very effectively to those not completely immersed in the myriad factors in play.
The average Chinese citizen has near debt levels of a US citizen despite 1/5th the income. China has 20% of its properties vacant - enough to house all of the UK. Chinese property developers are all going bankrupt. Many Chinese citizens also own two homes, one of which is not rented out to anyone - simply for its appreciation. These are blaring, LED red lights saying PROBLEM. This is on top of the demographic crisis which is the worst in history - caused directly by the CCP
So what? China is a fairly low income country with room to grow while the US is already high income economy where all the low hanging fruit for growth has been picked. In theory china can still grow its way out of the problem, albeit with a few changes in spending habits.
@@iminyourwalls8309 Chinese culture is fundamentally different to the west, when people reach 'retirement' they rarely if ever retire. its not like in the west where the government promissed generations of people unrealistic pensions. In china people have personal savings for their old age but still work till the are physically incapable of working because its considered culturally unacceptable to be unemployed. You see this even today with the elderly still holding down jobs and getting very little handouts from the government with basically no complaints.
@@iminyourwalls8309 The old people are being replaced with robots anyway, the real wealth of china will be created by automation and more efficient, localized supply chains. Hell, if china can pull the remaining 40% of it's population off the fields and into some kind of desk job, thats a huge deal. Because you can work in an office well into your old age.
I'm a US mortgage broker. The Chinese real estate bubble has begun to pop - it is showing in the defaulting of all property developers and 50% declines in sales, every month, over the past six months. The Chinese population is going to nearly halve in the next forty years. 20% of the total Chinese housing is completely empty. On top of that,the extremely high personal debt levels of average citizens. All of that is what is called a bubble. It is no different from the US Great Depression or the Japanese housing bubble - exactly a forty year period of industrialization, building a bubble in wealth assets and then subsequent collapse. These issues couldn't be worse. Seriously. China has enough extra housing to house entire nations.
As soon I heard about the demonstrations occurring in China among first things that rushed through my head was video. The question will occur in the coming weeks months and possibly years.
Cause he is making predictions with western propaganda not facts. Also since he thinks in binary, so China would be in only one of two state, either a world dominating power or civil war. His prediction is such a foolish guess, it’s kinda ridiculous.
Your channel started out with alternate histories, then used that foundation to predict alternate futures. There are many other people who attempt to make similar predictions, like Peter Zeihan. I'd be interested to hear you branch into making videos responding to their predictions with your own analysis. Or you could go the political debate route, like you did with Vaush. (Great idea, in the future avoid condescension at all costs)
That guy has admitted himself that he doesn't care about principle, he only cares about winning. He doesn't even deserve a conversation at that point, just a beating.
I love your videos and commentary, they are insightful, well researched, and nuanced. However, for the love of God please invest in a boom microphone and sound card or keep it close to your mouth. The sound quality varies a great deal and sometimes sounds like your are recording from across the room.
I think the only thing that is really holding the CCP's rule together is technologies in weapons and surveillance, that can suppress an uprising easily. The French peasants didn't have to go up against tanks and machine guns.
this is a problem for all revolutions going forward it might just mean the rebels always need some kind of insider help going forward (e.g. help from disaffected parts of the military)
The coming decades may very well be the last time in world history when revolutions by the people stand a chance. Here's to hoping that the awful regimes around the planet fall by then, before the world slowly anneals into its more permanent set of states. Some of the developing states around the world look like they have a bit more time, but the window is closing very fast for many places around the world.
I agree that the only thing keeping China together is the CCPs totalitarian system i could imagine that it isn't easy governing over 1 billion people. If a hypothetical rebellion did break out there is only so many people in government and the PLA if one domino falls they all will.
Meh, if ALL THE PEOPLE in the country would go out on the streets, there's nothing they could do. Its just when most are afraid and a tiny group wants to protest
I miss the old one but I welcome this new one! It’s cleaner and reflects him getting more professional with his production value (with his content already being top tier haha).
People here in the West vastly underestimate the amount of nation building that China and the CCP has done over the past half a century or so. Yes, China has historically been divided, with local warlords and clans having more authority over the central government but since the CCP took over, especially in the last few decades, they’ve really gone hard on uniting the country whether that be through infrastructure, education and the sino-nization of far away lands and ethnic minorities. A century ago if you go and ask people who they identify as, they would say that they are Fujianese, Sichuanese or Hainanese. If you go around the country and ask the same question today almost everyone who say that they are Chinese. Whether good or bad, the CCP has spent the past few decades wiping out hundreds if not thousands of different dialects and cultures all across the country and indoctrinating the Han Chinese culture and the standard Mandarin language. China, despite its problems today, is more united than it has ever been in its history. People from Heilongjiang on the Russian border to Yunnan in South East Asia and even places like Xinjiang and Tibet are more united than ever. I’m not saying that that is a good or a bad thing but just that the country is stronger and more united socially, economically and politically than it has ever been in its history. Children nowadays, regardless of their ethnic backgrounds, speaks fluent mandarin sometime even as a first language when their parents or grandparents might not even able to speak the language. The new generation of Chinese, those born after the cultural revolution of the 1960s and especially those born in the 90s and 2000s, are fiercely nationalistic with a strong sense of who they are as a social cultural entity in the world. Even those who are oppose to the CCP’s rule has this strong sense of nationhood attached to them. So even if this current CCP government falls, China as it stands today will continue as a nation, both culturally, socially and geographically. A country as big as China will not fall apart and disintegrate easily, despite all the wet dreams of theorists in the West, even if it’s facing a multitude of problems. For example, just look at the US. America faces as many if not more social and political problems as China and yet it still exist and will continue to exist as a country. The US is a perfect example of how a country can and will continue to survive despite a tsunami of unresolved social, economic and political issues. China will be the same. Again, it’s nice for western theorists to have wet dreams about China disintegrating completely and be under Western control just like it once was but those who predict that clearly doesn’t know the trends and developments in modern Chinese society and culture. I’m not a CCP apologist by the way, I think that their policies and actions are inhumane and unjustified. All I’m saying is that a lot of their policies, whether good or bad in our eyes, work in uniting the country and it’s people. I hope that the CCP falls and a new more democratic and humane government replace it but I just think that it’s outright ignorant and foolish to predict with certainly that an ENTIRE society, culture and identity will fall apart so easily.
This dude is making his analysis based on purely western propaganda. For example, he assumes people are starving but in reality people are complaining they are not getting some type of food they want not starving. And another ridiculous claim he made is that some how quarantine and economic downturn would break China. What a laughing stock. CCP has trashed Chinese economy in the 1960 with the Great Leap Forward and actually starved millions to death during the economic collapse and mismanagement. Yet CCP still exists. This guy has never read Chinese history. Every Chinese dynasty would endure multiple economic collapse and famine before finally collapsing.
I don’t think it would ever come to a complete collapse like that, at least not within the 15 years you have predicted. Most likely what would occur is just a change in party leadership with Hu Jintao or some other upstart faction taking the helm. The major problem is that unlike during the French and Russian revolutions which were all driven by ideological movements with decades of groundwork there is nothing of the sort in China. The absolute control by the party over all media, thought, and expression has led to a situation where there is no other alternative than the Party. When you add to this the fact that since Mao the CCP has been hardening the country against revolution since it’s founding, with Mao famously stating that “The party must control the gun.” Any sort of rebellion or popular revolution will have to contend with the Army being the sole source of power, with not even the police having any sort of real firepower. In more recent times in China physical barriers to discourage gathering along with armed checkpoints between provinces and cities have decreased any likelihood of a successful rebellion. Any rebellion in China would have to be facilitated by someone at the top and breaking party ranks, something that is unlikely when the alternative can be that person toppling Xi’s faction and becoming leaders themselves.
main problem is what will replace the CCP? there is no practical alternative from a bureaucratic standpoint... even if a new regime takes over the entire government bureaucracy will likely still be former CCP members ... they are the only ones with the knowhow at this point...
@@therearenoshortcuts9868 it’s less about no one knowing how to run a government (that never stopped a revolution before) it’s just that there is no ideological force other than maybe Chinese nationalism that would fill the vacuum. The French Revolution had decades of salons discussing enlightenment philosophy, the Russian revolution had decades of organizing by socialist movements, hell even the Chinese revolution had Sun Yat-Sen creating the philosophical groundwork for the modern Chinese state. Without something to bind people together into revolutionary action you will just get general unrest followed by a reshuffling of the elites.
@@Icyclean6969 likely will be a hypernationalist regime that replaces CCP... the only other alternative might be a corrupt populist regime that just gives "Free money" to everyone who has something to complain about... and that will just lead to bankruptcy LOL
@@Icyclean6969 If China starts a war with the US, the horrors of the blockade, war, famine, and the US funding anyone with a pulse will forment many revolutions. The CCP's downfall will happen because it must happen, or the people will cease to exist. Either way, no more CCP. And the CCP in return will cause any devastation it can. WW3 will only be started by the CCP, and if it starts, it will be very different from the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. It won't be a straight fight. CCP will work horrors.
French revolution wouldnt happen if they had cameras everywhere and people would be paranoid to notvoice any negative opinion about the state or they might be sold by someone and sent to jail
I’m curious, based on the models you showed, what countries in the world have the FEWEST of these factors which generally precipitate revolution and instability. Useful information for those of us looking to ride out any large-scale world chaos.
On the topic of authority that you discussed within the video I think an appropriate analogy would be that china, along with the majority of other east Asian nations, view authority and government as fulfilling more of parental role, a power that knows more along with whats best for them and shouldn't be question. Meanwhile Western peoples view themselves as fulfilling the parental role in the relationship with government and authority as they are responsible for questioning or explicitly stating when they are wrong, in order to guide them towards whats best for the nation.
In the other hand here in northAfrica and Middle east, people simply respect Power and status anyway, people dont think in conflict they simply think that the angriest and more confident is right one. and Authority does satisfy those feelings. its also part of culture not only between authority and people but between people themselves , they value respect, and power is the way to gain it. So they(my people) value power or the Optic of power.
I would argue that the war lord timeline is less likely. The last war lord period is still in living memory. The Chinese are willing to do anything to prevent that from happening again. I see a more likely scenario of a military coup. There are major cliques in the CCP. The Jian Je Ming clique based out of Shanghai still has a lot of power. Also durring the day in 1989 that didn’t happen, some of the PLA was rebellious. I feel that if they can see the writing on they wall they would not support Xi. After all the Chinese love China not the CCP. I think a military coup is more likely and China adopt a not entirely representative but two party government to keep corruption down. Think of it as local officials electing big officials . One thing is sure though. If things get bad China will try to take Taiwan to keep some legitimacy. You over estimate the local people who most are too dead inside to do anything. A top down crisis is much more likely. Also Christianity might become way bigger. It already has more followers than CCP members and the Chinese Christians are very passionate.
A military coup? Unlikely, internally the CCP describes the PLA soldiers as "little emperors". I don't think the Chinese people are thinking about preventing a warlord period right now. As for Christianity, it's a massive wildcard how it will play out. Especially as the religion meets traditions and philosophies. Confucionism is on the rise too. One of China's Emperors claimed to be Jesus's brother and it ended up a complete disaster, so anything can happen.
dude your videos are packaged up so well with all the key points lined up perfectly, really helps me understand and put it all together. You would make an awesome teacher/historian. thanks a lot for making these.
@@lmvr127 he doesn’t have western chauvinism, he just isn’t politically correct. The PC narrative of the the world these days is to downplay the success of the west to make all cultures feel equal, but anyone who seeks to learn true history knows that isn’t the case.
The bit about Japan in the 80s and its massive real estate boom and bust really takes on a new meaning with Evergrande and now Shimao (and countless other we have little visibility about)
Japan in the 80s was already a rich country thats why a collapse in it's growth was perminant. China still has a large portion of the country thats developing which means room to grow. This is why despite whats going on, china was reported at growing 4.5% last quarter while the entire world is slipping into recession... again.
@@hughmungus2760 With a shrinking and aging (working) population, already unaffordable housing costs, sub par median income (compared to first world countries) and sky rocketing labor costs, pray tell me, where is the room to grow? They already overbuilt for 20 years and while impressive, most of the high speed rail network is losing massive amounts of money due to corruption and costs. They pumped the made in china 2025 initiative and it stalled, they spent billions in the belt and road initiative and got..Not very much in return. I could go on but I just don't see a massive driver or room for growth in the next 20 years. Their chip manufacturing still lags behind Taiwan and Japan and they failed to bootstrap their own designs and production lines.
@@azmodanpc When it comes to 21st century technology and china, no one talks about it. Because they know China has a real good shot at being the leader in artificial intelligence, quantum tech etc. The made in China 2025 plan definitely did not stall, even if you prefer to think that way.
@@J_X999 If that's your opinion regarding made in china 2025, something that the CCP doesn't even want to mention anymore (like the whole common prosperity propaganda), I'm fine. The part about technology I'm not so sanguine about. Like their military prowess, I can only see their propaganda and inflated numbers. Is China leading in quantum tech research? If the chip industry is an indicator, no, they are a couple of years behind and that's a fact. Their covid vaccine is less potent than the Western Imperialist made mRna one. And that is one of the reasons Xi is pushing these lockdowns. It sure made SinoFarm and other Chinese companies big bucks but that's another area where they are lagging behind other countries. I've seen plenty of drones and robots with loudspeakers shouting slogans and threats, though. That's some leading dystopian use of tech if I ever saw one.
@@azmodanpc China has the world's first quantum communication satellite system. Its been in use for a while now. If we look at china's 14th 5 year plan, we can clearly see artificial intelligence and technology like that as their top priority. They are dumping lots of money into tech and once the CCP inevitably collapses, that technology isn't just going to evaporate into thin air. Think about it, a democratic china ruled by let's say Taiwan, doesn't restrict people's creativity and doesn't use tech for dystopian crap etc. That's a world leader in 21st century technology. You've understood me wrong. I think Xi and the CCP will be gone very soon. But China itself and all their advancements will be world leading if it falls into the right hands.
This is a good and informative video, enjoyed it a lot. My one constructive criticism would be to pay more attention to audio mixing and volume levels, sometimes it's jumps around
@@LuisFlores-ls4yy Debates are a joke. The participants are incentivized to attack each other, and the viewers are incentized to treat it like a rap battle. The real debate should be in the heart of the earnest searcher for truth. Look up different viewpoints and weigh them in your mind.
A thing Whatifalthist avoids mentioning is the strength in Chinese ethno-cultural homogeneity. 94% of the population being Han Chinese pretty much guarantees that China with its current boundaries has a strong chance of existing long into the future. Other more ethno-culturally split nations will struggle when crisis hits and people priories the in-group more while tensions and power struggles increase.
Lol Russian and French revolutions happened in even more racially homogenous nations at their time, and this was also before the age of the internet and massive dependency on energy which 85% is imported from outside its borders in China. They also didn’t have any super powerful outside nations poised to aggressively take advantage of this collapse.
@@jaydenshepard7928 yeah but the countries of Russia and France didn't split up. Unfortunately for the world Its more likely that the US wil split up in 50 years than China
overpopulation has always been a Chinese problem since ancient times hopefully if the population actually falls by 50% this time - the dynamic changes for once LOL
@@therearenoshortcuts9868 despite what is claimed, a shrinking chinese population will be a stabilising factor by reducing wage competition and freeing up more resources per capita. The average chinese could care less about how many people live in the country while they do care about their personal ability to afford things.
Respectfully, I don't agree. Possible tensions within the Politburo may just lead to a minor coup, and simply a return to China before Xi. The housing crisis will lead to a massive recession, but not enough to starve. I am currently most fearful for current starvation issues to somehow spiral, or the water crisis to worsen. People only revolted in Czarist Russia and France because of starvation. I don't think the current events is terrible enough to be a long term issue. (So water crisis is likely the one that threatens PRC)
It's a hot mess with both sides having left bitter about each other and nothing resolved or at least achieving some understanding. I would like a rematch though.
It’s interesting to hear someone compare communist China to pre-revolution France. (I’m unimportant, but I’ve always thought that both the PRC and USSR seemed like French or Russian feudalism masquerading as communism, and post Soviet Russia seems like the same variety of feudalism, only masquerading as capitalism, now.) I don’t know if you agree, and China, especially, seems a very convoluted stew, with ingredients from any number of systems in the mix, but it’s nice to hear someone else make the connection, even if it’s only tangentially or parenthetically.
It's what most of us in the european world are hoping for. "There is nothing stopping chinese people from equality to european quality of life other than the goverment that fears the transformation from civilization state to a federation of states in the civilization. (Russia has the same problem. we are all worried india will fall backward as has china under xi, and russia under putin).
In this case I believe that the PLA would side with the revolutionaries. Xi recently did a very Stalinesque purge of the officer corps, eliminating entire chains of command in the ostensible name of rooting out corruption. In reality it was getting rid of officers who were or might become more faithful to their superiors than to Xi himself. In the short term this works, but in the long run it leads to officers looking for any reason to revolt...so long as they think they can get away with it. The French army did not decide overnight to support the Revolution. It was a smoldering resentment against the king and nobility that caught fire once the Revolutionary Committee stood up. The officer corps of the PLA probably has that same resentment.
@@fredlougee2807 My understanding of these issues is superficial at best since I can't read a single Chinese character. Even if I could read and therefore interact with more internal sources I would also need expertise in cultural nuance. The true underlying sentiment is unknown to me. The information we get is meant to make us feel upset with one group and sympathetic to another using the power of synonyms. You can't get news without sensationalism and agenda to some degree. Someone once told me if you want to know history, read between the lines of what the victors wrote. It's like that with the news. What are they trying to get me to think and why? How biased are their synonyms and "semantics" (which the subconscious takes literally). And this is just western media I'm talking about. The polarization builds and both sides fight dirtier now. Expect it to get worse in the future. As far as I'm concerned the world is a chess board, countries are just pieces, the Bilderberg Group and Trilateral Commission are the current players. Look at the size of Vanguard and Blackrock. Not only do they own a piece of everything, they also own a substantial piece of each other making for some interesting legal opacity and playful finger pointing. I think the people of China are every bit as docile as we are. Same stockholm syndrome, same beaten-dog syndrome. Gov't goes to scratch it's nose and we wince like we're about to be backhanded. I doubt the army and I doubt the people even more. Not their spirit, their organization.
I speak and read Chinese fluently. This video is insightful, it speaks in broad generalities which in general are accurate but always have exceptions, so take it with a grain of salt but it's basically right! WELL DONE!
6:39 - I can't speak from a Chinese or Japanese perspective, but something I find very interesting here - in the example of America, the populace openly criticise their systems for not being better, so refinement and optimisation, however when this system is attacked, it generally solidifies to retaliate - this as opposed to praising the system and then attacking it from the inside when attacked - so interesting
I fear for all the immigrants of color living in Australia when the country finally goes through an economic recession. Australia has been experiencing uninterrupted economic growth for the past few decades and has opened its doors to immigrants yet despite all of that there is still such an underlying level of racism in the society. There’s still pretty much a them vs us mentality. People are still pretty much separated. I live there for a few years and it’s very apparent how negatively a lot of people view immigrants despite the high level of income and standard of living that everyone enjoys. I can only imagine how bad things are going to get when an economic recession happens and peoples wages and standards of living starts droppings. They’ll be blaming every person of color that they see. That’s just my observation though, I would rather live in Australia over China any day.
@@enticingmay435 I agree with you 100% I may want to add that I see racism against Europeans too. There are many social groups primarily of Asians/other groups who are against Europeans. I've heard it myself since i hang out with a lot of Asians when they talk about how 'white people' are lame, uncultured and the source of the worlds problems and then tell me that im different because im 'cultured' and from europe itself. On the other hand I hear racism against non-europeans just as much, especially with the older population and areas where there little to no diversity in demographics and its really gross to see. I see a society that could potentially fracture in the future, especially if standard of living starts to stagnate.
@@kongregatefan67 aye, everyone potentially hates everyone at this point if there is a collapse i expect all the races to attack each other, including asians vs blacks, mexicans vs Muslims etc etc..
One thing to highlight on why there is anger on Shanghai is the lockdown is poorly executed with no planning, the Shanghai government is reluctant to shut down Shanghai because of economic reasons and attempts some half assed measures, which neither satisfy the population nor effectively shutdown covid, when the leak of a quarantine zone occur, its spreads and the Shanghai government shutdown the city immediately, which gave no time for people to prepare (i guess they have a point where its supposed to prevent people from leaving the city before lockdown), the lockdown is supposed to be a week or two, at least thats what the Shanghai government promised, but its clear that they cannot control it within the time. So Shanghai people are fed up as the Shanghai government broken the promise. As for people out of Shanghai, they dislike Shanghai for having special privileges, reluctant and delay to lockdown is not afforded to them, so they are being sarcastic with Shanghai's situation now. But, I dont think this will be Fall of China or anything close. The thing is, the history with China is that local governments far from capital/ central government ignore plight of people or mishandled for decades, the news did not reach the central government, which builds up a lot of resentment. In the modern age, such problems are almost impossible to hide from central government, once people launch complaints or complain on soc med about the central government, they are almost forced to act immediately, the CCP's survival depends on appeasing the people enough for them to lead a normal life. Even now, the Shanghai government is probably being mass fired from their positions with people replacing them being reminded on what will happen if they fucked up, while food supplies nation wide are redirected and given priority to quarantine areas. I dont see CCP failing this century,. CCP have to fuck up majorly for China to rebel, not just resentment of Shanghai, like literally need China to be Somalia or Sudan level of poverty and lawlessness. Someday they might fall, China will be broken up but its a matter of time before they would be reunited under a new faction, establishing a new dynasty.
Time is the best judge. Almost a year has passed since this the date of this clip, and China is thriving - its GDP for 2023 is estimated to grow 5.2%. On the other hand, these countries are experiencing some spectacular fall - UK: -0.3%, Germany: -0.1%, US: 1.6%. So, are we changing the title to 'the Fall of the West'?
I would love to hear commentary on mass shootings. This is the channel where I first heard the aphorism, "if you fall to give young men a sense of belonging in the village, they will burn the village down".
Mass shootings is basically western equivalent of suicide bombings.Dissafected young men choosing violence due to lack of advancement,it will only increase in the future like how terrorism rapidly increased in the Middle East as the economy starts slowing down
As a Chinese Canadian I gotta say you nailed a outta stuff in this video. I have a feeling the world is going to change DRASTICALLY in the coming decades, and none of us are gonna be ready….
I found the map you were referencing. Interestingly, when I set ages to 13-30, a lot of the east Asian countries, including China, switched from shame to guilt. That gives me reason to be optimistic for their future.
Maybe that switch demonstrates the cultural spread of western ideals. Slowly shifting even old societies set in their ways. American media is a global export.
How bad was the debate? As soon as I heard vaush say he wanted a debate I thought it would be a terrible idea. Then I heard it was happening and I don't know if it is worth my time.
@@happytrees6484 It's Vaush, so no progress was actually made. But it was nice to see WIAH stand up to him and run circles around him. They were able to agree when it comes to healthcare and trains though. I thought it was fun, at the very least.
@@Supreme_Goldfish I kind of liked it too, minus the pseudo-intellectualism from WIAH, asking for a list of books instead of addressing the issue directly. That strategy can be used to avoid any direct debate, so I find it cheap. Not saying that Vaush was good, just saying I expected good from WIAH.
Whatifalthist: Uploads a video. 2 months later:The Chinese financial crises began.Some regional banks fail. Chinese citizens stop their mortgage payments.
If you had released this even as little as 2 weeks ago I would have suggested you were over reacting. Today, I'm trying to re-work almost the entirety of all of my geopol analysis due to the trends that these lockdowns have set in motion and how they compound the global instability that the current war and coming famines will bring.
He's way off the mark about China falling. America is the one falling not China, China is rising, unfortunately. I guess gas prices are low and groceries are cheap. He seems so out of touch it isnt funny.
I think what's interesting is that Japan just instantly becomes the wealthiest nation in Asia in this scenario... under its own increasingly militant and paranoid government that fears its own population halving. Could lead to a Second Sengoku Jidai in Japan as the world economy collapses with China or they invade the Chinese.
I could see Japan not welcoming in Chinese refugees and that causing enough tensions to provoke a war. I don't think Japan is going to fracture, though.
A scenario where Japan invades the Chinese would immediately give the Chinese a common enemy like in world war 2. But this time, china would probably have the strength to push Japan out.
Japan has even worse demographic problems than China and even less martial spirit than Modern Germany. I really don't get why everyone thinks they are gonna be this future superpower.
That was a fantastic video. I'm a well, and broadly educated westerner who lived in China for three years. This was just excellent. Thank you for your amazing content. Bless you.
Funny you should mention the French Revolution, I saw a friend of mine in Shanghai posting a "do you hear the people sing" video on social media a couple of days ago.
If the CCP and central government collapses, the what happens to it's nuclear weapons? What is stopping one PLA general duking it out with a rival general? It will spiral out of control if one PLA general has tactical nukes and I don't see any hesitation of use in the umpteenth Chinese Civil War.
Probably would doubt that if the Chibese generals would view chinese people as assets to rule over. However, in an American civil war you'd probably get californians wanting to Purge Texans off the continent for being "homophobic Christian bigots" or something .
@@CantoniaCustoms That is an ignorant view of Chinese history, which is littered with civil conflicts. Even the current CCP government is a participant in the last civil war and won it. That civil conflict had warlords changing sides very quickly. Even the first Chinese dynasty is a product of civil conflict between multiple warlords. Maybe the PLA doesn't touches the nukes when the CCP collapses. That would be great.
@@AmirSatt well, we can honestly say that he's pretty ignorant about everything outside of North America. Which, in itself, isn't necessarily a bad thing. The problem is that he speaks as if he knew a lot and make wild and absurd predictions based on this ignorance. And most of his community just takes whatever he says as truth.
The next era of history will be without a global power. It will be interesting. I expect a pirate revival due to lack of internationally secure trade, which of ye landlubbers wants to join me crew? We'll be called "the lurchin' urchins"!
I saw this video about how so many problems can be solved by just building more houses. I didn't watch it but I find it interesting that a major point of what's wrong with china is their housing market.
I also watched that video, and I definitely recommend it to anyone who hasn’t. It does oversimplify things, but the decrease in homeownership and quality of housing has caused enormous problems.
Can you share this video?? I'm REALLY curious. I've always known the housing market is really fucked up but didn't know that it could solve so much just by having a bigger access to it
I lije your posts on China and generally i agree with some of your risk assesments. But with this one it is difficult. I was living in China between 1999 and 2013. From about 2003 people started talking about this "son of Mao" who was publicly speaching for a return to maoist times. People were nerveous about it, also my acquintances in governmental positions. There was this strong democratization movement building up in China due to the freedoms Hu Jintao allowed. People felt in their guts the ambitions of Xi would lead to repression and limitations of freedom after the first signs of a crisis. There was at the same time this nostalgia about the cultural revolution, that even affected young people who were not there. Xi exists because of the nostalgia. The question js, when a new maoist era starts, but then with more wealth, will it decay or stabilize?
it will decay. possessions are not secured or maintained if no one gives a shit about them. Hell, even in the capitalist experiment China tried, they built all those ghost cities out of crap, and the units are waiting to be finished, because no one lives there, and maybe no one will ever live there, except worms and pigeons. In nature nothing is ever truly stable, things grow, or they decline, the tide is coming in, or its in retreat. No system man has ever created can fully override natural forces. So, people are improving their properties because they are settled, they love their home,, and trust their neighbors and officials, or properties are falling into ruin and disrepair because people rather take their chances somewhere else, maybe even in the wilderness because the predators out there are animals, and not criminals, police, and soldiers, who can take away all the perceived value of living in a society. Cities are built on aspirations, and they fall into disrepair on corruption, fear, and anguish., regardless of the ascribed value of the property, or the ascribed value of the currency, because people are not property or currency, they are human, and they all have their breaking point. The strong break, and they refuse to care for anyone but themselves because they trust and love no one else, and the weak break, and they die in bed because no one is left to care for them. I'm not seriously religious, but the Bible verse James 5:1-4 is a sage warning not to break the spirit of humanity, or divinity, but to align with it. If greed turns against one's blood cold against what is good for others, even gold quickly becomes worthless.
On the plus side, the current dynasty seems a _lot_ like the oppressive Qin. Well, at least after the Qin came the Han, one of the more impressive governments of the preindustrial age. So perhaps the world may get lucky and the next Chinese dynasty will resemble the Han a lot more, with honorable, meritocratic systems and a duty to the people.
@@therearenoshortcuts9868 Consecutive harvest failures and state bankruptcy Qin suffered were close enough though. The Eight Flags Imperial Army was disbanded by all intend and purpose when Taiping Rebellion kicked off, with the aftermath gave birth to Warlord Era.
Han was also deeply expansionist and did some mad colonialism in Vietnam and central Asia, so idk if that's a great metric for moral goodness. Though all empires back then were like that so idk.
@@thanakonpraepanich4284 You're thinking of Qing, not Qin. Qin was the very first Chinese imperial dynasty, Qing was the very last one ruled by the Manchu Aisin Gioro clan.
As a Chinese, I just feel, hahaha, you are really interesting 😂😂😂 This, from the day I started getting into TH-cam, has been listened to on repeat every day
I would have liked to watch the debate, however unfortunately I literally can't bear to listen to vaush speak for more than 30 seconds. He's not only wrong, he's a liar (and he knows it). He's also extremely arrogant, and spits venom at a moments notice.
In all honesty you made the right choice. The first half of the debate was vaush saying that modern day social justice and abolitionist are the exact same and constantly interesting rud when he was making his argument. The second half mean while was vaush owning himself saying things like I kid you not to get to an anarchist society I would raise taxes and the tried and true real communism has never been tried argument. Unfortunately vaush is actually a savy debater at least to when it comes to getting under an opponents skin so the first half vaush won because rud kinda lost his cool while the second half was a firm win for rud. (Sorry for the length of this comment didn’t mean to rant.)
Debates are a stupid form of discourse, anyway. They're like the meat-head bro-down's of the mental world, without actually solving issues or educating anyone.
Not to mention tbat Vaush isn't a debater, or even a liberal. What he truly is,is an authoritarian amoralist ideologue and Rhetorician. Dishonest doesn't cover it. He is a downright malicious actor who is a total waste of time. Not to mention that ideologically and morally, you couldn't reasonably call him a socialist, he has the moral and ideological structure of a madman
@@tannerraque4348 "was vaush saying that modern day social justice and abolitionist are the exact same" hooo man, strawman-fallacy really? Or you can't comprehend what he says about this? Social justice is not the exact same as abolitionism, not even by Vaush standards.
It's great, unfortunately the creator is extremely young and needs to learn more about the world, so he makes some big mistakes. But he's genuine and insightful.
If you look only at China in recent history it’s pretty dark and grim, but if you look at the history of China you know that it’s breaks apart all the time and will eventually do the same as all empires do
It's interesting that people look at China today in the same manner that the Old World looked at the United States during the Depression. Within 20 years, the US got its act together and participated successfully in WWII that was already well underway in Europe. I think it's a bit preemptive to assume that China is going to fall into revolution. I think it's probably more likely that they'll have a harsh decade in the 2020s, but emerge just as powerful economically as they were in the 2010s. We'll see though. It may not be the CCP, but the nation as a whole will probably remain just as nationalistic and united.
At some point, the Communists will pass into history the same way past Chinese dynasties came and went over the last 4000 years or so, replaced by yet another dynasty with or without periods of disunity and civil strife. The Communists know this too. They judge their success by how many years they can hold power in China until a new dynasty inevitably comes to replace them. The Communists are hoping for a couple more centuries. This video is saying we'll be finding out the answer sooner rather than later.
The US government and American mindset is/was completely different from China though. Unless the government in China drastically changes I don't see these problems getting solved.
There are basically three types of Dynasties in China: the cruel, the effective, and the right. 1. The cruel regimes typically emerge after periods of long-term division and warfare within China, namely the Qin, the Sui, the Yuan, and the CCP (but this also includes near-unifiers, the the former Qin). Given the period in which they emerged, these regimes typically specialize in the application of violence. This makes sense, after all, as good governance and accountability to one's subjects matters little if you can't wage war effectively against those states that might otherwise conquer you. This typically breeds a competition wherein the state that most effectively dominates the battlefield eventually wins out. Having no experience of proper governance, however, such regimes typically come from a strategic doctrine which emphasizes control and elimination of rival power centers over empowerment of forces that might otherwise govern China in the 'correct' manner. Without some sort of force in the state itself which moderates the application of power, these states almost always devolve into quasi-despotic regimes in which the maintenance of state power is given paramouncy over the actual execution of the duties of the state. The mandate quickly leaves the regime when some natural disaster/calamity occurs primarily because it is viewed that the state was not doing enough to address the problem in the first place (regardless of if state power could've had any effect) and/or, especially in the case of military defeats (like in the case of the Sui), that such adverse circumstances are the result of such endless pursuit of power. In other words, the linking of the state's popularity to control creates a system where control is prioritized above all else. 2. The effective regimes (Shang, Han, Tang and Ming) are able to emerge in the aftermath of these cruelties because they can take advantage of some of the institutional relationships built up in the previous regime, not the least of which are centralized military organizations and a reinvigorated notion that the central state in China has some role to play in the well-being of the nation. This also ignores the fact that, most likely, the conditions under the cruel regime have been improved to some extent by that regime's elimination of military competition. The prospect of returning to the alternative of warlords is too frightful. This being said, having emerged as a counterpoint to the cruel and indifferent regime prior to it, the existence of the regime is closely linked to the ability of the regime to honor and respect the mandate and, I dunno, provide effective government services and aid. This combination of a state for which both military efficacy and good governance are defining aspects of their social contract creates an incredibly durable social contract, wherein both the carrot (delivery of government services) and the stick (threat of violence) are utilized to create a cohesive and unified society. Like most organizations that are successful, however, this becomes their downfall. The decentralization of power inherent to the reliance on government officials who are supposed to have an a priori commitment to good invariably invites corrupt officials, like Wang Mang, Wu Zetian, An Lushan, or Dong Zhou, who usurp the power of the state for themselves. The general reaction to this is a doubling-down on the 'good officials, good government' model, and the process repeats itself (primarily because control is antithetical to the implicit social contract of the regime and because the failure of the corrupt officials is often said to be their corruption rather than their lack of control) until the state no longer wields effective central military power. 3. The right regimes (Zhou, Jin, Song, and Qing) then pick up the pieces after these effective regimes fall. These are usually incredibly bloody times, think Three Kingdoms and end of Ming dynasty (including the Imjin Wars), and the contrast between the starkness of constant interstate conflict and the relative peace of the unified period of China under a regime which actually saw the people as ends unto themselves creates strong political incentives for regimes to emulate the deeds of previous regimes, especially with respect to their filially pious role as head of the Chinese nation. I call these regimes right because they are usually the best in the technical execution the Confucian values, albeit at the expense of performing the often brutal role that being the leader of an empire requires to maintain stability. I'll hand it to these regimes (esp. Zhou and Song): their correct execution of values and morals often means that these regimes are cultural and economic powerhouses despite their relative militaristic paucity. Nonetheless, without a sword to convince the population that the olive branch is the better choice, enterprising rival regimes/politicians often can and do challenge said regimes because they so utterly lack any military legitimacy. The result is the eventual fall of the regime, and although the same strong political incentives exist now as existed at the start of the regime, the relative ease with which competitors in the political arena can usurp said popularity with brute force invariably means that no regime can build up the popularity to rebuild a unified China before being destroyed by military competition. Without the ability to overcome opponents militarily, such regimes will never unify China, and the process repeats.
Interesting analysis, and one to keep in mind. By this theory, China's on the verge of throwing off the totalitarian CCP, though not necessarily removing all of the values that the CCP instilled in them. (Unless a new prophet - a new confucius or lao tzu - comes along). Just heading up to a next Han dynasty or something, that will actually last for some centuries.
Finally another confirmation regarding my prediction of the Collaspe of the Muscovite and Han Civilization States. Hope your days going well Whatifalthist, cheers! 😃
@@vyktorehon5995 Agreed it is a unexageratable tragedy as both future events are likely to cause more death and suffering than most if not all previous events in Human history thus far.
@@vyktorehon5995 why? English people and their decadents in the US are the leading civilization power currently and they stemmed from a literal fracturing of saxony to pressures from Teutons, suebi tribes and franks. The angles were refugees fleeing Flemish and Viking deprivations. Just because an ethno-state fractures, doesn’t mean it’s sad or even bad for said ethnicities.
One thing's for sure, the history of China is fascinating to learn about.
Your a good platform, nice to see you here
Thanks for supporting this guy
By reading kingdom I learned how awesome their history was.
Especially on Magellan TV!
You mean West Taiwan? 🤣😂
Who knew that having a very top heavy authoritarian aristocratic ruling class caring only for themselves would have disastrous consequences for the people below them
Congrats, you describe every country in this world.
They never learn.
@@KuroiWinter95 Not Norway.
It's been like that for them since ancient times.
@@FormerPessitheRobberfan you sure about that!
My wife is Chinese and keeps me updated on their social zeitgeist. She says the government seems more popular than ever these days. Also, it's been drilled into Chinese people that the Century of Humiliation was caused by disunity and that China needs a strong central government to survive.
certified "my wife is chinese" moment
Because… the era of humiliation was because of that?
@@nope7389 Yeah, that was a huge reason. I'm just saying that the Chinese people are very aware of that fact, and it will take a lot to make them disunify again. "Chinese people will never fight for rights, but always for food".
@R H What does your wife hear about the social zeitgeist now that people died in a locked up apartment tower in Urumchi, millions saw people without masks at the World Cup and Jiang Zemin has died?
@@alanparsonsfan In the past few days, China has seemed to walk back COVID restrictions in response to the protests, and is removing daily PCR test requirements in some cities. She says the lockdowns are still popular with govt employees who get paid no matter what happens, but unpopular with average people who can't work at their jobs and don't get sufficient subsidies. She's been seeing subtly subversive memes being shared about government overreach and freedom. There is also a rumor of a scandal in Beijing's PCR test company paying the mayor $40 million and causing false positive tests to trigger lockdowns (requiring expensive mitigation services) or causing false negative tests (to allow the spread of COVID, again requiring services.) I haven't seen anything about that in Western media yet, but a couple of Chinese people told me about it like it's a fact. Regarding the world cup mask thing, she said everyone already knew the rest of the world was back to normal.
Let's not forget that coastal China is packed with relatively wealthy people who would be able to take a plane or boat and flee China if it suffered civil war. It would make the 2015 migrant crisis look like a couple of lads visiting for some sightseeing.
Except they would benefit the nations they go too. They are some very enterprisesing people.
@@jacobbrassard2776 Yes and no. Here in Australia Asians are our biggest minority. You're right that they do very well educationally and economically, but they are highly ethnocentric and generally side with the Chinese government on everything, regardless of how long they have been here.
@@jacobbrassard2776 Russian oligarchs Benefits the west too, yet they are not welcomed, there are a lot of variables that go into something like this.
True. The most wealthy Chinese & CCP leaders have been covertly acquiring properties in the West for years, and storing capital overseas in anticipation of expatriating given the opportunity.
The unspoken attraction of acquiring wealth, for many, is to leave China- and I think they see the writing on the wall. It’s very dangerous to be a Chinese billionaire under this regime, especially if your plans to bail are uncovered.
@@victorcode2075 They're also incredibly nepotistic, once one gets into the hiring management it becomes basically impossible for any other ethnicity to join the company.
I think another question that could be asked is how would the collapse of China affect the rest of the world and America in particular. On the one hand, the collapse of China could be similar to the collapse of the Soviet Union, wherein the USA would turn back to its internal problems and likely liberalize further. Still, on the other hand, the US and the rest of the world is far more reliant on China than they ever were on the Soviet Union. It'll be interesting to see how they adapt to a world where China is at best fractured and ineffective. Maybe you could do a video on this in the future?
Well let’s hope China exists in a weakened state or the globalists will enslave everyone as the Chinese would
Greater Hong Kong being British or something, maybe turn Nanking into the Catholic capital of the world under the banner of the Taiping heavenly kingdom?
That’s a great idea, USS Iowa. I’m very interested in that.
Personally I don’t see why we have to rely on a country that is out to screw over our culture. Go somewhere like India or Thailand, where the people in power actually don’t want to inject cultural rot into our society.
because china is so important for the us economically unlike the soviet union i feel like that would take up americas full attention
Seeing some people defend China's lockdowns by saying we're more interested in the goods and services they produce over the lives of actual Chinese people always peeved me for reasons I couldn't put to words. Thanks for putting it to print!
Most people wish to see China's collapse. When millions starved in China in the great leap forward, there was zero aid. People have been hoping for China's collapse for 30 years now. Even this video is basically wishing that China collapses. That's just the reality for the Chinese. There is no savior. People want them to fail. Their destiny is in their own hands if they work hard at it. Always was, always is, always will be.
@@henli-rw5dw given the fanatical reality of Maoist Great Stumble Backward…. How exactly could other people have helped and would the Great Steersman even accepted any aid?
@@brianmiller5444 Why you think west sanctioned China back then? To help them? No, obviously hoping the communists would starve as they did. It not a secret that everybody wishes ill of the Chinese. They are on their own. People have been wishing doom on them for 30 years.
@@brianmiller5444 Ironically it's the doom wishing that keep them together. You know, external threat, else the Chinese are greedy and selfish.
@@henli-rw5dw Elon musk loves Chinese, there are hundreds of people who love Chinese, you’re wrong.
as someone who lives in China right now, I would say the situation outside of the Shanghai is not as bad as you pictured. But the situation inside Shanghai is far worse than even you have pictured. If the central authorities keep up with their ludicrous decision-making, then disaster certainly looms in the horizon. I don't think the populace is capable of doing anything radical though, since most of them are sheepish, drenched in self-loathing most of the time and do not have the will to fight.
Cap
Yep. I live in shanghai and have lived in China 10 years. I concur
centuries of social engineering is a son of a gun.
Naomi Wu has said the same thing.
And the thing about the military helping the revolution is that there needs to be an already existing revolution for the militarily to co-opt
There is another possibility. Yes, the regime will change but China won't collapse. Historically, it happened two times that China was re-unified by a tyrant who had a short lived dynasty. That dynasty was replaced to create the more balanced long-term dynasties we know about (like suei to tang period). Dynastic collapse was usually because of weakness and not tyranny
qin collapse was because of tiranny
Because of Xi’s cult of personality, I think a weak leader after Xi is a distinct possibility and even likely
It's hard to say since regime change in China takes decades, not years. Just the transition from Imperial to Communism last time took 50 years.
Expect your kids to be the one to watch the outcome on TV, you may not live long enough to see the endgame.
Of course China won’t go away forever but they usually have an interregnum period of decades or centuries between dynasties. With the way China and the rest of the world are these days this would mean an enormous amount of suffering, famine, and possibly regional war.
I thought Whatifalthist was at least a semi mature person but after seeing the 3 hours of his petty arguing against Vaush, I'm dissapointed. He talks like a manchild and he clearly shows signs of not being able to have any kind of proper discussion with a normal human being. I'm genuinely surprised as to how much of a different person he seems in this videos compared to live social interactions. Jesus christ.
playing circus theme song is mandatory for watching this guy videos
it's impressive how you never fail to create video where the audio recording is all over the place
I used to think he had like 6 different narrators when I first watched him
It's apart of his brand at this point lmao
He's collaborating with other timelines, which is how he gets the inside scoop on alternate histories, but not every world knows their audio.
It helps me keep attention, it's one of the main things I like about the channel
Seriously! Been saying this for a while now. It's crazy how much better these videos would get if he just spent a little time cleaning up his scripts (removing offensive / dated language) and either buying a higher quality microphone or getting someone else to do the narration. He's really, really holding himself back here.
A warlord period for a country with nukes? That's scary
sounds like pakistan to me.
@@nishantsingh7235 Given the current political situation there right now
Try.....warlord periods in multiple countries with nukes
While there maybe turmoil within the CCP I just can't see anyone actually splintering off and forming their own seperate government. Chinese nationalism and aversion to seperatism is just too strong for that to happen.
Whats more likely to happen is a palace coup where another clique takes power in the CCP and heads in a different direction while most of the country is left in the dark about whats happening.
Nukes are manageable (for the rest of the world). Biological weapons, not so much. Who knows what they have in their labs...
I was born, grew up and received most of my education in China. I'm now living overseas, working with people from diverse backgrounds. I love the comparison of China with France. The similarities between the 2 cultures were what drove to study French on my own. Reflecting on my own education, it's a bitter sweet experience. Sweet in that it was very easy to find a sense of belonging as it's been emphasised throughout my school years that students need to score high collectively to bring honour to the class. Bitter in that there was very little room for individual development as a person. I along with many others was often seen as an ex machine oir teachers could use to get a pay rise. In recent years I can see with my own eyes how much China has gone backwards. I'm under the impression that the main reason for this is due to the total destruction of its cultural foundation. The cultural revolution has such profound ramifications in reshaping China as a whole and unfortunately the ruling party decided to put a stop to reflecting on the damage done by simply putting ir as a mistake, now it's been corrected as a daring but difficult attempt to achieve communism. We as a nation never truly introspect another what communism has brought to us. The party on the other hand has been meticulous in restructuring its people in every aspect. They like big fancy words such as China's great revival, for which individual difficulties are dismissed. All must work under the party's forever correct guidelines to achieve this ultimate goal. Officials don't answer to the people they manage, but to their superiors. Hence you see a lot of infrastructure projects because it's so much less effort to build a road to work your way up the ladder than actually bend down to listen to what your people are struggling with. Another example is the party's relentless persecution against any forms of spontaneous cooperation. Spontaneously forming groups or organisations to better support the community means little control the party has over their participants. And the party is extremely good at taking advantage of humanity's greed and jealousy. You're encouraged to report your neighbours, friends even family members on anything deemed unpatriotic or critical of the government. This is exacerbated with actual material rewards as further incentives. Today China's lower middle class and low class are full of these self righteous and selfish people that delight ok other people's misfortune. Empathy, sometimes even sympathy are not really taught. Everyone should be for themselves and they have an almighty government that can take care of them. This is why I agree with thr video and why I've been telling my friends around me that this communist China, just like Russia is doing nothing but bluffing. I feel sorry for the country that has such a long and rich history. But as an individual I'm glad that I'm no longer part of that society.
atomic society in which every single individual is like an atom, unable to be organized by same principal or ideology, CCP will strike on any of such attempt and has taken over every aspect in society with help of high-tech surveillance ,if dystopia gonna come true one day ,it's gonna come true in CCP's China first
wish China can overcome the ccp and again rekindle its culture love from India❤️
@@darkknight2414 Thanks friend, but as another overseas Chinese I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon. Love to India!
In the beginning the CCP was an idiotic system that led to mass starvation. But the CCP today has evolved into a threat to Western governance because of it's efficiency. The Shanghai incident is the first weakness that I've seen so far, in that it made a decision not based on good science, but politics. No western governance today can respond to all the global issue facing humanity like the CCP can.
I love china so much and it pains me a lot to see it like this.
Communism is supposed to make you help the people around you to build a better society. The CCP has become corrupted just like the western conservative parties, advocating for a fake morality that they themselves have created and act as it was always like that.
What’s to be considered when we talk about China collapsing is that there is a large industry funded by western companies as we have them make our stuff and we buy it. If that major source of labor is gone, it could have massive ripple effects. Western economies could easily collapse and companies would need to shift who they have build their stuff. India and Mexico could easily fill this role with dozens of other countries. The collapse would have winder effects on the world then any other time China has gone into its warlord period
The only thing the west gets from China is cheaper 1$ toys. Can be easily outsourced to somewhere else like Vietnam
I mean, colonialism II: Electric boogaloo is always on the table
China has made laws so chinese labor worker who works for west companies would win more money than other workers from countries such as india and mexico usually wins and this make many companies to leave but some time later they came back because what makes chinese workers different from the other examples is that they are more educated and capable for many different works even of they are more expensive many companies still operates in china
I would assume that the fall of China wouldn't be instant. Like we see right now, it would be a gradual deterioration of the state, so companies would have plenty of time to realize its time to get out and move to another (hopefully not authoritarian) country.
Except western manufacturing is already transitioning to places like Southeast Asia
I feel that the fact that all these theories and predictions is based on current trajectories and inferences is vastly understated. China may collapse, but that cannot predict any actions that change the situation. So remember, don’t take this at face value. Things will keep changing
What do you think the CCP can do to solve the issues he has talked about in the video.
@@greenearth975 well they are creating their own version of mRNA virus shot. I think also China population is too old to have a revolution.
@@greenearth975 create babies out of thin air
@@greenearth975 the CCP can pull a Stalin and destroys the PLA leadership to prevent a warlordization.That wont solve the problems facing China,but it will ensure that the regime stays intact until the worst has passed or a solution is found
@@greenearth975 Ramp up the infrastructure and make it actually work. Encourage social cohesion where people support one another. Fix the dating scene by forcing certain companies to keep their employee's off work more often and pouring wealth down to the populace; but also support the populace not simply through money but through economic favors and benefits outside of raw cash that also funnel resources to severely needed areas.
And, IDK...make a plan to effectively govern alongside and not over 1/7th of the entire population of earth.
Excuse me, if China still there in 15 years, will u give me a million dollars?
I absolutely love the upload frequency. You’re killing it man
I think you should rely less on Turchin in your analyses. First, he's not a historian, he's a statistician, and secondly, his historical analyses overlook the fact that past demographics data aren't just that reliable - like iirc credible population estimates for the population of Rome in the 1st century vary by a factor of *four*. Because of this, it's very easy to pick and chose historically plausible numbers that conform his initial thesis. Actual modern historians tend to be skeptical of cyclical theories of history, for good reasons.
Yes!
Oswald Spengler
Yeah, right, except history is cyclical because humans are limited and therefore predictable. Also, China is crumbling, it's demographic situation is such that it will grow old before it becomes rich enough to handle such an old society.
@@jonathancummings6400 Humans are limited and predictable, but technology will change things in ways they can't imagine that will drastically affect the future. Just compare Back to the Future II with actual 2015. The changes in the modern world are too fast and too novel to predict using historicism* alone.
*looking to the past to predict the future
Turchin is fine. His predictive power (turbulent 2020's already from 2010) is superb. But as I already said to my comment, he must rely in all details of Turchin's view, not just those that lead to a convenient conclusion.
I am living and working in Shenzhen, China. Good points, I can't disagree. Wow! Next few years are gonna be interesting.
I’d love to see an entire video on the future of America and the different scenarios that could play out. I know there’s the “Is America in Decline” video, but that one left me yearning for more from you.
China and Russia : population collapse USA : liberals coping and seething Europe : *watching in horror as Russia bleds to death on the rock that is ukraine*
I'd love to see that too!
Agreed
Right you are sir
@@Galante177 !
The energy component is missing from this analysis. All previous Chinese collapses happened in what was basically a subsistence agricultural economy. While a broad scale revolution/social collapse is definitely on the cards, the warlords/Napoleon scenarios aren't viable in a country that imports 85% of its oil and nitrogen fertilizer. The pressure for the central government to hold is much stronger in a scenario where failure means de-industrialization and a 70% mortality famine.
Industrialisation/de-industrialisation is of course new, but 70%+ fatality isn't historically unheard of during end-of-dynasty periods.
@@ArthurWKLo I think in the past we may have seen something like 20%, creeping up to 30%, but 70% is on an entirely different qualitative level
Yes, I just don't see a "balkanization" of China in the cards. They have many ethnicities, but a very very long history of national identity too. They would benefit a lot more to transition to a more federalized structure maybe, instead of actually splitting up into different, competing nations. But that transition will still probably be a violent one, since they don't seem to have a path to having a national dialogue where issues could be negotiated peacefully. Perhaps their best case scenario is that the power brokers making back room deals are able to arrange a coup with a "soft landing", likely with assistance from the West who have a vested interest in keeping China from completely disintegrating.
@@keepinmahprivacy9754 50 years from now, The People's Republic of China dissolves into the "United States of China," a weak central government barely holding together a union of Chinese Provinces with more power. Basically like the European Union is today, or how the US was prior to the Civil War.
@@keepinmahprivacy9754 there's also the factor of neighboring states that either want bits of 'China' , have legitimate claims on the land (Taiwan & Mongolia), entities that want independence (Hongkong & the Uyghurs come to mind) or governments in exile that wish to free their land (eg; Tibet)
This channel provides the most in depth and comprehensive analysis I have seen and communicates very effectively to those not completely immersed in the myriad factors in play.
How he literally read like three articles in a very anti-China U.S. media and he thinks he’s some genius
The average Chinese citizen has near debt levels of a US citizen despite 1/5th the income. China has 20% of its properties vacant - enough to house all of the UK. Chinese property developers are all going bankrupt. Many Chinese citizens also own two homes, one of which is not rented out to anyone - simply for its appreciation. These are blaring, LED red lights saying PROBLEM. This is on top of the demographic crisis which is the worst in history - caused directly by the CCP
So what? China is a fairly low income country with room to grow while the US is already high income economy where all the low hanging fruit for growth has been picked.
In theory china can still grow its way out of the problem, albeit with a few changes in spending habits.
In that case, all Britains can move to China and get free housing!
@@iminyourwalls8309 Chinese culture is fundamentally different to the west, when people reach 'retirement' they rarely if ever retire. its not like in the west where the government promissed generations of people unrealistic pensions.
In china people have personal savings for their old age but still work till the are physically incapable of working because its considered culturally unacceptable to be unemployed.
You see this even today with the elderly still holding down jobs and getting very little handouts from the government with basically no complaints.
@@iminyourwalls8309 The old people are being replaced with robots anyway, the real wealth of china will be created by automation and more efficient, localized supply chains.
Hell, if china can pull the remaining 40% of it's population off the fields and into some kind of desk job, thats a huge deal. Because you can work in an office well into your old age.
I'm a US mortgage broker. The Chinese real estate bubble has begun to pop - it is showing in the defaulting of all property developers and 50% declines in sales, every month, over the past six months. The Chinese population is going to nearly halve in the next forty years. 20% of the total Chinese housing is completely empty. On top of that,the extremely high personal debt levels of average citizens. All of that is what is called a bubble. It is no different from the US Great Depression or the Japanese housing bubble - exactly a forty year period of industrialization, building a bubble in wealth assets and then subsequent collapse. These issues couldn't be worse. Seriously. China has enough extra housing to house entire nations.
Man, dominating a debate and now dominating our feed. What else does he do?
Lmao don't lie to yourself
Dominate me
vaush couldn't even debate him properly he completely dominated him
@@NPCArena117 like many vaush fans do.
He quite literally ran away. Vaush didn't even have time to hit him with the racism card
As soon I heard about the demonstrations occurring in China among first things that rushed through my head was video. The question will occur in the coming weeks months and possibly years.
Whatifalthist: "China will become a powerful empire that takes all of Siberia
China: *Does the shit that it's doing today*
Whatifalthist:
He did say that in that video that China would have gone through a warlord period
Historically that's kind of the pattern though. When they are good they are really good and when they suck they really suck.
Thats the thing with predicting the future. Its damn near impossible as everything changes
Cause he is making predictions with western propaganda not facts. Also since he thinks in binary, so China would be in only one of two state, either a world dominating power or civil war. His prediction is such a foolish guess, it’s kinda ridiculous.
@@alphagamer9505 I know Im just memeing
Your channel started out with alternate histories, then used that foundation to predict alternate futures.
There are many other people who attempt to make similar predictions, like Peter Zeihan. I'd be interested to hear you branch into making videos responding to their predictions with your own analysis. Or you could go the political debate route, like you did with Vaush. (Great idea, in the future avoid condescension at all costs)
Id say avoid debating pedophiles in general, Vaush is a piece of work.
Vaush is owed nothing but contempt.
TH-cam deletes what I really think he deserves.
"vaush" get out of here lol
Wait, Whatifalthist debated Vaush?
That's something I need to see
That guy has admitted himself that he doesn't care about principle, he only cares about winning. He doesn't even deserve a conversation at that point, just a beating.
I love your videos and commentary, they are insightful, well researched, and nuanced.
However, for the love of God please invest in a boom microphone and sound card or keep it close to your mouth. The sound quality varies a great deal and sometimes sounds like your are recording from across the room.
I think the only thing that is really holding the CCP's rule together is technologies in weapons and surveillance, that can suppress an uprising easily. The French peasants didn't have to go up against tanks and machine guns.
this is a problem for all revolutions going forward
it might just mean the rebels always need some kind of insider help going forward (e.g. help from disaffected parts of the military)
@@therearenoshortcuts9868 or foregin backing.
The coming decades may very well be the last time in world history when revolutions by the people stand a chance. Here's to hoping that the awful regimes around the planet fall by then, before the world slowly anneals into its more permanent set of states. Some of the developing states around the world look like they have a bit more time, but the window is closing very fast for many places around the world.
I agree that the only thing keeping China together is the CCPs totalitarian system i could imagine that it isn't easy governing over 1 billion people. If a hypothetical rebellion did break out there is only so many people in government and the PLA if one domino falls they all will.
Meh, if ALL THE PEOPLE in the country would go out on the streets, there's nothing they could do. Its just when most are afraid and a tiny group wants to protest
The similarities between french and Russian revolutions are spot on. Funny how you just uploaded a WW3 prediction too. Intuitive predictions.
It doesn't take a genius to see a world war is coming.
Of course, considering the fact they were led by the same (((people))).
13 Mei
22:55 Nonton TH-cam 22:57 Whatifalthist The Fall Of China 23:40 Turun ke bawah Kekamar Mandi Naik keatas 23:49 ludah keluar
Interesting how he chose a slightly different part of the intro theme this time
I miss the old one but I welcome this new one! It’s cleaner and reflects him getting more professional with his production value (with his content already being top tier haha).
@@pacificstatesofamerica Yeah, I think you hit the nail on the head
I guess to quote Bill Wurtz.
"China's whole again... then it broke again..."
People here in the West vastly underestimate the amount of nation building that China and the CCP has done over the past half a century or so. Yes, China has historically been divided, with local warlords and clans having more authority over the central government but since the CCP took over, especially in the last few decades, they’ve really gone hard on uniting the country whether that be through infrastructure, education and the sino-nization of far away lands and ethnic minorities. A century ago if you go and ask people who they identify as, they would say that they are Fujianese, Sichuanese or Hainanese. If you go around the country and ask the same question today almost everyone who say that they are Chinese. Whether good or bad, the CCP has spent the past few decades wiping out hundreds if not thousands of different dialects and cultures all across the country and indoctrinating the Han Chinese culture and the standard Mandarin language. China, despite its problems today, is more united than it has ever been in its history. People from Heilongjiang on the Russian border to Yunnan in South East Asia and even places like Xinjiang and Tibet are more united than ever. I’m not saying that that is a good or a bad thing but just that the country is stronger and more united socially, economically and politically than it has ever been in its history. Children nowadays, regardless of their ethnic backgrounds, speaks fluent mandarin sometime even as a first language when their parents or grandparents might not even able to speak the language. The new generation of Chinese, those born after the cultural revolution of the 1960s and especially those born in the 90s and 2000s, are fiercely nationalistic with a strong sense of who they are as a social cultural entity in the world. Even those who are oppose to the CCP’s rule has this strong sense of nationhood attached to them. So even if this current CCP government falls, China as it stands today will continue as a nation, both culturally, socially and geographically. A country as big as China will not fall apart and disintegrate easily, despite all the wet dreams of theorists in the West, even if it’s facing a multitude of problems. For example, just look at the US. America faces as many if not more social and political problems as China and yet it still exist and will continue to exist as a country. The US is a perfect example of how a country can and will continue to survive despite a tsunami of unresolved social, economic and political issues. China will be the same. Again, it’s nice for western theorists to have wet dreams about China disintegrating completely and be under Western control just like it once was but those who predict that clearly doesn’t know the trends and developments in modern Chinese society and culture. I’m not a CCP apologist by the way, I think that their policies and actions are inhumane and unjustified. All I’m saying is that a lot of their policies, whether good or bad in our eyes, work in uniting the country and it’s people. I hope that the CCP falls and a new more democratic and humane government replace it but I just think that it’s outright ignorant and foolish to predict with certainly that an ENTIRE society, culture and identity will fall apart so easily.
may i ask how much yuan the ccp paid you to say this
Found the Chinese shill
@@JimB.Walken A typical under educated response with no real argument just personal attacks.
This dude is making his analysis based on purely western propaganda. For example, he assumes people are starving but in reality people are complaining they are not getting some type of food they want not starving.
And another ridiculous claim he made is that some how quarantine and economic downturn would break China. What a laughing stock. CCP has trashed Chinese economy in the 1960 with the Great Leap Forward and actually starved millions to death during the economic collapse and mismanagement. Yet CCP still exists. This guy has never read Chinese history. Every Chinese dynasty would endure multiple economic collapse and famine before finally collapsing.
@@lillyie Instead of ad hominem, can’t you just make an argument? I guess not.
I don’t think it would ever come to a complete collapse like that, at least not within the 15 years you have predicted. Most likely what would occur is just a change in party leadership with Hu Jintao or some other upstart faction taking the helm. The major problem is that unlike during the French and Russian revolutions which were all driven by ideological movements with decades of groundwork there is nothing of the sort in China. The absolute control by the party over all media, thought, and expression has led to a situation where there is no other alternative than the Party. When you add to this the fact that since Mao the CCP has been hardening the country against revolution since it’s founding, with Mao famously stating that “The party must control the gun.” Any sort of rebellion or popular revolution will have to contend with the Army being the sole source of power, with not even the police having any sort of real firepower. In more recent times in China physical barriers to discourage gathering along with armed checkpoints between provinces and cities have decreased any likelihood of a successful rebellion. Any rebellion in China would have to be facilitated by someone at the top and breaking party ranks, something that is unlikely when the alternative can be that person toppling Xi’s faction and becoming leaders themselves.
main problem is what will replace the CCP?
there is no practical alternative from a bureaucratic standpoint... even if a new regime takes over the entire government bureaucracy will likely still be former CCP members ... they are the only ones with the knowhow at this point...
@@therearenoshortcuts9868 it’s less about no one knowing how to run a government (that never stopped a revolution before) it’s just that there is no ideological force other than maybe Chinese nationalism that would fill the vacuum. The French Revolution had decades of salons discussing enlightenment philosophy, the Russian revolution had decades of organizing by socialist movements, hell even the Chinese revolution had Sun Yat-Sen creating the philosophical groundwork for the modern Chinese state. Without something to bind people together into revolutionary action you will just get general unrest followed by a reshuffling of the elites.
@@Icyclean6969
likely will be a hypernationalist regime that replaces CCP...
the only other alternative might be a corrupt populist regime that just gives "Free money" to everyone who has something to complain about... and that will just lead to bankruptcy LOL
@@Icyclean6969 If China starts a war with the US, the horrors of the blockade, war, famine, and the US funding anyone with a pulse will forment many revolutions. The CCP's downfall will happen because it must happen, or the people will cease to exist. Either way, no more CCP.
And the CCP in return will cause any devastation it can. WW3 will only be started by the CCP, and if it starts, it will be very different from the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. It won't be a straight fight. CCP will work horrors.
French revolution wouldnt happen if they had cameras everywhere and people would be paranoid to notvoice any negative opinion about the state or they might be sold by someone and sent to jail
LOVE THE NEW INTRO MUSIC
Dude I just love your videos, they are so good and insightful
@@cyberwar4111 ah yes if you are so much smarter than him, why not debate him?
I feel like we’re on the precipice of a crisis
I think we all feel that. It's gonna be a crazy decade
@@nathanmonk7128 just wait until 2040 when the water crises begin
A global one like a repeat of the bronze age collapse
@@skyguy1236 ah shit here we go again
@@rogerc6533 I don't think that bad
I’m curious, based on the models you showed, what countries in the world have the FEWEST of these factors which generally precipitate revolution and instability.
Useful information for those of us looking to ride out any large-scale world chaos.
Debates a communist sympathiser, wins and then uploads a video essay about the fall of china. What a Chad
wouldn't call it a win.
@@erei5659 when you wrestle with pigs you always get some mud on you
did we watch the same debate? Rudyard literally gave up after 10 minutes
@@boyishmallard9404 the gap in knowledge between the two was cringe af. Vaush isn’t well read at all.
Yeah if anything, WIAH became annoyed at Vaush because of his constant interruptions and lack of knowledge.
On the topic of authority that you discussed within the video I think an appropriate analogy would be that china, along with the majority of other east Asian nations, view authority and government as fulfilling more of parental role, a power that knows more along with whats best for them and shouldn't be question. Meanwhile Western peoples view themselves as fulfilling the parental role in the relationship with government and authority as they are responsible for questioning or explicitly stating when they are wrong, in order to guide them towards whats best for the nation.
In the other hand here in northAfrica and Middle east, people simply respect Power and status anyway, people dont think in conflict they simply think that the angriest and more confident is right one. and Authority does satisfy those feelings.
its also part of culture not only between authority and people but between people themselves , they value respect, and power is the way to gain it. So they(my people) value power or the Optic of power.
Content so nice, I watch it twice!
I would argue that the war lord timeline is less likely. The last war lord period is still in living memory. The Chinese are willing to do anything to prevent that from happening again. I see a more likely scenario of a military coup. There are major cliques in the CCP. The Jian Je Ming clique based out of Shanghai still has a lot of power. Also durring the day in 1989 that didn’t happen, some of the PLA was rebellious. I feel that if they can see the writing on they wall they would not support Xi. After all the Chinese love China not the CCP. I think a military coup is more likely and China adopt a not entirely representative but two party government to keep corruption down. Think of it as local officials electing big officials . One thing is sure though. If things get bad China will try to take Taiwan to keep some legitimacy. You over estimate the local people who most are too dead inside to do anything. A top down crisis is much more likely. Also Christianity might become way bigger. It already has more followers than CCP members and the Chinese Christians are very passionate.
I would rather not to the last thing, the Papacy is not doing very well and I don't trust protestants in China
A military coup? Unlikely, internally the CCP describes the PLA soldiers as "little emperors". I don't think the Chinese people are thinking about preventing a warlord period right now.
As for Christianity, it's a massive wildcard how it will play out. Especially as the religion meets traditions and philosophies. Confucionism is on the rise too. One of China's Emperors claimed to be Jesus's brother and it ended up a complete disaster, so anything can happen.
dude your videos are packaged up so well with all the key points lined up perfectly, really helps me understand and put it all together. You would make an awesome teacher/historian. thanks a lot for making these.
Are you for real? This guy makes so many sweeping generalisations. I doubt this guy has ever set one foot in China.
Okay, you just have to tell me what song that intro music is from, I have wondered for literal years.
Whatifalthist gives me a reason to live
His content is fire 🔥
That's sad if true
@@lmvr127 he doesn’t have western chauvinism, he just isn’t politically correct. The PC narrative of the the world these days is to downplay the success of the west to make all cultures feel equal, but anyone who seeks to learn true history knows that isn’t the case.
The bit about Japan in the 80s and its massive real estate boom and bust really takes on a new meaning with Evergrande and now Shimao (and countless other we have little visibility about)
Japan in the 80s was already a rich country thats why a collapse in it's growth was perminant. China still has a large portion of the country thats developing which means room to grow. This is why despite whats going on, china was reported at growing 4.5% last quarter while the entire world is slipping into recession... again.
@@hughmungus2760 With a shrinking and aging (working) population, already unaffordable housing costs, sub par median income (compared to first world countries) and sky rocketing labor costs, pray tell me, where is the room to grow? They already overbuilt for 20 years and while impressive, most of the high speed rail network is losing massive amounts of money due to corruption and costs. They pumped the made in china 2025 initiative and it stalled, they spent billions in the belt and road initiative and got..Not very much in return. I could go on but I just don't see a massive driver or room for growth in the next 20 years. Their chip manufacturing still lags behind Taiwan and Japan and they failed to bootstrap their own designs and production lines.
@@azmodanpc When it comes to 21st century technology and china, no one talks about it. Because they know China has a real good shot at being the leader in artificial intelligence, quantum tech etc.
The made in China 2025 plan definitely did not stall, even if you prefer to think that way.
@@J_X999 If that's your opinion regarding made in china 2025, something that the CCP doesn't even want to mention anymore (like the whole common prosperity propaganda), I'm fine. The part about technology I'm not so sanguine about. Like their military prowess, I can only see their propaganda and inflated numbers. Is China leading in quantum tech research? If the chip industry is an indicator, no, they are a couple of years behind and that's a fact. Their covid vaccine is less potent than the Western Imperialist made mRna one. And that is one of the reasons Xi is pushing these lockdowns. It sure made SinoFarm and other Chinese companies big bucks but that's another area where they are lagging behind other countries. I've seen plenty of drones and robots with loudspeakers shouting slogans and threats, though. That's some leading dystopian use of tech if I ever saw one.
@@azmodanpc China has the world's first quantum communication satellite system. Its been in use for a while now.
If we look at china's 14th 5 year plan, we can clearly see artificial intelligence and technology like that as their top priority. They are dumping lots of money into tech and once the CCP inevitably collapses, that technology isn't just going to evaporate into thin air.
Think about it, a democratic china ruled by let's say Taiwan, doesn't restrict people's creativity and doesn't use tech for dystopian crap etc. That's a world leader in 21st century technology.
You've understood me wrong. I think Xi and the CCP will be gone very soon. But China itself and all their advancements will be world leading if it falls into the right hands.
This is a good and informative video, enjoyed it a lot. My one constructive criticism would be to pay more attention to audio mixing and volume levels, sometimes it's jumps around
Oh damn, finishes a debate and posts a video in the same day
I appreciate you did a debate and stepping outside your comfort zone
he didn't really debate he just monologued and then ran away.
@@erei5659 TURKIYE 🐺🇹🇷🐺🇹🇷💪💪🇹🇷🐺🇹🇷🇹🇷🇹🇷🐺💪💪🐺🇹🇷🇹🇷💪💪💪🇹🇷💪💪💪🐺🐺🇹🇷💪🐺💪💪🖕🏿🖕🏿🖕🏿🖕🏿🖕🏿🖕🏿🖕🏿🖕🏿
Vaush isn't worth debating anyway.
Honestly, just made them both look bad. They should just do video debates countering their points rather than just trying to go over it on the fly.
@@LuisFlores-ls4yy Debates are a joke. The participants are incentivized to attack each other, and the viewers are incentized to treat it like a rap battle.
The real debate should be in the heart of the earnest searcher for truth. Look up different viewpoints and weigh them in your mind.
A thing Whatifalthist avoids mentioning is the strength in Chinese ethno-cultural homogeneity. 94% of the population being Han Chinese pretty much guarantees that China with its current boundaries has a strong chance of existing long into the future. Other more ethno-culturally split nations will struggle when crisis hits and people priories the in-group more while tensions and power struggles increase.
We not only have 1 billion ethnicities and religions in America, but we also have 56 genders too.
Lol Russian and French revolutions happened in even more racially homogenous nations at their time, and this was also before the age of the internet and massive dependency on energy which 85% is imported from outside its borders in China. They also didn’t have any super powerful outside nations poised to aggressively take advantage of this collapse.
It's rather hilarious how non-white countries can have their own majorities but leftietards don't cancel them.
@@jaydenshepard7928 yeah but the countries of Russia and France didn't split up.
Unfortunately for the world Its more likely that the US wil split up in 50 years than China
Whatever wignat.
It's gonna be interesting to look at how china develops over the next couple of years
Reminds me of what I understand is a famous Chinese saying: "May you live in interesting times." And it's said as a curse -- not as a blessing.
overpopulation has always been a Chinese problem since ancient times
hopefully if the population actually falls by 50% this time - the dynamic changes for once LOL
@@therearenoshortcuts9868 'hopefully if the population actually falls by 50% this time' - ok psycho.
@@Thomas-u8q
lollll
@@therearenoshortcuts9868 despite what is claimed, a shrinking chinese population will be a stabilising factor by reducing wage competition and freeing up more resources per capita. The average chinese could care less about how many people live in the country while they do care about their personal ability to afford things.
"For Americans in the audience, think of how little you consume comes from your home state, let alone the city you live in!
*Laughs in rural*
@Centurion 0mega We live in a corn-based society
Some of us wouldn’t even have to leave our property 😂
Respectfully, I don't agree. Possible tensions within the Politburo may just lead to a minor coup, and simply a return to China before Xi. The housing crisis will lead to a massive recession, but not enough to starve. I am currently most fearful for current starvation issues to somehow spiral, or the water crisis to worsen. People only revolted in Czarist Russia and France because of starvation. I don't think the current events is terrible enough to be a long term issue. (So water crisis is likely the one that threatens PRC)
Which is that are their dominant and major water supply come from Tibet
But this channel thumbnail reminds me of Three kingdom era
Best TH-cam analysis . Every analysis overstimates or understimates China .
Along with haters/wumaos saying:
He doesn’t know what he’s talking about
Or calling him arrogant
@@Dark-sx3bd spot on😂
And yohh Social credit Meme also
My guy dropping this banger straight after debating with Vaush, mad respect.
He debated Vaush?
What's vaush
@@olgagaming5544
idk, some pedo breadtuber that says one should do anything to win, have no morals or principles
a retard attracting bigger retards
The debate really needed a moderator. They both talked over each other, though it was nice seeing vaush being called out on some of his hot takes.
It's a hot mess with both sides having left bitter about each other and nothing resolved or at least achieving some understanding. I would like a rematch though.
It’s interesting to hear someone compare communist China to pre-revolution France. (I’m unimportant, but I’ve always thought that both the PRC and USSR seemed like French or Russian feudalism masquerading as communism, and post Soviet Russia seems like the same variety of feudalism, only masquerading as capitalism, now.) I don’t know if you agree, and China, especially, seems a very convoluted stew, with ingredients from any number of systems in the mix, but it’s nice to hear someone else make the connection, even if it’s only tangentially or parenthetically.
As a Hong Konger, this is both a chilling and hopeful prediction.
Maybe the british will take you back.
Chilling? More like bing chilling
@@NeoEvanA.R.T nice
It's what most of us in the european world are hoping for. "There is nothing stopping chinese people from equality to european quality of life other than the goverment that fears the transformation from civilization state to a federation of states in the civilization. (Russia has the same problem. we are all worried india will fall backward as has china under xi, and russia under putin).
We will see but you guys are going to get dragged in to this fight and be ready your place will be reduced to rubble with the fighting etc.
I'm glad you addressed that no revolution succeeds unless the army joins in or stands aside.
In this case I believe that the PLA would side with the revolutionaries. Xi recently did a very Stalinesque purge of the officer corps, eliminating entire chains of command in the ostensible name of rooting out corruption. In reality it was getting rid of officers who were or might become more faithful to their superiors than to Xi himself. In the short term this works, but in the long run it leads to officers looking for any reason to revolt...so long as they think they can get away with it.
The French army did not decide overnight to support the Revolution. It was a smoldering resentment against the king and nobility that caught fire once the Revolutionary Committee stood up. The officer corps of the PLA probably has that same resentment.
@@fredlougee2807 My understanding of these issues is superficial at best since I can't read a single Chinese character. Even if I could read and therefore interact with more internal sources I would also need expertise in cultural nuance. The true underlying sentiment is unknown to me.
The information we get is meant to make us feel upset with one group and sympathetic to another using the power of synonyms.
You can't get news without sensationalism and agenda to some degree.
Someone once told me if you want to know history, read between the lines of what the victors wrote.
It's like that with the news.
What are they trying to get me to think and why? How biased are their synonyms and "semantics" (which the subconscious takes literally). And this is just western media I'm talking about. The polarization builds and both sides fight dirtier now. Expect it to get worse in the future.
As far as I'm concerned the world is a chess board, countries are just pieces, the Bilderberg Group and Trilateral Commission are the current players.
Look at the size of Vanguard and Blackrock. Not only do they own a piece of everything, they also own a substantial piece of each other making for some interesting legal opacity and playful finger pointing.
I think the people of China are every bit as docile as we are. Same stockholm syndrome, same beaten-dog syndrome. Gov't goes to scratch it's nose and we wince like we're about to be backhanded.
I doubt the army and I doubt the people even more. Not their spirit, their organization.
1:42 skip the ad
Civil conflict and warlording is pretty much what I see happening realistically myself. It's what tends to happen to China.
I speak and read Chinese fluently.
This video is insightful, it speaks in broad generalities which in general are accurate but always have exceptions, so take it with a grain of salt but it's basically right!
WELL DONE!
6:39 - I can't speak from a Chinese or Japanese perspective, but something I find very interesting here - in the example of America, the populace openly criticise their systems for not being better, so refinement and optimisation, however when this system is attacked, it generally solidifies to retaliate - this as opposed to praising the system and then attacking it from the inside when attacked - so interesting
I have to say that my parents emmigrated to Australia just in time, hopefully my extended family well weather through 😞
I fear for all the immigrants of color living in Australia when the country finally goes through an economic recession. Australia has been experiencing uninterrupted economic growth for the past few decades and has opened its doors to immigrants yet despite all of that there is still such an underlying level of racism in the society. There’s still pretty much a them vs us mentality. People are still pretty much separated. I live there for a few years and it’s very apparent how negatively a lot of people view immigrants despite the high level of income and standard of living that everyone enjoys. I can only imagine how bad things are going to get when an economic recession happens and peoples wages and standards of living starts droppings. They’ll be blaming every person of color that they see. That’s just my observation though, I would rather live in Australia over China any day.
@@enticingmay435 I agree with you 100% I may want to add that I see racism against Europeans too. There are many social groups primarily of Asians/other groups who are against Europeans. I've heard it myself since i hang out with a lot of Asians when they talk about how 'white people' are lame, uncultured and the source of the worlds problems and then tell me that im different because im 'cultured' and from europe itself. On the other hand I hear racism against non-europeans just as much, especially with the older population and areas where there little to no diversity in demographics and its really gross to see. I see a society that could potentially fracture in the future, especially if standard of living starts to stagnate.
@@kongregatefan67
aye, everyone potentially hates everyone at this point
if there is a collapse i expect all the races to attack each other, including asians vs blacks, mexicans vs Muslims etc etc..
One thing to highlight on why there is anger on Shanghai is the lockdown is poorly executed with no planning, the Shanghai government is reluctant to shut down Shanghai because of economic reasons and attempts some half assed measures, which neither satisfy the population nor effectively shutdown covid, when the leak of a quarantine zone occur, its spreads and the Shanghai government shutdown the city immediately, which gave no time for people to prepare (i guess they have a point where its supposed to prevent people from leaving the city before lockdown), the lockdown is supposed to be a week or two, at least thats what the Shanghai government promised, but its clear that they cannot control it within the time. So Shanghai people are fed up as the Shanghai government broken the promise. As for people out of Shanghai, they dislike Shanghai for having special privileges, reluctant and delay to lockdown is not afforded to them, so they are being sarcastic with Shanghai's situation now. But, I dont think this will be Fall of China or anything close.
The thing is, the history with China is that local governments far from capital/ central government ignore plight of people or mishandled for decades, the news did not reach the central government, which builds up a lot of resentment. In the modern age, such problems are almost impossible to hide from central government, once people launch complaints or complain on soc med about the central government, they are almost forced to act immediately, the CCP's survival depends on appeasing the people enough for them to lead a normal life. Even now, the Shanghai government is probably being mass fired from their positions with people replacing them being reminded on what will happen if they fucked up, while food supplies nation wide are redirected and given priority to quarantine areas. I dont see CCP failing this century,. CCP have to fuck up majorly for China to rebel, not just resentment of Shanghai, like literally need China to be Somalia or Sudan level of poverty and lawlessness. Someday they might fall, China will be broken up but its a matter of time before they would be reunited under a new faction, establishing a new dynasty.
Time is the best judge. Almost a year has passed since this the date of this clip, and China is thriving - its GDP for 2023 is estimated to grow 5.2%. On the other hand, these countries are experiencing some spectacular fall - UK: -0.3%, Germany: -0.1%, US: 1.6%. So, are we changing the title to 'the Fall of the West'?
Things like this don't happen overnight kid just use your head a little bit
@@daniellap.stewart6839 Yeah, the epic fall of the West does not happen overnight! I totally agree
@@VL-inquisitor Dumbass population crisis takes time for falling it'll take probably 15 years.
This is probably one of my favorite channels on youtube. keep it up 👍
Intro: “the most populous country on earth and second biggest economy is going to collapse and engender great suffering”
*electric guitar riff*
I would love to hear commentary on mass shootings. This is the channel where I first heard the aphorism, "if you fall to give young men a sense of belonging in the village, they will burn the village down".
Mass shootings is basically western equivalent of suicide bombings.Dissafected young men choosing violence due to lack of advancement,it will only increase in the future like how terrorism rapidly increased in the Middle East as the economy starts slowing down
I wonder how you could do as a world leader lol " Whatifalthist rebuilt ____ country " would be an amazing series
@@cyberwar4111 It sure does .
@@cyberwar4111 Nobody asked
As a Chinese Canadian I gotta say you nailed a outta stuff in this video.
I have a feeling the world is going to change DRASTICALLY in the coming decades, and none of us are gonna be ready….
@@cyberwar4111 true, but the type of change on the horizon is feels like it’s gonna make the last several decades look like child’s play
As Gen Z, we are kinda of fucked
@@cyberwar4111 and yet there are periods where the change happens vastly more severely, as you well know
I found the map you were referencing. Interestingly, when I set ages to 13-30, a lot of the east Asian countries, including China, switched from shame to guilt. That gives me reason to be optimistic for their future.
Maybe that switch demonstrates the cultural spread of western ideals. Slowly shifting even old societies set in their ways. American media is a global export.
A nice treat after the Vaush debate, a surprise for sure but a welcome one!
Yeah
I needed to get the bad taste out of my mouth. They were both so awful in that
How bad was the debate? As soon as I heard vaush say he wanted a debate I thought it would be a terrible idea. Then I heard it was happening and I don't know if it is worth my time.
@@happytrees6484 It's Vaush, so no progress was actually made. But it was nice to see WIAH stand up to him and run circles around him. They were able to agree when it comes to healthcare and trains though. I thought it was fun, at the very least.
@@Supreme_Goldfish I kind of liked it too, minus the pseudo-intellectualism from WIAH, asking for a list of books instead of addressing the issue directly. That strategy can be used to avoid any direct debate, so I find it cheap. Not saying that Vaush was good, just saying I expected good from WIAH.
Can you do a collaboration with Serpentza to talk further about this? I think he’d provide some great insight to back up your points
lol that racist prick.
That would be an interesting crossover…
Whatifalthist: Uploads a video.
2 months later:The Chinese financial crises began.Some regional banks fail. Chinese citizens stop their mortgage payments.
Whatifalthist is just too smart
The coming years will see a lot of changes from the post-Soviet balance of power that's existed for the past 30 years.
If you had released this even as little as 2 weeks ago I would have suggested you were over reacting. Today, I'm trying to re-work almost the entirety of all of my geopol analysis due to the trends that these lockdowns have set in motion and how they compound the global instability that the current war and coming famines will bring.
He has been shockingly accurate in recent time, he's definitely getting good at this stuff!
Great determiner for world reference
Ironically the largest impact of covid has come from our attempts to avoid it, rather than the virus itself.
He's way off the mark about China falling. America is the one falling not China, China is rising, unfortunately. I guess gas prices are low and groceries are cheap. He seems so out of touch it isnt funny.
@@thetapheonix will you please invest all of your money betting on the US collapsing?
Didn't know you were a fellow Pennsylvanian! Thats cool. Love your channel.
I think what's interesting is that Japan just instantly becomes the wealthiest nation in Asia in this scenario... under its own increasingly militant and paranoid government that fears its own population halving. Could lead to a Second Sengoku Jidai in Japan as the world economy collapses with China or they invade the Chinese.
I could see Japan not welcoming in Chinese refugees and that causing enough tensions to provoke a war.
I don't think Japan is going to fracture, though.
They gonna get nuked mega.
A scenario where Japan invades the Chinese would immediately give the Chinese a common enemy like in world war 2. But this time, china would probably have the strength to push Japan out.
Japan has even worse demographic problems than China and even less martial spirit than Modern Germany. I really don't get why everyone thinks they are gonna be this future superpower.
@@declanfeeney7004 Because people are always biased towards Japan
That was a fantastic video. I'm a well, and broadly educated westerner who lived in China for three years. This was just excellent. Thank you for your amazing content. Bless you.
Funny you should mention the French Revolution, I saw a friend of mine in Shanghai posting a "do you hear the people sing" video on social media a couple of days ago.
Lol you debating Vaush was hilarious like once you talked about communism he looked so pissed off.
If the CCP and central government collapses, the what happens to it's nuclear weapons? What is stopping one PLA general duking it out with a rival general? It will spiral out of control if one PLA general has tactical nukes and I don't see any hesitation of use in the umpteenth Chinese Civil War.
Probably would doubt that if the Chibese generals would view chinese people as assets to rule over.
However, in an American civil war you'd probably get californians wanting to Purge Texans off the continent for being "homophobic Christian bigots" or something .
@@CantoniaCustoms That is an ignorant view of Chinese history, which is littered with civil conflicts. Even the current CCP government is a participant in the last civil war and won it. That civil conflict had warlords changing sides very quickly. Even the first Chinese dynasty is a product of civil conflict between multiple warlords.
Maybe the PLA doesn't touches the nukes when the CCP collapses. That would be great.
What I am unable to understand, is why Chinese mainlanders would care at all about Taiwan. How would unifying Taiwan under the CCP change their lives?
It wouldn't it's an honor thing
Even though I may disagree with some of your political views I still enjoy your content a lot. 🙂❤
Vaush viewer I see huh? :P
@@bucherregaldomi9084 Idk who Vaush is but I saw the last 2 mins of their debate today lol
Tbh it kinda sucked for both people.
His view of rationalism is completely wrong and sometimes he is very ignorant
@@AmirSatt well, we can honestly say that he's pretty ignorant about everything outside of North America.
Which, in itself, isn't necessarily a bad thing. The problem is that he speaks as if he knew a lot and make wild and absurd predictions based on this ignorance. And most of his community just takes whatever he says as truth.
The next era of history will be without a global power. It will be interesting. I expect a pirate revival due to lack of internationally secure trade, which of ye landlubbers wants to join me crew? We'll be called "the lurchin' urchins"!
WHERE DO I SIGN UP
Straw hats
I'm going to create mine and call it Amogugos
Pirates with bio weapons will sound interesting…
JUST 2 MORE WEEKS BRO, JUST 2 MORE WEEKS AND CHINA WILL COLLAPSE BRO, BRO TRUST ME BRO, JUST 2 MORE WEEKS BRO
Aged well lol
And funnily enough, "Do You Hear the People Sing?" from Les Miserable is being shared like crazy across Chinese social media.
Which also was an unofficial song if the HK protestors
I saw this video about how so many problems can be solved by just building more houses. I didn't watch it but I find it interesting that a major point of what's wrong with china is their housing market.
I also watched that video, and I definitely recommend it to anyone who hasn’t. It does oversimplify things, but the decrease in homeownership and quality of housing has caused enormous problems.
Can you share this video?? I'm REALLY curious. I've always known the housing market is really fucked up but didn't know that it could solve so much just by having a bigger access to it
@@TheMentorOfMomos f I see it again I'll do that.
“Think about how much food you eat actually comes from your state”
*Midwest has entered the chat *
I lije your posts on China and generally i agree with some of your risk assesments. But with this one it is difficult. I was living in China between 1999 and 2013. From about 2003 people started talking about this "son of Mao" who was publicly speaching for a return to maoist times. People were nerveous about it, also my acquintances in governmental positions. There was this strong democratization movement building up in China due to the freedoms Hu Jintao allowed. People felt in their guts the ambitions of Xi would lead to repression and limitations of freedom after the first signs of a crisis. There was at the same time this nostalgia about the cultural revolution, that even affected young people who were not there. Xi exists because of the nostalgia. The question js, when a new maoist era starts, but then with more wealth, will it decay or stabilize?
it will decay. possessions are not secured or maintained if no one gives a shit about them. Hell, even in the capitalist experiment China tried, they built all those ghost cities out of crap, and the units are waiting to be finished, because no one lives there, and maybe no one will ever live there, except worms and pigeons. In nature nothing is ever truly stable, things grow, or they decline, the tide is coming in, or its in retreat. No system man has ever created can fully override natural forces. So, people are improving their properties because they are settled, they love their home,, and trust their neighbors and officials, or properties are falling into ruin and disrepair because people rather take their chances somewhere else, maybe even in the wilderness because the predators out there are animals, and not criminals, police, and soldiers, who can take away all the perceived value of living in a society. Cities are built on aspirations, and they fall into disrepair on corruption, fear, and anguish., regardless of the ascribed value of the property, or the ascribed value of the currency, because people are not property or currency, they are human, and they all have their breaking point. The strong break, and they refuse to care for anyone but themselves because they trust and love no one else, and the weak break, and they die in bed because no one is left to care for them. I'm not seriously religious, but the Bible verse James 5:1-4 is a sage warning not to break the spirit of humanity, or divinity, but to align with it. If greed turns against one's blood cold against what is good for others, even gold quickly becomes worthless.
On the plus side, the current dynasty seems a _lot_ like the oppressive Qin. Well, at least after the Qin came the Han, one of the more impressive governments of the preindustrial age. So perhaps the world may get lucky and the next Chinese dynasty will resemble the Han a lot more, with honorable, meritocratic systems and a duty to the people.
Or....the decadent and ineffectual Jin which lead to the Sixteen kingdom era. Either way I think the next "dynasty" will take a 180 on politics
@@therearenoshortcuts9868
Consecutive harvest failures and state bankruptcy Qin suffered were close enough though. The Eight Flags Imperial Army was disbanded by all intend and purpose when Taiping Rebellion kicked off, with the aftermath gave birth to Warlord Era.
Han was also deeply expansionist and did some mad colonialism in Vietnam and central Asia, so idk if that's a great metric for moral goodness. Though all empires back then were like that so idk.
@@thanakonpraepanich4284 You're thinking of Qing, not Qin. Qin was the very first Chinese imperial dynasty, Qing was the very last one ruled by the Manchu Aisin Gioro clan.
@TerritoriesOfMan12 edgy
As a Chinese, I just feel, hahaha, you are really interesting 😂😂😂
This, from the day I started getting into TH-cam, has been listened to on repeat every day
I would have liked to watch the debate, however unfortunately I literally can't bear to listen to vaush speak for more than 30 seconds. He's not only wrong, he's a liar (and he knows it). He's also extremely arrogant, and spits venom at a moments notice.
In all honesty you made the right choice. The first half of the debate was vaush saying that modern day social justice and abolitionist are the exact same and constantly interesting rud when he was making his argument. The second half mean while was vaush owning himself saying things like I kid you not to get to an anarchist society I would raise taxes and the tried and true real communism has never been tried argument. Unfortunately vaush is actually a savy debater at least to when it comes to getting under an opponents skin so the first half vaush won because rud kinda lost his cool while the second half was a firm win for rud.
(Sorry for the length of this comment didn’t mean to rant.)
Debates are a stupid form of discourse, anyway. They're like the meat-head bro-down's of the mental world, without actually solving issues or educating anyone.
Not to mention tbat Vaush isn't a debater, or even a liberal. What he truly is,is an authoritarian amoralist ideologue and Rhetorician. Dishonest doesn't cover it. He is a downright malicious actor who is a total waste of time. Not to mention that ideologically and morally, you couldn't reasonably call him a socialist, he has the moral and ideological structure of a madman
@@MrLeemurman tbh the best form of debate is when a debater lets the other one talk more, so they could showcase how shit their arguments are..
@@tannerraque4348 "was vaush saying that modern day social justice and abolitionist are the exact same" hooo man, strawman-fallacy really? Or you can't comprehend what he says about this? Social justice is not the exact same as abolitionism, not even by Vaush standards.
In my very limited opinion, this is the best channel on YT
It's great, unfortunately the creator is extremely young and needs to learn more about the world, so he makes some big mistakes. But he's genuine and insightful.
@@effervescentevanescenttran6331 he’s really knowledgeable for his age. Would love to see how his opinions evolve over time.
Really trying to make huge geo-political predictions from children's coloring book maps that have no basis in reality. It's good cringe content.
If you look only at China in recent history it’s pretty dark and grim, but if you look at the history of China you know that it’s breaks apart all the time and will eventually do the same as all empires do
Mandate of Heaven status: *Lost*
NEW CHALLENGE: HEAVENLY KINGDOM
They never had it in the first place place
@@stevecooper7883 heavenly Roman Empire world conquest
@@chalernch.483 Well after 1976 they got it
@@stevecooper7883 lol let's GOOOO
It's interesting that people look at China today in the same manner that the Old World looked at the United States during the Depression. Within 20 years, the US got its act together and participated successfully in WWII that was already well underway in Europe. I think it's a bit preemptive to assume that China is going to fall into revolution. I think it's probably more likely that they'll have a harsh decade in the 2020s, but emerge just as powerful economically as they were in the 2010s. We'll see though. It may not be the CCP, but the nation as a whole will probably remain just as nationalistic and united.
People overestimate what has happened in the past, and underestimate what's not happened yet. Just like 2007 subprime crisis.
two different mindsets and cultures
At some point, the Communists will pass into history the same way past Chinese dynasties came and went over the last 4000 years or so, replaced by yet another dynasty with or without periods of disunity and civil strife. The Communists know this too. They judge their success by how many years they can hold power in China until a new dynasty inevitably comes to replace them. The Communists are hoping for a couple more centuries. This video is saying we'll be finding out the answer sooner rather than later.
The US government and American mindset is/was completely different from China though. Unless the government in China drastically changes I don't see these problems getting solved.
America =/= China
amazing video, but please check that your audio is a consistent volume between sections! :
There are basically three types of Dynasties in China: the cruel, the effective, and the right.
1. The cruel regimes typically emerge after periods of long-term division and warfare within China, namely the Qin, the Sui, the Yuan, and the CCP (but this also includes near-unifiers, the the former Qin). Given the period in which they emerged, these regimes typically specialize in the application of violence. This makes sense, after all, as good governance and accountability to one's subjects matters little if you can't wage war effectively against those states that might otherwise conquer you. This typically breeds a competition wherein the state that most effectively dominates the battlefield eventually wins out. Having no experience of proper governance, however, such regimes typically come from a strategic doctrine which emphasizes control and elimination of rival power centers over empowerment of forces that might otherwise govern China in the 'correct' manner. Without some sort of force in the state itself which moderates the application of power, these states almost always devolve into quasi-despotic regimes in which the maintenance of state power is given paramouncy over the actual execution of the duties of the state. The mandate quickly leaves the regime when some natural disaster/calamity occurs primarily because it is viewed that the state was not doing enough to address the problem in the first place (regardless of if state power could've had any effect) and/or, especially in the case of military defeats (like in the case of the Sui), that such adverse circumstances are the result of such endless pursuit of power. In other words, the linking of the state's popularity to control creates a system where control is prioritized above all else.
2. The effective regimes (Shang, Han, Tang and Ming) are able to emerge in the aftermath of these cruelties because they can take advantage of some of the institutional relationships built up in the previous regime, not the least of which are centralized military organizations and a reinvigorated notion that the central state in China has some role to play in the well-being of the nation. This also ignores the fact that, most likely, the conditions under the cruel regime have been improved to some extent by that regime's elimination of military competition. The prospect of returning to the alternative of warlords is too frightful. This being said, having emerged as a counterpoint to the cruel and indifferent regime prior to it, the existence of the regime is closely linked to the ability of the regime to honor and respect the mandate and, I dunno, provide effective government services and aid. This combination of a state for which both military efficacy and good governance are defining aspects of their social contract creates an incredibly durable social contract, wherein both the carrot (delivery of government services) and the stick (threat of violence) are utilized to create a cohesive and unified society. Like most organizations that are successful, however, this becomes their downfall. The decentralization of power inherent to the reliance on government officials who are supposed to have an a priori commitment to good invariably invites corrupt officials, like Wang Mang, Wu Zetian, An Lushan, or Dong Zhou, who usurp the power of the state for themselves. The general reaction to this is a doubling-down on the 'good officials, good government' model, and the process repeats itself (primarily because control is antithetical to the implicit social contract of the regime and because the failure of the corrupt officials is often said to be their corruption rather than their lack of control) until the state no longer wields effective central military power.
3. The right regimes (Zhou, Jin, Song, and Qing) then pick up the pieces after these effective regimes fall. These are usually incredibly bloody times, think Three Kingdoms and end of Ming dynasty (including the Imjin Wars), and the contrast between the starkness of constant interstate conflict and the relative peace of the unified period of China under a regime which actually saw the people as ends unto themselves creates strong political incentives for regimes to emulate the deeds of previous regimes, especially with respect to their filially pious role as head of the Chinese nation. I call these regimes right because they are usually the best in the technical execution the Confucian values, albeit at the expense of performing the often brutal role that being the leader of an empire requires to maintain stability. I'll hand it to these regimes (esp. Zhou and Song): their correct execution of values and morals often means that these regimes are cultural and economic powerhouses despite their relative militaristic paucity. Nonetheless, without a sword to convince the population that the olive branch is the better choice, enterprising rival regimes/politicians often can and do challenge said regimes because they so utterly lack any military legitimacy. The result is the eventual fall of the regime, and although the same strong political incentives exist now as existed at the start of the regime, the relative ease with which competitors in the political arena can usurp said popularity with brute force invariably means that no regime can build up the popularity to rebuild a unified China before being destroyed by military competition. Without the ability to overcome opponents militarily, such regimes will never unify China, and the process repeats.
This is true but there is one problem. The descendants of the great dynasties of old are no longer in China.
I would definitely not call Ming a right regime, at least not after the first few emperors.
Nice post
@@DinoMan_6 but the PLA is, and the oligarchs are.
Interesting analysis, and one to keep in mind. By this theory, China's on the verge of throwing off the totalitarian CCP, though not necessarily removing all of the values that the CCP instilled in them. (Unless a new prophet - a new confucius or lao tzu - comes along). Just heading up to a next Han dynasty or something, that will actually last for some centuries.
Finally another confirmation regarding my prediction of the Collaspe of the Muscovite and Han Civilization States. Hope your days going well Whatifalthist, cheers! 😃
Sad that those civilisations have a good chance of collapse
@@vyktorehon5995 Agreed it is a unexageratable tragedy as both future events are likely to cause more death and suffering than most if not all previous events in Human history thus far.
@@InquisitorXarius yea and they had so much promise just 100 years ago. It's a true tragedy
@@vyktorehon5995 why? English people and their decadents in the US are the leading civilization power currently and they stemmed from a literal fracturing of saxony to pressures from Teutons, suebi tribes and franks. The angles were refugees fleeing Flemish and Viking deprivations.
Just because an ethno-state fractures, doesn’t mean it’s sad or even bad for said ethnicities.
still weird that whatifalthist uses old qing history rather than new qing history