Decoding Craps through Dice Counting
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 24 ก.ค. 2024
- Analysis of 125,000 dice rolls reveals many connections! Not as random as most people think. This video explores a few different connections/patterns and extreme events while offering some betting strategies based on information from 125,000 rolls. www.dicecounting.com
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I found your video amazing. I'm retired and starting to dabble again with low budget table games. You answered my question about a consistent repeat pattern no matter how many gazillion times the dice are rolled. Almost like a destiny that can't be denied, especially by dice manipulators. It all makes perfect sense and your research confirmed what I was pondering.
Thank you very much.
really appreciate the time and effort put into this video and the data, thank you
I appreciate that! More to come!
Please visit my site when you get the chance.
www.dicecounting.com
If you believe like I do that there are patterns that offer a higher win % than what's offered by the house, I invite you to check out my craps cheat sheet. I analyzed all of the 150,000 rolls and extracted 100s of patterns that offer a players edge according to my historical data.
www.dicecounting.com/product-page/craps-pattern-cheat-sheet
The thing that fuels my desire to continuously search for new patterns is the fact that my data confirms what is already known about the house edge. If you played craps the standard way and with the bets on the layout, you WILL lose after playing with the live results of my 150,000 rolls. My patterns are not listed on any craps layout. You're not going to find a bet that says "6 consecutive NON-FIELD rolls/ 18th roll." Betting with patterns are perfectly timed bets and according to my historical data, they are bets that create an edge for the player. Thanks for watching my videos and your interest in Dice counting. Good luck at the tables! #dicecounting #crapsstrategy
you are absolutely brilliant .... WOW I really like your information and it is put together well and clear also .... thank you
Thanks Claude!
Please visit my site when you get the chance.
www.dicecounting.com
If you believe like I do that there are patterns that offer a higher win % than what's offered by the house, I invite you to check out my craps cheat sheet. I analyzed all of the 150,000 rolls and extracted 100s of patterns that offer a players edge according to my historical data.
www.dicecounting.com/product-page/craps-pattern-cheat-sheet
The thing that fuels my desire to continuously search for new patterns is the fact that my data confirms what is already known about the house edge. If you played craps the standard way and with the bets on the layout, you WILL lose after the live results of my 150,000 rolls. My patterns are not listed on any craps layout. You're not going to find a bet that says "6 consecutive NON-FIELD rolls/ 18th roll." Betting with patterns are perfectly timed bets and according to my historical data, they are bets that create an edge for the player. Thanks for watching my videos and your interest in Dice counting. Good luck at the tables! #dicecounting #crapsstrategy
You folks have just too much patience in your hands, in doing this type of work. I will just take your word for it, --> thank you Mr. Graham for your very hard work, and in producing this video.
Oscar
Let me be the first to comment. First off, thank you for this awesome video. You explain things great. Lets get that right. Now that I have the pleasantries out of the way; I have done the same thing as you. I have spent the better part of the 20 years studying the "diceology" of craps. The problem with what you have accomplished is the simple fact that you took 125k rolls and threw it under the microscope and then dissected them to find a winning formula. Meaning, you hand crafted your bets to your rolls. I too found the same similarities with the dice probabilities. I noticed all the same patterns. I actually started out and tested the 3 tier lay 4 method in actual casino's. I did NOT however wait for a 4, 5, or 6 count on the lay 4 as you suggest. One could be at the craps table for days waiting for that particular scenario to resolve itself. And once it finally does, you are talking about a $20 payout on that $41 bet. Why bother? Lets assume that you went to the Borgata in Atlantic City and waited for the 8 count on the 4 or 10 to show and you decided to make a table max bet which in this case would be 10k to win a 5k max payout. Before you decided to actually make this bet I would urge you to "go back to the drawing board" and roll another 125k rolls. You will see all the same probabilities and similarities but with one tiny minute exception.. You will see that dreaded 4 showed for the 9th time. Trust me. I have taken your studies and expanded them 10 fold. My point is that on a long enough time line you will see things you never knew possible. In other words, the bell curve NEVER ends. What ends is your ability to continue to keep throwing dice to expand your probabilities. I really appreciate your attempt to find that "bullet proof" bet, but it simply doesn't exist. I have taken almost every bet on the entire craps table and devised a "wait and then progress system." IN the end, all will eventually hit the "point of ruin." If you really want to win at this game in the long run; learning the art of rhythmic rolling is your only hope. Thanks for the vid and cheers.
Thanks for looking at my videos and your kind words. It's great to know there is someone else that took the time to extensively research the way I did. I totally understand what you are talking about because my last visit resulted in about 3 patterns unraveling. I've found hundreds of patterns and although it is not humanly possible to keep track of all, the majority of my patterns holds up. I don't believe my system is "bullet proof" but if we are talking about the totality of winning bets in relation to the patterns I've found and the occasional loss, my wins always out-number my losses. My goals are different from the average player. Although I play to win I don't always expect to win because I'm primarily playing from an observational standpoint. I'm there to collect data and analyze and test what i already know. This is my intention for now. The reason I'm not profit minded is because I don't believe I have enough data and more importantly, there are still unknowns. In that respect, I'm not a gambler. I'm not willing to take a huge risk on the unknown. My passion is in the research and findings that I constantly come across. I'm willing to stand for 9 hours at a table collecting roll data. That dedication is few and far between. As the size of my data increases and my patterns are refined, my next step is to look into many betting strategies and effective money management. Money management isn't my area of expertise so I have plans to seek the help of someone professional when I reach that point. Currently, I stay for no less than 5 hours straight and play with a bankroll of $200 - $500. Realistically a much bigger bankroll is required to combat the house edge, survive losses and effectively wrestle with all the patterns that I've found. I call it statistical jiu jitsu. I've heard of rhythmic rolling and although some have had success with that, I'm on a different mission. There is much much more than what I talk about in my videos and that is the reason I'm still going full steam ahead with this. Stay tuned for more and if you are willing to share your real life roll data, I will plug into my existing data and test the patterns to see how everything holds up. Once again, thanks for your interest!
re: rhythmic rolling. Do some statistics on being able to keep the dice on the same axis for most of your rolls. Meaning if you set the dice with the 1's and 6's on the sides of both die and you can keep the dice "on axis" when they land, you will successfully eliminate the one and six from ever showing. Thus taking your probability from 36 dice combination down to a dice combination of 16. To make it even sweeter you use "hop bets" that swing the odds into your favor. So, if you can keep the dice on axis and eliminate the 1 and 6 your possible dice combos are: 22,23,24,25,,32,33,34,35,,42,43,44,45,,52,53,54,55. The beuaty of the hop bet is that it covers both dice combos. Even though the 24 and 42 are two different combos the 42 hop bet covers both combos. So, of these 16 combos there are only 10 hopbet combos that will show(keeping the dice on axis). The hop bet pays 15 to 1. The hardway hopbets (22,33,44,55) pay 30 to 1. Just so that I don't mess up your natural evolution of your timeline of knowledge, I won't let you know exactly the most optimal way to bet the hop bets. (for example, I won't tell you to choose 7 of the 10 possible hop bets to bet everytime) ;) Seriously, IF IF IF you can ever master the art of keeping the dice on axis, then and only then can you kick A$$ every time. and on each throw, even if you miss one of your 7 hop bets you can create a progression that make it literally impossible not to chase down your loss(assuming you keep the dice on axis). Have fun with your journey and I will definitely keep an eye on your progress. ps. if u do in fact ever discover the bullet proof system; remember all the kind words I gave you.
Thanks for this great info! It all makes sense in the way that you present this here however, there is an element that must be considered in this equation. Your equation for success here contains all of the physical elements that make sense in Newton's wold. It obeys the laws of physics BUT I know with great certainty that there are other forces involved and outside of this that is key to make this equation complete. I don't want to wax metaphysical now because I will certainly lose interest and possibly validity. I would rather prove metaphysical affects through numbers and observational notes. Through my extensive observation and recordings, I've seen many dice setters come and go. Some successful, most not. What has been constant in my observations of their methods is a short unprofitable roll. I must add that there is a good chance that all of the rhythmic shooters I have encountered just don't really know what they are doing. Thanks to these guys, I'm just not convinced. I need a rhythmic rolling redeemer to jump on board. I've seen and done tests where I've dropped dice from 1" above the table and get varied results inconsistent to the results touted from career rhythmic rollers. Results that doesn't give me a lot of faith in rhythmic rolling. I know how important it is to try something a few thousand times before judging so I will not go on record to say that rhythmic rolling doesn't work. In fact, I never tested for specific dice roll combinations and that could have been the determining factor. I was just testing to avoid 7s. I believe in a process of testing and good knowledge on a subject before offering an opinion. I will give your method a try because I am actually a great rhythmic shooter and my dice always stay in line and on axis. I just never explored the hop bets. It was just about avoiding 7s and repeating inside numbers. I'll let you know how that turns out. Thanks for the info!
Ronald Graham
tigerpark135
The trick is to keep the dice on axis, which is easier said than done. You have three axiom, the x, y, and z. If one or both dice go off axis you have entered the random roll with the bell curve distribution. Even if you can keep the dice on axis, the triangular patterns on the back wall change the dice such that it is random. So in my observation it is nearly impossible to set and throw dice if you hit the back wall. I would use other methods such as short term dice trends to profit. As a fellow dice player who has studied the math and real play you likely would agree that there are patterns which can be used to make a small profit. One of the patterns I have used it to bet the don't pass after a "hot roll". Maybe you can shed some light on my observation and back it up with your sample size?
@Ronald: You have too much talent to be wasting your time on craps. tigerpark135 is absolutely right, you are being fooled by finding patterns in randomness. Instead of investing time and money at the craps table where the house has an advantage, you could have done the same with the stock market, where at least in general you have a long-term advantage.
Something to consider greatly! Thank you!
This is a research and dedication.
The chart shows that the shooter made 9 points in that roll. The 8 is called a "cluster numbers" After you see a number roll twice before the 7 place that number. If it is not rolled in the next 4 rolls take the bet down. We go over cluster numbers in the new book Platinum Craps. Cluster numbers come and go. The key is to bet them when they come up.
Very interesting. Thanks for your commitment to gather this data and share it. Out of all your rolls, what’s the most 7s did you roll in a row? How often did you see three 7s in row? How about four 7s in a row? Please don’t count the 7 out as your first 7. Because there will times on the table that you 7 out, then you next roll a few come out 7s. That would be three 7s in a row. So just count the 7s starting with the come out. I think if you wait for three 7s in a row, then jump in with an Iron Cross bet of $10,200 you can win $1700 in one roll. Then you take it all down and walk out of the casino.
Hi, I don’t know if you still around, but I really appreciate all the hard work that you’ve put in to all of these. Do you have any numbers statistic of 6/8 vs the 7 like how many 7 before the 6/8 or how many most 6/8 before 7?
I have got to say I really admire your "stick-to-it-ness" in your research of dice-rolling permutations. It is the best stuff I've yet to encounter on YT. With that preface in mind, please do not construe the following as criticism, because it's not.
I think you're missing some possible major factors in your search for predictable dice outcomes. Two of them come to mind. The first is pre-throw dice orientation. Since I'm relatively new to Craps, ( as in "I've never played it but I'm headed to Tunica on Dec. 17th"), I'm still looking at dice-setting as one part of my studies into the predictability of dice outcomes.
There are several YT videos that talk about dice-setting, but all I've seen so far are what I would call definitive. A cat named koganinja777 seems to be the one closest to "getting it", (and seems to have developed a side hustle in relation to it, (good for him!). Here's a link for one of his on the topic.
th-cam.com/video/AIpDVd1IKFQ/w-d-xo.html
Koganinja777 though does not go far enough and his results seem... vague. I appreciate his starting positioning of "hard four up, hard deuce to you", but how different is that from a "hard2up, hard3@you" or a "hard3up, hard5@you", and so forth? Koganinja777 has 10 "sets" he covers, which seem somewhat like permutations of each other, but it begs the question, how many set permutations are there? Put another way, how many different ways can dice be set and more importantly, how does that affect probability of final roll outcomes?
The second factor is as you can guess, the "golden arm factor". Presuming that one could throw the very exact same way every time, (Golden Arm), what are the probabilities of throwing any given desired outcome with any given desired frequency? In other words, if you were to set "hard4up,hard2@you" every time, with what frequency would you hit a 6 or an 8? A 5 or a 9? 70% of the time? 60%? I think that anything approximating 50% means you are now back to random.
Other thoughts: Table "bouncy-ness" would certainly be a factor. The waffling of the backsplash might, but not if you were approaching what I call the "Perfect Pitch". That would entail the dice landing within 3 inches of the backsplash (waffling) and coming to rest against it, (technically a "good throw" by casino rules). Still. I think bouncy-ness is overrated and used as an excuse for crappy throwing, (pun intended).
To test all of this out one would have to set up a mechanical swing arm that would release the dice at the same location every time and throw them with the same force, etc. Then one could calculate regularity of outcomes over a few hundred/thousand rolls for each "set" of dice-position permutations.
Once done, then, (and only then), could one go into a casino and having developed precision in their throwing style, go in and clean up, golden arm-style.
Now, I know that this can and is being done. There are some folks out there doing something similar, (The Hawaiians") to name just one group. "Golden Arms", "Golden Touch", whatever you want to call it, is real. But if you knew that a certain dice setting would give you a better than 60% chance of throwing boxcars on a consistent basis, why would you want to throw anything else? Paying at 30:1, If you can do it consistently and hit one once every ten rolls, why wouldn't you be betting Hard Sixes with black chips exclusively.
Obviously there are other factors, table position matters immensely, (I think I am going to try shooting from L1 as often as is possible). The closer one is to the "landing zone" of 3" away from the backsplash is critical. It's all about what is duplicatable.
I would love to continue this discussion. My public email is paullewis1846@gmail.com. Be well, be safe and be blessed.
p
Wow more power to you !!! TY
i watch a lot of craps videos. i also play a lot of craps. this one of the best if not the best craps videos you can watch. but watch many times and take notes........
what are your thoughts on hot or cold tables? I swear sometimes I'm rolling and i just know ill hit the 4 or the 10, or whatever point. is it a total random chance that when I'm feeling the energy of the table and the players around me that the dice fall the way i want them to?
As far as hot and cold tables, I remember recently recording 15 straight cycles where there was a single roll then seven out, 2 rolls and 7 out etc. That's pretty extreme and most of the players vacated the table after that. However from my personal experience of roll tracking I kinda knew that this was the receding shoreline before the Tsunami of rolls. After that last short roll from that cold period, there were only five 7s within the next 51 numbers. Whenever tables are cold, many players tend to keep betting with a belief that "There's no way the table can be this cold, eventually it's gonna warm up." Sometimes that thinking can be correct, but more often than not you will run out of money chasing the heat. That coldness of the table just happens to be the weather system of the day and it would probably be best to play with the weather instead of walking out in the rain without an umbrella and misplaced expectations. This is why I record rolls. Between the seemingly coldness of the table are opportunities in the form of trends. I look at the table like an ever changing weather system or even waves. If you track rolls and recognize a wave that you've seen before, you can ride that wave and get out with precision at times. As far as feeling the energy of the table and players around you I have to say this. I've been a casino party dealer for 16 years and the difference between what I do and the real setting is REAL money. I've seen A lot on both sides of the table and I am a firm believer that energy is ONE of the factors that play a role in formation of trends and rolls output. A lot of my research is based in actual numbers and spreadsheet calculations. Most seasoned craps players can agree that energy plays a role in the output of rolls. There is a realm of missing information concerning the human factor and the manifestation of roll results. It doesn't stop at raw statistics. I can tell you with great certainty that it is all connected. I just don't know how to prove it or make predictions based on observation of energy and personalities at the table. The best representation I have of people's energy are the rolls themselves after the fact. To go in depth with that type research, I would have to be much more detailed with rolls as far as labeling goes and situational assessment. Because I haven't mastered the art of bringing it all together, I can only rely on the complete record of rolls and patterns I've identified throughout it all. So I'm not qualified to answer questions about the "energy" factor. I can only say that it exists. If you would like a copy of the rolls from the visit I mentioned above, email me at crapsswinger@gmail.com and I will send you a copy so you can examine that session. Thanks!
Tables have no temperature. You can't predict ANYTHING using past rolls.
+jake yes, this happens to me, but it only happens once in 2 hours, so I get that knowing feeling and bet it, but I wish it would happen a lot more often.
You are the real MVP
Ronald are you just recording random rollers and dice setters both in the same randomness category or separate cause I would think that the dice setters ("dice controllers") would have a slight or maybe a small advantage? And have you ran into some dice setters that had a long roll while you were at the tables? Thanks for the dice counting.
Hi 1Bash, thanks for viewing my video and your kind words. When I record dice rolls, I don't discriminate. I record everyone. The only things that throw the accuracy of my rolls data off are shooters that fiddle with the dice and PRE-roll the dice backwards in an effort to rid the dice of 7s and bouncy dice that go off the table. I don't record the results of those rolls. My hope is that the larger the size of data, the more those little instances half rolls and dice off the table has less of a negative affect on the data accuracy. The reason that I haven't separated random rollers and dice setters is because I just haven't seen compelling rolls that seem to defy trends. I'm not trying to discredit the art of dice setting because quite honestly I've never seen a person effectively capitalize on the method. I'm beginning to think all the professional dice setters are in Vegas because I just don't see any on the East Coast. So at this point I really can't say if they would have a slight or even small advantage.
1Bash dice setters are random rollers just like anyone
Wow! This is great information! I know a guy in our local casino that tracks everyone's roll whenever he's playing. He has years of raw data, if you're interested. Is this random throwing?
thank you
I found a flaw... I've seen several times when you counted a 7 as a stop to a role, when it was after a point made. .. This changes payouts.
I’ve been tracking on my table for the last four years. At best , I’ve been up $2000. At worst down $9000. 4+:1 Win/ loss ratio is too high for me. Thanx for video.
I'm curious to know what types of patterns you were tracking? If you're ever interested, I have a craps cheat at my site at www.dicecounting.com This cheat sheet shows hundreds of patterns that has won over 150,000 live rolls. I've back tested all regular bets on the layout with these rolls and the house edge holds up. I even discovered how terrible some odds actually are for the player. The patterns within my cheat sheet are bets that you won't find on a standard craps layout. Like a FIRE bet or ALL SMALL or ALL TALL or NOTHING AT ALL bet my patterns require multiple events before betting. Timing is everything. I'll give you an example that you can try on your own. I analyzed the 777 pattern. That means 3 consecutive 7s rolled. According to my historical data, the best play immediately after seeing three 7s is to wait until the result of the 10th rol,l then wait for that 10th roll to result in 3 wins. After the 3rd win, execute a Don't Pass or Don't come bet. Allow for 3 possible losses. This style of play and bet execution over 150,000 rolls have resulted in 84 wins and 6 losses making it a 93% winning bet. A players bet without a house edge. Try it next time and tell me the results. If you find yourself winning more than losing with this betting strategy, you will understand the power of tracking patterns. Good Luck and thanks for checking out my videos!
so why don't you have any videos showing at the casino would love to see a live casino video
love it
In that you are only at the table for about 100-120 rolls The chart does not work ( one 7 every 6 rolls) It will work out over 125K rolls BUT BUT that is days at the table. You MUST chart the table and see if numbers are being rolled or is the shooter sevening out. Follow the table and take down you place bets down so you will not have a lot of money when the seven is rolled. REMEMBER the longest roll in history was only 147 rolls in four hours by a women in A.C. How many games have been played in the last 100 years to get a roll of 147 ( Millions of games have been played) P.S. The problem with people that just do "Math" spend too much time rolling the dice and never play and never know the real way on how to win. Get in and get out and WIN $$$$
You my brother from a different mother😄
No one stays at the tables for 10 hours at a time. The longest roll in history ( IN HISTORY) was only 147 rolls in a little over four hours. There is a way to track the pattern at a table for 100-150 rolls but it takes too long to explain on this page. I live and teach craps in Vegas and you have to give the player a way to win at the tables. ( Your going to lay the 4 & 10 after it rolls 6 or 7 times? ) The average game only lasts 3-5 rolls. Good luck at the tables Garrison.
Garrison you're right. There is a way to track rolls but it is definitely too long to explain in words without losing most people in translation. Most of my videos are an introduction to my concepts. There are patterns that I've found that can appear within minutes of playing. Please don't misinterpret all my years of research into these patterns by thinking the ONLY pattern I have found is laying against a 4 or 10 after it shows 6 times. That particular pattern is the tip of the iceberg. I know of over 200 patterns.
Ronald Graham There is no way to identify a "PATTERN" until after it has occurred.
Could you pack a little bit more disinformation in a comment? The world record is 154 rolls, not the 147 you mention. And that's really narrowing it down on the length of the average game - 3 to 5 rolls, lol. Why not say 2 to 100 and be done with it?
Easy to figure probability of 9 instances of a certain number as 2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2. What I have noticed is that a seven out will follow a seven out after anomalies exceeding expected probabilities, (a hot roll). I'll be testing this at the casino tomorrow with this strategy: bet don't pass after a long roll has sevened out, continue to bet don't pass until a pass, then wait for the next 7 out before betting don't pass. Wish me luck and I will report back.
I’m working on my self proclaimed genius strategy. The DC game helps a little bit but it’s not full proof. It’s all about cracking the code. I win. But not enough.
@GeminEye Please visit my site when you get the chance.
www.dicecounting.com
If you believe like I do that there are patterns that offer a higher win % than what's offered by the house, I invite you to check out my craps cheat sheet. I analyzed all of the 150,000 rolls and extracted 100s of patterns that offer a players edge according to my historical data.
www.dicecounting.com/product-page/craps-pattern-cheat-sheet
The thing that fuels my desire to continuously search for new patterns is the fact that my data confirms what is already known about the house edge. If you played craps the standard way and with the bets on the layout, you WILL lose after playing with the live results of my 150,000 rolls. My patterns are not listed on any craps layout. You're not going to find a bet that says "6 consecutive NON-FIELD rolls/ 18th roll." Betting with patterns are perfectly timed bets and according to my historical data, they are bets that create an edge for the player. Thanks for watching my videos and your interest in Dice counting. Good luck at the tables! #dicecounting #crapsstrategy
Your lucky IF you see the ten rolled 3 to 4 times. You will be at the table for months before to see a 4 or 10 rolled 8 times. AFTER two to three times it hit come through the DC or lay it and TAKE a hard way 4 or ten. How you can only lose with an easy 4 or 10. You need to hedge those numbers.
Over 150,000 rolls, seeing a 4 or 10 show up 3 times before a 7 out has happened around 620 times. Since on average a roll happens about every minute, 150,000 rolls equals approximately 2500 hours at the table. So if my math is correct, you might see this occurrence once every 4 hours. The 4 and or 10 rolling 8 times before a 7 out has happened 11 times in 2500 hours. So I'm thinking if you stayed at a craps table for 10 straight days, you might see this once. haha
Do casinos let you record every roll?
Yes BUT you can't be a hinderance to the game or other players otherwise the management WILL tell you to stop. I've been doing it for years and developed ways to be discreet. The casinos I go to have been really nice to me too because they know me as the Dice Counter and they sometimes call my paper the Holy Grail. Haha
Casinos dont care as long as you dont hold up the game. Why? Because it is pointless. Every roll is random. Past rolls mean NOTHING
People! If you're going to pay the commission, get the most mileage out of it. Buy the 4 or 10 for $39 and toss the dealer $40. It's the most bang you'll get for a buck at a Craps table and you might even get paid, but I doubt it. They only hit when you're standing behind the table, watching, with empty pockets and rent that is overdue! lol Across the clouds I see my shadow fly.
Ronald Graham There is no way to identify a "PATTERN" until after it has occurred
You are wrong I developed a dice counting system in 2003...spent 100k and it works... If you are will to bet at-least 40k I will share it with you where you can predict the patterns ahead of time...If I teach you you cant teach anyone else and you would have to sign an NDA... With dice counting you can easily make 500-15000 a day with a 90-99 percent certainty...
Load up on some drinks, throw a few hundred bucks and your players card on the table, ask all the shooters who wants to have some fun. Whoever answers you roll with that person! Don't over think! Go with the vibe of the shooter!
Anthony there is something very profound about your comment. I know where you're coming from.
The vibe is right. I call it my spiritual connection. I've had spiritual insight to know when certain numbers are going to come out. Sometimes strong, sometimes weak. Same thing in sports betting. Others may mock it, and others know it for a fact.
I can't deny mine.
I have had spiritual insight too. When I tried to force it to happen I lost $5000 on an NFL game. Meditation seems to work, but also at times the spiritual insight comes upon me without asking. I knew 1 week ahead of time the Eagles would beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl. The strong energy of the Eagles came upon my left shoulder and would not leave.
@@MrThreewarriors - Well, I just had a 'spiritual revelation' that you should put everything you own on the Rams tomorrow. It is a certain double up of your bankroll.
Then the shooter turns out to be a hot babe and she tosses you her room number.
time after 2 yrs i my be half way there ..........
You are going to wait a very long time before you see six 4's or 10's in a series of rolls without a 7 in there somewhere. You'd be better off watching someone make the 4 or 10 at 2 consecutive different tables(or 1 table twice) THEN bet against the 3rd, 4 or 10 that was the point. If a 4 or 10 was made the 3rd time!!!< that means you have seen SIX 4's or 10's made in a large set of numbers(more than likely a large set) on 2 or possibly 3 different tables! Sure it could happen but I would probably win at least 80% of those set ups, but still that scenario would take a very long time to manifest itself in all likelihood. Having 2 or 3 tables, assuming you could get in of course, would certainly increase the chance of a very random event in my opinion.
Yeah, like that's going to make any difference! lol You sound like an ignorant moron.
I think the 4 / 10 lay bet strategy @ 6th occurrence is too conservative. I think the better option is to start a lay after you have seen 4 or 10 rolled twice, before a 7. Then use a 3x lay strategy when the occurrence goes up one. For instance, 2 4s - Lay 40 + Vig > 3 4s - Lay 120 + Vig > 4 4s - Lay 360 + Vig > 5 4s - Lay 1080 + Vig. Anything IMO over 6th occurrence is extremely rare, as you can see per your data. If we look at 4s, and we are only betting on qty row 2+, total events 2297. Out of those events, 2269 of them we will win. 98.78%. Let me know if you have any questions. ;)
Hi Robb, here's some updated stats about the 4s and 10s. I am now at 151,260 rolls and there have been a total of 12441 fours and 12739 tens.
There were also 25150 sevens.
You stated that it would make sense to use Lay after the 4/10 shows up TWICE and give yourself 4 chances to win.
After 2nd 4/10 ----->Lay 40
If loss 3rd 4/10 ----->Lay 120
If loss 4th 4/10 -----> Lay 360
If loss 5th 4/10 ------> Lay 1080
Stop---------------If 6 or more 4/10 rolls before 7 then you are down $1640 ($1600 +$40 in Vig)
Let's plug that in to my real life roll data and see if there is a profit or loss at the end.
1st your Lay bet amounts does not return a profit because by the time you lay $1080 you are already down by $533 (40+120+360=520 +$13 Vig)
If you Lay 1080 your Big will be $27. Your win on a $1080 Lay is $540 MINUS a $27 Vig leaves you with $513. $513 minus what you've already lost ($533) is -20.
You have to adjust your bets to ALWAYS win.
So if we plug in winning Lay bets on each level, it will look like this:
1st Level = Lay $41 to win $19------(Vig=$1 included)
If Loss then you are DOWN -41
2nd Level = Lay $153 to win $31----(Vig=$3 included)
If Loss then you are down -194
3rd Level = Lay $459 to Win $22 ---(Vig=$9 included)
If Loss then you are down -653
4th Level = Lay $1428 to win $19 ---(Vig=$28 included)
If loss then you are down $2081---->STOP chasing! Start over at next occurence
Now let's plug these numbers into the actual data and see if there's a profit with your 4 tier progressive Lay betting system starting after TWO 4s or 10s are rolled before a 7 out.
Total 1st level wins (After 4 or 10 rolls TWICE and you execute a LAY bet) = 3,741 wins. 3,741 x $19 =$71,079
Total 2nd level wins (After 4 or 10 rolls THREE times and you execute a LAY bet after 1st level Loss) = 1,280 wins. 1,280 x $31 =$39,680
Total 3rd level wins (After 4 or 10 rolls FOUR times and you execute a LAY bet after 2nd level Loss) = 390 wins. 390 x $22 =$8,580
Total 4th level wins (After 4 or 10 rolls FIVE times and you execute a LAY bet) = 146 wins. 146 x $19 =$2774
So all combined wins $71,079+$39,680+$8,580+$2774=$122,113
All losses = 70. 70 times you would have lost $2081 for a TOTAL LOSS of $145,670
$145,670 - $122,113 = $23,557
As you can see, when your strategy is tested against 151,260 live rolls, the end result is - $23,557
I know waiting for six 4s or 10s is boring and rare.
Out of 151,260 rolls, 6 or more 4s or 10s occurred a total of 70 times. It takes approximately 2500 hours to roll 151,260 rolls. That means a high output of 4s or 10s should happen every 35 hours or so.
If you have the patience to wait for the 6th 4 or 10 to roll and execute a 3x Lay Betting strategy, your results would have been positive according to my historical data.
Thanks for your interest in my work.
visit www.dicecounting.com and order my pattern calculator and cheat sheet. It will help you find many patterns that improve your chances of winning.
Ronald Graham Well played. My math was off a bit but you understood my gist with the 3x lay bet. Now if we think about this even further, Every 35 hours you will see a run up of 4s / 10s per the data. How do we incorporate time “playing” into the data? As you would not be playing around the clock. So if this small instance happens once every 35 hours and you play for only 4 hours a week, how can we factor that in? What are the odds that this scenario happens in the 4 hours we play per week?
Completely agree though that the better play would be 6th + occurrences. It’s just time spent waiting on that scenario would not equal the appropriate gain. But... since you are playing multiple strategies all at the same time, that have fantastic probability rates based on real data, then it’s just another tool to add to your bag. Now for someone who can only handle employing a couple strategies at a time, I think that my original post may be a favorable one to go with. I always go back to the basic principle of a roll being an independent event and rolling a 4 or 10 = 1/12 and 7 = 1/6.
Hardly any player will wait 35 hours for any specific event to happen at a craps table. The longest time I've ever logged is 15 straight hours. Never again! haha
Here's a good reason to know great winning patterns:
If craps is your game of choice, it's safe to say that over the next 5 years, you will play craps for at least 100 hours. Personally I will most likely play 100 hours within the next 6 months. 100 hours = approximately 6000 rolls. Currently you probably employ some money saving betting strategies such as avoiding betting the Horn Bets or FIELD because you know the odds aren't as good as betting Pass Line Odds or Place Bets. You probably already know that throughout your entire experience of playing craps so far, you've saved money by making sound bets. Now with that same logic, and keeping the goal of bank preservation in mind coupled with the 100s of hours you WILL eventually play, wouldn't it make sense to avoid a bet that we have already determined can have a negative outcome?
As far as each roll being an independent event, I cannot agree with you there.
Without concrete scientific evidence, and just my observation, I feel like probability is like a magnetic force always seeking equilibrium. Equilibrium when associated with dice means that no matter how you throw the dice, 7s will always be prevalent. Because this distribution of results ALWAYS holds true over large groups of dice roll result data, MANY other patterns follow rules within the matrix of numbers associated with dice rolls. This ultimately means that the performance of previous rolls affects future rolls.
The player is at a table about 2 hours or 100 rolls. Anything can happen in just 100 rolls so you have to take your bets down after 1 or 2 hits. NO ONE will be at a table for 125,000 rolls. TEST any l 36 rolls and you will never have a break down of 1/2 or 12 2/3 or 11 etc. You will get CLUSTER numbers and numbers that repeat that is why the 36 number chart never works.
When I track and record rolls, I never stay for just 2 hours. In fact the last time I played for 10 hours within 24 hours. Basically two 5 hour sessions. It doesn't make sense to me to stay for such a short period of time. There are cycles/patterns that occur anywhere from minutes to 8 hour intervals. I also track patterns that I've filtered out of the 125,000 rolls so one of those patterns can happen within two minutes of approaching the table. I'm not sure where you're getting at because I never indicated anywhere in any of my videos that staying at a table for 100 rolls is the wining formula and neither is the impossibility of staying for 125,000 rolls.
I've watched enough craps rolls to know there is a pattern in the dice, but I've also noticed the pattern changes on you, and that is the real difficult part of knowing what to do.
This is true. I've noticed hundreds of times when I would see a pattern repeat itself for 5 hours and the INSTANT I place a bet to capitalize on something I've seen for so long, the pattern shifts. If this had happened just a few times I would call it an isolated event and go on about my day but it happens literally every time I gamble. It's as if the outcome of the dice roll is reacting to my decision. I honestly have no explanation for that and it has led me down the road of both skepticism and mysticism. At the end of the day, it is still a statistical game and I have found over 300 patterns that stay in line with the laws of averages. I tend to play those patterns more often because they are grounded in math. Betting on patterns however has proven to be a tricky task thanks to the dice seeming to be alive and rebellious. Lol
Yep, Schrodinger's Cat Syndrome going on for sure. There is one pattern I love to see. I call it the Horn and 7, because that's literally about all that comes up. I mean, every other roll is a Horn #, when statistically they aren't supposed to come up that often. That's when I basically bet the horn and cover with a field and 6/8 bet. You can usually see these #'s cluster around the come out roll, so I bet Horn on those first 3 rolls and usually get a hit on 1 out of 3 and break even if it doesn't hit with my cover bets. At 15 or 30 to 1, you can make some money fast, if you're hitting consistently.
Interesting. Whenever I'm done editing my next video, I will plug that into my pattern finder and see what the results are. My approach is to see how the numbers are flowing for about 5 hours. you'd be surprised at what you can learn about a table in 5 hours of observing. The last time I gambled, I realized after 5 hours that the 5s never rolled more than 3 times in a series. A series is all rolls up until and including a 7. For example, lets just say the last shooter 7 out, then new shooter rolls 4-->6-->5-->2-->9-->9-->4-->3-->8-->5-->8-->5-->7 . The series is from 4 until 7. In the above series example, the 5 peaked at 3 times within the series of rolls. Imagine this scenario happening for 5 hours.
Excellent! And to add my own research, the 5 is a dog with fleas bet. It hardly every comes up consistently. The 9 comes up way more often. I do not bet the 5 anymore, which is why it is not part of my field, 6 and 8 strategy with the Horn and 7 pattern.
Here is a pattern I have noticed over the DECADES: if I'm standing, watching a table without betting, numbers fly out the ass. If my money is on the table, the results tend to be the opposite of whatever I'm betting. Not always, of course, just enough for the house to make its profit and keep me thinking I'll get them next time.
Four 7's in a row, no matter when...just in a row should occur 1 time in 1296 rolls.
Another falacy! You just won't quit, will you? Very good that you were somehow able to raise 6 to the 4th power, however, it's 1296 starts, not 1296 rolls.
I just checked over my data and specifically, the (non seven roll) 7777 (Non seven roll) pattern has occurred 85 times in 151,260 rolls. Real life results are slightly different from your results because this is showing 1 time in 1779. Another thing I have observed is how that same pattern can occur within 300 rolls of each other. I've been looking for explanations and trying to understand these anomalous fluctuations. I've realized that it is easier to place an equation on an event without fully understanding its cause.
A possible flaw is that in a casino you'd have many different shooters, table lengths etc that will effect randomness, but still, I do use dice tracking with any system and is a must to consistently win.
So let me get this straight....you are saying to wait until anywhere from 6 to 8 times a 4 or 10 is rolled, then lay that number in a negative progression manner because you never saw it go more than 8 times? You rolled 125,000 times to come up with 3 times that this has happened.....let's even be conservative and say this is going to happen 10 times in that same span. Let's calculate, a live dice game, the dice move at a rate of 1 roll per 45 seconds....if no one is betting, it could move faster, but you still have the 7-out player change and cleanup phases, so to give benefit of the doubt, we'll say that you are playing by yourself and allowed to shoot the dice without ever making a bet until you want to.....because I want to give you all the advantage to your system you can have. So you will throw the dice at 1 roll per 10 seconds on average. That's 1,250,000 seconds, or roughly 14.5 days straight to have 10 opportunities of this specific scenario.....so an average of 1 day and 11 hours.
That is basing it on giving you all of the latitude possible.....and you're making around $20 each time.
I applaud your ability to see the pattern....but you could have just asked any good dice dealer and we would have told you exactly the same thing you spent hours coming up with. We've seen it firsthand how often certain things happen, sometimes we even make fake bets in secret between us because we play craps better than the players do.
You want a better method? Fire bet or all-tall-small bets.....they say side bets are for suckers, but all bets are really, at least you can throw a few bucks on those bets and just wait around drinking. The trick is:
Fire bet - when you hit the third number, you can start hedging against the numbers required to place the numbers already played for maximum profits....and the payout will pay your losses. For example ($5 fire bet), let's say that the 6, 8, and 9 are already hit and done, leaving 4, 5, and 10.
41 no 4, 41 no 10, 46 no 5, 10 don't pass, 1 yo, 1 twelve, 15 place 9, 18 place 6 and 8 working. 6/8/9 hit, make money, take everything down except the $10 don't, repeat when point is done or 7 out. 7 rolls, make $4, stay up on everything. 4/10 rolls, take everything down, lay $66 with your $10 don't. 5 rolls, take everything down, lay $60 with your $10 don't. 2/3 rolls, make $8, 11 rolls, make $4, 12 rolls make $29. Mostly anything else is a wash towards the next roll. I have an entire chart on this bet specifically.
ATS bet - if you wait until the 2 and 3 rolls, then have 41 no 4, 31 no 5, 25 no 6, placing the 8/9/10 for $32 action, half pressing those bets until you hit table max. 11 and 12 rolls, do the opposite direction. If any lay comes down, you and re-orient your wins to cover that number on the place side. This assumes a minimum of $4 on the small and tall bets. If 2/3/11/12 all hit, and you have at least $2 on the 'all' bet, you can hedge the entire line.
These happen far more often than you waiting for 8 rolls of 10 to happen.......ATS happens an average of 6 times in 8 hour shift.
"You rolled 125,000 times to come up with 3 times that this has happened." There is no part in my video where I state that I rolled 125,000 times to come up with any betting scenario that only happens 3 times. Sorry Robert, you lost me there. And then you said, "you could have just asked any good dice dealer and we would have told you exactly the same thing you spent hours coming up with." Yeah you definitely lost me after that and I don't feel like I have to dignify that with a response. But I'm happy you found a forum to display your betting strategy.
It states in not only your description, but in the video that you rolled 125,000 times and calculated the results. Out of those results, on your spreadsheet, you show "3" near the eighth line of the 4/10 rolling consecutive within a 7-out to 7-out stretch.....this means that you had 3 opportunities within 125,000 rolls for your strategy.
Not sure how you got lost, it's your data that you presented......I'm only feeding it back to you. By the way, you get similar results if you use a number generator on computers, yes it's pseudo-random, but the same data applies because number theory on big sets washes out any inconsistencies.
If you need to test something out, let me know, I'll program it myself and within minutes tell you if your strategy works......and that's over a million rolls.
I play the 4 and 10 and getting more than 3 hits before 7 is very rare in a two hour gambling session. You'll be lucky to see it happen once for either number.
@@sabriath I got a pattern for you to test. Would appreciate your validation on this.
I analyzed the pattern of 6 NON FIELD #s. Just to be clear, NON FIELD rolls are all 5s, 6s, 7s, and 8s. Any combination of these numbers for 6 consecutive rolls.
Here are the results
Out of 150,000 live rolls, the "6 Consecutive NON FIELD rolls pattern" showed up 1954 times. I did a study on the 25 Win/Loss results from the Pass Line and Don't Pass line and after the pattern. In other words, I looked at every roll after the pattern and found out what was most likely to happen (Win or Loss) after this pattern. Turns out, if you waited 10 rolls AFTER this pattern and before the 11th roll, you executed a Don't pass or Don't Come Bet, there's a 90% chance you will win if utilizing a 3 level progressive betting strategy. Basically giving yourself 3 chances to win. This particular betting strategy resulted in 1689 wins and 192 losses. Multiply 1689 by 5 and you get a profit of $8445. That's your approximate win total (not adjusted for losses of wins when 12 rolls). Now multiply 192 by $37 and you get $7104. That's what you would have lost after 150,000 rolls according to my historical Data. Your profit at the end on this betting strategy is approximately $1341 ($8445 - $7104). Since there is a profit at the end of 150,000 rolls, that makes this bet worthwhile for the player.
These figures are calculated at a $5 table.
The betting structure would involve placing your initial bet of $5 on the Don't Pass or Don't Come.
If you lose, put $1 on the (12) and $10 on the Don't Pass/Don't Come Line.
If you lose again, put another $1 on the (12) and $20 on the Don't Pass/Don't Come line.
If you lose again, accept loss (-$37) and wait for pattern to show again.
This betting strategy also works on the 18th roll. Meaning, after the 17th roll, execute a Don't Pass/Don't Come bet before the 18th come out roll. Repeat the steps of the betting strategy above.
Now there is a pattern for you to bet the Pass Line/Come bet as well. After the 7th roll, wait for the 8th roll result. Now you have to track that roll until that 8th roll results in 3 losses. So for instance, if the 8th roll is a 4, wait for that four to 7 out. (That's loss #1) then the next roll is a 3 (Loss #2) then the next sequence of rolls is a 6 --> 5-->7 (Loss #3) After this 3rd Loss, execute a Pass Line or Come Bet and give yourself 3 chances to win.
You can also wait until the 14th roll and then observe the result of the 15th roll. After that 15th roll loses 4 times, execute a Pass Line or Come bet and allow for 3 possible losses.
If you have any success with this pattern and want to order hundreds of other patterns similar to this, you can visit my site at
www.dicecounting.com/product-page/craps-pattern-cheat-sheet
There you can purchase a cheat sheet I designed to help you identify high percentage winning patterns while playing.
If you have more patterns in mind and would like to use my live rolls data to test your theories, you can also purchase a pattern finder I created that searches through the entire database of rolls and returns a list of every location of the pattern you are searching for. Included is all of the roll data arranged by shooters so you can also find shooter patterns. That link is www.dicecounting.com/product-page/pattern-finding-program
FYI My data confirms what is already known about the house edge. If you played craps the standard way and with the bets on the layout, you WILL lose after playing with my 150,000 live rolls.
@@Dicecounter ... you are betting on a pattern within known data, using your strategy on a million rolls results in a loss at standard rates. The only difference is that your overall loss compared to the million rolls makes it seem like you've lost little in ratio, but that's only because you are betting less than 3% of the time (so out of 1 million rolls, you are only live betting less than 30,000 of them).
On a normal night of craps, with a steady table and dice being rolled 40 times an hour average, you're looking to bet on one, on average.
With your convoluted 10th roll don't pass 6th non-field weird setup, that's even worse....you will spend 16 hours in a casino and might make all of 3 bets. A "$37 possible loss" for a $5 win doesn't sound like fun to me, or productive.....and honestly, the odds are still against you because that also loses to a million rolls.
Sorry
You apparently dont understand the concept of RANDOMNESS
Let him dream, Wolfie, it's his life's ambition.
I admit, I don't have a degree in statistics and some of my terminology might be off. I understand how ignorant some people can sound when they are uninformed. So unless you have spent 1000s of hours dealing AND playing craps, 1000s more hours analyzing and collecting DATA, spent 1000s of dollars creating programs to run tests so that you can confidently speak about the results of your work, I'm really not too interested in your one liners. Everything that I say is a factual report on my independent research of dice rolls. If that offends you, oh well. I can live with that.
It's sad watching gamblers delude themselves about probability; a very well understood branch of mathematics which Casino owners understand and utilise to bilk Bajillions of dollars out of suckers. He starts by saying that he'll start betting when he sees 6 rolls of 4 in a series. What he doesn't mention is that if you go back and look at his graph, that only happened 16 times over a 10 year period that included 125,000 rolls. So ... in other words you could sit there for years before that ever happened. It might NEVER happen! However the sad thing is that if and when it did eventually happen, there is every chance that you would end up with 10 rolls of 4 in the series and you end up losing your money anyway. It's nice to think that just because he never saw more than 8 rolls of 4 in a series that it will never happen but it WILL HAPPEN. Every time you roll the dice the odds of each combination appearing DO NOT CHANGE. Let me give you a warning; if you ever find yourself thinking that there will never be 10 rolls of 4 in a series, or 12 Reds in a row at the Roulette table, or 5 Black Jacks in a row for the dealer - or whatever - then you are DELUDING yourself and you are going to lose money. There is no guaranteed way to win money at Craps, or Blackjack, or Roulette. Let me repeat that: THERE IS NO GUARANTEED WAY TO WIN MONEY AT CRAPS, OR BLACKJACK, OR ROULETTE. If someone tells you there is then they are either lying to you or don't know what they're talking about. If you gamble you will lose. The ONLY thing you can achieve with these types of strategies is losing the minimum amount of money BUT YOU WILL ALWAYS LOSE IN THE END. Please ... PLEASE ... do not delude yourself that there is some hidden secret to probability that isn't known and wil ensure you win money.
IT. DOES. NOT. EXIST!
Thanks for your input! Well what can I say after this? First, I appreciate you watching my video, next I acknowledge everyone's right to an opinion lastly no offense but I really don't care about your spirited efforts to discredit my research. I set out to prove a point to myself because sometimes in this world you can't totally rely on the findings of experts. When money is involved, people's agenda change as history shows again and again. I'm proud to say that after your comments, and ESPECIALLY YOUR WORDS IN CAPS my research continues. Oh yeah, and when that 4 or 10 finally rolls more than 8 times within a series of rolls, which I know with great certainty that it WILL, I will be posting a video of that historic event too. And for the record, I've been going out of my way to make it known that I am recording rolls, observing patterns and sharing findings. NOT claiming to have a method to beat the house. What works throughout one session does not always work in another. That's the nature of trends and that is what I've been exploring.
Attract more about dice roll Plum. That's it I don't see how you are trying to sell something that's ridiculous
Sorry, I can’t buy it. You can’t predict the future by anything thing that happens in the past. The only way to beat Craps is if you can get partial control of the physical element of rolling the dice. I do believe you can gain a mathematical advantage by reducing the odds of the 7 to show. But you must make the lowest house advantage bets. Pass and Come with maximum odds and maybe placing on.y 6 and 8. If you are going to play random Craps, you may as well use your system if it’s fun for you. But you will lose at exactly the same rate as everyone else. Your loss rate is the amount you bet times the house advantage. If you bet hard ways, horn CE, place 4, 5, 9, and 10, or play the field, especially where 12 plays on.y double, you will loss faster because these bets have a higher house advantage. Your best bet is the. Don’t pass or don’t come laying maximum odds.
You keep driving and talking to a camera your going to take time from your life or for that matter other normal people driving to work.
Just sayin!
I would never put anyone in danger for my little video production. Great of you to point that out. Says a lot about your good character. This was a stretch of road in the mountain at a time of day when traffic was minimal. I also had eyes looking out for me.