Kentucky Derby 2024 Pace Analysis
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 12 มิ.ย. 2024
- #kentuckyderby2024
Kentucky Derby 2024 Pace Analysis of the top contenders. We look at the top contenders' Early Pace and Late Pace rankings. Fierceness has a fast early pace, and Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom have a fast late pace.
00:00 Introduction
00:51 Kentucky Derby 2024 Pace Analysis
01:31 Early Pace 2024 Contenders
02:12 Early Pace 2024 Kentucky Derby Prep Races
03:10 Early Pace Leaders 2024 Kentucky Derby
04:31 Late Pace Definition
05:21 Late Pace Figures 2024 Prep races
📗Subscribe to the Triple Crown Prospectus 2024 🏇🌹
derbyologist-1689.ck.page
2024 Saturday Racing Notebook - 📝 -Kentucky Derby Preakness and Belmont Picks - Get on the list! 📒
derbyologist-1689.ck.page/202...
☕ If you found this content useful and would like to support the channel, you can buy me a coffee:
www.buymeacoffee.com/Derbyolo...
Email Questions and Show Ideas to: 📝
scrimshaw@integraonline.com
✍Sponsorship/Media Inquiries:
scrimshaw@integraonline.com
Connect with me:
Twitter: @derbyologist - กีฬา
![จังหวะนี้ - เม้ก อภิสิทธิ์ [ Official MV ] จอนนี่มิวสิค](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/4gQRZCkRyiU/mqdefault.jpg)
great info here. really great summary, I do wonder if the 2nd place horse in each race is also interesting to line up and compare, more of a race shape for the two horses that ran well to get a placing.
Hi guy , I’m glad to see you this morning and I’m ready to get started on your news update. Blessings to all.Elaine Acosta
Elaine, I'm here only on days that end with Y 😉
Thank you Craig xoxo love the show cant wait bombs away the coach is in it
Thanks buddy 😊
20/20 hindsight thanks buddy
Thanks for the great information.
Watch you faithfully,Great content,Lot of info
Thank for information
Track Phantom will be in front chase by Fierceness and Dornoch then Just steel,Just A touch,Mystik Dan will be challenges at the three furlong pole.
The Blue Grass pace figure was not 101, that was the pace fig for Sierra Leone...The actual pace fig for the race was 114
BRIS Early and Late Pace numbers are NOT the numbers of the *leader* of the race - they are the number of the *individual horse* you are looking at. To prove my point, look at the PP’s of 2 horses that were in the same race. If the EP & LP pertained to the *leader* of the race, those numbers would be identical. But they aren’t! And that’s because the numbers pertain to the *individual horse* you’re looking at.
From Brisnet’s explanation on how to read their PP’s:
Bris Pace and Speed Ratings:
a) E1 is a pace rating that measures how fast the horse ran from the start to the first call of the race. ( 2f Pace in sprints, 4f Pace in routes).
b) E2 is a pace rating that measures how fast the horse ran from the start to the second call of the race. (4f Pace in sprints, 6f Pace in most routes). c) LP is a pace rating that measures how fast the horse ran from the second call of the race to the finish. d) SPD is the Speed Rating and measures how fast the horse ran the race from start to finish.
Just wanted to clear this up because the way I understood you explaining the LP number at the 1:25 mark suggested otherwise.
This is very helpful. I was looking at Capturing Freedom as a "closer" because he has run races closing. But after listening to his trainer Brad Cox talking about him, it sounds like he is a flexible, complicated horse who can adapt to different pace scenarios. (For one thing, he had to close in some races because he had bad starts, and then we saw him catching up and going horribly wide but still winning. However, Mr. Cox says he can run from inside horses as well as outside.). I think he has a good a chance to win as the other three top rated horses. In any case, it will be interesting to see how he fits in the pace.
I'd say we're looking at a pace of a 99. You can draw your own conclusions from that. Don't leave Mystik Dan, Reslience, Catching Freedom, Stronghold and Honor Marie off your exotics. Forever Young is intriguing if he gets a clean trip. I envision Just a Touch engaging Fiereceness and putting him away nearing the eighth pole then that's about when the closers who can negotiate traffic capitalize. Sierra Leone looks solid in that regard. Just a Touch is in the top five I just don't know if he'll have enough left for the win or place. Key there if he can relax in the earlier stages, rate and have enough kick as they turn for home. Good fortunes to all!
Good evening to you this is great content that you're doing I appreciate it thank you very much for it. I think if you let fierceness run by himself on alone uncontested lead you might as well go to the the cashier and cashing your ticket so I think the pace will be a lot faster than what you think is going to be. Because if you let fierces go by himself then he'll win this race going away on talent alone provided he gets out of the gate decently.
I’m suspect of a couple of the numbers. The Fierceness figures from the Florida Derby are tough because the competition just wasn’t there. The race could have been a breeze, he was running by himself. In the Bluegrass, Just A Touch visually looked like he was absolutely gassed. That race had the appearance to me of some really tired horses, with Sierra Leone just being the least tired. I’m leaning towards horses that looked to me like they had gas in the tank at the end like Stronghold and Resilience.
I agree with Just a Touch he looked gassed at end of Blue Grass. But he did chase an extremely fast pace according to Brisnet. I need to see Timeform Pace rating for that race.
People have opinions, but HORSES 🐎 have the FACTS!E.A.
How can the pace figure at 6 furlongs - 2/3 of the way through the 9 furlong final preps - be considered "early" pace?
I suppose that what makes the derby great ...is the number of quality horses..jockeys..and trainers..let's hope for a safe and healthy race...Untainted..in any way.
I appreciate you pointing out that some horses (Just Steel) have shown fast early pace and also fast late pace. Did you mean, in the same races, or in different races, or both? i heard Lucas saying, "we had to get after him" (Just Steel). I guess he was saying, we had to make him pick up his late pace? I found this horse disappointing his whole career -- it always looked like he had the potential to win a lot more races than he did. Maybe now they have got him working harder in the second half of the race?!
Just Steel has shown speed early in some races and good late pace ratings in others. His Arkansas Derby he showed both a good EP and good LP.
Yes, I thought he looked good this year, compared to last. He is in Louisville already, so he may be posting workouts there. He is really a beautiful horse, but looked too tense and serious when they unloaded him at Churchhill Downs.
The Derby is probly the worst betting race. All this about pace sounds great, but I’m reminded of the Mike Tyson quote “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”. Am I to take Fierceness and hope he has perfect trip to front unchallenged and gets to set his own pace? Nah. Half field wiped out by traffic issues. Going with horses who have best trainers and jockeys with Derby Pedigree who offer best value, it’s always best way to go.
I had the triafecta last year it was a great race Verifying set a good pace I had Two Phil's too win should have really won the race with the ride he got..I am leaning to a Justify horse in Just Steel he was four wide in his last race the entire way a better trip and he wins