this is the kind of thing that happens when the entire US economy is based on increasingly esoteric financial products that have no particular relationship to reality
I agree. Sometimes, "If you build it... " nobody came. And all the kings horses, and all the kings men can't put all that money wasted on "studies" and "reports" back into the bank again. I mean, they did decide on all these things after serious consideration? Some scientific/analytical trials, right? Proof of viability? Anything to indicate success beyond, "It's good for the (___________________)," insert cause here? China does it most grandly, just to be clear. But we all seem to do it, globally. (That's besides all the other nonsense.)
You dont understand our economy, think Rome and think of all the rest of the countries as tributary states. Our dollar and military is what we sell to the world wether they want it or not
The only surprise is what took them so long. China is the world's largest importer and the world's largest exporter. An example would be their ro-ro ships. Because they've recently become the world's largest exporter of cars they're building a bunch of ships to carry them and wharves to load them. Cosco has ordered 24 new ships for this and they'll be built by the end of this year. No other country would come even remotely close to those timelines and all those EVs would end up sitting around in China. Chinese shipbuilding is demand driven and Chinese shipyards are the only ones that can meet the demand.
China used to make most of the world’s toys and cloth, but wages in those sectors can never make it developed country. China just shifted to high end manufacturing, leaving cloth and other low end job to other countries
@@stc2828 Yup, China leaves those low end manufacturing products like cloth, jeans, shoes, hardware tools like ⚒️ hammer and other low end jobs to countries like Bangladesh, India, Vietnam and so on.
It's interesting how we kept hearing about the Chinese real estate implosion, when it was a coordinated action by the Chinese government to move workers and capital to sectors that it deemed more strategically important - like technology and shipbuilding. It's not possible to increase that much production that fast without centralized planning for years. (yes, that's a dirty word, but the shipbuilding supply chain doesn't just develop willy nilly).
If you just look at the quality of ships they are building it becomes apparent that they are world leaders not only in manufacturing capacity but also in innovative technology. The world’s first nuclear powered container ship running on an innovative Thorium reactor was announced few months back! Even BYD a battery and EV company has its own RORO ships running on LNG! And the first battery powered container ship has been launched!
@@ozymandias7592 even the modern ones? Their modern vessels are actually decent, though Chinese reputation on manufacturing has always known to put more focus on scale than quality.
Ya guys even know how shipbuilding works? LoL. All those Architectural drawings, are drawn up as per CUSTOMERS request. Each are then scrutinised by Independent IACS for approval. As the shipbuild in progress IACS surveyors and Owners Superintendent are always present, monitoring to sign off the builds. Main Engine and its Auxiliaries machinery are perogative of OWNERS decisions. Its maintenance are of ship crew responsibility. Ya ever heard of naval incidents that blames the ShipYard building it ? 😂😂.
@@ozymandias7592 I have sailed on Chinese ships designed in 2005 delivered in 2009 and then years later in ones designed in 2013 delivered in 2018, they were a world apart! And now with the latest manufacturing processes and technologies and expanded shipyards, the newer ships are world class! That is why they are getting such orders.
i have recently visited a Geely production plant (Geely is the owner of volvo and biggest single share holder of Mercedes), it was a complete lights off operation. it was especially terrifying when i just walked in before the light was turned on, i saw sea of tiny red lights rapidly moving around in the dark. there are so few people on the production line i think labor cost is irrelevant. i only saw people at end of the production line doing inspections, and a few people here there putting some interior trims. it was the most automated production line i have ever seen. Even tesla lines had more people
That light-off factory is a classic scenario of Industry 4.0 or MIC 2025, it is very common in factories of tech giants in China. The idea was initiated by Germans or someone else I dont remember, but investment in China was serious and huge. The aim wasn't simply about cutting down the cost on labors, in fact in the short run, the ROI wasn't ideal but in the long run, the quality can be improved significantly, the cost on labors going down is a side effect.
I knew top people working on and promoting lights-off manufacturing in the 1980s. All new technologies and processes have a much longer tail than we imagine. An extreme example: the concept of the steam engine was well-understood 2,000 years ago.
The big difference isn't cheap labor or subsidies. It's now more on automation and a efficient supply system. Also as for quality same quality comes out of all countries! Owners has a specific requirement which has to be met.
Chinese logistics is absurdly cheap. I can buy a 5kg dumbbell online from a different city and the whole thing include tax and shipping cost 3$😂. In America not even close to cover shipping cost
Correct. US has been subsidizing their semiconductor and aerospace industries with hundreds of billions of dollars. Yet... The naysayers always use subsidies as some bad and uncompetitive thing but everyone does it, and especially the western nations.
These orders were received a few years ago. The shipowner receives the ship and directly accepts transportation services in China, including cargo ships manufactured in South Korea. After being launched, they also directly receive transportation services in China.
China just signed a deal with Qatar for a whole lot of LNG ships. China is the only country that can build super carrier, LNG ship and ocean cruises, the three most complex ships to build. No other country comes even close.
@@cherrybomb1229”Your source”? LOL You’re commenting in an expert TH-cam channel who just showed you with official industry data that China’s market share went up from 50.6% in 2022 to 58.1% in 2023, “at the expense of Korea and other ship-building countries”… Remember - 1450ing may generate a few feel-good moments, but will never create any real value to help make your society a better one, nor will it prevent your enemy from becoming a stronger one.
As someone that works in logistics- are you under the impression I’m watching this video by accident? Don’t apologize for getting in the weeds. Hell you should call your show “bunker shots in logistics, with Sal.”
The Chinese have retained enough of their history to know the events that precipitated "dynasty changes" - and there have been a LOT of them. Most of these "events" were due to "climate change". The Chinese know what event begins around 2030 and are trying to prepare for it. China is essentially "land-locked" and can't expand their borders beyond what they currently have. Most of the West is "preparing" by trying to reduce the population in their countries while "clearing out" the population that is within +/- 1380 miles (+/- 20 degrees) of the Equator. Guess where most of the "migrants" come from? It is much easier to bait a trap and have them come to you.
During the agricultural era, China's agricultural output was the largest in the world, surpassing the second-largest producer by a significant margin, maintaining this leading position for thousands of years. However, with the onset of the industrial age, China lagged behind Western nations by more than a century, leading to devastating exploitation and massacres by industrialized Western countries. Today, China is merely striving to catch up with Western industrial technology. I believe that in the near future, China will reclaim its position as the world's number one and once again surpass the second-place nation by a wide margin.
Thanks Sal. As a WW2 nut and some basic understanding about logistics (war/economy), the USA was pumping out a Destroyer/escorts every 7 days (175 units/32 months) and cargo' (2,700 Liberty!!) ships. China is rising (JUST like the USA/WW2) and well it's going to get interesting. Peace and thanks for covering this!
Chinese civilian aircraft building capacity is seriously lacking, and I think aircraft is more important than ships these days. You can see why Chinese are in a hurry to build civilian jetliners manufacturing capability
@@stc2828 All in good time. They already mastered building high speed rail. Now they are on par with NASA with their space program. Aircraft will be the next milestone.
yes, China's industrial capacity is larger than that of the following 9 countries combined, and US' war budget is larger than that of next 9 countries combined so it would be really interesting when season 3 happens,
@@jhadjI think he meant with automated 5G ports where virtually AI was being used for all the port processing no humans at all involved except for monitoring inside the control system. You can check it online. Yes, all factories and major infrastructure in CHINA are rapidly modernizing in fast pace.
@@simonschneider5913 have you heard the expression “no one can predict the future least of all economists” how exactly is he supposed to predict aid flows and battlefield predictions etc? Also most of what he says is backed up by data and statistics.
Most of people only know the first tier shipyards belong to the CSSC group or Yangzijiang. But there are many 2nd, 3rd even 4th tier shipyard can build larger than 10K DWT ships are not included in the order book mentioned. If necessary, the big guy can easily to use the resource of the smaller shipyard and transfer to the mainline shipyards.
"overpriced military contractors" : Only 29% of F-35s are mission-capable. Cost to maintain fleet: 1.5 trillion USD. Operational hours trending down, while costs trending up. Facts. See Matt Gaetz questioning Secretary Austin.
What a fascinating channel. It gives me new insights into world trade expectations, competitive analysis of nations, trends in global supply chains, climate change analysis, and so much more. A wonderland for sata geeks and analysts of all types.
That's the reason why today's China is able to built those huge naval aircraft carriers, amphibious assault ships, submarines and those naval destroyers, frigates, littoral combat ships, cruiser and patrol ships for their territorial water defense.
I am just wondering if you think Hyundai have already made a contoured patch for the front of Dali, as they have the original plans...? Or would it be possible to use flat plate, over the hole in the bow...? I doubt if Baltimore has the facilities to bend sheet steel.
Every government including Japan Korea and USA give direct and indirect subsidies to their industries in areas where they want to compete . For example USA gave huge subsidies to Tesla during Obama period and more recently huge subsidies are being handed out for setting up semiconductor manufacturing plants in USA! Why blame China ! Why not give subsidies to shipbuilding in USA where shipyards are struggling to stay afloat and US government though providing cheap land and electricity to them is trying to fail the smaller yards so that they can give government contracts to big companies! Small yards like SwiftShips payments are being held up and the century old yard is struggling while for the same contract Austal is being paid twice! Is that China’s fault? Get your own house in order! Promote SME that produce things and stop rewarding financial sector, the stock exchanges, the hedge funds, the investment banks, Wall Street leeches and the software companies like Apple, Facebook, Microsoft etc who can buy politicians and government officials for favourable policies!
The problem is America society as a whole doesn’t want to do the hard work. IT’s manufacturing capabilities has been declining in all front from shipping buildings, airline manufacturing and chip manufacturing with the whole entire supply line industry disappearing these is why America can’t compete against China. All the smart people are in financial and companies all engage in financial manipulation instead of investing in advanced manufacturing. Look at today the AI revolution all you see is chat GPT that is all in service but where is the AL on manufacturing because America’s doesn’t have the supply chain left to do the job. What America has left is the printing press printing actually worthless piece of paper USD to exchange all the hard work from people around to supply the need for the American citizens, one day in the not too distant future the USD is destined to fail. The amount of US deficit is running at an sustainable level, the American economy seem great now but the house of card will end in horror.
@@peterau108 you are right the top talent including those gifted in maths head to financial sector which gives them better opportunities and more money
If you consider the four key factors of manufacturing: people, methods, capital, and markets, then you can easily predict that China is a potential leader in any product as long as the product is deemed by the Chinese government to be of great significance to the national economy. Simply put, if a product is not protected by patents (and therefore subject to sanctions barriers from some countries), it will be produced in China, better and cheaper. It's just math.
America, Japan and South Korea heavily subsidises ship building as well. Harvard report clearly outlines in relative terms subsidies are moot point and it is cheaper labour. Also states in the case of USA ship building subsidy is the greatest in USA but its not called a subsidy.
The interest rate hikes in the United States in recent years have led to Japan and South Korea also raising interest rates, which has had a great impact on industries such as shipbuilding companies that borrow huge amounts of money. China is indeed one of the few countries to cut interest rates, which has created a cost advantage.
I am also very curious about this. As much as china tries to censor everything, news does get out that they tend to cut corners and produce in poor quality. How could that effect these multimillion dollar investments?
If I’m a shipping business owner I’m putting up the extra money to buy mine from japan or south korea for sure. But thats not how corporate leaders think
Quality. Non-existent in Chinese products. As a former (retired) project manager having to deal with China in a heavy industry, I can tell you that people should think about forged documents, copyright infringements, and outright lies. But, as another commentary states,...it's not what top levels of management in corporations worry about. But...if you've dealt with China in the past...you already know this. South Korean products are far superior.
There is an automation push in the Chinese shipbuilding market, it would be an interesting topic to discuss in the context of other big shipbuilding countries.
Sal, the IMO's GHG emissions targets were changed more than a year ago to net-zero in 2050, from the previous 50% reduction you mentioned, in order to more closely align with the Paris agreement.
Really, as one living near/in a formerly wellknowm shipbuilding area on the baltic coast, these are quite startling stats. Thanks for made-understandable-and-sharing.
HulI, from what l understand. HulI ultrasounding is always the 1st priority in drydocking. Machinery, fittings etc. are way down the line. Vessels just dissolve in seawater - protective coatings, cathodic protection etc. notwithstanding.
We still have the Philly Shipyard around here, but it does not produce the number of ships like in China, South Korea, and Japan, and are built here for the US Merchant Marine.
Please stop blaming everything on America’s deindustrialization. Chinese outcompeted both Japan and South Korea and everyone else! There must be some other reason why it’s so competitive to build in China 😮
@@sfertonoc Cheap steel prices alone won't help China built more than half of the world's shipping tonnage. They have a skillful, capable, and hardworking workforce to make this happened. All three East Asian countries in fact. countries
@@Skidderoperatoragain China’s middle clasd is bigger than America’s population. Please keep bitching and making excuses the truth is America had become incompetent, look at Boeing. They’re literally assassinating whistleblowers to hide their shoddy work
Strategic central planning, you love to see it China literally publishes 5-year plans to all, work towards those goals and then re-visits in the next planning period. When you have a rotating prime minister/president every 4-5 years, it’s hard to have a long-term plan
Boston and NYC have the facilities, but do they have the skilled labor to build ships? When building the Freedom Tower, we had to get welders qualified to AWS D1.5 from all over the country.
I recently saw an article that the Chinese were looking to build an ultra large container that was Nuclear Powered. Is this true? I remember when the US built the Nuclear powered Savannah but one of the problems with running the ship was that it was not allowed into many nations harbors so it became a bust, what do you think of the Chinese chances of theirs being a success. I have also heard that a company was looking to build a modern sailing ship with vertical sails. What do you think of this project being a success?
Europe's ambition to fight a war with Russia will quickly cause them to realize they have shut down most of their steel mills. China is unlikely to sell steel to Europe to build artillery shells
A couple of years ago i was on a newbuild LNG carrier built by CSSC china, I was expecting a disaster but actually the build quality was ok... overall pretty much the same as korean...
Looking at the market share of China's shipbuilding industry, if there are quality problems, it means that more than half of the ships in the world have quality problems. I remember that a few years ago, a US fighter plane crashed into the sea, and they rented a Chinese-made deep-sea salvage ship owned by a Singaporean company to salvage it.
@@kamsunleong6648 this was in 2021, I can tell you at that time nobody was 'eager' to come onboard a Chinese new build, this is from the point of view of officers onboard. Overall china does not have a great reputation for build quality of anything (somebody correct me if I'm wrong). I have a new chinese-made lifejacket in my cabin here and the quality of it does not exactly fill me with confidence... You take over a market by undercutting the price, but it has to come at the expense of something...
@@onecanmadman It's just a stereotype. While it's true that you can capture the market by lowering prices, you can't do it all just by lowering prices, unless you assume that all buyers are stupid. At the very least, you must meet certain quality requirements while lowering prices. Therefore, if China can gradually account for a larger proportion of the entire market, it means that its overall cost performance is higher.
One doesn't have to memorize all the numbers, to see TRENDS. And the TRENDS have some pretty big global, as well as NATIONAL strategic implications, for us here locally. Shame that the powers that be, cannot see that as well.
maybe it's a problem with my browser, but from about minute 14 the screen shows the very same table, as Sal is going on talking on a host of different topics... hard to follow just listening to a string of numbers 😕Anybody experienced this?
26:48 who is this international Maritime organization? A fraternity of the largest ship builders and ship owners in the world attempting to raise cost that will drive the smaller shipping concerns out of business.
@27:00 The same is true anytime you try to convert from one fuel source to another. You HAVE to have the facilities in place to help drive the "conversion". These facilities are neither "simple" nor "cheap" to build but if you don't then the "new" products will never sell. Salesman: "Buy the new LNG-powered ship! It can get 100 NM per gallon!" Captain: "Sounds great! And where can I refuel this bad boy?" Salesman: "Right now, just Yantian or Galveston" Captain: "Yah, think I'll hold on to my old vessel for now"
about that fuel need, as we saw 2020 covid crash reduced oil demand significantly and they kept it runnning just as airflight (Cargo mostly) needed it and as byproduct there are other oil based fuel types, I wonder with these big green agenda and electrification, what would that look in shipping, as that uses crude heavy oil and other forms but in huge quantities as ships are heavy, so would there be similar effect or can ships simply burn crude oil when nothing else is available? some brand new cruise ships use natural gas or LNG for this reason. it's not about couple giant containerships but those maps are swarming with ships hauling some cargo, so amount is simply staggering in world scale. I dont see people are ready quite yet 1960s soviet futuristic prospects fashion to use nuclear power in civil merchant shipping.
Economy of scale and high vertical integration of supply chain make China very competitive in the market just like EV. Government subsidy, cheap labor, safety….the usual black filter. Buying a ship is major investment, don’t underestimate buyers’ intelligence in decision making. China is in lead in many industries, if subsidy is a factor for these leads then Chinese government should be bankrupted a long time ago, and we should label them as the “charity” government.
Tell me which industries in US do not get government subsidies. I had given government money to numerous nuclear, fossil, instrument, machinery manufacturers to help them develop commercial items.
13:08 "Low government oversight & safety standards" .... please refrain from having outdated mindset about China production & safety standards. Customers are not stupid, especially those buying LNG ships. China is already using AI in their shipbuilding process, from design to material management.
1) The Yen has weakened yuge (vs. the Dollar) since the Cooftime, the Won less so, & the Yuan less than that. At some point (soon?), the Japanese loss of market share to China may turn around. 2) Will be interesting to see how long dirty old little "garbage scow" ;) container ships stick around with high maintenance & insurance (& fuel?) costs & emissions taxes. Could it be that container rates are stabilizing at current levels?
Not to mentioned the top three builders, China, S.Korea and Japan. US is even much behind Vietnam, Philipine and Iran. How did US get to this situation? Loosing to Iran and Philipine?
China's dominance is probably based on its dominance on the entire supply chain, industrial policy and demographics --- mines for the steel, refinery of the steel, engines, electronics, automated ship-building etc. It will probably get worse for competitors. Finally, China graduates 6,000,000 tech workers (probably more than the rest of the world combined) per year, and will continue to do so for the next 30 years.
too complex and no room to cope for the average people in the west. Subsidy, stealing, low quality, China Bad is just about as much as they can understand or willing to understand. Apparently, they think they are smarter than the professionals and shipowners who paid hundreds of million of dollars to purchase ship from China.
So when will there be sanctions on Chinese ship building market? Somehow it remains to be sanctioned when it arguably needs to be sanctioned the most. South Korea and Japan have the full capacity in replacing them. Really looking forward to updates on that matter.
During the agricultural era, China's agricultural output was the largest in the world, surpassing the second-largest producer by a significant margin, maintaining this leading position for thousands of years. However, with the onset of the industrial age, China lagged behind Western nations by more than a century, leading to devastating exploitation and massacres by industrialized Western countries. Today, China is merely striving to catch up with Western industrial technology. I believe that in the near future, China will reclaim its position as the world's number one and once again surpass the second-place nation by a wide margin.
The United States has never had a place in the civilian shipbuilding industry. After World War II, a large number of military standard ships were built, which were emergency and not durable.
With members of Congress earning 100 percent a year on their stocks, far more than Buffett, you're talking to financial experts about whether ship building is too harsh
30 minutes of charts and graphs...... Everyone who watches the channel will hit the like button, but it would be interesting to know how many stick around through the full 30 minutes of numbers.
Sorry Sal, I managed to make it to 14:44, but my eyes glazed-over and I had to just give a thumbs-up and cut away to a cat video....................................
this is the kind of thing that happens when the entire US economy is based on increasingly esoteric financial products that have no particular relationship to reality
I agree. Sometimes, "If you build it... " nobody came. And all the kings horses, and all the kings men can't put all that money wasted on "studies" and "reports" back into the bank again.
I mean, they did decide on all these things after serious consideration? Some scientific/analytical trials, right? Proof of viability? Anything to indicate success beyond, "It's good for the (___________________)," insert cause here? China does it most grandly, just to be clear. But we all seem to do it, globally. (That's besides all the other nonsense.)
You dont understand our economy, think Rome and think of all the rest of the countries as tributary states. Our dollar and military is what we sell to the world wether they want it or not
The ongoing subprime auto loan crisis can’t hear you, from here.
Paired with legalized sports betting. You can now bet on anything at any level you want.
@@gpoplingregpoplin5682 wars are inflationary, you think China Russia and India have less inflation? The grass is ALWAYS greener on the other side
The only surprise is what took them so long. China is the world's largest importer and the world's largest exporter. An example would be their ro-ro ships. Because they've recently become the world's largest exporter of cars they're building a bunch of ships to carry them and wharves to load them. Cosco has ordered 24 new ships for this and they'll be built by the end of this year. No other country would come even remotely close to those timelines and all those EVs would end up sitting around in China.
Chinese shipbuilding is demand driven and Chinese shipyards are the only ones that can meet the demand.
Chinese cars are junk. 😂
China used to make most of the world’s toys and cloth, but wages in those sectors can never make it developed country. China just shifted to high end manufacturing, leaving cloth and other low end job to other countries
Each BYD car has five cameras with which China can spy
@@stc2828
Yup, China leaves those low end manufacturing products like cloth, jeans, shoes, hardware tools like ⚒️ hammer and other low end jobs to countries like Bangladesh, India, Vietnam and so on.
It's interesting how we kept hearing about the Chinese real estate implosion, when it was a coordinated action by the Chinese government to move workers and capital to sectors that it deemed more strategically important - like technology and shipbuilding. It's not possible to increase that much production that fast without centralized planning for years. (yes, that's a dirty word, but the shipbuilding supply chain doesn't just develop willy nilly).
If you just look at the quality of ships they are building it becomes apparent that they are world leaders not only in manufacturing capacity but also in innovative technology. The world’s first nuclear powered container ship running on an innovative Thorium reactor was announced few months back! Even BYD a battery and EV company has its own RORO ships running on LNG! And the first battery powered container ship has been launched!
We must sail on different ships, because all the Chinese made vessels i sailed in were not good to put it mildly.
@@ozymandias7592 even the modern ones? Their modern vessels are actually decent, though Chinese reputation on manufacturing has always known to put more focus on scale than quality.
@@ozymandias7592 things have changed completely just in the past few years. Now Chinese vessels are as good as any!
Ya guys even know how shipbuilding works? LoL.
All those Architectural drawings, are drawn up as per CUSTOMERS request. Each are then scrutinised by Independent IACS for approval. As the shipbuild in progress IACS surveyors and Owners Superintendent are always present, monitoring to sign off the builds. Main Engine and its Auxiliaries machinery are perogative of OWNERS decisions. Its maintenance are of ship crew responsibility.
Ya ever heard of naval incidents that blames the ShipYard building it ? 😂😂.
@@ozymandias7592 I have sailed on Chinese ships designed in 2005 delivered in 2009 and then years later in ones designed in 2013 delivered in 2018, they were a world apart! And now with the latest manufacturing processes and technologies and expanded shipyards, the newer ships are world class! That is why they are getting such orders.
i have recently visited a Geely production plant (Geely is the owner of volvo and biggest single share holder of Mercedes), it was a complete lights off operation. it was especially terrifying when i just walked in before the light was turned on, i saw sea of tiny red lights rapidly moving around in the dark. there are so few people on the production line i think labor cost is irrelevant. i only saw people at end of the production line doing inspections, and a few people here there putting some interior trims. it was the most automated production line i have ever seen. Even tesla lines had more people
That light-off factory is a classic scenario of Industry 4.0 or MIC 2025, it is very common in factories of tech giants in China. The idea was initiated by Germans or someone else I dont remember, but investment in China was serious and huge. The aim wasn't simply about cutting down the cost on labors, in fact in the short run, the ROI wasn't ideal but in the long run, the quality can be improved significantly, the cost on labors going down is a side effect.
I knew top people working on and promoting lights-off manufacturing in the 1980s. All new technologies and processes have a much longer tail than we imagine. An extreme example: the concept of the steam engine was well-understood 2,000 years ago.
The big difference isn't cheap labor or subsidies. It's now more on automation and a efficient supply system. Also as for quality same quality comes out of all countries! Owners has a specific requirement which has to be met.
Chinese logistics is absurdly cheap. I can buy a 5kg dumbbell online from a different city and the whole thing include tax and shipping cost 3$😂. In America not even close to cover shipping cost
Pecundang hanya tau upah murah dan subsidi 😂😂 dia tidak tau bagaimana cara membuat sesuatu harus mempunyai kemampuan 😂😂
Correct. US has been subsidizing their semiconductor and aerospace industries with hundreds of billions of dollars. Yet... The naysayers always use subsidies as some bad and uncompetitive thing but everyone does it, and especially the western nations.
"cheap labor" is also a misnomer. Personnel are paid very well in China with alot of perks from employers
实际上纺织业、制鞋业以及其他低端制造业十几年前就开始离开中国了，就比如我在中国买的的vans和Nike鞋是印度尼西亚制造😂，中国的劳动力价格优势很久以前就不存在了
Excellent report. China is also the world's largest producer of steel.
These orders were received a few years ago. The shipowner receives the ship and directly accepts transportation services in China, including cargo ships manufactured in South Korea. After being launched, they also directly receive transportation services in China.
China just signed a deal with Qatar for a whole lot of LNG ships. China is the only country that can build super carrier, LNG ship and ocean cruises, the three most complex ships to build. No other country comes even close.
Supercarrier😂😂😂 it only looks good on outside just like all other stuff they make. Totally junk products foreigners laugh about.
@@cherrybomb1229 When a country can built super LNG tankers then it means they are a top shipbuilder and the US can build no shipts
@@cherrybomb1229keep coping .
@@cherrybomb1229”Your source”? LOL
You’re commenting in an expert TH-cam channel who just showed you with official industry data that China’s market share went up from 50.6% in 2022 to 58.1% in 2023, “at the expense of Korea and other ship-building countries”…
Remember - 1450ing may generate a few feel-good moments, but will never create any real value to help make your society a better one, nor will it prevent your enemy from becoming a stronger one.
@@cherrybomb1229"Written on a phone made in china..."
China's industrial system is the most complete in the world. It is no longer just the world's factory, but the most complete industry.
Yes, China is the only country in the world that established all industrial sectors defined by UN.
China's industrial output value is the sum of the second to ninth places.
王婆卖瓜
@@farmers740 “王婆卖瓜”的意思你明白吗？中国是唯一拥有联合国定义的全部工业门类的国家，这就是事实，哪里跟自夸能联系得上？先好好学学汉语吧。
@@bearpolo3618 简单说就是低端代工厂
Congrats to China ❤
this gonna be interesting. Sal is very unbiased, as I see many inflict bias despite saying they are not. Humans be humans.
As someone that works in logistics- are you under the impression I’m watching this video by accident?
Don’t apologize for getting in the weeds.
Hell you should call your show “bunker shots in logistics, with Sal.”
please, my liver complains enough with "Bab al-Mandab"
No more "shots"
The Chinese have retained enough of their history to know the events that precipitated "dynasty changes" - and there have been a LOT of them. Most of these "events" were due to "climate change". The Chinese know what event begins around 2030 and are trying to prepare for it. China is essentially "land-locked" and can't expand their borders beyond what they currently have. Most of the West is "preparing" by trying to reduce the population in their countries while "clearing out" the population that is within +/- 1380 miles (+/- 20 degrees) of the Equator. Guess where most of the "migrants" come from? It is much easier to bait a trap and have them come to you.
China’s industrial capacity is really amazing!
The industrial base of China is impressive.
And, we paid for it. They’re still investing the retirement of Americans in Chinese markets.
China accounts for 1/3 of world manufacturing. That's why trade wars and tech sanctions won't work on China.
During the agricultural era, China's agricultural output was the largest in the world, surpassing the second-largest producer by a significant margin, maintaining this leading position for thousands of years. However, with the onset of the industrial age, China lagged behind Western nations by more than a century, leading to devastating exploitation and massacres by industrialized Western countries. Today, China is merely striving to catch up with Western industrial technology. I believe that in the near future, China will reclaim its position as the world's number one and once again surpass the second-place nation by a wide margin.
Thanks Sal.
As a WW2 nut and some basic understanding about logistics (war/economy), the USA was pumping out a Destroyer/escorts every 7 days (175 units/32 months) and cargo' (2,700 Liberty!!) ships.
China is rising (JUST like the USA/WW2) and well it's going to get interesting.
Peace and thanks for covering this!
I believe we are in a cold war and the government is blind to the three Axis members causing trouble already.
Chinese civilian aircraft building capacity is seriously lacking, and I think aircraft is more important than ships these days. You can see why Chinese are in a hurry to build civilian jetliners manufacturing capability
@@stc2828
All in good time. They already mastered building high speed rail. Now they are on par with NASA with their space program. Aircraft will be the next milestone.
How does China's current manufacturing capacity compare to that of the United States during World War II?
yes, China's industrial capacity is larger than that of the following 9 countries combined,
and US' war budget is larger than that of next 9 countries combined
so it would be really interesting when season 3 happens,
China has almost completely automated ship building factories that are close to running lights off. Its pretty fascinating yet terrifying to watch.
Show me
@@jhadjI think he meant with automated 5G ports where virtually AI was being used for all the port processing no humans at all involved except for monitoring inside the control system. You can check it online. Yes, all factories and major infrastructure in CHINA are rapidly modernizing in fast pace.
Robots per capita is still much higher in South Korea than China.
巡航导弹也是自动化生产，恐惧吗😊
@@dreadfulbodyguard7288人均？你要不要比一下人口和国土面积？韩国的国土面积太小啦，我们称之为弹丸小国
😂😂😂 denialism is a very bad mental disorder. Just bad mouthing China against all known facts is what has led Europe and US in this impending dead-end.
Still tracking ya on the shipping videos and watching all them. Enjoying the work. 😌
"Perun" in the morning, "What about Shipping" in the afternoon… nice 😊 👍
same lol!
Ditto
Thanks for reminding me. This, Perun and Drachinifel, actually eat then up for work at 3am.
peruns track record is abysmal. listen to what he said early 2023...its not even funny anymore.
@@simonschneider5913 have you heard the expression “no one can predict the future least of all economists” how exactly is he supposed to predict aid flows and battlefield predictions etc? Also most of what he says is backed up by data and statistics.
Most of people only know the first tier shipyards belong to the CSSC group or Yangzijiang. But there are many 2nd, 3rd even 4th tier shipyard can build larger than 10K DWT ships are not included in the order book mentioned. If necessary, the big guy can easily to use the resource of the smaller shipyard and transfer to the mainline shipyards.
Imagine having an actual industrial policy. Best we can do is overpriced military contractors and dangerous financial instruments.
Crazy to think about. I'm sure there is room for more competition, but it's also a cultural issue in USA
I thought everything was rosy under Bidenomics? 🤣
But does China have gender-neutral toilets? See, we're so 'advanced'!
"overpriced military contractors" : Only 29% of F-35s are mission-capable. Cost to maintain fleet: 1.5 trillion USD. Operational hours trending down, while costs trending up. Facts. See Matt Gaetz questioning Secretary Austin.
@@dee-vee Geeze is it really that bad? I thought it was around 50%
Great video. Thank you for so thoroughly explaining what these charts mean. It is very confusing and you break it down so anyone can understand. 👍🏼👍🏼
What a fascinating channel. It gives me new insights into world trade expectations, competitive analysis of nations, trends in global supply chains, climate change analysis, and so much more. A wonderland for sata geeks and analysts of all types.
Thanks my guy. I’m glad I found your page
That's the reason why today's China is able to built those huge naval aircraft carriers, amphibious assault ships, submarines and those naval destroyers, frigates, littoral combat ships, cruiser and patrol ships for their territorial water defense.
I am just wondering if you think Hyundai have already made a contoured patch for the front of Dali, as they have the original plans...? Or would it be possible to use flat plate, over the hole in the bow...? I doubt if Baltimore has the facilities to bend sheet steel.
Every government including Japan Korea and USA give direct and indirect subsidies to their industries in areas where they want to compete . For example USA gave huge subsidies to Tesla during Obama period and more recently huge subsidies are being handed out for setting up semiconductor manufacturing plants in USA! Why blame China ! Why not give subsidies to shipbuilding in USA where shipyards are struggling to stay afloat and US government though providing cheap land and electricity to them is trying to fail the smaller yards so that they can give government contracts to big companies! Small yards like SwiftShips payments are being held up and the century old yard is struggling while for the same contract Austal is being paid twice! Is that China’s fault? Get your own house in order! Promote SME that produce things and stop rewarding financial sector, the stock exchanges, the hedge funds, the investment banks, Wall Street leeches and the software companies like Apple, Facebook, Microsoft etc who can buy politicians and government officials for favourable policies!
The problem is America society as a whole doesn’t want to do the hard work. IT’s manufacturing capabilities has been declining in all front from shipping buildings, airline manufacturing and chip manufacturing with the whole entire supply line industry disappearing these is why America can’t compete against China. All the smart people are in financial and companies all engage in financial manipulation instead of investing in advanced manufacturing. Look at today the AI revolution all you see is chat GPT that is all in service but where is the AL on manufacturing because America’s doesn’t have the supply chain left to do the job. What America has left is the printing press printing actually worthless piece of paper USD to exchange all the hard work from people around to supply the need for the American citizens, one day in the not too distant future the USD is destined to fail. The amount of US deficit is running at an sustainable level, the American economy seem great now but the house of card will end in horror.
@@peterau108 you are right the top talent including those gifted in maths head to financial sector which gives them better opportunities and more money
Excellent stats and info. Very constructive. Thanks.
Wow, lots of detail.
If you consider the four key factors of manufacturing: people, methods, capital, and markets, then you can easily predict that China is a potential leader in any product as long as the product is deemed by the Chinese government to be of great significance to the national economy. Simply put, if a product is not protected by patents (and therefore subject to sanctions barriers from some countries), it will be produced in China, better and cheaper. It's just math.
America, Japan and South Korea heavily subsidises ship building as well.
Harvard report clearly outlines in relative terms subsidies are moot point and it is cheaper labour.
Also states in the case of USA ship building subsidy is the greatest in USA but its not called a subsidy.
The interest rate hikes in the United States in recent years have led to Japan and South Korea also raising interest rates, which has had a great impact on industries such as shipbuilding companies that borrow huge amounts of money. China is indeed one of the few countries to cut interest rates, which has created a cost advantage.
true,the business of ships is about it to some degree.
sal, can you do an episode on ship build quality?
like what kind of things and places would you look at to judge ship build quality?
I am also very curious about this. As much as china tries to censor everything, news does get out that they tend to cut corners and produce in poor quality. How could that effect these multimillion dollar investments?
If I’m a shipping business owner I’m putting up the extra money to buy mine from japan or south korea for sure. But thats not how corporate leaders think
Quality. Non-existent in Chinese products. As a former (retired) project manager having to deal with China in a heavy industry, I can tell you that people should think about forged documents, copyright infringements, and outright lies. But, as another commentary states,...it's not what top levels of management in corporations worry about.
But...if you've dealt with China in the past...you already know this.
South Korean products are far superior.
@@bogeys1242yeah like my iPhone, the quality is nonexistent 😂😂
@@bogeys1242 Cope. You get what you pay for. There's a reason why Ukraine prefers DJI over american drones. Cheap and better quality.
What kind of engine burns ammonia? That's new to me...didn't know it could combust!!
MAN B&W and Werstila
Thank you, Sal!
Does UK come under Europe or RoW? ....or DNQ?....
Many thanks Sal. Very important update
There is an automation push in the Chinese shipbuilding market, it would be an interesting topic to discuss in the context of other big shipbuilding countries.
How explosive are ammonia loaded ships?
How to beat a country that is building quality ships, competitive prices, fast delivery, and financial support?
sanction with the name of freedom and democracy
war
@@WarLionsofGesar How to go to war with a MAD-capable country?
@@WarLionsofGesaroh boy, be careful of what you wish fkr
@@JinghuaN2G what if not? bite me?
Sal, the IMO's GHG emissions targets were changed more than a year ago to net-zero in 2050, from the previous 50% reduction you mentioned, in order to more closely align with the Paris agreement.
Would you mind eventually doing a video on the container/gantry cranes? How they’re built, where they’re built, how they’re used, etc.
Are ULCCs not a thing anymore??
Really, as one living near/in a formerly wellknowm shipbuilding area on the baltic coast, these are quite startling stats. Thanks for made-understandable-and-sharing.
Sal is it the hull or fittings that wear out first
HulI, from what l understand. HulI ultrasounding is always the 1st priority in drydocking. Machinery, fittings etc. are way down the line. Vessels just dissolve in seawater - protective coatings, cathodic protection etc. notwithstanding.
Sal...Great information! Can you give the who's building, ordering, ICE Class vessels?
I'm curious, are ULCC tankers in use or being built? Back in the early 80's I was on the ULCC Esso Atlantic
We still have the Philly Shipyard around here, but it does not produce the number of ships like in China, South Korea, and Japan, and are built here for the US Merchant Marine.
You guys are just too busy with your stupid financial "products" and your overlords, Israel and the Military Industrial Complex.
Please stop blaming everything on America’s deindustrialization. Chinese outcompeted both Japan and South Korea and everyone else! There must be some other reason why it’s so competitive to build in China 😮
Chinese cheating for steel prices at the WTO helps too.
@@sfertonoc
Cheap steel prices alone won't help China built more than half of the world's shipping tonnage. They have a skillful, capable, and hardworking workforce to make this happened. All three East Asian countries in fact.
countries
Easy to kill competition when you have slave labor.
@@Skidderoperatoragain China’s middle clasd is bigger than America’s population. Please keep bitching and making excuses the truth is America had become incompetent, look at Boeing. They’re literally assassinating whistleblowers to hide their shoddy work
@@Skidderoperator Chinese labors are paid higher than most other developing countries 😀
So all we build in the USA is warships?
@ 00:20 ish ?
Is that ship moving thru the Amazon Rain Forest ? (why not ?)
Subsidies? Dude....did you know cost of doing business in china is much lower than other place?
Always a good time
Thanks Sal
Strategic central planning, you love to see it
China literally publishes 5-year plans to all, work towards those goals and then re-visits in the next planning period.
When you have a rotating prime minister/president every 4-5 years, it’s hard to have a long-term plan
Hi. I was alerted to your channel by Jaun at Blancolirio.
Absolutely fantastic content.
Thanks for explaining shipping simply.
Does the Jones Act apply to aircraft?
No
13:36 fair to say, allying with us was a bad bet?
Boston and NYC have the facilities, but do they have the skilled labor to build ships? When building the Freedom Tower, we had to get welders qualified to AWS D1.5 from all over the country.
US got high pay labor with no skill whatsoever
What will happen to the Dali? Will a new bow be installed in China.? It will have to be patched before it can be sent a shipyard that can handle her.
People still focus on how to remove those bridge steel.
I recently saw an article that the Chinese were looking to build an ultra large container that was Nuclear Powered. Is this true? I remember when the US built the Nuclear powered Savannah but one of the problems with running the ship was that it was not allowed into many nations harbors so it became a bust, what do you think of the Chinese chances of theirs being a success.
I have also heard that a company was looking to build a modern sailing ship with vertical sails. What do you think of this project being a success?
If ships are built in the US, how much steel is needed from China?
Europe's ambition to fight a war with Russia will quickly cause them to realize they have shut down most of their steel mills. China is unlikely to sell steel to Europe to build artillery shells
they will buy more cheaper steel from india
Excellent thank you
Damn! China is completing 7 ships per day every day of the week! 🤯
Could u give container costs around the world
720p?
Don't know why it recorded in such a low resolution. Sorry!
A couple of years ago i was on a newbuild LNG carrier built by CSSC china, I was expecting a disaster but actually the build quality was ok... overall pretty much the same as korean...
Looking at the market share of China's shipbuilding industry, if there are quality problems, it means that more than half of the ships in the world have quality problems.
I remember that a few years ago, a US fighter plane crashed into the sea, and they rented a Chinese-made deep-sea salvage ship owned by a Singaporean company to salvage it.
Why should you be expecting a disaster in the first place. Their reputation is already well established.
@@kamsunleong6648 this was in 2021, I can tell you at that time nobody was 'eager' to come onboard a Chinese new build, this is from the point of view of officers onboard. Overall china does not have a great reputation for build quality of anything (somebody correct me if I'm wrong). I have a new chinese-made lifejacket in my cabin here and the quality of it does not exactly fill me with confidence... You take over a market by undercutting the price, but it has to come at the expense of something...
@@onecanmadmanok you base your judgement on a cheap jacket your ship provide. But good quality one and guess what, probably made in China too.
@@onecanmadman It's just a stereotype. While it's true that you can capture the market by lowering prices, you can't do it all just by lowering prices, unless you assume that all buyers are stupid. At the very least, you must meet certain quality requirements while lowering prices. Therefore, if China can gradually account for a larger proportion of the entire market, it means that its overall cost performance is higher.
Simply stated, we really need to grow or we will die. As far as world shipping is conmcernned.
Not to mentioned the top three, China, S.Korea and Japan, in fact, US is behind Vietnam, Philipine and Iran.
😆
"in particular, Japan, South Korea, Europe, and the rest of the world".
Lol. Great video!
Can you point to any difference in build quality/ lifespan between Korea/Japan, vs. Chinese built vessels? Just curious...
Japan is already out of the competition. Its basically Skorea vs China when it comes to global shipbuilding.
The market shares simply speaks for themselves
One doesn't have to memorize all the numbers, to see TRENDS. And the TRENDS have some pretty big global, as well as NATIONAL strategic implications, for us here locally. Shame that the powers that be, cannot see that as well.
maybe it's a problem with my browser, but from about minute 14 the screen shows the very same table, as Sal is going on talking on a host of different topics... hard to follow just listening to a string of numbers 😕Anybody experienced this?
you need to change your graphic card.
How much of shipbuilding is just assembly as opposed to components like engines and navigation? Not sure this question is approbose in this area.
26:48 who is this international Maritime organization? A fraternity of the largest ship builders and ship owners in the world attempting to raise cost that will drive the smaller shipping concerns out of business.
@27:00 The same is true anytime you try to convert from one fuel source to another. You HAVE to have the facilities in place to help drive the "conversion". These facilities are neither "simple" nor "cheap" to build but if you don't then the "new" products will never sell.
Salesman: "Buy the new LNG-powered ship! It can get 100 NM per gallon!"
Captain: "Sounds great! And where can I refuel this bad boy?"
Salesman: "Right now, just Yantian or Galveston"
Captain: "Yah, think I'll hold on to my old vessel for now"
thanks
about that fuel need, as we saw 2020 covid crash reduced oil demand significantly and they kept it runnning just as airflight (Cargo mostly) needed it and as byproduct there are other oil based fuel types, I wonder with these big green agenda and electrification, what would that look in shipping, as that uses crude heavy oil and other forms but in huge quantities as ships are heavy, so would there be similar effect or can ships simply burn crude oil when nothing else is available? some brand new cruise ships use natural gas or LNG for this reason. it's not about couple giant containerships but those maps are swarming with ships hauling some cargo, so amount is simply staggering in world scale. I dont see people are ready quite yet 1960s soviet futuristic prospects fashion to use nuclear power in civil merchant shipping.
Some wells produce light sweet crude, and some wells produce heavy sour crude. Very different product
China was building nuclear powered merchant shipping container ships last I heard about a couple months ago.
Economy of scale and high vertical integration of supply chain make China very competitive in the market just like EV.
Government subsidy, cheap labor, safety….the usual black filter. Buying a ship is major investment, don’t underestimate buyers’ intelligence in decision making. China is in lead in many industries, if subsidy is a factor for these leads then Chinese government should be bankrupted a long time ago, and we should label them as the “charity” government.
The world s number one in ship building and also car making
Tell me which industries in US do not get government subsidies. I had given government money to numerous nuclear, fossil, instrument, machinery manufacturers to help them develop commercial items.
13:08 "Low government oversight & safety standards" .... please refrain from having outdated mindset about China production & safety standards. Customers are not stupid, especially those buying LNG ships. China is already using AI in their shipbuilding process, from design to material management.
You Rock with Bells of time
Bravo China...current & future superpower in everything.
1) The Yen has weakened yuge (vs. the Dollar) since the Cooftime, the Won less so, & the Yuan less than that. At some point (soon?), the Japanese loss of market share to China may turn around.
2) Will be interesting to see how long dirty old little "garbage scow" ;) container ships stick around with high maintenance & insurance (& fuel?) costs & emissions taxes. Could it be that container rates are stabilizing at current levels?
Not to mentioned the top three builders, China, S.Korea and Japan.
US is even much behind Vietnam, Philipine and Iran.
How did US get to this situation?
Loosing to Iran and Philipine?
Pinay should be proud. 😊
China's dominance is probably based on its dominance on the entire supply chain, industrial policy and demographics --- mines for the steel, refinery of the steel, engines, electronics, automated ship-building etc. It will probably get worse for competitors. Finally, China graduates 6,000,000 tech workers (probably more than the rest of the world combined) per year, and will continue to do so for the next 30 years.
too complex and no room to cope for the average people in the west. Subsidy, stealing, low quality, China Bad is just about as much as they can understand or willing to understand. Apparently, they think they are smarter than the professionals and shipowners who paid hundreds of million of dollars to purchase ship from China.
So when will there be sanctions on Chinese ship building market? Somehow it remains to be sanctioned when it arguably needs to be sanctioned the most. South Korea and Japan have the full capacity in replacing them. Really looking forward to updates on that matter.
A lot of European Ro Ro ferry operators are designing and then supervising construction in China , because the build is cheaper there .
How does China's current manufacturing capacity compare to that of the United States during World War II?
中国有能力生产出比二战美国生产出军舰还要庞大。中国是一个十几亿人口的工业国家。相当于整个欧洲或者美国总人口。他个工业占了全世界七分。5
Don't think I heard a single Bab-el-Mandeb. On Cinco de Mayo, no less!
The US has been used to earning easy money for a long time. Manufacturing jobs are too tedious and exhausting
During the agricultural era, China's agricultural output was the largest in the world, surpassing the second-largest producer by a significant margin, maintaining this leading position for thousands of years. However, with the onset of the industrial age, China lagged behind Western nations by more than a century, leading to devastating exploitation and massacres by industrialized Western countries. Today, China is merely striving to catch up with Western industrial technology. I believe that in the near future, China will reclaim its position as the world's number one and once again surpass the second-place nation by a wide margin.
But that really started because of container ships to haul there cargo all over the world an now they rake it in
Why do people always assume that China has lower safety standards??
Initially, it's mass building. Currently it's quality building
We need to invest seriously in shipbuilding again. Hope some Congressfolk are listening
The United States has never had a place in the civilian shipbuilding industry. After World War II, a large number of military standard ships were built, which were emergency and not durable.
US government is actively working to destroy small and medium shipyards!
Will you readily subside the shipbuilding n yard with your hard earned tax ...
With members of Congress earning 100 percent a year on their stocks, far more than Buffett, you're talking to financial experts about whether ship building is too harsh
@@Ginyiwei Dude you need to train your troll bot a little better. This comment doesn't make sense.
30 minutes of charts and graphs...... Everyone who watches the channel will hit the like button, but it would be interesting to know how many stick around through the full 30 minutes of numbers.
I do - it seems rude not to after Sal has gone to so much trouble to create it.
US decline due to having those "Proud Boys"... and some mentality "why work when its ok to loot"😂😂😂
If China always provides tons of subsidies to various industries, it should be worsened off by these trades, right?
Sorry Sal, I managed to make it to 14:44, but my eyes glazed-over and I had to just give a thumbs-up and cut away to a cat video....................................
No worries. This is a pure wonk video, but I love this stuff.
WHAT IS THE TOP 5 COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD IN MANUFACTURING OF SHIPS???