History Always Repeats: A Common Trend in Hobbies
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 23 มี.ค. 2024
- No intro, no titles... just some thoughts on what's going on as the model train hobby evolves and how this evolution was forecasted by the same trends in other "collector" hobbies.
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Totally agree. Every hobby has it's own Expenses, and trends. It's all about how one approaches the hobby. If we want to follow our hobby, we need to find a way to adjust.
I can not complain... I do not have the history. I merely noticed how all 4 of these hobbies I was active in went through the same phase.
Very True and also a Creative Hobby 😊
It definitely crosses many genres, but the driving force of the hobby is the model loco and that is where this trend rears its head over and over - on the collector side of things.
I think I am in the bells and whistles category..
I love hunting down those rare items ..it took me 10 years to complete the Fleischmann rolling Road with the two Marklin Herpa locos to pull it...
This is what keeps me interested in the hobby..
Great vid Anthony..
As am I. Just weird so many different hobbies seem to go through these phases in the same way and order.
As usual Anthony, a very thoughtful and well delivered assessment of where we are right now.
I don't know how well-delivered it was. I did want a "shoot-from-the-hip" video rather than a calculated one. The next video is going to be more interesting... and longer.
So i think one thing model railroading does have a huge advantage in is the growth of use with 3D printing. If something is too pricey or they can't find that one item, we are now in an age that we can make it ourselves, to a degree. Its nice to see because it bucks the trends you highlighted. As 3D printing gets more accessable and user friendly, the business model of FOMO (fear of missing out) could be a thing of the past. We could one day see a made to order style of business/hobby once technology improves.
3D printing is revolutionizing the accessory hobby and secondary repair market, but the basic nuts and bolts loco will continue to follow these higher trends. And even 3D printing will see a similar trend in a few years as it grows and more people get into it. It will not change the price of motorized locos and digital stock, but it definitely will affect the scenery and layout design aspect. Companies like Walthers and Vollmer have more to fear from 3D printing than Hornby, Athearn, or Roco.
@ModelTrainOutsider and this is why, for now, anyways, I am glad there are multiple companies competing for our dollar. Some customers only get that one chance to buy that expensive locomotive. Take the gs4 from bli. Many bought it since it came out first and was a highly demanded model and scaletrains is so slow to get theirs out that they may have missed out. Could be worse though, I came from warhammer 40k and Pokémon tcg and the marketshare hold they have, priced me out of the market and you always need a second player to unlock the full potential. Model railroading allows me to enjoy that $500 model in so many different ways in single player mode :) cheers! love these discussions.
@rayronvr yes, multiple companies. They may compete to keep prices down, but they also compete to draw the bigger spenders. Baseball cards were cheaper when it was TOPPs as the only real option. Dunross and Fleer came in. They were not cheaper, but offered more stats. Topps raised prices to pay to change their system. Fleer introduced special deluxe cards. Topps countered with chasers. Upper Deck came in and was 50% more expensive, but offered fancier cards, hi-res images... collectors ate it up. Topps had to change, other companies died out as the new, fancier, and more expensive higher-end companies took over. Same with toys in details and action figure points of articulation. Happens over and over.
Baby boomers coming Into the hobby created a bulge In our population. I'm near the end of that generation entering retirement.
My beef is not enough undecorated equipment being made. It's always selling out fast on release. Manufacturers can't be convinced this means supply is too short. I've spoken to several. Sigh.
Great thoughts there Anthony, make sense! (Dave).
Just a clarity response as I have heard many UK and US channels grumbling about the sudden change in the train hobby... I merely point out these other hobbies experienced the exact same shift in paradigm ... sports cards in the late 70s/early 80s, comics in the late 80s/early 90s, action figure toys in both the 80s and then the 2000s... now model trains. Nature of the beast in collection-based hobbies...
Status Quo---> Sudden Expansion---> Switch to fancier/more expensive to feed the new base---> old guard grumbles
That's a great "state of the union" address, Anthony, and very true. Fortunately, I'm not really a collector - I just have enough stuff to tinker with, that's what I enjoy.
Obviously, the less one collects, the less affected by the trend. I have just seen dozens of videos as folks discuss problems f economics and the evolution of this particular hobby... so, I just explained that, regardless of the pros or cons, this is the cycle the hobby is in, as it happens to every hobby that has a collector basis in it. Model trains (like 1:1 cars) may not seem like a collector hobby to many/most, but they have a large element of it which is, and that affects all the folks in it to some minute degree.
Some very good points Anthony. Thank you for sharing your opinion
Andy
Hello Andy. It is not so much about opinion as a concurrent trend that hits every collectible-based hobby over time. How heavy it affects the hobby is different, but it is a consistent event.
Thank you, Anthony, for your pause&insight on the hobby. Well said🙏👍
Now understand when you all lose interest. I'll be buying all of it on the cheap&taking the sidecutters to all your gimmicks😂😂 DC'n everything🤪
Still on board🚂🇨🇦🇺🇲🙋
Thanks for the kind words. Not everyone loses interest. Normally the old guard, old ways folks are the ones who bail first. Hence, the fancy stuff becomes the norm. lol
Very interesting analysis of the Marketing strategies of Toy Companies.Once a Teacher always a Teacher.Your in your element teaching.I understand your message.One of the obstacles of model Trains is space.Another obstacle is the trend of the Loop layout.Train going around a loop gets boring.The reverse loop brings more interest to layout.The ability to turn train around.
Well, I am a looper, but we all have our thing. I have just seen a ton of videos of folks not happy or uncertain with what is going on in the model train world, so I thought I would say my piece and point out it is something that happens in every collectible market, sometimes more than once.
Hi Anthony two words, Well said.
Three more words,
Progression is inspiring. Colin
Thank you, Collin.
Heyyyy mister Anthony :) I really do not have any other comment than..Spot on. :) It really is a trend going across the various hobbies..as i am into quite some different hobbies myself. 1/1 car hobby, Rc hobby , 90"s MTB/downhill bike hobby, "vinyl" records hobby....i can clearly see the same " trend" if you like..in all of these very different hobbies...and i agree.There is really not much you can do..other than do what suits one self best,and try to be happy with what we/you have. I have been busy lately..so your friday lives have just passed without me beeing able to come on the live.So i will try to catch up soon:) By the way....talkin about trends...This is really what happens in the 1/1 new car marked aswell...Have you seen the new EV powered Dodge Charger....the promotinal video....What do you think of it? there is really two distinct camps...the one who really likes it..but most others really see it as a " taunt" againts the Dodge brothers....anyways...speak soon :) Greetings from the Norwegian Viking,Stefan :)
Hello, Stefan! Similar events do hit any hobby because it is part of market economics. Market economics are affected by many things. Hobbies are also affected by costs and trade, etc, but collectible hobbies all get caught in this pattern somewhere along the line, sometimes (like action figure collectors) more than once.
Cool video, totally agree…love the advancement in DCC, especially sound.
In the end, I was merely pointing a trend out that has occurred identically in various hobbies I was associated with. It is neither good nor bad... it just is. I am a bells and whistles guy and I do not mind the price now. 10-15 years ago, I would have been complaining.
Fantastic take on the state of the Hobby...anyone's hobby too, not just trains and railways. Excellent Lecture and duly noted, Prof. Dodge. It is a Marketing Ploy indeed and thank you for taking the time and being able to look inward at things from the other side of it all. All the best to you both and thank you, Anthony, for the talk. Cheers!
It is a ploy, but also a response demanded from the new influx of consumers. Even when a minority in the hobby, they tend to be more aggressive financially, and more demanding of what's in the product... or, how beepy and shiny it is.
I agree with you 100%.
I have seen this trend in so many hobbies. We blame the manufacturers, but they follow trends for the money, even if it might be short-term gain over long-term collapse.
Its definitely an interesting crossroads we're at now in the hobby, Anthony! But, I feel alot of the increased costs (and this also goes back to the "corporate" portion of your thoughts) is the huge leap in the level of detail and features we now have in current locomotives and now even rolling stock. People are demanding more and more road specific detailing, and more features (be it lights, sound, animated features, etc.), which then drives the costs up further. Back when trains were "cheap" in the 90s, models were essentially a "one body style fits all schemes" offering from various manufacturer (example: the HO scale Atlas General Electric U33C and U36C were the exact same body with no variations, and the paint scheme determined whether the locomotive was sold as a U33C or a U36C), and if you wanted a road specific and era specific model, you either, A: built it yourself, or B: buy extremely expensive brass models. But even then, the so called "cheap" locomotives really weren't that cheap when you compare it to what minimum wage was during that time. But as time progressed, people demanded more detail, more features, more everything, and here we are at this interesting paradox the hobby is currently experiencing (as you stated, going where the money is). Another issue, is alot of the toxicity thats also in the hobby as well, people looking down and even to the point of bullying others because they're layout and/or rolling stock didn't meet their expectations, that's not helping the hobby either. I just feel there's a sector of the hobby that treats it more as a 2nd job than a past time in which to have fun, and I kinda feel companies are listening to this very vocal minority, and are starting to lose focus on the bigger picture on what made the hobby so great!
Hey, Randall,... the huge leap in detail is part of this repeated trend... like action figures with sculpting and points of articulation, comics and variant/fancy covers, and baseball cards with deluxe editions and such... you get the influx... you get the special, more detailed, more expensive... and that becomes the norm... which leaves a lot of folks feeling screwed.
Great discussion Anthony. You can apply this view to You Tube itself. A lot of the people I have subscribed to are no longer active or have announced they no longer publish videos. Thanks for sharing. Dave
There are some similarities, as the hobby's landscape and core groups change, this will be reflected on TH-cam, as TH-cam is just an amalgamation of various communities, including many hobbies. Thanks for watching.
I've started with Märklin again and made the switch to digital and c-rail, selling my old analogue m-rail collection from my youth, but then found out the train from the 179 euro startup package is actually quite low quality. It runs very choppy after just 2 months. Adding cheap trains to starter packages (made in china?) will turn people down. The BR89 metal train that used to be standard in m-rail start packages was high quality and still runs after decades!
I've also bought some 2nd hand digital trains since they are cheaper than much of the new trains from retail and went to a big 2nd hand model train market. The volumes there are huge.
(side note: the volume of the video is a bit low)
Hello and thanks for your comment! You are hitting the views folks are expressing, which prompted this video- the lower quality of the starter/basic trains, the high cost of the better/more deluxe dominant lines, and the now increasing used/secondary market. We blame the manufacturers, but they follow these trends I mention and go where the market seems to evolve, for good or bad.
Ave AD, well, that would be a topic for next Friday ... but I will not write my fingers bloody about it ... I do my Model train Hobby for a very long time ... and a hobby is a luxury occupation ... have fun
Merely a statement of this same trend after seeing it on other hobbies I was in after hearing folks grumbling about how the train hobby is changing... especially the American and UK elements of the hobby.
@@ModelTrainOutsider yours is one more trend for me since I am in the model train hobby over 50 years, so i have seen a lot of them ....... I got my first trend when I was 7 years old (1972): Ac vs Dc or market Lider vs the rest or Metall vs Plastik and so on ... and expensive was it always ... but we had a long life quality ... I still have a transformer from the first layout of my father (about 1965) and it still works ... can not say this about the newer ones since 3 already has stop working ... BUT I am having fun anyway ... Luma
@@LumaMoba Well, my hobbies have varied... I still have yearnings for most, but budget for 1.
Some very interesting thoughts. I think that when people get into a hobby with the intent to make money they miss out on the enjoyment of the hobby. Most of the people I know in the hobby are in the hobby for the enjoyment. And they are not in it to make money. Of course another issue is what happens to our trains when our time here is over. But that is a topic for another discussion. Thanks Anthony.
Well, this more about why companies change from providing the usual to the old guard, then switch to the gimmicks and fancier, pricer product, even when it leads a large loyal group out in the cold or stuck with higher prices.
Hi Anthony.
I'm not rich but I have found a hobby that I can finance if I'm careful.
I've had hobbies that have been very expensive when I was working. Used to scuba dive all over the world couldn't do that now. Golf tried that no good at it.😒
Seen one of your comments where he said it's only a hobby, no it's not. It's a stress reliever and a fantastic way to meet nice people.
However these big firms know how to make money from us and we all fall into their trap.
Thanks Anthony great vlog buddy.
.... Pete....
I caddied at the top local club here (site of several PGA and US National Championships over the years- last one in 1986), so I learned to hate golf. lol This video was simply my curiosity at how this trend I discuss occurs in every collector hobby. Status Quo (for a long time) ---> Event causes sudden influx ---> Major Industry change to specialty/high-end designs and more expensive product with less "basic" new stuff.
You are spot on with your comments on hobbies. By the way like you I follow a number of UK model railway channels. Bill from California
I went from Germany, then added UK, now following a lot of American... just digging the international vibe of trains. Thanks for watching!
Thank you for engaging with the UK, we love having the US and Canada with us.👍
Once the investors get involved it kills the existing hobby market. My father was one of the most prestigious postage stamp dealers in the UK. Prices went crazy when the investors got involved encouraged by some of the less scrupulous dealers. To me what makes railways different is it isn’t just the models it’s the scenery, buildings, electronics, etc. That’s what the hobby is all about. You don’t need to buy the special edition $500 dollar plus locomotive. Hornby is still producing a Railroad range
Indeed... seen too many hobbies become investment games and not hobby trade.
Interesting thoughts !!! I can only agree from a model cars collector, buyer and seller standpoint as I am still very new to the model train hobby.
Hi Tom, I did not mention model cars or die cast hobbies (or Lego, or others), but I am not surprised. I am sure if I did further research into other hobbies, I would see this trend in those collectible hobbies, too. It just seems predictable to happen... but not when.
Very true words Anthony,
Limited edition or limited number runs absolutely infuriating as people buy them to sell on ebay at double the price.
Some people want highly detailed models with sound that doesn't come cheap sadly but for me im happy with hobby range locos and few mid range locos with sound.
All the best to you and Joyce.
It's neither a pro nor con for me, it is just the recognition of something I have seen in various hobbies and it follows the same pattern. More a curious observation. I tried to be very neutral and not make it the argument about pricing or the controversies. I am saving controversies for the next video.
Today's Platinium Premium range is tomorrow's Hobby crap. Maybe. 😉 #coldtake
Very insightful Anthony my friend i am guilty of being a collector mainly die cast cars and mattel have cornered the collector market well. Its only self restraint that keeps me from buying every new collector model the bring out.
As for model rail, the improvements (Bells and Whistles) really add something to the hobby but im happy with DC and directional lighting the details they produce now are a vast improvement but with a hefty tag i agee completely.
I guess what I was doing was, after hearing a lot of videos on a multitude of channels complain about costs, the loss of cheaper base models in lieu of the highly-detailed digitals, etc., I was merely trying to say this has happened in every hobby centered on collecting. It is a curiosity to me, as I had seen it develop in other hobbies, and now this one.
Status Quo -----> Sudden Influx and Growth of Hobbyists ----> Market responds with new, fancier, gimmickier and more expensive stuff and old guard grumble.
Lather- rinse-repeat.
Preach it from the rooftops Anthony ❤!!!
LoL I really wasn't preaching, Eric. :) Just pointing out an evolution I have now seen in 4 straight hobbies, all 10-15 years apart.
@@ModelTrainOutsider I too have seen the same things. The one that disappointed me the most was the comic speculation of the late ‘90s. The guys in three piece suits buying five copies of issue one, then not buying issue two. It hurt the comic industry. Prices on old comics went stagnant, with exception of the oldest ones. I will still buy comics and read them. Just like I will continue to buy model trains.
@@acrranscaleandlifejourney4330 Yep, toys, cards, comics all became "investments" and not entertainment.
@@ModelTrainOutsider I will enjoy the things that I buy and play with forever 🥰
His tall enough he don't need to go on the rooftop...lol
And as people seak a cheaper solution, The second hand market goes up and up
Indeed, as I did mention how this filters down.
Hi Anthony,
Yes thats the way I came back to trains the new tec with Dcc and sound a bit different from my kid experience but also YT had a big part to play just seeing them running ignited it again. An interesting take on the big bosses but yes your right they are in it to make money so we will just have to see how it all pans out in the future but well done needed saying.
Cheers Robert.
I, too, like the gimmicks. There have been a lot of complaints on channels about the hobby changing and getting more expensive with less lower-end product. I was merely pointing out how this current situation is identical to the trends other hobbies had in the past... it is evolution, for good or for bad.
@@ModelTrainOutsider Its life I think everything now gets more expensive all the time and not just in hobbys lets hope the bubble does not burst.
Cheers Robert.
Ah yes..."limited edition" has a lot to answer for.
"Limited edition"... "highly detailed"... "expert level..." I merely point out that what some folks are complaining about in the hobby is a pattern oft-repeated... for good or for bad.
what we need is UBIT- universal basic income for trains! i'm waiting for a politician who has the ball bearings to commit to this issue.
That's a whole different argument. There are so many other issues in any hobby, I wanted to keep it focused on discussing this event I see happen over and over in collectible hobbies- a period of static-sum existence- a sudden influx of new consumers- a rise in gimmicks and shift to the deluxe/fancy over the common and basic- even if it seems to force the old guard out or put them low on priority. The trend does not dictate ALL aspects of the hobby, but it does dominate the other aspects.
Baby boomers aging created increased model train folks. My beef is manufacturers not recognizing undecorated equipment sells out too fast and supply is too low.
Funnily enough, the two biggest sales booms in model trains in the USA were not us Boomers. They were in 1946-1950... the generation before boomers, and 2020-2023, mostly fueled by GenX and GenY. Baby boomers do comprise the largest seme t of hobbyists, but GenX and GenYmay be the majority now.
Can’t say I disagree with you, I find that I just disengage and try and be happy with what I have (I’ve been lucky enough to have been in the hobby for over 40 years so have picked up stuff when the opportunity arose). I feel for the people trying to get into the hobby now, I certainly can’t afford pretty much anything anymore besides the occasional lucky second hand find. I think I’ve noticed more and more people focus on other parts of the hobby (such as the more creative aspects, such as modelling and scratchbuilding) as things get harder for the majority.
I was personally not trying to judge one way or the other... not saying it is right or wrong. I have been in various hobbies and seen this exact same phenomenon happen, so I found it curious. A lot of folks out there grumbling about the sudden change in the hobby... extravagant and expensive new stuff... lack of lower-priced options on primary market. For good or ill, this seems to be a definitive occurrence in collector-based hobbies.
@@ModelTrainOutsider Yeah, I totally get that, I thought your neutral observation was well founded. I’m not sure if it follows but I also think most hobbies as they change and evolve (as is inevitable) always leave people behind and those that who may have been within the hobby for years may start to feel that they no longer belong (to the community at least) and either become independent or leave it altogether. I’ve noticed this with miniature wargaming with the rise of 3D printing and the types of games being played. I’m not judging the change, its governed by far larger forces than me (as you intimate in your video) but I no longer see myself and interests in the current state of the hobby so I’ll just carry on without a community. Model railroading is going through this as well as we’ll see not just the products change but also the demographic
@@grumbeast Absolutely. All hobbies evolve and evolve differently... tech, designs, etc. all change, and those even filter into the trend I mention.
I have to correct you Anthony...it's a oval not a circle haha lol kidding buddy.
Interesting views .you always put a good prospective on things.
Watch last 20 seconds of video I'm just uploading.
There's something that might interest you there.
Email if interested bud.
WIll do... and technically... my first set was a circle... and now it is a giant "C". lol
Haha OK you win lol
i cant hear a word your saying and i have my sound full blast
It is a bit quieter, Dwight, but it plays on my phone and TV fine enough.