Great Video! Some corrections, Brightline and the Florida East Coast Railroad aren’t owned by the same company. However., they used to be along time ago before Brightline even began operating. Brightline os owned by the Florida East Coast Industries and the Florida East Coast railroad is owned by Grupo Mexico. Brightline simply has a leasing agreement with their tracks. The original plan for Florida HSR was to be with the Bombardier Jet train. It later got switched for conventional electric traction due to the Authority wanting to operate at 186mph between Orlando and Miami.
I was reading about Grupo Mexico while researching this. I'm not sure why I forgot that when I got around to writing the script. Having trackage rights would have been easier to explain!
@@davidjackson7281 Grupo Mexico bought FEC Railway from Florida East Coast Industries in 2017. Brightline was and is a subsidiary of Florida East Coast Industries, a holding company owned by Fortress Investment Group. It is a completely legitimate corporate structure.
I will be forever ashamed of humanity for thinking that turbine powered high-speed trains were ever a good idea. And then, proved wrong, still doing it over and over again. 😡
Thanks for another interesting post. As a foreign observer of US rail developments i find it refreshing that you highlight average speed figures rather than motive power top speeds. The first step to cutting journey times is often to eliminate the slow speed constraints on a given route with upgrading switch speeds and easing track curvature usually delivering bigger savings per buck than another Xmph at full thrash.
Yeah, top speed is pretty unimportant to me, and to most passengers, I would imagine. I've seen several foreign implementations touting their 350km/h top speed when they're only averaging 150.
LOVE IT! I hope you can keep making these city pairs/corridors or other content you enjoy making not just following the algorithm. Keep up the awesome work!
I pay attention to analytics to tweak things, but never let trends dictate my content, so no worries there. That's why I only do ad revenue, no sponsorships or Patreon. Keeps me independent.
Another great video. One minor correction: Grupo Mexico has owned the Florida East Coast Railway since 2017. Brightline is owned by Florida East Coast industries, a subsidiary of Fortress Investment Group. BL has a track sharing agreement with the freight railroad between Miami and Cocoa. I think BL paid for the cost of of restoring the second main track the entire distance The second track was removed years ago as part of a physical plant rationalization program that was instituted before Amtrak was created (in 1971). At that time, FEC no longer had any passenger trains.
The alignment they favor currently is a little weird. I was having a difficult time figuring out what they were planning there. It seems like the portion along Taft Vineland Rd. will need to be elevated. That's about 2 1/2 miles. Seems like they'll need a similar structure on the Tampa end about half as long. Parts of I-4 are still ready to go, but especially on the Orlando end, they have structures they'll need to replace.
@@LucidStew Of course the simplier, direct southern route from the airport to Tampa got complicated by the alternative longer, slower, more expensive northern route to connect with SunRail, the convernton center and Universal Studios and then perhaps Disney.
@davidjackson7281 Northern route is being done in partnership with multiple governments, so that will surely grease the road. Yeah, I know that's not the correct metaphor.
Regarding brightline and sea level rise...well, the Florida East Coast Railroad used to run the overseas railroad to Key West. Maybe they can just run the Oveseas Railroad 2 at high speed from Cocoa to Miami. :P
@@LucidStew The FEC runs along some of the highest land in Florida, the first mile or two inland on the mainland is the highest elevation before the swamps of the interior. If you don't want to flood, build next to the railway!
I believe the station at Orlando Int. was built for the original high speed rail line but never used so Brightline just had to get their tracks to it which no doubt saved them a lot of money and time.
Sounds like the airport had some money into accommodating it earlier on, but didn't start construction until 2017. It's a gigantic terminal that Brightline only occupies about 20% of. Fascinating piece of speculative building since the airport authority started it before Brightline ever carried a passenger.
@@LucidStew with the disovlvation of what was called the last mile connection to the resorts i mean all of them with all the bus connections the airport was first intention was to bring in sunrail for what was called the orlAndo loop where brightline goes to the airport and sunrail gets from the airport to the attractions the that was 2020-2021ish until the orlando city commision was split down the middle on yes or no ..but now it is 2024 and there is new blood in acouple of the seats and well brought it up again but but this time brightline was going to help finance and help plan the line around town and desinate the third spot at the airport for the sunrail orlando loop but the best idea that come together fo all is for brightline to just go around the city all together to reach i-4 just east of polk counth line in osceloa county then use the right of way to tampa but now there is a knink in the works and that is lakeland has now started commuter services with ovelo airlines and unforunte the airport in lakeland is 6 plus miles away from i4
Amtrak runs between Orlando & Miami on a more direct route via Sebring, which could (maybe) be re-engineered to have more grade separation, vs. the new Brightline route via Ft. Pierce, Melbourne & Cocoa. Their new Orlando - Cocoa segment is missing an important station stop for tourists wanting to visit NASA at Cape Canaveral. Their West Palm - Orlando segment has no intermediate stops planned, at least for now.
@@LucidStewI believe they already own land for the potential Cocoa station. It's between the Walmart and Orlando line junction if you look on a map. I think they're using it for tie storage right now. Have also heard they're considering a station in the Ft. Pierce or Stuart area.
@@bistro-tat Yeah, Brightline's corporate philosophy seems to be "line and most important stations first, let the smaller stations follow as infill once the local community leaders see the train run past and start offering to help to get it to stop".
@@LucidStew There's a MyNews13 article about it entitled "Brightline land purchase could indicate future Cocoa station down the tracks" from '22 I think I can't link without the comment getting eaten by spam filters.
Nice thought experiment and kudos for the research into the proposed extension to Tampa. I worked on this project from 2016 until retiring last year. The groundwork for all of this started before Florida HSR. (See FOX.) Same cast of characters throughout. All I can say is there were a specific set of circumstances that aligned like a combination safe that made this happen (much to the surprise of those involved, including me). Those circumstances have changed. So much so I highly doubt the Tampa leg will happen...at least not as proposed.
We're currently looking at 3 rail lines with high speed, or close, potential. The extension to Tampa being one. That makes it that much more interesting to keep track of because the overall action on CAHSR and BLW are minimal on a week-to-week basis. As theorized in the video, 125mph with Chargers might be "close enough" to what a true high speed train could do given the route. Because of that, I'm really interested to see how it turns out even if it isn't quite as fast as it could be.
@@LucidStew I spent a decade “boots on the ground” in American intercity pax rail. For two decades before that I was involved in the advocacy side of the industry. What I found while on the advocacy side was a very “hot” and “cold” separation. Advocates want and push for high speed trains. On the supply and operators’ side it’s a different story. When actual operators of high speed networks hear the sincere pitches for same on American soil they nod politely in public but laugh their heads off in private. Our current system of conventional trains would never pass muster in those places. If we cannot run conventional trains without looking like a third world country how do you expect to trains with a much higher set of tolerances? Brightline looks to close that gap but it’s still a large delta from tier 1 to tier 2 speeds. And speaking of Brightline, it was reiterated recently that it will take Orange County, Florida, “ten years” to get from the airport to the convention center and tourist areas. “Ten years” in politics is 15-20 years for the rest of us. Brightline will not wait that long, believe that. Whatever their plan B is should come to light after the extension to MCO is up and running.
my son works for brightline now it will happen for sure but they are tring to figure the best route to link up everything now exspecialy with the new player in the mix lakeland international airport which is on the southside of lakeland and the route proposed is running down i-4 they are tring to point out a secondary route that runs from orlando through winter haven down the over used csx amtrac line which needs alot of help but is the best option to reach lakeland linder inter
@@jenniferboyle9855 If that’s the case then the likelihood of getting to Tampa becomes that much lower. The reason for Brightline’s success in connecting SoFlo to MCO in a reasonable amount of time with a reasonable amount of money was the limited number of stakeholders needing to be satisfied. Now with the Orlando city fathers, the theme parks, and NOW the Lakeland airport all wanting a piece of the action then the price climbs out of reach. All the stupid money flying around right now comes to an end eventually.
@@jenniferboyle9855 I can see no reason for a stop at the Lakeland airport. But this is what happens when public money enters the mix: anyone with a political string to pull starts pulling. This has the deleterious affect of bloating the price to the point of nothing happening. Orlando’s insistence of going to the convention center had already doubled Brightline’s original build price. Yes, I saw early on an alternative wherein they cut a deal with FDOT and CSX like done with FECR to upgrade the existing track between Taft and Tampa. Not ideal but doable.
I am from South Florida and I think the current route makes a lot of sense but the entire stretch along the East Coast of Florida on the existing FEC corridor is a upgraded modern higher speed regional rail route. The FEC corridor built out over 100 years ago passes through the center of every coastal city and town so it can’t be beat for higher speed regional rail. For true high speed rail from Orlando to Miami the best grade separated route is the Florida Turnpike which has the minimum number of interchanges especially compared to interstate I-95. The I-4 corridor from Orlando to Tampa should be built so speed can be upgraded to higher speed. Florida interstates and Turnpike system is very level and usually quite straight the highest point in the whole state is just a bit over 300 feet or about 100 meters elevation
I might do a video about both Brightline and an HSR line in Florida at some point. I doubt Brightline would do it, and the state already rejected HSR, so seems like it wouldn't happen. I guess it depends on what the ridership is like once BL gets service to Orlando going. HSR to Tampa would seem redundant assuming BL expands there, but maybe it could continue on to Jacksonville from Orlando and hook up with the Southeast Corridor there, and ultimately Atlanta some time far into the future.
High speed rail will NOT happen in Republican Florida as long as Brightline is successful.. A conservative state will never supplant a viable private rail passenger operation with a tax supported public HSR system like California is unsuccessfully attempting to develop. Having said that, you are correct in virtually everything you said about the feasibility and desirability of the Turnpike option.
@@michaeljones7927HSR wont happen in any State regardless of their politics including California which will be a major bust. Read the National Environmental Policy Act or NEPA and that is why any transportation projects that accepts in part public monies or uses Eminent Domain (see Kelo vs. The City of New London) face complications. Even the Northeast Corridor will never be true high speed rail because of the limitations in the Act. Any politician that says it will be, is lying to you as usual regardless of party.
As you suggested, I briefly examined NEPA, and also Kelo v. City of New London (to refresh my memory). I'm not sure what you're asserting regarding either CAHSR or Brightline or HSR generally, or the acquisition of private property for rail right-of-way through eminent domain procedures. Could you please clarify your assertions. It is very important for all of us who are interested in improved Intercity passenger rail service to understand what problems there are in the development of HSR. Thank you for your contribution to this important discussion. Let's continue the dialogue so that this channel can incorporate your insights into future videos on HSR. I'm sure Lucid Stew would appreciate your input.
As a Floridian at the time and one that talked to a councilmen of Orlando around 2002 he pointed out that they passed the original amendment in 2000 by in some cases lying to voters about funding for the rail and where it would go. Including the number of stops and intended routes. Afterward they worked to "spread the truth" which amounted to them telling half truths (lies) of their own.
Good work on this. I will point to (doubtless beyond the scope of interest here) the political battles that ensued with the HSR amendments to the Florida constitution. You kind of wave topped it but for those who may not realize, this amendment, heavily financed by key interests groups and driven through the somewhat "loose" amendment process in Florida, left no room for legislative action. In other words, it didn't allow for any negotiation, was an unfunded mandate, and used some really piss poor projections on costs and benefits that wouldn't stand up to cursory review. Voters readily rejected it next election cycle as the citizenry became fully aware of what that mandate entailed. It was an easy kill. This eventually created the motivation for changing the entire amendment process in Florida to prevent any future attempt to bypass the legislature and "sneak" a pet project or cause into the constitution. We owe this HSV effort for an improved State constitutional process here in Florida. Gov Scott's later rejection of nailing the State budget to the coffin of HSV, was a brave political move. It would have been far easier just to let it go and avoid the political and personal abuse he received (Charlie Crist attempted to use this in the following election cycle but got his butt handed to him, voters thoroughly rejecting the attempt). The reality is that the terms outlined in this deal by the Obama Admin were simply unacceptable and would have had a major impact on the States financials with little to nothing in return. Obviously other States agreed as they too rejected the funding...well, except California which is lead by people who cannot seem to add, subtract, or compute simple interest. All of this has lead to an opportunity for Brightline who actually put a good business case together and seem to by following it because they want to make a little money. I'm excited by this and have watched the construction along 528 and down the coast with interest. I will admit a concern that the Tampa-Orlando leg may not get built because of Orlando politics playing games with the project. No doubt Tampa (where I live) will likely play politics with the project as well but we will see as soon as Orlando gets it's act together.
Thanks for expanding on that. I came to similar conclusions based on the 2004 vote, the initiative reform, and also my own experience with the pitfalls of the referendum process in California. Also being aware that the money CAHSR got(from Florida) came with requirements that really messed things up for a while. However, I will say that the amounts Florida was going to get compared to the cost make it look like a really good proposition compared to CAHSR. Tampa-Orlando is not really an HSR ideal being that they're only 85 miles apart, but its the system that would build out to that is going to absorb the future growth. Look at how Brightline is being embraced. Ridership is good, areas up and down the east coast are lobbying for stations. Now imagine if it were twice as fast! Yeah, you have a public obligation, but you have a public obligation when building a freeway and since we're used to those, they just seem to get built. I think people focus too much on the start and don't look enough at the end. The U.S. is not Europe, but there are places where European style rail could work. Florida is one because the population centers are fairly dense and not that spread out. HSR has transformed the way people move in Europe. Short-haul flights almost gone. Transit flourishing, improved walkability, better land usage. These are things that you cant build into a ticket price. Just like interstates benefit us in ways that our various specific fees, tolls, and taxes don't cover.
@@LucidStew it will be interesting to see how Brightline West works out. This will certainly be a project more HSR appropriate. My bet is that Brightline West will be in operation before the current CASHR is complete…
@@thomaswilson3437 Yeah, I'm in the area and really interested in the commission of the entire thing from start to finish, so its the project I'm looking forward to most. As of right now, I would assume BLW will be running before CAHSR Merced-Bakersfield, but we'll see how that works out over the next 5-10 years. It always amazes me the time scales we're talking about on these projects...
Hey pal Lucid, have you done a video on Caltrain, or is that not big enough to warrant a video in and of itself? (I'm just wondering why the electrification is taking so long, lol). Your analisys seems pretty meaty (as any good stew ought to be), which is always welcomed 👍
Not really touching that outside of its involvement with CAHSR. My basic understanding is that they were already running behind on the electrification, got absolutely hammered by COVID(70% ridership drop), and were facing a lot of uncertainty(as in whether or not they'd exist) until getting bailed out by the state government last month.
Great video, do Cocoa to Jacksonville in the future! On the Florida HSR amendments, I have read that it is believed that many of the people who voted "No" on the second amendment thought they were voting "Yes" on the same amendment from a few years before, there were questions on its wording, then Gov. Jeb Bush (R) was responsible for the second anti-HSR amendment. Then a few years later Gov. Charlie Christ (R) famously hugged President Obama at an event celebrating the Tampa-Orlando HSR project being federally funded, and that help lose Christ the primary to Rick Scott, who then axed it after his election in the Tea Party Midterm of 2010. The 2010 HSR project was going to be electric (the Bombardier JetTrain was dead by then after finding no buyers) and be partially funded, built, and operated by a private partner, of which there were several, including Virgin Trains from the UK.
The margins were hugely different and something like 50% more people voted Yes in 2004 than in 2000, but No was not that different. I have no doubts that there WERE manipulations of the constitutional initiative process, as I have seen it happen many times here in California. However, I interpreted the evidence the way I did because of the vote margins and because the two initiative reforms were partially in response to the 2000 initiative(no last minute initiatives and supermajority imposed). On the JetTrain issue, that was suppose to be operating by 2009 and without the 2004 referendum it probably would have happened with that train. I didn't see mention of a specific electric trainset in the RoD for the 2009 amendment, but I don't think it would have made a discernable difference in travel times. In 2009 if it was a tilter, almost surely would have been an Acela Express. If not, it would have been limited to lower speeds anyway by the curves on the Orlando half. One issue is that Orlando and Tampa just aren't that far apart, which is why a Charger is likely going to do about as well as anything else.
One of the biggest problems I see with improving speeds b/w Cocoa and Miami is the fact that any grade separation project is probably going to suspend both passenger and freight service during construction. A lot of them will have to be rail over road due to the line's proximity to US1 and the large intersections they have to cross. Even if they did maintain service, it would add considerable cost and time to the projects. BL would need to be making several Scrooge McDuck's worth of money and expect to pull in a few more to make any significant improvements. Alternatively, they could figure out how to press the Cities Skylines pause button to make it instantaneous. 😂
😂 The political pressure is already building, so maybe they will have to separate at some choice locations, perhaps where they have room to temp around. They'll probably get RAISE money regularly for it, so they might not even have to pay for it depending on how much they're pressured to get done. That said there are several hundred at-grade intersections, so it would indeed be a tremendous project to separate completely.
@@LucidStew If they're lucky they'll have a steady stream of funded projects to make a well oiled grade separating machine out of. But yeah, seems like with the sheer number of crossings they'd have to end up rebuilding the entire line. It would be cool to see them attempt to recoup some of the cost by copying the Japanese and build rentable real estate into the structures. You can often find shops underneath rail lines built right into the structures there. Probably not possible on this side of the Pacific, but an interesting idea nonetheless.
At 80 mph average speed for an express between Miami and Orlando, Brightline will be the fastest train in America. Amtraks Acela averages only 70 mph. between Boston and Washington.
It is important to clarify one issue that comes up continuously in the comments on this video and all other videos dealing with Brightline Florida, and that is the role of real estate. Virtually everyone erroneously asserts that real estate development is the reason for Brightline's existence and the basis for its success. That is NOT the truth. To start with, the amount of real estate is exaggerated. Furthermore, any real estate associated with Brightline is not owned by Brightline. It's owned by Florida East Coast Industries, Brightline's parent company. The only instance of a a large railroad related real estate development in Miami is the twin Park Line Towers, constructed above Brightline's downtown passenger station by FEC INDUSTRIES. That property was sold soon after completion of the project. The proceeds from that sale probably were used to help fund Brightline's construction program, but there is no evidence that real estate development will provide Brightline with a continuing "subsidy". Fortress Investment Group has pursued the Brightline project because Wes Edens, co-founder of Fortress, believes in HSR, and wants to see the U.S. develop improved Intercity passenger rail systems.
Also worth pointing out Brightline passenger rail is set to break even way earlier than projected. Yeah, I think they're definitely looking far broader than some real estate development in Florida. If their rhetoric is to be believed, they want to build between every city pair in the country that makes sense. Brightline West is supposed to be the test case in many respects, which is one reason I find that particular project so interesting.
And just what is wrong with gas turbine powered high speed trains? TGV 001 reached 198 miles per hour during one test run and repeatedly ran at 186 miles per hour during other tests. The Bombardier Jet Train wasn't a failure. It simply wasn't put into revenue service because there was no rail line for it to run on, except the electrified NEC. A gas turbine train can run a lot faster than a diesel and it can use green hydrogen.
One commenter on this channel just asserted in error that Brightline Florida is "highly subsidized". That is NOT true. The Brightline project has been financed using private activity bonds, which are like tax exempt industrial development bonds. And yes, Brightline is not true high speed rail, but it's better than anything Amtrak has to offer, including service on the NEC. If the State of Florida wants to dramatically increase train speeds between Miami and Orlando, it should undertake a grade separation program using public funds. The Florida East Coast Railway was there long before any of the cities and towns on the east coast even existed (except for St. Augustine) and there is no reason that it should be obligated to bear any of the cost of building overpasses and underpasses.
@@LucidStew the full line is supposed to be miami to orlando to tampa to jacksonville with local stops in ft.laud west palm stuart coco lakeland daytona beach to jaxs connecting airports and city centers respecivly. i personaly beleive that amtrac is giving some major push back in someway or form cause that would leave amtrac at the ga fla. line basicly jaxs and transfering to brightline for faster service in florida but if they can look at the bigger picture here i think it might get amtrac some leverage to get to someother regions to work on and upgrade them
Yeah, I think CAHSR will at least finish Merced to Bakersfield at some point. That would be about 125-130mph average, 220mph top speed. Brightline West will be pretty quick from the Apple Valley station to Las Vegas. Should average 105-115mph with a top speed of 186-200mph. That should also happen.
What are the odds anything from your videos is actually implemented? I like HSR but it seems like you have to do 1000steps to accomplish it and the US can't get past step 10
I'd say Brightline from Orlando to Tampa is nearly certain unless their business model goes terribly awry in the next 10 years. Do you mean like the other corridor videos and the city pair videos? Pretty low on those, and even if it happened, you're probably looking at 30-40 years minimum since most of those haven't even started the process.
@@LucidStew just seems depressing making videos about something that should be a thing but will never happen and if it did happen it would take 40years and probably not be as good as intended.
I think the US needs a federal body for railroad track planing, upgrade and maintenance, similar to the Federal Highway Administration. Waiting for freight operators to upgrade their tracks for passengers has not and will not work, they do not have any real reason to do that. We see all the states coming up with their own plans, yet they never move beyond the study phase, waiting for federal grands, with California the only exception. Similar to private investors. Their plans relay on federal grands, because they aren't able to accumulate enough capital to start construction. So why not build it and have it owned by who is actually paying for it and let private operators use it for a fee together with Amtrak, to make sure there is at least one operator on that route
@@TheRandCrews The FRA is just safety regulations. And while they do some planing, in most cases they just declare some corridors, they do not build or own any tracks. And that's the problem, there is no body with the clear mandate to build or upgrade tracks
Federally funded highways are built, maintained, and owned by the states, not the federal government. You're advocating a passenger rail system that is owned by the federal government. That is what Amtrak is in the Northeast (the NEC between Boston and Washington DC), despite the pretense that it is a "corporation" (the NRPC).
When Fifth Amendment Rick canceled the high speed rail project he already had investments in the corporation that would become Brightline. The unscrupulous SOB should be in prison not in office.
When it comes to making trains profitable, I was wondering what you think of the Hong Kong model where they let commercial buildings (shops etc.) and appartment buildings pay commission to the railway company due to the geographical advantage. Advantage of this is that you skip government bureaucracy and the train company gets a stable continuous income stream. Also instead of selling tickets you could also use subscriptions at a much lower rate than the ticket price. This way you encourage people to use the train because the more they use it the cheaper the costs per journey. Moreover this also stabilizes the income stream. Please let me know what you think about this.
@@LucidStew I'm referring to what is being explained in this video. Hong kong has a Farebox Recovery Ratio of 185%. This is due to the fact that stores and appartment buildings in a certain radius pay commission to the train company due because they have a geographical advantage since they are right next to it. th-cam.com/video/ELy9fOX8vtc/w-d-xo.html Edit: Again I'm just wondering what you think about this and what the pro's and cons of this idea could be. On paper this all looks and sounds nice. But thats of course the case with so many things. :) Curious what you think about it and thanks for your content, keep up the good work. :)
@@rubenvanderlaan4234 This might be relevant for urban rail transit in a super dense urban area like Hong Kong, where the CCP rules, but it has absolutely no relevance to intercity rail in the United States. What does your inquiry have to do with Brightline Florida, a privately owned and operated rail service?
@@rubenvanderlaan4234 That's kind of what they're doing. I don't think they use any sort of proximity pricing, but they are leasing out portions of their properties to tenants. Every station has some other building on site. Usually its a condo tower with some bottom floor retail. A government in the U.S. is going to have a hard time doing that. One issue with government housing in the U.S. in the past is that it has tended to turn into ghettos, so that generally avoided. But, I don't see why a government couldn't make a special tax zone around stations. However, they'd probably want to not do that initially as it would discourage use. Another thing is, there are very few places in the U.S. that have the housing pressures or density of Hong Kong. There's still the choice to simply move further out into the suburbs rather than pay some sort of transit tax.
@@michaeljones7927 when building railway you automatically try to stimulate transit oriented development and brightline is known for buying a lot of real estate around the train stations. So the model could be introduced in the US as well. At least in theory. And the comment is indeed a bit off topic. Like I said im curious what he thinks and I was hoping the question would reach him if I posted it under his most recent video. :)
IMHO, advocating electric passenger trains from a global warming prospective is just not effective. Remote work, home entertainment, remote meeting, virtual tours are much cheaper options.
Don't look at me, I'm just here for the infrastructure. :) There are still plenty of jobs and activities that require a physical presence. If we get to a point where tech has replaced the need or desire to go anywhere... let's just say I don't think that's something we should be aspiring to.
Brightline is not "High Speed Rail" ....it is Higher Speed than normal because segments can get up to 120 mph but must stay in the 70 to 90 mph range in the Southern parts of the line. With more stations to the south, it is pointless to go at higher speeds because it takes miles to power up and down so a conventional speed makes sense. It's real selling point is convenience and luxury of avoiding vehicle choked interstates and other roads.
Brightline is not described as HSR in the presentation. It is the corridor that is described as HSR by the federal government. In fact, in the presentation at about the 8:00 mark I point out that Brightline's Miami to Tampa average speed should be about 80mph, which I then describe as "...hardly HSR as the rest of the world defines it".
11:30 wouldn’t put too much stock into worrying about Florida being underwater in 100 years. Florida WAS underwater, just 100 years ago. All of the settlement in the southern 2/3rds of that state is built up on marshes. It’s more likely that the water never comes back.
The graphic I used is from the Miami Dade County website and is meant for future planning. Conservative sea level rise predictions are 2 feet above current by 2100 in Florida.
I disagree. If the trains are regularly used by people who would otherwise drive, that's success. Faster trains would certainly increase that likelihood, but so would more frequent trains and cheaper tickets.
I think if you had something like this as regional rail in all the routes that Amtrak serves, and some decent true HSR express lines tying it all together, you'd have something competent and useful to the masses.
@@gregory596 the people who drive won't ride at less than 80. Less speed less demand less frequency. Slow NM Railrunner at $2.50 all day has very few passengers so cost not really the most concern.
I don t understand, Florida is totally flat right? And how can some nation are drilling hard rock mountain and buliding real hsr whit almost zero problem, but the USA is still block on disel pawer train. Looks the past year the elettrified the old line near me (23km in total) because the older disel trains poruced a lots of pollution.
Brightline have nice trains but how the heck is 120mph high speed? we had faster than that in the UK in the 70's and we never had true high speed rail and diesel trains have never been high speed, fastest passenger speed our 125's went was 125mph and 148mph when they pushed them to full power in testing. other countries are faster which puts anything under 150mph a bunch of blah
110+ is considered high speed by the federal government in relation to the various high speed rail corridors in the country. Internationally, Brightline, of course, does not qualify as HSR. This video is more about the corridor than Brightline as a service.
I will be forever ashamed of humanity for ever thinking that turbine powered high-speed trains were a good idea. And then, proved wrong, still doing it over and over again. 😡
Its just in a very narrow crack between the best diesel-electrics and electric. Its too narrow of a use case to make business sense, which I assume is why it keeps failing.
I'm going through the 10 FRA HSR corridors + NEC in alphabetical order. Southeast, which includes Georgia, will be last. At current pace I would expect that in 4 or 5 months.
Great Video! Some corrections, Brightline and the Florida East Coast Railroad aren’t owned by the same company. However., they used to be along time ago before Brightline even began operating. Brightline os owned by the Florida East Coast Industries and the Florida East Coast railroad is owned by Grupo Mexico. Brightline simply has a leasing agreement with their tracks.
The original plan for Florida HSR was to be with the Bombardier Jet train. It later got switched for conventional electric traction due to the Authority wanting to operate at 186mph between Orlando and Miami.
I was reading about Grupo Mexico while researching this. I'm not sure why I forgot that when I got around to writing the script. Having trackage rights would have been easier to explain!
Man you guys really know your shit.
Sounds like FEC industries, other than a spin-off from Grupo Mexico, is a corporate paper-parent of BL?
@@davidjackson7281 Grupo Mexico bought FEC Railway from Florida East Coast Industries in 2017. Brightline was and is a subsidiary of Florida East Coast Industries, a holding company owned by Fortress Investment Group. It is a completely legitimate corporate structure.
I will be forever ashamed of humanity for thinking that turbine powered high-speed trains were ever a good idea. And then, proved wrong, still doing it over and over again. 😡
Thanks for another interesting post. As a foreign observer of US rail developments i find it refreshing that you highlight average speed figures rather than motive power top speeds. The first step to cutting journey times is often to eliminate the slow speed constraints on a given route with upgrading switch speeds and easing track curvature usually delivering bigger savings per buck than another Xmph at full thrash.
Yeah, top speed is pretty unimportant to me, and to most passengers, I would imagine. I've seen several foreign implementations touting their 350km/h top speed when they're only averaging 150.
@@LucidStewYou're right, Mr Stew. All that matters is ELAPSED TIME....origin to destination. That means bursts of speed on the NEC are irrelevant.
LOVE IT! I hope you can keep making these city pairs/corridors or other content you enjoy making not just following the algorithm. Keep up the awesome work!
I pay attention to analytics to tweak things, but never let trends dictate my content, so no worries there. That's why I only do ad revenue, no sponsorships or Patreon. Keeps me independent.
Youre the only one who covers the financial side of appropriations and budgeting stuff. Amazing stuff!
It's important if anyone wants to get stuff done. :)
@@LucidStew do you offer paid membership?
Another great video. One minor correction: Grupo Mexico has owned the Florida East Coast Railway since 2017.
Brightline is owned by Florida East Coast industries, a subsidiary of Fortress Investment Group. BL has a track sharing agreement with the freight railroad between Miami and Cocoa. I think BL paid for the cost of of restoring the second main track the entire distance The second track was removed years ago as part of a physical plant rationalization program that was instituted before Amtrak was created (in 1971). At that time, FEC no longer had any passenger trains.
I won't be surprised if the Orlando Airport to I4 segment costs as much as the rest of the route to Tampa.
Yes weavng through Orlando won't be quick or cheap
The alignment they favor currently is a little weird. I was having a difficult time figuring out what they were planning there. It seems like the portion along Taft Vineland Rd. will need to be elevated. That's about 2 1/2 miles. Seems like they'll need a similar structure on the Tampa end about half as long. Parts of I-4 are still ready to go, but especially on the Orlando end, they have structures they'll need to replace.
@@LucidStew Of course the simplier, direct southern route from the airport to Tampa got complicated by the alternative longer, slower, more expensive northern route to connect with SunRail, the convernton center and Universal Studios and then perhaps Disney.
@davidjackson7281 Northern route is being done in partnership with multiple governments, so that will surely grease the road.
Yeah, I know that's not the correct metaphor.
@@gregory596 Yeah, I was going to say... I'm pretty sure its "grease the big, beautiful freeway!" :D
Regarding brightline and sea level rise...well, the Florida East Coast Railroad used to run the overseas railroad to Key West. Maybe they can just run the Oveseas Railroad 2 at high speed from Cocoa to Miami. :P
Finally some motivation for grade separation. :D
@@LucidStew The FEC runs along some of the highest land in Florida, the first mile or two inland on the mainland is the highest elevation before the swamps of the interior. If you don't want to flood, build next to the railway!
I believe the station at Orlando Int. was built for the original high speed rail line but never used so Brightline just had to get their tracks to it which no doubt saved them a lot of money and time.
Sounds like the airport had some money into accommodating it earlier on, but didn't start construction until 2017. It's a gigantic terminal that Brightline only occupies about 20% of. Fascinating piece of speculative building since the airport authority started it before Brightline ever carried a passenger.
@@LucidStew with the disovlvation of what was called the last mile connection to the resorts i mean all of them with all the bus connections the airport was first intention was to bring in sunrail for what was called the orlAndo loop where brightline goes to the airport and sunrail gets from the airport to the attractions the that was 2020-2021ish until the orlando city commision was split down the middle on yes or no ..but now it is 2024 and there is new blood in acouple of the seats and well brought it up again but but this time brightline was going to help finance and help plan the line around town and desinate the third spot at the airport for the sunrail orlando loop but the best idea that come together fo all is for brightline to just go around the city all together to reach i-4 just east of polk counth line in osceloa county then use the right of way to tampa but now there is a knink in the works and that is lakeland has now started commuter services with ovelo airlines and unforunte the airport in lakeland is 6 plus miles away from i4
Another great vid! Cant wait for the Lincoln->Omaha video next!
Amtrak runs between Orlando & Miami on a more direct route via Sebring, which could (maybe) be re-engineered to have more grade separation, vs. the new Brightline route via Ft. Pierce, Melbourne & Cocoa. Their new Orlando - Cocoa segment is missing an important station stop for tourists wanting to visit NASA at Cape Canaveral. Their West Palm - Orlando segment has no intermediate stops planned, at least for now.
They have shown a willingness to add stations, and apparently they're looking at the Cocoa area. I'd assume it hinges on the development opportunity.
@@LucidStewI believe they already own land for the potential Cocoa station. It's between the Walmart and Orlando line junction if you look on a map. I think they're using it for tie storage right now. Have also heard they're considering a station in the Ft. Pierce or Stuart area.
@@bistro-tat Yeah, Brightline's corporate philosophy seems to be "line and most important stations first, let the smaller stations follow as infill once the local community leaders see the train run past and start offering to help to get it to stop".
@@bistro-tat Oh, nice. I was actually looking at that very spot trying to figure out where they might put it.
@@LucidStew There's a MyNews13 article about it entitled "Brightline land purchase could indicate future Cocoa station down the tracks" from '22 I think I can't link without the comment getting eaten by spam filters.
As another user said, Brightline leases the track from Cocoa to Miami.
Nice thought experiment and kudos for the research into the proposed extension to Tampa. I worked on this project from 2016 until retiring last year. The groundwork for all of this started before Florida HSR. (See FOX.) Same cast of characters throughout. All I can say is there were a specific set of circumstances that aligned like a combination safe that made this happen (much to the surprise of those involved, including me). Those circumstances have changed. So much so I highly doubt the Tampa leg will happen...at least not as proposed.
We're currently looking at 3 rail lines with high speed, or close, potential. The extension to Tampa being one. That makes it that much more interesting to keep track of because the overall action on CAHSR and BLW are minimal on a week-to-week basis. As theorized in the video, 125mph with Chargers might be "close enough" to what a true high speed train could do given the route. Because of that, I'm really interested to see how it turns out even if it isn't quite as fast as it could be.
@@LucidStew I spent a decade “boots on the ground” in American intercity pax rail. For two decades before that I was involved in the advocacy side of the industry. What I found while on the advocacy side was a very “hot” and “cold” separation. Advocates want and push for high speed trains. On the supply and operators’ side it’s a different story. When actual operators of high speed networks hear the sincere pitches for same on American soil they nod politely in public but laugh their heads off in private. Our current system of conventional trains would never pass muster in those places. If we cannot run conventional trains without looking like a third world country how do you expect to trains with a much higher set of tolerances? Brightline looks to close that gap but it’s still a large delta from tier 1 to tier 2 speeds. And speaking of Brightline, it was reiterated recently that it will take Orange County, Florida, “ten years” to get from the airport to the convention center and tourist areas. “Ten years” in politics is 15-20 years for the rest of us. Brightline will not wait that long, believe that. Whatever their plan B is should come to light after the extension to MCO is up and running.
my son works for brightline now it will happen for sure but they are tring to figure the best route to link up everything now exspecialy with the new player in the mix lakeland international airport which is on the southside of lakeland and the route proposed is running down i-4 they are tring to point out a secondary route that runs from orlando through winter haven down the over used csx amtrac line which needs alot of help but is the best option to reach lakeland linder inter
@@jenniferboyle9855 If that’s the case then the likelihood of getting to Tampa becomes that much lower. The reason for Brightline’s success in connecting SoFlo to MCO in a reasonable amount of time with a reasonable amount of money was the limited number of stakeholders needing to be satisfied. Now with the Orlando city fathers, the theme parks, and NOW the Lakeland airport all wanting a piece of the action then the price climbs out of reach. All the stupid money flying around right now comes to an end eventually.
@@jenniferboyle9855 I can see no reason for a stop at the Lakeland airport. But this is what happens when public money enters the mix: anyone with a political string to pull starts pulling. This has the deleterious affect of bloating the price to the point of nothing happening. Orlando’s insistence of going to the convention center had already doubled Brightline’s original build price. Yes, I saw early on an alternative wherein they cut a deal with FDOT and CSX like done with FECR to upgrade the existing track between Taft and Tampa. Not ideal but doable.
I am from South Florida and I think the current route makes a lot of sense but the entire stretch along the East Coast of Florida on the existing FEC corridor is a upgraded modern higher speed regional rail route. The FEC corridor built out over 100 years ago passes through the center of every coastal city and town so it can’t be beat for higher speed regional rail. For true high speed rail from Orlando to Miami the best grade separated route is the Florida Turnpike which has the minimum number of interchanges especially compared to interstate I-95. The I-4 corridor from Orlando to Tampa should be built so speed can be upgraded to higher speed. Florida interstates and Turnpike system is very level and usually quite straight the highest point in the whole state is just a bit over 300 feet or about 100 meters elevation
I might do a video about both Brightline and an HSR line in Florida at some point. I doubt Brightline would do it, and the state already rejected HSR, so seems like it wouldn't happen. I guess it depends on what the ridership is like once BL gets service to Orlando going. HSR to Tampa would seem redundant assuming BL expands there, but maybe it could continue on to Jacksonville from Orlando and hook up with the Southeast Corridor there, and ultimately Atlanta some time far into the future.
High speed rail will NOT happen in Republican Florida as long as Brightline is successful.. A conservative state will never supplant a viable private rail passenger operation with a tax supported public HSR system like California is unsuccessfully attempting to develop. Having said that, you are correct in virtually everything you said about the feasibility and desirability of the Turnpike option.
@@michaeljones7927HSR wont happen in any State regardless of their politics including California which will be a major bust. Read the National Environmental Policy Act or NEPA and that is why any transportation projects that accepts in part public monies or uses Eminent Domain (see Kelo vs. The City of New London) face complications.
Even the Northeast Corridor will never be true high speed rail because of the limitations in the Act. Any politician that says it will be, is lying to you as usual regardless of party.
@@spuds6423 Thank you for your insightful comment.
As you suggested, I briefly examined NEPA, and also Kelo v. City of New London (to refresh my memory). I'm not sure what you're asserting regarding either CAHSR or Brightline or HSR generally, or the acquisition of private property for rail right-of-way through eminent domain procedures. Could you please clarify your assertions. It is very important for all of us who are interested in improved Intercity passenger rail service to understand what problems there are in the development of HSR. Thank you for your contribution to this important discussion. Let's continue the dialogue so that this channel can incorporate your insights into future videos on HSR. I'm sure Lucid Stew would appreciate your input.
I love that it was a constitutional amendment
As a Floridian at the time and one that talked to a councilmen of Orlando around 2002 he pointed out that they passed the original amendment in 2000 by in some cases lying to voters about funding for the rail and where it would go. Including the number of stops and intended routes. Afterward they worked to "spread the truth" which amounted to them telling half truths (lies) of their own.
Yeah, I figured it was probably politics as usual.
Let Brightline do a very unfriendly takeover of Amtrack !! Let the hammer fall !!!
Good work on this. I will point to (doubtless beyond the scope of interest here) the political battles that ensued with the HSR amendments to the Florida constitution. You kind of wave topped it but for those who may not realize, this amendment, heavily financed by key interests groups and driven through the somewhat "loose" amendment process in Florida, left no room for legislative action. In other words, it didn't allow for any negotiation, was an unfunded mandate, and used some really piss poor projections on costs and benefits that wouldn't stand up to cursory review. Voters readily rejected it next election cycle as the citizenry became fully aware of what that mandate entailed. It was an easy kill. This eventually created the motivation for changing the entire amendment process in Florida to prevent any future attempt to bypass the legislature and "sneak" a pet project or cause into the constitution. We owe this HSV effort for an improved State constitutional process here in Florida. Gov Scott's later rejection of nailing the State budget to the coffin of HSV, was a brave political move. It would have been far easier just to let it go and avoid the political and personal abuse he received (Charlie Crist attempted to use this in the following election cycle but got his butt handed to him, voters thoroughly rejecting the attempt). The reality is that the terms outlined in this deal by the Obama Admin were simply unacceptable and would have had a major impact on the States financials with little to nothing in return. Obviously other States agreed as they too rejected the funding...well, except California which is lead by people who cannot seem to add, subtract, or compute simple interest. All of this has lead to an opportunity for Brightline who actually put a good business case together and seem to by following it because they want to make a little money. I'm excited by this and have watched the construction along 528 and down the coast with interest. I will admit a concern that the Tampa-Orlando leg may not get built because of Orlando politics playing games with the project. No doubt Tampa (where I live) will likely play politics with the project as well but we will see as soon as Orlando gets it's act together.
Thanks for expanding on that. I came to similar conclusions based on the 2004 vote, the initiative reform, and also my own experience with the pitfalls of the referendum process in California. Also being aware that the money CAHSR got(from Florida) came with requirements that really messed things up for a while.
However, I will say that the amounts Florida was going to get compared to the cost make it look like a really good proposition compared to CAHSR. Tampa-Orlando is not really an HSR ideal being that they're only 85 miles apart, but its the system that would build out to that is going to absorb the future growth. Look at how Brightline is being embraced. Ridership is good, areas up and down the east coast are lobbying for stations. Now imagine if it were twice as fast! Yeah, you have a public obligation, but you have a public obligation when building a freeway and since we're used to those, they just seem to get built. I think people focus too much on the start and don't look enough at the end. The U.S. is not Europe, but there are places where European style rail could work. Florida is one because the population centers are fairly dense and not that spread out. HSR has transformed the way people move in Europe. Short-haul flights almost gone. Transit flourishing, improved walkability, better land usage. These are things that you cant build into a ticket price. Just like interstates benefit us in ways that our various specific fees, tolls, and taxes don't cover.
@@LucidStew it will be interesting to see how Brightline West works out. This will certainly be a project more HSR appropriate. My bet is that Brightline West will be in operation before the current CASHR is complete…
@@thomaswilson3437 Yeah, I'm in the area and really interested in the commission of the entire thing from start to finish, so its the project I'm looking forward to most. As of right now, I would assume BLW will be running before CAHSR Merced-Bakersfield, but we'll see how that works out over the next 5-10 years. It always amazes me the time scales we're talking about on these projects...
Can you do a city pair. Investigation between los angeles and phoenix with a stop in palm springs?
it's on the list!
Hey pal Lucid, have you done a video on Caltrain, or is that not big enough to warrant a video in and of itself? (I'm just wondering why the electrification is taking so long, lol). Your analisys seems pretty meaty (as any good stew ought to be), which is always welcomed 👍
Not really touching that outside of its involvement with CAHSR. My basic understanding is that they were already running behind on the electrification, got absolutely hammered by COVID(70% ridership drop), and were facing a lot of uncertainty(as in whether or not they'd exist) until getting bailed out by the state government last month.
Great video, do Cocoa to Jacksonville in the future! On the Florida HSR amendments, I have read that it is believed that many of the people who voted "No" on the second amendment thought they were voting "Yes" on the same amendment from a few years before, there were questions on its wording, then Gov. Jeb Bush (R) was responsible for the second anti-HSR amendment. Then a few years later Gov. Charlie Christ (R) famously hugged President Obama at an event celebrating the Tampa-Orlando HSR project being federally funded, and that help lose Christ the primary to Rick Scott, who then axed it after his election in the Tea Party Midterm of 2010. The 2010 HSR project was going to be electric (the Bombardier JetTrain was dead by then after finding no buyers) and be partially funded, built, and operated by a private partner, of which there were several, including Virgin Trains from the UK.
The margins were hugely different and something like 50% more people voted Yes in 2004 than in 2000, but No was not that different. I have no doubts that there WERE manipulations of the constitutional initiative process, as I have seen it happen many times here in California. However, I interpreted the evidence the way I did because of the vote margins and because the two initiative reforms were partially in response to the 2000 initiative(no last minute initiatives and supermajority imposed).
On the JetTrain issue, that was suppose to be operating by 2009 and without the 2004 referendum it probably would have happened with that train. I didn't see mention of a specific electric trainset in the RoD for the 2009 amendment, but I don't think it would have made a discernable difference in travel times. In 2009 if it was a tilter, almost surely would have been an Acela Express. If not, it would have been limited to lower speeds anyway by the curves on the Orlando half. One issue is that Orlando and Tampa just aren't that far apart, which is why a Charger is likely going to do about as well as anything else.
One of the biggest problems I see with improving speeds b/w Cocoa and Miami is the fact that any grade separation project is probably going to suspend both passenger and freight service during construction. A lot of them will have to be rail over road due to the line's proximity to US1 and the large intersections they have to cross. Even if they did maintain service, it would add considerable cost and time to the projects. BL would need to be making several Scrooge McDuck's worth of money and expect to pull in a few more to make any significant improvements. Alternatively, they could figure out how to press the Cities Skylines pause button to make it instantaneous. 😂
😂 The political pressure is already building, so maybe they will have to separate at some choice locations, perhaps where they have room to temp around. They'll probably get RAISE money regularly for it, so they might not even have to pay for it depending on how much they're pressured to get done. That said there are several hundred at-grade intersections, so it would indeed be a tremendous project to separate completely.
@@LucidStew If they're lucky they'll have a steady stream of funded projects to make a well oiled grade separating machine out of. But yeah, seems like with the sheer number of crossings they'd have to end up rebuilding the entire line. It would be cool to see them attempt to recoup some of the cost by copying the Japanese and build rentable real estate into the structures. You can often find shops underneath rail lines built right into the structures there. Probably not possible on this side of the Pacific, but an interesting idea nonetheless.
At 80 mph average speed for an express between Miami and Orlando, Brightline will be the fastest train in America. Amtraks Acela averages only 70 mph. between Boston and Washington.
Acela Express averages 82mph between Boston and NYC.
@@LucidStewUnless I am mistaken, it's DC to NY that averages 80+mph. A minor boo-boo?
It is important to clarify one issue that comes up continuously in the comments on this video and all other videos dealing with Brightline Florida, and that is the role of real estate. Virtually everyone erroneously asserts that real estate development is the reason for Brightline's existence and the basis for its success. That is NOT the truth. To start with, the amount of real estate is exaggerated. Furthermore, any real estate associated with Brightline is not owned by Brightline. It's owned by Florida East Coast Industries, Brightline's parent company. The only instance of a a large railroad related real estate development in Miami is the twin Park Line Towers, constructed above Brightline's downtown passenger station by FEC INDUSTRIES. That property was sold soon after completion of the project. The proceeds from that sale probably were used to help fund Brightline's construction program, but there is no evidence that real estate development will provide Brightline with a continuing "subsidy". Fortress Investment Group has pursued the Brightline project because Wes Edens, co-founder of Fortress, believes in HSR, and wants to see the U.S. develop improved Intercity passenger rail systems.
Also worth pointing out Brightline passenger rail is set to break even way earlier than projected. Yeah, I think they're definitely looking far broader than some real estate development in Florida. If their rhetoric is to be believed, they want to build between every city pair in the country that makes sense. Brightline West is supposed to be the test case in many respects, which is one reason I find that particular project so interesting.
And just what is wrong with gas turbine powered high speed trains? TGV 001 reached 198 miles per hour during one test run and repeatedly ran at 186 miles per hour during other tests. The Bombardier Jet Train wasn't a failure. It simply wasn't put into revenue service because there was no rail line for it to run on, except the electrified NEC. A gas turbine train can run a lot faster than a diesel and it can use green hydrogen.
One commenter on this channel just asserted in error that Brightline Florida is "highly subsidized". That is NOT true. The Brightline project has been financed using private activity bonds, which are like tax exempt industrial development bonds. And yes, Brightline is not true high speed rail, but it's better than anything Amtrak has to offer, including service on the NEC. If the State of Florida wants to dramatically increase train speeds between Miami and Orlando, it should undertake a grade separation program using public funds. The Florida East Coast Railway was there long before any of the cities and towns on the east coast even existed (except for St. Augustine) and there is no reason that it should be obligated to bear any of the cost of building overpasses and underpasses.
So what was the 5th city that they wanted to connect to?
I never did find that out, but I think it was supposed to Fort Myers
@@LucidStew the full line is supposed to be miami to orlando to tampa to jacksonville with local stops in ft.laud west palm stuart coco lakeland daytona beach to jaxs connecting airports and city centers respecivly.
i personaly beleive that amtrac is giving some major push back in someway or form cause that would leave amtrac at the ga fla. line basicly jaxs and transfering to brightline for faster service in florida
but if they can look at the bigger picture here i think it might get amtrac some leverage to get to someother regions to work on and upgrade them
COOL..
Such an EXCELLENT and informative video. This information is delicious and nutritious. I learned something today. I thank you for that.
Do you think we will ever have a true high speed rail alignment system somewhere in these United States?
Yeah, I think CAHSR will at least finish Merced to Bakersfield at some point. That would be about 125-130mph average, 220mph top speed. Brightline West will be pretty quick from the Apple Valley station to Las Vegas. Should average 105-115mph with a top speed of 186-200mph. That should also happen.
What are the odds anything from your videos is actually implemented? I like HSR but it seems like you have to do 1000steps to accomplish it and the US can't get past step 10
I'd say Brightline from Orlando to Tampa is nearly certain unless their business model goes terribly awry in the next 10 years. Do you mean like the other corridor videos and the city pair videos? Pretty low on those, and even if it happened, you're probably looking at 30-40 years minimum since most of those haven't even started the process.
@@LucidStew just seems depressing making videos about something that should be a thing but will never happen and if it did happen it would take 40years and probably not be as good as intended.
@@shake4259 nope, I'm enjoying myself.
@@LucidStew And we're enjoying the results of your passionate efforts. And most of us are not pessimistic about the future of HSR.
Pls talk about the southwest HSR now (or just georgia)
What about high speed service to Jacksonville?
That should be in the cards after Tampa, although that will likely be of the Brightline 125mph diesel-electric variety.
I think the US needs a federal body for railroad track planing, upgrade and maintenance, similar to the Federal Highway Administration. Waiting for freight operators to upgrade their tracks for passengers has not and will not work, they do not have any real reason to do that. We see all the states coming up with their own plans, yet they never move beyond the study phase, waiting for federal grands, with California the only exception. Similar to private investors. Their plans relay on federal grands, because they aren't able to accumulate enough capital to start construction. So why not build it and have it owned by who is actually paying for it and let private operators use it for a fee together with Amtrak, to make sure there is at least one operator on that route
Isn’t that what the FRA is
@@TheRandCrews The FRA is just safety regulations. And while they do some planing, in most cases they just declare some corridors, they do not build or own any tracks. And that's the problem, there is no body with the clear mandate to build or upgrade tracks
Federally funded highways are built, maintained, and owned by the states, not the federal government. You're advocating a passenger rail system that is owned by the federal government. That is what Amtrak is in the Northeast (the NEC between Boston and Washington DC), despite the pretense that it is a "corporation" (the NRPC).
Wish it stopped at Port Canaveral.
When Fifth Amendment Rick canceled the high speed rail project he already had investments in the corporation that would become Brightline. The unscrupulous SOB should be in prison not in office.
When it comes to making trains profitable, I was wondering what you think of the Hong Kong model where they let commercial buildings (shops etc.) and appartment buildings pay commission to the railway company due to the geographical advantage. Advantage of this is that you skip government bureaucracy and the train company gets a stable continuous income stream.
Also instead of selling tickets you could also use subscriptions at a much lower rate than the ticket price. This way you encourage people to use the train because the more they use it the cheaper the costs per journey. Moreover this also stabilizes the income stream.
Please let me know what you think about this.
I don't understand how they could make unrelated properties pay commission. Are you saying like a proximity tax that goes to the transit authority?
@@LucidStew I'm referring to what is being explained in this video. Hong kong has a Farebox Recovery Ratio of 185%. This is due to the fact that stores and appartment buildings in a certain radius pay commission to the train company due because they have a geographical advantage since they are right next to it. th-cam.com/video/ELy9fOX8vtc/w-d-xo.html
Edit: Again I'm just wondering what you think about this and what the pro's and cons of this idea could be. On paper this all looks and sounds nice. But thats of course the case with so many things. :)
Curious what you think about it and thanks for your content, keep up the good work. :)
@@rubenvanderlaan4234 This might be relevant for urban rail transit in a super dense urban area like Hong Kong, where the CCP rules, but it has absolutely no relevance to intercity rail in the United States. What does your inquiry have to do with Brightline Florida, a privately owned and operated rail service?
@@rubenvanderlaan4234 That's kind of what they're doing. I don't think they use any sort of proximity pricing, but they are leasing out portions of their properties to tenants. Every station has some other building on site. Usually its a condo tower with some bottom floor retail.
A government in the U.S. is going to have a hard time doing that. One issue with government housing in the U.S. in the past is that it has tended to turn into ghettos, so that generally avoided.
But, I don't see why a government couldn't make a special tax zone around stations. However, they'd probably want to not do that initially as it would discourage use. Another thing is, there are very few places in the U.S. that have the housing pressures or density of Hong Kong. There's still the choice to simply move further out into the suburbs rather than pay some sort of transit tax.
@@michaeljones7927 when building railway you automatically try to stimulate transit oriented development and brightline is known for buying a lot of real estate around the train stations. So the model could be introduced in the US as well. At least in theory.
And the comment is indeed a bit off topic. Like I said im curious what he thinks and I was hoping the question would reach him if I posted it under his most recent video. :)
IMHO, advocating electric passenger trains from a global warming prospective is just not effective. Remote work, home entertainment, remote meeting, virtual tours are much cheaper options.
Don't look at me, I'm just here for the infrastructure. :) There are still plenty of jobs and activities that require a physical presence. If we get to a point where tech has replaced the need or desire to go anywhere... let's just say I don't think that's something we should be aspiring to.
Brightline is not "High Speed Rail" ....it is Higher Speed than normal because segments can get up to 120 mph but must stay in the 70 to 90 mph range in the Southern parts of the line. With more stations to the south, it is pointless to go at higher speeds because it takes miles to power up and down so a conventional speed makes sense. It's real selling point is convenience and luxury of avoiding vehicle choked interstates and other roads.
Brightline is not described as HSR in the presentation. It is the corridor that is described as HSR by the federal government. In fact, in the presentation at about the 8:00 mark I point out that Brightline's Miami to Tampa average speed should be about 80mph, which I then describe as "...hardly HSR as the rest of the world defines it".
@@LucidStew Not in yours but in others on Yootoob... And by other commenters.
11:30 wouldn’t put too much stock into worrying about Florida being underwater in 100 years. Florida WAS underwater, just 100 years ago. All of the settlement in the southern 2/3rds of that state is built up on marshes. It’s more likely that the water never comes back.
The graphic I used is from the Miami Dade County website and is meant for future planning. Conservative sea level rise predictions are 2 feet above current by 2100 in Florida.
True success for passenger rail must average 80 mph.
I disagree. If the trains are regularly used by people who would otherwise drive, that's success.
Faster trains would certainly increase that likelihood, but so would more frequent trains and cheaper tickets.
I think if you had something like this as regional rail in all the routes that Amtrak serves, and some decent true HSR express lines tying it all together, you'd have something competent and useful to the masses.
@@gregory596 the people who drive won't ride at less than 80. Less speed less demand less frequency. Slow NM Railrunner at $2.50 all day has very few passengers so cost not really the most concern.
@@LucidStew Agree! You do such a great job on all of your videos.
@@davidjackson7281 I've never ridden the New Mexico Rail Runner. I've driven from Orlando to Tampa a bunch of times.
I don't recommend it.
Compare to China's HSR is far a part.
I don t understand, Florida is totally flat right? And how can some nation are drilling hard rock mountain and buliding real hsr whit almost zero problem, but the USA is still block on disel pawer train. Looks the past year the elettrified the old line near me (23km in total) because the older disel trains poruced a lots of pollution.
Brightline have nice trains but how the heck is 120mph high speed? we had faster than that in the UK in the 70's and we never had true high speed rail and diesel trains have never been high speed, fastest passenger speed our 125's went was 125mph and 148mph when they pushed them to full power in testing. other countries are faster which puts anything under 150mph a bunch of blah
110+ is considered high speed by the federal government in relation to the various high speed rail corridors in the country. Internationally, Brightline, of course, does not qualify as HSR. This video is more about the corridor than Brightline as a service.
I will be forever ashamed of humanity for ever thinking that turbine powered high-speed trains were a good idea. And then, proved wrong, still doing it over and over again. 😡
Its just in a very narrow crack between the best diesel-electrics and electric. Its too narrow of a use case to make business sense, which I assume is why it keeps failing.
Pls talk about the southwest HSR now (or just georgia)
I'm going through the 10 FRA HSR corridors + NEC in alphabetical order. Southeast, which includes Georgia, will be last. At current pace I would expect that in 4 or 5 months.
Pls talk about the southwest HSR now (or just georgia)
Pls talk about the southwest HSR now (or just georgia)