I totally agree with Stanley and I'm going to give my reasons, which have taken me a lot of thought. 1. There is a double bottom in both interest rates and inflation, now both can only go up. 2. The price of energy is at wave 2 lows for crude oil and at wave C (capitulation) for natural gas. Uranium is beginning its very long-term wave 3. This is an indicator that the industry is going to be reactivated. Remember that the markets are ahead of events. 3. Commodities are already ultra-cheap and the food industry is at a minimum. 4. The US and Europe must start working and stop using financialization and living for free, but they do not have abundant natural resources. 5. They must liquefy debt, the alternative path has no practical or political sense. Either they have a reserve currency and a deficit or they start working, they cannot do both at the same time because price competitiveness and monetary strength are mutually exclusive. Greetings!
What many do not seem to understand is that the 10yr+ bond is the backbone of bank guarantees. When the FED reduces the yield, what it is trying to do is to reflate those guarantees and reduce the likelihood of defaults in the financial system. Yields soaring do the opposite....
I totally agree with his yield assessment. The expected outcome of the FED pivot would be falling yields, especially in the 10 yr + bonds and especially with the FED exerting yield curve control. The estimated curve depression is circa 100 bps. The market clearly decided against that which shows the incapacity of the FED to exert the control it once did. That is affecting the Bond market but also REITs and other stock classes show it clearly. But what of the S&P 500 ? The logic should be the same. The current S&P500 yield is 1,2%, the lowest in 20 yrs. A 10yr+ bond yield hike, in my mind, equals a stock market "correction".
It's amazing how the smartest people I follow in economics and investing have all got it wrong so far. I truly believe they are correct, but the opportunity cost has slayed me.
They are not wrong, they are selling when they said that market is strong to get best price for stocks they already have, no one will go to tv and buy stocks after, it will be dumbest thing ever, so he will sell after this as other his friends and vice versa, when he will say that market is weak he wants to buy cheaper stocks. Sell when market is strongest and buy when market is weakest, then you will sell at top and buy at bottom. That what he is doing.
This is my only investing channel in youtube. I Try to keep things simple. Hard times to keep money in bonds after selling company but just cant go 100% sp500 right now p/e 30.
I have a $190,000 portfolio that I've been working on for 5 years, but lately the market volatility scares me. Is the bull market over? cos I'm thinking of moving my investments to safe-havens assets like gold and silver, or are there better options?
Yes, tbills. The market has been broadening out and probably will continue to. Tech is taking a breather while industrials, small cap, Banks should be pretty good going forward
You're better off utilizing an advisor, whether you're looking to grow or reserve your money, or how much risk you can handle to meet your financial goals
The issue is people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence get burnt. Ideally, advisors are perfect reps for investing jobs, and at first-hand experience, my portfolio has yielded over 300% since 2020 pandemic to date.
Karen Lynne Chess is the licensed FA I use. Just google the name. You’d find necessary details to work with and set up an appointment. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
Druck has been the most clear voice of reason after you sven of course. I appreciate these videos
Thanks. Excellent summary.
You and Lyn Alden are the only people who’s videos I watch every time.
Your explanation, clarity and guidance is wonderful
Keep it up.
I totally agree with Stanley and I'm going to give my reasons, which have taken me a lot of thought. 1. There is a double bottom in both interest rates and inflation, now both can only go up. 2. The price of energy is at wave 2 lows for crude oil and at wave C (capitulation) for natural gas. Uranium is beginning its very long-term wave 3. This is an indicator that the industry is going to be reactivated. Remember that the markets are ahead of events. 3. Commodities are already ultra-cheap and the food industry is at a minimum. 4. The US and Europe must start working and stop using financialization and living for free, but they do not have abundant natural resources. 5. They must liquefy debt, the alternative path has no practical or political sense. Either they have a reserve currency and a deficit or they start working, they cannot do both at the same time because price competitiveness and monetary strength are mutually exclusive. Greetings!
Thank you for summary!
What many do not seem to understand is that the 10yr+ bond is the backbone of bank guarantees. When the FED reduces the yield, what it is trying to do is to reflate those guarantees and reduce the likelihood of defaults in the financial system. Yields soaring do the opposite....
Thomas Sowell: “Stupid people can cause problems, but it usually takes brilliant people to create a real catastrophe.”
I totally agree with his yield assessment. The expected outcome of the FED pivot would be falling yields, especially in the 10 yr + bonds and especially with the FED exerting yield curve control. The estimated curve depression is circa 100 bps. The market clearly decided against that which shows the incapacity of the FED to exert the control it once did. That is affecting the Bond market but also REITs and other stock classes show it clearly. But what of the S&P 500 ? The logic should be the same. The current S&P500 yield is 1,2%, the lowest in 20 yrs. A 10yr+ bond yield hike, in my mind, equals a stock market "correction".
It's amazing how the smartest people I follow in economics and investing have all got it wrong so far. I truly believe they are correct, but the opportunity cost has slayed me.
They are not wrong, they are selling when they said that market is strong to get best price for stocks they already have, no one will go to tv and buy stocks after, it will be dumbest thing ever, so he will sell after this as other his friends and vice versa, when he will say that market is weak he wants to buy cheaper stocks.
Sell when market is strongest and buy when market is weakest, then you will sell at top and buy at bottom. That what he is doing.
Hit 200k today. I'm really grateful for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 14k in March 2024
Wow that's huge, how do you make that much monthly?
I'm 37 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??
Yeah, since meeting expert Brisa, I now agree that with an expert managing your portfolio, the rate of profit high, with less risk.❤❤
I will advise you stop trading on your own if you keep losing. And i don't trade on my own anymore, I always required help and assistance
She's a licensed broker here in the states.
After i raised upto 125k trading with her, I bought a new house here in the states also paid for my son's surgery (Kelvin) glory to God.
This is my only investing channel in youtube. I Try to keep things simple. Hard times to keep money in bonds after selling company but just cant go 100% sp500 right now p/e 30.
The Feds, ALWAYS wrong. 😂😂
taking the bet that the fed will make the wrong move is so easy
Short bond ? the 10 years ? Because Buffett is rolling on short term Bond < 1 year
Hello Mr. productive
Don't fight the Fed or...
Don't fight the market.
We had inflation because China was shut down simple if open up it'll be ok ❤
House of cards
I have a $190,000 portfolio that I've been working on for 5 years, but lately the market volatility scares me. Is the bull market over? cos I'm thinking of moving my investments to safe-havens assets like gold and silver, or are there better options?
Yes, tbills. The market has been broadening out and probably will continue to. Tech is taking a breather while industrials, small cap, Banks should be pretty good going forward
You're better off utilizing an advisor, whether you're looking to grow or reserve your money, or how much risk you can handle to meet your financial goals
The issue is people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence get burnt. Ideally, advisors are perfect reps for investing jobs, and at first-hand experience, my portfolio has yielded over 300% since 2020 pandemic to date.
@@arlenehill4ril this is the best time to be in the market! who is the advisor guiding you please? in dire need of proper asset allocation
Karen Lynne Chess is the licensed FA I use. Just google the name. You’d find necessary details to work with and set up an appointment. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
Druckenmiller, another salty "superstar".
Peace in the Ukraine, lifting of sanctions and low cost energy slays real inflation. At least, now, there is a chance.
Not really, if trump really does go through with tariffs inflation will be really bad.
Après cette vidéo, mon copain est convaincu que nous pouvons monter notre propre spectacle comique. Je pense que ça vaut le coup d'essayer 🌺
Die Kameradschaft in dieser Gemeinschaft ist spürbar. Es ist klar, dass wir alle gemeinsam nach Wissen streben.💋