Something that wasn't mentioned is why many of the regional and pro independence parties are very unlikely to support a government that includes Vox. Is no so much that they are far right, as some of this parties are close to PP ideologically, but Vox takes a hard line against pro independence movements and the decentralized nature of Spain's governments (autonomías).
....they want to illegalize all parties that support the existence of nations other than Spanish, including PNV which PP wanted to ask support to. Yeah, I guess you can call that a hard line.
Thats the key element There is a right majority in the spanish parliment with 183 seats PP (136) + VOX (33) + JUNTS(7) + PNV(5) + CC(1) + UPN(1) The main divergence between them is nationalism/regionalism.
Not only VOX takes a hard line against pro independence movements and the decentralized nature of Spain's governments. But they also are willing to erease any other Spanish culture different from the Castellana...
@@afriedrich1452don't be fooled by simple media perception, in practical terms a system like this make politics more fluid and dynamic. Things can easily change and parties catering to niche demographics have a significant say in that, a two party system will only lead to stagnation and a sense of being left behind.
People tend to forget that a big part of Basque and Catalan separatists are as nationalist as PP/vox. In some way, they wish these conservative parties won the general elections, so they would have the perfect excuse to start a new campaign for their independence, by using their people's fear of fascism to get their way
@@alegp97shut up, you have no clue of spanish politics. Pedro Sánchez emerged victorious from this polls because he used his clever progapanda to persue many people not to vote to far left parties like Sumar o far right parties likes box. Just like Maccron did against Eric Zèmmour.
As an Italian, seeing the current polical climate in europe Deeply troubles me. Political Chaos was supposed to be OUR Shtick, not everyone else's! This is obviusly plagiarism
Is not plagiarism, European countries faces similar issues. I also want to point that right in Spain is also pro euro and PP is not a right oriented party anymore. Freijol wanted to swift to more center like position
@@TheValdevor this is true. Euroscepticism is not a real political force in Spain. Nevertheless, Vox has been slowly but surely defining its support for Orban’s politics, so I guess that they can’t be ruled out as eurosceptical. They just don’t campaign on it
One thing you're missing big. Of the smaller parties, only CC and UPN support PP. Every other party excluding VOX does not like them, and even the more "right-wing" parties that make up Sánchez's alliance have already rejected not just supporting Feijóo, they rejected even negotiating anything with them. Feijóo really has no way of becoming PM, so it's either Sánchez or new elections
@@МаркОлейник-д2еBecause the PP would almost definitely be forced to give concessions to Vox and the regional parties don't like the centralization Vox proposes. Hell, they even threatened to ban the separatist parties.
@@Besthinktwice There's a chance Sanchez stays even longer though. Unemployment will continue to fall, and his economic management thus far has been decent. 1. Sumar, his main coalition partner will grow (they were formed just months before the election). 2. PP will likely select Ayuso as Feijoo's successor, who is more conservative and hard-line. She will be highly toxic to all traditional left/independent leaning regions. 3. Regionalist independence will likely continue to decline, more votes drift to PSOE, thanks to Sanchez not being so vitriolic and dismissive of regional separatists (ironic that cutting deals with them actually reduces separatist sentiment). 4. Potentially higher turnout as an another mid summer election will be unlikely.
To quote Otto von Bismarck, "I am firmly convinced that Spain is the strongest country of the world. Century after century trying to destroy herself and still no success"
I am missing a few points: - Psoe has won a couple more seats and has stop the trend towards the right that was happening along the year. - Junts has lost seats, much like all the independentist movement in favor of Psoe, so even if they say the will demand a referendum, they are in danger of losing even more seats in a second voting. - PP expected way more seats than the got. - Vox has lost many seats in their hearthlands, in Castilla where they were setting their”pilot flat” (meaning their model).
At the end of the day they are all politicians. Junts will eventually support PSOE as they won't risk losing seats in a second vote or a possible PP+Vox government. However, they are still campaigning; they will first ask for a referendum and play "hard to get" even though they know they won't get it. They have to appeal to their voters before supporting the coalition. Same with PP. They know that PSOE will never abstain, especially considering how bad of an opposition to the government they have been these past four years. They still will ask PSOE to abstain and facilitate a government, just so that they can blame them for the second vote in the campaign if it comes to that.
PP has got all the seats from the crash and dissapearing Ciudadanos. Abascal has told us , he wants to being part of the government at least 4 ministery and a Vice-Presidency, Rajoy, only would give them nothing at all. Feijoo wants Vox hold up them free-tax
Lol, Junts needs VOX in order to start the new Proces that is dead now, btw, so only with the VOX in power, they can movilize people. And get Generalitat from ERC (the left wing separatist group).
With these political parties? I already left the country because its a broken mess. Let them enjoy socialist party government that pacts with secesionists and pro-terrorists. I'm out.
@@emilioperez6888 You got the right idea. Better a so called far-right party like Italy's Melony. If the Socialists win they will restructure Spain like the Soviets didt with the Empire. We all know what happened with the USSR.
To win an election in Spain, you need a majority(176 seats in the parliament), so the Conservative party cannot form a government, even if they have been the most voted. This was already agreed by all the parties in the Constitution.
@@juanquintana6070 They can make a grand colitin and stop being hostages of justice escape person and extremist party Either way as right wing being spanish or catalan or basque nationalist have the mayority and left laws won't pass. So basically PM is president of his gang, band or whatever as Spain is the monarchy and of Sánchez prefer having a crimal in his gang beside to ex ETA criminals, well, I don't see how this can bring any stability, attract any investors.. so far Czechs has just surpassed Spain in numbers, and next will be Poles and Slovenians, and then the rest of Eastern Europe. But, sure, you can fool yourself how this is good as Brits can do the same about Brexit both being in extremist political and legislative instability. And VOX is the same thing as Tory party, antieuropean, centralistic, but really far away of fascism whatsoever, it is funny how you don't get that after this election only Brits praise you here, every German saod what I just said, and Poles ans Czechs came to give their condolencies. As they new where you will get with this politics. Hell, those commies wanted to blackmail Ferrovíal in 21st centrury and free market world. They wanted be the ones to put the price on the product, not the market. I won't even going there how Ms data prestenter is lying about data during the most important debate on the national TV.
It has been actually a victory for Sanchez for he was declared dead after the local elections. Now he only strengthened his position in parliament and got his divided leftwing allies together preventing them from collapsing. Moreover, he's the only able to form alliances with the regional parties since all of them fear and loath Vox. Feijóo was set to win and his failure despite the tremendous growth of his party in seats can cost him his leadership.
I don't agree. That's like saying "0-0 is a victory because the opponent was favourite". Sanchez will either stay PM, give huge concessions to regionalists and be screwed in the next geeral election or there will be a new election soon.
Whats up with such fear of VOX and nothing about Sumar in Spain? (far right) Vox is relatively pro-EU (soft eurosceptic, part of the ECR group within EU? Not hardline spain-xiters) but pro-NATO and seem pretty radically pro-Ukraine (far left) Sumar has multiple parties that are openly against helping Ukraine, against NATO and against free market economy From an outsider view like mine (central europe, former warsaw pact side), Sumar looks like a much bigger threat to basically the absolute basics of the society as we had and have in europe
@@jakubblaha4904you can explain it by their vivid opposition to any regionalist policies in Spain, and their ideological links with Neofrancism wich is a big nono in Modern Spain. The difference is that Sumar is very much so Europe-Friendly, but against any escalations in Ukraine.
Gotta say, a political system like this is probably more democratic than the American two party system. you can actually vote for different degree of left wing or right wing policies. While in US you have Biden and AOC in same party, and Trump and John Kasich in same party (until recently at least)
for me it is similar, in the end they are different parties but in Congress they act as a block, the block of the left and the block of the right, in Spain only the minority independence parties tip the balance.
@@_amelia96 that's a big difference, because in the USA, despite the enormous diversity, there are no regional parties. Furthermore, Sumar is much more left-wing and influential than their American equivalent, the Squad. In other words, Spain's leftmost is to the left of the USA's leftmost.
@@holdenennis Well, I do not know much about the politics of the United States, from the outside it has always seemed to me that in the United States there is no left, only marginal voices within the Democratic Party, which only seem to be important in times of elections but when it comes to governing are relegated, on the side of the Republican Party if it seems to me that the sector more to the right is the one that takes the main role and the moderates are like the relegated. It's just my impression, I don't know if it is.
@@_amelia96 your impression is correct. The Democratic Party machine often works hard to ensure that in some of their primaries where you have a leftist/progressive up against a centrist/moderate, the latter wins. After a Democrat defeat, progressives in their party, whether they were their nominee in that election or not, are always a quick and easy scapegoat for the Party to blame and then even further marginalize.
France and Spain have different Government systems. Spain is a parlamentarian monarchy, where the Parliament has legal and execution powers (and the king is not relevant, with diplomatic powers only), whereas France is a semipresidential republic, where the Parliament has only partial powers and the President is the only one that approves laws. Also France has a decree on which the President can actually implement their own laws without going to the Parliament, which makes the French regime a lot more presidential than it seems at first sight.
The Spanish elections were closely followed here in Chile. Politic analysts think our politicians "mimic" Spanish ones, with a delay... Boric followed Podemos, Kast is following VOX, etc. So this result is interesting as it apparently shows the center in both blocks is pretty strong...our Republicanos (ultra-right, that have become popular lately) were clearly unhappy with the bad results of VOX, the guys that are so toxic for most other parties in Spain, that makes PP's victory look pyrric. I think most people want politicians to negotiate and compromise to actually resolve important social issues, instead of fighting and screaming to appear "stronger". I hope this influences our extremes to start compromising, as our political environment currently is horribly toxic and divisive
Yo también seguí de cerca las vuestras :''). España con Chile y Chile con España. Me gusta mucho Borič, mucho más digno que Pablo Iglesias en mi opinión.
usted omite que la izquierda en España no es la de otros países europeos. Su historia está ciertamente marcada por la política como un fin en sí mismo.
@@alegp97 si la omito es por desconocimiento, la verdad conozco poco la historia politica de España de antes de los 90s, y últimamente solo por su relación con mi país (en especial el surgimiento de Podemos y de VOX). Si me puedes iluminar, feliz
@hectornavassimon7296 si, creo que Boric vio a Iglesias y se dijo a sí mismo que no podía imitarlo en todo jajaja. Voté por él y no me arrepiento, aunque ha sido un gobierno bastante complicado por muchas razones, algunas por culpas propias y otras ajenas...
@@franug El nuestro que se avecina pinta complicadísimo, y es muy probable que tengamos que ir a votar de nuevo en diciembre o enero. Y ya veremos qué pasa entonces :/ Aunque, siendo realistas, Pedro Sánchez no ha perdido nunca, es imbatible.
Just to clarify. The process of investiture works as follows: first, the king has to select a candidate to try and form a government. This candidate has two tries, in the first one, he has to obtain an absolute majority in congress, but in the second one, which takes place two days latter, he only needs a simple majority. What this means is that neither of them actually need the support of Junts, and their abstention would be enough. I know it was explained in the video, but a lot of emphasis was made in the absolute majority part of the voting and I think it might have been a bit misleading.
A completely pointless process because Junts won't abstain from every single vote for the next 4 years. All it does is allow a PM to be chosen and an inevitable early election to be delayed. Simple majority investiture is nonsensical because they still can't govern on important issues. If every single member of Cortes votes, and they fail to get an absolute majority on something like a budget (which is due in 6 months) then it's crisis time. So might as well call an election .. or two, or three, until it's sorted. Learn from the Belgians and Israelis. Minority governments don't survive. Ever.
@@drewmqn No, the vote for candidates in the parliament is done one candidate at a time. After a candidate is proposed, every member of parliament must vote for or against his nomination. Simple majority just means getting more votes in favor than against (but not necessarily more than 50% in favor, which would be an absolute majority).
They shouldn't say it like it in any way. PP stands for Partido Popular, or "Popular Party. So calling them "PP Party" is to essentially say "Popular Party Party". Just call them "PP" or "Popular Party".
The problem with spanish multi party system is that there will never be a clear one party government, and treaties between different parties and ideologies will make slow the governmente-making process
@@hermannsdenkmal theres always been one party governments before in Spain when it was basically a biparty country, and it was terrible for economy and social rights
I´m from Spain, so is the first time that i probably know more than you about a topic of your videos and i can say that this is very good explained, now i trust more in this chanel
With my limited knowledge of this beforehand, basically both main parties gained a bit, especially the PP, but on both sides right wing and left wing parties gained and dropped. So no one has a majority and it’s like stuck in limbo
I think the most likely outcome is Junts abstains in the investiture, thus allowing Pedro Sánchez to become prime minister, in exchange for small concessions (no referendum), like a pardon for Puigdemont. Mostly because, 1- It's near impossible the PSOE accepts a referendum. 2- Even though Junts is a right-wing party, they much rather have the left in the government, as a right-wing government would include Vox, which is strongly against all independence movements, and has promised to ban all regional/independentist parties and eliminate the autonomous communities (greatly reducing the competencies of regions).
The left won, when new elections are held the right will lose all momentum. I've spoken to people knowledgeable on the subject it's more or less a cycle. The left is under threat so elections are held the right fail to win a majority, new elections left win
Siding with PP would maybe be possible, but once you bring VOX into the picture any chance of that happening disappears. No one wants to do business with VOX
PSOE cannot either because their political campaign for decades has been "We will not aligned with separatist" so that would be shooting themselves in the foot. So a referendum is unlikely. Also this video didnt speak about other posibilities like the PNV (a conservative right basque nationalist party) to side with PP and Vox. Although that would be also quite strange but feasible.
Due the corrupt way politics plays in the US the pro business/corporate lobby which would have little electorate support but completely dominates both parties. Remember the US parties are very loose coalitions, no where as internally consistent as other developed countries political parties. Its just formal small parties which don't gain much, the party of the rich gain many many concessions.
That is because despite claiming to be a democracy, the US is at best a failed democracy and getting worse every year. Gerrymandering, first past the post winner takes all. Super PAC s and whatnot. No room for new parties. Everything is corrupt about politics in the US. Our democracies might not be perfect, but at least unlike the USA system of first past the post, our proportional representation guarantees that every vote gets representation and not just the winning share.
Thanks for talking about Spanish politics with a European perspective, cheers from Spain. Quick clarification: as far as I know, the king has to ask the most represented party (in this case the PP) to try and form a government. If they can't, then that task should be handed to the second party (PSOE). But I don't really know what the king will do, honestly.
@@juann1492I think he has to ask the PP first and if they don't have support (which they won't have in the foreseeable future) he'll ask the PSOE. If that fails, we'll repeat elections.
@@OscarGonzalez-ld4np He doesn’t have to ask PP first, the King is at his own discretion to designate the person he thinks most likely to form a government, after conducting talks with the parties. If he thinks Sanchez is the most likely, he could designate Sanchez first. Likely though, he’ll designate Feijoo since PP is largest, but it isn’t guaranteed.
In a way Sanchez is probably the biggest winner, it was predicted that his party was getting totally defeated giving PP an absolute majority, not only did they gain 2 seat ,the coalition of pp and vox was totally avoided and vox lost seats .
Not sure I agree with that .. 2 alternatives as far as I can see .. 1. A very shaky government that is probably going to fall apart allowing PP/Vox to say "hey told you so" 2. Another election allowing PP/Vox to say "realistically we are the only show in town i.e. we are the closest to forming a stable government" So not the drubbing but not a win either ..
The Junts (and the other Catalan nationalist party ERC) were heavily defeated. In fact, nationalist support fell to the lowest level in three decades. This makes the argument for a referendum now untenable (since the electorate pretty much just delivered a mandate for the opposite)
This was due to the parties internal infighting tho. Even the past president in exile told people to not vote leading to Catalans having the lowest turnout rate by a large margin
Doesn't that make them an easy sell for Sanchez to add in his coalition? No referendum but increased decentralization and Puigdemont back in the country.
Que genial, un estudioso de ciencias políticas español, soy de México y me preguntaba ¿Qué es la ultraderecha para los españoles? no hay nada similar acá XD
@@tononanez1601 estudiante de filosofía aquí, sé que no me has pedido a mí que responda pero bueno. en el caso de vox, son anti-feministas y lgbtiq, anti-inmigración, mucho más militaristas -en teoría- que el PP y en el caso de vox, dicen ser liberales, a pesar de que se dediquen a blanquear la dictadura de franco regularmente. también se ponen muy pesados con la unidad nacional.
This video was filmed and scripted like a Mission Impossible movie: "Thought they could have a majority? *NO!* - they need the left-field votes!"-(Hard-zoom)-" _Wait_ ! They're demanding the IMPOSSIBLE!!"-(Double-hard-zoom- _STATISTICS!_ )-"enemy cruiser locking weapons from starboard Captain!-(sry, wrong franchise). A definite step up in the usual political commentary. Very entertaining, bravo Spain!
Hi, guys. Your pronuntiation here is overall quite good, but there are a couple of small points to fix. "Feijóo" and "Sumar" stress the last syllable, not the previous one. In other words, it's "FejiOO" and "SuMAR", instead of "FEijoo" and "SUmar". But other than that, the rest was on point. Keep up the good work.
I'm from the Canary Islands but live in Australia. The Spanish government mailed me out a voting package for the elections. Because I've been away from the Islands for so long, I wasn't confident enough to vote as there were parties I wasn't familiar with.
Correction: in the first vote they have to have absolute majority, but in the second vote, they just need more "ayes" than "nays", so basically Junts can just abstain.
Given the situation, i would argue its tue reverse. In the post election speech, PP looked a bit defeated and the chants of Ayuso, Feijoos biggest rival dosent help, while PSOE looked to be ready to use the momentum for a reelection. And VOX blamed PP for its bad results
Abascal estaba prácticamente llorando. Y la mirada de terror de Feijoo, sabiendo que correría la misma suerte que Casado a manos de Ayuso, daba escalofríos.
@@alejandrosotomartin9720 Pues lo hizo, ahora tiene la fiscalía pidendo la reactivacción de orden de detención en su contra. Pues, Sánchez, vamos. Junts necesita VOX gobernando para que sea losible movilizar lo máximo y empezar de nuevo El Procés 2.0 Esta movilización grande con Sánchez gobernando, pues no sería tan grande, entonces necesita el lobo en la historia, necesita VOX gobernando, claro.
@@s3m1f64 A mí me parecía obvio que muchos escaños de Vox iban a volver al PP. Hay que recordar que Vox sacó muchísimos escaños porque en el momento de las anteriores elecciones el PP estaba desmantelado. Hubo muchísimo voto a Vox que fue un voto de castigo al PP. Es lo mismo que pasó en las primeras elecciones con Podemos, el PSOE estaba hecho unos zorros, pero a las siguientes mucho voto de castigo al PSOE volvió a votarles.
I can tell you Spanish politics is really fun!. Now, the future of Spain depends of an independentist politician who is living outside Spain becase he is wanted by Spanish justice because when he was the President of Catalonia, he created an ilegal referendum of independence from Spain. Then he had to leave Spain in the trunk of a car to cross the border with France because Spanish police was looking for him. Now, the colaboration of his party is fundamental to create a goverment and he is still the boss of this party. Almost everyday, something happens in Spain related to politcs. There are so many points of view in the Spanish society and that's why democracy has a good level here.
That's every country. A governmnet is a thing in it's own right. It only cares for the country, to the extent that it cares at all, for it's own interest.
“The 2 Spains” is a term used to call the two equally and strongly opposed national identities: Unionist vs Separatists. But it’s more than that. A subdivision of that is: Right Unionists, Right Separatists, Left unionists and Left separatists. Unionist can either support the Monarchy (mainly) or a Federation while Left and Right Separatists are Republican and advocate for several regional independent movements (mainly Cataluña and País Vasco, but there are more). All of them fighting it off at the National Parliament. I can confirm Spain has been trying to destroy itself for 500 years but has not managed it. Not even with a bloody CIvil War.
@@ikerb1232 mainly, that causing the right usually rural and left mainly city, nothing to do with separatism, it has to do more with the old liberalism vs conservatism then gone to more republicanism vs monarchism to now mainly progressism vs conservatism, separatism is too small to be a 1 half and doesnt get support from national right nor left
Since no one seems to discuss this: What are the chances of a grand coalition? I'm asking because as a german this reminds me quite a bit of the results of our 2005 federal election where no one had a majority without one universally shunned party. And that ultimately resulted in Merkels first grand coalition. Edit: I just noticed the similarity is even bigger than I first realized because the german 2005 federal election was also: • a snap election • triggered by the left-wing incumbant • because his party wasn't performing well in local elections • had the left coalition cling on to way more votes than polling suggested Just very interesting how similar they are :D
That's not going to happen. German parties are used to cooperating, Spanish parties are not, bipartidism has been the norm for basically most of Spanish democracy (which is very young). It probably doesn't help that in this election, the two parties were going at each other's throat: PP accused the socialists of siding with Basque terrorists, selling Spain to Catalonian separatists, and demonised everything that PSOE had done during the last 4 years, calling it 'Sanchism'; meanwhile, PSOE attacked by saying that they wanted to regress Spain into the dictatorship years by siding with Vox, flaring up tensions in Catalonia and the Basque Country, and abandoning women and LGBT people to the far-right.
@@LordDim1 Nobody took him seriously though. Any leader of PP or PSOE who made a coalition with the other would be eaten alive by their own party supporters. It's like football, you are either Real Madrid or Barcelona.
Yeah, as other people pointed out, grand coalitions in Spain are 10000% impossible. Even if both parties agreed to it, there's 0 chance of it to actually go through, since it'd be political suicide. Their voters would never forgive them for "siding with the enemy".
Excellent analysis in understandable and appropriate terms, notwithstanding some readers complaining about "incompleteness". Agreed, some facts are missing, even some that might turn out as important, but to review all of them would require hours. For a short size vid, all useful info is there.
Vox did not lose the elections in the way you described. They lost many council votes, but if you just look at the percentage of total votes, they just dipped from 15% to 12.4%. In my opinion, Spain will have another election before the year ends.
Regardless, the far left socialists are gone. Even if Spain doesn't dip far right, the people still want to free themselves of the neo-communist tyrany represented by the socialist government.
@@JamesFTW1 I hope they vote PP instead of Vox. However it will be very hard to have a majority in the right without Vox. Regional parties shouldn't be allowed in nationals elections. They action should be limited to each autonomía.
I was a Sumar local representative in my electoral college, so take it as you want. Regarding the snap elections, one thing that has been said, and which I believe, is that so long as the Popular Party can't get the 176 votes necessary, it will be a win for the Socialist Party (PSOE). And in here, the only two options, save for a snap election, are a left-leaning coalition (PSOE-Sumar) or a right-leaning one (PP-Vox). However, there are scarcely any partners to back the right leaning one, so they almost need to be majority by themselves. Junts might be right aligned, but Vox and PP are increasingly "Spain-nationalist" parties and centralistic ones, and minors are really against that. The big issue is that Vox has made themselves note, with political moves like censoring already closed acts, and even the Buzz Lightyear movie in popular movie watchings. PNV, which otherwise might have even voted for Feijóo (technically, they're policy aligned by the economy ones), already said in a 7-man debate that the PP-Vox alliances in municipal and regional post-election coalitions made a red line in the sand that they wouldn't cross. And in the regard of European politics on the rotating presidency, officials said in _petit comité_ that repeat election for Spain might not be the worst, as frozen national legislative cameras might make the overdue executive lean more towards Europe, as they don't have as much powers for internal duties. At least, for the remainder of the year (it's unlikely a candidate will be voted for before September, which would make elections not go before December) In the end, imo, the two most likely choices are for the left-leaning, socialist/social-democrat coalition with most of all the minors backing it, or a repeat election that will, imo again, help PP try and get the actual majority or bury even more Vox. But as I said, Catalan parties (especially Esquerra -ERC-) should consider this is a really toxic idea to do, as this party has lost half their representatives However, we've seen Italian government and the governing party (and Meloni) try to push Vox into the government, as the Spanish government has blown up in power into the European bloc and in international politics, and would push the far right policies into the EU. Which, funnily, has not been pushed as a campaign point in these past elections. A lot can be said about the way the campaign has worked, from Pedro Sánchez going everywhere from "enemy battlegrounds" like political shows to even a podcast where he talked about Taylor Swift, to the way they converted a negative concept such as _Perro Sánchez_ (Dog Sánchez) into a positive meme _(Más sabe el Perro Sanxe por perro que por Sanxe_ -> A play on the _Más sabe el diablo por viejo que por diablo,_ which is equivalent to "with age comes wisdom"), to even how many people started chanting _"Que te vote Txapote"_ (Txapote was a murderer from ETA, a Basque-located terrorist group)... To even the debates, the resurgence of Feijóo's ties with an alleged narc and at least smuggler. A lot has happened. But to end up, I have to commend all the people in my electoral college, which made all votes be counted in really quick timing, even with the Senate election, which is much more tedious to count. If other countries want to come here to learn, we're happy to teach.
Sumar-voter "por castigo" here. Good analysis, but I'm left wing so that may be bias. There is no way the left is going to be this mobilized again if elections are repeated. "Sortaleft" voters, of which there are many, aren't likely to vote for Perrito again. After all, failure to form a government is seen as a failure to do his literal job.
@@KTR2022 He has to be blocked, because if he succeeds, it is only by getting in bed with VOX. Feo says he won't do that, but that is a very big lie. He only turns his head while all his underlings cut deals with VOX to get the power. We cannot tolerate having VOX as a vice president! That means war with Catalonia and EU.
Thanks for your great work with the elections. If VOX loses, its a win for all of us. If PP hooks up with VOX, they deserve to go down and they both will. Or would we rather go to war with Cat? I don't think so. In the meantime we cannot tolerate a PP that thinks they should govern us all with only receiving 35% of the vote, lying about not courting VOX support. We must form a coalition to represent the real majority. Personally I think things in Spain have improved very much during these last years and I want that to continue. I want a gov of the people, not of PP corporate dominance, corruption and VOX retrograde interests. PP proves over and over again that they simply cannot keep their hands out of the cookie jar. BTW, We have the same saying in English. The devil you know is better than the devil you don't know.
Great video but, the team missed the use of screenshots of the dictator’s version of the constitution featuring what is now an anti constitutional coat of arms which is pretty ironic on its own
Well. You are wrong. That was the Spanish coat of arms until 1981. That document is from 1978. That's not the "dictator version". It's the actual first page of the original document.
Another funny plot twist: This is NOT the first time right nationalist calatan party has the key to Spain. On the 80 and 90, CiU, the party that after various convulsions became Junts, was required to form governs. But on those times, people get to talk among them, not like now with the constant trench warfare politics (aaaand there is that little independence thing)
PP and vox got a lot of local government seats earlier this year and people got a taste of how bad vox can be when in power. I just hope people don't forget if they have to go back to the polls
It's very natural I guess. people are frustrated and brainlessly vote for far right and then regret it later. Meloni is also probably going to lose next elections in Italy.
My city is now governed by Vox and a regional party, they had infighting almost immediately as the Vox councilor declared in radio that they were going to ban other languages that aren't Spanish in the town's party (it is a city in a bilingual area), the other party didn't know anything (she made it up). Vox are such clowns.
@@theblacklakes9351 We need more people like you in Spain. I'm pretty centrist myself but I likely would have voted PP if I didn't think that meant VOX too. VOX is terrible and if the PP had to govern with them they'd have to grant their concessions which would be terrible for our country.
A small correction: PSOE is center-left, not left (and has a lot of people that are center-right, in it), while Sumar is left, not "hard left" (or far-left, even if it has some far-left people in it, as it's a quite diverse coalition).
He is british, so, everything that´s "left" of the Labour, has to be communist (probably even worse, It´s british tradition to think like that, since you grew up like that)... The Labout itself not being left at all, of course... ;-)
@@osasunaitor CUP is the only party with representation in Spain/Catalonia that you can call far-left, Podemos are just left nowadays. At least that's how I see it.
@@klausbrinck2137 exactly. People from the UK have a narrow view of what the left is. At least they're not like the US that considers everything left of PP far-left. XD
@@osasunaitor Podemos wasn't far-left in 2019. It was a big tent party for the left. We've had an example of an actual far-left party recently in congress, called CUP.
*If elections are to be repeated, is it likely that Ayuso becomes the main candidate of PP? Yesterday during Feijóo speech, her posture felt kinda she'd try to challenge his leadership.*
@@johnberesford9906 Ayuso represents the part of PP closest to Vox, tbh. She will probably steal a lot of votes from Vox, which would probably work since it would translate to more seats.
@@johnberesford9906Putting Boris with Trump and Bolsonaro is ridiculous. Boris was a neo liberal cuck that failed in government. Trump and Bolsonaro made enormous strides for Brazil and the Us.
It's important to note that this election is only inconclusive because of the disproportionality in Spain's district system. If they used pure PR (like NE), PSOE+Sumar would have 160 seats. ERC gets 6. Bildu gets 4. PACMA gets 2. BNG gets 2. PNV gets 2. All the parties currently supporting Sanchéz would add up to 178/350 seats. In theory, this would also make them less reliant on PNV, which isn't all that left-wing.
The current system was intelligently designed by the right wing government during the transition to favour rural provinces (which tend to vote conservative)
@@pastvz2781 this is a system that's applied in many countries. It has nothing to do with right or left. It prevents urban areas from having too much control over politics and gives enough representation to rural areas. At a national level, this benefits parties like VOX and PP. At a regional level, it tends to favour regionalist parties.
Sanchez has the advantage. His strategy was to get rid of Vox as a political force before they use the next several months to fuel momentum. The momentum of Vox has been stopped dead in its tracks and that was the main objective of Sanchez going to an early election.
No, this election was to counter-attack because he massively lost the regional election, where most of the PP won and the PSOE lost a lot of province. The Map literally turn from red to blue. So because of this massive defeat of the PSOE he needed to do something or the party was going to kick him out of office, so he made the national elections before time to assure he "won" and thus had a better prestige and political position despite the regional loses. However, the PP was more voted and because it was general elections against the PP a lot of VOX voters went to PP for the national government because they have a higher chance to put PSOE out of government. A lot of people are disenchanted with Sanchez presidency.
@@Alejojojo6 That´s a very good depiction but you missed a point. PP didn´t have more votes but rather just more diputies. Thaths because not everyone vote counts the same in the elections and since PP tends to control the capital the vote-value there is on the sky while PSOE has the vote on the parts outside of the peninsula wich count very little in vote-value
@@ikerb1232 In the 23J of 2023 the PP did win more votes than the PSOE, around 400.000 more votes no that big of a difference but still more than PSOE. Its true the PP is over represented beacause they get a lot of their deputies from rural provinces wich are overrepresented. The capital and urbanized provinces are underrepresented, and that where the PP has been growing.
@@antoniodepalma-f8i Yes PP did achive more tha PSOE but I´m talking more in a PSOE as the whole-leftwing coalition and PP as the whole-rightwing coalition. For the sake of abreviation
No catalan party will ever support a candidate that makes pacts with VOX and PP is still very much regarded with very little affection due to it's management of Catalonia's try on a referendum. Either Junts and PSOE arrive to an arrangement or we will have elections again.
@@josipag2185 Ok, let Vox win then, they sure will treat catalan independentist with love and care. IMO Catalonian independentists are between a rock and a hard place, they let PP-Vox win or they let PSOE-Sumar win, that's upon them. BTW I find quite offending that you try not only to put a judicial problem to the chief of the executive-PSOE-, but not addressing that VOX has been one of the main accussations against the independentist politics in their respective trials. Next time you should think a bit about priorities.
@@desiredmanga Lol, ofc Vox won't win. Or at least not in this round, int the second, we will see PP and PSOE down and both VOX and separatist in power. I do hope that PP geta more votes in Cataluña as once Cs did as he said that he would rather pacted with Sánchez then with VOX and as seen Sánchez is the same as Rajoy and any other no separatist politicians actually, so it would be the same in 2017. So Sánchez is now in quite compromited position. Lol, Catalan independetist split the Catalonia in half, in the way that families and friends don't talk or can sit and talk only and only without bringint that topic. As i actually know a lot of people from there or from the other regions that have past the family in Catalonia. Catalan separatist to extreme are claimining so called catalan lands (Andorra ofc is not interested, Valencia that catalan es valenciano de nord, stolen and spread in Cataluña and later to some extent into Aragon, and Andorra, so also no and they even would like to get back French part and italian part pd Sardinia, how do you think this request would be taken in Rome.and Paris, LOL ) . Catalan separatist in 17th century lost part od Catalonia that is now in France and then begged to come back under Castilla crown as that was way better deal, and Catalans were the first making in Cadiz first Spanish constitution when Napoleon arrived. Catalan oligarchy like Bacardi were the most notoroius slave exploiters. And all the Spaniards paid with taxes the railways, roads, and latter for the Olympics as everything there even the beach and pearls are artificial They actually stole the valencian language and did some modification probably. So why would I care for their claims, I find the absurd in letting them to hostage the rest of the country. Also, I find quite funny and even good to have the blockage at least for the couple of years. My only problem here is victimisation of separatist and demonization of VOX, as VOX at least have two good offers that control of the illegal inmigrations and well antiwokeism as this was gone so far in Spain, thank to Podemos that Sánchez himself had to backstabbed them and invented Sumar, also the separatist are whinning about the language and don't respect the minimum of 25% classes in castellano, in the real life. So this is the reality nobody is prohibiting them to use their language, they are doing that to spanish, a.k.a castellano. So what about all the Spaniards in Cataluña which mother tounge is castellano, nobody actually in spain call that one spanish or español, as all of them are consider to be spanish, none more spanish than the others, they can't even have the 25% of classes in their language? Dude they literally split and fractured Catalan society, that they claim to love. On the other hand, Abascal the leader of VOX is the only leader in Spain with permission to carry a gun for self protection, as he gets so manny life threads. His family was constantly being life threten by ETA as he is a Basque, just not separatist So, the others here extemist are not better then him, at very least are the same as bad. And ofc nobody beside him and his 30 seats want centralization in jacobine style or antieuropeanization. Those are bad things in his party but sure he is no worse then the seperatists. Also PP and PSOE are together in the European parliament, and there is 0 problem, even for PP is not a problem make a deal with PSOE, but Sánchez cares only for sanchizmo, also the voters of Sumar and most of the PP voters as they found Sánchez man without the principles who is ceasing thinga for the final rutpure, will think the same for Feijoo so VOX will be the actual winner in the second round. And the separatist too, as Puidgemont is accused for malversation, and as of 5th of this month, EU Tribunal does not give him the immunity (how convinient, but you can see the stance of EU in terms of separatism) , but Sánchez waited until 24th when Junts said NO to anything here but refrerendum, and now the international arrest order ia reactivated. So, all the support for PSOE in Cataluña will be gone due to be the same as PP. But they are the same, have 0 principles, corrupted to the core, etc.
@@baribari1000 Sure just search his answer Pedro Sánchez De quien depende la Fiscalía here on YT is the great clip. Reporter (his answer) Del Gobierno Sánchez: Ya está. Ofc this just by accident happend not on the day 6th after Puidgemont lost his immunity, but on the day 24th, the day after the elections, when Junts went all the way as they said they would preelections.
Not really. One option is the left wing parties. The second option is new elections. Otherwise is suicide. If they vote for PP the party will basically die. As they vote for vox too
Spaniard here. The right didn't win because they scared the hell out of a lot of moderated people. PP and VOX already started in local goverments a few weeks ago and the first measures they took were completely non sense, like banning Virginia Woolf plays, re painting public benches that were painting with rainbox colors, raising up politician salaries... I think PP would have done way better without VOX and maybe they will be able to pact with local parties like PNV, Coalición Canaria and UPN to get the majority, as they have done in previous elections. But going together with VOX just mobilizes the moderate and left wing voters and makes it way difficult to make the numbers
...and even then PP absorbed so much vote from Ciudadanos that it came down to a mix of a few seats away from that scare and the Catalan pro-independence abstention benefitting PSOE
@@gameofender4463 Exactly; I have seen a video of an interview in the state TV where the jornalist compared that to "a crime against human rights". Painting a bench???? We are in a deranged society.
@@gameofender4463 Well, Spain is becoming something like a madhouse. Basically, the left is obsessed with gender ideology, and any comment criticizing LGTBQI+ is seen as outright phobia. The funniest (in a sad way) achievement of the governement has been a law to protect women that has let out of jail several hunderds of rappists and abusers because the sentencs with new law are lower than with the previous one. And yet, if you point that out, you are labeled as a fascist mysoginist person.
Only if it is for a short while. Sure, not having a government for 6 months doesn't need to be a big deal, but it's not something you can afford to sustain over time.
@@XanderVJ It was 10 months last time and Bloomberg commented that it proved the assumption that a country must have a government wrong. Either this is globally true or Spain is especially resilient.
5:25 independence referendum is unlikely ... BUT! what Catalan COULD GET is to be given the same status as Navara or Basque Country (which currently have greater autonomy than Catalonia)
which is also very unlikely. It's not the first time Catalonia has asked for this. In fact, Spain's refusal to a fiscal pact is one of the reasons pro-independence parties started advocating for a referendum a decade ago.
Missing another point here is that the CURRENT government was formed precisely with Junts abstaining. The winning coalition still has the simple majority.
Broad consensus policies with a minority government would be in everyone's best interest as they wouldn't be overturned everytime a new government is formed. But that requires sacrifice, statesmanship and looking betond your own ambition. None of these which I connect with today's politicians...
Sánchez has a clear path to presidence. Most of the parties that he needs already compromised the vote and the others can be convinced with concessions. He needs the abstention of Junts. But the backlash of their voters if they risk a victory of PP and Vox with a second call to vote will be very hard, so they cannot risk
Understand English is second language, but the 1st sentence doesn't logically connect to the rest of your comment, particularly with you last. You can't have a clear pathway but it be blocked
@@user-uy6uc5ey5q he has a clear path. There is still a little risk that junts decides to vote against but at least they know what they need and most of the other parties are already ready to vote for him. Feijóo doesn’t have a path at all. If Vox is in the coalition no one else will vote for him.
Why can't the two biggest parties, each being a center party (one center right, other center left), form a coalition and center government and thereby directly gain an absolute majority?
Because the right wing party has spent the past 4 years trying to convince the people that the left wing party are scary communist terrorist coup-making devils who eat children and want to destroy Spain. Trying to team with them now would present them to their followers as either liars or traitors. Their whole campaign was about destroying the work of Sánchez, so voters of left wing are angry at them and don't want to have anything to do with them. They were hostile to everyone outside the right and the far right parties, thinking they would reach absolute majority, but they didn't, and now no one wants to team with them.
Spain was a 2 party system for a long time so a direct coalition with 2 contradictors would be quite difficult to achieve. Also PSOE's current agenda in government was possible because of it's left wing partners in many ways is the furthest to the left reform has been done in Spain so PP would never follow through with that and PSOE wouldn't let PP carry out what they propose, which is undo a lot of the things they did during their last government.
@@Apollorion They are center parties. They just have different social agendas. Hence, they hate each other. The farleft and farright parties are the 3rd and 4th parties on the list.
@@potatomahonman5008 well not really, sanchez got it in the bag if hes smart abt it, since junts will never support vox a party that sees them as traitors and scum.
They both tied and have both failed in their goals. Even if the right wing expanded its vote share greatly while also falling short of polling predictions.
Just shows you how Socrates was right - Socrates knew how easily people seeking election could exploit our desire for easy answers. He asked us to imagine an election debate between two candidates, one who was like a doctor and the other who was like a sweet shop owner. The sweet shop owner would say of his rival: Look, this person here has worked many evils on you. He hurts you, gives you bitter potions and tells you not to eat and drink whatever you like. He’ll never serve you feasts of many and varied pleasant things like I will. Socrates asks us to consider the audience response: Do you think the doctor would be able to reply effectively? The true answer - ‘I cause you trouble, and go against you desires in order to help you’ would cause an uproar among the voters, don’t you think?
Sure, but Greeks would vote daily, not just once every 4-5 years, and non-participation, along with cluelessness about politics would lead to civil-rights loss, cause you´d count as a threat to democracy... Also, Greeks would fight for content-over-influence, and take the fortune of the most influential citizen away, and send him to exile for 10 years, so, none dared to argue like the sweet-shop-owner of your example anyway, and it were such tales that were keeping the people on track.
@@MrAngryCucaracha Still theonly and longest democracy in history... And its downfall wasn´t coruption or decadence, but the northgreek macedonian conquerors, who wanted to spread greek culture all over the world, but still keep monarchy... They thought, that greek culture was the premise for democracy, but that the world should experience many years of greek culture, till the day greek they´d be prepared for democracy itself. The Makedonians might have been right, but we´ll never know... We surely know, that after Alexander´s conquests, the world was a far more progressed one. The first university in Alexandia of Egypt was built (where also the Evangelia were written), and it´d take another 1800 years till the 2nd university ever rises. So, Christianity and the Romans destroyed everything, and set humanity back for nearly 2 millenia. The Greeks were nearly gods for their foresight, but not even them could fight "stupid".
@@MrAngryCucaracha That´snot true, he just thought, that in a democracy, there should be a respectable person (a wise man), that corrects the course of the state, if things go out of control. So, he didn´t believe in the pure democracy that was practised at the moment. Aside to that, Aristotel´s social class had a lot to lose in a pure democracy, so, self-interest and tradition was holding him back from having an unbiased opinion on something extremely new/modern. But he surely didn´t think, that democracy was "degenerate", after all, democracy back then wasn´t nearly as degenerate as today´s republic seems to be (republic isn´t a democracy, but far from it, but we are used to mix the two terms, no matter how mistaken that is).
@@gioprox5207 Let's hope so, Spain is poised for some major demographic challenges, but also has a real chance of sustained economic growth and fixing unemployment problem for good, green energy, etc for the first time in nearly 2 decades if Sanchez stays on and gets his shit together with Sumar.
you might want to change the graphic you use for the consitution, there are updated versions with the a shield instead of the eagle, the eagle is the fascist imaginery and was replaced decades ago and it's considered pretty much a hate symbol
@@mikicerise6250 it is damn to me the "fascists" are the ones with a right to "own" a national symbol, when it is owned by all the nation, just the left parties and moderate reject to use it they can't blame "fascist" own it and it is a hate symbol.
What I am missing in this discussion: the possibility of a PP-PSOE centrist coalition. Very common here in the Netherlands (Pvda-D66-CDA-VVD) and also in Germany (SPD-CDU/CSU-FDP), but I guess in Spain this is somehow considered absolutely not done? Admittedly these governments suck and never get anything important done, but that's maybe better than even more instability or giving lots of power to fringe groups, like now in Israel.
Hard for them to reach a national coalition with how toxic the relations are between them. Also, will kill either side's left/right leaning supporter base and deliver them to Sumar/Vox. PSOE will be working with a party, that in regional governments, has been happy to cooperate with a party that denounces LGBT rights, dismisses violence against women, glorifies Franco/minimises past atrocities, seeks to ban separatist political parties (so much for political freedoms).
Impossible. They have very different agendas. Also, PP abandoned the center when Vox entered politics to try to keep as many right wing voters as possible.
Absolutely impossible. Brutal campaign. The conservatives have been running on abolishing everything the coalition government has done, they've personally attacked sánchez and called this election "a struggle between liberty and Sanchismo" They've been accusing the socialists of trying to use the post office to rig the election, of ruling wiht terrorists, of being communists. There will be absolutely no grand coalition. Given the choice to let the socialists rule or go into government with the far right in Extremadura, PP chose the far right.
The PP (Conservative) party has got yet another seat in Congress, taken to the PSOE (Socialist) party, so PP is now at 137 and PSOE is at 121. This means Junts would need to vote Yes as abstaining would not be enough for Sánchez to be Prime Minister again.
Junts will ask for an independence referendum, and I hope sanchez wont fall for it, although he never had red lines to get power. Another option is that feijoo convinces the basque right party PNV to not support PSOE, so its probable to see electiones in november
@@dughorm One that accepts the will of the people he works for. That being said, I don't think it's so clear that they will demand referendum. I mean, they might compromise on that to avoid a re-election. Time will tell.
As an American, I always find the multi-party elections and government of Europe to be fascinating. The more or less two-party system of the US is simple, but boring. I like watching European countries squabble from across the Atlantic. *eats more popcorn*
eeem wtf? "sumar" is the verb we use in Spanish to describe the action of adding, for example in numbers, that's why they use the plus symbol. Weird choice of "unite" (Unir in Spanish) as a translation...
Yes, but their title (in spanish) is called "Presidente del Gobierno". I assume the person tldr were quoting said that in spanish, and tldr rolled with it.
@@Skyline25because that was compared to the last local and regional elections in 2019, four years ago. In reality, Vox peaked a long time ago and is in a downward trend that is evident when you compare it with more recent elections such as the regional ones in Andalusia or the community of Madrid
@1:44 "Calling this snap election was always gonna be a gamble for Sanchez" *_insert stereotypical comment here about misdirecting wild bulls making them used to gambles_*
As someone from Spain, im 99% sure no matter whos elected everything will stay exactly the same, and maybe a random token law that changes something by 1% will be passed. Then depending on the right or the left winning we might get more pride flags everywere or less of them, but thats about it
In first place, Snachez was not worried about the parties at his left not being united, he actually had the opposite intention, when he convoked elections, Sumar was under creation and publically announced as a platform, he was trying to make them rush and if possible left some major parties out to divide the vote and call up to voters to choose, adding up "useful" votes in the PSOE, and second, "Sumar" doesn't translate to "unite", it means "Add" or "To Add", Spanish for "Unite" would be "Unidad", "Unirse" o "Unamos", and it went down 7 seats because of this strategy of Sánchez, so they are losers too.
The only candidate who has a chance to form a new government is Sánchez. No one will go with Feijóo. PNV, also right wing but much more honest and clean, have already said no to anything Vox related and PSOE and SUMAR will never abstain to give Feijóo the chance to become president in the second round. CC have also stated that they will not support Feijóo. Time will tell if Sánchez can convince Junts (a referendum is out of the question) or we'll go to new elections.
@@roxader4299 PNV is definitely a right-wing party, they support Sanchez becasue PNV is also an separatist party. Sanchez and generaly the left-wing of Spain is more keen in giving concesions and autonomy to the regionalist
@@Isenie5 You are wrong in everything. PNV is by any single mean a separatist party and in the last decades has been effectively part of the social democratic consensus. It has voted for all of Sanchez's laws except the housing one.
as a german... if something like this happened to us, wed have done a grand coalition until a few years ago, which in this case would mean pp and the left working out a deal. thank god those days are over. the current government is kind of a dumpster fire, but a groko wouldve been even worse. at least they make choices, even if theyre not the best.
isn't it pathetic that every free country reduced itself to choose between left and right? where is diversity? where is freedom? LEFT and RIGHT LEFT and RIGHT LEFT and RIGHT LEFT and RIGHT so boring
LOL. This analysis sorely missed what happened in this election. Sanchez wasn't even supposed to gain seats. Yes, PP won but not by a lot. The percentage of the votes are a technical draw and he has more rooms to negotiate as regional parties will never go into coalition with Vox. Another election will be called but the momentum is with Sanchez and PSOE.
Wow, this is so well explained. I just subscribed recently and really appreciate the quality content of your videos and your ability to explain complex situations in layman's terms. Thank you.
okay so, im not spanish, i dont want to pretend to know the situation with catalonia in any shape or form. but in general i have the stance that you should just let them leave. if they fail they will look to you for help and you can show yourself as benevolent on the world stage. if they succeed then youve got a new economic power as a neighbor. win win
That would mean potentially losing a fifth of your GDP just like that. In fact, that's one of the main reasons Spain outright refuses to grant a referendum.
I mean Merkel governed for years in a grand coalition between her centre right party and the Social Democrats, Germany's main centre left party, its not unheard of and I think would be imminently magnanimous of both to do so instead of inviting chaos that inevitably leads to populism.
@@CarlMarxPunk fair enough, but the point of a grand coalition or any coalition is compromise, common good and bipartisanship not getting everything you want but getting something you want for the good of the country. But I recognize Germanys coalition was special and its not often replicated, nor is it likely to here.
I still find it insane that the Spaniards supported the conservatives that much when their socialist government lead to the lowest inflation in the EU, an increase in the quality of life and a 3/4 reduction in the people living wage to wage
Fat lot of good that does when the left wing accepted sexual depravation and immigrants. Spain needs less immigrants, since they already suffer from multiculturalism threathening to tear them apart like the USSR collapsed.
Because basically most Spaniards nowadays are either survivors from the dictatorship post WW2 we had (a fascist one while at It) or were raised by descendants of those, couple that with a damn lack of thinking critically and there you have It. I personally don't vote for a single reason: I remember every fuck up the goverment has done since the Prestige oil tanker disaster up untill today,regardless of which party was in power at the time.
As a Spaniard, I think that we also have many reasons to be angry with this government. Firstly, the "lowest inflation in the EU" was a success, but it was both easy to achieve thanks to Spain's energetic autonomy and insufficient, because inflation is still inflation. Indeed, we could say in some way that Spain has a very low inflation in spite of some of our government's actions. For instance, accepting Morroco's claims to Western Sahara in exchange of apparently nothing, which upseted Algeria, one of Spain's more important energetic providers and a mortal enemy from Morroco. This ultimately meant that Algeria increased the price of the gas that they were selling us, making the inflation issue even worse with no apparent benefit for Spain and its people. Secondly, the government supposedly does not publish the number of workers with temporal contracts, so we cannot be very sure of their success in this matter. It is true, though, that we have reduced unemployment in two percentual points since Sanchez won the 2019 general elections. However, this is considerably low taking into account that Spain is the developed economy with the highest unemployment in the world (around 13%, even though some economists affirm that Spanish unemployment is actually much higher), and that all other EU-countries, except from Germany and Czechia, reduced more their unemployment than Spain in the same period of time. Spain, however, has even more economic problems than those. Firstly, Spain was the one of the last EU-countries, if not the last of them, in recovering their pre-Covid GDP. Secondly, Spain is currently suffering from a housing crisis similar to UK's, with average people having many difficulties to afford housing. Indeed, on average Spanish youngs move away from their parent's homes when they are 30, needing four years more than British youngs and being the last ones in all of the EU. Sánchez tried to fix this last problem with a Housing Law, but for now it has only made the problem worse: if renting was too expensive and hard before, now it is directly impossible in most big cities. Finally, I would like to add a list of controversial laws (regardless of my personal opinion about them) and events that had damaged Sánchez's party and personal reputation: a corruption scandal in his party at the beginning of the year, which he quickly encovered by using the government's excessive influence over the judicial institutions; the Trans law; the "Only yes means yes" law, which released a hundred sexual abusers from prison and benefited a thousand more, because of a legal mistake caused by the incompetence of the government (and even though Spanish judges and legal experts had told the government that this would happen, but they were totally ignored), and, instead of assuming the responsibility and consequences of this mistake, many of the government's members blamed the judges and attacked Spanish judicial institutions; the already mentioned Housing Law; their awful gestion of the pandemic with an approximate of 20 thousand deaths that could have been avoided if the government have acted sooner and more efficiently; the gubernamental coalition's internal instability, with conflicts about many of these laws and other measures; etc. Sorry if the redaction is deficient. I tried my best :(.
The thing is Sanchez wil never give the Junts a Catalan independence referendum because Catalonia is the one reason why PP and Vox didn't win outright.
Yeah but he has not a lot of power and sometimes I like that an apolitical figure is able to come and "force" the fighting parties to retreat from frozen negotiations and get again to make an new election.
as a spaniard I feel that there is a lot of important nuances which hasn't been covered in the video, maybe is because in this election there are A LOT of important nuances in general and cover them all would take a 1h video, but anyways.
@@sam1111979 no but big ones: I think foreigners, particularly european would listen this and ask, "why is not posible a center-left and center-right coalition" I think answering that, even briefly would have been useful also talking a little bit about who are this tiny parties which supported sanchez in the past (particularly ERC, since in the video it could make people think that Junts are the only catalonian independentists, and that sanchez has never had to deal with independentists before, Bildu and its controversies with ETA, and meybe PNV and the fact that they used to go both ways but not anymore because of VOX)
![เจ็บที่ยังฮัก - ม่อน วรวิทย์ [ Official Mv ] จอนนี่มิวสิค](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/KALIGSRSjFs/mqdefault.jpg)
Something that wasn't mentioned is why many of the regional and pro independence parties are very unlikely to support a government that includes Vox. Is no so much that they are far right, as some of this parties are close to PP ideologically, but Vox takes a hard line against pro independence movements and the decentralized nature of Spain's governments (autonomías).
....they want to illegalize all parties that support the existence of nations other than Spanish, including PNV which PP wanted to ask support to. Yeah, I guess you can call that a hard line.
Thats the key element
There is a right majority in the spanish parliment with 183 seats
PP (136) + VOX (33) + JUNTS(7) + PNV(5) + CC(1) + UPN(1)
The main divergence between them is nationalism/regionalism.
@@BesthinktwiceIts not a Neofrancoist party. That's the Falange. Don't confuse youself with the two please.
@@emilioperez6888Vox is what sociologists are describing as post-fascist, like Meloni in Italy. It isn't much better though...
Not only VOX takes a hard line against pro independence movements and the decentralized nature of Spain's governments. But they also are willing to erease any other Spanish culture different from the Castellana...
The fact the formation of the Spanish government comes down to a Catalonia separatist party adds some comedy to me.
life is a comedy made out of tragedies
And some think the 2 party system is bad. This is worse.
@@afriedrich1452don't be fooled by simple media perception, in practical terms a system like this make politics more fluid and dynamic. Things can easily change and parties catering to niche demographics have a significant say in that, a two party system will only lead to stagnation and a sense of being left behind.
People tend to forget that a big part of Basque and Catalan separatists are as nationalist as PP/vox. In some way, they wish these conservative parties won the general elections, so they would have the perfect excuse to start a new campaign for their independence, by using their people's fear of fascism to get their way
@@alegp97shut up, you have no clue of spanish politics. Pedro Sánchez emerged victorious from this polls because he used his clever progapanda to persue many people not to vote to far left parties like Sumar o far right parties likes box. Just like Maccron did against Eric Zèmmour.
As an Italian, seeing the current polical climate in europe Deeply troubles me.
Political Chaos was supposed to be OUR Shtick, not everyone else's!
This is obviusly plagiarism
Is not plagiarism, European countries faces similar issues. I also want to point that right in Spain is also pro euro and PP is not a right oriented party anymore. Freijol wanted to swift to more center like position
@@TheValdevor this is true. Euroscepticism is not a real political force in Spain. Nevertheless, Vox has been slowly but surely defining its support for Orban’s politics, so I guess that they can’t be ruled out as eurosceptical. They just don’t campaign on it
@@TheValdevorok ko
Belgium thinks that's cute.
It seems like Spain is also copying Belgium and the Netherlands' shtick of not being able to form a government!
One thing you're missing big. Of the smaller parties, only CC and UPN support PP. Every other party excluding VOX does not like them, and even the more "right-wing" parties that make up Sánchez's alliance have already rejected not just supporting Feijóo, they rejected even negotiating anything with them. Feijóo really has no way of becoming PM, so it's either Sánchez or new elections
Yep
Why don't they want an alliance with PP?
@@МаркОлейник-д2еBecause the PP would almost definitely be forced to give concessions to Vox and the regional parties don't like the centralization Vox proposes. Hell, they even threatened to ban the separatist parties.
@@Besthinktwice He does since the right didn't win
@@Besthinktwice There's a chance Sanchez stays even longer though. Unemployment will continue to fall, and his economic management thus far has been decent.
1. Sumar, his main coalition partner will grow (they were formed just months before the election).
2. PP will likely select Ayuso as Feijoo's successor, who is more conservative and hard-line. She will be highly toxic to all traditional left/independent leaning regions.
3. Regionalist independence will likely continue to decline, more votes drift to PSOE, thanks to Sanchez not being so vitriolic and dismissive of regional separatists (ironic that cutting deals with them actually reduces separatist sentiment).
4. Potentially higher turnout as an another mid summer election will be unlikely.
To quote Otto von Bismarck, "I am firmly convinced that Spain is the strongest country of the world. Century after century trying to destroy herself and still no success"
Definitely agree
A garrotazos
That's a commonly misattributed quote, he never actually said that sadly
Bismarck never said that
The destruction of spain is a historic goal for my syndicalist comrades.
I am missing a few points:
- Psoe has won a couple more seats and has stop the trend towards the right that was happening along the year.
- Junts has lost seats, much like all the independentist movement in favor of Psoe, so even if they say the will demand a referendum, they are in danger of losing even more seats in a second voting.
- PP expected way more seats than the got.
- Vox has lost many seats in their hearthlands, in Castilla where they were setting their”pilot flat” (meaning their model).
At the end of the day they are all politicians. Junts will eventually support PSOE as they won't risk losing seats in a second vote or a possible PP+Vox government. However, they are still campaigning; they will first ask for a referendum and play "hard to get" even though they know they won't get it. They have to appeal to their voters before supporting the coalition.
Same with PP. They know that PSOE will never abstain, especially considering how bad of an opposition to the government they have been these past four years. They still will ask PSOE to abstain and facilitate a government, just so that they can blame them for the second vote in the campaign if it comes to that.
PP has got all the seats from the crash and dissapearing Ciudadanos. Abascal has told us , he wants to being part of the government at least 4 ministery and a Vice-Presidency, Rajoy, only would give them nothing at all. Feijoo wants Vox hold up them free-tax
Yeah pp was going to gain seats as ciudadanos dropped, so the increase wasnt really that big.
You caught my point of view.too many fireworks 🎇🎇🎇 but indeed the left wing 🪽🪽🪽 could reach out better than pp. Vox blaming debacle party forward pp
Lol, Junts needs VOX in order to start the new Proces that is dead now, btw, so only with the VOX in power, they can movilize people. And get Generalitat from ERC (the left wing separatist group).
I just wish everyone living in Spain all the best! ❤
Same! Love from Austria!
Sending love back from Madrid !
With these political parties? I already left the country because its a broken mess. Let them enjoy socialist party government that pacts with secesionists and pro-terrorists. I'm out.
@@emilioperez6888
You got the right idea. Better a so called far-right party like Italy's Melony. If the Socialists win they will restructure Spain like the Soviets didt with the Empire.
We all know what happened with the USSR.
@emilioperez6888 don't let the door hit you on the way out, you won't be missed.
Even one less vote for the right is a good thing
Sorry, in Spain we only play politics in hardcore difficulty
And yet, we still haven't managed to "git gud" yet.
“Winning doesn’t matter, what matter is that everyone else loses” - Spain, probably
Yeah basically the results of this election lmao
😂😂❤❤
To win an election in Spain, you need a majority(176 seats in the parliament), so the Conservative party cannot form a government, even if they have been the most voted.
This was already agreed by all the parties in the Constitution.
@@juanquintana6070
They can make a grand colitin and stop being hostages of justice escape person and extremist party
Either way as right wing being spanish or catalan or basque nationalist have the mayority and left laws won't pass. So basically PM is president of his gang, band or whatever as Spain is the monarchy and of Sánchez prefer having a crimal in his gang beside to ex ETA criminals, well, I don't see how this can bring any stability, attract any investors.. so far Czechs has just surpassed Spain in numbers, and next will be Poles and Slovenians, and then the rest of Eastern Europe. But, sure, you can fool yourself how this is good as Brits can do the same about Brexit both being in extremist political and legislative instability. And VOX is the same thing as Tory party, antieuropean, centralistic, but really far away of fascism whatsoever, it is funny how you don't get that after this election only Brits praise you here, every German saod what I just said, and Poles ans Czechs came to give their condolencies. As they new where you will get with this politics. Hell, those commies wanted to blackmail Ferrovíal in 21st centrury and free market world. They wanted be the ones to put the price on the product, not the market. I won't even going there how Ms data prestenter is lying about data during the most important debate on the national TV.
It has been actually a victory for Sanchez for he was declared dead after the local elections. Now he only strengthened his position in parliament and got his divided leftwing allies together preventing them from collapsing. Moreover, he's the only able to form alliances with the regional parties since all of them fear and loath Vox. Feijóo was set to win and his failure despite the tremendous growth of his party in seats can cost him his leadership.
Ra-Ra-Rasputin...
I don't agree. That's like saying "0-0 is a victory because the opponent was favourite".
Sanchez will either stay PM, give huge concessions to regionalists and be screwed in the next geeral election or there will be a new election soon.
Whats up with such fear of VOX and nothing about Sumar in Spain?
(far right) Vox is relatively pro-EU (soft eurosceptic, part of the ECR group within EU? Not hardline spain-xiters) but pro-NATO and seem pretty radically pro-Ukraine
(far left) Sumar has multiple parties that are openly against helping Ukraine, against NATO and against free market economy
From an outsider view like mine (central europe, former warsaw pact side), Sumar looks like a much bigger threat to basically the absolute basics of the society as we had and have in europe
@@jakubblaha4904you can explain it by their vivid opposition to any regionalist policies in Spain, and their ideological links with Neofrancism wich is a big nono in Modern Spain. The difference is that Sumar is very much so Europe-Friendly, but against any escalations in Ukraine.
It's not a victory for Sanchez, it's just a better result than expected.
Gotta say, a political system like this is probably more democratic than the American two party system. you can actually vote for different degree of left wing or right wing policies. While in US you have Biden and AOC in same party, and Trump and John Kasich in same party (until recently at least)
It is because they have proportional representation like most countries, while we are stuck with First past the post.
for me it is similar, in the end they are different parties but in Congress they act as a block, the block of the left and the block of the right, in Spain only the minority independence parties tip the balance.
@@_amelia96 that's a big difference, because in the USA, despite the enormous diversity, there are no regional parties. Furthermore, Sumar is much more left-wing and influential than their American equivalent, the Squad. In other words, Spain's leftmost is to the left of the USA's leftmost.
@@holdenennis Well, I do not know much about the politics of the United States, from the outside it has always seemed to me that in the United States there is no left, only marginal voices within the Democratic Party, which only seem to be important in times of elections but when it comes to governing are relegated, on the side of the Republican Party if it seems to me that the sector more to the right is the one that takes the main role and the moderates are like the relegated. It's just my impression, I don't know if it is.
@@_amelia96 your impression is correct. The Democratic Party machine often works hard to ensure that in some of their primaries where you have a leftist/progressive up against a centrist/moderate, the latter wins. After a Democrat defeat, progressives in their party, whether they were their nominee in that election or not, are always a quick and easy scapegoat for the Party to blame and then even further marginalize.
Meanwhile Macron: "Wait, you need a majority to form a government?"
It helps avoiding riots and such 😉
@@iongaztorbe193 Like in Cataluña, right ?
France and Spain have different Government systems. Spain is a parlamentarian monarchy, where the Parliament has legal and execution powers (and the king is not relevant, with diplomatic powers only), whereas France is a semipresidential republic, where the Parliament has only partial powers and the President is the only one that approves laws. Also France has a decree on which the President can actually implement their own laws without going to the Parliament, which makes the French regime a lot more presidential than it seems at first sight.
As bad as France is right now, I do think it's a better system than Spain's
The Spanish elections were closely followed here in Chile. Politic analysts think our politicians "mimic" Spanish ones, with a delay... Boric followed Podemos, Kast is following VOX, etc. So this result is interesting as it apparently shows the center in both blocks is pretty strong...our Republicanos (ultra-right, that have become popular lately) were clearly unhappy with the bad results of VOX, the guys that are so toxic for most other parties in Spain, that makes PP's victory look pyrric.
I think most people want politicians to negotiate and compromise to actually resolve important social issues, instead of fighting and screaming to appear "stronger". I hope this influences our extremes to start compromising, as our political environment currently is horribly toxic and divisive
Yo también seguí de cerca las vuestras :''). España con Chile y Chile con España. Me gusta mucho Borič, mucho más digno que Pablo Iglesias en mi opinión.
usted omite que la izquierda en España no es la de otros países europeos. Su historia está ciertamente marcada por la política como un fin en sí mismo.
@@alegp97 si la omito es por desconocimiento, la verdad conozco poco la historia politica de España de antes de los 90s, y últimamente solo por su relación con mi país (en especial el surgimiento de Podemos y de VOX). Si me puedes iluminar, feliz
@hectornavassimon7296 si, creo que Boric vio a Iglesias y se dijo a sí mismo que no podía imitarlo en todo jajaja. Voté por él y no me arrepiento, aunque ha sido un gobierno bastante complicado por muchas razones, algunas por culpas propias y otras ajenas...
@@franug El nuestro que se avecina pinta complicadísimo, y es muy probable que tengamos que ir a votar de nuevo en diciembre o enero. Y ya veremos qué pasa entonces :/ Aunque, siendo realistas, Pedro Sánchez no ha perdido nunca, es imbatible.
Just to clarify. The process of investiture works as follows: first, the king has to select a candidate to try and form a government. This candidate has two tries, in the first one, he has to obtain an absolute majority in congress, but in the second one, which takes place two days latter, he only needs a simple majority. What this means is that neither of them actually need the support of Junts, and their abstention would be enough. I know it was explained in the video, but a lot of emphasis was made in the absolute majority part of the voting and I think it might have been a bit misleading.
A completely pointless process because Junts won't abstain from every single vote for the next 4 years. All it does is allow a PM to be chosen and an inevitable early election to be delayed.
Simple majority investiture is nonsensical because they still can't govern on important issues. If every single member of Cortes votes, and they fail to get an absolute majority on something like a budget (which is due in 6 months) then it's crisis time. So might as well call an election .. or two, or three, until it's sorted.
Learn from the Belgians and Israelis. Minority governments don't survive. Ever.
When you say simple majority, do you mean plurality (more votes than any other coalition, but not over 50%)?
@@drewmqn No, the vote for candidates in the parliament is done one candidate at a time. After a candidate is proposed, every member of parliament must vote for or against his nomination. Simple majority just means getting more votes in favor than against (but not necessarily more than 50% in favor, which would be an absolute majority).
@@ulisespastordiaz497 Thanks for the clarification! Cheers!
You can't just say "PP-party" and expect me not to giggle
After recently watching the latest Spiderman movie, Why he says PP party? The second P stands for party.
@@InvictusSolDeusfr
@@InvictusSolDeus Probably for the same reason that lots of people say, "ATM machine".
@@ghost307 They probably also say "chai tea" and "naan bread"
They shouldn't say it like it in any way. PP stands for Partido Popular, or "Popular Party.
So calling them "PP Party" is to essentially say "Popular Party Party".
Just call them "PP" or "Popular Party".
It's nice to hear the news from an english speaker. I feel like "omg they acknowledge my country!"
As an American, I am so jealous of your multi party system.
don't be, their elections are just as fake as ours anyways
@d.r8482so you're happy with stagnation and lack of representation for niche demographics? Ok then
every developed nation has a multi party system.
The problem with spanish multi party system is that there will never be a clear one party government, and treaties between different parties and ideologies will make slow the governmente-making process
@@hermannsdenkmal theres always been one party governments before in Spain when it was basically a biparty country, and it was terrible for economy and social rights
I´m from Spain, so is the first time that i probably know more than you about a topic of your videos and i can say that this is very good explained, now i trust more in this chanel
With my limited knowledge of this beforehand, basically both main parties gained a bit, especially the PP, but on both sides right wing and left wing parties gained and dropped. So no one has a majority and it’s like stuck in limbo
yeah, but almost all the nationalist parties of catalonia and basque country support the left
I think the most likely outcome is Junts abstains in the investiture, thus allowing Pedro Sánchez to become prime minister, in exchange for small concessions (no referendum), like a pardon for Puigdemont. Mostly because,
1- It's near impossible the PSOE accepts a referendum.
2- Even though Junts is a right-wing party, they much rather have the left in the government, as a right-wing government would include Vox, which is strongly against all independence movements, and has promised to ban all regional/independentist parties and eliminate the autonomous communities (greatly reducing the competencies of regions).
The left won, when new elections are held the right will lose all momentum. I've spoken to people knowledgeable on the subject it's more or less a cycle. The left is under threat so elections are held the right fail to win a majority, new elections left win
@@s3m1f64 If Junts allows Vox into government, they will 100% be dead and buried in Catalonia.
The thing is Sanchez has a shot. Feijoo hasn’t.
I honestly can't see any scenario where the Catalonians side with a PP/Vox coalition 😅
Siding with PP would maybe be possible, but once you bring VOX into the picture any chance of that happening disappears. No one wants to do business with VOX
PSOE cannot either because their political campaign for decades has been "We will not aligned with separatist" so that would be shooting themselves in the foot. So a referendum is unlikely. Also this video didnt speak about other posibilities like the PNV (a conservative right basque nationalist party) to side with PP and Vox. Although that would be also quite strange but feasible.
Making concessions to smaller parties is something unheard in American politics.
Tbh smaller parties are pretty much non existent in the US
Due the corrupt way politics plays in the US the pro business/corporate lobby which would have little electorate support but completely dominates both parties. Remember the US parties are very loose coalitions, no where as internally consistent as other developed countries political parties. Its just formal small parties which don't gain much, the party of the rich gain many many concessions.
This is ironically a bit like what happened with the Speaker vote
That is because despite claiming to be a democracy, the US is at best a failed democracy and getting worse every year.
Gerrymandering, first past the post winner takes all. Super PAC s and whatnot. No room for new parties. Everything is corrupt about politics in the US. Our democracies might not be perfect, but at least unlike the USA system of first past the post, our proportional representation guarantees that every vote gets representation and not just the winning share.
Ignorants in my country say "we are not a democracy", which they think makes it ok
well one thing is for sure, Spanish politics is never boring
Thanks for talking about Spanish politics with a European perspective, cheers from Spain.
Quick clarification: as far as I know, the king has to ask the most represented party (in this case the PP) to try and form a government. If they can't, then that task should be handed to the second party (PSOE). But I don't really know what the king will do, honestly.
the king has to ask the party with the most posibility of forming gobernment, he can ask psoe first too
@@juann1492I think he has to ask the PP first and if they don't have support (which they won't have in the foreseeable future) he'll ask the PSOE. If that fails, we'll repeat elections.
@@OscarGonzalez-ld4np I think thats how It will happen but It doesnt have to
@@OscarGonzalez-ld4np He doesn’t have to ask PP first, the King is at his own discretion to designate the person he thinks most likely to form a government, after conducting talks with the parties. If he thinks Sanchez is the most likely, he could designate Sanchez first. Likely though, he’ll designate Feijoo since PP is largest, but it isn’t guaranteed.
@@Besthinktwice yes, I think you and @LordDim1 are right.
In a way Sanchez is probably the biggest winner, it was predicted that his party was getting totally defeated giving PP an absolute majority, not only did they gain 2 seat ,the coalition of pp and vox was totally avoided and vox lost seats .
a sad day for Spain
@@MyPrideFlag * fantastic
Not sure I agree with that .. 2 alternatives as far as I can see ..
1. A very shaky government that is probably going to fall apart allowing PP/Vox to say "hey told you so"
2. Another election allowing PP/Vox to say "realistically we are the only show in town i.e. we are the closest to forming a stable government"
So not the drubbing but not a win either ..
Yeah, PP won a lot, PSOE won a bit, Vox lost a lot.
PP won a lot but not
The Junts (and the other Catalan nationalist party ERC) were heavily defeated. In fact, nationalist support fell to the lowest level in three decades.
This makes the argument for a referendum now untenable (since the electorate pretty much just delivered a mandate for the opposite)
Wouldn’t be surprised if this repeats in Scotland. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, among other things, has definitely affected secessionist movements.
This was due to the parties internal infighting tho. Even the past president in exile told people to not vote leading to Catalans having the lowest turnout rate by a large margin
Doesn't that make them an easy sell for Sanchez to add in his coalition? No referendum but increased decentralization and Puigdemont back in the country.
Pro-Independence movement called for an abstention to punish ERC, Junts and la CUP because they didn't achieve the 1st October referendum purpose
Not having a referendum only gives force to indepedentists parties.
As a spaniard political scientist, I have to say that you have done mora than a decent job with this video. Congrats.
Que genial, un estudioso de ciencias políticas español, soy de México y me preguntaba ¿Qué es la ultraderecha para los españoles? no hay nada similar acá XD
@@tononanez1601 estudiante de filosofía aquí, sé que no me has pedido a mí que responda pero bueno. en el caso de vox, son anti-feministas y lgbtiq, anti-inmigración, mucho más militaristas -en teoría- que el PP y en el caso de vox, dicen ser liberales, a pesar de que se dediquen a blanquear la dictadura de franco regularmente. también se ponen muy pesados con la unidad nacional.
@@tononanez1601la ultraderecha en España es una amalgama de reaccionarios, conservativos, centralistas y una mínima minoría pseudo fascista
@@joyybuggHonestamente, no creo que seas filósofo. Te lo digo desde un muy buen argumento
@@joyybuggNo es (solo) por política
This video was filmed and scripted like a Mission Impossible movie: "Thought they could have a majority? *NO!* - they need the left-field votes!"-(Hard-zoom)-" _Wait_ ! They're demanding the IMPOSSIBLE!!"-(Double-hard-zoom- _STATISTICS!_ )-"enemy cruiser locking weapons from starboard Captain!-(sry, wrong franchise).
A definite step up in the usual political commentary. Very entertaining, bravo Spain!
Hi, guys. Your pronuntiation here is overall quite good, but there are a couple of small points to fix.
"Feijóo" and "Sumar" stress the last syllable, not the previous one. In other words, it's "FejiOO" and "SuMAR", instead of "FEijoo" and "SUmar".
But other than that, the rest was on point.
Keep up the good work.
he's not a Spanish speaker. gosh. Spaniards are such know it alls without actually knowing anything
I'm from the Canary Islands but live in Australia. The Spanish government mailed me out a voting package for the elections. Because I've been away from the Islands for so long, I wasn't confident enough to vote as there were parties I wasn't familiar with.
"Both sides are claiming victory, both the right and the left" -bro you just described our current state of politics.
Correction: in the first vote they have to have absolute majority, but in the second vote, they just need more "ayes" than "nays", so basically Junts can just abstain.
Well, they said they won't. Then Sánchez asked the judge to reactivate international arrest order for Puidgemont. That was yesterday. Keep up!
Given the situation, i would argue its tue reverse. In the post election speech, PP looked a bit defeated and the chants of Ayuso, Feijoos biggest rival dosent help, while PSOE looked to be ready to use the momentum for a reelection. And VOX blamed PP for its bad results
Abascal estaba prácticamente llorando. Y la mirada de terror de Feijoo, sabiendo que correría la misma suerte que Casado a manos de Ayuso, daba escalofríos.
@@s3m1f64 Eso si Puigdemont no hace el mayor acto de amor a España que nadie esperaría de él, votando en contra de Pedro Sánchez.
@@alejandrosotomartin9720
Pues lo hizo, ahora tiene la fiscalía pidendo la reactivacción de orden de detención en su contra. Pues, Sánchez, vamos.
Junts necesita VOX gobernando para que sea losible movilizar lo máximo y empezar de nuevo El Procés 2.0
Esta movilización grande con Sánchez gobernando, pues no sería tan grande, entonces necesita el lobo en la historia, necesita VOX gobernando, claro.
@@s3m1f64 A mí me parecía obvio que muchos escaños de Vox iban a volver al PP. Hay que recordar que Vox sacó muchísimos escaños porque en el momento de las anteriores elecciones el PP estaba desmantelado. Hubo muchísimo voto a Vox que fue un voto de castigo al PP. Es lo mismo que pasó en las primeras elecciones con Podemos, el PSOE estaba hecho unos zorros, pero a las siguientes mucho voto de castigo al PSOE volvió a votarles.
I love these videos thank you. Learning about the political systems and governments of other countries is always so interesting to me as an American
I can tell you Spanish politics is really fun!. Now, the future of Spain depends of an independentist politician who is living outside Spain becase he is wanted by Spanish justice because when he was the President of Catalonia, he created an ilegal referendum of independence from Spain. Then he had to leave Spain in the trunk of a car to cross the border with France because Spanish police was looking for him. Now, the colaboration of his party is fundamental to create a goverment and he is still the boss of this party.
Almost everyday, something happens in Spain related to politcs. There are so many points of view in the Spanish society and that's why democracy has a good level here.
Puigdemont, is a mushroom.
Sanchez doesn’t need explicit approval from Junts, just abstention
Approval. PP won a seat from exterior vote.
The fate of Spain in the hands of people who don't even care for it. Pure poetry.
That's every country. A governmnet is a thing in it's own right. It only cares for the country, to the extent that it cares at all, for it's own interest.
@@amanofnoreputation2164 I meant the separatist parties, they have the key.
“The 2 Spains” is a term used to call the two equally and strongly opposed national identities: Unionist vs Separatists. But it’s more than that. A subdivision of that is: Right Unionists, Right Separatists, Left unionists and Left separatists. Unionist can either support the Monarchy (mainly) or a Federation while Left and Right Separatists are Republican and advocate for several regional independent movements (mainly Cataluña and País Vasco, but there are more). All of them fighting it off at the National Parliament. I can confirm Spain has been trying to destroy itself for 500 years but has not managed it. Not even with a bloody CIvil War.
Wtf how could you be so wrong about the 2 Españas?
@@STV240 Wasn´t the 2 Españas about citi¡y/urban spain vs town/rural spain?
@@ikerb1232 mainly, that causing the right usually rural and left mainly city, nothing to do with separatism, it has to do more with the old liberalism vs conservatism then gone to more republicanism vs monarchism to now mainly progressism vs conservatism, separatism is too small to be a 1 half and doesnt get support from national right nor left
Since no one seems to discuss this:
What are the chances of a grand coalition?
I'm asking because as a german this reminds me quite a bit of the results of our 2005 federal election where no one had a majority without one universally shunned party. And that ultimately resulted in Merkels first grand coalition.
Edit: I just noticed the similarity is even bigger than I first realized because the german 2005 federal election was also:
• a snap election
• triggered by the left-wing incumbant
• because his party wasn't performing well in local elections
• had the left coalition cling on to way more votes than polling suggested
Just very interesting how similar they are :D
Feijoo, the leader of PP, did say that his first choice would be a grand coalition with PSOE, but that was rejected by PSOE
@@LordDim1 Good to know, thanks.
That's not going to happen. German parties are used to cooperating, Spanish parties are not, bipartidism has been the norm for basically most of Spanish democracy (which is very young).
It probably doesn't help that in this election, the two parties were going at each other's throat: PP accused the socialists of siding with Basque terrorists, selling Spain to Catalonian separatists, and demonised everything that PSOE had done during the last 4 years, calling it 'Sanchism'; meanwhile, PSOE attacked by saying that they wanted to regress Spain into the dictatorship years by siding with Vox, flaring up tensions in Catalonia and the Basque Country, and abandoning women and LGBT people to the far-right.
@@LordDim1 Nobody took him seriously though. Any leader of PP or PSOE who made a coalition with the other would be eaten alive by their own party supporters. It's like football, you are either Real Madrid or Barcelona.
Yeah, as other people pointed out, grand coalitions in Spain are 10000% impossible. Even if both parties agreed to it, there's 0 chance of it to actually go through, since it'd be political suicide. Their voters would never forgive them for "siding with the enemy".
Excellent analysis in understandable and appropriate terms, notwithstanding some readers complaining about "incompleteness". Agreed, some facts are missing, even some that might turn out as important, but to review all of them would require hours. For a short size vid, all useful info is there.
fantastic.The best news i have had all week
Vox did not lose the elections in the way you described. They lost many council votes, but if you just look at the percentage of total votes, they just dipped from 15% to 12.4%. In my opinion, Spain will have another election before the year ends.
In an environment where they were supposed to increase their support, yes this election was a failure for them.
Let's hope they keep losing voting share.
@@sergiosilva7528 They will, people will vote PP instead of VOX just to try and kick Sanchez out
Regardless, the far left socialists are gone. Even if Spain doesn't dip far right, the people still want to free themselves of the neo-communist tyrany represented by the socialist government.
@@JamesFTW1 I hope they vote PP instead of Vox. However it will be very hard to have a majority in the right without Vox. Regional parties shouldn't be allowed in nationals elections. They action should be limited to each autonomía.
I was a Sumar local representative in my electoral college, so take it as you want.
Regarding the snap elections, one thing that has been said, and which I believe, is that so long as the Popular Party can't get the 176 votes necessary, it will be a win for the Socialist Party (PSOE). And in here, the only two options, save for a snap election, are a left-leaning coalition (PSOE-Sumar) or a right-leaning one (PP-Vox). However, there are scarcely any partners to back the right leaning one, so they almost need to be majority by themselves. Junts might be right aligned, but Vox and PP are increasingly "Spain-nationalist" parties and centralistic ones, and minors are really against that.
The big issue is that Vox has made themselves note, with political moves like censoring already closed acts, and even the Buzz Lightyear movie in popular movie watchings. PNV, which otherwise might have even voted for Feijóo (technically, they're policy aligned by the economy ones), already said in a 7-man debate that the PP-Vox alliances in municipal and regional post-election coalitions made a red line in the sand that they wouldn't cross.
And in the regard of European politics on the rotating presidency, officials said in _petit comité_ that repeat election for Spain might not be the worst, as frozen national legislative cameras might make the overdue executive lean more towards Europe, as they don't have as much powers for internal duties. At least, for the remainder of the year (it's unlikely a candidate will be voted for before September, which would make elections not go before December)
In the end, imo, the two most likely choices are for the left-leaning, socialist/social-democrat coalition with most of all the minors backing it, or a repeat election that will, imo again, help PP try and get the actual majority or bury even more Vox. But as I said, Catalan parties (especially Esquerra -ERC-) should consider this is a really toxic idea to do, as this party has lost half their representatives
However, we've seen Italian government and the governing party (and Meloni) try to push Vox into the government, as the Spanish government has blown up in power into the European bloc and in international politics, and would push the far right policies into the EU. Which, funnily, has not been pushed as a campaign point in these past elections.
A lot can be said about the way the campaign has worked, from Pedro Sánchez going everywhere from "enemy battlegrounds" like political shows to even a podcast where he talked about Taylor Swift, to the way they converted a negative concept such as _Perro Sánchez_ (Dog Sánchez) into a positive meme _(Más sabe el Perro Sanxe por perro que por Sanxe_ -> A play on the _Más sabe el diablo por viejo que por diablo,_ which is equivalent to "with age comes wisdom"), to even how many people started chanting _"Que te vote Txapote"_ (Txapote was a murderer from ETA, a Basque-located terrorist group)... To even the debates, the resurgence of Feijóo's ties with an alleged narc and at least smuggler. A lot has happened.
But to end up, I have to commend all the people in my electoral college, which made all votes be counted in really quick timing, even with the Senate election, which is much more tedious to count. If other countries want to come here to learn, we're happy to teach.
🎉
Sumar-voter "por castigo" here. Good analysis, but I'm left wing so that may be bias. There is no way the left is going to be this mobilized again if elections are repeated. "Sortaleft" voters, of which there are many, aren't likely to vote for Perrito again. After all, failure to form a government is seen as a failure to do his literal job.
@@KTR2022 He has to be blocked, because if he succeeds, it is only by getting in bed with VOX. Feo says he won't do that, but that is a very big lie. He only turns his head while all his underlings cut deals with VOX to get the power. We cannot tolerate having VOX as a vice president! That means war with Catalonia and EU.
Thanks for your great work with the elections. If VOX loses, its a win for all of us. If PP hooks up with VOX, they deserve to go down and they both will. Or would we rather go to war with Cat? I don't think so.
In the meantime we cannot tolerate a PP that thinks they should govern us all with only receiving 35% of the vote, lying about not courting VOX support. We must form a coalition to represent the real majority. Personally I think things in Spain have improved very much during these last years and I want that to continue. I want a gov of the people, not of PP corporate dominance, corruption and VOX retrograde interests. PP proves over and over again that they simply cannot keep their hands out of the cookie jar.
BTW, We have the same saying in English. The devil you know is better than the devil you don't know.
Vox and PP will win, down with socialism finally from Europe! 🎉
Great video but, the team missed the use of screenshots of the dictator’s version of the constitution featuring what is now an anti constitutional coat of arms which is pretty ironic on its own
Well. You are wrong. That was the Spanish coat of arms until 1981. That document is from 1978. That's not the "dictator version". It's the actual first page of the original document.
Sounds like a normal day in Spain.
you missed how the smaller parties have publicly stated that they don't want to be in a coalition with Vox
2:55 CC released a statement saying that they would not support any deal involving Vox.
Really? Nice. Do you have a link?
I've been loosely following Catalonian politics and the pro-independance party becoming the "kingmakers" here is an extremely entertaining plot twist
Another funny plot twist:
This is NOT the first time right nationalist calatan party has the key to Spain. On the 80 and 90, CiU, the party that after various convulsions became Junts, was required to form governs. But on those times, people get to talk among them, not like now with the constant trench warfare politics (aaaand there is that little independence thing)
@@danielloureirotarilonte8216 to be fair, Spain never really abided by the promises they made to CiU.
PP and vox got a lot of local government seats earlier this year and people got a taste of how bad vox can be when in power. I just hope people don't forget if they have to go back to the polls
It's very natural I guess. people are frustrated and brainlessly vote for far right and then regret it later. Meloni is also probably going to lose next elections in Italy.
My city is now governed by Vox and a regional party, they had infighting almost immediately as the Vox councilor declared in radio that they were going to ban other languages that aren't Spanish in the town's party (it is a city in a bilingual area), the other party didn't know anything (she made it up). Vox are such clowns.
As a right-leaning Spaniard, I completely agree that vox messed it all up
@@theblacklakes9351 We need more people like you in Spain. I'm pretty centrist myself but I likely would have voted PP if I didn't think that meant VOX too. VOX is terrible and if the PP had to govern with them they'd have to grant their concessions which would be terrible for our country.
@@adr77510 As a left supporter, I would GLADLY have PP govern if that excluded VOX completely.
A small correction: PSOE is center-left, not left (and has a lot of people that are center-right, in it), while Sumar is left, not "hard left" (or far-left, even if it has some far-left people in it, as it's a quite diverse coalition).
I think calling Sumar far-left is not such a stretch, their largest member is Podemos which was indeed a far-left party.
He is british, so, everything that´s "left" of the Labour, has to be communist (probably even worse, It´s british tradition to think like that, since you grew up like that)... The Labout itself not being left at all, of course... ;-)
@@osasunaitor CUP is the only party with representation in Spain/Catalonia that you can call far-left, Podemos are just left nowadays. At least that's how I see it.
@@klausbrinck2137 exactly. People from the UK have a narrow view of what the left is. At least they're not like the US that considers everything left of PP far-left. XD
@@osasunaitor Podemos wasn't far-left in 2019. It was a big tent party for the left. We've had an example of an actual far-left party recently in congress, called CUP.
As a Spanish, this is very well explained. Bravo! 🙌🏼
*If elections are to be repeated, is it likely that Ayuso becomes the main candidate of PP? Yesterday during Feijóo speech, her posture felt kinda she'd try to challenge his leadership.*
Ayuso is the Boris Johnson, Trump, Bolsonaro candidate. She is popular in Madrid, but would that translate to the rest of the country?
It wouldbe terrible. They need a candidate to win over non die hard right voters and I dont see her in that role.
@@paladineeYo sí la veo, desgraciadamente, si no es en las elecciones próximas será en las siguientes
@@johnberesford9906 Ayuso represents the part of PP closest to Vox, tbh. She will probably steal a lot of votes from Vox, which would probably work since it would translate to more seats.
@@johnberesford9906Putting Boris with Trump and Bolsonaro is ridiculous. Boris was a neo liberal cuck that failed in government. Trump and Bolsonaro made enormous strides for Brazil and the Us.
It's important to note that this election is only inconclusive because of the disproportionality in Spain's district system.
If they used pure PR (like NE), PSOE+Sumar would have 160 seats. ERC gets 6. Bildu gets 4. PACMA gets 2. BNG gets 2. PNV gets 2.
All the parties currently supporting Sanchéz would add up to 178/350 seats.
In theory, this would also make them less reliant on PNV, which isn't all that left-wing.
The current system was intelligently designed by the right wing government during the transition to favour rural provinces (which tend to vote conservative)
@@pastvz2781 this is a system that's applied in many countries. It has nothing to do with right or left. It prevents urban areas from having too much control over politics and gives enough representation to rural areas. At a national level, this benefits parties like VOX and PP. At a regional level, it tends to favour regionalist parties.
Sanchez has the advantage. His strategy was to get rid of Vox as a political force before they use the next several months to fuel momentum. The momentum of Vox has been stopped dead in its tracks and that was the main objective of Sanchez going to an early election.
No, this election was to counter-attack because he massively lost the regional election, where most of the PP won and the PSOE lost a lot of province. The Map literally turn from red to blue. So because of this massive defeat of the PSOE he needed to do something or the party was going to kick him out of office, so he made the national elections before time to assure he "won" and thus had a better prestige and political position despite the regional loses. However, the PP was more voted and because it was general elections against the PP a lot of VOX voters went to PP for the national government because they have a higher chance to put PSOE out of government. A lot of people are disenchanted with Sanchez presidency.
@@Alejojojo6 That´s a very good depiction but you missed a point. PP didn´t have more votes but rather just more diputies. Thaths because not everyone vote counts the same in the elections and since PP tends to control the capital the vote-value there is on the sky while PSOE has the vote on the parts outside of the peninsula wich count very little in vote-value
@@ikerb1232 In the 23J of 2023 the PP did win more votes than the PSOE, around 400.000 more votes no that big of a difference but still more than PSOE.
Its true the PP is over represented beacause they get a lot of their deputies from rural provinces wich are overrepresented. The capital and urbanized provinces are underrepresented, and that where the PP has been growing.
@@antoniodepalma-f8i Yes PP did achive more tha PSOE but I´m talking more in a PSOE as the whole-leftwing coalition and PP as the whole-rightwing coalition. For the sake of abreviation
No catalan party will ever support a candidate that makes pacts with VOX and PP is still very much regarded with very little affection due to it's management of Catalonia's try on a referendum. Either Junts and PSOE arrive to an arrangement or we will have elections again.
So, now the reactivation of the international arrest order for Puidgemont that Sánchez just did won't be problematic?
@@josipag2185 Ok, let Vox win then, they sure will treat catalan independentist with love and care. IMO Catalonian independentists are between a rock and a hard place, they let PP-Vox win or they let PSOE-Sumar win, that's upon them. BTW I find quite offending that you try not only to put a judicial problem to the chief of the executive-PSOE-, but not addressing that VOX has been one of the main accussations against the independentist politics in their respective trials. Next time you should think a bit about priorities.
@@desiredmanga
Lol, ofc Vox won't win. Or at least not in this round, int the second, we will see PP and PSOE down and both VOX and separatist in power. I do hope that PP geta more votes in Cataluña as once Cs did as he said that he would rather pacted with Sánchez then with VOX and as seen Sánchez is the same as Rajoy and any other no separatist politicians actually, so it would be the same in 2017. So Sánchez is now in quite compromited position. Lol, Catalan independetist split the Catalonia in half, in the way that families and friends don't talk or can sit and talk only and only without bringint that topic. As i actually know a lot of people from there or from the other regions that have past the family in Catalonia. Catalan separatist to extreme are claimining so called catalan lands (Andorra ofc is not interested, Valencia that catalan es valenciano de nord, stolen and spread in Cataluña and later to some extent into Aragon, and Andorra, so also no and they even would like to get back French part and italian part pd Sardinia, how do you think this request would be taken in Rome.and Paris, LOL ) . Catalan separatist in 17th century lost part od Catalonia that is now in France and then begged to come back under Castilla crown as that was way better deal, and Catalans were the first making in Cadiz first Spanish constitution when Napoleon arrived. Catalan oligarchy like Bacardi were the most notoroius slave exploiters. And all the Spaniards paid with taxes the railways, roads, and latter for the Olympics as everything there even the beach and pearls are artificial
They actually stole the valencian language and did some modification probably. So why would I care for their claims, I find the absurd in letting them to hostage the rest of the country. Also, I find quite funny and even good to have the blockage at least for the couple of years. My only problem here is victimisation of separatist and demonization of VOX, as VOX at least have two good offers that control of the illegal inmigrations and well antiwokeism as this was gone so far in Spain, thank to Podemos that Sánchez himself had to backstabbed them and invented Sumar, also the separatist are whinning about the language and don't respect the minimum of 25% classes in castellano, in the real life. So this is the reality nobody is prohibiting them to use their language, they are doing that to spanish, a.k.a castellano. So what about all the Spaniards in Cataluña which mother tounge is castellano, nobody actually in spain call that one spanish or español, as all of them are consider to be spanish, none more spanish than the others, they can't even have the 25% of classes in their language? Dude they literally split and fractured Catalan society, that they claim to love. On the other hand, Abascal the leader of VOX is the only leader in Spain with permission to carry a gun for self protection, as he gets so manny life threads.
His family was constantly being life threten by ETA as he is a Basque, just not separatist So, the others here extemist are not better then him, at very least are the same as bad. And ofc nobody beside him and his 30 seats want centralization in jacobine style or antieuropeanization. Those are bad things in his party but sure he is no worse then the seperatists. Also PP and PSOE are together in the European parliament, and there is 0 problem, even for PP is not a problem make a deal with PSOE, but Sánchez cares only for sanchizmo, also the voters of Sumar and most of the PP voters as they found Sánchez man without the principles who is ceasing thinga for the final rutpure, will think the same for Feijoo so VOX will be the actual winner in the second round. And the separatist too, as Puidgemont is accused for malversation, and as of 5th of this month, EU Tribunal does not give him the immunity (how convinient, but you can see the stance of EU in terms of separatism) , but Sánchez waited until 24th when Junts said NO to anything here but refrerendum, and now the international arrest order ia reactivated. So, all the support for PSOE in Cataluña will be gone due to be the same as PP. But they are the same, have 0 principles, corrupted to the core, etc.
@@josipag2185 Wasn’t Sánchez. It’s the national prosecutor’s office asking a supreme court judge to do it.
@@baribari1000
Sure just search his answer Pedro Sánchez De quien depende la Fiscalía here on YT is the great clip.
Reporter (his answer) Del Gobierno
Sánchez: Ya está.
Ofc this just by accident happend not on the day 6th after Puidgemont lost his immunity, but on the day 24th, the day after the elections, when Junts went all the way as they said they would preelections.
In España, Pedro Sánchez is well known as a Master of resistance.
Catalonia party has reached a very good position. They can wait and see who offers a better deal.
They are not going to get what they claim they want but surely they will get something and in the process the whole of us will lose
The right can't offer anything to junts due to Vox's hardline policies towards regionalisms.
Not really, the right are toxic for them. They only have two choices: either support Sánchez or force new elections.
Not really. One option is the left wing parties. The second option is new elections. Otherwise is suicide. If they vote for PP the party will basically die. As they vote for vox too
There’s no chance they enter a coalition with Vox
It shouold be added that the Socialist Party "win" is largely due to the Catalan Socialist Party getting A LOT of votes.
Spaniard here. The right didn't win because they scared the hell out of a lot of moderated people. PP and VOX already started in local goverments a few weeks ago and the first measures they took were completely non sense, like banning Virginia Woolf plays, re painting public benches that were painting with rainbox colors, raising up politician salaries...
I think PP would have done way better without VOX and maybe they will be able to pact with local parties like PNV, Coalición Canaria and UPN to get the majority, as they have done in previous elections. But going together with VOX just mobilizes the moderate and left wing voters and makes it way difficult to make the numbers
...and even then PP absorbed so much vote from Ciudadanos that it came down to a mix of a few seats away from that scare and the Catalan pro-independence abstention benefitting PSOE
Imagine being triggered by a rainbow coloured bench 😂
@@gameofender4463 Exactly; I have seen a video of an interview in the state TV where the jornalist compared that to "a crime against human rights". Painting a bench???? We are in a deranged society.
@@miguelarribas9990 Sounds like something you’d hear in Russia or on Fox News 😂
@@gameofender4463 Well, Spain is becoming something like a madhouse. Basically, the left is obsessed with gender ideology, and any comment criticizing LGTBQI+ is seen as outright phobia. The funniest (in a sad way) achievement of the governement has been a law to protect women that has let out of jail several hunderds of rappists and abusers because the sentencs with new law are lower than with the previous one. And yet, if you point that out, you are labeled as a fascist mysoginist person.
Having no government does not seem to be too bad a state for Spain as demonstrated last time?
Only if it is for a short while. Sure, not having a government for 6 months doesn't need to be a big deal, but it's not something you can afford to sustain over time.
@@XanderVJ It was 10 months last time and Bloomberg commented that it proved the assumption that a country must have a government wrong. Either this is globally true or Spain is especially resilient.
5:25 independence referendum is unlikely ... BUT! what Catalan COULD GET is to be given the same status as Navara or Basque Country (which currently have greater autonomy than Catalonia)
which is also very unlikely. It's not the first time Catalonia has asked for this. In fact, Spain's refusal to a fiscal pact is one of the reasons pro-independence parties started advocating for a referendum a decade ago.
Missing another point here is that the CURRENT government was formed precisely with Junts abstaining. The winning coalition still has the simple majority.
Broad consensus policies with a minority government would be in everyone's best interest as they wouldn't be overturned everytime a new government is formed.
But that requires sacrifice, statesmanship and looking betond your own ambition. None of these which I connect with today's politicians...
Not if the consensus includes parties with bad policies and is just status quo.
Sánchez has a clear path to presidence.
Most of the parties that he needs already compromised the vote and the others can be convinced with concessions.
He needs the abstention of Junts. But the backlash of their voters if they risk a victory of PP and Vox with a second call to vote will be very hard, so they cannot risk
Junts are right-wing separatist trolls and they secretly wish a PP's victory, I'm not sure new elections penalized them 🥺
Understand English is second language, but the 1st sentence doesn't logically connect to the rest of your comment, particularly with you last.
You can't have a clear pathway but it be blocked
@@user-uy6uc5ey5q he has a clear path. There is still a little risk that junts decides to vote against but at least they know what they need and most of the other parties are already ready to vote for him.
Feijóo doesn’t have a path at all. If Vox is in the coalition no one else will vote for him.
Junts can try to block but it is VERY risky for Junts
Yes, so now he is trying to put Puidgemont in the jail as he is reactivating international arrest order
No one expected the Spanish election.
Ty for this. Liked and subbed
Great video, it's a very precise assessment of what is going on here in Spain!
Why can't the two biggest parties, each being a center party (one center right, other center left), form a coalition and center government and thereby directly gain an absolute majority?
Because the right wing party has spent the past 4 years trying to convince the people that the left wing party are scary communist terrorist coup-making devils who eat children and want to destroy Spain. Trying to team with them now would present them to their followers as either liars or traitors. Their whole campaign was about destroying the work of Sánchez, so voters of left wing are angry at them and don't want to have anything to do with them. They were hostile to everyone outside the right and the far right parties, thinking they would reach absolute majority, but they didn't, and now no one wants to team with them.
Because they hate each other
Spain was a 2 party system for a long time so a direct coalition with 2 contradictors would be quite difficult to achieve. Also PSOE's current agenda in government was possible because of it's left wing partners in many ways is the furthest to the left reform has been done in Spain so PP would never follow through with that and PSOE wouldn't let PP carry out what they propose, which is undo a lot of the things they did during their last government.
@@CarlMarxPunk Thank you for explaining why hodisfut remark isn't really empty and that PP & PSOE aren't really center parties.
@@Apollorion They are center parties. They just have different social agendas. Hence, they hate each other. The farleft and farright parties are the 3rd and 4th parties on the list.
"Why the right failed"
>Shows Sánchez and says 'the end for Sánchez?'
Get your politics straight.
Tbf nobody really won so both can be accurate
@@potatomahonman5008 well not really, sanchez got it in the bag if hes smart abt it, since junts will never support vox a party that sees them as traitors and scum.
They both tied and have both failed in their goals. Even if the right wing expanded its vote share greatly while also falling short of polling predictions.
Just shows you how Socrates was right -
Socrates knew how easily people seeking election could exploit our desire for easy answers. He asked us to imagine an election debate between two candidates, one who was like a doctor and the other who was like a sweet shop owner. The sweet shop owner would say of his rival:
Look, this person here has worked many evils on you. He hurts you, gives you bitter potions and tells you not to eat and drink whatever you like. He’ll never serve you feasts of many and varied pleasant things like I will.
Socrates asks us to consider the audience response:
Do you think the doctor would be able to reply effectively? The true answer - ‘I cause you trouble, and go against you desires in order to help you’ would cause an uproar among the voters, don’t you think?
Sure, but Greeks would vote daily, not just once every 4-5 years, and non-participation, along with cluelessness about politics would lead to civil-rights loss, cause you´d count as a threat to democracy... Also, Greeks would fight for content-over-influence, and take the fortune of the most influential citizen away, and send him to exile for 10 years, so, none dared to argue like the sweet-shop-owner of your example anyway, and it were such tales that were keeping the people on track.
@@klausbrinck2137y con todo su democracia duro 180 años.
@@MrAngryCucaracha Still theonly and longest democracy in history... And its downfall wasn´t coruption or decadence, but the northgreek macedonian conquerors, who wanted to spread greek culture all over the world, but still keep monarchy... They thought, that greek culture was the premise for democracy, but that the world should experience many years of greek culture, till the day greek they´d be prepared for democracy itself. The Makedonians might have been right, but we´ll never know... We surely know, that after Alexander´s conquests, the world was a far more progressed one. The first university in Alexandia of Egypt was built (where also the Evangelia were written), and it´d take another 1800 years till the 2nd university ever rises. So, Christianity and the Romans destroyed everything, and set humanity back for nearly 2 millenia. The Greeks were nearly gods for their foresight, but not even them could fight "stupid".
@@klausbrinck2137 not sure what they thought, but aristotle, who was alenxander's tutor, thought that democracy was a degenerate way of government.
@@MrAngryCucaracha That´snot true, he just thought, that in a democracy, there should be a respectable person (a wise man), that corrects the course of the state, if things go out of control. So, he didn´t believe in the pure democracy that was practised at the moment. Aside to that, Aristotel´s social class had a lot to lose in a pure democracy, so, self-interest and tradition was holding him back from having an unbiased opinion on something extremely new/modern. But he surely didn´t think, that democracy was "degenerate", after all, democracy back then wasn´t nearly as degenerate as today´s republic seems to be (republic isn´t a democracy, but far from it, but we are used to mix the two terms, no matter how mistaken that is).
Great video, though I think the likely scenario is Sanchez will be invested as PM in the second round vote (as opposed to another election).
He just need the support of Junts (the party of Catalan separatist leader, Charles Puigdemont) to be invested again.
@@Cheetos_senhorwith refrendum in return
@@karankapoor2701You are making this up. The negotiations haven't even begun yet.
@@Cheetos_senhorbut Junts will never agree to a coalition with Vox in it
@@josephstalin2829 True. Not even with PP
Honestly Sanchez might turn out to be one of Spain's best prime ministers if he stays on, when all is said and done.
Which is funny since his rivals consider him Evil incarnate.
He took a calculated risk and it payed off. "It's either me or Vox" dude is smart.
I'd say he's the smartest. The dude has some serious finess
@@gioprox5207 Let's hope so, Spain is poised for some major demographic challenges, but also has a real chance of sustained economic growth and fixing unemployment problem for good, green energy, etc for the first time in nearly 2 decades if Sanchez stays on and gets his shit together with Sumar.
you might want to change the graphic you use for the consitution, there are updated versions with the a shield instead of the eagle, the eagle is the fascist imaginery and was replaced decades ago and it's considered pretty much a hate symbol
Exacto
Really? But I see Vox people with it all over and they say they are not far right. 🤔
@@mikicerise6250 Never trust a fascist.
@@mikicerise6250 it is damn to me the "fascists" are the ones with a right to "own" a national symbol, when it is owned by all the nation, just the left parties and moderate reject to use it they can't blame "fascist" own it and it is a hate symbol.
Our eagle, an standard since the times of Emperor Carlos is now a "hate symbol", oh my f* god...
What I am missing in this discussion: the possibility of a PP-PSOE centrist coalition. Very common here in the Netherlands (Pvda-D66-CDA-VVD) and also in Germany (SPD-CDU/CSU-FDP), but I guess in Spain this is somehow considered absolutely not done? Admittedly these governments suck and never get anything important done, but that's maybe better than even more instability or giving lots of power to fringe groups, like now in Israel.
As an outsider from a much closer country, my guess is: They are two roosters for the same perch. Besides, the blood is hotter here in the South...
Not happening
Hard for them to reach a national coalition with how toxic the relations are between them. Also, will kill either side's left/right leaning supporter base and deliver them to Sumar/Vox. PSOE will be working with a party, that in regional governments, has been happy to cooperate with a party that denounces LGBT rights, dismisses violence against women, glorifies Franco/minimises past atrocities, seeks to ban separatist political parties (so much for political freedoms).
Impossible. They have very different agendas.
Also, PP abandoned the center when Vox entered politics to try to keep as many right wing voters as possible.
Absolutely impossible. Brutal campaign. The conservatives have been running on abolishing everything the coalition government has done, they've personally attacked sánchez and called this election "a struggle between liberty and Sanchismo" They've been accusing the socialists of trying to use the post office to rig the election, of ruling wiht terrorists, of being communists. There will be absolutely no grand coalition. Given the choice to let the socialists rule or go into government with the far right in Extremadura, PP chose the far right.
The PP (Conservative) party has got yet another seat in Congress, taken to the PSOE (Socialist) party, so PP is now at 137 and PSOE is at 121. This means Junts would need to vote Yes as abstaining would not be enough for Sánchez to be Prime Minister again.
Outstanding explanation! Thanks
Es como decia mi abuelo: "Más sabe el Perro Sanxe por Perro que por Sánchez"
Junts will ask for an independence referendum, and I hope sanchez wont fall for it, although he never had red lines to get power. Another option is that feijoo convinces the basque right party PNV to not support PSOE, so its probable to see electiones in november
Why is an independence referendum viewed as something negative?
@@dughorm One that accepts the will of the people he works for. That being said, I don't think it's so clear that they will demand referendum. I mean, they might compromise on that to avoid a re-election. Time will tell.
@@dughorm A democratic one.
@@dughorm Not that I want Sanchez to agree to one, but a Catalonian independence referendum is polled to fail is it not?
@@bloat1235 Or not. They will claim that is their "now or never" chance.
As an American, I always find the multi-party elections and government of Europe to be fascinating. The more or less two-party system of the US is simple, but boring. I like watching European countries squabble from across the Atlantic. *eats more popcorn*
eeem wtf? "sumar" is the verb we use in Spanish to describe the action of adding, for example in numbers, that's why they use the plus symbol. Weird choice of "unite" (Unir in Spanish) as a translation...
Sinceramente unir también parece como una palabra muy adecuada para describir lo que ha logrado hacer Sumar en estas elecciones
same about the happen in the UK next year too.
more on Spain/Barcelona/Catalonia in general please 👍
One small correction, Spain doesn't have a prime minister. It has a president.
Yes, but their title (in spanish) is called "Presidente del Gobierno". I assume the person tldr were quoting said that in spanish, and tldr rolled with it.
No it doesn't it's a constitutional monarchy with a PM
Pedro Sánchez is president of the government, the Psoe government, but is the prime minister of the spanish Kingdom
Correction: Support for Vox didn't soared, they actually loss 19 seats in parliament.
Media is constantly hyping up the right wing to scare everyone like a bogeyman. They are always very very small.
They said it soared in the municipal elections
@@Skyline25because that was compared to the last local and regional elections in 2019, four years ago. In reality, Vox peaked a long time ago and is in a downward trend that is evident when you compare it with more recent elections such as the regional ones in Andalusia or the community of Madrid
@1:44
"Calling this snap election was always gonna be a gamble for Sanchez"
*_insert stereotypical comment here about misdirecting wild bulls making them used to gambles_*
As someone from Spain, im 99% sure no matter whos elected everything will stay exactly the same, and maybe a random token law that changes something by 1% will be passed. Then depending on the right or the left winning we might get more pride flags everywere or less of them, but thats about it
Its a jewish theatre, its part of being into the New World Order puppet states. My respects to Spain however
In first place, Snachez was not worried about the parties at his left not being united, he actually had the opposite intention, when he convoked elections, Sumar was under creation and publically announced as a platform, he was trying to make them rush and if possible left some major parties out to divide the vote and call up to voters to choose, adding up "useful" votes in the PSOE, and second, "Sumar" doesn't translate to "unite", it means "Add" or "To Add", Spanish for "Unite" would be "Unidad", "Unirse" o "Unamos", and it went down 7 seats because of this strategy of Sánchez, so they are losers too.
sumar better translates in English to the word Sum which is similar to Sumar.
@@covfefe1787 Oh, you're right, I didn't know that word.
Unite was a better name 🤣
@@pixelmicrocat lmao, as a spaniard I'll tell you it doesn't make any sense so don't be so pretentious
The only candidate who has a chance to form a new government is Sánchez. No one will go with Feijóo. PNV, also right wing but much more honest and clean, have already said no to anything Vox related and PSOE and SUMAR will never abstain to give Feijóo the chance to become president in the second round. CC have also stated that they will not support Feijóo. Time will tell if Sánchez can convince Junts (a referendum is out of the question) or we'll go to new elections.
Isn't the PNV more of a centrist party? And even if they are not necessarily a left party, weren't they a Sanchez ally in the last congress?
@@roxader4299 PNV is definitely a right-wing party, they support Sanchez becasue PNV is also an separatist party. Sanchez and generaly the left-wing of Spain is more keen in giving concesions and autonomy to the regionalist
pnv honest and clean? lol, are you are gonna say jxcat, who were ciu before, are also honest and clean next?
@@Isenie5 You are wrong in everything. PNV is by any single mean a separatist party and in the last decades has been effectively part of the social democratic consensus. It has voted for all of Sanchez's laws except the housing one.
@@alejandrosotomartin9720 o
no me has entendido, o no te entiendo yo a tí
please please please make a similar video about Greece's non-democratic election system!!
as a german... if something like this happened to us, wed have done a grand coalition until a few years ago, which in this case would mean pp and the left working out a deal. thank god those days are over. the current government is kind of a dumpster fire, but a groko wouldve been even worse. at least they make choices, even if theyre not the best.
isn't it pathetic that every free country reduced itself to choose between left and right? where is diversity? where is freedom?
LEFT and RIGHT
LEFT and RIGHT
LEFT and RIGHT
LEFT and RIGHT
so boring
I'd prefer an alternative, yes. Preferably rationalist and transhumanist.
LOL. This analysis sorely missed what happened in this election. Sanchez wasn't even supposed to gain seats. Yes, PP won but not by a lot. The percentage of the votes are a technical draw and he has more rooms to negotiate as regional parties will never go into coalition with Vox. Another election will be called but the momentum is with Sanchez and PSOE.
Wow, this is so well explained. I just subscribed recently and really appreciate the quality content of your videos and your ability to explain complex situations in layman's terms. Thank you.
Sounds like good news, considering this is Spain.
okay so, im not spanish, i dont want to pretend to know the situation with catalonia in any shape or form. but in general i have the stance that you should just let them leave. if they fail they will look to you for help and you can show yourself as benevolent on the world stage. if they succeed then youve got a new economic power as a neighbor. win win
That would mean potentially losing a fifth of your GDP just like that.
In fact, that's one of the main reasons Spain outright refuses to grant a referendum.
What if the center-right and the center-left make a center-center coalition? Won't happen but would be funny.
I mean Merkel governed for years in a grand coalition between her centre right party and the Social Democrats, Germany's main centre left party, its not unheard of and I think would be imminently magnanimous of both to do so instead of inviting chaos that inevitably leads to populism.
There is close to zero chance of this happening in Spain.
@@TheOffkilter PP is more to the right of CDU in that sense tbh.
@@CarlMarxPunk fair enough, but the point of a grand coalition or any coalition is compromise, common good and bipartisanship not getting everything you want but getting something you want for the good of the country. But I recognize Germanys coalition was special and its not often replicated, nor is it likely to here.
It happened in Ireland when the big two parties fanfed up to keep sinn fein out of government
I still find it insane that the Spaniards supported the conservatives that much when their socialist government lead to the lowest inflation in the EU, an increase in the quality of life and a 3/4 reduction in the people living wage to wage
Fat lot of good that does when the left wing accepted sexual depravation and immigrants. Spain needs less immigrants, since they already suffer from multiculturalism threathening to tear them apart like the USSR collapsed.
Yeah, but i guess the neo-fascits are loosing consensus in europe as well
I don't understand it myself (from Spain).
Because basically most Spaniards nowadays are either survivors from the dictatorship post WW2 we had (a fascist one while at It) or were raised by descendants of those, couple that with a damn lack of thinking critically and there you have It. I personally don't vote for a single reason: I remember every fuck up the goverment has done since the Prestige oil tanker disaster up untill today,regardless of which party was in power at the time.
As a Spaniard, I think that we also have many reasons to be angry with this government.
Firstly, the "lowest inflation in the EU" was a success, but it was both easy to achieve thanks to Spain's energetic autonomy and insufficient, because inflation is still inflation. Indeed, we could say in some way that Spain has a very low inflation in spite of some of our government's actions. For instance, accepting Morroco's claims to Western Sahara in exchange of apparently nothing, which upseted Algeria, one of Spain's more important energetic providers and a mortal enemy from Morroco. This ultimately meant that Algeria increased the price of the gas that they were selling us, making the inflation issue even worse with no apparent benefit for Spain and its people.
Secondly, the government supposedly does not publish the number of workers with temporal contracts, so we cannot be very sure of their success in this matter. It is true, though, that we have reduced unemployment in two percentual points since Sanchez won the 2019 general elections. However, this is considerably low taking into account that Spain is the developed economy with the highest unemployment in the world (around 13%, even though some economists affirm that Spanish unemployment is actually much higher), and that all other EU-countries, except from Germany and Czechia, reduced more their unemployment than Spain in the same period of time.
Spain, however, has even more economic problems than those. Firstly, Spain was the one of the last EU-countries, if not the last of them, in recovering their pre-Covid GDP. Secondly, Spain is currently suffering from a housing crisis similar to UK's, with average people having many difficulties to afford housing. Indeed, on average Spanish youngs move away from their parent's homes when they are 30, needing four years more than British youngs and being the last ones in all of the EU. Sánchez tried to fix this last problem with a Housing Law, but for now it has only made the problem worse: if renting was too expensive and hard before, now it is directly impossible in most big cities.
Finally, I would like to add a list of controversial laws (regardless of my personal opinion about them) and events that had damaged Sánchez's party and personal reputation: a corruption scandal in his party at the beginning of the year, which he quickly encovered by using the government's excessive influence over the judicial institutions; the Trans law; the "Only yes means yes" law, which released a hundred sexual abusers from prison and benefited a thousand more, because of a legal mistake caused by the incompetence of the government (and even though Spanish judges and legal experts had told the government that this would happen, but they were totally ignored), and, instead of assuming the responsibility and consequences of this mistake, many of the government's members blamed the judges and attacked Spanish judicial institutions; the already mentioned Housing Law; their awful gestion of the pandemic with an approximate of 20 thousand deaths that could have been avoided if the government have acted sooner and more efficiently; the gubernamental coalition's internal instability, with conflicts about many of these laws and other measures; etc.
Sorry if the redaction is deficient. I tried my best :(.
Nobody cares about which TLDR channel is doing better than the other. Just treat the audience with respect.
The thing is Sanchez wil never give the Junts a Catalan independence referendum because Catalonia is the one reason why PP and Vox didn't win outright.
3:02 And the PSOE is center-left and Sumar left-wing
Absolutely. International media seems to only read OkDiario or something.
Things I learned today: Spain still has a King
Yeah but he has not a lot of power and sometimes I like that an apolitical figure is able to come and "force" the fighting parties to retreat from frozen negotiations and get again to make an new election.
as a spaniard I feel that there is a lot of important nuances which hasn't been covered in the video, maybe is because in this election there are A LOT of important nuances in general and cover them all would take a 1h video, but anyways.
Yes but to get all the nuances you'd basically have to have a Spanish history lesson from 1931 (maybe 1923) onward, so I don't think they have time.
@@sam1111979 no but big ones:
I think foreigners, particularly european would listen this and ask, "why is not posible a center-left and center-right coalition" I think answering that, even briefly would have been useful
also talking a little bit about who are this tiny parties which supported sanchez in the past (particularly ERC, since in the video it could make people think that Junts are the only catalonian independentists, and that sanchez has never had to deal with independentists before, Bildu and its controversies with ETA, and meybe PNV and the fact that they used to go both ways but not anymore because of VOX)