Just discovered your channel and subscribed. Very thoughtful and insightful content. I lived in Taiwan from 1988 to 2004, and I agree with your take on the cross straight situation. In fact, my (Taiwanese) wife and I plan to retire to Taiwan in a few more years … in 2027, in fact (the same year that mainland China says it wants to be ready to invade Taiwan). I’d say there is an 80% chance that China will just continue to put more and more pressure on Taiwan, without an all-out military assault. Such an assault would definitely be a slug-fest, one that would very possibly destroy the Chinese economy. Their main objective may be to keep the Taiwanese “separatists” in line. A very Taoist strategy.
Would agree with you one year ago. But the situation has changed, China economic is struggling, trade and development is being curtailed by US sanctions. If the DPP wins next year, China will act. Fortunately KMT is expected to win and will win for sure if Russia wins in Ukraine. Note, Both Germany and Japan started the war during an economic downturn and economic suppression by its enemies.
@@RichGilbertthis is a cultural absolute for China. Xi wants "respect" over Chinese Sovereignty. And he knows the best course for China is to have Taipei, but not truly rule it.
@@davida7399 that's where people don't understand chinese leaders hubris. their history is full of total fcuk-ups and population massacres, the, extended, 3 kingdoms period is a perfect and relatively well known exemple of this, those 'tards killed so much of their own population that only Serbia in WWI could say "hold my rakija!". mao's beat them by the numbers but seeing how many replacement chinese he had available, that's not even on the same level. even the hard working khmers rouges tried and failed to do better from 1975 to 1979 but it looks like had they had enough time, cambodians would now be on a UN endangered or extinct species list. what's sure is that chinese leaders always throw their population under the -bus- oxcart or tank whatever period you look at and xi is no exception as his _ways are dark_ too and maybe even _darker._ 😒
If you say so. Taiwan is a strategic resource for the US. We depend on Taiwan for our nano semi-conductors. It's also the most militarized country in the world, per capita, after Israel. And yet, they have two political parties: One dedicated to creating one national China and the other to independence. About 51% of Taiwanese favor remaining separate from the Chinese State. 49% consider a peaceful resolution preferable. When Rich says that China is opportunistic, he means they would happily empower Russia and Iran to cause mischief in Europe and the Middle East and then launch an attack. This is not their preference. But they are willing.
@@davida7399 they've also seen how "peaceful resolution" went for Tibet, Macao and Hong Kong or how the CPC treats successful businessmen in communist occupied Western Taiwan... 🧐👆
@@RichGilbertTaiwan has been part of China since the Qing Dynasty, well before it was taken by the Japanese in 1895. The people there are ethnically Chinese. For a smart guy, you seem to be willfully ignorant on this topic.
Fact. Taipei is very well defended, better organized and have very strong natural barriers. China's pride hinges on this, but pride is worth only so much in black eyes and broken ribs. This will get resolved in a manner giving Taipei more functional independence than was given Hong Kong. All Parties including the US we depend on Taipei for micro and nano semi-conductor industry. Done right, this should create a natural cooperation between China and the US to the detriment of Russia. As Rich pointed out, this has been considered in micro steps by both "Chinas" since Nixon and Kissinger began their three way superpower diplomacy with big China in 1972.
@bowenzhang_no1 that's the plan. But this technology is no accident. They are well ahead of us in nano semiconductors. Without Taipei, smartphones will become tablets. The effort to innovate this technology is under way. Whoever made a point of Tibet can also look at Hong Kong. There is dialogue ongoing about peaceful union. Admittedly, in the long term, no one can guess what will happen. But, both sides know this situation will be resolved in the next 4 years. In 4 years, Taipei is expected to develop their own nuclear technology. China is determined to have union by then.
I did enjoy that. Thank you. The strategies you described, make sense to me. Political, the cheapest with biggest reward.
Just discovered your channel and subscribed. Very thoughtful and insightful content. I lived in Taiwan from 1988 to 2004, and I agree with your take on the cross straight situation. In fact, my (Taiwanese) wife and I plan to retire to Taiwan in a few more years … in 2027, in fact (the same year that mainland China says it wants to be ready to invade Taiwan). I’d say there is an 80% chance that China will just continue to put more and more pressure on Taiwan, without an all-out military assault. Such an assault would definitely be a slug-fest, one that would very possibly destroy the Chinese economy. Their main objective may be to keep the Taiwanese “separatists” in line. A very Taoist strategy.
send the Chinese fairies! oh. Ferries. Those too.
I think Tinkerbell is a Disney property, no?
@@RichGilbert so is Winnie the Pooh, so is Winnie the Pooh... 😏
Haha. I see what you did there! Can’t say that in china! 😂
@@RichGilbert is there really a difference anymore regarding freedom of speech between CPC occupied Western Taiwan and occupied Disney?
Would agree with you one year ago. But the situation has changed, China economic is struggling, trade and development is being curtailed by US sanctions.
If the DPP wins next year, China will act. Fortunately KMT is expected to win and will win for sure if Russia wins in Ukraine.
Note, Both Germany and Japan started the war during an economic downturn and economic suppression by its enemies.
Not sure where you get KMT will win…
China's gpd is 5.5%, very well balanced and according to every economic indicator very healthy.
We know the data coming out of China is fake
@@RichGilbertthis is a cultural absolute for China. Xi wants "respect" over Chinese Sovereignty. And he knows the best course for China is to have Taipei, but not truly rule it.
@@davida7399 that's where people don't understand chinese leaders hubris. their history is full of total fcuk-ups and population massacres, the, extended, 3 kingdoms period is a perfect and relatively well known exemple of this, those 'tards killed so much of their own population that only Serbia in WWI could say "hold my rakija!". mao's beat them by the numbers but seeing how many replacement chinese he had available, that's not even on the same level. even the hard working khmers rouges tried and failed to do better from 1975 to 1979 but it looks like had they had enough time, cambodians would now be on a UN endangered or extinct species list. what's sure is that chinese leaders always throw their population under the -bus- oxcart or tank whatever period you look at and xi is no exception as his _ways are dark_ too and maybe even _darker._ 😒
Go China!!!
As a Taiwanese and majority of us, we are NOT Chinese !! We are Taiwanese.
It’s clearly a debate going on in Taiwan that the Chinese communist party would like to exploit
Enlighten me. Define "Taiwanese". Same as "Shanghainese"?
I born in Taiwan and I'm Chinese, period!
that's a pretty silly view
So was evolution at one time…
If you say so. Taiwan is a strategic resource for the US. We depend on Taiwan for our nano semi-conductors. It's also the most militarized country in the world, per capita, after Israel.
And yet, they have two political parties: One dedicated to creating one national China and the other to independence. About 51% of Taiwanese favor remaining separate from the Chinese State. 49% consider a peaceful resolution preferable.
When Rich says that China is opportunistic, he means they would happily empower Russia and Iran to cause mischief in Europe and the Middle East and then launch an attack. This is not their preference. But they are willing.
@@davida7399 they've also seen how "peaceful resolution" went for Tibet, Macao and Hong Kong or how the CPC treats successful businessmen in communist occupied Western Taiwan... 🧐👆
Taipei or Taiwan it’s China 🇨🇳 ever China 🇨🇳
Hard argument to make when it was only ever a province for 10 years in the late 1800s before being handed over to Japan
@@RichGilbertTaiwan has been part of China since the Qing Dynasty, well before it was taken by the Japanese in 1895. The people there are ethnically Chinese. For a smart guy, you seem to be willfully ignorant on this topic.
he's a 👃🏼
Fact. Taipei is very well defended, better organized and have very strong natural barriers. China's pride hinges on this, but pride is worth only so much in black eyes and broken ribs. This will get resolved in a manner giving Taipei more functional independence than was given Hong Kong. All Parties including the US we depend on Taipei for micro and nano semi-conductor industry.
Done right, this should create a natural cooperation between China and the US to the detriment of Russia.
As Rich pointed out, this has been considered in micro steps by both "Chinas" since Nixon and Kissinger began their three way superpower diplomacy with big China in 1972.
Why not make everything, chips included, made in the US?
@@bowenzhang_no1 'merkuns are too fat and entitled for that to happen nowadays. 😬
@bowenzhang_no1 that's the plan. But this technology is no accident. They are well ahead of us in nano semiconductors. Without Taipei, smartphones will become tablets.
The effort to innovate this technology is under way. Whoever made a point of Tibet can also look at Hong Kong.
There is dialogue ongoing about peaceful union. Admittedly, in the long term, no one can guess what will happen.
But, both sides know this situation will be resolved in the next 4 years. In 4 years, Taipei is expected to develop their own nuclear technology.
China is determined to have union by then.