Lesson might be to always consider alternative ‘paths’ to victory - I got the impression you were only seeing your future roads across the middle and then the additional point from the city since there wasn’t space for another settlement in the middle (and those ores were burning a hole in your pocket). Only later on did you mention the option of going down the coast (always worth considering anyway) to allow space for a settlement. I think if you had considered the scenic coastal path as one of the options for your road earlier on then you’d have checked to see if you could build a settlement with all those cards! When trying to solve the “can I win this turn” scenario, I like to consider the resources I’m missing, and work out which solutions require the least of those resources. After 2vp for the road, your 10th point can only come from a city, a settlement or blind draw a vp. You were only missing wheat, but considered the only option that needed two wheats, and ignored the two options that only needed one wheat! (Me shouting at a video on my phone implies great content, right? :P ) Awesome video as always, thanks Dyl!
@Benjamin Johnson Love the long response! Indeed! We should’ve really slowed down on that turn and considered the options. In practice matches, I’m one of the slowest players because I try and think about all my options to avoid this type of situations. The turn timer doesn’t help, but it’s a bad excuse for missing the win.
This is one of my favorite videos of yours. I like it the most because you explained the ore weat sheep game so well that i knew player like me could understand everything. Thank you so much for all your videos.
@Clarence Leung Build 3 roads downwards towards the 3 sheep (taking longest road). Hand remains: 3 wood, 3 sheep, 4 ore. 4:1 ore for brick and build a settlement for the 10th point. Edit: also you have to 2:1 wood for wheat for the settlement.
This is the most entertaining video concept you have... would love to see more of these, planning to join your patreon soon, rooting for ya to be able to make this a full time gig 🤙🤙
On your first turn you roll a 7, and would have had a 50% chance to steal an ore from Green for a city. Wouldn't that extra 25% chance be worth the trade off for not slowing Red?
@sdrawkcab190 Really interesting thought. I think I’d still rather try my best and ensure that red can’t get the spot. I’ve got 7 points of ore and delaying a city for a turn or so doesn’t hurt. I feel like if I can make someone a “dead” player right off the bat, I’ll take it.
@ApplepieFTW Yea that was a large part of why I won the game so easily. I think the other big mistake was 4th player missing the 5/6/9 + 10/9/11 placement leaving me with a very very strong spot.
The chance of pulling a monopoly if you pull 5 Devs in a deck of 25 is 1 - (20*19 / (25*24)) = 37 % How to get this, the chance of pulling a monopoly is 2/25, therefore the chance of not pulling is 23/25. To not get a mono during every pull is (23/25)*(22/24)*(21/23)*(20/22)*(19/21) since the deck size shrinks each time we pull a card, and the numerator stays at 2 less than deck size since we're assuming we're not pulling a mono each time. This reduces to (20*19) / (25*24) Which gives about a 63 % chance that you don't pull a mono, meaning if you do 1 minus that value, you get the chance of pulling a mono after 5 pulls. TLDR chance of pulling a mono after 5 pulls is about 37 %
If they have a "playable" development card, the square icon will show "..." as in they have an action they can do besides the dice. If they have a victory point, the square icon will only show the dice because they can't play the development card. Therefore, we can assume it's a victory point.
@@DyLightedCatan That's.... a pretty substantial bug! I'd keep my eye out for it, but it would be bad practice to get in habit of for over the board play... Similar to the game logs
@@Thungon Agreed. I try not to look for the bug and not use the game log to track resources. In the end, there is no game log for tournaments which is what I'm practicing for.
Thanks for asking. I'll give you some basic tips instead of making a full video. - Trade freely for the resources you don't produce. - Aim to get at LEAST 3 out of 5 resources - Make sure you place on resources that synergize together(ore/wheat and wood/brick) - Get on a port Good luck!
If I was fourth (Red) I would have put my settlements on 6 9 5 and 10 11 9, playing the city game, trying to get to that 3:1 port. Just my opinion. Wheat is way more important than sheep anyway
Yup yup. I made this video weeks ago but yea I agree getting that extra source of wheat is more important. I didn't convey it very well, but the reason for suggesting the 5/6/9 + 10/2/11 was because I'd point the road to the 10/9 and the road to the 5/2 3:1 port. With that being said, the 5/6/9 and the 10/11/9 is the safer play.
At 7:30 when making a city, what makes you choose the 5/10/8 upgrade rather than the 10/11/9? I was thinking the 10/11/9 was better since even though that ore was worse (3 pips to 4 pips), it would be blocked less often due to sharing it with 2 other players. Am I perhaps undervaluing the double sheep here?
Hi I have one question about your game log / chat combination. How do you get this. At my desktop I have to chose which one I want to have open. In your version it looks like a browser with two windows in-between you can switch easily. Is it a mod? Tyvm
@@DyLightedCatan ty for the fast answer, and iam glad that you understand my point, iam not a natural speaker :D But year this was in my mind. Nice downgrade lol
A very big mistake by me. I really should've slowed down that turn. What's a good summary/title for the lesson? When you have multiple cards, check to see if you can win?
@@DyLightedCatan I did the maths and got a different answer. The chance of getting at least one monopoly card =1- The chance of not getting any monopoly cards. I'm going to start by working out the chance of buying 6 dev cards in the row, and for none of the to be a monopoly card. For your first development card you buy, for it not to be a monopoly card it has to be one of the 23 cards that aren't a monopoly card. There are a total of 25 cards, so the chance you get a non-monopoly first card is 23/25. Similar logic applies to the second card, and there are 22 cards you can get out of 24, making the probability 22/24. The chance your third card is also non-monopoly is 21/23, fourth is 20/22, fifth is 19/21, and sixth is 18/20. So the chance that all these events happen, and that none of your cards are monopoly is (23/25)*(22/24)*(21/23)*(20/22)*(19/21)*(18/20)=0.57. Therefore, the chance of getting at least one monopoly card =1-0.57=0.43.
@@wasimahmed919 So: 1 - (23/25)*(22/24)*(21/23)*(20/22)*(19/21)*(18/20) Which simplifies to: 1 - (19*18)/(25*24) = 43% The trouble is this calculation is only true when starting with a full deck of development cards. If any have already been bought, the result will be a bit different.
@@ethan- only if any have been bought and revealed, or bought and highly suspected to be VP. If someone has just bought a dev card but had no opportunity to use it, it doesn't affect the odds because we have no information on what it is, and may as well just be the card at the bottom of the deck that we wouldn't draw anyway
Awesome video man! At 14:50 you considered buying development cards in hindsight, but you recognized you were too unstoppable. How do you recognize 'being unstoppable'? Asking for a friend xD
I mean we’re the only person who has cities, we also have a port, we also have 2 ore spots along with 2 wheat spots, along with the best wheat access in the game. Our plan is to eventually get largest army too and we’re very setup to do so.
I really like 11 point wins. Feels more worthwhile :-) I have managed one 12 point win ever, and was really happy with that, but, of course, no-one should let you do that.
They fixed it, but basically you can identify victory points based on if there’s a “dice icon” or “... icon” before someone rolls and they have a development card. Dice icon = VP ... icon = playable development card
Good Video. Didn't know about the VP bug and trick of waiting to see what others get rid of. 3 roads plus settle for the win.(not in the middles 4 for 1 the ore. But you're so far ahead.
At the start of purple's turn, you can see they do not have the option to play a development card. This means their development card must be a victory point.
sorry, this is totally random, but does anyone else think that your friends voice sounds exactly like elon musk? Maybe its also just an accent, I'm not from the states, so I can't tell...
Been watching your videos and thoroughly enjoy them. Only thing I don't like is Groundhog is very commanding in what you do. I wanna see you play on your own accord. Groundhog is constantly telling you no and telling you what to do. It's just annoying to me. Just my two cents though
That’s me, and ya I agree looking back haha. Caught up in the game and what I would do in various spots. Today it would be quite different as things evolve 👍
![“อ.เบียร์ คนตื่นธรรม” มาตามคำเรียกร้อง แหกศาสตร์ฮวงจุ้ย เตือนสติอย่างมงาย | แฉ 7 พ.ย. 67 [1/3]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/5fc4S3xBNfc/mqdefault.jpg)
Lesson might be to always consider alternative ‘paths’ to victory - I got the impression you were only seeing your future roads across the middle and then the additional point from the city since there wasn’t space for another settlement in the middle (and those ores were burning a hole in your pocket). Only later on did you mention the option of going down the coast (always worth considering anyway) to allow space for a settlement. I think if you had considered the scenic coastal path as one of the options for your road earlier on then you’d have checked to see if you could build a settlement with all those cards!
When trying to solve the “can I win this turn” scenario, I like to consider the resources I’m missing, and work out which solutions require the least of those resources. After 2vp for the road, your 10th point can only come from a city, a settlement or blind draw a vp. You were only missing wheat, but considered the only option that needed two wheats, and ignored the two options that only needed one wheat!
(Me shouting at a video on my phone implies great content, right? :P )
Awesome video as always, thanks Dyl!
@Benjamin Johnson Love the long response! Indeed! We should’ve really slowed down on that turn and considered the options. In practice matches, I’m one of the slowest players because I try and think about all my options to avoid this type of situations. The turn timer doesn’t help, but it’s a bad excuse for missing the win.
I really like you two together! Two magic brains at work, we can learn so much! Thanks for doing this!
This is one of my favorite videos of yours. I like it the most because you explained the ore weat sheep game so well that i knew player like me could understand everything. Thank you so much for all your videos.
Thought I heard you say "13 daughters", and was thinking wtf kind of expansion pack is this?
Hahaha yea I was trying to say 13 "dotters" but totally understand where you would get lost.
@@DyLightedCatan ladies and gentlemen... we got him
It took me an embarassingly long time to work out how you would have won a turn early, I wouldn't have seen that if I was playing myself!
At least you worked it out and didn't miss it like us! Good job!
@@DyLightedCatan Well it wasn't THAT easy to see!
@Aaron Hann Hahahaha maybe you’re right :)
still can't see it :/ could someone explain?
@Clarence Leung Build 3 roads downwards towards the 3 sheep (taking longest road). Hand remains: 3 wood, 3 sheep, 4 ore. 4:1 ore for brick and build a settlement for the 10th point.
Edit: also you have to 2:1 wood for wheat for the settlement.
This is the most entertaining video concept you have... would love to see more of these, planning to join your patreon soon, rooting for ya to be able to make this a full time gig 🤙🤙
Thank you very much!
On your first turn you roll a 7, and would have had a 50% chance to steal an ore from Green for a city. Wouldn't that extra 25% chance be worth the trade off for not slowing Red?
@sdrawkcab190 Really interesting thought. I think I’d still rather try my best and ensure that red can’t get the spot. I’ve got 7 points of ore and delaying a city for a turn or so doesn’t hurt. I feel like if I can make someone a “dead” player right off the bat, I’ll take it.
So essentially, purple choosing a headass first spot pretty much guaranteed you the win
@ApplepieFTW Yea that was a large part of why I won the game so easily. I think the other big mistake was 4th player missing the 5/6/9 + 10/9/11 placement leaving me with a very very strong spot.
The chance of pulling a monopoly if you pull 5 Devs in a deck of 25 is
1 - (20*19 / (25*24)) = 37 %
How to get this, the chance of pulling a monopoly is 2/25, therefore the chance of not pulling is 23/25. To not get a mono during every pull is (23/25)*(22/24)*(21/23)*(20/22)*(19/21) since the deck size shrinks each time we pull a card, and the numerator stays at 2 less than deck size since we're assuming we're not pulling a mono each time.
This reduces to (20*19) / (25*24)
Which gives about a 63 % chance that you don't pull a mono, meaning if you do 1 minus that value, you get the chance of pulling a mono after 5 pulls.
TLDR chance of pulling a mono after 5 pulls is about 37 %
5:16 stupid play imo. Dude really left the 6/9/12 open. It would've been killer
The game was literally over before it started, haha. They all had highly suspect placements, and your O/W/S was overwhelming.
@about 8:10 you just assume purple has a victory point due to a bug. I spot nothing... what's happening?
Also, who really needs a settlement on a 3 sheep, am I right? :) I really enjoy these videos! I gain a lot from them, ty for sharing!
If they have a "playable" development card, the square icon will show "..." as in they have an action they can do besides the dice. If they have a victory point, the square icon will only show the dice because they can't play the development card. Therefore, we can assume it's a victory point.
@@DyLightedCatan That's.... a pretty substantial bug! I'd keep my eye out for it, but it would be bad practice to get in habit of for over the board play... Similar to the game logs
@@Thungon Also yup! The port was useless for purple, therefore we wanted the person who can utilize it less to get to the port.
@@Thungon Agreed. I try not to look for the bug and not use the game log to track resources. In the end, there is no game log for tournaments which is what I'm practicing for.
I would’ve gone 5o/4b/8s for start and point towards wheat port. Same dots on same resources but better placement for wheat port as a 3/8 s
Can you make a video on why having all 5 resources isn't necessary and what you could do if you only have like 3 or 4 of them?
Thanks for asking. I'll give you some basic tips instead of making a full video.
- Trade freely for the resources you don't produce. - Aim to get at LEAST 3 out of 5 resources
- Make sure you place on resources that synergize together(ore/wheat and wood/brick)
- Get on a port
Good luck!
Orange should not have built that road to the coast, he just needed one road to get longest road
If I was fourth (Red) I would have put my settlements on 6 9 5 and 10 11 9, playing the city game, trying to get to that 3:1 port. Just my opinion. Wheat is way more important than sheep anyway
Yup yup. I made this video weeks ago but yea I agree getting that extra source of wheat is more important.
I didn't convey it very well, but the reason for suggesting the 5/6/9 + 10/2/11 was because I'd point the road to the 10/9 and the road to the 5/2 3:1 port. With that being said, the 5/6/9 and the 10/11/9 is the safer play.
Your vids are so entertaining lol
@Jota Thank you!
DylLighted - Catan no, thank you!
Would've taken me awhile to figure out I could win that turn, never punished though!
At 7:30 when making a city, what makes you choose the 5/10/8 upgrade rather than the 10/11/9?
I was thinking the 10/11/9 was better since even though that ore was worse (3 pips to 4 pips), it would be blocked less often due to sharing it with 2 other players.
Am I perhaps undervaluing the double sheep here?
Hi I have one question about your game log / chat combination.
How do you get this. At my desktop I have to chose which one I want to have open.
In your version it looks like a browser with two windows in-between you can switch easily.
Is it a mod?
Tyvm
This is an old version of Catan Universe so this is no longer available
@@DyLightedCatan ty for the fast answer, and iam glad that you understand my point, iam not a natural speaker :D
But year this was in my mind. Nice downgrade lol
Not seeing, that you are able to win is a really big mistake, thats a good lesson 🤐
A very big mistake by me. I really should've slowed down that turn.
What's a good summary/title for the lesson?
When you have multiple cards, check to see if you can win?
@@DyLightedCatan Yeah thats a good win 👍
Worth noting there's a 39.4% chance that you'll have at least one monopoly card when buying 6 dev cards.
Thanks for doing the math! How’d you get the number?
@@DyLightedCatan I did the maths and got a different answer. The chance of getting at least one monopoly card =1- The chance of not getting any monopoly cards.
I'm going to start by working out the chance of buying 6 dev cards in the row, and for none of the to be a monopoly card. For your first development card you buy, for it not to be a monopoly card it has to be one of the 23 cards that aren't a monopoly card. There are a total of 25 cards, so the chance you get a non-monopoly first card is 23/25. Similar logic applies to the second card, and there are 22 cards you can get out of 24, making the probability 22/24. The chance your third card is also non-monopoly is 21/23, fourth is 20/22, fifth is 19/21, and sixth is 18/20. So the chance that all these events happen, and that none of your cards are monopoly is (23/25)*(22/24)*(21/23)*(20/22)*(19/21)*(18/20)=0.57.
Therefore, the chance of getting at least one monopoly card =1-0.57=0.43.
@@wasimahmed919 So: 1 - (23/25)*(22/24)*(21/23)*(20/22)*(19/21)*(18/20)
Which simplifies to: 1 - (19*18)/(25*24) = 43%
The trouble is this calculation is only true when starting with a full deck of development cards. If any have already been bought, the result will be a bit different.
@@ethan- only if any have been bought and revealed, or bought and highly suspected to be VP. If someone has just bought a dev card but had no opportunity to use it, it doesn't affect the odds because we have no information on what it is, and may as well just be the card at the bottom of the deck that we wouldn't draw anyway
@@maxeverett5976 yep
Awesome video man! At 14:50 you considered buying development cards in hindsight, but you recognized you were too unstoppable. How do you recognize 'being unstoppable'?
Asking for a friend xD
I mean we’re the only person who has cities, we also have a port, we also have 2 ore spots along with 2 wheat spots, along with the best wheat access in the game. Our plan is to eventually get largest army too and we’re very setup to do so.
It is in the title of the video. Strong ore/wheat/sheep
25:33, how do you win?
25:52 is the spot. Take longest road and build a settlement using the wood port and 4:1 ore. That’s 10 points.
@@DyLightedCatan genius... go down instead of across and you can build the settlement. Love the videos, thanks for the quick response.
@dyILghted do you play cities and knights?
I really like 11 point wins. Feels more worthwhile :-) I have managed one 12 point win ever, and was really happy with that, but, of course, no-one should let you do that.
Do you use card stack mode?
8:27 Does anyone know what victory point bug he is talking about here?
8:31 what bug?
They fixed it, but basically you can identify victory points based on if there’s a “dice icon” or “... icon” before someone rolls and they have a development card.
Dice icon = VP
... icon = playable development card
Good Video. Didn't know about the VP bug and trick of waiting to see what others get rid of. 3 roads plus settle for the win.(not in the middles 4 for 1 the ore. But you're so far ahead.
Charles Tetrault Yup, I recognized that mistake. You also have to use the wood port in order for that to work.
8:40 what's the bug?
At the start of purple's turn, you can see they do not have the option to play a development card. This means their development card must be a victory point.
@@williamlumme9961 oh, that's pretty bad!
sorry, this is totally random, but does anyone else think that your friends voice sounds exactly like elon musk? Maybe its also just an accent, I'm not from the states, so I can't tell...
Been watching your videos and thoroughly enjoy them. Only thing I don't like is Groundhog is very commanding in what you do. I wanna see you play on your own accord. Groundhog is constantly telling you no and telling you what to do. It's just annoying to me. Just my two cents though
That’s me, and ya I agree looking back haha. Caught up in the game and what I would do in various spots. Today it would be quite different as things evolve 👍
I thought you said this dude was good at Catan?
Hahaha, even the best make mistakes. I promise you he's beaten me many many times.
I would love to play y’all sometime
@@ericbrown2480 Of course! Join the discord and I occasionally ask people to play some games with me.