Where China dominates an industrial sector, there is always an eco system at work. China has perfected the art of building industrial eco systems. I would bet on the success of this new semiconductor eco system
Encouraging news about the new emerging chip eco-system platform in China - with active government planning and support, China will become the world’s one and only leading chip manufacturer in the foreseeable future. Good luck China 👍👍👍
@@老外-s7f you are so dead wrong. If what you said has any truth to that, how can you explain china advancements like quantum communication? China is the first country to launch a working quantum communication satellite in 2016?
@@yunko9369 You are 100% wrong CCP made China a factory for Cheap goods.. for example here in the middle east all high quality Cars/Phones/Computers/airplanes/ medications are not Chinese. Get out of your cave and face reality 🤣
@@老外-s7f Previously China was once a dirt-poor, war-torn, starving country in the past. Over 70 years ago, literally *nobody thought "communist" China would ever succeed* or play an important role in global politics, yet fast forward till today and look at how far China has come under communist party leadership. China has since transformed into the world's 2nd largest economy, the world's factory (Made-in-China), having the world's 2nd largest R&D spending, protected by the world's largest land army, the People's Liberation Army, funded by the world's 2nd largest military spending. And it's all been achieved under communist party leadership, despite Western anti-China propaganda constantly denouncing China's success all along.
@@Shenzhou. You are faking China's history 😂 China is a great nation before CCP. CCP kept China poor till Deng Xiaoping gave up on Communism and let China become partially capitalist 🤣
That was an exceptionally good presentation. China is creating an ecosystem to dominate a lot of chip production and it will make the world even more dependent on China as the center of the world's manufacturing.
meanwhile, Intel has spent $90 billion dollars not to expand production facilities but rather on stock buybacks wow, what a winning strategy! mainstream media told me so!
Dependent on china, what does that mean? Read some history so you know when there was a time where most nations make their own shit........result most got hardly any shit.
Independency is just an idea. These chips are made to go inside manufactured products and where are these products made mostly? China. Unless the West is going to compete in making these products too, where are their chips going to end up?
@@rickoffee No, the Chinese have lived in isolation for many periods of its history. Of course not ideal but it won’t be fatal. It won’t be China’s choice, it’s the US that likes to cause trouble.
Some scientists believe we are approaching the physical limitations of just how small we can manufacture chips. As chips get smaller and smaller each year, beyond a certain size, transistors start to lose their function, because of the quantum tunneling effect allowing electrons to leap through the gate. At 1 nanometer, we reach the smallest size a silicon-chip can go, since the source and the drain of a transistor is just 2 silicon atoms across! At that point, TMSC (if it's still around by) may become obsolete if chips cannot shrink any further, so another promising solution to circumvent this problem is to switch to carbon-based chips.
Yeah, right! I have heard such "doomsday" projections before as well. I remember a time when the CCP fanboys were gung-ho about the super-duper made in PRC "Godson" Intel x86 clone flooding into the market and resulting in a "massive" loss of business for Intel! 😅😂🤣
Despite the chip shortage, Chinese EVs dont seem to be affected. I think European EVs are more badly hit. Besides, for cars 14nm chips is adequate. As for mobile phones, China brands are still coming out with new designs and innovation early this year. Over in South East Asia, Chinese Mobile Phone Brand Dealers are being told that supplies for new models will arrive in April. My guess is new innovation in Mobile Phones not necessarily needs the 3 or 5nm chips. A 7nm chip would be adequate. Further, i think China will be self sufficient in Chips by mid of next year and if the rumour about photonic & graphene chips development are true, then ASML may not be relevant. Huawei is also slowly moving away from mobile phones production, not to say it will abandon it. Another thing, TSMC or Samsung or Intel and the other chip makers, their big capacity would mean nothing if the Brands of End Products do not have the sales volume. At the present moment, Chinese Brands are monopolizing. Thus, the US sanctions will only blow up in its face. China also has very good network of supply chain while the US do not, not to mention US is already behind in technology by 5 years. Most of the brains in almost every industry is in China now, not forgetting the 5G tech. US does not have 5G and is fooling its public. Someone tested the speed in US recently in several location and the network is transmitting at 4G on steroids although indicated as 5G on phone. Huawei is already experimenting on 6G.
I rather have a iPhone with an A15 chip than what you put in the low end phones. Can't compete with the best and even high end Chinese consumers won't buy the slower cheaper Chinese phone.
Have you seen what is the global mobile ranking of Huawei recently? I do not see them in top 10 these days. Plus development of GPU and ARM chips.. processing coupled with power usage efficiency seems to also be as critical as the download speed with 5G network.. anything out of China? Perhaps China can be more collaborative and reintegrated back to the global technology road map.. will be good for everyone..
Your discussion is so well -researched and "spot-on." This pulled together all my thoughts about the genesis of this "semiconductor shortage." I agree with you that much of this may be attributed to the pandemic; however, "Our National Moron's" efforts to put "China Incorporated" out of business laid the ground work for this disaster. This fiasco has only galvanized China to create and develop their own semiconductor industry to become more self sufficient. I realize they are behind with respect to the West but I am sure they will remedy this problem with more STEM graduates coming out of their universities than any other country. It troubles me that TSMC and ASML (among others) have become America's lap dog and may regret this when China should overcome whatever roadblocks the West have imposed. China as you know has a very long memory! Last time I visited Shenzhen in 85' population ~300K . Today's population ~13 million (+40X growth). This exemplifies China's phenomenal growth and progress! Thank-you for your clear concise analysis Pascal!
My pleasure. I feel ASML at least would have no problem to deliver to China, but they too are dependent on US components, and so they have to play along whether they want or not. For TSMC there are similarities too.
@@PascalCoppens Your 'own' Begian IMEC which you do not give props it deserves (#13:49) also has withdrawn any substantive research capabilities from China has an industry fronteir 'roadmap' which i do not see how China can 'leapfrog'. China has been trying to develop tool ecosystems 'Made in China' initiative for half a dozen years and does not show success on their own roadmap. This is far different from providing Steve Jobs with IPhone manufacturing facilities in about 1 1/2 years; that is China's strength. i understand your love of the concept of a state-sponsored decentralized ecosystem but i do not see the innovation you propose it will develop ---- somewhat magical thinking it seems. On what analysis / data does this future projection rest?
@@kevinkanter2537 agree with you Kevin. These bozos are speaking completely out of their league and they have no clue about how semi industry works. China is trying by stealing and copying, not by innovating. The West is successful because of innovation, not because of copying and trying to “replace them” and calling it a victory which is ALL China is doing in EVERY industry. As long as the West protects whatever it innovated and continues to innovate, China has zero chance of success. China has zero chance in the next 20 yrs to catch up TSMC let alone ASML, so they maybe thinking something evil like starting a war to change their odds
Besides going after high end silicon based chips measured in nanometers, the industry is also diversifying into other type of materials. For example silicon carbide and gallium nitride that are needed for the cars, 5G and other high growth applications. In addition, there are also application specific chips, eg, for AI and also things like photonic chips that the west don’t yet have a monopoly on the technology yet. China is doubling up its efforts in these new sectors and potentially be able to leapfrog the west so that they can not be blackmailed anymore in the future.
Production processes too. Shanghai Electric-owned SMEE (Shanghai Micro-Electronic Equipment) and even privately owned Advantools, based in Tianjin and machine tool maker Han's Laser Group already have lithography machines as part of their product line-up
Agreed. It may take years but I am sure with a determined and smart workforce with a strong government behind, it will come true sooner than you thought.
From what I have heard SMEE has already made 28nm lithography machines and the only thing left is to mass produces them Also they would be able to make 7nm chips even with DUV as TSMC was able to make 7nm chips even with DUV machines I have also heard that China is on the verge of making EUV lithography machines as well
Thanks again for your videos. I live in the US., But I'm sick of their politics. They don't have a plan..It gets changed every time their is a new president while the people pay for all the wasted efforts, unless it's to upgrade their war machine. I like China more and more the more I learn about the country. 5yr plans are needed so much here also.
@@老外-s7f Instead of just saying this channel belong to CCP, why not list what he presented as not the fact and is biased in favor of China? Without facts to support what you said, this will only make you a liar and a troll.
@@yunko9369 He works for CGTN/CCP that is why he is biased. Tiny Taiwan is better than giant CCP's China because CCP killed innovation.. do not cry ! !😀 maybe 50 years later CCP will catch up with Taiwan's chips 😂
@@bobsmith3983 and yet China is still having city-wide lockdowns. Whereas every other country in the world is pretty much back to normal. The US response was pathetic but that doesn't mean it was the only country to mishandle COVID. Keep seeing only what you want to see, you'll never go far.
We live in a world of IOT (Internet of Things) where your smartphone can literally talk to your washing machine, so there's bound to be a shortage of chips. Chips have become so integral to our society, that it's too dangerous to leave the manufacture of chips to just a few top players.
Europe doesn't have much microchip manufacturing and the U.S. has outsourced most of their microchip manufacturing to Asia. And I heard that China has spent huge amounts of money and resources on semiconductor R&D for over a decade, so they are probably way ahead of the curve today.
Well they are not. SMIC has been stuck at 28 nm forever and there's zero indication it'll ever do better than that. But hey, it's still better than Russia, stuck at 90 nm...
@Nicolau Poceiro Ideally these competitions drive everyone to get better, for the benefits of all mankind. Better than arms race, or cold war politics to exaggerate differences pushing people to war.
China is one country and it has good planning and execution supported by a skillful set of qualified engineers in the hundreds of thousands. Even the universities and research labs are playing their part. For other country to built such eco system, it's just not so easy. Every piece of the supply chains numbering hundreds of components have to be assigned, agreed and allocated. Disputes and financial resources with capacity and capabilities have to be discussed and sorted out. Every sovereign nations will have their own interest and agenda. I just don't think it will be that easy in a country where govts changed very often. US and India are two fine examples, in which discussions, lobbying, negotiations took more than a decade. In a fast changing tech world, the rollout of digital products wait for no one. Thanks again for your well thought presentation, Pascal.
Ah yes, everything is so easy to "mighty" China... which is why it can't make a chip more advanced than 28 nm. Meanwhile those "inferior" foreign nations have somehow managed to make 5 nm chip factories and better. Makes sense.
@@bobsmith3983 kid, this is my industry. China made a prototype chip using 16 multiple exposures at 28 nm to reach 7 nm. Meaning it's well over 16 times more expensive than true 7 nm. Meaning it's worthless if you're trying to compete with the rest of the world. It's a propaganda trick and you, not being an electrical engineer, gobbled it up. Hook, line and sinker. China steals every IP in the world. If it could produce 7 nm chips, nVidia, Intel and AMD would all have gone bankrupt. Bit of advice : if you only see what you want to see, you will lose.
I still believe in globalization. If we produce everything by ourselves, it won't be efficient. In the end, our products won't be competitive, because of high cost.
No way! China should be self sufficient and self contained. They should never rely on any other country for a product. Primarily due to sanctions against them.
@@thetreekeeper143 Yes, in case of chips, China have to self sufficient because of restriction from US. But, China don't have to produce everything. For example: Srilanka produce one the best tea in the world. Indonesia produce palm oil for industry. Thailand produce best silk. etc. China can not produce and export everything to the world, but buy nothing. Trade is buy and sell, win-win solutions. Globalization = Efficiency.
@@thetreekeeper143 Another example is face mask. In the beginning of the pandemic, politician in US complain. Why we don't produce ourselves, such vital health care. So, they start to produce face mask. But, the result is expensive products. No body want to buy it. And the factory also can't give it for free. Even the government, finally buy KN-95 from China.
Pascal, this is a well researched piece but let me offer an alternative view since I have spent some years in the chip and electronic industry. When China propose a new chip ecosystem, it is not about a chip sourcing environment. That low skill environment already exist. Since it already exist, I believe it is about the chip design and manufacturing ecosystem. Here we are talking about design standards and open discussion groups. Design software and component and module definitions that enables collaboration, this is at the moment dominated by the US which drives the definition. Customisation services like PLC, ASIC, PLA, Microcontrollers. Processing chemicals and material development and production. Manufacturing automation, workflow and CAD/CAM standards, process equipment development like lithography and basic science supporting it. Development of stock materials like wafers. There is also the packaging and testing.
Thanks Pascal, for a most informative video. China is as trustworthy as any other producer, if not moreso. As for the China Russia statement post invasion of Ukraine, this is from the boss - 'The Chinese side supports the Russian side in solving the issue through negotiation with the Ukrainian side, Xi said, adding that China has been consistent in its basic position on respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries and abiding by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter'. China can be trusted to follow its own pathway no matter what; this is what a single centralist, principled and disciplined form of governance that has the overwhelming support of its 1.4 billion population can and is doing.
@@robertseaborne5758 how about for people who have outsourced to China and it turned out to be cheap but crappy... and then their products got copied ? How about people like me, who used to order from AliExpress and stopped because half the sellers are crooks ?
@@TheNefastor obviously not a good experience for you, unfortunately this is common throughout the industrial world, not confined to China. Most such outsourcing to China must be viable, otherwise how do we explain the relatively rapid and massive development of its productive force and middle class over recent decades?
How can you go against the people who has the number, more resilient, more determined, more hardworking and smarter than you? Now they're richer too. The outcome is obvious.
Lithography and other chip equipment are the cornerstone to chip manufacturing… such technologies come from an array of international corporations.. intellectual property protection is key to incentivise such corporations to continue to be innovative and progressive.. the world has moved towards collaboration and mutual benefits while upmanship is likely to lead to isolation and stagnation…
I’m afraid that there’s a lot of gaps to fill and catch up with for China to manufacture advanced chips. I still remember that China was only able to manufacture ball point pens on its own 4-5 years ago, after many many years of catch up (the most important breakthrough being ability to churn out steel with high purity). Manufacturing the most advanced chips is much harder and I think it’ll take more time.
Ball point pen is not a key technology that China would want to waste so much money and time in it. So for you to use this example as a gauge of chinese capability is totally wrong. Your comment shows that you have been brainwash by western media to really underestimate the intelligence of your own kind.
Now China just not have to manufacture chips but they have to manufacture high end lithography machine same as asml euv, software tools like candance , various chemical . All these are dominated by USA, EU and Japan
No the chips were used for making entertainment games, computers, portable devices because people are staying at home and they want to use these electronic gadgets to entertain them while being in lockdown a home. Hence fewer chips for cars etc.
9:40 It's not just that there are so _many_ chips in a modern car, it's also that they're not high profit jobs for the foundry(s), so bigger $$ jobs take priority.
The Chinese allocated about $1.48 trillion dollars for the development of their domestic semi-conductor, AI & IoT development. With that kind of resources, it's a matter of when, not if.
Fantastic presentation. The overwhelming majority of chips in critically short supply don't need top end production techniques. Take for example mid-range and low-end microcontrollers which are some of the most challenging to get supplies for at the moment. Something that bothers me about all the money pumping in to new fabs is that is is ultimately start up capital. There are numerous examples of fabs closing down because they are not financially competitive even just after they were built. What happens when these new fabs flood the market with chips causing a crash in prices. Who an operate at the lowest cost? My money is on the Chinese and Taiwanese. It makes me think of the possible cost efficiency of the Chinese semi-conductor project discussed in the video.
I am eager to see whether China can break through the current manufacturing barrier that is to produce under 14nm fab machine . Any chance they able to reduce chip size in the next 2 or 3 years ?. BTW, there hasnt any news about carbon/graphene chip break through. Hope they able to make mobile size for this line of chip soon as it has so much potential to be better than silicon chip.
It'll be interesting if China can apply what was unique and creative about Szenchen to semiconductor fabs. Don't know how that would workk but if someone thinks there's an opportunity there, it would be worth watching. And, as long as China doesn't infringe on patents, then I'm sure industries would at least take a look at what is produced. Part of the problem also though is that Chinese semiconductors even within a particular nm or mm class have not performed as well as those produced in Western and Japanese and South Korean fabs. So for instance, you won't see anyone buying PC memory made in China to put in even common home and small business machines unless they just don't care about performance. At any price, Chinese memory chips just isn't worthwhile. China will need to step up in more ways than the obvious if it's going to do more than dredge the bottom of the marketplace.
China has remained neutral like India and other countries about the war. Why can't a country remain neutral? Do you really think the US's hands are clean?
The nato countries is still a large market for China. But China is slowly opening up new markets in Africa, South American countries, South Asia, n west Asian countries. These markets are relative smaller but will grow to overtake the west in the coming decades. China will wait. The west will decline because of their hegemonic n race superiority attitudes.
Could you make another video about the last export rules by the US administration in October and what they mean for China chip industry for the long run (even though it's very related to the 2 videos you've already made on China chip industry, I know)
The problem with smaller chip foundries is that they are notoriously unprofitable. Also, since america forced tsmc to set up a chip foundry in usa, i am of the opinion that they will forced a scaled down operation of tsmc taiwan operations.
Yes, they are unprofitable and essential to semiconductor supply chain security. EU has very limited need for advanced semiconductors. Intel, AMD, nVidia, Apple, Huawei, Qualcomm... All companies that need advanced chips are outside EU. We do need older chips (most evident need is in cars), but the grandiose announcements from the European commission completely ignore that. I guess it doesn't sound as sexy as "leading edge fab".... I sure hope older node chips from China won't be today's nat. gas from Russia.
Chinese have become leader in most industries that the rest of the (often Western) world considers unprofitable. I see no difference in chip market. Just new paradigm for the world.
@@PascalCoppens Advance chips were easily available from America and Taiwan so China did not focus on chips manufacturing seriously. After USA sanction china took it seriously and doubled its efforts. China is silently developing eco system of advance chips. I am sure China will soon reveal its most advance chips without foreign technologies .
Not to forget that the chip industry depends on rare earth, and who is the dominant supplier of rare earth, CHINA?? This means that the US has to invest also billions of dollars in rare earth production, and the needed environment protection to fight the pollution. Another side effect is, when every one start to make their own chips, that the market will be flooded with chips in the future, which will have impact on the price and consequently the profitability.
Not just silicon based chips but also carbon based chips and photonic chips. Also the lithography equipment. By the end of this year China would likely have achieved self sufficiency and even the manufacturing hub for all kinds of chips - silicon based chips, carbon based chips and even photonic chips, both high end and low end chips would be dominated by China and so too lithography equipment and other chips making equipment.
Once the pandemic backlog is cleared, there's going to be an oversupply in the market with all the expansion going on. But I'm sure taxpayers will in the long run be stuck with the bill if their government footed the expansion bill.
Good video but could be shorter. Lotsa repetition. So basically China is focusing on manufacturing low end less profitable chips used in IOT while designing their own high end high margin chips. I assume the latter will still be made outside China for now?
Thanks for suggesting time. I already reduced many of my videos from 30+ minutes to 20+...;-) The high-end chips will still be manufactured outside China, but for how long is unclear. My estimate is 2030 before China has mostly caught up and at same time alternative high-end designs/production available that are not based on Silicon.
@@PascalCoppens Where do you get the timeline of 8 years to transition to "not based on Silicon" chips - what are you talking about? seriously i love your enthusiasm about a cluster of chip mfg capability i.e. "an ecosystem" but do you also know that that is how all the fabs in the us are organized? Some of the most advanced software for ai-integrated chip / mask design are in the US (and some EU companies)? setting a 'standard' or design (which i guess is what you are referring to) spec is far from implementing that spec. China still can't make tools for chip mfg except some of the most basic deposition ones. I do not see your information on generations of design (even copying) leapfrogging current technology in 8 years; how do you make your future projections?
China must build own technology engineering fields like chip component , why if count on western or USA or Japan supply to China , it can any think happened by sanction stopped supplying chips components to China and also benefits on earth pollution climate , so western go back doing industrial for own country.
There are a couple mistakes in your analysis: - SMIC has a very low market share, also in low-end and most of these chips are consumed domestically. This does not contribute much to the global shortage - Europe does not focus on the very high end with their chips act.
When what was in place was enough, all these new the self sufficiency capacities only mean a glut. In an industry driven by economies of scale like no other where prices fall continuously from launch, the overcapacity can only result in everyone operating quite far below the par line. The cost that we were used to will be a thing of the past until all these capacities fall away, which i believe is inevitable. I cannot envision the huge premiums expect of consumer products holding its place.
China is setting a new paradigm, Chinese are pouring in billions into photonic chips & into graphene manufacturing, which a China is leading. They have also built a mega size litographic machine for domestic consumption at the moment.
When politicians running a country have no idea how international industry and business are interdependent. USA must work together with China for mutual benefit, confrontation will only damage both.
There are now huge investment in the chip industry in China and the west, this is far more capacity than the world needs. China makes 70-80% of the gadget the world uses today and China will give priority to sourcing from China in a splintered global supply chain, new manufacturing centers will appear in other countries but they will likely supply western economies only because of cost competitiveness. China will still dominate the world gadget manufacturing but will use mainly Chinese tech in the future, this will cause huge losses to chip manufacturing outside China.
@@PascalCoppens Thx. I normally set speed at 2x, so subtitle helps. Thank you also for Sharing this Overview on Chips Issue, covering different perspectives.
Pascal, the combined forces of decoupling of US from China, Covid-19 and lean manufacturing overwhelmed the world's supply chain. The supply of microchips will be here to stay until China figures out how to manufacture their litography machines.
Even litho machines are picking up in China now. And Japan is supplying too. Lets not forget that only ASML can deliver the machines. Not US, not Taiwan, not South Korea,... and not yet China. China is not the only one behind on litho. Everyone but the Dutch and partially Japan is behind.
@@PascalCoppens It looks like only China has the capability for scale production of microchips. IoT certainly does not need the smallest or latest chip, and this is where SMIC stands to gain most.
the biggest challenge for China in regards to creating its own chip eco system is the fabrication devices. currently, China is incapable of manufacturing high end DUVs. currently, the only DUV that's 100% domestically produced by China can only manufacture 90NM chips. However, with the DUVs from ASML (imported before the trade war), China can manufacture 28NM chips. In addition, China has not even started on developing EUVs (the next gen fab device), and ASML is the only company on the planet that makes it, with US license btw. With 90NM and 28NM chips, China could dominate the low end markets. Usually, home appliances such as fridges, washing machines, dryers, vacuum cleaners and etc. all use 90NM chips. However, for smart TVs, you might need 28NM or below. all in all, China still has a long way to go when it comes to chip manufacturing. Btw, 100% of the DUVs at TMSC and Samsung were made in the Netherland, the Taiwanese and Koreans are also incapable of producing fab devices themselves. and ASML in Netherland can't make DUVs without American licensing. imo, China may achieve some level of chip independence in 2040 to 2050. making chips is an extremely challenging process, and the west is not going to let the Chinese catch up easily. right now, semiconductors and airplane engines are the final tech products which the west still holds a dominant position over China.
SMEE has produced china's first 28nm lithography machines, and only it's mass production remains. Once that happens, china can even produce 10nm chips as well, given that tsmc was able to produce less than 14nm chips even with DUV lithography machine
It is astonishing how many issues this guy got wrong. He clearly does not know the industry and cannot get basic information stright. It will be a thousand word essey to point his mistakes. Chips are all air shipped, ship logistic is never and issue. China is only a small part of production even at larger than 28nm nodes. US restriction on SMIC equipment buy does no noy affect the >28nm either.........
You are right on shipping. I should have said assembled electronics and time sensitive chips. Air cargo was also disrupted the past 2 years. Chips sales from China is up, and not insignificant anymore. www.semiconductors.org/chinas-share-of-global-chip-sales-now-surpasses-taiwan-closing-in-on-europe-and-japan/. As for 28nm and above, SMIC indeed can produce that without US restrictions. I don't believe I claimed otherwise.
Bottom up approach supporting an ecosystem all in close proximity to reduce cost. Yet another contradiction, centralized decentralization planned by authoritarian democracy to dominate low margin chips in a bid for long term dominance. This is next level governance.
There multi-dimensions for China tech companies to still stay above 28nm technology such as RISC vs CISC chips. With RISC chips u dont really need to go into 7nm or 5nm as density packing of transistors isnt the real goal rather its operating frequency that is more important. Ofcourse there are other solutions for China tech companies to develop their own chipsets to bypass potential US sanctions and I am sure Chinese engineers and technologist can navigate and creatively derive a solution.
The only problem is that you didn't point out who is the main culprit for all the problems..... America that is not able to take off its pants and admit that there is another system that is better and more effective for the world than its anarchist world view.... They were alive so we saw that the USA did not declare a holy war in order to preserve its leading role in the future..... Europe has made a mistake several times and is tying itself to America under the guise that America is protecting it and NATO, but it has suffered greatly economically and the future will also suffer if it does not more brains....Actually USA is the cause of all the problems on earth only for its own benefit....
It will take China at least 30 years before China could dominate this field in the world stage, it is not that easy, but China could do it, just need a little more time.
Where China dominates an industrial sector, there is always an eco system at work. China has perfected the art of building industrial eco systems. I would bet on the success of this new semiconductor eco system
Encouraging news about the new emerging chip eco-system platform in China - with active government planning and support, China will become the world’s one and only leading chip manufacturer in the foreseeable future. Good luck China 👍👍👍
And biggest market
@@Walawala459 CCP killed innovation that is why Taiwan is way more capable than China in this field.
@@老外-s7f you are so dead wrong. If what you said has any truth to that, how can you explain china advancements like quantum communication? China is the first country to launch a working quantum communication satellite in 2016?
@@老外-s7f PROOF TROLL???
@@yunko9369 You are 100% wrong CCP made China a factory for Cheap goods.. for example here in the middle east all high quality Cars/Phones/Computers/airplanes/ medications are not Chinese. Get out of your cave and face reality 🤣
If you think the US and the West should deal with their Covid mess instead of bashing and stopping China, raise your hand ✋🙋🏻♂️👍
✋
Saya sokong Mansana
China is not the problem.. CCP with its western stupid ideology is killing China
@@老外-s7f Previously China was once a dirt-poor, war-torn, starving country in the past. Over 70 years ago, literally *nobody thought "communist" China would ever succeed* or play an important role in global politics, yet fast forward till today and look at how far China has come under communist party leadership. China has since transformed into the world's 2nd largest economy, the world's factory (Made-in-China), having the world's 2nd largest R&D spending, protected by the world's largest land army, the People's Liberation Army, funded by the world's 2nd largest military spending.
And it's all been achieved under communist party leadership, despite Western anti-China propaganda constantly denouncing China's success all along.
@@Shenzhou. You are faking China's history 😂 China is a great nation before CCP. CCP kept China poor till Deng Xiaoping gave up on Communism and let China become partially capitalist 🤣
That was an exceptionally good presentation. China is creating an ecosystem to dominate a lot of chip production and it will make the world even more dependent on China as the center of the world's manufacturing.
Very likely it will if they succeed to build the ecosystem the market needs.
meanwhile, Intel has spent $90 billion dollars not to expand production facilities but rather on stock buybacks
wow, what a winning strategy! mainstream media told me so!
China as biggest market naturally will dominate chip supplies.
I think china boost it's chip industry to counter USA sanctions, it is their topmost priority
Dependent on china, what does that mean? Read some history so you know when there was a time where most nations make their own shit........result most got hardly any shit.
We trust China! Long live China 🇨🇳 👍.
Independency is just an idea. These chips are made to go inside manufactured products and where are these products made mostly? China. Unless the West is going to compete in making these products too, where are their chips going to end up?
Please don't make the same mistake as the US who think they are indispensable. Nobody is. Struggle must be constant.
@@rickoffee No, the Chinese have lived in isolation for many periods of its history. Of course not ideal but it won’t be fatal. It won’t be China’s choice, it’s the US that likes to cause trouble.
Hat off to you Sir, gain so much knowledge just to listen to you .Thumbs up to you.
Thanks
Beautiful video Pascal uncle. Keep it up always 🙂
Will do
Some scientists believe we are approaching the physical limitations of just how small we can manufacture chips. As chips get smaller and smaller each year, beyond a certain size, transistors start to lose their function, because of the quantum tunneling effect allowing electrons to leap through the gate. At 1 nanometer, we reach the smallest size a silicon-chip can go, since the source and the drain of a transistor is just 2 silicon atoms across! At that point, TMSC (if it's still around by) may become obsolete if chips cannot shrink any further, so another promising solution to circumvent this problem is to switch to carbon-based chips.
Thx for the comment
Yeah, right! I have heard such "doomsday" projections before as well. I remember a time when the CCP fanboys were gung-ho about the super-duper made in PRC "Godson" Intel x86 clone flooding into the market and resulting in a "massive" loss of business for Intel! 😅😂🤣
@@jarjarbinks3193 🤣
Despite the chip shortage, Chinese EVs dont seem to be affected. I think European EVs are more badly hit. Besides, for cars 14nm chips is adequate. As for mobile phones, China brands are still coming out with new designs and innovation early this year. Over in South East Asia, Chinese Mobile Phone Brand Dealers are being told that supplies for new models will arrive in April. My guess is new innovation in Mobile Phones not necessarily needs the 3 or 5nm chips. A 7nm chip would be adequate. Further, i think China will be self sufficient in Chips by mid of next year and if the rumour about photonic & graphene chips development are true, then ASML may not be relevant. Huawei is also slowly moving away from mobile phones production, not to say it will abandon it. Another thing, TSMC or Samsung or Intel and the other chip makers, their big capacity would mean nothing if the Brands of End Products do not have the sales volume. At the present moment, Chinese Brands are monopolizing. Thus, the US sanctions will only blow up in its face. China also has very good network of supply chain while the US do not, not to mention US is already behind in technology by 5 years. Most of the brains in almost every industry is in China now, not forgetting the 5G tech. US does not have 5G and is fooling its public. Someone tested the speed in US recently in several location and the network is transmitting at 4G on steroids although indicated as 5G on phone. Huawei is already experimenting on 6G.
I rather have a iPhone with an A15 chip than what you put in the low end phones. Can't compete with the best and even high end Chinese consumers won't buy the slower cheaper Chinese phone.
Have you seen what is the global mobile ranking of Huawei recently? I do not see them in top 10 these days. Plus development of GPU and ARM chips.. processing coupled with power usage efficiency seems to also be as critical as the download speed with 5G network.. anything out of China? Perhaps China can be more collaborative and reintegrated back to the global technology road map.. will be good for everyone..
@@KuahChoonHian Depand on which source you refer to. Huawei always is in either no3 or 4.
Your discussion is so well -researched and "spot-on." This pulled together all my thoughts about the genesis of this "semiconductor shortage." I agree with you that much of this may be attributed to the pandemic; however, "Our National Moron's" efforts to put "China Incorporated" out of business laid the ground work for this disaster. This fiasco has only galvanized China to create and develop their own semiconductor industry to become more self sufficient. I realize they are behind with respect to the West but I am sure they will remedy this problem with more STEM graduates coming out of their universities than any other country. It troubles me that TSMC and ASML (among others) have become America's lap dog and may regret this when China should overcome whatever roadblocks the West have imposed. China as you know has a very long memory! Last time I visited Shenzhen in 85' population ~300K . Today's population ~13 million (+40X growth). This exemplifies China's phenomenal growth and progress! Thank-you for your clear concise analysis Pascal!
My pleasure. I feel ASML at least would have no problem to deliver to China, but they too are dependent on US components, and so they have to play along whether they want or not. For TSMC there are similarities too.
@@PascalCoppens Your 'own' Begian IMEC which you do not give props it deserves (#13:49) also has withdrawn any substantive research capabilities from China has an industry fronteir 'roadmap' which i do not see how China can 'leapfrog'. China has been trying to develop tool ecosystems 'Made in China' initiative for half a dozen years and does not show success on their own roadmap. This is far different from providing Steve Jobs with IPhone manufacturing facilities in about 1 1/2 years; that is China's strength. i understand your love of the concept of a state-sponsored decentralized ecosystem but i do not see the innovation you propose it will develop ---- somewhat magical thinking it seems. On what analysis / data does this future projection rest?
@@kevinkanter2537 agree with you Kevin. These bozos are speaking completely out of their league and they have no clue about how semi industry works. China is trying by stealing and copying, not by innovating. The West is successful because of innovation, not because of copying and trying to “replace them” and calling it a victory which is ALL China is doing in EVERY industry. As long as the West protects whatever it innovated and continues to innovate, China has zero chance of success. China has zero chance in the next 20 yrs to catch up TSMC let alone ASML, so they maybe thinking something evil like starting a war to change their odds
@Kai H wow...long time this was out there...
...but glad you had fun...me too 👍
Besides going after high end silicon based chips measured in nanometers, the industry is also diversifying into other type of materials. For example silicon carbide and gallium nitride that are needed for the cars, 5G and other high growth applications.
In addition, there are also application specific chips, eg, for AI and also things like photonic chips that the west don’t yet have a monopoly on the technology yet.
China is doubling up its efforts in these new sectors and potentially be able to leapfrog the west so that they can not be blackmailed anymore in the future.
True
Production processes too.
Shanghai Electric-owned SMEE (Shanghai Micro-Electronic Equipment) and even privately owned Advantools, based in Tianjin and machine tool maker Han's Laser Group already have lithography machines as part of their product line-up
Agreed. It may take years but I am sure with a determined and smart workforce with a strong government behind, it will come true sooner than you thought.
From what I have heard SMEE has already made 28nm lithography machines and the only thing left is to mass produces them
Also they would be able to make 7nm chips even with DUV as TSMC was able to make 7nm chips even with DUV machines
I have also heard that China is on the verge of making EUV lithography machines as well
Thanks again for your videos. I live in the US., But I'm sick of their politics. They don't have a plan..It gets changed every time their is a new president while the people pay for all the wasted efforts, unless it's to upgrade their war machine. I like China more and more the more I learn about the country. 5yr plans are needed so much here also.
Agreed we need to keep an open mind.
"their"
@@Paccekabuddha Their ..Democrats or Republicans or the system as a whole.
@@rainerluthershelley5131 "their" should read "there" in your original post.
@@bobsmith3983 THEIR is correct Bob. There is not over here.
Thanks Pascal, the Western media are so biased, you are a breath of fresh air.
Thanks
This channel belongs to CCP 🤣 100% biased
Pascals facts are the same as Western Media. It's his analysis and opinion that is mostly different.
@@老外-s7f Instead of just saying this channel belong to CCP, why not list what he presented as not the fact and is biased in favor of China? Without facts to support what you said, this will only make you a liar and a troll.
@@yunko9369 He works for CGTN/CCP that is why he is biased. Tiny Taiwan is better than giant CCP's China because CCP killed innovation.. do not cry ! !😀 maybe 50 years later CCP will catch up with Taiwan's chips 😂
Thank you for another great researched video. I love your detailed analysis and learnt so much on any topic you presented. Great job
Glad it was helpful!
Your analysis is so spot on. Thank you very much for your presentation.
Pleasure
great in-depth analysis and presentation. Keep it up Pascal.
Thanks Julian
Thank you Pascal 👍🏼
Pleasure
Good explanation Pascal! TQ.
Thanks
China is a good problem solver and observer of the trend. Once a problem is defined, China could lazer focus on it and get it solved.
Oh yeah ? Well that didn't work for COVID.
@@TheNefastor They didn't have over a million deaths as in the USA so it did work for China. The USA's COVID response was pathetic.
@@bobsmith3983 and yet China is still having city-wide lockdowns. Whereas every other country in the world is pretty much back to normal. The US response was pathetic but that doesn't mean it was the only country to mishandle COVID. Keep seeing only what you want to see, you'll never go far.
We live in a world of IOT (Internet of Things) where your smartphone can literally talk to your washing machine, so there's bound to be a shortage of chips. Chips have become so integral to our society, that it's too dangerous to leave the manufacture of chips to just a few top players.
Agreed
@@PascalCoppens RUSSIAN BODIES ARE PILING UP 🤣
@@takethatwumao1999 吃药了吗？Have you taken medicine? It is estimated that you need to increase the amount to cure your brain damage
@@SamLoveSharing HUAWEI IS A CRIMINAL ORGANIZATION
As always. Excellent analysis and presentation. Thank you.
Thanks
Interesting. Informative.
Thanks
Europe doesn't have much microchip manufacturing and the U.S. has outsourced most of their microchip manufacturing to Asia. And I heard that China has spent huge amounts of money and resources on semiconductor R&D for over a decade, so they are probably way ahead of the curve today.
Well they are not. SMIC has been stuck at 28 nm forever and there's zero indication it'll ever do better than that. But hey, it's still better than Russia, stuck at 90 nm...
@Nicolau Poceiro Ideally these competitions drive everyone to get better, for the benefits of all mankind. Better than arms race, or cold war politics to exaggerate differences pushing people to war.
@@TheNefastor You are behind the times as at least one Chinese fab is manufacturing 7nM chips that are being used e.g. in Bitcoin mining machines.
China is one country and it has good planning and execution supported by a skillful set of qualified engineers in the hundreds of thousands. Even the universities and research labs are playing their part. For other country to built such eco system, it's just not so easy. Every piece of the supply chains numbering hundreds of components have to be assigned, agreed and allocated. Disputes and financial resources with capacity and capabilities have to be discussed and sorted out. Every sovereign nations will have their own interest and agenda. I just don't think it will be that easy in a country where govts changed very often. US and India are two fine examples, in which discussions, lobbying, negotiations took more than a decade. In a fast changing tech world, the rollout of digital products wait for no one. Thanks again for your well thought presentation, Pascal.
Thanks!
Ah yes, everything is so easy to "mighty" China... which is why it can't make a chip more advanced than 28 nm. Meanwhile those "inferior" foreign nations have somehow managed to make 5 nm chip factories and better. Makes sense.
@@TheNefastor You are behind the times as at least one Chinese fab is manufacturing 7nM chips.
@@bobsmith3983 kid, this is my industry. China made a prototype chip using 16 multiple exposures at 28 nm to reach 7 nm. Meaning it's well over 16 times more expensive than true 7 nm. Meaning it's worthless if you're trying to compete with the rest of the world. It's a propaganda trick and you, not being an electrical engineer, gobbled it up. Hook, line and sinker.
China steals every IP in the world. If it could produce 7 nm chips, nVidia, Intel and AMD would all have gone bankrupt.
Bit of advice : if you only see what you want to see, you will lose.
Thanks for so much infrmation!!
👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽🙌🙌🙌🙌🙌
Pleasure
@@PascalCoppens you are the best!!!
Love your unbiased lens. Thank you
I still believe in globalization. If we produce everything by ourselves, it won't be efficient. In the end, our products won't be competitive, because of high cost.
Agreed, but when there is 1/5 of the world population it is kind of like global. So can India.
No way! China should be self sufficient and self contained. They should never rely on any other country for a product. Primarily due to sanctions against them.
@@thetreekeeper143 Yes, in case of chips, China have to self sufficient because of restriction from US. But, China don't have to produce everything. For example: Srilanka produce one the best tea in the world. Indonesia produce palm oil for industry. Thailand produce best silk. etc. China can not produce and export everything to the world, but buy nothing. Trade is buy and sell, win-win solutions. Globalization = Efficiency.
@@thetreekeeper143 Another example is face mask. In the beginning of the pandemic, politician in US complain. Why we don't produce ourselves, such vital health care. So, they start to produce face mask. But, the result is expensive products. No body want to buy it. And the factory also can't give it for free. Even the government, finally buy KN-95 from China.
@@joestki It not just about population size but consumer wealth. That still makes EU and America a large market.
where have you been??? glad to see you back
thanks for the info, i love the way you explain things, every sentence makes sense, you're a great teacher.
Pascal, this is a well researched piece but let me offer an alternative view since I have spent some years in the chip and electronic industry.
When China propose a new chip ecosystem, it is not about a chip sourcing environment. That low skill environment already exist. Since it already exist, I believe it is about the chip design and manufacturing ecosystem. Here we are talking about design standards and open discussion groups. Design software and component and module definitions that enables collaboration, this is at the moment dominated by the US which drives the definition. Customisation services like PLC, ASIC, PLA, Microcontrollers. Processing chemicals and material development and production. Manufacturing automation, workflow and CAD/CAM standards, process equipment development like lithography and basic science supporting it. Development of stock materials like wafers. There is also the packaging and testing.
Pascal really can bring it all together for easy understanding. Thank you.
Thanks
Thanks for covering the topic! it is an awesome video👍
Thanks Pascal, for a most informative video. China is as trustworthy as any other producer, if not moreso. As for the China Russia statement post invasion of Ukraine, this is from the boss - 'The Chinese side supports the Russian side in solving the issue through negotiation with the Ukrainian side, Xi said, adding that China has been consistent in its basic position on respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries and abiding by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter'. China can be trusted to follow its own pathway no matter what; this is what a single centralist, principled and disciplined form of governance that has the overwhelming support of its 1.4 billion population can and is doing.
I read that statement too. Thanks.
China ? Trustworthy ? 🤣
@@TheNefastor maybe not for those still suffering from an antique yellow peril syndrome, something that obviously still plagues the mind of many..
@@robertseaborne5758 how about for people who have outsourced to China and it turned out to be cheap but crappy... and then their products got copied ? How about people like me, who used to order from AliExpress and stopped because half the sellers are crooks ?
@@TheNefastor obviously not a good experience for you, unfortunately this is common throughout the industrial world, not confined to China. Most such outsourcing to China must be viable, otherwise how do we explain the relatively rapid and massive development of its productive force and middle class over recent decades?
How can you go against the people who has the number, more resilient, more determined, more hardworking and smarter than you? Now they're richer too. The outcome is obvious.
i had never seen such a informative video and positive future predict pass few years .........thank you so much !!
Thank you 🙏
I recently red yahoo article and I think, you're speaking the truth
Thanks
Now with the Ukraine situation, there might be again chip shortages coming up as to make these chips you need neon gas
Did not think about that
WOW !!! thank you for your video , so i'm hong kong people , this really good from your advise in this video
Lithography and other chip equipment are the cornerstone to chip manufacturing… such technologies come from an array of international corporations.. intellectual property protection is key to incentivise such corporations to continue to be innovative and progressive.. the world has moved towards collaboration and mutual benefits while upmanship is likely to lead to isolation and stagnation…
I’m afraid that there’s a lot of gaps to fill and catch up with for China to manufacture advanced chips. I still remember that China was only able to manufacture ball point pens on its own 4-5 years ago, after many many years of catch up (the most important breakthrough being ability to churn out steel with high purity). Manufacturing the most advanced chips is much harder and I think it’ll take more time.
I made a video about that alomst a year ago now.
@@PascalCoppens Would you do a interview on my channel
Ball point pen is not a key technology that China would want to waste so much money and time in it. So for you to use this example as a gauge of chinese capability is totally wrong. Your comment shows that you have been brainwash by western media to really underestimate the intelligence of your own kind.
Now China just not have to manufacture chips but they have to manufacture high end lithography machine same as asml euv, software tools like candance , various chemical . All these are dominated by USA, EU and Japan
@@overlordborn6131 The examples you gave is exactly why I said it’ll take time.
At 14:12 Pascal: _"Everybody's _*_chipping_*_ in..."_
Me: _"I see what you did there."_
Pun intended indeed. 😂
Thank you very much, finally understand the cause of this chips supply disaster.
Necessity is the mother of invention. The US will never learn that sanctions are counter productive.
No the chips were used for making entertainment games, computers, portable devices because people are staying at home and they want to use these electronic gadgets to entertain them while being in lockdown a home. Hence fewer chips for cars etc.
Keep up china on economy of scale.
China builds the chip factory for tomorrow. The chip shortage is not about capacity, but collaboration.
And then the whole Russian sanctions issue came and suddenly industry is left without crucial materials to manufacture these chips from.
9:40 It's not just that there are so _many_ chips in a modern car, it's also that they're not high profit jobs for the foundry(s), so bigger $$ jobs take priority.
China needs also to look into alternatives to silicon based chips.
They are.
Graphene & carbon chips are on their radar, but it's a few commercial years away.
@@magellanmax Also photonic chips. Chinese companies are now researching photonic n carbon chips . Both these chips don't require EUV machines.
China is so great!
!
Well explained. Thanks, Pascal.
My pleasure!
Good smart strategies
Thank you for this really insightful presentation! Really interesting! Subscribed!
Not in a short period but they will catch up on the chip industry and they know they must make it happen.
The Chinese allocated about $1.48 trillion dollars for the development of their domestic semi-conductor, AI & IoT development. With that kind of resources, it's a matter of when, not if.
Fantastic presentation.
The overwhelming majority of chips in critically short supply don't need top end production techniques. Take for example mid-range and low-end microcontrollers which are some of the most challenging to get supplies for at the moment.
Something that bothers me about all the money pumping in to new fabs is that is is ultimately start up capital. There are numerous examples of fabs closing down because they are not financially competitive even just after they were built. What happens when these new fabs flood the market with chips causing a crash in prices. Who an operate at the lowest cost? My money is on the Chinese and Taiwanese. It makes me think of the possible cost efficiency of the Chinese semi-conductor project discussed in the video.
Thanks. Great feedback
China has learned how to make them out of Graphite too, so goodbye Silicon Valley, Hello Carbon Reduction :)
And I truly think USA should start manufacturing its own chips in American Territory.
I am eager to see whether China can break through the current manufacturing barrier that is to produce under 14nm fab machine . Any chance they able to reduce chip size in the next 2 or 3 years ?. BTW, there hasnt any news about carbon/graphene chip break through. Hope they able to make mobile size for this line of chip soon as it has so much potential to be better than silicon chip.
Chinese foundries are at the 7nM node and are delivering chip based on that.
It'll be interesting if China can apply what was unique and creative about Szenchen to semiconductor fabs. Don't know how that would workk but if someone thinks there's an opportunity there, it would be worth watching. And, as long as China doesn't infringe on patents, then I'm sure industries would at least take a look at what is produced. Part of the problem also though is that Chinese semiconductors even within a particular nm or mm class have not performed as well as those produced in Western and Japanese and South Korean fabs. So for instance, you won't see anyone buying PC memory made in China to put in even common home and small business machines unless they just don't care about performance. At any price, Chinese memory chips just isn't worthwhile. China will need to step up in more ways than the obvious if it's going to do more than dredge the bottom of the marketplace.
China has no choice but to build its own chips!✊ 加油💪
China has remained neutral like India and other countries about the war. Why can't a country remain neutral?
Do you really think the US's hands are clean?
The nato countries is still a large market for China. But China is slowly opening up new markets in Africa, South American countries, South Asia, n west Asian countries. These markets are relative smaller but will grow to overtake the west in the coming decades. China will wait. The west will decline because of their hegemonic n race superiority attitudes.
Could you make another video about the last export rules by the US administration in October and what they mean for China chip industry for the long run
(even though it's very related to the 2 videos you've already made on China chip industry, I know)
The problem with smaller chip foundries is that they are notoriously unprofitable.
Also, since america forced tsmc to set up a chip foundry in usa, i am of the opinion that they will forced a scaled down operation of tsmc taiwan operations.
Yes, they are unprofitable and essential to semiconductor supply chain security.
EU has very limited need for advanced semiconductors. Intel, AMD, nVidia, Apple, Huawei, Qualcomm... All companies that need advanced chips are outside EU. We do need older chips (most evident need is in cars), but the grandiose announcements from the European commission completely ignore that. I guess it doesn't sound as sexy as "leading edge fab"....
I sure hope older node chips from China won't be today's nat. gas from Russia.
@@VoicesInDark looking at the trend now ..it will be... Have you forgotten what they said about the silicon crystals sources from Xinjiang?
Chinese have become leader in most industries that the rest of the (often Western) world considers unprofitable. I see no difference in chip market. Just new paradigm for the world.
@@PascalCoppens Advance chips were easily available from America and Taiwan so China did not focus on chips manufacturing seriously.
After USA sanction china took it seriously and doubled its efforts. China is silently developing eco system of advance chips. I am sure China will soon reveal its most advance chips without foreign technologies .
@@PascalCoppens i did not consider that that way....hmm, you are, again, absolutely correct. good to be learning new stuffs from your videos.
Not to forget that the chip industry depends on rare earth, and who is the dominant supplier of rare earth, CHINA?? This means that the US has to invest also billions of dollars in rare earth production, and the needed environment protection to fight the pollution. Another side effect is, when every one start to make their own chips, that the market will be flooded with chips in the future, which will have impact on the price and consequently the profitability.
China is more efficient however to grow businesses with low margins and high volume.
Great vid. Bedankt.
Met plezier
Not just silicon based chips but also carbon based chips and photonic chips. Also the lithography equipment.
By the end of this year China would likely have achieved self sufficiency and even the manufacturing hub for all kinds of chips - silicon based chips, carbon based chips and even photonic chips, both high end and low end chips would be dominated by China and so too lithography equipment and other chips making equipment.
Once the pandemic backlog is cleared, there's going to be an oversupply in the market with all the expansion going on. But I'm sure taxpayers will in the long run be stuck with the bill if their government footed the expansion bill.
Good video but could be shorter. Lotsa repetition. So basically China is focusing on manufacturing low end less profitable chips used in IOT while designing their own high end high margin chips. I assume the latter will still be made outside China for now?
Thanks for suggesting time. I already reduced many of my videos from 30+ minutes to 20+...;-) The high-end chips will still be manufactured outside China, but for how long is unclear. My estimate is 2030 before China has mostly caught up and at same time alternative high-end designs/production available that are not based on Silicon.
@@PascalCoppens Where do you get the timeline of 8 years to transition to "not based on Silicon" chips - what are you talking about? seriously i love your enthusiasm about a cluster of chip mfg capability i.e. "an ecosystem" but do you also know that that is how all the fabs in the us are organized? Some of the most advanced software for ai-integrated chip / mask design are in the US (and some EU companies)? setting a 'standard' or design (which i guess is what you are referring to) spec is far from implementing that spec. China still can't make tools for chip mfg except some of the most basic deposition ones. I do not see your information on generations of design (even copying) leapfrogging current technology in 8 years; how do you make your future projections?
China must build own technology engineering fields like chip component , why if count on western or USA or Japan supply to China , it can any think happened by sanction stopped supplying chips components to China and also benefits on earth pollution climate , so western go back doing industrial for own country.
There are a couple mistakes in your analysis:
- SMIC has a very low market share, also in low-end and most of these chips are consumed domestically. This does not contribute much to the global shortage
- Europe does not focus on the very high end with their chips act.
Thank you for the video that you made. What are your thoughts on the services of Fulfillman cj and also aliexpress?
In the USA, their government and companies all operate with a selfish mentality of me, myself and I.
When what was in place was enough, all these new the self sufficiency capacities only mean a glut. In an industry driven by economies of scale like no other where prices fall continuously from launch, the overcapacity can only result in everyone operating quite far below the par line. The cost that we were used to will be a thing of the past until all these capacities fall away, which i believe is inevitable. I cannot envision the huge premiums expect of consumer products holding its place.
Car manufacturers have to smarten up and build cars with reduced number of chips.
Over-engineering is a design sin.
Hard to revert back
China is setting a new paradigm, Chinese are pouring in billions into photonic chips & into graphene manufacturing, which a China is leading. They have also built a mega size litographic machine for domestic consumption at the moment.
Amazing 👏🏻 Video please make more 😍❤
I will. Stay tuned
When politicians running a country have no idea how international industry and business are interdependent.
USA must work together with China for mutual benefit, confrontation will only damage both.
Where are these factorys in china
There are now huge investment in the chip industry in China and the west, this is far more capacity than the world needs. China makes 70-80% of the gadget the world uses today and China will give priority to sourcing from China in a splintered global supply chain, new manufacturing centers will appear in other countries but they will likely supply western economies only because of cost competitiveness. China will still dominate the world gadget manufacturing but will use mainly Chinese tech in the future, this will cause huge losses to chip manufacturing outside China.
Will there be a YiWu of semiconductor? Having spent my whole working life in semiconductor If it comes about I want to go see it.
Yiwu of semicon. Like that.
Tell me which high tech company was due to the government initiative ？
In 5yrs there will be such a surplus of chips, they will become worthless. History might not repeat, but it always rhymes.
Would be good if Subtitles (English ... etc) are Available, Thank you
Will do them. Sorry
@@PascalCoppens Thx. I normally set speed at 2x, so subtitle helps. Thank you also for Sharing this Overview on Chips Issue, covering different perspectives.
Pascal, the combined forces of decoupling of US from China, Covid-19 and lean manufacturing overwhelmed the world's supply chain. The supply of microchips will be here to stay until China figures out how to manufacture their litography machines.
Even litho machines are picking up in China now. And Japan is supplying too. Lets not forget that only ASML can deliver the machines. Not US, not Taiwan, not South Korea,... and not yet China. China is not the only one behind on litho. Everyone but the Dutch and partially Japan is behind.
@@PascalCoppens It looks like only China has the capability for scale production of microchips. IoT certainly does not need the smallest or latest chip, and this is where SMIC stands to gain most.
the biggest challenge for China in regards to creating its own chip eco system is the fabrication devices. currently, China is incapable of manufacturing high end DUVs. currently, the only DUV that's 100% domestically produced by China can only manufacture 90NM chips. However, with the DUVs from ASML (imported before the trade war), China can manufacture 28NM chips. In addition, China has not even started on developing EUVs (the next gen fab device), and ASML is the only company on the planet that makes it, with US license btw.
With 90NM and 28NM chips, China could dominate the low end markets. Usually, home appliances such as fridges, washing machines, dryers, vacuum cleaners and etc. all use 90NM chips. However, for smart TVs, you might need 28NM or below. all in all, China still has a long way to go when it comes to chip manufacturing. Btw, 100% of the DUVs at TMSC and Samsung were made in the Netherland, the Taiwanese and Koreans are also incapable of producing fab devices themselves. and ASML in Netherland can't make DUVs without American licensing.
imo, China may achieve some level of chip independence in 2040 to 2050. making chips is an extremely challenging process, and the west is not going to let the Chinese catch up easily. right now, semiconductors and airplane engines are the final tech products which the west still holds a dominant position over China.
SMEE has produced china's first 28nm lithography machines, and only it's mass production remains.
Once that happens, china can even produce 10nm chips as well, given that tsmc was able to produce less than 14nm chips even with DUV lithography machine
WE ARE BUILDING BETTER CHIP FACTORIES
It is astonishing how many issues this guy got wrong. He clearly does not know the industry and cannot get basic information stright. It will be a thousand word essey to point his mistakes. Chips are all air shipped, ship logistic is never and issue. China is only a small part of production even at larger than 28nm nodes. US restriction on SMIC equipment buy does no noy affect the >28nm either.........
You are right on shipping. I should have said assembled electronics and time sensitive chips. Air cargo was also disrupted the past 2 years.
Chips sales from China is up, and not insignificant anymore.
www.semiconductors.org/chinas-share-of-global-chip-sales-now-surpasses-taiwan-closing-in-on-europe-and-japan/.
As for 28nm and above, SMIC indeed can produce that without US restrictions. I don't believe I claimed otherwise.
China and Russia are my favorite countries
Nice video again!Great idea!😁😁😁
Just one question, why there is no subtitles, I need them sometimes, sorry
Will do them soon. Sorry for inconvenience
You can click the subtitles CC in Ipad or go to setting-caption in mobile phone
@@hermansentot1975 ok, but I'm using PC 😂😂😂
@@PascalCoppens Thank you!
@@tchong625 Not sure of PC, but it works on notebook as well. I believe such subtitles are created by AI
TESLA top R&D is in China.
This is what he is talking about, making things happen over night.
this video highlight the incredible pace
of China
th-cam.com/video/hTOtAniwC18/w-d-xo.html
I am curious. Russia is just doing in Ukrain what US is doing in taiwan province of China. Not realllllyyyyy fair. I am from SKorea
China again?Ok i will watch it to make you happy!
Bottom up approach supporting an ecosystem all in close proximity to reduce cost. Yet another contradiction, centralized decentralization planned by authoritarian democracy to dominate low margin chips in a bid for long term dominance. This is next level governance.
Explaining China's paradoxes is the hardest challenge. I called that in my new book "Can we trust China?" nurturing a "qubit mindset'.
There multi-dimensions for China tech companies to still stay above 28nm technology such as RISC vs CISC chips. With RISC chips u dont really need to go into 7nm or 5nm as density packing of transistors isnt the real goal rather its operating frequency that is more important. Ofcourse there are other solutions for China tech companies to develop their own chipsets to bypass potential US sanctions and I am sure Chinese engineers and technologist can navigate and creatively derive a solution.
The only problem is that you didn't point out who is the main culprit for all the problems..... America that is not able to take off its pants and admit that there is another system that is better and more effective for the world than its anarchist world view.... They were alive so we saw that the USA did not declare a holy war in order to preserve its leading role in the future..... Europe has made a mistake several times and is tying itself to America under the guise that America is protecting it and NATO, but it has suffered greatly economically and the future will also suffer if it does not more brains....Actually USA is the cause of all the problems on earth only for its own benefit....
I trust China
No, they are not for high-end chips. Basically, China builds chip factory for yesterday and plays catch-up.
It will take China at least 30 years before China could dominate this field in the world stage, it is not that easy, but China could do it, just need a little more time.