EXTRA INFO: A weighted majority is 60% of Members of the Legislative Assembly present and voting, including at least 40% of each of the nationalist and unionist designations present and voting.
I kind of feel it would be better for northern Ireland to join Ireland ... economics . Resources . And stability in the region Isn't Ireland unity better for northern Ireland ? I am not European and only state my opinion Feels more logical 😐
On an unrelated note, do you have any hoodies that say something like "I'm with My Right Honourable Friend -->" like the classic I'm with Stupid shirts, cause I think it would sell like hot cakes :-)
@@mannamanam8233 The issue is the "stability in the region" part. If a large majority of Unionist party supporters supported it, then it might be able to happen with some measure of stability (though even then a presumed small minority adamantly opposed could cause quite a bit of instability) ... but if they supported unification with Ireland, they wouldn't be Unionist party supporters, would they? So pragmatically that is unification against the wishes of a large share of Unionist party supporters, and that seems like it would cause massive instability in the region. And that doesn't seem like it would be better than the current state of affairs. Indeed, it seems like the GFA wouldn't have been necessary if it had been possible to have either unification or a hard border with the Republic without "instability".
Remember, when MP's went onto the barricades, because they feared, Northern Ireland could split away from the UK due to such a Deal, including Johnson? These same guys are still there! Season 6 of Brexit incoming!
Yeah imagine if this deal happens and NI gets split off from the UK customs zone while being united with Ireland... going for an Irish reunification would have never been more obvious.
@@T33K3SS3LCH3N This deal is gonna lay exactly that in place. Under BoJo's deal they have to vote to remain in the customs union - he's just passing the buck for when that vote ultimately fails.
@@ParticularCoconut Nothing specific, it's just that in one of their previous videos they had to disclaim that political conditions had already changed as they were making it. Kudos to TLDR New for keeping up on this crazy hamster wheel!
@@mightywurlitzer I'm calling it now, this deal gets shafted in parliament and an extension will be negotiated. I'd be surprised to see this process end by the end of 2030
@PlebzOr Blapparapp Sadly as a diagnosed insomniac, I really don't have much choice in the matter :-) Plus I am honestly and truly on pins and needles wondering what is going to happen over there in the next 24 hours. I think it's probably because wondering what is going to happen over *here* in the next 24 hours always scares the bejeezus out of me.
The transition deal is actually very detailed about EU-UK relationship and in theory it could become a permanent deal keeping most of the details in place if both parties agree. Maybe the hardest meditation negotiations are over.
@@ChilapaOfTheAmazons I don't think so. The text of the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration is vague in some parts. Once the negotiations start in ernest, it will need at least a decade and probably longer to thrash out the final details. Plus some particularly difficult areas are not even mentioned.
@@ilianceroni yes you are correct he has put spin on this like its best thing since slice bread, and it is not , its a few points changed, but the Leavers are hailing him a a hero, like the State opening of Parliament he wanted all the pomp and ceremony he was delighting in it, i wonder how many times a non elected PM with a Minority Govt has had all this , and what it cost the Tax payer . hes a glory hunter and that demonic Cumming wrote what makes it sound and look good. you can not polish a Turd.
@Dušan Xmetov you are correct. Before it was the potential for it to the eu to keep the uk tied in indefinitely.. now there is a mechanism for the people of NI to walk away. I'm not a massive fan of the deal. But saying it's not an improvement it's just plain wrong
No, this is very different. The Backstop tied the whole UK into the customs union for as long as the EU felt necessary. This deal essentially means two borders for four years subject to NI approval afterwards. NI will be tied in the customs union whilst the rest of the UK will diverge and be able to negotiate trade deals like FTA's and PTA's with 3rd countries as well as work on building a new trade relationship with the EU. During the transition though (until late 2020 or beyond) we will still remain in the EU single market. So no changes will come in overnight on free movement of goods, services, capital, and people. Other things like EU citizen's health cover will stop (if I have gathered all this correctly).
@Dušan Xmetov It actually looks more like a 'preclearance zone', just like the 'American terminals' in most major Canadian airports. Those places are technically under the jurisdiction of Canadian government, however the everyone entering (at least all the passengers) should go through the CBP and get approved for immigration, customs and regulation (mostly agricultural, where the US government takes SERIOUSLY), so that when they take a flight to the USA, they're treated as 'domestic travelers'.
@@ThoriberoCaroli The thing is that UK cant get what they want. If they want a deal they will have to take one that they refused already. Im seeing that EU leaders are fed up with this UK drama, and hopefuly veto the extention. Face it, its ridiculous for UK parlament to reject a deal and than yell at the government that they have no deal... surely adequate human being would not do such thing, unless they have some hidden motives or see it as a benefit. Well they managed to resign may, maybe that was theyr plan all along?
@@vytisagafonovas3887 Indeed. Much of the problem, I believe, is that the UK as an entity, does not know what it wants in the first place. There is no single ideological group or party, with their idea of brexit/remain, which have a majority in a system where a majority is required to pass legislation. And the same thing would be seen in a people's vote. In the latest one, half wanted to remain, but on what terms? And half wanted to leave, but on what terms? Boiled down to one issue, leave/remain, there might be a majority. But unfortunately, this is not a one issue problem. In the end there are only two ways out of this: 1. Find a compromise that reaches a majority, in parliament or a people’s vote, which will depend on all involved giving up key things. 2. Let the group with the largest minority get their idea through, in parliament or a people’s vote. Which though will lead to the majority of the country getting ruled by a minority. Not an easy way out in any case.
@@ThoriberoCaroli Remain on current terns. What terms are you imagining in a remain scenario? The UK government or Parliament unilaterally decides that the UK should remain and we move on. That's it. Too bad most MPs and the government are unwilling to organise a second referendum. Keep in mind that the first referendum wasn't constitutionally binding. A fact that hardline brexiteers conveniently ignore. As I have previously said: ”What about the amendment that has passed by accident that stipulates that the only deal that Parliament has the option to agree to is May's deal or no deal? Why would MP's agree to a weaker deal? If they're stubbornly rejecting a second referendum between the 2 deals, no deal or remain, why not choose May's deal and move on since doing nothing will mean crashing out without a deal anyway?”
He and Cummings had to find a subtle way to throw the DUP under the bus, since that was the only way a deal would become possible. Expecting an election, after which the DUP would be unlikely to hold the same pivotal status, they took out the knives so that they could say they achieved a deal, but couldn't be 100% obvious about doing over a supposed partner. I doubt that many are fooled, judging by comments I've seen, but appearances apparently matter.
@ "Oh no, I made a spelling mistake! This must mean I'm automaticly wrong!" Guess there was no argument to turn to, so you went for my knowledge of a language that's not even my primary language?
@ And I stated the fact that you provide no argument for your statement. Spelling is no issue on a global media as the internet; I dare you to spell anything in dutch right after typing comments in said language every day.. not to mention my spell checker reflects the language my computer was installed in; dutch. (so no help there on english) Perhaps it had not occurred to you that spelling is on low priority when one makes a joke online. Whenever my statement is wrong is up to you to grow a sense of humor; as it is a joke... A joke on something we all know is a likely possibility, but you took offense on, because god forbid if it was true.
@@elwinvanhuissteden7729 exactly how is Boris begging for the EU to help him push a deal through? They already negotiated and both sides agree,he doesn't need the EU to do anything,he needs MPs to vote for it and none of those MPs answer to the EU,they answer to the UK populace. At this point after all the crying about "we must have a deal!" They now have one,if they fail to vote for this deal then they are illustrating it was never about a deal and was always about stopping Brexit and with the sentiment of the British population being against MPs who wish to Remain you don't wanna see the outrage and backlash if the MPs once more refuse it.
@@elwinvanhuissteden7729 I think Dutch is one of the most beautiful languages in the world but not for computers("Gegevens aanpassen") or something like that just sounds bad. So i would be pleased if you would change your computer language to english.
Let’s step back from the situation and look at this - whether you want to leave or remain, you have to admit that the proximity to the deadline, with the hastiness with which this deal was put together, and the stunning lack of scrutiny it will have, is not the way to treat the “biggest decision of a generation”.
leftie McGobshite The 3 years clearly isn’t enough, since all of the deals except for this one have been rejected. Plus, Jack Perry is focusing on the fact that this deal, which was negotiated by Boris Johnson. He effectively had 2 months to make a deal when 3 years worth of negotiation failed.
leftie McGobshite Well that’s your opinion and that’s fair enough. I’d say leaving on this deal should be out of the question. But the country is split, what are you gonna do?
To be fair with Johnson, he didn't have to negotiate from Scratch, he basically just took May's Deal, told the EU "Everything with it is fine except the Backstop, let's talk about that" and they renegotiated solely over the Backstop to bring a more complicated solution.
This has been absolutely entertaining and exciting (for someone living abroad like me). Thank you TLDR for keeping us updated with quick and clear explanations.
@Britannia's Pride Depends how young he is. Depends if, like me, he was disabled and denied a postal or proxy vote at the last minute for no damned good reason, like thousands of others who have access issues.
@@davepratt9909 Since BJ promised a plane-crash, I'm absolutely convinced that he will most definitely try to crash it! One would be absolutely mad to try and stop him.
The single market is (for the most part) a benefit of the EU. People wanted out of the EU because of the laws, the immigration and the money being paid to support other nations. Just because the EU has benefits does not mean it is the correct decision to remain.
Yeah it has many flaws to it but its a weigh up of whether they're worth living with as appose to the flaws of a brexit, especially a poorly handled one
Sod the rest of UK! They hate the UK, so they're only willing to let NI retain any of the benefits of EU membership, whilst at the same time screwing things up for anyone who "exports" from the mainland UK to NI.
As far as one can make out, all objection that Johnson had about May as Prime Minister had nothing to do with ideology about Brexit, but with his own leadership ambitions. This is one reason why ordinary voters think politicians have no integrity.
It's an intricate balance. The games of politics requires you to sacrifice integrity for power. However, without power, one cannot push any agenda/ideology.
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Johnson' objection was not at May being PM, it was because she went behind everyone's back and set up a deal that was pretty well the worst possible. That was articulated quite clearly but it seems to have gone over your head.
@@frozensync That's often the case, but it does require a politician to have some integrity in the first place. It's clear that at least as far back as his time at Oxford, Johnson has no integrity. His political style is to lie like a snake to get the job done and say what his listeners want to hear.
The back stop going changes the situation significantly.The fact that May was adamant it couldn't be removed and Boris did just that demonstrates May was an utterly terrible leader. As we've now seen,his no deal bluster was enough to get the EU to reconsider. So what we have in fact seen was the Mays approach had been beyond extremely soft and lead to so much of the turmoil of the past 3+ years,all because she took no deal off the table. I'm no fan of Boris,i don't trust him but clearly he's done in a couple of months,with the threat of no deal on the table,what May couldn't in 3 years with it off. That tells you that taking No deal off was a catastrophic mistake and anyone who tied Boris' hands by trying to take it off the table harmed the likelihood of getting the deal they claimed they wanted so much.
Mays Plan was Rejected by the entire house 3 times. Would you say they all wanted her space? There's something about her deal that nobody liked. Johnson has changed the narrative. No longer will the whole of UK be subject to EU custom laws (May), just Nothern Ireland (Johnson)
@Daniel Smith They aren't really cowards they just want him to get an extension as he has no majority in parliament (which I why he wants a general election). Boris has no power atm
@Daniel Smith because who could trust the word about of HM Johnson about keeping election date before Brexit date when he betray DUP after all this time lol
So let me get this straight: Johnson's basically trying to passing May's chequers deal, the very unpopular deal that Parliament blocked multiple times? This is gonna be a fun dumpster fire to watch.
Do you feel alienated from the UK at the moment? North Ireland will practically be the same just with 66% "less EU" than UK has now. It's more or less heading to a united ireland anyway, would just need 15 or 20 years more. I wonder if the people in North-Ireland would be allowed to make a referendum for themselves ... how they would decide for their future at the moment.
The DUP do not represent everyone in NI. Every other political party and business/organisation have been calling for this from the start. And with Johnson's majority of -45, he doesn't need to dance to the DUP's tune.
@@Baccatube79 well if you have a better solution, acceptable to the majority in the UK and Ireland who no reasonable commentator thinks are in favour of a no deal Brexit then the floor is yours, let's hear the solution everyone has been missing for 3 years.
Hey, on the topic of the backstop, I'd would like to request a video(s) explaining the good friday and bloody sunday agreement explaining the history around that ... asking from a fan overseas :)
@Rufus E Bloody Sunday was the incident in 1972 when the British Army opened fire into a crowd of civilians peacefully protesting the arbitrary internment of hundreds of people that were suspected of being sympathetic to the IRA. 14 people were killed while fleeing or when they attempted to aid the wounded.
The country voted to LEAVE the EU. This isn't leaving, we're still paying 39 billion, we can only make laws that suit the EU laws, no change on fishing. The biggest con of my lifetime.
Nothing to add to the political discussion - just wanted to say cheers. I'm a kiwi political nerd and your videos help keep me in the loop and show off to friends who (understandably) aren't able to keep up. I know I should share your channel around but I just want to sound like a genius for a bit longer...
May cost Scotland too, if that proves the price of getting enough votes. It'll be interesting to find out if Conservatives are Leavers before Unionists, or Unionists before Leavers, if it comes to that. NI suggests possibly the former, despite all the protestations.
All this notion of "cost" of NI. Nothing changes for NI, it will be even "less" in the EU than now just 1/3 of EU laws applied. And is NI out of the UK now? No! Not much changes even with this deal.
This deal is a further step towards Northern Ireland being absorbed into the republic. The DUP would loose all influence at Stormont, and would indicate the UK's willingness to allow NI to break from the UK.
Machin Truc most of us don’t care. We just want brexit done with. Not even our politicians care about Northern Ireland. If they did they’d go to Stormont and do their jobs. They mostly just care about spiting the other side
K-Riddle93 it’s more like making NI stay in the backstop forever outside of Britain. This makes the backstop redundant. Ironically this is what the EU proposed originally but Theresa May wanted the whole UK to stay in the backstop.
@@gregoryfenn1462 The DUP wanted the messy backstop. May was forced to include the Backstopp as requested by the DUP, because... I guess for the same reason she had to trigger a general election: Pulling the trigger in the hope that the vote would workout in her favor.
No. May's deal kept the whole of the UK in the EU customs zone for the rest of eternity, or until the EU decided the UK were allowed to leave it. This one only keeps Northern Ireland in it, and gives Northern Ireland the unilateral decision to leave every 4 years if it chooses to. Something impossible under May's deal.
The main difference is being willing to go against the DUP by putting the border in the Irish Sea (with a few nominal fudges), which became possible when an election became likely, ending the linchpin status of the DUP's ten votes. (Or maybe earlier, when do many Conservatives rebelled, bringing Tory+DUP far from majority.)
Really appreciating the quality and speed of your updates!!! The research and production you've done in one day is nothing short of impeccable!!!!!! People at TLDR are working so hard just so that we can stay up to date with comprehensive and in dept analysis!!!
Stop calling it a new deal. It's the original deal proposed by the EU to May 2 years ego. About 20 pages changed. 20 pages out of 585 pages. That is about 3.4%. You cannot say it's a new deal if it's 96% the same deal.
Having watched some videos where people break down what the changes mean in practical terms, it is quite different. Being a separate customs union and no longer part of a large chunk of EU structures, is a huge thing. It's fairly underplayed here.
Doesn't matter... Vote no to the deal. They are agreeing to a no deal brexit. Vote for the deal and they are agreeing to brexit with the deal as it stands. Either way. We are leaving... Bye bye EU
actually if the MPs have the slightest signs of a backbone they will reject it as they did three times with mays deal wich was exactly the same deal with a different wording...
Honestly, Brexit is giving me so much anxiety. I know it's unlikely that his deal will pass, and I know that another extension is probably what will happen but oh my god... can we just not do this? Stringing along the public like this stresses me out. I'm just so disappointment what this country has become to be honest.
Brilliant production, however it would be worth mentioning that the Workers and Environmental protections have been shifted from the agreed part of the deal to the future discussion part.
Which allows whoever is in government to scrap it ... just like the promises the get the NHS more money (or even enough money), or not sell it, or giving schools more money (or even enough money), or give law enforcement more money (or enough money).
The money to the NHS was just a political lie to get people to vote for brexit anyway, Tories want privatise the NHS and Brexit will facilitate this, which means that one of the key reasons people voted to leave was a total lie and a manipulation of the people to vote for something they don’t want; a healthcare system that they do have to pay for
Jack, thanks so much. No plug at the beginning. I can't stress how much better this makes your videos. Great video as usual. Look forward to seeing how this all plays out.
I am not from UK but i have been watching a lot of tldr so if i am correct borris plan si actually mays plan since there is almost no difference to it?
Well Mays original backstop was throwing NI under the bus. Then the DUP said no so they needed to do something about it and the solution was a UK wide backstop. The current deal is back to throwing NI under the bus, but letting them vote how they want to be thrown under the bus.
@@Wolfenkuni If you consider NI to be part of the UK, I see why you consider that throwing NI under the Bus. From the point of view the NI is part of Ireland, then this is a step toward unification.
Please can you provide some commentary on what’s in the deal in relation to the core EU/UK workings? Immigration, movement of goods and people, and commercial impacts. We seem to be caught up in the Ireland issue, which whilst important is a logistical side issue to the main event.
If he tables a motion that gives parliament the choice between his deal or no deal, the parliament has effectively voted for no deal, which satisfies the Benn act's requirements.
@@naphackDT incorrect the Benn act requires a deal to be agreed by the 21st. A no deal has already been rejected. Parliamentary votes do not allow a one or other outcome. So he cannot table a vote for such a scenario. They vote to approve something or not. If they vote not to approve a deal Bojo is required by law to ask for an extension. The EU has in advance discussed this possibility with an extension of six months being prior approved to enable an election. With the possibility of a second referendum and a possible swing to remain in a public vote. The EU do not want to appear the bad guys. This is a rehashed may deal. Nobody believes this could or would pass UK parliament votes.
This is the last proof I need to see Brexit for what it is: the political issue that shows the lack of reform and lack of viability of the British political system. It's not just about getting out or staying in the EU; its about a constitutional crisis of the UK system and a crisis of identity, both dragged on for decades at least. The ball is entirely in the UK's park and they have every opportunity to stay, leave or try something else, but they have to decide on one thing. That they cant now after 3 years, soon an entire voting period long, just shows how incapable of making such a decision with a simple tiny majority their political system is and is in need of reform. 2/3 majority should have been minimum for such a big decision, like in many other democracies.
As someone from Belfast living with the dup my entire life, The DUP will not buckle or vote to risk their status. NI politics is completely different than the rest of the UK it's not based on what is smart or right it's based on not loosing ground to the enemy. The DUP very much still see themselves as they did 30 years ago trying to defend British culture in Ireland. Any means nessesary. Anything that threatens this they will not stand for and are alot Sturner than most politicians.
Thank you for all the work you put into these videos. I know they must take up a heap of time. Could you though take greater care when overlaying images over text? In so many slides the image renders the text completely unreadable making me wonder why there are slides at all and the video isn’t just delivered to camera. Tiny thing but something that’s been pretty consistent in your videos of late.
I’m still concerned this deal vote will only be used to get around the Benn act. Further legislation is needed to make the deal law, without it we are still due a no deal Brexit. If the deal wins the vote, nothing stops the government from blocking the legislation to enact it, resulting in no deal by time.
@@pussieswillneverbeheroes6019 Can I ask whether or not that was parody, because honestly if I wanted to parody the douchy way some people act over brexit calling myself leftie McGobshite or righty Sircumforbrains, etc and making a comment like that is probably the way I'd go about it. If not please just chill a bit, you are absolutely allowed to believe that leaving is for the better, but saikou is also allowed to believe that staying would have been better or that they prefer a deal and is allowed to be upset if they feel that the actions being taken are counter to what they believe are in the countries best interests just as you would probably be upset if Britain just decided to stay. I know it's easy to get swept up in rhetoric, but at the end of the day surely the fact that they expressed concern at all shows they actually care about what happens to the country that's got to be something you can empathise with, right? You could easily respond with arguments of your own, as to whether their concerns are valid over; the functioning of the Benn act, the entering into no deal, etc. Or you could express your own opinions and surely any of that would do a better job of convincing them than just assuming (strawmanning) that they support remain (which they never stated, they only expressed they disliked no deal) and then dismissing their genuine reflection as infantile behaviour. Another way you could have taken that better is instead of viewing every opinion opposing to yours as an affront to what is right, view it as an opportunity to find out where you could be wrong, because the best way to actually be right is to assume you are wrong and course correct when you can show you are. And if you're going to respond to this I would urge you to notice I have at no point stated on which side of the argument I fall, because I want you to learn to look at arguments by their own merit not by who is making them or what unrelated opinions they have.
Not a good sign that my first ad before this video was for Invest in Bavaria touting how if you move your business there you won't have to deal with the uncertainty of Brexit.
I'm sick of only hearing about the Irish backstop. What about laws, immigration control and fishing! Media and politicians seems to have glazed over these.
"Does the lack of support from DUP and Labour means that the Deal can't pass through Parliament? NO (if DUP decides to completely shift their position)" :D ok man, whatever you say
Well, the DUP might realize that they could have even less leverage, and get a worse deal (for their ideology), after an election. So, conceivably they could decide that this deal is better than what they might otherwise get (though my suspicion is that they'll vote against). But even if they do vote in favour, the deal still could be scuppered by rebel and ejected conservative MPs. So, I don't see how the math works out, unless the EU for some reason makes it seem like this deal or no deal or repeal on October 31, which sounds very unlike the EU, despite Macron. I can't imagine the EU (or its member states) essentially pushing the UK into an exit deal, when I imagine they suspect that an extension would eventually lead to a repeal of the Article 50 declaration once the UK is required to enforce financial disclosures, which would likely remove the motivation of many key Leave proponents. (Hence, the frantic urgency of the Leave movement, first for a deadline days before financial disclosure laws were required to be enacted, and another high-urgency deadline a few months before financial disclosure laws are required to be enforced.)
The deal seems like it has a poor chance of getting through Saturday, in many ways this is simply a polished version of the all Ireland backstop, and this approach where Johnson runs down the clock and represents May's deal with enough tweaks to call it new was a commonly predicted outcome as people began to see Johnson's strategy unfold. That said while I expect the deal to fail on Saturday and Boris to go for an extension having this deal and being able to look like the one who compromised and able to paint the other parties as intransigent will likely help Boris in the election.
> It won't pass parliament > Boris will be given the option of an extension, only if it is followed by elections in the next 3 months or a no-deal > Boris will get the extension > Britain will go to elections > Another PM > And than Brexit with no deal
Actually, Boris wouldn't need to quit if this deal is rejected. He said he'd complete Brexit, Deal or No Deal. One parliament reject this deal he can claim that he got a better deal than May (helps appease soft-Brexit supporters), but ultimately still kept his word and executed No Deal (consolidates support of No-Deal Brexiteers away from Farage). And the cherry on top is that he can say that he has respected the will of the people as expressed in the referendum. The Irish border is actually easy to solve from London's point of view. Simply say that the UK will not charge tariffs on imports into Northern Ireland. Call it a special economic zone or something. Now the only party trying to charge tariffs on that border will be the EU, so managing tariff collection will be a problem for Dublin and Brussels to sort out. London can just say "hey you want to charge tariffs, fine - you sort out how you want to manage that". In this scenario the Good Friday Agreement will be threatened by the EU, not the UK.
What more does Parliament need to do to ensure that Brexit actually happens in accordance with a legislatively approved "deal" ? I've been following Phil Moorehouse's channel, "A Different Bias" about as long as yours, and he has raised an issue which I don't believe has been mentioned on your own: Parliamentary approval of a "deal" is a necessary but not sufficient step for the UK to leave the EU with said deal. He has referred to something like "further obligations" (i.e., additional necessary legislation), and specifically mentioned something about further votes for "implementation" of the approved deal. He posits a potential "conspiracy" in which hard-line No-dealers (e.g., ERG, et al.) vote for the currently proposed deal with the understanding that there is not sufficient time to also vote on these additional requirements, thus (somehow) forcing the UK out of the EU with No Deal. Can you please address these issues ??? TYVM.
Basically this is throwing Irish Britons under the bus so that Johnson can be seen to have gotten a deal by an arbitrary date. It's a shit deal and a threat to the continued existence of the union. Can we still be a 'United Kingdom' if Scotland and Northern Ireland leave?
Instead of being in a separate customs union, goods shipped to Northern Ireland will get taxed as if they were going to the EU by default, and then you'll be able to submit for a rebate on those taxes if you prove they ended up in Northern Ireland. Also it locks Northern Ireland into regulatory alignment with the EU regarding things like VAT and tax. This relieves the need for a hard border and customs checks by basically giving the EU consideration on all of those things and instead taking the responsibility for organizing the impact onto ourselves.
Excellent well researched, impartial and balanced reporting! It’s refreshing to get the facts without any underlying agenda, and for that you get my sub.
In the same way that the majority of MPs voted in favour of triggering Article 50 I suspect that the majority will vote in favour of this deal. I hope for the sake of Britain they get a clue, reject this deal and instead of seeking another extension they stop Article 50 and reach consensus among the political parties and citizens before reactivating Article 50. Don't leave like this.
Repealing Article 50 must be done in good faith I understand. Intending to reinvoke it might not be considered so. But figuring out what might be acceptable to a majority of Parliament and of the public would certainly be a good thing.
I'll go for 5%. EU will offer an extension, despite Macron. Without the pressure of a possible no deal on October 31, I don't see the votes, even if ten or so Labour MPs cross over.
cardboard box it was never that way. The backstop idea has been twisted by BJ and those hardline Brexiteers that it was up to the EU to decide whether to end the backstop or not. But it was never that way.
@@andredingstertsao I can belief that it was never the EU's plan to put us in a situation where we where in there power if we agreed. If not what have I missed?
In my opinion, any deal should be voted on by the people before it takes effect, either by general election or second referendum. So we should postpone the deadline to allow that to happen.
But a second vote by the public would vote for the best possible deal... remain in the EU. Bojo then doesn't get all the backhand deals and bribes and profits for selling out the entire country and importing chlorinated American chicken.... and privatisation of the NHS... always remember it's about profiting off the British people.
Doesn't the 'regulatory border' violate UK law? The Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018 section 55 (1)It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain. (2)For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended.
Englands making since english settlers settled there and never managed to live with their neighbours and instead began to push them out. Similar to what some english citizens do today to immigrants and the EU. Neigter Reblic of Ireland nor the EU has anything do to with it, nor with the GFA which is the real millstone here.
No, the EU goal is to not have to enforce customs check at one of the most porous and politically inciendiary borders in the world. The EU goal is to avoid the creation of smuggling cartels. The EU has repeated over and over again that this is their goal and that they prefer to reach it by having the UK remain in the customs union and NI remain squarely in the UK. We got here not because of choices by the EU but because of British red lines. London would rather lose NI than be part of a customs union. The EU and Ireland never wanted any of this to happen.
@@ChilapaOfTheAmazons It's not EU fault that people from ROI and NI are practially living together like they had all the time. Better than civil war in any case.
*shrug*. Not sure how. NI, which voted heavily Remain, gets alignment with the EU. GFA is respected. The rest of the UK leaves on, likely, a Canada style FTA. NI was always primarily the UK's problem, more than Ireland's or the EU's, though all are signatories to the GFA I understand. Acknowledging and dealing with that is not surrender.
Surely the DUP don't want a border at the Irish Sea or at the current NI border, any Brexit scenario would result in either of these therefore there is no way for the DUP to be satisfied with any deal. That's why Johnson screwed them over with the new deal since it doesn't change the numbers in parliament
This, exactly. It's been years of noise and pointing at anything and everything, when since the 2017 election, nothing has been possible due to dependence on the DUP.
This deal may very well be illegal since mogg got a law passed 'its unlawful for the government to enter into arrangments under which it create a seperate customs territory in northern Ireland in 2018. That law is still active if that's true he may have already broken the law by negotiating the deal. Hence the deal is illegal and cannot be voted on.
@@MrXMysteriousX We already tried that, they just learnt to make ladders. What we could do is make salad compulsory with every meal south of the border, that'll deter them from ever coming.
What I suspect will happen is that the bill will be rejected by parliament tomorrow, the PM will have to ask for an extension due to the Benn Act, and we will continue down this road of uncertainty for another few months until we do it all over again. Either that, or there's a general election and/or a second referendum.
EXTRA INFO:
A weighted majority is 60% of Members of the Legislative Assembly present and voting, including at least 40% of each of the nationalist and unionist designations present and voting.
TLDR News power sharing at it's best.
I kind of feel it would be better for northern Ireland to join Ireland ... economics . Resources . And stability in the region
Isn't Ireland unity better for northern Ireland ?
I am not European and only state my opinion
Feels more logical 😐
@@mannamanam8233 No, the Republic doesn't have the resources to deal with the shitstorm that would happen. Britain could barely deal with it.
On an unrelated note, do you have any hoodies that say something like "I'm with My Right Honourable Friend -->" like the classic I'm with Stupid shirts, cause I think it would sell like hot cakes :-)
@@mannamanam8233 The issue is the "stability in the region" part. If a large majority of Unionist party supporters supported it, then it might be able to happen with some measure of stability (though even then a presumed small minority adamantly opposed could cause quite a bit of instability) ... but if they supported unification with Ireland, they wouldn't be Unionist party supporters, would they?
So pragmatically that is unification against the wishes of a large share of Unionist party supporters, and that seems like it would cause massive instability in the region. And that doesn't seem like it would be better than the current state of affairs.
Indeed, it seems like the GFA wouldn't have been necessary if it had been possible to have either unification or a hard border with the Republic without "instability".
Remember, when MP's went onto the barricades, because they feared, Northern Ireland could split away from the UK due to such a Deal, including Johnson?
These same guys are still there! Season 6 of Brexit incoming!
can't wait
Yeah imagine if this deal happens and NI gets split off from the UK customs zone while being united with Ireland... going for an Irish reunification would have never been more obvious.
Azrael the 8th season will be the worst
@@T33K3SS3LCH3N This deal is gonna lay exactly that in place. Under BoJo's deal they have to vote to remain in the customs union - he's just passing the buck for when that vote ultimately fails.
I thought we were still in season 4!
Uploaded 1 min ago and it's probably already obsolete
Oof, that's real
I LOLed but to be honest you're right.
What happened now?
@@ParticularCoconut Nothing specific, it's just that in one of their previous videos they had to disclaim that political conditions had already changed as they were making it. Kudos to TLDR New for keeping up on this crazy hamster wheel!
@@mightywurlitzer I'm calling it now, this deal gets shafted in parliament and an extension will be negotiated. I'd be surprised to see this process end by the end of 2030
I am starting to think this Brexit thing is complicated.
Who knew Brexit could be so complicated? (Ed. Note: This is Trump reference. It might not be understood in the UK).
@@somecallmejoey ?? Ed. Note means "Editors' Note" and it's just an old trope for 'this is explanatory text". Am I missing something?
@PlebzOr Blapparapp Sadly as a diagnosed insomniac, I really don't have much choice in the matter :-) Plus I am honestly and truly on pins and needles wondering what is going to happen over there in the next 24 hours. I think it's probably because wondering what is going to happen over *here* in the next 24 hours always scares the bejeezus out of me.
*starting*
marsupius 🤣🤣🤣
This is not the end - this is not even the beginning of the end of Brexit. There is years of negotiation ahead if this passes.
Zantorc yeah, but if it passes BoJo will looks like a winner, as if he was the one who save brexit. It’s more a political move then a resolution…
The transition deal is actually very detailed about EU-UK relationship and in theory it could become a permanent deal keeping most of the details in place if both parties agree. Maybe the hardest meditation negotiations are over.
@@ChilapaOfTheAmazons I don't think so. The text of the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration is vague in some parts. Once the negotiations start in ernest, it will need at least a decade and probably longer to thrash out the final details. Plus some particularly difficult areas are not even mentioned.
@@wilmaknickersfit which areas are not mentioned?
@@ilianceroni yes you are correct he has put spin on this like its best thing since slice bread, and it is not , its a few points changed, but the Leavers are hailing him a a hero, like the State opening of Parliament he wanted all the pomp and ceremony he was delighting in it, i wonder how many times a non elected PM with a Minority Govt has had all this , and what it cost the Tax payer . hes a glory hunter and that demonic Cumming wrote what makes it sound and look good. you can not polish a Turd.
So in essence, the backstop has been given a completely new name.
@Dušan Xmetov you are correct. Before it was the potential for it to the eu to keep the uk tied in indefinitely.. now there is a mechanism for the people of NI to walk away. I'm not a massive fan of the deal. But saying it's not an improvement it's just plain wrong
No, this is very different. The Backstop tied the whole UK into the customs union for as long as the EU felt necessary. This deal essentially means two borders for four years subject to NI approval afterwards. NI will be tied in the customs union whilst the rest of the UK will diverge and be able to negotiate trade deals like FTA's and PTA's with 3rd countries as well as work on building a new trade relationship with the EU. During the transition though (until late 2020 or beyond) we will still remain in the EU single market. So no changes will come in overnight on free movement of goods, services, capital, and people. Other things like EU citizen's health cover will stop (if I have gathered all this correctly).
Yeah, a front stop
@@jamesgsamu1 there's no such phrase
@Dušan Xmetov It actually looks more like a 'preclearance zone', just like the 'American terminals' in most major Canadian airports. Those places are technically under the jurisdiction of Canadian government, however the everyone entering (at least all the passengers) should go through the CBP and get approved for immigration, customs and regulation (mostly agricultural, where the US government takes SERIOUSLY), so that when they take a flight to the USA, they're treated as 'domestic travelers'.
Hmm... strange... I feel as if I have already seen a similar situation not so long ago...
Yes... once again they are out of ideas, and are reusing material from season 2...
@@ThoriberoCaroli The thing is that UK cant get what they want. If they want a deal they will have to take one that they refused already. Im seeing that EU leaders are fed up with this UK drama, and hopefuly veto the extention. Face it, its ridiculous for UK parlament to reject a deal and than yell at the government that they have no deal... surely adequate human being would not do such thing, unless they have some hidden motives or see it as a benefit. Well they managed to resign may, maybe that was theyr plan all along?
@@vytisagafonovas3887 Indeed.
Much of the problem, I believe, is that the UK as an entity, does not know what it wants in the first place. There is no single ideological group or party, with their idea of brexit/remain, which have a majority in a system where a majority is required to pass legislation.
And the same thing would be seen in a people's vote. In the latest one, half wanted to remain, but on what terms? And half wanted to leave, but on what terms?
Boiled down to one issue, leave/remain, there might be a majority.
But unfortunately, this is not a one issue problem.
In the end there are only two ways out of this:
1. Find a compromise that reaches a majority, in parliament or a people’s vote, which will depend on all involved giving up key things.
2. Let the group with the largest minority get their idea through, in parliament or a people’s vote. Which though will lead to the majority of the country getting ruled by a minority.
Not an easy way out in any case.
@@ThoriberoCaroli Remain on current terns. What terms are you imagining in a remain scenario? The UK government or Parliament unilaterally decides that the UK should remain and we move on. That's it. Too bad most MPs and the government are unwilling to organise a second referendum. Keep in mind that the first referendum wasn't constitutionally binding. A fact that hardline brexiteers conveniently ignore. As I have previously said: ”What about the amendment that has passed by accident that stipulates that the only deal that Parliament has the option to agree to is May's deal or no deal? Why would MP's agree to a weaker deal? If they're stubbornly rejecting a second referendum between the 2 deals, no deal or remain, why not choose May's deal and move on since doing nothing will mean crashing out without a deal anyway?”
@@ThoriberoCaroli The Uk honestly just reminds me of when im on my period.
Schrodingers Northern Ireland - it's in the UK and not in the UK at the same time.
The biggest physics experiment ever, brought to you by BoJo!
He and Cummings had to find a subtle way to throw the DUP under the bus, since that was the only way a deal would become possible. Expecting an election, after which the DUP would be unlikely to hold the same pivotal status, they took out the knives so that they could say they achieved a deal, but couldn't be 100% obvious about doing over a supposed partner. I doubt that many are fooled, judging by comments I've seen, but appearances apparently matter.
ROTFL noclaf you made my day.
*”In the game of Parliament you either win or get forced to reign.”*
*Cersei Lannister*
KurdRipper a Lannister always pays his debts
@@IamMrkay "Winters coming" for England
Boris: The EU is terrible! They should have no influence on UK parlaiment!
Also Boris: Say, EU... could you help me push this deal through parlaiment?
Your understanding of the situation is about as good as your spelling of the word parliament.
@ "Oh no, I made a spelling mistake! This must mean I'm automaticly wrong!" Guess there was no argument to turn to, so you went for my knowledge of a language that's not even my primary language?
@ And I stated the fact that you provide no argument for your statement. Spelling is no issue on a global media as the internet; I dare you to spell anything in dutch right after typing comments in said language every day.. not to mention my spell checker reflects the language my computer was installed in; dutch. (so no help there on english)
Perhaps it had not occurred to you that spelling is on low priority when one makes a joke online. Whenever my statement is wrong is up to you to grow a sense of humor; as it is a joke... A joke on something we all know is a likely possibility, but you took offense on, because god forbid if it was true.
@@elwinvanhuissteden7729 exactly how is Boris begging for the EU to help him push a deal through?
They already negotiated and both sides agree,he doesn't need the EU to do anything,he needs MPs to vote for it and none of those MPs answer to the EU,they answer to the UK populace.
At this point after all the crying about "we must have a deal!" They now have one,if they fail to vote for this deal then they are illustrating it was never about a deal and was always about stopping Brexit and with the sentiment of the British population being against MPs who wish to Remain you don't wanna see the outrage and backlash if the MPs once more refuse it.
@@elwinvanhuissteden7729 I think Dutch is one of the most beautiful languages in the world but not for computers("Gegevens aanpassen") or something like that just sounds bad. So i would be pleased if you would change your computer language to english.
Let’s step back from the situation and look at this - whether you want to leave or remain, you have to admit that the proximity to the deadline, with the hastiness with which this deal was put together, and the stunning lack of scrutiny it will have, is not the way to treat the “biggest decision of a generation”.
leftie McGobshite The 3 years clearly isn’t enough, since all of the deals except for this one have been rejected. Plus, Jack Perry is focusing on the fact that this deal, which was negotiated by Boris Johnson. He effectively had 2 months to make a deal when 3 years worth of negotiation failed.
leftie McGobshite No, I’m saying a couple of weeks negotiating with half a day of debate isn’t long enough.
leftie McGobshite Well that’s your opinion and that’s fair enough. I’d say leaving on this deal should be out of the question. But the country is split, what are you gonna do?
Neither was the referendum.
To be fair with Johnson, he didn't have to negotiate from Scratch, he basically just took May's Deal, told the EU "Everything with it is fine except the Backstop, let's talk about that" and they renegotiated solely over the Backstop to bring a more complicated solution.
This has been absolutely entertaining and exciting (for someone living abroad like me). Thank you TLDR for keeping us updated with quick and clear explanations.
What I don't like is that I have lived on this Island my whole life; yet I don't get a vote on what is done with it.
@Britannia's Pride Depends how young he is. Depends if, like me, he was disabled and denied a postal or proxy vote at the last minute for no damned good reason, like thousands of others who have access issues.
@Britannia's Pride You don't know that.
Maybe he's Irish, they didn't get a vote.
i didn't get a vote. i was 16 at the time.
@Mancunian Candidate HMMM maybe because the English are occupying an irish land .(good reason to vote OR??
This feels like a slow-motion planecrash
The difference is that you know the plane will crash. Here nothing is certain.
@@davepratt9909 That's right. The plane can either crash, or end up at the bottom of the Marianas Trench.
@@davepratt9909 Since BJ promised a plane-crash, I'm absolutely convinced that he will most definitely try to crash it! One would be absolutely mad to try and stop him.
Won't BoJo end up in a ditch then?
Well suddenly it doesn't seem so slow-motion any more.....
"It's a good deal because NI has access to the single market..." just admiting the benefits of belonging to the EU??!! What about the rest of UK??!!
The single market is (for the most part) a benefit of the EU. People wanted out of the EU because of the laws, the immigration and the money being paid to support other nations.
Just because the EU has benefits does not mean it is the correct decision to remain.
:O YOU'RE RIGHT! Lets stay then right. Cuz ONE good thing means its entirely good!
Yeah it has many flaws to it but its a weigh up of whether they're worth living with as appose to the flaws of a brexit, especially a poorly handled one
Sod the rest of UK! They hate the UK, so they're only willing to let NI retain any of the benefits of EU membership, whilst at the same time screwing things up for anyone who "exports" from the mainland UK to NI.
They had to be forced to stay in.
As far as one can make out, all objection that Johnson had about May as Prime Minister had nothing to do with ideology about Brexit, but with his own leadership ambitions. This is one reason why ordinary voters think politicians have no integrity.
It's an intricate balance. The games of politics requires you to sacrifice integrity for power. However, without power, one cannot push any agenda/ideology.
Johnson' objection was not at May being PM, it was because she went behind everyone's back and set up a deal that was pretty well the worst possible. That was articulated quite clearly but it seems to have gone over your head.
@@frozensync That's often the case, but it does require a politician to have some integrity in the first place. It's clear that at least as far back as his time at Oxford, Johnson has no integrity. His political style is to lie like a snake to get the job done and say what his listeners want to hear.
The back stop going changes the situation significantly.The fact that May was adamant it couldn't be removed and Boris did just that demonstrates May was an utterly terrible leader.
As we've now seen,his no deal bluster was enough to get the EU to reconsider.
So what we have in fact seen was the Mays approach had been beyond extremely soft and lead to so much of the turmoil of the past 3+ years,all because she took no deal off the table.
I'm no fan of Boris,i don't trust him but clearly he's done in a couple of months,with the threat of no deal on the table,what May couldn't in 3 years with it off.
That tells you that taking No deal off was a catastrophic mistake and anyone who tied Boris' hands by trying to take it off the table harmed the likelihood of getting the deal they claimed they wanted so much.
Mays Plan was Rejected by the entire house 3 times. Would you say they all wanted her space? There's something about her deal that nobody liked. Johnson has changed the narrative. No longer will the whole of UK be subject to EU custom laws (May), just Nothern Ireland (Johnson)
Clearly,
May did a better job negotiating a deal than Boris,
and May ended up quitting.
What does that mean for you Boris?
@Daniel Smith They aren't really cowards they just want him to get an extension as he has no majority in parliament (which I why he wants a general election). Boris has no power atm
@Daniel Smith because who could trust the word about of HM Johnson about keeping election date before Brexit date when he betray DUP after all this time lol
and they woon
Season 4 final battle HYPE
It'll probably get renewed for a 5th season where the scripts become crap and they don't quite know what story they want to tell.
@@JoannaHammond so true hahah
It still has a long way to go even if this gets through
Top 10 anime twists
Will BoJo win the WWB title tomorrow or will he tap out!!
The safest thing to do is back off, wait 100 years and see if we are capable of doing Brexit once we grow up a bit.
Fuck yes.
Haha this actually makes sense. Let things cool off.
We should also just stop doing democracy
Yeah wait until our economy is 100% integrated with theirs..
Can't wait for our AI overlords to take control
Well done getting this out so quick!
Misses alot of detail as a result
Not a chance DUP will change their minds. Literally all they do is say no to everything, no matter how logical it is
So let me get this straight: Johnson's basically trying to passing May's chequers deal, the very unpopular deal that Parliament blocked multiple times? This is gonna be a fun dumpster fire to watch.
I only regret that whatever they vote on, Mr. Bercow is leaving. I will miss him on these videos.
You like Bercow LOL? Idiot
In other words: NI becomes a special administrative region and is, thus, alienated from the UK. That's exactly what the DUP don't want.
Do you feel alienated from the UK at the moment? North Ireland will practically be the same just with 66% "less EU" than UK has now. It's more or less heading to a united ireland anyway, would just need 15 or 20 years more. I wonder if the people in North-Ireland would be allowed to make a referendum for themselves ... how they would decide for their future at the moment.
@@AaronOkeanos I am German, so I can only shake my head, anyways. I just tried a political evaluation - and it is: ends all up in bog roll.
The DUP do not represent everyone in NI. Every other political party and business/organisation have been calling for this from the start. And with Johnson's majority of -45, he doesn't need to dance to the DUP's tune.
@@AaronJCassidy No, he doesn't need to dance at all - there is no way he'll find a majority for this crappy unsolution.
@@Baccatube79 well if you have a better solution, acceptable to the majority in the UK and Ireland who no reasonable commentator thinks are in favour of a no deal Brexit then the floor is yours, let's hear the solution everyone has been missing for 3 years.
If I’m being honest, Johnson looks quite good for someone who’s supposed to be dead in a ditch
Its Saturday, Johnson enters the House of Commons...then asks: "Why am I hearing boss music?"
The word you want is no BOSS, the correct word is BS.
He looks up to the speaker chair and instead of good ol' Bercow he sees angry queen wielding her fancy mace with corgis growling next to her feet.
@@MatherfuckingKing Awesome image to behold.
Saturday parliament sitting is about to be fire...Something worth watching while I eat dinner, hopefully something as spicy as the situation.
prepare a few bottles of red wine for maximum entertainment
Not too spicy, mind: it might end up being an all-night sitting!
Hey, on the topic of the backstop, I'd would like to request a video(s) explaining the good friday and bloody sunday agreement explaining the history around that ... asking from a fan overseas :)
@Rufus E Bloody Sunday was the incident in 1972 when the British Army opened fire into a crowd of civilians peacefully protesting the arbitrary internment of hundreds of people that were suspected of being sympathetic to the IRA. 14 people were killed while fleeing or when they attempted to aid the wounded.
long story short if you divide ireland people start dying, the good friday agreement is there to stop ireland from being divided.
also don't get it wrong or you'll find your offices my get a telephone call
The country voted to LEAVE the EU. This isn't leaving, we're still paying 39 billion, we can only make laws that suit the EU laws, no change on fishing. The biggest con of my lifetime.
Yes, leavers have been scammed. That's what remainers (and everyone with sanity) told them from the beginning.
Thanks - an excellent summary. I don't know where you get all this info from but I wish the media were as informative and you guys.
They just invent it.
Nothing to add to the political discussion - just wanted to say cheers. I'm a kiwi political nerd and your videos help keep me in the loop and show off to friends who (understandably) aren't able to keep up. I know I should share your channel around but I just want to sound like a genius for a bit longer...
- Did you get brexit done?
- Yes
- What did it cost?
- Northern Ireland
May cost Scotland too, if that proves the price of getting enough votes. It'll be interesting to find out if Conservatives are Leavers before Unionists, or Unionists before Leavers, if it comes to that. NI suggests possibly the former, despite all the protestations.
All this notion of "cost" of NI. Nothing changes for NI, it will be even "less" in the EU than now just 1/3 of EU laws applied. And is NI out of the UK now? No! Not much changes even with this deal.
This deal is a further step towards Northern Ireland being absorbed into the republic. The DUP would loose all influence at Stormont, and would indicate the UK's willingness to allow NI to break from the UK.
I'm curious, what does the Northen Irish think of this whole mess ?
And Scotland would then follow
Machin Truc most of us don’t care. We just want brexit done with. Not even our politicians care about Northern Ireland. If they did they’d go to Stormont and do their jobs. They mostly just care about spiting the other side
good. ireland should be united. there's no downside to this.
The house doesn’t know what it wants. I’ll be surprised if it passes.
A rebate system is the simplest solution to avoid a border and questionable technological systems.
Love how quick your videos appear after any brexit news. Much appreciated and great content. Cheers!
Am I the only one who thinks this is just the Backstop but with extra steps
K-Riddle93 it’s more like making NI stay in the backstop forever outside of Britain. This makes the backstop redundant. Ironically this is what the EU proposed originally but Theresa May wanted the whole UK to stay in the backstop.
It’s Mays deal, there are 6 slight amendments. Nearly just rewording.
It’s complete crap.
@@gregoryfenn1462 The DUP wanted the messy backstop. May was forced to include the Backstopp as requested by the DUP, because... I guess for the same reason she had to trigger a general election: Pulling the trigger in the hope that the vote would workout in her favor.
I look forward to the monthly rejection of the deal tradition. It helps me mark the passage of time.
as does the yearly 'asking for an extension' ceremony which includes a transportable ditch and a green comic figure
Panto-politics. A tragi-comic pageantry of poses, gestures, and sounds resonating loudly in empty skulls.
So essentially the same thing as May's deal, but a different wording?
Jeesh...
No. May's deal kept the whole of the UK in the EU customs zone for the rest of eternity, or until the EU decided the UK were allowed to leave it. This one only keeps Northern Ireland in it, and gives Northern Ireland the unilateral decision to leave every 4 years if it chooses to. Something impossible under May's deal.
The main difference is being willing to go against the DUP by putting the border in the Irish Sea (with a few nominal fudges), which became possible when an election became likely, ending the linchpin status of the DUP's ten votes. (Or maybe earlier, when do many Conservatives rebelled, bringing Tory+DUP far from majority.)
Really appreciating the quality and speed of your updates!!! The research and production you've done in one day is nothing short of impeccable!!!!!! People at TLDR are working so hard just so that we can stay up to date with comprehensive and in dept analysis!!!
Stop calling it a new deal. It's the original deal proposed by the EU to May 2 years ego. About 20 pages changed. 20 pages out of 585 pages. That is about 3.4%. You cannot say it's a new deal if it's 96% the same deal.
Agreed
Having watched some videos where people break down what the changes mean in practical terms, it is quite different.
Being a separate customs union and no longer part of a large chunk of EU structures, is a huge thing. It's fairly underplayed here.
Johnsons Odds of Getting the Deal Through: By this point just flip a coin.
Doesn't matter...
Vote no to the deal. They are agreeing to a no deal brexit.
Vote for the deal and they are agreeing to brexit with the deal as it stands.
Either way. We are leaving... Bye bye EU
@@sahhull Damn right.
and if it stands on the rim he'll get his deal voted for - trust in the old and wise (not my words) parliament of Westminster
@@sahhull ha, yeah bye bye tommy no one gonna miss ya
actually if the MPs have the slightest signs of a backbone they will reject it as they did three times with mays deal wich was exactly the same deal with a different wording...
Yay another Brexit video. Hope we get an extension so there is nothing but Brexit videos for the next 6 months. Lol.
"Phytosanitary"??
Good word bro
Jay K they didn’t make it up..
@@gregoryfenn1462 someone did
Honestly, Brexit is giving me so much anxiety. I know it's unlikely that his deal will pass, and I know that another extension is probably what will happen but oh my god... can we just not do this? Stringing along the public like this stresses me out. I'm just so disappointment what this country has become to be honest.
Brilliant production, however it would be worth mentioning that the Workers and Environmental protections have been shifted from the agreed part of the deal to the future discussion part.
Which allows whoever is in government to scrap it ... just like the promises the get the NHS more money (or even enough money), or not sell it, or giving schools more money (or even enough money), or give law enforcement more money (or enough money).
The money to the NHS was just a political lie to get people to vote for brexit anyway, Tories want privatise the NHS and Brexit will facilitate this, which means that one of the key reasons people voted to leave was a total lie and a manipulation of the people to vote for something they don’t want; a healthcare system that they do have to pay for
As an American, I'm really looking forward to seeing a reunited Ireland and independent Scotland soon.
Jack, thanks so much. No plug at the beginning. I can't stress how much better this makes your videos. Great video as usual. Look forward to seeing how this all plays out.
The EU members states will decide on an extension not Junker or Verhoffstad.
Remoaner alert!!
@@dejavucmail8176 No, it is just a fact. What have facts to do with if he is a remoaner or not?
It's true that member states have the final vote but if the European Commission recommends one way or another that's going to have a lot of weight.
I'm hoping they reject boris deal, then a native European country votes veto on an extension and we crash out on no deal.
TheMarker2015 L.S then you're an idiot
Excellent video on an extremely confusing topic. You are really providing an important service!
I am not from UK but i have been watching a lot of tldr so if i am correct borris plan si actually mays plan since there is almost no difference to it?
Well Mays original backstop was throwing NI under the bus. Then the DUP said no so they needed to do something about it and the solution was a UK wide backstop.
The current deal is back to throwing NI under the bus, but letting them vote how they want to be thrown under the bus.
@@Wolfenkuni If you consider NI to be part of the UK, I see why you consider that throwing NI under the Bus.
From the point of view the NI is part of Ireland, then this is a step toward unification.
Please can you provide some commentary on what’s in the deal in relation to the core EU/UK workings? Immigration, movement of goods and people, and commercial impacts. We seem to be caught up in the Ireland issue, which whilst important is a logistical side issue to the main event.
This isn't a deal it is a new treaty! We have been shafted!
OR they could revoke.. it's still the easiest option to get done in a short period of time.
I think Boris would be forced to ask EU for an extension, after Saturday.
If he tables a motion that gives parliament the choice between his deal or no deal, the parliament has effectively voted for no deal, which satisfies the Benn act's requirements.
@@naphackDT that's not how it works
A motion is to be answered with Yes or No only.
@@naphackDT incorrect the Benn act requires a deal to be agreed by the 21st. A no deal has already been rejected. Parliamentary votes do not allow a one or other outcome. So he cannot table a vote for such a scenario. They vote to approve something or not. If they vote not to approve a deal Bojo is required by law to ask for an extension. The EU has in advance discussed this possibility with an extension of six months being prior approved to enable an election. With the possibility of a second referendum and a possible swing to remain in a public vote. The EU do not want to appear the bad guys. This is a rehashed may deal. Nobody believes this could or would pass UK parliament votes.
@Mancunian Candidate I listen to Tusk, not Junker. Junker often speaks without remembering that the member states are the ones who make the decisions.
Perfect timing on the release of the video!
I think no one thought he'd get this far so who's to say whether he'll succeed
This is the last proof I need to see Brexit for what it is: the political issue that shows the lack of reform and lack of viability of the British political system. It's not just about getting out or staying in the EU; its about a constitutional crisis of the UK system and a crisis of identity, both dragged on for decades at least.
The ball is entirely in the UK's park and they have every opportunity to stay, leave or try something else, but they have to decide on one thing. That they cant now after 3 years, soon an entire voting period long, just shows how incapable of making such a decision with a simple tiny majority their political system is and is in need of reform. 2/3 majority should have been minimum for such a big decision, like in many other democracies.
So this is a rebranded Mays deal, well we all know what happened to that so expect the same here.
As someone from Belfast living with the dup my entire life, The DUP will not buckle or vote to risk their status. NI politics is completely different than the rest of the UK it's not based on what is smart or right it's based on not loosing ground to the enemy. The DUP very much still see themselves as they did 30 years ago trying to defend British culture in Ireland. Any means nessesary. Anything that threatens this they will not stand for and are alot Sturner than most politicians.
As a remainer, to me this doesn’t sound too bad.
The key will be getting the FTA if they don't get one than this will be a bad deal imo
Thank you for all the work you put into these videos. I know they must take up a heap of time. Could you though take greater care when overlaying images over text? In so many slides the image renders the text completely unreadable making me wonder why there are slides at all and the video isn’t just delivered to camera. Tiny thing but something that’s been pretty consistent in your videos of late.
I’m still concerned this deal vote will only be used to get around the Benn act. Further legislation is needed to make the deal law, without it we are still due a no deal Brexit.
If the deal wins the vote, nothing stops the government from blocking the legislation to enact it, resulting in no deal by time.
Can't wait for no deal then :)
@@pussieswillneverbeheroes6019 Can I ask whether or not that was parody, because honestly if I wanted to parody the douchy way some people act over brexit calling myself leftie McGobshite or righty Sircumforbrains, etc and making a comment like that is probably the way I'd go about it. If not please just chill a bit, you are absolutely allowed to believe that leaving is for the better, but saikou is also allowed to believe that staying would have been better or that they prefer a deal and is allowed to be upset if they feel that the actions being taken are counter to what they believe are in the countries best interests just as you would probably be upset if Britain just decided to stay. I know it's easy to get swept up in rhetoric, but at the end of the day surely the fact that they expressed concern at all shows they actually care about what happens to the country that's got to be something you can empathise with, right? You could easily respond with arguments of your own, as to whether their concerns are valid over; the functioning of the Benn act, the entering into no deal, etc. Or you could express your own opinions and surely any of that would do a better job of convincing them than just assuming (strawmanning) that they support remain (which they never stated, they only expressed they disliked no deal) and then dismissing their genuine reflection as infantile behaviour. Another way you could have taken that better is instead of viewing every opinion opposing to yours as an affront to what is right, view it as an opportunity to find out where you could be wrong, because the best way to actually be right is to assume you are wrong and course correct when you can show you are. And if you're going to respond to this I would urge you to notice I have at no point stated on which side of the argument I fall, because I want you to learn to look at arguments by their own merit not by who is making them or what unrelated opinions they have.
Not a good sign that my first ad before this video was for Invest in Bavaria touting how if you move your business there you won't have to deal with the uncertainty of Brexit.
So, did it entice you to investigate? ;-)
Its funny watching DUP and Irish Unionists be like 'We're British" and Britain be like "Get away from us" 😂😂😂
I'm sick of only hearing about the Irish backstop. What about laws, immigration control and fishing! Media and politicians seems to have glazed over these.
Well, the Irish backstop and border situation could lead to civil war (or at least violent conflicts), so it kinda takes priority
think of how many more smuggling jobs will be available. be great fun guys
Fun
'Hey can I borrow your homework?'
'Sure but make it look different, so it doesn't look like you just copied it.'
can´t wait for "Brexit - Aftermath" Season 1. I heard they have George Miller directing.
Misread that as Gina Miller - nearly choked on my coffee!
Gina Miller Hates native Europeans
Will you make a video about the issue of the Northen Ireland Assembly and how it sits rarely? Or do you not want to touch that with a 5 mile pole?
"Does the lack of support from DUP and Labour means that the Deal can't pass through Parliament? NO (if DUP decides to completely shift their position)" :D ok man, whatever you say
Well, the DUP might realize that they could have even less leverage, and get a worse deal (for their ideology), after an election. So, conceivably they could decide that this deal is better than what they might otherwise get (though my suspicion is that they'll vote against). But even if they do vote in favour, the deal still could be scuppered by rebel and ejected conservative MPs. So, I don't see how the math works out, unless the EU for some reason makes it seem like this deal or no deal or repeal on October 31, which sounds very unlike the EU, despite Macron. I can't imagine the EU (or its member states) essentially pushing the UK into an exit deal, when I imagine they suspect that an extension would eventually lead to a repeal of the Article 50 declaration once the UK is required to enforce financial disclosures, which would likely remove the motivation of many key Leave proponents. (Hence, the frantic urgency of the Leave movement, first for a deadline days before financial disclosure laws were required to be enacted, and another high-urgency deadline a few months before financial disclosure laws are required to be enforced.)
The deal seems like it has a poor chance of getting through Saturday, in many ways this is simply a polished version of the all Ireland backstop, and this approach where Johnson runs down the clock and represents May's deal with enough tweaks to call it new was a commonly predicted outcome as people began to see Johnson's strategy unfold. That said while I expect the deal to fail on Saturday and Boris to go for an extension having this deal and being able to look like the one who compromised and able to paint the other parties as intransigent will likely help Boris in the election.
He and Cummings sure seem to think so.
Are there MPs who have been wanting a soft Brexit, but would be voting to revoke Article 50 if the other choices were this deal or no deal?
Joshua Hillerup interesting question!!!
> It won't pass parliament
> Boris will be given the option of an extension, only if it is followed by elections in the next 3 months or a no-deal
> Boris will get the extension
> Britain will go to elections
> Another PM
> And than Brexit with no deal
Actually, Boris wouldn't need to quit if this deal is rejected. He said he'd complete Brexit, Deal or No Deal. One parliament reject this deal he can claim that he got a better deal than May (helps appease soft-Brexit supporters), but ultimately still kept his word and executed No Deal (consolidates support of No-Deal Brexiteers away from Farage). And the cherry on top is that he can say that he has respected the will of the people as expressed in the referendum.
The Irish border is actually easy to solve from London's point of view. Simply say that the UK will not charge tariffs on imports into Northern Ireland. Call it a special economic zone or something. Now the only party trying to charge tariffs on that border will be the EU, so managing tariff collection will be a problem for Dublin and Brussels to sort out. London can just say "hey you want to charge tariffs, fine - you sort out how you want to manage that". In this scenario the Good Friday Agreement will be threatened by the EU, not the UK.
News from the EU 27: we are tired of this BREXIT nonsense. Please leave or shut up!
What more does Parliament need to do to ensure that Brexit actually happens in accordance with a legislatively approved "deal" ?
I've been following Phil Moorehouse's channel, "A Different Bias" about as long as yours, and he has raised an issue which I don't believe has been mentioned on your own: Parliamentary approval of a "deal" is a necessary but not sufficient step for the UK to leave the EU with said deal. He has referred to something like "further obligations" (i.e., additional necessary legislation), and specifically mentioned something about further votes for "implementation" of the approved deal. He posits a potential "conspiracy" in which hard-line No-dealers (e.g., ERG, et al.) vote for the currently proposed deal with the understanding that there is not sufficient time to also vote on these additional requirements, thus (somehow) forcing the UK out of the EU with No Deal.
Can you please address these issues ??? TYVM.
Just watched this vid but I feel confused... whats the current Brexit plan differs from the 2 borders for 4 years plan?
Primarily it moves the customs border back from the Ireland/Northern Ireland border, to the sea between Northern Ireland and England
The main difference is that this is Johnson's Deal and not May's Deal. That is very important for Johnson.
Basically this is throwing Irish Britons under the bus so that Johnson can be seen to have gotten a deal by an arbitrary date. It's a shit deal and a threat to the continued existence of the union. Can we still be a 'United Kingdom' if Scotland and Northern Ireland leave?
Instead of being in a separate customs union, goods shipped to Northern Ireland will get taxed as if they were going to the EU by default, and then you'll be able to submit for a rebate on those taxes if you prove they ended up in Northern Ireland. Also it locks Northern Ireland into regulatory alignment with the EU regarding things like VAT and tax.
This relieves the need for a hard border and customs checks by basically giving the EU consideration on all of those things and instead taking the responsibility for organizing the impact onto ourselves.
@@AnonEyeMouse The United Kingdom of England and Wales. We could even get a cool dragon on our flag. Think positively :).
Accuracy please. The exit bill is £33B not 39.
"Island of Ireland."
Excellent well researched, impartial and balanced reporting! It’s refreshing to get the facts without any underlying agenda, and for that you get my sub.
Lmao this is just May's Deal repackaged
Ishaan Menon but it’s better
In the same way that the majority of MPs voted in favour of triggering Article 50 I suspect that the majority will vote in favour of this deal. I hope for the sake of Britain they get a clue, reject this deal and instead of seeking another extension they stop Article 50 and reach consensus among the political parties and citizens before reactivating Article 50.
Don't leave like this.
Repealing Article 50 must be done in good faith I understand. Intending to reinvoke it might not be considered so. But figuring out what might be acceptable to a majority of Parliament and of the public would certainly be a good thing.
52% chance he gets it.
I'll go for 5%. EU will offer an extension, despite Macron. Without the pressure of a possible no deal on October 31, I don't see the votes, even if ten or so Labour MPs cross over.
Ooph. This is getting more and more complicated. So the final decision is tomorrow, isn't it? That's my birthday. What a strange present.
So it's basically May's plan with a slightly different spin?
Pretty much.
My understanding is this one as a definite where exiting the EU point. Unlike mays deal where we leave when they say we can.
cardboard box it was never that way. The backstop idea has been twisted by BJ and those hardline Brexiteers that it was up to the EU to decide whether to end the backstop or not. But it was never that way.
Well there are certain guidelines and redlines to follow so any deal that actually get agreed with the EU will be similar
@@andredingstertsao I can belief that it was never the EU's plan to put us in a situation where we where in there power if we agreed. If not what have I missed?
too many adverts dude
In my opinion, any deal should be voted on by the people before it takes effect, either by general election or second referendum. So we should postpone the deadline to allow that to happen.
But a second vote by the public would vote for the best possible deal... remain in the EU. Bojo then doesn't get all the backhand deals and bribes and profits for selling out the entire country and importing chlorinated American chicken.... and privatisation of the NHS... always remember it's about profiting off the British people.
Doesn't the 'regulatory border' violate UK law? The Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018 section 55
(1)It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain.
(2)For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended.
As stated in the video, NI will stay in UK customs territory.
So it doesn't conflict here.
Seems like the long term goal of the EU is for NI to be wrenched from the UK.
The price of the UK daring to leave the EU.
Englands making since english settlers settled there and never managed to live with their neighbours and instead began to push them out. Similar to what some english citizens do today to immigrants and the EU. Neigter Reblic of Ireland nor the EU has anything do to with it, nor with the GFA which is the real millstone here.
No, the EU goal is to not have to enforce customs check at one of the most porous and politically inciendiary borders in the world. The EU goal is to avoid the creation of smuggling cartels. The EU has repeated over and over again that this is their goal and that they prefer to reach it by having the UK remain in the customs union and NI remain squarely in the UK.
We got here not because of choices by the EU but because of British red lines.
London would rather lose NI than be part of a customs union. The EU and Ireland never wanted any of this to happen.
@@ChilapaOfTheAmazons It's not EU fault that people from ROI and NI are practially living together like they had all the time. Better than civil war in any case.
Anyone who thinks the DUP will buckle fails to understand the depth of sectarianism
So basically the surrender bill 2.0
*shrug*. Not sure how. NI, which voted heavily Remain, gets alignment with the EU. GFA is respected. The rest of the UK leaves on, likely, a Canada style FTA. NI was always primarily the UK's problem, more than Ireland's or the EU's, though all are signatories to the GFA I understand. Acknowledging and dealing with that is not surrender.
Surely the DUP don't want a border at the Irish Sea or at the current NI border, any Brexit scenario would result in either of these therefore there is no way for the DUP to be satisfied with any deal. That's why Johnson screwed them over with the new deal since it doesn't change the numbers in parliament
This, exactly. It's been years of noise and pointing at anything and everything, when since the 2017 election, nothing has been possible due to dependence on the DUP.
You know what would make that all a lot easier? *Unified Ireland*
Just saying.
The dup now have a moral dilemma. Will they choose bigotry or greed?
This deal may very well be illegal since mogg got a law passed 'its unlawful for the government to enter into arrangments under which it create a seperate customs territory in northern Ireland in 2018. That law is still active if that's true he may have already broken the law by negotiating the deal. Hence the deal is illegal and cannot be voted on.
Totally can't see this getting messy
If he gave Scotland the same deal as Northern Ireland, the SNP would back the deal.
So that would mean a hard border between Scotland and England!? Haha
@@spiritd4ys guess we could just start rebuilding that ancient Roman wall .... lol
@@MrXMysteriousX
We already tried that, they just learnt to make ladders. What we could do is make salad compulsory with every meal south of the border, that'll deter them from ever coming.
What I suspect will happen is that the bill will be rejected by parliament tomorrow, the PM will have to ask for an extension due to the Benn Act, and we will continue down this road of uncertainty for another few months until we do it all over again. Either that, or there's a general election and/or a second referendum.
Or, a general election AND months more of uncertainty and inability to get a deal that commands a majority.
EU will state there's no more extensions, but the deal with fail in the Commons and hard brexit will hit by the end of the month
congrats on trending!