'Pretty big recession' baked in by 2023 despite strong GDP data release - Steve Hanke
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 มิ.ย. 2024
- Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University, updates the probability of a recession to above 90%, despite Thursday's preliminary Q3 GDP data release showing that real GDP grew by 2.6%, following two quarters of consecutive decline.
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Follow Steve Hanke on Twitter: @steve_hanke ( / steve_hanke )
Hanke-Cofnas Gold Sentiment Index: www.thegoldsentimentreport.com/
0:00 - Q3 GDP
7:46 - Money supply
12:00 - Quantitative easing
20:00 - Fed pivot?
27:00 - Inflation
31:34 - Housing
36:00 - Gold price sentiment
#GDP #economy #inflation
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Professor Hanke is the best guest you have on. He has an excellent grasp on things and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. I can always rely on his opinion. He 's great!
Thanks,,,Feedback appreciated
let’s talk now💬 Above ⬆️ i will introduce you to something new, Advice& Enlightenment,,
David...you guys are great together. Young vs. old, humor vs. seriousness, and you guys meet in the middle bringing out the best in each other!
You wanna get a hotel room with him?
When I first watched this professor first interview, I was hesitant whether I could watch him again... now I love watching him. He's great. Get him on more, Kitco
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I was completely in the same boat. I appreciate his insight now👍
I know , right ?
I can’t wait for this most educational interview by David , every time the good professor comes on !
He triggers a lot of crypto bulls.
I love listening to Steve, bring him on often :)
Totally doctored GDP due to intentionally underreporting CPI by 50%. Real GDP -5%. And it's been 0 to -2 since 2000 in real terms. That's why everyone feels the financial squeeze and running faster on the hamster wheel.
How do you know?
Figures are manipulated because of the incoming mid term election
The more they spend on Ukraine, the more they "help" gdp lol
Interesting. Have a source for that?
Yes you're right that CPI is seriously under reported and the GDP is doctored. I'm surprised this isn't made more of in analysis.
I just love wathcing Steve Hanke thank you Kitco
Hanke is back🎉
Thank you for this podcast. It's always great content when you have Steve Hanke on. He's terrific!
_This_ guy should be running the Fed.
He should but will never happen..He is not a zionist.
Haha
Yes, at least someone NOT hand picked! FED is privately owned, made to look as if they LEGITIMATELY represents the US GOVERNMENT. Well, doesn't this imply that the US GOVERNMENT is privately owned, too??
One day Thatcher doesn’t receive a tongue bath from mainstream journalists and this guy turns into a knight (full Tony Blair style) defending her honor.
@@zacboyles1396 I think it was more that her policies were mischaracterized then defending her honor. It sounded like he was defending the record. Jmho.
I learnt a lot from this interview. Cheers to the Professor!
One of the best regular guests, and always a very good repore between Mr Hanke & David! 👍
Someone's cooking the books 😳
We’re already in a Recession and it only will get worse in 2023
Spot on!
Yes, this
Agreed …
Q3 GDP disagrees, no more stagflation, just a little waning inflation
Saving cash for the sale
Great conversation and interviewer! David let the Professor flow...
Steve hanke for president!
Professor Hanke, absolute legend.
Another Top Quality guest 😉 A real Insider. Thanks Kitco ...
Thanks,,,Feedback appreciated
let’s talk now💬 Above ⬆️ i will introduce you to something new, Advice& Enlightenment,,
Always great to hear from the Professor!
Freakin love Ol’ Hanke! “It’s the money supply, stupid!”
.., and it's too freakin' high!!!
LOL!!!!!!
@@joeblowe7545 This last rally pretty well proves this out. It's either retail pouring in on a false pivot hope or retirement account banking offloading the cash they've held off all year before the December mandate to buy cash down off their books. You kind of have to take the risk of a pivot to position in for either stance.
Hell, I'm about as bearish as they get and started pushing a small portion of total savings into the last big drop. Will continue bigger % step in's for each drop from here on out. If we push and hold above 41-42 SPY it's a potential melt-up double top into early 2023. This thing can stay irrational much longer than we can stay solvent :)
Anyone trying to 100% time the bottom or top is deluded.
Professor Hanke is 100% right about the "clown show" in UK!
Everything fine in the UK....now an Indian Yuppie-Billionaire is running the country.
I've been waiting for Prof. Hanke....he always tells it straight! No mumbo jumbo BS talking in circles to sell something.
My sentiments exactly !
Dr. Hanke is always a great interview! Thanks for putting this out. Very educational and it's great hearing a guest who always tells it like is!
One of the most insightful interviews of Steve Hanke as well as one of the most funniest
2.6% gdp, while the US largest companies are missing earnings. Interesting. House prices falling. Hmmm. Commodities falling. Got it.
Thanks for getting Hanke back on. I know it requires patience but you're on the right track by giving him the amount of slack you do. He stands head and shoulders above the rest (but just a bit in the case of that guy from Hawaii). Keep on letting him talk.
Love the professor's blunt style! Really a long time expert.
If your inflation is 10%, but you only report it as 8%, you get a 2% GDP boost.
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That's not how it works
@@Japanesevideogamesdotcom it is, you have to remove inflation from your GDP number, or you end up measuring infation as GDP.
Yup- you figured out the big scam.
If gdp growth keeps up with inflation sure. But prices can still inflate while gross domestic production decreases. It's called stagflation. You can read all about it any basic economic book.
I'm a simple man. I see an interview with the Hank, and I watch.
Prof. Hanke is so holesome, it's like sweet old grandad if grandad was much smarter. I like how okward he is, especially with jokes. Sweet! It takes a genius level interviewer like David to make it come over so smoothly. Enjoyed listening :)
David really is a great interviewer
GDP over the last 3 quarters is still about zero and that’s using bogus CPI data.
This gentleman looks like he knows the score! I LOVE smart and thoughtful.
Bailey at the Bank of England is completely out of his depth, great to hear criticism of him. Mainstream media here are completely soft on him.
Truss and Kwarteng went off the WEF script so Bailey was weaponised to destroy them and bring in Sunak to print money, as he did during Covid, and destroy the UK as required by the WEF. Bailey personally was useless at the FCA and is useless now but he has a political purpose for his WEF masters. Its all a pantomime.
Great interview. Thanks David and Dr. Hanke !
Love these days when you talk with professor. He is amazing.
Prof Hanke is one of the most objective academic economists in the US - woefully ignored by the Nobel prize types (eg Bernanke, a prof of mine). Have not seen his prior interviews here, but subscribe to his newsletter. Impressed that he pulled no punches with regard to the BOE duncecap and Fed tinkerbell Powell.
David is superbly knowledgeable and an excellent interlocutor- probably the best on the net.
Would like to see David have Zoltan on the show - but Zoltan’s dance card is pretty full, understandably so.
Awsome content kitco David ur the best dude always ask Awsome questions thanks for this high value info
Great report!!
amazing candid interview. Thank u Prof. Hanke!
Great interview....David and Steve are awesome! Steve can cut Davids hair for free! 🤣
He is spot on/ like listening to him
Thanks,,,Feedback appreciated
let’s talk now💬 Above ⬆️ i will introduce you to something new, Advice& Enlightenment,
Panke doesn't smile. He must not be getting hanke panke...
GDP growth just means they ain’t doing nothing to inflation 🎃
Great interview. Very competent guest, but the professor got apparently very used to lecturing in his career - good job to keep the interview smooth, David.
Prof. Hanke is the best! Always a good interview...
Big fan of Steve, great interview!!
Awesome interview, very honest guest! Thank you
Love this guy! Tells it straight. Couldn't stop laughing at 14:45. I agree with others, this man needs a bigger voice in managing the financial system.
Thank you both
It would be great to see a discussion between Professor Hanke and Jeff Snider, the former who says it is inflation due the increase in M2 and the latter who argues it is not inflation as it is due to supply chain disruptions.
So because of QT, Hanke has revised his projection down to 6% in 2022 & 5% in 2023, instead of 7 & 6 percent respectively?
Yes! Prof. Hanke!
Good questions David
Respect to Dr. Hanke.
Great analysis. Thank you.
My favourite guest on this show!
I LOVE THIS SHOW!!! GENIUS 💎
You 2 are the best!!!
I don't see a link to the sentiment indicator mentioned in the last 2 minutes of the video.
Thanks fellas. Solid.
Always a favorite!
Well said Prof. Hanke about the recent UK prime ministers' economic policy and it's not going to change given that the new prime minister was the Chancellor of the Exchequer just a few months ago. Great interview, David; it's good that you let your interviewees go into detail.
David you need a weekly or monthly segment with Prof. Hanke
Wow this guy does not blink
with that aside great info, thank you.
Hahaha 🤣 you are correct 😂
he doesn't blink because he got some facts I really appreciate his information blessing friend.
My favorite guest!
Does the UK include food and petrol in their cost of living? Because our economists don't include those or our cost of living would be a lot higher! A lot!
Truly love your candidness, I DCAed today again for BTC AMC29 and ETH
Hanke is one of my favorites
Yes, more Hanke
Wow! that was close, I'm sure glad all is good again.
Mr Hankey. Hidee Ho Kyle !
The best guest is back!
Steve Hanke needs to be running the fed immediately! Or at the very least they should be hiring him as a consulting and using his policies and money market ideology! David great interview as always 👌 👍 👏
Great information. Wish you’d asked him about the PM OUTLOOK
Ask and you shall receive! Thanks David! Love the good Professor! It's the money supply stupid!
When are we returning to honest money ?
Again, more brilliant content and pertinent information from the esteemed Professor Hanke. A real wealth of wisdom and understanding of economics and fundamentals with no BS. Thank you Kitco! Get him back again soon!
Professor must have been hungry today with the food metaphors i.e. recession is baked in the cake, the success of the Hanke-Cofnas sentiment indicator is the proof of the pudding is in the eating. Well, Hanke’s understated wisdom is as American as apple pie.
Haha, hanke may of missed breakfast 😃😀😀
I'm DCAing in AMC29 as well. ETH heavier DCA and ALGO. I'm taking your advice and starting Google tomorrow with a 50 dollar purchase and continuing Microsoft and Apple. VTI and VOO on another app and longterm portfolio. Here we go family!
Everyone knows recessions come and go, We are just arriving at the space station , Belt and buckle up , the rocket ship is ready to blast off. The Kerosene and oxygen are just getting primed. this is going to make space x look like a Disney roller coaster
Love you Hanke
Been staking with AMCF6T !
thanks
How’s the Hanke gold sentiment looking ? I’ve been doing gold searches every day … I click so much I have calluses on all my fingers
Steve is great. Don't wait so long, David.
Hankey
Why is inflation not distinguished between demand driven vs supply driven. Big difference.
Everyone still hitting up Vegas and Hawaii. I see people traveling all the time at the terminal.
Howdy Ho, David. I'm a professor now!
Love this guy
FACT - India just placed an order of 40% of all this year’s total mined SILVER , and this morning Egypt is decoupling its fiat currency off of the US DOLLAR , and pegging their currency to GOLD .
Awesome 👍⭐
How Andrew Bailey bagged the job at the Bank Of England is anyone’s guess there were raised eyebrows in the business world when he was given the job, his blunders at the financial conduct authority should have meant Bailey shouldn’t be anywhere near head of the BOE!
Imagine missing the Amazon AMC29 on-going presale, HODL STRONG the public sale about to explode
*It costs more money to create a job than the work itself generates.*
But energy costs relative decline, comes from the fact that US ad min have "released" the "saved assets" in form of the decreasing of the strategical oil reserves. (The SOR)
So are the energy price realy sinking or are the costs just putting forward?
Excellent
rarely have these experts predicted the right way
Wonderful guest. However, it seems like all of the journalists that interview guests like the professor that have similar opinions are not believed. The world of the semi rich don’t want to believe what’s coming and are doomed along with the rest of us. The amazing disbelief of every interviewer to what’s really happening is scary.
I disagree with the title. We had positive Gdp in q3. They can do the same with the Gdp next year. Inflation I think is unlikely to go down though and that is when the markets get shocked.
Interview Luke Gromen, as well as John Paulson, David.
Thanks,,,Feedback appreciated
let’s talk now💬 Above ⬆️ i will introduce you to something new, Advice& Enlightenment,,
Hanke makes a lot of good points. But, he is right about the whole pivot idea. If there isnt an issue Fed won’t pivot. It has to be a bigger than the drops we have been seeing. This is normal to them