i really appreciate how low-key and non-exaggerated/non-hyperactive your channel is. too many youtubers do silly faces and high-volume gesturing that bothers me.....
Misanthropic Musings is not sure if you’ve noticed, btc is no where close to being popular, in fact more than 99% of the population own any crypto. Peter Lynch said it best: buy assets that people think are controversial because those will be undervalued. Use reason not arbitrary opinions. The reason bitcoin is such a high price but very little adoption yet is because of people in the know. You will use crypto in the future whether you like it or not, your only real decision is should you buy them today or 10 years later.
@@swissarmyknight4306 If you have read his books like "One Up on Wall Street" it perfectly describes the investment revolution happening in crypto. Dont even pretend you know what im talking about.
I searched " Arguments against Bitcoin " and your video came up. I have been hearing all the great things about Bitcoin, just wanted to hear the other side too. Great job. Thanks
Unless they are backed by some underlying asset, they hold no intrinsic value. Also, when they have a high market price, the competition to 'mine' new coins (perform the blockchain calculations that encode transactions) means that the required threshold can be computationally high. This results in huge banks of computers sitting in warehouses doing nothing but wasting electricity and increasing global warming without any net social benefit to humanity.
I don't think he needs to, pretty much everything he said is still true. As for other cryptos, there's even less backing them (assets or faith based) than there is for bitcoin.
All the things in this video are still 100 percent true. The only difference is that uninformed speculation about crypto has just got bigger and bigger. People act like it’s one of the safest investments when it is an extremely risking investment
No one is pretending Cryptocurrency is “safe” no investment you make, with very few exceptions is “safe” it’s risky. He was wrong both about the value, utility and future of crypto. He will continue to take this L until the firm he works for turns around and says; “crypto good now.”
This video from 3 years ago is probably more relevant today than when it first came out! If the mania about stock was high enough 3 years ago, where is it now! Great video.
I was under the impression that most reasonable people thought that crypto was a ponzi scheme, but participated because they thought they could walk away with the big $$ if they timed the market properly
Watching this in 2023 and it's very interesting how I've come to those same conclusions on my own as I try to rationalize the causes and concerns of crypto and the NFT bubble. (If anything, recent happenings with FTX brought me to this channel.) Thanks for this; it's great to know that my head's somewhere in the right place.
I’m glad I found this video. I agree with all the points raised, despite holding Bitcoin myself and being a firm believer of it. I think any asset class has its pros and cons, and with Bitcoin those pros and cons are quite extreme, which is why Bitcoin is just a fraction of my portfolio; goes without saying but anyone serious about investing should diversify. A positive side effect of buying BTC has been that it’s taking me down the rabbit hole of the global economy, trades and investments where I’ve learnt about other (safer) assets. Bitcoin is still in its infancy and has a long way to go before stabilising. Although it was born out of the last recession, it has yet to see one through, where the price could honestly go either way.
If BTC succeeds than it's doing what it was designed to do. If BTC fail, then perhaps another better innovation could arise when BTC collapse, e.g. Nash’s Ideal Money, Ijiri’s Triple Entry Ledger or Jedusor’s Mimblewimble.
Today, I took out a 100 dollar bill and thought about it while holding it in my hands. The more you do, the more you realize how utterly insane it is that we exchange our time, efforts, goods and services for printed pieces of paper or, better yet, numbers on a digital bank ledger. We don't take Monopoly money seriously because we know it's a game. Yet these pieces of paper hold tremendous power over our minds because we are convinced they hold value. Once you realize how much less Bitcoin can be manipulated than fiat currencies, the arguments in this video don't seem as strong. Well, beyond the fact that fiat currencies are backed by police, military, threats of violence, imprisonment and death
@@owenbenjaminshapiro6285 The very fact that bitcoin is decentralized makes it risky, because no one is backing up your "money". Even banks have solvency problems, and they control tons of money. But who I can go with if my bitcoin disappeared or gone from $8,600 to $1,000? I can't go anywhere. If it was gold, I could hold it because is something physical with industrial (reduced) applications. But bitcoin does nothing. It has no fundamental value. It isn't regulated or backed up by any serious institution. No one is using it to do transactions (the very idea of doing so is stupid). And there's no physical asset, only a collection of ones and zeros that waste a lot of energy on every transaction.
Thank you for another fascinating video. I love the way you lay out each argument in a clear style, it's so much easier to follow than a lot of the informative channels on TH-cam that are more focused on trying to keep the viewer's attention. Some of your Bitcoin arguments are familiar to me, and some of them are new, but they were all really well presented and interesting. Thanks again!
Something that is “backed” hmmm 🤔. -Is fiat backed? -Most stocks are high-risk and low reward nowadays. -Savings accounts are offering almost nothing, and also in some religions they’re not allowed to have savings accounts, but can stake crypto assets like Cardano and many other tokens/coins that don’t solely serve the purpose of lending. -Governments and corporations can easily influence the price of a stock (GME, AMC, Pfizer, Moderna, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft), while it is somewhat harder with BTC.
Even with the past year's performance I still agree Richard. Fundamentally what is backing BTC? The speculative belief others will see value in it. At the end of the day I'd rather have my money in stocks and real estate which have tangible value. It is scary to me as someone with a background in fintech, that there are 1T USD worth of bitcoin and yet millions of people buying it don't even understand how it works. Sure, some people have become rich but Ill take the boring approach where i'm practically guaranteed to build up my net worth over time.
just getting into stock trading after being a btc holder since this video came out and I came across "the plain bagel" and noticed this vid.. needless to say I wont be taking this young mans advice on investing lol
Fantastic video, probably one of the best, most well argued, and most balanced views I've encountered on TH-cam. The point about bitcoin being a deflationary currency is one that I've always thought was very significant, but have rarely ever heard "experts" bring up.
Thank you, that's very kind! Yea I think I lot of people don't understand how harmful deflation can be; some people think that falling prices = more wealth, whereas in reality there are many costs associated with it and in every instance we've experienced (from my understanding) it's been associated with a ailing economy.
@Dickgirl Nationalist I think the fundamental problem with the anti-deflationary argument is gold. Gold is a deflationary asset. I think this video looks at it like a currency when certain (myself included) think of it as a long term asset. If you look at it like currency, you are totally correct, that is the problem with Bitcoin. If you only think that it will be currency, it is wise not to invest. If you look at it like an asset class (gold, silver, etc.) then it is a wise investment. When you look at most assets you want them to be deflationary, you always want less common stock etc. I think that there is a possibility that Bitcoin goes on the balance sheet of the U.S Federal Reserve.
"Bitcoin and blockchain are separable." Yes. They are separable. However, blockchain tech has existed long before bitcoin's inception. It wasn't widely used because a blockchain is not very efficient as a data structure. It wouldn't be possible to achieve decentralization with blockchain alone. In order to achieve decentralization, there should be an asset with an intrinsic value that can only be obtained through active participation in the network. Bitcoin facilitates this participation through what is known as a consensus mechanism. Anyone with a computer could have initially partaken in this ecosystem to mine bitcoin or to run a full node. A bank or a government could start a blockchain based currency tomorrow but it wouldn't be immutable, censorship resistant, decentralized or even be able to match bitcoin's network strength (currently at 68M TH/s).
Problem might be speculation. And it looks like someone has control over the price. I hold on to my bitcoins because I want them to go up again maybe in 3 or 4 years to make a profit. But I understand digital currency isn't investment. It's just money.
I'm sure you now have a full-time job at a great firm. I really wish you would make more videos and write books for financial dummies like me. Thanks for explaining things so well. Best of luck!
Hey Plain Bagel I was hoping we could get a follow up video on BTC and cryptocurrency in general. There have been a lot of new updates (BAKKT etc) since a year ago
The technology is still young. And as it grows, the younger generations will grow with it. The internet has disrupted every industry, what makes you think finance is safe? There are a few cryptos that can do over 10k TPS, no fees, instant, and green. Nano is an example. IOTA is another. There are also coins that have an increasing supply either at a set inflation rate or variable one. Even decentralized investment institutions running on smart contracts now exist. The future is now, old man.
@@98wongjf the two cryptos I mentioned don't even use blockchain. They're DAG based coins, one using block lattice and the other using tangle. The idea of decentralization is what matters, not blockchain. Maybe stick to your a-tracs and betamax players, old man.
@@---GOD--- My point is, your critique of the video is completely off base to what the video producer is actually saying. And your respond to my post is even more off base than the last. Maybe try improving your comprehension by thinking before reacting, son.
@@DownHillSkateTime yeah from here, today, I crossed off $51K as a possibility. But hey i can be wrong, and Richard does a great job! He's just a victim of his brainwashing training as a tradfi dude; as much as he tries to be unbiased, it is hard to hold it against him
Bitcoin is not just speculation. Someone I do work for but don't want to give my bank info to pays my invoices immediately from across the country the same day I post it. Banks don't give me my money that fast.
1. Value is subjective. Nothing has intrinsic value. If you say value of A is backed by the value of B, then what backs the value of B? If you repeat the deduction process, eventually you will exhaust everything in the world and conclude that nothing has value, which is absurd. 2. Bitcoin is not a token. It cannot be separated from its blockchain. Bitcoin is not like Etheurem.
This holds up very well today. It seems that in hindsight, investing in bitcoin does not hedge against market downturns, in fact bitcoin crashed much harder and much faster than the global stock market.
a lot of missing details in some of the points made 1. No mention of Bitcoin block reward halving (this event has historically lead to dramatic increases in price) 2. The fixed supply is not 21 million because there are tens of millions Bitcoins lost to never be recovered due to destroyed hard drives, lost keys, etc. the ACTUAL fixed supply is probably more in the 10 million - 16 million range
I'm not agree with some point. 1) And what is the intrinsic value of Gold? It's just a metal. The value is only "trust" and scarce. 2) More energy? I don't think so, the all central bank financial system produce more CO2 than bitcoin. All banking server around the world, paper currency minting and replacement, etc.. 3) There are developments to scale the transactions of btc. It's like a second layer of the blockchain. 4) Drugs, illegal stuffs, only exists in crypto space? I see that btc is like a store of value, like gold, not for daily transactions.
3:06 I disagree that they're sepearable. They're technically seperable just like you can take an engine out of a car, but not functionally separable. The protocol definitely needs the token, since you can't have a good consensus algorithm on a public blockchain without a token. And then where else would you store the data in a decentralized way besides on a ledger that the protocol uses? Also yes the CAD and USD can use blockchain, but they can't use Proof of Work or another form of public consensus. I also disagree on most of the other stuff you said, but I might as well make a video of my own with all my disagreements.
Another risk of Bitcoin is tech advances. There have been minor upgrades but could Bitcoin accommodate a major change such as to a non-linear “blockchain” network? If not, it could lose out to a better cryptocurrency. I’m writing this in 2023. Since this video was produced, another advantage of Bitcoin has appeared - protection from “de-banking”, such as was done to the Canadian truckers. I am buying Bitcoin in spite of all of the risks just out of fear of being de-banked if I take a position contrary to my government’s desire.
the "de-banking" aspect you're referring to is largely why bitcoin was created following the 2007/2008 global economic meltdown. some very smart people were tired of being forced to participate in a rigged market so they decided to create an alternative one.
Bitcoin have intrinsic value and its based on minig price which becomes more and more expensive for the same amount of Bitcoin. That is the reason why you can hear sometimes that Bitcoin have deflation insted of inflaton. Logically, if something is more expensive to mine price will rise.
You are one of the best and close to only one who has not gone carried away by financial fads and kept people grounded. I invested a thousand dollars just for fun into crypto and its now 65% down.
Bitcoin is High Risk. I Agree. Bitcoin and Blockchain is separable. I agree. Bitcoin is speculative. I agree. The same with gold, it is speculative. I also agree with your third argument. That's why I hodl bitcoin. Warren Buffett's quote is overused.
Andreas Antonopoulos explained how bitcoin and blockchain are not separable. Without bitcoin, the game theory incentive of blockchain mining is absent.
Do you have a video clip with that argument? I've heard it before but I'd like to look further into it. My initial thought is that, while you can state that blockchain works BEST with a bitcoin system, it doesn't mean they can't be separated (blockchain has been used in the past for trade negotiations, so I don't understand how people can say the two aren't separable...it was invented separate from bitcoin).
@@ThePlainBagel I'm glad you asked. I assumed you were just another disinformation vlogger that wasn't really looking for the truth. Here's one - th-cam.com/video/r2f0HlaRdgo/w-d-xo.html But please watch this too - th-cam.com/video/i9nUMvpT2rM/w-d-xo.html Even after Andreas has changed your mind, I recommend listening to him more. You'll still find more insight and revelation from additional presentations like this one - th-cam.com/video/SMEOKDVXlUo/w-d-xo.html
Great video, fantastic channel and content, but I'd just like to point out one thing that always irks me; The argument over government acceptance and adoption being negatively influenced by criminal or unlawful use of cryptocurrency. It's just dumb, as cash, precious metals, real estate or any other number of other stores of value could be used in criminal activities as a form of payment and transform of wealth. Hell, the arguments for the usefulness of cryptourrency for the average, law-abiding, private citizen far outweigh the potential negatives, which will exist so long as we have some way of quantifying monetary value. The lower fees, shortened delays, anonymity, and security all offset any negatives, which are, again, constant across all measures of monetary value. If anything actually, XBT itself could actually help curb some of these problems, as all transactions are recorded on the public ledger and thus any large, unknown transactions could trip a wire and bring about suspicion, which then could be tracked and kept a close eye on. In the case of cash and other physical assets, you'd never know if half a billion USD were to land in hostile territory half an earth away, or how it may be distributed and used over time. Obviously some of these could be circumnavigated, but it still is better than truly anonymous, physical modes of payment.
The economy must always grow so therefore if a currency can't grow with it's economy it creates stagflation and even deflation which creates even worse problems than standard inflation
I don't hold any CC myself but I really disagree with your argument regarding the gold comparison. Food, water, land, shelter. Everything else is bs that we as a society agreed to pretend has a price. This goes especially for gold. Why would any crypto currency be any different than gold? Because it's not physical? Welcome to the 21st century, times have changed.
I can at least respect the people who are in it and honest about the fact that they are just hoping the price will go up but every argument I’ve heard about it becoming a currency falls apart. Because that argument always goes, there is nothing really backing modern day currencies, so let’s use this thing which is also not backed by anything, you can’t trust governments and institutions and banks that’s why you need bitcoin. Oh they are using bitcoin, so use these guys they are great all of a sudden. Oh you don’t really hold your money, banks and governments hold your money, yet your new kind of money is entirely reliant on whether you have enough battery power on your phone and the electricity grid not going out or the loss of a mobile or Internet signal. I have no problem if people think there is something there and are willing to be honest about the fact that there are still some unanswered questions but all the evangelical types who will hear nothing but good things are just the same type of people who hysterically bought houses in 2005 because anybody who didn’t was a sucker who wasn’t making money and then we all know what happened
As someone that's made ~$45k in BTC and ETH from an initial small investment, these are solid arguing points. Hence why I don't risk money that I'm not willing to lose.
Kudos to you my friend. Your channel is such a breath of fresh air. It always seems like quality content gets the least views and clickbait the most. I wish the TH-cam community would start appreciating channels like this more.
i have some money in gold, silver and bitcoin. And I am speculating that cash, dollars, pounds are losing their intrinsic value, not that BTC, gold and silver will increase. Meanwhile, $$$ printing means everything of intrinsic value is in a huge bubble. And the BTC "myth" or story is that the price will NOT always increase. Those most strongly advocating do claim there will be a peak. And THEN it will become a means of exchange. For now, it is a means of maintaining value
@@DownHillSkateTime like, they keep making the same easily debunked arguments over and over to the point where you could literally play a game of bingo with them
@@DownHillSkateTime cryptodingbats are the SSSniperWolf to my JacksFilms. Except fortunately they haven't found and posted my address to Instagram and laid a trap made from an ice-cream delivery and a phone camera... ...yet
been watching "bitcoin debunking" videos for years now and you're right, its always the same main stream talking points which originate from people who are ignorant on the subject in the first place. its funny tbh
2019 post bubble crashing. Bitcoin apologist still flock to this video. All your arguments are sound and reasonable. Well delivered and well presented. Thank you for the enlightening video.
i appreciate his honesty and study on bitcoin , however one thing people forget about Bitcoin is the supply of this asset is halved every 4 years so it's intrinsic value has to increase in the longer term .Yes , it is a speculative asset and the current price may not reflect its intrinsic value however unlike Xbox whose price falls because of less demand and more supply , for BTC the opposite is true .
Dear Plain Bagel, thank you for this video. Always when I inform myself to create an opinion I will try to find the counterarguments to prove me wrong (like science works). This is why I really enjoyed your video. I am, personally a bitcoin fan. Maybe you have the time to read my arguments too, though I think you are right in many points. 1. Yes, Bitcoin is just the the coin and not the blockchain. In my mind, both have a great future ahead. But lets get to the intrinsic value of bitcoin. 2. Banks don't really have control over the currency. Bitcoin is completely decentrilized. Of course I understand your point in saying that the price is determined by the currency that is used to buy bitcoin. But the reason people like bitcoin, is because you can use it without banks involved. I can send you via an app or the blockchain itself some bitcoin for a task you are willing to do for me. As payment. I do not need the bank to verify the transaction or to block it. 3. Goverment can't control Bitcoin, because it is already out of their control. They also can't force me to not use it, because it is decentrilized. They try/tried that in India and it is not working. People are still into blockchain, despite it is forbidden to use by the government. Also people by Gold without writing their name down, because I know some 'rich' people that think that in the next crisis the Government will come and ask the gold back (already happened in history) to refinance them after a proper crash. Dont't know of course whether it happens, but I know some wealthy people already preparing for it. 4. Bitcoin is NOT anonymous...it is more like Pseudomous: This means that the blockchain is opensource and every transaction ever made and currently make is written down publicly. This is also why the black market is not using bitcoin anymore, because it is not 100% masked. They use currencies like Dash, Monero etc. This is also the reason why TheSilkRoad got taken out. This was only possible because of Bitcoin, because they were able to trace the transactions. 5. I also don't think Bitcoin is a real currency, it is more like Gold to me. I explain why: Currently Bitcoin is not usable for small transactions, because a) the transaction takes too much time (still quicker than a bank tho) and b) the price for doing it is too high (the fee). But there are already solutions that get implemented that will stop that. For example the lightening network. And overlayer structur where basicaly A and B and .... can swap their Bitcoin endlessly and at fixed times the result of the day will be written down in the blockchain. This increases the transactions per second to basically infinity and also the cost of an transaction to almost 0. Also 2020 will be one of the years where instead of new coins, companys found will create sidechains to the bitcoin chain for what ever they want to do. Like smart contracts or decentrilized finance (DeFi) 6. Why bitcoin is, just in my opinion, like Gold and also a safe haven: There is work behind Bitcoin. The mining. Bitcoin is capped to 21M. Bitcoin will go up in a substantial crisis. This, for examble, is something that you can see in the past and currently in Venezuela, Turkey, Argentina etc etc. Just imagine if something rough happens. You gather your haves and burry them in the garden. A thief comes and gets it. Not possible with bitcoin. You just learn the private key and it is safe. You can go from A to B without the risk of someone robbing you (aside torturing ofc). And it is easier to use than gold. I can give you 0.0000001 Bitcoin. But giving you a slice of gold is way harder. So I do think that my generation will use Bitcoin instead of Gold, at least I will....and when I think like that, others (not all of course) will think like that too. I don't understand your argument whether Gold is for a crisis, because every broker, youtuber, financial expert, Warren Buffet, World-Feds are saying that Gold is what you need to have in a crisis....but I never questioned their sayings, so maybe you are right. Idk.. 7. Decentrilized: Bitcoin is unhackable, Noone rules it. Bitcoin has an uptime of close to 100% (more than VISA I think). 8. Intrinsic value: Despite what you say the intrinsic value is rising. You can have a look at the mining activity = rising. The usage of bitcoin in the 'real world' = rising, the usage of things like the lightening network = rising. People that get into crypto/bitcoin = rising. All numbers are positiv and growing, basically in whatever you look at. I think I forgot some things I still have in my head, but these are just my/some thoughts. Of course it is highly speculative, but the main problem is not Bitcoin it is everything that develops around it. Like in the Dot-Com bubble. Every fraud (like onecoin, bitconnect) uses the blockchain to rip people off. Also I have a question you maybe would like to answer in a video (because maybe you read what I say since it is almost an essay): Why do companys care so much about stock prices? They get the money when they bring them on the market. If it drops or raises it does not affect the company directly right? or does it? If it drops, of course whale - investors are unhappy. But as long as they dont have any voting power....why should the company care? Thanks for the video thought ;) =D And please consider watching the youtube video: 10 Million Dollar Bitcoin End Game (OLDER VERSION) from TokenVision . There you can see some pros-cons and also what famous people say about Bitcoin. Regards!
I think you are grossly overestimating the "decentralization advantage" of the bitcoin; in the end, most of the population don't care about that, they want convenience, faster payments, easy to understand and backed by reliable institutions. And even for the niche segment who wants those advantages, there are better cryptocurrencies, therefore bitcoins aren't more than an high-risk trend fueled by speculation, you could profit from it even for some years from now, but it will crash sooner than later.
I suggest you learn more on the relationship between stocks and the fundamental of the company and why market capital is matter for company. It may help you understand more on what is intrinsic value in stocks and why plain bagel guy keep say bitcoin is highly speculative. No offense bro, just give you some tips for better understanding on why stocks and bitcoin are different in term of intrinsic value
On the last argument I agree, bitcoin does behave absolutely like a bubble but there is no other way to adopt it. Every new technology goes through this. Think about it. Also unlike other bubbles that pop and die bitcoin goes in cycles and the overall trend is up and has been for 10 years now. 1% of bitcoin and 99% cash portfolio outperformed the stock market tremendously.
I disagree that every new technology goes through a significant bubble. We had the tech boom of 2000...what else? I don’t believe automobiles went through a significant bubble, and AI hasn’t seen a bubble despite being used pretty seamlessly in many businesses now
@@ThePlainBagel google, facebook, touchscreens, smartphones, wearable tech, smart appliances, every new invention will go through waves of adoption that will look like bubble. Bitcoin is the most liquid tech invention we ever had so the ripples will more than with anything else and the volatility will be greater as well. I am overstepping in your area here, I am a tech guy and you are economics person so I will take your criticism and think on it. I hope you do so with mine.
The thing is, how is the wealth generated?.in normal business, capital and labour ends up adding value to a raw material to create profit. But how does that apply to bitcoin? Nothing is being generated. For every success story there's a hundred other failures.
Nice explaining. One thing I want to correct don't get fooled by the name coin, it is not a currency it is a commodity, like gold, only that it's only digital. Very good value of videos, happy to be your subscriber, all the best!
@@ThePeterDislikeShow Why can't you sell bitcoin in a pinch? I don't understand. All you do is transfer some from your wallet to an exchange and click the sell button. Bitcoin transaction fees are currently 6-18 cents.
I love your articulation of arguments. I really look forward to the day we dont price bitcoin in dollars or fiat as that's blinding many people from the actual purpose of the technology. The speculators get drawn in by the mania and easily miss the core points of the technology.
Not a bad video, but quite superficial. Just to give one example, the intrinsic value comes from the use and size of the network. Use proofs utility and size brings security. You are right when you say that Blockchain can be used by anyone. But, Blockchain is not what gives the network and therefore the "coin" the value. So intrinsic value can be determined by how many want/need to use Bitcoin, the security of the network and the brand value. Try to create the '' Baglecoin'' and see how much it would cost you to get to the size(security) and popularity(brand value) of Bitcoin. That number is intrinsic value. Probably in the trillions. And after that, if you take into consideration that currency, in general, has no intrinsic value you realize that the only thing that matters is demand. And demand depends on many other factors like security, ease of use, the competition etc. The only reason the US and Europe can keep printing money is that there are no other better currencies. But with Bitcoin (or whatever coin is going to be the Google of crypto) this has changed. I expect that there is a reasonable chance other currencies keep losing value against Bitcoin. States can temporarily ban crypto, but that would be like banning the internet. It seems to be working for China so maybe it won't happen. On one thing you are very right and that is that any crypto is a high-risk investment, but so was the internet and this time you can bet on the decentralized core protocol itself.
15:20 "think of the people who bought at 20000$ and where they are today" In profit by a 200% margin. Current price ~60000$, not the all time high though, that was about 69k lol.
Thank you man for your honest and reasonable analysis 👍 many TH-camrs riding the hype wave on bitcoin to gain more view and money and of course causing normal hard working people to lose their money, it's rare to hear the sound of reason at a time like this
This is why I am okay with stable coins. What is valuable from my perspective is the blockchain. I want to be able to store my money outside of a bank if I want to and be able to make transactions without people in the middle taking my information and selling it to the highest bidder.
its 2020, insta pages with tens of thousands of followers are saying that you need to buy bitcoing and if you don't you're stupid, it's like propaganda. Some even say it's better than gold for some reason, it's crazy
Yours is one of the best channel with quality content and a non-aggressive and thoughtful delivery. You deserve so many more subs tbh, keep up the good work, we await your videos eagerly. Cheers from Pakistan.
This fanaticism coincides with the Bitcoin's high rallys. Many were extremely emotional and were very quick to even verbally attack those who expressed a negative opinion about the asset. The same thing happened with Tesla's stocks. All of this became rarer after the beginning of the bear market.
right, but like he said, blockchain is not exclusive to bitcoin. The technology has a future, the asset itself may not. There are already cryptos that have improved on bitcoin, and there will be more improvements to come.
Glad I found this video - having just watched the one you posted this week - the advice still remains the same even with what we know over the last 4 years.
Bitcoin will experience more bubbles. 2017 wasn’t the only bubble. Bitcoin crashed in 2014 and 2011 as well. And imho, it’ll “crash” in 2021. And maybe again in 2026?
Cameron Scott The last bitcoin crash started Dec 17th, 2017. The alts pumped as a result, but then started to crash a good 3-4 weeks after. 2017 was just one example. If you look at bitcoin’s history, on logarithmic scale, the previous crashes were in... 2014 and 2011? So... Roughly four years... or a year after a “block reward Halvening event.” The next Halvening is scheduled for May 2020.
I could be wrong in all this, but all the predictions and reasonings bitcoiners are giving out... its just too good of an opportunity to dismiss. So I’m taking my chances. HODL! and buy the dips!
The crash started around Nov 12, 2021, but I'm pretty sure Bitcoin has entered a period of permanent decline, or perhaps going in circles as hedge funds pump and dump it.
MV = PY. If M (money supply) is a constant, and V (velocity) is slowed because of people hoarding bitcoins, then you will have deflationary pressure. Y (real GDP) x P has to balance with MV, so as the economy grows, price levels have to fall. Since you cannot control V, and you artificially fixed M, your economy will be slowed by your stagnant money supply. This why growing economies have constant but slow inflation. You have to expand the money supply to accommodate more goods and services or you will face deflation. The constricted money supply doesn't allow for growth, so it causes an artificial depression.
"It`s just a code on a computer, that code only has value only because people say it does" Um.... Money is just a paper and only has value because everyone thinks it does
Very interesting hearing from an invester point of view. Like most people in every market just follow the herd and expect the same results as the trend setters, but unless you out perform then you're going to see vastly reduced growth from missing the initial inflation of the market.
i really appreciate how low-key and non-exaggerated/non-hyperactive your channel is. too many youtubers do silly faces and high-volume gesturing that bothers me.....
so true
Yeah me too. Demonstrates a huge amount of authenticity.
Haha, I think I might know who you are talking about! ;)
andrei jikh
Well said
You're providing a service for the less financially educated my dude! Thanks for the breakdown!
@Ronnie Not enough people are saying this. I never believed in these cryptocurrencies, even when they were going skyhigh.
Misanthropic Musings is not sure if you’ve noticed, btc is no where close to being popular, in fact more than 99% of the population own any crypto. Peter Lynch said it best: buy assets that people think are controversial because those will be undervalued. Use reason not arbitrary opinions.
The reason bitcoin is such a high price but very little adoption yet is because of people in the know. You will use crypto in the future whether you like it or not, your only real decision is should you buy them today or 10 years later.
@@missionpupa HAHAHAHAHAHA, crypto bubble goes pop. Peter Lynch said buy "assets" not "digital monopoly money".
@@swissarmyknight4306 If you have read his books like "One Up on Wall Street" it perfectly describes the investment revolution happening in crypto. Dont even pretend you know what im talking about.
@@swissarmyknight4306cope harder retard
I searched " Arguments against Bitcoin " and your video came up. I have been hearing all the great things about Bitcoin, just wanted to hear the other side too. Great job. Thanks
after all the research are you bearish or bullish on Bitcoin?
@@nonamed56 Bullish. Bitcoin will be a great store of value, digital gold.
@@user-mu7xp3uq2e❤ wow
@@user-mu7xp3uq2e this aged well now with BTC above $55K
2-years later and we are back at it again. We never learn.
It’s funny.
th-cam.com/video/XbZ8zDpX2Mg/w-d-xo.html
If you bought a bitcoin the day this video was released, you would've made more than 50 grand...
@@gaylordmcgillicuddy8745 if you won a million dollars playing roulette you would have been a millionaire
@@bjornfollin5056
I'd argue that my option wasn't based on chance, but nice comparison there sugartits :D
Hey, could you revisit this topic? Not just bitcoin, but cryptocurrencies in general.
Unless they are backed by some underlying asset, they hold no intrinsic value. Also, when they have a high market price, the competition to 'mine' new coins (perform the blockchain calculations that encode transactions) means that the required threshold can be computationally high. This results in huge banks of computers sitting in warehouses doing nothing but wasting electricity and increasing global warming without any net social benefit to humanity.
I don't think he needs to, pretty much everything he said is still true. As for other cryptos, there's even less backing them (assets or faith based) than there is for bitcoin.
@@cheng2006 2021 is laughing at you all
@@Oli_Olberius he never said it wasn't going to continue to rise. The commenter is right, what he said is still true.
@@BobfromSydney Not the case with proof of stake (as opposed to proof of work) blockchain
BITCONNEEEEECCCCTTT
last week tonight plain bagel crossover is real
I'm all in
Sums up pretty much bitcoin
Hmmmmm hmmmmm hmmmmmmmmm
watching this in 2019.
Just saying. interesting perspective.
Watch it again today. :)
Lol watch it again today! W E D O W N ⬇️
How much did you lose?
when he recorded it, Bitcoin was at 17K now its at 7.3 K
2020
All the things in this video are still 100 percent true. The only difference is that uninformed speculation about crypto has just got bigger and bigger. People act like it’s one of the safest investments when it is an extremely risking investment
No one is pretending Cryptocurrency is “safe” no investment you make, with very few exceptions is “safe” it’s risky. He was wrong both about the value, utility and future of crypto. He will continue to take this L until the firm he works for turns around and says; “crypto good now.”
@@jamesfield6141 Hows your crypto now? clown
@@jamesfield6141 I hope you held Bitcoin and Luna
@@starmorpheus No Luna. Good buying opportunity for BTC.
This video from 3 years ago is probably more relevant today than when it first came out! If the mania about stock was high enough 3 years ago, where is it now! Great video.
BTC price on 31 Jan 2018 : 9,914.00 USD
BTC price today (Nov 30, 2021): 56,903.70 USD
just for the record.
Hi how's it going
70k BTC now :)
@@chukwumaanthony324great 😅
@@chukwumaanthony324 How about now?
Bitcoin Price on 11 March 2024 : 72,100 USD
Bitcoin Price in Q4 2025 : 120K - 200K USD
Well this aged very very well. Didn't realize this is a 4 yr video. Thanks for all the info.
I was under the impression that most reasonable people thought that crypto was a ponzi scheme, but participated because they thought they could walk away with the big $$ if they timed the market properly
@@hypothalapotamus5293 no, there are large groups of libertarians and anarchocaptialists who choose to keep their net worth in BTC
Watching this in 2023 and it's very interesting how I've come to those same conclusions on my own as I try to rationalize the causes and concerns of crypto and the NFT bubble. (If anything, recent happenings with FTX brought me to this channel.)
Thanks for this; it's great to know that my head's somewhere in the right place.
Even after 3 years, this video is still relevant and informative. Great job !!! You have a new subscriber ;)
L video
@@jamesfield6141 I think its you holding the L
@@swissarmyknight4306 BTC is worth about the all time high that this 4 year olds video claimed it will never reach again. Are you retarded?
@@swissarmyknight4306which L?
I’m glad I found this video. I agree with all the points raised, despite holding Bitcoin myself and being a firm believer of it.
I think any asset class has its pros and cons, and with Bitcoin those pros and cons are quite extreme, which is why Bitcoin is just a fraction of my portfolio; goes without saying but anyone serious about investing should diversify. A positive side effect of buying BTC has been that it’s taking me down the rabbit hole of the global economy, trades and investments where I’ve learnt about other (safer) assets.
Bitcoin is still in its infancy and has a long way to go before stabilising. Although it was born out of the last recession, it has yet to see one through, where the price could honestly go either way.
If BTC succeeds than it's doing what it was designed to do. If BTC fail, then perhaps another better innovation could arise when BTC collapse, e.g. Nash’s Ideal Money, Ijiri’s Triple Entry Ledger or Jedusor’s Mimblewimble.
Tbh, I think that it's better for the price to not fluctuate until BTC really has true usage
So how did it turn out for ya?
@@augustus331 could be up around 100% or down by 35% right now
I hear the tulip is making a comeback! ;)
I got some TulipCoin to sell you
Just exchanged my house for 3 tulips. Best investment ever. Don't miss out on this one
Invest in my Infinity Coin. It's going to be Infinity.
Today, I took out a 100 dollar bill and thought about it while holding it in my hands. The more you do, the more you realize how utterly insane it is that we exchange our time, efforts, goods and services for printed pieces of paper or, better yet, numbers on a digital bank ledger. We don't take Monopoly money seriously because we know it's a game. Yet these pieces of paper hold tremendous power over our minds because we are convinced they hold value.
Once you realize how much less Bitcoin can be manipulated than fiat currencies, the arguments in this video don't seem as strong. Well, beyond the fact that fiat currencies are backed by police, military, threats of violence, imprisonment and death
@@owenbenjaminshapiro6285 The very fact that bitcoin is decentralized makes it risky, because no one is backing up your "money". Even banks have solvency problems, and they control tons of money. But who I can go with if my bitcoin disappeared or gone from $8,600 to $1,000? I can't go anywhere.
If it was gold, I could hold it because is something physical with industrial (reduced) applications. But bitcoin does nothing. It has no fundamental value. It isn't regulated or backed up by any serious institution. No one is using it to do transactions (the very idea of doing so is stupid). And there's no physical asset, only a collection of ones and zeros that waste a lot of energy on every transaction.
Thank you for another fascinating video. I love the way you lay out each argument in a clear style, it's so much easier to follow than a lot of the informative channels on TH-cam that are more focused on trying to keep the viewer's attention.
Some of your Bitcoin arguments are familiar to me, and some of them are new, but they were all really well presented and interesting. Thanks again!
Kevin Street glad you found some value in the video!
Something that is “backed” hmmm 🤔.
-Is fiat backed?
-Most stocks are high-risk and low reward nowadays.
-Savings accounts are offering almost nothing, and also in some religions they’re not allowed to have savings accounts, but can stake crypto assets like Cardano and many other tokens/coins that don’t solely serve the purpose of lending.
-Governments and corporations can easily influence the price of a stock (GME, AMC, Pfizer, Moderna, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft), while it is somewhat harder with BTC.
Nearly 3.5 years later, this video is still applicable and timely. Great analysis!
4.5 years? You from mid 2022?
@@shoqed yes, are you Sarah Connor?
@@shoqed You're right, I don't know what I was thinking. Maybe fat fingered it. Made the change. Thanks
its an analysis from someone who puts their faith in traditional markets, these types of folk never see the value or point in bitcoin
Even with the past year's performance I still agree Richard. Fundamentally what is backing BTC? The speculative belief others will see value in it. At the end of the day I'd rather have my money in stocks and real estate which have tangible value. It is scary to me as someone with a background in fintech, that there are 1T USD worth of bitcoin and yet millions of people buying it don't even understand how it works. Sure, some people have become rich but Ill take the boring approach where i'm practically guaranteed to build up my net worth over time.
What is backing gold?
@@ayham95 You can use it to produce things
@@Dan-ie2ip sure, but that’s definitely not why it’s valuable
@@ayham95 fair point but BTC isn’t a currency that is as widely accepted as Gold. So the trust that’s in gold isn’t in BTC
@@williampeterson3498 I can go more places in the world that I can directly pay for things with bitcoin then I can with gold
What was the price of Bitcoin 6 years ago?
If you bought BTC when this video was released, how much would you have now? 10x?
just getting into stock trading after being a btc holder since this video came out and I came across "the plain bagel" and noticed this vid.. needless to say I wont be taking this young mans advice on investing lol
Fantastic video, probably one of the best, most well argued, and most balanced views I've encountered on TH-cam. The point about bitcoin being a deflationary currency is one that I've always thought was very significant, but have rarely ever heard "experts" bring up.
Thank you, that's very kind! Yea I think I lot of people don't understand how harmful deflation can be; some people think that falling prices = more wealth, whereas in reality there are many costs associated with it and in every instance we've experienced (from my understanding) it's been associated with a ailing economy.
@@ThePlainBagel have you read The Price of Tomorrow by Jeff Booth?
@Dickgirl Nationalist I think the fundamental problem with the anti-deflationary argument is gold. Gold is a deflationary asset. I think this video looks at it like a currency when certain (myself included) think of it as a long term asset. If you look at it like currency, you are totally correct, that is the problem with Bitcoin. If you only think that it will be currency, it is wise not to invest. If you look at it like an asset class (gold, silver, etc.) then it is a wise investment. When you look at most assets you want them to be deflationary, you always want less common stock etc. I think that there is a possibility that Bitcoin goes on the balance sheet of the U.S Federal Reserve.
"Bitcoin and blockchain are separable."
Yes. They are separable. However, blockchain tech has existed long before bitcoin's inception. It wasn't widely used because a blockchain is not very efficient as a data structure.
It wouldn't be possible to achieve decentralization with blockchain alone. In order to achieve decentralization, there should be an asset with an intrinsic value that can only be obtained through active participation in the network.
Bitcoin facilitates this participation through what is known as a consensus mechanism. Anyone with a computer could have initially partaken in this ecosystem to mine bitcoin or to run a full node.
A bank or a government could start a blockchain based currency tomorrow but it wouldn't be immutable, censorship resistant, decentralized or even be able to match bitcoin's network strength (currently at 68M TH/s).
jpmcoin et al would like to have a word with you
Problem might be speculation. And it looks like someone has control over the price. I hold on to my bitcoins because I want them to go up again maybe in 3 or 4 years to make a profit. But I understand digital currency isn't investment. It's just money.
Hey it's been 2 years. Within the last few months now, how has it been?
@@DiamondTurtleGamer I guarantee you he already sold it at a loss
Quickly becoming one of my favorite channels on TH-cam! Keep up the great work man
I'm sure you now have a full-time job at a great firm. I really wish you would make more videos and write books for financial dummies like me. Thanks for explaining things so well. Best of luck!
Do you wish you didnt listen to yourself and bought bitcoin in 2018?
Hey Plain Bagel I was hoping we could get a follow up video on BTC and cryptocurrency in general. There have been a lot of new updates (BAKKT etc) since a year ago
As Ben Graham said, there is nothing more dangerous than speculating and taking it seriously.
The technology is still young. And as it grows, the younger generations will grow with it. The internet has disrupted every industry, what makes you think finance is safe?
There are a few cryptos that can do over 10k TPS, no fees, instant, and green. Nano is an example. IOTA is another.
There are also coins that have an increasing supply either at a set inflation rate or variable one. Even decentralized investment institutions running on smart contracts now exist.
The future is now, old man.
His video is specific on Bitcoin. And he already says there is value in blockchain (which is the technology).
Try again, son.
@@98wongjf the two cryptos I mentioned don't even use blockchain. They're DAG based coins, one using block lattice and the other using tangle. The idea of decentralization is what matters, not blockchain.
Maybe stick to your a-tracs and betamax players, old man.
@@---GOD--- My point is, your critique of the video is completely off base to what the video producer is actually saying. And your respond to my post is even more off base than the last.
Maybe try improving your comprehension by thinking before reacting, son.
Today, BTC is unlikely to trade under $40K ever again
50k was recently tested and the market rather quickly bounced it back up around 60. this video is aging like milk
@@DownHillSkateTime yeah from here, today, I crossed off $51K as a possibility. But hey i can be wrong, and Richard does a great job! He's just a victim of his brainwashing training as a tradfi dude; as much as he tries to be unbiased, it is hard to hold it against him
Bitcoin is not just speculation. Someone I do work for but don't want to give my bank info to pays my invoices immediately from across the country the same day I post it. Banks don't give me my money that fast.
1. Value is subjective. Nothing has intrinsic value. If you say value of A is backed by the value of B, then what backs the value of B? If you repeat the deduction process, eventually you will exhaust everything in the world and conclude that nothing has value, which is absurd.
2. Bitcoin is not a token. It cannot be separated from its blockchain. Bitcoin is not like Etheurem.
"Bitcoin isn't backed by anything"
U.S Dollar: *Looks around nervously.*
@@Fantius1😂😂😂
Gold holders sold it in 2008 to cover their stock losses. Smart money then bought it up and brought it back in 1 year.
The points brought up are still valid despite the price continuing to increase. A follow up video needed?
He made a follow up last year as well.
Can we get an update on this for 2022?
This holds up very well today. It seems that in hindsight, investing in bitcoin does not hedge against market downturns, in fact bitcoin crashed much harder and much faster than the global stock market.
Ponzi bubbles always pop when money becomes more scarce in a downturn. They're the first thing to go.
@@swissarmyknight4306 good thing it wasn't a ponzi and held its value famously
a lot of missing details in some of the points made
1. No mention of Bitcoin block reward halving (this event has historically lead to dramatic increases in price)
2. The fixed supply is not 21 million because there are tens of millions Bitcoins lost to never be recovered due to destroyed hard drives, lost keys, etc. the ACTUAL fixed supply is probably more in the 10 million - 16 million range
July 2022....This message now makes a lot of sense
Do you know what the price of btc was in 2028 😢?
Would be interesting to have an updated version to see if your opinion about Bitcoin changed.
I'm not agree with some point.
1) And what is the intrinsic value of Gold? It's just a metal. The value is only "trust" and scarce.
2) More energy? I don't think so, the all central bank financial system produce more CO2 than bitcoin. All banking server around the world, paper currency minting and replacement, etc..
3) There are developments to scale the transactions of btc. It's like a second layer of the blockchain.
4) Drugs, illegal stuffs, only exists in crypto space?
I see that btc is like a store of value, like gold, not for daily transactions.
3:06 I disagree that they're sepearable. They're technically seperable just like you can take an engine out of a car, but not functionally separable. The protocol definitely needs the token, since you can't have a good consensus algorithm on a public blockchain without a token. And then where else would you store the data in a decentralized way besides on a ledger that the protocol uses?
Also yes the CAD and USD can use blockchain, but they can't use Proof of Work or another form of public consensus.
I also disagree on most of the other stuff you said, but I might as well make a video of my own with all my disagreements.
After almost two years still coherent and up to date, best regards from Germany 👍
Another risk of Bitcoin is tech advances. There have been minor upgrades but could Bitcoin accommodate a major change such as to a non-linear “blockchain” network? If not, it could lose out to a better cryptocurrency.
I’m writing this in 2023. Since this video was produced, another advantage of Bitcoin has appeared - protection from “de-banking”, such as was done to the Canadian truckers.
I am buying Bitcoin in spite of all of the risks just out of fear of being de-banked if I take a position contrary to my government’s desire.
the "de-banking" aspect you're referring to is largely why bitcoin was created following the 2007/2008 global economic meltdown. some very smart people were tired of being forced to participate in a rigged market so they decided to create an alternative one.
Bitcoin have intrinsic value and its based on minig price which becomes more and more expensive for the same amount of Bitcoin. That is the reason why you can hear sometimes that Bitcoin have deflation insted of inflaton. Logically, if something is more expensive to mine price will rise.
@cutscene 1985 I totally agree with you my friend!
4 years on and this clip is as prescient as ever 💯
9k to 70k or 20k last yeahr. Doing bad huh😮
@@Arnachistarchitect Madoff had more impressive gains
@@001sander2 yeah, I'm sure satoshi is sitting in a room counting his gains. Btc is at 70+k now, I'll be back when it's over 250
As of today 4/11/21 I still agree with him.
LMAO.
You are one of the best and close to only one who has not gone carried away by financial fads and kept people grounded. I invested a thousand dollars just for fun into crypto and its now 65% down.
7:18 illegal activities benefit more by using the Dollar than Bitcoin. But good points tho...
Bitcoin is High Risk. I Agree.
Bitcoin and Blockchain is separable. I agree.
Bitcoin is speculative. I agree. The same with gold, it is speculative.
I also agree with your third argument. That's why I hodl bitcoin.
Warren Buffett's quote is overused.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on Bitcoin if they've changed since you made this video :)
Second this!
yesterday, today, tomorrow ........ Bitcoin is Bitcoin is Bitcoin !!!
Just try re-watching this excellent video again .......
none of the underlying factors have changed though.
Just curious what you would say now, 3 years after.
Very educational, even this video was a bit different than other videos I'm used to see from this channel. Thank You!
Andreas Antonopoulos explained how bitcoin and blockchain are not separable. Without bitcoin, the game theory incentive of blockchain mining is absent.
Do you have a video clip with that argument? I've heard it before but I'd like to look further into it. My initial thought is that, while you can state that blockchain works BEST with a bitcoin system, it doesn't mean they can't be separated (blockchain has been used in the past for trade negotiations, so I don't understand how people can say the two aren't separable...it was invented separate from bitcoin).
@@ThePlainBagel I'm glad you asked. I assumed you were just another disinformation vlogger that wasn't really looking for the truth.
Here's one - th-cam.com/video/r2f0HlaRdgo/w-d-xo.html
But please watch this too - th-cam.com/video/i9nUMvpT2rM/w-d-xo.html
Even after Andreas has changed your mind, I recommend listening to him more. You'll still find more insight and revelation from additional presentations like this one - th-cam.com/video/SMEOKDVXlUo/w-d-xo.html
I didn't get a notification that you replied, sorry for the late response. I'll definitely check these out, thanks
Great video, fantastic channel and content, but I'd just like to point out one thing that always irks me; The argument over government acceptance and adoption being negatively influenced by criminal or unlawful use of cryptocurrency. It's just dumb, as cash, precious metals, real estate or any other number of other stores of value could be used in criminal activities as a form of payment and transform of wealth.
Hell, the arguments for the usefulness of cryptourrency for the average, law-abiding, private citizen far outweigh the potential negatives, which will exist so long as we have some way of quantifying monetary value. The lower fees, shortened delays, anonymity, and security all offset any negatives, which are, again, constant across all measures of monetary value.
If anything actually, XBT itself could actually help curb some of these problems, as all transactions are recorded on the public ledger and thus any large, unknown transactions could trip a wire and bring about suspicion, which then could be tracked and kept a close eye on. In the case of cash and other physical assets, you'd never know if half a billion USD were to land in hostile territory half an earth away, or how it may be distributed and used over time. Obviously some of these could be circumnavigated, but it still is better than truly anonymous, physical modes of payment.
Fautismus yup, Bitcoin has only been around for 10 years; what have criminals been using before that?
Just saw this now in 2022. I was wondering if you still feel the same way ?
Bitcoin is fine. What y'all should be worried about is shitcoins. Many of them have poorly audited code, and nascent blockchains.
whether or not it's fine depends on your definition of fine
Bitcoin is finite and therefore flawed
@@Aragon1500 try using a currency that has infinite dollars, maybe something as common as dirt. Who will accept that from you?
The economy must always grow so therefore if a currency can't grow with it's economy it creates stagflation and even deflation which creates even worse problems than standard inflation
I don't hold any CC myself but I really disagree with your argument regarding the gold comparison. Food, water, land, shelter. Everything else is bs that we as a society agreed to pretend has a price. This goes especially for gold. Why would any crypto currency be any different than gold? Because it's not physical? Welcome to the 21st century, times have changed.
I can at least respect the people who are in it and honest about the fact that they are just hoping the price will go up but every argument I’ve heard about it becoming a currency falls apart. Because that argument always goes, there is nothing really backing modern day currencies, so let’s use this thing which is also not backed by anything, you can’t trust governments and institutions and banks that’s why you need bitcoin. Oh they are using bitcoin, so use these guys they are great all of a sudden. Oh you don’t really hold your money, banks and governments hold your money, yet your new kind of money is entirely reliant on whether you have enough battery power on your phone and the electricity grid not going out or the loss of a mobile or Internet signal. I have no problem if people think there is something there and are willing to be honest about the fact that there are still some unanswered questions but all the evangelical types who will hear nothing but good things are just the same type of people who hysterically bought houses in 2005 because anybody who didn’t was a sucker who wasn’t making money and then we all know what happened
As someone that's made ~$45k in BTC and ETH from an initial small investment, these are solid arguing points. Hence why I don't risk money that I'm not willing to lose.
Kudos to you my friend. Your channel is such a breath of fresh air. It always seems like quality content gets the least views and clickbait the most. I wish the TH-cam community would start appreciating channels like this more.
i have some money in gold, silver and bitcoin. And I am speculating that cash, dollars, pounds are losing their intrinsic value, not that BTC, gold and silver will increase. Meanwhile, $$$ printing means everything of intrinsic value is in a huge bubble. And the BTC "myth" or story is that the price will NOT always increase. Those most strongly advocating do claim there will be a peak. And THEN it will become a means of exchange. For now, it is a means of maintaining value
at 4:56 "Bitcoin is not backed by anything..." maybe the next video should be on the "good faith" that backs the US dollar and its value.
Every time I see one of these arguments from a cryptocurrency person I'm reminded that I need to make those bingo cards
@@DewMan001 what do you mean by that?
@@DownHillSkateTime like, they keep making the same easily debunked arguments over and over to the point where you could literally play a game of bingo with them
@@DownHillSkateTime cryptodingbats are the SSSniperWolf to my JacksFilms.
Except fortunately they haven't found and posted my address to Instagram and laid a trap made from an ice-cream delivery and a phone camera...
...yet
been watching "bitcoin debunking" videos for years now and you're right, its always the same main stream talking points which originate from people who are ignorant on the subject in the first place. its funny tbh
Thank you for existing. I agree with every point you made in this video. Thanks to you, I no longer think I'm insane.
He made some good points but he's largely wrong on many of the points. I encourage you to do more research, don't let him decieve you.
2019 post bubble crashing. Bitcoin apologist still flock to this video.
All your arguments are sound and reasonable. Well delivered and well presented.
Thank you for the enlightening video.
what are the pros and cons of the USD?
Well, the dolar and the euro are also not backed by anything
@Andreas Sagen This is even worse. watch fractional reserve banking and tell me this isn't crime at a big level.
i appreciate his honesty and study on bitcoin , however one thing people forget about Bitcoin is the supply of this asset is halved every 4 years so it's intrinsic value has to increase in the longer term .Yes , it is a speculative asset and the current price may not reflect its intrinsic value however unlike Xbox whose price falls because of less demand and more supply , for BTC the opposite is true .
Dear Plain Bagel,
thank you for this video. Always when I inform myself to create an opinion I will try to find the counterarguments to prove me wrong (like science works). This is why I really enjoyed your video. I am, personally a bitcoin fan.
Maybe you have the time to read my arguments too, though I think you are right in many points.
1. Yes, Bitcoin is just the the coin and not the blockchain. In my mind, both have a great future ahead. But lets get to the intrinsic value of bitcoin.
2. Banks don't really have control over the currency. Bitcoin is completely decentrilized. Of course I understand your point in saying that the price is determined by the currency that is used to buy bitcoin. But the reason people like bitcoin, is because you can use it without banks involved. I can send you via an app or the blockchain itself some bitcoin for a task you are willing to do for me. As payment. I do not need the bank to verify the transaction or to block it.
3. Goverment can't control Bitcoin, because it is already out of their control. They also can't force me to not use it, because it is decentrilized. They try/tried that in India and it is not working. People are still into blockchain, despite it is forbidden to use by the government. Also people by Gold without writing their name down, because I know some 'rich' people that think that in the next crisis the Government will come and ask the gold back (already happened in history) to refinance them after a proper crash. Dont't know of course whether it happens, but I know some wealthy people already preparing for it.
4. Bitcoin is NOT anonymous...it is more like Pseudomous: This means that the blockchain is opensource and every transaction ever made and currently make is written down publicly. This is also why the black market is not using bitcoin anymore, because it is not 100% masked. They use currencies like Dash, Monero etc. This is also the reason why TheSilkRoad got taken out. This was only possible because of Bitcoin, because they were able to trace the transactions.
5. I also don't think Bitcoin is a real currency, it is more like Gold to me. I explain why: Currently Bitcoin is not usable for small transactions, because a) the transaction takes too much time (still quicker than a bank tho) and b) the price for doing it is too high (the fee). But there are already solutions that get implemented that will stop that. For example the lightening network. And overlayer structur where basicaly A and B and .... can swap their Bitcoin endlessly and at fixed times the result of the day will be written down in the blockchain. This increases the transactions per second to basically infinity and also the cost of an transaction to almost 0. Also 2020 will be one of the years where instead of new coins, companys found will create sidechains to the bitcoin chain for what ever they want to do. Like smart contracts or decentrilized finance (DeFi)
6. Why bitcoin is, just in my opinion, like Gold and also a safe haven: There is work behind Bitcoin. The mining. Bitcoin is capped to 21M. Bitcoin will go up in a substantial crisis. This, for examble, is something that you can see in the past and currently in Venezuela, Turkey, Argentina etc etc. Just imagine if something rough happens. You gather your haves and burry them in the garden. A thief comes and gets it. Not possible with bitcoin. You just learn the private key and it is safe. You can go from A to B without the risk of someone robbing you (aside torturing ofc). And it is easier to use than gold. I can give you 0.0000001 Bitcoin. But giving you a slice of gold is way harder. So I do think that my generation will use Bitcoin instead of Gold, at least I will....and when I think like that, others (not all of course) will think like that too. I don't understand your argument whether Gold is for a crisis, because every broker, youtuber, financial expert, Warren Buffet, World-Feds are saying that Gold is what you need to have in a crisis....but I never questioned their sayings, so maybe you are right. Idk..
7. Decentrilized: Bitcoin is unhackable, Noone rules it. Bitcoin has an uptime of close to 100% (more than VISA I think).
8. Intrinsic value: Despite what you say the intrinsic value is rising. You can have a look at the mining activity = rising. The usage of bitcoin in the 'real world' = rising, the usage of things like the lightening network = rising. People that get into crypto/bitcoin = rising. All numbers are positiv and growing, basically in whatever you look at.
I think I forgot some things I still have in my head, but these are just my/some thoughts. Of course it is highly speculative, but the main problem is not Bitcoin it is everything that develops around it. Like in the Dot-Com bubble. Every fraud (like onecoin, bitconnect) uses the blockchain to rip people off.
Also I have a question you maybe would like to answer in a video (because maybe you read what I say since it is almost an essay):
Why do companys care so much about stock prices? They get the money when they bring them on the market. If it drops or raises it does not affect the company directly right? or does it?
If it drops, of course whale - investors are unhappy. But as long as they dont have any voting power....why should the company care?
Thanks for the video thought ;) =D
And please consider watching the youtube video: 10 Million Dollar Bitcoin End Game (OLDER VERSION) from TokenVision . There you can see some pros-cons and also what famous people say about Bitcoin.
Regards!
I think you are grossly overestimating the "decentralization advantage" of the bitcoin; in the end, most of the population don't care about that, they want convenience, faster payments, easy to understand and backed by reliable institutions. And even for the niche segment who wants those advantages, there are better cryptocurrencies, therefore bitcoins aren't more than an high-risk trend fueled by speculation, you could profit from it even for some years from now, but it will crash sooner than later.
I suggest you learn more on the relationship between stocks and the fundamental of the company and why market capital is matter for company. It may help you understand more on what is intrinsic value in stocks and why plain bagel guy keep say bitcoin is highly speculative. No offense bro, just give you some tips for better understanding on why stocks and bitcoin are different in term of intrinsic value
@@hhh-ho4zk dude he knows more than u clearly 😂
On the last argument I agree, bitcoin does behave absolutely like a bubble but there is no other way to adopt it. Every new technology goes through this. Think about it. Also unlike other bubbles that pop and die bitcoin goes in cycles and the overall trend is up and has been for 10 years now. 1% of bitcoin and 99% cash portfolio outperformed the stock market tremendously.
I disagree that every new technology goes through a significant bubble. We had the tech boom of 2000...what else? I don’t believe automobiles went through a significant bubble, and AI hasn’t seen a bubble despite being used pretty seamlessly in many businesses now
@@ThePlainBagel google, facebook, touchscreens, smartphones, wearable tech, smart appliances, every new invention will go through waves of adoption that will look like bubble. Bitcoin is the most liquid tech invention we ever had so the ripples will more than with anything else and the volatility will be greater as well. I am overstepping in your area here, I am a tech guy and you are economics person so I will take your criticism and think on it. I hope you do so with mine.
What fiat currency are back by these days still with gold?
None.. since 1972 all world currencies are no longer backed by gold
Now they are backed by the economies of each country.
The thing is, how is the wealth generated?.in normal business, capital and labour ends up adding value to a raw material to create profit. But how does that apply to bitcoin? Nothing is being generated. For every success story there's a hundred other failures.
This guys was able to see through the mist, great video!
Nah.
Watching this video in November of 2022 it's quiet an experience considering all that just happened.
It is fun to be right.
It’s up 250% since he made this video 😂
Nice explaining. One thing I want to correct don't get fooled by the name coin, it is not a currency it is a commodity, like gold, only that it's only digital. Very good value of videos, happy to be your subscriber, all the best!
Bitcoin is not like gold as it only has market value but no intrinsic value. Bitcoin is the means, not the end.
I like how Bitcoin is diverting people from precious metals. I've been stocking up especially on platinum these last few years.
I have been stocking up on silver..
And how has that been going with you compared to bitcoin?
@@teddyruxpin3811 It's stable. I can't use bitcoin in a pinch reliably if I needed to csah some out.
@@ThePeterDislikeShow Why can't you sell bitcoin in a pinch? I don't understand. All you do is transfer some from your wallet to an exchange and click the sell button. Bitcoin transaction fees are currently 6-18 cents.
@@teddyruxpin3811 Might not be the right price. Platinum rarely swings the same kind of percentages.
It’s great to see your video in 2022 after another Bitcoin crash…
I love your articulation of arguments. I really look forward to the day we dont price bitcoin in dollars or fiat as that's blinding many people from the actual purpose of the technology. The speculators get drawn in by the mania and easily miss the core points of the technology.
What are the core points of the tech if you dont mind me asking?
Not a bad video, but quite superficial. Just to give one example, the intrinsic value comes from the use and size of the network. Use proofs utility and size brings security. You are right when you say that Blockchain can be used by anyone. But, Blockchain is not what gives the network and therefore the "coin" the value. So intrinsic value can be determined by how many want/need to use Bitcoin, the security of the network and the brand value. Try to create the '' Baglecoin'' and see how much it would cost you to get to the size(security) and popularity(brand value) of Bitcoin. That number is intrinsic value. Probably in the trillions. And after that, if you take into consideration that currency, in general, has no intrinsic value you realize that the only thing that matters is demand. And demand depends on many other factors like security, ease of use, the competition etc.
The only reason the US and Europe can keep printing money is that there are no other better currencies. But with Bitcoin (or whatever coin is going to be the Google of crypto) this has changed. I expect that there is a reasonable chance other currencies keep losing value against Bitcoin. States can temporarily ban crypto, but that would be like banning the internet. It seems to be working for China so maybe it won't happen. On one thing you are very right and that is that any crypto is a high-risk investment, but so was the internet and this time you can bet on the decentralized core protocol itself.
The person who didn't buy bitcoin because of this video: 😠😠
I don't really have an opinion on Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, but it's nice to see an opinion on the other side of things.
Love your show. Appreciate the balance and attempt at non-bias. Keep it up.
15:20 "think of the people who bought at 20000$ and where they are today"
In profit by a 200% margin. Current price ~60000$, not the all time high though, that was about 69k lol.
Thank you man for your honest and reasonable analysis 👍 many TH-camrs riding the hype wave on bitcoin to gain more view and money and of course causing normal hard working people to lose their money, it's rare to hear the sound of reason at a time like this
This is why I am okay with stable coins. What is valuable from my perspective is the blockchain. I want to be able to store my money outside of a bank if I want to and be able to make transactions without people in the middle taking my information and selling it to the highest bidder.
Everything you said also applies to banks and fiat
Spot on with market value vs extrinsic value. I’ve tried to explain this to many people that ask me for advise on BTC
This content still stands the test of time. Great work!
What’s Bitcoins price now?
Does it though?
When he posted this price of BTC was about 11k now it’s about 40k
@@onetonone562 and how much is it now?
@@jamesfield6141 Idk, you tell, how much is it, clown
its 2020, insta pages with tens of thousands of followers are saying that you need to buy bitcoing and if you don't you're stupid, it's like propaganda. Some even say it's better than gold for some reason, it's crazy
Yours is one of the best channel with quality content and a non-aggressive and thoughtful delivery. You deserve so many more subs tbh, keep up the good work, we await your videos eagerly. Cheers from Pakistan.
This fanaticism coincides with the Bitcoin's high rallys. Many were extremely emotional and were very quick to even verbally attack those who expressed a negative opinion about the asset. The same thing happened with Tesla's stocks. All of this became rarer after the beginning of the bear market.
Yeah, and as we all know, internet after 2001 was not the future of communication, entertainment, global finance... 😅
right, but like he said, blockchain is not exclusive to bitcoin. The technology has a future, the asset itself may not. There are already cryptos that have improved on bitcoin, and there will be more improvements to come.
Would be great to get an updated video on bitcoin
It’s hard finding neutral videos on bitcoin /crypto
After 4 years this aged like fine 🍷🍇🍇
Very fine, and 8x is not healthy for the world and global warming
Yup
Glad I found this video - having just watched the one you posted this week - the advice still remains the same even with what we know over the last 4 years.
Bitcoin will experience more bubbles. 2017 wasn’t the only bubble. Bitcoin crashed in 2014 and 2011 as well.
And imho, it’ll “crash” in 2021.
And maybe again in 2026?
Hold on, it crashed every 3 years? What months did it crash in?
Cameron Scott The last bitcoin crash started Dec 17th, 2017. The alts pumped as a result, but then started to crash a good 3-4 weeks after. 2017 was just one example. If you look at bitcoin’s history, on logarithmic scale, the previous crashes were in... 2014 and 2011? So... Roughly four years... or a year after a “block reward Halvening event.” The next Halvening is scheduled for May 2020.
I could be wrong in all this, but all the predictions and reasonings bitcoiners are giving out... its just too good of an opportunity to dismiss. So I’m taking my chances. HODL! and buy the dips!
The crash started around Nov 12, 2021, but I'm pretty sure Bitcoin has entered a period of permanent decline, or perhaps going in circles as hedge funds pump and dump it.
MV = PY. If M (money supply) is a constant, and V (velocity) is slowed because of people hoarding bitcoins, then you will have deflationary pressure. Y (real GDP) x P has to balance with MV, so as the economy grows, price levels have to fall.
Since you cannot control V, and you artificially fixed M, your economy will be slowed by your stagnant money supply. This why growing economies have constant but slow inflation. You have to expand the money supply to accommodate more goods and services or you will face deflation. The constricted money supply doesn't allow for growth, so it causes an artificial depression.
"It`s just a code on a computer, that code only has value only because people say it does"
Um.... Money is just a paper and only has value because everyone thinks it does
gold, silver, oil, gas, toilet paper, bitcoin, dollars..... two of these things are not like the others.
There a big difference, money is backed up by the issuer commonly governments. It's legal tender.
Anything has value if you think it does lol
@@vk45de54 Id rather trust math and code than governments and central banks ;)
Why am I suddenly thinking about Tesla? Great Statement and Vid 👍
Anyone here in 2023?
Nope
2024😢
yep, ironically came here to learn about investing since I have a lump sum of money from bitcoin.. I think ill get my info elsewhere XP
Very interesting hearing from an invester point of view.
Like most people in every market just follow the herd and expect the same results as the trend setters, but unless you out perform then you're going to see vastly reduced growth from missing the initial inflation of the market.