3 nations-Pakistan/China/Russia, 3 commodities-crude/gas/wheat & a new geostrategic picture amid war
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 17 ต.ค. 2024
- #CutTheClutter
What’s going on next door to India? Three seemingly separate developments add up to something that makes them look not so separate after all. Pakistan buying up Russian oil with yuans, China going on an LNG importing spree, and, even more surprisingly, emerging as the top importer of a product - wheat - that it’s the top producer of. In Ep 1252 of Cut The Clutter, Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta looks at the three developments, and the unconventional maths that appears to tie it all together.
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Not worth it unless it is free
Regular payment is a problem...too many renewals :-(
Shekar gupta sir, those sanctions and price cap has been imposed by few western nations and not United Nations , they have no legal validity, those so called price caps have no meaning when these commodities are traded in yuan, roubles, ruppees etc and one does not make use of Western countries oil tankers or maritime insurance or financial facilities etc those so called price caps cannot be enforced.
@@muralidharanr1597 0⁰0Qqq
Islam is so evil that Maulanas and Imam have to cover up by lying. I am ex muslim and Hadees allows to have sex with anyone whose milk one has not taken. So one can sleep with sister, daughter, aunty, grand daughter, etc. Ibn Asura explains how to have sex with mother by covering her private parts with silk cloth. Evilislamexplains how to have sex with mother by covering her private parts with silk cloth. Evilislam
Not only Pakistan but Argentina, Brazil and most of the south and Latin American countries are paying china in yuan. But even china pays them in yuan when it buys from them. That is basically trying to replace US dollar as means of trade. I don’t think china requested those countries to trade in yuan but those countries decided to trade in yuan as US dollar has been a bit volatile in last 3 years. The value of US dollar has been going up and that will make the deficit bigger for any country each time the value of dollar goes up.
😂😂😂😂
I don't think its difficult to correlate that China is bankrolling the Pakistani economy after they have not been able to get any USD from IMF, WB & the Saudis. So instead of China settling Pakistan's debt with other countries by lending Pakistan USD, they are giving them Yuan. This is a smart move by both China and Pakistan & it's simple economics. nothing nefarious about it.
China will do what with the Pakistani Rupees? What Pakistan can export to China?
India is living and do what it has to do,so what is problem with hatefull revengious Indians,when Thier nieghbour Pakistan has to do to l8ve and survive Why Infia hast to treat Pakistsn as thier Harijan anccesstors In hands of Hatefull Brahmans,that made Harijans to welcome Invaders to accept thier religions,even till British came,to bring justice to Hindu bipolar rival states before British.
If chutiya was a geopolitics commentator it would be vsingh3493
@@ashfaaqmir7869 I think you are a bigger dick by not understanding
@@satyenpatowary6697pak is teg 23rd alrgest economy out of over 200 countries
“An ambassador is an honest gentleman sent to lie abroad for the good of his country." - Sir Henry Wotton
Very good CTC with excellent references. The skepticism that China could have known of the invasion six months before it happened based on its LNG purchase sounds plausible. However as I went through the producer report, it seems China has been buying wheat since 2020-21. It's difficult to imagine the attack on Novakharkhova dam could have been planned that ahead. Even if we assume it was done by the Russians that were many unpredictable factors at play for them like fierce Ukranian resistance & then the counteroffensive.
SG is using a bit too much imagination because he is agitated that Russia called Pak their friend. Thats the real reason he is frothing in his mouth. Sounds childish to me.
Jaydeep: Russia controlled the dam since Feb 2022. In Oct. 2022, they mined the dam. On June 5th they blew it up. It is as cruel and brutal as blowing up Bhakra Nangal Dam being blown up by Pakistan after Pakistan occupies it.
Indian people lack common sense when it comes to Russia. Russia is totally dependent on China now. Last year sanctions were going into effect, so Putin may have looked like a genius as oil prices shot up. Now Russian oil revenue is down sharply. Over the next 10 years, without Western technology, Russia will not be able to find new oil and natural gas, and their natural gas production will decline.
China is a major chip supplier to Russia now. They are the only ones who are ready to supply. Russia simply wil not help in the event of a war with China- which is our #1 threat as documented by Defense ministry since 1990 by George Fernandes! Act according to strategic threats and national interest! Leave your anti imperialism tirade for a potential adjunct professorship at JNU!
The Russians did not account for any Ukrainian resistance at all. Plus since Ukraine is a massive wheat producer Russia would only have to tell China that we will stop Ukrainian wheat exports to hurt them and China would know it needs to stock up since prices will go up.
Pakiatan is master in playing with major players
Everytime Shekarji pronounces Bengaluru correctly I feel very proud for being your audience. We see your struggle and the effort you put in. Thank you.
China's gdp-18trillion
India's gdp-3.7trillion
With almost same population 🤷if this same goes like this our country will be full of poverty, unemployment, corruption our country will be destroyed itself if our country will not change
Finally woken up? Such a huge gap has existed fot over 2 decades now
Question is can u trust any figures that come from the CCP .. there are lot of doubt over the GDP $18 trillion .. lookup TH-cam ..lots of videos with the analysis ..
You read reality out of the big pic 👍
While 3.7 is still expected along with deficit and inflation so 3.7 is also not reak rate
Thanks a lot for your excellent analysis, Sir. I am an engineering student, requesting you to design a course/playlist on the basics of journalism so that we are well-equipped to look at any issue without any bias and may help many students across the country who are journalism enthusiasts or part of their own college journal club.
I respect you my friend, I myself am an engineering(CSE) passout a few years ago, but unless you or your family possess ambani type wealth, I'd recommend you to save that 100 Rs you donated out of excitement and actually save it and try to grow it unless yu feel you have enough wealth that you know you don't have tog go to a job again. Rs 10- 20 donation out of special excitement is understandable, but 100, no my friend. If you already possess considerable amount of wealth, no problem, donate a lakh.
Maybe you should have it as an example of not having too many repetitions...
What college and what branch?
Bhai stick to enginnering you need family connections for journalism otherwise you have to live with pennies
Shekhar Gupta isa guy who is highly biased he said it after 2019 election.
Thanks sir for sharing such valuable & important information ... You are astutely consistent... Kudos
I was sorry to say that the presentation skill was not good. I watched many videos. Mr Gupta tended to be repetitive and deviated from the central message.For example he was explaining what was wheat used for. Whatever he said in 22 minutes that could have been said in 15 minutes.
SG, welcome to Bengaluru, once again an excellent CTC, again an eye opener for our geopolitical and military strategic analysts. This 1+1+1 will determine the geopolitical situation in next 25 years in this region.
What will India do?? Siding with America n west will be a wise move or not??
Good analysis. ThankGod some of the Indian media is unbiased and rational as well.
I am from petroleum industry. Only one point is not digestible ie gas purchase data of China, you shared in your video. If China purchased gas 4-5 times of its average purchased suddenly, where did it store it. Gas is not like steel for which warehouse may not be needed. For keeping liquified gas, special bullets are required, which can’t be built in a day. Some thing wrong some where Sir!
Good point. Probably pure speculation presented as facts. Propaganda
There may be something fishy or big game against someone
Russia, China, and Iran together seems like a reunification of the Mongol empire!
One of the best episode so far - it's rare to look at geostrategy from lens of Shekhar Gupta
A China Pakistan and Russia axis means big problems for India.
On the other hand there are credible reports that Pakistan has sold ammunition of different kinds to Ukraine, of course via US
Pakistan is selling ammunition to europe and usa from last 50 years its not pakistan issue whether they transfer it to any third party
Credible information? What credible?
Pakistani companies selling arms to u.k which further send it to ukraine. So pakistan is not directly involved
@@haseebsab9445cReDiBle = Godi media
@@furqanb7530😂😂😂😂
Thanks, Mr. SG
Insightful discourse
Dad joke award to SG for: one + one + one = yuan
This was a positive video and i would like to add that oil import to pak is in its test phase.. there was no direct trade before that, its was the first ship and more to come soon, you cannot count or compare the numbers now.. also whatever petrolium requirements of pak are it was managing it till now and all petroleum trade was in usd.. its a big relief to the economy if we continue oil and gas purchase without usd.. there is a payment issue for india but it could figure it out through trades with egypt or any other country and payments be managed that way
Nice to have u here in bangalore, shekhar
Probably, Russia is unable to sell LNG and Wheat directly and hence, sells it through China. We should have a look at how much China is selling these two in the coming years.
What about
Hindi - Amreeki
Bhai bhai
Did you notice the closeness between Modi and Biden
It's the other side of the coin
Pakistani - Russi
Bhai bhai
Thoroughly enjoyed this episode as it brought some largely unknown commodity plays to the forefront and connected them nicely.
Brilliant analysis by Shekhar, I'm getting excited to dig in deeper on this subject.
So basically, Pakistan is buying Russian oil refined at Gujarat for $69/barrel.
Russian sells to India at $52/barrel, then India sells the refined oil to UAE and then it is sold to Pakistan at no less than $69 per barrel.
Some Indian trader must have been like, "Pakistan? Price is $69. Special price". lol
They're buying crude oil though just 5% of their requirement which will be refined at Pakistan refineries ltd . which also refines crude oil from the gulf ....the problem is not crude oil or refined oil.. the problem for pak is logistics due to distance and also volume of transactions which they have to do in yuan ....discounted oil has no benefit in the short run as the freight cost and refine cost may increase the price .....BTW in terms of PPP , Pakistan still sells cheaper fuel to its public than India who benefitted the most along with china during the initial stages of Russia ukrain war when Russia sold crude oil at its cheapest price..
Pakistan is buying Russian oil at 49/barrel.
@@Jay.jay07 my friend Russia FOES NOT se to you 25/- barrel get over than as quickly as possible.
@Fabio silva
Well to increase in higher expenses in refining, it depends which mix they run. Pakistan imports heavily from Saudi, UAE which tend to be lighter mix
Reliance is selling. National oil company don't. So private company is getting all the money
140 core people Chinese, 18 core Russian, nearly 15 pakistanies,, nearly one fifth world population together, western world is going to miss that markets
25Crore Pakistanis
14Crore Russians
142Crore Chinese.
Pakistanis' empty stomachs mean nothing to the world if they don't have the money in the pcoket to buy food.Chinese and Russians matter because they have money.
Jhaaandoooo laaaaal gooodi media he dekhty rehnaaa
brilliant analysis. loved it.
I am from Bangalore sir
Everyday I watch print
I respect you lots thank you so much I am kannadiga❤
Same here
Namaskara ❤
@@chandubai namaskara
Aren't Reddys Telugus?
Whenever you look at what China does in terms of an economic move, there is always a sense of sustainable future prospect around it. It is always amazing how they find a work-around for so many threats and challenges.
Sometimes this guy goes overboard in propogating US agenda .... i mean we get it u want India in western camp ....
It is like Russia gives so much advantage to China. Also india should really make infrastructure for enhancing our storage capacity, we lost so much of our food just because we have not enough storage whereas china has enough storage to put so much stock. China can't buy so much stock even if they knew about Russian invasion, if they don't have infrastructure
poor Indian
@@王启-t4c same as US think china is poor at one point of time, but see where it is today. Yes, india is in developing stage but don't underestimate indians. We will also make india developed.
Gupta sahb made a good chapa of the foreign policy magazine while courteously acknowledging their efforts as well
But i fail to recognize what's the Pakistani connection in buying of LNG and wheat at a massive scale by China
very fine analysis, from every expect
One + One + One = Yuan
Fantastic cut the clutter episode
By one of the best journalistic titan .
It is surely a detailed analysis with many open points , what does it mean for India for this 1+1+1 ? Should there be another 1 added to it being neighbor or try to drive things by own ways , diplomacy is not simple , one has to keep all channels open with others , being part of the trio this is best available move for Pakistan
China always, always never misses an opportunity or crisis. in fact, in chinese language, crisis and opportunity are represented by one word. So, no surprise in their behavior.
Secondly, After the Mahabharatha war, when Yudhisthira went to Bhishma for advise on how to rule, Bhishma says, For a ruler, there is NO friend or enemy, it's circumstances, / welfare of kingdom, that determine who is friend and who is enemy. it's just that India sometimes forgets this.
Ok. But ramayana Mahabharata is mythology. .
@@rahul28ish Correct😂😂👍
@@rahul28ish 😂
History dear history.
Because Indian politicians are chootia. They could easily make good with Pakistan right now and take advantage of the crisis, but they don't
Faresightedness+ Strategy+ Luck = China
hue and cries from Indian media continues.......... India bought way more oil from Russia than before the war, India kept buying while exporting the refined products to other countries. India even exported refined oil by products to Pakistan via UAE, but India and Indian media will keep on crying on this stupid news of Pakistan using loaned yuans to buy Russian oil. Folks India can use western markets and make euros and dollars still buy oil from Anti-West Russia but Pakistan should not even use Chinese yuan for Russian oil... No wonder this Hindu mindset of enslaving others is so deep that Grandfather of Jinnah even became Muslim.
I don't think anybody is blaming Pakistan for importing oil from Russia. And moreover I want you to realise that it's just that the channel and it's editor for some reason drools over any news from Pakistan and is obsessed with it, Indians aren't
It's crude oil from Russia being refined in Pakistan
While China was stoking such a massive built-up of LNG and Food grain the Western Intelligence Agencies must have been tracking these marker movements, and could that be the reasons the European nations did not face any extreme situations
And we thought buying discounted oil was only modi's masterstroke 😮
Ayeeeeee
Pakistan did nothing it's Russia trying to influence Pak over Russia
May be you are a dumb fellow
Pakistan did not do any masterstroke, china did the job for Pakistan.
Wow! Aaptards' and dhongressis' blind hatred for Modi so much that they overlook the fact that paxtan has a state policy of copying everything what India does. 🙄🤦🏽♂️
J10C fighter aircraft, MQ9B air defence missile systems similar to Russian S300, 2 Stealth Frigates, Stealth detection radars with 400 kilometres range and much more. All this was given free by CHINA to Pakistan Army. As Pakistan seeks IMF financial aid, it would mean that the West is financing Chinese military buildup in Pakistan
China lends Pakistan close to 1.3B to prop up its reserve so that Pakistan can fulfill IMF condition and get a bailout. It’s given under the condition that Pakistan can use it just to prop up reserve and not use it for anything else. It’s the some money converted into Yuan and use to pay for Russian oil. The first cargo worth 20 million arrived yesterday. This is peanut India got 40B worth of oil. If SG has done some research he would have connected the dots.
Oh stellar observation
I hope this media learns journalism and not collating information from other platforms.
Then you should pay to fund journalism or keep your mouth shut
Interesting take and perspectives on all your videos. Awesome 👏🏼 stuff
Sir, you forgot to mention Imran Khan visted Russia when the Russia Ukraine war began
Excellent coverage.
Yes Sir, very true.
In China camp, Russia, Pakistan and also Saudi Arabia.
Also Iran🥵
India should also join hands with China
Great piece of work!
Very good geo-strategic analysis
Russia is not Chinese colony. You are fooling ordinary Indians. Russia has taken on the collective West. Russia has a 1,000 year a long history of confronting the West even without China. Be it ancient Vikings, Polish-Ukrainian Commonwealth, Sweden, Ottoman Empire, Britain, Napoleonic France, Nazi Germany etc. You have a lopsided view of Russia.
bankrupt mulle chinese habibi
Something I guess we are missing here is the slow trend of decoupling of trade with geopolitics. A practice that US started to control its power after World War II is slowly transitioning into a new order, hopefully to the old Indian tradition of decoupled sovereignty and businesses.
Appreciate the effort SG on going through these oil and gas trade stats, agriculture reports and then to connect these dots with geopolitics, the relationships and the war of russia and ukraine. Top quality content and presentation. 👍🏻👌
I hope Modani is also watching what SG has to say.
Even if China knew about the impending war. Remember Putin also thought war will end in a month. So hoarding didn’t make an sense.
Bangladesh also bought Russian oil with Chinese Yuan.
Shekhar Gupta has really aged. His behaviour now reflects it.
Does caste matters in Hindu caste system in India?
@@RRR-pp2cdcaste is man-made system, so it's invalid in Hinduism. Funny thing is so called low caste itself hates upon another so called low caste😂, ajeeb hai log sab.
@@RRR-pp2cd Not as long as you're from the dumbf xx k caste.
The Beatles reference was bang on!! You are too good at what you do.
He is from my father's generation. That was the time when The Beatles was a very popular music band; something similar to what Ariana Grande/Lady Gaga/David Guetta is today. So it's not surprising that he made that reference in the video.
Very informative and interesting.
Don't often comment, but fantastic piece. Thank you!
Wow, very good analysis by SG as usual.
Too much is being read into the commodity situation especially when financial impact of the hoardings are not covered. Half stories results in inaccurate conclusions.
Pakistan 🇵🇰 with China 🇨🇳 vs. India 🇮🇳 with America, it means India should take action against China. Otherwise, you know America 🇺🇸, I don't need to tell you ,so the next few years are very interesting ,America and modi deal with a few things ,but its long-term things ,but other hand China already completed so many projects in Pakistan,
“Diplomats are sent abroad to lie for their countries” - Shekharji
🙏🙏🙏
Russian Crude Oil, India is negotiating. China has negotiated and Pakistan negotiated that’s coupta ji for you.
Shekharji hearing you for couple of years, coming from a journalist I thought “1 + 1 + 1 =“ is a straight line. 😊
Pakistan got Russian oil. Please tell,your viewers that Russian exported crude oil to India, refined in Gujarat refinery and through USE, reached Pakistan😂
What wrong if a country buys up all the supplies in good or bad time?
Isn't stock trader buys up all the shares in the market before it acquires by another company
It seems like china knows alright about the ongoing war
So in stock market parlance, China did insider trading in gas and wheat.
EXCELLENT ANALYSIS ❤
Indians always forget Pakistan is 7 times smaller than India.
Rains just before harvesting time in China ruined upto 30 million tonnes of wheat. Biggest loss in decades.
P(akistan) +R(ussia) +C(hina) = PRC = 1+1+1 = 1
Thanks for this geo-strategic issue that has been under the radar for so long.
Also India should stop sweeping russian misdirection in galwan region, and openly put a cost for russia's treachery. It has been clear for very long time that Xi has been putin's dad.
Although i like Bania mentality of India making the most out of Russian oil....its only matter of time India needs to face a tough situation.
One should be realistic. India's economy is 1/5 of China..
Russia China and
Russia India
Pakistan is out of the equation
Where can we get these yellow sheets which you use?
Those yellow sheets are for yellow journalism.
Good narrative i think you are happy showing your body language.
Keep this in mind⚠! stop🚫 finding negativity in analysis and always try to get knowledge from every analysis even if it's against your country.
Excellent analysis 👍👍
Very good , even make friendly with neighbor countries,
Pakistan+Russia+China=PRC(People's Republic of China)😂😂😂
Where did Chinese store LNG ? It ensures refrigerated storage t.anka.
Lazy analysis on the gas: what happened in China in 2021-2022? China has severe energy shortage from drought that led to energy shortage and factories shutdown in China. To make up for the shortage, china begin building more coal plants and gas.
If India has really progressed beyond hyphenating itself against Pakistan and expects the world to do the same, then this Russia - Pakistan transactional relations must not bother it at all.
If anything at all, we must be concerned about over-reliance of Russia on China which (I think) is bringing Pakistan into the picture forming a trifecta.
We must look to strengthen our own relations with Russia in any way possible. We should be looking to expand manufacturing in sectors which Russia imports. It will reduce Russia's dependency on China as well as increase trade in Rupee.
All the western alternatives that China has provided (by their homegrown brands) should have been contested by India. (Hopefully, we still can.)
Hahahaha yeah as soon as we start manufacturing low end mobile phones instead of assembling them
Well that is diametrically opposite to the policy of Quad/US strategic alliance..
@@user-rh5jp2sh4s How? It is just trade. On paper Quad is still information exchange, disaster resilience, climate change and supply chain resilience (encourages trade)
And if it is, then we balance both. Our interests cannot be subordinated to anybody. If your interests align.. great. Otherwise thank you for your time.
Well on paper Quad can also be labelled a debating club... But in reality it's an alliance to counter china militarily in the entire region. The US are keen in building it up as a strategic alliance. In the backdrop of this key intelligence sharing, logistic support etc.. agreements have been signed. Btw this makes Russia also uneasy as it sees itself also a Pacific power not just a European power. So the situation as it stands Russian and Chinese co-operation with only increase...
Also US does not share a border with China so they can ratchet up the pressure but also can withdraw pressure. Others don't share this luxury...and the US is very cognisant of this fact...
@@user-rh5jp2sh4s I don't think India and Indians share the same view.
US might have military cooperation in its mind with respect to QUAD but I am not sure if India has signed any deal (inform me if I am wrong ) or signalled any inclination to give QUAD a military dimension.
India has consciously attempted to position QUAD as not a military grouping.
Probably why US has propped up a new QUAD with Philippines in place of India.
Sir, where you'd say a huge rise in US LNG exports post Ukraine war fits in this picture ?
US is not a loser in any way in this war, rather a big profiteer, not limited to just arms but lots of other things that Europe used to get from its next door neighbour.
My guess why China has been buying wheat and LPG in such large numbers is only one - the country fears isolation. It wants to insulate itself from some inevitable outcome. And what would cause them such consternation? I would bet Taiwan. They will invade Taiwan this year or next, face severe sanctions and are bracing themselves for the fallout.
Or India
China is the largest trading partner for more than 60 percentage of the countries. And countries need china than china need other countries.
Sir. 1×1×0=0.... Russia ×china×Pakistan=zero...
Can you make a video on how US is giving a tough time to Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh. There have been multiple sanctions placed on Bangladesh gov't officials and family members.
SG sir... Thank you sir..
Russia never sell crude oil to Pakistan without approval of India ,
You tried all your energy to pull Pakistan in this combo somehow while Pakistan is not a matter for us.
Both Ruseia and US know India is a good friend and reliable partner ..History is on Indias side.. not Pakistan and China
Russia may be playing a game for a couple of reasons: First, a message to India not to sidle up to the U. S. too close, and secondly, China may be putting pressure on its junior partner. In the short run, India might need to just grin and bear. A great lot of the Indian weaponry is Russian.
Fading weaponry with depleted spare parts !!
@@tapemaj And which has time and again proved it is scrap
@@anuragrajasingh corrupt congress politicians force army to buy worthless scrap Russian weapons so that the Gandhi family could line their own pockets
There is no sense in going with Russia, that is the worst strategic move by all means
To strengthen relations I think India should compete with China in sectors which Russia imports. ( with Indian homegrown companies -- independent from western interference and companies)
I find this obsession of Indian companies exporting to EU and USA on priority a bit weird. We neglect other markets which can collectively offer more.
Why India is not producing its oil by Fraking method? The question is this ..when whole world is producing by its own
Moot question is why Russia keeps on accepting INR and at the same time complain about its non use. Russia must have found a way
Probably exchange with gulf countries currencies..unofficial remittances
There needs to be a CTC on Indian Rupees and it's situation
You correct yourself after saying Bangalore to Bengaluru but always say distinctively Bombay for Mumbai.. Any specific reason?
crude oil and crude analysis though ?
Good SG Sir welcome to Bangalore ❤