Historian Reacts - The Only Way Germany Could’ve Won WWII

AlternateHistoryHub: • The Only Way Germany C...
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[@nathanmalik7056]

Offering my thoughts here regarding the video for Cody to read:
1. An armistice between Britain and Germany in 1940 would have involved Italy as the mediator since it was a major power with diplomatic ties to both countries and relatively stable, unlike Spain. Furthermore, Lord Halifax wanted the Italians to serve as mediators in any such armistice, even proposing an approach to Benito Mussolini during the war cabinet crisis. Mussolini himself was willing to do it if His Majesty's Government said yes. Basically, Britain would go to Italy first if they were to seek peace after Dunkirk and it would be a Four-Power diplomatic conference similar to Munich in 1938.
2. The proposed terms described by Cody in the armistice of your scenario would be completely unacceptable to Britain since they are too harsh and interfere with it's independence and territory. Even Halifax was adamant about wanting to preserve both and neither he nor Churchill would go as far as to give away Malta or Gibraltar. Also, Britain's negotiating position is much stronger than France since it's not being actively invaded or at risk of surrender/capitulation.
3. One of Adolf Hitler's foreign policy goals was to secure peace with Britain so that he could conquer and subjugate Eastern Europe after destroying the Soviet Union and Poland. He was also an Anglophile who liked the British Empire and didn't want to see it destroyed, especially in the early years. If anything, he'd be more content with not declaring war with Britain in 1945 since he's got everything he wanted. Plus, there's no African and Middle Eastern campaigns either.
4. Britain making peace with Germany would affect the isolationist movement in America, which was fairly influential and had many well-known proponents in and outside of the government. Isolationism was also directed at not getting the U.S. entangled in a European conflict, especially one that didn't benefit them. Having Britain make peace with Germany in 1940 bolsters such opinions though and neither Germany itself nor Italy want a war with America regardless of FDR's actions. And even if America did get involved in the war, they have no way of participating in the European theatre of the war, with Britain staying relatively neutral. Japan on the other hand...
5. In the armistice, Germany is more likely to get Alsace-Lorraine and Madagascar from France alongside Nice, Savoy, Menton, Corsica, Tunisia, and French Somaliland for Italy. Alsace-Lorraine was considered German territory and it's loss in World War I was highly controversial in Germany with Hitler and the Nazis wanting to take it back. In the case of Madagascar, the Germans were gunning for the colony to serve as a half-ghetto, half-concentration camp sized dumping ground for Europe's Jews under a brutal police administration led by the SS and this was before the Final Solution to the Jewish Question was adopted in 1941 by Reinhard Heydrich and Hermann Goring. The BEF being destroyed and an Anglo-German armistice means that Germany would get not just Alsace-Lorraine but Madagascar as well which means the Madagascar Plan would be fully implemented rather than the Final Solution to the Jewish Question, drastically altering the fate of millions of European Jews who would be gradually killed off through various means.
6. Yugoslavia joining the Axis caused a coup by pro-Western officers in the Royal Yugoslav Air Force and they'd still go with it as well for the same reasons as OTL.

[@BHuang92]

"The only way Germany could've won WWII"
*By not being Germany?*

[@philip0320]

Agree with you on Malta and Gibraltar. But getting past that, I don't see the USSR be 'caught off guard' with an Invasion. The only reason Stalin didn't think Germany would invade is 'cause they didn't imagine Germany opening a second front, but with Britain out, Stalin would see a German invasion coming and prepare a Daugava-Dnieper line.

[@juliantheapostate8295]

The Soviets had their reserves on the Daugava Dnieper line in real life. The reason they held such risky forward positions was because they were planning an invasion as well

[@flyingeagle3898]

yeah I agree with the basic premise that the most plausible way for Germany to win is to change something before the invasion of the soviet union. People often want to focus on the big battles like stalingrad or D-Day but the direction of events were so solid by then that you have to make huge changes by that point. When it is just Germany vs. Britain though much smaller nudges are needed to make a big difference.
something something lesson about being prepared Id much rather talk about with any example that doesn't involve helping hitler

[@batjargaltemujin7179]

I still find it hard to believe that Britain would just accept the conditions of war reps, 1 extremely vital naval port, trade concessions, Suez Canal access, recognition of German conquests, and forced isolation in exchange for 240,000 men. Even if public outcry to bring back those 240,000 men is loud, Britain still holds the thing that won them the 1st world war, its Navy. Why would Britain abandon its 125 year long doctrine they’ve had since Napoleon, to maintain a balance of power in Europe, as you would later acknowledge in the rise of the Kriegsmarine. The logic behind this scenario expects that 240,000 POWs would cause a surrender deal that recognizes the hegemony of Germany in western Europe, the loss of vital naval ports in the Mediterranean, trade concessions, war reps, and Suez Canal access that would undoubtedly rebuild German requirements for oil. Oil, there we have another problem. Did germany have enough oil to run the extra planes they didn’t lose in the battle for Britain ? When operation Barbarossa starts, Germany has to account not only for itself but for all the nations that it occupies, considering the fact Germany needed to import 60% of its oil during peacetime, an increased demand for oil and more planes with pilots that need it, I personally think that Germany would still face the same oil problems it did during Stalingrad. Even then, if the Germans take Leningrad, surely urban, door to door fighting of Stalingrad would continue in Leningrad. If Stalingrad falls, the Germans still need to move into the city of Arkhangelsk (the main goal of army group south), ensuing a similar fight there.

[@juliocooliojones]

I mean germany technically won ww2 then, because the war vs Britain would technically be another war right? Fighting everywhere else is done and Japan vs USA is just a 1v1 for the most part...

[@addickland5656]

I can buy Britain being panicked into a "white peace", but if the war in the west ends in 1940 then Barbarossa per definition just isn't a "surprise attack", because Stalin would spend every waking moment after such a peace panicking about exactly that invasion, rather than talk himself into believing Hitler wouldn't attack Russia while Britain still defied him like in OTL.
Now does not having lost all those planes and tanks to the battle of Britain and Rommel's Africa corps still make it such a massive succes due to the red army's weakness in '41? Maybe, but I don't buy that Britain stands by and lets Germany conquer all of Russia once their troops have been returned home, and with Japan still bringing in the US (there's simply no universe where they don't given their strategic situation), any "Germany wins WW2" scenario in the end still ends up crashing into America's war machine and nuclear program, which under FDR is GOING to be launched against them first. Even if Russia has been pushed back to the AA-line or even the urals (it's not like the soviets are just gonna stop fightning - either convenctionally or guerilla - no matter how far Germany pushes), with allied air power being as overwhelming as it is I just don't see how Germany doesn't get nuked into oblivion if they're still standing, no matter what you do to the british in 1940 or to the soviets in 41-42.

[@batjargaltemujin7179]

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