The #1 Strategy You MUST Master to Win At Poker Tournaments
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I honestly love the way JL explains poker. This is my second time watching this and it makes so much sense.
I'm glad you like it!
Great video. I often lack the guts to do this, but will try more now. As someone said fold equity backed up by raw equity. Will try next time around 20BB
The first scenario is perfect 10/9 suited is a winning hand. Like a suited Ace is definitely a shove in the big blind
Watched this video 3 hrs before a small stakes bar league poker night that I frequent to try new things out. When I got down to around 15-20 big blinds I was shoving fairly wide and often from later positions.
Of course one or two flips went my way but in the end this was working like a charm. Ended up getting 1st out of 29.
Thank you!
This comment was more helpful than the video
Good plan, I usually wait until I am down to 10 big blinds
2nd time watching this it becomes much more clear thank ALOT coach.
Don't be turned off by the math, don't be turned off by the math...
Don't be turned off by the math!
@@PokerCoaching makes for a great T-shirt Jonathan
@@PokerCoaching Dont be turned off by the math!
Don't be turned on by the math
The odds of both opponents folding is 43% (67%x64%) and the odds of both of them calling is a fraction of 12% (33% x 36%). It’s a fraction because within that 12% are two additional possibilities. The first opponent could re-shove instead of call and change the second opponent’s decision from calling to folding. Or the first opponent could call and the second opponent could back-shove and get the first opponent to fold adding additional dead money to the pot and changing the overall profitability of your original shove.
TLDR: You should probably redo this video using a single opponent as an example =)
Thank you! was thinking on this
Just what I need before Pokerstars EPT $5 satellite.
I hope you win your seat!
I love math, I understood it just listening to teacher without opening math book. so please turn me on with math connected content :D :D
Thanks, Jonathan. Good video!
It's hard to recognize a players range, when you're going from table to table, when other players are eliminated...
In cash games, you can know your player..In tournaments not so much...
This calculation seems overly complicated. If we assume player two folds then jamming gains 7 BBs or loses about 5.5 BBs when called (30% of 48 BBs = 14.4 BBs). Therefore it's going to be profitable when player one folds 50% or more of the time. However, this isn't 2005 any more and there is a significant risk that the button has called with a strong hand anticipating your shove.
That is true in some games. That said, see my assumptions. I do not think they are too far off.
Wow so thats whut a player was doing in the big 16.50 on pokerstars. When she kept shoving on me almost every time I raised I came third she came second.Granted this was my first tournament in 8 years.I filmed it with my cell phone lol.Thanks now I can use this in my game.:)
I have been seeing more players doing this in the last few weeks, even in $0.25 sng's on Global. Have been trying to formulate an effective counter beyond evaluating my reads and tightening my calling range. Any tips/pointers on a counter to this tactic? Anybody?
I think you answered your own question. Tightening up will save you enough in the long run to make your eventual all in call profitable.
@2:20 There should really be 4 outcomes { all fold, P1 calls and P2 folds, P1 folds and P2 calls, P1 AND P2 both call }... and although the probability of both calling would ( likely ) be smallest, and your % chance to win the pot the smallest... you will be tripling up ( plus dead money ). Probably leaving out the case of both calling does not affect the calculation too much, but....
OK, I guess you mention that later... but as I think of it...next to act player will tend to trim his calling or raising range based on a player with action behind him... and the last player to act's action will depend on his range and the action of the player before him,,, and actually that player ( last to act ) could add more dead money to the pot by raising and getting the other player to fold ( possibly but not necessarily a reshove )... so this thing would turn into a kind of complicated probability tree with many possible actions by each player
Can you run these numbers if the stacks were flipped? You're at 75BB and preflop raise and caller are around 20BB, raise made was only 2x - you're exerting pressure on them to risk their tournament life for sure, but what do the numbers say?
the numbers are based on effective stacks, so the math is the same, now if you have 75bb inital raiser has 40bb, and the caller has 20bb, the math changes a lot, as you are no longer jamming for 20bb effective, but 40bb against the initial raiser. So as long as both players have a similar stack of around 20bb and you have 75, or vice versa the math works out. now if you ahve 20bb and they both have 75bb, they have to worry about fighting each other for 75bb, so they will probably play tighter.
Well anything less than 15 bigs is above or fold no?
It depends on the situation.
So far what I have found is that whenever I go all in, someone (even those who otherwise fold often) will randomly call with some garbage and then get lucky and kick me out of the tournament :) don't know how I feel about this strategy...
Maybe you aren't giving off the tight image you believe you are while leading to the jams.
The problem is with this is that in a tournament when short stacked against two guys its only profitable if you win. The math is you lose 60+% of the time and it only takes one loss like this to be sitting out of the rest of the tournament. This is ok for a cash game but I don't see much value in a tournament. I may be wrong.
Bump. This was my thought. Any other input?
The point is chipping up, it’s ev+ to do this, you accumulate in order to cover other stacks. Busting is a part of poker, just play the most profitable way and results will come
This video is it, so perfectly explained. Heading into a Day 2 today LFG
how did you do? do you remember?
Unpopular opinion, I like maths 🤷♂️
I put an at, as to how to play Poker.
Great video, Jon! I just have a question about the caller's range you've assumed to fill in your equation. In the video, at 4:46, if you, as the BB, go all in you're assuming that the caller would not call with AA or KK since they're whited out in your caller's range. I'm not sure if i've read this scenario wrong but if a small stack goes all in for 1/3 of your stack, whether the initial raiser calls or folds i would highly assume that he would call with AA. Would love some clarification, love your videos and the strategy though, very powerful!
He assumes that they 3 bet that hand 100% of the time. ( can flat once in a blue moon but most likely a 3 bet ) never fold AA preflop lol never!
What’s a 3 bet lol
@@kak4shi_hatak3 3bet = reraise. The logic I believe comes from fixed limit games, where a first raiser would put two bets in (the big blind + the raise), the reraise now is three bets. Makes sense?
I remember I did this with pocket 8s and got both calls. Well both players had ace queen offsuit. Took em both out.
Very powerful strategy and the more callers you have after the IR, the more incentivized you are to jam. Its just so hard for anyone after the IR to have a hand that can call the shove. I'm always looking for places to attack dead money, with or without a "real hand". Sometimes I get looked up and look like a fool but that's life. Fold equity is the critical component and raw equity is the backup.
Do not implement this strategy in Texas!! The smaller stakes tournaments here will still call off very wide regardless of what you have. I recently played a $30 tournament here, was card dead for about 2 hrs got down to 20bb. I woke up with A10o in the bb. Prior to this I intended on jamming my bb with any 2 cards implementing this exact strategy. Even after being called out about how tight I was playing. Anyways, UTG limped, co open 2.5 bb, folds to me I jam my 20bb stack. UTG folds ( later told me he had 55) co calls with K9o 😒 he hits I miss! I initially targeted this opponent because he opens to wide from late position. Unfortunately this play didn't work in my favor. To make a long story short, be weary of where u play. Some people still call with any 2 cards.
This
I was in a hand and was calculating the math on paper I timed out and my hand got folded.
It is all about the player range , a super tighter player raises , you will be stupid to shove or even call. Just fold.
Love the math, thank you. The difficult position I find myself in is my defense frequency being the first raiser. I know I've seen some videos from you on that side of the house. How do you approach your calls when you're the initial raiser, or the button raiser?
When do you even have time to calculate all of this during an online game? This is so confusing lol
Practice until it becomes second nature.
Nearly won my first time trying this strategy ibb.co/ySCtDKX . Got a bit carried away after this ran JJ into AQ should have shoved my bad and then AK into AA and then A5 suited into two AK and nearly got there O well , SO how should you play the biggest of big stacks Subed
Why didn't you take the 4th scenario of both opponents calling into consideration in the T9s hand?
I didn't understand how to do this math quickly at the table
Practice a LOT away from the table.
You just need to know the concept,attack mainly against late opens + a call.Use hands that have decent all in equity.Use the lower end of those hands v players that fold a lot v jams,use the better end v light callers
i make music but this is how i make money now, thanks
Best teacher ever that is helping me to actually build a career over long run. Thankyou janathan
I just opened account whit u guys weres free trial? and how can u improve my game if I was to pay on monthly basis!!
Email support@pokercoaching.com if you cannot figure out how to navigate the site.
@@PokerCoaching yes I will thank u im all ways going far in tournaments but I think there's something missing in my game or I'm very unlucky 🤔
I understand this concept however, if you’re constantly making this play in a tournament all it takes is for our opponent to wake up with it just once and then we’re just out of the tournament...wouldn’t this be pretty risky assuming we have a huge post flop edge against our opponents
It is "risky", but no more risky than playing like a nit, hoping to get good cards, and hoping your opponents are oblivious enough to pay you off.
@@PokerCoaching I think this also speaks to being appropriately rolled for the stakes you're playing. While it's risky, if you're appropriately rolled, you can handle the times you get looked up. That's just my intuitive take on this, first-level thought reaction.
Just stating the obvious: you are not automatically out just because your opponent wakes up with aces for example, of course it is really bad if you have something like A9o, but even 23o has more than 16% equity against aces...
as long as the pros outweigh the cons, its good.
Hey Jonathan, thanks for the video. Sorry if I missed it but at how many BB do you consider your stack to be "short"? Thanks
It depends on the specific situation.
Great video Jonathan.
What is the cutoff in terms of number of big blinds in your stack do you jam here? for example, if you had 40 big blinds it would be too much to jam with.
So when playing Jon I would tighten my range and call off his shoves,I am printing money haha.
:)
109s is only “slightly behind” to JJ-AA? I’m confused lol…………
its not always JJ+, could be 88/77 or AJ+, KQs. not to be that guy but its T9s, just more readable, and takes up 2 characters like everything else in the chart.
Too what extent do factors such as closeness to cashing and ICM have in this spot? From what I recently learned, it seems there's ICM pressure on the initial raiser bc they have a big stack behind. Would this be another reason to shove?
@Jonathan , win% (when both players fold) = .67 (1-.33) X .64 (1-.36) = 43%, and is not 33% as shown in the example@5:25
I am bad at math on the fly. :(
Alternatively we assumed the 2nd player doesn't call if the 1st player calls, so 1st player calls = 33%, second player only calls 35% when 1st player folds, which = .67 × 35% = 23.45%
Therefore we win preflop 1 - .33 - .2345 = 43%
@@ljcapsicum I think there's more than a 43% chance of both opponents folding. Surely we're saying that the second opponent will only call 35% of the time if first players folds (assuming there's no scenario where both call). Therefore we're treating both decisions as isolated actions so they shouldn't be combined to calculate our chances of picking up the pot pre flop. Jonathan has added both percentages together (35% + 33%) and subtracted from 100% to get the chance of both folding (32%, which I don;t think can be right.
.... so I think there's 65% chance of both folding.
I have decided not to play Poker anymore, Bacara has the best odds for the players to win, good by poker!
Your right bacarat has better odds when compared to other casino games. But comparing bacarat to poker is pretty stupid. In poker your odds change all the time. In bacarat they dont. Sometimes in poker you could be 80% to win or 20% to win. Its up to you to figure that out. But comparing bacarat to poker is a bad comparison.
So basically looking for good spots to squeeze. Got it. Thanks!
This doesn’t address if guy is tilted on a run tired or just doesn’t believe you are does believe you. Maybe he folds to everyone but you
I mean... if you are jamming wide... most people won't think your a nit lol.
Is this guy Andrew Tate's distant cousin or smth? He sounds just like Tristan Tate 😂
What is an Andrew Tate?
@@PokerCoaching A very viral and controversial man on the internet night now
Pretty cool video. I’ll keep it in mind tomorrow ✅
Thanks, Nick!
Great video. Is the HUD you use on America's Card Room Holdem manager?
Great job Jonathan!
Thank you Mr Johnathan L
Thanks!
A very knowledgeable Poker Player told me that a lot poker sites use Bots in their poker program and it almost impossible to beat these bots players is it true and if so I don't want play but with funny money, I was disappointed to hear that.
Lesson one: never trust anything that comes from the magic box. Your welcome.
I've heard you say "fifth-grade math" but never this. I love it. Been playing this way all along. Great video.
I love playing poker, I am mathematically challenged. Lol
I do understand the questions, but I can't even do math on a calculator...😬
Bluff squeezing is a strategy against players who raise too loose, so since the MP raiser in this hand is labeled as a TAG, you should avoid doing it here and only do it against LAGs, right?
Generally yes. That is why I just called in the hand in question.
I like the math. However.. do the ranges vary with position? Depending on how much they have behind whether in the Hero or Villain when protecting blinds, button, straddles or in late position.
Ranges always vary based on stack and position.
Jeez, this is so complicated. Is there no simpler way to play the game successfully?
Yeah but then your opponent thinks your stealing and starts calling much wider to mess you up.
thats why you dont do it all the time
MathS!!!!!!
This is the perfect poker lesson. Teach the math and then show how to apply the principles. I learned a lot, thank you!
Are we on the bubble is he desperate etc ect
wonderful Jonathon
Is there a possibility that Player 1 and Player 2 both call?
yes, if player 2 has more traps in their range like just flat calling AA/KK they will call more often, but as JL explained, since they are 75bb deep, player 2 is more likely to 3bet.
I need lots of help.
Excellent video
Thanks
Great content.
I'm not done watching, but before I forget, thank you so much! Love your content and I'm trying to be a better poker player :)
You're welcome!
This video is the nuts. Great information and explained well. Thank you, JL!
Glad you liked it!
I’ve failed maths so many times I can’t even count 😅