Another great video! Those videos showing MPs discussing HS2 makes me angry to see how bureaucratic and bogged down by meetings for meetings, no wonder everything costs a fortune and we get almost nothing done!
Ultimately, it doesn't matter how much mega-projects cost because they all cost the same: a hell of a lot, and always much more than you might think. The real question is, will this benefit the country more than not doing it? Once that decision is taken, stick to it and, if the decision is to do it, keep doing it. The biggest waste of money is to constantly backtrack, chop and change and, most of all, spending but then cancelling. I can totally understand why people can't agree how to calculate the costs of massive, one-off projects, because there are a myriad variables.
You are right re cut and cover tunnels being wasteful. Near Coventry, the hs2 route follows a disused railway line which was in a cutting and in recent years has been a greenway. Instead of just using the existing cutting they are building a huge cut and cover tunnel in the existing railway cutting !
As I’m sure the Green Signals team will have heard, Mick Lynch has announced his retirement as General Secretary of the RMT, so I’m guessing this may be part of why he doesn’t want to appear on the show. Nice to see you recovering Nigel, Stef did a fantastic job.
Good riddance to Lynch after all the trouble him and his union have caused passengers in Northern England, but knowing the RMT they will elect another left wing nutcase to carry on causing trouble
Ringo Starr was succeeded by the late, great Michael Angelis as the voice of Thomas & Friends for over twenty years. R.I.P. Britt Allcroft, our railways just wouldn't have been the same without you.
Nigel, good to see you back in your chair. Steph is a brilliant sub, so I guess you have guided her well. HS 2. Wasn't it a project to level things up between the cities of the north and the South. With a lot of the current infrastructure approaching 200 years old, railways are in need of support and repair before we start to see more failure of the network. Causing more uncertainty for the travelling public. Gents, you already probably know that to fill a driver vacancy. Rail companies need to identify the action to get from an identified job vacancy to filling it, which can take up to 24 months.
Thanks Chris. Stef did a truly excellent job as she always does in whatever she tackles. You'll defo see a lot more of here in the future - we have some big plans!
Great point picking from these committees, just waiting for new Bradford Station to be dropped again just as city of culture starts! Long term planning still a lottery. Good to see Nigel back in action.
I did see that the Daily Telegraph had said that one union , possibly Aslef? Had told it's Avanti West Coast drivers not to walk on the snow to their cabs, if correct, not very traditional railways must do the best to provide a service. Apparently, a number of services were cancelled. It's similar to not going up Shap the other week when freights and a charter did. I didn't know what they are currently striking for, so thanks for relaying the information. Good show.
Given the number of cost estimations that have been undertaken over the 12 years, surely any debate on the methodology now is a nonsense. It’s not like Quantity Surveying is a new process.
So one month the PM and Chancellor turn up in person to celebrate open access investment, then the next month the Transport Secretary sticks the knife in. Joined up thinking?
There was a joke many years ago, about 3 trains in a station side by side. A Central train, a First train, and a One train. Customer asks which one goes first?’ The reply ‘the central one goes first.’
Thank you once again for another cracking GS episode. Thoroughly enjoyable as always! We will have to get the Green Signals crew up to Prestongrange at some point this year for a long overdue visit.
@nigelharris6873 The invitation is there anytime you are all passing our way. I'll get on with tidying up the trackside from the ever encroaching vegetation!
I live on the route of HS2 surrounded by construction sites. Many locals rarely, if ever, use trains and have little interest. Its certainly very difficult defending the project with costs rocketing, constant changes in the vision and the scale of destruction evident. As a lover of railways do I feel confident in defending the whole thing. Im afraid the answer has to be "No" Not any more. Keep up the great work gents
Many mancunian rail topics, the UK microcosm of the macrocosm. Important topics as always on your quality weekly show. I am always looking forward to your fascinating show and HS2, EWR, TRU, northern leveling-up; and the NPR. Now we are all with the rail-human condition. Thank you. BTW I believe they *_do_* have all the good estimates and the actual finance and schedule estimates probably just don't "work out" in the budgets going forward. Yes, it is batty. They just don't want to air their "laundry"...because it will probably stop many rail onging and future efforts. Here we are.
Let's not get too downhearted, chaps (and Steff): As you say, the continuing work on the ground to make HS2 a reality is just breathtaking, and the transformation of the railway in South Wales is nothing short of miraculous (a train every 20mins from Merthyr Tydfil to Cardiff? That didn't happen even in the heyday of the GWR!). Also, East/West Rail is still ploughing ahead, as is the Transpenine upgrade. There's encouraging news in Scotland, too. Of course, the cancellation of the rest of HS2 without a credible Plan B is extremely bad news, but as can be seen by the "we can't tell you how much the current bit will cost" statement at the recent PAC meeting, there is still a great deal of work to be done to move away from what I view as a "cost-plus" mentlatity that used to be common in the defence industry. No government should - nor could - carry on like that. It's up to the highly paid execs responsible for the project to get a grip. And if they can't, then replace them with people who can.
@@stephendavies6949 It's only 2 at the moment (4 half-hourly services: Merthyr - Cardiff Queen St - Cardiff Central - Aberdare, Treherbert - Cardiff Central, Pontypridd - Bay and Queen St - Bay) but will be 4tph to each head of valley terminus from Cardiff, and 6tph to the Bay (2 from each head) when works are complete.
18:50 My friend is a project leader on a 5 mile section in the Banbury area, and he's said that the timescale for completion of phase 1 is 2028. Fresh faced on site his work programme was supposed to last for 2 months. There was a three week delay! He was not a happy bunny. He didn't mention what the problem was but the work that his team needed to do couldn't be done because of delay. Now this is a guy who's deadly serious about his work, moving fast and efficiently - almost military. He's not from Britain so he's getting used to the way things work here. Including delays.
A friend of mine is working on it - or sitting around waiting to work! They keep getting told they can’t work due to the weather which would be fine if it was coming from people experienced in what they are doing. However it’s not. It’s coming from managers etc with no experience. There are steps that could be taken to enable them to work in the weather which would be a lot cheaper than the cost of the team doing nothing. Maybe they need to ask the guys on the ground how to save money!
Really interesting and clear summary . In the case of hs2, I think the contractor firms have got one over the civil servants. As a matter of interest which 40 is that flame cut from?
The problem starts with the lack of an effective means of estimating the value of infrastructure, and following from that is an equitable way of paying for it. The end result of infrastructure investment and operation is to enhance and sustain land values. There has been little study of this apart from a survey for Transport for London following the completion of the Jubilee Line Extension. This showed an aggregate land value uplift of 3.5 times the construction cost. It follows from this that an equitable means of finance would be through land value tax instead of the present taxes. It is significant that land values in the depressed northern regions are the lowest in the country. Whether high speed rail is better value than local transport investment seems to remain unknown. If it is any consolation, the Västlänk project in Gothenburg, Sweden, has hit precisely the same troubles.
You're describing the highest level of creating accounting! You need to resort to such alchemy because using the financial analysis techniques that mere mortals in the business world have to use, HS2 is a complete white elephant that fails any conventional economic test!
@@physiocrat7143 i can see Peel Holdings really liking to pay Land Value uplift tax on their massive amount of holdings of land Liverpool/Manchester area
@highpath4776 Land value uplift tax is a dumb idea. Assess the business rates on site values only and the uplift is automatically picked up when the time for revaluation comes round. Simples.
Thanks for another great, informative episode! Your spotlight on the PAC session re HS2 was worrying, but I wondered - what went on when the motorway network was being built/bulldozed through the country? I remember protests ... and bland DfT officials assuring us that it would all be great; but was the PAC of that time keeping an eye on costs? Did they over-run? - was anything done about it? Look forward to the complete version of Richard's interview with James Price.
Remember that quite a lot of the planned motorway network in the 1960s/early 1970s was scaled back or cut out completely, for many reasons including costs, over runs and public opposition.
Looking forward to the James price interview next week. I'm off for my own jolly around the Cardiff valleys next week trying to get photos of twj last remaining class 150s as their numbers are dropping quickly
Grand Central is probably the only one you could argue has driven growth (from Durham Coastline and Tees Valley lines) however that could have been fixed with either LNER running those services, TPE running direct services from Sunderland to York or actually having direct services between Hartlepool and Stockton to/from Darlington so people could connect for KX. Again the lack of direct services to Darlington is also undermining Railway 200. IMO
@@GreenSignals the only evidence to point to is growth from Hartlepool post introduction of GC Rail based on ORR data, Northern had very limited Pacer based services for a long time so is it GC that’s fed growth for both them and Northern or was it trending upwards anyway, it’s hard to tell. They are operating services no one else was prepared to so in terms of abstraction from Durham coastline point of view I’d have to argue it’s little to zero. There are no meaningful public transport solutions that feed from North of the River Tees to any mainline station, so my argument would be if no one is prepared to offer connecting services to KX via York or Darlington then the abstraction point is difficult to make.
If the SoS has actually become aware of the significance of congestion on the network, what does that imply about the bottlenecks resulting from the cancellation of HS2 phase 2?
Not having a cost estimate for phase 1 really I think leads on to your initial point about Northern Power House and big project being dead . Clearly if we can’t cost them and run them these projects must be dead . Add in the Governments increased costs of borrowing and I fear that there will be a lot of rail projects and others that will not pass the spending review . Have HS2 got a competent team if we don’t actually know costs . In private companies this is fundamental it’s really shocking that in public contracts we don’t know this .
There have been many increases in the costs, I bet all the costs for work at Euston with the tunnel protesters is added to the bill, the extra cost when found the unknown burial ground at Euston, the massive increase in costs due to long tunnels (possibly through some of these committee members constituencies), delays whilst looked at the remains of the roundhouse found at Curzon street etc. so are they adding in any contingency for unforeseen’s now.
An excellent weekly update as always, Thanks for the really useful excavation (sorry!) of the HS2 cost conundrum and I am SO glad not to be working for HS2 Ltd - despite the transformative achievements in the Civils programme for this vital capacity boost for the UK (Sorry Nigel, line me up in the "S.I.G.G" group the group chanting "I want to see HS2 delivered!!). Tip: can we teach Nigel about the "mute" button when his cough becomes irresistible (I've just spent two hours muting myself when needed, to maintain the meeting flow)?
Sorry about the cough Mike - I did think about muting the audio more but for those watching it can be a little weird if you do that too much. Anyway, Nigel is certainly on the mend!
No questioning the effort of workers at the coalface but the fact that the upper echelons are being paid to fail to come up with an agreed way of estimating a budget is a national embarrassment.
Open Access - Passenger Costings. The "cost" to supply rail (space) to a operator for a specific service is still not defined or known about ? What about the old Railway Clearing House costs books or the Cooper Brothers Formulas ? And should cost be "Average Cost" - in which case costs FALL for incumbent "last resort- nationalised service- or Marginal Cost - in which case any additional revenue beyond wear and tear is money into the fixed line usage pot reducing the demand on public net funds ? Looking at Passenger Abstraction - has the Govt have no idea about generated demand , an open access operator the most that can be taken away from existing operator ( assuming the service is identical) is the number of seats provided, and presumabily the only way open access sums are viable is that they have done the numbers x revenue is worth doing , and passengers (a) have choice, and (b) have capacity freed on the incumbent operation. Logically if the incumbent looses passengers then their service is not needed and the govt can save money and not operate it, otherwise the open access people should just give up now and let the local MP field the comments about additional fares on the contracted services and the lack of a service from their town at a useful time.
@@mikehindson-evans159 Generally one can write the final report choosing whatever estimate/statistics and options you need to arrive at the conclusion you wanted all along.
I'm fairly new to your channel, which is great analysis btw, but the cost of HS2 should have just been for the track infrastructure the cities and not the track or stations in the middle of the industrial cities, which should be separately costed projects (I know they are needed but I this is how projects like HS2 are done in other countries). I've seen how much work is being done in and around Curzon St in Birmingham and this must be costing billions, as will getting HS2 to Euston. Having such a big project split in the way it has been makes it unmanageable and just too big. Even if initially the line was from Old Oak Common to Crewe with the lines into Birmingham, Manchester, and London, it could and should have been much more manageable. All I'm having from the Public accounts Committee is management speak from the private secretary woman, almost like the dog ate my homework. Delays inevitably lead to increased cost because of inflation. Sure bat tunnels can easily be criticized but in the end these are a drop in the ocean of the overall cost of the project, so whilst these are easily criticised surely the costs were so much more than when the project was initially announced because of delays and route changes, and the extra tunnels (not bat related ones) and viaducts (and other infrastructure) needed because of this. I can't believe this isn't understood by everyone from the minister in charge of the project to the man in the street and everyone in between and we're still having the same conversations we've been having for a long time now.
@GreenSignals I thought so. Aren't HSR projects in Europe in particular also only generally for the track between the cities and not going into the cities? By including all this in the final cost of the project, especially for grandiose new stations, like Curzon Street (which I do accept is necessary), it is inevitably going to massively increase the cost of the project and allow for massive scope creep in projects like this. I don't work in engineering but I'm software design big projects are always split down into the minimal deliverable sizes so that you can show benefit to the end user as quickly as possible and change course if situations change, so if only one part can be delivered at least there's benefit. In HS2's case, as with all infrastructure projects in this country, we seem to go for an all or nothing approach. I do get that HS2 was split up into different legs, HS2a, b, and c but these surely should have been split down further because I see the edge of London to Crewe (and also the leg up to Leeds) being by far the most important part of the original project with the stations in Birmingham and London as add ons to be worked on after the initial work has been completed (unless money is found for these separate projects from elsewhere, say local spending, which let's face it isn't there).
Given the direction of travel of the economy after the last budget, I'm afraid I wouldn't be at all surprised if a financial crisis didn’t cause all work on HS2 to be suspended before the year is out. The costs will be affected by increased business costs, and the falling value of the pound, which in turn will increase inflation. It's a double whammy.
Bit disingenuous to say phase one of the Metro has been delivered, with only three 756's out at the moment and mostly 150's. It's only delivered when all the trams are in place.
I wonder who in the DfT actually wrote Heidi's letter? All credit to her for signing it, though. I think that underlying it, and the answers given by tbe Dane at the PAC is the realisation that there isn't much money for capital investment.
While there is a lot to be said for small, unsexy projects, which often get squeezed out by more glamorous ones that can be sold to politicians etc, there is only so much you can do that way. In the end larger, sometimes much larger, projects are essential and it is of their nature that the early stages of these have a poor return it's only the complete project which delivers. It's not just HS2 - getting a business case for Ely seems to be a continuing nightmare.
Was First Great Eastern not branded just "Great Eastern" for a short time after NSE was broken up? In the same way South Eastern & Network SouthCentral were branded before Connex?
Under NSE when it was separated and prepared for privatisation, it was established as it's own company called Great Eastern Railway (GER) yes. Once first group took it over, it publicly traded as first great eastern from the start and traded as that until the end of the franchise - but the limited company behind the brand always remained as Great Eastern Railway until the company was closed down (some time after first lost the franchise). GER (under NSE) had it's own brand identity (nothing like NSE) but that was only applied to letterhead/documents, not used as public branding - and that was dropped entirely on documentation, as soon as first came in, in favour of first GE branding.
Just seen the news of Mick Lynch which is maybe why he refused to accomodate GS this time. It got me thinking. Whilst I know that the RMT will say their actions are to improve the lot of their members I wonder if by always being in dispute it creates a poor impression of the railways as a potential career for many people. That in turn leads to staff shortages, which, in turn, leads to disputes caused by staff shortages. It becomes a sort of self feeding circle.
If one was making a list of the 50 most influential(good or bad) people in UK railway history Dame Bernadette Kelly would be high in the 17:24 list. She runs rings around the politicians.
The Tories borrowed £1.5 trillion at very low interest rates and invested little in infrastructure . Now that debt is substantially more expensive the current government will need to service the interest for what has already been borrowed
Is the real problem with costing HS2 the same as the problems with Crossrail? At a certain level, we never know how much something will cost until it's done.
To reply to my own question, the UK is not unique in struggling with major projects - think Germany and the Stuttgart station rebuild, or high speed rail in the US.
@@bishwatntl Germany spent a long time without investing in infrastructure and now is paying the price for that. Rather than a continuous stream of smaller investments where knowledge and industry are built, there's a sudden need for large investments. In the UK the problem is exacerbated. Right now there's no in-house experience or know-how of how to deliver big rail projects. The local industry and suppliers will also squeeze as much as possible out of these big investments when they're so far and few in between. Everything inflates the costs. But it can't be denied that one of the greatest causes for delays and cost inflation in projects are the lack of commitment and changes in the middle of the project inflicted by changes in government. But in the USA these factors gain unimaginable dimensions, the socio-political climate is very hostile to infrastructure development.
Cost estimates currently not known or agreed, previous estimates based on 2019 prices and cost estimation methodology not agreed. Appalling state of affairs….
The 2019 estimates is simply that 2019 is a point reference date - it is quite common to have such a reference point but it does need updating during periods of relatively high inflation.
Got brush for Edge Hill Depot? The union told member,s not to work last sunday because there was 2" of snow on the pathway? No trains Liverpool to London! What a pathetic state of affairs.
a) that will change under GBR and b) are you happy with the notion of Open Access even if you know it's costing the taxpayer and running the risk that GBR services may need to be reduced in order to balance the books?
@GreenSignals I live in the Western Region. Our service has never been satisfactory since Sectorisation. How is this gunna fix our permanent shortage of trains and the fact the SWML Is still only single track from Salisbury. A shambolic situation that it has not been re doubled in the last 20 years especially as a key diversionary route
Northern (Powerhouse)Rail, is a concept that is undeliverable , look at the geography. What amount of (affordable, quality, housing can it really bring ?) Look instead at the present and probable freight traffic flows as an initial driver for where connectivity and capacity can be quick win provided. (eg Peel Ports building new storage near Hull docks / Immingham for what appears a trunk potential bottleneck/opportunity ). Passenger wise where are the problems ?- Manchester Piccadilly capacity/routing , greater electricification. Biggest problem with "The North" is all routes lead to Blackpool (North, South or Central) to the West and Newcastle/Hull/Grimsby to the East with bits of line via Manchester/ North of Manchester / Sheffield / Leeds / Doncaster. Beeching and Barbara Castle went with the idea that too much cross pennine capacity existed and thus limited such routes to the Dove Valley from Manchester down and then Up into Sheffield, and the Manchester- Rochdale-Todmorden-Huddersfield routing (with a bit of messing via Stalybridge as a near manchester orbital raiil which has not been really considered - the whole thing not helped by the 1972 PTEs of Greater Manchester, South Yorks and West Yorks all having slightly different priorities in how rail networks would function in their areas (and little cross area thought). Woodhead route has been blown out of use , leaving Colne -Skipton much more possible using bi-modes, ( if Chiltern Railways had been in that area that would be done by now) , Derby-Buxton-Manchester needs re-instating,. More trains Sheffield-Leeds via Swinton (S Yorks) and north from there are already in the timetable and are worth watching
Well, Northern Powerhouse Rail always looked to me like a slogan rather than a plan, another Boris Bright Idea. Predictably, this led to much confusion: some thought it was to be a 300 mph line from Manchester to Bradford, others saw it as a 300 mph line running from Hull to Manchester, without really explaining how the line was going to get over the Pennines, how it was going to remain a high speed line if it had to stop for passengers every few miles, or indeed whether anybody wanted to go to Hull at 300 mph. What was wanted, of course, was the conventional lines with a few tight curves opened out where possible, and much higher acceleration and deacceleration, which means you electrify. Whether the revamped Transpennine Route will lead to badly needed regeneration in the North is another question. The great Victorian engineers built lines between towns and cities where there was already a huge traffic potential. Fifty or sixty years on, market towns that still lacked a railway decided to build branch lines, usually bankrupting one or more contractors in the process and going into bankruptcy after a few years, until being absorbed by one of the larger companies, until finally dying a death in the 1950s or 1960s. Then, of course, there's the idea of taking freight traffic off the roads. Well thist hasn't happened in Australia - where distances are much longer - and I doubt that it'll happen Up North either. It's simply cheaper and quicker to use road transport.
@@andrewclarke6899 About right, though some of the branch lines with better timed DMUs and Railcars could have had a continued use, the loss of domestic coal / town gas in favour of electricty by cable or gas by pipeline was a major changer for local freight. Also forgotten - and campaigned more - was more wide ship canals that could connect Sheffield and Rotherham better to the Humber for timber sand and the older mineral traffic - mooted in the 1980s but not sure now if the inland demand / supply now sufficiently exists. Doncaster rail wise could probably do with a passenger station south of the area - for airport and the big box warehouses
Re: why HS2 and the department can't agree on the methodology of how to estimate the cost... I'm afraid we all know the answer - the huge over-reach and arrogance that has developed within the department that they know best and their determination to micromanage everything. It's an absolute abomination and has been utterly tragic for the industry. Also ridiculous statements that absolutely alude to 'shouldn't have been built to be high speed between city centres' - but the entire system would be utterly pointless if it did neither of those things. They are huge parts of the benefits! Re: the SoS being clearly against the Open Access applications - fine, but when you're refusing to invest in those additionally services, then how is it in the passengers interest to block open access operators who are? If you don't want open access operators, introduce and expand services under the NRC operators - and then the open access operators business cases wouldn't even exist in the first place.
Given the lack of progress on the Castlefield Corridor (Manchester), the total lack of interest by numerous Transport Secs on reopening Colne to Skipton line and Northwich to Sandbach line etc I think it’s been obvious that those in Westminster and the Dft couldn’t give a monkeys about Northern Powerhouse
I think the Castlefield corridor was killed off by Network Rail trebling the expected cost. The then CEO Mark Carne suggested Digital Signalling could create the necessary capacity instead.... 😂😂😂
Hi Nigel, know you were jesting about a “gong” but given the choice of receiving a “gong” or having a class 66 named after me I know which I would choose
It's far too simplistic to blame NIMBYs and DfT (scope changes) for the spiralling costs of Ph1. Yes, the planning system is archaic, but the bureaucratic hoop-jumping required was known when HS2 was first costed. Of course, additional mitigation ('green tunnels' etc.) increased the budget, but the reality is that HS2 costs (Ph1 and the whole project) doubled - in real terms - since the *end* of the consultation process, when the extent of Ph1 mitigation had been finalised. The 2023 Institute for Government investigation into HS2 states that scope changes accounted for only £1bn of the £20bn increase in project costs between 2017 and 2019...! And yes, I'm sure Andrew McNaughton would take issue with Kelly's nonsense about the pursuit of speed being a mistake! The economic appraisal framework used by her own department *required* squeezing out maximum journey time savings, especially for business pax, to make any economic case for HS2! Sheesh! Perhaps it would've suited Kelly better if HS2 had died a death at the hands of politicians, well before construction started. But remarkably the political consensus remained. Indeed there is still a political consensus... that ludicrously 'dire' (slow/overbudget) delivery, coupled with the post-covid collapse in high yield business travel, have rendered HS2 a lame duck... I also picked up from the PAC hearing that NPR is 'dead and buried', and the TRU is all that is going to happen, apart from incremental improvements to existing routes between specific towns/cities. The big collective push should be to get HS2 Ph1 joined to the Stoke/Manc line at Hixon, perhaps with the cheaper connection to the slow lines at Handsacre to help offset cost. The country is completely skint! Hixon would relieve the Handsacre/Colwich bottleneck, and allow a 30+min cut in Bham-Manc journey times, with Curzon St being less of a 'white elephant'. (Four unused platforms if only Ph1 is ever built!) On the Avanti strikes, how does recruiting more TMs who aren't contracted to work Sundays, improve the reliability of Sunday rail services? The answer lies with DfT getting union agreement for all traincrew to have Sundays in their contracted working week. But don't hold your breath under this government, as with rail improvements generally! Typically, on the one hand they welcome Open Access investing in new rolling stock, protecting GB jobs, but then they breathe down the neck of the ORR to limit new OA 😂😂😂
Why is nobody taking the management at Avanti to task on this problem. It seems to me they must be pretty naive to depend on the "goodwill" of the train drivers to run their Sunday services. Since as far back as I can remember the concept of goodwill by the rail unions has not been their strong point. To add to this the management seem to be so gormless as not to see, that their failure to recruit and train sufficient staff will always give the upper hand to the unions.
What a shambles HS2 management has been. Why on earth are the costs still noted at 2019 prices? The engineering may be working miracles but it sounds like the accounting and planning is a complete mess.
A baseline price is normal for large contracts, specific inflators are allowed to be built into project costs to contractors, including for "extra works" not in the original scope where new costs for that are back rebased to 2019 values to provide a common comparison bases.
"Dame" Bernadette Kelly... someone who genuinely and clearly doesnt want to do anything whatsoever for the rail industry... never heard someone so negative about the industry in a long long time...
I can't understand how HS2 ltd were allowed to get away with adding £billions to HS2 costs by building superfluous tunnels in the Chilterns just to appease the NIMBYs. HS2 Ltd are a public body supposed to be controlled by DfT. So where were DfT when this massive addition to the project's scope was approved? Good to see 'gritty' Nigel back. Stef was good, but GS does need that down to earth 'Nigel' element! I won't be celebrating 200 years of UK rail until 2030. The Stockton to Darlington was not a true railway in the way the Liverpool & Manchester was. Vince C.
Thanks for kind words...and don;t forget it wasn't that HS2 ';got away' with all those tunnels - they were a Government requirement to appease their MPs!
Efficiency, Effectiveness and Economy. Words often used as benchmarking of expenditure where a simple Profit:Investment/Payback cannot normally be shown. 3 words really ill defined. But note the present Govt criteria mentioned (by Starmer?) of money has to meet the objectives (one of which was growth - seemingly at any (environment/ externality costs). The Govt has decided to both nationalise rail and starve it of investment. BR 1948/1950s/1960s/1970s all over again)
Block Failure again, certainly wouldn't travel on your railway with all the Block Failures you have. You should install MAS might make it run a bit better, or is the cause the wrong type of snow or leaves on the line!!!
You seem to spend more time concerned with the tone of the RMT press releases than analysing the reason they are going on strike. Do you think the £500 incentive for managers to cover safety critical staff is the right way to ensure services operating in the short term?
Levelling back to normal…everything needs to be spent around London so the Politicians and those who make money can keep their London areas well equipped for their business…it seems! As per usual! The current railway is roughly 200 years old! Why can’t the numptys see that HS2 isn’t a short term spend?? 🤦🤡
Is anyone else getting triggered by the fact that the red paint/vinyl, along the different panels on the front end of the tram, don’t actually match?! It really hurt my brain, more than anything else in the podcast 😂
As for the claim that high speed means high cost - of course it does. Just think about the alternative - which would be cheaper - a horse drawn tramway, or a 300km/h railway? Forget about the work either project can deliver. The cost of high speed is higher.
In this day and age a horse tramway would require heated stables, water and food stations every few miles. Then there would be additional horse welfare stations staffed with vets groomsetc. Would cost a fortune!
Horse drawn transport wasn't cheap. The animals could only work so many hours a day, and where there were gradients you had to house and feed extra horses to help get the load up the hill. Electric trams and motor buses meant cheaper fares.
‘Dame’ 🙄 These titles need to be reconsidered I think…why is this person such a ‘better’ person than a person without a Dame title? So many of these people seem to get these titles from their friends and they all associate themselves in the same circle of self-absorbed, stuffy, old-school politicians that look at everything in the short term gains to justify their short terms in power. Nothing of any massive long term investment will ever be build with such short-sightedness, but that’s todays government, why spend money on something if it won’t benefit you in your term of power hey?? Ridiculous!
HS2 is not being built for the benefit of rail. It is for the benefit of the construction industry who are taking the country for a ride.(sorry for the pun)
You are too indulgent of Dame Bernardette. What a marshalling of exculpatory excuses.Just listen carefully to her words. Are we to suppose that the contracts are not priced. It sounds like it. We are used to speculation about multipliers applied to any cost benefit analysis. It’s about bills not cost benefit.
As I’m sure the Green Signals team will have heard, Mick Lynch has announced his retirement as General Secretary of the RMT, so I’m guessing this may be part of why he doesn’t want to appear on the show. Nice to see you recovering Nigel, Stef did a fantastic job.
Another great video! Those videos showing MPs discussing HS2 makes me angry to see how bureaucratic and bogged down by meetings for meetings, no wonder everything costs a fortune and we get almost nothing done!
Thanks!
Cheers Alan. Much appreciated.
Thanks
Cheers Chris. Really do appreciate your kind support.
Richard does deserve a reward for watching that, send him a Green Signals mug!
Excellent. Consider it done.
Ultimately, it doesn't matter how much mega-projects cost because they all cost the same: a hell of a lot, and always much more than you might think.
The real question is, will this benefit the country more than not doing it? Once that decision is taken, stick to it and, if the decision is to do it, keep doing it.
The biggest waste of money is to constantly backtrack, chop and change and, most of all, spending but then cancelling.
I can totally understand why people can't agree how to calculate the costs of massive, one-off projects, because there are a myriad variables.
You are right re cut and cover tunnels being wasteful. Near Coventry, the hs2 route follows a disused railway line which was in a cutting and in recent years has been a greenway. Instead of just using the existing cutting they are building a huge cut and cover tunnel in the existing railway cutting !
Depends what use you are going to make of the "new" land above - and less likely to kill insects in a tunnel and thus protect bat environments
Plenty of concrete and the associated CO2 released in its production. Not a "green" tunnel at all.
Glad you're on the mend, Nigel. If I were you I'd be worried at just how well Steph managed in your absence!
Yes, I was just thinking "who's this bloke sitting in for Stef?" :)
I'm always happy to have Stef sit ins my seat, as she did for ten years or so on RAIL!
Happy New Year - Thanks for another informative commentary of our trains
As I’m sure the Green Signals team will have heard, Mick Lynch has announced his retirement as General Secretary of the RMT, so I’m guessing this may be part of why he doesn’t want to appear on the show.
Nice to see you recovering Nigel, Stef did a fantastic job.
Good riddance to Lynch after all the trouble him and his union have caused passengers in Northern England, but knowing the RMT they will elect another left wing nutcase to carry on causing trouble
Ringo Starr was succeeded by the late, great Michael Angelis as the voice of Thomas & Friends for over twenty years. R.I.P. Britt Allcroft, our railways just wouldn't have been the same without you.
Nigel, good to see you back in your chair. Steph is a brilliant sub, so I guess you have guided her well.
HS 2. Wasn't it a project to level things up between the cities of the north and the South. With a lot of the current infrastructure approaching 200 years old, railways are in need of support and repair before we start to see more failure of the network. Causing more uncertainty for the travelling public.
Gents, you already probably know that to fill a driver vacancy. Rail companies need to identify the action to get from an identified job vacancy to filling it, which can take up to 24 months.
Thanks Chris. Stef did a truly excellent job as she always does in whatever she tackles. You'll defo see a lot more of here in the future - we have some big plans!
Great point picking from these committees, just waiting for new Bradford Station to be dropped again just as city of culture starts!
Long term planning still a lottery. Good to see Nigel back in action.
Lottery is an appropriate word Allan!
I did see that the Daily Telegraph had said that one union , possibly Aslef? Had told it's Avanti West Coast drivers not to walk on the snow to their cabs, if correct, not very traditional railways must do the best to provide a service. Apparently, a number of services were cancelled. It's similar to not going up Shap the other week when freights and a charter did. I didn't know what they are currently striking for, so thanks for relaying the information. Good show.
Phillip Benham was also the General Manager at the NYMR before his role as chair of the friends of the national railway museum
Of course. Well remembered Tom.
Given the number of cost estimations that have been undertaken over the 12 years, surely any debate on the methodology now is a nonsense. It’s not like Quantity Surveying is a new process.
So one month the PM and Chancellor turn up in person to celebrate open access investment, then the next month the Transport Secretary sticks the knife in. Joined up thinking?
Does feel a bit opportunist doesn't it!
Great show
There was a joke many years ago, about 3 trains in a station side by side. A Central train, a First train, and a One train. Customer asks which one goes first?’ The reply ‘the central one goes first.’
Oh, very droll!
Thank you once again for another cracking GS episode. Thoroughly enjoyable as always! We will have to get the Green Signals crew up to Prestongrange at some point this year for a long overdue visit.
I'm looking forward to doing exactly that Ross. I wish you well in that project.
@nigelharris6873 The invitation is there anytime you are all passing our way. I'll get on with tidying up the trackside from the ever encroaching vegetation!
I live on the route of HS2 surrounded by construction sites. Many locals rarely, if ever, use trains and have little interest. Its certainly very difficult defending the project with costs rocketing, constant changes in the vision and the scale of destruction evident. As a lover of railways do I feel confident in defending the whole thing. Im afraid the answer has to be "No" Not any more.
Keep up the great work gents
Many mancunian rail topics, the UK microcosm of the macrocosm. Important topics as always on your quality weekly show. I am always looking forward to your fascinating show and HS2, EWR, TRU, northern leveling-up; and the NPR. Now we are all with the rail-human condition. Thank you.
BTW I believe they *_do_* have all the good estimates and the actual finance and schedule estimates probably just don't "work out" in the budgets going forward.
Yes, it is batty. They just don't want to air their "laundry"...because it will probably stop many rail onging and future efforts.
Here we are.
Very interesting thank you
Cheers Paul.
Let's not get too downhearted, chaps (and Steff): As you say, the continuing work on the ground to make HS2 a reality is just breathtaking, and the transformation of the railway in South Wales is nothing short of miraculous (a train every 20mins from Merthyr Tydfil to Cardiff? That didn't happen even in the heyday of the GWR!). Also, East/West Rail is still ploughing ahead, as is the Transpenine upgrade. There's encouraging news in Scotland, too.
Of course, the cancellation of the rest of HS2 without a credible Plan B is extremely bad news, but as can be seen by the "we can't tell you how much the current bit will cost" statement at the recent PAC meeting, there is still a great deal of work to be done to move away from what I view as a "cost-plus" mentlatity that used to be common in the defence industry. No government should - nor could - carry on like that. It's up to the highly paid execs responsible for the project to get a grip. And if they can't, then replace them with people who can.
There's 4tph Merthyr to Cardiff - every 15 minutes to each head of the valley is a key plank of South Wales Metro.
@sihollett Even better than I thought 😃
@@stephendavies6949 It's only 2 at the moment (4 half-hourly services: Merthyr - Cardiff Queen St - Cardiff Central - Aberdare, Treherbert - Cardiff Central, Pontypridd - Bay and Queen St - Bay) but will be 4tph to each head of valley terminus from Cardiff, and 6tph to the Bay (2 from each head) when works are complete.
Let’s hope the highly paid execs are allowed to get in with the job and not emasculated by suffocating bureaucracy.
@GreenSignals Yes, can't disagree with that.
18:50 My friend is a project leader on a 5 mile section in the Banbury area, and he's said that the timescale for completion of phase 1 is 2028.
Fresh faced on site his work programme was supposed to last for 2 months. There was a three week delay! He was not a happy bunny. He didn't mention what the problem was but the work that his team needed to do couldn't be done because of delay.
Now this is a guy who's deadly serious about his work, moving fast and efficiently - almost military. He's not from Britain so he's getting used to the way things work here. Including delays.
A friend of mine is working on it - or sitting around waiting to work! They keep getting told they can’t work due to the weather which would be fine if it was coming from people experienced in what they are doing. However it’s not. It’s coming from managers etc with no experience. There are steps that could be taken to enable them to work in the weather which would be a lot cheaper than the cost of the team doing nothing. Maybe they need to ask the guys on the ground how to save money!
Really interesting and clear summary . In the case of hs2, I think the contractor firms have got one over the civil servants. As a matter of interest which 40 is that flame cut from?
Thanks Garth.
And it’s 40035 - the finest member of the class of course!
@GreenSignals I had 33 and 34 in the early to mid 80s but I think 35 evaded me!
The problem starts with the lack of an effective means of estimating the value of infrastructure, and following from that is an equitable way of paying for it.
The end result of infrastructure investment and operation is to enhance and sustain land values. There has been little study of this apart from a survey for Transport for London following the completion of the Jubilee Line Extension. This showed an aggregate land value uplift of 3.5 times the construction cost.
It follows from this that an equitable means of finance would be through land value tax instead of the present taxes.
It is significant that land values in the depressed northern regions are the lowest in the country.
Whether high speed rail is better value than local transport investment seems to remain unknown.
If it is any consolation, the Västlänk project in Gothenburg, Sweden, has hit precisely the same troubles.
You're describing the highest level of creating accounting! You need to resort to such alchemy because using the financial analysis techniques that mere mortals in the business world have to use, HS2 is a complete white elephant that fails any conventional economic test!
@andrewhotston983
On the contrary - if this information was systematically collected, white elephant projects would be identified at an early stage.
@@physiocrat7143 i can see Peel Holdings really liking to pay Land Value uplift tax on their massive amount of holdings of land Liverpool/Manchester area
@highpath4776
Land value uplift tax is a dumb idea. Assess the business rates on site values only and the uplift is automatically picked up when the time for revaluation comes round.
Simples.
@andrewhotston983
Using the financial analysis techniques that business uses, no infrastructure or any other public goods would ever get built.
Thanks for another great, informative episode! Your spotlight on the PAC session re HS2 was worrying, but I wondered - what went on when the motorway network was being built/bulldozed through the country? I remember protests ... and bland DfT officials assuring us that it would all be great; but was the PAC of that time keeping an eye on costs? Did they over-run? - was anything done about it?
Look forward to the complete version of Richard's interview with James Price.
Remember that quite a lot of the planned motorway network in the 1960s/early 1970s was scaled back or cut out completely, for many reasons including costs, over runs and public opposition.
I didn't touch the mouse for 1:00:56. Speaks volumes for the channel. "What idiot.............." That's me, the master of Dentopedology.
Looking forward to the James price interview next week.
I'm off for my own jolly around the Cardiff valleys next week trying to get photos of twj last remaining class 150s as their numbers are dropping quickly
Ringo Starr might be the voice of 80’s Thomas but I grew up listening to the Jonny Morris version on vinyl.
Ah yes, I do remember those.
I still have mine!
Grand Central is probably the only one you could argue has driven growth (from Durham Coastline and Tees Valley lines) however that could have been fixed with either LNER running those services, TPE running direct services from Sunderland to York or actually having direct services between Hartlepool and Stockton to/from Darlington so people could connect for KX.
Again the lack of direct services to Darlington is also undermining Railway 200. IMO
Do we have the empirical evidence to show that growth, net if any abstraction of course? Would be interested.
@@GreenSignals the only evidence to point to is growth from Hartlepool post introduction of GC Rail based on ORR data, Northern had very limited Pacer based services for a long time so is it GC that’s fed growth for both them and Northern or was it trending upwards anyway, it’s hard to tell. They are operating services no one else was prepared to so in terms of abstraction from Durham coastline point of view I’d have to argue it’s little to zero.
There are no meaningful public transport solutions that feed from North of the River Tees to any mainline station, so my argument would be if no one is prepared to offer connecting services to KX via York or Darlington then the abstraction point is difficult to make.
If the SoS has actually become aware of the significance of congestion on the network, what does that imply about the bottlenecks resulting from the cancellation of HS2 phase 2?
I'm pretty sure that it's in the hillsides and vales that the welcomes are kept, Nigel.
Not having a cost estimate for phase 1 really I think leads on to your initial point about Northern Power House and big project being dead . Clearly if we can’t cost them and run them these projects must be dead . Add in the Governments increased costs of borrowing and I fear that there will be a lot of rail projects and others that will not pass the spending review . Have HS2 got a competent team if we don’t actually know costs . In private companies this is fundamental it’s really shocking that in public contracts we don’t know this .
There have been many increases in the costs, I bet all the costs for work at Euston with the tunnel protesters is added to the bill, the extra cost when found the unknown burial ground at Euston, the massive increase in costs due to long tunnels (possibly through some of these committee members constituencies), delays whilst looked at the remains of the roundhouse found at Curzon street etc. so are they adding in any contingency for unforeseen’s now.
An excellent weekly update as always, Thanks for the really useful excavation (sorry!) of the HS2 cost conundrum and I am SO glad not to be working for HS2 Ltd - despite the transformative achievements in the Civils programme for this vital capacity boost for the UK (Sorry Nigel, line me up in the "S.I.G.G" group the group chanting "I want to see HS2 delivered!!). Tip: can we teach Nigel about the "mute" button when his cough becomes irresistible (I've just spent two hours muting myself when needed, to maintain the meeting flow)?
Sorry about the cough Mike - I did think about muting the audio more but for those watching it can be a little weird if you do that too much.
Anyway, Nigel is certainly on the mend!
Sorry Mike, you're asking me to multi task when I was barely compos mentis as it was! My apologies...will try and remember whenI'm next afflicted!
Never trust anyone who starts the answer to a question with the word "so..."
So true.
I know, it's a very irritating affectation. Even worse is "Look,......" Grr.
No questioning the effort of workers at the coalface but the fact that the upper echelons are being paid to fail to come up with an agreed way of estimating a budget is a national embarrassment.
It isn't great is it!
Open Access - Passenger Costings. The "cost" to supply rail (space) to a operator for a specific service is still not defined or known about ? What about the old Railway Clearing House costs books or the Cooper Brothers Formulas ? And should cost be "Average Cost" - in which case costs FALL for incumbent "last resort- nationalised service- or Marginal Cost - in which case any additional revenue beyond wear and tear is money into the fixed line usage pot reducing the demand on public net funds ? Looking at Passenger Abstraction - has the Govt have no idea about generated demand , an open access operator the most that can be taken away from existing operator ( assuming the service is identical) is the number of seats provided, and presumabily the only way open access sums are viable is that they have done the numbers x revenue is worth doing , and passengers (a) have choice, and (b) have capacity freed on the incumbent operation. Logically if the incumbent looses passengers then their service is not needed and the govt can save money and not operate it, otherwise the open access people should just give up now and let the local MP field the comments about additional fares on the contracted services and the lack of a service from their town at a useful time.
Another "cost methodology gap"??
@@mikehindson-evans159 Generally one can write the final report choosing whatever estimate/statistics and options you need to arrive at the conclusion you wanted all along.
I'm fairly new to your channel, which is great analysis btw, but the cost of HS2 should have just been for the track infrastructure the cities and not the track or stations in the middle of the industrial cities, which should be separately costed projects (I know they are needed but I this is how projects like HS2 are done in other countries). I've seen how much work is being done in and around Curzon St in Birmingham and this must be costing billions, as will getting HS2 to Euston. Having such a big project split in the way it has been makes it unmanageable and just too big. Even if initially the line was from Old Oak Common to Crewe with the lines into Birmingham, Manchester, and London, it could and should have been much more manageable. All I'm having from the Public accounts Committee is management speak from the private secretary woman, almost like the dog ate my homework.
Delays inevitably lead to increased cost because of inflation. Sure bat tunnels can easily be criticized but in the end these are a drop in the ocean of the overall cost of the project, so whilst these are easily criticised surely the costs were so much more than when the project was initially announced because of delays and route changes, and the extra tunnels (not bat related ones) and viaducts (and other infrastructure) needed because of this. I can't believe this isn't understood by everyone from the minister in charge of the project to the man in the street and everyone in between and we're still having the same conversations we've been having for a long time now.
It is the case that stations in particular are often treated as standalone projects in similar projects in other countries.
@GreenSignals I thought so. Aren't HSR projects in Europe in particular also only generally for the track between the cities and not going into the cities? By including all this in the final cost of the project, especially for grandiose new stations, like Curzon Street (which I do accept is necessary), it is inevitably going to massively increase the cost of the project and allow for massive scope creep in projects like this.
I don't work in engineering but I'm software design big projects are always split down into the minimal deliverable sizes so that you can show benefit to the end user as quickly as possible and change course if situations change, so if only one part can be delivered at least there's benefit. In HS2's case, as with all infrastructure projects in this country, we seem to go for an all or nothing approach.
I do get that HS2 was split up into different legs, HS2a, b, and c but these surely should have been split down further because I see the edge of London to Crewe (and also the leg up to Leeds) being by far the most important part of the original project with the stations in Birmingham and London as add ons to be worked on after the initial work has been completed (unless money is found for these separate projects from elsewhere, say local spending, which let's face it isn't there).
Good to see Nigel back, he really does have a face for Radio!
Thankyou.....I think!
@@nigelharris6873 most welcome!
Given the direction of travel of the economy after the last budget, I'm afraid I wouldn't be at all surprised if a financial crisis didn’t cause all work on HS2 to be suspended before the year is out.
The costs will be affected by increased business costs, and the falling value of the pound, which in turn will increase inflation. It's a double whammy.
Bit disingenuous to say phase one of the Metro has been delivered, with only three 756's out at the moment and mostly 150's. It's only delivered when all the trams are in place.
Northern power house and leveling up been dead since 2020
I thought levelling up had been reinterpreted as we are going to lower the whole country.
Welcome back, Nigel. 2025 "Challenging" ? I doubt G.S. is going to be short of subject matter..
I wonder who in the DfT actually wrote Heidi's letter? All credit to her for signing it, though. I think that underlying it, and the answers given by tbe Dane at the PAC is the realisation that there isn't much money for capital investment.
While there is a lot to be said for small, unsexy projects, which often get squeezed out by more glamorous ones that can be sold to politicians etc, there is only so much you can do that way. In the end larger, sometimes much larger, projects are essential and it is of their nature that the early stages of these have a poor return it's only the complete project which delivers. It's not just HS2 - getting a business case for Ely seems to be a continuing nightmare.
Remember the £GBP18billion expended on PUG1 and PUG2 - and we STILL need the capacity uplift...
I wonder if the HST revised budget will be completed and agreed before or after the first trains will run?
An interesting notion!
37:37 We call it in my industry (industrial) the silver tsunami
Was First Great Eastern not branded just "Great Eastern" for a short time after NSE was broken up? In the same way South Eastern & Network SouthCentral were branded before Connex?
Under NSE when it was separated and prepared for privatisation, it was established as it's own company called Great Eastern Railway (GER) yes.
Once first group took it over, it publicly traded as first great eastern from the start and traded as that until the end of the franchise - but the limited company behind the brand always remained as Great Eastern Railway until the company was closed down (some time after first lost the franchise).
GER (under NSE) had it's own brand identity (nothing like NSE) but that was only applied to letterhead/documents, not used as public branding - and that was dropped entirely on documentation, as soon as first came in, in favour of first GE branding.
Just seen the news of Mick Lynch which is maybe why he refused to accomodate GS this time.
It got me thinking.
Whilst I know that the RMT will say their actions are to improve the lot of their members I wonder if by always being in dispute it creates a poor impression of the railways as a potential career for many people. That in turn leads to staff shortages, which, in turn, leads to disputes caused by staff shortages. It becomes a sort of self feeding circle.
I see Nigel now needs a sign on the wall to remind him of his name. 🙂
Sorry...have we met? Who are you?! :-))
If one was making a list of the 50 most influential(good or bad) people in UK railway history Dame Bernadette Kelly would be high in the 17:24 list. She runs rings around the politicians.
She is certainly very experienced.
Shame about Britt Allcroft. I learned to read with Thomas the Tank Engine and enjoyed the TV series. Condolences to her family and friends
The Tories borrowed £1.5 trillion at very low interest rates and invested little in infrastructure . Now that debt is substantially more expensive the current government will need to service the interest for what has already been borrowed
We now know why Mr Lynch was unavailable.
Is the real problem with costing HS2 the same as the problems with Crossrail? At a certain level, we never know how much something will cost until it's done.
To reply to my own question, the UK is not unique in struggling with major projects - think Germany and the Stuttgart station rebuild, or high speed rail in the US.
@@bishwatntl Germany spent a long time without investing in infrastructure and now is paying the price for that. Rather than a continuous stream of smaller investments where knowledge and industry are built, there's a sudden need for large investments.
In the UK the problem is exacerbated. Right now there's no in-house experience or know-how of how to deliver big rail projects. The local industry and suppliers will also squeeze as much as possible out of these big investments when they're so far and few in between. Everything inflates the costs.
But it can't be denied that one of the greatest causes for delays and cost inflation in projects are the lack of commitment and changes in the middle of the project inflicted by changes in government.
But in the USA these factors gain unimaginable dimensions, the socio-political climate is very hostile to infrastructure development.
Cost estimates currently not known or agreed, previous estimates based on 2019 prices and cost estimation methodology not agreed. Appalling state of affairs….
The 2019 estimates is simply that 2019 is a point reference date - it is quite common to have such a reference point but it does need updating during periods of relatively high inflation.
Got brush for Edge Hill Depot? The union told member,s not to work last sunday because there was 2" of snow on the pathway? No trains Liverpool to London! What a pathetic state of affairs.
We need open access to increase trains where TOCs dont and cant.
a) that will change under GBR and b) are you happy with the notion of Open Access even if you know it's costing the taxpayer and running the risk that GBR services may need to be reduced in order to balance the books?
@GreenSignals I live in the Western Region. Our service has never been satisfactory since Sectorisation. How is this gunna fix our permanent shortage of trains and the fact the SWML Is still only single track from Salisbury. A shambolic situation that it has not been re doubled in the last 20 years especially as a key diversionary route
Northern (Powerhouse)Rail, is a concept that is undeliverable , look at the geography. What amount of (affordable, quality, housing can it really bring ?) Look instead at the present and probable freight traffic flows as an initial driver for where connectivity and capacity can be quick win provided. (eg Peel Ports building new storage near Hull docks / Immingham for what appears a trunk potential bottleneck/opportunity ). Passenger wise where are the problems ?- Manchester Piccadilly capacity/routing , greater electricification. Biggest problem with "The North" is all routes lead to Blackpool (North, South or Central) to the West and Newcastle/Hull/Grimsby to the East with bits of line via Manchester/ North of Manchester / Sheffield / Leeds / Doncaster. Beeching and Barbara Castle went with the idea that too much cross pennine capacity existed and thus limited such routes to the Dove Valley from Manchester down and then Up into Sheffield, and the Manchester- Rochdale-Todmorden-Huddersfield routing (with a bit of messing via Stalybridge as a near manchester orbital raiil which has not been really considered - the whole thing not helped by the 1972 PTEs of Greater Manchester, South Yorks and West Yorks all having slightly different priorities in how rail networks would function in their areas (and little cross area thought). Woodhead route has been blown out of use , leaving Colne -Skipton much more possible using bi-modes, ( if Chiltern Railways had been in that area that would be done by now) , Derby-Buxton-Manchester needs re-instating,. More trains Sheffield-Leeds via Swinton (S Yorks) and north from there are already in the timetable and are worth watching
Well, Northern Powerhouse Rail always looked to me like a slogan rather than a plan, another Boris Bright Idea. Predictably, this led to much confusion: some thought it was to be a 300 mph line from Manchester to Bradford, others saw it as a 300 mph line running from Hull to Manchester, without really explaining how the line was going to get over the Pennines, how it was going to remain a high speed line if it had to stop for passengers every few miles, or indeed whether anybody wanted to go to Hull at 300 mph. What was wanted, of course, was the conventional lines with a few tight curves opened out where possible, and much higher acceleration and deacceleration, which means you electrify.
Whether the revamped Transpennine Route will lead to badly needed regeneration in the North is another question. The great Victorian engineers built lines between towns and cities where there was already a huge traffic potential.
Fifty or sixty years on, market towns that still lacked a railway decided to build branch lines, usually bankrupting one or more contractors in the process and going into bankruptcy after a few years, until being absorbed by one of the larger companies, until finally dying a death in the 1950s or 1960s.
Then, of course, there's the idea of taking freight traffic off the roads. Well thist hasn't happened in Australia - where distances are much longer - and I doubt that it'll happen Up North either. It's simply cheaper and quicker to use road transport.
@@andrewclarke6899 About right, though some of the branch lines with better timed DMUs and Railcars could have had a continued use, the loss of domestic coal / town gas in favour of electricty by cable or gas by pipeline was a major changer for local freight. Also forgotten - and campaigned more - was more wide ship canals that could connect Sheffield and Rotherham better to the Humber for timber sand and the older mineral traffic - mooted in the 1980s but not sure now if the inland demand / supply now sufficiently exists.
Doncaster rail wise could probably do with a passenger station south of the area - for airport and the big box warehouses
Re: why HS2 and the department can't agree on the methodology of how to estimate the cost... I'm afraid we all know the answer - the huge over-reach and arrogance that has developed within the department that they know best and their determination to micromanage everything. It's an absolute abomination and has been utterly tragic for the industry.
Also ridiculous statements that absolutely alude to 'shouldn't have been built to be high speed between city centres' - but the entire system would be utterly pointless if it did neither of those things. They are huge parts of the benefits!
Re: the SoS being clearly against the Open Access applications - fine, but when you're refusing to invest in those additionally services, then how is it in the passengers interest to block open access operators who are? If you don't want open access operators, introduce and expand services under the NRC operators - and then the open access operators business cases wouldn't even exist in the first place.
Given the lack of progress on the Castlefield Corridor (Manchester), the total lack of interest by numerous Transport Secs on reopening Colne to Skipton line and Northwich to Sandbach line etc I think it’s been obvious that those in Westminster and the Dft couldn’t give a monkeys about Northern Powerhouse
I think the Castlefield corridor was killed off by Network Rail trebling the expected cost. The then CEO Mark Carne suggested Digital Signalling could create the necessary capacity instead.... 😂😂😂
I fear there is a reason for a general lack of interest in reopening Colne - Skipton and plenty of other similar routes…..
Hi Nigel, know you were jesting about a “gong” but given the choice of receiving a “gong” or having a class 66 named after me I know which I would choose
And a Class 66 no less!
It's far too simplistic to blame NIMBYs and DfT (scope changes) for the spiralling costs of Ph1. Yes, the planning system is archaic, but the bureaucratic hoop-jumping required was known when HS2 was first costed. Of course, additional mitigation ('green tunnels' etc.) increased the budget, but the reality is that HS2 costs (Ph1 and the whole project) doubled - in real terms - since the *end* of the consultation process, when the extent of Ph1 mitigation had been finalised. The 2023 Institute for Government investigation into HS2 states that scope changes accounted for only £1bn of the £20bn increase in project costs between 2017 and 2019...!
And yes, I'm sure Andrew McNaughton would take issue with Kelly's nonsense about the pursuit of speed being a mistake! The economic appraisal framework used by her own department *required* squeezing out maximum journey time savings, especially for business pax, to make any economic case for HS2! Sheesh! Perhaps it would've suited Kelly better if HS2 had died a death at the hands of politicians, well before construction started. But remarkably the political consensus remained. Indeed there is still a political consensus... that ludicrously 'dire' (slow/overbudget) delivery, coupled with the post-covid collapse in high yield business travel, have rendered HS2 a lame duck...
I also picked up from the PAC hearing that NPR is 'dead and buried', and the TRU is all that is going to happen, apart from incremental improvements to existing routes between specific towns/cities. The big collective push should be to get HS2 Ph1 joined to the Stoke/Manc line at Hixon, perhaps with the cheaper connection to the slow lines at Handsacre to help offset cost. The country is completely skint! Hixon would relieve the Handsacre/Colwich bottleneck, and allow a 30+min cut in Bham-Manc journey times, with Curzon St being less of a 'white elephant'. (Four unused platforms if only Ph1 is ever built!)
On the Avanti strikes, how does recruiting more TMs who aren't contracted to work Sundays, improve the reliability of Sunday rail services? The answer lies with DfT getting union agreement for all traincrew to have Sundays in their contracted working week. But don't hold your breath under this government, as with rail improvements generally! Typically, on the one hand they welcome Open Access investing in new rolling stock, protecting GB jobs, but then they breathe down the neck of the ORR to limit new OA 😂😂😂
Why is nobody taking the management at Avanti to task on this problem. It seems to me they must be pretty naive to depend on the "goodwill" of the train drivers to run their Sunday services. Since as far back as I can remember the concept of goodwill by the rail unions has not been their strong point. To add to this the management seem to be so gormless as not to see, that their failure to recruit and train sufficient staff will always give the upper hand to the unions.
What a shambles HS2 management has been. Why on earth are the costs still noted at 2019 prices? The engineering may be working miracles but it sounds like the accounting and planning is a complete mess.
A baseline price is normal for large contracts, specific inflators are allowed to be built into project costs to contractors, including for "extra works" not in the original scope where new costs for that are back rebased to 2019 values to provide a common comparison bases.
In 2019 what was the anticipated completion date for the project?
Amazing things = expensive things...
"Dame" Bernadette Kelly... someone who genuinely and clearly doesnt want to do anything whatsoever for the rail industry... never heard someone so negative about the industry in a long long time...
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I can't understand how HS2 ltd were allowed to get away with adding £billions to HS2 costs by building superfluous tunnels in the Chilterns just to appease the NIMBYs. HS2 Ltd are a public body supposed to be controlled by DfT. So where were DfT when this massive addition to the project's scope was approved?
Good to see 'gritty' Nigel back. Stef was good, but GS does need that down to earth 'Nigel' element!
I won't be celebrating 200 years of UK rail until 2030. The Stockton to Darlington was not a true railway in the way the Liverpool & Manchester was.
Vince C.
Thanks for kind words...and don;t forget it wasn't that HS2 ';got away' with all those tunnels - they were a Government requirement to appease their MPs!
Efficiency, Effectiveness and Economy. Words often used as benchmarking of expenditure where a simple Profit:Investment/Payback cannot normally be shown. 3 words really ill defined. But note the present Govt criteria mentioned (by Starmer?) of money has to meet the objectives (one of which was growth - seemingly at any (environment/ externality costs). The Govt has decided to both nationalise rail and starve it of investment. BR 1948/1950s/1960s/1970s all over again)
Block Failure again, certainly wouldn't travel on your railway with all the Block Failures you have. You should install MAS might make it run a bit better, or is the cause the wrong type of snow or leaves on the line!!!
You seem to spend more time concerned with the tone of the RMT press releases than analysing the reason they are going on strike. Do you think the £500 incentive for managers to cover safety critical staff is the right way to ensure services operating in the short term?
Presumably the managers are only covering roles for which they are competent?
Surely it is much better “value for money” to upgrade existing poor services in the north rather than building a third London to Birmingham railway!
Levelling back to normal…everything needs to be spent around London so the Politicians and those who make money can keep their London areas well equipped for their business…it seems! As per usual! The current railway is roughly 200 years old! Why can’t the numptys see that HS2 isn’t a short term spend?? 🤦🤡
Is anyone else getting triggered by the fact that the red paint/vinyl, along the different panels on the front end of the tram, don’t actually match?!
It really hurt my brain, more than anything else in the podcast 😂
FYI. I hear Mick Lynch is retiring !
As for the claim that high speed means high cost - of course it does. Just think about the alternative - which would be cheaper - a horse drawn tramway, or a 300km/h railway? Forget about the work either project can deliver. The cost of high speed is higher.
Absolutely right. The real question is where and why was 350kmh chosen.
In this day and age a horse tramway would require heated stables, water and food stations every few miles. Then there would be additional horse welfare stations staffed with vets groomsetc. Would cost a fortune!
@chrisgrose5431 Yes, of course. But for the cost of HS2 you could have a tramway powered by unicorns!
Horse drawn transport wasn't cheap. The animals could only work so many hours a day, and where there were gradients you had to house and feed extra horses to help get the load up the hill. Electric trams and motor buses meant cheaper fares.
‘Dame’ 🙄 These titles need to be reconsidered I think…why is this person such a ‘better’ person than a person without a Dame title? So many of these people seem to get these titles from their friends and they all associate themselves in the same circle of self-absorbed, stuffy, old-school politicians that look at everything in the short term gains to justify their short terms in power. Nothing of any massive long term investment will ever be build with such short-sightedness, but that’s todays government, why spend money on something if it won’t benefit you in your term of power hey?? Ridiculous!
4 more years of this labour catastrophe. God help us all
why can’t they just import some workers and get it done.
HS2 is not being built for the benefit of rail. It is for the benefit of the construction industry who are taking the country for a ride.(sorry for the pun)
Easy to state but without any evidence to back it up, it doesn’t carry much weight.
@@allanfstoneThe evidence is the blank cheque which they require in order to create HS2!
You are too indulgent of Dame Bernardette. What a marshalling of exculpatory excuses.Just listen carefully to her words. Are we to suppose that the contracts are not priced. It sounds like it. We are used to speculation about multipliers applied to any cost benefit analysis. It’s about bills not cost benefit.
Well, whether we were too indulgent or not, you’re definitely in the running for comment of the week with the use of the word “exculpatory”. Bravo!
Can you pack it in with these Welsh cliches?
There's lovely for you.
@@andrewhotston983 Bigotry and racism dressed up as banter. How very English.
Thanks
Thanks!
Thanks Bob. Really appreciated as ever.
As I’m sure the Green Signals team will have heard, Mick Lynch has announced his retirement as General Secretary of the RMT, so I’m guessing this may be part of why he doesn’t want to appear on the show.
Nice to see you recovering Nigel, Stef did a fantastic job.
Yes, saw the news. Still General Sec till May though......
Thanks
Thanks Adrian. That's much appreciated.
Thanks
Many thanks Graham. Very much appreciated.
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Many thanks Evan. Very much appreciated.
Thanks
Thanks Paul. Very much appreciated.