Good times are coming. It’s a matter of how hard you can hold on. What is worrying me is not how long I have been holding in the down turn, but the upside. Would I be able to hold until the $300 or $500 range!
To reach 300$ they'd need to 76× their current market cap making them as big as byd. Byd is producing 4.2 million cars a year and Nio only 220k so there's very very long ways to go from there. It's more realsitic if when Nio becomes profitable if we hit the 135 billion market cap of 60$ again. That'd be a 14x return if you buy in now. Me personally I won't sell until I at least 4-5 my money and I'll hold out to see if it keep going up and the moment it loses a little steam sell.
Hey Odd let me give you the ultimate lesson. This is all you need to know. The analyst’s and all the financial people are not here for the average investors like us. They work for large corporations that are telling them what to do. So for years i have been either selling or holding when they say “buy”, and i have been buying when they say “sell”. And its worked to perfection.
Totally agree. I said it too many times that analysts works for their institutions. They have no obligations to retail investors or anyone else. But, doing the exact opposite of what they say is very interesting. Good comment
@ to do what I do you have to be an investor and not a trader, as it does take time. When they say sell, and I buy it’s usually 3-6 months when i see the benefits. Nio, is a different animal because although they have been around for 10 years, its still a start up, and they wouldn’t be shorting it so hard if they didn’t know it was going to be a monster. I do non aggressive calls with the stock and with all the premium money i get i just buy more shares.
@@sennaha That guy is an absolute childish clown.He is immature, blocks people who have different oppinions.Sad watching a grown man behaving like that.Also some big twitter guy turned him down for a video for christmas eve, but mmm arrogantly announced it before it was confirmed.i dont know who is a bigger clown mmm or mr P
You're right about NIO, all the fundamentals are fantastic, you were just wrong about level a stock can be manipulated by institutions, and the adverse effects of geopolitics and hype etc. NIO will still do well, but they pushed out the timeframe longer than anyone imagined possible!
AMD going the same way - strong fundamentals - good future - but manipulated by so called Analysts so its crashing - and lots of shorts by big investors...
I'm holding on to my shares long term even if it goes to zero. Won't be the first time I have had a stock go to zero. I am stubborn as well and usually wrong.
The emphasis on having a clear exit strategy is crucial, especially after experiencing the volatility of previous bull and bear markets. It’s refreshing to see the focus on setting realistic goals and understanding the why behind profit-taking. This approach not only prepares you for unexpected market shifts but also keeps you grounded during the emotional rollercoaster of trading. It’s a valuable reminder that crypto investing should ultimately serve our personal aspirations, rather than just becoming a game of chasing numbers. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around $200k to a decent 7 figures in the space of a few months...Thanks to Francine Duguay insights, daily trade signals, and my dedication to learning, I've been increasing my daily earnings. Kudos to the journey ahead!
The pump and dump has been a perfect eyeopener for us all to really see how unpredictable the market can be and the need for us to be trading not just seat and hodl.
We are watching the infancy of the EV Market and Industry. No one knows the future for certain. Nio is certainly positioned well to as you said... 1. Control expense via discipline and economy of Scale 2. Accelerate growth of production and sales The most beautiful thing is that Nio can reach profitibility independently from the US Economy. Why would Goldman Sachs invest in Nio? Meet with Nio... Greed and Manipulation of course. This stock is not going to zero. It was run up with dumb money at $60/share. Everything is going to work out. I have faith. Let them short. Ill keep buying. 13,500 at $4.73
hi I think growth and revenue climbing , I think we all lost because of nios losses keep getting larger and larger , I think once losses narrow and get closer to profitability it will go up and quickly ,
Nio has the technology, they have the differentiation in models, swap , chips etc. they need to monetize these to break even, I f they can do that the stock takes off. Pretty simple, the difficult part is done
We are with you Mr Odd i put 50% of my life savings into Nio only to see it evaporate to practically nothing. We invested in Nio at the wrong time unfortunately. Nio now leaves me with very sad regretable feelings. I gotta hold no choice
@@TheOddInvestorso how will WS play this? drive it down more, shake out retail investors? when spending & revenue both improve will things change? Is this a unique case with Nio? Has there been another company in similar situation in the past?
Honestly byd sold 4 times more cars than Tesla last year and they're still behind half a billion in market cap. It doesn't matter how good Chinese Ev's do they'll probably always be beind Tesla simply because the communist Chinese government isn't as much of a desirable market to invest into like an American company. I'm just hoping Nio can reach like 200 billion by 2030 it's more realsitic
You hit it on the nail my friend ... they know as we know about NIO...they have the power in wealth to make money as they short it down for however long they wish...they accumulate more and more at the lowest price they can ...so we wait :)
Totally agree. Their advanced modeling and simulation capabilities help them make the decision when to stop shorting. It is all about maximizing their profits
Goldman Sachs and others have millions of Nio shares, and sure they could be greedy to put the price down and buy much more. It’s good time to buy and accumulate more, even if price will go down, still it’s too cheap to ignore 🎉
@@TheOddInvestortesla deliver 500k 2020 market cap was one trillion dollar 💵 nio I hope deliver 500k 2025 why nio market 500b nio have swap ❤ should nio market cap end of 2025 atleast 250 billion dollar 💵
True. Sometimes they sell Tesla too. But, regardless of their decision, they have advanced modeling capabilities that all other financial institutions should have too
@@TheOddInvestor I wonder why it's even a question that these institutions utilize Monte Carlo and other modeling capabilities. That's the whole point why I learned this in math/school, ...at least for a few days, then never again. Until now as a math-tutor. These methods are very powerful and there's no doubt in my mind that ALL insurance companies, banks, hedge-fonds and governments implement this into their daily work and decisions. All of them. Understandably so, since all they would get bankrupt if not. And this process is in place for hundred years now, I'm confident. Lessions: we have to think like them. Look at SoFi, their stock had the same problems and I was rewarded now for patients and due diligence. They cannot (and don't want to) hold it down forever, there will be an accumulation phase of institutional firms. And also, what people tend to forget: China's economy is challenged and needs to revive. Alibaba's stock looks almost the same as Nio's from a technical perspective.. ^_^
NIO has several major problems: 1) First they don't make a profit. 2) Second, the Chinese economy is imploding. 3) NIO has previously diluted shares and will most likely do it again. Closing comments: I do agree with you regarding the Shorts and strategy. Stop Buying and Hold your position assuming you have sufficient shares. If you're new to NIO, then consider establishing a small position at these levels. Maybe 500 shares, then DCA up if there's upward movement. Please do not listen anybody telling you to just keep buying! Especially, that other TH-camr...
@@TheOddInvestor I would like to know your thoughts if the battery swap is still a moat - even though charging stations are getting faster? What are your thoughts Odd?
The difference is: they have insider know how and we don't. Those people are in the same golf clubs and decide where big money is routed next. No magic, no future predictions. I think it really is that simple.
@@TheOddInvestor They are all connected with Aladdin. It's a huge ecosystem. They have to be. All banks, all those rating companies - everything is connected with Aladdin.
I think people try to figure out reasons why the NIO sp is where it is. If it was trading at $20, we wouldn’t even be having that discussion . It is very obvious that his manipulation. Haley stock movement is barcoding meaning only Algo are trading the stock mostly. Rationalize the stock price is not possible as trading at a 1X obviously makes zero sense.
I added more today... I am over 18K shares price per share now $7.28 so way upside down here. I think the $8 target this year is going to happen. Investing is difficult if you are not a day trader or long term investor. I wish all happiness, and calmness as this is only MONEY, and health is the most important aspect of life.
I recently sold half my tech stock holdings due to all-time highs, leaving me with $400k. Should I invest in ETFs now or wait for a market correction considering potential inflation?
From $37K to $45K that's the minimum range of profit return every week I thinks it's not a bad one for me, now I have enough to pay bills and take care of my family.
Sounds interesting. I was planning to invest some few £ in some coins, stack them up and leave them for a few years, but seeing this changed my mindset. Thank you very much
Reality is - Many of us go after easy money totally ignoring the fundamentals and when the reality bites, we feel bad. Even now there are 100's of stocks with unrealistic PE ratios however NIO stock is hit on multiple fronts and only strong execution can pull the stock back and might take 24-36 months to recover. NIO is facing brutal local competition, they are losing lot of money on BaaS BTW is a strategic differentiator but might or might not yield returns( who can speculate tech changes in BaaS), Naked shorting, additional capital to stay afloat, geo tariff pressures, ability to launch in growth markets ( which in short term seems impossible). NIO I believe is still a very innovative company which will take off only after they become profitable and demonstrate that they can deliver consistently. Time will decide. Miracles might not happen
Totally agree with you. Waiting till Nio becomes profitable and demonstrate they can deliver consistently is not a good idea. It will be too late by then imo
I think Nio will do well and turn to profit in time so hopefully the stock price will improve. My main concern is with China and Taiwan issue. Somehow US need to improve relations with China and steer them off this course. I think we could still see some kind of sanction removing more Chinese stocks including baba, Nio and others. It's my main worry as I have a fairly large position in Nio.
The big boys have short time periods and must show a return every quarter if at all possible. I have no such handy cap and that is my advantage. I think the general population will not switch to EV's until the fueling takes the same amount of time as a gasser. This is what NIO brings to the table. Charge times are getting cut down through battery break throughs, the delivery of huge amounts of power on holidays is the problem, they all slow down when everyone charges at once.
I've been around for awhile and the big dogs missed Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, personal computers, the internet, cell phones, Bitcoin, Etherium, Meta, Tesla, Nvidia, Palantir etc until they became mainstream and started printing money. If they have software that can predict the future then they need to upgrade because their software sucks.
They do have modeling software such as Monte Carlo simulation as Cathie Wood already admitted a few years ago. As far as the entry point, it is a strategic decision. The fact that they all behave the same way is proof that they work together.
They all do their analysis and are better than the average people, but in the end, they also make mistakes. The difference is that they can move markets because they buy millions and people follow them.
@TheOddInvestor They will always be right. The only thing we can do is wait for the time when nio explodes. It could take another 5 years. I have 3000 shares and waiting. Sometimes, great companies go through a lot of crap. The market takes money from the inpatient to the patient. You buy a share at 4 dollars, then it goes to 2 dollars, and 8 months later goes to 10. That is how it works when the company is good.
Time to crank up the excuse machine. Huawei Aito is already out selling the entire Nio line up and as among the most expensive. They are already massively profitable and as Nio bag holders continue to make excuses the gap is only going to widen
So far, NIO battery swap business is not profitable. Battery swapping is used to promote EV sales. NIO battery swap business can be projected if you want to do a chart for us to show av swaps per station per day. Currently and for the next 2 years, everything riding on increased EV sales. Analysts, banks, insurance companies don't like to take on risk. We need to blue chip sticks included in our portfolios.
@@EAGLE-34- You also know lots of people hate the model Y design too yet its the highest selling automotive on the market. Like I said as long as 5-10 thousand people like it enough to buy it every month your personal taste or mine for that matter doesn’t matter. Also the firefly is not the make it or break it product ONVO is.
I recommend reading basic books on investing fellas! This was all pretty dang predictable :/ Nio 1500 deliveries, what's the excuse gonna be this time?
you said you might have too little information - indeed, you have too little information particularly about Zeekr, your assessment is lacking relevant facts (I am not a financial analyst, I am a market and tech analyst)
@ you are showing substantial emotions, this is not the ideal ground for research and to analyze. My position is not about Zeekr being „special“, it is about analyzing market, tech, particularly the surrounding of the brand, strategies, and such. If you do so, you would come to the conclusion you might not want to compare NIO with Zeekr, since their base, strategy, tech, and structure are completely different. Yes, the model line-up is showing some similarities but so do other brands and models.
Been looking around that xpeng cars doing very well at least much better than nio u can actually compare it to tesla and lot of people choosing xpeng 😅
@@TheOddInvestorThey have surely spent plenty of money, if they can now get the stock price up for a while they can raise money and not dilute so excessively. At some point shareholders need to be rewarded, otherwise no matter what they do, they will not succeed
Mr. Odd, we as investors only care about the stock price. It is the bottom line. Stock price is based on perception and manipulation. Who cares if NIO makes a boat load of money, but the stock price still at $4/share.
I would never make fun of you or mock you. However all your reasons regarding NIO no matter how valid or true, the market is irrational and does not care. The best we can do is ride on the coat tails of big institutions. They absolutely know with their advanced models and artificial intelligence when to sell and when to buy. So as a retail investor follow their lead or just invest in ETF funds and call it a day. Its a hard lesson for me also!
respectfully, i think u still got it wrong! it's all about numbers not emotions! xpev , li and zk is more efficient and profitable. it's not conspiracy!
watch how good and efficient Xpeng compare to NIO video title : Xpeng's insane Tesla-like production speed has transformed the company th-cam.com/video/rtbm-rfwF_E/w-d-xo.html
@@assem8754 The F3 Factory from Nio will be ready soon, this factory can produce 1 million cars. So with F1 and F2 right now they are doing car sales of 221,970. All the productions problems and speed issues when the state of the art F3 starts in June. Will you wait till June to buy Nio stock ?- Lol we have not even discussed Nio strategic advantages of their own Chip which is the same performance as Nividia's latest chip plus the swap station advantage. The silly analyst which is downplaying NIO has an obvious hidden agenda- buy for their personal gains while Nio is dirt cheap that at PE much lesser than her competition.
When you said Nio has infrastructure, I assume you meant swap stations, but aren't you forgetting that unlike Tesla, Nio doesn't own any charging piles. To put thing in perspective, Nio has about 3000 swap stations and there are about 12 million charging piles in China. Also, the actual cost of adding power to an EV via charging will most certainly be cheaper than via swapping. Furthermore, with ever improving battery charging curve and likely closer proximity to charging piles, the time advantage of swapping will become minimal, if any.
For nio to go up it needs to be in profit, atm it's losing money. Maybe it makes money from battery swap but it's a long way . Only time will tell. Coupled with tension of china hikes on import of 60% , there are hardly any buyers at these levels . There's no big money coming in. Then there are many other car companies e.g. vw, BMW etc that trade at x1 pe ratio. Only outlier is tesla as its seen tech , fsd, hype of elon. But hope nio goes up in long term just prob not in the short term. It's also launching in uk? So that will be good
@@TheOddInvestor NIO to the moon was supposed to happen in 2021 2022 2023 2024 So what year do you think it is going to happen IMO NIO will never see 60 again AND IF IT DID ...then maybe 2040
Insolvency is still a risk, cash burn is out of control, profitability still a long way off, extremely competitive market, unstable margins, geopolitical uncertainty, etc. Nio is trading as it should be, a high risk growth stock, which means its trading on its potential and therefore attracts the dreamers to invest in it. "The Tesla of China" They have technology that can predict the future? What an insane comment. No one knows the future and you should know that Mr. Odd. Insurance companies play a game of probabilities and that is nothing new and their new modeling technology will never be 100% As misguidedly exuberant as you were on Nio before you are as equally pessimistic now. This maybe a good sign to enter Nio now or perhaps they go bankrupt tomorrow. The point is no one knows and its always been that way.
Disagree with your comments on Nio. I am not pessimistic now. We learned a lesson. Yes, they can do modeling that helps them predict the future. Insurance companies do work on probabilities, but use simulations and models to manage their risks.
So why waste any time investing or doing anything else for that matter? Your saying the whole point in life should be obtaining this modeling software so all can predict the future and be successful. This is crazy!
I've been attempting to help you with the math for a long while now. NIO is lying to you. If you believe that only 60 swaps a day will make a swap station break even then you are not living in reality. If it costs around $10 per swap, then that is only $600. In China, that might cover the operational costs for the day. It will not help to pay off the investment in the batteries and the station itself. $600 will cover land rental/lease, maintenance of the robotics, insurance, cleaning, employee compensations of the attendants and maintenance crews, etc. This is why their losses keep growing. They will need 200 swaps per day per station to reasonably begin to claw back their investment in battery stocks and the station build/install. I work in cleanrooms on robots all the time. It's the best environment that any mechanical system could ever hope for, but they break or need recalibration and maintenance. I can't imagine a filthy underbelly of a winter vehicle sitting above my robots...and that filthy dripping battery being brought into the internal storage chamber. Cleaning has to be a huge issue. Good luck.
According to recent reports, Nio averages around 80,000 battery swaps per day at their swap stations, with some sources mentioning figures between 79,000 and 80,000 swaps daily.
@@TeslaDo_d if u use swap u need to lease a battery which monthly payment for 5-6years pays off gap for non lease battery model u need to calculate rent to your calculations
Nio's CFO has estimated breakeven at $60-70 per day which is what Odd is saying. Breakeven is all we need right now as the network is massive in China and this unique charging network brings incredible value added to a brand that makes high quality cars. Cars are the product. Not swap stations. So with Swap breakeven, we will then look forward to additional profit as the network grows exponentially via swap partnerships like Chery. And respectfully, while your clean room analogy is interesting, it does not in fact equate to expertise on swap station maintenance. I trust that Nio engineering is factoring challenges like this into design and PM, cleaning SOP, etc. Good luck? If that is your sign off, may I suggest watching videos about Nio Stock is a waste of your time. You sound incredibly smart... but don't outsmart yourself and don't waste your energy here if you don't buy into this business model.
You can't tell a Nio bull anything or you are labeled a short it's their security blanket. I think this company's technology is awesome, but that didn't keep me from selling it at $50 on the way down in 2021. CATL and Nio for all the roses of swap biz. I'm watching to see how Chery this model sells because if it doesn't that is a horrible harbinger. I'll sit this one out for now i've waited almost 4 years since I sold I can wait a bit longer
@@tcraig9831 It's sad really because there is not a single institutional investor bag holding like retail is to this junk. True I am short and I've been short from the $7. But that does not mean I enjoy ppl getting burned on this junk. I like the tech. Enron was a great idea too. 🤣🤣
@@FinTra_ I've never short of a stock in my life, but I certainly know how to recognize short targets. I bought Nio along with Carvana, Netflix and peloton during the Covid pump those are always generational times to make a lot of money. Having said that I'm farther from buying shares in Nio than I ever have been. They clearly will have to dilute again I'm not touching this until the smoke settles from that debacle.
@TheOddInvestor if you say so. All you have to do is a google sesrch. Even if it is not 48k, it is 11k, 10k. Does not matter it's still junk. Junk that you're pushing to ppl. A company that is 11 years old, losing 10s of thousands per car. How does that sound to you. Like a transfer of wealth to China?
Good times are coming. It’s a matter of how hard you can hold on.
What is worrying me is not how long I have been holding in the down turn, but the upside. Would I be able to hold until the $300 or $500 range!
V interesting, if it goes up when do we sell for profit ? Price range ?
Funny but true. Excellent comment.
Do you have nephews? If so, hold nio stock, they will appreiciate Nio at 5.1 in 2066
To reach 300$ they'd need to 76× their current market cap making them as big as byd. Byd is producing 4.2 million cars a year and Nio only 220k so there's very very long ways to go from there. It's more realsitic if when Nio becomes profitable if we hit the 135 billion market cap of 60$ again. That'd be a 14x return if you buy in now. Me personally I won't sell until I at least 4-5 my money and I'll hold out to see if it keep going up and the moment it loses a little steam sell.
@@vivaeuropagood plan , let’s hope it goes up in the first place 😂
Hey Odd let me give you the ultimate lesson. This is all you need to know. The analyst’s and all the financial people are not here for the average investors like us. They work for large corporations that are telling them what to do. So for years i have been either selling or holding when they say “buy”, and i have been buying when they say “sell”. And its worked to perfection.
Totally agree. I said it too many times that analysts works for their institutions. They have no obligations to retail investors or anyone else.
But, doing the exact opposite of what they say is very interesting.
Good comment
@ to do what I do you have to be an investor and not a trader, as it does take time. When they say sell, and I buy it’s usually 3-6 months when i see the benefits. Nio, is a different animal because although they have been around for 10 years, its still a start up, and they wouldn’t be shorting it so hard if they didn’t know it was going to be a monster. I do non aggressive calls with the stock and with all the premium money i get i just buy more shares.
MMM!
@@sennaha That guy is an absolute childish clown.He is immature, blocks people who have different oppinions.Sad watching a grown man behaving like that.Also some big twitter guy turned him down for a video for christmas eve, but mmm arrogantly announced it before it was confirmed.i dont know who is a bigger clown mmm or mr P
@David_Financial sounds good. Thanks for sharing
You're right about NIO, all the fundamentals are fantastic, you were just wrong about level a stock can be manipulated by institutions, and the adverse effects of geopolitics and hype etc. NIO will still do well, but they pushed out the timeframe longer than anyone imagined possible!
Totally agree
AMD going the same way - strong fundamentals - good future - but manipulated by so called Analysts so its crashing - and lots of shorts by big investors...
I'm holding on to my shares long term even if it goes to zero. Won't be the first time I have had a stock go to zero. I am stubborn as well and usually wrong.
Same here, but Nio is a great company in the making
The emphasis on having a clear exit strategy is crucial, especially after experiencing the volatility of previous bull and bear markets. It’s refreshing to see the focus on setting realistic goals and understanding the why behind profit-taking. This approach not only prepares you for unexpected market shifts but also keeps you grounded during the emotional rollercoaster of trading. It’s a valuable reminder that crypto investing should ultimately serve our personal aspirations, rather than just becoming a game of chasing numbers. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around $200k to a decent 7 figures in the space of a few months...Thanks to Francine Duguay insights, daily trade signals, and my dedication to learning, I've been increasing my daily earnings. Kudos to the journey ahead!
She's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name
Francineduguay
The pump and dump has been a perfect eyeopener for us all to really see how unpredictable the market can be and the need for us to be trading not just seat and hodl.
Got a chance to benefit from her services a few weeks ago and it has been a very smooth experience.
Thank you…. I have searched her up Google I think I am satisfied with her experience.
Everyone just calm
Down, Nio will explode very soon, wait and see 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Good days will be here soon. Go NIO 🚀🚀🚀🔥🔥🔥
I hope so
We are watching the infancy of the EV Market and Industry.
No one knows the future for certain.
Nio is certainly positioned well to as you said...
1. Control expense via discipline and economy of Scale
2. Accelerate growth of production and sales
The most beautiful thing is that Nio can reach profitibility independently from the US Economy.
Why would Goldman Sachs invest in Nio? Meet with Nio...
Greed and Manipulation of course.
This stock is not going to zero.
It was run up with dumb money at $60/share.
Everything is going to work out.
I have faith. Let them short. Ill keep buying.
13,500 at $4.73
Absolutely true. But this is a lessons learned for the future
hi I think growth and revenue climbing , I think we all lost because of nios losses keep getting larger and larger , I think once losses narrow and get closer to profitability it will go up and quickly ,
Nio has the technology, they have the differentiation in models, swap , chips etc. they need to monetize these to break even, I f they can do that the stock takes off. Pretty simple, the difficult part is done
Agree
The problem is also that institutions don’t follow rules such as naked shorting. They have enough cash to short to oblivion.
Totally agree
Thnx 4 odd coverage of NIO 100% Wall Street plays the game. Will keep buying & holding NIO.... Til the NIO dynasty 🚀🚀🚀 to the 🌙
Excellent
Great respect for you Mr Odd next year when Nio reach $50 range i will come to Canada and invite you to dinner
Haha, thanks
Can I ask you 1 question? What is the difference if swap battery model is carried out by CATL and NIO?
Will make a video
We are with you Mr Odd i put 50% of my life savings into Nio only to see it evaporate to practically nothing. We invested in Nio at the wrong time unfortunately. Nio now leaves me with very sad regretable feelings. I gotta hold no choice
Totally agree with you
Me too my friend
My question is why Nio? Because this stock will threaten the industry?
Because of the great potential and huge retail investor interest
@@TheOddInvestorso how will WS play this? drive it down more, shake out retail investors? when spending & revenue both improve will things change? Is this a unique case with Nio? Has there been another company in similar situation in the past?
@ddjen11 they know retail investors love Nio, so it becomes attractive to them until it is done and forgotten
Nio market cap should 500 billion ❤️ when tesla deliver 500k 2020 tesla market cap was one trillion
Honestly byd sold 4 times more cars than Tesla last year and they're still behind half a billion in market cap. It doesn't matter how good Chinese Ev's do they'll probably always be beind Tesla simply because the communist Chinese government isn't as much of a desirable market to invest into like an American company. I'm just hoping Nio can reach like 200 billion by 2030 it's more realsitic
Teslas massive profit margins might have one reason to do with higher stock price.
@vivaeuropa it is not Chinese government....it is western investor who can make market it is nasdaq or nyse
All big players won't let Chinese stock go up easily
Do you think its better exit now or just keep waiting
I talked about this at the end of the video. This is just a big lessons learned for the future
Thanks, Ata. We do listen to you and most likely so do your children. Take care!
Thank you. I do take some time
You’re not wrong, you’re just early.
Totally agree
Time is more important than timing for retail investors, in particular in this case!
Thank you 🙏🏼
You hit it on the nail my friend ... they know as we know about NIO...they have the power in wealth to make money as they short it down for however long they wish...they accumulate more and more at the lowest price they can ...so we wait :)
Totally agree. Their advanced modeling and simulation capabilities help them make the decision when to stop shorting. It is all about maximizing their profits
Goldman Sachs and others have millions of Nio shares, and sure they could be greedy to put the price down and buy much more. It’s good time to buy and accumulate more, even if price will go down, still it’s too cheap to ignore 🎉
Totally agree. But the point is that financial institutions have advanced capabilities and can see a future picture that we can never see
@@TheOddInvestortesla deliver 500k 2020 market cap was one trillion dollar 💵 nio I hope deliver 500k 2025 why nio market 500b nio have swap ❤ should nio market cap end of 2025 atleast 250 billion dollar 💵
Ark made several mistakes. They sold NVDA right before the crazy ride. They stock was the worse performance since 2021.
True. Sometimes they sell Tesla too. But, regardless of their decision, they have advanced modeling capabilities that all other financial institutions should have too
@@TheOddInvestor I wonder why it's even a question that these institutions utilize Monte Carlo and other modeling capabilities. That's the whole point why I learned this in math/school, ...at least for a few days, then never again. Until now as a math-tutor. These methods are very powerful and there's no doubt in my mind that ALL insurance companies, banks, hedge-fonds and governments implement this into their daily work and decisions. All of them. Understandably so, since all they would get bankrupt if not. And this process is in place for hundred years now, I'm confident. Lessions: we have to think like them. Look at SoFi, their stock had the same problems and I was rewarded now for patients and due diligence. They cannot (and don't want to) hold it down forever, there will be an accumulation phase of institutional firms. And also, what people tend to forget: China's economy is challenged and needs to revive. Alibaba's stock looks almost the same as Nio's from a technical perspective.. ^_^
NIO has several major problems: 1) First they don't make a profit. 2) Second, the Chinese economy is imploding. 3) NIO has previously diluted shares and will most likely do it again. Closing comments: I do agree with you regarding the Shorts and strategy. Stop Buying and Hold your position assuming you have sufficient shares. If you're new to NIO, then consider establishing a small position at these levels. Maybe 500 shares, then DCA up if there's upward movement. Please do not listen anybody telling you to just keep buying! Especially, that other TH-camr...
good video. Thank you.
You are welcome!
When retail investors such as you capitulate thats a sign that the stock has hit rock bottom
True, but you did not watch the entire video
@@TheOddInvestor i did later. Agree
Great times ahead!
thank you for your honesty, however you should give yourself more credit :)
Thank you. Bitter lessons sometimes come little late
@@TheOddInvestor I would like to know your thoughts if the battery swap is still a moat - even though charging stations are getting faster? What are your thoughts Odd?
@atifakhtar3942 it is. Will make a video
@@TheOddInvestor thank you sir
The difference is: they have insider know how and we don't. Those people are in the same golf clubs and decide where big money is routed next. No magic, no future predictions. I think it really is that simple.
Golf clubs? Agree
But, I believe models and simulations are at the heart of their business
@@TheOddInvestor I think so too. The system is called "Aladdin" (as you most probably know). It controls EVERYTHING. It's basically Skynet :)
@@marcusfleuti2672 yes, they must use various systems. Cathie Wood uses Monte Carlo simulation
@@TheOddInvestor They are all connected with Aladdin. It's a huge ecosystem. They have to be. All banks, all those rating companies - everything is connected with Aladdin.
@marcusfleuti2672 Well that I did not know. Very interesting. Do you know why everyone should use the same ecosystem? I assume they are competitors.
I think people try to figure out reasons why the NIO sp is where it is.
If it was trading at $20, we wouldn’t even be having that discussion . It is very obvious that his manipulation. Haley stock movement is barcoding meaning only Algo are trading the stock mostly.
Rationalize the stock price is not possible as trading at a 1X obviously makes zero sense.
I believe there is a reason why each stock is at a given price.
Big guys want in.... I added today and will add below today's prices say it drops more.
Best of luck
Thank you 🙏
You are welcome
I added more today... I am over 18K shares price per share now $7.28 so way upside down here. I think the $8 target this year is going to happen. Investing is difficult if you are not a day trader or long term investor. I wish all happiness, and calmness as this is only MONEY, and health is the most important aspect of life.
Best of luck
@@TheOddInvestor Thank you, I am wishing the same for you, and all the current situations you are working through!
Did you ever went to china to see it yourself?
No
I agree with you on all accounts!!#
👍
Bought more and averaged down. I am here for 2 nore years. Waiting for profitable and make a big amount
Sounds great. Best of luck.
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Reality is - Many of us go after easy money totally ignoring the fundamentals and when the reality bites, we feel bad. Even now there are 100's of stocks with unrealistic PE ratios however NIO stock is hit on multiple fronts and only strong execution can pull the stock back and might take 24-36 months to recover. NIO is facing brutal local competition, they are losing lot of money on BaaS BTW is a strategic differentiator but might or might not yield returns( who can speculate tech changes in BaaS), Naked shorting, additional capital to stay afloat, geo tariff pressures, ability to launch in growth markets ( which in short term seems impossible). NIO I believe is still a very innovative company which will take off only after they become profitable and demonstrate that they can deliver consistently. Time will decide. Miracles might not happen
Totally agree with you. Waiting till Nio becomes profitable and demonstrate they can deliver consistently is not a good idea. It will be too late by then imo
Remember - last quarter they had the highest cash burn, it becomes easy for predators to keep pulling NIO down..
Same I was really wrong I sold Tesla at 180 and palntir for 9 dollars and I bout nio on average 7.60 what a big lost
I did not sell Nio.
Just hold it and buy more. In 12 months will double your money.
Hey Odd 🙏🏼 I haven’t heard this kind of uncertainty in Your voice a long time 😖 Just HOLD! Don’t think too much!
I feel it is a big lessons learned. I am recommending to hold
Nearly stopped watching because I thought you was waffling but a good conclusion big thumbs up
Thank you. Lots of negative comments because viewers did not watch the entire video
I hope NIO someday go up... I hope it will happen when NIO reach breakeven... But they scavenging NIO to atom level
Totally agree
I think Nio will do well and turn to profit in time so hopefully the stock price will improve. My main concern is with China and Taiwan issue. Somehow US need to improve relations with China and steer them off this course. I think we could still see some kind of sanction removing more Chinese stocks including baba, Nio and others. It's my main worry as I have a fairly large position in Nio.
Nice spring day in the GTA😂
Spring day? It is cold
Sitting in my boat in a t shirt in Vancouver.
The big boys have short time periods and must show a return every quarter if at all possible. I have no such handy cap and that is my advantage.
I think the general population will not switch to EV's until the fueling takes the same amount of time as a gasser. This is what NIO brings to the table. Charge times are getting cut down through battery break throughs, the delivery of huge amounts of power on holidays is the problem, they all slow down when everyone charges at once.
Totally agree
I've been around for awhile and the big dogs missed Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, personal computers, the internet, cell phones, Bitcoin, Etherium, Meta, Tesla, Nvidia, Palantir etc until they became mainstream and started printing money.
If they have software that can predict the future then they need to upgrade because their software sucks.
They do have modeling software such as Monte Carlo simulation as Cathie Wood already admitted a few years ago.
As far as the entry point, it is a strategic decision. The fact that they all behave the same way is proof that they work together.
They all do their analysis and are better than the average people, but in the end, they also make mistakes. The difference is that they can move markets because they buy millions and people follow them.
Totally agree. But, they have been right on controlling Nio
@TheOddInvestor They will always be right. The only thing we can do is wait for the time when nio explodes. It could take another 5 years. I have 3000 shares and waiting. Sometimes, great companies go through a lot of crap. The market takes money from the inpatient to the patient. You buy a share at 4 dollars, then it goes to 2 dollars, and 8 months later goes to 10. That is how it works when the company is good.
@@Lifesituations8000 it will be a lot sooner
Analyst? Or Scamalyst?
Time to crank up the excuse machine. Huawei Aito is already out selling the entire Nio line up and as among the most expensive. They are already massively profitable and as Nio bag holders continue to make excuses the gap is only going to widen
It's become a game of poker between shorts instis and retail. Who'll blink first real investors know what we have weak lose holders will miss out.
Totally ag
I think the onvo car is the perfect car for taxis just think how many millions of taxis in china and the rest of Asia,
Totally agree
It is ok, we will come back
Sure we will
So far, NIO battery swap business is not profitable.
Battery swapping is used to promote EV sales.
NIO battery swap business can be projected if you want to do a chart for us to show av swaps per station per day.
Currently and for the next 2 years, everything riding on increased EV sales.
Analysts, banks, insurance companies don't like to take on risk.
We need to blue chip sticks included in our portfolios.
Totally agree
There is really not much lower Nio stock can go, if we weather through this, we are going to be rich
True, but this is a lessons learned as to why we are at this $4 level.
@TheOddInvestor It's geopolitical more than anything else. If US and China have close ties, we will be looking at $20 for Nio stock
Thanks Mr. Odd. I wish they would make the front view of Firefly more beautiful.
It is a budget car. I like the design. But will see if it is appealing to customers
Doesn’t matter if you like the front or not as long as 5-10 thousand people do per month that is what matters. 😊
@ Not just me, kido many people didn't like the front view
@@EAGLE-34- You also know lots of people hate the model Y design too yet its the highest selling automotive on the market. Like I said as long as 5-10 thousand people like it enough to buy it every month your personal taste or mine for that matter doesn’t matter. Also the firefly is not the make it or break it product ONVO is.
I recommend reading basic books on investing fellas! This was all pretty dang predictable :/ Nio 1500 deliveries, what's the excuse gonna be this time?
Nio ll be #1🚀🚗🌛$$$$$%%%=🚗$$$👍 i $29share.
hellooooooooooooo odd investor EY ....
Sens❤❤❤stock 500x
you said you might have too little information - indeed, you have too little information particularly about Zeekr, your assessment is lacking relevant facts (I am not a financial analyst, I am a market and tech analyst)
Zeeker??? What is so special about it?
@ you are showing substantial emotions, this is not the ideal ground for research and to analyze. My position is not about Zeekr being „special“, it is about analyzing market, tech, particularly the surrounding of the brand, strategies, and such. If you do so, you would come to the conclusion you might not want to compare NIO with Zeekr, since their base, strategy, tech, and structure are completely different. Yes, the model line-up is showing some similarities but so do other brands and models.
when nio stops growing as a company, i will stop buying NIO shares
I think the price is amazing. But, what do I know
Been looking around that xpeng cars doing very well at least much better than nio u can actually compare it to tesla and lot of people choosing xpeng 😅
Xpeng its cheap junk, only a 🤡 like you compare it to a premium brand like NIO
The USA continually loses money, and they raise the debt ceiling! If they take every line item and cut 5% off every line. Nio very similar
Makes sense, but Nio believes in investing early rather than later. Painful but rewarding in the future
@@TheOddInvestorThey have surely spent plenty of money, if they can now get the stock price up for a while they can raise money and not dilute so excessively. At some point shareholders need to be rewarded, otherwise no matter what they do, they will not succeed
So many new EV Chinese manufactures now for NIO to compete with 1+1=2
Or 2+2 = 0
Mr. Odd, we as investors only care about the stock price. It is the bottom line. Stock price is based on perception and manipulation. Who cares if NIO makes a boat load of money, but the stock price still at $4/share.
True, but the point is why the sp is squeezed to $4
I would never make fun of you or mock you. However all your reasons regarding NIO no matter how valid or true, the market is irrational and does not care. The best we can do is ride on the coat tails of big institutions. They absolutely know with their advanced models and artificial intelligence when to sell and when to buy. So as a retail investor follow their lead or just invest in ETF funds and call it a day. Its a hard lesson for me also!
Totally agree
Nio need to upgrade their cars.they look old .byd selling $10 k and look luxurious than nio
Nio upgrades its vehicles too often. NT3 is coming soon
Financial institution looking for a profitable company
Is Rivian profitable? How about Lucid? Xpeng? Zeeker?
You have lost the absolute plot pal
I am not sure what you mean. But, this is lessons learned.
I think that you are too naive - for sure these companies pay a lot of money for analysts and data scientists to predict NIO future!
I think you did not watch the video
NIO is indeed not correct price, way too low.
👍
respectfully, i think u still got it wrong! it's all about numbers not emotions!
xpev , li and zk is more efficient and profitable. it's not conspiracy!
watch how good and efficient Xpeng compare to NIO
video title : Xpeng's insane Tesla-like production speed has transformed the company
th-cam.com/video/rtbm-rfwF_E/w-d-xo.html
@@assem8754🤡🤡 Xpeng sell cheap junk cars with low margin.
You may be right. We will wait and see
Odd investors subject was not about emotions at all. Indeed it was about (for us unknown) numbers that resilt from his mentionrd simulations.
@@assem8754 The F3 Factory from Nio will be ready soon, this factory can produce 1 million cars. So with F1 and F2 right now they are doing car sales of 221,970. All the productions problems and speed issues when the state of the art F3 starts in June. Will you wait till June to buy Nio stock ?- Lol we have not even discussed Nio strategic advantages of their own Chip which is the same performance as Nividia's latest chip plus the swap station advantage. The silly analyst which is downplaying NIO has an obvious hidden agenda- buy for their personal gains while Nio is dirt cheap that at PE much lesser than her competition.
When you said Nio has infrastructure, I assume you meant swap stations, but aren't you forgetting that unlike Tesla, Nio doesn't own any charging piles. To put thing in perspective, Nio has about 3000 swap stations and there are about 12 million charging piles in China. Also, the actual cost of adding power to an EV via charging will most certainly be cheaper than via swapping.
Furthermore, with ever improving battery charging curve and likely closer proximity to charging piles, the time advantage of swapping will become minimal, if any.
Nio has more charging piles than Tesla in China. In fact Tesla is a customer
🤡🤡🤡
Listening to Kathy woods is never good.
Cathie Wood was used as an example of the application of advanced modeling
For nio to go up it needs to be in profit, atm it's losing money. Maybe it makes money from battery swap but it's a long way . Only time will tell. Coupled with tension of china hikes on import of 60% , there are hardly any buyers at these levels . There's no big money coming in. Then there are many other car companies e.g. vw, BMW etc that trade at x1 pe ratio. Only outlier is tesla as its seen tech , fsd, hype of elon. But hope nio goes up in long term just prob not in the short term. It's also launching in uk? So that will be good
Xpeng is up and not profitable
NIO is done Sorry
No. Nio is the star
🤡🤡🤡
@@TheOddInvestor hope you are right....but if you are it won't happen for YEARS and YEARS
@robertp7410 not that long
@@TheOddInvestor NIO to the moon was supposed to happen in 2021 2022 2023 2024 So what year do you think it is going to happen IMO NIO will never see 60 again AND IF IT DID ...then maybe 2040
Insolvency is still a risk, cash burn is out of control, profitability still a long way off, extremely competitive market, unstable margins, geopolitical uncertainty, etc. Nio is trading as it should be, a high risk growth stock, which means its trading on its potential and therefore attracts the dreamers to invest in it. "The Tesla of China"
They have technology that can predict the future? What an insane comment. No one knows the future and you should know that Mr. Odd. Insurance companies play a game of probabilities and that is nothing new and their new modeling technology will never be 100% As misguidedly exuberant as you were on Nio before you are as equally pessimistic now. This maybe a good sign to enter Nio now or perhaps they go bankrupt tomorrow. The point is no one knows and its always been that way.
Disagree with your comments on Nio. I am not pessimistic now. We learned a lesson.
Yes, they can do modeling that helps them predict the future.
Insurance companies do work on probabilities, but use simulations and models to manage their risks.
So why waste any time investing or doing anything else for that matter? Your saying the whole point in life should be obtaining this modeling software so all can predict the future and be successful. This is crazy!
@@sharpshot6111🤡🤡🤡
I've been attempting to help you with the math for a long while now. NIO is lying to you. If you believe that only 60 swaps a day will make a swap station break even then you are not living in reality. If it costs around $10 per swap, then that is only $600. In China, that might cover the operational costs for the day. It will not help to pay off the investment in the batteries and the station itself.
$600 will cover land rental/lease, maintenance of the robotics, insurance, cleaning, employee compensations of the attendants and maintenance crews, etc. This is why their losses keep growing. They will need 200 swaps per day per station to reasonably begin to claw back their investment in battery stocks and the station build/install. I work in cleanrooms on robots all the time. It's the best environment that any mechanical system could ever hope for, but they break or need recalibration and maintenance. I can't imagine a filthy underbelly of a winter vehicle sitting above my robots...and that filthy dripping battery being brought into the internal storage chamber. Cleaning has to be a huge issue. Good luck.
Your math is wrong. The video is not about battery swap expenses. You did not watch the video
According to recent reports, Nio averages around 80,000 battery swaps per day at their swap stations, with some sources mentioning figures between 79,000 and 80,000 swaps daily.
@@TeslaDo_d if u use swap u need to lease a battery which monthly payment for 5-6years pays off gap for non lease battery model u need to calculate rent to your calculations
Service comfort is the key. It is like when you order food. You can pick it up yourself, why order it, and pay 20 dollars in fees and 10 in food?
Nio's CFO has estimated breakeven at $60-70 per day which is what Odd is saying.
Breakeven is all we need right now as the network is massive in China and this unique charging network brings incredible value added to a brand that makes high quality cars.
Cars are the product. Not swap stations.
So with Swap breakeven, we will then look forward to additional profit as the network grows exponentially via swap partnerships like Chery.
And respectfully, while your clean room analogy is interesting, it does not in fact equate to expertise on swap station maintenance. I trust that Nio engineering is factoring challenges like this into design and PM, cleaning SOP, etc.
Good luck?
If that is your sign off, may I suggest watching videos about Nio Stock is a waste of your time.
You sound incredibly smart... but don't outsmart yourself and don't waste your energy here if you don't buy into this business model.
To the bag holders 🫡🫡🫡🫡: 48k USD loss per car. Does this sound like a car company that should be above 0.2 cents a share?????
You can't tell a Nio bull anything or you are labeled a short it's their security blanket. I think this company's technology is awesome, but that didn't keep me from selling it at $50 on the way down in 2021. CATL and Nio for all the roses of swap biz. I'm watching to see how Chery this model sells because if it doesn't that is a horrible harbinger. I'll sit this one out for now i've waited almost 4 years since I sold I can wait a bit longer
@@tcraig9831 It's sad really because there is not a single institutional investor bag holding like retail is to this junk. True I am short and I've been short from the $7. But that does not mean I enjoy ppl getting burned on this junk. I like the tech. Enron was a great idea too. 🤣🤣
@@FinTra_ I've never short of a stock in my life, but I certainly know how to recognize short targets. I bought Nio along with Carvana, Netflix and peloton during the Covid pump those are always generational times to make a lot of money. Having said that I'm farther from buying shares in Nio than I ever have been. They clearly will have to dilute again I'm not touching this until the smoke settles from that debacle.
You don't enjoy ppl getting burnt, but you enjoy spreading false information
@TheOddInvestor if you say so. All you have to do is a google sesrch. Even if it is not 48k, it is 11k, 10k. Does not matter it's still junk. Junk that you're pushing to ppl. A company that is 11 years old, losing 10s of thousands per car. How does that sound to you. Like a transfer of wealth to China?