Never had any questions about the offense. I think they'll be in the top 10. Defense will be better and bullpen is good. Starting pitching is and will be the biggest question mark. I'm still hoping that the Red Sox sign Montgomery which should help the rotation a ton but we'll see. 2 weeks until camp opens so will see what happens.
as time goes by and he isnt signed a guy like snell or montgomery may be willing to take a shorter term deal. sox would be much more likely to risk 2 years@ 30 per year on a guy like snell. and maybe close to the same for montgomery. both would be awesome but thats a lot to ask. but a snell montgomery,giolito, bello and either crawford or pivetta? and whoever the odd man out is is the long man? along with what they have for arms in the bullpen and in the minors they are suddenly a solid team!
As someone on the sox grounds crew I appreciate this video. I think the offense certainly has potential for real impact, but after seeing how poor the defense was its hard to trust their overall strength. Part of me really just thinks we need a couple quality pitching and fielding stars, but who knows if management has the pockets for it.
I think there is a chance we can be better but we need a lot more from Bello and Giolito than what they did last year like you said. I’m very nervous about the defense with the corner infield I don’t want that to hurt this team. Lastly we need to keep up what we did on offense from last year and I hope that O’Neil and Grissom can make it even better
@@redseatradio only mean i have very little confidence in espn. Can this team do better than expected, absolutely, the problem is for that to happen things have to go very right, The advantage of building teams like the dodgers and braves is they dont have to have everything go right to win 95+ games and win their divisions
The bats will bang, the defense should be at least closer to avg, the pen has the tools to succeed, and you've got a rotation of players with a decent floor and a good ceiling. This team has potential, and it's not THAT far-fetched either. It's easy to be upset at the FO and messaging this off season, especially bc if they sold it upfront as "we think that there's a lot of progress coming out of our young core, we want to have those spots open for them to prove it, and if we have a hole at the deadline we'll plug it" There would be less general anger right now. Would it have pissed people off? Yes but not any more than they are over the mixed signals this off season, but then at least we'd have more time to deal with the emotions of that. Instead it's like a month to ST and now the people are mad bc of the admittance at winter weekend. If that happens in Nov then the vibe this month is better even if it woulda been worse a few months ago. Leave it to FSG to not make the investment tho lol
Good video. Agree with you on the offense. That's why I find Red Sox owners frustrating about not spending more on the starting pitching. If they can spend 3 billion to invest in PGA tour, then they can afford 25 million a year for Snell or Montgomery. PS. Happy 🎂 birthday, bro.
Excellent summary. There was also an excellent article on this by John Tomase last week where he pointed out that everything has to go right for this to happen - and it probably won't. The lineup I can see being good, the defense can't be as bad again but whether it will be that good is another matter (Devers and Casas have to improve.) As you point out the rotation has to play to its maximum. Some improvement from Bello and Crawford, Giolito turning back the clock, Whitlock (better out of the pen IMHO) staying healthy, Pivetta proving a consistent starter, Houck would also be better in the pen in my opinion - and no injuries? It is a very big ask and cover is very thin, unless the likes of Gonzales proves ready. We really still need a quality starting pitcher.
Corbin ... Your absolutely spot on about pointing out how the offensive projection numbers prop up the overall evaluation value of the Red Sox being a "breakout team" this upcoming season ... Trevor Story being the everyday shortstop definitely improves the defense considerably provided that he can stay on the field ... Craig Breslow, Andrew Bailey and Justin Willard should make a positive impact on the team's pitching performance ... Marcelo Meyer, Kyle Teel and Roman Anthony still have a stint at Worcester ahead of them ... I also doubt that John Henry will provide the dollars needed for Breslow to acquire Jordan Montgomery whose addition would greatly improve their wildcard berth chances in 2024 ... Realistically as you have wisely analyzed, I also think they are still a year or two away of becoming a legitimate breakout AL playoff contender ...
I totally agree that this team has a lot of potential. I'm excited for the season and for our young pitchers to grow working with Andrew Bailey. I don't see us as a last place team at all. Don't forget the 2013 Red Sox were predicted to finish in last...and they did shock the world by winning the World Series 😅
I think that it’s the most frustrating thing for me is that this team is not that far away. Lots of talent however , Look how the expectations have plummeted! Red Sox slightly over .500 how the mighty have fallen. They have got to acquire a top of the rotation type guy for this to work in my opinion. Also it’s the division..AL beast AL best AL East ..navigate that with Gialito as your ace? Good luck!
I think it would be Bello as the ace at this point tbh, and you aren't wrong based on everything they are really close to being competitive especially with the young core.
@@redseatradio I hope if they stand with this roster they give the ball to Bello opening day. Super stoked about the corners Devers and Casas challenge anybody to find a young duo with more potential.
@@markmccarthy7887 Remember last year? It seemed like Bello struggled to pitch during day games for some reason. I hope he corrected that this offseason.
I totally agree. I have the feeling that the current lineup can do a lot of damage. I just think that ownership needs to get Jordan Montgomery and then I'll feel a lot more comfortable going into the season.
I don't understand where ESPN is coming from with this prediction, and I don't see it. Starting pitching is the big question mark with the 2024 Red Sox. Regarding the young talent in the pipeline, little of it is pitching. Pitching is key.
We all know it’s always Pitching Pitching, Pitching. They have a good bullpen, for them to win over 80 games they need O’Neil, Grissom, Abreu, & Duran to have better than average seasons. Rotation and depth is a weakness I just don’t see those 5 making 20-25 starts - we can hope and I know I’ll be watching- Thanks Corbin.
Corbin, I recently did a comparison to Max Scherzer and Kutter Crawford's 2023 seasons. If you haven't checked, I really think Andrew Bailey can spark something with him. Super under the radar.
My ouija board predicts a RS World Series too! This off-season is getting painful. The RS are going back to the 1950s RS days of non-contending days where they were considered a non-factor. In my over 45 years of RS watching, I have never a more pitiful RS sight except for 2020 season which was a necessary evil. Even in their crappy seasons such as 2014+5, the management tried something.
As a lifelong Red Sox fan, this might be the most positive spin on this terrible looking opening day team that I've seen, but I'll roll with it lol. It also doesn't hurt that you can get tickets against the Orioles and the guardians at the first home stand for $17. Now you know the pink hats are gone, and the tickets aren't over inflated because all of the fair weather fans are gone at least until the weather gets nice and we're fighting for a wild card spot.
I feel there's too much pressure on the young guys to breakout and this kind of "all our eggs in one basket" approach is going to be mocked even further years down the line with the ownership's philosophy if they don't all meet these expectations. It's also hard to get excited about them when they don't wanna give them a solid veteran core to fall back on when previous stars had a stronger veteran presence. Ownership is also way too cheap to KEEP them in their primes if they DO all make it. Bello has great potential but he shouldn't be expected to be the #1 in the rotation to start the year. They're doing him a disservice by not getting another high end starter. Casas and Duran should be better this year too, but still do deserve another bat to complement this step forward they're expected to do. What happens if some of these young guys get injured? Who did they fall back on? There should be more space for them to allow them to be the young players they are that are still developing instead of trying to already market them as the future stars and savior of the team. The Red Sox aren't a bad team, a few quality signings (Mainly Soler and Monty) and they can have huge momentum to surprise a lot of people. However, I think this approach isn't as "sustained winning" or whatever ownership claims as they think it is and I think some of these predictions are eating up some of the hype that they've pushed.
Agree on most points aside from Duran. I like him as a player but also think that at his age, he is what he is. I could 110% be wrong and if he improves I'd be hyped, but I think his reliance on speed and producing against righties kinda caps his ceiling. He also had a .381 BABIP last year which isn't going to be replicated easily, even with his speed factor. He is a relatively high K% guy with less power than meets the eye. Last year was his best year and his HR% was 2.2....the same as Verdugo's career HR% who strikes out 10% less and walks 1.5% better. His glove isn't anything special either unfortunately.
@173jaSon371 not necessarily wrong Jason. But if Duran is what he is and his last year is what he looks like for the nextlike 3 tears that’s a damn good player
I guess you can look at it like a high risk high reward type of deal The antics the ownership have done are kind of genius in awful way. For them? Not only have they kept their wallets closed but they've played with people's emotions in almost a rage baity way that draws headline after headline to add more attention to a team they haven't gave much attention to. I imagine if they finish in a very similar spot this year this will be the same plan as it will sell until people just don't care that they've moved into this small market mindset.@@redseatradio
Personally, I feel like the Red Sox didn't really know what to do with him until last year and now they know how to utilize him better. I feel like that will help him flourish more even if his outright performance is about the same@@173jaSon371
Nicely done Corbin. I do think we are going to be much better than last year. If they have the smarts to replace Verdugo in right field with Wilyer Abreu his performance will go down as the big surprise of the season. I think he will tear the ball apart ! It could give the offense a huge boost along with Trevor being back helping both defense and offense. I would not be surprised to see the team win 87 games or so. I am still hoping for a magical Montgomery signing. The youngsters in the system are playing very well. I don't think our top 3 are that far off and who knows? In a pinch one or two could come up during the second half of the season if needed in an emergency situation perhaps. I am hoping to see Wikelman Gonzalez advance up the ranks with that fastball that tops out around 96/97 mph. I have dreams of that guy joining forces with Bello eventually. :) I know we have the prospects in the minors and have improved at the major league level as well. I am very willing to be patient. We also have a great pitching coach now and Breslow is a former pitcher as well. The team is obviously going to be redefined with a heavy emphasis and focus on pitching. That works for me. I am very optimistic. Willing to accept it might take some time but I know we are in a better place than last season. Happy birthday Corbin.
Thats the problem with this projection. They weigh everything together. The offense has the potential to be really good, but the pitching has very little room for error and that will drag them down.
Interesting commentary! I thought the rookies were really good when they were inserted into the rotation. Crawford had to be stretched out since he started as a receiver, so it took time for him to be consistent in the rotation. Bello was special when he pitched. I saw him make adjustments on the mound when he had to get control of the game. Houck was looking good after 5 innings just before he hit in the face. Whitlock was heart. They say he's healthy. Let's see if that's actually the case. Winchowski will be competing for a starting job as well. So it looks like we have lots of starters. My view in that Whitlock and Winchowski will be used in the bullpen for long relief.
I believe DraftKings has the Red Sox at 79.5 over under wins. I'm starting to think maybe I'll take the over I thought the under would be easy this year but I don't know what to expect from this team. There's so many guys that could have went for and guys they could have got, they didn't really take care of any needs in a way that improves the team, it'll be interesting to see how it looks like a Frankenstein lineup. Also the pitching staff could have really used a boost on the front and back end. Why not go after someone like Bauer who's in Japan but throwing good and always ready to play. Not only would he put fans in the seats, I think he could be a decent picture, maybe 16 wins sub 4 ERA. I know it sounds crazy but I would feel a lot better with another good starting picture, someone who can really lock it down in the 7th and eighth inning and then another nice corner bat, I know I'm wishing for quite a bit here maybe two out of the three and will be competitive. I just want the games and July and August to matter and not be 20 games out after the break.
I would be very interested in What the report considers a breakout team, is it just having a better record than last year, making the playoffs and so forth. Just having a better record should not make your team a breakout team. They can finish with 82 wins and still come in last place in the East. I really like that you explained the weighting system of the formula and how it hides the deficiencies and highlights the strengths. This happens as well with how they rate the farm systems too. We have the #10 overall system, but the breakdown is #3 in positional players and # 29 in pitching. I don't think this team will be a breakout team, way too many questions, and they may take a step back this year compared to last when you compare everything. They talked about how it takes a prospect a few years (3-4) to really make an impact giving the examples of Bogarets, Devers, Pedroia and Garciappara, and how it took multiple leaders on each team to get them to where they needed to go. We don't currently have those types here anymore (Turner would have been one, but he's in Toronto now). Your optimism is amazing, I just wished the RedSox could provide what is needed to help that out more.
I'm disappointed about Turner but not surprised. Pitching is going to be a problem. They still have a chance to improve but there's no evidence of that happening. Happy birthday 🎂
they seem to have found an answer to the shortstop issue. devers will be back. they need to find an answer at 1st. the rotation will look better when pivetta gets back. even with the injuries they are still not falling that far behind!
ok so it sounds good and as you said if we have a hot month things could look a whole lot better, but equally we could have a month that stinks and go the other way too. offence? dont have an issue looking pretty good, Pitching? i have everything crossed on that front and finally defence? we can only hope its better than last year. the biggest problem for me is that we are not the only ones to see that prediction. so will the front office and it might say to them that we dont need to get someone else and that for me is the very scary bit
Yup your right. If the Sox stay healthy and are properly coached they can be a formidable force to be dealt with. We may not have the big monster bats like other teams but we have the ability to play old fashioned station to station offense if your getting hits your scoring runs. Im tired of negative thinking about our Sox. We can be a team that others can respect. Truck day is coming soon. Hope the diocese of Boston can send a priest to bless it on its journey to florida.
The past couple of tears the offense would show up only to not show up, to me there has been minimal improvement. The rotation, about the same. the bullpen, bullpen are volatile, and possibility of being worse. The one strength is having several able to go 2-3 if not more innings.
I just don’t understand the “not ready” argument they’re trying to say. The lineup and bullpen are pretty good. All they need is SP’s and I’d put them in the playoff picture. If they sign Monty and Ryu, it wouldn’t be out of the question that they finish in 2nd in the division
The lineup looks like a good one. Still think a starter would make a big difference. That being said every team in baseball no matter the payroll or star players all start with a ?????? The game is made up of intangible factors. injuries, guys who under perform whatever. 162 game season wears on the best teams. As last year with the Padres, the Mets, etc so yes this team could break out and be better than many say so well see. Breslow could surprise us yet. Time to get hyped and root loud and strong for our Red Sox!! The hell with the owners our guys deserve we the fans to be behind them for all they do to try and win for them and all of us. Go Red Sox!!!
We need an ace in the rotation to compete in our loaded division. If we were in the central division I would say we are going to make the playoffs 😂 our pitching is weak hopefully they step up . I want to win now baby!!
There’s no doubt the offense is at least top 15 potential top 10. Defense should improve from last year. However like everyone I have heavy doubt about the pitching staff. I just feel like too much has to go right all while staying healthy. I feel like the depth is lacking although they said they would improve it. All it takes is 2-3 starters going down and now they’re scrambling for capable starters to give them 4-5 innings and end up exhausting their bullpen every night. I personally would like to see a lower tier starter like Clevinger added to fill the fifth spot and have Houck and Whitlock in the bullpen until there’s an injury. I do think the bullpen will be solid even if they deal Kenley. They have plenty of depth options as relievers and I feel like Martin would be a fine closer for this season or put Whitlock back there. I’m also high on Slaten from the rule 5 and think he can be a valuable piece to that bullpen that can eat a few innings if needed. Overall I think it’s possible they sneak into the WC but do have doubts about how much I think needs to go in their favor
Water finds its level. Water finds its level. What Yankees fans on Yahoo sports. Or Yahoo Fans on Yankees sports. I havent decided yet. What I have decided, though is that most successful MLB team seasons follow the same bell curve. When you look at the Dodgers and it wasn't the effect of 2020 in a vacuum that makes people hate on them. But they had much better teams that had to go the full 162. The world series of 2020 would have been at the median of the season mileage-wise.
I think it’s a kooky metric. I see the path for contention but this club is relying on like 70th percentile outcome to try to get to the postseason every year. We’ve been relatively healthy. When the rest of the league have multiple TJs we haven’t had one since 2020. If Bailey and Willard are force multipliers for the pitching staff and just by way of eliminating Kluber and the DFA guys we lose about -3.5war. If we can stay healthy and there are some gains our offense can be solid like last year but not great. Pitching staff may be solid but not great. Hopefully bullpen steals some games and you’re in it. Still feels like a 75-80 win team if we’re being realstic but if everything breaks you might get to 90
Redsox will finish in last place again in 2024. We don’t have the pitching. Just 1 number 1 would make a big difference. But the way it’s looking atm. That’s not going to happen.
I don't know anything about this guy's report or whatever... The way I see it, the offense will probably be good, but keep in mind a lot of the guys we are depending on in the lineup are injury prone. Sure, they could have a healthy, comeback season, or they could be on the IL before June. And unless the Red Sox get more innings from their starters this season, the bullpen will just get worn down again.
Good pitching beats good hitting and it's questionable with this staff. They won't make a deal or signing to improve it. The defense must improve. The hitting is ok....... only time will tell. A real team leader Justin Turner signs with Toronto......that hurts! Sometimes I get a head ache trying to figure this management out .
They are way off. The Red Sox will be just as bad this year. John Henry needs to sell the team to an owner that wants to win. These past 4 years have been a disgrace. These idiots never should have traded Mookie Betts. That was the dumbest move since the Babe Ruth trade. I hope they fall apart every year. I dont even watch them anymore. I know some good little league players that are better than their infielders. Boycott the Red Sox. Maybe John Henry will sell.
why? because its ESPN! they will score runs! maybe lots of runs if the younger players step it up as i think they will. the starting pitching remains the issue. the bullpen is good and could be great if they found a couple of starters . they could then put guys like houck in the bullpen and have a shot at having a great bullpen.
if they feel like they have a chance hitters,especially younger players will try much harder and older players may see it as their last chance to get to the WS. where if many play but dont go overboard so as to not to get hurt and some are playing for a contract! hitting can be contagious especially if the team is winning. that was kinda how it was in 1975 where before the season they werent given much chance. but the guys like lynn and rice started hitting and it sorta set the whole team on fire!
if a few guys like casas and abreu and a few others start hitting like many feel they can it will inspire others like devers to try harder. they have a lot of players that have the ability to hit a ton. it doesnt need to be homeruns a guy like grissom could easily be a great doubles hitter at fenway. his flyball pattern is tailor made for fenway. kinda like a mike lowell was. or pedroia. will he be pedroia at second ? maybe with coaching he could be good at second. baltimore didnt have a lot of superstars on their team but they did well last year!
@@davidbosworth4751 yeah I think the offense will play really well. I have a lot of faith in the young core. And honestly I have faith in the young pitching as well. The problem with that is there is some wiggle room with the lineup, there is little to no room in the rotation.
If we look at this realistically and not through Rose colored glasses the team is awful on paper on the field and worse then last season they got rid of their best pitcher from last season in Chris Sale and are without 2 of their best offensive players from last season in Justin Turner & Adam Duvall they will finish in last place and their heralded prospects none of them will even make it to Fenway this season. It’s not pessimism it’s reality
Click bait lol, I agree about one side bring up the whole though I've been looking at farm rankings and we are top 5 overall but that's because we are #2 for players and #29 for pitching
You are the positivity engine we all need. Happy birthday!
Glad I could help and thanks!
@@redseatradio its true Corbin. So many fan type podcasts do nothing but complain.
Never had any questions about the offense. I think they'll be in the top 10. Defense will be better and bullpen is good. Starting pitching is and will be the biggest question mark. I'm still hoping that the Red Sox sign Montgomery which should help the rotation a ton but we'll see. 2 weeks until camp opens so will see what happens.
Yeah it’s all about the rotation right now
@@redseatradiolosing turner hurts though
@OwenSaltzman-Amigone doesn’t help
as time goes by and he isnt signed a guy like snell or montgomery may be willing to take a shorter term deal. sox would be much more likely to risk 2 years@ 30 per year on a guy like snell. and maybe close to the same for montgomery. both would be awesome but thats a lot to ask. but a snell montgomery,giolito, bello and either crawford or pivetta? and whoever the odd man out is is the long man? along with what they have for arms in the bullpen and in the minors they are suddenly a solid team!
@davidbosworth4751 yeah yeah it is. Question is will it happen
Happy Birthday, Corbin! Your Red Seat Radio chair really glows on the wall!
I have a meeting tonight, but I'll drop in to tonight's session.
Thanks! Yeah I love it!
Hope the Red Sox do slightly better in 2024 then in 2023!
Hopefully!
As someone on the sox grounds crew I appreciate this video. I think the offense certainly has potential for real impact, but after seeing how poor the defense was its hard to trust their overall strength. Part of me really just thinks we need a couple quality pitching and fielding stars, but who knows if management has the pockets for it.
Glad you enjoyed it! Gotta say you guys do an absolutely incredible job!
I think there is a chance we can be better but we need a lot more from Bello and Giolito than what they did last year like you said. I’m very nervous about the defense with the corner infield I don’t want that to hurt this team. Lastly we need to keep up what we did on offense from last year and I hope that O’Neil and Grissom can make it even better
Yeah it’s just a ton of what ifs
Espn also thinks the WNBA is the best league ver
That’s an unbelievably dumb take
@@redseatradio only mean i have very little confidence in espn. Can this team do better than expected, absolutely, the problem is for that to happen things have to go very right, The advantage of building teams like the dodgers and braves is they dont have to have everything go right to win 95+ games and win their divisions
Oh yeah🎉 happy birthday to you 🎂 nice job as always thanks
They can’t finish last again. No way
Would be brutal
Love the perspective and giving us some hope! Just got my tickets for Opening Day & Patriot’s Day and really hoping for a better year!
Star players have to start somewhere. That said we all agree starting pitching is key. Good stuff man!
I keep thinking that. Every top talent in baseball was at one point an unproven commodity
The bats will bang, the defense should be at least closer to avg, the pen has the tools to succeed, and you've got a rotation of players with a decent floor and a good ceiling. This team has potential, and it's not THAT far-fetched either. It's easy to be upset at the FO and messaging this off season, especially bc if they sold it upfront as
"we think that there's a lot of progress coming out of our young core, we want to have those spots open for them to prove it, and if we have a hole at the deadline we'll plug it"
There would be less general anger right now. Would it have pissed people off? Yes but not any more than they are over the mixed signals this off season, but then at least we'd have more time to deal with the emotions of that. Instead it's like a month to ST and now the people are mad bc of the admittance at winter weekend. If that happens in Nov then the vibe this month is better even if it woulda been worse a few months ago. Leave it to FSG to not make the investment tho lol
Yeah not a great offseason for FSG lol
As long as they don't get too many injuries on the team.
Good video. Agree with you on the offense. That's why I find Red Sox owners frustrating about not spending more on the starting pitching. If they can spend 3 billion to invest in PGA tour, then they can afford 25 million a year for Snell or Montgomery. PS. Happy 🎂 birthday, bro.
Thanks man appreciate it and yeah it’s super frustrating
Excellent summary. There was also an excellent article on this by John Tomase last week where he pointed out that everything has to go right for this to happen - and it probably won't. The lineup I can see being good, the defense can't be as bad again but whether it will be that good is another matter (Devers and Casas have to improve.) As you point out the rotation has to play to its maximum. Some improvement from Bello and Crawford, Giolito turning back the clock, Whitlock (better out of the pen IMHO) staying healthy, Pivetta proving a consistent starter, Houck would also be better in the pen in my opinion - and no injuries? It is a very big ask and cover is very thin, unless the likes of Gonzales proves ready. We really still need a quality starting pitcher.
Yeah everything looks solid but the rotation as a razor thin margin for error which makes it very unlikely and that sucks
Corbin ... Your absolutely spot on about pointing out how the offensive projection numbers prop up the overall evaluation value of the Red Sox being a "breakout team" this upcoming season ... Trevor Story being the everyday shortstop definitely improves the defense considerably provided that he can stay on the field ... Craig Breslow, Andrew Bailey and Justin Willard should make a positive impact on the team's pitching performance ... Marcelo Meyer, Kyle Teel and Roman Anthony still have a stint at Worcester ahead of them ... I also doubt that John Henry will provide the dollars needed for Breslow to acquire Jordan Montgomery whose addition would greatly improve their wildcard berth chances in 2024 ... Realistically as you have wisely analyzed, I also think they are still a year or two away of becoming a legitimate breakout AL playoff contender ...
Yeah which is unfortunate cause they could compete now
to win this division or even get close to a wild card spot it is needed a record closer to 100 wins....
Division yes wild card you can sneak in with high 80s in wins
I totally agree that this team has a lot of potential. I'm excited for the season and for our young pitchers to grow working with Andrew Bailey. I don't see us as a last place team at all. Don't forget the 2013 Red Sox were predicted to finish in last...and they did shock the world by winning the World Series 😅
The problem is the division they are in. They could win 85 games and still be in last place
I think that it’s the most frustrating thing for me is that this team is not that far away. Lots of talent however , Look how the expectations have plummeted! Red Sox slightly over .500 how the mighty have fallen. They have got to acquire a top of the rotation type guy for this to work in my opinion. Also it’s the division..AL beast AL best AL East ..navigate that with Gialito as your ace? Good luck!
I think it would be Bello as the ace at this point tbh, and you aren't wrong based on everything they are really close to being competitive especially with the young core.
@@redseatradio I hope if they stand with this roster they give the ball to Bello opening day. Super stoked about the corners Devers and Casas challenge anybody to find a young duo with more potential.
Agreed on both. If this is gonna be the roster you need to lean on these young talents
@@markmccarthy7887 Remember last year? It seemed like Bello struggled to pitch during day games for some reason. I hope he corrected that this offseason.
The Sox are not too far from being a solid team.
Not at all
Hey Corbin, I like our offense. I think it will be ok or even better than ok... For me it's all about the pitching that's where Im concerned...
And if you were concerned about the pitching I’d be concerned haha
As it should be my friend. :) @@redseatradio
If much healthier and with development of younger guys, I see 84 or so wins. If they get Montgomery, they can make the playoffs! Agreed Corbin..?
100% agree!
I totally agree. I have the feeling that the current lineup can do a lot of damage. I just think that ownership needs to get Jordan Montgomery and then I'll feel a lot more comfortable going into the season.
You certainly aren't alone in thinking that
Interesting. I'll keep it in mind. I think 86 wins isn't crazy, but it's also kinda my ceiling.
I don't understand where ESPN is coming from with this prediction, and I don't see it. Starting pitching is the big question mark with the 2024 Red Sox. Regarding the young talent in the pipeline, little of it is pitching. Pitching is key.
Yeah pitching is the key, but positionally and offensively there is a good chance they can surprise a lot of people
We all know it’s always Pitching Pitching, Pitching. They have a good bullpen, for them to win over 80 games they need O’Neil, Grissom, Abreu, & Duran to have better than average seasons. Rotation and depth is a weakness I just don’t see those 5 making 20-25 starts - we can hope and I know I’ll be watching- Thanks Corbin.
Appreciate the thoughts Michael thanks!
It's laughable to think that there's any notion that the Red Sox will be "really good" in 2024.
Corbin, I recently did a comparison to Max Scherzer and Kutter Crawford's 2023 seasons. If you haven't checked, I really think Andrew Bailey can spark something with him. Super under the radar.
Making a video today!
I could see it but mostly concerned with the starting rotation.
My ouija board predicts a RS World Series too! This off-season is getting painful. The RS are going back to the 1950s RS days of non-contending days where they were considered a non-factor. In my over 45 years of RS watching, I have never a more pitiful RS sight except for 2020 season which was a necessary evil. Even in their crappy seasons such as 2014+5, the management tried something.
Little bit more reliable than a ouija board haha but yeah I think everyone is frustrated right now
I think Redsox trade K. Jansen and sign Montgomery and I will agree with ESPN. Craig Criswell is not enough to replace C. Sale.
They aren’t replacing sale with chriswell it’s with Giolito
Youth and Power we will be very good
RIP Jimmy Williams a fun guy Good Manager and a Fresno state boy !!!!
Yes definitely RIP
Just gives even more reasons to supplement this team with talent ... damn you John Henry
Yeah unbelievably frustrating
As a lifelong Red Sox fan, this might be the most positive spin on this terrible looking opening day team that I've seen, but I'll roll with it lol. It also doesn't hurt that you can get tickets against the Orioles and the guardians at the first home stand for $17. Now you know the pink hats are gone, and the tickets aren't over inflated because all of the fair weather fans are gone at least until the weather gets nice and we're fighting for a wild card spot.
I feel there's too much pressure on the young guys to breakout and this kind of "all our eggs in one basket" approach is going to be mocked even further years down the line with the ownership's philosophy if they don't all meet these expectations. It's also hard to get excited about them when they don't wanna give them a solid veteran core to fall back on when previous stars had a stronger veteran presence. Ownership is also way too cheap to KEEP them in their primes if they DO all make it. Bello has great potential but he shouldn't be expected to be the #1 in the rotation to start the year. They're doing him a disservice by not getting another high end starter. Casas and Duran should be better this year too, but still do deserve another bat to complement this step forward they're expected to do. What happens if some of these young guys get injured? Who did they fall back on? There should be more space for them to allow them to be the young players they are that are still developing instead of trying to already market them as the future stars and savior of the team. The Red Sox aren't a bad team, a few quality signings (Mainly Soler and Monty) and they can have huge momentum to surprise a lot of people. However, I think this approach isn't as "sustained winning" or whatever ownership claims as they think it is and I think some of these predictions are eating up some of the hype that they've pushed.
It definitely is a lot of pressure. If it works out they’ll look really smart if it doesn’t it’ll look miserable
Agree on most points aside from Duran. I like him as a player but also think that at his age, he is what he is. I could 110% be wrong and if he improves I'd be hyped, but I think his reliance on speed and producing against righties kinda caps his ceiling.
He also had a .381 BABIP last year which isn't going to be replicated easily, even with his speed factor. He is a relatively high K% guy with less power than meets the eye. Last year was his best year and his HR% was 2.2....the same as Verdugo's career HR% who strikes out 10% less and walks 1.5% better. His glove isn't anything special either unfortunately.
@173jaSon371 not necessarily wrong Jason. But if Duran is what he is and his last year is what he looks like for the nextlike 3 tears that’s a damn good player
I guess you can look at it like a high risk high reward type of deal
The antics the ownership have done are kind of genius in awful way. For them? Not only have they kept their wallets closed but they've played with people's emotions in almost a rage baity way that draws headline after headline to add more attention to a team they haven't gave much attention to. I imagine if they finish in a very similar spot this year this will be the same plan as it will sell until people just don't care that they've moved into this small market mindset.@@redseatradio
Personally, I feel like the Red Sox didn't really know what to do with him until last year and now they know how to utilize him better. I feel like that will help him flourish more even if his outright performance is about the same@@173jaSon371
Nicely done Corbin. I do think we are going to be much better than last year. If they have the smarts to replace Verdugo in right field with Wilyer Abreu his performance will go down as the big surprise of the season. I think he will tear the ball apart ! It could give the offense a huge boost along with Trevor being back helping both defense and offense. I would not be surprised to see the team win 87 games or so. I am still hoping for a magical Montgomery signing. The youngsters in the system are playing very well. I don't think our top 3 are that far off and who knows? In a pinch one or two could come up during the second half of the season if needed in an emergency situation perhaps. I am hoping to see Wikelman Gonzalez advance up the ranks with that fastball that tops out around 96/97 mph. I have dreams of that guy joining forces with Bello eventually. :) I know we have the prospects in the minors and have improved at the major league level as well. I am very willing to be patient. We also have a great pitching coach now and Breslow is a former pitcher as well. The team is obviously going to be redefined with a heavy emphasis and focus on pitching. That works for me. I am very optimistic. Willing to accept it might take some time but I know we are in a better place than last season. Happy birthday Corbin.
I think we are in a better place the question is by how much. Thanks!
1 happy birthday Corbin!
2 when the truck leaves for Fort Myers, the dust will start to settle. We'll see.
I hope we do see some settling and it’s Sunday but thank you!!
The only way this team is going to break out as if they sign either Lorenzin or Jordan Montgomery....
According to this formula what they need are big steps up from the people already on the team
@redseatradio So that means Garrett and Tanner will be in the rotation.. I really hope they both can figure out how to get past the 4th inning..
@saltygrampy yeah pretty much
the pitching prolly gonna disappoint. It might take bailey more than 1 year to develop everyone.
Thats the problem with this projection. They weigh everything together. The offense has the potential to be really good, but the pitching has very little room for error and that will drag them down.
Interesting commentary! I thought the rookies were really good when they were inserted into the rotation. Crawford had to be stretched out since he started as a receiver, so it took time for him to be consistent in the rotation. Bello was special when he pitched. I saw him make adjustments on the mound when he had to get control of the game. Houck was looking good after 5 innings just before he hit in the face. Whitlock was heart. They say he's healthy. Let's see if that's actually the case. Winchowski will be competing for a starting job as well. So it looks like we have lots of starters. My view in that Whitlock and Winchowski will be used in the bullpen for long relief.
Yeah the rotation is super interesting because their ceiling is pretty high but their floor is also really low
I believe DraftKings has the Red Sox at 79.5 over under wins. I'm starting to think maybe I'll take the over I thought the under would be easy this year but I don't know what to expect from this team. There's so many guys that could have went for and guys they could have got, they didn't really take care of any needs in a way that improves the team, it'll be interesting to see how it looks like a Frankenstein lineup. Also the pitching staff could have really used a boost on the front and back end. Why not go after someone like Bauer who's in Japan but throwing good and always ready to play. Not only would he put fans in the seats, I think he could be a decent picture, maybe 16 wins sub 4 ERA. I know it sounds crazy but I would feel a lot better with another good starting picture, someone who can really lock it down in the 7th and eighth inning and then another nice corner bat, I know I'm wishing for quite a bit here maybe two out of the three and will be competitive. I just want the games and July and August to matter and not be 20 games out after the break.
I would be very interested in What the report considers a breakout team, is it just having a better record than last year, making the playoffs and so forth. Just having a better record should not make your team a breakout team. They can finish with 82 wins and still come in last place in the East. I really like that you explained the weighting system of the formula and how it hides the deficiencies and highlights the strengths. This happens as well with how they rate the farm systems too. We have the #10 overall system, but the breakdown is #3 in positional players and # 29 in pitching. I don't think this team will be a breakout team, way too many questions, and they may take a step back this year compared to last when you compare everything. They talked about how it takes a prospect a few years (3-4) to really make an impact giving the examples of Bogarets, Devers, Pedroia and Garciappara, and how it took multiple leaders on each team to get them to where they needed to go. We don't currently have those types here anymore (Turner would have been one, but he's in Toronto now). Your optimism is amazing, I just wished the RedSox could provide what is needed to help that out more.
Breakout looks like a serious step up from last year contending for the playoffs
I'm disappointed about Turner but not surprised. Pitching is going to be a problem. They still have a chance to improve but there's no evidence of that happening. Happy birthday 🎂
That’s Peter not til Sunday but I really appreciate it!
Doesn't ESPN drug test take there employees 😂...we suck
Hi Corbin, I wanted to join your live session that your having right now. But there no comment option. Is that a members only live chat?
No if you are on an iPad recently it hasn't been able to comment so there might be something going on there.
they seem to have found an answer to the shortstop issue. devers will be back. they need to find an answer at 1st. the rotation will look better when pivetta gets back. even with the injuries they are still not falling that far behind!
I'm gonna start saving for playoff tickets
Good idea!
ok so it sounds good and as you said if we have a hot month things could look a whole lot better, but equally we could have a month that stinks and go the other way too. offence? dont have an issue looking pretty good, Pitching? i have everything crossed on that front and finally defence? we can only hope its better than last year. the biggest problem for me is that we are not the only ones to see that prediction. so will the front office and it might say to them that we dont need to get someone else and that for me is the very scary bit
Yeah it 100% could go the other way
Yup your right. If the Sox stay healthy and are properly coached they can be a formidable force to be dealt with. We may not have the big monster bats like other teams but we have the ability to play old fashioned station to station offense if your getting hits your scoring runs. Im tired of negative thinking about our Sox. We can be a team that others can respect. Truck day is coming soon. Hope the diocese of Boston can send a priest to bless it on its journey to florida.
Man I hope they do we need some positivity up in here.
It's baseball anything is possible but the way things have been going not likely
The past couple of tears the offense would show up only to not show up, to me there has been minimal improvement. The rotation, about the same. the bullpen, bullpen are volatile, and possibility of being worse. The one strength is having several able to go 2-3 if not more innings.
I just don’t understand the “not ready” argument they’re trying to say. The lineup and bullpen are pretty good. All they need is SP’s and I’d put them in the playoff picture. If they sign Monty and Ryu, it wouldn’t be out of the question that they finish in 2nd in the division
Yeah it makes no sense
The lineup looks like a good one. Still think a starter would make a big difference. That being said every team in baseball no matter the payroll or star players all start with a ?????? The game is made up of intangible factors. injuries, guys who under perform whatever. 162 game season wears on the best teams. As last year with the Padres, the Mets, etc so yes this team could break out and be better than many say so well see. Breslow could surprise us yet. Time to get hyped and root loud and strong for our Red Sox!! The hell with the owners our guys deserve we the fans to be behind them for all they do to try and win for them and all of us. Go Red Sox!!!
Totally agree Dennis!! Support is for the players not the owners
We need an ace in the rotation to compete in our loaded division. If we were in the central division I would say we are going to make the playoffs 😂 our pitching is weak hopefully they step up . I want to win now baby!!
I’m not even asking for an ace anymore just give me a solid top guy
The thing is that the Red Sox always seem to go have a random good season & go on a run & be terrible at other times
Yeah it’s all over the place
Hoping the Red Sox get you a starter for your birthday!🎉
That would be the greatest gift of all time
WHO IS THEIR ACE?
Don’t have one
Plenty of number 3,4,5 pitchers but we need a #1 or #2. Pitchers need to step up this year
Trevor Story has a lot to prove. He barely been on the field since coming to the Sox. He’s been a big disappointment so far
There’s no doubt the offense is at least top 15 potential top 10. Defense should improve from last year. However like everyone I have heavy doubt about the pitching staff. I just feel like too much has to go right all while staying healthy. I feel like the depth is lacking although they said they would improve it. All it takes is 2-3 starters going down and now they’re scrambling for capable starters to give them 4-5 innings and end up exhausting their bullpen every night. I personally would like to see a lower tier starter like Clevinger added to fill the fifth spot and have Houck and Whitlock in the bullpen until there’s an injury. I do think the bullpen will be solid even if they deal Kenley. They have plenty of depth options as relievers and I feel like Martin would be a fine closer for this season or put Whitlock back there. I’m also high on Slaten from the rule 5 and think he can be a valuable piece to that bullpen that can eat a few innings if needed. Overall I think it’s possible they sneak into the WC but do have doubts about how much I think needs to go in their favor
Yeah it really is just the pitching staff. Specifically the rotation, there is just 0 room for error in it and thats scary
This might be one of the Redsox worst years ever .
To do that they would have to lose 100+ games. That’s not gonna happen.
The LA Dodgers will CRUSH ALL. LIKE Godzilla.
Water finds its level. Water finds its level. What Yankees fans on Yahoo sports. Or Yahoo Fans on Yankees sports. I havent decided yet.
What I have decided, though is that most successful MLB team seasons follow the same bell curve.
When you look at the Dodgers and it wasn't the effect of 2020 in a vacuum that makes people hate on them. But they had much better teams that had to go the full 162. The world series of 2020 would have been at the median of the season mileage-wise.
They are just trying to get Red Sox fans to click
Nah it was a legit formula
How? This team is built to loose.
I think it’s a kooky metric. I see the path for contention but this club is relying on like 70th percentile outcome to try to get to the postseason every year. We’ve been relatively healthy. When the rest of the league have multiple TJs we haven’t had one since 2020. If Bailey and Willard are force multipliers for the pitching staff and just by way of eliminating Kluber and the DFA guys we lose about -3.5war. If we can stay healthy and there are some gains our offense can be solid like last year but not great. Pitching staff may be solid but not great. Hopefully bullpen steals some games and you’re in it. Still feels like a 75-80 win team if we’re being realstic but if everything breaks you might get to 90
Yeah everything would have to break exactly their way not impossible not great
Redsox will finish in last place again in 2024. We don’t have the pitching. Just 1 number 1 would make a big difference. But the way it’s looking atm. That’s not going to happen.
I don't know anything about this guy's report or whatever... The way I see it, the offense will probably be good, but keep in mind a lot of the guys we are depending on in the lineup are injury prone. Sure, they could have a healthy, comeback season, or they could be on the IL before June. And unless the Red Sox get more innings from their starters this season, the bullpen will just get worn down again.
I agree but what are odds they all end up with major injuries? Much lower than the rotation not working out
Good pitching beats good hitting and it's questionable with this staff. They won't make a deal or signing to improve it. The defense must improve. The hitting is ok....... only time will tell. A real team leader Justin Turner signs with Toronto......that hurts! Sometimes I get a head ache trying to figure this management out .
Only thing I would say is hitting is better than okay
They are way off. The Red Sox will be just as bad this year. John Henry needs to sell the team to an owner that wants to win. These past 4 years have been a disgrace. These idiots never should have traded Mookie Betts. That was the dumbest move since the Babe Ruth trade. I hope they fall apart every year. I dont even watch them anymore. I know some good little league players that are better than their infielders. Boycott the Red Sox. Maybe John Henry will sell.
Do you still stand by this comment? (The part about how the Red Sox will be just as bad in 2024.)
ESPN likes the wokeness of it all
What the hell are you talking about
why? because its ESPN! they will score runs! maybe lots of runs if the younger players step it up as i think they will. the starting pitching remains the issue. the bullpen is good and could be great if they found a couple of starters . they could then put guys like houck in the bullpen and have a shot at having a great bullpen.
Yeah improving the rotation also improved the bullpen. Unfortunate
if they feel like they have a chance hitters,especially younger players will try much harder and older players may see it as their last chance to get to the WS. where if many play but dont go overboard so as to not to get hurt and some are playing for a contract! hitting can be contagious especially if the team is winning. that was kinda how it was in 1975 where before the season they werent given much chance. but the guys like lynn and rice started hitting and it sorta set the whole team on fire!
if a few guys like casas and abreu and a few others start hitting like many feel they can it will inspire others like devers to try harder. they have a lot of players that have the ability to hit a ton. it doesnt need to be homeruns a guy like grissom could easily be a great doubles hitter at fenway. his flyball pattern is tailor made for fenway. kinda like a mike lowell was. or pedroia. will he be pedroia at second ? maybe with coaching he could be good at second. baltimore didnt have a lot of superstars on their team but they did well last year!
@@davidbosworth4751 yeah I think the offense will play really well. I have a lot of faith in the young core. And honestly I have faith in the young pitching as well. The problem with that is there is some wiggle room with the lineup, there is little to no room in the rotation.
If we look at this realistically and not through Rose colored glasses the team is awful on paper on the field and worse then last season they got rid of their best pitcher from last season in Chris Sale and are without 2 of their best offensive players from last season in Justin Turner & Adam Duvall they will finish in last place and their heralded prospects none of them will even make it to Fenway this season. It’s not pessimism it’s reality
Click bait lol, I agree about one side bring up the whole though I've been looking at farm rankings and we are top 5 overall but that's because we are #2 for players and #29 for pitching
How in world is this clickbait?
@@redseatradio ESPN is click bait not you...
Btw Happy birthday
@Versatilty ahhh and it’s not til Sunday this is just the bday stream. Either way thank you my friend
Lol, they predicted wrong. Still suck like always!!
But baltimore , yankees and jays will be better too .. 😂
Need to go younger to a degree
Trade Duran, Roman Anthony, and Yorke for Luzardo