GAGAUZIA | Moldova's Next Threat?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 31 พ.ค. 2024
- In May 2023, Moldova's Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia voted for a new governor - or bashkan. This was won in the second round by Evghenia Gutsal, a pro-Russian candidate representing the Ilan Shor Party - named after a prominent oligarch convicted of embezzlement. However, the central government has contested the result. Amidst claims of electoral fraud, Moldovan police raided the headquarters of the Gagauz Electoral Commission. All this has led to fears that tensions are rising again in a region that once tried to break away from Moldova. But are such concerns justified?
The origins of the Gagauz are shrouded in mystery. Although they speak a language closely related to Turkish, they are predominantly Christian Orthodox. While they were first settled in Bessarabia (now Moldova) in the early nineteenth century by Imperial Russia. However, during Soviet rule, they were deliberately Russified as part of a general effort to keep majority Romanian nationalism in check. This all came to a head in 1990. As the Soviet Union broke apart, Gagauzia, alongside nearby Transnistria, declared independence. But just four years later, it agreed to accept territorial autonomy within Moldova under an agreement that saw it granted its own parliament, government, and governor. Since then, Gagauzia has come to be seen as a rare example of an attempted secession successfully resolved by peaceful reintegration back into the country it broke away from. But over the past decade, tensions have been rising as Moldova pursues EU integration - a process many Gagauz see as an attempt to unite with neighbouring Romania. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of the Ukraine War, the pro-Russian sentiments of the Gagauz have become a growing source of concern as Moldova claims Moscow is interfering in its internal affairs. This has all come to a head with the most recent elections in Gagauzia, which saw all eight candidates adopt pro-Russian positions. So, is Gagauzia becoming a new source of pro-Russian problems for Moldova?
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VIDEO CHAPTERS
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:47 Secession and Reintegration: Moldova and Gagauzia
02:19 Moldova and Gagauzia: Location and Population
03:38 The Origins of Gagauzia
05:54 Gagauzia Declares Independence
07:06 Gagauz Peace Agreement and Autonomy
08:46 Moldova-Gagauzia Relations after the Agreement
10:36 Growing Tensions Between Moldova and Gagauzia
12:56 A New Gagauz Independence Effort?
SOURCES AND FURTHER READING
Republic of Moldova
moldova.md/en
Government of Gagauzia
www.gagauzia.md
Law on the Special Status of Gagauzia
www.mskgagauzia.md/wp-content...
EU-Moldova Association Agreement 2005
eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-conte...
Gagauz | Minority Rights Group
minorityrights.org/minorities...
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#Gagauzia #Moldova #Russia
This is such an interesting situation. The Gagauz are a truly fascinating community. Turkic language speaking Christian Orthodox. But they have become heavily Russified. But Turkey is also trying to exert influence. So, is this a growing problem for Moldova? And do you think this will become a separatist conflict again? As ever, I really look forward to your thoughts and comments.
I personally dint think their threat should be taken that seriously. For one, their population is very small so they wont have any miliary means to try and secede outright.
And also, their region is a series of enclaves that dont have many resources and are stuck between Moldova and Romania, meaning that if they somehow become independent they will have to make direct trade with two nations that Gaugauzia has bad blood with.
And thats why i think the gaugauz people will not try and secede from Moldova. It will be less of a benefit than it seems (kinda like Brexit)
Would it have been a wise decision if Moldova chose neutrality?
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You know, maybe there will be.
You have a problem with your head because I see you don't like Russians, go see a doctor or a therapist. Drink some pills
The paradox in Gagauzia is that Moldova gave them a very high degree of autonomy hoping that the Gagauz people will promote their Gagauz culture, will speak and develop their Gagauz language, will emmbrace their Turkish roots and traditions. But they did almost nothing in this direction. The overwhelming majority of people in Gagauzia speak only Russian. Very few young people in Gagauzia know the Gagauz language. They watch Russian TV, they speak Russian and basically live in the Russian cultural sphere. Moldova even hopes for Turkey to encourage the Gagauz to not lose their culture.
So the high degree of autonomy that Moldova offered them has backfired. Instead of developing the Gagauz culture it turned into a Russian cultural buble and into a population that seem to love Russia more than they love Gagauzia.
This is why the Ukrainian nationalist government want to stop speaking Ukrainians speaking Russian, and are trying to stamp out Russian culture, down to history and even religion. The pull of Russian culture is very strong, that's why western propaganda influence is low, they feel Russian themselves, and when the west attacks Russia, wheatear military or culturally it is seen as an attack on there sense of self.
Ironic...and stupidly sad.
The Gagauz should wake up and end their reliance on terrorist Russia. One of the solutions should be an outright ban on all Russian state TV/media so not one Gagauz will ever again be forcibly corrupted by scum backed by the Moscow Kremlin who spit lie after lie of just about anything for the sake of their own ratings and popularity among other pro-Russian scum.
Because Moldova has nothing to offer the Gagauz people
Lies
Greetings from Moldova, and many thanks for your work!
Thank you so much! I really appreciate it. I hope you found it a fair and accurate account of the situation. And warmest greetings from Cyprus.
@@JamesKerLindsay You own a condo in Cyprus or something it's seems like you're there a lot.
Thank you, professor, for covering Gagauzia. Often in discussions about the future of Moldova people bring up Transnistria while simulatneously completely glossing over Gagauzia which I feel is oversimplifying a bit despite the small size of the area, in fact, Gagauzia is just slightly larger than my home of the Faroe Islands but it has almost 3 times the population. I also find the fact that they are Christians rather than most other Turkic peoples who mainly are Muslim (I think the Bashkir have a high number of Christians too) very interesting. But for me the most interesting is the Gagauz language and how similar and at the same time how different it is from (Anatolian) Turkish. It has in fact really caught my attention as a linguist but more importantly as a language nerd. I therefore also find it sad to see and hear how the Gagauz seem to be switching to speaking Russian instead but I think I can read between the lines that exposure has a huge say, which is something as I coming from another small language community can absolutely relate to. But again, thanks for this video, this is one where in the worst case we have a forgotten powder keg waiting to go off. I hope it'll never become that serious but the world has taught me that you should never say never.
Thank you so much, I always love when viewers from other disciplines jump into the comments with contributions like this. It is fascinating to hear perspectives on topics from other angles. I am not a linguist (although I have a bit of Turkish) and so I wondered how close the two languages are. But, sadly, it appears increasingly moot. it seems that Russian really does dominate now.
Actually there has been many more Turkic Christian populations in the past and they do still exist today. Christianity was the first Abrahamic religion of Turkic people.
1,5 million Orthodox Christian Turkic Chuvash exist today, including Orthodox Christian Turkic Yakut people, being almost half a million, Turkic Altai, some Tatars and others. I am sure part of these populations are shamanistic, agnostic and atheistic as well!
@@JamesKerLindsay From the linguistic point of view, Gagauz and Istanbul Standard Turkish of Turkey are very close! Infact Gagauz is almost the same as the Turkish dialects in northern Bulgaria (Deliorman dialects), minus the Russian and Moldovan words! It is linguistically within the Balkan Turkish dialects. It is always pleasantly surprising for a Balkan Turkish person to hear authentic Gagauz Turkish speak. They are like," These people are like from our town and they are our kinsmen"! To add more twist to this, Gajals are muslim Gagauz. They live in Balkans too. This is also an interesting info for you!
@@thraciensis3589 Yes, I was thinking of the Chuvash too but the name just didn't come to me at the time I wrote my comment. And yes, the differences between standard Anatolian Turkish and Gagauz is fascinating. I'm not that well versed in the dialectology but interesting that these dialects are that close and then there's apparently also a third language of the Balkans called "Balkan Gagauz Turkish" which is not (Anatolian) Turkish and not Gagauz but still very close to both. I unfortunately can't find much info about it but its ISO code is bgx if you want to look it up. But yes, the fact that the infinitive marker of Gagauz is just -maa and not -mak combined with the fact that they just got completely rid of ğ so that ağlamak is aalamaa in Gagauz is really fascinating.
@@JamesKerLindsay Professor, i am of gagauz origin and can say in a very short concise statement-gagauz are much closer to Russians due to historical and religious impacts.
A nation or a person cannot forget its history.
And that is where Professor James Ker-Lindsay comes into the picture. I have learned an incredible amount via these videos. It has cultivated a thirst to know more, and for that I thank him for his positive influence. I hope the same applies to many others.
Thank you so much Peter!
Can you concisely present what you think you have learned from this white supremacist?
Hi Professor,
Your channel is one of the reasons why i value TH-cam. Given the standard of your coverage pertaining to countries and scenarios i do know and understand, i feel comfortable trusting your take on pretty much all topics you cover. Having that piece of mind - that you are purely fact driven, sensitive to all groups concerned and above all objective- really makes your channel necessary viewing every Friday. Thank you for starting and maintaining this channel. It is truly valuable.
Thank you so much. That really means a lot to me. I love making these videos. It is so good to be able to explore these topics in more detail. And I really appreciate the support. Have a great weekend.
@@JamesKerLindsay You should make a video about the western war in Syria and the fake orchestrated chemical attack.
What do you think of the loaded language used in the description of this video? Do you accept the position that it's a problem that Moldova could be pro-Russian?
@James Rowlands Yes, given the current political climate I do think it could be a problem, depending on one's outlook.
Gagauz are immigrants to Moldova.They forced their autonomy over a weak and peaceful Moldova.They better be be correct to Moldova.Cause their treason will not be forgotten.
I really love this channel for its coverage of even the most obscure territories. Not many people before this war heard for Moldova, even less for Transnistria and only handful (including me :-) ) for Gagauzia. Nice of you to cover this topic.
I cannot wait for the episode on Republic of Peščenica :-)
Moldova most people have heard of before but transnistria/pridestrovia really got more focus with the war in Ukraine because of it's location but I've never heard of Gagauzia either.
Thank you so much Vinko. You are completely right. I have long felt that Moldova has been the least known or covered European country. It is now getting more attention. But it still remains far less understood internationally than it should be.
All this conflicte is because Moldova is weak and corrupt.Russia ,also corrupt,but powerfull,is playing a big role in keeping her weak and politically dependable.Gagauz are occupying a land that is not theirs,and,despite the Moldovan benevolence,are ready to backstab the host-country..
As far as international geopolitics is concerned this has to be the best channel available .
This video is particularly fascinating for me as I'd never heard of gauguzia .
Thank you so much Roddy! This was certainly one of the lesser known topics I have covered. But it’s a fascinating situation, isn’t it!?
It's telling that you're so ignorant about the world, yet so full of praise of the white supremacist propagandist that just lied through their teeth to you.
I don't think I have ever heard that word before. Many thanks Prof for keeping us informed about what's going on in the world.
Thanks Todd! Yes, it’s remarkably little known, even amongst people who work on conflict.
Great video, Professor! Only one mistake: 5:02 - Moldova did not unite with Wallachia in 1881, but in 1859 as the United Principalities, becoming a unitary state in 1862 and turning into a kingdom in 1881.
Thanks Mitch. I was actually incredibly careful with that particular sentence. It took me a little while to get it right. If you listen carefully, I didn’t say that Wallachian and Moldavia united in 1881 to form the Kingdom of Romania. I said they united, forming the Kingdom of Romania in 1881. A slight but crucial difference because you are absolutely right. Unification took place earlier. But one thing you learn doing videos like this is that it is really easy to confuse viewers who might be new to a subject by bombarding them with too much information, especially things that are vital for the story. Trying to explain the evolution would have taken up more space and I try to work to a very tight framework in the videos. :-)
@@JamesKerLindsay your nuance and attention to detail is greatly appreciated as a Romanian 🙏🙏
Thank you for informing us about this. I have only heard about Transnistrian dispute in relation to Moldavia. I did not know about Moldavia having an another potential territorial dispute.
Thank you. Yes, it’s a really fascinating and little known situation. But it’s suddenly become so much more significant given everything else going on.
5:15 - the Soviet Union invaded eastern Romania (Bessarabia) in June 1940 ! Not in July 1941.
Thanks Professor! I was born in Gagauzia and, I'm ashamed to admit, did not know its history too well. Pro-Russian and anti-EU views are indeed strong and not only amongst the elderly.
Thanks so much. It has a fascinating history. But interesting - and rather depressing - to hear that the views are widely held across all age groups. This seemed to be the case from the referendum results.
@@JamesKerLindsay Why may I ask, is it depressing for people to hold their own views and not be dictated by outsiders as to what views they may possess?
@@peterwilliams2152 I find it depressing because I am a strong believer in European unity. The EU offers a chance for economic development while providing strong safeguards for minority rights. I think it would offer the Gagauz a real hope to lead a sustainable future.
@@JamesKerLindsay So the fact that the Baltic Statelets refuse to give ethnic Russians "rights" doesn't concern you? Russia gives more rights to ethnic minorities than a number of EU states. As for economic development, without cheap Russian fuel, the EU is doomed to become an economic backwater.
@@peterwilliams2152 Isn't today a free day in the troll factory too?
Gagauizia? Never heard of the place before! Now I've learned something completely new. Thank you!
My sister-in-law spent near a decade with the OSCE, half of it with the concerns in Moldova. Thanks for bringing this to light.
Thanks, Steve. The OSCE is a fascinating organisation. It does a lot of really important work, but is surprisingly little known more widely. It must have been so interesting to work on Moldova.
I figured Moldova is the next domino to fall to Russia if Ukraine falls. I just hadn't realized how vulnerable they are already.
extremely. that's why they should receive all possible help NOW, from both NATO / EU and Ukraine, to kick out the rushists ! It works in all our favors.
Russia doesn't want to invade and occupy places where people don't want them, it's way too much trouble. It's hard enough for them to quell dissent in Russia itself, they're lucky that so many journalists and oligarchs keep falling out of windows. What they do is bribe, influence, propagandize, encourage secessions, etc. If they believed forceful occupations worked they would start with Georgia, where nobody could prevent them.
@@DacianRider The Ukrainian Russian conflict will most likely end with Ukraine giving up the 25 to 30% of Ukraine they lost plus a neutral Ukraine .
@@bilic8094 we shall see... it's not over till the fat vatnik sings ! 😁
You figured out wrongly, it happens.
A small population in a fragmented enclave, given how precarious their situation is, it looks as if Moldova has done more than you might reasonably have hoped to accommodate the Gagauz. Their perspective on Moldova seems a bit like the Gibraltarians to Spain, but from the starting point of being inside rather than outside it. Quite why they might think Russia is the horse to back is a mystery.
It's culture. There culturally Russians, they watch Russian TV, read Russian news, read Russian books. There is no mystery here. In western countries we destroyed most of the difference between different regions and forces official languages, if you want a cohesive state you have too. Unfortunately the Soviet Union when it dissolved left a lot of unwieldy states, like the colonial powers in the middle east and Africa. The Soviet Union was a multi ethnic state, most nation states are not, what we have in Moldova ls a little slice of a Soviet multi ethnic empire, not sure you can turn it into a successful nation without cutting a few bits off.
Thanks. You are right. This is a really great example of ethnic autonomy at work. And rather successful. But now we are seeing a downside. It is providing Moscow with another point of destabilisation. Hopefully, neither side will try to bring it crashing down.
actually is not. You just have to stop listen to propaganda, and start using your brain
@@merocaine the thing that they should remember is that the country that Russia deported them is being very nice and accommodating considering the circumstances. They would not get that freedom in Russia but if that is the culture and politics that they wish to embrace then that is where they should move to. I say that as an immigrant myself. I am free to speak my language if I want to. I can join my parents culture community groups and part take in any events that community group organises. But I would never expect the country I live in to give us a piece of its self with autonomy or wish to destabilise my home. If I did not wish to integrate and become part of the culture of the country that I was in then I would move to one that was more to my liking.
What these people did to remember is that they are very lucky to be given the autonomy that they have been. And be grateful instead of trying to destabilise their home for Putins benefit. Causing that kind of trouble is what leads to resentment in the host nation’s population towards minorities.
It seems that while this minority group wishes to do whatever it wants it doesn’t seem to want their host country to do the same with their opposition to EU membership or rejoining Romania. Don’t they see that this makes them a security treat to the country they are living in? And eventually security treats have to be dealt with.
Excellent laydown of the dynamics in Moldova. Residual effects of past national political borders and conflicts conflicts is surprising.
Thanks so much, Andrew.
Congratulations.
Gagauz people are not Bulgarian nor Greek origin.
They are of Turkic origin, they preceed the arrival of the Selguck and Ottoman Turks into the Balkans and Black Sea shore areas and as you rightfully said, they are Orthodox Christians.
They actually still exists in Romania and Bulgaria in very small numbers though (many, many decades ago before WWII they lived as compact communities in their villages).
Myself, as a Romanian I am not interested at all in all these minority ethnic troubles left over from the former Soviet Union collapsed system.
I just say that whatever the Government in Chișinău and Moldavian brotherly people decide, we shall back them.
Peace from Romania.🕊🙏
A Gagauzia economic tie to Russia sounds unlikely. Non-contiguous markets between Russia and an autonomous population of 180,000 people can't be as prosperous as a connection with a local market.
Unless Russia wants to subsidized such an entity on going.
How likely is that?
Thanks Michael. You’re exactly right. This is why I am also sceptical about Republika Srpska successfully breaking away from Bosnia. Breakaway territories really need to neighbour their patrons to succeed. Interestingly, Transnistria is the exception. But I think this really continues now because Moldova doesn’t want to provoke Russia unnecessarily and so doesn’t try to overrun the 1500 Russian troops there and seize it back. But this is very different from an entirely new effort to breakaway by Gagauzia.
Europe needs a strong Russia to keep a balance.
Transnistria alresdy works as a subsidised exclave for Russia. It is possible theorically. Though what russia has long wanted is for transnistria to be integrated back to Moldova with high autonomy, including veto powers
@@bilic8094
Russian propaganda.
All Russia is doing is tearing countries apart for territorial gain. Nobody needs that, and the West finally had enough of the spineless practice in Ukraine.
There is plenty of info on recent political events from Gagauzia (Găgăuzia [gəgə'uzija], in Romanian) available in Romanian, on TH-cam channels from the Republic of Moldova. They do offer a sophisticated view on what is really happening in this region. Unfortunately, none of them has subtitles in English. As they say, the devil is in the details.
I lived and worked in Moldova. The Moldovans just want to stay out of the Ukrainian war. They struggle because of the economy. The Russians are fermenting separatism in Gagauz and
Transnistria. Personally I think Moldovans should let Gagauzia and Transnistria separate and join Romania.
thats what should have happen but wont cause conflict is profit
As a Romanian, I'm in favor of either letting them separate, or them having increased autonomy. A great national ambition of ours is to have Moldova and Romania join into one nation, with a common culture, language and heritage.
We're not two separate peoples, we are pretty much the same. Various local and great powers have conspired over the centuries to keep us divided and weak, but that won't last forever.
What if they join Russia than? That is the worst idea.
Thank you Professor Ker-lindsay 🙏🙏🙏
Thank you!
For such a small country, Moldova sure has much to deal with. I wonder if the relations with Gagauzia and Transnistria make some Moldovans wish for union with Romania!
Indeed. And I wonder if the Gagauz really would want to break away at that point. EU citizenship or Russian?
The subjects you cover and the content you provide is fantastic James !! Really is a break from the main, even so called independent producers rarely offer anything different to the mainstream when it comes to news and politics. Many thanks for the work you do sir !!
Thanks so much Eamon. I appreciate it enormously. I love making the videos. And the chance to delve deeper into subjects like this is a great learning opportunity for me too. I first learned about the Gagauz 30 years ago when I was a student. I always thought they were fascinating. It was great to have the opportunity to make a video on them.
I don't understand why they would think that eu memebership means reuniting with romania...because eu memebership means exactly that, memebership ship in THE *EU* not romania
Thanks. This is often a common theme when a country joins the EU and a kin state is already a member. Another good example of this was Cyprus and Greece. Interestingly, while everyone thought that Cyprus would just become another Greek vote, it has been much more independent minded. The two countries are close, but one doesn’t get the sense that EU membership amounted to union with Greece.
It is because unification is apparently dificult given "international law" and Moldova joining EU would make the whole process easier,problem is that the goverment is corrupt and foreign influenced to the point even if Moldova joins EU its not a guarantee of reunification.
Average Turk can easily understand Gagauz language due to Gagauz being a Western Oghuz language which descended from the Pecheneg/Uz dialect of Medieval Oghuz language.
And this is why I love doing TH-cam! Thank you so much for that great extra information. 😀
@@JamesKerLindsay This same guy will tell you Kurds love turkey so much they have never and will never ask fir Kurdistan. 😂😂😂😂. his lying by the way. #Free Kurdistan
@@edwardsnowden8821 Lol what does that have to with what he is saying here? Great demonstration of the ad hominem fallacy.
@@mrmaster9963 #Kurds want a free Kurdistan and guys like him hate Kurds and Kurdistan
@@edwardsnowden8821 nope, he's right. I've seen many turks say this
Such an interesting topic. The Soviet Union was truly complex as is Russia today. I hate to see people being absorbed by other cultures and empires (American, Russian, and so on) and losing their own and their languages. Small groups, unfortunately, become pawns in others’ chess matches.
Thanks. You are right. There’s always that danger.
@@JamesKerLindsay Great content!
What culture have US absorbed and which languages have they repressed? 🤔
Why this focus on Russia. As you saw, the video was about the relatively small country of Moldova with it's complexity of Transnistria, Gagugazia, the relations with the EU, Romania, Russia, Turkey etc. The constant overemphasising of Russia here just diminishes all other former soviet countries and plays in the imperialistic narrative of Russia.
As an example - Germany just conquered 3% of the territory of today's Russian Federation. But they act as if Russia and just Russians suffered the most and on top of that just they single handedly beat the Germans in WWII. It was the SU and the soviet people.
@@captainchaoscow Point taken. Just looking at the heavy hitters and who stands to gain by the division. As Moldova is a military entry point into the Russian space, Russia cannot be overlooked.
Unreal didn’t even know such a place existed thanks for enlightening me professor 🙏🏾
Thank you. It is certainly one of the rather less well-known issues I’ve covered!
At the recent Hederlez annual spring festival in Gagauzia, participants at events were asked where they were from. Participants from Chișinău expectedly answered “Chișinău,” to which the Russian-speaking hosts responded “our guests from Moldova.” Gagauzia is in Moldova; the fact that this is not linguistically reflected in Gagauzia is worrisome.
not for them
At 2:40 you showed the results of the 1959 census, not the ones from 2014
Yes, unfortunately it seems so. Well spotted. And apologies.
Hello Professor. You actually just enlarged my mental world map, and I suspect I'm not the only one. Cheers for that.
Thank you so much, Hugo. This was a topic I had wanted to cover for ages.
I saw 1-2 years before a turkish TV documentation about them and their life situation.
The impression was that they keep their culture and tongue, but live in peace, respect & friendship with the majority without any nationalist desire to come closer with Türkiye or another turkic nation.
@christkoenigweg: I think Professor Ker-Lindsay makes it clear that the political tilt in
Gagauzia or Gagauz-Yeri, is towards the Russian Federation, not Türkiye. If you drive across the notional border between Moldova and Gagauzia, the first thing you notice is that road signs change from the Romanian language to Russian. R (Australia)
@Branscombe Thanks. You are absolutely right. While they have a Turkic heritage, and Turkey is working hard to revive that, they are essentially Russified now. Also, if you look at all the Gagauz political sites, they are in Russian. Even the first names are mostly Russian, and even most surnames appear to be less “Turkish” than one might expect.
I do not think they are Turks they are Bulgarians in origin they look exacly like us. And I think Russia is influced them because the culture is very similar and also Russia knows how to brainwash people from the Bulgarian ethnicity. Turkey basically cannot do nothing against it. Russia is too powerfull when it comes to manupolation of Bulgarians/Gagauz people.
At last.... a thorough explanation to this region. I had since Feb 22 wondered what the set up in Moldova was all about.. Many Thanks and SUBBED 👍
Thanks so much, Jon. And a very warm welcome to the channel!
really interesting James!! thanks for this!!!!
Thank you so much Greg. I had wanted to look at this situation for ages. I remember being told about the Gagauz almost thirty years ago when I was doing my masters in conflict. It is such an interesting community.
Never heard about it before. Thank you for covering such deep topics.
Thanks so much. This is a rather unusual and obscure topic, even amongst those who look at secessionism. I had wanted to look at it for ages.
@@JamesKerLindsay Thank you for covering. Heard about Transnistria as Ukraine war is in news. Through your video only came to know that why Moldova is separate country and not part of Romania. Keep making great content.
Just a correction: according to the 2014 Moldovan census, the country's population w/o Transnistria was 2,804,801 and 82.07% were ethnic Romanians/Moldovans.
Thanks Alex. I was working off the current population estimate. But using the 2014 census figures for the ethno-national breakdown of the population.
@@JamesKerLindsay Yeah, I saw that you gave the current population estimate, but in the ethno-national breakdown you gave you seem to have factored in Transnistria (?), and in that case the population would also be higher.
@badofi which shouldn't happen as Transnistria too is Moldova and we won't unite with parts of Moldova only
2:40 - He showed the results of the 1959 census and labeled them from 2014.
Модоване не румыны.😉
I wonder if you might do a video or series about how you stay up to date and what sources of info you like? I think we’d all appreciate hearing your thoughts on following international news. Thanks for everything Professor!!
Thanks so much, Elliot. Great suggestion. I should try to do something on this. I’ve talked about it a little in previous Q&A videos.
1:07 Well, that's the problem, isn't it? The more supranational entities start to take more power, the more nations lose more power, the more regional units get more bold. It's a shifting sand environment and it's going to keep happening. Also, some states just don't get the writing on the wall. I support both Serbia and Ukraine but none of their responses regarding to Kosovo, Crimea or Donbas helped them. Same with Catalunya, I might add, even though for now Spain seems to have won that one but I don't think it will work on the long term.
As a Romanian who supports unification with Moldova, I have to say I really don't understand Gagauzia's position. It's the Stockholm Syndrome all over again, Russia has undermined their language, suppressed their roots, most of the money in those regions is coming from EU (with a huge chunk of investments coming from Romania, yet they still hate our guts) and Turkey (one reason I think Erdogan is a useful "bad guy" from Western perspective, even though his Islamic shtick gets on my nerves) and they still fawn over Russia. Yes, I know, Putin gives them pensions and cheap gas. Is that enough to warrant their hatred of us? I don't think so. Still, Sandu isn't helping right now, in my opinion. Whatever candidate is going to win it's still going to be a pro-Russian one, even if there were frauds, it's just her dispute with Shor. I also don't get Moldova's logic. They receive a lot of economic help from us, they want protection from us in case of a war, yet they keep holding onto two strongly pro-Russian regions rather than support unification with us. Accession into the EU will take probably 10-15 years. It's their choice, after all, but it doesn't make a lot of sense.
I shudder to think of what would have happened if Putin reached Odessa. Both Transnistria and Gagauzia would have probably joined his new Soviet Union. Holding onto two regions who would have done that seems pretty weird. On the other hand, no one wants two new Kaliningrads so from that strategic perspective it makes sense.
Ukraine is home to a significant Gagauz minority. Furthermore, in the Taraclia district of Moldova, which serves as a bridge connecting various Gagauz enclaves within the country, Bulgarians hold the majority.
You ever thought about doing a video on BRICS lately. Because its been recent reports of 30 countries wanting to join the economic group.
Thanks. Great suggestion. Yes, I have.
Dear professor, could you make a new video about Moldova, after the upcoming summit of the European Poliical Community, which will be held in Bulboaca, at Mimi Castle vinery, near Chisinau, but not far from Transnistria and Gagauzia?
Thanks. I will certainly keep an eye on developments.
This is a great channel.for insights that seem to get little mention or explanation elsewhere.
Thank you Professor for taking the time to put videos like these together. I enjoy your videos on Moldova. I never knew about Gagauzia. It’s quite a fascinating story.
how can this dude be a professor. it's a mystery to me.
Thank you for this very interesting and detailed video ! Best wishes from Berlin.
Thank you! Warmest greetings from Cyprus. :-)
I was very surprised when I went to Kishinev to hear turkish language spoken amongst Gagauz people I understood nearly %80 of what they were saying I think that gagauz people are turkish tribe from Central Asia who became orthodox Christian
Thanks. It’s a fascinating question. Where exactly do they come from?
Interesting video!
Thank you!
Actually there has been many more Turkic Christian populations in the past and they do still exist today. Christianity was the first Abrahamic religion of Turkic people.
1,5 million Orthodox Christian Turkic Chuvash exist today, including Turkic Yakut people, being almost half a million, Turkic Altai, some Tatars and others. I am sure part of these populations are shamanistic, agnostic and atheistic naturally.
Chuvash Turkic language is in the Bulgar Turkic group. Their Bulgar ancestors established Old Great Bulgaria in northern Black sea region, Volga Bulgaria and The First Bulgarian Empire. Volga Tatars also acknowledge their ancient Bulgar Turkic heritage, like Chuvash people.
Note: Current Bulgaria has nothing to do with them, they have just the relic name of an old country and culture that got lost eons ago.
From the linguistic point of view, Gagauz and Istanbul Standard Turkish of Turkey are very close! Infact Gagauz is almost the same as the Turkish dialects in northern Bulgaria (Deliorman dialects), minus the Russian and Moldovan words! It is linguistically within the Balkan Turkish dialects. It is always pleasantly surprising for a Balkan Turkish person to hear authentic Gagauz Turkish speak. They are like," These people are like from our town and they are our kinsmen"! To add more twist to this, Gajals are muslim Gagauz. They live in Balkans too. This is also an interesting info for you!
Note: I just posted this separately again, instead of being lost in some other poster's comment. Thank you.
As a romanian I don't understand why the fear of unification. They can visit the majority ethnic magyar regions in Romania as an example. The EU and NATO have imposed large privileges for minorities in Romania, and I see that as a good thing. Also, I live in Dobrogea where we have a sizeable tatar and turk minority which is respected and thrives. Lol, one of my bosses is a turkish-romanian.
Maybe they are scared about those trans-satanist-lgb..whatever the russian propaganda screams about. Romania is more conservative, more like Poland, Bulgaria, etc. Those gagauz should watch turkish TV, instead of russian. Hell, a lot of romanian old ladies already do :)) - Kanal D...
If they get independence smacked between Ro/Md and Ukr how will that benefit them?
It's the Romanian parliament that has imposed large privileges for minorities in Romania, not EU and NATO. :) But yeah, Romania is regarded as a model in terms of the rights of ethnic minorities, which are quite extensive.
Thanks. Good points. But as another commenter pointed out, Romania doesn’t permit territorial autonomy - even if it does grant considerable minority rights. This would have to be explicitly addressed if unification happened. And if it permits continuing autonomy for the Gagauz, it would then be opening the way for others to demand it as well. (Not that I think that is a bad thing.) This might be a too great a worry for Romania. But, equally, I can’t see the Gagauz giving up their current arrangement if unification happened. Something will have to give on one side or the other.
@@JamesKerLindsay True. They would give up autonomy and gain much more. In my opinion at least.
@@giulestinha The romanian parliament does what the party leader tells. And the party leaders get "recommendations" from EU and NATO leaders. I am very happy with this arrangement since I don't have much trust in romanian politicians. I trust the EU and NATO more.
@@baddolphin1423 There's the Hungarian Party (currently a part of the governing coalition) that represents the interests of the Hungarian minority, they don't really need the EU and NATO to look after them. The rights of the Hungarian minority were for the most part obtained at the beginning of the post-Communist period (when there was no EU and NATO in Romania), and then some more rights were obtained gradually after that.
Thanks as always Prof 👍🏻👍🏻
First time viewing your channel . I very much enjoyed the information. Thank you.
Hi James, please talk about Sabah and Sarawak as well, it’s been 59 years after both of these states formed Malaysia along with Singapore and Malaya and instead of promises of
prosperity within the federation. We became underdeveloped and marginalized instead.
Sabah and Sarawak are supposed to be equal partners under the Malaysian Agreement 1963 in which we were supposed
to have autonomy of our own affairs but the 1976 amendment of the federal constitution downgraded our status to the
same as the other states of West Malaysia.
One of the factors is that Malayan government (West Malaysia) have been developing the Western part of Malaysia like
Kuala Lumpur with highways, LRT, monorails and etc while East Malaysia were left in the gutters with the infrastructures
interior parts of Sarawak left with no modern amenities, no paved roads and poor Wi-fi connection until the rural students
have to climb trees to get a good connection. Thats how bad is the conditions in the Eastern parts of Malaysia. Sabah and
Sarawak also has rich natural resources such as petroleum but unfortunately East Malaysia only gets 5 per cent of oil
royalties while the rest of West Malaysia gets the bigger share of 95 per cent.
There are also issues of Islamisation where the children of the native Dayak people whom are predominantly Christians
were forced converted to Islam without the knowledge of their parents by the radical West Malaysian teachers sent to the
state whom have no knowledge of the different cultures of Sarawak, and that is a problem as according to the rules of
Malaysia, anybody who converts to Islam stays a Muslim and cannot convert out of Islam.
So as a result of this, we Sarawakians are fed up of the marginalization of the state and that's why there are local political
parties that calls for independence from Malaysia. Because when we formed Malaysia, we are not supposed to be states
at all. Like how Scotland and Wales is to the UK. so now we are trying our best to get those rights back to us.
Hi Aaron, thanks so much for the heads up on this topic. I will certainly look into doing something on this. My father grew up in Brunei and do knew the area extremely well and I heard baby stories about life there. (He was also a fluent Malay speaker.)
Could a Gagauz or Moldovan clear this up for me (I'm asking genuinely to understand, and not trying to be condescending).
Why are Gagauz so opposed to Moldovan-Romanian Unification, because given that they are already a minority in a Romanian speaking majority country, how would being a minority in a bigger country be worse? Does Romania have a past mistreating the Gagauz? Is it about a belief that autonomy would be quashed in Romania? Or is there some other reason?
not Gagauz or Moldovan but think of it like this Gagauz are 3.3% so if the barely pass the min % one need in democracy to have a voice know in Romania there 19 mil people next to the 2.6 mil n Moldova there so if Unification appends then the will be 0.33%~ of the people so even if all Gagauz will vote to the same party this party will not be even close to get one sit in the new state the smaller present a minority the less voice is as and on this time it so small that the there will be no voice think of it like this if there 10 afro American and 90 white American then the afro American will get 10it will give them a voice but if the they it will change to 10 afro American and 99990 white American the afro American are so small part of the group that they do not get a voice
I'm Irish not Moldovan, so don't take what I say as authoritative, and should any locals wish to correct me on any inaccuracies, then please feel free. But two issues that would arise from unification with Romania is that as far as I am aware the Romanian constitution does not allow for autonomous territories to exist within the country, and only Romanian is recognised as an official language.
Thus the fear is that should Moldova join Romania then Gagauzia would cease to exist as a legally defined political entity, and that while Romania does allow for local municipalities to provide services in minority languages, like Hungarian and German, this would still represent a decline in support and services for the Russian and Gagauz languages.
Everyone there consumes Russian media. Russia can easily switch the views of Gagauzes against Romanians. For example, WW2 is really talked about, specially Romania's crimes against Jews and Gypsies. But we truly have never mistreated Gagauzes, possibly only a certain (not total) lack of minority rights during the interwar period which wouldn't correspond to today In which Romania is a model in minority rights in Europe
Могу я вам ответить? В Гагаузии помнять плохое отношение румынских войск во время войны. Это одна из причин, возможно она главная. Кроме того, незнание румынского языка, хотя молодое поколение знает румынский язык лучше, чем это было в период Советского Союза.
@@lenamd100 this Russian trend of randomly bringing their language to places where it will obviously not be understood is really ugly
I wonder why the Gagauz decided to embrace russification so much. I can't think of any other former Soviet people where it has reached such a level.
Is it because they are a minority in their country and fear Romanian Moldovan dominance?
You already answered your question
I have asked two Gagauz people this question. They insisted that they do not fear the Moldovans. I asked if there's some history of repression that I'm unaware of. They said no.
It seems that it really is a sense that they are such a small minority that would be lost in a sea of Romanians in a Romania-Moldova reunion.
They also do not distrust Moscow in the way that so many others do. The attitude struck me as similar to what you can hear from Pro-Russian Ukranians in Donbass and ethnic Russians in Transnistria. There's a nostalgia for what it seen as a safer lifestyle in the Soviet days, when the basic needs in life were secure. These are parts of Europe that have not done well in the new capitalist era, after all.
It might be hard for us to understand why anyone would want to live in an autocratic system with high levels of corription, but both capitalism and democracy are messy. If you don't have prosperity., a decisive strongman leader can look promising.
@@RobespierreThePoof Thank's a lot for this great answer!
Гагаузы - турки, турки - гагаузы, одной расы, одного языка и диалекта.Братья говорящие на огузском тюркском, ❤азербайджанском=гагаузском=турецком=туркменском❤
Thanks for the video Dr Ker Lindsay!
I knew about the short-lived independence but I was unaware they still used Russia as a counterweight to Moldova joining the EU or Romania.
It will be fascinating to see what happens in Moldova, of course primarily in Transnistria, but certainly here as well. Of course a few months ago there were rumors of a Russian-backed coup in Chisenau so I suppose anything is probably on the table for an increasingly desperate Russia. Let’s just hope the people of Moldova, who have suffered a great deal, are able to dodge the threat of renewed war.
Thanks as always professor!
There will be no war in our Moldova if you don't come to us
Thank you so much for this video. I've always been interested in Gagauzia but haven't readily found any good online resources about ut
Thanks. Yes, there is isn’t a lot of readily available information out there, especially on their history.
What happened in Moldova is exactly what happened in Crimeea. It was annexed by the Russian Empire in the 19th century and colonists slowly started to come in. It didn't happen like in Crimeea where the Tatar majority no longer exist but because of this there is a significant Russian minority in Moldova/Bessarabia. It just sucks that this is a tactic that works. Invade a territory, move your own people in that territory, and now you can claim "self-determination". Imagine if today Russia actually moves Z Russians into captured territories in Ukraine and makes a referendum, that referendum will pass without fake votes since it's basically just Russians voting to be part of Russia. Russians brought in by Russia. It sucks that this works.
Since time exists that is how things worked
From Albanians in Kosovo to Russians in Crimea...
@badofi Soviet leaders had Ukraine fetish and used inflated Ukraine as a launch pad for potential interventions in neighbouring countries
Zakarpatia was given to Ukraine (USSR) only because it shared a border with Hungary, Slovakia and Romania...
17th century mate😊
@badofi It wasnt a mistake,they were intentionatly put in ukraine to create future chaos and conflict,plus to justify an intervention.
The Tatar majority exists in Crimea. They have their own culture, their own language, customs, please stop to be "representative" of the Ctimean Tatars. Go to the Saudis like zelensky and talk about your own problems
Hope the Gagauz get the right to self-determination as it is provided in the 1994 treaty! :)
You know, I have not heard of this until now. Very, very interesting!
While the culture and even existence of Gagauzia is completely new to me, the pattern of malign Russian influence is all too familiar.
Free Gagauzia
It is very professional opinion about situation. There is not any simple solution of Gagauzia`s case.
Thank you very much. There certainly isn’t a simple solution. But one can see why Moldova is very nervous about the situation.
Hi Professor, what is your opinion of the ongoing peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan? Do you think they will sign a peace deal? If so, what does Russia expect to gain in any possible peace deal? (assuming that peace in the region will inevitably lead to a loss of influence of Russia in the Caucasus)
Thanks. There have been sone really interesting developments in the past few days. I will certainly keep an eye on things.
It shouldnt be dificult to realize if you look at all the facts that Gagauzia is just a remanent of russian colonialism in Europe,they clam to be separate identity but they watch russian tv,speak only russian in a overwhelming fashion,are orthodox christians and generally have the russian mindset,without russian interferance and funds this whole separatist movement would be end.
Moldova and EU and Nato should recognize the situation and intervine to end the "autonomy" and the terrorist activities of this russian trojan horse along with Transnistria as a full effort to contain and destroy russian influence and imperialism.
People wanting to be closer to the EU good, people wanting to maintain their culture, language and identity which happens to be Russian or close to Russia, Bad...... that's basically your xenophobic logic.
Excellent talk as always, Professor. Thank you.
I have a question that is an aside: why 'parent' state? I understand that this must be the term in the discipline, but I wonder if the term is patronizing. I don't mean to imply that you are patronizing, certainly, but that term bothers me. I may be the only one, so it won't matter! 🙂
Thank you, and enjoy your time in Cyprus!
Thanks. Great point. I know it doesn’t sound quite right. But it is the term that is used and it conveys the meaning most effectively. It really reflects the way that the international system is completely geared around states.
BUNICI MEI SUNT , GĂGĂUZI SI EU IUBESC TOȚI GĂGĂUZI ♥️♥️🙏🙏🙏🙏♥️♥️♥️SI AU AVUT PROBLEME CU ,MOLDOVA SI UCRAINA ,SI AU IN CONTINUARE MAIA SANDU VREA SĂ SCOATĂ AUTONOMIA GAGAUZA !!
You are Turkic Sun in the world 🈴
Its interesting the location of the people if they side with Russia it could be vital for a future Russian push into that part of europe.
In another comment you said that Europe needs a strong Russia to keep balance. But now you saying that Russia needs all this territory to stage a push into Europe. So how strong exactly Europe needs Russia? We all know by now that Russia will stopped by nothing but a regime change to stop dreaming of world dominance. But watch their performance in the lasr year or so: they just don't have beans.
I know you are a Russian troll, and I'm sure this job is better then digging a trench in Bakhmut, but the world is having enough of your employer.
Hello Professor could you please do a video on the influence of the Pakistani military and how its authoritarianism could lead to a Yugoslavia like situation in that country
You can be assured that pakistan will never be allowed to balkanise.
@@kth6736 Imran Khan disagrees. He is most selfish man I have ever seen and people of Pakistan are illiterate scums so all the best protecting Pakistan
@@kth6736 That was how Yugoslavia was seen until the 1980s, when Tito died.
@@EdMcF1 no one wanted to save Yugoslavia. Literally everyone wants to keep pakistan intact.
Thanks. Pakistan is fascinating. I certainly hope to do more videos on it.
Thank you so much for this! I love how you cover many obscure, lesser known places. Cheers
Thank you! :-)
5:17 Bessarabia was annexed by the USSR in July 1940, not 1941 because in July 1941 its hands were full with fending off the German invasion
What is the reasoning behind the Gagauzians not wanting Romanian reunification? What is there to lose or gain?
Moldavian culture is about the same as the Romanian. Their economy would still benefit. Access to sea, EU citizenship, development projects, etc. And what do they lose? It's not like Moldavians will turn Russian for them.
Is Gagauzia a viable state on its own? Is this situation mostly a result of Russian interference and propaganda? Who stands to gain from this situation? The Gagauz were highly autonomous within Moldova, but as a stand alone state sandwiched between Moldova and Ukraine, how will they fare economically. Unfortunately, they are totally under Russian propaganda and do not think rationally, but emotionally. This is what happens when you let Russian propaganda run freely for 30 years, with no other sources of information available in Russian to those people.
Thanks. Great questions. It would be hard to see how independence would really be viable. But it is theoretically possible. There are smaller states, both in territory and population. But it would be only the third enclave state in the world, alongside San Marino and Lesotho. But it would be the only enclaved state with exclaves (parts of its territory in another state.) it would certainly be a very unusual country!
Even these smaller European countries have an unbelievably diverse ethnic diversity. All these different “mini countries” comprising one whole is not something I am familiar with living in Australia, which is one whole united entity with no internal conflicts. I’ve got a pile of learning to do in order to understand the European whole.
@peterkops6431: 'Australia ... is one whole united entity with no internal conflicts ...' I think you are choosing to ignore the elephant in the room. Since the early colonists tried but failed to ethnically cleanse 'Terra Nullius' of its original inhabitants after 65,000 years of prior possession, the first nation remnants have been systematically discriminated against in every way legally possible short of declaring them 'persona non grata' in their own ancestral lands. Even the current federal government's attempt at including a constitutionally enshrined Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders voice in the government of their country is sowing deep divisions between Australians along racial, language and cultural lines. R (Australia)
@@branscombeR Hi Branscombe👋🏻 Duly noted. Your comments are valid but not really connected to the point I was making. Our system is totally different from that of the European countries I am referring to. And there is absolutely no doubt that the treatment of the original settlers of our great land is absolutely disgusting. Even in these so called enlightened times the discourse regarding the First Nation is nothing but empty placations. I was a country boy from multiple WA towns and have seen first hand the destruction that European settlement has wrought. Now in Perth I see more of the same but to even a worse level. I have nearly always employed at least one Aboriginal lad in my business of over 35 years in construction. Always polite, honest and likeable. Growing up with them certainly got me past any discrimination issues. And the big tell is the lack of Aboriginal people in professional sport. Those boys used to whip our collective arses at every sport but are super unrepresented at the professional level. Unbelievable good cricketers but none playing for Australia? Crazy lack of opportunity and crazy amounts of discrimination.
@@peterkops6431 Thanks for a reasoned reply ... makes a nice change. I have direct, personal and family experience of Moldova and was there recently, so I've read through all the comments in detail. BTW I'm a graduate of UWA ... loved my university years in Perth. Ooroo from Tassie ...
@@branscombeR Yeah mate. People rush to the LCD in comments. Your comment required a reasonable response. It’s an important issue. I get so many crappy responses most of the time. Not a lot of thinking going on out there!
@@branscombeR The upcoming referendum will be divisive. Heaps of silly shit being thrown around already. Humans are quick to hysteria in mob conditions.
Excellent analysis. Thank you!
Stop their EU funding and boot them out
I would have expected Gagauzia to be closer to Turkey. Why Russia?
Thanks. You would think, wouldn’t you? But there has been a really long history of Russification, especially during the z Soviet era. They are now far more Russian than Turkish in orientation and outlook. But it’s interesting that Turkey had been getting more involved and putting in money. But I’m not sure how far it will go. Things seem to have long passed the cultural tipping point. The Gagauz may be happy to take Turkish money, but I’m not sure they will revert to a strong Turkic identity.
Learning about this after Yevgenia Gutsul visited Russia for the World Youth Festival 2024.
Indeed! I meant to post a comment about that. She seems to be on good terms with Putin.
Congratulations for this excellent presentation of the situation, but I have to signal a little error. Moldavia and Wallachia did not unite in 1881, but in 1859. The Kingdom of Romania was proclamed in 1881, indeed, but only because untill 1878 the country was still under Ottoman control (at least in theory). The de facto unification took place earlier. Also, the reoccupation of Bessarabia by the Soviet troops took place in 1940, not in 1941.
Haha! Thanks. If you listen carefully, I said they united, becoming the Kingdom of Romania in 1881. I didn’t say they united in 1881 to become the kingdom of Romania. A small but crucial difference. :-) I did a video on Romania-Moldova unification and so covered this. But sometimes you need to just shorten things to keep the narrative flowing. But I was careful about this.
@@JamesKerLindsay My fault then, probably my ears were too wide open because of my curiosity and I became too eager to intervene in order to correct something. I`m Romanian and I suffer from a national syndrome, so please don`t take it personaly 😂
What a fascinating story! I felt great sympathy for the Gagaouz people until the part where they voted overwhelmingly to increase ties with Russia vs the EU after 2014.... At least that makes it morally easy now! I fully support their independence. Good luck with Russia and goodbye. Just don't ask for help later. Sucks for Moldova too but good riddance really. You're best off without gangrenous limbs.
This is how I see it going:
"We want to join Russia!"
*Gets sent to fight in Ukraine*
"Wait, not like that!"
@@lukajolich7669 yup 🙌.... Or, more optimistically, thanks to all that EU infrastructure, they might just reverse-brexit themselves into the EU after all.
interesting! so basically no matter what religion the turkic people follow be it the Turkish Muslims, Hungarian Catholics or Gaguzian orthodox christians, they somehow find a way to anger the “west” and show at least some respect for the Russians. lol
Haha! Put like that. :-) Seriously, though, it is interesting - and rather sad - to see how Russified the Gagauz have become. Essentially, they speak Russian now.
@@JamesKerLindsay for most people, in most cases, religion comes first and then culture/language and ethnic heritage. that is probably why the Gagauz people feel closer to Russia because it is seen as an orthodox christian country and the protector of their religion.
I myself put faith in Allah/God and my religion - islam first, before anything else and I say this this as a white European Muslim revert from atheism, brought up in England with a British culture but being ethnically Albanian.
@@JamesKerLindsay So you'd be happy if they were Molavanised? Like it or not, the dominant culture usually wins out, eventually, but not always.
I enjoy the videos! Thank you very much!
If there are here Moldovians and Gagauzians here - do Gaugazia really dislike the EU. Wouldn't it be beneficial for the region?
Ok I read in the comments that there is a lot of Russian TV and propaganda - but as a country of 140 000 people - shouldn't they be not a little bit realistic. What would they expect if Moldova and Ukraine join the EU and they would need a VISA if they want to travel more the 30km. Gagauzia landlocked and not even contiguous. We know Russia loves it's frozen conflicts but what can they offer them? Cheap oil and gas and maybe one daily flight to Moscow.
I mean it is really hard to imagine that somebody in Gagauzia would think it would be beneficial to be independent.
In truth, east european people are proudly nationalistic and fiercely protect their culture, language, heritage . East european countries primarily joined EU for financial reasons, and now after 33 years of deindustrialization, depopulation, decline in education standards and healthcare, mafia style governance, and especially the push of incorporating gender ideology, migration and Christianity marginalization , the majority of people feel disillusioned with the so called 'western values' ! Indeed the wealthy western EU countries and multinationals treat us as second rate EU partners . Shameful !
@@danchokonstantinov6735 Thanks for the feedback. I certainly can understand some points. But there is a lot to unpack. I will answer tomorrow.
Just one question before. I know Eastern Europeans are proud Europeans but what do they want to provide for Europe? Will they again bow to every new great power which provides/promises more materialistic output. China, India, Russia, Turkey etc?
You have do consider, do they really care more?
Good night for now.
@@captainchaoscow Thanks ! I said proudly nationalistic, that is proud of own, which is enjoyed and treasured mostly ! What to give to Europe is something which is taking me by surprise ! Do you go into a business deal in order to give, rather than receive ? I can sense the Christian overtone of your line of thought ! Then this conjecture could be reversed , what western europe can give to eastern europe and how much are they willing to give ! I can testify that indeed most sectors of east european economies and servises are taken over by the west and have to be running at profit ! Indeed this is the worst ! Example - rubbish collection was local council business, now it is a private western run business, and this means higher tax for customers ! Same for private electricity companies and so on... you see income is low but expenditure are higher as westerners do not do charitable work, they lay off staff , they increase prices, you may get a better service, but you pay more on a tight budget , and you may not wish for that higher quality after all ! See, I do not say this is good, that is bad, I am just saying this from the local consumer perspective only . And then put forward a financially restricted government, which can not help their subjects , recipe for trouble . And many just have no option but to hit the road , and many get very disappointed and so on ! You might say but that is capitalism . But I can tell you socialism was free and quality education, free and easily accessible health and dental care, free childcare, 2 year paid maternity leave, secure jobs and pensions, ,low crime rates, low drugs and prostitution, social and gender equality and many more securities ... and restrictions ! The mathematics are very complex !
I would think the best solution in the future would be to establish some sort of federated state, with at least 3-4 official languages. Switzerland's constitution could serve as one possible example. So could Canada's. The government of Moldova could fund media and education in multiple languages to offset external influence while fostering autonomy within a common state. Actual unification with Romania would be tempting for a large portion of Moldovans, but I can see why some minorities would fear that.
I took a post-Soviet poli. sci. class during my undergrad in the early 2000s. We were assigned report projects on former SSRs. I was given Moldova, which I had never heard of at the time. I learned a lot, even if the prof of that class was a bit of a jerk.
I'd think that solution is unfeasible with Russian active measures omnipresent in the region.
@@davismichaelwayne7646 For now, yes. I was thinking long-term.
Just some Turkish people who think that they are russians
James - why do you in the modern age label most Pro-Russian narrative as propaganda and rarely (and perhaps never) place any disparaging labels on western media narratives, which these days appear even more questionable than those originating from Russian friendly sources? I enjoy your thoughtful and well research programs on important events, but such labeling undermines your credibility in my eyes and perhaps others.
Would you please make a video about border disputes and geo-politics in South Asia?
Moldova should've done the same thing as Ukraine and ban it's pro-Russian parties.
The country is in its own rights to curb down the separatist tendencies of the Russian proxies of Transnistria and Gagauzia
Unirea cu Romania e inevitabila. Problema e alata noi romanii habar nu avem despre acesti gaguzi
I would really like to know more about the peoples feelings in Gagauzia, meaning I would like to know why they believe that standing alone, as a tiny, 150 000 person, incredibly poor region alone, is better than EU membership?
Yes EU has it's problems but still, do they believe they can stand completely alone?
The Gaguz region is anti Eu because historical issue and it pro russian
Never underestimate stupid people in large groups...
@@theotherohlourdespadua1131 well said. Look at all the stupid stubborn people living in Russia. 😂
Who said the Gagauz will be “completely alone”? There is Turkey which will support Gagauzia due to ethnic ties just as Romania supports “Moldovans”. There is also Russia. In all likelihood Gagauzia will join the Russian Federation along with Transnistria. Before that Russia will have to capture the neighboring parts of Ukraine, including Odessa.
@@theotherohlourdespadua1131 like you and the stupid EU leaders 😂
Great video professor!
tyty, very informative geopolitics analysis
Thanks so much.
Everything the Russian touch burn...
sure bud, everything usa touches explodes
The Gagauz language is almost identical to the Turkish dialect we speak in Bulgaria. There are Gagauz people in Greece and Bulgaria. The only things that separate us is religion and labels. We are Turks they are Gagauz. As long as Gagauz can preserve their language and culture Gagauzia joining the Russian Federation seems to be a better option than becoming a second class minority in any other country of this region. At least Russia has many more fellow Turkic nations in the federation. Joining an Eurasian Union containing sympathetic members is better than joining a European Union full of Turk haters.
Are you seriously suggesting Gagauz become part of Russia?
@@davismichaelwayne7646 Yes.
@@davismichaelwayne7646 Yes, so what?
@@BalkanMode Dostum Bulgaristan Türklerinin asimilasyon durumu nedir? Kültür, dil, din ne kadar korunabildi? Gençlerde durum nasıl? Nüfus oranı ve nüfus artışı nasıl? Hala ırkçılık ve düşmanlık var mı Bulgarlarda size karşı?
🇲🇩 gotta fight like helll
Very well done! Thanks for the information on this mess. Looking at a map, this land is a geographical disaster, surrounded on all sides by people that it considers enemies. It has ZERO future with Russia or any Russian-led associations. Given these folks phobias about Romania, Ukraine might be their best option as a practical matter. Perhaps Turkey could help them in some way.
It is always nice to hear that the convicted bank robber is spending some of the money stolen from Moldova to support Russians against his victims, the Moldovan people. May a just God give him what he truly deserves.
If Moldova merged with Romania then Gaguzia would have the right of self-determination. Interesting.
Thanks. Yes. It’s a rather unusual addition to an autonomy agreement.
It does have such right as per the Law on the Gagauz autonomy. But the Law on the Gagauz autonomy also stipulates that the respective law can be amended with 3/5 of the votes in parliament. So it's rather a non-issue.
Gagauz secession is not possible. Gagauzia is economically dependent on a higher entity, it can not run itself. Independent gagauzia would be one of misery. Furthermore, their territory would be disconnected. An enlarged Romania and a Ukraine with not very favorable views on Russians would not put things easy to a pro russian enclave în The area.
Anyone who truly knows Russian history and understands the Russian mindset could never truly be pro-Russian, because they know that there's nothing positive about Russia, not with its totalitarian fixation.
The declaration of the new governor doesn't leave much to the imagination. Given this decision is taken after Moldova became an official accession member of the EU, it looks to me that the main reason is that the Gagauz politians do not want to see a EU future and instead they prefer a Russian one. One more example how territorial autonomy for a small minority can be dangerous if this is abused by a powerful country or nationalist politicians.
Maybe. But the alternative was a situation like Transnistria, where Russian forces are still stationed and where there is a de facto state. I’d say this situation is still preferable to that one.
@@JamesKerLindsay preferable yes, but it can open the can of worms. Despite of what is happening in Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia, I am still surprised how peaceful the situation is in the Baltic states. EU membership might have helped?
@Professor James Ker-Lindsay: Suggesting a new topic for a future episode: If Russia's invasion of Ukraine scared Sweden and Finland into NATO. Could the same invasion contribute to scare Norway into the EU?
There are increasing voices in Norwegian public debate on a third referendum. The two previous were in 1972 and 1994. Firstly because nobody born after 1976 have been given a chance to have a say in this question. Secondly because of the pandemic, where it was Sweden that gave Norway access to the European vaccine program. Thirdly because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with Norway now the more or less only supplier of Oil and gas to Europe. A possible fourth reason could be Brexit and the turmoil that followed.
This sounds like it could turn into an Abkhazia or South Ossetia situation.
Wherein, Russia effectively takes advantage of the principle of self-determination to create a puppet state (They love to use Kosovo as an example).
They honestly have the right after kosovo if one side could do it why can't the other.
No it could not. Russia borders those Georgian regions, while Gagauzia borders Ukraine, a country that's in conflict with Russia. Russia has no means to physically influence things in Gagauzia.
@B Ilic The difference is Albanian Kosovars were facing literal genocide and ethnic cleansing, whereas Russia simply goes "oh no! Russian colonists aren't given preferential treatment! Time to invade!"
Also, unlike in Kosovo, Russia annexs these regions into itself instead of letting them actually be independent.
@@lukajolich7669 Putin says the same thing that Russia went in to stop the genocide of ethnic Russians in Ukraine at the hands of the kiev regime so don't complain now.