Belarus has been in the news a lot recently. But just how should we understand its relationship with Russia? Or, more to the point, how should we understand the relationship between Putin and Lukashenko? Do you think it is now a vassal state, as many suggest? And do you think that Putin will try to annexe Belarus if (or when) the Ukraine War fails? As ever, let me know your thoughts and comments.
So your argument is that Belarus is a "vassal state" because they de-escalated an intra-Russian conflict? It's not very professorial of you to smear a sovereign nation as a "vassal" for pursuing its own national interest. Are European nations in NATO vassals of the United States?
Short answer: Yes, Belarus and Lukashenko are vassals of RuZZia and Putler. Long Answer: Yes, Belarus and Lukashenko are vassals of RuZZia and Putler, although the former do not like it and prefer a more co-equal relationship with the latter. That said, I don't think RuZZia will be able to annex Belarus, they may try, but I don't think they would be able too. I would bet the Belarusian military and civilians would put up a resistance and even though Belarus's military is unexperienced in war, RuZZia cannot afford to fight another conflict.
Lukashenko is clearly to a large extent beholden due economic assistance and all the other ties, but he's still putting up a fight with all the sneakiness and opportunism he's got. Though annexation will be a hard sell given the election protests and what happened with Ukraine. They may mostly use Russian, but Belarusian is not a dead language by any account, so the alternative cultural identity can still experience a revival. Ukraine has already provided some spark, and untoward movements by RF might stimulate even more, so it's risky.
A lot has been made of Lukashenko's dependence on Putin but it works both ways. If there were a coup in Belarus, it would almost certainly be over for Putin in Ukraine. Also, I think far too much has been made of the Lukashenko/Putin relationship. I don't believe there is much love lost there, rather it's necessity driving the partnership.
Agree that vassal state may not be the best term - perhaps before, but Russia is weaker (and is weakening) than we realised. It’s definitely a friendship borne of necessity rather than need. Lukashenko probably has some resentment that Putin has had much more success following a similar model of dictatorship despite Lukashenko’s regime being older. But he needs Putin (or at least a friendly regime in Moscow) to prop up his own regime, especially now that domestic support is basically nonexistent. And while I’m sure Putin would like to wholly incorporate Belarus into Russia, what with his whole Russkiy Mir thing, Belarus’ existence as a friendly foreign country continues to be handy for Putin. Dictators all the way down…
Lukashenko back in the 90s made the Belarusian Parliament tied to the Russian Duma. He hoped to absorb Russia into Belarus but yeltsin passed the torch to Putin and he made Lukashenko his subservient. No one like yeltsin but Putin actually was pretty strong and popular and overshadowed the would be uniter of the former Soviet union.
«…Браты мае, мужыкі родныя. З-пад шыбеніцы маскоўскай прыходзіць мне да вас пісаці, і, можа, раз астатні. Горка пакінуць зямельку родную і цябе, дарагі мой народзе. Грудзі застогнуць, забаліць сэрца, - но не жаль згінуць за тваю праўду… Няма ш, браткі, большага шчасця на гэтым свеце, як калі чалавек у галаве мае розум і науку… Но як дзень з ноччу не ходзіць разам, так не ідзе разам наука праўдзіва з няволяй маскоўскай. Дапокуль яна ў нас будзе, у нас нічога не будзе, не будзе праўды, багацтва і ніякай наукі, - адно намі, як скацінай, варочаць будуць не для дабра, но на пагібель нашу… Бо я табе з-пад шыбеніцы кажу, Народзе, што тагды толькі зажывеш шчасліва, калі над табою Маскаля ўжэ не будзе. Твой слуга Яська-гаспадар з-пад Вільні»
Seeing what Belarus has become, it’s not hard to see why Ukraine doesn’t want that same fate either. Then again, for historical reasons, Russification was more successful in Belarus than in Ukraine, which was more successful in saving its own culture and language even in the hardest of times.
@@bilic8094 yes it is. Ukrainians are happier without Russia :) Everyone in Eastern Europe is happier without Russia. Romania has 2x the GDP per capita of Russia L O L
Kudos to you for covering this subject. With Ukraine launching its counter-offensive and Putin having just avoided an uprising, what Belarus does could really affect history.
@@bilic8094 Ironically Ukraine has gained more territory in a month than Russia did in one year of trying to take Bakhmut which is now at risk of being encircled by Ukraine.
@@xp_studios7804 Yes it did. More spies masquerading as diplomats? Plus a couple of extra votes in the General Assembly. It would be like Texas joining alongside the United States.
@@xp_studios7804Yep. Belarus was a founding member of the UN, so has been a member since 1945. Same with Ukraine, it also was a founding member and had a seat in the UN despite being part of USSR. So in reality, USSR had three UN seats. Belarus, Ukraine and USSR. Then Russia took over the USSR seat in 1991, the other two just kept their seats.
Considering Putin has always dreamed about rebuilding the Russian Empire, his view on Belarus is basically the view of a 17th century despot, who claimed that land of the Rus must be united. But which land Putin wants to? Putin lives in the 17th century mindset, but with modern maps of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union to lay claim on Belarus and the rest of Eastern Europe. Lukashenko is basically the governor of Belarus province, not President.
Similarly to Gagauzia, Belarusian stands pretty week in Belarus compared to Russian. As a linguist I find this very sad, especially considering that was makes Belarusian Belarusian are some of the interesting differences it has from Russian. A simple example is that both have akanye where unstressed o's are pronounced as a's, so in both Russian and Belarusian the word for milk is pronounced ma-la-KO. But it is spelled moloko in Russian and malako in Belarusian. Helps a little in reading knowing that o and ë (yo/jo) are always stressed. Oh, and that Belarusian consistently spells yo separately from ye (ë vs e) whereas Russian often just merges these to ye (e). - It will be interesting to see what happens to Belarus in the coming decades. Łukašenka's reign will end one way or another and it will be interesting to see who succeeds him, and what direction that person will take Belarus. Of course, by then the Union State can have taken effect but based on all the protests I don't think Belarusian would want that. It remains to be seen and I will be following this. Thanks for another interesting video, Professor Ker-Lindsey. I am always looking forward to these.
It is like Irish in Ireland. English became more wide-spread, more common, more useful and at the end, it has become the dominant language. Linguistically, these processes in Ireland and Belarus were very similar
@@Ch-xk5tv Interesting. Should've thought of that. There is also in Belarus the phenomenon of Trasianka, which is a mixed Belarusian-Russian language. The few times Łukašenka has spoken Belarusian I'm told it's been more like Trasianka. I kinda feel that some similar but more of a "Trasianka light" thing takes place in Ireland where even though people speak English there are certain things that you will use Irish vocabulary for. The President, PM, and Police being probably the three most prominent examples. I'm not 100% if the comparison is completely fair as I haven't delved into this very deeply but it seems similar on a surface level.
@@weepingscorpion8739 Of couse it is easier to mix Russian with Belarusian, because they are closely related. English and Irish aren't directly related. When there is a different system of grammar and sentence structure, it is less likely for a mixed-variety to develop
@@Ch-xk5tv Yes I am aware of the genetics of the Indo-European language family so hence why I said that the comparison probably wasn't 100% fair. That said, of course, you wouldn't easily or quickly borrow say grammatical structures, but vocabulary is easy to borrow back and forth. It was mostly this vocabulary angle I wanted to go for.
But Gaguzia is acting on it's own will to want to be a Russian adjacent peoples, and of course Russia didn't force them so how is it sad if they don't to speak their native language
You say "our story really begins when Belarus came under Russian imperial rule". I know that's a phrase you always use so I'm not criticizing, but this question is actually important for many Belarusians. While Lukashenko's regime mostly emphasizes unity with Russia, the opposition focuses much more on the times of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. And it seems like this is a big split between people who see themselves as close to Russians, and people who see themselves as having fought Russians for centuries, until eventually being conquered. In my home country, Lithuania, there is a small amount of worry (though not at the highest levels and nothing too serious) that if the Belarusian opposition takes control, it could bring a new conflict with Lithuania, perhaps similar to the Bulgaria/North Macedonia one, over our shared history, over the question of who is the true successor of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. With some thinking that Belarus will want to steal our history. While of course the average non-historian Lithuanian also believes that some the shared history was only ours. :)
I think by that he means regarding the issue of Belarus perhaps being a modern-day vassal of Russia the story can be considered as starting when Russia first conquered the territory of Belarus, not that Belarus's history begins then.
Well Lithuania has the advantage of being named Lithuania and ethnically majority Lithuanian despite the much smaller population. So they can't claim that you aren't Lithuania, unlike the whole Bulgaria/North Macedonia situation.
@@bernadmanny Ha, well, there are some Belarusian nationalists who claim that all the historical Lithuanians were actually Belarusians and what are called Lithuanians now are actually Samogitians (you can look up what that is exactly but it doesn't really matter). And the conflict between Bulgaria/North Macedonia is largely over historical figures AFAIK. The naming conflict was with Greece.
@@justasklimas9572 Bulgaria has its own naming issue with NM as they claim that they're ethnically and linguistically the same and are blocking NM accession to the EU until they recognise the commonality.
I think you put it nicely by saying "our shared history". Those Belarusians who don't lick Russian boots, indeed see the Grand Duchy as one of the key periods in the formation of Belarusian identity (but not the only and not the earliest one). Though, most people see the Duchy as a common state where different ethnicities were cooperating for the greater good. True, some people go as far as claiming that the Duchy was 100% Belarusian/Litvin, but I'd say it's a loud minority with weird ideas. I see that the majority is pretty adequate in terms of perceiving the history as shared. Well, as long as we're not called "Bulbashniks" that were conquered by true Lithuanians to be their slaves for picking potatoes (heard a lot of that the day before yesterday for obvious reasons (congrats, btw)). Then, of course, people would get emotional. Good point about average non-historian Lithuanians. Just out of personal interactions, I've seen Lithuanians being quite aggressive whenever someone pops out to say that we can't put an equality sign between the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and modern Lithuania, and everything is more complex. I think there's more understanding of common history as common on the Belarusian side. E.g. rare people try to find "the true successor". I mean, we were in this state together quite happily, and both ethnicities contributed... Overall, no worries. I don't think there's gonna be a fight but more of a scholarly discussion between historians on some aspects. The only thing is that rn Lukashenka's regime tries to erase the history of the Grand Duchy and show it as if Belarus was occupied and oppressed by Lithuanians. That's a very useful narrative for those "proud patriotic" Lithuanians who want to portray Belarusians as having 0 impact on the Duchy except for being slaves for Lithuanians. Also, with the topic being discouraged, Lithuania pretty much has a monopoly on how to portray the Grand Duchy to Westerners. Perhaps, it's gonna be harder to make wild claims with Belarusian historians actually having a say. That's the only "threat" I can picture
It might have been useful to point out that Ukrainian is the closest language to Belarusian and for considerable periods the two peoples shared a common literary language Ruthenian and culture (especially the 14th to 17th centuries) In addition their current border divides Polissia, an area where a dialect exists that is transitional between the two languages
It also may be worth pointing out that whilst the Ukraine government has initially targeted the Russian speaking peoples of Ukraine since 2014 and bombing Donbas, they are also alienating the Hungarian speaking peoples of Ukraine in the west, and probably any other people who do not naturally speak pure Ukrainian. I was in Kherson many times from 2011, where it was becoming uncomfortable to speak Russian in the street, even though in that Oblast the majority were Russian speakers. Since WWII many people were descendants of Russian, Czechia and Hungarian parents who were displaced after that war. Now the Kiev government wants to kick them out of Ukraine, as if that would help Ukraine economy. Also Crimea has been Russian since 1783 except for a period of "administration" from 1954 when Ukraine was part of USSR. The majority living in Crimea are Russian and Russian military as Sevastopol has been home to the Russian fleet since 1783.
At Wimbledon this week, one of the Belarussian players was asked how 'big' Wimbledon was in Russia. Her reply 'You know I'm not from Russia, right?". Was your video anticipated? In other news, Federer was asked how big Wimbledon is in Germany.
@@Spacemongerr For the United States, English is the _de facto_ national language. English, in addition to Māori, is an offical language for New Zealand. God Save The King. 🇬🇧 🇳🇿 🇺🇸
Personally, I think that it doesn't matter how you slice it: Moscow and Minsk are in a collision course as long as Putin keeps the *«Russkiy Mir»* («Russian World») idea. And Lukashenko must be aware (I bet that most aware that any of us) that the questionig of the Urkanian statehood and legitimacy as a separe ethnic group could be easily applied to Belarus. Only time will tell if all the post-coup situation with Prigozhin is leading to something like developing a more professional belarussian army.
It may be impossible to know, but I wonder what the people of Belarus want. Lukashenko has made unilateral choices that might make sense for him personally but that doesn't really say much about the direction Belarus would go without him.
I might be wrong, of course, but my impression is that Belarusians see themselves as different and separate from Russia. The regime needs to stay cosy with Pootin, but the average Belarusian isn't impressed.
Are you aware Belarus has a far better living standard compared to Ukraine! So all the fellows clamoring for Lukashenko to go should know the grass always appears greener on the other side
Historically, the Belarusians have never really been independentbut always subservient to their neighbors: Poland/Lithuania for many centuries to 1794, subsequently Russia to 1991. The people just want to be left in peace and politically free. Putin simply wants a return to the situation bfore 1991, that is, a recreated Soviet Union with both Belarus and Ukraine fully reintegrated under Moscow control.
You could also have touched on the number of Belorussians volunteering to help the Ukrainian war effort or cause sabotage such as on the railways, which must also be unsettling to Minsk.
I can't understand why the West hasn't made any overtures to Lukashenka. He's constantly referred to as being Russia's closest ally, yet the very obvious differences between Putin and Lukashenka are not exploited in any way by the West.
That's because the West is led by the US, who is led by its Cold War tunnel vision thinking: if you're not with us, you're against us. If that wasn't the case, USA could've easily divided Russia from China's embrace over the last 10 years,as both countries have no cultural, racial ties or religious ties to each. Instead, the return of their Cold War mentality to NATO after Georgia 2008 have drove them closer together. So don't expect any enlightened thinking in the West towards separating Lukashenko from Putin, even if it sounds logical.
On the surface: Yes, Belarus is RuZZia's vassal state. Deep dive: There appears to be a tug-o-war between RuZZian and Belarus, RuZZia wants Belarus's full submission whereas Belarus wants to be an equal partner with RuZZia on the international stage. In the 1990s, Lukashenko's power was at it's peak, RuZZia was a basket case ran by a buffoon, so he had an easy time and the upper hand coordinating relations between the two states. However, Yeltsin was a wreck of a man who let RuZZia experience an economy and military decline, but when Putler took control in 1999 he proved to be a master politician. He quickly turned the tables on Lukashenko and Belarus, but by that time, Belarus was too tied to its relationship with RuZZia, allowing Putler to pull the country into his sphere of influence. While Belarus tries to maintain their autonomy, the country is very dependent on RuZZia, which ultimately could lead to the doom of the Lukashenko regime, judging by how things are going on in Ukraine.
Thanks for the history lesson. The “global south” applauds BRICS for challenging the status quo, but they never think about what they never ask what the future will look like. They should understand that while they are looking forward others are looking backward at a history when they were dominant Imperial states (China, Russia, and possibly India). I wouldn’t put it past Brazil or South Africa either.
Hey Prof. I follow Macroeconomics and I am intrigued by the discussion that is going on in relation to the formation of the BRICS states and the putative demise of the US Dollar. This has obvious geopolitical implications. I was wondering if you would be interested in talking on a video on this global Geopolitical phenomenon. Thanks for your very interesting work. I find it very informative.
Your final statement is ambiguous. "Ultimately, an independent Belarus and an inependent Lukashenko appear increasingly incompatible." Do you mean that both items together are incompatible with the way things are going in the world, or do you mean that the two items are incompatible with each other?
The problem Russia has is that Belorusians and Ukrainians were always the...better Russians. Russia, the historical Russia, not the Russian Empire or Caucasus or Siberian Colonies( Yes, Russia has colonies) was always the Ohio of the Tsarist Empire. Even now, in 2023, Belarus builds better tractors, buses, you name it. Ukraine is an industrial behemoth, even if it's outdated.
Industrial behemoth? Ukraine ? Obviously never been. It was the poorest country in Europe. Nothing was working except few bigger cities. Pension was 4 times as little as Russian . Why do you think Russia has 6 mln Ukrainian refugees nie and most people after finishing uni went to Moscow?
@@olivka7560 Ukraine has better roads than Russia. Antonov, Krivoi rog, Azovstal, Donbas. Yes, Ukraine had the lowest gdp per capita, but Russia is even worse. Russia is a waste of land
Belarus has been called the Russia of Europe for years. Russian ambition is to absorb Belarus by 2030. Unless they have a revolution and joins the EU and NATO.
@@adineatha9766 What you are saying makes no sense. We Slavs are Europeans. Current political differences will not change the facts. The fact that the Russians conquered Siberia does not mean that they are not Europeans. Spaniards are probably culturally more similar to Moroccans than to Swedes, but that does not make them less European.
Excellent video as always. Do you believe the presence of Russian forces in Belarus inhibits any potential for a Belarusian reorientation towards the EU?
Thanks so much. Great question. Yes. But I also think Lukashenko has passed the point of no return anyway. His brutal crackdown on protestors has probably made it impossible for the EU to embrace him - even if it means splitting him off from Putin.
The problem for Belarus is that getting rid of Lukashenko would most likely trigger a Russia intervention or full annexation. My view is that the only viable transition would be a military coup which would make it clear that they have no interest in NATO
Thanks. Great point. I agree. Trying to overthrow Lukashenko by popular means would probably see Russia step in and proclaim the completion of the Union State. But I suspect that even a military coup could provoke the same result at this stage. If they are pro-Belarus independence they will be seen as a threat. If they are pro-Russia, then they may well want to implement the union. Things don’t look good. Essentially, it seems that the end of Putin followed by the swift overthrow of Lukashenko is probably the country’s best hope at this stage.
If only Ukraine has taken the same steps that Belarus did after the fall of the USSR… Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia should all be United under one banner.
Thank you for this great video. It peels off layer on layer of the complexity of the relationship at a State level and leader level. It certainly gives the lie to the "it's just like Mexico" trope . On a more general note - I'd be interested in a video sometime about the tension between the principle stated at 0:55 of the international system currently consisting of "equal sovereign states" on the one hand, and the situation which devlops when an smaller, poorer "equal sovereign state" directly borders a much larger, much richer one - like Byelorus/Russia, Mexico/USA, India/Bangladesh, even China/Kyrgystan.
Thanks. Great point. Of course, sovereignty on paper is one thing, but sovereignty and equality in the real world are very different. But even in many of these other cases, one gets a sense that the "junior" state is still fundamentally independent. They can take their own decisions without having it dictated to them. Of course, there will be consequences if they go against the bigger state too overtly. But even then the senior partner has to be careful not to be seen to be bullying the state. The US can push its neighbours, and push them hard. But it can't order them. In this case, there are very good questions about whether Belarus has any sort of real autonomy.
It's interesting to hear this from the side of a nation against which Americans threatened sanctions without any evidence, destroying one of our institutions and dragging other sectors down with it. And after judicial proceedings, it turned out that the Americans were wrong, but the damage had already been done. And it is called 'each country should be independent and govern itself'.
Four questions come to mind. 1) what is the long term dynamic for Belarus from neighboring the EU economic guggernaut and other cultural connections to Poland (now a regional political and military power) and the post war Ukrainian entity. 2) Considering Minsk's interest in high tech, how attractive is a postwar embargoed revanchist Russia with a dismal economic near future? 3) If Moscow gets what Putin insisted on when announcing the Ukrainian invasion of an iron clad treaty with the West, then don't Belarus' options change? 4) Apres the last dictator or sooner, what happens if there's another orange revolution? The tectonics appear to have a western drift no matter how slow that drift is.
The most likely outcome to that scenario would be an uprising that would eventually be crushed, with its most relevant leaders and members being forced to leave after it
Great video and interesting analysis as always. As Lukashenko needs Putin to stay in Power, Putin needs Belarus for his narrative, an overthrowing of Lukashenko would make Putin loose a lot of credibility and influence. On another note, it has been 2 years since i became a member of the channel, and i wanted to thank you for providing us with such quality video you post every week. Keep up the great work!
It is beneficial for Belarus to be with Russia, because Russia is an exporter of food (Belarus is a net importer of food in terms of kilocalories), energy resources, the nuclear industry, subsidies for more than 120 billion dollars over 20 years. The EU has nothing to offer Belarus, and they know it.
@@zoranbeader6441 Of course, the average Belarusian is poorer than the average EU resident. I say that the EU has nothing to offer Belarus. Also, the EU does not need Belarus either for economic or demographic reasons, and therefore no one will invest. The EU does not even want to take Ukraine, which is now fighting for the interests of these lazy people.
Would enjoy a status update on tensions between Morocco and Monaco. The latter is still receiving the former’s mail and packages. Both nations are studying the last war over Postal Errors, the bloody Iraq-Iran war. Hopefully, calmer heads prevail in Slovakia and Slovenia.
Belarusian is not that similar to Russian. In terms of vocabulary, it is much closer to Ukrainian, Rusyn and Polish. It's such a shame they are letting their own, beautiful language die. Moreover, Western Belarusians have more ethno-religious ties with Poland and Lithuania, but also with Ukraine
Belarus stuck with Russia and Ukraine did not. As bad as I feel for the Ukrainian people, I feel Ukraine played the political game badly. Belarus might be a semi/vassal state to Russia, but it's alive. Ukraine is now also a semi/vassal state to NATO and it's pretty much destroyed! Idk I feel like both Russia and Ukraine got 'sucked in' to this horrific war, by the West! The question is how and why?
Thanks so much. This is something I have been thinking about too. There’s so much that just doesn’t add up. Interestingly, if it was a feint, then it seems that Lukashenko wasn’t in on the ruse. Further evidence that Putin just doesn’t take him seriously?
@JamesKerLindsay And Lukashenko was sick at the Victory Day parade, which made him look weak to all who saw. That sort of undermining could be part of a gradual plan.
Belarussian' direction is highly dependent on its leader Lukashenko. It is not inconceivable what happened in Ukraine in 2014 and all subsequent events including on-going war could repeat themselves north of the border.
Yeltsin did a jitsu move against lukashenko. I wondered why he did the pact with Belarus if he knew that days later he may have to give his power to someone else.
I am from Norway, but my ethnicity is Uzbek, which meant I came from the former Soviet Union, so I have a fair share there. Yes, Belarus, together with Azerbaijan, Armenia and the rest of Central Asia, are basically Russian vassals. Expanding wider, you may also include Myanmar, Syria, Serbia, Erdogan's Turkey, Orban's Hungary, Iran and North Korea. Putin has built a system that relies heavily on maintaining a neo-Soviet legacy that, even after independence, we have to submit to Russia each year, either by economic migrants or trading agreements to exchange for autonomy. Since we are much weaker than Russia, we have to follow that exploitative system. This is the Russian-led tributary regime, and Lukashenko is basically, the governor masqueraded as President of Belarus. Hungary and Turkey are recent entrances, but this is because they have sold their countries to Russia. While they are NATO members, they have been working to sow discords and divisions. Recently Russia has ignited racial tensions in Central Asia, and even questioned Kazakhstan's sovereignty, yet Turkey and Hungary instead blamed the West for what Russia is doing. The more closer they are to Russia, the more Russian influence will destroy these countries within.
Your definition of a vassal state is too broad. Only Belarus and Syria potentially fall under that category. The rest are just nations with close ties to Moscow. It would be like saying that the UK and France are vassal states of the US.
@@AJSrbin "Serbia likes to play both sides". That is the best way to extract concessions from both sides. Just threaten to move in one direction until you get what you want.
@@yoloswaggins7121 Nobody had a better chance of doing that than Ukraine zelensky could of stayed neutral and he could of did business with the eu and Russia but he picked the tragic route destroying the country.
@@AJSrbin Can you read? I'm asking in what way did Zelesnky refuse to do business with Russia? Because he did do business with Russia. They had close economic ties right up until the invasion. And what's funny is this whole thing started because Russia explicitly refused to allow Ukraine to do business with both the EU and Russia. They forced Yanukovich to cancel the EU trade deal in favour of Russia's trade deal by threatening economic retaliation, whereas as the EU were perfectly happy to allow Ukraine to sign both deals.
"the two countries share extremely close ethnolinguistic and cultural bonds" Is that true? What proportion of people in Belarus are Tatar or Buryat? Something that Russia does exceptionally well is hide the fact that it is in fact a modern day empire.
Great video Professor! The wrinkle with trying to report on matters of int’l relations is that the situation is oftentimes in flux. News just this morning is that neither Prigozhin nor his Wagner mercenaries are in Belarus, perhaps having smelled a trap laid for them.
Multiple scenarios going on here. Lukashenko is having to think about a Russia losing scenario. Having a 25k well trained mercenary army based in his country will cement his power. This also puts into question the trust he has of his armed forces. The question also has to be asked when Russia lose in Ukraine what will happen to the Belarusian soldiers who are fighting in Ukraine. This must be a concern for him. Is Prigozhin still a powerful figure in the criminal underworld? Is Prigozhin making St Petersberg is defacto capital and solidifying power. Thus making Luka impotent in this whole scenario with him coming worse off. Have we seen any Stalinist purges of the state since the insurrection? Does this make Putin look even weaker. So many questions and scenarios that are very intriguing.
Under lukashenko, belarus is just a Russian puppet and can never be truly independent. It is either lukashenko is overthrown and die to make way for a new belarus or belarus will end up being a russian region which borders both EU and Nato.
They are all independent. I keep hearing that the EU is somehow a vassal of the United States. It isn't. Have you ever seen the trade disputes between the EIU and US? And what about when France and Germany opposed the US invasion of Iraq? There are any number of examples of severe divergences. And the US simply can't order Europe to do anything, either collectively or individually. Really, I'm all for having serious discussions about international relations, but let's start with accurate points.
@@JamesKerLindsay European States are Vassals that's just reality. The whole world has been shocked at this turn of events. The USA no longer has to fear competition from Europe so the attempted heist hasn't been a complete failure.
@@joelburt please explain how they were forced to join nato,tell me ONE nation who was invaded by nato forces and forced gun to the head to join the alliance would you?
Excellent question. It is Lukashenko in Russian and Lukashenka in Belarusian. I use Lukashenko to make a very clear point about the prominent use of Russian as the first language in the country, and his decision to align with Russia.
Zelensky is a US american puppet, whose party, of course coincidentally, bears the same name as his Netflix series "Sluha Narodu" (Servant of the People). He was so convincing in the role that he was elected president, just like in the series! Well, life still writes the best stories. Isn't it?
@@ImperialDiecast I find the story, that 280 million people who bowed to the Director of the CIA between 1989 and 1993 even funnier!!! Try again, boy ;)
as far as i know there has never been any wall or border control between Belarus & Russia, u can just drive straight through to Russia from Minsk without any controls. So Belarus has never really had defined borders in a sense. Essentially Belarus has always been inside the Russian single market/customs union. So it's bit like maybe what Ireland was like to the UK centuries ago. Just used by the bigger imperial power for geopolitical reasons so yes a vassal state.
I would say that Belarus was a tributary state before the latest elections and has since then acted as something in between Tributary state status and an actual vassal.
They certainly should. Sadly, not when they’re under a dictator. That’s the whole problem. But it’s clear that Lukashenko nevertheless fears them in some way.
@@JamesKerLindsay I would suspect he fears the people more than anything. He clings on to power only because his state security apparatus is willing to do his bidding so ruthlessly..and they in turn will fear being held to account one day for their own crimes.
Since protests have been proven fruitless in Belarus after 2020, either a military coup or an armed revolution similar the Euromaidan in Ukraine a decade ago would eventually be the two remaining options for the country to get rid of Alex Lukashenko and his goons for good. However, it may only be the beginning whatever the outcome as a potential war between Russia and a post-Lukashenko Belarus equivalent to or worse than the ongoing bloodbath in Ukraine might be looming.
it's weird that the current dictator of Belarus almost at one point was planning to take over Russia because the two nations were discussing union and merging into a singular nation that is until Putin arrived
No,it was there decision to join America which they quickly did to get away from Russia,,especially Eastern Europe they've learned there lesson of being under russian rule and there not going back
This is what happens when a pig farmer who thinks himself smarter than everyone around him bites off more than he can chew. As a result, an entire country is in danger of disappearing.
@@JamesKerLindsayFor information on why such a mass protest failed, take a look at the detailed article in Intelligence online about the infiltration of regime special agents into the opposition office.
Interesting, I thought he was on about the uks relationship and how the devolved countries that form part of the uks are treated by england, the similarities are close it's an easy mistake to make.
I have to say this is a bit of an odd comment. The devolved countries are not states under international law. I happen to agree that England is two powerful in the union. But this is a really strange point to make here. It really is a case of comparing two very different situations.
Belarus is largely subordinate to Russia but as Putin is fairly occupied Lukashenko will pull on his lease as much as he can and take any advantage he can. It wouldn't surprise me if Putin fell from power if Lukashenko made another play for leadership of the "union state", however long term health of the Belarussian state is unlikely.
Ok the idea that Lukashenko offered sanctuary seems absurd. Have you seen the interview where Lukashenko says he's hoping to be a colonel in Putin's army? It's exactly like Gogol's "Government Inspector". Lukashenko is a clown. He's a thug, but a clown nevertheless. He's only does anything if it's sanctioned by Putin.
Not at all . Historically from the beginning of 19th century after the Napoleon wars it had became Russian territory until the first world war . Then after the first World war and revolution it became a republic as other republics . Then they followed all the agreements that were signed on their territory .
Lukashenko wanted to lean towards the West but then the West called him dictator, so what else could he do? Worse thing is that Poland, England, Germany became serves of Kyiv. Kyiv rules Europe.
Белорусы воистину братский народ. В Белоруссии не будет возрождения нацизма, как в Украине. Во время второй мировой войны немецкие нацисты убили 25% населения. Вдумайтесь - убит каждый четвёртый. Вам, тупым англосаксам, этого не понять. После распада СССР Беларусь сохранила свою промышленность, в отличии от Украины, где промышленность была разворована и уничтожена. Отношения России и Беларуси - это пример как НЕЗАВИСИМЫЕ страны могут дружить с взаимной выгодой. А не воевать во имя националистических идей, или во имя главенства в мире или эфемерной независимости или ещё чего то подобного. Кто мешал Украине точно так же жить дружно с Россией? Явно не Россия. И кто бы говорил о зависимости, так только не вы. Британская империя с её колониями по всему миру сотни лет обворовывала, грабила, убивала десятки стран. Сегодня США диктует свои правила Европе. При этом Европейские страны свято уверены, что они действуют в своих интересах. Та же Украина будет воевать до последнего украинского солдата, и не увидит мир, пока США не решат, что их цели достигнуты. Почитайте доклад Сороса в 1993 году. Так как раз распланировано создание буферного государства между Европой и Россией (Украина), а затем нанесение ущерба России за счет людских ресурсов буфера, техники и технологий запада. Что мы и наблюдаем.
Belarus has been in the news a lot recently. But just how should we understand its relationship with Russia? Or, more to the point, how should we understand the relationship between Putin and Lukashenko? Do you think it is now a vassal state, as many suggest? And do you think that Putin will try to annexe Belarus if (or when) the Ukraine War fails? As ever, let me know your thoughts and comments.
when will you shed light on the israeli occupation?
So your argument is that Belarus is a "vassal state" because they de-escalated an intra-Russian conflict? It's not very professorial of you to smear a sovereign nation as a "vassal" for pursuing its own national interest.
Are European nations in NATO vassals of the United States?
Short answer: Yes, Belarus and Lukashenko are vassals of RuZZia and Putler.
Long Answer: Yes, Belarus and Lukashenko are vassals of RuZZia and Putler, although the former do not like it and prefer a more co-equal relationship with the latter. That said, I don't think RuZZia will be able to annex Belarus, they may try, but I don't think they would be able too. I would bet the Belarusian military and civilians would put up a resistance and even though Belarus's military is unexperienced in war, RuZZia cannot afford to fight another conflict.
Lukashenko is clearly to a large extent beholden due economic assistance and all the other ties, but he's still putting up a fight with all the sneakiness and opportunism he's got. Though annexation will be a hard sell given the election protests and what happened with Ukraine. They may mostly use Russian, but Belarusian is not a dead language by any account, so the alternative cultural identity can still experience a revival. Ukraine has already provided some spark, and untoward movements by RF might stimulate even more, so it's risky.
At 2:23 Russia lies on Belarus's eastern boarder, not its western one as stated in the video.
Man I've learned so much from this channel
A lot has been made of Lukashenko's dependence on Putin but it works both ways. If there were a coup in Belarus, it would almost certainly be over for Putin in Ukraine.
Also, I think far too much has been made of the Lukashenko/Putin relationship. I don't believe there is much love lost there, rather it's necessity driving the partnership.
Agree it appears to be strictly transactional.
Agree that vassal state may not be the best term - perhaps before, but Russia is weaker (and is weakening) than we realised. It’s definitely a friendship borne of necessity rather than need.
Lukashenko probably has some resentment that Putin has had much more success following a similar model of dictatorship despite Lukashenko’s regime being older. But he needs Putin (or at least a friendly regime in Moscow) to prop up his own regime, especially now that domestic support is basically nonexistent. And while I’m sure Putin would like to wholly incorporate Belarus into Russia, what with his whole Russkiy Mir thing, Belarus’ existence as a friendly foreign country continues to be handy for Putin. Dictators all the way down…
Lukashenko back in the 90s made the Belarusian Parliament tied to the Russian Duma. He hoped to absorb Russia into Belarus but yeltsin passed the torch to Putin and he made Lukashenko his subservient.
No one like yeltsin but Putin actually was pretty strong and popular and overshadowed the would be uniter of the former Soviet union.
Another excellent video. Thank you!
Thank you so much!
«…Браты мае, мужыкі родныя. З-пад шыбеніцы маскоўскай прыходзіць мне да вас пісаці, і, можа, раз астатні. Горка пакінуць зямельку родную і цябе, дарагі мой народзе. Грудзі застогнуць, забаліць сэрца, - но не жаль згінуць за тваю праўду… Няма ш, браткі, большага шчасця на гэтым свеце, як калі чалавек у галаве мае розум і науку… Но як дзень з ноччу не ходзіць разам, так не ідзе разам наука праўдзіва з няволяй маскоўскай. Дапокуль яна ў нас будзе, у нас нічога не будзе, не будзе праўды, багацтва і ніякай наукі, - адно намі, як скацінай, варочаць будуць не для дабра, но на пагібель нашу… Бо я табе з-пад шыбеніцы кажу, Народзе, што тагды толькі зажывеш шчасліва, калі над табою Маскаля ўжэ не будзе.
Твой слуга
Яська-гаспадар з-пад Вільні»
Seeing what Belarus has become, it’s not hard to see why Ukraine doesn’t want that same fate either. Then again, for historical reasons, Russification was more successful in Belarus than in Ukraine, which was more successful in saving its own culture and language even in the hardest of times.
And Ukraine is better today ?
@@bilic8094 In the long run hopefully.
@@bilic8094 yes it is. Ukrainians are happier without Russia :) Everyone in Eastern Europe is happier without Russia. Romania has 2x the GDP per capita of Russia L O L
@@bilic8094 Better than what?
'Seeing what Belarus has become, it’s not hard to see why Ukraine doesn’t want that same fate either' - LOL You made my day
Kudos to you for covering this subject. With Ukraine launching its counter-offensive and Putin having just avoided an uprising, what Belarus does could really affect history.
So far the counter offensive is a massive failure.
@@bilic8094 Ironically Ukraine has gained more territory in a month than Russia did in one year of trying to take Bakhmut which is now at risk of being encircled by Ukraine.
@@bilic8094 So far ukraine took in a month more than Russia took in a year... these are pure facts... pure mathematical facts.
@@ElTigre12024 Now if they could only make it to the first line of defense.
This fabled spring counteroffensive😂 its damn near autumn
Fun fact: Belarus joined the UN before Russia, which only joined it as the successor state to the Soviet Union.
Belarus had a UN seat while still in the Soviet Union, no?
@@xp_studios7804 Yes it did. More spies masquerading as diplomats? Plus a couple of extra votes in the General Assembly. It would be like Texas joining alongside the United States.
@@xp_studios7804Yep. Belarus was a founding member of the UN, so has been a member since 1945.
Same with Ukraine, it also was a founding member and had a seat in the UN despite being part of USSR.
So in reality, USSR had three UN seats. Belarus, Ukraine and USSR.
Then Russia took over the USSR seat in 1991, the other two just kept their seats.
Belarus had its own seat and that’s the seat it took.
Multiple times during this video I've been amazed at how up to date it is. Keep it up (I know you will)
Haha! Thanks. I actually had to rerecord some bits in the hours before uploading! This was about as fresh as it comes. :-)
Considering Putin has always dreamed about rebuilding the Russian Empire, his view on Belarus is basically the view of a 17th century despot, who claimed that land of the Rus must be united. But which land Putin wants to? Putin lives in the 17th century mindset, but with modern maps of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union to lay claim on Belarus and the rest of Eastern Europe. Lukashenko is basically the governor of Belarus province, not President.
Similarly to Gagauzia, Belarusian stands pretty week in Belarus compared to Russian. As a linguist I find this very sad, especially considering that was makes Belarusian Belarusian are some of the interesting differences it has from Russian. A simple example is that both have akanye where unstressed o's are pronounced as a's, so in both Russian and Belarusian the word for milk is pronounced ma-la-KO. But it is spelled moloko in Russian and malako in Belarusian. Helps a little in reading knowing that o and ë (yo/jo) are always stressed. Oh, and that Belarusian consistently spells yo separately from ye (ë vs e) whereas Russian often just merges these to ye (e). - It will be interesting to see what happens to Belarus in the coming decades. Łukašenka's reign will end one way or another and it will be interesting to see who succeeds him, and what direction that person will take Belarus. Of course, by then the Union State can have taken effect but based on all the protests I don't think Belarusian would want that. It remains to be seen and I will be following this. Thanks for another interesting video, Professor Ker-Lindsey. I am always looking forward to these.
It is like Irish in Ireland. English became more wide-spread, more common, more useful and at the end, it has become the dominant language. Linguistically, these processes in Ireland and Belarus were very similar
@@Ch-xk5tv Interesting. Should've thought of that. There is also in Belarus the phenomenon of Trasianka, which is a mixed Belarusian-Russian language. The few times Łukašenka has spoken Belarusian I'm told it's been more like Trasianka. I kinda feel that some similar but more of a "Trasianka light" thing takes place in Ireland where even though people speak English there are certain things that you will use Irish vocabulary for. The President, PM, and Police being probably the three most prominent examples. I'm not 100% if the comparison is completely fair as I haven't delved into this very deeply but it seems similar on a surface level.
@@weepingscorpion8739 Of couse it is easier to mix Russian with Belarusian, because they are closely related. English and Irish aren't directly related. When there is a different system of grammar and sentence structure, it is less likely for a mixed-variety to develop
@@Ch-xk5tv Yes I am aware of the genetics of the Indo-European language family so hence why I said that the comparison probably wasn't 100% fair. That said, of course, you wouldn't easily or quickly borrow say grammatical structures, but vocabulary is easy to borrow back and forth. It was mostly this vocabulary angle I wanted to go for.
But Gaguzia is acting on it's own will to want to be a Russian adjacent peoples, and of course Russia didn't force them so how is it sad if they don't to speak their native language
You say "our story really begins when Belarus came under Russian imperial rule". I know that's a phrase you always use so I'm not criticizing, but this question is actually important for many Belarusians.
While Lukashenko's regime mostly emphasizes unity with Russia, the opposition focuses much more on the times of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. And it seems like this is a big split between people who see themselves as close to Russians, and people who see themselves as having fought Russians for centuries, until eventually being conquered.
In my home country, Lithuania, there is a small amount of worry (though not at the highest levels and nothing too serious) that if the Belarusian opposition takes control, it could bring a new conflict with Lithuania, perhaps similar to the Bulgaria/North Macedonia one, over our shared history, over the question of who is the true successor of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. With some thinking that Belarus will want to steal our history. While of course the average non-historian Lithuanian also believes that some the shared history was only ours. :)
I think by that he means regarding the issue of Belarus perhaps being a modern-day vassal of Russia the story can be considered as starting when Russia first conquered the territory of Belarus, not that Belarus's history begins then.
Well Lithuania has the advantage of being named Lithuania and ethnically majority Lithuanian despite the much smaller population. So they can't claim that you aren't Lithuania, unlike the whole Bulgaria/North Macedonia situation.
@@bernadmanny Ha, well, there are some Belarusian nationalists who claim that all the historical Lithuanians were actually Belarusians and what are called Lithuanians now are actually Samogitians (you can look up what that is exactly but it doesn't really matter).
And the conflict between Bulgaria/North Macedonia is largely over historical figures AFAIK. The naming conflict was with Greece.
@@justasklimas9572 Bulgaria has its own naming issue with NM as they claim that they're ethnically and linguistically the same and are blocking NM accession to the EU until they recognise the commonality.
I think you put it nicely by saying "our shared history". Those Belarusians who don't lick Russian boots, indeed see the Grand Duchy as one of the key periods in the formation of Belarusian identity (but not the only and not the earliest one). Though, most people see the Duchy as a common state where different ethnicities were cooperating for the greater good. True, some people go as far as claiming that the Duchy was 100% Belarusian/Litvin, but I'd say it's a loud minority with weird ideas.
I see that the majority is pretty adequate in terms of perceiving the history as shared. Well, as long as we're not called "Bulbashniks" that were conquered by true Lithuanians to be their slaves for picking potatoes (heard a lot of that the day before yesterday for obvious reasons (congrats, btw)). Then, of course, people would get emotional.
Good point about average non-historian Lithuanians. Just out of personal interactions, I've seen Lithuanians being quite aggressive whenever someone pops out to say that we can't put an equality sign between the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and modern Lithuania, and everything is more complex. I think there's more understanding of common history as common on the Belarusian side. E.g. rare people try to find "the true successor". I mean, we were in this state together quite happily, and both ethnicities contributed...
Overall, no worries. I don't think there's gonna be a fight but more of a scholarly discussion between historians on some aspects. The only thing is that rn Lukashenka's regime tries to erase the history of the Grand Duchy and show it as if Belarus was occupied and oppressed by Lithuanians. That's a very useful narrative for those "proud patriotic" Lithuanians who want to portray Belarusians as having 0 impact on the Duchy except for being slaves for Lithuanians. Also, with the topic being discouraged, Lithuania pretty much has a monopoly on how to portray the Grand Duchy to Westerners. Perhaps, it's gonna be harder to make wild claims with Belarusian historians actually having a say. That's the only "threat" I can picture
Another fantastic & informative video filling huge gaps left by the news. Thank you.
Thank you so much!
It might have been useful to point out that Ukrainian is the closest language to Belarusian and for considerable periods the two peoples shared a common literary language Ruthenian and culture (especially the 14th to 17th centuries) In addition their current border divides Polissia, an area where a dialect exists that is transitional between the two languages
Absolutely no baring on what's happening now
It also may be worth pointing out that whilst the Ukraine government has initially targeted the Russian speaking peoples of Ukraine since 2014 and bombing Donbas, they are also alienating the Hungarian speaking peoples of Ukraine in the west, and probably any other people who do not naturally speak pure Ukrainian.
I was in Kherson many times from 2011, where it was becoming uncomfortable to speak Russian in the street, even though in that Oblast the majority were Russian speakers. Since WWII many people were descendants of Russian, Czechia and Hungarian parents who were displaced after that war. Now the Kiev government wants to kick them out of Ukraine, as if that would help Ukraine economy. Also Crimea has been Russian since 1783 except for a period of "administration" from 1954 when Ukraine was part of USSR. The majority living in Crimea are Russian and Russian military as Sevastopol has been home to the Russian fleet since 1783.
Most people in Ukraine and Belarus speak Russian
todays population of belarus is ethnically russian. belarus language is not spoken, it is just symbolic.
@@andersbergman457 most of ukraine speaks russian at home too and everyone there knows it
Belarus Referendum question: 'Do you wish to be ruled by a) A former Kolkhoz manager or b) a former KGB officer?
At Wimbledon this week, one of the Belarussian players was asked how 'big' Wimbledon was in Russia. Her reply 'You know I'm not from Russia, right?". Was your video anticipated? In other news, Federer was asked how big Wimbledon is in Germany.
BelaruSian , WITH ONE S, DONT USE THE COLONIAL TERMINOLOGY
How big is Wimbledon in the United States, Australia and New Zealand? I mean, English is the national language for these countries right? 🤔
@@Spacemongerr Federer should have been asked how big Wimbledon is in France and in Italy. 🇨🇭🇩🇪 🇫🇷 🇮🇹
@@user-kc1tf7zm3b Sorry, I don't play sportsball, I was just commenting that NZ and USA don't have a national/official language.
@@Spacemongerr For the United States, English is the _de facto_ national language. English, in addition to Māori, is an offical language for New Zealand.
God Save The King. 🇬🇧 🇳🇿 🇺🇸
Wow. Thank you for this very important background!!
Thanks. It is a fascinating case. And a far more complex relationship than many realise.
Personally, I think that it doesn't matter how you slice it: Moscow and Minsk are in a collision course as long as Putin keeps the *«Russkiy Mir»* («Russian World») idea. And Lukashenko must be aware (I bet that most aware that any of us) that the questionig of the Urkanian statehood and legitimacy as a separe ethnic group could be easily applied to Belarus. Only time will tell if all the post-coup situation with Prigozhin is leading to something like developing a more professional belarussian army.
Thanks for an informative, compact, and well articulated video!
Thank you very much indeed!
-excellent job recounting the situation and interesting analysis
Thank you very much indeed!
It may be impossible to know, but I wonder what the people of Belarus want. Lukashenko has made unilateral choices that might make sense for him personally but that doesn't really say much about the direction Belarus would go without him.
I might be wrong, of course, but my impression is that Belarusians see themselves as different and separate from Russia. The regime needs to stay cosy with Pootin, but the average Belarusian isn't impressed.
Are you aware Belarus has a far better living standard compared to Ukraine! So all the fellows clamoring for Lukashenko to go should know the grass always appears greener on the other side
Historically, the Belarusians have never really been independentbut always subservient to their neighbors: Poland/Lithuania for many centuries to 1794, subsequently Russia to 1991. The people just want to be left in peace and politically free. Putin simply wants a return to the situation bfore 1991, that is, a recreated Soviet Union with both Belarus and Ukraine fully reintegrated under Moscow control.
You could also have touched on the number of Belorussians volunteering to help the Ukrainian war effort or cause sabotage such as on the railways, which must also be unsettling to Minsk.
Excellent point. Yes, many Belarusians have signed up to fight for Ukraine.
Thanks! I always appreciate your videos.
Excellent video, fantastic analysis. Thank you, professor!
Thanks so much! Have a great weekend.
I can't understand why the West hasn't made any overtures to Lukashenka. He's constantly referred to as being Russia's closest ally, yet the very obvious differences between Putin and Lukashenka are not exploited in any way by the West.
That's because the West is led by the US, who is led by its Cold War tunnel vision thinking: if you're not with us, you're against us. If that wasn't the case, USA could've easily divided Russia from China's embrace over the last 10 years,as both countries have no cultural, racial ties or religious ties to each. Instead, the return of their Cold War mentality to NATO after Georgia 2008 have drove them closer together. So don't expect any enlightened thinking in the West towards separating Lukashenko from Putin, even if it sounds logical.
They have made attempts already. That's the WHY in why Putin placed nuclear weapons in Belarus.
On the surface: Yes, Belarus is RuZZia's vassal state.
Deep dive: There appears to be a tug-o-war between RuZZian and Belarus, RuZZia wants Belarus's full submission whereas Belarus wants to be an equal partner with RuZZia on the international stage. In the 1990s, Lukashenko's power was at it's peak, RuZZia was a basket case ran by a buffoon, so he had an easy time and the upper hand coordinating relations between the two states. However, Yeltsin was a wreck of a man who let RuZZia experience an economy and military decline, but when Putler took control in 1999 he proved to be a master politician. He quickly turned the tables on Lukashenko and Belarus, but by that time, Belarus was too tied to its relationship with RuZZia, allowing Putler to pull the country into his sphere of influence. While Belarus tries to maintain their autonomy, the country is very dependent on RuZZia, which ultimately could lead to the doom of the Lukashenko regime, judging by how things are going on in Ukraine.
Thanks for the history lesson. The “global south” applauds BRICS for challenging the status quo, but they never think about what they never ask what the future will look like. They should understand that while they are looking forward others are looking backward at a history when they were dominant Imperial states (China, Russia, and possibly India). I wouldn’t put it past Brazil or South Africa either.
Hey Prof. I follow Macroeconomics and I am intrigued by the discussion that is going on in relation to the formation of the BRICS states and the putative demise of the US Dollar. This has obvious geopolitical implications. I was wondering if you would be interested in talking on a video on this global Geopolitical phenomenon. Thanks for your very interesting work. I find it very informative.
Putative is the word
I fear the US will try to rescue the dollar via war with China.
Your final statement is ambiguous. "Ultimately, an independent Belarus and an inependent Lukashenko appear increasingly incompatible."
Do you mean that both items together are incompatible with the way things are going in the world, or do you mean that the two items are incompatible with each other?
Yes. :-)
The problem Russia has is that Belorusians and Ukrainians were always the...better Russians. Russia, the historical Russia, not the Russian Empire or Caucasus or Siberian Colonies( Yes, Russia has colonies) was always the Ohio of the Tsarist Empire. Even now, in 2023, Belarus builds better tractors, buses, you name it.
Ukraine is an industrial behemoth, even if it's outdated.
Industrial behemoth? Ukraine ? Obviously never been. It was the poorest country in Europe. Nothing was working except few bigger cities. Pension was 4 times as little as Russian . Why do you think Russia has 6 mln Ukrainian refugees nie and most people after finishing uni went to Moscow?
@@olivka7560 Ukraine has better roads than Russia.
Antonov, Krivoi rog, Azovstal, Donbas. Yes,
Ukraine had the lowest gdp per capita, but Russia is even worse. Russia is a waste of land
@@DerDop Certified clown 🤡
@@DerDoplol smartest Yankee bot
To say "Russia is moving nuclear weapons to Belarus" sounds like "The United States is moving nuclear weapons to Puerto Rico."
sounds like The United States is moving nuclear weapons to the Netherlands, oh wait they've done that a long time ago
Many forget about the Milk War of 2009!
Thanks Prof 👍🏻👋🏻 Missed this one and the latest. I always enjoy these mini lectures!
Thank you so much Peter. I really and truly appreciate it. I hope all is well at your end.
Everybody happy in Belarus.
Great channel, keep up the good work!
Awesome 👏
Thank you.
@@JamesKerLindsay
Belarus has been called the Russia of Europe for years.
Russian ambition is to absorb Belarus by 2030. Unless they have a revolution and joins the EU and NATO.
Russia is in Europa.
Many consider Russia a Asian country.
I myself consider "European" part of Russia as Northwest Asia.
@@adineatha9766 What you are saying makes no sense. We Slavs are Europeans. Current political differences will not change the facts. The fact that the Russians conquered Siberia does not mean that they are not Europeans. Spaniards are probably culturally more similar to Moroccans than to Swedes, but that does not make them less European.
Excellent video as always. Do you believe the presence of Russian forces in Belarus inhibits any potential for a Belarusian reorientation towards the EU?
Thanks so much. Great question. Yes. But I also think Lukashenko has passed the point of no return anyway. His brutal crackdown on protestors has probably made it impossible for the EU to embrace him - even if it means splitting him off from Putin.
The problem for Belarus is that getting rid of Lukashenko would most likely trigger a Russia intervention or full annexation. My view is that the only viable transition would be a military coup which would make it clear that they have no interest in NATO
Thanks. Great point. I agree. Trying to overthrow Lukashenko by popular means would probably see Russia step in and proclaim the completion of the Union State. But I suspect that even a military coup could provoke the same result at this stage. If they are pro-Belarus independence they will be seen as a threat. If they are pro-Russia, then they may well want to implement the union. Things don’t look good. Essentially, it seems that the end of Putin followed by the swift overthrow of Lukashenko is probably the country’s best hope at this stage.
If only Ukraine has taken the same steps that Belarus did after the fall of the USSR… Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia should all be United under one banner.
"Russia lies along its western border" (2:20). I think you meant to say eastern.
Oh bugger! Yes, you’re right! Long week. 🫢🫣🙏🏻
Thank you once again professor for your incredible insight! keep up the amazing work 🙌🏾
Thank you for this great video. It peels off layer on layer of the complexity of the relationship at a State level and leader level. It certainly gives the lie to the "it's just like Mexico" trope .
On a more general note - I'd be interested in a video sometime about the tension between the principle stated at 0:55 of the international system currently consisting of "equal sovereign states" on the one hand, and the situation which devlops when an smaller, poorer "equal sovereign state" directly borders a much larger, much richer one - like Byelorus/Russia, Mexico/USA, India/Bangladesh, even China/Kyrgystan.
Thanks. Great point. Of course, sovereignty on paper is one thing, but sovereignty and equality in the real world are very different. But even in many of these other cases, one gets a sense that the "junior" state is still fundamentally independent. They can take their own decisions without having it dictated to them. Of course, there will be consequences if they go against the bigger state too overtly. But even then the senior partner has to be careful not to be seen to be bullying the state. The US can push its neighbours, and push them hard. But it can't order them. In this case, there are very good questions about whether Belarus has any sort of real autonomy.
Smaller states do not mind being "pushed" by larger states if both share the same values, like the US and Canada or France and Luxemburg.
80% of Ukrainians using russian language before 2014 and about a half of population now speaking on russian language
Ukraine is a vassal state of the USA. So what exactly are you trying to tell us by your video?
LONG LIVE BIELARUS´! 🏳❤🏳
It's interesting to hear this from the side of a nation against which Americans threatened sanctions without any evidence, destroying one of our institutions and dragging other sectors down with it. And after judicial proceedings, it turned out that the Americans were wrong, but the damage had already been done.
And it is called 'each country should be independent and govern itself'.
How about US vassal states : UK and Australia!!
Neither of those countries are US vassal states.
@@yoloswaggins7121 🤣🤣🤣
Don’t forget Ukraine has been a vassal state of the USA since 2014
Four questions come to mind.
1) what is the long term dynamic for Belarus from neighboring the EU economic guggernaut and other cultural connections to Poland (now a regional political and military power) and the post war Ukrainian entity.
2) Considering Minsk's interest in high tech, how attractive is a postwar embargoed revanchist Russia with a dismal economic near future?
3) If Moscow gets what Putin insisted on when announcing the Ukrainian invasion of an iron clad treaty with the West, then don't Belarus' options change?
4) Apres the last dictator or sooner, what happens if there's another orange revolution?
The tectonics appear to have a western drift no matter how slow that drift is.
What about the Belarussians? Would they accept without a fight their incorporation into Russia? Or would there be uprisings?
The most likely outcome to that scenario would be an uprising that would eventually be crushed, with its most relevant leaders and members being forced to leave after it
Great video and interesting analysis as always. As Lukashenko needs Putin to stay in Power, Putin needs Belarus for his narrative, an overthrowing of Lukashenko would make Putin loose a lot of credibility and influence.
On another note, it has been 2 years since i became a member of the channel, and i wanted to thank you for providing us with such quality video you post every week. Keep up the great work!
It is beneficial for Belarus to be with Russia, because Russia is an exporter of food (Belarus is a net importer of food in terms of kilocalories), energy resources, the nuclear industry, subsidies for more than 120 billion dollars over 20 years.
The EU has nothing to offer Belarus, and they know it.
I'm sorry, are you suggesting the average Belarusian is more prosperous than an average European, even ex-Warsaw pact European?
@@zoranbeader6441 Of course, the average Belarusian is poorer than the average EU resident.
I say that the EU has nothing to offer Belarus. Also, the EU does not need Belarus either for economic or demographic reasons, and therefore no one will invest. The EU does not even want to take Ukraine, which is now fighting for the interests of these lazy people.
Would enjoy a status update on tensions between Morocco and Monaco. The latter is still receiving the former’s mail and packages. Both nations are studying the last war over Postal Errors, the bloody Iraq-Iran war. Hopefully, calmer heads prevail in Slovakia and Slovenia.
Belarus is more independent than the entire Europe, the discussion should be which Europe country is not a vassal state.
Belarusian is not that similar to Russian. In terms of vocabulary, it is much closer to Ukrainian, Rusyn and Polish. It's such a shame they are letting their own, beautiful language die. Moreover, Western Belarusians have more ethno-religious ties with Poland and Lithuania, but also with Ukraine
Really?
How many years back are we talking? 1000?
What religious ties???
Belarus stuck with Russia and Ukraine did not. As bad as I feel for the Ukrainian people, I feel Ukraine played the political game badly. Belarus might be a semi/vassal state to Russia, but it's alive. Ukraine is now also a semi/vassal state to NATO and it's pretty much destroyed! Idk I feel like both Russia and Ukraine got 'sucked in' to this horrific war, by the West! The question is how and why?
YOU R THE BESTT ❤❤❤
Terrific - thank you. Looking for more. Is Lukashenko more canny than he seems. And was the Prigozhin uprising all a hoax/feint.
Thanks so much. This is something I have been thinking about too. There’s so much that just doesn’t add up. Interestingly, if it was a feint, then it seems that Lukashenko wasn’t in on the ruse. Further evidence that Putin just doesn’t take him seriously?
@JamesKerLindsay And Lukashenko was sick at the Victory Day parade, which made him look weak to all who saw. That sort of undermining could be part of a gradual plan.
@@Ricky_Baldy Indeed. This whole situation is really strange.
I don't know how you can feint 3 helicopters and a plane down plus 15 dead Russian soldiers it's a weird incident.
Belarussian' direction is highly dependent on its leader Lukashenko. It is not inconceivable what happened in Ukraine in 2014 and all subsequent events including on-going war could repeat themselves north of the border.
Are you related to the Whitney's of Seattle?
Yeltsin did a jitsu move against lukashenko. I wondered why he did the pact with Belarus if he knew that days later he may have to give his power to someone else.
why do people take the surface area of a country as a mesure of? power, economy? surface area does not really translate into either of those
I am from Norway, but my ethnicity is Uzbek, which meant I came from the former Soviet Union, so I have a fair share there.
Yes, Belarus, together with Azerbaijan, Armenia and the rest of Central Asia, are basically Russian vassals. Expanding wider, you may also include Myanmar, Syria, Serbia, Erdogan's Turkey, Orban's Hungary, Iran and North Korea. Putin has built a system that relies heavily on maintaining a neo-Soviet legacy that, even after independence, we have to submit to Russia each year, either by economic migrants or trading agreements to exchange for autonomy. Since we are much weaker than Russia, we have to follow that exploitative system. This is the Russian-led tributary regime, and Lukashenko is basically, the governor masqueraded as President of Belarus.
Hungary and Turkey are recent entrances, but this is because they have sold their countries to Russia. While they are NATO members, they have been working to sow discords and divisions. Recently Russia has ignited racial tensions in Central Asia, and even questioned Kazakhstan's sovereignty, yet Turkey and Hungary instead blamed the West for what Russia is doing. The more closer they are to Russia, the more Russian influence will destroy these countries within.
Your definition of a vassal state is too broad. Only Belarus and Syria potentially fall under that category. The rest are just nations with close ties to Moscow.
It would be like saying that the UK and France are vassal states of the US.
@@AJSrbin "Serbia likes to play both sides".
That is the best way to extract concessions from both sides. Just threaten to move in one direction until you get what you want.
@@yoloswaggins7121 Nobody had a better chance of doing that than Ukraine zelensky could of stayed neutral and he could of did business with the eu and Russia but he picked the tragic route destroying the country.
@@bilic8094 What are you even talking about? Zelensky didn't do business with Russia? In what regards?
@@AJSrbin Can you read?
I'm asking in what way did Zelesnky refuse to do business with Russia? Because he did do business with Russia. They had close economic ties right up until the invasion.
And what's funny is this whole thing started because Russia explicitly refused to allow Ukraine to do business with both the EU and Russia. They forced Yanukovich to cancel the EU trade deal in favour of Russia's trade deal by threatening economic retaliation, whereas as the EU were perfectly happy to allow Ukraine to sign both deals.
"the two countries share extremely close ethnolinguistic and cultural bonds" Is that true? What proportion of people in Belarus are Tatar or Buryat? Something that Russia does exceptionally well is hide the fact that it is in fact a modern day empire.
Great video Professor! The wrinkle with trying to report on matters of int’l relations is that the situation is oftentimes in flux. News just this morning is that neither Prigozhin nor his Wagner mercenaries are in Belarus, perhaps having smelled a trap laid for them.
Hello Prof, will you make Germany the US vessel state, next?
Don't understand why you didn't call out that Belarus is obviously in a proxy war against Ukraine.
What about the Polish occupation of the western Parts of White Russia/Belarus after WWI?
Who's the US's next target? They seem to have a new one almost every year. Got to keep building the empire. How many military bases did you say?
Multiple scenarios going on here. Lukashenko is having to think about a Russia losing scenario. Having a 25k well trained mercenary army based in his country will cement his power. This also puts into question the trust he has of his armed forces. The question also has to be asked when Russia lose in Ukraine what will happen to the Belarusian soldiers who are fighting in Ukraine. This must be a concern for him. Is Prigozhin still a powerful figure in the criminal underworld? Is Prigozhin making St Petersberg is defacto capital and solidifying power. Thus making Luka impotent in this whole scenario with him coming worse off. Have we seen any Stalinist purges of the state since the insurrection? Does this make Putin look even weaker. So many questions and scenarios that are very intriguing.
Under lukashenko, belarus is just a Russian puppet and can never be truly independent. It is either lukashenko is overthrown and die to make way for a new belarus or belarus will end up being a russian region which borders both EU and Nato.
Please supply a list of Independent European States.
They are all independent. I keep hearing that the EU is somehow a vassal of the United States. It isn't. Have you ever seen the trade disputes between the EIU and US? And what about when France and Germany opposed the US invasion of Iraq? There are any number of examples of severe divergences. And the US simply can't order Europe to do anything, either collectively or individually. Really, I'm all for having serious discussions about international relations, but let's start with accurate points.
@@JamesKerLindsay European States are Vassals that's just reality. The whole world has been shocked at this turn of events. The USA no longer has to fear competition from Europe so the attempted heist hasn't been a complete failure.
@@JamesKerLindsaythen why were they all forced into nato
@@joelburt please explain how they were forced to join nato,tell me ONE nation who was invaded by nato forces and forced gun to the head to join the alliance would you?
Is it Lukashenka or Lukashenko? I’ve seen it spelled both ways.
Excellent question. It is Lukashenko in Russian and Lukashenka in Belarusian. I use Lukashenko to make a very clear point about the prominent use of Russian as the first language in the country, and his decision to align with Russia.
Thanks for the clarification.
Zelensky is a US american puppet, whose party, of course coincidentally, bears the same name as his Netflix series "Sluha Narodu" (Servant of the People). He was so convincing in the role that he was elected president, just like in the series! Well, life still writes the best stories. Isn't it?
144 million people bowing to a kgb agent is a funnier story.
@@ImperialDiecast I find the story, that 280 million people who bowed to the Director of the CIA between 1989 and 1993 even funnier!!! Try again, boy ;)
Poland should be radioactive 😎
as far as i know there has never been any wall or border control between Belarus & Russia, u can just drive straight through to Russia from Minsk without any controls. So Belarus has never really had defined borders in a sense. Essentially Belarus has always been inside the Russian single market/customs union. So it's bit like maybe what Ireland was like to the UK centuries ago. Just used by the bigger imperial power for geopolitical reasons so yes a vassal state.
I would say that Belarus was a tributary state before the latest elections and has since then acted as something in between Tributary state status and an actual vassal.
Don't the Belarusian people come into this at all?
They certainly should. Sadly, not when they’re under a dictator. That’s the whole problem. But it’s clear that Lukashenko nevertheless fears them in some way.
@@JamesKerLindsay I would suspect he fears the people more than anything. He clings on to power only because his state security apparatus is willing to do his bidding so ruthlessly..and they in turn will fear being held to account one day for their own crimes.
Hey let’s do a video of Ukraine is losing its independence since becoming a vassal state of the USA after the 2014 coup?
Well, that’s objectively not true.
I’m all for a good discussion. But at least keys start it with some serious points, made in a serious way.
Since protests have been proven fruitless in Belarus after 2020, either a military coup or an armed revolution similar the Euromaidan in Ukraine a decade ago would eventually be the two remaining options for the country to get rid of Alex Lukashenko and his goons for good. However, it may only be the beginning whatever the outcome as a potential war between Russia and a post-Lukashenko Belarus equivalent to or worse than the ongoing bloodbath in Ukraine might be looming.
In a word, YES
Indeed. Or perhaps ‘yes, but’?
it's weird that the current dictator of Belarus almost at one point was planning to take over Russia because the two nations were discussing union and merging into a singular nation
that is until Putin arrived
A vassal state to a vassal state that's just sad
Well, there is that, of course! :-)
@@JamesKerLindsay you’re the man James keep up the good work
Google "Lukashenko potatoes"
😂😂😂🙏🏻
They don't call him the Potato Führer for nothing!
Obviously memes of him harvesting potatoes with Prigozhin are all the rage these days.
As the entire Europe not lose their independence to the United States of America?
No,it was there decision to join America which they quickly did to get away from Russia,,especially Eastern Europe they've learned there lesson of being under russian rule and there not going back
How?
This is what happens when a pig farmer who thinks himself smarter than everyone around him bites off more than he can chew. As a result, an entire country is in danger of disappearing.
Respect to the Belarusian soldiers who are fighting in Ukraine for our and your freedom! We have a common enemy - this is Russian imperialism
Yes. Great point. It does seem that many Belarusians have signed up to fight for Ukraine.
@@JamesKerLindsayFor information on why such a mass protest failed, take a look at the detailed article in Intelligence online about the infiltration of regime special agents into the opposition office.
However unlikely if Russia collapses do you believe that Lukashenko’s regime could survive?
PS Russia borders Belarus to the East not the West
Interesting, I thought he was on about the uks relationship and how the devolved countries that form part of the uks are treated by england, the similarities are close it's an easy mistake to make.
I have to say this is a bit of an odd comment. The devolved countries are not states under international law. I happen to agree that England is two powerful in the union. But this is a really strange point to make here. It really is a case of comparing two very different situations.
Belarus is largely subordinate to Russia but as Putin is fairly occupied Lukashenko will pull on his lease as much as he can and take any advantage he can. It wouldn't surprise me if Putin fell from power if Lukashenko made another play for leadership of the "union state", however long term health of the Belarussian state is unlikely.
Ok the idea that Lukashenko offered sanctuary seems absurd. Have you seen the interview where Lukashenko says he's hoping to be a colonel in Putin's army? It's exactly like Gogol's "Government Inspector". Lukashenko is a clown. He's a thug, but a clown nevertheless. He's only does anything if it's sanctioned by Putin.
They have no chance. Ukraine is waiting for them.
«Is Belarus under Russian control?» good morning my western friend
It would make a great deal of sense for Belarus to annex to Russia as an autonomous oblast.
Not at all . Historically from the beginning of 19th century after the Napoleon wars it had became Russian territory until the first world war . Then after the first World war and revolution it became a republic as other republics . Then they followed all the agreements that were signed on their territory .
Lukashenko wanted to lean towards the West but then the West called him dictator, so what else could he do? Worse thing is that Poland, England, Germany became serves of Kyiv. Kyiv rules Europe.
It is like Ukraine, none have their sovereignty
Белорусы воистину братский народ. В Белоруссии не будет возрождения нацизма, как в Украине. Во время второй мировой войны немецкие нацисты убили 25% населения. Вдумайтесь - убит каждый четвёртый. Вам, тупым англосаксам, этого не понять. После распада СССР Беларусь сохранила свою промышленность, в отличии от Украины, где промышленность была разворована и уничтожена. Отношения России и Беларуси - это пример как НЕЗАВИСИМЫЕ страны могут дружить с взаимной выгодой. А не воевать во имя националистических идей, или во имя главенства в мире или эфемерной независимости или ещё чего то подобного. Кто мешал Украине точно так же жить дружно с Россией? Явно не Россия. И кто бы говорил о зависимости, так только не вы. Британская империя с её колониями по всему миру сотни лет обворовывала, грабила, убивала десятки стран. Сегодня США диктует свои правила Европе. При этом Европейские страны свято уверены, что они действуют в своих интересах. Та же Украина будет воевать до последнего украинского солдата, и не увидит мир, пока США не решат, что их цели достигнуты. Почитайте доклад Сороса в 1993 году. Так как раз распланировано создание буферного государства между Европой и Россией (Украина), а затем нанесение ущерба России за счет людских ресурсов буфера, техники и технологий запада. Что мы и наблюдаем.