@11:18 the Poisson Distribution is generally applied to systems that have a lot of possible outcomes, with each outcome having a small probability of occurring.
Captain Jack is the best . I’ve listened to him many times over the years and never get tired of him . He is a tremendous source for anybody interested in sports gambling . Great interview Colin !!
I have a hard time believing people like him unfortunately. There's just such a small chance you're ever gonna come out on top. Unless you're phil ivey who makes a deal with a casino before hand on things he knows gives him a huge edge and youre gonna play for millions. All the tips this guy gives are pretty basic...injury report etc. And anyone with half a brain does that anyway. Even the stuff hes talking about with fast break points etc...betting agencies looking at higher scoring teams like the golden state warriors and set their over/under accordingly...
the sports betting whale in vegas has won a amazing amount his agency has emailed and picks he uses a round robin progression lower and higher he has a unlimited bank he once won 660 k on 2 parlay in college football it was verified in a article@@skillsmachine9164
Brings back memories. In the 90's, I'd make a ton betting Wrigley overs and unders based on the wind. Today, the linemakers do a great job taking the wind into account.
terrific interview. i remember those home run props. i used to middle them and make such good money even though the limits were so low. one book would have over 1.5 hrs -110 and another would have under 2 hrs +120. another book would go u2.5 -110. every game every night. another was the 1st half nba totals. routinely getting 2 and 3 point middles on totals and sometimes with positive juice. i would middle them with pinnacle lines and started to realize all of my money was leaving pinnacle and going to the other books. then i just hammered the pinnacle lean on the nba total halves and made great money that way for a while. again great interview
New subscriber. This was a fantastic interview! Listened to the whole thing while cleaning my basement. The man is such an outside the box thinker and willing to take the risks for success, much like yourself. Great minds.
Fantastic interview..... I'm not a BlackJack player, I just ended up here to watch Captain Jack. I'm a sports bettor... But I found it fascinating listening to him tell of his casino games background, and being an advantage player like you folks here. This guy does it all.
I’m really trying to get good at this. I read the book, I study player props, I look at matchups, injuries, averages, percentages, etc. I still struggle with winning. It’s only been a few months though maybe I’m expecting too much too soon.
Wong teasers are an absolute money maker. The problem is that most books have moved the vig on teasers. In the old days a 2 game 6 point teaser was -110. Now you might get -130. Much harder to make money in the long run.
I been sports betting since 2009, I can tell you that landscape has changed for the worse. Now sportsbooks change odds overnight if you win too much you get banned. Payouts are not as good as they used to be
@@davet766half true. Finding mistakes tips the balance to one side and bookies may not be able to balance the books the other way. It all revolves around that. I am personally up $700,000NZ over the past 8 years and have over 200 soft banned sports betting accounts. I pay people 10% of net winnings. I’ve given away 10s of thousands of dollars in commission.
I don't understand why a winning sports bettor who is just betting on the point spread of the games, ever has his betting limited to the point that he can't make any "real" money anymore, because the sports book shouldn't care who wins because all they are after for those types of bets (generally speaking) is to get the most even amount of dollars wagered on either side of the game. They are there to collect the vigorish. That's why the point spread moves. So, as long as a player isn't placing last-minute massive size bets that the sportsbook can't make adjustments for, why punish the sports bettor? Furthermore, limiting a bet size for no other reason than because I'm winning should be illegal. If a sportsbook is offering bettors to place bets and advertising you can make money betting with them, etc, and the minute they discover a winning bettor they don't allow that opportunity anymore to a specific bettor just because he IS winning, is total and complete BS!
The thing is most of these sites don't know how to "make a book" literally they're also bettors so to them it's easier to take bets from dummies who they know will lose in the long-term
i doubt this happens unless your the whale in vegas he moves and spreads his bets around and you can do this online too whale said he is up 30million and uses round robins most higher and lower if losing
(Replying to @rogerrosen2323 - for some reason it wouldn't let me reply to you directly) - Regarding you doubt this happens unless you're "the whale in Vegas" - I don't believe that is true, here's why: First, I've heard many many instances of sports books reducing betting limits of winning bettors to ridiculously low levels, where you won't be able to make anything close to actual money that you could live off of, about down to $1 or $5 bets, max. Therefore, I don't believe that only happens to the large bettor, otherwise the limits wouldn't be so low. I'm currently trying to determine the best place to move so I can place sports bets online legally with the most "outs", because I would be able to make over 100% on my money every year. Yes, this can be done and fairly easily, that's why I'm trying to find this place so if anyone has any insight, I'd appreciate it. Thanks!
Running a site isn’t as easy as it sounds lol. Couple bad days can cripple you if your not rolled super heavy . The reason most people bet local books is because they bet on credit. So u may pay a guy out 3/4 Gs .. he loses 2 weeks in a row. And now he won’t pay.. lol it ain’t that simple. Then also locals take bigger limits and have a tougher time leveling out there bets .. I know a lot of local bookies end up sweating games themselves cuz they are lopsided by game time and couldn’t offset .
Bet a ton of money with a tiny but discernible edge, you need a huge (by regular people's standards) bankroll to survive the swings and make that 2 or 3 percent edge count. It's why blackjack teams pool their money to even out the variance.
Grownup in the 80s i never had an opinion on a game i would ask my gambling friend who he was betting every night and i would bet the complete opposite. He never won and i never lost it was great while it lasted.
I am professional roullete player. the most important thing is good money management, stop loss, take profit for the day and strategy with more that 96% chances
the nfl will not try to run up the score if they are up late in the game all neel downs and runs so you cant make a lucky td or over sometimes devils score w 1 sec left to make the minis one and a half you cant tell that
Interesting guest, good speaker. I feel like sports betting is basically handicapping (analysis) rather than a game like poker. Seems like the successful ladies in sports betting are the ones who really dive in deep. Take it from the man.
This was a fascinating video all the way through. There are so many similarities between sports betting and options. Look forward to checking out the resources mentioned.
you cant really predict sports since aS Sunday the colts sat on the ball and didnt make the over how can you tell that you need heavy on winners and small losers i use parlays bet a little for good odds some bets both sides with 2 keys
Capt. Jack! a legend! In the parking lot with a laptop back in the day.😂 great content, ty. But card counting is irrelevant because of continious shufflers. 😢
I think hockey is a very good sport to Prop bet Especially if you're in tune which is acquired by playing Fantasy Hockey And believe meYou get great information just by Making waivers weekly for your teams You catch trends you catch Late Peeking players And you get tremendous value picks if you're looking at it closely
100% on “watching market”. Stock trading taught me a ton about profitable sports betting. Correlated player prop parleys have lead to a huge year for me. Unfortunately a lot of books have caught on and nerfed pay outs.
@@rubenvasquez2857 lock in picks early and shop lines between your sports books (compare to a sharp book for reference) I locked in Dak/lamb and Geoff/Brown for a parlay on PrizePicks Monday 10 yards fewer than where they went off last night with. It’s a volume game just like EV advantage plays. Play the same unit size on every play, and don’t be afraid to take unders. Especially when these lower tier books have inflated lines knowing their clients all hammer overs. Also you will be limited. Underdog no longer allowed me to bet, and prize picks limited my unit size. I have to use friend and families accounts for these type of bets now to get in full size plays.
This. I did this with mlb, leadoff hitter run, 3 hitter rbi etc you can only break even now they juice the correlation too much now the only left i bet to make my living is alternate dog mlb run line -1.5 that pays +200 to +300 and grind out units over the month bc of high variance its a monthly thing
@@filthyrat2181 In the video, he mentioned a few things that sounded like the odds were pegged, but I was under the impression most bets were against other gamblers.
Hi Colin, the only casino in my country, they didnt show the used decks but they put the used cards back into the shuffling shoe, I have no idea that how to trace the remaining decks. Can u come out with a video that talk about what to do in this case? Is card counting wont work anymore in this case?
A lot of times your first impression is the right pic and then how many times have you changed it from the beginning of the week and the weekend comes around You Go the Opposite way And loose Or lay off it and it wins
You absolutely CAN quantify your edge precisely, for such a smart sharp bettor I’m surprised he said you can’t. Your edge would be your success rate minus the average implied probability of all the bets in a given set. That’s a visual representation of your edge.
I disagree. Just because you've won a certain percentage of previous bets doesn't make it a certainty that you will continue at that rate. Many reasons for that, but mostly related to the unpredictability of what you're betting on as well as sample size issues. Compare this with a 52 card deck of cards where the odds are finite. That's the point I was making. Overbetting your bankroll relative to your edge can turn a winning bettor into a broke bettor. It's an important point to caution against.
Your edge has nothing to do with success rate minus the average implied probability of your bets. Your edge is based on the price you got for your bet vs what the closing line price was. If I bet a team at -120 in the morning and the closing line was -140 before game time in the evening, that's a positive expected value bet. Now when calculating your edge, you have to factor in the vig/juice which for that bet would make the no vig/fair odds of around -127 based on the standard juice a sportsbook would charge. Your edge is the difference between -120 and -127 which makes your edge about 2.5% on that bet.
@@ThePatriots010304 yes I understand, and I agree. Appears my definition of “edge” wasn’t quite correct but I don’t think we are in disagreement about the math.
@@CaptainJackAndrews I understand, I was using the term “edge” to mean success rate over the implied probabilities, but agreed with everything else in the video. Thanks for sharing
This is a great interview, lots of very interesting info. Good work man. At what "limit" would a recreational book like draft kings or fan duel start to back you off, what's their threshold for loss to a bettor ?
is there an edge in roulette betting on a color and there are 2 line that pay 2 to 1 . one has 8 red one has 8 black so the corresponding with the color. you pick up 2 more chances to win
He said a lot of things that’s true about sports betting, but as a sports bettor myself. He uses weird words that we don’t use. He just sounds like a card counter not a sports bettor.
Just adjusted the spread +7.5 Nuggets in the 2nd QTR when they lead 30-28 . Game finished +6.5 Nuggets . I win the spread , I did it LIVE ! While they were in the lead !
Hey Colin, great interview! Your videos helped me start my AP career. I was wondering if you could do a video on your thoughts on employing the Ace Side Count together with your Hi/Lo count for double-deck games. What edge would the Ace Side Count give you when using it or not using it. To my understanding, the Ace Side Count is only used for betting units, but all deviations are still based on the Hi/Lo true count if I'm not mistaken. Just a thought in case you need video ideas. Thanks again for the consistent quality of your videos Colin.
@@Corey-pd3mi I'm not talking about every person who walks into a casino. Im talking about people who make a living playing a game. The guy who beat football, is doing hard time for "insider trading". It's a toilet bowl of money. Games are oftentimes fixed. Im a lifelong poker player, I know the difference between being a winner and a loser.
Yeah its exciting Vermont my state just allowed legalized sports betting !.. i just started EV playing sports.. Arbitrage betting is how i been winning my money. up around $500 for the year using them little profit boosts.
Vegas is not still Vegas I moved back here 3yrs ago first came here in 1978 when Vegas was Vegas those days are long gone the corporations destroyed everything out here nothing close to the way it use to be now you have legalized sport wagering in many states most of the joints out here I avoid I have just a couple of spots I frequent 1 in particular because it's the best and the owner is old school he knows how to treat the customers and the employees that's the South Point best joint out here !!!
I partied with REGGIE MCKENZIE the night after the bills lost their final game the first shortened strike season and went with him and a couple of waitress from work to the playboy club in Buffalo to the private team party🍻🚬
Only disagreement I have is that Atlantic City is awesome 😅 maybe knit the neighborhood but the casinos are awesome for not having to go all the way to Vegas
I know u don’t like online blackjack but I’ve been playing online Coral casino blackjack counting cards the tables are 3 to 2 payouts and anything from £5 to 10,000 min max bets I’ve one a few hands don’t have much money so I’ve been only winning little bits but starting £30 then at least doubling my money every time
![เปิดคำทำนาย นอสตราดามุส - บาบา วานก้า ปี 2025 คนทั่วโลกต้องเจออะไรบ้าง? | แฉ 11 ธ.ค. 67 [2/3] |GMM25](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/xmTIKWJUMPM/mqdefault.jpg)
@11:18 the Poisson Distribution is generally applied to systems that have a lot of possible outcomes, with each outcome having a small probability of occurring.
He adds that it needs to be 1 Unit angles- like Free Throws so you can quantify
Captain Jack is the best . I’ve listened to him many times over the years and never get tired of him . He is a tremendous source for anybody interested in sports gambling . Great interview Colin !!
I have a hard time believing people like him unfortunately. There's just such a small chance you're ever gonna come out on top. Unless you're phil ivey who makes a deal with a casino before hand on things he knows gives him a huge edge and youre gonna play for millions. All the tips this guy gives are pretty basic...injury report etc. And anyone with half a brain does that anyway.
Even the stuff hes talking about with fast break points etc...betting agencies looking at higher scoring teams like the golden state warriors and set their over/under accordingly...
the sports betting whale in vegas has won a amazing amount his agency has emailed and picks he uses a round robin progression lower and higher he has a unlimited bank he once won 660 k on 2 parlay in college football it was verified in a article@@skillsmachine9164
@@skillsmachine9164have you ever been limited on a gambling site that’s the first sign your winning
Does he have a twitter ?
@@dqthedonmusic3227 yes he is captain Jack Andrews. @capjack2000
Building a 6 figure bankroll from bonuses is a prime example of right place right time. So much more difficult now. In the uk at least
Even in the US. The app/casino limit everything especially when they know you have a bit of edge
because the uk absolutely murdered the bookies on the sign ups. things like team profit and profit accumulator didnt help
What do you mean @@TheRealMcJack
Brings back memories. In the 90's, I'd make a ton betting Wrigley overs and unders based on the wind. Today, the linemakers do a great job taking the wind into account.
No you didnt
@@vincevice1398 ???
Fans on bet the over...I hit that a ton this year...also hit Suzuki to get two hits a lot...
how fast did the wind have to be?
@@BugsySiegel-l3k 9-10 mph made a huge difference.
Fan duel for players props is the sharpest book on the market
Not available in Europe?
Pinnacle is sharper
Pinnacle isn’t sharper for player props
Pinnacle is the sharpest Sportsbook though
terrific interview. i remember those home run props. i used to middle them and make such good money even though the limits were so low. one book would have over 1.5 hrs -110 and another would have under 2 hrs +120. another book would go u2.5 -110. every game every night. another was the 1st half nba totals. routinely getting 2 and 3 point middles on totals and sometimes with positive juice. i would middle them with pinnacle lines and started to realize all of my money was leaving pinnacle and going to the other books. then i just hammered the pinnacle lean on the nba total halves and made great money that way for a while. again great interview
what was your threshold for wind speed?
New subscriber. This was a fantastic interview! Listened to the whole thing while cleaning my basement. The man is such an outside the box thinker and willing to take the risks for success, much like yourself. Great minds.
Fantastic interview..... I'm not a BlackJack player, I just ended up here to watch Captain Jack. I'm a sports bettor... But I found it fascinating listening to him tell of his casino games background, and being an advantage player like you folks here. This guy does it all.
6:00 - I’m from Chicago and feel compelled to clarify that the term “Windy City” isn’t referring to actual wind blowing. Look it up.
Its referring to long winded lobbyists
For sports wise it always has been though haha
The biggest odds I ever won on was 10 game 800/1 parlay card I hit it repeatedly Delaware made sure I received i9 tax form
Thanks Colin and Capt Jack for a great interview. Refreshing to hear these topics explained in somewhat laymen terms. Much appreciated. 👍
delaware allows in person bets at kiosks all over places
sports onlines warn you for compulsive gambling here in new york
😕Listening to gambling degenerate.
I’m really trying to get good at this. I read the book, I study player props, I look at matchups, injuries, averages, percentages, etc. I still struggle with winning. It’s only been a few months though maybe I’m expecting too much too soon.
Its not easy brother but keep at it!
Love the diversity! Thanks you Colin & Captain Jack!
Wong teasers are an absolute money maker. The problem is that most books have moved the vig on teasers. In the old days a 2 game 6 point teaser was -110. Now you might get -130. Much harder to make money in the long run.
Yes. The Vegas Club and Horseshoe in downtown Vegas had great parlay and teaser odds in the 90's.
Best piece of content you’ve released 😊😊
I been sports betting since 2009, I can tell you that landscape has changed for the worse. Now sportsbooks change odds overnight if you win too much you get banned. Payouts are not as good as they used to be
Odds change live through the game on sportsbooks.
Why would you get banned if you win too much? Sportsbooks make money on the vig, not on the bets.
I hate how they lock live bets.
not on parlays there isnt a vig just odds@@davet766
@@davet766half true. Finding mistakes tips the balance to one side and bookies may not be able to balance the books the other way. It all revolves around that. I am personally up $700,000NZ over the past 8 years and have over 200 soft banned sports betting accounts. I pay people 10% of net winnings. I’ve given away 10s of thousands of dollars in commission.
This dude is the real deal.he's been through the grind.If you know , you know...
the sports make you verify your location via a download software if not using a phone app
I don't understand why a winning sports bettor who is just betting on the point spread of the games, ever has his betting limited to the point that he can't make any "real" money anymore, because the sports book shouldn't care who wins because all they are after for those types of bets (generally speaking) is to get the most even amount of dollars wagered on either side of the game. They are there to collect the vigorish. That's why the point spread moves. So, as long as a player isn't placing last-minute massive size bets that the sportsbook can't make adjustments for, why punish the sports bettor? Furthermore, limiting a bet size for no other reason than because I'm winning should be illegal. If a sportsbook is offering bettors to place bets and advertising you can make money betting with them, etc, and the minute they discover a winning bettor they don't allow that opportunity anymore to a specific bettor just because he IS winning, is total and complete BS!
The thing is most of these sites don't know how to "make a book" literally they're also bettors so to them it's easier to take bets from dummies who they know will lose in the long-term
Yeah that’s the point , they can do what they want and you can’t do nothing about it
i doubt this happens unless your the whale in vegas he moves and spreads his bets around and you can do this online too whale said he is up 30million and uses round robins most higher and lower if losing
(Replying to @rogerrosen2323 - for some reason it wouldn't let me reply to you directly) - Regarding you doubt this happens unless you're "the whale in Vegas" - I don't believe that is true, here's why: First, I've heard many many instances of sports books reducing betting limits of winning bettors to ridiculously low levels, where you won't be able to make anything close to actual money that you could live off of, about down to $1 or $5 bets, max. Therefore, I don't believe that only happens to the large bettor, otherwise the limits wouldn't be so low. I'm currently trying to determine the best place to move so I can place sports bets online legally with the most "outs", because I would be able to make over 100% on my money every year. Yes, this can be done and fairly easily, that's why I'm trying to find this place so if anyone has any insight, I'd appreciate it. Thanks!
I agree with you broda
This is definitely a meeting of the minds!
Wow brings back memories.. I was at Delaware park FAITHFULLY before FanDuel and draftkings. I’ve saved a whole lot of gas since then lol
Same here, we are probably in the same neck of the woods
That was a great interview, thanks Colin.
More profitable to run a site because there isn't a loss to be had. Betting on suckers to try your system or picks is way easier.
Running a site isn’t as easy as it sounds lol. Couple bad days can cripple you if your not rolled super heavy . The reason most people bet local books is because they bet on credit. So u may pay a guy out 3/4 Gs .. he loses 2 weeks in a row. And now he won’t pay.. lol it ain’t that simple. Then also locals take bigger limits and have a tougher time leveling out there bets .. I know a lot of local bookies end up sweating games themselves cuz they are lopsided by game time and couldn’t offset .
@@kyle7950exactly. Lot of people betting with ghost money and running off on u when they lose
@kyle7950 for real. You're only as good as your paying players. Lol. Man, that part sux the worst out of all of it....
yea but reveiws never lie
No idea how these guys beat the system. Been trying for years.
Bet a ton of money with a tiny but discernible edge, you need a huge (by regular people's standards) bankroll to survive the swings and make that 2 or 3 percent edge count. It's why blackjack teams pool their money to even out the variance.
Oh that makes sense
Same here. So frustrating.
Same here. So frustrating.
Same here. So frustrating.
Grownup in the 80s i never had an opinion on a game i would ask my gambling friend who he was betting every night and i would bet the complete opposite. He never won and i never lost it was great while it lasted.
I am professional roullete player. the most important thing is good money management, stop loss, take profit for the day and strategy with more that 96% chances
Funny how haters of gambling love to watch vids like this from pros.
What a fantastic interview.
That was great. Last time you had captain jack on it was more difficult to discern what he was trying to convey. Excellent stuff by both of you.
This guy knows what he talking about.
I’m a new sports betting AP have won over 1500 with almost no risk of ruin ( most of it came from promotions)
teach me
What a great interview
Loved this interview! I asked a question on the forum and it was answered to perfection. Thanks to both of you for such an awesome interview!
very easy now with states sports books online dont need costa rica with bitcoin and fees and dollar minimums
the nfl will not try to run up the score if they are up late in the game all neel downs and runs so you cant make a lucky td or over sometimes devils score w 1 sec left to make the minis one and a half you cant tell that
you need bitcoin for thre offshores and they pay it seems
Hard Rock sports book is becoming legal in Florida here December 8. Let’s get it.
Interesting guest, good speaker. I feel like sports betting is basically handicapping (analysis) rather than a game like poker. Seems like the successful ladies in sports betting are the ones who really dive in deep. Take it from the man.
Id love to hear if he's had any glitches on some of these sites, like a bad line being posted "Cowboys ML +2000" instead of -300 🤣
I’ve won 10k on one of those
8 accounts max pounce a -1000 line at +350
They even emailed me later and said it was a bad line but they paid me anyways
It literally just happened a hour ago on the lakers game. Every over under prop was like 1.5 / 2.5 etc etc
Was suppose to be 25000 if I got em all right and I did.
This was a fascinating video all the way through. There are so many similarities between sports betting and options. Look forward to checking out the resources mentioned.
you cant really predict sports since aS Sunday the colts sat on the ball and didnt make the over how can you tell that you need heavy on winners and small losers i use parlays bet a little for good odds some bets both sides with 2 keys
@rogerrosen2323 lol. You don't have a clue, do you
Capt. Jack! a legend! In the parking lot with a laptop back in the day.😂
great content, ty.
But card counting is irrelevant because of continious shufflers. 😢
Plenty of places without those.
Not all Casinos use continuous shufflers
I think hockey is a very good sport to Prop bet Especially if you're in tune which is acquired by playing Fantasy Hockey And believe meYou get great information just by Making waivers weekly for your teams You catch trends you catch Late Peeking players And you get tremendous value picks if you're looking at it closely
What a great interview.
100% on “watching market”. Stock trading taught me a ton about profitable sports betting. Correlated player prop parleys have lead to a huge year for me. Unfortunately a lot of books have caught on and nerfed pay outs.
Any tips ?
@@rubenvasquez2857 lock in picks early and shop lines between your sports books (compare to a sharp book for reference) I locked in Dak/lamb and Geoff/Brown for a parlay on PrizePicks Monday 10 yards fewer than where they went off last night with. It’s a volume game just like EV advantage plays. Play the same unit size on every play, and don’t be afraid to take unders. Especially when these lower tier books have inflated lines knowing their clients all hammer overs.
Also you will be limited. Underdog no longer allowed me to bet, and prize picks limited my unit size. I have to use friend and families accounts for these type of bets now to get in full size plays.
This. I did this with mlb, leadoff hitter run, 3 hitter rbi etc you can only break even now they juice the correlation too much now the only left i bet to make my living is alternate dog mlb run line -1.5 that pays +200 to +300 and grind out units over the month bc of high variance its a monthly thing
It doesn’t take long to see Vegas is a soul sucker. The idea of it is much better than the reality 😅
An umpire with a wide strike zone is another factor.
Why would the casino care if you have an advantage at sports betting? How is that any different from being good at poker?
Because you are taking money from the casino rather than other gamblers
@@filthyrat2181 In the video, he mentioned a few things that sounded like the odds were pegged, but I was under the impression most bets were against other gamblers.
@@filthyrat2181Most of what I see online is that they make money through a commission, not an edge in backing the bets.
Great interview, both of you guys. I'd like to also see Cap Jack interview Colin. :-)
Hi Colin, the only casino in my country, they didnt show the used decks but they put the used cards back into the shuffling shoe, I have no idea that how to trace the remaining decks. Can u come out with a video that talk about what to do in this case? Is card counting wont work anymore in this case?
th-cam.com/video/xNFdJop1T6M/w-d-xo.htmlsi=2fgG47vQaYHe4r7W
I'm subscribed to his channel. He doesn't put out enough videos! His content is gold though, anyone betting on sports should subscribe.
great interview thank you!
A lot of times your first impression is the right pic and then how many times have you changed it from the beginning of the week and the weekend comes around You Go the Opposite way And loose Or lay off it and it wins
keep up the mix in content would love to hear the perspectives of other AP's
Great video. Looking forward to trying out Unabated.
yes my book in costa rica closed and ran the usa ran a sting a long time ago now we have states legal
I love to listen to sharp sports bettors
Went to The track and my friend's girlfriend Asked when do you bet before or after the race
An other good long shot in sports is the futures bet because it is still up even near the playoffs so the choices are very much easier.
futures is the best because you can hedge
Wow awesome stuff remember the offshore wondering if …. that flimsy paper check was gonna cash and if I need to pay tax
You absolutely CAN quantify your edge precisely, for such a smart sharp bettor I’m surprised he said you can’t. Your edge would be your success rate minus the average implied probability of all the bets in a given set. That’s a visual representation of your edge.
I disagree. Just because you've won a certain percentage of previous bets doesn't make it a certainty that you will continue at that rate. Many reasons for that, but mostly related to the unpredictability of what you're betting on as well as sample size issues. Compare this with a 52 card deck of cards where the odds are finite. That's the point I was making. Overbetting your bankroll relative to your edge can turn a winning bettor into a broke bettor. It's an important point to caution against.
I am surprised that someone would struggle to understand this haha @@CaptainJackAndrews
Your edge has nothing to do with success rate minus the average implied probability of your bets. Your edge is based on the price you got for your bet vs what the closing line price was. If I bet a team at -120 in the morning and the closing line was -140 before game time in the evening, that's a positive expected value bet. Now when calculating your edge, you have to factor in the vig/juice which for that bet would make the no vig/fair odds of around -127 based on the standard juice a sportsbook would charge. Your edge is the difference between -120 and -127 which makes your edge about 2.5% on that bet.
@@ThePatriots010304 yes I understand, and I agree. Appears my definition of “edge” wasn’t quite correct but I don’t think we are in disagreement about the math.
@@CaptainJackAndrews I understand, I
was using the term “edge” to mean success rate over the implied probabilities, but agreed with everything else in the video. Thanks for sharing
11:44 that’s the simplest thing of all time just look at there averages and if the prop lines under bet under
Captain JackGood Luck SirMay all your wagers be winning wagers
Any good strategies for sports betting
Check out the Unabated YT channel and website, that's outside of our expertise over here,
I also in the early 90s worked at the west palm beach kennel club and "every day " ! waited on Pete Rose and he fired away huge amounts of coin
I miss early 2000’s
Delaware casino paid 10/1 odds on a 6 Game 6 point teaser
Those days are gone forever
WOWWWWWWWWW god damn
Teaser odds have gotten smashed lately. I hate it.
Where can I read the article about only having 1 hour to sports bet ?
This is amazing insight
This is a great interview, lots of very interesting info. Good work man. At what "limit" would a recreational book like draft kings or fan duel start to back you off, what's their threshold for loss to a bettor ?
is there an edge in roulette betting on a color and there are 2 line that pay 2 to 1 . one has 8 red one has 8 black so the corresponding with the color. you pick up 2 more chances to win
Probably and statistics are key to comprehend and use to find value plays
Captain Jack ...aka of all trades in betting
Hey Colin does your course also work for online casions?
IT DOES NOT. And don't throw your money away playing online!
@@troyw1000 okay, are you of the opinion that you can't make money online with blackjack, why?
@@yvesmattle you are typically at more of a disadvantage versus going to a live casino with good rules. Just do your research first.
wisdom of the crowd, working really well now
He said a lot of things that’s true about sports betting, but as a sports bettor myself. He uses weird words that we don’t use. He just sounds like a card counter not a sports bettor.
Level up me 👍❤️great soul greatest man thank you so much for sharing this wisdom !👏
Here in Las Vegas I can adjust the line to what ever I want the spread to be from my phone! I do two or three teamers with adjusted lines.
Great approach
Just adjusted the spread +7.5 Nuggets in the 2nd QTR when they lead 30-28 . Game finished +6.5 Nuggets . I win the spread , I did it LIVE ! While they were in the lead !
"try and fail" underrated statement
Could someone point me to what some of the sharper sports books are? I heard Circa? And Prime? I think? Any others? Thank you.
Pinnacle sports
Would be very interested in what the opinion is of apps like optimal are.
Right now the Cowboys are favorites over the Giants By 17 points, how can any professional team not be embarrassed by that????
Hey Colin, great interview! Your videos helped me start my AP career. I was wondering if you could do a video on your thoughts on employing the Ace Side Count together with your Hi/Lo count for double-deck games. What edge would the Ace Side Count give you when using it or not using it. To my understanding, the Ace Side Count is only used for betting units, but all deviations are still based on the Hi/Lo true count if I'm not mistaken. Just a thought in case you need video ideas. Thanks again for the consistent quality of your videos Colin.
Fantastic informative video.
Sportsbetting is good.
It's ok but I prefer horse racing especially Hong Kong racing
Im here for Blackjack. Sports betting is not a sustainable way to make money, for 99.8% of the gambling population. Lets talk blackjack
Blackjack is not a sustainable way to make money, for 99.8% of the gambling population 🤦♂️
@@Corey-pd3mi I'm not talking about every person who walks into a casino. Im talking about people who make a living playing a game. The guy who beat football, is doing hard time for "insider trading". It's a toilet bowl of money. Games are oftentimes fixed. Im a lifelong poker player, I know the difference between being a winner and a loser.
Ok so is there a reason to not button the first button on the shirt 🤔
If you go to the casino to make your sport bet at the kiosk, how can the casino limit how much can bet.
They can't reach that level first then think about getting banned 😊
No problem getting down $3-5k in nearly any sport. NFL 10x that isn't a problem.
Is he picking the cowboys in covering the spread ?
Yeah its exciting Vermont my state just allowed legalized sports betting !.. i just started EV playing sports.. Arbitrage betting is how i been winning my money. up around $500 for the year using them little profit boosts.
Wong teaser was my nickname in high school
Vegas is not still Vegas I moved back here 3yrs ago first came here in 1978 when Vegas was Vegas those days are long gone the corporations destroyed everything out here nothing close to the way it use to be now you have legalized sport wagering in many states most of the joints out here I avoid I have just a couple of spots I frequent 1 in particular because it's the best and the owner is old school he knows how to treat the customers and the employees that's the South Point best joint out here !!!
He spoke to me deeply thank you for this.
great interview
I partied with REGGIE MCKENZIE the night after the bills lost their final game the first shortened strike season and went with him and a couple of waitress from work to the playboy club in Buffalo to the private team party🍻🚬
1st 🎉
What’s an AP!?
3:10 well back in the day jacks record shows he’s got ZERO edge anymore books and casinos FAR too sharp
How can I put a bet down for you?
how do you not like Vegas AS AND ADULT ?
Only disagreement I have is that Atlantic City is awesome 😅 maybe knit the neighborhood but the casinos are awesome for not having to go all the way to Vegas
What sucks is the books are right on the 🎯 with the numbers….thats why the house NEVER loses
"All is number." - Pythagoras
I know u don’t like online blackjack but I’ve been playing online Coral casino blackjack counting cards the tables are 3 to 2 payouts and anything from £5 to 10,000 min max bets I’ve one a few hands don’t have much money so I’ve been only winning little bits but starting £30 then at least doubling my money every time
Very interesting
Spends most of his time now on his site. Because that is where the money is. A paid site where he makes his actual money.
Oh thats why you won those bets lol.. a one off exception from a sportsbook that got shutdown.