People overestimate automation and its adoption. People said we would have self driving Ubers by 2020 all across the United States. How well is that going?
I think this is the wrong question, albeit an obvious one. A better question is, HOW will AI be able to help pilots deal with more "stressful" situations? In this case, I'm referring to situations where something unexpected happens and "time is of the essence". We're at an inflection point where a computing system can be monitoring what's going on and handle a sudden surge of inputs, analyze them, and quickly derive an optimal solution that may well be better than what a human can do. In emergency situations, humans get "tunnel vision" that is helpful when they've been trained on a given scenario, and can be harmful when they haven't. Another thing to consider is that any kind of computer system isn't going to be worth squat unless / until there are far more detailed and accurate sensors added to the aircraft. The technology is there, but it's expensive and takes a long time to add stuff. And it's not like you can just add some sensors this month, then more next month, and replace some others the month after that. I don't know much about this end of things, other than people who do things in the airline industry move very, VERY slowly. Every additional ounce of weight is scrutinized. Every permanent change in the CG of the craft is scrutinized. Airlines could put a supercomputer in the cockpit today, but it wouldn't be very busy given the relatively small amount of data that's being captured today. Not because it's hard or complicated, but because the current equipment can't deal with it. So why bother? it's a VERY COMPLICATED PROBLEM that has LOTS of "moving parts" so to speak. They all have to be done together, in sync, and thoroughly tested. And people need to be mindful of the fact that there's only so much you can do to test a 20 ton aircraft in realistic situations. I think a far better application of AI is in ATC. We're currently understaffed, the training time to get new people online is relatively long, and the downside risks are horrible to consider. Mile for mile, there are far fewer deaths caused by air TRAVEL than anything else. But the risks are not so much in flight, but in congested areas, like around airports, and that's ATC's job. Unfortunately, Congress is failing when it comes to managing ATC as a resource. They need help, and FAST. I think current pilots are doing an incredible job keeping people safe. But Congress seems more committed to putting lives at risk for political purposes than to dealing with the long-term needs of our air traffic control system.
Interesting viewpoint. The system can make decisions based on their input. There have been many instances where the pilot has prevented an accident by intervening when the computer was wrong or had the wrong input. I am very excited about AI implementation in current air traffic management systems. There are some big players such as SAAB Aerospace and others at the forefront of this research and implementation. ATC has been an issue for a long time. One reason I have always advocated for those interested to join the ranks of Air Traffic Controller. Thanks again for the comments. P.S. If you know anyone interested George Harper did a great job giving a brief overview of what it is like to be an Air Traffic Controller. Example Of What It Is Like To Be An Air Traffic Controller th-cam.com/video/Oh5dBkeUmhI/w-d-xo.html
I don't think any of us will pretend to believe pilots will exist in 200+ years. Surely there will be a time when manufacturers make an airliner without a flight deck. The question we all want to know is will we live to see that transition? I don't think so. I think the kids who look to the skies today and dream of being a pilot will get the chance. Their grandkids, however? That's a little less likely.
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People overestimate automation and its adoption. People said we would have self driving Ubers by 2020 all across the United States. How well is that going?
Yes they do overestimate especially in Aviation. But I think more automation and AI will have incremental benefits toward aviation safety.
I think this is the wrong question, albeit an obvious one. A better question is, HOW will AI be able to help pilots deal with more "stressful" situations? In this case, I'm referring to situations where something unexpected happens and "time is of the essence". We're at an inflection point where a computing system can be monitoring what's going on and handle a sudden surge of inputs, analyze them, and quickly derive an optimal solution that may well be better than what a human can do. In emergency situations, humans get "tunnel vision" that is helpful when they've been trained on a given scenario, and can be harmful when they haven't.
Another thing to consider is that any kind of computer system isn't going to be worth squat unless / until there are far more detailed and accurate sensors added to the aircraft. The technology is there, but it's expensive and takes a long time to add stuff. And it's not like you can just add some sensors this month, then more next month, and replace some others the month after that. I don't know much about this end of things, other than people who do things in the airline industry move very, VERY slowly. Every additional ounce of weight is scrutinized. Every permanent change in the CG of the craft is scrutinized. Airlines could put a supercomputer in the cockpit today, but it wouldn't be very busy given the relatively small amount of data that's being captured today. Not because it's hard or complicated, but because the current equipment can't deal with it. So why bother? it's a VERY COMPLICATED PROBLEM that has LOTS of "moving parts" so to speak. They all have to be done together, in sync, and thoroughly tested. And people need to be mindful of the fact that there's only so much you can do to test a 20 ton aircraft in realistic situations.
I think a far better application of AI is in ATC. We're currently understaffed, the training time to get new people online is relatively long, and the downside risks are horrible to consider. Mile for mile, there are far fewer deaths caused by air TRAVEL than anything else. But the risks are not so much in flight, but in congested areas, like around airports, and that's ATC's job. Unfortunately, Congress is failing when it comes to managing ATC as a resource. They need help, and FAST.
I think current pilots are doing an incredible job keeping people safe. But Congress seems more committed to putting lives at risk for political purposes than to dealing with the long-term needs of our air traffic control system.
Interesting viewpoint. The system can make decisions based on their input. There have been many instances where the pilot has prevented an accident by intervening when the computer was wrong or had the wrong input.
I am very excited about AI implementation in current air traffic management systems. There are some big players such as SAAB Aerospace and others at the forefront of this research and implementation.
ATC has been an issue for a long time. One reason I have always advocated for those interested to join the ranks of Air Traffic Controller.
Thanks again for the comments.
P.S. If you know anyone interested George Harper did a great job giving a brief overview of what it is like to be an Air Traffic Controller. Example Of What It Is Like To Be An Air Traffic Controller
th-cam.com/video/Oh5dBkeUmhI/w-d-xo.html
I don't think any of us will pretend to believe pilots will exist in 200+ years. Surely there will be a time when manufacturers make an airliner without a flight deck. The question we all want to know is will we live to see that transition? I don't think so. I think the kids who look to the skies today and dream of being a pilot will get the chance. Their grandkids, however? That's a little less likely.
[reads title, doesn't watch video]
Q, Will AI Replace Pilot Jobs??
A. Yes