UK Housing Crash 2024 - Are Prices Set to Fall Further?

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 11 พ.ย. 2024

ความคิดเห็น • 411

  • @economicshelp
    @economicshelp  11 หลายเดือนก่อน +7

    This is the video which looks at how past bubbles burst and whether it is the same situation or not. th-cam.com/video/M0v1PBSBWbA/w-d-xo.html

    • @bign1667
      @bign1667 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      it seems like Australia and the UK are playing the same strategy. New Zealand is also worth studying as well to see how in comparison your UK market is going to play out.

    • @DeepakDograx323045
      @DeepakDograx323045 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@bign1667 Australia's Economy too High over then World why you saying against Australia

  • @caob1876
    @caob1876 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +154

    If I had a penny for every time the housing market was supposed to crash, I’de have a house by now

    • @ivangutowski
      @ivangutowski 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    • @cogama7846
      @cogama7846 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

      So true - I held out hoping on this and all I got was screwed

    • @kazzsingh5656
      @kazzsingh5656 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      you'd have between £73 - 292

    • @vladimirp8470
      @vladimirp8470 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      😂😂real facts

    • @FirstLast-rh9jw
      @FirstLast-rh9jw 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      When has betting against London house prices paid off in the last 20-30 years? You have to live somewhere...

  • @ryanwilliams989
    @ryanwilliams989 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +157

    In the UK, individuals living in cars due to partial homelessness result from a complex interplay of factors. High housing costs relative to income, stagnant wages, and income inequality drive this issue. Job loss, weak social support, medical expenses, evictions, and lack of affordable housing also contribute, while systemic problems and inadequate policies further perpetuate the phenomenon.

    • @StellaMaris-lv2uq
      @StellaMaris-lv2uq 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.

    • @maryHenokNft
      @maryHenokNft 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      I've remained in touch with a financial analyst since the start of my business. Amid today's dynamic market, the key difficulty is pinpointing the right time to buy or sell when dealing with trending stocks - a seemingly simple task but challenging in reality. My portfolio has grown by more than $600k within just a year, and I've entrusted my advisor with the task of determining entry and exit points.

    • @maryHenokNft
      @maryHenokNft 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      I'm guided by *Camille Alicia Garcia* An experienced coach with extensive financial market knowledge. While you can consider other options, her strategy has yielded positive results for me. She offers valuable insights, including entry and exit points for the securities I concentrate on.

    • @BiancaSherly-qt6sb
      @BiancaSherly-qt6sb 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Thank you for the information. I conducted my own research and your advisor appears to be highly skilled and knowledgeable. I've sent her an email and arranged a phone call. Her expertise is impressive, and I'm eagerly anticipating our conversation.

    • @damarismusoke
      @damarismusoke 9 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      So now is not good to invest in real estate ?

  • @Riggsnic_co
    @Riggsnic_co 10 หลายเดือนก่อน +110

    The issue is that either the renter or the owner must in some way pay insurance and property taxes if they want a "permanent roof" with utilities like electricity, gas and water. Because of this, many people-at least in California, where I currently reside-are living in tents. No taxes, rent, mortgages, or insurance. The number of people who tell me they live in their car that I meet amazes me. Its crazy out here!

    • @usieey
      @usieey 10 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      It’s getting wild by the day. The prices of homes are quite ridiculous and Mortgage prices has been skyrocketing on a roll(currently over 7%). Sometimes i wonder if to just invest my spare cash into the stock market and wait for a housing crash or just go ahead to buy a home anyways.

    • @maga_zineng7810
      @maga_zineng7810 10 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      I get such worries too. I'm 50 and retiring early. Already worried of the future and where its headed, especially in terms of financies and how to get by. I'm also considering making my first investment in the stock market, but how can I do so given that the market has been in a mess for the majority of the year?

    • @Mohaimam316
      @Mohaimam316 10 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Impressive can you share more info?

    • @maga_zineng7810
      @maga_zineng7810 10 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Credits to 'Natalie Lynn Fisk' she has a web presence, so you can simply

    • @Mohaimam316
      @Mohaimam316 10 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

  • @TheFatController.
    @TheFatController. 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +15

    As a house owner, I wouldn't mind prices to fall another 10-20%. We need things to rebalance. Having a higher value house doesn't really help anyway, as you would only sell to buy another house.

    • @rude2870
      @rude2870 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Well that depends on what stage you’re at in life. If your kids have grown up and you no longer need as much space you can down size and bank a nice lump sum!

  • @AM_o2000
    @AM_o2000 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +39

    Optimists saying 'real wages are up, therefore house prices will soar'. Firstly, wages aren't up against the things that matter (food, bills, fuel, etc.). Secondly, just wait until 2024 when people ask for another pay rise and their employers say 'er, sorry, general inflation and the last round of pay rises have hit the business pretty hard, so we're about to start a round of redundancies'. Plus the effect of higher interest rates finally kicking in properly. Next year we'll see the proper falls.

    • @dalskiBo
      @dalskiBo 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

      Dead right, has not even begun yet - they are vastly overpriced & unaffordable, or rents which are even higher!

    • @randomcomputer7248
      @randomcomputer7248 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Wise words

    • @GG-hu9dn
      @GG-hu9dn 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Good ...the greedy "im alright jacks" deserve it!!

    • @JuxtaPositionings
      @JuxtaPositionings 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      If you look at the figures, inflation in real terms is not really decreasing as they suggest. It’s figure fudging at its finest. A wage price spiral is the last thing we need right now with high interest rates and high inflation. Cutting Ni contributions is going to add oil to the fire. Interest rates going up some more yet so get your fixed deals in now if you can. When all the existing fixed rate mortgages start to default in 2024/25 the fun will really start. Bad times ahead

    • @AM_o2000
      @AM_o2000 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@JuxtaPositionings Inflation on the things that matter (food, bills, fuel) has been way higher than the headline figures. And the current rate of inflation is still higher than the last peak that was worrying analysts, when it hit 4.8% back in 2013 or so and the BoE had to issue a statement saying they expected it to come down sooner rather than later.

  • @edc1569
    @edc1569 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +24

    Imagine the government spending 30bn inflating house prices.

    • @kjkj4725
      @kjkj4725 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

      Hmmm I wonder if politicians benefited from this 🤑

    • @acommenter
      @acommenter 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      The Conservative party, sponsored by Redrow

    • @theairstig9164
      @theairstig9164 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Immigration

    • @tomonetruth
      @tomonetruth 8 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@theairstig9164 Theodolite

  • @FennaVa
    @FennaVa 9 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Housing prices are unlikely to decrease until there's a substantial increase in housing supply. In the USA , there's a shortage of millions of housing units, and construction isn't keeping pace. The constant demand for housing, coupled with population growth, means that even a slight price drop attracts numerous buyers who quickly absorb the available supply.

    • @marcellasilva4015
      @marcellasilva4015 9 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @ValentineBenjamin-wh3gl Thanks for replying, You seem to know much, How did you go about it and can you recommend an advisor like yours?

  • @manishg214
    @manishg214 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +49

    We had 15 years of rises. Expect at least 3 years of falls !

    • @Solihul886
      @Solihul886 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Ali g: starting frommmmmm now

    • @andrewtaylor6737
      @andrewtaylor6737 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @healthiswealth6797Government are bankrupt, no one's coming to save you now!

    • @albedo0point39
      @albedo0point39 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Is the supply shortage over yet?

    • @andrewtaylor6737
      @andrewtaylor6737 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@albedo0point39 Will be plenty when the banks foreclose on the ever increasing debt, mortgage payers. Yes they can switch to interest only, but this just kicks the can down the road.
      Not forgetting, boomers completing their life cycle in the coming years & younger people leaving the Uk for better opportunities.

    • @SlackHoffman
      @SlackHoffman 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@albedo0point39not for the next EVER lol They purposely LAG behind the shortage in housing stock to keep the property market strong and inflated 🍀
      Houses in the UK never go down they just slow down ….

  • @realest-12
    @realest-12 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +15

    Everyone is starting to feel the pinch now and things are just getting started. Has to be a big drop or no one will buy or afford to move

  • @richardedwards9424
    @richardedwards9424 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +8

    My mortgage will go up £140 when I start my new deal next month. I overpayed £8000 last month to bring down the increase in interest cost, or I'd be paying about £200 extra per month

  • @gdok6088
    @gdok6088 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +18

    Great to see a balanced assessment backed up by a wide variety of data types and sources. Excellent video - thank you.

    • @christianad5358
      @christianad5358 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      yeah, but so many wrong conclusions from the data...

  • @jimbobarooney2861
    @jimbobarooney2861 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +12

    Greeting from Ireland, we are clearly in the denial stage here yet again. Unemployment has ticked up 0.5% since April, even though low, imo all the signs are a recession is imminent here, how could it not be, basically wages have not kept pace with the cost of living My prediction is prices fall back to 2019 levels, interest rates will come down, inflation will become deflation and banks will tighten credit. Supply and demand is a fickle argument, in times like this it assumes unlimited credit. Supply and Desire might be a better description

  • @ruth36405
    @ruth36405 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    I sold my house a year ago, my money's in the bank and I am renting. I've been watching house prices decline slowly. I am lucky to be a cash buyer but I do not know how long to wait before I buy my next house. I am not a property investor but obviously I would like to buy a house for a good price.

    • @alexroc172
      @alexroc172 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      very shrewd if prices drop fast this coming winter/spring as they may do

  • @Jas82f
    @Jas82f 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Lower end of the market the prices have not changed at all.. 65k - 125k in West Yorkshire no one reducing..

  • @acelectricalsecurity
    @acelectricalsecurity 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Prices in the UK are too high anyway. People can lose £10k or more when changing their car, and nobody bothers. A house like anything else is worth what someone will pay.

  • @Curbalnk
    @Curbalnk 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +40

    I’m 35 and I have about £250k liquid in savings which I plan to put towards becoming a homeowner but based on the current high prices on real estate, do you suggest I hold from buying or do stocks for now?

    • @kansasmile
      @kansasmile 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      investors are extra cautious right now. They want to make sure they’re getting a good deal given how much mortgage payments have gone up, and when they don’t feel like they’re getting a good deal, they’re backing out, so definitely looking elsewhere is a necessity

    • @greekbarrios
      @greekbarrios 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      In my opinion, home prices will need to fall by at least 40% before the market normalizes. If you're unsure if to buy a house or not, it is best you seek guidance from a well-experienced advisor for proper portfolio allocation. So far, that’s how I’ve stayed afloat over 5 years now, amassing nearly $1m in ROI

    • @blaquopaque
      @blaquopaque 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      sounds great! could you please suggest this expert you engaged their service? I have lots of difficulty sorting out the right investments on my portfolio

    • @db9867
      @db9867 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      ​@@bdoesbjjdon't listen to this comment

    • @nsoul4296
      @nsoul4296 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

      It really does depend, i think prices will bottom out mid 2024.

  • @weirdwolf888
    @weirdwolf888 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    Please note that it’s not just the younger generation that are first time buyers… I’m in my 50’s and still unable to buy, and unlikely to be able to now, *particularly* because of my age

    • @epic1053
      @epic1053 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      ok but thats ur problem you should of bought 20 years ago when they were cheaper.

    • @weirdwolf888
      @weirdwolf888 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@epic1053 mmmm, and in 20 years time I’ll say the same to you - and make the assumptions that you had the salary/means to do it

    • @epic1053
      @epic1053 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@weirdwolf888 at 27 years old I work as a process chemist and can afford a house right now the only reason I don't get a mortgage now is that I'm renting a studio for very cheap and want to save up more money since property are very unlikely to increase in price and might even fall slightly for the next year due to high interest rates.
      Going with a bigger deposit and havinga bigger safety net will make the next 25 years of my life alot easier.
      I make enough to get a 3 bed house but and I'm single so don't need the space.
      If I somehow screw up that badly then I would deserve people telling me this just like you deserve the same.
      It's called accountability and it's why In 3 years I went from working in a warehouse to tripling my salary even though my degree is kinda trash I studied biomedical science which is only good for working in a NHS lab and is generally low paid but I managed to break into a different industry where the pay is higher by relocating and job hopping 5 times in 3 years sometimes moving across country.
      You might not have had a good salary but there were things you couldn't done to get a better salary certainly one that would of paid enough with how cheap houses were 20 years ago.

    • @epic1053
      @epic1053 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@weirdwolf888
      Short version if my initial reply was too long:
      I have a deposit ready and make enough to get a 3 bedroom off the bat at 26 year old
      Idk how you wasn't able able to get something with how cheap everything was

    • @weirdwolf888
      @weirdwolf888 10 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@epic1053 wow, well done!
      But please bear in mind, and have a little empathy for others. Sometimes, s**t happens that can knock people right off their paths. From accidents, illness, injury, serious breakups, loss, other people….

  • @goncalosousa3192
    @goncalosousa3192 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Can you please explain something to me please? How does the crazy increase of property value over time not affect the inflation more? We’ve had over a decade of more than 10% per year increase and the inflation barely increased 2% per year! Thanks

  • @thomascunliffe4758
    @thomascunliffe4758 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Many thanks for this, i like keeping updated on the current state of the housing market. Was glad to see the regional comparisons.
    Im saving up for a move at the moment. We're planning on upsizing a little bit, so fingers crossed for a decent fall in prices!

  • @dennishaggerty463
    @dennishaggerty463 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +18

    The market correction brought on by high interest rates could be catastrophic, especially outside London, where the property market relies upon enough first time buyers to enable others to move. FTB’s also borrow a higher loan to value amounts that second or third time buyers.
    Without first time buyers having enough money to ‘prime the pump’ interest rates will kill sales until prices come down to an amount FTB’s and property investors can afford. This will have a ripple effect on all larger properties ‘up the chain’ - with some of the bigger expensive to run and maintain properties taking the biggest hit as they turn from being appreciating assets to costly liabilities.
    Potentially a blood bath of asset values, with even older property owners who are mortgage free taking a massive hit as they seek to downsize in an effort to release equity to fund their depleted income following recent cost of living increases.

    • @RabJ208
      @RabJ208 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      For 3 years now I've been hearing this. When do you propose this will happen?

    • @jibinnjonginyil
      @jibinnjonginyil 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      From the house price peak in 2022 July till September 2023 prices fell 14.1 % compare that with 2008 financial crisis prices fell from July 2007 to September 2008 18%. I not sure if everyone understands what’s going on. That’s the data from ONS. You can verify. Don’t forget the rate rises have not yet fully through.

    • @RabJ208
      @RabJ208 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@jibinnjonginyil, Average UK house prices increased by 1.7 per cent in the 12 months to June 2023, down from 1.8 per cent in May 2023, according to official figures.
      The average UK house price was £288,000 in June 2023, £5,000 higher than 12 months ago, according to the UK House Price Index (HPI) published by the Office for National Statistics.

    • @joshuakelsey1196
      @joshuakelsey1196 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      ​@@RabJ208I'd suggest you start looking outside official figures (ONS/Halifax/Nationwide etc) as the housing slide has been occurring for a while now and will likely accelerate next year. Watch some videos from Moving House with Charlie as a good starting point

    • @jibinnjonginyil
      @jibinnjonginyil 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      @@RabJ208 , I don’t think it’s a good idea to look at average prices. Look for year over year that will give you a better picture. Average prices are not reliable as it depends on the number of Property sold by price. You won’t get an accurate picture especially when the sales volumes are low. Two houses sold in my post code for 800,000 each this month doesn’t mean the average property price in my area is 800,000 although average price appears to be 800,000.

  • @sinaoladeji3555
    @sinaoladeji3555 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Very balanced and informative opinion on housing. Thank you.

  • @feronius79
    @feronius79 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    its like watching weather forecast. I appreciate information , but what's the point of worrying something you can't control. It is what it is.

  • @dc7279
    @dc7279 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +8

    U cant detach UK which has participated in a global boom/bubble in house prices particularly due to the drive to globalism and open borders. The likes of Canada, Australia, USA have historically high price to wage ratios higher than UK, and the billionaire investors in this area are predicting a circa 30% world wide decline in residential properties to correct the bubble.

  • @Tsunaniis-j5l
    @Tsunaniis-j5l 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +36

    I’m 45 and I have about $250k liquid in savings which I plan to put towards becoming a homeowner but based on the current high prices on real estate, do you suggest I hold from buying or do stocks for now?

    • @MakeamericaGreatagain-h7j
      @MakeamericaGreatagain-h7j 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      investors are extra cautious right now. They want to make sure they’re getting a good deal given how much mortgage payments have gone up, and when they don’t feel like they’re getting a good deal, they’re backing out, so definitely looking elsewhere is a necessity

    • @Damncars456
      @Damncars456 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      In my opinion, home prices will need to fall by at least 40% before the market normalizes. If you're unsure if to buy a house or not, it is best you seek guidance from a well-experienced advisor for proper portfolio allocation. So far, that’s how I’ve stayed afloat over 5 years now, amassing nearly $1m in ROI

    • @DreamweaverShade-h9p
      @DreamweaverShade-h9p 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      sounds great! could you please suggest this expert you engaged their service? I have lots of difficulty sorting out the right investments on my portfolio

    • @Damncars456
      @Damncars456 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      'Nicole Desiree Simon is the CFP that guides me, her reputation precedes the exemplary service she offers, and I'd gladly commend her on a public post, you can locate her if you are internet-savvy.

    • @DreamweaverShade-h9p
      @DreamweaverShade-h9p 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Thank you for this, I must say, Nicole appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled a call

  • @richardlongmuir8348
    @richardlongmuir8348 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +11

    Inflation adjusted house prices actually mean very little to households

  • @salmancheema900
    @salmancheema900 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    What a brilliant analysis. Good job! 👏

  • @hannahskeels3921
    @hannahskeels3921 10 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Sold two properties in probate in Oxford part of my late grandmothers estate. Both valued at £550000 in January 2023 in Oxford. Both next to each other and the first sold for £465000 it was in better condition than the second. The second sold three months later at £450000. One is completed and the second to complete next week. Other houses still for sale on the same road priced at £600000 and were on before these two houses were put up for sale. The sold prices at the peak between 2021 and 2022 were 495000-£500000. Definitely falling here but sellers are slow to show motivation only the correctly priced ones or people willing to negotiate are managing to sell. Complete shit show for buyers and sellers as no one really knows what a fare price on both sides is anymore.

  • @nsoul4296
    @nsoul4296 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Looking at my local area, prices are already down about 10%, I think there's another 5% to fall in 2024 as more people come off their fixed rate deals. I think prices stabilise in 2024 and start to recover in 2025.

  • @Caius1930
    @Caius1930 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +7

    It really seems like nothing is going well in the UK at the moment; RIP politics.

  • @NS-kc8hb
    @NS-kc8hb 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Really appreciate these videos for my CPD thanks again very interesting information 👏

  • @krisztianomboli3972
    @krisztianomboli3972 8 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Best ever summarise ever!

  • @cg4528
    @cg4528 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Property will always have value. It’s not a true commodity as it’s a necessity to live regardless of rent or buy. Mortgages even at high rates are on average cheaper then renting and even when more expensive have a value over 100% lost rent. Unless the population falls significantly prices won’t fall very far and will recover in less then 10 years. If renting don’t wait just buy if affordable and forget all the scare mongers. The benefit of your own home is a huge mental boost.

  • @russellbaker6745
    @russellbaker6745 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I have no idea why than the land registry don't have a simple portal system so estate agents can on completion of sale tell the land regisrty exactly what it sold for with evidence instead od uding the postal service and staff to shift through the paperwork

  • @georgeswampy6224
    @georgeswampy6224 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    House Building materials are costing three times as much as two years ago. Building materials have gone up so much that it is now more expensive to build a house than it is to buy the thing. Which means that no more houses will be built in Britain. We are now in a position where the bottom has fallen out of house purchase price, while rents are still massively rising. Something is wrong here, and this mad situation will have to right itself soon, and fast. Millions will have no where to live.

    • @petercollins7848
      @petercollins7848 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

      It should all be controlled by law. There will be a sort of revolution in the future if something is not done to regulate the housing market. Also uncontrolled immigration must be having its effect on the market. Companies are still building houses and flats everywhere, so costs cannot have outstripped profit yet I would not think.

  • @sammemarcel9707
    @sammemarcel9707 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +21

    Isn't it a good thing if house prices are low so people would be able to afford houses

    • @kevoreilly6557
      @kevoreilly6557 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      For new supply, maybe. For existing supply, causes a short term (2yr-ish) massive under supply.
      The actual issue in the UK is the 3.5MM unit shortfall and the 1MM+ empty “second homes”

    • @888ssss
      @888ssss 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      yes but then central banks would not make loads of money for nothing but selling air.

    • @rhinoboy6603
      @rhinoboy6603 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      That’s a bit too simple a view unfortunately. Prices will be low because no one can afford the interest rates, so people won’t be able to afford to buy anyway. The best thing that can happen is for house prices to stagnate while wages slowly rise.
      Which is what a real term price drop is, and is what we have seen this year.

    • @kyoujinko
      @kyoujinko 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Not for parasite landlords, their investments will be loosing money.

    • @richardlongmuir8348
      @richardlongmuir8348 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Absolutely,everybody should be able to own their own home

  • @acommenter
    @acommenter 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    15:05, are these forecasts real term house prices or nominal house prices?
    also what is the 0% point for these forecasts

  • @garybird8646
    @garybird8646 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Asking prices in the region I live in are already 10-15% down on boom pricing and achieved prices much lower than that. It's worrying that the B.O.E are effectively controlling the economy and not an elected Government. They've been holding out for inflation to come down but we are paying up to 20% more for fuel than we did when wholesale oil costs were comparable and food retailers have seen sales volumes drop but are making more profit thanks to them seeking higher profits. Any wage price growth doesn't touch the sides for people coming out of fixed term deals and paying through the nose for food and fuel.

  • @AlanCostaPlus
    @AlanCostaPlus 9 หลายเดือนก่อน

    You could cover different segments of the market, high and low end houses to see how these numbers compare

  • @badusername4
    @badusername4 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    House prices haven’t gone up , the value of our currency has gone down

  • @NeillTurner
    @NeillTurner 9 หลายเดือนก่อน

    i think interest rates will need to 4 to 5% long term if there is any chance to get inflation down to say 3% given high services inflation. so house prices should stagnate the next 5 years or more i think but who knows. Maybe the economy will boom and house prices will rise more or we can have a recession and house prices drop more.

  • @searchingfortruth4783
    @searchingfortruth4783 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    You did a video a few months back saying this wouldn’t hapoen?

  • @RoofLight00
    @RoofLight00 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    But demand outstrips supply in many areas in-the uk and this will have a slowing affect on prices in those areas but it will not reduce prices by anything near this touted 40%

  • @bbasleigh6149
    @bbasleigh6149 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    Giving house price moves seems very confusing with each region acting differently. Reform of leaseholds as proposed useless because the Conservative Party supported by aristocracy like Westminster and Belgravia. No other country has such a feudal system.

  • @youtubeman5033
    @youtubeman5033 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I live up north and house prices are still high and houses are selling, there’s a lot of cash buyers I had to bid for a house the other day there was three of us all cash buyers bidding in the front room, I didn’t get it and it went for £5000 more than the askin price ,there’s plenty of money out there maybe things are cheaper up north , we were all landlords I think that’s because the rental market has gone nuts the high rents are making it very profitable,

    • @barmy_irooni
      @barmy_irooni 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      You were alll bidding the front room was it 1978 or what!!! lol

    • @HumansAreShitFactories
      @HumansAreShitFactories 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Ever heard of sampling errors?

  • @jcs3330
    @jcs3330 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I think there has been a 'vendor resale house quality and upkeep crash'. Looking what is on the market today (that being fewer stock) I believe housing stock that would have brought ie 250 based upon lack of upkeep, maintenance and basic house type worth is being priced today at an average of 300k way over it's actual worth. So are house price in relation to that really dropping.
    The property stock on portals clearly proves this is happening, which maybe ok for a flip-developer, but not an independent private buyer. And this is one subject that is NOT being challenged in all this 'housing price crash' which clearly impacts the subject.

  • @powder-diver
    @powder-diver 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Not withstanding the difficulty of raising a deposit ( personally don't understand why 100% mortgages are not available as the norm) is not average mortgage repayments as a percentage of salary more relevant than house price/salary multiples ?

  • @katoi-
    @katoi- 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    When you say you suspect prices might fall by 15% peak to trough, is that in actual prices or relative to (compensated by) inflation?

  • @charrogate
    @charrogate 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Even if house prices remain stable, inflation is reducing their true value and the income opportunity in investing the capital tied up in property is lost 🤔

  • @smellypunks
    @smellypunks 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Terms have been lengthening more people are getting 30+ year mortgages and they are buying smaller amounts of the property using shared ownership. Also bank are not as quick to reposes house these days.

  • @philippendlebury4518
    @philippendlebury4518 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    No one has a crystal ball and no one can predict that prices will fall. In all probability demand will be sustained and prices will either stabilise or even rise slightly depending on the supply side.

  • @CarlWhitman2
    @CarlWhitman2 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Very informative and very useful insight thank you.

  • @connormcleod9595
    @connormcleod9595 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    30%+ correction. Yippee

  • @zoomed66
    @zoomed66 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +17

    House prices are currently priced 60 percent over the real value.

    • @fgafootball
      @fgafootball 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +9

      Based on what, exactly?

    • @Solihul886
      @Solihul886 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Demand would say otherwise

    • @100Noddy
      @100Noddy 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      This sort of comment usually comes from commentators that have a wish for them to fall to those levels. Yes they are overvalued, but not by 60%.

    • @barbthegreat586
      @barbthegreat586 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      And what is 'real' value?

    • @JGrant60
      @JGrant60 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

      Source: Dave down the local boozer

  • @Reprogrammed_By_SEGA
    @Reprogrammed_By_SEGA 10 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    There is also the issue of lenders only offering 4x mortgages on lower incomes which basically stifles the market when properties are 8x+. So if you are earning £30,000 they will only give you £120,000 which is basically useless as you will require a massive deposit too.

  • @AlanCostaPlus
    @AlanCostaPlus 9 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Do you offer any courses? Thank you in advance!

  • @loooodoooog
    @loooodoooog 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +9

    Me and my girlfriend have recently moved into our first home . We managed to get 20k off the asking price and put a fairly large deposit down however I’m still concerned about the possibility of NE. Not worried about our house price as such but rather the LTV ratio changing our monthly repayments at the end of the five years .

    • @DiscoDrew
      @DiscoDrew 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

      If you have 5yr fixed rate I think you are in a good position. Hopefully the economy will be in better shape by then.

    • @Mysterkoma
      @Mysterkoma 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +27

      You bought house with your girlfriend? Risky risky

    • @hestolemyname1352
      @hestolemyname1352 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      My thoughts exactly. Get married@@Mysterkoma

    • @joshuakelsey1196
      @joshuakelsey1196 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      I think youll be fine. Ofc dependent on the property you bought and where (true market value is mercurial thing!) because there's a chance that even with a 20k reduction on price you've overpaid. However, 5 years of repayments should give you more than enough breathing room as even the pessimistic predictions project better conditions by 2026/2027

    • @livviloolah
      @livviloolah 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

      sounds like you're in a good position if you paid a decent deposit. I would advise to make down payments where you can to limit the likelihood of negative equity or an unaffordable mortgage once you come to renew.
      we could only afford a 5% deposit when we bought in march 2022, many would say 5% is too low, but we are making down payments (5% total mortgage sum annually) and plan to continue doing so until our fixed term ends in 2027. had we have waited to buy this year, we wouldn't have been approved for our current mortgage.

  • @thomasrotweiler
    @thomasrotweiler 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    An interesting video. House prices , as you explain, are the result of many factors, not all of which can be quantified. A lot of regional and even very local variation, demand for properties may vary between size of property, condition, location relative to facilities etc. Anyways, a quick snapshot from west wales. I looked to see what was available near where I live - one property caught my eye but I didn't put a bid in. It was 400K a few months ago, now they are asking 350K. It's a new build so maybe there's teething problems. Or local prices have fallen across the board that much. I'm intending to sell a house in London. It was valued at 525K two years ago, I'm expectig it may have fallen since then but no word back from the estate agents.

    • @gamingforever6687
      @gamingforever6687 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Any house that is built (government funded) or bought with a mortgage or loan of any type from the bank is owned solely by the bank. When you buy a house or pay off a house that was bought on a mortgage you get a document that says "proprietor". Proprietor mean LEGAL owner NOT LAWFUL owner. The house was bought with bank loans. The bank owns all assests and can sell or bulldoze it any time they want. So someone spending their life to pay up a house at the end of all of that, still does not own it. Any house must be built and payed for in full by the original owner for it to be lawfully owned.

    • @thomasrotweiler
      @thomasrotweiler 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@gamingforever6687 I fail to see the relevance of your comment as I did not mention anything about legal or lawful ownership. The difference between the two in common parlance, as used on YT, is minimal anyway. I other news the house has been valued at £575 an increase of £50K in 2 years. I doubt that's what it will sell for.

    • @gamingforever6687
      @gamingforever6687 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      If a house was built on bank loans, or paid off by a mortage, the bank owns it. The point is most people dont own their properties, the bank does.@@thomasrotweiler

    • @carolynellis387
      @carolynellis387 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @thomasrotbweiler
      Watch out for the Pembrokeshire Promise

  • @CRingsing
    @CRingsing 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

    Just wait until sellers turn desperate…

    • @RabJ208
      @RabJ208 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Soon I hope! Those who think prices are going to crash tend to sell for alot cheaper which is great news for investors.

    • @Car_Porn
      @Car_Porn 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@RabJ208wait for the great taking to happen they will take all your debt as collateral 😂😂😂 see how smart you think you are then 🫡👍

  • @SallyCinnamon69
    @SallyCinnamon69 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +8

    I panic sold in 2008 due to negative media coverage, worst financial mistake of my life, house prices only dropped 10-15% rented for 3 years waiting for the predicted 30-35% drop which never came, eventually bought back in 15% higher than where I sold with 3 additional years added to my mortgage 🙄

    • @joecurran2811
      @joecurran2811 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Don't panic!

    • @Jahfriend
      @Jahfriend 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      That's nothing lost both my parents in my 20s bought a two bed freehold flat outright with inheritance in 2008. Wasnt happy with the place (in hindsight was still traumatised by seeing both my parents die at such a young age I'd already had a hard life before this there was nothing wrong with the flat )so sold at a lost never got back on the market still have the money I pulled out off it now in 2023. The flat since has doubled in price and all the time I've been staying at a family's place last 15 years could off rented so let's just say I'd easy be 300 grand better off than I am now. I worked out lol that even if I hadn't done a day's work in last 15 years I'd still be better off if I'd kept my place financially that's how much house prices have risen where I live doubled since 2008. Do I regret my decisions massively I'd be retired now in my 40s but you can't take it with you and people make mistakes even intelligent people specially when your stressed had bad stuff happen money helps don't get me wrong but it's not everything so don't be hard on yourself hopefully one day ill get back on the ladder 👍

  • @robertrobert88887
    @robertrobert88887 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    really good video, thanks!

  • @marksmith4862
    @marksmith4862 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Thank you for this information but could you display the diagrams for longer as I can't get to the pause button quick enough!

    • @rogernewton7831
      @rogernewton7831 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      That's probably because the diagrams are crap.

  • @2525Hudson
    @2525Hudson 9 หลายเดือนก่อน

    The two biggest factors for prices to not crash are supply and the increase in the population, these two things will keep the prices either where they are, drop a little or rise a little.......... until the next big push upwards !!! Then the current young people will never get onto the ladder.

  • @nicknickmm
    @nicknickmm 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Bought our house last year as we were stuck unable to sell our flat due to cladding issues. We are now planning on moving to a Canada next year or the year after to be closer to my wifes family. We didnt realise how much we would need the support as we just had a baby and we didnt want to be stuck in that flat for an unknown period of time and we wqited years for any progress.
    While there have been so many issues for my tenants with the cladding works, i still regret buying this house. We shouldve rented but we never saw things falling so much. I have learned a lot since we moved. I am so worried how much money we will lose. I am prepared for a 15-20k fall and would mean we would be ok just to move but its such a shame i just hope its not more.

  • @djlow2398
    @djlow2398 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Look at where people with money are moving and taking their money. A huge amount of millionaires moved Out of the UK in the last year.

  • @1970boggy
    @1970boggy 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Property prices will be down to 2014/15 level's

    • @rude2870
      @rude2870 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Not a chance!!!

    • @andrewtaylor6737
      @andrewtaylor6737 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@rude2870😅😅

  • @Adam-mo2qw
    @Adam-mo2qw 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Got the cash in my account earning pretty good interest now. Waiting for this drop to snap up a house.

  • @DARRENJOHNHARRIS1
    @DARRENJOHNHARRIS1 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I am not seeing prices fall with the gap between 1st buyers properties and that next run on the ladder still big.

  • @petercollins7848
    @petercollins7848 10 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Housing prices not only should fall, but be deliberately regulated by law to affordable levels. It is ridiculous that young people and others too cannot afford a place to live. Landlords are being made rich at taxpayers expense too. Most people do not realise that! Housing benefit is an astronomical £17 billion, and that is going into other people’s pockets, and you the individual hardworking taxpayer are paying for it! The price of properties could be regulated according to council tax bands for instance, no one would lose out as everyone would be on the same level playing field. (Home owner, but glad to see prices fall)!

  • @chocolatejellybean2820
    @chocolatejellybean2820 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    It can't crash due to supply demand and immigration. However expensive they get there's always demand as the govt keeps speculation high and has no intent to regulate.

  • @VikashSingh
    @VikashSingh 8 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Everything is down except the price. When price is 400,000 a 6000 reduction is less than the negotiation range.
    UK average is useless in London.

  • @bertalanlovasz7512
    @bertalanlovasz7512 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Asking price is 280k it went for 410.
    In london and many big cities it's madness to buy house, even renting ... asking price 1900 / month, went for 2400 month. Was outbidded, yes of course 1.7% drop.. on paper

  • @kcasunxion
    @kcasunxion 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    We are buying our first home as well original price is 409k sold to other buyers just few months before our reservation- they offered to us for 389k plus floor and tilings all free around 10k and developer will also pay 5% as gifted deposit worth almost 20k making our overall deposit to be 25%. So in total around 50k in discounts and value. Should be a good deal hopefully?

    • @FalloutFM
      @FalloutFM 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Ouch

    • @christinaedwards5084
      @christinaedwards5084 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I’m getting tom Hanks vibes 😂
      The money pit

    • @kcasunxion
      @kcasunxion 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@FalloutFMwhat do you mean? Ouch for the other buyers bought at higher price?

    • @kcasunxion
      @kcasunxion 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@christinaedwards5084how so? It’s a brand new house it’s still being built

  • @thelammas8283
    @thelammas8283 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Probably not. Shortage and price reduction don’t go so well in the same sentence

  • @DatFwad
    @DatFwad 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Too many very rich cash buyers. Particularly in London

  • @christianad5358
    @christianad5358 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    So many things wrong on this video.... Does this guy don't know about LTV reduction with time and re-mortgage increased periods from 25 to up to 40 years, therefore reducing substantially the mortgage monthly payments? almost nobody will sell his house only because has gone from a 2% mortgage to a 4.5%. And if you keep waiting for the sale to happen, maybe your rent has gone up or you lost you dream house because demand it is still there,.

  • @J888suu
    @J888suu 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Is it a good idea to get on the property ladder and buy a first property next year?

    • @J888suu
      @J888suu 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@muffinman4544 and why

  • @RolandK
    @RolandK 8 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Kinda strange, every time l see a "house price fall in UK" l check the internet and find only more expensive properties in the local area...
    Stop it please! ;)

  • @jazzosazzo4279
    @jazzosazzo4279 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    You say all this, but house prices have not fallen in my region of Dorset at all. If anything they’ve gone higher in the last few months

  • @chewy560
    @chewy560 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    There may be small readjustment- but no crash. There is a massive housing shortage.

  • @kevoreilly6557
    @kevoreilly6557 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    The “model” (built place) clearly has some major problems - completely predict the market incorrectly for 1988 to 2008!!
    Only of any use in a stable interest rate environment (eg very poor econometric model)

  • @mattmackenzie1111
    @mattmackenzie1111 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Wage increases are now out striping inflation by a couple of percent, and with inflation been high it eats into the value of debts. For me short term will reduce 5/10% by end of year they will stabilise and stagnant in medium term.

    • @DiscoDrew
      @DiscoDrew 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Many haven’t seen any wage increases since 2019, especially the self employed .

    • @RabJ208
      @RabJ208 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@DiscoDrew, average wage increases are up 7%

    • @mattmackenzie1111
      @mattmackenzie1111 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @DiscoDrew wages are up 7%. Most self employed people I know have put there rates up including myself.

    • @richardlongmuir8348
      @richardlongmuir8348 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I don’t think these wage increases are the same across the board,the data I’ve seen suggested it’s predominantly the service industry and publicly owned organisations

    • @RabJ208
      @RabJ208 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@richardlongmuir8348, some will only have had a 4% increase, others 10%, others 20%, others 7%. On average wages have gone up 7%.

  • @mytv3429
    @mytv3429 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    I think with inflation and baked in prices, people have less disposable income. Salaries have not went up anywhere close to CPI. The so called salary increases have been swallowed up by grocery shopping, energy bills etc Also the cheap money 15 year printing spree is at an end. The car market is all off a sudden showing signs of collapse, Porsches and Range rovers falling badly. It will be across the board other than the sub 5k car market.
    The bounce back loans, furlough and stimmy cheques in the USA have dried up. This month and last no more mortagge holidays or student loans now needing to be paid back after 3 years off hiatus. The punch bowl has been taken away (cheap money) you'd need to be a special kind to not see a correction, a large one at that is on the cards. And it's going to decimate the middle classes unfortunately.
    Don't get caught holding the baby, the signs are there your pensions are next.
    The debt pile is so huge that it's not serviceable, councils are all bankrupt.

  • @stephfoxwell4620
    @stephfoxwell4620 9 หลายเดือนก่อน

    House prices fall 3% for every 1% rise in base rate.
    The rate is up 4% so prices must fall 12% from June 2022-June 2024

  • @MP-mr8rj
    @MP-mr8rj 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Only way is up from here!
    The minute the BOE and Fed signal rate cuts look out!!! 🚀
    Get ready!!

  • @ianglover3642
    @ianglover3642 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Prices in my area of Nottingham are not falling!

    • @rogernewton7831
      @rogernewton7831 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      No. And he knows that.

  • @rufuscollis303
    @rufuscollis303 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    ....not as far as the currency.

  • @AdamWebb1982
    @AdamWebb1982 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    I hope they drop back to 4 times earnings… 😂😂😂

  • @spirokaci
    @spirokaci 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    there is NO crash. The demand is High,supply is low.Temporary Correction of prices,maybe. But NO Crash.

  • @groslait7814
    @groslait7814 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Uk housing price isn't going to fall any further,uk is on its way to become canada , cheap workers ,just see record high immigrants after Brexit, house price in large cities are not actually falling.

  • @Justin-jh4ym
    @Justin-jh4ym 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    House prices won't crash there is a housing shortage, and many overseas/corporate landlords which will scoop up the housing.

  • @karlosthejackel69
    @karlosthejackel69 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    1.5 incomers per year. It’s only going up and up until fortunately

  • @ally6438
    @ally6438 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Good stuff 👍

  • @robertl.anderson
    @robertl.anderson 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    In the USA, individuals living in cars due to partial homelessness result from a complex interplay of factors. High housing costs relative to income, stagnant wages, and income inequality drive this issue. Job loss, weak social support, medical expenses, evictions, and lack of affordable housing also contribute, while systemic problems and inadequate policies further perpetuate the phenomenon.

    • @shana.ball3
      @shana.ball3 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.

    • @juluviaarmstrong
      @juluviaarmstrong 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.

  • @SKumar99173
    @SKumar99173 8 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I have seen many sellers desperately looking to sell whatever the figure it could be.

  • @radicaljohn1
    @radicaljohn1 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Yeah dream on. House prices will double in the next 5years.

  • @DeepakDograx323045
    @DeepakDograx323045 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

    England's Rates goes too High every thing expensive which Countries poverty increases how reduced Rates no way

  • @AndrewBaines
    @AndrewBaines 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Is it a good idea to sell my property now? Mortgage has been paid off in full, then rebuy after if prices crash?

  • @sanshuma0
    @sanshuma0 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    we really need more channels like yours in the UK... Unlike US, UK finance related channels are so basic, mediocre and without depth or complexity.

    • @hendo19742
      @hendo19742 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      ALSO GOOD 👍👍🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧

  • @davidbdotcom4857
    @davidbdotcom4857 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Too many of these videos group together property as one asset class, where in reality, it's going to be the larger properties where you see this readjustment. Smaller properties will increase in value due to people downsizing to increase disposable income. It would be nice to see this video done again, but reflect different sized properties. The deficit in housing can't solved quickly, which also this video doesn't address.