Trading Signals You Can Spot Right On The Open To Catch Huge Stock Market Trades
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 18 ธ.ค. 2019
- In this video learn how to spot trading signals right on the open to catch huge stock market trades. smbu.com/mike to register for our free intensive trading webinar.
#smbcapital #stockmarket #daytrading
SMB Disclosures www.smbtraining.com/blog/smb-...
the fact that the big money cant sell all their stock in one trading day is really a piece of knowledge I never thought about. Profound for predicting the market
Good point. This just reminded me of the other setup they call the "2nd day play"...makes a little more sense in those terms
Loris Solic glad it helped Loris
Tom Bath Thxs for sharing Tom
The Market Makers have to keep all parties as close to happy as possible.... So they breakup the large orders...
People are hopefully starting to realize that they can actually be their own bank
You guys keep putting out the exact vids I'm wanting to find as I'm learning, great content as usual - thank you!
James Rowland Gr8 to hear James
Nice James!
Keeping the mentality of the big sellers in mind at the open. Thanks and keep up the good work. Appreciate your videos.
These videos always give great advice! A big thing I learned from them was watch for a break above premarket highs and I stopped trying to buy the dip. If it's not trending up I don't mess with it. I do fewer trades but my win to lose ratio is on average seven wins out of ten trades. Thank you SMB!
you are welcome!
Excellent video! Clear & concise.
Tom Bath excellent comments. Clear and brilliant.
this is an awesome video the type that you need to watch 10 time because of the concise & practical information, this is truly a "SPOON-FEED" !!!!!!
Thank you to this gentleman for sharing very useful experience and info.
What a great breakdown, so much information here
Glad it was helpful!
What I learned: I learned how to view this particular trading pattern. Seen it a hundred times, but could never articulate the phases taking place. Also, never used VWAP as a gauge. Much appreciated!
gr8 to hear the video helped
You guys are rad, thank you for all the sharing!
Very good info, Thanks
Fantastic content guys. Mastery through teaching others :)
MIke, Another great video and key learning points from SMB. I will be sure to transcribe my notes of the video to my playbook. I will tell you regardless of the date of the videos, all the techniques are timeless. I recently started Fading the Gap daily trades and this will make a difference.
I look forward to completing my Foundations Course (10th week) and moving to the advanced courses.
Excellent video. Thank you!
thx NewAlma Mater
A lot of useful information in this trade recap. Putting yourself in the Big Boys shoes when making trade ideas is very valuable.
Thank You!
yes indeed. thxs for sharing your view.
Thanks! follow what the big money is doing
Good Stuff! Merry Christmas!
Thanks Thomas! Hope you had a good one to
Good stuff guys!
These videos are fantastic. Thanks for sharing
Chris Brown you bet Chris
Thx Chris!
Love the leak-above-VWAP-early-in-the-day concept, Mike!
I like the idea of the pivot high - In this case it was easy to observe the cover pop and still verify the dominance of the sellers
I learnt that after tetra cement when it's hold in a range around vwap after that its break down range that is the best entry point for short.
Thanks Bella to taught me sharp TA.
I would like to learn this type of sharp TA in future.
Thank you,
From INDIA
Glad we could help Ashu!
SMB YOU GUYS ROCK
Very nice explanation. It cleared a lot of things.
Great analysis thanks! If you were holding this as a trade to hold, where would you have decided to exit? A couple of my thoughts - Day 2 on a failure to break the previous days lows @ 146.30 or day 3 on the gap up and failure to follow through green to red?
Have to agree with Loris, i now will look for these setups for a multi-day trade
I appreciate the constructive criticism Bella! It makes me feel as though I'm attending the class and I was even happier when I wrote "retracement" down myself during my daily review yesterday. Given the news; my play (read from your book) was to short if the premarket high failed to break immediately. Wanted to see a wick below the premarket high at the open with confirmation on the tape. Saw it and nailed to trade it at 151.63 with a stop at the premarket high. I wanted it to immediately sell past 151 afterwards and that's exactly what happened. Covered 1/3 at 148 and added the 1/3 again at 150 (also from your book) when I noticed it failing VWAP. Glad you mentioned that small range there because I noticed it too. I almost covered at that candle at 0943 because the tape went a little nuts and I was a little fearful of it going against me but stuck to my guns. Covered my last position at 147 towards the afternoon when I noticed that the trend was starting to break as well. Applied the same play with some differences with MLHR this morning too. Keep them videos coming and I will keep viewing them while spreading the word.
Luis awesome Luis!
Great work. You nailed the vital first 5 minutes. I see the pattern from your description.
Great trade and the discussion boosts confidence to short similiar like situations in the future. Thank you.
Great video Mike loved it.
PS. I have one question that I always wanted to ask you and I value your answer.
What do you think of penny stock trading and Is it worth learning? Thanks.
Excellent recap! Wanted to take the FDX short but I unfortunately used my third day trade for the week. The stars aligned for this trade and those are the ones to look for!
Gregory Jules yes an Aplus Trade as we say
Keep up the work! Hopefully you'll get to that day trader account soon :)
@@smbcapital Thanks SMB Capital! Next time I'll at least have one bullet in the chamber to take advantage of the next setup. Thanks for the awesome videos!
This video reminds me that it pays to "follow the trend."Thanks.
great inspiration
Zillionaires Club terrific
awesome!
this is one of the big three setups i make the most money from! other being opening drive momentum and buying on pullbacks with is mirror image of this trade but on the long side!
7 figure money - great, I saw SMB from Wall Street Warriors, definitely I am coming soon for classes
Great video again. Just finished your 2 books looking forward to your "7 figure traders" book coming
I hope One Good Trade and The PlayBook were of value to your trading Vaughan!
@@mbellafiore19 They were fantastic. Will be reading again sometime
How do you approach big movers with large spreads, like MIRM and MNPR today? Entry and stops.
I was wondering if SMB was going to make a video on FDX earnings miss. It was a great trade for me too!
Bella is on fire in this video - favorite moments - (1) Watch for consolidation around VWAP, then when it breaks below (or above for a long), risk on. (2) When making significant new lows, add risk by shorting pops (or buying dips when long). (3) When taking off risk, do so on the pull in and not the spike. Awesome!
As always, thank you Mike and Steve for your generous insight that only a few are able to witness.
#3 was so simple but so smart. Patience there. The mistake I see there is confusing the pull in with thinking the stock will again go lower. Just remove risk bc it told you it was making higher highs. Thanks…
I was here while this was explained ! Haha
Thank you for your new idea and all this very nice and dandy but I saw traders catching the initial big moves. First one in post market and the second one in the first 2 minutes at the open, can you describe and show how to do these tricks?
good idea for a separate video. We call that the Opening Drive.
Great video, Hey can you make a video about front running large orders on the tape?
Thxs for the idea. That strategy is not one we really teach. That is not a strategy these days that can lead to substantial and consistent profits. We are here to build seven-figure traders. I know too many who teach this as a way to make big money in markets. My experience is that is not a way to do so. Sure you can find a good scalp here and there doing this. But this is not a trade that can make a career. I hope that helps Satoshi.
@@mbellafiore19 thanks, I've been watching Futexlive videos and they use this a lot on futures trading. I am trying to become a scalper and noticed my performance has significantly improved using this strategy along with reversing after a spoof. Just trying to find what works. Thanks for the feedback sir. I scalp TQQQ btw. Keep making videos! Love them and would definitely like to stop by and check out the office one day if possible. Thanks!
Thank you guys for this video. When you say RVOL was 8.35, at what time/timeframe? Was it during premarket as you were planning the trade? Also, does anyone know how to display the correct RVOL value (i.e. using the same parameters as SMB ) in thinkorswim? There doesn't seem to be native support for RVOL in TOS, and I tried a few scripts but none seem to be accurate.
AJ M TOS does have it
@@mbellafiore19 Bella, thank you very much for personally responding to me. In TOS, is it called Relative Volume Standard StDev? I wasn't sure if it's the same thing.
If so, the default value of the study is set at 60 (bars). What do you guys use at SMB? I can't seem to get it to match the RVOL value that FINIZ shows for the stocks that were in play today.
Not sure about that RelVolStdDev thing. Like ATR, it's measuring against the bars on the chart; so if you're on a 1min or 5min chart it's telling you if the new bars are above/below the average of 1min or 5min bars, which is already obvious visually from the volume bars or a VolumeAvg.
If you want to know if today's volume is already above past days' average, that's an easy test and addLabel in tos. It might not be triggered pre-market, but sometimes it is, because on big move days volume is often multiples of the average. SMB RVOL is the ideal: volume so far today versus volume to the same point on past days; but that's too hard to thinkscript.
I don't think volume pre-market was key to the trade plan, but it clearly helped with timing during the day.
Terminology a little too advanced for my level do you have the 101 foundation of this signals.
I learned that volume and vwap are really key
I've heard Mike say a few times that VWAP is less reliable in the morning. What does he recommend instead?
It always seems like bear trends are more easy to observe and rely on to continue than up trends. For example in this instance if the earnings news catalyst was positive even more positive than it was negative in this instance would you be able to rely on the big money players really buying large positions gung ho and holding them even if they made a good profit? It just seems in general identifiable down trends last longer than up trends as if the price is going up traders jump on it and then take profit to avoid a big pull back or reversal.
Good Stuff... "My pitch" = a gap (for any reason) into open space, a break of the pre-market range, then a quick return (retracement or pullback Lol..) to the origin of where the pre-market range broke to splice into a trade. After some research, I like the idea of adding VWAP for added confidence... Do you use default VWAP settings? And I assume 1 min timeframe like many open breakout traders?
so.. would it have made sense to buy at the low of that first 5 minutes? and then simply reverse position? ... knowing that you're looking for a short and knowing the setup? couldn't that be part of it?.. I mean it moves roughly 2 bucks in just a few minutes.
Does this extreme volume signal apply on last 5mins/1mins at the market close? Assume that the MarketMaker dump the inventories right before the end of the day. Appreciate your opinion.
Covering out on the pull in of the spike against your position is quite hard, demands conviction and patience, but to consider the overall picture is the great tip here for me. Like where to add and like how down this paper has came from the open to wait for a pull in to cover.
Thanks for this.
you got it!
What is consider heavy volume?
Please make a video of when to use back ratios
Love the chats👌
Vocabulary: Retracement and pullback
VWAP: if it doesn’t hold VWAP, it’s a good indicator it will continue to pullback
(Correct me if im wrong)
Good clip. I would want to also verify the sectoral trend. Is shipping breaking down? Global slowdown coming? Answers may help with the duration of the short as if sentiment about a slowing sector n economy takes root, the first day sell off may just be the start of a much lower low....
How did you spot the "stocks to watch" on the open for volume movement or do you have a specialized screener that shows the stocks with the greatest volume movement at the open?
We have a scanner we use to help spot stocks with increased RVOL
Aside from the obvious point about institutions dumping at the open, I also learned that T1 and T2 and T3 have multiple meanings in the financial world.
Wow
@Bella, love how you interrupted him to fix his pullback vs retracement terminology!
erick5515 noted. I was having a bit of fun.
With the ever changing market, does this strategy work over the years? I’m finding I have to change my strategy in different markets.
strategies will often work and then not work for a time period. We are constantly adjusting here to changing market conditions
Would this impact Options and how would you play it?
Satish KARRY yes and you could express the trade with puts
There are a significant variety of bearish option strategies that could have been used WITH A WORD OF CAUTION. As this trade is progressing implied volatility was coming in (dropping) as the day progress. So deciding if you are long put/put spread holder OR a short call/call spread holder does become more complicated and depends on underlying behavior relative to expected move (which is declining throughout the day) and the behavior of implied volatility. Another thing to consider is selected institutions that have the authority to use options AND can't get their stock positions filled WILL turn to the options market to reduce long deltas or add short deltas.
when you refer to the VWAP are you talking about the 1minute VWAP?
We tend to look at VWAP on multiple time frames. 1 min 5 min 15 min. However, VWAP should be the same for the day on those different time frames. Test it out on your charting software and see what you come up with and what time frame works best for you
@@smbcapital there are many reply from mike bellafiore on comments, can you verify if its real account. i find it bit fishy.
Does pre market matter or should I look at previous days key levels only (support and resistance and highs and lows)?
pre market will mater if a lot of volume has traded during it
Thank you
@@smbcapital thank you! Appreciate you guys.
As usual excellent strategy. Without even knowing it I used very similar strategy on FDX using my scanner filters volume, percent and did not continue and closed my position after my target achieved on buy puts.
thxs for sharing!
yo you look like steve jobs, i trust you
Can someone please explain the reasoning behind the ATR idea of 1/2 or 3/4 for the trade to be valid?
i ❤ u Bella!
thxs for the support Andrew!
We love you to Andrew!
Mike I had asked you a question about three weeks ago in regards to what will makes ones eligible to trade on your firm but you didn't respond ??
We have a careers page on our website. smbcap.com/careers
J Cruise good idea for a video. We get a bit busy trading and working with our desk.
@@mbellafiore19
Mike with all due respect you still didn't answer my question..... but thanks anyway.
@@jcruise4150 We consider a lot of things. Trading background, have you been profitable, are you working with technology and coding trading scripts, would you fit in with our team and culture. Feel free to check out our career page and submit an application there!
Wow profesional... As opposed to all these other jokers out there. Thank you for great content
thx Jose!
Learned that heavy selling at the open is an indication that institutions are selling off big, meaning there may be more selling to come in the next few days as institutions cannot unload their entire position in 5-6 minutes
definitely a possibility
@@smbcapital happened with MRNA this week 💪🏽…I really do appreciate all the content you guys put out 🙏🏽
You always miss to mention beforehand the clear plan for SMB. Do you have this stock already or you plan to borrow it? What exactly are you getting from keeping the price down and shorting? What benefits are you getting from this? This lesson misses the beginning and the end. Did you manage to get any profit after your manipulations? How? The price is down, so what? Where is the money for you? What’s the point?
FDX was not hard to borrow. We could short automatically. Shorting a stock when we spot a good risk/reward is an opportunity we take on the desk. We do the same when we spot a good risk/reward long. The idea is to make One Good Trade and then One Good Trade and then One Good Trade and let the results take care of themselves.
We are one player out of many in the markets. It takes opposing views to make stocks go up and down. We cannot hold down a stock by ourselves. We are participants in the ride. A majority of big money players determine price. When they leave their footprints this is a trade signal for us that allows us to spot opportunity long and short.
I hope that helps Max Max.
Use Relative Volume instead of regular volume and these trades are much more reliable ;)
Relative Volume pre-market is it available in TOS?
Nope, not provided in tos. You need to look at the intraday volume bars to see if they're elevated. You can easily code in thinkscript a test of whether today's volume is above the daily average, and it often is even early in the day.
We love relative volume here!
A
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You are saying that institutions sell or buy at the opening, Why can't they just sell on the premarket?? why do they have to wait for the opening?
There is no liquidity for the large orders in pre-market. Market or limit orders usually fill at market open
Mike's more Bobby Axelrod than Bobby Axelrod.... :) And yes, I mean this in a good way
Like this, if you think Bella should do a Master Class
There isn't always a pullback or retracement, sometimes the stock will just shoot up or down and keep going.....ask me how I know. 😄
but this wouldn't apply to micro cap stocks that normally have low Institutional Ownership % correct
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I thought Mike Bellafiore and Seth Freudberg were the same person for the longest time
This market will just NOT come down....what is going on? A market has to go up and also go down to survive......not sure what to think.
With rates being so low, US equities continue to offer the best way to earn yield. That is the regime we are in.
@@mbellafiore19 Mike, thanks. I needed that clarity. Stay well.
Just provide the script for RVOL to use in watchlist then I will be good to go.
*Did well and people have been telling me about them* so I decided to hit them up and within a short time the got the work done name above.
You cannot trust signals from people you don't know I don't care what track record.
sell the put then buy it back on the bounce ... easy money.
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Please stop interrupting him. He knows what he is talking about.
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