Seems like the distance increase for the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby has been a factor since that change was made in 2020. A horse that ran in the Risen Star has finished in the top three in Kentucky every year since this change. The Louisiana Derby has produced a top three finisher in Kentucky two out of three years since the change. For this reason alone, I can't toss Angel of Empire, Kingsbarns or Two Phil's. I realize Two Phil's came 3rd in the Risen Star, but so did Zandon last year. I really like Angel, Kingsbarns, and Two Phil's to be in the top 4 at the wire. The one horse I have in the top 4 that didn't run at the Fairgrounds is Tapit Trice. I like him to hit the trifecta.
Angel of Empire will explode in the Derby. Prat has the luxury to sit back and time that mid race move that he is so good at. He has progressed so nicely and Cox will have him ready.
I agree with you on this ovservation and your point is rightly taken, I think Angel of Empire and Pratt “fit like 👍 a glove “;Pratt now is a better much improved rider.He will push the button at the right time . I think it’s a dbl from the Oaks to the Kentucky Derby for him.Good luck 🍀 to all, and God bless Elaine A.
Irod Ortiz Pulled Off A Trick Ride In The Florida Derby, Preparing His Mount To Wild The Last Two Furlongs Of The Kentucky Derby, With Two Furlongs Out Forte Will Be Motoring Down The Track All By Himself,,,,Irod Ortiz Will Not Lose His Best Chance Ever At Winning The Kentucky Derby Or Even The Triple Crown, And That’s What Irod Ortiz The Eclipse Award Winning Jockey Is Aiming At, Yep I Said It👑🇺🇸 THE TRIPLE CROWN 🇺🇸👑
If and it is a if Mage breaks well , I think he has a big chance here. He blew by Forte and then hung a little. A better break and no mid move and Mage might be wearing the ROSES!
Curious what you think about Angel of Empire making a mid race move in the Arkansas Derby, and Tapit Trice getting involved earlier in the Bluegrass stakes ?
Matt, I am surprised in your rundown of the likely leaders, stalkers and mid pack entrants, there was no mention of Wild On Ice. The gelding won its debut over 6F in 1:10.15. He was no further than 2L off 22, 45 & 57 fractions. In a move rarely seen his next start was over a distance less the 6F. His 2nd start was over 5 1/2F in which he recorded a winning time of 1:02.01. He was literally joint leader in 21 & 44 fractions. In the Sunland Dery he was within range of the leader very early. Wild On Ice is a very fast gelding. He might have inherited his speed from his sire Tapizar. Revisit tapizar's win in the 2011 Sham and you will see fractions of 22, 45, 1:08 & 1:33. You are ignoring this gelding. Were there no lessons from Rich Strike? This gelding delivered the biggest Wow! moment of 2023. But I appear to be the only one that noticed same. He was beaten by Henry Q 20 3/4L in the Mine That Bird Derby with Lasix. He retuned without Lasix and won the Sunland derby and handed Honey Q a 3 1/2L defeat which equates to 25L for reversal without Lasix. Finishing 5th by12 3/4L in the Sunland Derby was One in Vermillion. Approximately 2 week later One in Vermillion finished 5 1/2L behind Practical Move in the SA Derby. Do you still think Wild On Ice warrants being excluded from your analysis?
Wild On Ice is listed on the graphic as a stalker. I expect him to be pretty forward. For a First Look video we can’t give detailed analysis of every horse. We’ll be doing that in the coming weeks. I admire your continued attempt to make a case of the longest shot in the field.
The horse with the best edge is Derma Sotogake as he can be in the first three at the off Forte is still a threat but I am uneasy about Tapit Trice catching these front runners I believe Tapit Trice is a better prospect for the Belmont Stakes Angel of Empire is in with a chance but Mage and Verifying will make the race very interesting nuff said
On my Pentafecta ticket, I have KINGSB, TAPITT finishing first... and cant decide between PRACTM or ANGELEM . Which of those two should I pick and why?
I'd pick angel of empire. He's progressing, has a great jockey, and looks like he can handle the added distance. I just can't see a horse sired by practical joke winning at the derby distance.
@@DuyPhan-wg5wn His broodmare sire is Afleet Alex who won both the Preakness and the Belmont. Still, he could barely hold on in the Sta. Anta. and he seems to have got perfect rail trips in small, weak fields out in California. He has never traveled and may not ship well or like C.D.'s surface.
@@vernonfrance2974 if practical move hits the board or wins, I will lose. He will not be in my pick 4/5/6 bets or my superfectas. I see possibly 5-6 horses winning, tapit trice, angel of empire, derma sotogake, verifying, and disarm and possibly skinner.
I also think Angel of Empire will not be as far back as people think. He was in middle of the pack in Arkansas derby I expect him to be sitting in 10 to 12th on the backstretch in a good position to make his run
Me too... Other than Mandarin Hero narrowly missing in the SA Derby, Disarm's runner-up to Kingsbarns in La. Derby was the best effort from a non-winner in a KY Derby prep this year closing into a slow pace and earning a 100 late pace figure.
Angel of Empire is more of a mid pack horse, watch his races, he doesn't have to be that far back. He was less than 2 lengths behind Two Phil's pretty much the entire Risen Star until he went by him
Your observation is what I see as the exacta in the derby 🐎 with anyone of the other choices to choose to complete the combination bets,This K.D. Is one of the most exiting ever and will be remembered for a long long time!!!Elaine Acosta.
Nobody has had an easier path than Kingsbarns. He'll have 6 weeks rest by Derby Day. Sick of hearing about slow fractions in his last race. His other 2 races had fast splits and he won those as well. He is expected to be one of the leaders. Let him walk for 6f again and he wins. If somebody wants to go to the lead he can stalk. The question is if Pletcher can train him up to win the Derby.
Craig recalculated after hand timing the fractions. The 109 was the initial figure based on final time. Once we timed fractions he tweeted out an update to 121.
Randy Moss said in an interview that he calculated it using Beyers' formula and he figured it was 105-107. This is much higher than the rest of the Derby field.
Colin, I am disappointed that you have like so many others continue to attribute Rich Strike's win to the pace. Your horse Barber Road is closer. Mo Donegal is also a closer. Why did neither benefit from the pace to record better finish than 5th & 6th? The likes of Orb, Street Sense and even the great Unbridled closed for18 and 19 lengths off the pace to win the KD. There were no insane fractions for the first 6F in those KDs. The KD isn't a 6F race. When Rich Strike broke his maiden over 8F by 17 1/2L at CD, his winning time of 1:36+ was within the average of the 8F split for the KD. He was geared down and, in his gallop out, signaled had plenty left. Epicenter also broke his maiden over 8F at CD in 1:36+ The 8F split for the 2022 KD was slower than Rich Strike's geared down time in his maiden breaker. That meant the colt would have been competitive once the mile split was within his range. I want you focus on 2:02. It is the average winning time for the last 10 KDs run on a dry surface. If Rich Strike was unable to record such a time on the 1st Saturday in May 2022. he wouldn't have won the KD. Epicenter was the only other entrant on the day capable of recording the average time of 2:02 and he finished 2nd by 1/2L. If you consider yourself a serious analyst. You must avoid nonsense. The only fraction in the 2022 KD that was faster than all other was the first 2F. Subject to correction fractions for the 4F and 6F are not the fastest on record for the KD. Further, Rich Strike worked 5F in 59+ and galloped out 1:25+ pulling bus. It took two handlers to get him back to his barn. Thats level of fitness the colt entered the race with. His connections were in prayer for a miracle to draw in and their prayers were answered. They couldn't have envisaged any extreme fractions for the first 6F. All they knew is they had super fit colt. Trying to convince folks to stop the nonsense regarding pace meltdown in the 2022 KD, is like flogging a dead horse. An unfit Rich Strike wouldn't have won the KD. But man convinced against his will thinks the say way still. I hope you find food thought in the cold facts provided above.
Trainers are not aware of how Japan trainers go about training their horse hence the reason a second grade Japanese horse had one of the leading Derby contender pulling out all the stops in Practical Move does it not tell you what Derma Sotogake will do to this Derby field do not forget Sotogake has Sunday Silence blood in him the horse will just destroy the field nuff said
Derma Sotogake will win this year's Derby as the Japanese do have a secret weapon in preparing their horses on the international circuit Sotogake will win easily the race will be for second as a group of horses will be closing at the end nuff said
@jeroldchin1387 Randy Moss said in an interview today that he calculated the UAE Derby using Beyers' formula and he figured it was 105-107. This is much higher than the rest of the Derby field.
Cashed on derma on dubai world cup night not going to use him back in the derby These horses are muçh more talented The derby is for brad cox or todd pletcher to lose
Angel of empire is becoming so clear; I bet against him all winter and now feel stupid bc so obvious; his progression says 103 beyer when it matters. Tapit trice is lumbering and probably 3rd or 4th. El hombre is like watching ur buddy in middle school that has crush on ugly chick that gave him some😜😁. Tapit trice has no turn of foot el hombre.
What horse do you feel like has the biggest edge at this point in the Kentucky Derby season?!?
Angel of Empire/Kingsbarns/Tapit Trice would be my trifecta as of now, without knowing post positions.
Tapit Trice/Verifying/Forte
Seems like the distance increase for the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby has been a factor since that change was made in 2020. A horse that ran in the Risen Star has finished in the top three in Kentucky every year since this change. The Louisiana Derby has produced a top three finisher in Kentucky two out of three years since the change. For this reason alone, I can't toss Angel of Empire, Kingsbarns or Two Phil's. I realize Two Phil's came 3rd in the Risen Star, but so did Zandon last year. I really like Angel, Kingsbarns, and Two Phil's to be in the top 4 at the wire. The one horse I have in the top 4 that didn't run at the Fairgrounds is Tapit Trice. I like him to hit the trifecta.
Tapit Trice/ Angle of Empire/ Verifying
Forte/Tapit Trice/Two Phil's/Angel of Empire... for now 😊
Forte is a superstar and will win
Angel of Empire will explode in the Derby. Prat has the luxury to sit back and time that mid race move that he is so good at. He has progressed so nicely and Cox will have him ready.
I agree with you on this ovservation and your point is rightly taken, I think Angel of Empire and Pratt “fit like 👍 a glove “;Pratt now is a better much improved rider.He will push the button at the right time . I think it’s a dbl from the Oaks to the Kentucky Derby for him.Good luck 🍀 to all, and God bless Elaine A.
I believe your right but worried about Tapit Trice who I like Ok
one of the best 3 yrs old horses will be compete for the run of the roses. it is a competitive fields for may 6.. thank you for informative video..
Irod Ortiz Pulled Off A Trick Ride In The Florida Derby, Preparing His Mount To Wild The Last Two Furlongs Of The Kentucky Derby, With Two Furlongs Out Forte Will Be Motoring Down The Track All By Himself,,,,Irod Ortiz Will Not Lose His Best Chance Ever At Winning The Kentucky Derby Or Even The Triple Crown, And That’s What Irod Ortiz The Eclipse Award Winning Jockey Is Aiming At, Yep I Said It👑🇺🇸 THE TRIPLE CROWN 🇺🇸👑
As it’s been said people have opinions,but the horses have the facts,remember that,E.A.
@@elaineacosta262 I Value Your Opinion But Wonder Why You Capitalize Every Word. 🤔
Thanks🐎
If and it is a if Mage breaks well , I think he has a big chance here. He blew by Forte and then hung a little. A better break and no mid move and Mage might be wearing the ROSES!
Who do u think will ride mage ? Because saez on TT , im wondering will they give the mount back to JAVIER
@@G2upnext The Venezuelan trainer picked Castellano who is also Venezuelan.
That was be design only use as much as you have to save all you can only hit him once when two behind him got a closer to him and he responded nicely
Go Mage!!!
I think Wild on ice guns it and make the pace fast. If u see in the sunland derby we made a pretty fast pace.
Sadly, since you wrote this he was injured and had to be euthanized. His replacement, Skinner, will not be an early pace factor.
Curious what you think about Angel of Empire making a mid race move in the Arkansas Derby, and Tapit Trice getting involved earlier in the Bluegrass stakes ?
Matt,
I am surprised in your rundown of the likely leaders, stalkers and mid pack entrants, there was no mention of Wild On Ice.
The gelding won its debut over 6F in 1:10.15. He was no further than 2L off 22, 45 & 57 fractions. In a move rarely seen his next start was over a distance less the 6F. His 2nd start was over 5 1/2F in which he recorded a winning time of 1:02.01. He was literally joint leader in 21 & 44 fractions. In the Sunland Dery he was within range of the leader very early.
Wild On Ice is a very fast gelding. He might have inherited his speed from his sire Tapizar. Revisit tapizar's win in the 2011 Sham and you will see fractions of 22, 45, 1:08 & 1:33.
You are ignoring this gelding. Were there no lessons from Rich Strike?
This gelding delivered the biggest Wow! moment of 2023. But I appear to be the only one that noticed same. He was beaten by Henry Q 20 3/4L in the Mine That Bird Derby with Lasix. He retuned without Lasix and won the Sunland derby and handed Honey Q a 3 1/2L defeat which equates to 25L for reversal without Lasix.
Finishing 5th by12 3/4L in the Sunland Derby was One in Vermillion. Approximately 2 week later One in Vermillion finished 5 1/2L behind Practical Move in the SA Derby.
Do you still think Wild On Ice warrants being excluded from your analysis?
Wild On Ice is listed on the graphic as a stalker. I expect him to be pretty forward. For a First Look video we can’t give detailed analysis of every horse. We’ll be doing that in the coming weeks.
I admire your continued attempt to make a case of the longest shot in the field.
And Wild On Ice is OUT of the race.
Mage's pedigree is littered with Classic Distance horses:
Curlin, Good Magic, Hard Spun and Big Brown.
You won’t know that much until the post position draw, than you can make your assumptions.
The horse with the best edge is Derma Sotogake as he can be in the first three at the off Forte is still a threat but I am uneasy about Tapit Trice catching these front runners I believe Tapit Trice is a better prospect for the Belmont Stakes Angel of Empire is in with a chance but Mage and Verifying will make the race very interesting nuff said
On my Pentafecta ticket, I have KINGSB, TAPITT finishing first... and cant decide between PRACTM or ANGELEM .
Which of those two should I pick and why?
I'd pick angel of empire. He's progressing, has a great jockey, and looks like he can handle the added distance. I just can't see a horse sired by practical joke winning at the derby distance.
@@DuyPhan-wg5wn His broodmare sire is Afleet Alex who won both the Preakness and the Belmont. Still, he could barely hold on in the Sta. Anta. and he seems to have got perfect rail trips in small, weak fields out in California. He has never traveled and may not ship well or like C.D.'s surface.
@@vernonfrance2974 if practical move hits the board or wins, I will lose. He will not be in my pick 4/5/6 bets or my superfectas. I see possibly 5-6 horses winning, tapit trice, angel of empire, derma sotogake, verifying, and disarm and possibly skinner.
The Only Way Irod Ortiz Loses This Derby Would Have To Be In The Stewards Room,,,,🏆🇯🇲 Mr. KeenObserVatioN 🇯🇲🏆
Do either of you know if there going to have Turf Races at Churchill Downs? I'm hearing mixed signals
Course looks good so far. Haven't heard anything one way or another.
Yes all is well
I also think Angel of Empire will not be as far back as people think. He was in middle of the pack in Arkansas derby I expect him to be sitting in 10 to 12th on the backstretch in a good position to make his run
I agree, AOE made a very good mid race move in the Arkansas Derby, and Tapit Trice also made a good early move in the BG
Sticking with Forte all the way. At odds of 3-1, I’ll play him with five others, Angel of Empire, Kingsbarn, Tapit Trice, Derma Shotegake, and Mage.
Forte's will be well below 3-1.....I'm guessing closer to 8-5
I’m still high on disarm” live long shot in the derby
Me as well he needs rosario back on him
@@voshonwelch2962 confirmed today Rosario sides him in the derby
@@roshankuriakose7403 vindication this year
Me too... Other than Mandarin Hero narrowly missing in the SA Derby, Disarm's runner-up to Kingsbarns in La. Derby was the best effort from a non-winner in a KY Derby prep this year closing into a slow pace and earning a 100 late pace figure.
Angel of Empire is my choice for the win 🏆
Yep Angel will be rolling down the stretch. He's my top choice as well.
😊Yes 💯 Agree Ok
Angel of Empire is more of a mid pack horse, watch his races, he doesn't have to be that far back. He was less than 2 lengths behind Two Phil's pretty much the entire Risen Star until he went by him
Your observation is what I see as the exacta in the derby 🐎 with anyone of the other choices to choose to complete the combination bets,This K.D. Is one of the most exiting ever and will be remembered for a long long time!!!Elaine Acosta.
Nobody has had an easier path than Kingsbarns. He'll have 6 weeks rest by Derby Day. Sick of hearing about slow fractions in his last race. His other 2 races had fast splits and he won those as well. He is expected to be one of the leaders. Let him walk for 6f again and he wins. If somebody wants to go to the lead he can stalk. The question is if Pletcher can train him up to win the Derby.
Derma Sotogake…Angel of Empire…Practical move
I think FORTE will
Regress and finish out of $
He looked spent last race not sure how much did the Gulfstream dirt factored?
Hit Show will hit board watch Ok
Tapit Trice is a Closer. He starts slow.
What’s the source for Derma’s Timeform 121? Milkowski posted 109 for the UAE Derby.
Craig recalculated after hand timing the fractions. The 109 was the initial figure based on final time. Once we timed fractions he tweeted out an update to 121.
@@tupi005 Thanks!
Randy Moss said in an interview that he calculated it using Beyers' formula and he figured it was 105-107. This is much higher than the rest of the Derby field.
Love Angel of Empire the 2 japan horses. If it is muddy or sloppy putting some money on raise cain
Gosh i missèd loggins
The travers winner right there
We all miss Loggins at TTP. Some more than others!
@@TrustTheProphets he wouldve exploded this year
Derma took the lead in the UAE derby because he had the one hole
Colin,
I am disappointed that you have like so many others continue to attribute Rich Strike's win to the pace. Your horse Barber Road is closer. Mo Donegal is also a closer. Why did neither benefit from the pace to record better finish than 5th & 6th?
The likes of Orb, Street Sense and even the great Unbridled closed for18 and 19 lengths off the pace to win the KD. There were no insane fractions for the first 6F in those KDs.
The KD isn't a 6F race. When Rich Strike broke his maiden over 8F by 17 1/2L at CD, his winning time of 1:36+ was within the average of the 8F split for the KD. He was geared down and, in his gallop out, signaled had plenty left. Epicenter also broke his maiden over 8F at CD in 1:36+
The 8F split for the 2022 KD was slower than Rich Strike's geared down time in his maiden breaker. That meant the colt would have been competitive once the mile split was within his range.
I want you focus on 2:02. It is the average winning time for the last 10 KDs run on a dry surface. If Rich Strike was unable to record such a time on the 1st Saturday in May 2022. he wouldn't have won the KD. Epicenter was the only other entrant on the day capable of recording the average time of 2:02 and he finished 2nd by 1/2L.
If you consider yourself a serious analyst. You must avoid nonsense. The only fraction in the 2022 KD that was faster than all other was the first 2F. Subject to correction fractions for the 4F and 6F are not the fastest on record for the KD. Further, Rich Strike worked 5F in 59+ and galloped out 1:25+ pulling bus. It took two handlers to get him back to his barn. Thats level of fitness the colt entered the race with. His connections were in prayer for a miracle to draw in and their prayers were answered. They couldn't have envisaged any extreme fractions for the first 6F. All they knew is they had super fit colt.
Trying to convince folks to stop the nonsense regarding pace meltdown in the 2022 KD, is like flogging a dead horse. An unfit Rich Strike wouldn't have won the KD. But man convinced against his will thinks the say way still.
I hope you find food thought in the cold facts provided above.
Trainers are not aware of how Japan trainers go about training their horse hence the reason a second grade Japanese horse had one of the leading Derby contender pulling out all the stops in Practical Move does it not tell you what Derma Sotogake will do to this Derby field do not forget Sotogake has Sunday Silence blood in him the horse will just destroy the field nuff said
GAME
Love Derma bet Angel Empire and Two Phil's and cash it
2:45 mark.. Shadow Dragon Mdn Win. 🖐
Derma Sotogake will win this year's Derby as the Japanese do have a secret weapon in preparing their horses on the international circuit Sotogake will win easily the race will be for second as a group of horses will be closing at the end nuff said
Is that the "end" of the story ?
@@helbitkelbit1790 Feel free to continue if you wish as no one is stopping you
@jeroldchin1387
Randy Moss said in an interview today that he calculated the UAE Derby using Beyers' formula and he figured it was 105-107. This is much higher than the rest of the Derby field.
Cashed on derma on dubai world cup night not going to use him back in the derby
These horses are muçh more talented
The derby is for brad cox or todd pletcher to lose
Forte is due for a major bounce. Suckers choice.
Sorry your Right about Forte
Angel of empire is becoming so clear; I bet against him all winter and now feel stupid bc so obvious; his progression says 103 beyer when it matters. Tapit trice is lumbering and probably 3rd or 4th. El hombre is like watching ur buddy in middle school that has crush on ugly chick that gave him some😜😁. Tapit trice has no turn of foot el hombre.
Wire to Wire Tapit Trice Angel of Empire Forte 3rd Ok