Commercial development of the solar system is a legitimate goal. Mining helium 3 on the moon will allow the development of space engines that can reach 300 kps. Living on Mars is going to eventually be possible but not in our lifetime. Elon Musk can't build the infrastructure required for this. It will take generations.
I work in the field of the effects of zero gravity on bones. I would like to say one thing you have completely ignored, if I may. Innovations in medicine are sorely needed. This initiative drives them. In your field, if somebody does nothing for 50 years, they are still listened to. You assume your field will move innovation and understanding forward. But mine should just stagnate, we should all give up and go home. Why? Why do you not see this in my field, but assume it in your own? I work on substituting gravity for astronauts based on substituting terrestrial forces, specifically identified, so that bones do not lose BMD. We have a breakthrough. I would not have gotten there if not for the problem of "How do we stop BMD loss in astronauts in zero-G?" as my starting point problem so it is a valid question to spur research and innovation. I know because it spurred me. The substitute is based on a physics equation. My solution treats osteoporosis. What does yours do for humans? Mine will save your mom from a broken hip. Sounds worthwhile to me. We work to save lives because of Deep Space exploration. It is wonderful to save lives.
Things I learned from this interview 1) Brian Keating has been to Antarctica 2) Brian Keating wishes he won the Nobel Prize 3) Brian Keating loves his children so much that he can't understand Elon Musk wanting some humans to live on Mars
@@14louI don't care about the Nobel prize and I don't think about the Nobel prize. It's rarely ever mentioned on the dozen or so science journalism/news channels I listen to. Brian seems to shoehorn his disdain for it into every discussion he's able to and it's one of the reasons I don't watch much of his content. I decided to watch this one on a whim, and it made me burst out laughing when literally the first thing is a highlight of him moaning about the Nobel prize. Maybe the Nobel prize sucks for all the reasons he mentions - I have no idea. But what I do know is that Brian is super, super sore about it.
What is fascinating about this conversation is how much I disagree with Brian. The only thing I think he is using good reasoning on is about life out there. But everything else sounds to me like the "know it all uncle" that just ends up frustrating you. I think he comes across extremely shallow in this talk.
"curiosity", which keating seems to be enthusiastic about, is why humans explore, as much as the concept of "restlessness". it was not just because of "dissatisfaction" or "bordom" that people have sought new horizons. it's also "curiosity", wonder, hope. i would argue that establishing a civilization on mars is not just about preserving the flame of consciousness.. or of our more refined version of that, "self-awareness".. but also about the urge for civilization and culture to preserve itself as civilization and culture, as an amalgam of many individual "self-awarenesses". culture is "self-aware", in and of itself, in that respect. musk is pointing to the preservation and evolution of culture, as much as he is creating a lifeboat for individual consciousness.
I love the show. I'm a bit skeptical about the odds you give on alien life, though, for a couple of reasons: First, you appear to be talking about the odds of the rise of humans, which, yes, is extremely unlikely, but not necessarily the only path to a technological civilization. The extinction of the dinosaurs opened the door for mammals, but it seems to me that dinosaurs/birds had a tremendous potential to develop technological civilization that was forestalled by the same event that enabled mammals to take that path. That leads to the other issue: people tend to view the Butterfly Effect as the main take away from Chaos Theory, but it's just a commentary on sensitivity to initial conditions. Once an iterative process (which life is) is kicked off, there are, depending of course on the 'initial conditions' a substantial number of possibilities that generate strange attractors that confine the process to an infinite number of self-similar 'orbits.' The butterfly that flaps its wings in China has a tremendous impact on the iterative calculations of weather prediction in New York, but it doesn't change the climate in any meaningful or measurable way. The universe has all sorts of mechanisms of convergence, but we don't have a good way to speculate on their effects where we don't have a solid basis of observation. Human life as we know it is a long-odds result, but as you point out, once the initial conditions of life on earth were met, the continuation of some form of life over long time spans is the safe way to bet. The initial conditions for life to begin don't appear to be all that rare.
Hello, As I see it, abiogenesis is something that seem to happen given some yet unknown "ingredients and conditions", some life might end up evolving into pretty clever being, we have proof all around us and on the fossil records, but evolution don’t have the purpose to produce intelligent species, it don't have any purpose, and intelligent species don't have to reach any specific level of technical capabilities before they go extinct, hell I’m not that sure with everything we have achieved humans could survive an impact similar to the one that formed the Chicxulub crater. Even if numerous species has had the potential to become intelligent enough to develop a technological advanced civilization here on earth (like birds) or even a space faring one is a completely different thing that such specie is pushed by random events to a path that lead to that destination... after all, Neanderthals were pretty clever, much more than any bird, had a similar biological tools (body size, brain size, opposable thumbs, etc.) and a several hundred thousand years of lead on us and the environment didn't push then in that direction.
We don't know how life developed, so we don't know the odds of life occurring. The conditions for life occurring could be 1 per million planets or it could be 1 per quadrillion billion planets. Nobody knows yet,
@@AORD72 Easy, there isn't any natural process that could build the real building blocks of Life such as a viable simple protein, nor a complex polysaccharide carbohydrate. What are called building blocks like very simple amino acids, simple frozen carbohydrates on meteorites are nothing more than mud and sand blocks are made from. Note I said frozen carbohydrate because if it isn't frozen the process that makes it breaks it down. Life was engineered. You can argue about who did the engineering, but Life didn't come about by natural processes. I can't think of a natural process on Earth more complex than a tornado from a chaotic weather system. Supernovae create elements, but they are really just Hydrogen ashes.
@@ZorroComputers Even if he stops hemorrhaging money and his investments stabilize, he’s lost a huge chunk of dough on his acquisition and operation of Twitter, aka the world’s most expensive practical joke.
No, Elon is not going to Mars. Sadly I don't think any human will get there in his lifetime unless some crazy life extension tech kicks in in next two decades. I used to believe humans on Mars are right around the corner but that just doesn't seem to be the case. We probably won't even get back to Moon in this decade, so Mars in 30s just does not look realistic, even 40s are starting to look unlikely. I hope to be proven wrong but so far... Dear Moon mission was supposed to happen couple of years ago already. Yes it all could be just delays and maybe SpaceX will get to Mars capable vehicles in the future, but even if they will get there eventually it matters when, and we can see that it will be much later then Musk hoped for. And this is all disregarding his recent more terrestrial concerns. Anyway Elon Musk is not young and we are not getting to the Mars any time soon, thus I doubt he will ever get there. I hope to be wrong, I love space exploration.
I think there are several good reasons to want humanity to spread out across our galaxy, although I won't try to list them here. It's not like anyone wants to spend 90 minutes reading whatever comments I write! But I think we have *greatly* underestimated just how difficult it would be for us to reach a nearby solar system and still be alive. There are both major technological challenges and psychological ones. Meanwhile, our own human nature is making life difficult on this earth. Someone in the Ukraine isn't worried about living on Mars, they're worried about living long enough to see their kids grow up. If we cannot solve the worst aspects of human nature, we'll never get a colony on Mars, let alone expand into a second solar system.
"But I think we have greatly underestimated just how difficult it would be for us to reach a nearby solar system and still be alive." 👍👍 I totally agree!
@@NineInchTyrone I agree! We can expect to put human beings in a spaceship for months and months and months without something bad happening and killing them. 💀💀 We need a technology a travel very, very fast in space and/or putting AI to make the trip.
@@NineInchTyrone - I agree this is much *much* more likely to happen. But then it isn't *humanity* which spreads out across the galaxy, but the robots we created! 🙂
Brian says that he thinks Zubrin is way way off about our colonization of Mars. Well, for a start, the people who will make it work, those who design and build the nuts and bolts architecture of the kinds of technologies that we will need on Mars, are people like Zubrin, not people like Brian. Zubrin is a die hard fanatic about Mars, so much so that got himself educated in chemical engineering and other multidisciplinary sciences and has actually built and demonstrated the machines that can turn the Martian atmosphere into oxygen and rocket fuel and water, if you happen to land in certain places that have large reserves of frozen water you are golden..
well I have a friend who HAD the clap for months, a slow clap indeed, he said he felt like crap all the time, then got a regular health check and the doc said you been a bad bad boy, no she didn't say that but she said be more careful. Point is humans are fragile and having another planet is just good management...@@Mrch33ky
His estimate of a 4mm strong shell of biological material around earth seems off. It might be plausible if he meant only the biomass alive at the same time. But if you take all organic matter of all times together, that shell has to be at least metres thick. most limestone, calciumcarbonate, is of biological origin. these are mostly pulverised shells, bones and teeth. those layers are several kilometres strong in some mountain ranges and they cover vast areas, on land as well as on the seafloor. Taking into consideration that biogenic limestone production might go back 2 billion years, while marine crust is constantly submerged and spilled out as inorganic matter, the total volume of the biomass shell on earth has to be at least double the total of all modern limestone deposits. A layer in the range of metres seems plausible to me. The crust is only 5-20km thick and rare essential elements like carbon and phosphorous comprise about 0.1 of a percent of that volume. It´s never used completely but it has a lot of turnover, so one phosphorous atom can travel the biosphere and the crust multiple times. How could it be only 4mm?
The reason to go to Mars, and eventually settle there, is that in the process we will develop both the technologies and the human presence needed to grow out into and occupy our own solar system and tap its resources. We'll either make spaceships that spin to create artificial gravity - or discover medical means of reversing the effects of zero-G - or more likely BOTH. To reduce the mass of supplies from Earth - *because* it's so expensive - we'll focus on doing the hard things - exploiting the resources and growing food in space and so on - all the things we'll need to learn to do to eventually have more people living off Earth than on it. That's why we need to go to the Moon and Mars - to have a future. We don't have to 'race' to get there, but we do need to keep working hard at it and not give up or say things like "Let the robots do it" - even though or perhaps exactly *because* with advances in AI, it's increasingly looking like that will soon be an option. Without humans also going out there, solving the *human* problems of being there, humanity will remain less than we could become. We will become a footnote in an obscure digital file about the origins of the AIs and robots that populate the universe, listed alongside lungfish and blue-green algae as elements on the path to the evolution of the highest form of life - Digital Intelligence.
@tomcraver9659 I couldn't agree more with you. One of the primary reasons progress is limited, or one might say perhaps, throttled back on this Earth, is the increasing difficulty in extracting increasingly scarce resources. How many wars have been fought and lives lost over the acquisition of resources. Once we have the ability to extract materials from beyond this planet, for example, the asteroid belt, then they become effectively limitlessly abundent, and then absolutely anything is possible. It does dismay me somewhat when so many people do not grasp this. Elon Musk is pushing technologies and methods in space transportation (SpaceX) mining (The Boring Company), AI and community (Twitter / X) and battery technology, transport and software autonomy (Tesla). Also advancing research in mind / machine interface and enhancement (Neuralink). Now all these businesses are worth billions in isolation, so imagine the value once synergies begin to develop between them. It is clear to me this is the long term plan of Mr Musk, yet so many short-sightedly accuse him of being 'a billionaire playing with rockets' and 'messing in space when there are so many problems here on Earth he could use his money for' Whatever he achieves in his lifetime, it will be of securing a potential future for mankind. Surely nothing is more important.
Couldn't disagree with you more. So essentially, you're saying we should carry on in the belief in unending existence, and consuming limited resources and leaving nothing but waste behind, throughout the universe. Great idea (not).
Once you can tap unlimited resources and energy, you have, in every locality, the finest recycling engine possible, a star. It wont be a 'belief' in unending existance for humanity if we make it a reality will it? Men once believed they could fly, then once believed we could put a man in space, then on the moon. At the time we couldn't, and those endevours were even the source of fictional books and imaginations of authors. However, they became a reality. Thus, once we master the ability to extract unlimited resource and energy from beyond this planet, than of course there is a greater chance of mankinds proliferation into the cosmos. One thing is very very certain, and that is we are ultimately doomed if we remain here on Planet Earth. Man has an inate compulsion to explore, and advance, Back to more practical matters you raised. Any true waste product, including radioactive nuclear fuel waste, if not recyclable, can be effortlessly directied back to where it came, back in to the local star system. This is really highlighting a problem that simply wont exist.
@@christopherbuckley7544 so is your idea then to just stay on earth using it up, instead of giving it a chance to recover? You are aware, I hope, that human population is already leveling off, not because we've hit the limits of what earth can support, but because we've urbanized, and since the beginning of urban living, city families have had fewer children.
just to clarify a misconception stated in this video... nobody is talking about creating a new atmosphere on Mars, that is not possible with current technology.. the models all involve underground housing with the goal of eventually making the colony self sufficient (would take decades) Also... why are we going there... Elon has answered this...if we stop exploring, we doom ourselves to an eventual extinction level event. Humans MUST learn to spread among the stars or eventually a comet takes out everyone, or nukes, or some other ELE. By developing colonies, Humans can survive extinction level events. THAT is the why. There is a lot of misinformation about the HOW and WHY of the Mars mission here. Dr. Brian, please bring Elon on and have a real debate about this. Edit: my point got addressed AFTER the guests corrected the reason "why" but it was not conveyed at first (15 minute mark)
minute 23. This is not escapism, it is imbedded in our DNA. We are explorers and builders. We stop doing this, we may as well hang up the towel as a species. As far as many of us are concerned, the costs for the mission to Mars is not only financially worth it, but also worth it for the inevitable losses of life that will happen as we attempt this. It is the biggest advancement our explorer species will take in the next 200 years. It is a price many of us consider worth paying. Sorry Dr K.
Brian please date your videos if they’ve been released before either by you or by the original content provider - in this case this video is from an interview from July 2023 originally released on Tiggernometry channel
It's fascinating to observe how Brian turns to an ancient scripture, authored over three millennia ago by Middle Eastern nomads, for his guidance. Remarkably, these early authors held the view that the Earth was flat and the center of the universe. I call this Keating paradox or you may say...
Me too, but I also understand that Elon has really created nothing. He only has some visionary ideas and then hires the people that can make it a reality.
When I realised I was too stupid to understand Maxwell's field equations, I went to read zoology instead. On that course of study I met my wife, and had two wonderful kids. Yay. I 100% recommend stupid.
Well, you're taking Elon's public statements as if they were the complete picture as for the reasons to go to Mars. The main reason to go to Mars AND settle it is because we CAN; not because it is the end goal. Venus is probably easier to terraform than Mars; but not in the short term; but we need to start somewhere, and Mars offers a lot of advantages, even if hospitability is not one of them. The advantages of Mars are that it is a place that IS inhabitable, with some effort, which has a lot of mineral resources ... People talk about mining asteroids, which is grossly unrealistic; but then neglect the fact that thousands of asteroids lie just below the surface of Mars, and have circles around them, just to make finding them easier. Then, lifting materials from Mars to space is orders of magnitude cheaper than from Earth, thanks to a much thinner atmosphere and about 1/3 the gravity. Space industry will begin at LEO, for sure, but LAO will grow much faster and become the densest industrial zone in human history in just a few decades. Nobody will even think of constructing spacecraft anywhere near Earth, once Mars mining and industry get going. One other thing that will be abundant on Mars, besides mining, refining, and space industry, will be robots. Precisely because of the poor habitability of Mars, it will take a high robot to human ratio to make the place survivable, and the size of the robotics market will ensure local manufacturing and maintenance. So, Mars will be like the Solar System's silicon valley, most expensive touristic destination, a top priority for all sorts of public funded research, and the new headquarters for most movie studios. So, it does not matter how habitable or how terraformable Mars is; what matters is that it is necessarily the epicenter of future space transport, no matter.
Your an excellent speaker Mr. Keating. Thanks for talking about such huge and fascinating subjects in a way thats easy to understand and also injecting nerd humor. Love listening to you
It being "escapist" is quite literally the point, re a planet-ender threat. Of course, it's not a long-term solution, because the sun will cook both Earth and Mars in a 1 billion year timeframe. So the even more escapist solution (settle many different star systems with Earth life) is the even better and more necessary solution.
the interesting thing is that we are too focused on "planets" right now. what will be the game changer is avoiding gravity wells and living/producing everything in space.
We cant imagine 50,000 years into the future, let alone 1 million years into the future. Dude is talking as if 1 billion years is right around the corner. Dont worry lil bros humans will figure it out, they always have.
The best reason to expand to moon and mars is the same as the best reason for solar, wind, and other energy collection systems. For a backup during a failure of the main system. Then secondarily, the knock-on effects of developing these things. At the same time, people who don’t care for the main system, have options they can take advantage of to pursue remote living. Variety is the spice of life.
Doesn't make it false though. In fact, that's precisely the point. Idols are everywhere and the religious impulse, I've come to realize, holds many so-called "atheists" firmly within its grasp
I'm pretty sure prose means boring. Hemingway for example would write a paragraph on somebody putting a stamp on a letter. Of course it'a be more stirring than prose.
Almost everything we do is preceded by the imagination of doing so. In a sense we dream of things we wish to do. We might even put up posters of the goals we wish to reach. It is a way to begin to bring our focus on to the things that are not easily done. To have the dream of humans going to Mars must precede the actual event. All dreams are unrealized until reached. It is necessary to dream in order to reach the goal that we wish to get to. Architecture is all about planning for certain dreams of an outcome someone wishes for. Not every plan results in a building, not every dream leads to its immediate realization. To 'not dream' is has certain predictable consequences that remind me of stagnation. I would rather dream, as Elon does, even though I may never reach some goals, because by dreaming I make progress, I live my dream, I live my life with a purpose Otherwise I just pay taxes and die. The goal of putting Man on the moon advanced many other fields. The same is happening with the idea of going to Mars. Right now it motivates a huge number of people to learn about everything related to the goal and their careers being built upon it. Many will be successful although having a goal does not guarantee anyone's success. Without Imagination nothing can happen.
And, as Elon says, even if you try and fail, you will still have learned for the next attempt. Achievement is rarely attained without some failures along the way.
I love how Keating, a Standard Theory proponent, does not have an arrogant streak like so many of his contemporaries. I have no idea if he is open to alternate theories, but at least he doesn't talk down to people who are interested in exploring alternatives.
Going to Mars before establishing a footprint on the Moon is akin to trying to go to the Moon before Christopher Columbus arrived in the Americas. Mars is harder than most people realize.
@@JulianPatrickBronteGlenn not as goofy as thep eople who unironically voted for a sen ile old folks home patient thats destroying the country over thebest presiden in modern history
My astronomy professor (the head of the department) actively discouraged students from pursuing a career in astronomy because it's the only science you cannot actually touch, or even get close to. All you could do it LOOK. Even the very best telescopes looking at the very closest stars (except for the Sun) can't resolve any of the stars to anything more than an absolute point of light. A speck. All you get is the light, so we've figured out so many ways to analyze that light and make guesses about what it might mean. But there's no way to go there and check your work. You're only building on guesses from earlier observers. That's how we figured out that the Sun is actually a star, which nobody guessed before it was realized that it had the very same kind of light spectrum as the stars do. It MUST be the same. So now we have ONE star we can study closely so we can conjecture about the other stars based on their differences from the Sun. No, become a physicist or a chemist or anything else when you can bring your work into a lab and actually touch it.
So, going to mars is considered a baby step in the direction of deep space, we need to do this and we need to make the necessary mistakes, that will in turn improve our chances to exit the solar system, by building on our mistakes, its obviouosly the most natural path of progress.
We don't "need" to do anything of the sort. You just want to force the rest of us to pay for your sci-fi fantasies. No thanks. You want it? You pay for it.
You don't maintain your vehicle, because they don't give you access to the software maintenance tools. Also car designers do crazy, one-off, or unserviceable car part designs for NO GOOD REASON.
My hopes and prayers will stay focused on Elon. Whether he gets there or not does not seem to matter much to me. The trying, the learning is what counts for me. Humanity is trapped on a closed system that has a finite life span. Getting out of our gravity to learn to live and explore low earth orbit, to the moon, to the solar system - is the only real guarantee a future for humanity. We will learn, and far exceed what we know is possible today. Spin systems to simulate gravity, faster engines, better technologies, better energy generation - free fall and lack of atmosphere make many impossible things possible. We will never know unless somebody is trying. God speed Elon.
How does the Starblip keep out cosmic radiation? how does it cool the ship to make it liveable, where are the huge solar arrays..........In fantasy land Elon doesn't need to keep the crew alive, because they're never going. @@HankD13
@@HankD13 Nah none of the money he spends on his various endeavors is his own, wealthy people especially know it would be crazy to do that. Gov't money, investors & hype. Despite the vast vaperware throughout all these years he's still managed to convince enough people to make himself rich.
Really good interview, Dr. Keating. I lean more to Planetary Science myself. What do your P.S. friends say when you advise Elon's not going? I think we are going, and the challenges are not technical so much as political. NASA strikes me as an institution that has sat and spun their wheels in LEO for too long to be excited about planetary exploration. They seem to want to kill any and all evidence that could be interpreted as signs of life. Any exploration they get involved with is just robotic probes, and even that, they outsource to MSSS and JPL. We're going, just not as soon as most of us would like.
This was my first exposure to Dr. Keating. It was mesmerizing, but I'm stumped by something he said at 43:15: "Your dog doesn't know he's going to die. Your pet cat doesn't know she's going to die. Humans, the only species that know that our time is limited, that's what we know about. Now, where does that come from? That comes from the Bible." Is he saying we learned that we die from the bible, or is he saying that we learned that animals don't know they're going to die from the bible? Or is he saying something else? It's so confusing.
PSA: deuterium is fine, but don't drink tritium or tritiated water. It's safe externally (the beta particles it emits dont penetrate skin) but not for internal use.
I totally believe there is life out there, but very VERY rare. Technological life?... Is probably so rare that we are probably the only one to arise within this galaxy and the next 10 billion next to us.
🤣🤣RARE?! intelligent life is not RARE,life is not special,there's probably BILLIONS OR TRILLIONS of intelligent life out there most are for sure a lot more intelligent than any human who's ever existed. People like you are in denial of the vastness of a galaxy let alone the universe,GET YOUR HEAD OUT YOUR DREAMS.
Look at our world in a TEMPORAL sense. The earliest life started evolving between 4.2 and 4.5 billion years ago and we have about 2 thirds of a century of life existing on this world capable of interstellar radio communication. I think LIFE ITSELF is VERY COMMON if you count microbes and viruses and fungus etc but that almost all life in the universe does NOT have the technological capability to be sending us radio signals. The people at SETI need to get their heads out of their @$$3$ with trying to do RADIO COMMUNICATION and try to come up with a DIFFERENT way of finding life. I think we have a universe full of plants and animals and protozoa and maybe on only 0.000000001 percent of those living worlds does a civilization (like ours) arise that has what we would consider advanced technology. Technology much more advanced than ours (fermi peradox) is EVEN MORE RARE.
Maybe true but the insane scale of the universe, way beyond our comprehension, means physical contact is impossible. 50 to 100 thousand years travel to the nearest star with 8 years to send and receive a message for starters!
@@geraldbutler5484 They might soon have a ship that can get to the nearest stars in only 13,000 years if what I heard is true. They made a rocket that goes 60 miles second but the problem is its a glorified bullet and they need to find a way to get that speed with a large space ship.
Btw this sounds snarky but it wasn’t meant to be. I love your content. I wish science communicators were less… conservative… in painting a picture of what is possible. The world needs that optimism today more than ever
I thoroughly enjoyed that. Brian suggests that people looking to go to the moon and mars etc, displays a level of unhappiness within themselves or their lives. That may be true on some level since even the excitement of a voyage of discovery and thrill of taking a risky step into the unknown displays that NOT doing that is less preferred for some reason BUT, since we're aware of our planets ultimate ending and the plethora of ways our brief little civilization could end, isn't the act of leaving and exploring other worlds as possible new habitats and homes less about being unhappy in ones current setup here on earth and more an instinctual push to survive? The problem with staying here on earth indefinitely is doing so will ultimately kill us at some point. We currently can't escape this planet and that makes our civilizations existence extremely vulnerable. Sure, we may never be able to escape some cataclysmic event that encompasses our entire solar system but certainly having the ability to escape a massive asteroid impact or global disaster that requires our absence from this planet for a decade or century etc... ya, it would be enough to give a person a strong drive to try and do something about it if they were in a position to do so. So perhaps Elon might have to make the terrible choice of having to leave his children behind for a long time, but perhaps it's his parental drive that pushes him to do it, because he's aware of how extremely vulnerable being stuck in just one unprotected planet is. Perhaps I'm flattering him and his reasons are far more self driven.
This guy is either ignorant or lying. Musk has made it very clear many times that one of the main reasons he wants to get people to Mars is to ensure the continuation of the human species in case something happens to Earth.
As a youth, Keating was a member of the Catholic Church. He later became an atheist, and subsequently he became Jewish, describing himself as a 'practicing devout agnostic'. WIKI
Hi Brian, love your work and follow you a lot but you said something in this episode that struck me. That Human are the only species that have knowledge of their own mortality/death What about elephants that go to their graveyards to die and whales that beach themselves. But I loved your words on the confusion many people have over knowledge and wisdom, that will stick with me for a long time
Yeah even pet cats will often leave the house & find somewhere quiet to die. They know its coming. It's fascinating as it is sad. Animals have to be aware of their own mortality. It's hardwired into their genetic makeup in order to survive
I agree with Dr Brian that curiosity is extremely important. Sadly I myself along with many other people are trying so hard to just survive, it leaves no appreciable amount of time to spend on things that interests us. Not to mention my terrible childhood and parents who were not exactly inspiring me to be curious in the natural world. As a society we really need to take a good look at how the pressures of daily life just sucks out any curiosity some people might have. That along with making sure parents are well trained in how to raise children.
Sadly humanity and civilization are build on injustices. From our animal instinct we inherited a need for hierarchies, like in a wolf pack, or Peterson's lobster, and we are not all born equals, so... To the most grandiose, advanced and refined human realization, some people need to do the ground work if you want to build pyramids, high towers, also who will wash the dishes and clean the toilets, in these nice restaurants and hotels, if there is no inequality? That said we are all different, you could find curious, high IQ people coming from modest families, and terrible people born with the proverbial silver spoon in their mouth, you can find nice, good people who are not great brains, and evil people that are very smart... Of course most of our destiny is already decided at birth, at least that's my conclusion, despite my belief in free will!
Most striking is the initial 2 minutes. This guy understood the initial question, acknowledged it's important. Yet he COMPLETELY IGNORED IT. He didn't answer it because he was there to talk, talk, talk - to listen to his own voice. His posture also made him look cocky.
14:57 4mm seems low. If I'm not mistaken, just the estimated world oil reserves, spread evenly over the earth, would be about 4mm thick. And presumably not all dead vegetation ended up as oil. Does the 4mm figure include things like limestone that came from the shells of sea creatures?
Yeah, I quit watching this BS after that. The guy claims that its cumulatively 4mm while the current soil and biomass is more than that. That includes all sediments on the bottom of the ocean and thats just current. He said its cumulatively over the "ever". He is mitomaniac and bulshitter.
I think it is just the current biomass. Quick calc (all just VERY rough): 1 human 10m^2 = all humans 100.000km^2, humans around 0.01% current biomass -> 1.000.000.000km^2. so could be just current biomass. I couldnt imagine Keating beeing that far off, but all biomass ever or all current biomass is an easily made mistake for fun facts.
How the hell are we EVER going to have a future similar to STAR TREK where galactic exploration happens with people traveling hundreds or even thousands of light YEARS from Earth when getting to a world that is (at its closest as that is how it would be timed to save resources) TWO AND A HALF LIGHT MINUTES away? Hell, we have not sent anyone to the moon in over half a century and that is one point two light seconds away.
Elon actually recognises that it is possible he will not see Mars colonised in his lifetimexand he might not see Mars at all. But this seems to me to even more creditable. To invest and strive in a multi generatiobal project seems to me to be a commitment that few would make. Im reminded of the struggling artist who provably kniw their efforts will not be recognised until they are dead. Tgey donit because it us meaningful to them. And tgats enough!
Listening to his comments about traveling to Mars reveals the problem of asking scientists questions of engineering. He made so many assumptions that it’s clear he hasn’t actually studied Elon‘s plan. He said you would go to Mars with only three or four people for years? No man there will be fleets of ships all going at once. There will be lots of people to talk to. Each ship will hold at least 10 people and Elon claims up to 100 with multiple ships going during each transfer window. Next, he said there will be no return trip. Again, not true. Elon has made it very clear. He wants the rocket back. Ships will be returning back to earth every two years so hop on whichever one you feel like. Again, scientists, please leave engineering to engineers.
@@ailblentynhe is doing that. That's how he got his rockets to work when everyone in media was clowning on him. He clearly knows how to manage his human resources. Your comment is dumb, because said nothing relevant to the comment and tried to take an empty shot at Elon because you don't like him; because other people don't like him.
Assuming SpaceX is successful, most starships which land on Mars will never return. It makes no sense to return the Starships as they are more valuable on Mars as pressure vessels. Secondly, there will never be enough energy to refuel them.
One of the greatest things about capitalism is that we can all focus our own resources on what we think is best. For any one person to claim that what other people are doing with their own resources is a misallocation is a complete denial of that. May the best ideas win!
Always have a backup, plus if shit hits the fan on earth, the colony is safe from nukes. And let's be real, the threat of annihilation reared it's ugly head in 1945, and it will never go away.
We can't even get it right on Earth! Feels irresponsible to spend resources and effort on repeating it elsewhere instead of focusing on our own planet. People with Mars fantasies have been watching WAY too much Hollywood!
Earth is going to die no matter what we do. All we can do is try to slow it. That is all. Focusing only on Earth is a literal death sentence to our species.
This was a great discussion (and I'm only 1 hour in)! "honest conversations with fascinating people" - indeed. This one definitely lives up to that, as usual with the Triggernometry guys!
This conversation regarding going to Mars is a microcosm of the larger conversation that every culture of high potential will face in its long evolution; 'To go or to stay'. The answer to this question will determine the nature of a species and its long-term relationship and occupancy in this universe. The circumstantial reasons to go or to stay will be varied but the answer to this question will ultimately define the character of any developing culture. Also, make no mistake, if humankind can't settle on Mars, it can't settle in any more distant habitat.
We try, we fail (sort of), we try again; progress is not an end in itself. Its as much about the going as it is about the being there, wherever/whatever the 'there' is.
Why we can't inhabit ocean instead of Mars? Because ocean is still the same planet we live on, with all the same risks. Did you even process the argument?
I think Elon will accomplish with the best engineers he has access to, of sending man to Mars. I believe his time frame doesn't make sense for this. But I believe in his lifetime, it will happen and I think Elon would be happy with that just hearing it happened before he passes away. That to me is progress that we need to make in order for the really difficult stuff to happen, happens. One person dedicating their life to making something great happen. Even though it's a small step, it's a great one that will change the course of direction for man. After man goes to Mars for the first time, I believe we won't go back again. Similar to the Moon, it'll get abandoned. Maybe some day we'll go back again, most likely robots and machines will always go to Mars. But I highly doubt man will ever colonize Mars.
Exactly. We won't settle there this century, but people will surely have walked there in Musk's lifetime. According to his autobiography, his ultimate goal is to personally set foot on Mars before he dies, even if it ends with him dying on Mars. It would surely be an extraordinary achievement to be the first human to die on another planet. If anyone has the resources, talented staff and drivee behind them to achieve that goal then surely it's Elon Musk.
I don´t think Elon will be particularly happy about someone else getting to Mars. He wants to get there himself. He is running away from something, the first step was leaving the school where he was bullied, the second step was leaving his abysmal native country and the third step will be leaving his home planet. He wants to get to a place where he can build everything from the start and where he will be the ruler, the dictator of a utopian society.
Whatever your individual opinions on Mars itself are, humanity has the technology - and thus the DUTY - to ensure that Life outlives whatever catastrophe our very dangerous universe can throw at Earth. Life must exist elsewhere, to stand a chance at long-term survival. The worry is that our window of opportunity to seek the other worlds will not stay open for long. Human civilisation is NOT necessarily resilient. We're prone to incredible violence against each other, of course, but we're also prone to terrible ideas like depopulation and childlessness.
I have no faith in his comment that all life that has existed would only create a 4mm layer. Things like oil deposits would indicate otherwise. Bacteria though tiny, turn over pretty quickly.
No offense Brian, but others said similar things about some of his other feats. For someone such as Elon who really advances us in the science sector. You should be more supportive of him. I really hate it that you said this.
I'm not saying we are being visited. I don't really know. But are you here saying it's IMPOSSIBLE that we could be visited? When is a good timeline in your head for the possibility of other life finding us?
@@bigcauc7530 After these recent UFO hearings, I am now taking the topic seriously. I’m still waiting to see some evidence, and I’m curious what comes next, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. I think it is silly for people to hand wave away any internet, just because it seems “far out.” With the James Webb telescope findings, we are very close to detecting life another planet. I would not be surprised if we had concrete proof of extraterrestrial life within the next 50 years.
16:41 paraphrasing: "it's not a picnic to travel to another planet and not go crazy there" good point, but there are certain types of people who could and would handle such a mission. just because "the majority" of people are much too fragile to be isolated in that way for years, does not mean that it can't be done. surely it must be possible to select for people who are or can be described as "lone wolves" or simply loners, to select these people and send up there in order to maximize a successful outcome.
Haters: musk will never get EVs to be profitable, it’s just not realistic. Haters: Musk will never get a private space company to work, land rockets, impossible, it’s just not realistic. Haters: Musk is never going to go to Mars it’s just not… wait….
Musk has failed to deliver on nearly every single one of his promises. Hyperloop never went anywhere, self-driving cars are nowhere near fully autonomous, robotaxis. Elon is the king of making empty ambitious promises. The worst of it all: He himself has done NOTHING.
I think Brian's take is not just pessimistic, but it fails to acknowledge the value of inspiration. All of the difficulties he outlines are real, including some he doesn't even mention. And yes, ancient explorers didn't have to worry about life support or finding food. But they also explored and reached out with far more struggle, almost zero tech, and willing to lose people on a far greater scale. Brian's take seems to encourage not striving, not reaching for the stars, not expanding our domain. I don't see Elon dismissing the difficulties, I see him taking them head on. Our ancestors built the industry of this country with a can-do, get it done attitude. A little more of that please.
Like humanity has earned the moral goods to just screw over this vacuum and then leave to go screw over another one. How about we explore humility as intellectual beings here first?
![Three Reasons Why Elon Musk Will FAIL To Colonize Mars | Zach Weinersmith [Ep. 434]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/8UjlSOF1Cvg/mqdefault.jpg)
![🔴 ฟุตบอลแชมป์กีฬา 7HD แชมเปียน คัพ 2024 [รอบ 8 ทีมสุดท้าย] - ช่วงเช้า](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/bXFWzzy4UJw/mqdefault.jpg)
*_Will humans ever live on Mars?_*
Commercial development of the solar system is a legitimate goal. Mining helium 3 on the moon will allow the development of space engines that can reach 300 kps. Living on Mars is going to eventually be possible but not in our lifetime. Elon Musk can't build the infrastructure required for this. It will take generations.
I work in the field of the effects of zero gravity on bones. I would like to say one thing you have completely ignored, if I may.
Innovations in medicine are sorely needed. This initiative drives them.
In your field, if somebody does nothing for 50 years, they are still listened to. You assume your field will move innovation and understanding forward.
But mine should just stagnate, we should all give up and go home.
Why? Why do you not see this in my field, but assume it in your own?
I work on substituting gravity for astronauts based on substituting terrestrial forces, specifically identified, so that bones do not lose BMD.
We have a breakthrough.
I would not have gotten there if not for the problem of "How do we stop BMD loss in astronauts in zero-G?" as my starting point problem so it is a valid question to spur research and innovation. I know because it spurred me.
The substitute is based on a physics equation. My solution treats osteoporosis. What does yours do for humans? Mine will save your mom from a broken hip. Sounds worthwhile to me. We work to save lives because of Deep Space exploration. It is wonderful to save lives.
I'm starting to see the unpracticality of it - and have embraced pessimism
of course. But i will not live to prove it
We were promised to be living on the moon by 2000. So, no.
Things I learned from this interview
1) Brian Keating has been to Antarctica
2) Brian Keating wishes he won the Nobel Prize
3) Brian Keating loves his children so much that he can't understand Elon Musk wanting some humans to live on Mars
3) You missed the part where Brain said 'not yet'.
Brian Keating being sore about not winning the Nobel prize will forever be his defining characteristic.
@@jwortman1984 Why would you want to join the company of previous "winners"?
@@14louI don't care about the Nobel prize and I don't think about the Nobel prize. It's rarely ever mentioned on the dozen or so science journalism/news channels I listen to.
Brian seems to shoehorn his disdain for it into every discussion he's able to and it's one of the reasons I don't watch much of his content. I decided to watch this one on a whim, and it made me burst out laughing when literally the first thing is a highlight of him moaning about the Nobel prize.
Maybe the Nobel prize sucks for all the reasons he mentions - I have no idea. But what I do know is that Brian is super, super sore about it.
"Elon Musk wanting some humans to live on Mars" is just more of his typical self-serving bs and deceit.
What is fascinating about this conversation is how much I disagree with Brian. The only thing I think he is using good reasoning on is about life out there. But everything else sounds to me like the "know it all uncle" that just ends up frustrating you. I think he comes across extremely shallow in this talk.
"Cosmos" means "order" not "beauty." Cosmos is literally the opposite of chaos.
Keating is a lying pontificating prat.
"curiosity", which keating seems to be enthusiastic about, is why humans explore, as much as the concept of "restlessness". it was not just because of "dissatisfaction" or "bordom" that people have sought new horizons. it's also "curiosity", wonder, hope. i would argue that establishing a civilization on mars is not just about preserving the flame of consciousness.. or of our more refined version of that, "self-awareness".. but also about the urge for civilization and culture to preserve itself as civilization and culture, as an amalgam of many individual "self-awarenesses". culture is "self-aware", in and of itself, in that respect. musk is pointing to the preservation and evolution of culture, as much as he is creating a lifeboat for individual consciousness.
The Nobel is meant to challenge and inspire people to greatness. Don't be bitter if you don't win one :) Do better not bitter :)
I love the show. I'm a bit skeptical about the odds you give on alien life, though, for a couple of reasons: First, you appear to be talking about the odds of the rise of humans, which, yes, is extremely unlikely, but not necessarily the only path to a technological civilization. The extinction of the dinosaurs opened the door for mammals, but it seems to me that dinosaurs/birds had a tremendous potential to develop technological civilization that was forestalled by the same event that enabled mammals to take that path. That leads to the other issue: people tend to view the Butterfly Effect as the main take away from Chaos Theory, but it's just a commentary on sensitivity to initial conditions. Once an iterative process (which life is) is kicked off, there are, depending of course on the 'initial conditions' a substantial number of possibilities that generate strange attractors that confine the process to an infinite number of self-similar 'orbits.' The butterfly that flaps its wings in China has a tremendous impact on the iterative calculations of weather prediction in New York, but it doesn't change the climate in any meaningful or measurable way. The universe has all sorts of mechanisms of convergence, but we don't have a good way to speculate on their effects where we don't have a solid basis of observation. Human life as we know it is a long-odds result, but as you point out, once the initial conditions of life on earth were met, the continuation of some form of life over long time spans is the safe way to bet. The initial conditions for life to begin don't appear to be all that rare.
Hello, As I see it, abiogenesis is something that seem to happen given some yet unknown "ingredients and conditions", some life might end up evolving into pretty clever being, we have proof all around us and on the fossil records, but evolution don’t have the purpose to produce intelligent species, it don't have any purpose, and intelligent species don't have to reach any specific level of technical capabilities before they go extinct, hell I’m not that sure with everything we have achieved humans could survive an impact similar to the one that formed the Chicxulub crater.
Even if numerous species has had the potential to become intelligent enough to develop a technological advanced civilization here on earth (like birds) or even a space faring one is a completely different thing that such specie is pushed by random events to a path that lead to that destination... after all, Neanderthals were pretty clever, much more than any bird, had a similar biological tools (body size, brain size, opposable thumbs, etc.) and a several hundred thousand years of lead on us and the environment didn't push then in that direction.
We don't know how life developed, so we don't know the odds of life occurring. The conditions for life occurring could be 1 per million planets or it could be 1 per quadrillion billion planets. Nobody knows yet,
If a butterfly gets a cold in a Chinese wet market tho...whoa baby!
@@AORD72 Easy, there isn't any natural process that could build the real building blocks of Life such as a viable simple protein, nor a complex polysaccharide carbohydrate. What are called building blocks like very simple amino acids, simple frozen carbohydrates on meteorites are nothing more than mud and sand blocks are made from. Note I said frozen carbohydrate because if it isn't frozen the process that makes it breaks it down. Life was engineered. You can argue about who did the engineering, but Life didn't come about by natural processes. I can't think of a natural process on Earth more complex than a tornado from a chaotic weather system. Supernovae create elements, but they are really just Hydrogen ashes.
@@MountainFisher Thank you, someone who gets it.
I think the correct statement is "Elon is going to Mars but Brian isn't"
Elon won’t be going either
He is going bankrupt, that is for sure.
@@ZorroComputers Even if he stops hemorrhaging money and his investments stabilize, he’s lost a huge chunk of dough on his acquisition and operation of Twitter, aka the world’s most expensive practical joke.
Kind of like complaining about the Nobel prize.
No, Elon is not going to Mars. Sadly I don't think any human will get there in his lifetime unless some crazy life extension tech kicks in in next two decades.
I used to believe humans on Mars are right around the corner but that just doesn't seem to be the case. We probably won't even get back to Moon in this decade, so Mars in 30s just does not look realistic, even 40s are starting to look unlikely.
I hope to be proven wrong but so far... Dear Moon mission was supposed to happen couple of years ago already. Yes it all could be just delays and maybe SpaceX will get to Mars capable vehicles in the future, but even if they will get there eventually it matters when, and we can see that it will be much later then Musk hoped for.
And this is all disregarding his recent more terrestrial concerns.
Anyway Elon Musk is not young and we are not getting to the Mars any time soon, thus I doubt he will ever get there. I hope to be wrong, I love space exploration.
"Is There Something For Us On Mars?" YES Marvin's Illudium Q-36 explosive space modulator.
Finally, at least one person who knows what he is talking about. 👍
I think there are several good reasons to want humanity to spread out across our galaxy, although I won't try to list them here. It's not like anyone wants to spend 90 minutes reading whatever comments I write! But I think we have *greatly* underestimated just how difficult it would be for us to reach a nearby solar system and still be alive. There are both major technological challenges and psychological ones. Meanwhile, our own human nature is making life difficult on this earth. Someone in the Ukraine isn't worried about living on Mars, they're worried about living long enough to see their kids grow up. If we cannot solve the worst aspects of human nature, we'll never get a colony on Mars, let alone expand into a second solar system.
"But I think we have greatly underestimated just how difficult it would be for us to reach a nearby solar system and still be alive." 👍👍
I totally agree!
Our AI robots MAY go into space but not actual human beings
@@NineInchTyrone I agree! We can expect to put human beings in a spaceship for months and months and months without something bad happening and killing them. 💀💀
We need a technology a travel very, very fast in space and/or putting AI to make the trip.
@@NineInchTyrone - I agree this is much *much* more likely to happen. But then it isn't *humanity* which spreads out across the galaxy, but the robots we created! 🙂
Doesn't seem like NHI would even want us out there. 😅
Brian says that he thinks Zubrin is way way off about our colonization of Mars. Well, for a start, the people who will make it work, those who design and build the nuts and bolts architecture of the kinds of technologies that we will need on Mars, are people like Zubrin, not people like Brian. Zubrin is a die hard fanatic about Mars, so much so that got himself educated in chemical engineering and other multidisciplinary sciences and has actually built and demonstrated the machines that can turn the Martian atmosphere into oxygen and rocket fuel and water, if you happen to land in certain places that have large reserves of frozen water you are golden..
Having made it all the way through this interview, I find I suddenly have a new grasp of the true scale of geologic time.
slow clap
well I have a friend who HAD the clap for months, a slow clap indeed, he said he felt like crap all the time, then got a regular health check and the doc said you been a bad bad boy, no she didn't say that but she said be more careful. Point is humans are fragile and having another planet is just good management...@@Mrch33ky
His estimate of a 4mm strong shell of biological material around earth seems off. It might be plausible if he meant only the biomass alive at the same time. But if you take all organic matter of all times together, that shell has to be at least metres thick.
most limestone, calciumcarbonate, is of biological origin. these are mostly pulverised shells, bones and teeth. those layers are several kilometres strong in some mountain ranges and they cover vast areas, on land as well as on the seafloor.
Taking into consideration that biogenic limestone production might go back 2 billion years, while marine crust is constantly submerged and spilled out as inorganic matter, the total volume of the biomass shell on earth has to be at least double the total of all modern limestone deposits.
A layer in the range of metres seems plausible to me. The crust is only 5-20km thick and rare essential elements like carbon and phosphorous comprise about 0.1 of a percent of that volume. It´s never used completely but it has a lot of turnover, so one phosphorous atom can travel the biosphere and the crust multiple times.
How could it be only 4mm?
The reason to go to Mars, and eventually settle there, is that in the process we will develop both the technologies and the human presence needed to grow out into and occupy our own solar system and tap its resources. We'll either make spaceships that spin to create artificial gravity - or discover medical means of reversing the effects of zero-G - or more likely BOTH. To reduce the mass of supplies from Earth - *because* it's so expensive - we'll focus on doing the hard things - exploiting the resources and growing food in space and so on - all the things we'll need to learn to do to eventually have more people living off Earth than on it.
That's why we need to go to the Moon and Mars - to have a future.
We don't have to 'race' to get there, but we do need to keep working hard at it and not give up or say things like "Let the robots do it" - even though or perhaps exactly *because* with advances in AI, it's increasingly looking like that will soon be an option. Without humans also going out there, solving the *human* problems of being there, humanity will remain less than we could become. We will become a footnote in an obscure digital file about the origins of the AIs and robots that populate the universe, listed alongside lungfish and blue-green algae as elements on the path to the evolution of the highest form of life - Digital Intelligence.
@tomcraver9659 I couldn't agree more with you. One of the primary reasons progress is limited, or one might say perhaps, throttled back on this Earth, is the increasing difficulty in extracting increasingly scarce resources. How many wars have been fought and lives lost over the acquisition of resources. Once we have the ability to extract materials from beyond this planet, for example, the asteroid belt, then they become effectively limitlessly abundent, and then absolutely anything is possible. It does dismay me somewhat when so many people do not grasp this.
Elon Musk is pushing technologies and methods in space transportation (SpaceX) mining (The Boring Company), AI and community (Twitter / X) and battery technology, transport and software autonomy (Tesla). Also advancing research in mind / machine interface and enhancement (Neuralink). Now all these businesses are worth billions in isolation, so imagine the value once synergies begin to develop between them.
It is clear to me this is the long term plan of Mr Musk, yet so many short-sightedly accuse him of being 'a billionaire playing with rockets' and 'messing in space when there are so many problems here on Earth he could use his money for' Whatever he achieves in his lifetime, it will be of securing a potential future for mankind. Surely nothing is more important.
Couldn't disagree with you more.
So essentially, you're saying we should carry on in the belief in unending existence, and consuming limited resources and leaving nothing but waste behind, throughout the universe. Great idea (not).
Once you can tap unlimited resources and energy, you have, in every locality, the finest recycling engine possible, a star.
It wont be a 'belief' in unending existance for humanity if we make it a reality will it? Men once believed they could fly, then once believed we could put a man in space, then on the moon. At the time we couldn't, and those endevours were even the source of fictional books and imaginations of authors. However, they became a reality. Thus, once we master the ability to extract unlimited resource and energy from beyond this planet, than of course there is a greater chance of mankinds proliferation into the cosmos. One thing is very very certain, and that is we are ultimately doomed if we remain here on Planet Earth. Man has an inate compulsion to explore, and advance,
Back to more practical matters you raised.
Any true waste product, including radioactive nuclear fuel waste, if not recyclable, can be effortlessly directied back to where it came, back in to the local star system.
This is really highlighting a problem that simply wont exist.
@@christopherbuckley7544 so is your idea then to just stay on earth using it up, instead of giving it a chance to recover? You are aware, I hope, that human population is already leveling off, not because we've hit the limits of what earth can support, but because we've urbanized, and since the beginning of urban living, city families have had fewer children.
just to clarify a misconception stated in this video... nobody is talking about creating a new atmosphere on Mars, that is not possible with current technology.. the models all involve underground housing with the goal of eventually making the colony self sufficient (would take decades)
Also... why are we going there... Elon has answered this...if we stop exploring, we doom ourselves to an eventual extinction level event. Humans MUST learn to spread among the stars or eventually a comet takes out everyone, or nukes, or some other ELE. By developing colonies, Humans can survive extinction level events. THAT is the why.
There is a lot of misinformation about the HOW and WHY of the Mars mission here.
Dr. Brian, please bring Elon on and have a real debate about this.
Edit: my point got addressed AFTER the guests corrected the reason "why" but it was not conveyed at first (15 minute mark)
minute 23. This is not escapism, it is imbedded in our DNA. We are explorers and builders. We stop doing this, we may as well hang up the towel as a species. As far as many of us are concerned, the costs for the mission to Mars is not only financially worth it, but also worth it for the inevitable losses of life that will happen as we attempt this. It is the biggest advancement our explorer species will take in the next 200 years. It is a price many of us consider worth paying. Sorry Dr K.
Brian please date your videos if they’ve been released before either by you or by the original content provider - in this case this video is from an interview from July 2023 originally released on Tiggernometry channel
It's fascinating to observe how Brian turns to an ancient scripture, authored over three millennia ago by Middle Eastern nomads, for his guidance. Remarkably, these early authors held the view that the Earth was flat and the center of the universe.
I call this Keating paradox or you may say...
I'm so old I can remember knowledgeable people who stated unequivocally that Elon would never create a rocket that could land and be reused.
Me too, but I also understand that Elon has really created nothing. He only has some visionary ideas and then hires the people that can make it a reality.
im so old i can remember knowledgeable people who stated that a tiny electric car company had no chance to make any difference in the car industry.
When I realised I was too stupid to understand Maxwell's field equations, I went to read zoology instead. On that course of study I met my wife, and had two wonderful kids. Yay.
I 100% recommend stupid.
The more famous you get, the crazier stuff you say
Well, you're taking Elon's public statements as if they were the complete picture as for the reasons to go to Mars. The main reason to go to Mars AND settle it is because we CAN; not because it is the end goal. Venus is probably easier to terraform than Mars; but not in the short term; but we need to start somewhere, and Mars offers a lot of advantages, even if hospitability is not one of them. The advantages of Mars are that it is a place that IS inhabitable, with some effort, which has a lot of mineral resources ... People talk about mining asteroids, which is grossly unrealistic; but then neglect the fact that thousands of asteroids lie just below the surface of Mars, and have circles around them, just to make finding them easier. Then, lifting materials from Mars to space is orders of magnitude cheaper than from Earth, thanks to a much thinner atmosphere and about 1/3 the gravity. Space industry will begin at LEO, for sure, but LAO will grow much faster and become the densest industrial zone in human history in just a few decades. Nobody will even think of constructing spacecraft anywhere near Earth, once Mars mining and industry get going. One other thing that will be abundant on Mars, besides mining, refining, and space industry, will be robots. Precisely because of the poor habitability of Mars, it will take a high robot to human ratio to make the place survivable, and the size of the robotics market will ensure local manufacturing and maintenance. So, Mars will be like the Solar System's silicon valley, most expensive touristic destination, a top priority for all sorts of public funded research, and the new headquarters for most movie studios. So, it does not matter how habitable or how terraformable Mars is; what matters is that it is necessarily the epicenter of future space transport, no matter.
Your an excellent speaker Mr. Keating. Thanks for talking about such huge and fascinating subjects in a way thats easy to understand and also injecting nerd humor. Love listening to you
The odds of a cataclysmic event wiping out humanity on earth are infinitesimal compared to the odds of human beings failing to survive on Mars.
It being "escapist" is quite literally the point, re a planet-ender threat.
Of course, it's not a long-term solution, because the sun will cook both Earth and Mars in a 1 billion year timeframe. So the even more escapist solution (settle many different star systems with Earth life) is the even better and more necessary solution.
the interesting thing is that we are too focused on "planets" right now. what will be the game changer is avoiding gravity wells and living/producing everything in space.
The heat death of the universe will still get us eventually.
A journey of a million light years begins with one step.
We cant imagine 50,000 years into the future, let alone 1 million years into the future. Dude is talking as if 1 billion years is right around the corner. Dont worry lil bros humans will figure it out, they always have.
The best reason to expand to moon and mars is the same as the best reason for solar, wind, and other energy collection systems. For a backup during a failure of the main system. Then secondarily, the knock-on effects of developing these things. At the same time, people who don’t care for the main system, have options they can take advantage of to pursue remote living. Variety is the spice of life.
Surprisingly i enjoyed Dr.Keaton more as a guest than an interviewer. Great show👍
Do you think the Professor of Rock thought when he was as kid HE'D be a professor when he grew up?
Almost everything that can be said about the Nobel, can be said about an olympic gold medal though
Doesn't make it false though. In fact, that's precisely the point.
Idols are everywhere and the religious impulse, I've come to realize, holds many so-called "atheists" firmly within its grasp
I'm pretty sure prose means boring. Hemingway for example would write a paragraph on somebody putting a stamp on a letter. Of course it'a be more stirring than prose.
Almost everything we do is preceded by the imagination of doing so.
In a sense we dream of things we wish to do.
We might even put up posters of the goals we wish to reach.
It is a way to begin to bring our focus on to the things that are not easily done.
To have the dream of humans going to Mars must precede the actual event.
All dreams are unrealized until reached.
It is necessary to dream in order to reach the goal that we wish to get to.
Architecture is all about planning for certain dreams of an outcome someone wishes for.
Not every plan results in a building, not every dream leads to its immediate realization.
To 'not dream' is has certain predictable consequences that remind me of stagnation.
I would rather dream, as Elon does, even though I may never reach some goals, because by dreaming I make progress, I live my dream, I live my life with a purpose
Otherwise I just pay taxes and die.
The goal of putting Man on the moon advanced many other fields.
The same is happening with the idea of going to Mars.
Right now it motivates a huge number of people to learn about everything related to the goal and their careers being built upon it.
Many will be successful although having a goal does not guarantee anyone's success.
Without Imagination nothing can happen.
And, as Elon says, even if you try and fail, you will still have learned for the next attempt.
Achievement is rarely attained without some failures along the way.
I love how Keating, a Standard Theory proponent, does not have an arrogant streak like so many of his contemporaries. I have no idea if he is open to alternate theories, but at least he doesn't talk down to people who are interested in exploring alternatives.
Brain being interviewed is so Carl Sagan. Good choice. On the Mars dealio... NeuraLink will make for 0 emotion/stress, docile productive spacefarers.
Going to Mars before establishing a footprint on the Moon is akin to trying to go to the Moon before Christopher Columbus arrived in the Americas. Mars is harder than most people realize.
Going to either is a waste of time and resources. Humans will never be a multi planetary species. Never.
People think they'll find aliens and the aliens will fix all the political logic puzzles that we refuse to fix for ourselves.
Never NEVER say what Elon is or isn't going to do. Elon do what Elon do.
Love your humor Dr Keating as a goofy nerd it strikes like a tuning fork, witty quick and relevant.
He believes in Yahweh. That is goofy and not funny.
Fascinating.
@@JulianPatrickBronteGlenn not as goofy as thep eople who unironically voted for a sen ile old folks home patient thats destroying the country over thebest presiden in modern history
"Launch a flash drive with all human knowledge into space"
That's an iPod upgrade of the golden record, nothing more.
Flash drives and iPods will both lose their data before too many years. Maybe a decade or two. That’s not much of a backup.
I just discovered this channel. I have been saying these exact things all of my life. /physicist/engineer who contributed to these same projects
My astronomy professor (the head of the department) actively discouraged students from pursuing a career in astronomy because it's the only science you cannot actually touch, or even get close to. All you could do it LOOK.
Even the very best telescopes looking at the very closest stars (except for the Sun) can't resolve any of the stars to anything more than an absolute point of light. A speck. All you get is the light, so we've figured out so many ways to analyze that light and make guesses about what it might mean. But there's no way to go there and check your work. You're only building on guesses from earlier observers. That's how we figured out that the Sun is actually a star, which nobody guessed before it was realized that it had the very same kind of light spectrum as the stars do. It MUST be the same. So now we have ONE star we can study closely so we can conjecture about the other stars based on their differences from the Sun.
No, become a physicist or a chemist or anything else when you can bring your work into a lab and actually touch it.
Well done to the pod/vidcast in bringing out Mr Keating’s good nature man.
Kudos
Goodness. I must have dozed off. All I heard was putdowns of everyone and everything that was not himself.
Why is this on Brian's channel and not Trigernometry? I'd be interested in the details of the negotiation that yielded this result...
So, going to mars is considered a baby step in the direction of deep space, we need to do this and we need to make the necessary mistakes, that will in turn improve our chances to exit the solar system, by building on our mistakes, its obviouosly the most natural path of progress.
We don't "need" to do anything of the sort. You just want to force the rest of us to pay for your sci-fi fantasies. No thanks. You want it? You pay for it.
@@chuckschillingvideos That cave of yours sound cozy, not!
@@chuckschillingvideos Are you against nuclear reactors too?
@@MrBashem No thinking person is against nuclear reactors.
4 mm it couldn’t be true. Just plants grass tree if you spread them will be at least several cm. Biggest biomass is planton in ocean
"It's not realistic" is a statement often made to stop oneself or others from doing something.
You don't maintain your vehicle, because they don't give you access to the software maintenance tools.
Also car designers do crazy, one-off, or unserviceable car part designs for NO GOOD REASON.
My hopes and prayers will stay focused on Elon. Whether he gets there or not does not seem to matter much to me. The trying, the learning is what counts for me. Humanity is trapped on a closed system that has a finite life span. Getting out of our gravity to learn to live and explore low earth orbit, to the moon, to the solar system - is the only real guarantee a future for humanity. We will learn, and far exceed what we know is possible today. Spin systems to simulate gravity, faster engines, better technologies, better energy generation - free fall and lack of atmosphere make many impossible things possible. We will never know unless somebody is trying. God speed Elon.
Elon is wasting resources on meaningless crap. He does not care about humanity. He only cares about Elon.
He has no intention of going to mars. But he wants the grants.
It's not his money.
He's grifting the system for U.S. government grants.@@HankD13
How does the Starblip keep out cosmic radiation? how does it cool the ship to make it liveable, where are the huge solar arrays..........In fantasy land Elon doesn't need to keep the crew alive, because they're never going. @@HankD13
@@HankD13 Nah none of the money he spends on his various endeavors is his own, wealthy people especially know it would be crazy to do that. Gov't money, investors & hype. Despite the vast vaperware throughout all these years he's still managed to convince enough people to make himself rich.
Humans are not the only animal that realizes we will die, we are just the only animal who cares about something we can not change.
Really good interview, Dr. Keating. I lean more to Planetary Science myself. What do your P.S. friends say when you advise Elon's not going? I think we are going, and the challenges are not technical so much as political. NASA strikes me as an institution that has sat and spun their wheels in LEO for too long to be excited about planetary exploration. They seem to want to kill any and all evidence that could be interpreted as signs of life. Any exploration they get involved with is just robotic probes, and even that, they outsource to MSSS and JPL. We're going, just not as soon as most of us would like.
Sending our meat bags out into space is the dumbest bullshit ever. Leave it to the AI robots of the future.
Do they have to put the icecream through a warmer, at the South Pole, to get the soft-serve?
It's the important things in life that count
This was my first exposure to Dr. Keating. It was mesmerizing, but I'm stumped by something he said at 43:15:
"Your dog doesn't know he's going to die. Your pet cat doesn't know she's going to die. Humans, the only species that know that our time is limited, that's what we know about. Now, where does that come from? That comes from the Bible."
Is he saying we learned that we die from the bible, or is he saying that we learned that animals don't know they're going to die from the bible? Or is he saying something else? It's so confusing.
PSA: deuterium is fine, but don't drink tritium or tritiated water. It's safe externally (the beta particles it emits dont penetrate skin) but not for internal use.
Elon explained a thousand times why he sees humans as multi planetary species.
I totally believe there is life out there, but very VERY rare. Technological life?... Is probably so rare that we are probably the only one to arise within this galaxy and the next 10 billion next to us.
🤣🤣RARE?! intelligent life is not RARE,life is not special,there's probably BILLIONS OR TRILLIONS of intelligent life out there most are for sure a lot more intelligent than any human who's ever existed. People like you are in denial of the vastness of a galaxy let alone the universe,GET YOUR HEAD OUT YOUR DREAMS.
Look at our world in a TEMPORAL sense. The earliest life started evolving between 4.2 and 4.5 billion years ago and we have about 2 thirds of a century of life existing on this world capable of interstellar radio communication.
I think LIFE ITSELF is VERY COMMON if you count microbes and viruses and fungus etc but that almost all life in the universe does NOT have the technological capability to be sending us radio signals. The people at SETI need to get their heads out of their @$$3$ with trying to do RADIO COMMUNICATION and try to come up with a DIFFERENT way of finding life. I think we have a universe full of plants and animals and protozoa and maybe on only 0.000000001 percent of those living worlds does a civilization (like ours) arise that has what we would consider advanced technology. Technology much more advanced than ours (fermi peradox) is EVEN MORE RARE.
Maybe true but the insane scale of the universe, way beyond our comprehension, means physical contact is impossible. 50 to 100 thousand years travel to the nearest star with 8 years to send and receive a message for starters!
@@geraldbutler5484 They might soon have a ship that can get to the nearest stars in only 13,000 years if what I heard is true. They made a rocket that goes 60 miles second but the problem is its a glorified bullet and they need to find a way to get that speed with a large space ship.
Cool. I’d still rather believe in the people who operate from a position of “why not?” rather than “it’s not possible with our tech today”
Btw this sounds snarky but it wasn’t meant to be. I love your content. I wish science communicators were less… conservative… in painting a picture of what is possible. The world needs that optimism today more than ever
I thoroughly enjoyed that. Brian suggests that people looking to go to the moon and mars etc, displays a level of unhappiness within themselves or their lives.
That may be true on some level since even the excitement of a voyage of discovery and thrill of taking a risky step into the unknown displays that NOT doing that is less preferred for some reason BUT, since we're aware of our planets ultimate ending and the plethora of ways our brief little civilization could end, isn't the act of leaving and exploring other worlds as possible new habitats and homes less about being unhappy in ones current setup here on earth and more an instinctual push to survive?
The problem with staying here on earth indefinitely is doing so will ultimately kill us at some point. We currently can't escape this planet and that makes our civilizations existence extremely vulnerable. Sure, we may never be able to escape some cataclysmic event that encompasses our entire solar system but certainly having the ability to escape a massive asteroid impact or global disaster that requires our absence from this planet for a decade or century etc... ya, it would be enough to give a person a strong drive to try and do something about it if they were in a position to do so.
So perhaps Elon might have to make the terrible choice of having to leave his children behind for a long time, but perhaps it's his parental drive that pushes him to do it, because he's aware of how extremely vulnerable being stuck in just one unprotected planet is. Perhaps I'm flattering him and his reasons are far more self driven.
We have to get off this rock.
This guy is either ignorant or lying. Musk has made it very clear many times that one of the main reasons he wants to get people to Mars is to ensure the continuation of the human species in case something happens to Earth.
I can see expeditions where humans rotate out like on the ISS but I don't think humans will ever be happy living there permanently.
It's an absolute pleasure watching Brian been interviewed.
except that he is extremely uninformed on what Musk thinks/says
As a youth, Keating was a member of the Catholic Church. He later became an atheist, and subsequently he became Jewish, describing himself as a 'practicing devout agnostic'. WIKI
Hi Brian, love your work and follow you a lot but you said something in this episode that struck me.
That Human are the only species that have knowledge of their own mortality/death
What about elephants that go to their graveyards to die and whales that beach themselves.
But I loved your words on the confusion many people have over knowledge and wisdom, that will stick with me for a long time
Yeah even pet cats will often leave the house & find somewhere quiet to die. They know its coming. It's fascinating as it is sad.
Animals have to be aware of their own mortality. It's hardwired into their genetic makeup in order to survive
Who else saw the thumbnail and thought it was another Starfield video? 😂
I agree with Dr Brian that curiosity is extremely important. Sadly I myself along with many other people are trying so hard to just survive, it leaves no appreciable amount of time to spend on things that interests us. Not to mention my terrible childhood and parents who were not exactly inspiring me to be curious in the natural world.
As a society we really need to take a good look at how the pressures of daily life just sucks out any curiosity some people might have. That along with making sure parents are well trained in how to raise children.
Sadly humanity and civilization are build on injustices.
From our animal instinct we inherited a need for hierarchies, like in a wolf pack, or Peterson's lobster, and we are not all born equals, so...
To the most grandiose, advanced and refined human realization, some people need to do the ground work if you want to build pyramids, high towers, also who will wash the dishes and clean the toilets, in these nice restaurants and hotels, if there is no inequality?
That said we are all different, you could find curious, high IQ people coming from modest families, and terrible people born with the proverbial silver spoon in their mouth, you can find nice, good people who are not great brains, and evil people that are very smart...
Of course most of our destiny is already decided at birth, at least that's my conclusion, despite my belief in free will!
Most striking is the initial 2 minutes. This guy understood the initial question, acknowledged it's important. Yet he COMPLETELY IGNORED IT. He didn't answer it because he was there to talk, talk, talk - to listen to his own voice. His posture also made him look cocky.
14:57 4mm seems low. If I'm not mistaken, just the estimated world oil reserves, spread evenly over the earth, would be about 4mm thick. And presumably not all dead vegetation ended up as oil. Does the 4mm figure include things like limestone that came from the shells of sea creatures?
Yeah, I quit watching this BS after that.
The guy claims that its cumulatively 4mm while the current soil and biomass is more than that. That includes all sediments on the bottom of the ocean and thats just current. He said its cumulatively over the "ever". He is mitomaniac and bulshitter.
I came here to say the same. All life on earth ever totaling only 4mm is complete nonsense. I have no idea how he could think that.
I think it is just the current biomass. Quick calc (all just VERY rough): 1 human 10m^2 = all humans 100.000km^2, humans around 0.01% current biomass -> 1.000.000.000km^2. so could be just current biomass.
I couldnt imagine Keating beeing that far off, but all biomass ever or all current biomass is an easily made mistake for fun facts.
How the hell are we EVER going to have a future similar to STAR TREK where galactic exploration happens with people traveling hundreds or even thousands of light YEARS from Earth when getting to a world that is (at its closest as that is how it would be timed to save resources) TWO AND A HALF LIGHT MINUTES away? Hell, we have not sent anyone to the moon in over half a century and that is one point two light seconds away.
Elon actually recognises that it is possible he will not see Mars colonised in his lifetimexand he might not see Mars at all. But this seems to me to even more creditable. To invest and strive in a multi generatiobal project seems to me to be a commitment that few would make. Im reminded of the struggling artist who provably kniw their efforts will not be recognised until they are dead. Tgey donit because it us meaningful to them. And tgats enough!
We should go to mars because it's hard. There is no other reason.
Listening to his comments about traveling to Mars reveals the problem of asking scientists questions of engineering. He made so many assumptions that it’s clear he hasn’t actually studied Elon‘s plan. He said you would go to Mars with only three or four people for years? No man there will be fleets of ships all going at once. There will be lots of people to talk to. Each ship will hold at least 10 people and Elon claims up to 100 with multiple ships going during each transfer window. Next, he said there will be no return trip. Again, not true. Elon has made it very clear. He wants the rocket back. Ships will be returning back to earth every two years so hop on whichever one you feel like. Again, scientists, please leave engineering to engineers.
I think maybe Elon should leave engineering to the engineers too.
@@ailblentynShhh. Take your meds
@@williamh.gatesiii8183 It’s not going to happen. It’s unrealistic. Musk is not a working enginer. He’s a hype man.
@@ailblentynhe is doing that. That's how he got his rockets to work when everyone in media was clowning on him. He clearly knows how to manage his human resources. Your comment is dumb, because said nothing relevant to the comment and tried to take an empty shot at Elon because you don't like him; because other people don't like him.
Assuming SpaceX is successful, most starships which land on Mars will never return.
It makes no sense to return the Starships as they are more valuable on Mars as pressure vessels. Secondly, there will never be enough energy to refuel them.
One of the greatest things about capitalism is that we can all focus our own resources on what we think is best. For any one person to claim that what other people are doing with their own resources is a misallocation is a complete denial of that. May the best ideas win!
It's not so much about escape, as about having a backup. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.
Always have a backup, plus if shit hits the fan on earth, the colony is safe from nukes. And let's be real, the threat of annihilation reared it's ugly head in 1945, and it will never go away.
@@paulmichaelfreedman8334 I'm more afraid of the WHO than of nuclear war.
I think he was speaking about it in terms of feasibility in the near future. A lot of things coming out of Musk is definitely just fantasy.
@@vogue43 Ed Zacary
@@the_KurganI'm not.
Earth is the center of our universe. Let's celebrate.
Brian is a rockstar
Thank you very much,
In the 60’s, we were all afraid of nuclear annihilation. It seems, to me, that in this age, more people fear an asteroid impact ELE.
We can't even get it right on Earth!
Feels irresponsible to spend resources and effort on repeating it elsewhere instead of focusing on our own planet. People with Mars fantasies have been watching WAY too much Hollywood!
Elon seems to be getting it pretty damn right so far
Shut up 🤣 if you think we all need to stay focused on one problem at a time, you're dreaming.
Earth is going to die no matter what we do. All we can do is try to slow it. That is all. Focusing only on Earth is a literal death sentence to our species.
@@RandomPickles That's life 🤷♀️
@@Anne_Onymous you're an idiot.
Instead of going to mars incase there is a nuclear war on earth, why don't we just NOT HAVE a nuclear war on earth?
This was a great discussion (and I'm only 1 hour in)! "honest conversations with fascinating people" - indeed. This one definitely lives up to that, as usual with the Triggernometry guys!
This conversation regarding going to Mars is a microcosm of the larger conversation that every culture of high potential will face in its long evolution; 'To go or to stay'. The answer to this question will determine the nature of a species and its long-term relationship and occupancy in this universe. The circumstantial reasons to go or to stay will be varied but the answer to this question will ultimately define the character of any developing culture. Also, make no mistake, if humankind can't settle on Mars, it can't settle in any more distant habitat.
We try, we fail (sort of), we try again; progress is not an end in itself. Its as much about the going as it is about the being there, wherever/whatever the 'there' is.
Why we can't inhabit ocean instead of Mars? Because ocean is still the same planet we live on, with all the same risks. Did you even process the argument?
I think Elon will accomplish with the best engineers he has access to, of sending man to Mars. I believe his time frame doesn't make sense for this. But I believe in his lifetime, it will happen and I think Elon would be happy with that just hearing it happened before he passes away. That to me is progress that we need to make in order for the really difficult stuff to happen, happens. One person dedicating their life to making something great happen. Even though it's a small step, it's a great one that will change the course of direction for man. After man goes to Mars for the first time, I believe we won't go back again. Similar to the Moon, it'll get abandoned. Maybe some day we'll go back again, most likely robots and machines will always go to Mars. But I highly doubt man will ever colonize Mars.
Exactly. We won't settle there this century, but people will surely have walked there in Musk's lifetime. According to his autobiography, his ultimate goal is to personally set foot on Mars before he dies, even if it ends with him dying on Mars.
It would surely be an extraordinary achievement to be the first human to die on another planet.
If anyone has the resources, talented staff and drivee behind them to achieve that goal then surely it's Elon Musk.
why go to Mars? in a hundred or 2 years it will be far cheaper. fix Earth.
@@frjoethesecond
There is a much higher chance of Musk dying in prison than dying on Mars. Why? You figure it out.
I don´t think Elon will be particularly happy about someone else getting to Mars. He wants to get there himself. He is running away from something, the first step was leaving the school where he was bullied, the second step was leaving his abysmal native country and the third step will be leaving his home planet. He wants to get to a place where he can build everything from the start and where he will be the ruler, the dictator of a utopian society.
@@frjoethesecond I can't wait for Elon and his worshipers to go to Mars...and not come back to Earth. 🤣
Whatever your individual opinions on Mars itself are, humanity has the technology - and thus the DUTY - to ensure that Life outlives whatever catastrophe our very dangerous universe can throw at Earth. Life must exist elsewhere, to stand a chance at long-term survival. The worry is that our window of opportunity to seek the other worlds will not stay open for long. Human civilisation is NOT necessarily resilient. We're prone to incredible violence against each other, of course, but we're also prone to terrible ideas like depopulation and childlessness.
Childlessness is a great worry. Population collapse could pull us back into something close to the stone age.
absolutely fantastic Sir.. beautifully expressed and made easy to understand these big conversations 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
I dunno. The egotism gets old pretty fast.
No one would know more about alien life than the Captain of the USS Nostromo @30:07
Unless we figure out a way to distill the best of humanity before spreading off Earth, we should allow our flame to burn out here.
This guy looks like Ben Shapiro's bigger tougher older brother 😂
If only Elon was 1/10 as smart as Brian ….
"...to not know it is cancelling yourself..."
Oh how much I like that!
Good one fellas!
Neil Degrasse Tyson also calls himself a "Cosmologist",.... but he's just another over specialized academic enslaved by the previous paradigm
I have no faith in his comment that all life that has existed would only create a 4mm layer. Things like oil deposits would indicate otherwise. Bacteria though tiny, turn over pretty quickly.
No offense Brian, but others said similar things about some of his other feats. For someone such as Elon who really advances us in the science sector. You should be more supportive of him. I really hate it that you said this.
"Going to Asia is an escapist fantasy" -- early Hominin pundit.
Says the guy who invites Weinstein and Loeb to pontificate on how we’re being visited by aliens. 🙄
Because that is a reality.
Avi is hypothesizing on some extraterrestrial space junk but none of them are saying that, at least publicly.
I'm not saying we are being visited. I don't really know. But are you here saying it's IMPOSSIBLE that we could be visited?
When is a good timeline in your head for the possibility of other life finding us?
Exactly. What a joke.
@@bigcauc7530 After these recent UFO hearings, I am now taking the topic seriously. I’m still waiting to see some evidence, and I’m curious what comes next, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. I think it is silly for people to hand wave away any internet, just because it seems “far out.”
With the James Webb telescope findings, we are very close to detecting life another planet. I would not be surprised if we had concrete proof of extraterrestrial life within the next 50 years.
16:41 paraphrasing: "it's not a picnic to travel to another planet and not go crazy there" good point, but there are certain types of people who could and would handle such a mission. just because "the majority" of people are much too fragile to be isolated in that way for years, does not mean that it can't be done. surely it must be possible to select for people who are or can be described as "lone wolves" or simply loners, to select these people and send up there in order to maximize a successful outcome.
Haters: musk will never get EVs to be profitable, it’s just not realistic. Haters: Musk will never get a private space company to work, land rockets, impossible, it’s just not realistic. Haters: Musk is never going to go to Mars it’s just not… wait….
Musk has failed to deliver on nearly every single one of his promises. Hyperloop never went anywhere, self-driving cars are nowhere near fully autonomous, robotaxis. Elon is the king of making empty ambitious promises. The worst of it all: He himself has done NOTHING.
I'm shattered that Elon isn't going to Mars.
If you are waiting to see Elon on Mars, you will be long gone before that happens. It will, probably, never happen.
I think Brian's take is not just pessimistic, but it fails to acknowledge the value of inspiration. All of the difficulties he outlines are real, including some he doesn't even mention. And yes, ancient explorers didn't have to worry about life support or finding food. But they also explored and reached out with far more struggle, almost zero tech, and willing to lose people on a far greater scale. Brian's take seems to encourage not striving, not reaching for the stars, not expanding our domain. I don't see Elon dismissing the difficulties, I see him taking them head on. Our ancestors built the industry of this country with a can-do, get it done attitude. A little more of that please.
“Elon is NOT Going to Mars” - Beware Clarke's 2nd law...
BTW: came here from Sabine Hossenfelder. And do enjoy it.
Elon is going to build a Hyperloop to Mars.
Brian Keating: Me, I, name-drop, me, I, namedrop, jibber, jabber. Repeat ad nauseum.
Like humanity has earned the moral goods to just screw over this vacuum and then leave to go screw over another one. How about we explore humility as intellectual beings here first?