Severe Weather Update: Strong Severe Storms Forecast for New South Wales and Queensland Next Week

[@tonipeterson954]

usually my knees tell me when rain is coming 😂 ... gotta say I am pretty impressed with Josh's accuracy 👍

[@cyclonesoz]

Thanks 👍 hope your knee feels better mate

[@BobSmith-ew5oi]

Hi Josh,
Better late then never as been tied up with work. Very strange weather in NQ.Cruise liner diverted from Cooktown to Cairns as 110km peak gusts out from Cooktown and base around 80k. Very rare and unexplainable for this time of year. While can get strong winds if big enough high cell down south the current high no wear near powerful enough to cause that amount of wind and the isobars are scattered wide in top part of Australia. The only other option is some tropical disturbance building up in coral sea although months early for any monsoonal activity. But Willis Island radar has what appears to be a well defined circulation although not showing on chart yet the wind is certainly intense for this time of year. As the highs break down and drift further south the on shore flow should diminish in our traditionally dry build up to the wet with our first storms around November and no real rain till after new year but as shown last wet all need is one intense cyclone that stalls to trigger a hundred year rain event. Looks like the formation of a rudimentary off shore disturbance trough that just starting to show with a slight dip in the isobars but nothing certain yet. The northern hemisphere monsoon is beginning its southward retreat but still strong cross equatorial flow and until it breaks down only be limited storm activity except along the ever more frequent troughs that form off the west oz coast with associated heat low and track east with the creation of powerful storms unfortunately that we miss out in Cairns as to far north for a trough to stay strong. Interesting times ahead love the wet season but as a former storm chaser the desert areas outshine the coast for powerful storms as already got the heat and instability and just a whiff of moisture all need for a supercell with100mm plus in hour or so.Cairns not have that uplift trigger as generally just humid but not get immediate local ones and all big storms come off the tableland mountains with altitude different microclimate and west coast troughs can trigger good storms up top and have even seen a tornado outside Malanda but most times no steering winds to push good storms over range to coast.Feb march most exciting with either x cyclone or tropical disturbance inland so got moisture an uplift and best time for lightning shows but envy the folks down south that get three times the amount of storms we get many also severe something rarely see here or desert areas that get five times as many ubeut storms then we do .Best one ever see in Paraburdoo half hour of continuous bolts lasting over second each hitting this one hill out of town for a special display of lightning never seen again. Reckon the five cent piece biggest hail seen up here no danger to be out in and a rare novelty to see any as only one in a hundred coastal storms have any size hail and can be measured on one hand amount of hail storms had in last 100 years. In my sixties and remember a newspaper story about hail at Smithfield which about 5k from cairns city but never see any other hail stories. Only supercell remember on tableland 3am in morning could see horse in stable clear as day. It strong enough to get over range and bought down a TAA jet into a cane field north of the airport possible by a strong microburst but a long time ago and never seen the accident report on that crash but certainly be weather related as that one wild storm. Gave a direct strike to farmhouse before go to coast so certainly one to remember which puts my near lightning strikes to 3.If the air crackles round you like high voltage arc before an almighty clap of thunder less then ten feet away from the bolt. One experience walking to work. Shift foreman hiding in shed looking at crazy Bob walking up hill in storm and in fact two close strikes on way up hill less then 20 metres away but not worried as many tall things higher then me but had flat area to walk over and do so and just as put key in door the air crackles near me and always wondered if a few second slower in walk it may of not been a near miss .Better call it quits could ramble on about weather stuff for hours but got to sleep after night shift. Cheers for now Bob

[@onebeingeverybody]

Ulladulla both U sound like butter or udder. Thanks for the update mate

[@adzoutnabout8666]

Pronounced Allah-Dhullah

[@JackBloch-d5w]

Hi Josh, Perth is expecting to get a 28°C day on Friday, how long do you think the nice heat will last?

[@vickypreece4509]

Wow you talk fast

[@IOSALive]

CyclonesOZ, ur content makes me happy