Our base is U.S. will go into a recession by middle of 2024: Societe Generale's Subadra Rajappa
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 ก.ย. 2023
- Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss latest Treasury yield trajectory, the impact of higher rates on markets, where yields are headed, and more. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: cnb.cx/2NGeIvi
» Subscribe to CNBC TV: cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBCtelevision
» Subscribe to CNBC: cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBC
Turn to CNBC TV for the latest stock market news and analysis. From market futures to live price updates CNBC is the leader in business news worldwide.
Connect with CNBC News Online
Get the latest news: www.cnbc.com/
Follow CNBC on LinkedIn: cnb.cx/LinkedInCNBC
Follow CNBC News on Facebook: cnb.cx/LikeCNBC
Follow CNBC News on Twitter: cnb.cx/FollowCNBC
Follow CNBC News on Instagram: cnb.cx/InstagramCNBC
www.cnbc.com/select/best-cred...
#CNBC
#CNBCTV
Great video, The first $100,000 invested was amazing. But when you hit $300,000 it’s like smashing the glass ceiling! I cried.
I completely agree with you! My first 100k took a long time and wasn't that special to be honest with you. Once I hit 300K that is the game changer in my opinion. At this point my money is basically making me a pretty good yearly salary. When I go to sleep at night I know my money is making decent money with the help of my FA!!
Nice. People often underestimate financial advisors' importance. Over 50 years of data reveal that those who work with advisors typically earn more than those who go it alone. I've been fortunate to work with one for 13 years, resulting in a $1 million portfolio, largely from early investments in AI and other growth stocks.
I've been considering but haven't been proactive. Can you recommend your advisor? Could really use some assistance...
"Angela Lynn Schilling" is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment...!!
I looked up her name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her. Thanks for the tip..!!
The dilemma of "higher interest rate leads to expensive borrowing leads to slow economic growth" and vice versa makes it difficult to manoeuvre economic parameters. Yet the stock market isn't showing any sign of slowdown caused by a recession outlook. Investing now instead of saving would make thousands of dollars in ROI if done right.
I don't agree it is a real dilemma. These parameters are tweakable can be effectively done to preserve economy while growing the economy. I do agree, though, that the market is rising hell. Heck, I've grown more than 70k this earnings call season.
That's an impressive growth there. I put all my eggs in one basket-- META-- and I really benefitted. My FA has advised we diversify going forward. Talking about tweaking the parameters, some countries have low inflation but are still economically prosperous.
In recent times it's mainly Asian countries maintaining that dual prosperity. Anyway, any chance you could recommend who you financial advisor is? Might need some help this year.
Yes, yes, Taiwan is a prime example. Well, I suggest sticking with one who understands your short and long term goals. I'll personally recommend Sharon Louise Count because I work with her, but I'm sure there are other good ones, too. You could check her website out.
Thank you for this recommendation. I'll check her out.Congrats, too, on your newfound META wealth. 😄
What are the best strategies to protect my portfolio from a crash? I've heard that the market crash will devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my $200k portfolio.
Amidst recession, investors need to understand where and how to allocate funds to hedge against downturns and still make profits. if you can't navigate the market you should consult with an expert advisor
The US-Stock Market had been on it’s longest bull-run in history, so the mass hysteria and panic is relatable considering we’re not accustomed to such troubled markets, but there are avenues lurking around if you know where to look I’ve netted over $450k in the past 10months.
Having an investment advisor is the best way to go about the stock market right now. I was going solo, but it wasn't working. I’ve been in touch with an advisor for a while now, and just last year, I made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
One of my goals is to employ the service of one this year. I've seen some off LinkedIn but wasn't able to get a response. Could you recommend who it is you work with?
Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
After a rally that defied high interest rates and recession calls, stock valuations are now edging toward levels seen before some of the greatest market meltdowns in history - by one measure at least.I've seen folks amass up to $1m amid crisis, and even pull it off easily in a favorable economy. Unequivocally, the bubble/collapse is getting somebody somewhere rich
I do not disagree, there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or markt condition, but such execution are usuallv carried out by investment experts or advisors with experience since the 08' crash
The issue is most people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence get burnt, no offense. In general, invt-advisors are ideal reps for investing jobs, and at firsthand encounter, since Jan.2020, amidst covid outbreak, my portfolio has yielded nearly 300%, summing up to 7-figure as of today.
this is huge! think you can point me towards the direction of your advisor? been looking at advisory management myself.. seeking ways to invest and make more money with the uncertainty in the economy
I've shuffled through a few advisors in the past, but settled with 'Nicole Desiree Simon' her service is exemplary. I'd suggest you research her further on your browser, sure you'll find her basic info.
Thank you for this tip. it was easy to find your mentor. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé
Crazy how all the investors suddenly dont want to hear or accept that this is "The market" now. No more bidding wars,no more 30K-80K over asking,No more waived home inspections. I will enjoy every bit of their suffering when we put in that super lowball offer and when they ask why so low, "Well this is the current market🤷♂️"
Not in boston sadly 😢
Well the other person is not the enemy. But housing is surely unaffordable, what we need is more development that will make life better for all of us
@@darknights5020 yeah it's been painful seeing 100K+ increases in 1yr. This is madness, how does everybody have so much money to afford a 1m+ home?
lol this will not apply to any premium markets with top public school systems. as soon as mortgage rates fall, there will be another buying frenzy in good markets and prices will shoot up. New buyers will be the ones accepting that 5% mortgage is the best they might get, and current owners will still be sitting on 3% without much incentive to sell.
Why so angry? Prices go up and down. Just put your money where your mouth is.
We have been in a recession since last year. We prevent the panic by only admitting later so we give the public we are recovering sooner
Nope it’s happening next year mid April just remember what I’m saying
@@abolisherwhy is that? Pivot?
We are in a rolling recession. In a normal recession everyone gets slammed at the same time. Rolling recessions can be hidden in plain sight by the national/macro economics. Different regions/segments/markets have been rolled over in separate waves over the last two years. The massive government deficit spending, and housing price increases are masking the fact we are in a rolling recession by artificially boosting GDP and household net worth.
Speak for yourself 🤓🖕
👍👍👍 good interview
Why don’t they just agree that we are in a recession since last year
They're so dumb it's unbelievably funny..😂
Because we're not.
Consumer spending delay recession by credit card debt. I expect recession will hit in 2024.
The Rich alway get Richer! Increases in pay is always lower than what is needed for basic needs ! If a increase in pay is given inflation will be rasied just above it !
They are using a technical definition of recession but the economy is not in bad shape if unemployment is low and consumer spending is at normal rates. No mass layoffs in the horizon. If CEO star to listen to this crap they will end up triggering a recession by laying off people.
Love when you have smart guest, thanks for your insight ma’am
because she said what you want to hear?
No because she's smart
4:19 - “the economy is so strong”. I’m curious. Does anyone agree with this statement?
In the sense that the 550 basis point increase has not deterred the average consumer from doing what they normally do which is spend. The Covid subsidies and savings might be running out though.
@@ChapelonTheHill my guess is they don’t have a choice. It’s in “their” best interest to keep everyone invested in a system they know can’t last.
I interviewed 3 people 2 weeks ago my channel - it's tiny - about inflation and the economy. Do chekc it out if you're willing to help out. They were cautiously optimistic in my opinion. The last week has almost certainly dropped overall sentiment so I would love to have the ability to interview them again. The Fed doesn't have inflation under control and OPEC+ supply constraints are only making it worse. Higher for longer only pushes us closer to something breaking. At least we've averted a government shutdown.....
@@qbtc You make a good point about consumption staying relatively underterred despite the more than 500 basis point hike since March '22. I think the U.S. consumer will burn through subsidies and savings - if they haven't already - and then just rack up credit card debt. Considering that collective U.S. credit card debt surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in early August, they are probably already doing exactly that.
If insane spending on credit is "strong"
..
According to some experts, the United States and other regions of Europe may have a recession in 2023. Because China and emerging countries frequently grow faster than more developed economies, a global recession, which is defined as a decline in annual global per capita GDP, is more uncommon. Fundamentally, if economic growth lags behind population growth, the global economy is said to be in a recession.
My primary issue right now is how to increase revenue during these tough times. I can't afford to see my savings disappear into thin air.
Very true! Due to my financial advisor's discovery of defensive tactics that make portfolios less susceptible to market downturns, I was able to increase my investment from $430K to over a million dollars throughout this bear market.
@@danieljackson87 How can I get in touch with your adviser? because I'm looking for a more successful way to invest my savings?
You can employ another adviser, but Julie Anne Hoover is my one who provides guidance. She has years of knowledge in the financial markets, and her approach has worked for me in the past, leading to my success. She offers points of entrance and exit for the securities I prioritize.
I work in the largest port in U.S. we are dead ass slow.
Is that because of supply or demand?
@midhuleshvellanki3377 Demand, the ships aren't coming.
@@MYLIFE22311 If demand was low then prices would be falling. We see the exact opposite of that. Prices are increasing while nothing is coming in means we are currently supply side limited
Me too, also our exports are dead. I work for cars shipment I visibility see the difference, we hardly sell any cars abroad anymore
I genuinely mean it when I express my stress and concern regarding the market crash and high inflation, particularly in relation to my retirement. I have been experiencing losses for quite some time, and while some may argue that crises can present opportunities, I am feeling overwhelmed. However, I understand that investing is a long-term endeavor, and it is crucial to maintain focus on the bigger picture and the long run.
onsidering that I am only three years away from retirement, it becomes challenging for me to solely concentrate on the long-term perspective. Despite having invested in reputable companies and having a significant amount of funds allocated, my profits have been stagnant. This situation raises the question: Does the current recession and unstable market offer any calculated risk opportunities for generating profits?
In a downturned market, numerous strategies exist that can potentially yield lucrative profits. However, executing such sophisticated trades requires the expertise of seasoned market professionals.
I have experienced significant losses, and I am holding on with the hope of recovering them. It is evident that I am in dire need of assistance. Could you please share the name of the investment adviser who guides you?
Absolutely! Within a span of less than a year, I witnessed remarkable progress after following the guidance of MRS MARISOL CORDOVA . Beginning with an initial investment of less than $100,000, I am now just $18,000 away from reaching a quarter million dollars
I copied her whole name and pasted it into my browser; her website appeared immediately, and her qualifications are excellent; thank you for sharing.
We already in one
Speak for yourself
Yield curve inverted in June, 2022. I forecast recession starting around April, 2024.
What are the signs to look for in the Market for a potential "downgrade" of our nations credit? Any pro traders out there that can answer this question? I got caught in a downward spiral on the last one we had and it would be nice to know if there are any signs that one is forthcoming in the near future. Cheers from Cabo San Lucas!
Not a pro trader, just a financial writer with a business background. I'd say that a downgrade could be precipitated by a greater degree of scrutiny by external nations on our growing deficit. I'm not sure there's a definitive signal or index to indicate that sentiment but it matters to U.S. creditworthiness.
Thanks Alex! @@Alex_Unorthodox
Government reigning in spending - dream on. Debt ceilings will be pushed back, not because they can, however because they have to.
Rather than attempting to predict future recessions and risking financial losses, a more effective strategy is to build a well-diversified portfolio that can withstand various market conditions. This approach has allowed some individuals to consistently generate substantial returns, averaging around 150K every quarter as reported by Bloomberg.
That’s crazy, I’m just doing everything wrong with my portfolio
I understand your concerns, my friend. I recommend exploring passive index fund investing and expanding your knowledge in this area. Personally, I experienced both successes and challenges when initially seeking a reliable passive income. To navigate this, I sought the guidance of an expert advisor, and by following their advice, I invested $30k in value stocks and digital assets. As a result, I've seen a significant increase of $200k in my portfolio, and I feel prepared for whatever lies ahead.
@@jessicasquire That's truly remarkable! I would greatly appreciate if you could share some information about your financial advisor. I'm also interested in making positive changes to my finances this year, so any insights would be highly valuable to me.
@@patrickbrussels4454 Portfolio diversification is crucial, and having an advisor to guide you in this process is essential. I work with *STEPHANIE KOPP MEEKS* as my advisor, and she is highly experienced and well-known in the financial markets. You can easily find more information about her through a quick search, and her expertise can greatly benefit your investment strategy.
@@jessicasquire I appreciate the tip you provided. When I searched for her, *STEPHANIE KOPP MEEKS* 's website appeared on the first page, and I thoroughly reviewed her resume, which was impressive. As a result, I reached out to her by sending a message, and now I eagerly await her response.
Becky interrupts every guest, so rude
Becky is the one asking plain questions… most guests are talking mumbo jumbo but dont make a point
I do the opposite of mainstream media. For the most part it has worked out for me. When the media says the market is red hot and nothing can stop it, I start taking profits. When they say a recession is coming, I start accumulating good assets.
They are already there... they revoked 17 offers from my college stating this
All these recession predictions start to lose effect after awhile...
It's always the case. They'll just keep moving their goal post when one doesn't happen until one inevitably does, and then they'll be like see we predicted that.
@@badpuppy3 Big facts! This reminds me of Michael Burry screaming market crash every single year. He will be right again at some point
@@badpuppy3speak for yourself 🤓🖕
1:34 WTF is he talking about? Higher interest rates don’t fuel inflation. They do exactly the opposite. Higher interest rates make borrowing costs higher which lowers the price of goods. In other words if I have to pay a higher interest rate on a loan that increases my monthly payment which lowers the amount of money I can borrow which ultimately lowers the price of that house or car that I can afford to buy.
Usually the rich suffer worst in depressions, I hope this one hurts them so much their great grandchildren are in debt when they come out of the womb.
Oh here we go again. First it was 2017, then 2019, then 2021, then it was 2022 and then it was the first half of 2023 --no I think it's gonna be the last half of 2023 ---then early 2024...now they say middle of 2024. When do you people just shut up?
Joe cant even talk properly. Nichole loves interrupting. What a panel
"Joe cant even talk properly. Nichole loves interrupting. What a panel"
a bunch of gd 🤡🤡🤡
With inflation running at a four-decade high, the Recession is now the ‘most likely outcome for the economy and I cannot imagine being a victim of circumstances. My portfolio suffered a big hit, holding it further won’t be any good. I've heard of people netting hundreds of thousands this red season. How can I ensure this?
Indeed, you are correct! Economic downturns offer numerous prospects for ordinary individuals to create wealth from the ground up. Nevertheless, seeking guidance from an investment planner might be necessary if you desire a more assertive return.
The uncertainties accompanying this present market is more reasons I have my daily investment decisions guided by a portfolio-coach seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time, both employing profit-oriented strategy and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downtrends, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis, it's quite impossible not to outperform. Netted over $800k in return on investment, since using a coach for about a year.
Renowned for her proficiency and expertise in the financial market, “Colleen Rose Mccaffery” my financial advisor, holds a broad understanding of portfolio diversification and is recognized as an authority in this domain.
The Fed does not 'buy' US Debt. The Fed Monetizes US Debt. See Argentina for details.
last few years the market thought 3% was threshold, now subadhra is saying 5%. what is truth god knows..........
Half of the treasury bonds expire in less than two years. A higher yield will be needed to entice investors to reinvest.
The Fed unloading "$100B a month" statement is not the whole story. That's only that last few months. Since the peak back in April 2022 to now, it has averaged $51B per month. Its half the rate she said. And if there is another banking hiccup, the Fed balance sheet can shoot up $1T in a single month and basically they will be right back to April 2022 ATH.
Buy as much 5% yields bonds as I can?
If those tax cuts are not extended US economy will be in a world of hurt
Too late for that
Recession right before elections... i dont think so lady
No you don’t think
Earlier, you said 2023 and now you pushed by a year. Useless analysts.
It is going to be a blood bath in 2024. Possibly another great depression.
Prepare for the market to crash until Q2 2026
These interviews are 6 months late lmao.
All speculation
Collapse is near !!!!!!
She is incoherent
........because Communism can be expensive .....!!!
Just ask Walmart
The economy is doing fine with thousands of jobs on their way from the infrastructure projects alone. And wars do boost business activity - the Ukraine war being on point. As for Israel’s war, that will soon fizzle - running out of goodwill.
We have been talking about a recession since 2020. Just stop it, there’s no recession coming. Every 304 out there is a model and a success entrepreneur.
Speak for yourself 🤓🖕
wrong