Betfair Trading Strategy - Laying the Favourite Horse Strategy
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 ก.ย. 2024
- Here I do a live test of my lay the 4th favourite betfair trading strategy to see how it goes in real time. I have been back testing this for a while, and you know me i like to keep it real and show exactly how it goes and how much I made.
Betfair trading strategy - Lay The Favourite
glad I found this channel, helping me avenge some of the losses I had as a newbie after I got ahead of myself thinking I’d found the holy grail laying horses
its easy done ive been there a few times thinking ive got it, after one day of great results i was for buying mansions lol
@@MakingRitchieRich yeah I like the focus on long term testing, defo starting to try laying the 4th fav. Over unders on football are very lucrative and generally low risk too.
you've just got a new subscribe and like - love the way you explained this - you may want to place the bet a few seconds AFTER the off to see if the 4th fav started off well or not (pbly only on races with more than 100K total staked) - I'm going to backtest this for sure. Can you explain how to set up the bot ? (I think i use the same software). Good Luck !!!
I don't believe that LTF can be a successful strategy. Not if used across the board on random races. For one thing, I have casually observed that favourites seem to win between once and three times in any group of three races although there is a lot of variance with this. With laying, the ruinous liability (for all but odds on runners) will require huge bankroll, not to mention massive cojones! It might be different if you have trading ladder software and betfair membership of circa £100 per month where you get updated odds every fraction of a second (I'm not sure if the streaming video is as fast but am guessing not as it's provided by an outside company. Unless you narrow down to a narrow speciality such as under 8 furlongs, or all weather courses you are, i think, unlikely to find a true strategy due to the many other variables. It is brave of you, and generous to share your efforts and I wish you good luck with it👍
Let me try to help you. What you are doing is the mathematics of the madhouse in my opinion. Now, were you to back the favorite to win just before the off then put in an in-play lay offer at the offer two points lower than the start odds you would have a much better chance of avoiding those huge liabilities. I.E. back at, say 3 before the off then place an in-play lay offer at 2 or 1.5 it would, in nearly every case be taken up. So, if the horse wins you win the odds less the liability. If it loses you lose your stake but gain the win on the lay side. You need a calculator available free from Oddsmonkey to work out the lay stake. It will also tell you what your potential winnings will be. The only time you lose is when the favorite never even threatens the leaders and the lay odds are not taken up. Much safer than chasing losses with hideous liability. it is even more profitable if you learn to read form or use a reliable tipster. Try it and see. Good luck.
That was just something I was testing out at the time to show people but I would gladly test this out for you, if you want to send me an email with the instructions I can set it up on my bot and test it
Great video but I prefer to be more simple.
1. Lay the horse at the back of the field
2. Let it run
3. Pick up winnings
On an original bank of £50 I now have £600 and make £100 a day profit...while I'm at work. I'm selective about my races and keep odds under £50. This is now my third week of doing this and I've taken 2 losses but gained it back 2 days later. Bank management is key. Wonder if anyone else has tried this strategy as well.
interestung ! So how do u manage your bankroll if u dont mind me asking ?
Is this still working for you? Do you have to watch the matches live?
What sort of races, type, runners, trip? At what point do the lay the back marker ? What results have you had in the months since you made the video?
Hi Ritch,
Did you really layed a horse at odds of 13 for £637.59? I just saw it at 27:17
That lay bet has like £7651 liability.
I looks like he did, but I don't think he is going to deposit that kind of funds into his account. If he has that kind of money, then he'll have to change his channel name to. Making Ritchie Richer! (lol).
For
@solution777 below. What sort of races, type, runners, trip? At what point do the lay the back marker ? What results have you had in the months since you made the video?
Try this in running cheap as chips
at the off lay any fav at 1.6 or lower to win race not to finish in first 3 a cheap lay at 1.1 or lower
then back fav to win race to cover one and half times your liability of the lay cost.
Then set and keep in play lay the fav at 1.15 to cover the win stake and lay liab
Example
Lay fav at 1.1 not to finish in first 3 for 100 liab = -10
back fav just at the off at 1.6 with 25 to win = -25
set and keep in play lay the win at 1.15 with 35 = 3.75
Its rules that makes a good trade over time.
Would like to see how you set this up with the bot an the recovery setting on the bot, maybe add 4thfav that has not finish 1st or 2nd in its last race.
Keep putting these videos up please .
I am currently testing this, but setting the odds to a maximum of 5 (4/1), and keeping it in play. Recovery is a lot kinder.
be alot fewer to get on at those odds, let me know your results thou
nice strategy, thanks a lot ! Do you use a sofware to backtest your strategies ? If yes... wich one ?
after I started using the drone in trading, it improved dramatically. Do you think that drone nowadays is indispensable? I have videos on my channel. hugs from Brazil
Are you still using this strategy?
A trap I fell into and I don't think I'm the only one, was to lay the first unplaced horse going down the card. These seem to win more often than they lose. The reason being is the horses ahead of him aren't good enough. They don't tick enough boxes. A horse can have 90% what it takes but that's not enough and that's when some duffer wins and most the time it's the first unplaced down the card.
Hi Ritch, Great video again, where is your bot from?
Bf bot manager
Lay every fave in uk 🇬🇧 horse 🐎 racing - every time sun shine because because it’s bent and very corrupt
lol must test this
Imagine when you scale up! 😬😳
Where is this testing software from?
What you are doing here is effectively the martingale strategy and let me just tell you from the off that this will sting when it fails, it’s inevitable. This has been attempted on casinos, gambling, and trading, it just does not work.
I'll have to have a look at that and see what it is
Ok had a wee look at that, from what I can see that's on roulette etc where its 50/50 type of chances. With this strategy its a higher strike rate off 92% so you will never go on that long lose streak, the max that this has lost in my back testing and current testing its only ever lost twice in a row. But off course anything can happen and i have a max loss setup so it will only go as far as im comfortable losing before I take the loss.
Martingale works if you have a large bankroll to keep doubling until the win comes… because that win WILL come wether it’s after 5 losses or 50.
You will win a lot for a while and you’ll get braver and a bit greedier… then it will inevitably hit you HARD eventually if you push your luck too far.
You will get so used to the small streaks, that you will forget that the possibility of a long losing streak is not only very real, but getting closer and closer with every bet.
Then when it gets you…. you’ll lose your entire bankroll for the sake of an initial small bet.
Bottom line. It’s a strategy that has won me a hell of a lot of money on roulette tables. But I know the dangers and when to stop.
Luckily I took all of my hard lessons and martingale learning curves with a very small bankroll of £100 and an initial bet of 10p! And yes I won a million times but ended up losing the whole pot for 10p.
Now I use much higher amounts for way less time. I stick to strict rules I’ve set for myself, and never let myself get excited and tempted to stray from the plan. I also usually wait for three or four times in a row before I start betting against it… it’s a lot quicker than betting on the first for a smaller stake.
I’m in profit by thousands, and now the money I use to continue on is just a small part of my winnings. When I eventually get bit again, I will be disappointed, but the money I’m using isn’t really mine and I’ve already made a lot more than my stake.
Hope all is well Ritchie?
How are the bots getting on?
Cheers :)
bots are doing great ill try and get an update video going soon, alot of people have been asking, just been focused on the amazon stuff
What Bot do you use ? Tried this today 1st one a loser :( managed to make it back slowly though, too scared to use the quicker recovery atm.
How did you end up today? I use bf bot manager
£32 up 😁
Ask Dman nearly done me though. I did manage luckily to get out otherwise it would only be about £10 as that was my final trade of the day. He came from the back of the field to win 🙄
@@andybainton3033 aww brilliant long may that continue
@@andybainton3033 Sometimes if im in enough profit and theres a few races left I just bow out, its sods law you will get a loss at the end of the day
Variance will eventually bite. If you were 78 down after a third loser, what next.
Well I back tested from January last year and it has only ever lost twice in a row. But it can happen yes, so it's either have the bank roll to cover that or take your loss and hope overall that your still in profit.
Hi mate, are you still running this strategy? I’m on day 3 following this and I’m about £30 down
No I've moved on from that now, are you manually trading?
@@MakingRitchieRich did you not find it profitable? Currently manually trading yes, going to get a week free trial of the automation software when I have a spare week
What software you using for the bot?
Bf bot manager
Hi Richie
Been following your videos
Like the idea of automation
Would it be possible to send me the settings for lay the favourite please.
send me an email and i can help you get sorted, makingritchierich@hotmail.com
Where do i get the bot ?
Just email me
Please stop chasing losses
What made you choose this strategy?
it was after testing other strategies similar i decided to try it on lay the 4th, it had decent odds but more importantly the losses where low and the consecutive losses in testing was only 2 in a row.
I would maybe look to add or incorporate what is drifting in the market pre race
I lay a lot and incorporate what’s drifting in the market and what position that particular runner is going to be in the field in terms of running style , ideally mid to held up of the pace, then just look for a short market drift in play and trade out
And I would completely cut out the recovery plan coz your have one day when that completely blows your bank, trust me we’ve all been there and seen it all after 10 years of trading 👍🏻
@@bigfoottrades5084 Pick a year, pick a simple strategy. The industry loss can be several hundred points, betfair can be a much smaller loss, say 60/70 points. But you would still get whacked if were to lay. I think a lay strategy is a hard thing to find, individual race lay selection seems to be the only way. I will keep looking for many a year yet😀
No tiene subtítulos 😔
sorry i will try to get these added
Sorry mate not a clue what u are yanking about
2 losses in a row, and your next ''risk'' is 100x your first.....
E.G £10 @ 11.00 = £100 liability. Loses - Lost £100
Next race
£100 @ 11.00 = £1,000 liability. Loses. - Lost £1,100 (cumitively)
Next race
£1,000 @11.00 = £10,000 liability....
You're better off martingayle-ing a favourite between 2 and 3 if you want to just martingayle.
And Martingayle is just gambling. You will lose your roll doing this.
its all risk, its just trying to find ways to minimise it as much as possible
Hi Richie
Thanks email sent