Most S&P 500 Elliott Wave Counts are Wrong
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 21 ก.ย. 2024
- S&P 500 Elliott Wave analysis as of November 6th, 2023. After editing this video I found a few exclusions I failed to mention. Firstly, I incorrectly called the triangle after 1929 a contracting triangle. It is a barrier triangle, it doesn't change the count, it's just semantics. Secondly, I failed to mention that the Elliott Wave rules are idealistic. Sometimes rules break in reality. The whole point is to determine probability, if the only explanation is the minor deviation of a rule, then so be it. Case in point, I am fully aware that the 5th wave of an expanding diagonal down from the January 2022 high is too short. It is minorly short and this is real life. All other rules are met and and we have the recipe for a motive wave. To automatically assume that the move is a triple zigzag that does not meet the intent of the market is short sighted. My discord is for serious members only, who seriously want to learn how to count and trade crypto currencies the right way. If you'd like to take on that challenge, check us out on wavecounts.com
Concepts in my videos are based upon Elliott Wave Principle: A Key to Market Behavior by A. J. Frost and Robert Prechter amzn.to/3Ni3V7N
I use Trading View to create my charts. www.tradingvie...
Outstanding... I really learned from You about the triple correction. Other EW guys who are obviously bullish biased, have said both the moves from the recent high and ATH are triples... just didn't make sense to me. This helped a lot, Thanks
Glad it helped. Both triples: legal…yes. Probable? Press F for doubt. My technique, keep it simple. If it’s 5 waves, then it’s five until proven otherwise. Break the high and I’ll be a believer. Until then, I wouldn’t buy this market with someone else’s money, let alone mine.
I thank you for that in depth analysis....been doing EW for awhile.....and you taught me a ton!! Systematic
Glad to help!
I really enjoy your Elliot wave analysis on the sp500 and Nasdaq. I hope you continue to keep producing some amazing content!
More to come!
@@ChartWizardTrading Big 3 10 years, big 5 over 70 years - that does not fit! The Great Depression was a big 2, not a big 4!
Nice gup - good learning tool for charting from scratch :) thanks
You bet 👊
Care to revisit this now that prices have made a new ATH? Only solutions I can see are that it's in a primary 4 correction in an expanded flat or in a primary wave 5.
I have a vid dropping this week. Discord members see it first.
Brilliant video, thank you.
Glad you enjoyed it.
nice video! thank you
Amazing
Thank you! Cheers!
Wow i’m glad I stumbled upon this video. Your explanation of counts makes a lot of sense and you distill it very simply.
One thing stood out to me that you covered, which was the 5,9,13 rule.
I want to make sure I understand, a 9 imply one internal wave is extended, and a 13 wave imply 2 waves are extended ?
I definitely need to do more homework to this rule, and It shed a new way of looking at the waves.
Is this rule in the Frost and Prechter book? Not sure if i’ve seen it before your video.
Thanks for sharing your great EW work.
Correct. 9 is one extension, 13 two, etc. Any impulse may only extend twice. But impulses within impulses may also extend up to twice as well.
Nice work - with the benefit of hindsight (its February 2024 now and the SPX just made 5030) I assume you have an updated video explaining why your count from 2008 onward was wrong. Oh, just saw below that a new video is coming out - nice
One wave degree off. As explained in the vid. Sometimes when you get a cluster together, it can be 2 separate waves, or one larger one.
Thank you@@ChartWizardTrading
Best in the business.
I don’t see the context for a triangle in the 30’s.
A 4th wave of super cycle degree.
Hi thanks that was very informative. Reminds me of the Nikkei in the 80s. Using the same playbook. Do you ever use renko charts to help identify wave counts?
I don’t. Not that they can’t be used. I just don’t personally.
Great video. Awesome explanation of details.
Where were you 2 years ago when I was trying to learn this?
I was here, my discord is almost exactly 2 years old. : )
@@ChartWizardTradinghow can I access your discord boss ?
Have you seen the Glenn Neely count? His long term and intermediate counts have been spot on since his original post in 1988. He has not changed it at all since then. It out did all the other "gurus" like Prechter who thought the Grand Super Cycle top was in the 1980's 😂
I haven't no. Neely does not practice Elliott wave, he has his own system. I've studied it a bit but it is only good for super macro level structures on gigantic indexes. He claims every A wave must be the smallest, which is simply not the case, but it may be on a super macro level. Regardless, this is an Elliott wave video and not NeoWave which is completely different.
Where can I see Glenn's count?
Don't know, I don't practice NeoWave. Ask Glenn.
I quite enjoyed your EW analysis. I do have some critique, though.. The bear market that pursued 1929 which you labelled as a triangle, your wave d moved higher than wave b which invalidates the count as a triangle. Also, in regards to corrections ending in the territory of a wave 4, Prechter specifically mentioned wave 4 of 'one' lesser degree, although I would agree with you that if the high of 1929 was wave 3 that a drop to those levels seems excessive.
Regardless, I have liked and subscribed.
It’s not invalid as a triangle. It’s not a contracting triangle. It’s a barrier triangle. Also, the A wave extreme of the triangle ended perfectly at wave 4 of one lessor degree.
@@ChartWizardTrading While not a lot is listed in the rules about barrier triangles specifically, barrier triangles are supposed to take the form of a flat top or bottom. In other methods of TA, this would be called either an ascending or a descending triangle. In EWP, while not listed in the rules, it does say, and I quote "BARRIER (outer line flat, inner line sloping with large trend)"
This is not to say that you're wrong, just that I wouldn't personally count it this way unless all other counts were exhausted.
Thanks.
What an incredibly sexy voice you have Boss… thx for the EW analysis too!
You’re welcome 😳
Fascinating; best rational explanation of the count since 29 crash.
I know your thing is crypto but I would love to see a count on physical gold.
Does gold offer protection in a downturn?
I’m not just crypto. And yes I have a gold count. My discord subs bought gold on October 4th.
I have one question: what about the rule saying that wave 4 cannot enter into wave 1? is that actually a rule?
Yes it’s a rule, in cash markets and daily timeframes or bigger.
Bro you should check out Robert prectors count.
Pretty sure it’s similar. He has several variations this large published since the 70’s.
So it could go up or down.
Not quite.
Thank you for that Great stuff. After watching the whole Video I immediately subscribed. I am curious Are you midterm (2024/25) bullish or bearish on Bitcoin? Greetings from Austria
Bearish. I have a BTC vid right before this one.
Thank you. Already studied. Fantastic content. Nothing is certain, but do you consider 47-50 K a B-Wafe Top as realistic or more unrealistic? Thank you and Best regards from Austria
No clue. Whenever 5 waves is done. We count it continuously in the discord.
Does the d wave go past the b wave in the wave 4 triangle?
Yes it does, it's a barrier triangle. D is allowed to go past B in a barrier triangle. Slightly.
We could reasonably be done at the January 22 top with the count of 9 but presumably it could still expand to 13?
Correct.
More likely however, if it's not done, that the count ending in January 22 is 1, of a much bigger 5,9 or 13.
But that leaves a very unsatisfying 2.
It's not enough in price or time.
If you look at the spy , rsi peak was 2018 divergence in 5th wave 2019 then expanded flat for the bigger 2?
B wave 500% expansion of A? I'll stick with my count.
@@ChartWizardTrading no, wave 5 Oct 19 then expanded flat for the 2 now 1,2 .. looks good because you have the rsi divergence between 3 and 5 ..
Wish you did this is presentation with a white background
I hate the white background 😆. Good news is you can join the discord, steal my charts, and change the background if you like. 😊
Enjoyed watching your video. One question I have is that you labeled the high from July 19th to October 26th as a possible 5 wave structure.
If you measure the price action from a points perspective, I believe that wave 3 from a price action perspective is slightly shorter than both 1 and 5 as they are labeled. Is that not correct?
Please advise if I misunderstood your labeling.
Again, thanks for your video.
Wave 5 is the shortest, wave 3 is shorter than wave 1. Wave 4 is shorter than wave 2. It’s a contracting diagonal.
But we looking for a new time high by end if ywar with seasonality?
Seasonality smeasonality
Would love an update again so clarify the count in the near term again please!@@ChartWizardTrading
Lots of updates in the discord
What if 2018 was 5 ? Now 1 , 2 , I, ii ??
Press F for doubt.
The retracement from 1929 to 1932 is 86%. Its highly unlike its wave 4.
No it’s not. Wave 4 is about 50%. 29-32 is only an A wave.
What is your response as to why BTC did the complete opposite of your primary count?
Huh? This is an S&P 500 count.
Triangle from 1930s crash isnt valid. The d is above the b
It’s called a barrier triangle. Perfectly valid.
The start point of the triangle is supposed to be horizontal with the B and the D for a barrier triangle
Not true. A barrier triangle has the same characteristics as a contracting triangle except that waves B and D end at essentially the same level with no requirement for B and D to contract. The rules are in the book, I invite you to read them.