Let's Talk Housing Episode 22: Abnormal Spring Market
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 10 มิ.ย. 2024
- This exciting episode entails current market news and updates, the recent Federal Reserve meeting, a breakdown of the abnormal spring market, home insurance, the secondary mortgage market, and much more.
Have questions? We're all ears! Share them in the comments or drop us an email at info@reportsonhousing.com for answers in upcoming episodes.
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Time Stamps:
00:00 Introduction
04:24 Current Market Update
05:51 New Counties Announcement
07:47 Recent Economic Readings
13:01 Abnormal Spring Market
14:37 1980's Article
18:07 Positives In Real Estate
23:03 Major American Metros Prices All Increasing
26:43 Is It Still A Good Time To Buy?
28:22 Home Insurance Still An Issue
30:42 Airbnb Investing Craze
33:18 Freddie Mac Entering Secondary Mortgage Market?
36:34 Did The Low Rates Cause Today's Market?
38:56 Conclusion
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Excellent analysis, gentlemen.
Thanks!!
Great info fellas!
Thanks!
Holly cow, RATEs have nothing to do with with what the realest market is where is its. It home price affordability !!! You can simply look at the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) or even Zillow to see price history to see the +40% home price increase from 2020-2022. This hike was totally artificial as no significant home improvements (i.e. adding additional livable sqaure footage, kitchen/bath remodels, etc). Even the National Association of Realtor stated this +40% between 2020-2022 (recent USA Today article sights this statement from NAR). I'm an all cash owner an I'm not going to buy a house that has such a bogus price uplift. Its going to be a slow painful market correction until the homeowner get their pricing back in line with historical average.
We respectfully disagree. Rates have EVERYTHING to do with home affordability-it is not just high prices. The correction you allude to is not in the near or mid-term horizon. You have to look at supply channels and trends. The trend is for a limited supply. It will be hard for the supply of available homes to rise as long as Millennials are on the sidelines waiting for rates to fall. When rates do come down a bit, as the economy cools, buyer demand will accelerate faster than the number of homeowners that come on. As a result, values will rise further. Stay tuned!
@@ReportsOnHousing Again, the data does not support your perspective. The correction needed is a result of artificially inflated pricing not a result of added value or low interest rates, so its a straight forward correction of bringing home prices back in line with historical trends. Would you be so kind as to point us to the source of data you sight for all the "millennials waiting on the sideline". It would be good to see how many and what their current economic situation is. Have you looked at the recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York sighting record levels of consumer debit and the increasing levels of defaults? Oddly the generation which account for the majority of in trouble borrowers seems to be the very same Millennials you are waiting for. We doubt anyone wants to see a repeat of 2008 which if we recall correctly had a lot to do with lenders giving people loans, at attractive rates, when they really could not afford the home price to begin with. We totally agree with your statement that limited housing inventories is one of if not the most crucial element of our housing crisis, but the 2020-2022 bubble is the here and now issues that has derailed our historical trends. Again we point you to factual data listed in the prior comment (i.e. FRED). We would wager that home sales would more significantly and rapidly increase if home prices were rolled back to the historical price trends (ie.25%-35% decreased) vs maintaining the current home prices trends with mortgage rates at or below 4%.
@@michaelsd284, who said that prices have to fall back within trend given the different supply and demand levels? National inventories are just above 1 million. During the Great Recession and prior it was at 4 million. Normal is 2.5 million. That’s data. There is a new normal, low inventories that will prevent the price reduction to the trend line that you are talking about. Thus, a new trend emerges, expensive housing that will only become more affordable with falling rates. Stay tuned! Time will prove out the correct long term trend line, the old one or the new one.
@@ReportsOnHousing Spoken like a true realtor. Best of luck to you and glad you have this TH-cam side hustle to supplement your income.
I am the chief economist of Reports On Housing and do not represent buyers or sellers. I have a Quantitative Economics and Decision Sciences degree from the University of California, San Diego. I am a housing analyst, which is how I make a living. We are devoted to bringing TRUE, accurate data, the latest evolving trends, demographics, and everything else surrounding housing. We have housing reports for all of SoCal, the Bay Area, Clark County (Vegas), and Maricopa (Phoenix), and we know the housing market inside and out. We do not believe in pushing a narrative like so many other channels. There are plenty of doomers prophesizing a crash in housing who have been wrong for YEARS now. That is only because they do not have an economic background; instead, they have found a platform to promote their negative narratives. Their negativity sells, which is why they can make a living with their videos, even if they have been consistently wrong. We talk about the positives and negatives of the housing market. There have been plenty of cracks, and the market has often been unhealthy. It appears that that is the direction of housing when rates fall, an unhealthy housing market with rising values.
In the fall of 2005, we saw a build-up in inventory and a drop in demand. We knew the market was going to crash and correctly called it. In 2006, the U.S. housing market slowed even more with a further rise in inventory and a drop in demand. There were NO surprises. That's how housing works. Housing is not a commodity traded on Wall Street that can drop instantly. It is slow-moving and leaves plenty of breadcrumbs, trends, and signals. The crash sites have it all wrong and will continue to be wrong for the foreseeable future. The housing stock, all homes across the U.S., is at its healthiest, strongest point in U.S. history. Collectively, homeowners have excellent credit, great jobs, record tappable equity (tap their equity and still have 80% LTV), record equity rich (50%+ equity), record owners who own their homes free and clear, and fixed low rates that are an excellent hedge against rising rents and inflation. Delinquency rates are at historical lows, and BK's are at decade lows. For there to be a significant rise in supply, you need for homeowners to be forced sellers. There are very few forced sellers.
It is all about facts and definitely has nothing to do with name-calling.