Hidden Claim - Jay | Street Epistemology

Jay and David experiment with Hidden Claim SE to explore Jay's confidence in Jay's hidden claim during the Sound Epistemology Adventure Tour. To support the tour, donate here:
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Street Epistemology is a civil way to explore the quality of one’s reasoning.
Street Epistemology is also a movement that encourages our communities to engage in this exercise with each other and with ourselves.
Music - @djbrownnote and Tracy Sayler (guitar)
Hidden Claim:
Recommendations for Hidden Claim SE beyond the normal ones:
Have the person write it down so it doesn’t fluctuate throughout the conversation. We want them to update their conclusions if they feel like it’s warranted, but for the purpose of the exercise, it’s recommended that they stick to it and reflect afterwards.
It sometimes seems to help if the claim is a statement about the world we share. This avoids claims about personal preferences and this step can actually generate a great exploration about objective reality.
It’s recommended that the conclusion is meaningful to them. The more meaningful the topic, the more meaningful the interview is likely to be.
It’s recommended that the conclusion they hold affects their behavior. It’s more impactful that way. I’m not that interested in claims that don’t affect their behavior.
It’s recommended that they form the claim in a positive form to avoid double negatives and confidence scale clarity. Example: “The grass is green.” (positive) instead of “The grass is not red.” (negative)
It’s recommended that the IL is open to changing their mind about it if they find out their reasons/verification methods are insufficient/unreliable to their own standards. This can also generate a great conversation.
I recommend informing them that their claim can be specific but the main reason should be very general. One example might be, instead of quoting a specific scripture in their holy book as their main reason, encourage them to be more general by saying something like, “scripture”.
Make sure to tell them that the idea is not for you to be able to guess the claim. The purpose is for them to reflect on their epistemology. It’s all about them.
Advantages of Hidden Claim:
* It focuses on the IL’s epistemology
* It lowers the likelihood that I insert my views and biases
* The IL understands that I don’t know the claim which allows them to think more openly without the need to get defensive
* It can lower the anxieties of both ILs
* The tendency to bloviate is lower
* It forces the IL to think about the claim, reasons, and epistemology in ways they may not have before
* It’s disarming
* It achieves the goals while avoiding some common pitfalls
* It offers new ideas for SEPs open to improving their SE
* The claim can be kept confidential
* It can be done with many people at once
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Recovering From Religion -
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The Secular Therapy Project -
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The Clergy Project -
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[@SoundEpistemology]

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[@mileskeller5244]

This young man's perspective will greatly change as he gets older. He will go back and watch this 10 years from now.

[@Jedidiahwiebe]

Pretty cool video David. Despite being a predictive claim your skilled use of the method has allowed for creation of a video with soooo much valuable content for others to learn from! What a great video

[@LogicalKip]

"There is no way I can be fooled"
"So, this cryptocurrency I've been buying..."
There are many things that can make us more likely to be fooled. The biggest one is thinking you're immune to it.

[@ChaseAvior]

Your videos should be mandatory viewing for school children.

[@SoundEpistemology]

What a nice compliment! Thanks, Chase. ❤️

[@kib6793]

I think the process would still be valid for prediction claims, it's just that throughout the whole process, he wasn't giving you the REAL main reason. It was only after the process had wrapped up that he finally said "OK, now can I tell you the real reason?" So maybe then it would have been interesting to help him understand that THAT is what you were actually looking for earlier when you were asking for the main reason that, if weren't true, would lower his confidence. To conceal the claim, he could have generalised it to something like an economic analysis.
I thought the other key point was that it sounds like he first came up with rational reasons to support his conclusion, but maybe that only got him to 51% confidence in his mind, and then he used faith to get him to 100%. In the context of "getting rich", it sounds like he may have gotten his way of thinking from Think and Grow Rich, which describes a similar sort of philosophy to The Secret, where the idea is to believe something strongly enough in order to make it a reality. In The Secret, it's described in a woo-woo sort of way where you're connecting to the universe somehow, while in Think and Grow Rich, a more pseudo-scientific explanation is given in which you intentionally feed a belief into your subconscious in order to trigger subconscious habits that would end up making it more likely for the thing to happen than if you hadn't believed it. So it might have been useful to go down the faith line.
I think it's an interesting question as to whether this type of pseudo-scientific faith is justified. I can see in some cases where instilling positive beliefs within yourself might make it more likely for you to be able to pull it off, if the outcome is actually within your control. E.g. someone learning the piano saying "I know I can do it" vs someone who says "This is impossible". However, I don't think Jay can realistically exert any significant control over the outcome of Ripple which he has invested in, and so here, he would be wise to rely less on positive thinking and more on the validity of his analysis about why these outside factors will lead to Ripple succeeding. He needs to do more analysis of the external factors to justify his confidence, not more positive thinking in himself, because the outcome is determined moreso by the external factors.

[@SoundEpistemology]

Thanks for watching and for sharing your thoughts!

[@GenuinelyQurious]

I feel bad for this guys girlfriend if she’s not a Lamborghini

[@LogicalKip]

Get someone to talk about you the way this guy talks about Lamborghinis