Why Earthquakes Are So Hard To Predict
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 มิ.ย. 2024
- Scientists are trying to figure out if they can predict big earthquakes by simulating small quakes in labs and studying big quakes under the ocean. Thanks to the University of Rhode Island for sponsoring this video.
Thanks also to our Patreon patrons / minuteearth and our TH-cam members.
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To learn more, start your googling with these keywords:
Earthquake: A violent shaking of the earth, usually due to movements of tectonic plates under the earth’s crust.
Seismometer: An instrument that detects changes in the up-down motion of the earth.
Seismic body waves: Higher frequency waves released by earthquakes that can move through solid rock.
Seismic surface waves: Lower frequency waves released by earthquakes that move along the ground and cause most damage.
Earthquake Early Warning System: A network of strategically placed seismometers that trigger emergency warning systems in particular areas when they detect large seismic body waves.
Evacuation Clearance Time: The time needed to evacuate a particular population to safety.
Earthquake Precursor: An anomalous event that gives an effective warning of an impending earthquake.
Transform Faults: Faults where two tectonic plates slide past each other.
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Credits (and Twitter handles):
Script Writer: David Goldenberg (@dgoldenberg)
Script Editor, Video Director & Narrator: Alex Reich (@alexhreich)
Video Illustrator: Jesse Agar (@JesseAgarYT)
With Contributions From: Henry Reich, Kate Yoshida, Ever Salazar, Emily Elert, Peter Reich
Music by: Nathaniel Schroeder: / drschroeder
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This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant 1654416. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
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References:
Geller, R. (1997). Earthquake Prediction: A Critical Review. Geophysical Journal International. 131 (425-450). Retrieved from: academic.oup.com/gji/article/...
Wei, M. (2018). Seismic Behavior on Oceanic Transform Faults at the East Pacific Rise. Transform Plate Boundaries and Fracture Zones. Elsevier. Retrieved from: www.elsevier.com/books/transf...
Hsu, Y., and Peeta, S. (2015). Clearance Time Estimation for Incorporating Evacuation Risk in Routing Strategies for Evacuation Operation. Networks and Spatial Economics. 15 (743-764). Retrieved from: link.springer.com/article/10....
Kucken, M. and Newell, A. (2005). Fingerprint Formation. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 235 (71-83). Retrieved from: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1....
Wei, M. (2019). Personal Communication. Graduate School of Oceanography. University of Rhode Island. - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
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Confused by the comments? We always share our videos early with our channel members, but this week we (mistakenly) gave everyone a sneak peek! If you want to see all of our videos early (and help support MinuteEarth), you can click the "JOIN" button to become a member. Thanks!
Hey MinuteEarth
What is this thing and where is the button? And how did people comment on a private video?
Isn't that the "SUBSCRIBE" button? (sorry for overexaggerating)
lmao thanks
IllidanS4 it wasn’t private it was unlisted
For those who are familiar with the metric system:
At 1:45: "But plates are often more than 25 kilometers thick. That's twice as deep as humans have ever dug, so it would be pretty difficult to get monitoring equipment deep enough."
I wonder if they are trying to get a sponsorship from a university in every state in America
Change.org let's get to 50
En LI this video was made 5h ago, and this comment was 24+ h ago!??
+Nooby Noob look at the pinned comment
I think that’s what they’re doing!
Nooby Noob ??? Wdym?? Wha-... huh??
When a predicted earthquake doesn't happen, it's nobody's fault.
actually it’s the crust’s *fault* and the mantel’s *fault*
i get the pun
Ahaha I see what you did there, Therion-sama.
you "cracked" me up
i coudn't come up with that good of a pun so don't make as if it's my "fault"
I vote this as the best comment I read today.
100 years is plenty enough time to realized you don't want to live in the Bay Area :P
Earthquake: Tectonic Faults
You not being successful:Your fault
dang dude y u so personal
Crusades in the Baltics: Teutonic fault
You being mean: Your fault
What happens when a building falls down in San Francisco?
It’s San Andreas' fault.
I kinda don't get it, and kinda get it at the same time.
The Science Biome lol
Bun dun ch!
Could someone please explain this to me? 😅
Arlean Singh I believe that they are trying to say the Sand Andreas is a person in their joke, and a fault is where earthquakes happen (correct me if I’m wrong) but it also could be the result of somebody doing something. San Francisco is on San Andreas fault (biggest fault in California) and when an earth quake hits SF, it’s San Andreas fault.
Hope this helped 🥳🥳🥳😁
I believe all new highrise in Japan must be built with quake-resistant foundation. I've seen such foundation in a museum in Nara once. They're basically giant ball bearings. Counterweights at the top help too, but they are mainly to reduce swaying in the wind.
The dude in the thumbnail has very long legs
Wow. I just realized that
MinuteEarth always ends their videos with such well-written lines (and effective visuals). Much respect.
1:34 That stress violently released, though :)
it look liked they Pooped
I really liked this video, keep up the good work. God bless! Have a nice day/night.
Great video! it summarizes everything that you can find online in just four minutes
I got a 3 minute ad at the beginning and watched it all. I can't afford to be a member, but hope this will help a little :)
The stressed out and relieved plates look adorable
I imagine Quantum Computing will be that breakthrough.
A computer with so much processing power that they may well be able to model the Earth to a degree that makes these predictions possible.
I feel like a week's notice would be nice.
That would be a groundbreaking discovery
I love minute Earth videos! Your all amazing!
I really love this channel))
...And it is so sadly that almost none of my friends can understands English and does not like to read the subtitles...
There is two Channels that says es and fr maybe they are in a different language
I like that the faults smile.
Nice animation.
Do you have a video on that earth shattering breakthrough yet? That'd be nice thanks
Amazing peek into the great ways science will help us predict earthquakes!
I wonder if releasing the energy manually could be an option. Like, preparing the scene to evacuate everyone, proof the buildings, then detonating carefully placed explosives to trigger the quake and be safe for a while. Of course, that would only be attempted near a city after a lot of tests, and I doubt we can put explosives deep enough, however since fracking already does have an incidence on earthquakes, I guess it's within the realm of possibilities to trigger one voluntary.
That's my University!!! I'm absolutely shook!
I wonder if there are any other videos hidden like this👀
Look up "SuspiciousObservers". Ben has been able to predict lots of earthquakes.
I did not expect Rhode Island to be sponsoring earthquake research. Love to see it, though.
"Earth shattering breakthrough". I see what you did there.
Out of this world, thanks so much
What I think would be more helpful is actually converting the various moment-magnitude values into peak-ground acceleration (PGAs) - these values are actually used in earthquake/seismic engineering as a measure of how much force is exerted on buildings. Another one is the shake patterns from an earthquake. If these two are well-documented, it'd be much easier to design future buildings as well as future building codes that would be able to resist earthquakes as we can test them against simulated earthquakes, either with a software or with physical model.
Last animation was awesome 😁😁
CALLE IS GOING DOWN! I'M YELLING, "TIMBER!" XD
XD
The image of two tectonic plates rubbing together and smiling afterwards like they've orgasmed simultaneously is what I'm gonna imagine everytime an earthquake's on the news from now on.
This is the 2nd non-poop related video of 2019
i feel like "this city is going to collapes in the next 2 years" would be enough to make me move out, doesn't have to be more precise than that
I would curious to read about any research around applying "deep learning" to earthquake prediction? Are there any public datasets I could examine? I'm hoping to do a video on my channel about Earthquake data. (Wonderful video!)
You should look up "SuspiciousObservers".
Ben Davidson has predicted lots of earthquakes.
Try to visit facebook page ' Forecasting Earthquakes and the Events - through patterned observations '... maybe it can help you get an idea about earthquake predictions...
Isn't the epicentre at ground level and the focus where the waves spread out from underground? If not then my Geography teacher was wrong.
Why private video guyz? Are you experimenting with how many people have notifications turned on or something?
They are giving Patreon donors the ability to see videos before slobs like me.
damn took long to go public! good stuff though!
we just had an earth quake a few days ago but they were too small to brake anything but u can feel it
1:36. Did...did the plates just....no, no. I can't go there.
1:36 chill face
I love ❤️ this video!
i already have that breakthrough a lot of giant metal staples on the terrain
So earthquakes are just earthfarts
y'know when your arms rub against each other real hard? that's what earthquakes are
@@mss5496 when do arms do that ever???
when you have a piece of clothing stuck to a piece of furniture. that's more common. also you do that thing with your hands to clean them, not arms.
"Plates are often more than 25 km thick".
Yes, but that's a bit understatement for an earthquake.
Up to ~40km depth is 'Shallow focus'
The x-ray tech developed from the piratical accelerators so sensitive they can measure stress in rocks only we use gamma rays and detectors all around the planet with a single active em-miter at a time. Also got to filter out all other gamma rays from space so need a large well timed array of satellites to capture as much activity as possible so we can do post processing on the sensor data to filter it out. The swarm would have to be so big and reach all around the solar system to find all possible sources in our cosmic neighbor hood but I have hope in humanity a little bit.
1:48
Those russian diggers are just gonna have to go back to digging!
Do you know about Omega theory? It seems to be a breakthrough in predicting earthquakes.
"What we need is an earthshattering... breakthrough".
Marvin: "KABOOM! THERE WAS SUPPOSED TO BE AN EARTHSHATTERING KABOOM!"
Wow I didn't realise we knew so little about earthquakes - this earth is so amazing
i have an idea if we plant a sensor in underground place we have a little time to prepare and we have a warning alarm
Can our guys make a video on the purge please
Good vid
Hey in the philipines there was an earthquake like maybe yesterday
If we could predict earthquakes, that'd be a groundbreaking discovery.
1:30 happy faces!
the face the Tectonic plate make me feel like somethings weird is going on.
Why is this video unlisted?
bc it got hit by an eartquake
@@ThinkerYT oh okay
What about gravity perturbations from the displacement of mass?
I like the little fault faces.
Magnetic scanning or sound scanning?
What did the ground say to the earthquake?
You shake me up.
*cricket sounds*
We don't even get Earthquakes in Germany. Well apart from the Laacher See (Lake Laach) in the Eifel-region, which is basically our smaller scaled yellowstone volcano. But the earthquakes rarely even reach a 3 on the Richter scale. (Below 2 meaning it's unnoticable)
I guess the video isn't unlisted anymore.
Wow, this comment is so bad, it's kinda decent
One of those time i'm wondering if i should like that comment.
@@nadeemshaikh7863 thank you for the comment review, your work is very appreciated
@@stardustreverie6880 Yeah, but your e-mail for this account has a typo in it which is sorta killing me so you might as well warm up to it
Master, you are here
true story
when i was in 8th standard, my city decided to do a big drill about earthquake. Basically every office , school public transport like metro had to do it on the same day. so the government can check it's disaster relief preparedness. My friend who i think is very smart asks me whether the government would somehow create a big earthquake. I thought she was joking but she actually believed that an actual earthquake is going to take place.
Scooby got waves!
Hey, why is there ' 1 day ago ' comments on a video that was posted in the last hour?
Rainbows2424 cause it was private
So, you can warn people right before it hits, so they can get out of the buildings, at least. That's a big help. Just can't understand, why in the news they said, that the earthquake was sudden and unexpected all the time.
I liked the last scene.
Because they are the product of intricate dynamics that occur deep inside the Earth's crust, earthquakes are unpredictable. Stress accumulates throughout time as a result of the movement of the tectonic plates, which are enormous sections of the Earth's surface. An earthquake results from the release of this tension. However, because the processes involved are not fully understood, it is extremely difficult to estimate the exact date and location of these events. Although scientists are always trying to enhance monitoring and prediction techniques, it is still very difficult to predict earthquakes with any degree of accuracy.
1:29 Well that is disturbing
Earth shattering breakthrough
For an earthquake, the after effects of infrasteucture damage is worse than the event itself. 2 years window is of TREMENDOUS value. 2 days would provide some valueas well, but it doesn't gibe enough time to sizemically retrofit very much. My guess would be the 2 year window moght be more valuable than the 2 day window.
We need to revive Newton, and sit him under an apple tree so he can solve this for us. Got it.
Hey hey! New Video!!!
1:40 So, earthquakes are the Earth’s equivalent of cracking knuckles?
When an earthquake is predicted to happen, it's already happening at a mild scale.
There is more to it. Look up "SuspiciousObservers". Ben Davidson has predicted lots of earthquakes. There is atmospheric pressure, the phi angle in magnetism from sun to earth, and blot echoes.
@@LeviticusKoenDog Informative👍
0:16 Missed opportunity to use 20XX at least once in there
I don't get why people dislike these kinds of videos. As of right now there are 49 dislikes. Do they hate earthquakes? Do they dislike minute earth? Are they mentally challanged flat earthers? I guess we'll never know.
So not only apple falling someone head can cause them to ponder about gravity and why things fall but also how to detect earthquake? Huh, I'm gonna try that my self and see what great Idea I can come up with.
I got a suggestion for a video How and why chimpanzees and bonobo’s society drift apart and formed differently
The plates are Chill :)
We have week-long warnings for tornadoes...nobody listens to them until the watch is issued.
got me with comedy at the end in a scary topic like
wack
I love you, Alex.
For a second, I thought this was CGP Grey's video.
Shoutout to all of the big earthquakes in Alaska.
1:36 those faces
2:51
Comparison of how hard homeworks to tests
It's easy to predict Earthquakes, just ask Reinhardt when he's gonna Q
Woohoo! URI BABY!
It must be scary living in California. Earthquakes and forest fires and drought.
At least hurricanes usually don't hit California directly.
@@VitalVampyr true
Why do your hands move when you walk?
I wonder why everyone says this video is private? 😕
My face when I’m gassy: 1:35
My face after a good fart: 1:39
I got the notification 1 day later. Why!?
Nice
maybe seometime we will be able to foreshadow it by a month or so^^
Why leave town? I mean, most buildings are sturdy enough to resist the earthquake, and the 2 minute window time is enough to leave the building.