Tesla’s Elon Musk Makes 2 STUNNING Predictions
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 มิ.ย. 2024
- In this episode of Cyber Bulls, we dive into Elon Musk's recent hype about Tesla's future. He’s talking about a $24 trillion valuation and tons of robotaxis by 2034. We've got industry pros Alexandra Merz, Jeff Lutz, and Matt Smith to break down if Musk's optimism is realistic given the current market and tech challenges. We look at what this means for Tesla's stock and the chances of hitting those autonomous driving goals.
Elon Optimism
TSLA shift
Morgan Stanley Bot Forecast
Robotaxi 8/8
Rimac, Rivian
Cyber Bulls E96
The Bulls:
Herbert @herbertong
Alexandra @TeslaBoomerMama
Jeff @thejefflutz
Xander @R6Alex
Matt @MatchasmMatt
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Author is invested in multiple Humanoid companies and is long TSLA and other stocks at time of original video publish date.
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Herbert
1oo mill robotaxis in 9 years??????!! that is 11 million per year! Am I the only one who can basic calculatuion? what is wrong with you americans !
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Again Jeff is spot on. It’s the time horizon.
Wall Street has a 90 day horizon while Elon and most of us retail investors have a much longer time horizon.
Thank you Jeff, with just a few words you clarify my muddled thinking.
Yeah,Its like with Ark,Always 5 years and again 5years and.....hahaha!:)
Herbert, you consistently have the very best panel discussions regarding Tesla. I hope you continue to see a LOT of subscriber growth. Thank you for an ongoing "Job well done!".
Sooooo aligned with Jeff on Rimac/VW joke
Thanks Team. Another great session.
Another reminder. Tesla "FSD compute" is much larger than the compute to train a single version of FSD. Tesla "FSD compute" is much larger than the compute necessary to train FSD for each hardware version (HW3, HW4, up coming HW5) and for each vehicle (Model 3, Model S, Model Y, Model X, Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, NextGen, vehicles from other manufacturers, ... extraplanetary vehicles).
Tesla "FSD compute" includes:
1. FSD data acquisition compute
2. FSD data labeling compute
3. FSD data rendering in 4D compute
4. FSD 2D and 4D data compression compute
5. FSD data storage compute
6. FSD data retrieval and decompression compute
7. FSD data mapping and optimization for training compute
8. FSD HARDWARE AND VEHICLE SPECIFIC TRAINING compute
9. FSD validation compute
10. Realtime monitoring of FSD training compute
11. Tesla real-time, real-world geomapping data acquisition, compression, and storage compute
12. Tesla real world predictive compute
13. Tesla generative FSD data compute (AI generated FSD data to use in training)
14. Shadow mode testing design, generation, and validation.
15. Analysis of training data, shadow mode data, and generative data
16. Optimus subtask optimization compute
17. Optimus task to subtask optimization compute
18. Optimus edge case identification and processing compute
19. In vehicle (wheeled and bipedal) networks optimization and conflict handling
20. End-to-end system modeling for all vehicles and validation using real world and generated data
21. Robotaxi request, dispatch, and ride monitoring AI compute
--- AND MORE ---
XX. AI DEVELOPMENT TO CONTROL, MAINTAIN, AND OPTIMIZE ALL OF THESE PROCESSES! This compute is likely to become the heart of "FSD compute". This is where Tesla AI is likely to achieve real world AGI, not in the task specific FSD AI in the vehicles.
I think Herbert could be right about new cars moving the stock first because that is what analysts want to see!
Jeff is as always, amazing. Thanks, Herbert.
I would so love it if Tesla now sues the shareholder with 9 shares for the cost of this suit to Tesla over the years.
Appreciate Matt's assessment of Rivian CEO not being amenable to solving the vexing cost problems. Look at Elon's commitment on the M3 sleeping on the floor of the factory and being all in in solving the cost and production issues. He is head and shoulders over any other CEO in working on the major problems.
Love Jeff Lutz,'s insights. Thanks
Keep pumping Herbert you are bound to strike gold eventually.
So, there is this once reputable company that gets space contracts galore. Billions…Then came a new space company made from scratch whose CEO has been mocked and even had his shoes spit on. Some years later this new company somehow was able to land a rocket on a fricken raft in the middle of the ocean. Now this company has 80% of the space launches and has reinvented the whole industry. Well, surprise; this same man is also reinventing the crusty automobile industry. I am sticking with this person as he is once in a century type of person and I am proud to be backing him. I like our odds. Don’t you? If you think his accomplishments aren’t real watch a SpaceX launch or watch a Model S smoking a Bugatti. Come on people. This is reality, not smoke and mirrors….klp
Once in a century. Yes. Not generational. Once in a century.
I believe SpaceX is actually launching 95% of total payload from Earth this year. I find it astounding that so many people can't see this progress that is actually happening right in front of them. No matter what breakthrough feats any of Elon's companies turn into reality, there is a large chorus of naysayers who don't have the knowledge or ability to accomplish anything themselves, but who are apparently knowledgable enough to explain to you why it will never work.
it's desperation to try fuel something into the Share price, it's not confidence.
Great panel!! Keep it up !! Us small retail shareholders rely on your great info and positive vibes to boost our confidence through these times where the stock seems to be going nowhere
Countersue... 👍 Us investors and Elon ougut to be compensated for being so traumatized all these months.
You guys are too funny! Love the humor and respectful disagreements. Keep up the respect.
"Why ah you tha host, you alwayst wrohng..."😂
Shots fired. Merz chose violence!
Robotaxi can be your own car, if you want to get in the back seat and fall asleep after getting blasted at the club, engage Robotaxi and it will drive you home and you don't get a DWI.
What if all the Uber drivers that own Tesla's can shift from Uber to the Tesla Network to keep more money? This would be an instant segue from Supervised driving to FSD with people already in the taxi business. Just a thought.
If my Tesla stock goes 10x then I can finally buy my dream car - Models S plaid. I would guess there are many stock holders who hope to buy their first Tesla. This economic would be a whole new pending market of buyers
You dont need all this Shit,Just become a Monk!Free yourself from worthless trash!
You guys are awesome. Thanks
30:07 Herbert is outnumbered and outmatch by all the logic 😂
Only disconnect- Wallstreet speaks Money and Tesla speaks groundbreaking innovation. Only when Wall Street can understand, then we see swings!
Most people just cannot comprehend what Tesla is about to do.
Great show...entertaining and informative... thanks guys!
I'm with Herbert. The most important thing to do now is the robo taxi reveal and set expectations. Maybe, Tesla will eventually open up the robotaxi software and app to the existing models. But, setting expectations is what needs to be done and a physical robotaxi must be introduced whether in a reveal or the concept.
Herbert elegantly orchestrates a convergence of corporate experience, economics, analysis, finance and projections. 😊
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How can i reach her, if you don't mind me asking?
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Well her name is 'ABBY JOSEPH COHEN SERVICES'. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Great episode with interesting topics to discuss.
Jeff makes so much sense
Jeff is right… my FSD programed to take me home, it has taken me to different addresses different drive ways … and sometimes up the drive - of my condo building. Lots more training required. FSD hands driving back to me in heavy rain - with a bright red steering wheel warning! Thats not going to work with a Robo Cab. 🤔🙏😊
Herbert is right!!!! The only thing that will move the stock significantly and fast is the new $25k car.
All other components are long term and still speculative.
We will surprised by the imminent availability. Really surprised. And the profit margin.
The additional CyberBulls are awesome. Great job. @BrighterwithHerbert
With due respect to all experts of various fields. In my opinion the greatest catalyst that will send the stock price ballistic will be 2 or 3 back to back high revenues and profit quarters which should happen as early as 9 to 12 months from now, thanks to Mega pack Chinese production, plus higher CT delivery numbers and Semi. But also greatly aided by further development in the Robotaxi, AI FSD possible first deal with a major OEM that will start a stampede exactly as on the super chargers deals.
Great show!
Herbert... you are not shy about forwarding an unpopular theory. I'll give you that! I agree with you saying the RoboTaxi main focus doesn't NEED to be on squeezing out more efficiency than a modern 4-seat EV. There is just too much evidence that the design IS a 2-seater.
Thanks
😂 excellent close out !
That was a fun episode. 😂
100 million robotaxis in 10 years is nonsense. They can't even start the factory until FSD is on the verge of approval. Then a year to build the factory, and another year just to reach volume production. By then the decade is about over. And we still don't know the cost to use it, therefore we don't know the adoption rate. If the cost of a ride isn't the same or slightly higher than ownership, then people won't use it.
Also, if they're going to start with supervised robotaxi rides, how do they differentiate from Uber? If someone owns a Tesla and is already driving for Uber, what incentive do they have to switch to driving for Tesla? And what incentive does a passenger have to switch from an Uber ride to a Tesla ride? Is Tesla going to undercut Uber on fare price?
Yup, you're definitely in control Herbert. Ruling with a velvet fist in a velvet glove 🤣🤣
Good to see such high spirits.We musn't forget energy too.Whilst of course much smaller profit-wise than FSD, let alone the Bot, it's likely to be bigger than cars and is growing at a much faster rate than cars.It's also much less complicated and as long as battery supplies are there ,easier to scale I would have thought,than cars.
Love the lightheartedness of this episode ❤😂
@108:00 I disagree with it being a 4 seater initially, simply because Tesla has already produced these and this will be the incentive for owners to join the network and avoid osbourne effect on near future sales. Later when the concept is fully adopted and 4 sester will come out with everything Herbert describes.
As an all-in TSLA long, love this channel. FSD will excite when robotaxis are in real-world operation. The Bot will excite when videos show dozens of them doing meaningful work. More affordable car would definitely ignite the stock. But, we won't find out about the affordable car until it is ready to deliver.
London cab is modular. They have two seats but you can fold down additional seating. I think Tesla would execute that modularity in a more beautiful way than a London cab but still something that can be adapted for 2 or 4 riders.
Every CEO has a fiduciary responsibility to protect their shareholders and therefore they should leave Delaware.
Have other companies had significant problems because they operate out of Delaware? Or is this just a judge with a 'Tesla problem'?
@@bobwallace9753 either way
A London cab is a 5 seater, 3 forward facing and 2 pull down seats rear facing. Weight = money , so it will be a 2 seater for the 90% of cases for ride hailing, they can utilise their other line ups for 3+ until the van come outs
In the US, 3’s company, 4’s a crowd.
Yes. Make the fleet about 80% 2 seaters, with the rest mostly a mixture of Model 3, Cybertruck, and their eventual van.
The 2 seaters will handle most use cases. A larger vehicle can always be substituted if there is just 1 or 2 passengers - so keep some extra in circulation to always have sufficient capacity on call.
The CT can handle up to 5 passengers plus a good deal of cargo. The new van in passenger and cargo configurations can handle the rest. Both the CT and the van can also be outfitted with equipment to deal with handicapped passengers as required.
Between them there are very few non-commercial use cases that are not covered.
Also, as far as the London cab model goes - the CT accomplishes the same goals. Up to five passengers plus a lot more cargo, and also a tight turn radius (though not _quite_ as tight and accomplished by different means). A smaller version of the CT would be a more direct comparison.
I wonder if picking up a used model 3 for the Tesla taxi network as a second car is a good idea?
Love you guys!!😂
I agree with Herbert, a London Cab.
Excellent work guys really interesting 😎
Herbert is in fact usually wrong. Love ya Herb
Here in denmark you can go and pickup a tesla with only the tesla app and try it out for 1 hour. This could be the way they will start 🙂
Thanks again to TBM for all her work on the shareholder vote, you will always have my gratitude 🙏
Thank you 🙏
@@TESLABoomerMamaAlways - glad to see you back on Tesla Bulls too!
Intuitively, Herbert has the right take on the supervised Robo taxi concept.
I agree with his reasoning, and add to that, long-time Tesla owners are not Uber drivers by nature.
Tesla doesn’t want to identify itself with newcomer opportunists
The render of the cyber cab looks very uncomfortable to get in and out of. It doesn’t even look all that comfortable to sit in. I think Herbert is more correct, it’s going to be a comfortable car, slightly larger design than the sub compact 2 seater concept. Don’t forget many of these will be deployed to airports and will need reasonable space for luggage. Others will need space for shopping or groceries.
Oh Look Look sooooo nice Its the Cyberbulls again,and what a suprice they are very bullish about Tesla again!Mindblowing:)
With robotaxi, IMHO, there will come a tipping point where ALL cars needeed to have FSD to drive due to the fact that FSD can "talk" to each other. It will take some time of course. Will I live long enough to see that day? Only time will tell.
Absolutely that's my thinking. Car communication brings the accident rate closing in on zero.
I Don't think it will be a high vehicle, like Herb thinks (1:07:26). Because it will ruin efficiency.
If you build a high vehicle, it will be heavier because of construction. The area will increase (more drag), so you’ll need more batteries. Which also makes it heavier. Thus costly.
Experience will come from comfy seats, big screens, a good audio system, a good ride and a perfect app for hailing.
Where is the Robotaxi charging center? What happens when Robotaxi has pax and needs charging before drop off?
Unlike a conventional cab, with robotaxis the company will know the destination before a customer gets into the car.
Therefore unless you intend to be going to a distant city they just won't send a car unless it has enough charge.
Herbert (the host as Alexandra stated) is wrong about the cybercab size. Remember, the bigger the vehicle, the heavier, the less efficient, meaning more costs. etc etc.
2 seater == less mass == smaller battery == more cybercabs for given battery production capacity
To prevent the Osborn effect as much as possible, I believe the Austin multi story parking lot will be locked off from visibility while the factory builds up a large stock of the new small car model before announcing it
It is easy to hide tens of thousands of iPhones.
How do you plan to conceal hundreds of vehicles.
@@MikeCasey311 The size of that parking lot is the third largest in the USA
preferred shares sounds good ... Optimus look quicker ... robotaxis will be maybe next later next year or maybe ? later ... wait and see ....
I’m sticking with Herbert. 4 seaters London boxy design. Elon said its a utilitarian car. Just listen to what Elon says and you cannot go wrong
Alexandra is right you test the cars and have FSD do the driving and get the customer comfortable with it also.
Thank you, Mark. Herbert, are you reading this? "Alexandra is right ...", lol
If FSD was L4 Herbert would be right, but that will not happen close enough to 8/8. So that leaves using the existing fleet of owner cars with a driver in the seat.
So, the CyberCab can’t be deployed until FSD achieve L4, like where Waymo is today.
The question is what will move the stock higher the soonest. IMO the international investor buying the stock will move the stock higher. The initiations as Gary Black says cannot put a number on Bits or FSD because they have nothing to compare it to. But a new cheaper car they can put numbers to as cars and EVs already exist. So it has to be a new small cheaper car then FSD as it goes into operation. Then numbers can be calculated. Lastly the bot because it will take a year or two before they can come up with data on sales.
They'll probably do FSD Supervised-that-doesn't-need-to-be-supervised for at least a month before officially FSD unsupervised.
Cybercab, 25k model and roadster, does are the cars under the sheets.
Vertical integration confounds licensing deals... Rivian is more of a catalogue builder so likely a bit easier to integrate their software... But the vendors will eat their lunch.
Alexandra, there’s a silver lining to every cloud…
You have resurrected true shareholder sentiment, and obliterated a decade of media negativity.
These are the essential introductory pages of Elon‘s new book
❤
Going from two seats to four seats shouldn't add much energy cost. An increase in capital cost will be unimportant. Assume moving to four seats adds $2k to the cost of the vehicle and it has a 500k mile useful life.
$2,000 / 500,000 miles = $0.004/mile.
Going with four seats means that the robo would be more functional for actual ridesharing. Offer a lower rate if someone is willing to share the ride. For example, offer half cost rates and make more money if you can average more than two riders per mile.
Herbert is wrong about Tesla not starting the ride hail app without FSD. Have to bata test the app and build a customer base.
$TSLA: 10-15x in 5 + 5x in 10 = 50-75x in 15.
Herbert might be riight about that Tesla won't have human drivers in their Robotaxi network.
But Uber might have FSD in Robotaxi mode with a human driver for a while.
Tesla and Uber should do the conversion to Robotaxi together, while Uber converts itself into a Robotaxi company, so it survives.
That means Tesla won't take all the profit, like they would if it did Robotaxi by themselves. But it would spread much faster, and in an incremental way.
Everything else I agree with Alexandra
20:29 If Tesla offers ride share capabilities (supervised) for existing Tesla owners, that will no doubt increase the FSD take rate because they will be incentivized by the ability to make an income. Take rate will jump and Tesla can realize revenue over night. That will spike the stock price.
I think the new affordable car will be a low trim of the three and Y. Didn’t they already say that they would make the car on the same line as the 3 and Y?
I agree with Herbert you guys are thinking conventional there will not be any trunk. You can bring your luggage in with you. Lots of space it’s s not going be like a regular car.
If you need cargo space you call a CT or other vehicle with room for cargo.
Is anyone talking about the 'pre-ride' economy where your ride hailing app can pre-order products to collect before you receive your ride. Eg I want food of my choice to be in my robotaxi when it arrives to pick me up. Saves me time having to do a detour.
I’m with Herbert. Low cost vehicle is next. Their current bottleneck is validating the FSD model. They need more miles bHow do you fix that - more cars. Also, what does Elon say about time to ramp a factory? They need the low cost factory going so it can ramp, then they iterate it again in India or China.
Cyber taxi should be a 2 seater as that meets 90% of the demand. But all Tesla cars can be built as an addition to the taxi fleet, you want a 4-5 seater taxi we send you a 3, a Y or even a Cyber Truck, at a premium. Or you have the BnB fleet again std cars but with a wheel and pedals with steering wheel and pedals which are disabled with software while in use as a taxi. The van will also be a minibus (based on a CT base structure with a different body) , group taxi option.
To say that FSD is fully trained, is to imply that it can’t be improved.
Training will be ongoing forever.
But, at some point it will be better than the human driver.
FSD V12.3.6 is never distracted and is already a better driver than I am, except for a few edge cases.
You must not be a very good driver
@@darylfoster6133 you must pay attention 💯 of the time and never distracted.
I think Jeff Lutz and Matt Smith nailed it with Elon's five and ten year thinking.
If I can add a little riff on three or four ideas:
1. Exponential growth (real world equivalent of compound interest)
2. In five or ten year time frame (long enough one really sees impact of exponential)
3. Total Addressable Market (TAM).
4. Sustainability / resource constraints
In biology, cell division allows populations to grow at exponential rates and there is the phenomenon
of overshoot when the population (yeast, fish, bears or humans) exceeds the resources. That's why there is the focus on the logistic curve (S-curve) with a maximum near the TAM. You don't want to overshoot the long term TAM, but one wants to get there as fast as production and consumer adoption (in a disrupted market) allow.
For a good while now, I haven't cared at all about Tesla's car sales. But I will care about Robotaxi production figures, from the next year or so.
That and Optimus.
But people still want to own cars, for some reason, so I think Tesla should continue selling them, even if it isn't their main focus anymore.
Why?
8/8 will be more of a demo of the App. They may show a cyber cab concept car. They may tie the app into a human supervised program in a very limited area.
Tesla needs a low cost 2.5 car to continue growing while it waits for FSD and Optimus. Elon is usually late and I don’t expect either FSD or Optimus to be ready in 2025.
2026 Is Nvidia moment for TSLA.
Cyber cabs will use slotted seats to BLOW filtered high presure air into the CLOSED cab between rides with a suction system in the floor directing dirt into catch bags. The LED kights will use UV mode while "cleaning" to sanitize the interior. Cleaning between rides will take seconds, not minutes. Destination = "all out" clean "all in". All rides will be from and to ONE destination, unlike a cab or bus, to facilitate cleaning.
I don't know that they will use exactly such a system, but those are certainly some good ideas.
If they use "switchable" or "smart" glass in all the windows they could safely use UV sanitizing without affecting anyone outside the vehicle, though perhaps UV blocking glass would be sufficient in itself.
1hr 12mins - London Cabs are 4 or 5 seaters....aren't they???
They would have to assume they get to a 10 million annual car production. Or they are projecting a n agreement with others to reach this level.
That means GigaMexico and others as discussed last year.
I have heard reviews that seem to minimize that need. The in between car models are meant to accelerate production and better prepare for the new factories
Remac is building a two hundred million euro factory right now.
Did anyone else notice FSD 12.3.6 visualization stopped showing trash bins on the curb ? It no longer shows orange traffic cones. It misses speed limit signs. I’ve seen it set the speed limit to 50 nearly every time I passed a Hwy 50 sign in Missouri. Does Tesla have a bug reporting app ? These things need to be addressed. Hoping for 12.4.x to fix these.
robotaxi will be in a limited scope , like this boullevard and that street. Let s say San Fransisco until it does it perfectly and then they expand streets and make the scope bigger slowly.
Tesla needs to launch robotaxi with drivers just like cruise and waymo. This would allow Tesla to recruit vehicles, whitelist and blacklist areas where the robotaxi should and shouldn’t drive. You can’t just launch a robotaxi network with no initial supervision.
If Tesla only makes 2 seaters for Cybercabs. Tesla owners will have to provide the vehicles for larger ride shares.
Even if it’s only a 1 trillion opportunity. If you look at Nvidia’s market cap based on their small revenue. Tesla stock can still sky rocket. If Tesla can get to Microsoft yearly revenue. That’s all that matters for 6Xing
They are calling Robo Taxi network "Auto" - I think Elon said it...
Maravilha conhecimento e vida