Divan's Alloy: The Drop Chance Investigation (Hypixel Skyblock News)
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 12 พ.ค. 2024
- Literally nothing is correct with this drop.
Official Wiki: wiki.hypixel.net/Divan%27s_Alloy
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Thank you Faux72, Ninjune, Malworthy, & Stuffy for information important to this video.
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IGN: Derailious
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As an update from the Wiki:
Editor's Note: We're currently investigating the Divan's Alloy drop rate, and we're aiming to clear any confusion caused by the information provided. Please check back at a later date for a more clear explanation. If you find any confusing, missing or incorrect information please file a bug report and we will fix it as soon as possible.
Hey im not 100% sure but im pretty sure that the “once per loot bundle” means at MAX you can have 1 awarded, like if its rolled you cant get another, but it still rolls for it in every slot, which would fit both wording and math with the studies
Nah this is WRONG it just because the data has set samples size of 5k runs per hour. There no way of know how many runs are done per hour and and it is also would not be statically improbable that on the main server that the number of runs per hour be the same from hour to hour. That is why the graphs display differently. One graph is a set number of 5k.
The number of server wide run per hour. 💀
@@xxknickxx1952 You do realize that any number chosen would have the same proportion right? Because its based off of the amount of time since the previous alloy was dropped? It couldve been 1,000 runs. 1,000,000 runs per hour. It doesn’t match reality.
Please don’t make comments if you don’t know what you’re talking about
@@xxknickxx1952 you just don't know how statistics work, please don't wrongly accuse people on a subject you're entirely unfamiliar with.
@@Derailiousis it worth doing nucleus runs for alloy right now? Or is it better to mine or do kuudra then buy the alloy?
Don’t worry guys it will still take me 800,000 runs to get alloy.
ROADSTAR!
Bruh out of the thousands of hours you have playing this game you have not dropped one? I know you Ironman but still kinda not cool. All jokes aside just do the damn runs and make a video it’s been long enough.
Do 50 runs/10 video, if you do none at all you wont get any
@@BleepyBloopy772 the top Ironman in runs has about 1263 with no alloy drop, 2nd and 3rd have both dropped and alloy
trust me just do exactly 73 runs
finally a video on this, I was actually so confused when i kept seeing the coleweight timer shoot down to 0 after an hour because "How could someone get it that quickly it's a 1/800,000"
There is something seriously wrong with skyblock "RNG". The api it's going of from is rather suspicious. I don't think it's long untill people are able to predict and manipulate some parts of skyblock RNG.
I once had a Crystal Hollows Lobby where 4 People got Claw, so it could be
int random = new Random().nextInt(800000);
if (random==5678) {
//add alloy to loot bundle
}
lmaoo
There is a video someone made months ago on the fact that the rng is very weird when using the draconic sacrifice, we all know how messed up it is.
@@CU9_what’s the name?
@@CU9_ something like that right
Were making it out of 655 with this one
😂
Ironman progress 🙏🏽
I first noticed this by looking at alloys on the ah using cowlection, many of them were dropped less than 1 hour apart in the same day. A speculation broke among our group of nucleus runners that this might all be fake, so we began testing it out with our calculations bringing the alloy chance to ~1/500 per run. We all dropped at least one alloy.
It's the guy that beaten every normal level!!!!
@@RandomBloonStuffits the guy who just wants to comment and have a NORMAL life
Can you believe that it’s that much lower. IMAGINE HOW EXPENSIVE IT WOULD ACTUALY BE IF IT WAS A ONE IN EIGHT THOUSAND.
You drop an alloy and suddenly your new is the total of everyone elses
I can't believe how much of the official information is wrong in this case.
I think it was true but then admins changed it to individual rngmeter-ish
It's also very silly seeing the fandom wiki being better updated at times
Can you make a video about skyblock RNG? I noticed some things, like Corleonite drops don't seem to be random
@@lpmatthews7387went to look at carrolyn to remind myself of everything you can give her recently to find the official wiki only listing exported carrots, the fandom came in clutch lol
I've noticed that the offical hypixel wiki is TERRIBLE. It either says basically nothing, or it's just wrong. Very strange.
I always found it really missleading how they said that it is rolled once per loot bundle, and figured that they meand that you can only obtain one per loot bundle, but it rolls for each "slot". The chances not really resetting, or not working properly at least, I wasn't expecting. It always felt wrong that this kind of system was in place, but there is no way of checking when the last alloy was dropped without external tools, and ofc, a RNG Meter would be great for it. 620 runs, still nothing :v
in 2021 they have buffed the drop chance after realizing no one is dropping any. You can find the patch notes saying "20% drop chance increase" but in reality they have reworked the 800/80/8k system entirely because they have realized how miserable it was (qlloys were going for an integer limit for a couple of weeks after CH update dropped).
The "obtaining method" that made it to official wiki was outdated form the start due to of lack of proper communication/documentation between devs/wiki editors.
I feel like when the official wiki was released, a lot of the info was really copied from the fandom wiki. Some things like the drop chances for stuff were added because they were more relevant in the wiki editors's opinions. But at first the official wiki was more lacking in many aspects compared to the fandom wiki.
And the official wiki writers are actually mostly just players too. Even though the wiki editors have access to many hidden statistics in skyblock, they only write about things that cross their mind. No writer bothered to check a lot of things for a long time.
Idk if Divan alloy was accessible for them to check though. I'm pretty sure originally the patch notes gave the official drop chance info, but people weren't really able to test the validity when the update was new.
Also what convinced me the alloy was a lot more common is that there were roughly an equal amount of them and quick claws, in auction house which have a similar drop chance per roll.
fandom didnt have that info until official has released
If the model does use a binomial distribution, it assumes that everyone has an equal chance at dropping an alloy which may not be true. If we are going by the once per role being the actual mechanic of the drop, then some people will have the perk from the diamond essence shop which gives them an extra role. The new mole pet should also be taken into account, which would be a bit of a night mare because unlike the essence perk which is Discrete data (you either have it or you don't), the pets perk give you a chance at an extra drop (which may or may not include alloy in the role) based off the pets current level. This, if the case, would probably shift the data to say that the allow drop is even more common than what it appears as. I’m not sure if each nucleus run gives the same amount of bundle drops (roles for the alloy) at base with no buffs.
I believe the binomial distribution tests were done with 17 and 19 rolls, which probably means that it's both the "minimum loot count" and "maximum loot count" tests
There was a bug when mole got released so that every roll could drop alloy, and insane alloy number of alloys was dropped so admins fixed it in 20 mins - so option of "multiple rolls per run" is out.
Now something you must understand:
"Welcome to the official Hypixel SkyBlock Wiki! This is a Hypixel-led, community-maintained Wiki for Hypixel SkyBlock. "
This is first thing you see on main page of wiki. Hypixel-led COMMUNITY MAINTINED wiki, admins are NOT the ones giving the information - players are. To confirm this? At same page you have "Interested in helping improve the Wiki? Please report any missing or incorrect information you may find." why would admins need any help for information correction, they make the rates? They don't, but community players that edit it do. Main wiki is NOT confirmed information.
I don't think the admins would need help in terms of information correction, however it's possible there is an error within their code, or simply the wiki is not accurate (which is what I talked about in the video)
With your first statement, yeah that's entirely possible. It could just be a vastly different drop chance than 1/8000. That was just a reasonable guess that Faux provided me. (One that I personally believed to be accurate)
I mean project alloy is nothing new, it happened long time ago and admins gave it no notice + as i said there was mole pet bug, so admins _did_ look into the alloy code at least then, so if there was a bug they would've fixed it. I got alloy on my 204th run _after_ the mole incident, so i can confirm that rates aren't changed at all - or even better proof with coleweight's alloy tracker you will often see 2-3 alloys dropped within 1h of eachother.
This is of course just my outlook on the things, which i believe strongly in as I still fail to debunk it.
I know you stated wiki could be incorrect - that is actually what I aimed to confirm. Hypixel itself says it's hypixel-led community maintained, and if we look at divan's alloy page on both fandom and main wiki, they are pretty simiraly written - even trivia has some rephrased but same things.
All data on the official wiki is supplied by admins.
Wiki is developed by members of skyblock nerds which are people who beta test and help admins finding bugs. All wiki info is supported directly by admins
Source: my brother is in skyblock nerds
Hasn't 1 of nerds abused taming update to get billions of coins? Yeah I'm not sure I trust them.
And even if info is supplied by admins, it doesn't mean admins just didn't share some info, or nerds decided to post false one.@@PremNair-pi8vo
With this information in mind there’s yet another reason to give the Crystal Loot Bundle an RNG meter or some other kind of pity filter. I think the Frozen Corpses should also have one because of the shattered locket (50m for a 0.74% chance just ain’t it)
Pray for me yall im at 1000+ And i still havent gotten an alloy 😭😭
799,000 to go
so with all this, what is your opinion on trying to grind out an alloy. it's been stated that by 1k, most people have one, however there are several comments saying about 2k, 3k before their first. are they just having extremely bad rng, or is everyone who dropped an alloy just lucky?
i'm only asking because alloy is one of the last mining related things i have to do on my ironman, and don't know whether it's worth grinding it out. i don't want to do 2k runs grinding every part myself just to never get one because it's actually 1/8k.
Yea this makes sense. I was wondering why players with like 20 runs kept getting Alloys on "1/800.000" chance (according on CW) in my CH lobbys...
i think this is bc a lot of the official wiki data was just brought over from the unofficial wiki, assuming that the data were correct, without confirmation from admins
makes you wonder what else they've completely bungled
the amount of Exp share cores dropped (compared to drop chance) vs the amount of Warden hearts:
scatha drops not being affected by looting:
@@thedawner6311 i dropped 2 exp share cores within 1 hour yesterday within a couple hundred mobs killed lol
Berserker's bloodlust passive was completely upside down for months when dungeons was released (only giving the bonuses when you weren't fighting for 5 seconds instead of shortly after a kill)
My coop dropped alloy on first run 2 years ago, i was blown away by how lucky he was
Some patterns ive seen is that most people get scathas way below odds and mole is not the same chance as ammonite. 11 helix fossils 0 claws
A while ago i mentioned that i dropped an alloy under 20 nucleus comps which was absolutely insane for me
That alloy helped me so much in progression and i wouldnt be where i am now without it (probably)
Divans alloy time??? I need to drop one at some point
I am fairly certain the enchanting table 1% chance to get a ultra rare book is rolled multiple times too
Honestly whenever I see the coleweight alloy timer go past like 3 1/2 hours I get tempted to do a nucleus run cuz it seems like an alloy is dropped ever 3-4 hours usually
Editor's Note: We're currently investigating the Divan's Alloy drop rate, and we're aiming to clear any confusion caused by the information provided. Please check back at a later date for a more clear explanation. If you find any confusing, missing or incorrect information please file a bug report and we will fix it as soon as possible.
next to investigate? I feel as though the rates for the dragon essence salvage (80% or better to get frags?) is waaay off, I get bricked with just essence at least half of the time and no frags/residue/eyes returned let alone a claw or horn. Out of a sample size of 50 some young drag boots I was returned 2 ritual essence on a 10% chance and nothing else but frags. THE NUMBERS MASON HELP
Got my alloy on my 52nd run under 1hr from last drop. Someone else Ik got theirs in their mid 80 runs. Idk how long from last drop but it did make me question what the wiki said lol
Can't wait for next vid : "Everything wrong in the Wiki"
Just wait until he finds out abt the dungeon lootpool😭🙏
if any of those guys want more data, ive done 1200 nuc runs and have a list of all my drops from before the essence shop update
my first ever nucleus run i dropped an alloy. I had no idea just how rare that was...
I literllay knew this for over 1 year. I was #1 in nucleus runs and I am #3 right now.
Yesterday after over 3000 runs I finally dropped my first alloy
This is such a Confirmation for me. I told people this for sooooooo long
Damn my statistics class finally comes in handy
Can someone explain the graph at 3:50? Where does this this formula come from? Seems to be the sum of binomial distributions with increasing number of trials, but what happened to the choose function? And what does the sum of the distributions even represent? Sorry if I'm being dumb xD
Idk but he's a marketing student iirc so we can trust him
Yeah definitely. Thats the sum of the chance to have dropped an alloy on that specific trial, and not having dropped the alloy on any of the previous trials. IE after 3 runs, for the 4th run you have the chance of having dropped it on run 1,2,3,4 for an alloy having been dropped in general.
that’s crazy
@dea Nah this is WRONG it just because the data has set samples size of 5k runs per hour. There no way of know how many runs are done per hour and and it is also would not be statically improbable that on the main server that the number of runs per hour be the same from hour to hour. That is why the graphs display differently. One graph is a set number of 5k.
The number of server wide run per hour. 💀
so from your math, i still need 700 more runs till 1000 and have high chance to get alloy, which is around 490m worth of materials (with mole pet)
Because when coding drop rates, we cant just do 70%. When dealing with large loot pools we use weight. And sometimes even I cant be bothered to calculate the drop chance of stuff lol
Doesn’t surprise me I dropped an alloy 3 weeks ago and I know that someone dropped one an hour earlier.
if they change the chance to the global and inceasing 1/800k+only once per bundle alloys will be worth like 10bil each
Welp I originally wasn't going to try and drop one and just buy one. Guess I might just try and grind for one instead. Thanks for the info. Very interesting for sure though
If the official wiki is made by the Admins with the actual code for everything, wouldn't it be better to provide that to the wiki writers? Because there will ALWAYS be old and new informations mixed together in some of the items' post.
Dropped 3 alloys within 270 runs, 2 of them were 3 runs apart
As someone who did obtained the alloy when doing 50 runs cuz I wanted the SB xp and thought the mole pet was the perfect Opportunity it’s still really pretty bullshit to obtain cuz ngl 50 runs of this shit got me so drained out hell when I obtained the alloy I didn’t even notice in chat until I look at people starting to say GG so it must be incredibly boring to do so much runs
That explains why I got an alloy on my 7th nucleus run
One thing wrong in this video is that your name is not dorelus
captions moment
ALLOY! [MVP+] zelphw just found a Divan's Alloy!
about the moles pets perk Blind as a Mole Gain a 1-100% chance for Professor Robot to ask for 1 less part. is it like random or if you already have 5 out of the 6 parts in your inventory it will just automatically ask for specifically those 5 parts or will it still ask for any of the parts but instead of needing all 6 you only need 5/6?
im fairly certain it's entirely random
@@Derailious ok so that is why robotron parts are still so expensive. I thought that if you had 5/6 parts in ypur inventory the game would just choose those, but ig not. That would have made nucleus runs a bit cheaper
@@pvz_gamesHe asks for 6 but lets you pass with 5 ( it's not random, yes the runs are cheaper)
@@malutkioskar46 oh ok thx. Btw why are robotron reflectors still 250k shouldn't they be at the same price as the others since they are technically not requiered to do the nucleus runs. Yes ik you need the pet but it isn't that expensive
@@pvz_games because reflectors are still used for forge recipes
This is so sad, almost 1200 runs with no alloy :(
I dropped my alloy like 3 minutes after someone in the same lobby as me dropped theirs.
I got one at Hotm 6 like 3 months ago
btw, hotm tree powder costs are also wrong Xd
My main takeaway from this video was actually realizing the chance is global (if that’s even the case). I always interpreted it as a per lobby chance 💀
3:21 is there a reason for the table to skip sometimes 20 minute intervals? it goes from 0-20 to 40-60
Although I very much so want to believe this data because the idea of a global drop chance always felt like the worst mechanic in the game, would be nice for the data to be 100% accurate for reference later, hoping these are just typos
The Table is just using a scale of 20, so it is indeed moving in 20 minute intervals.
so you never answered, wipe or let it crust?
Finally
I had always felt that alloy wasn't being rolled once per slot, due to how common it was. People had always told me global drop chance also being broken would explain how the odds were even lower than just rolling in every slot, but I was never fully convinced until now.
I just hope they don't fix this. It's actually genuinely great for ironmen right now, and would still take so much effort to get one as is. Going back to global and one roll would mean the average ironman never sees a divan's drill. Which while it's not required, even by museum's standards, it would still be nice to have.
good to know.
Are you saying it’s possible to get more then one alloy from a run
No
So just average skyblock things? So many things not work in this game or are "bugged" its crazy.
The moment a dude got a cyclamen dye, something that should take multiple lifetimes of killing mooshroom cows, on his 62nd kill or smthng solidified my theory that magic find, pet luck or any other thing that buffes the so called random drop chance doesn't actually work and its just completely broken.
I think the 2nd part was supossed to mean, that u cant get 2 alloys in 1 run, so u cant roll it more than once per run. It still rolls 14-20 times, just if you wouldve been lucky enough to get 2 alloy rolls it would just drop 1.
I don’t really think that was the implication, but I suppose it could be up to interpretation.
@@Derailious if its actually that, the sentence is definately very confusing, but it may be what they actually coded, cuz ive never seen 2 alloys in 1 run
@@Derailious Yeah this was the implication, it rolls and then gets capped to 1.
still cant believe i got 2 alloys in 25 runs, 12 runs on my fresh account got me 1 claw and 1 alloy and 13 runs on my main ironman got me 1 alloy and 2 jades
me and my coop dropped 2 alloys within 24h, for both of us we only were in our 20's in numbers of runs :p
I thought it rolled for every item and not just once a run
Wonder what else is wrong, with tons of rng items with a very low drop chance there is a possibility several items are wrong
Are you sure the math is correct? Changing the sample size of 5,000 runs per hour should absolutely have an effect on how the distribution looks. For example, if there were 500,000 runs in the first hour, it's inevitable that it would consistently drop very early on. On the flip side, if you had only 10 runs per hour, it would take hours or even days until they would tend to drop.
This is true for very large or very small numbers, but anywhere from ~500-~50,000 runs will have a similar distribution. It's highly unlikely that 500,000 (or 10) runs happening in an hour would be normal based on current player counts.
also (this was just posted on the wiki): Editor's Note: We're currently investigating the Divan's Alloy drop rate, and we're aiming to clear any confusion caused by the information provided. Please check back at a later date for a more clear explanation. If you find any confusing, missing or incorrect information please file a bug report and we will fix it as soon as possible.
Seems like they may have ditched it for a 1/400 chance. That or people just tend to give up after the ones they do for skyblock xp and just buy one off the people that lucked out.
W vid 👍
it resets to 1/800000 resets after someone gets it on the 1/8000 thats why it looks like more people get it near the front because its almost always at 1/800000
wiki states that when 1 alloy drops, the rate resets. so it's not always going to 1/8000, as in if 1 gets it at any other rate than 1/8000, the global rate resets to 1/800000.
@@iannalemme and that's why it shows more people getting alloys at 1/800000
tbh the drop rates were really suspicious since most people who got alloy report dropping it at around 500 runs and even best nucleus runners with +2-4k runs apparently have 4-6 alloys
The rank 1 nucleus guy dropped 6 with like 6.5k runs
As someone who dropped alloy on my first ever run, i see it as a huge dub.
i always thinks probability as 50-50 either you get it or not
Going to go ahead and say that on the official wiki, the original Alloy page was written by Pigicial, stating that the Alloy can be rolled multiple times in a run, but thats been changed by a user thats been *banned* from the wiki into the information that we have today, aka it only rolls once per bundle. (You can look at this yourself using page history)
Pigicial's statement: "Hypothetically, if the player got 20 rolls in the Crystal Nucleus Loot Bundle and the global drop chance was as low as it could be, the player would have a 0.0025% chance to drop a Divan's Alloy."
deactivated user's change: "The alloy is rolled once per loot bundle, as opposed to other items being rolled 14-20 times."
The so called "Deactivated user" was banned by TorWolf for an indefinite amount of time on July 2023.
I mean theres never been any clip or screenshot of anyone ever getting more than one alloy in a run so I believe its rolled once
I mean this is all theoretical. With the amount of total nucleus runs that have ever been done, we would know if it was rolled more than once if someone has ever got 2 or more from one run
Not literally rolling multiple alloys, but having multiple chances to roll a single alloy per run.
27th run i got an alloy
Dam, placebo moment
Make sure to get foraging 60!!
Got alloy on second run so i say it's 50/50
makes you wonder what else is wrong
Time to actually do nucleus runs now that I know it’s not 1 in 8000
Everything you said is true i dropped 4 alloys and 2 of them in under 2 hours after the last one, that's not possible with the chances in the wiki lol (i have 1.6k runs)
inb4 admins patch it, and alloy becomes comedically expensive for no reason
Delarious don't pretend you understood all that.
It's quite annoying that the official wiki is just flat out wrong on some things.
Another example of this is how Trophy Fish with the same percentage roll. Wiki says they roll in alphabetical order, but thats not true, it's actually in reverse alphabetical order. This never really mattered for normal gameplay but became noticeable on Stranded mode as multiple trophy fish are often rolled at once.
Wow
I really wish you had consulted me on this. I did make a spreadsheet but the conclusion you’re coming to is unproven and in fact there is data to suggest global drop rate does exist and just functions differently to how we think.
I'm basing this off of what Faux messaged me in my discord and he told me to mention you in crediting. His information was pretty rock solid based off the evidence he specifically provided.
While yes the conclusion I came to is unproven, it's significantly more likely than what's currently on the wiki, which just seems to be objectively wrong. I do mention that aspect of it in the video.
Would love to discuss further on this, though.
@@Derailious there are other theories that better explain what’s going on, such as the drop rate not instantly resetting when you drop an alloy
@@Stuffyerface That’s interesting. I don’t really understand the game design logic of it operating on a delay, but it’s interesting if true!
I just finished taking my AP stats class this school year, was thrown off by a statistical analysis video in my recommended
They should make a divans corpse
Still not foraging
As a person who dropped the alloy first run, RNG is not real.
wait that means that an alloy is more common than all of the flawless gemstones drops LMAO
so technically this is good news right? Way more alloys been dropping instead of as predicted which is fine with me lmao
RNG Meter Divan Alloy when
yeah generally this means there has been more alloys than the wiki implies.
Hope they dont fix this, only the wiki not change in game, just like u said
Surprisingly the wiki is wrong in multiple areas. The Key Guardian is listed to only drop 1 key when killed but in the bestiary and game you can get anywhere from 1 to 2 keys per key guardian
This is just cuz of magic find ig , it does drop 1 with 100% chance and mf does increases its odd to 2 or 3 depending of ur mf : 200 mf = 3 key with 100% chance , and 201 mf = u have a 1% chance to get 4. I think it does work like that , but u need to try to find out
isnt that to do with looting though if the key is a 100% drop chance surely looting increases it to 140% for example?
@toluro if I'm correct magic find only boosts drops to a 5% chance. I swear I heard it some where. It's why corelonite isn't affect by magic find. It's a base 25% chance if I'm correct.
@harmlessgamer5752 I don't think so, I won't mind being proven wrong though. I'll test it next time I see a key guardian. But I think the bestiary says between 1 key and 2 keys can drop.
This is due to Looting and happens with quite a few items. Its the same reason Grim Reaper sea creatures sometimes drop 2 soul fragments.
One hour after watching this, I dropped an alloy. What are the odds lol
the devs practically hate their game not surprising
As an ex-alloy grinder, I've always thought the drop chances were complete horseshit. You'd see so many people get it under 10 or even 100 runs, meanwhile you're way over 1,000 and still no luck.
(took me 2752 runs to get mine but hey, what do I know lol)
The fact that it should take around $8,000 runs just for going by default probability to get a Devon alloy is dumb you have to complete the crystal hollows 8,000 times for your chance to be statistically probable. You would not catch me completing a fucking island anywhere else to get one drop that I probably need more than just one of